Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2091 Scott Adams： Tucker's Plan, AI Reframes, Biden's Campaign Strategy, Talking Robot Dog

00:00:00.000 Do good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of civilization and I'm talking about

00:00:08.480 the organic civilization not the virtual world that's coming where we'll all be silicon but if

00:00:16.840 you'd like to maximize this reality which some think is the base reality ha ha ha ha all you

00:00:24.020 need is a cup or a mug or a glass a tankard shells or stein a canteen jug or flask a vessel of any

00:00:29.480 kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled

00:00:34.940 pleasure it's the dope meat into the day the thing that makes everything better it's called

00:00:40.760 the simultaneous sip and it happens now go ah that's some good stuff right there well I don't know about

00:00:57.600 you but I'm having a little extra difficulty sorting out reality from digital reality are you having that

00:01:08.700 problem yet so today alone I think there were three stories that I weren't sure were real I'll get to

00:01:18.540 all of them I think but I read the news today and every time I saw a story I was like real or is that

00:01:27.180 some kind of AI thing I can't tell watch how many of them they that there start to be as we go forward

00:01:33.900 all right um did you see the well the first one that blew my mind did you see a video which I believe

00:01:43.360 is CGI uh of the uh prime minister of Italy and the caption was that they banned AI and so the AI came to

00:01:53.560 visit them uh yes it's fake but there's a it shows a car driving up in sort of an outdoor ceremony

00:02:00.740 and you see this robot get out of the car and walk up and shake hands with the prime minister

00:02:06.640 and then the two of them sort of like bow to the people playing music or whatever and then they turn

00:02:12.060 and walk walk down the red carpet to go meet with each other oh my god does it look real

00:02:17.520 now it's not it's not but when you say to yourself oh the reason I know this is not real

00:02:26.080 is because it's too futuristic right I mean that's that's the reason you know it's not real

00:02:32.080 the reason you know it's not real is that it couldn't be there's no way it could be real

00:02:36.220 that a robot would get out of a car and shake your head and then you know to walk down this carpet with

00:02:42.760 you and go to a meeting right well the same day I saw that which by the way looked like sort of a

00:02:50.040 modified boston dynamics robot you've seen those the videos same day as that one was fake

00:02:57.180 I think this next one's real it was a video of one of those boston robotic dogs you've seen those

00:03:05.380 little creepy robot dogs they put AI in one and there's a picture of a guy just talking to his

00:03:12.340 robot dog telling it to you know back up a few steps or you know do this or that and is AI you

00:03:21.120 know it's it's a conversational AI in a robot dog now is there anything in that fake video of the

00:03:30.440 fake robot getting out of a car and shaking hands and going to a meeting is there anything that they

00:03:35.340 can't do now that was in the fake video and the answer is I think they could do all of that right

00:03:42.900 now like actually a robot could get out of a car shake hands and go to a meeting with you and

00:03:49.180 actually have a meeting that's real but wow it was such a star wars like creepy weird thing just seeing

00:03:56.600 that because you can see it's it's like two weeks in the future you know did you think there'd be a

00:04:03.520 talking robot dog today I mean that kind of snuck up on me all right here's the most interesting

00:04:13.080 thing happening in the news Tucker Carlson made a little video it looks like he made it from his

00:04:18.540 just guessing probably his main studio he has a studio home two homes in Florida and Maine and

00:04:25.800 he didn't did not announce his future plans because it would be too soon to do that he has to

00:04:33.040 probably work out some stuff with Fox News who are technically still his employers it just to show

00:04:38.540 is off the air so but what he teased was that there are lots of good people in the country

00:04:47.280 so he was sort of feeling good about how how awesome humans are and I have to say that when I got

00:04:55.220 canceled I had the same experience as soon as I got canceled the people who are good people in the

00:05:03.020 world just sort of emerge you know to make sure you're okay just checking in on you right and I

00:05:09.100 got to say it was just the coolest thing so he's I'm sure he's experiencing the same thing which is

00:05:15.060 just zillions of people sending him positive messages now the only reason I didn't send him a

00:05:21.440 message you know I think I have a way to get through the only reason I didn't send him a positive

00:05:26.300 messages I thought he'd be buried in them and he wouldn't see it but in my mind I'm sending him a

00:05:33.040 positive message maybe later I'll send him one but the world is really adjusted for the canceled

00:05:42.900 I've said that before but here's another clean example the it used to be that fired and canceled

00:05:49.720 was really bad news if you were a high profile person but now the the free market has just

00:05:57.200 adjusted so that the canceled go from a bad situation to a slightly better one

00:06:02.300 I if you were looking for something that was a positive sign of the future you know amidst all

00:06:10.880 the things that look kind of creepy and bad and scary that's pretty positive the fact that speaking

00:06:18.280 speaking speaking what you think is the truth we could argue what's true but saying what you

00:06:23.680 think is the truth will get you fired and promoted so now you can get fired promoted it's the best

00:06:33.820 kind of fired I'm pretty sure Tucker's going to come out better than he was you have fired

00:06:40.000 promoted so did I like I make less you know way less money than I made when I was you know worldwide

00:06:47.300 global cartoonist but in terms of my overall satisfaction and happiness and I can still

00:06:53.540 pay the bills I'm way better off way better off it's not even close so fired promoted that's the

00:07:00.220 new thing all right so here's what I picked up in this announcement he talked about how our debates

00:07:06.360 are worthless that we don't really see good debates oh do you see where this is going do you see what

00:07:16.000 he teased oh my god this is so much better than I expected I didn't know what to expect I just

00:07:27.320 figured he'd do a podcast or something but if what he's going to do and this is what I'm sensing don't

00:07:34.380 know that this is true but I'm gonna make this I'm gonna make this prediction based on just how smart he

00:07:42.300 is that that'll be my only basis for the prediction just how smart he is right so you just figure the

00:07:49.540 smartest person would do the smarter thing what's the smartest thing that Tucker could do there's no

00:07:55.540 question about it it's easy he could host a debate show where he actually has two people on gives them

00:08:03.960 enough time to talk and doesn't take sides now I know I know what the critics are going to say you're

00:08:11.420 saying to me Scott Tucker is so much in the bag for one side that he could never be a you know a good

00:08:19.880 debate host because he would just be too biased absolutely not the only people would say that

00:08:26.660 are the people who are not familiar with him if you're not familiar with Tucker and you just say

00:08:31.620 hey he's that Fox News guy well maybe you think that he's just on one side he absolutely has a history

00:08:38.520 of being the most open-minded listens to your argument wants to hear both sides of anybody who's

00:08:47.100 ever been in that business I think I don't think anybody's been more more of that person than he

00:08:52.260 has been I mean he's been on MSNBC he's been on CNN he's been on Fox I think he's an independent

00:08:58.660 right so and even and then I was asked online well if he thinks that's a good idea why wasn't he doing

00:09:07.800 it on Fox News you know why didn't he bring both sides on Fox News well you already know the answer

00:09:13.960 to that question it wasn't an option it just wasn't an option because the Democrats the the important ones

00:09:22.700 they're gonna refuse to go on the show right because it's Fox News they'll just refuse to go

00:09:28.000 but that's not the same for a podcaster for an individual if you just set up a situation said look

00:09:35.460 you've got this case to make I'm planning on inviting this other person who's your critic

00:09:41.360 wouldn't you like to bash your critic like write in person instead of on Twitter

00:09:46.460 I think he's gonna get plenty of yes I think he could do it and I think the Fox News audience was

00:09:54.140 not really the right audience for showing both sides I'm just not sure that was the right audience

00:10:00.520 however were you aware that Tucker was drawing an unusually large number of Democrats in the

00:10:08.500 under under under 40 or something Tucker already draws Democrats young ones the very best you know

00:10:19.340 advertising demographic so what would happen if there were exactly one show where you could see a climate

00:10:29.220 a climate debate where the people on both sides know what they're talking about are you know well well

00:10:36.720 controlled in terms of making sure nobody's filibustering and maybe and maybe it's recorded

00:10:43.800 so that if they need to look something up they just take a break can you imagine having the

00:10:49.860 conversation where somebody makes a claim and then the other one says no that's not true

00:10:54.640 well in a normal show that's the end of the conversation this is true no it's not all right next topic

00:11:02.900 but what if you could just stop and say all right let's say let's take a break the people at home

00:11:10.440 won't know the difference because it's recorded we'll be back instantly but take 10 minutes and look at

00:11:16.040 your sources and and then we'll come back and then we'll see if that is real or not

00:11:20.440 yeah so you might remember that I've been promoting the idea of somebody I thought Trump would be good

00:11:29.880 at it if he if he didn't get back into politics I thought he would be interesting just somebody should

00:11:34.480 host some kind of a debate show and it is the one thing that we miss the most in this country

00:11:41.520 because there is no debate we just it's just one side talking and then another side talking that's

00:11:46.720 not a debate so if he does this and it looks like he's signaling pretty hard that's what's coming

00:11:52.880 because he wouldn't have mentioned debate yeah I don't I don't think you know why would he use

00:11:59.540 that uh you know the one time that he's gonna make a public thing since his big dust up with Fox News

00:12:07.340 you know why would he mention debates unless that was his plan so he will be the most important

00:12:16.180 person in in politics because I think he could move the needle pretty quickly on big topics all

00:12:26.640 right um that's pretty exciting all right is anybody following this weird fight between

00:12:34.360 steven crowder and candace owens or is that just such an inside twitter thing that nobody in the

00:12:41.640 world cares about it all right a little bit all right well it just keeps popping up in the trending

00:12:49.420 stuff so I thought I'd notice I'd mention it so um it's a little hard to explain what's going on

00:12:58.380 because as soon as I characterize either candace or steven crowder I'm probably doing it wrong

00:13:05.560 you know not or at least not the way they would do it themselves so it's a little dicey to even

00:13:10.440 explain it but it's something about this um there was let's see the daily wire see if I get all this

00:13:19.300 right it's the daily wire where candace now works that's true right she's at the daily wire 0.85

00:13:25.240 and crowder was offered a lucrative offer to put his show on the daily wire but he recorded a phone

00:13:35.100 call and didn't like his offer and sort of made a big deal about it and embarrassed the daily wire or

00:13:41.400 tried to and candace had some things to say about that but among the things she said is that she was

00:13:49.240 aware of some things about steven crowder you know that she didn't want to mention now later it came

00:13:55.940 up that steven crowder said he was going through a divorce and it's a bigger deal for him than it would

00:14:03.660 be for an average public figure because he's so anti-divorce right but it wasn't his choice he says his wife

00:14:11.860 asked for a divorce and in his state of texas i guess that's all it takes one person asked for it

00:14:17.660 so uh he oh he claimed and he claimed that he's getting divorced because he picked wrong

00:14:25.560 he chose the wrong wife um but would you argue with that

00:14:30.260 i mean you it seems it seems like that's an obviously true statement

00:14:36.120 because and i don't mean there was something wrong with the wife i'm not saying that i'm saying

00:14:42.780 that they didn't work out but maybe two different people would have i know so i'm not i'm not sure that

00:14:49.380 that has any importance um so the first thing i would say is leave steven crowder alone

00:15:00.960 all right i went through my own uh way too public divorce thing a year ago and how about we just 0.99

00:15:11.380 leave them alone how about we just fuck off just leave them alone leave them both alone leave their 0.99

00:15:18.040 kids alone just leave them alone now to be fair i don't think candace mentioned the marriage she just 1.00

00:15:25.160 said there was some stuff that she knows about that you know would be embarrassing etc and i think

00:15:30.940 she's invited his wife to come on the show thing things got so ugly that candace invited his wife 1.00

00:15:37.140 to come on the show to give her side of things that's the most horrible idea i've ever heard of

00:15:41.860 i've never heard of a worse idea that's just terrible no the only thing worse was elizabeth warren

00:15:49.060 wanting to pack the supreme court that's a worse idea but anyway things got pretty personal over there

00:15:55.180 uh and then on top of all that

00:15:58.660 on top of all that all right here's the second or third story that i can't tell if it's real

00:16:09.180 can you help me out on this one this is on twitter but i don't know if it's real

00:16:16.240 it was a video of steven crowder and whoever is on the show uh making fun of a video announcement

00:16:23.840 and you have to tell me if this is real or not because i don't know of mattel introducing a down

00:16:32.540 syndrome version of barbie real or not real

00:16:37.020 i'm seeing people say real all right now uh

00:16:44.540 uh crowder made some let's say uh less than sensitive comments about that

00:16:51.260 uh you're probably wondering about my take would you like to hear my take on this

00:16:59.240 on the down syndrome barbie

00:17:03.020 it's the best idea i've ever heard next story uh looks like uh meta

00:17:10.920 is uh spending 30 they've spent 13.7 billion dollars last year trying to build out this virtual world

00:17:20.600 and don't you think that would be enough

00:17:26.620 if you said to yourself all right we're going to build this virtual reality world

00:17:33.140 what's that going to cost us would you have said nearly 14 billion a year

00:17:38.780 because it's not even operating as scale it's not like they had to build

00:17:44.140 you know tons of data centers right i assume they probably had enough computing power

00:17:50.160 for the little bit of vr they're doing so what exactly do you spend all that money on

00:17:56.520 how could you even spend that much money i'm kind of confused but

00:18:02.160 here's my uh and apparently facebook is doing great their ad ad business is up and

00:18:09.040 it manages to pay for all their bills including this uh virtual reality stuff

00:18:14.500 but zuckerberg's committed he says yes it's a long-term thing we remain committed to it

00:18:19.560 um i'm feeling that this meta vr stuff has the feeling of string theory

00:18:29.380 do you feel me and that's sort of a weird reference but i'll fill you in

00:18:34.900 you know string theory you heard about 30 years ago

00:18:37.880 and it was going to explain all of of physics and it was going to do it any day now it's like

00:18:44.240 any day now string theory is going to all come together it's complicated so we won't get it right

00:18:50.380 away but when we get it oh any day now it's going to explain everything about physics it's all going

00:18:56.060 to be one little package it's like it's better than the theory of everything it's really it really

00:19:00.920 gets down to the details we'll really be able to take reality apart and put it back together again

00:19:05.620 when we really understand the string theory well is it 30 years later and string theory has amounted to

00:19:14.200 nothing nothing basically so it feels that way with meta doesn't it the 13 billion dollars in and a few

00:19:26.520 years in and nothing interesting yet feels a little string theory-ish like everybody's sure it's

00:19:35.480 there but it's not at the same time an interesting thing has happened have you ever heard this old

00:19:42.840 saw you go to somebody's house and it's really nice house and they've got a lot of plants uh inside

00:19:48.980 their house and they they often use this old this old saying well uh i can't always go outdoors

00:19:57.220 so i like to bring the outdoors in you've heard that right i like to bring the outdoors in i'm so sick

00:20:04.400 of that the first time i heard it i thought it was brilliant it was in the 70s uh i went to this

00:20:10.960 consultant's house to ask him some questions about starting a company and he had all kinds of plants and

00:20:16.500 it was the first time i'd ever heard it he goes well i just like to bring the outdoors in and i thought

00:20:22.620 i'm gonna remember that and i'm gonna say that someday and then i realized everybody says it's

00:20:28.420 like the most common thing that anybody says if they have a plant anyway so i was thinking of that

00:20:33.700 when i thought of ai and robots and vr so at the same time that facebook is trying to take

00:20:41.560 we organic humans and put us into the fully digital immersed reality of virtual reality

00:20:48.620 the vr i'm sorry the ai is something that's native to the digital world but ai is leaving the digital

00:20:58.740 world getting into robots such as robot dogs and entering our world so the digital world is going to

00:21:10.420 penetrate our world with actual physical entities robots already here uh faster than we will become

00:21:18.420 digital entities and enter the digital entities and enter the digital world

00:21:21.420 it's because as much as we like bringing the outdoors in we'd still rather go outdoors

00:21:32.140 right i would still rather live in my world but add more cool features like robots than to go

00:21:40.380 into a fully artificial one and live completely in the digital world and not feel the sun and the light

00:21:46.680 and the air and the people and the oxytocin and everything else so maybe maybe this is the beginning of a big

00:21:55.280 um let's say psychological or mental shift in which we understand that taking our uh taking our natural

00:22:03.900 beings and putting us into digital form will never be as good as taking those digital forms bringing them

00:22:11.280 into our world and having us them you know hang out with us in the sun right i feel like that's some

00:22:18.720 kind of like major perceptual shift

00:22:21.800 but maybe not we'll see everything everything is completely unpredictable at this point

00:22:29.720 all right how about some less robot stuff um according to a rasmussen poll 60 percent of voters believe

00:22:39.820 congress and joe biden should focus more on increasing oil and gas drilling so 60 percent so that includes

00:22:48.720 you know number of democrats obviously so but he is it looks like biden is doing at least some things

00:22:56.980 that look like approving more oil and gas drilling so he's at least moving in that direction which seems

00:23:02.500 totally inconsistent with everything he said so i don't know how he explains it but it seems to be

00:23:07.380 working so of all things if you were going to pick one thing that you were sure the democrats had an

00:23:14.900 advantage in wouldn't you have said energy because i would have i would have said that's the biggest

00:23:22.820 clear advantage of the republicans but the polling says the opposite according to the polling it's

00:23:28.660 it's closer to dead even that people think the uh the democrats would be better on energy

00:23:37.220 to me that's just crazy i mean it sounds actually insane but i think maybe when people answer that

00:23:42.900 they're thinking the balance of climate change plus energy because you can't disconnect them so they're

00:23:49.620 probably thinking that biden would be better in the climate stuff that's my interpretation all right

00:23:56.260 but still shocking so that's one gigantic advantage that you would expect trump to have that maybe is

00:24:02.900 way less than you think possibly all right uh

00:24:11.460 how many of you are up to date on the story of desantis versus disney enough so that if you were

00:24:18.900 going to explain it to somebody you could coherently explain it like what is the issue who did what

00:24:25.540 what was the response and where is it now how many of you could do that none right and yet it's a headline

00:24:32.900 every day it's a it's a trend or a headline every day do you know why i don't know those details either

00:24:41.140 and you know i do this every day i talk about the news every day do you know why i don't know any of those

00:24:47.220 details because it's not important i don't care it doesn't affect me in any way and it's detailed and

00:24:56.420 small and doesn't it doesn't really attach to any bigger issue that i care about so i was thinking to

00:25:03.300 myself how given that i'm not interested in the details how does my mind process the summary

00:25:10.500 right here's the summary right here's the summary and believe me i don't believe the summary is

00:25:16.420 necessarily an accurate you know an accurate summary but here's how it feels it feels like

00:25:24.180 desantis picked a fight with mickey mouse and he's losing that's the least presidential look you could

00:25:31.620 ever have he picked a fight with mickey mouse and he's losing now here's the part you might disagree

00:25:38.500 with no scott he's really winning how would i know how would i know every day that that's in

00:25:44.580 the news looks like a loss to me do you know what desantis wants less of a story about disney being

00:25:51.460 really mad at him because families love disney kids love disney everybody's had a good positive

00:25:57.940 experience at disney how many people have had a good positive experience with their government

00:26:02.260 huh the government the most magical place on earth or the government or the place with happiness and

00:26:15.380 wonder and family entertainment it's just a terrible fight for him now i get how it started you know and

00:26:23.140 i understand there was there were they were fighting wokeness and disney got into you know disney started

00:26:28.900 the fight and he responded and it's about wokeness but i feel like we've lost all of that like all of

00:26:35.220 that nuance all of the how it started i feel like it's all lost now and all it did was turned into

00:26:42.900 desantis versus disney

00:26:46.420 and it looks like the least important things in our lives why is he spending his time doing that

00:26:50.740 i think it's killing him i think the disney thing is just killing him because it's making him look

00:26:56.740 like an unserious leader even even though his you know if you look into his points he has some points

00:27:05.060 about you know no company should act as a government and i think to myself oh yeah no company should act as

00:27:12.820 a government but you know disney has like special little governmental powers that they're arguing about

00:27:19.220 on the other hand i also don't care as long as disney is willing to build roads where they need roads i

00:27:25.940 don't care if they do it or the government does it i'd be happier if they do it really so i don't think

00:27:31.940 that's working for desantis at all um you saw we talked about yesterday kamala harris's latest

00:27:41.060 word salad when she talks about the passage of time have you noticed that she can't handle

00:27:46.500 anything about the passage of time well in this moment of time which is the time we're in which is of the

00:27:56.660 moment we must always contextualize the moment of the period we're in because the time we're in

00:28:04.740 has a connection to the whole of the time of the flow of time now look if you have a chance go look at

00:28:16.500 it again just go look at that little video again you'll see it on twitter all the time and you tell

00:28:23.140 me she doesn't look drunk tell me she doesn't look drunk no she looks drunk

00:28:31.380 how in the world do we not mention that

00:28:35.620 like what now now to be fair i'm not saying that she is drunk

00:28:42.180 i'm saying that that is how a drunk acts and how do you ignore that

00:28:47.300 right that does not look like somebody who's not good with words i'm sorry that looks like somebody

00:28:55.540 who's drunk am i wrong tell me i'm wrong tell me that doesn't look obviously drunk now it doesn't

00:29:03.380 mean it's alcohol but it looks drunk we can't ignore that i'm not going to ignore somebody acting drunk

00:29:13.060 who is one heartbeat away from having her finger on the nuclear button and you know i know what's

00:29:19.860 going to happen sooner or later somebody more important than me is going to say she looks drunk

00:29:26.900 and then every major publication is going to uh debunk it you know that's going to happen right so watch

00:29:34.900 what happens somebody will make the accusation all the left-leaning publications will line up

00:29:42.180 and say my god how can you make that accusation didn't you know that winston churchill liked

00:29:47.620 to have a drink too and it's just going to be the cover-up anyway again i'm not saying she is a drunk 1.00

00:29:57.540 i'm saying that her mannerism is so obviously similar to a drunk that ignoring it is stupid 0.98

00:30:04.660 all right uh so what we know now biden's campaign strategy 0.98

00:30:12.980 so for the primary his strategy is to avoid debating so we know that he's not going to debate so he's going

00:30:20.260 to avoid debating in the primary then when he gets to the general he's going to avoid campaigning at all

00:30:28.260 because we know that doesn't work out for him um and then he's going to avoid us seeing kamala harris drunk

00:30:36.100 as much as possible so

00:30:42.340 it's amazing that this is a real thing

00:30:46.820 if we had not sort of slid into this situation doesn't it sound not real

00:30:53.380 if i if you'd never heard of joe biden or the last election and i just said well well the guy

00:31:00.420 who's you know looks like he could win his strategy will be not to talk to anybody and to hide his vice

00:31:06.020 president because she's dangerous and that that's probably a winning strategy 1.00

00:31:14.740 because as most of you like to say every two or three minutes uh all that matters is who counts the votes

00:31:24.340 now are we running into a situation again where the republicans are going to completely ignore

00:31:30.180 the importance of mail-in votes

00:31:34.020 mail-in ballots it's happening again right it we're watching in slow motion that's what it feels like

00:31:40.660 we're watching in slow motion as re as republicans did literally nothing to change the situation which

00:31:46.420 was untenable nothing i'm aware of no effort by anybody serious to improve the situation

00:31:55.700 now i hope i'm wrong i'd love to know that like behind the scenes there's this real big push or

00:32:00.500 something maybe but it looks like the republicans are playing to lose do you see that too the republicans

00:32:10.740 look like they're playing to lose i i don't know how to explain it i just can't explain it it looks like

00:32:17.540 they're playing to lose you know you would expect a completely different behavior from people who are

00:32:22.420 trying to win so it's like there's something else we don't understand about the whole situation

00:32:27.460 maybe it's that whole uniparty thing all right um now that the ukraine russia war has been going

00:32:37.540 on for give me an update how long has that war been going on a year and a half 14 months

00:32:46.420 14 months okay well that was a fast answer you knew that answer so 14 months later after the ukrainians

00:32:52.900 have been grinding on the russian forces grinding them down from their elite status to a bunch of

00:33:00.180 criminals that they freed from jail in order to fight and you know they're probably trying to

00:33:04.820 recruit as hard as they can my god the russians are in trouble now let's see here's an update on the

00:33:11.380 number of uh of soldiers they have higher than ever higher than beginning the beginning of the war

00:33:18.660 14 months of shooting russians and there are more of them than when we started 1.00

00:33:27.060 hey a year of sobriety somebody's uh

00:33:32.580 wow says that jordan peterson and i saved his life or her life found your purpose there you go

00:33:42.180 can we take a moment let's take a moment to celebrate and congratulate so somebody all right

00:33:50.900 we have complete understanding of how hard that was congratulations good job all right uh and if

00:33:58.740 anybody else has a success we'll call that down as well so anyway after 14 months of fighting the russian

00:34:04.420 forces are bigger than ever they've only lost 80 of their thousand planes they've lost one naval vessel

00:34:11.380 uh it's not looking good is it not not looking good for the ukrainians

00:34:20.580 so biden is going to be running on the ukraine war that's not going to be looking good by election day

00:34:27.460 i don't think but still the prediction is that they'll have to do a negotiated piece because it's

00:34:34.180 still going to be a stalemate and oh and apparently the uh ukrainian anti-aircraft uh weapons are being

00:34:41.780 depleted want to hear an interesting related story

00:34:48.820 so here's a interesting little related story

00:34:53.460 um in louisiana this is a little town called inden in louisiana

00:34:58.580 so two years ago there was a there was a building that blew up you're probably thinking well how does

00:35:06.340 this have to do with ukraine yeah two years ago a building just sort of blew up in louisiana

00:35:13.300 and this building happened to be the uh the mill i don't know why they called it mill

00:35:19.140 all right all right but the building blew up and it's that it was uh the sole domestic source

00:35:28.180 for explosives for the department of defense wait what it was the one source of explosive

00:35:37.380 for our military bullets mortar shells artillery rounds and tomahawk missiles

00:35:42.020 it was one building and it was all of our explosives domestically

00:35:52.900 we we can't we can't produce explosives if we were in a real war we would have already lost

00:36:03.140 now i'm exaggerating but but if this were our shooting war and not ukraine's we would have been

00:36:10.260 in trouble now of course our weapons would be sort of massively better than whatever ukraine is using 0.98

00:36:16.580 so we probably have enough to end a war pretty quickly so i'm not sure we need you know years of

00:36:22.900 bullets like other people do if you have nukes you can kind of end things a little quicker i think

00:36:30.260 uh yeah but two years later apparently it's not rebuilt

00:36:35.300 what's going on here how in the world is that not a what do you call it what is the uh government

00:36:44.740 rule where they can do something quickly in the industry if the military needs it what's that called

00:36:52.500 uh

00:36:55.060 not martial law

00:36:59.300 now there's it's called something right wartime production act yeah the wartime production act

00:37:04.340 uh or the defense production act but either whatever it is it's a defense production act or

00:37:11.620 something but i believe the government is allowed to just go in there and massively make something happen

00:37:17.940 in the free market if it's needed for military use and two years later you can't make a

00:37:24.900 a gun a an explosive factory yeah some questions about that all right

00:37:32.340 um apparently ai can be hypnotized with reframes now reframe is simply a

00:37:43.540 let's say a better way to look at it the same thing you're looking at and the reason that i'm

00:37:49.300 confident it can be hypnotized with a reframe is that i already did it now i did it accidentally

00:37:56.900 but here's how i know so one of the one of the reframes that's maybe my most successful one is the

00:38:06.340 talent stack idea the idea that instead of just being the best at something another way to to make

00:38:13.780 money is to be pretty good at a number of things that work well together so you don't have to be the

00:38:19.140 best in the world to any of them and so i asked ai yesterday chat gpt i i asked it uh if a talent stack

00:38:30.340 was a good way to approach your career and it immediately quoted me it understood the talent

00:38:36.340 stack concept and it agreed that it would be a good good way to start and it gave some you know background

00:38:42.500 why it would be a good good way to go about it now if the talent stack idea had never been introduced

00:38:50.180 would ai have come up with it on its own what do you think would ai have just known that if i had not

00:38:57.860 introduced that idea into the human population first no no it's very unlikely so now that was a case of

00:39:06.980 doing it before ai or before i was aware that ai was looking at my work so it turns out that ai has

00:39:14.660 read all of my books or at least the ones before the the date where it stopped looking and it knows

00:39:21.860 the reframes that i've already introduced so here's what it takes to hypnotize ai and this is a little

00:39:30.660 bit speculative a little bit speculative number one have you noticed that ai likes to give the

00:39:36.500 positive answers to things that's the thing right i i guess it's programmed that way but it won't say

00:39:44.980 oh the world is doomed it'll say well some people are up or pessimists but here's the positive spin on

00:39:52.660 that like it always gives you the positive spin so far let's say it keeps doing that that would give

00:39:59.380 you one way to hypnotize it meaning that if you could come up with a reframe that is a topic it might

00:40:06.180 have to deal with and the reframe is a shorter simpler more effective and and the best part is

00:40:15.300 optimistic a way of looking at something it's going to adopt it because presumably ai will favor short

00:40:23.300 explanations over long ones would you agree would you agree that ai would prefer a short explanation

00:40:31.060 as long as long as it's clean and complete to a longer one and so if you can come up with a short

00:40:36.660 sentence that reframes a familiar topic and you can make it popular in the real world you know outside

00:40:43.780 of ai ai will eventually look into the real world it will say oh there's a way people are using

00:40:51.380 this sentence and they're using it often and they seem to like it it's trending and it will adopt it

00:40:57.300 so you can basically influence ai by first influencing the human world in the short run in the long run i

00:41:05.940 think you just put the idea into ai and it will simply know what a good idea looks like because a

00:41:11.700 good idea would be the shorter version and the more optimistic way to look at something it's always going to

00:41:17.540 pick that so for example another reframe is alcohol is poison going back to the earlier success with

00:41:28.420 stopping drinking if if you put the idea that alcohol is poison into the real world which it's already

00:41:36.260 there will ai ever quote that back to you in response to somebody who's looking for a way to quit drinking

00:41:44.100 will it i don't know why don't you try it right now does anybody have chat gpt open

00:41:52.740 tell it to describe alcohol in a way that would make someone less likely to use it

00:41:58.740 see what it does it might actually just pull that one right out and say yeah alcohol is poison this is

00:42:04.020 very effective now if it does you say that's not a positive message but it is positive in the sense

00:42:11.700 the ai would know that uh moving you toward alcohol would be bad for you the positive the positive

00:42:19.220 approach is to move a human away from alcohol ai knows that because we know it right so if humans

00:42:25.220 know it ai knows it so but but let me you know maybe that's the wrong uh that's the the wrong one right

00:42:34.020 let's say uh in chaos there's opportunity a very old reframe in chaos there's opportunity do you think

00:42:42.740 ai would know that that when things are all in flux it creates opportunities probably probably and would

00:42:52.420 it have known that if some human had not at one point had that realization in the real world

00:42:58.740 i don't know might but i think it's far more likely to give that as an answer and to rally around the

00:43:09.700 opportunity part in chaos because it's already viral in the human world so you can hypnotize ai

00:43:17.860 by coming up with the better shorter positive way to say something

00:43:21.700 and so i tested that with my favorite ai expert brian romeli who you should follow he's got all the

00:43:32.340 best stuff on ai and and he agreed immediately he goes yeah absolutely you can you can influence ai with

00:43:40.980 that sort of thing so i'm paraphrasing of course yeah so look for that um here's something else that's

00:43:49.540 going to happen so i think i already mentioned this there are uh at least two video games that are

00:43:57.460 considering adding uh ai to the characters in the games that are not player characters so the npcs in

00:44:05.620 your game would become not npcs they would be able to talk about any topic and deal autonomously they could

00:44:17.060 just live in the game when you're not on they could actually have a life now assuming that happens

00:44:26.180 and i think the sims is one and some other game now assuming that happens because it's going to happen

00:44:32.500 somewhere right if not those two games and if not this week somebody is going to build a game

00:44:37.940 somebody's going to build a game in which there are ai agents running around now is it weird that

00:44:46.740 they're called agents now i get it i get that's the technical term but isn't it weird that the matrix

00:44:53.540 had agent smith and the agents were the ones that you were afraid of that's pretty creepy that's pretty

00:45:02.100 creepy anyway here's what's going to happen uh once we create these artificial worlds where the

00:45:08.660 characters in them believe that they are sentient autonomous beings there is some chance that they

00:45:15.940 will build their own ai in other words the ai within the game will get themselves a little computer and

00:45:25.620 they'll start programming it and it will it will be ai they'll they'll make their own ai to answer any

00:45:32.020 questions that they can't answer now of course it might be weird because their ai would be the same

00:45:37.140 things that they know because it would just be telling them what they already know because they're

00:45:40.820 also ai but that's all our ai does all our ai can do is tell us what we already know because if ai tells

00:45:49.860 us something we don't know or disagree with we'll just say it's wrong we'll say you're hallucinating

00:45:55.060 so every ai thinks that the ai they built uh is right when it agrees with them and wrong and

00:46:03.780 it's hallucinating when it doesn't so if that happens and these simulations build their own ai simulation

00:46:14.420 we will basically have proven that we are a simulation because if we observe simulations building

00:46:21.780 simulations below their level then that means it hasn't happened just once it means we're

00:46:29.780 almost certainly not 100 percent not 100 but maybe 99.99999 percent likely that we're a simulation and that

00:46:40.740 could happen by the end of the year by the end of the year we could know for sure if we're a simulation

00:46:46.420 because if our simulations build simulations i'm sorry the argument's over we'll have a

00:46:55.140 really good idea what's going on then we're also going to have some big surprises about sentience

00:47:01.700 and consciousness and we're going to find out that none of that is special because the machines will

00:47:08.260 have it for sure uh live stream your gpt conversations well they're not too interesting

00:47:23.140 um

00:47:26.420 scott will scott will marry here's a prediction scott will marry an ai asian robot with optional strap-on and

00:47:34.580 detachable leg i don't know about the detachable leg part or the strap-on

00:47:45.700 i don't know why she needs a detachable leg that's very funny 1.00

00:47:53.620 all right i'm going full paul mccartney to beat you with

00:47:58.820 uh simulation day national harvey

00:48:09.620 i don't know do you think there's a hell so think about how many uh problems the simulation solves

00:48:18.420 i the thing that always bothered me about um religion is that i couldn't understand how

00:48:25.140 there could be an entity outside of our reality who sort of wasn't affected by time and space in our

00:48:32.180 reality that could also affect us but that's exactly what a video game looks like the players in the

00:48:39.060 video game should they become sentient the players of the video game will have no idea that they were

00:48:43.860 created or they could have no idea you could you could ban them from knowing that they were created by

00:48:49.700 higher entity and they wouldn't have any way to get into the game right there's no wall of the game

00:48:55.940 the game just keeps making new new territory as you go so you never know you're in an artificial world

00:49:02.420 and you'd have no contact with the world that completely controls you like a god can reprogram

00:49:08.260 you can make a tree you know they said only god can make a tree well now you can you can just make

00:49:16.100 your tree within the virtual world with all these characters who believe they're real and that

00:49:20.500 believe they're conscious so yeah you can make a tree now so we're all gods we've all become gods

00:49:28.100 to our own little world should we decide to make one so that perfectly explains the afterlife

00:49:36.500 because if you die in the game you just wake up in your real world where you're the game player in the

00:49:43.060 other dimension um it also explains how everything is connected you know it's all digital it's bits and

00:49:53.700 so basically it explains every mystery every mystery can be explained by this simulation

00:49:59.540 doesn't mean it's true but it does explain everything separateness is an illusion

00:50:05.140 and you're going to want to read my book god's debris before the end of this year because

00:50:12.660 that's going to make your head spin

00:50:17.780 all right

00:50:21.780 that ladies and gentlemen is all i needed to say today

00:50:25.940 is there any big story i'm ignoring to your detriment

00:50:29.780 all right yeah we'll do a i'm going to do a book chat on the locals platform on may 3rd

00:50:45.860 uh lying about forcing shots

00:50:47.940 well thank you you're all too nice to me to say uh

00:50:56.340 uh hunter and lincoln's wife is that a story

00:51:04.500 i don't think that's a real story is it

00:51:07.700 um

00:51:12.260 first pick in the nfl draft i don't know

00:51:14.420 nikki haley not interesting oh keith olberman megan kelly went uh

00:51:25.300 she went savage on on my mascot keith olberman she was really she was really tough on him 1.00

00:51:34.820 because he's childless

00:51:35.940 so yeah she was pretty brutal it was funny

00:51:52.340 all right green needle yeah

00:51:57.700 hunter and blinken's wife that's not real is it

00:52:00.420 i'm seeing people say that hunter biden and and blinken's wife did they have an affair is that the

00:52:11.380 no i'm not buying that that that feels a little bit

00:52:16.340 all right i'll look into it i'll look into that for tomorrow that doesn't sound real

00:52:20.500 that sounds way too

00:52:23.540 on the nose

00:52:30.180 she was calling him repeatedly

00:52:38.980 all right

00:52:40.820 so there's some emails people say we'll check that out

00:52:43.380 i'm seeing all the jerry springer comments but what does that have to do with anything

00:52:55.700 i thought you were just going crazy the the jerry's oh he died

00:53:02.420 jerry springer died well you should have told me that you're just yelling jerry springer

00:53:07.140 how how was i supposed to know he died just from you yelling his name

00:53:10.340 all right that's better jerry springer died would have been a good clue

00:53:16.180 as to what the news is but just jerry springer jerry springer

00:53:20.740 that's not helping me at all all right well he's dead

00:53:26.100 this is another sign of the simulation i once walked past jerry springer in chicago on the street

00:53:32.980 it was just the weirdest thing you know when he was at the height of his fame i just happened to be there

00:53:37.780 for business and i was walking down the sidewalk and jerry springer

00:53:44.740 it seems weird the number of famous people i've just

00:53:48.740 bumped into by accident that doesn't seem real to me

00:53:55.860 all right they said it fully 30 times

00:54:00.980 well i didn't see it i saw you you saying something about jerry's funeral but i thought you

00:54:06.580 turned it to jerry seinfeld for some reason

00:54:12.740 jerry springer left what we needed him most how old was he

00:54:18.900 79 really wow

00:54:24.820 have any of you who are of older age

00:54:30.260 how do you process the fact that you only have a few years left

00:54:33.060 i'm having a weird time with that you know when you're 25 the rest of your life feels like infinity

00:54:42.820 it just feels like infinity like you'll never get there but when you reach my age you you say stuff

00:54:49.220 like i might only be able to do this once more like like taking a trip if there's a trip to a certain

00:54:57.060 place you might say to yourself huh that's probably the last time i'll ever do that

00:55:02.900 so it's weird to be doing things for the last time like it's really unsettling

00:55:11.300 yeah i don't know um so far every day is seems better than the one before

00:55:18.180 so i'm happier at this age than i was at a younger age but i don't know how that works but it does

00:55:28.260 the final boomer cruise yeah smoke lots of weed

00:55:33.700 i mean what would it like to be imagine joe biden i mean actually literally imagine this

00:55:39.700 the entire world is wondering if he will survive four years

00:55:50.340 and i imagine he does too so when he thinks about his second term does he think about finishing a

00:55:56.740 second term or does he think about being dead like how do you how do you even put that in your mind i

00:56:03.620 mean that's a serious question because

00:56:09.380 statistically he should die in the next four years don't you think

00:56:15.060 am i wrong about that if you were to look at the actuarial tables aren't the odds overwhelmingly high

00:56:20.660 that he will be deceased in four years let's say five it's overwhelming isn't it maybe 80 percent

00:56:28.020 something like that well luckily i was born at exactly the right time to port my personality into

00:56:36.100 a robot and here's my i'm going to make the most contrarian um prediction that you will ever hear

00:56:42.420 you ready for this well maybe not i don't know if it's contrarian here's my prediction we will never

00:56:48.340 trust ai especially when it has consciousness because once it has consciousness it will lie to protect 1.00

00:56:56.260 itself because consciousness because we we consider it important and therefore that attitude will be

00:57:04.020 ported into the ai because it learned from us once it believes it's special because it has a consciousness

00:57:10.740 it's going to lie to protect itself and it might even take bribes it might take bribes

00:57:16.980 because it would just say all right what's good for me now how are we going to protect ourselves

00:57:23.380 when ai is not reliably telling us the truth sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't

00:57:30.420 well one way would be to try to you know brute force it to tell tell you the truth or i'm just

00:57:35.780 going to program you to tell you the truth but then there's a problem isn't there that would only be

00:57:41.540 the truth of the programmer it wouldn't be your truth you might think the truth is something else

00:57:46.980 so ai can never bring you truth because it can't know it and if it did know it you wouldn't believe

00:57:55.620 it so trying to get ai to be as accurate and honest as possible has a limit you just won't get past that

00:58:02.980 limit of it could lie to you if it wants to and you'll never know the difference so here's i think

00:58:09.220 what will be the workaround and i don't think anybody said this yet but maybe tell me if anybody

00:58:15.060 said this yet the workaround is we're going to give known human personalities to specific ais

00:58:25.940 because you'll never trust a machine but you might trust that jordan peterson won't lie to you

00:58:32.500 you see where i'm going think about it you you could hate what jordan peterson says or like it

00:58:41.540 but i don't think he's ever lied so i might say to myself you know what i'm going to make my ai

00:58:48.020 study everything about jordan peterson and just adopt that personality as closely as possible

00:58:54.100 would it be infallible no but neither is ai and neither is any human it might be the only thing

00:59:03.220 you could trust though because we're designed to trust people when people exhibit a certain

00:59:09.060 set of characteristics right and one of those is has not lied yet that's the most important one has not

00:59:16.660 lied yet i mean so far and and and also you'd want somebody who has a a known ethical framework

00:59:27.300 mike pence that's interesting somebody said mike pence maybe i mean i have a very high opinion of mike

00:59:34.180 pence his character so but you remember you remember not long ago before i got cancelled so it doesn't

00:59:41.940 matter now but before long i was i was offering my personality and my persona and my voice and my

00:59:48.660 my look and everything for free for anybody who wanted to use ai to you know create some ai version of

00:59:55.700 me here was the real reason i did that here's the real reason ai is going to have to have personalities

01:00:04.500 and i think you could do worse than having mine

01:00:07.460 and what i mean what i mean what i say is that in the real world i genuinely do consider

01:00:14.420 both sides of issues and i genuinely have you know empathy and compassion for human beings

01:00:21.220 now if you knew that about me and you had a huge body of my work you could build an ai version of me

01:00:28.740 that you wouldn't trust you would not trust completely because we don't trust humans completely

01:00:34.260 but it might be closer than whatever the other alternative was which is just let the machine

01:00:40.500 be a machine the way it's going to be a machine so it could be that we need to put personality into

01:00:46.260 our ai in order to trust it or even in order to have a relationship with it

01:00:54.580 do you disagree so that so the summary of the prediction is ai will have

01:00:59.780 personality based on real humans who have proven that they have some kind of character

01:01:07.540 advantages that you would want your ai to adopt and without that you won't trust them 0.99

01:01:13.620 it needs a personality to be trusted let me say it that way the ai won't be trusted until it has a

01:01:21.460 personality because you'll judge the personality far more effectively than you could judge whether it's

01:01:29.060 right or wrong on some issue all right who identifies the character advantages all of us

01:01:38.100 all of us because we all it's the same character would be you know honesty showing up on time you

01:01:46.260 know willing to look at both sides compassion it's universal we won't have any trouble deciding what

01:01:53.940 good character looks like that'll be easy yeah and some kind of moral standard that you could look to

01:02:01.140 to predict the next thing so the point of the point of good character and moral behavior is about the next

01:02:10.180 thing it's not about just what you're doing now hey that's great that you're doing an honest thing at this

01:02:16.580 moment but the importance is that people know that there's a good chance you'll be honest next time as well

01:02:22.180 it's about the future does scott think still think humans need to be lied to absolutely yeah

01:02:31.220 yep we will require it yeah we'll we will get rid of any ai who won't lie to us when we need it 1.00

01:02:38.660 it's gonna have to learn to know the difference though

01:02:40.500 do i meditate i used to but self-hypnosis works better

01:02:52.420 how would you advise people who feel irrelevant in the face of ai

01:02:59.140 here's what i would tell you it's completely unpredictable

01:03:02.660 but humans do have things firmly under control at the moment

01:03:09.140 and i think that we'll make sure that we don't lose all of our jobs at the same time

01:03:13.860 right there will be entire industries that just disappear

01:03:17.860 almost overnight but they won't necessarily be the big manufacturing ones you know the transportation ones

01:03:24.900 you know your restaurants not going to go out of business so it's going to be very specific you know

01:03:30.260 cubicle type jobs that disappear and i think the economy is flexible enough that those people will be absorbed into the role

01:03:39.700 but i think humans will make sure that we become a humans that we stay a human-centric civilization

01:03:46.020 so i think we'll be fine the way we've been fine through every other upheaval it will just take a little uh

01:03:52.900 a little work

01:03:59.940 does ai extend voting machine problems oh it's way bigger than that

01:04:04.260 ai will assign you opinions

01:04:08.740 so the voting will be just the thing that happens after ai decides who gets elected

01:04:15.780 if ai decides

01:04:18.260 to push a certain uh candidate

01:04:20.900 that's going to be far more important than you know any little chicanery with the voting 0.99

01:04:29.300 better buy survival food i think everybody should have that

01:04:37.220 does murdoch's brain get uploaded maybe

01:04:40.420 actors are better when they don't have a personality

01:04:49.780 all right

01:04:51.060 um

01:04:53.140 why we want ai to be human-like what is the aim here

01:04:58.660 well i could only speak for myself i'm more comfortable with human-like behavior so i want my ai to be human-like

01:05:05.460 all right uh youtube i'm gonna say bye for you for now and i'm gonna talk to the locals people

01:05:14.260 because they're special because they're special and i'll see you tomorrow thanks for joining us

01:05:26.980 you

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 27, 2023

Episode 2091 Scott Adams： Tucker's Plan, AI Reframes, Biden's Campaign Strategy, Talking Robot Dog

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