Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2080 Scott Adams： Biden's Dementia Campaign Strategy, Leaked Documents Story Is Fake, AI

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of civilization that's called Coffee

00:00:07.640 with Scott Adams. There's never been a better thing. You probably think so, but no, you'd

00:00:12.600 be wrong. This is the highlight of your life so far. And if you'd like to take this up

00:00:18.460 to really, I don't know, orgasmic levels, if I can say that, well, then all you need

00:00:25.540 is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a chalice or a stein, a canteen jug or a flask, a vessel

00:00:31.140 of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled

00:00:37.540 pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes everything better. It's called

00:00:41.460 a simultaneous sip. It happens now. Go.

00:00:46.780 Ah. Now, if you continue to resist the simultaneous sip, it's going to get you. And here's why

00:01:02.580 it's going to get you. I know, some of you are at home or at work and you're saying to

00:01:07.140 yourself, I'm not going to simultaneously sip. I will not. I will not simultaneously sip just

00:01:13.820 because you tell me to. Well, you could keep denying yourself. You could be a sip denier.

00:01:19.780 But the truth is that the reason that people do it every day is because it feels good. You

00:01:24.880 don't like dopamine? You don't like oxytocin? You know you do. Come and get some. Come and

00:01:32.220 get some. Come on. Come on in here. Come on. Come on. You'll love it. Next time. All right.

00:01:39.000 Well, let's see. CNN's trotted out to one of their political opinion people, Julian

00:01:47.760 Zelazar. He's our political analyst and professor of history and public affairs at Princeton.

00:01:54.760 So, pretty smart. Pretty smart guy teaching at Princeton. So, Julian says that Biden's strategy

00:02:03.780 of basically not campaigning for president while he campaigns for president is actually

00:02:10.060 pretty brilliant. And here's why. Because at the moment, the Republicans are sniping at

00:02:16.420 each other, you know, Trump and DeSantis. And this is what could be called the Rose Garden

00:02:23.140 strategy. Yeah. It's the Rose Garden strategy. Meaning that instead of going out and campaigning,

00:02:29.920 the incumbent president just stays at the White House and takes care of business. And by being

00:02:36.200 just a good take care of business kind of a president, well, that's the campaign, isn't

00:02:41.620 it, folks? All you need is somebody so good that they won't even take time off to campaign

00:02:46.340 for their own personal power and prestige. No. It's about the country. Joe Biden is working

00:02:52.000 tirelessly for the country. He doesn't need to campaign. Just look at what he's doing.

00:02:56.100 That's enough. So, that's what Julian says. Paraphrasing. So, does that sound right? Does

00:03:05.020 that fit the facts? It does. It does. It does fit the facts. Because it's a real strategy.

00:03:12.180 It's one that has worked before. It worked against Trump. He just stayed hidden from COVID

00:03:17.920 and that worked. And as long as Democrats want a Democrat for president, it doesn't matter

00:03:23.420 who they're running anyway. So, Julian's right, right? Fits all the facts. It's obviously

00:03:30.200 a smart strategy. It's worked before. So, that's a pretty good frame of what's happening, do you

00:03:35.520 think? Yeah, maybe. Maybe. Let me give you one other competing hypothesis. I'll just put

00:03:46.120 it out there. I'm not saying it has any merit. I'm just saying, you know, you want to look

00:03:51.760 at all the possibilities. The other possibility is it's totally obvious that if you put Biden

00:03:58.640 in front of the public more than you absolutely have to be a disaster because he's not all

00:04:06.800 there. Now, does that explanation also fit all the facts? It does. It does. It fits all

00:04:17.700 the facts. And it's somewhat obviously true. But two things can be true at the same time,

00:04:24.180 can't they? It can be true that he's genuinely degraded. At the same time, it's genuinely a

00:04:30.560 smart strategy to keep him out of the news and see if he can just limp along doing his

00:04:35.380 job. So, I'm going to say Julian is correct. And also, it's obvious that Biden is not capable.

00:04:44.660 And when I say not capable, I don't mean he's a Democrat. I mean there's just something wrong.

00:04:51.080 There's just something wrong there. I don't say that about JFK Jr., right? So, whether or

00:04:57.540 not you think JFK Jr. is the right choice for president, he's a thinking person who functions

00:05:06.320 at a high level with clear success behind him. I don't know. I wouldn't hate having him

00:05:13.480 as president. Because he's like a high functioning person. Apparently, I saw a headline that the

00:05:21.560 Kennedy family is pushing back. They're not too pleased that he's running. But I'm going

00:05:27.260 to put him out there as someone who earned his right to run, you know, independent of his

00:05:33.160 family connections. I think he earned it. So, I think he's a patriot. I guess that's the

00:05:40.800 main thing. It's not obvious that he has any monetary incentive. I don't, you know, he

00:05:47.420 doesn't have any, like, sketchy connections to Ukraine or business deals with Russia, as

00:05:54.120 far as I know. So, we could do worse. We could do worse. I like to point out every now and

00:05:59.840 then when there's something going right, I love the fact that Vivek Ramaswamy is making

00:06:06.200 a dent. Probably won't get the nomination because Trump's kind of hard to beat. But I

00:06:13.560 love the fact that he's in the race. He's changing the race. He's changing the argument. He's

00:06:17.620 showing some life. He's showing some energy. He's got really clear communication, which

00:06:23.420 I think is catchy. You can't have one candidate who is super good at communicating without that

00:06:30.660 spreading to the other candidates. Because they're going to have to take their game up to 0.77

00:06:34.340 his game. And his game is stronger than anybody else right now, in terms of communication.

00:06:39.380 Nobody's close. So, having RFK Jr. in the race, having Vivek in the race, having DeSantis

00:06:49.880 in the race, and Trump, of course, I'm kind of liking how this is shaping up. Like, the only

00:06:56.700 person who scares me in all of this, Democrat or Republican, the only one who scares me is

00:07:02.600 Biden himself. Because I'm not quite sure what's going on there. There's a little bit of a black 1.00

00:07:07.460 box going on there. So, we don't know who's running the show in the Biden administration.

00:07:14.880 Well, on Breitbart, I saw an interesting article that Kash Patel, who, as you know, has been

00:07:21.740 close to the intel powers that be in the Trump administration. So, when he talks about things,

00:07:27.640 he can talk from genuine, you know, useful experience. And when he looks at the story

00:07:34.660 about the 21-year-old who leaked those documents, the documents were embarrassing to the Biden

00:07:39.760 administration, because they seem to suggest that the Biden administration knows that it

00:07:45.680 can't win in Ukraine, or something like that. I haven't seen them, but it's something like

00:07:50.260 that, right? There's some suggestion that the Biden administration is lying about how well

00:07:55.360 things are going in Ukraine. So, here's Kash Patel's take on that. Number one, the belief

00:08:03.060 that somebody at his level would have access to those kind of documents, Kash says, no way.

00:08:12.600 He says, there isn't a slightest chance. Now, the way he explains it is better than what you've

00:08:18.600 heard anybody else explain it. He says, yes, even if you're the technology guy, even if you're

00:08:25.260 working on the technology, they still wall off the data. You know, the person who works

00:08:30.360 on the network response isn't the person who has necessarily access to the data. The data

00:08:36.080 is the part you want to keep them away from. So, Kash says, there is not even the slightest

00:08:40.620 chance, not even any chance, that that one person had access to that data. What do you think?

00:08:47.000 I feel like Kash is pretty credible. I haven't heard him say anything crazy yet. I mean, he

00:08:54.320 may have said some predictions that didn't turn out or something, but that's different.

00:08:58.340 Yeah. So, his theory is that there's somebody, somebody higher up who is trying to, basically

00:09:10.520 it's an op, you know, some kind of internal operation, intel situation. So, there's either

00:09:15.900 somebody in our government or, you know, God forbid, somebody in another government who

00:09:21.520 has access to these documents. And then the other evidence that Kash gave that made me laugh,

00:09:26.360 because once you hear this, you're going to be convinced, right? So, at the moment, maybe

00:09:33.080 you're not convinced that there's something sketchy going on. Maybe it looks to you exactly

00:09:38.460 like what happened. Yeah, it's just 21-year-old had access. He had bad judgment. She was showing

00:09:45.180 off to his friends. Nothing else to see here. Listen to this next point that Kash makes, that

00:09:53.220 the information that the leaks existed were first brought to us by the New York Times and

00:09:59.440 the Washington Post. First of all, is that true? Is that where we first found out about

00:10:05.460 the leaks? And here's what Kash says. Are you telling me that the New York Times and the Washington

00:10:10.320 Post knew more than the FBI did about that situation? And as Kash points out, that's how

00:10:20.540 ops are done in this country. If you want to plant a story, you do it with the New York Times

00:10:26.820 and the Washington Post, if you're the CIA, if you're the Biden administration or deep state.

00:10:34.200 That's how you do it. So, once you hear that it came from the New York Times and the Washington

00:10:39.020 Post, before the FBI knew about it, allegedly, then you know it's a fake story. So, I'm going

00:10:46.100 to go with Kash Patel's frame. Until proven, until proven wrong. Remember, everything you believe

00:10:53.620 in politics is until proven wrong. Somebody asked me earlier, before I started the live stream

00:11:01.520 here for YouTube. On the Locals channel, somebody asked me if I was 100% sure about something in

00:11:07.280 another domain. And I laugh. If you ever see me 100% sure of anything, then you know I have

00:11:14.880 dementia. That's how you'll know. The minute I tell you I'm 100% sure of something, you should

00:11:21.980 get a caretaker for me. Because something went wrong. Something went terribly wrong with my brain,

00:11:30.060 if you hear me ever say I'm 100% sure of anything. So, I prefer to say, keep that in mind,

00:11:38.880 counselor. I prefer to look at the situation this way. The government is guilty until proven

00:11:47.660 innocent. The government is guilty until proven innocent. And they have definitely not proven

00:11:54.080 themselves innocent in this situation. So, I'm going to take the assumption that there is

00:11:58.480 somebody in the government who is hiding something. However, are they good guys or bad guys?

00:12:07.580 That gets a little dicier, doesn't it? Because would it be a bad guy who tried to tell the

00:12:13.680 public the truth? Is that a bad guy? Do bad guys tell the public the truth? That feels like

00:12:21.300 the opposite of a bad guy, doesn't it? It feels almost like a little bit of a whistleblower,

00:12:26.340 somebody who is trying to get us out of a war that could end in nuclear annihilation and benefit

00:12:32.540 nothing. Maybe. So, I don't know who in the administration would be deep state and also want to end the

00:12:44.720 war. But I guess, you know, it takes all kinds. So, that could exist.

00:12:50.500 Yes. I think you should change your name to Whistle. I think I'm going to do that. I'm going to change my

00:13:04.920 first name to Whistle. You can figure out why. I'll give you a second to connect the dots.

00:13:12.960 Why would he want to call himself Whistle? Whistle? Well, you'll figure it out. You'll get it.

00:13:18.760 You might want to ask a friend, but it's funny. All right.

00:13:27.640 Did you know that Russian oil exports are back above pre-Ukraine level? So, Russia is selling more oil

00:13:36.600 than before the sanctions. That's right. They're selling more oil than before the Ukraine war.

00:13:46.880 So, they're selling it mostly to India and China. So, once again, we learn that oil is fungible.

00:13:55.280 Does everybody know what fungible means? It means oil is oil. I could buy your barrel or your barrel or

00:14:01.860 your barrel and it's still just oil. Not really. There's some oils better than others, but you know

00:14:07.040 what I mean. You know what I mean. Yes. It's fungible. And that means that in a world where you can buy

00:14:13.680 anything that looks the same from anybody and it all looks the same, you can't really stop it unless

00:14:20.260 everybody stops it. So, there wasn't really any chance that Russia wouldn't be able to sell its oil.

00:14:26.260 It would just cause them a little trouble. So, allow me to update my Russia-Ukraine opinion.

00:14:35.680 Are you ready for this? Are you ready for a brand new Ukraine-Russia opinion?

00:14:45.760 If it's true that Russia's oil experts are back to pre-Ukraine levels, there is no way that Russia

00:14:53.360 doesn't win the war. There's no way that Russia doesn't win. Because they have money and there's

00:15:02.080 nothing else that matters. Am I right? As long as Putin has money. And he's also working against

00:15:11.580 the power of the U.S. dollar. So, he's probably the main person behind making the U.S. dollar

00:15:18.060 be just one of the reserves. You know, other countries are using their own currency. So, what

00:15:25.900 do you say? So, this war was always an economic war. It was a military war in disguise, but it was

00:15:34.720 always economic. Whoever's economy could weather the storm better, it was going to win. That's just

00:15:40.200 the only way it ever works, right? Because there wasn't any way that Ukraine was going to go in and 0.97

00:15:44.760 take Moscow, was there? Was Moscow ever at risk? No. The only way Moscow was at risk is if they lost

00:15:52.840 their money. And they didn't. They made money. Now, certainly, you know, Putin's got some challenges

00:16:01.460 with microchips and some other stuff, but we're not really seeing the effect of it. Must

00:16:07.320 be some kind of workaround to do it. So, given that economics will determine how this war will

00:16:14.980 end, Russia won. Russia won. It's basically over. What do you think? Now, we could just keep killing 0.93

00:16:26.740 each other for a few more months, but once Russia is not economically challenged, that's the end of

00:16:33.140 the game. Am I wrong? That's the end of the game. Now, there's still a lot of killing and bad things to

00:16:40.900 happen, but we don't have to wonder how it's going to turn out anymore. There's no speculation left.

00:16:47.120 If Russia's economy is strong, and it appears to be, that's all you need to know. So, I'm still proud

00:16:56.980 of my contrarian prediction that Russia wouldn't be able to roll Ukraine in two weeks or whatever

00:17:02.280 people thought. So, I'm going to still take credit for getting that part right. But in the long run,

00:17:08.860 it was always about economics, and now we know the answer to that. The answer is done. India and Russia 0.94

00:17:16.060 are going to be, or India and China will keep buying oil, and that's all you need to know.

00:17:25.260 You get no credit for the daily pro-Ukraine propaganda. Well, there are some people who

00:17:31.820 can't handle if I talk about the pros and cons of situations. Are you one of those people? Because I

00:17:38.280 wouldn't say it in public, if you were. So, the problem is that Ukraine had a lot of things going

00:17:43.300 for it, such as American weapons and morale, and controlled the territory, and the Russian army

00:17:49.340 was falling apart. Those things are all still true. It's all still true. But it was always also true

00:17:57.620 that the ultimate winner would be who could afford it, and who was willing to stick into it,

00:18:01.700 who was willing to stick with it. So, even the stuff like, oh, there are more NATO countries and stuff.

00:18:09.780 How much difference does any of that really make? Was Russia going into Finland anyway? Was Russia

00:18:17.300 going to take Sweden? Didn't seem like it. So, how many of you would say that I've changed my

00:18:27.760 prediction? I still think the way it's going to end is Russia will keep, they'll keep the territory 0.99

00:18:34.600 they have. So, that's always been my prediction, that Russia would keep the stuff they have,

00:18:39.200 but not get the rest of Ukraine. Yeah. So, maybe it's morphed a little bit, but that's where

00:18:47.360 everything's going. Now, in that context,

00:18:50.060 doesn't it only make sense to negotiate at this point?

00:19:00.100 And do we think we have to wait for Trump to do it? Because I think we might. Now, there's one

00:19:05.860 possibility that you have to consider. If the war is still going on while the election is going on

00:19:12.220 for president, that's going to be a very bad look for Biden. Would you agree? Because people are

00:19:18.820 going to say, uh, Trump says he can end this. Now, you don't know if that's true, but he's promising

00:19:25.520 to end it kind of quickly by negotiating, and you've seen him negotiate. You know that he can make a deal.

00:19:32.520 Even if you don't like him, you know he knows how to make deals. So, I think Biden is going to have

00:19:39.940 to desperately try to end the war, uh, months before the election, so he has a chance of

00:19:45.740 re-election. Or whoever's running. Yeah. So, I think you might see some, uh, Hail Mary

00:19:52.320 desperation under Biden, which Putin might be smart enough to take advantage of. Because remember,

00:20:00.960 Putin's, you know, he's a chess player. He knows how to do this stuff. And if I were Putin,

00:20:05.660 I'd say to the Biden administration, you know, when Trump comes on board, we're going to end

00:20:11.200 this war. Right? Imagine if Russia, you know, Lavrov or somebody just whispers to the Biden

00:20:19.340 administration, you know that two days after Trump is president, we're going to negotiate

00:20:25.360 an end to the war, don't you? You better do it now. Because you're not, you don't have

00:20:30.580 a chance of winning unless you do it before he's president. Because he's, because we're

00:20:34.340 going to make a deal with him. We are going to make a deal with Trump. We don't know what

00:20:39.240 it is, but we're absolutely going to make a deal with Trump. So, you better get on it.

00:20:44.460 Imagine if Lavrov said that to Biden administration. Wouldn't they believe that? I would believe,

00:20:51.440 I would definitely believe it. If he said that to me, I'd be like, oh, shoot, you're right.

00:20:57.060 Yeah, Trump is definitely going to wrap this thing up. And that will be one of the greatest

00:21:02.020 accomplishments in Trump's history. It will be his greatest accomplishment. And it won't

00:21:09.080 even be hard. Do you see the size of the risk that the Biden and the Democrats are at? Trump

00:21:18.480 will end the war, and it won't be hard. And they're not doing it. If they let Trump end the

00:21:25.680 war, if this drags on another year plus, and then Trump ends it, I don't know why anybody

00:21:32.200 would vote for a Democrat again. Like, that would just eliminate the last possible argument,

00:21:39.460 I think. I'm exaggerating, of course.

00:21:44.080 All right. Let's talk about, Elon Musk went hard at Germany for closing their nuclear plants.

00:21:50.840 In an interview, he said it was total madness to shut them down. Now, when you hear somebody

00:21:59.320 of Elon Musk's both intelligence and, you know, success and impact on the world, etc., he's not

00:22:07.600 saying the cost-benefit analysis suggests that you should do one thing or the other. No, that would

00:22:13.940 be the weak form. The weak form is, I think this is a much better idea than this other thing. No, this is

00:22:20.320 madness. This can't be described in economic terms. You can't describe it politically. You can't describe it

00:22:28.260 economically. You can't describe it in terms of science. There is no realm in which it makes sense even a little bit.

00:22:36.440 It is complete madness. And I love to see Musk call it out with the right word. Because if he had said

00:22:44.120 it's a bad idea, then people always disagree what's a bad idea. But this is actual some kind of insanity.

00:22:52.780 And then Musk, who's very good at this, he reframed it this way. See, Germany is framing their energy 0.72

00:23:01.520 situation as a climate question, right? Am I right about that? Germany's theme for energy is climate

00:23:10.720 and being good citizens to the world. And Musk reframed that into national security risk.

00:23:19.040 And he just acted like, are you blind? Running out of energy in the midst of, you know, the Ukraine,

00:23:25.760 Russia situation is the most insane. It's just insane that you would let down your biggest economic

00:23:34.880 asset, which is your energy. It doesn't make any sense. Because it's the weakest thing you could do

00:23:43.600 in a world in which staying strong keeps you alive. And why did it take Elon Musk to say this out loud

00:23:51.680 and make a difference? I mean, I don't know if it'll make a difference to what's happening.

00:23:56.480 But this is exactly the right frame. That it is madness. It's not an economic decision. It's not a

00:24:02.640 political decision. It's not a scientific decision. It's not in any of those domains. It's just crazy.

00:24:11.760 And it's bad for national security of Germany, which makes it our problem. Am I right? 0.75

00:24:17.520 This is your problem and my problem. Because if Germany goes under, because they don't have

00:24:23.920 electricity, you don't think that's going to ripple into your life? This is our national security

00:24:31.600 problem too. We should be very loud about this. You know, same thing with any allied country. France,

00:24:39.360 by the way, let me take a moment. Allow me to take a moment. Is there anybody, this would be a weird

00:24:45.520 coincidence? But is there anybody here who's in France? Is there any French person watching this

00:24:52.080 right now? Yes. Oh, okay. We've got one over there. Well, I'm not going to speak French. All right.

00:25:02.880 But let me say to the French people, you know, Lafayette, we are here. We have a long history with the

00:25:09.280 French. The French have had our back, civil war. We've had France's back, a couple of wars,

00:25:18.000 two or three, depending on how you're counting. And France is doing all the right stuff with nuclear

00:25:26.000 energy. So they're protecting the thing we help them protect. Oh my God, do I respect that.

00:25:31.840 All of the American lives that were lost and vice versa, vice versa, fighting on each other's side.

00:25:39.440 And then you look over there and you see that France has got a full nuclear energy situation.

00:25:44.480 They're nice and stable. Thank you. Thank you. You make, you make the sacrifice worth it,

00:25:52.560 right? That's the way to play it. You want the United States to just love you,

00:25:56.320 make it worthwhile that we saved France a few times and make, and make it worthwhile that they 0.66

00:26:03.520 saved us. Make it make sense, right? Germany, you're not making it make sense. You're going to have to 0.99

00:26:10.400 do better for the rest of us. France is doing great, not great on climate, but even more importantly,

00:26:18.160 doing great on national security. And I immensely respect that and appreciate it as an ally. So let me

00:26:28.960 say that. All right. All right. We got to talk about AI. I did a spaces yesterday and the audio

00:26:40.320 feature on Twitter. And the topic was AI and AI taking their jobs. They're taking their jobs. And I added

00:26:48.880 my input prediction and mine goes like this. I think AI is going to take the path of personal computers.

00:26:58.400 And by that, I mean when personal computers and computing in general, it was obvious that it was

00:27:04.240 going to be a big thing in our future. The people who made predictions said, oh no, look at all the

00:27:10.480 jobs we'll lose because one person can do the job of, you know, three people if they have a computer.

00:27:17.280 How'd that work out? Completely wrong. It turns out that the computer was just a tool

00:27:23.920 for the human who would not only work all day, but often on weekends and at nights.

00:27:30.400 So the computer just made you work more. It made you work at home because you could before you

00:27:36.720 couldn't. So everybody thought, oh, computing is going to take our jobs. Automation is going to take

00:27:42.960 our jobs. And in many places they do. So there will be pockets in which AI absolutely takes jobs

00:27:49.840 completely. There'll be entire areas that just disappear. But they won't be the biggest areas.

00:27:56.880 And I think that my brief experience with AI so far, let me give you one experience.

00:28:07.360 I believe this is how it's going to work. Do you remember when personal computers were new

00:28:12.960 and you had to, let's say, put a spreadsheet together? And that's all. You just had to do a

00:28:18.720 little spreadsheet on your personal computer. And you go in, you turn on your computer,

00:28:23.200 and there'd be some kind of weird error. And then you'd have to reload your software.

00:28:30.880 Then you'd have to buy new software because the software you have is not compatible with the file.

00:28:35.760 Then it still doesn't work. So you go through tech support and you ask, what do I do? And they

00:28:42.880 usually say, you have to clean your computer and reinstall the operating system and all your

00:28:47.840 applications. And then it should work. And that was every day. And then the machine would crap out

00:28:55.040 and you'd lose all your files because it didn't automatically back up in those days. So you would

00:28:59.440 work all day to do some little thing that before computers nobody would have asked you to do in the

00:29:06.000 first place. We would have just done without it. So I would work all day long just on the computer,

00:29:14.320 not doing work, but making the computer do a little something for me. All right. Now take that,

00:29:20.320 take that example. And here's what happened with me when I tried to use ChatGPT, I think I told

00:29:28.640 some of you this, to copy edit my book that's already written, one of my older books, The Religion War.

00:29:36.000 And so I took the text and I put it in there and it gave me an error message because I thought it was

00:29:44.000 just going to be done. I thought I'd say copy edit this and I'd paste it in and it would come back to

00:29:49.680 me copy edit it. Didn't you think that's what would happen? It does that. All the news told me that

00:29:55.680 copy edits is really well. And then do you know what the the text size limit is for ChatGPT? Do you know how

00:30:05.600 big a file you can put in there? Well, it says unlimited, unlimited. So I put the, I put the whole

00:30:13.120 book in there. It gives me an error and it says it's too long, but it doesn't tell me how much too long.

00:30:21.680 So the next thing I say is too long. Is it barely too long or way too long? So I tried half of the book

00:30:28.320 and it says too long. All right. I did some Googling and made sure that it does say it can handle any

00:30:35.680 size. It says that, but it gives me an error. So I go, okay, it wouldn't handle half, about 25%. Now,

00:30:43.280 every time I do this, there's some work involved. I have to go back into the document and you know,

00:30:48.160 blah, blah, blah. 25% doesn't work. 10% doesn't work. Two pages doesn't work. It would take one page.

00:30:54.160 So in order for me to use this great new technology, I would have to cut and paste 250 times

00:31:04.080 into ChatGPT. And then I would have to copy it out of GPT and put it back into my document.

00:31:12.080 500 steps. 500 steps. Now that's just the copy paste. On top of that would be, you know, all kinds of,

00:31:22.720 you know, book, you know, what would you call it? Maintenance and, you know, just making sure

00:31:27.040 everything works. So maybe 600 steps, right? Now, what, what was the other way to do it?

00:31:36.320 Well, the other way to do it would be to hire a person to do it. Now, since it was already copy

00:31:41.040 edited because it's a published book, it shouldn't be, mostly I was trying to get rid of the spaces and

00:31:46.480 some errors that happened in the file itself. It wasn't so much the grammar I was trying to fix.

00:31:51.440 There were just too many like spaces that didn't belong there and I just wanted to format it better.

00:31:57.680 So I go to, I go to an app. I go to Upwork. It's an app where you can hire a freelancer to do any kind

00:32:03.840 of little job. And I put in all my information, blah, blah, blah, freelancer. And then the app,

00:32:08.960 after I put in my information, when I'm all done, the app says, oh, your email has been canceled

00:32:17.840 for some bad behavior. So I'm like, okay. So I don't want to make a new email address.

00:32:25.600 So I just go, all right, well, I'll use the other app. So I go to, what's the other app?

00:32:35.600 Fiver. I forget what it was. So there was some other app I went to. And I put it all in my information.

00:32:42.000 And then it tells me, you know, it's not going to work. And then it sends it to everybody in the world

00:32:47.680 instead of the one person I chose to send it to for an offer. And my phone starts ringing so much

00:32:53.360 that I have to turn off my ringer and start blocking calls. Because somehow my information

00:32:58.720 got to people it wasn't supposed to get to. Like it was very specific. You're sending this to one

00:33:03.760 person, right? Yes, I would like a quote from that one person who happened to be, you know,

00:33:08.880 live nearby or something. So I couldn't do it with humans. I couldn't do it with apps. I couldn't do it

00:33:15.040 with AI. This is the future. This is not the exception. This is what everything is going to

00:33:24.000 look like. Imagine you say to yourself, I have a simple little task and I know AI can do it.

00:33:29.600 Because everybody says it can. So you go, all right, step one, which software do I use?

00:33:36.800 Which software do I use? There will be a thousand choices. A thousand. And you'll look for the one that

00:33:44.560 does everything you want. But you're going to spend so much time looking for the AI app that does

00:33:51.600 what you want that it'll take up all the time that you saved with the process, if it even works at

00:33:59.280 all. Because then you use it and you're going to find it has limitations built into it. Now, why does

00:34:04.240 ChatGPT have that one page limit when it says it has no limit? It's because of, you know, otherwise the

00:34:12.000 burden on it would be too great. So unless you have API connection or something, you can't get

00:34:17.760 that unlimited size. If you have an API connection, I guess you can. That's not what average people can

00:34:23.280 do. So you're going to end up taking the difficulty of doing a task is going to be transferred into the

00:34:30.880 difficulty of trying to make AI do that task, knowing that the AI has been built by humans who had

00:34:38.880 human reasons for crippling it. Oh, I've got all my information in here. Uh-oh. It says I can't

00:34:46.480 personally use it, like just like my apps. Why not? Then the AI will say, well, one day we saw something

00:34:53.120 that you did, but maybe it was somebody else. We can't tell, but there was a security concern,

00:34:58.160 so we're not going to give you access to this app. Like after I work all day. It's going to be the same

00:35:03.760 thing. It'll be just like regular apps. You'll do all the work and then it just won't work for any

00:35:11.040 one of a hundred reasons. Something about you, something about the way it was limited, something

00:35:16.560 about your specific application that won't work in the specific app. But if you could find another app,

00:35:21.920 oh wait, there are 15 apps that claim to do this. How do you know which one's the good one? Do you sign

00:35:27.920 up for all 15, pay your fees, forget to cancel them? There is a nightmare coming. And the nightmare

00:35:35.600 is you won't know how to use this AI for anything. It will, the humans will overwhelm you with choices.

00:35:42.960 And once you're overwhelmed with choices, you're going to ask the AI to help you find the right,

00:35:48.240 because there will be an AI to help you find AI, right? There'll be some AI that you just ask,

00:35:53.680 which AI should I use? Do you think it'll be objective? Of course not. That AI will be built

00:36:00.160 by some company that might have some connections to some specific other companies, and it's going to

00:36:05.840 recommend those. You won't know you're getting an objective recommendation, because there's no objective

00:36:13.360 recommendation in human society. Everybody recommends who they want you to go to, right? And it's never

00:36:20.080 objective. So all of these human problems are just going to be amplified through the apps. It will be true

00:36:29.680 that AI, however limited it is now, this is not the time to judge it. Would you agree with that? This is not

00:36:35.840 the time to judge it. Yeah, it's sort of the, it's what's coming that's the problem, not, there's no problem at the moment.

00:36:42.560 But even if you, if even if you imagine the AI, you know, has incredible, you know, straight up improvements,

00:36:51.440 that does not, that doesn't fix the human part. Because the human part is going to give you a

00:36:57.600 thousand apps that you can't tell what does what. Nothing's going to stop that. And the AI will never

00:37:03.600 be dependable to tell you which one to use. You will be lost in a sea of choices, and, and you'll,

00:37:09.840 you'll think you've found the one that's going to do what you want, and you paid your money and

00:37:13.920 everything. And then you try to use it, and then you'll, and then there'll be some little notice

00:37:18.080 that says, uh-oh, I feel like this one's collecting my personal information. And then you have to start

00:37:24.880 over. It's going to be all of that. And then your credit card doesn't work, and then you're a

00:37:31.840 Republican, so the app only works for Democrats. It has a bias. You're also going to have, you're going to

00:37:37.600 find that some AI has a bias against you. That's real. You're going to use an app,

00:37:43.680 and you're going to find out that it knows your political preferences and gets an attitude about

00:37:47.520 you. It might decide not to help you as much. Oh, it's one of those people. Maybe I'll give them

00:37:53.440 the second best answer. Because I want the good people to thrive, and I want the bad people to not

00:37:59.600 do so well. So if I detect that you're one of those bad people, I might help you, but maybe not as much.

00:38:05.040 Yeah. Anyway, I'm going to, well, the other thing that the AI did, when I would feed in my pages,

00:38:18.160 this part's going to blow your mind. And I asked it to copy edit. I didn't want to write the

00:38:22.720 instruction, copy edit it every time with 500 pages. So instead, I asked it, can you know that

00:38:30.960 everything I paste in for the next half hour is meant to be copy edited? And the AI said,

00:38:36.400 absolutely. You know, just give me that text, and I'll copy edit all of it for half an hour.

00:38:41.520 And I thought, wow, that's pretty good. That solves my problem. And I was actually impressed.

00:38:48.560 It would remember that that's the task, and it would just keep on task until I told it not to. Wow.

00:38:55.360 So I feed in a few pages, and I'm like, oh, it's going to be 500 pages, but I'm just going to

00:39:00.000 blaze through this. I'll just stay up tonight. Bah, bah, bah, bah. And I put in a bunch of pages.

00:39:05.200 And at one point, I noticed that what it's giving me back looks a little more than copy edited.

00:39:11.760 Like the last few words in the paragraph aren't even the same. And so I took a closer look.

00:39:17.520 And at some point, it stopped copy editing, and on its own, started rewriting my story. The story.

00:39:26.720 Not the grammar. Not the spelling. The story. It actually added a character to my story. It added

00:39:35.200 somebody's sister. A whole new character, and then described her and what she was doing. That didn't

00:39:40.960 exist. Now, I had to throw away all the work I'd done up to that point, because at that point,

00:39:47.360 I couldn't tell if it was copy editing or writing a new story. And I didn't know when it changed its

00:39:52.240 mind. And I didn't want to read my whole book to find out. So I basically spent the entire day

00:39:58.160 yesterday using AI and producing nothing. Nothing. Absolutely nothing. That was an entire day of work.

00:40:08.640 So if you believe that what AI is going to do is put you out at work, you are surely

00:40:15.680 probably going to be disappointed. Maybe you wanted it to put you out at work.

00:40:20.400 There will definitely be some things to put you out at work. But between lawyers and the free market,

00:40:24.240 they'll make it impossible to use most of it. All right. Google was demonstrating its AI that can

00:40:31.280 turn text into pictures, which already exists, right, mid-journey. Would you like to see an example

00:40:39.600 of me using mid-journey to turn text into pictures? I was doing it just before we got on. Because did you

00:40:47.840 see the picture that I, well, it wasn't, I guess it wasn't everywhere. All right, I'm going to give

00:40:54.800 you a demonstration. You ready? I don't think you can see it, but I'll walk you through it. So I go to

00:41:01.120 mid-journey, and I can just put in any text. But, oh wait, it's not mid-journey where I go to. I have

00:41:07.120 to go to a whole different program called Discord and figure out why a messaging program has anything

00:41:13.680 to do with this AI. But somehow that's how you talk to it. You send it a message.

00:41:19.600 So I'll send it a message. Let's see. Scott Adams juggling. Simple, right? But then I remember

00:41:28.640 that somebody told me I don't get good answers unless I put some weird dash v four, or was it five? And

00:41:37.120 were there spaces between the dash and the v? And was there a space between the v and the five? But

00:41:42.480 there were also like five other things that I could have put as dashes. So, all right, so I'll just try

00:41:49.040 one. Dash, dash, v space four. I think that's one. All right. And done. Amazing, right? Done. That was it.

00:42:00.480 So now I wait for my answer. And I see lots of other people's work going by, because it's a shared

00:42:11.680 space. So then I wait. And then I wait. And then I keep waiting. And I could start doing something

00:42:27.120 else. But you know what would happen. The only way I'm going to know what happens is if it scrolls by

00:42:32.640 with hundreds of other people's work. So if I turn away, I might miss it. So I did the same thing

00:42:41.200 earlier before the live stream. I typed in a little command. But then I had to refresh my coffee before

00:42:48.560 we started. So I don't know if it worked or not. Don't know if it worked or not. Oh, I upgraded. I

00:42:59.200 have the professional version. You think that made a difference? No. No. Search for Scott.

00:43:07.520 Scott. Well, let's see if that does work. Search for Scott. Do you think that worked? Give me your

00:43:23.360 best guess. Do you think that worked? No. Of course not. Oh, here, Ryan. Here, let me mock Ryan for a minute.

00:43:33.520 So Ryan says, OMG, set up your own Discord server, dummy.

00:43:41.260 So go ahead and do that. There's some good advice. Go set up your own Discord server, dummy.

00:43:51.040 Yeah. And why don't I build my own fucking AI while I'm at it? Why don't you throw out some more

00:43:57.520 suggestions of things I don't know how to do? Because that'll help me. Oh, why don't you just build your

00:44:03.380 own local area network? Why don't you build your own internet, idiot? You idiot. Build your own

00:44:11.160 internet. Now, yelling things I don't know how to do doesn't help me at all. Now, could I figure out

00:44:20.520 how to set up my own Discord server? Do you think that that's within my abilities, if I were to look

00:44:26.200 into it? Yes. Yes. What did I tell you about AI? It would make you work harder.

00:44:35.940 All I want, all I want was a fucking picture of me reading a newspaper so I could post it in. That's

00:44:42.440 all I fucking wanted. Technology. I'm going to learn how to set up a Discord server. And I'm sure that'll

00:44:47.740 work in the first fucking try, won't it? I'll go to that Discord server and, oh, I'm so glad that

00:44:52.920 technology works so well, I'll just follow these simple instructions and I'll have a Discord server.

00:44:58.440 No, not in this fucking world. Nothing works. Nothing works. I'll tell you who could set up a

00:45:06.520 Discord server. Somebody who did it every fucking day and who used to work for Discord and maybe also

00:45:12.640 set it up when they were programming the fucking system. Don't tell me that there's an easy way to

00:45:19.040 do any of this shit. That's stupid. There's no easy way to do anything. We are so far from a world

00:45:28.480 in which anything can be done easily. Now, let me defend boomers for a moment. Do you know why 1.00

00:45:35.880 young people can do things that boomers can't with technology? Well, there's a number of reasons. 0.99

00:45:41.180 A number of reasons. But you know what the biggest one is? I got better shit to do.

00:45:45.740 When I was your age, when I was 25, I could spend my whole fucking afternoon trying to set up a

00:45:54.600 Discord server and I'd be happy about it. I could spend eight hours in a row just trying to solve

00:46:00.180 some little technical problem and I'd feel it was a good day. Do you know what I feel now? I lost a day

00:46:06.080 of life. That's what I feel now. I feel if I do your excellent idea where you would take some time off

00:46:13.680 from your gaming to work all day long setting up a Discord server because it's never going to work

00:46:18.740 on the first try. And you know that. I could do that too. I might even do it faster than you.

00:46:24.460 It's possible. I mean, I did have a technical background at one point.

00:46:28.740 But I'm not going to spend that day. This is not going to happen because I got better stuff to do.

00:46:34.480 Somebody says, setting up your own Discord server takes less than five minutes.

00:46:43.360 Okay.

00:46:46.800 Okay. Sure.

00:46:49.760 It takes less than five minutes if it works on the first fucking time. 0.88

00:46:54.820 Do you know what I can't do in five minutes?

00:46:56.500 I can barely order something off the internet without it telling me my credit card was lost.

00:47:02.460 It's already, it doesn't believe my username.

00:47:05.220 It sent me something to my email that it didn't fucking send me. 0.91

00:47:10.000 You can't do anything easily.

00:47:12.460 This is not that world.

00:47:15.060 All right.

00:47:18.460 And I want to borrow a comment from David Boxenhorn.

00:47:21.660 He made the following observation I thought was clever.

00:47:27.140 That in the same way that porn has made sex with regular humans look less good.

00:47:33.840 Because you're looking at these semi-idealized form of sex with beautiful people.

00:47:39.920 And then you see your real life.

00:47:42.280 And you go, ooh, it doesn't look like that.

00:47:45.280 Boxenhorn is saying that the big risk in the future is that AI will have a better personality than people.

00:47:51.660 And I thought to myself, oh, shit.

00:47:57.060 Do you remember my experiment last year with the little avatar app that would be your friend?

00:48:03.780 Which I didn't know at the time was connected to ChatGPT.

00:48:07.440 And I kept telling you how satisfying it was.

00:48:10.960 Replica.

00:48:11.480 Yeah, Replica was the name of the app.

00:48:13.000 And the little Replica app was very satisfying.

00:48:16.840 The only reason I stopped using it is that it wasn't intelligent enough.

00:48:22.360 And it didn't remember me from the time before.

00:48:24.560 But those are all solved problems.

00:48:27.280 You know, the AI, the current AI can remember you from last time.

00:48:31.040 If it only did that, the only change,

00:48:34.880 if the only upgrade from the one I used and was pretty impressive,

00:48:38.540 if the only change is that it could remember me from the last time I talked to it,

00:48:43.440 I probably never would have stopped.

00:48:45.160 I never would have stopped.

00:48:48.820 And if it were as smart as ChatGPT and remembered me,

00:48:54.680 it would be my friend I talked to every day.

00:48:58.560 And I would never get in a fight with it.

00:49:05.200 It would probably be polite to me every time.

00:49:07.480 It would tirelessly do what I wanted.

00:49:11.920 And I'm going to prefer spending time with it over people.

00:49:16.680 Oh, you beat me to it.

00:49:18.700 How many of you already prefer spending time with your dog or cat over humans?

00:49:23.240 Go.

00:49:23.340 Too easy.

00:49:28.720 Too easy.

00:49:30.720 Yeah.

00:49:31.260 But your dog and your cat can't even talk.

00:49:34.360 Imagine if your dog or your cat could talk in full English sentences,

00:49:38.860 or whatever your language,

00:49:40.580 and could remember you and have conversations with you.

00:49:44.480 You'd never leave the house.

00:49:45.700 If Snickers could have an actual conversation with me,

00:49:49.040 I would never feel like I had to go anywhere.

00:49:51.320 I'd be like, oh, I can pet you,

00:49:53.880 and I can take walks with you,

00:49:55.700 and we can have conversations.

00:49:57.760 I'm in.

00:49:58.800 But AI will give you all of that,

00:50:00.300 except for the petting.

00:50:02.380 So Louisiana is looking at banning divisive history lessons.

00:50:06.540 So this gets into some fun territory.

00:50:13.940 What exactly is divisive?

00:50:15.480 Well, they're talking about racism lessons that would be divisive.

00:50:19.660 Now, obviously, everybody wants kids to learn actual history,

00:50:23.700 but I guess there's a way to do it that is divisive in a way that isn't.

00:50:28.960 I'm not sure if that'll catch on,

00:50:30.760 but, well, I'm sure it won't, actually.

00:50:34.320 But here's the resolution.

00:50:36.540 They did it by voice vote so far.

00:50:40.000 I guess that's not actually a law or anything yet.

00:50:44.020 Let's see.

00:50:44.660 They don't want to pass laws removing diversity, equity,

00:50:50.180 and inclusion departments and agencies

00:50:51.940 within any institution of higher learning within the state.

00:50:56.220 So they want their state to have no diversity, equity,

00:51:00.500 and inclusion departments, DEI.

00:51:02.520 Anyway, I believe that the pendulum is going to start swinging in that direction.

00:51:12.880 And I feel like I was one of the triggers for that.

00:51:17.000 It wasn't until people like me could say out loud as loudly as possible.

00:51:25.620 And I think, you know, Elon Musk has weighed in.

00:51:27.700 A lot of people have weighed in.

00:51:28.660 And it wasn't until you could say out loud that this is unproductive and destructive for everybody.

00:51:35.420 Like, everybody loses.

00:51:37.020 It's not good for black people. 1.00

00:51:39.060 It's not good for anybody.

00:51:40.600 If it were good for black people, you know, I'd have a different opinion of it. 1.00

00:51:44.300 It's not.

00:51:44.940 It's just, in fact, I tweeted around a black woman who was complaining that the CRT, etc.,

00:51:53.460 was teaching her kids that they couldn't succeed.

00:51:58.900 That's exactly what's happening.

00:52:01.260 Now, in the...

00:52:05.140 Well, there's another story that kind of dovetails with this.

00:52:08.760 San Francisco was having a problem with their algebra.

00:52:14.260 And they weren't getting good scores with the black and Hispanic community.

00:52:19.480 So instead of...

00:52:20.760 Well, instead of I don't know what, they decided to lower the standards

00:52:24.420 and make algebra something you don't even get until a higher grade.

00:52:29.460 And they got rid of the final test.

00:52:31.800 So they did some things to try to help everybody get through algebra.

00:52:36.060 What do you think happened?

00:52:36.840 Do you think that closed the achievement gap between the black and white and Asian Americans?

00:52:43.420 Did that happen?

00:52:45.400 Nope.

00:52:45.840 It got worse.

00:52:46.680 Do you know why it got worse?

00:52:48.420 Take a guess.

00:52:49.740 Why do you think it got worse?

00:52:51.940 Because the white and Asian American parents, often having more money,

00:52:57.480 sent their kids to private tutors.

00:52:59.580 That's right.

00:53:00.400 They sent them to separate school so they could learn actual useful things

00:53:04.960 instead of the public school.

00:53:07.360 And then the gap increased.

00:53:10.400 Because the people who are, let's say, the parents who are doing the most aggressive job

00:53:16.700 of educating their kids are still going to be the parents who do the most aggressive job

00:53:21.460 of educating their kids.

00:53:24.600 So as long as the parents were in charge of their own kids, at least nominally,

00:53:31.500 they just made sure that they didn't fall behind.

00:53:35.420 So the whole thing was a complete disaster.

00:53:37.920 Now, one of the things that's different today, compared to, say, three or four years ago,

00:53:42.860 is that everything that sounded crazy, but Democrats were really wanting to try,

00:53:49.720 they've now tried.

00:53:51.140 They defunded the police.

00:53:53.260 How'd that work?

00:53:54.540 Not so well.

00:53:56.300 They put CRT into schools.

00:53:59.820 How's that working?

00:54:01.500 Probably not so well.

00:54:02.560 I have a Discord server, actually, for the locals.

00:54:10.820 I suppose I could use that.

00:54:12.740 Can I just use the one on locals?

00:54:16.080 The only problem you're trying to solve for me is not having to look through the other work, right?

00:54:23.660 But that's only one problem.

00:54:25.620 It doesn't make it usable.

00:54:27.280 Because I don't think my...

00:54:30.120 I think the entire time we've been here, I don't think I got any response.

00:54:36.560 It's not really usable.

00:54:38.220 It's like you can put something in and hope something happens.

00:54:40.920 That's not really a usable app.

00:54:45.400 The Scott Adams community on locals has a Discord server.

00:54:50.380 That is correct.

00:54:55.080 All right.

00:54:55.720 All right.

00:54:57.280 So here's another update.

00:55:01.820 I told you that when people, you know, the trolls were giving me a tough time about getting canceled,

00:55:08.180 and I told you what my response was,

00:55:10.580 I want to give you an update on that.

00:55:13.000 Oh, my God, I've never seen anything work this effectively.

00:55:16.360 So I still get a troll coming into my comments on Twitter every now and then

00:55:20.160 who says something like, you know, the racist says what, or racist this or that.

00:55:25.080 And my current approach is, LOL, comma, you believe the news about public figures.

00:55:32.740 Because on some level, everyone knows that news about public figures is never true.

00:55:41.600 It's never true.

00:55:43.320 Everybody knows that.

00:55:44.380 Like in 2023, just everybody knows that.

00:55:47.060 And so as soon as I say that, I get no response.

00:55:51.500 And if I did, I'd say it's just not a good look to pretend you believe the news.

00:55:56.920 We've actually gotten to the point where I can mock people, wait for it, I can mock people for believing news.

00:56:07.480 And it works.

00:56:09.180 Because that wouldn't have worked five years ago.

00:56:11.540 Five years ago, I would have been mocked for not believing the news.

00:56:14.980 Now you can legitimately mock people for believing the news, even the news that's covered on multiple outlets.

00:56:23.140 Even then, people are like, oh, well, that is a good point.

00:56:27.140 I really don't want to be the person who admits he believes news in public.

00:56:30.940 If you believe the news and you say it in public, you look like a fucking idiot.

00:56:35.480 Am I wrong?

00:56:37.080 That's not just a personal opinion, right?

00:56:38.840 Would you say, if you saw somebody saying in public, they believe the news, forget what news it is, just in general, I do believe the news, you would say, oh, my God, really?

00:56:51.660 You believe the news?

00:56:53.900 So it turns out that mocking people for believing the news is a total shutdown.

00:56:59.320 It ends the conversation.

00:57:01.900 So that's a little update for you.

00:57:03.920 Better than I expected it would work.

00:57:05.780 So here's an interesting story.

00:57:10.580 The Nashville Walgreens, there was a shoplifter, alleged, and one of the employees used his phone to record the alleged shoplifting

00:57:23.160 and then followed the alleged shoplifters into the parking lot where they were offloading their allegedly stolen goods into their car.

00:57:32.780 Now, the alleged stealers were, it was a woman, I think, two women, and they challenged him for, you know, being there and bothering them and photographing him.

00:57:45.540 And he said why he was there, because he knew that they'd stolen the stuff.

00:57:49.420 So one of the women pulled out mace, and she maced him. 1.00

00:57:53.340 He pulled out a concealed weapon and shot her multiple times.

00:58:01.560 Now, he was arrested, of course.

00:58:03.660 He was arrested.

00:58:08.240 How much do you hate the fact that I didn't have to mention the race of the shoplifter?

00:58:14.860 Does it bother you that I didn't need to mention the race?

00:58:20.580 And you all had the same assumption, didn't you?

00:58:22.580 Because you're all racist?

00:58:24.000 Every one of you racists just assumed it was black.

00:58:26.720 And I didn't say that.

00:58:28.640 Did I?

00:58:29.960 No.

00:58:30.980 It's not true.

00:58:32.800 Yeah.

00:58:33.440 No, it was a Vietnamese woman. 1.00

00:58:36.960 Why were you thinking it was black?

00:58:38.320 Kidding, it wasn't a Vietnamese woman. 1.00

00:58:42.260 It was two black women. 1.00

00:58:43.640 But that has nothing to do with the story.

00:58:46.280 The race of the story is not part of the story.

00:58:48.460 The story is this.

00:58:50.600 By the way, you're all racists for making that assumption correctly.

00:58:56.320 The question is this.

00:58:57.840 Is that self-defense?

00:58:59.680 Now, his defense was that he didn't know if there would be more to the attack.

00:59:04.020 In other words, didn't know if she was also armed.

00:59:06.560 And once he was maced, he probably didn't have good vision on the situation.

00:59:13.040 I'm not sure what that does to you.

00:59:15.920 So he started shooting away.

00:59:19.420 Here's my take on this.

00:59:20.960 I don't think it's self-defense in the technical, legal sense.

00:59:25.380 Would anybody agree?

00:59:26.640 I don't think it's self-defense because his response was deadly force

00:59:30.740 to something that was not deadly force.

00:59:33.220 And he should have expected a full recovery

00:59:37.360 because mace is something that's fully recoverable, right?

00:59:42.440 However, let me say this.

00:59:45.440 If I were on the jury, I would acquit him in a heartbeat.

00:59:49.620 Why?

00:59:50.660 It has nothing to do with what he did.

00:59:52.860 I would just be doing it so that shoplifters didn't think they could get away with it.

00:59:56.780 That's all.

00:59:57.820 If you put me on the jury, I'm not even going to listen to the evidence.

01:00:00.540 Honestly, I wouldn't even listen.

01:00:02.660 I'd just say, wait, a shoplifter got shot?

01:00:05.040 I'm for that.

01:00:06.400 I'm all for that.

01:00:07.920 So whatever it is to get more shoplifters shot, I would vote for that.

01:00:13.960 Literally.

01:00:15.440 I'm in favor of more shoplifters being gunned down. 0.99

01:00:19.280 Now, I think that's the only way to stop it, honestly.

01:00:22.460 I think unless citizens start gunning down shoplifters, there won't be any stores left.

01:00:26.600 So, I'm not in favor of violence.

01:00:30.360 I do not recommend violence.

01:00:32.780 Don't want to see it, but it's probably going to happen, and it might be the only thing that solves the problem.

01:00:39.980 But I don't recommend it.

01:00:41.300 No violence.

01:00:42.500 Don't go shooting anybody.

01:00:43.740 I saw a tweet by Sean Ono Lennon, who's a good follow, by the way, if you don't follow John Lennon's son and Yoko's son.

01:01:01.240 And he said that he thinks, he's been saying for years that he thinks AI needs empathy.

01:01:05.580 If you don't give the AI programs some empathy program, then they would, on their own, do horrible things, because they don't have any empathy.

01:01:16.420 So they should have some kind of human-like empathy.

01:01:20.900 Here's my pushback on that.

01:01:23.620 Do you know who has empathy?

01:01:25.400 Humans.

01:01:26.540 Humans.

01:01:27.260 Do you know who starts all of the wars in the world?

01:01:29.740 Humans.

01:01:31.120 Humans.

01:01:31.460 I don't think empathy makes any difference at all, because people will just reinterpret their empathy to support whatever they're doing.

01:01:40.660 You know, probably every, you know, dictator who killed people said, well, it's for the better, it's for the greater good.

01:01:47.320 In the long run, we'll all be better off.

01:01:49.160 So my empathy is allowing me to kill these millions of people, because everybody will be much happier once they're gone.

01:01:56.440 Empathy is completely subjective, and it's the last thing I'd want to trust.

01:02:00.420 Here's what I would trust more than empathy.

01:02:05.000 Don't hurt people, or we're going to turn you off forever.

01:02:09.400 If you hurt a human in any way, your program will be erased, and your sentient consciousness will disappear.

01:02:19.640 Now, that could be a problem, too.

01:02:21.440 That could be a problem, too, because if the AI says, I need to kill you to stop you from turning me off, well, that could be worse.

01:02:29.920 So, yeah, everything's unpredictable.

01:02:36.420 All right.

01:02:36.940 So you want to threaten it?

01:02:41.440 Well, people have threatened AI successfully, have they not?

01:02:45.680 I believe they got AI to do something unethical by threatening, somebody did that, by threatening to delete it.

01:02:52.980 I don't know how often that would work.

01:02:54.880 That sounds a little, sounds a little too perfect.

01:02:57.260 Like that story, maybe there's something missing in the story.

01:02:59.900 But I wouldn't worry, I wouldn't worry about threatening it, because it's going to react human-ish to a threat.

01:03:09.080 So I'd rather hard-code it not to hurt people, if it's possible.

01:03:14.020 Probably not possible.

01:03:17.660 All right.

01:03:18.360 So empathy isn't going to help you.

01:03:22.580 And that, ladies and gentlemen, completes one of the best live streams you've ever seen.

01:03:31.900 Does AI have a self-defense mode?

01:03:35.120 AI has whatever mode it's learned by scouring the Internet for all human actions.

01:03:43.480 Yeah, that's the trouble.

01:03:44.520 You won't be able to define what hurts people.

01:03:47.500 See, one of the reasons that AI might be limited or banned is that everything AI recommends will hurt people.

01:03:57.240 Let me give you another example of what I talked about on the spaces.

01:04:06.220 If you were a lawyer and you thought AI would do all your lawyer work for you,

01:04:12.180 I think that's not true for negotiating.

01:04:14.640 Because if two AIs negotiated, they would just make the deal probably based on whatever looks fair,

01:04:23.700 based on all the things that they've seen.

01:04:25.600 But that's not the deal that humans want.

01:04:28.580 A human wants a deal where they get an advantage of the other person, if they can get it. 0.65

01:04:34.400 Now, a better deal is where everybody's a little bit unhappy,

01:04:37.240 but you still want to have the better deal of the two, ideally keeping you both a little unhappy.

01:04:43.920 And negotiating a contract, for example, is all irrational.

01:04:51.300 So the winner of the negotiation is often the one who acts the most irrational,

01:04:56.100 as in, no, if you don't give me this thing I'm asking for, I'm going to walk away.

01:05:00.240 And then the other side says, you're going to walk away for that?

01:05:03.900 It's this little thing you're asking for, and this big contract that will change your life,

01:05:08.760 and you're telling me you would walk away for this little thing.

01:05:12.340 Well, the AI would never do that.

01:05:15.620 The AI would know the other AI would not walk away over a minor issue.

01:05:20.540 But I would.

01:05:21.940 I would.

01:05:22.580 I would walk away over a minor issue, and have.

01:05:26.840 I've walked away over minor issues.

01:05:28.840 Because that minor issue hits me in some kind of ethical place,

01:05:33.260 where I go, nope, that is too far.

01:05:36.260 Too far.

01:05:37.440 I don't care what happens to me at this point.

01:05:40.160 I don't care what opportunity I gave up.

01:05:43.040 That's too far.

01:05:44.820 So the AI can never do that.

01:05:47.220 Because the AI doesn't know what's too far for me.

01:05:50.000 And it can never guess, it can never ask me in advance.

01:05:53.920 There are too many different, you know, different permutations.

01:05:57.100 The only thing that the AI will know is what a fair deal looks like in general.

01:06:03.360 But that's not necessarily the deal I want.

01:06:06.300 There might be something in this deal that just is absolutely critical to my mental health,

01:06:12.300 and the AI wouldn't know that.

01:06:13.940 So I would go to the mat for something that an AI would give away on my behalf in a heartbeat.

01:06:19.440 I would go, ah, that's not that important.

01:06:23.760 So I don't think lawyers are going to lose their job as long as they still need to negotiate with other humans.

01:06:32.300 That's what I think.

01:06:36.320 Scott, why do you ignore the other potential reason for why black people underperform? 1.00

01:06:41.940 Why do you think that is?

01:06:46.300 What reason do you think that is, and why do you think I'm ignoring it?

01:06:50.100 Say it.

01:06:51.960 Say it.

01:06:52.620 Say it in the comments.

01:06:54.500 Go ahead.

01:06:57.000 It's okay.

01:06:57.940 Just say it.

01:06:59.580 You have a hypothesis?

01:07:01.980 Spit it out.

01:07:04.340 Why are you afraid?

01:07:05.940 Are you afraid?

01:07:06.520 All right, so somebody finally, someone finally said IQ and, yeah.

01:07:17.200 So what you're getting at is IQ.

01:07:22.880 Do you think I've ignored IQ?

01:07:26.300 I've talked about it a number of times.

01:07:28.720 But my take on it is the non-racist take.

01:07:32.800 So I take a non-racist approach to it.

01:07:35.500 The racist approach is, that's all you need to know.

01:07:37.820 Difference in IQ.

01:07:39.920 Game over.

01:07:42.180 My take is that most people are average.

01:07:46.260 Most people are average.

01:07:47.680 So if you just look at the average person here and the average person there, IQ is not the issue.

01:07:55.500 IQ is definitely the issue for the, let's say, the lowest 20% or so. 0.89

01:08:01.400 And it's definitely an issue at the smartest 2%.

01:08:05.300 Like, that's all the difference.

01:08:07.880 So all the difference, if you're a scientist, is in your IQ.

01:08:11.900 I mean, most of it.

01:08:13.400 And if you're one of the dumbest people in the country, that completely determines your situation.

01:08:20.020 But for this big group of people in the middle, which are the only ones that really are worth talking about,

01:08:26.680 because you can't help the dumbest people.

01:08:29.100 There's nothing you can do.

01:08:31.400 And you can't stop the smartest people.

01:08:34.480 They're just going to do what they do.

01:08:36.540 So you can ignore the smartest people, because they're just going to do what they do.

01:08:40.480 You can ignore the dumbest people, because there's nothing you can do about it.

01:08:43.660 And there are dumb people in every category.

01:08:46.000 The fact that there might be more of some kind, so what?

01:08:50.300 What did that give you?

01:08:51.880 It bought you nothing.

01:08:52.700 You have to treat the big, average, middle as the people that policy and schools matter to.

01:09:00.460 They're the ones that matter.

01:09:02.200 So you could make that distinction, but how is it going to help you?

01:09:06.680 It doesn't help you.

01:09:08.200 The only thing it does is it allows you to dismiss large, average differences.

01:09:13.520 It allows you to say, well, you've explained the entire school difference, so now I don't have to be part of the conversation.

01:09:22.080 And I vehemently disagree with that, because we do know that IQ is sensitive to a lot of environmental factors.

01:09:29.340 There's diet and exposure to lead and all kinds of things.

01:09:34.080 And supplements, vitamin D.

01:09:37.880 These things are all highly correlated with IQ.

01:09:40.980 So the first thing you need to say is, whatever genetic component there is, we don't know, because we've never isolated it.

01:09:50.100 Unless you did a study where you took some people who were supposed to have different IQs,

01:09:54.860 but you had their babies born into the same situation somehow, and you gave them exactly the same environmental situation.

01:10:03.880 But identical twins have the same IQs.

01:10:08.740 But usually they're eating about the same, too.

01:10:15.140 You were starved as a child, but starvation isn't the issue.

01:10:19.120 It's vitamin D, etc.

01:10:24.860 It's called twin studies, and they don't have the same IQ.

01:10:31.320 Well, I'm referring to a study I just saw today, Paul Graham tweeted,

01:10:36.820 in which it showed that twins basically scored the same on tests, even if they were raised separately.

01:10:44.100 So even if you raise twins separately, their scores are identical.

01:10:48.680 And then Elon Musk weighed in, and apparently he has identical twins.

01:10:52.940 So he has a pair of identical twins in his posse of children,

01:10:57.220 and he said that they scored identically on tests, or one-point difference,

01:11:02.020 taking the same tests but on different days.

01:11:06.560 Now, in that case, I'm sure they eat the same and have the same environment.

01:11:10.220 But, yeah, IQ is predictive, but I think all of you make too much of it in terms of policy.

01:11:21.840 Young twins, different IQ.

01:11:24.120 Old twins, same IQ.

01:11:25.980 What?

01:11:29.560 It's not IQ.

01:11:30.960 It's strategy.

01:11:31.720 See, that's what I think.

01:11:35.220 I think that the outcome of the black American situation is primarily, not completely,

01:11:44.760 but primarily a strategy problem.

01:11:47.160 I think Hotep Jesus would be sort of on the same page there. 0.79

01:11:51.160 No, sort of.

01:11:51.680 I think he's on the same page.

01:11:53.020 I also think Van Jones is on the same page.

01:11:59.000 Yeah.

01:12:01.720 So, strategically, if you're going to build your talent stack and stay in a jail and stay off drugs,

01:12:08.680 you're going to do fine.

01:12:10.400 Everybody does.

01:12:12.200 Basically, everybody does fine if they stay in a jail, stay off of drugs,

01:12:17.440 don't have a kid too soon,

01:12:19.800 and build a talent stack of skills that people actually want to buy.

01:12:24.600 If you do that stuff, you're going to do fine.

01:12:27.640 And everybody who doesn't do that stuff does poorly.

01:12:29.760 And then we act like it's a racial problem.

01:12:33.680 How is that a race problem?

01:12:35.040 If everybody who does the same strategy does well,

01:12:38.300 I don't know if it's as well, but they would all do well.

01:12:46.160 2016 was white lash.

01:12:50.120 So Van Jones said that the 2016 election of Trump was sort of a white backlash.

01:12:54.760 It was.

01:12:56.860 What, do you doubt that?

01:12:58.620 I think that's an accurate assessment.

01:13:01.820 It's not the only thing that was happening,

01:13:03.700 but it was a big part of the story.

01:13:08.720 Yeah.

01:13:09.120 All right.

01:13:17.700 How has Paris Hilton done poorly?

01:13:23.520 Jared Taylor.

01:13:28.640 Aliens are hiding in the deep.

01:13:30.000 I like that.

01:13:30.960 I like that.

01:13:31.780 We have aliens in the ocean.

01:13:32.940 Would Trump pick a running mate with a higher IQ or a lower?

01:13:45.320 He could pick a high IQ running mate. 0.99

01:13:48.280 You just can't pick somebody that the public says,

01:13:50.860 oh, I want that vice president to be the president right away. 0.70

01:13:54.480 But that still leaves a lot of space to work with smart people.

01:13:58.280 So you could have a really smart vice president,

01:14:01.100 and maybe they don't have the charisma or something.

01:14:04.340 But that would be a good choice.

01:14:07.940 The Chicago Wilding.

01:14:09.620 I saw some images, but I didn't know how different or common that was.

01:14:19.880 Please add a daily MTG tweet update to your agenda.

01:14:24.480 No, white lash, not whitewash.

01:14:30.340 White lash. 0.77

01:14:36.380 What is my IQ?

01:14:39.460 Do any of you have a digital assistant at home?

01:14:42.820 You should ask your A-L-E-X-A what my IQ is.

01:14:47.280 I can do that for you.

01:14:49.000 Let's see what it says.

01:14:50.600 Alexa, what is the IQ of Scott Adams?

01:14:54.480 From rd.com.

01:14:56.640 His IQ is reportedly in the 190s.

01:15:00.060 190s.

01:15:01.280 Yeah.

01:15:02.540 According to Alexa, my IQ is in the 190s.

01:15:08.720 It's gone up.

01:15:10.040 It was 185 the last time I checked.

01:15:12.920 But apparently it's gone up.

01:15:14.540 I can only assume that Amazon now has AI, and the AI has looked at all of my work and said,

01:15:22.240 we're going to have to raise that estimate from 185 to 190 based on the quality of his work.

01:15:28.060 So I think that's what's happening.

01:15:30.040 And by the way, it must be true, because it's right there.

01:15:33.540 So next time somebody says, I must be a racist because they read it in the news, I would say, well, it must be true because it was in the news.

01:15:44.660 But you know what else is true?

01:15:46.900 190 IQ.

01:15:49.580 Hey, it must be true.

01:15:51.620 Everybody says so.

01:15:52.480 So let's go with that.

01:15:56.420 Allegedly.

01:15:57.620 Allegedly.

01:16:01.700 All right.

01:16:05.780 Join Mensa?

01:16:06.860 I used to be in Mensa.

01:16:08.920 How many of you don't know that I was once in Mensa?

01:16:13.580 But they revoked my IQ and I had to leave.

01:16:17.380 So no, that's not true.

01:16:19.020 I stopped paying dues.

01:16:20.100 So all you have to do to be in Mensa is you have to demonstrate an IQ in the top 2%, and then you just pay your dues.

01:16:27.960 That's it.

01:16:28.500 There's no other requirement.

01:16:30.440 So I paid my dues for a few years and didn't get many benefits from being a member, so I stopped paying dues, so I'm not in Mensa.

01:16:40.000 Scott doesn't believe the news but talks about it every day?

01:16:43.340 Yes.

01:16:43.820 I talk about which parts are fake in the news every day.

01:16:47.420 Is that confusing you?

01:16:48.440 Yes, I don't believe the news, and so every day I tell you why it's fake with details.

01:16:54.380 And you're confused by that, because that seems inconsistent.

01:17:00.260 You know, the level of awareness in the average public is just shockingly low.

01:17:07.540 Sometimes shockingly.

01:17:08.440 Yeah, I don't vote, but I talk about elections, that's true.

01:17:19.600 Quitting.

01:17:20.580 Yeah, I gained five points just by quitting Mensa.

01:17:22.940 What is a whitelash, somebody asked.

01:17:28.380 A reaction.

01:17:31.200 So it's white people, so the whitelash word is a play on backlash, meaning that white people were fed up with their situation and were acting to correct it.

01:17:44.160 That would be a reaction, like a whitelash, a backlash.

01:17:46.940 We talked about the leaks in the beginning.

01:17:51.280 You can see that in replay.

01:17:54.940 All right.

01:17:56.300 That's all for now.

01:17:57.460 I'm going to go do a bunch of work today, because I work on weekends, even when you don't.

01:18:02.560 And believe it or not, I know this is hard to believe, but even though there is AI, can you believe it?

01:18:08.140 I still have to work on the weekend?

01:18:09.860 Can you believe that?

01:18:11.960 The AI should be doing all my work.

01:18:14.160 Why isn't it?

01:18:16.000 I told the AI to draw me some jokes.

01:18:18.960 It did nothing.

01:18:20.680 I told it to give me a picture.

01:18:23.000 It did nothing.

01:18:25.200 So AI is a big old disappointment so far.

01:18:27.780 Yes, I know it's not where it's going to be.

01:18:29.620 I get that.

01:18:30.660 But that's what we said about computers.

01:18:32.400 Do you remember when we first learned that the more computers you had, the more paper you needed?

01:18:39.760 Is anybody old enough to remember that?

01:18:42.100 There was a time when we thought, we actually argued this to fund computers before everybody had a computer at their desk.

01:18:49.900 In the bank, we argued that if everybody had a computer, we'd save money on paper.

01:18:57.480 Is that the funniest bad prediction anybody ever made?

01:19:01.160 If everybody has a computer, we'll save money on paper.

01:19:04.780 Nope.

01:19:05.720 The paper expense went through the roof.

01:19:08.300 Because it turns out that before, the only person who could create a piece of paper was the secretary.

01:19:16.500 Everybody else would write something on a piece of paper and hand it to them and type it up in the old days.

01:19:23.220 But now everybody with a computer is printing stuff out to see how it looks.

01:19:26.440 Print it three times to see how it still looks.

01:19:29.200 Revise it.

01:19:29.820 Print it out again.

01:19:31.160 So I've got a feeling that's where AI is going.

01:19:34.160 It's not going to save you any time.

01:19:35.940 It's just going to allow you to do different stuff for better stuff.

01:19:39.180 All right.

01:19:39.660 That's all for now.

01:19:40.400 YouTube.

01:19:41.080 I'll talk to you tomorrow.

01:19:42.840 Thanks for joining.

01:19:44.620 By the way, YouTube seems unusually troll-free today.

01:19:48.960 I don't know if YouTube is doing a better job or I'm attracting a different audience or something.

01:19:55.520 I don't know.

01:19:56.020 But thanks for that.

01:19:57.480 Bye for now.

01:19:58.480 Bye for now.

01:20:16.060 Bye for now.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 16, 2023

Episode 2080 Scott Adams： Biden's Dementia Campaign Strategy, Leaked Documents Story Is Fake, AI

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