Episode 2099 Scott Adams： Tucker's Rumored Plans, Climate Surprise, Bud Light Lessons, Proud Boys
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 26 minutes
Words per Minute
140.7029
Summary
In this episode of the show, we talk about how smart this audience is, poll numbers, climate change, and why women have more of a fight left in them than we think. Featuring: Scott Adams, host of and host of The Daily Show with Rachel Maddow.
Transcript
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Good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of civilization. It's called
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Coffee with Scott Adams. You've never had a better time. You don't know that yet,
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but just hold on. Hold on. Stay alive. It's going to be amazing. We've got so many topics
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and such. You're going to be laughing. You're going to be crying. It will become a part of you.
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And if you'd like that experience to be, well, even better than I just explained,
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all you need is a cup or mug or glass, a tank or chalice or dine, a canteen jug or flask,
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a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. Join me now for the
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unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes everything better.
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It's called the simultaneous sip, and it's going to boost your dopamine, your oxytocin,
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and maybe your serotonin, too. And it goes like this. So good. All right, let's talk about the news.
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Today, we're going to start with a theme. The theme is, wait for it, how smart this audience is.
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You're going to be amazed at yourselves. Stop it. Stop it. You're answering the questions
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before I even ask them, how do you do it? But we're going to take it out of the realm of
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just polling to see if you can generalize this ability to other things. Not just polling,
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because I know you can guess poll answers miraculously. If you don't believe that this
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audience can guess the result of a poll without seeing it, I'm going to demonstrate it now.
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Watch. Rasmussen did a poll, a brand new poll, talking about Biden's age. And what percentage
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of the respondees, who were likely voters, don't think Biden's age poses a serious problem for his
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re-election chances? What? How did you do that? You're all correct. It's 25%. 25%. Wow. All right.
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But that was an easy one. That was an easy one. Don't get too cocky. I want to see if you can do this
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next one. Okay. The news is reporting that the ocean has warmed up considerably. Very unusual amount
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of warming somewhat suddenly. Here's your next question. Did the climate models predict this
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recent warming? How did you know that? No, they didn't. How did you know that?
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Well, how do you do this? How are you all right? Yes, the scientists are baffled because their models
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did not see this coming. All right. So that's happening. Let's see. There was a top prosecutor
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who quit in St. Louis. So this is one of your progressive prosecutors who was getting a lot
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of pushback for being soft on crime, according to her critics. So this is Ms. Gardner, Ms. Gardner.
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And she said she's going to quit. The pressure from the public and politicians was too great.
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And she's out of there. Now, interesting side note. Ms. Gardner was the city's first black circuit
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attorney. Here's the question for you. All right. This one's going to be tougher. Each of these
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questions will go harder than the one before. Did she claim that the real problem was racism against
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her? Go. You're three for three. How? How do you do it? You've got to teach me how you do this.
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Every one of these stories was a complete mystery to me. I had no idea how many people would think
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Joe Biden's age had no difference whatsoever, but it was 25 percent. And then I didn't see this coming.
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These are all surprises to me. All right. Let's talk about Bud Light. So apparently the pushback
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against the Anheuser-Busch company was pretty, pretty strong. I didn't realize how strong it was.
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But some of it is not advised, including a bomb threat on one of their facilities. I guess the
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Anheuser-Busch is giving bonuses to their drivers because the delivery people are losing money
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because there's not as many orders of Bud Light, I guess. Two top executives lost their job
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over the pushback because they made the special can for Dylan Mulvaney, trans activist, I guess
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you'd say, or a trans celebrity or something. And so I guess this raises an impact.
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Another question. Do men have any fight left in them? Yes. Turns out men have some fight
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left in them. Were you worried? Did it seem like men just gave up? Because I feel like we've
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gone through a period where men just said, well, fuck it. You can have whatever you want.
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All right. Sure. Just, just leave me alone. All right. You can have that. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
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Yeah. I don't like that, but you can do that. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. You can take something from
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me. Yeah. I don't mind. Yeah. The 2023, I'm going to declare as the fuck you year. This is the year
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that men said, fuck you. This is the year that men said, we're going to put the brakes on. It went too
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fucking far. Too far. I will quit my fucking job to make this point. Tucker Carlson might have some
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things to say. Bud Light is finding out that they pushed too far. Just too far. It's too fucking
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far. Congratulations. All right. Here's another one. See if you can guess. There's a new study about
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test scores. Do you think? All right. So there's a new result about test scores for eighth grade
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students in the US. You haven't seen the story probably, but see if you can guess. Did scores
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improve or get worse? Improve or get worse? You did it again. They got worse. It's amazing.
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I don't even think we need AI anymore. Clearly, you're all advanced intelligence because you know
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the news before it is even reported. How do you do it? Yeah. It's way worse. Now, one of the things
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that is not reported in this, but I can throw this in the mix from my own experience. Now,
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this may be a California thing more than other places, but remember California and some of the
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southern states, Florida, for example, even New York, big immigration destinations, and there are
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big population centers. Now, I can tell you that in the local schools where I live, there are a number
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of new immigrant students who don't speak English. You know, they're trying to learn English at the
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same time they're trying to go to school. Now, obviously, they're not going to do as well.
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Obviously, right? Through nobody's fault. Well, maybe Biden's fault. But I don't, I didn't see that
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calculated into the news. But I can verify that at least locally, it's a big drag on the average
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scores. Why would you leave that out of the reporting? Now, I don't know if that accounts for
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a little of it or a lot. I don't know. But it's very obviously in effect. If you put a bunch of
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people who can't speak English into English-speaking classes, what are you going to expect? It's going
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to be exactly what you think it is. Now, that doesn't mean there's any problem. It actually
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doesn't. Because the immigrants tend to be good citizens. Maybe it takes a generation before they
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catch up. But they're very intent on catching up. The people I don't worry about are the people who
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went to school, started from behind, but have every intention of improving their lives. Give me all of
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those. I'll take all the people who are very intent on improving their lives and willing to make great
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risk and sacrifice to do it. I like that. Give me some more of that. It is very expensive in the short
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run. But they're good people who are going to add a lot. So that's my opinion. All right.
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Glenn Beck had an interesting comment about the, I guess, the firing of Tucker Carlson, although he's
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technically not fired. He's just not on the show. And I didn't know this before, but BlackRock,
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BlackRock, the enormous financial entity, is the big promoter of ESG. So ESG would be equity,
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racial equity, other kinds of equity as well, and also environmental stuff. Now, what I didn't know
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is that BlackRock owns 45 million shares of Fox News. Is that a lot? 45 million shares? Is that enough
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to influence Fox News? Because what Glenn Beck left off is what percentage of the company that is.
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Is 45 million a lot? Would that give them some kind of control over management? I don't know. I actually
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don't know the answer to that. I don't know if that's a lot or not. I mean, it's a lot in raw
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money. I don't know if it's a lot in terms of control of the country. Okay. I knew this wouldn't
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take long. Some people are doing the math already. I have such a smart audience. So people are saying
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15%, 9%, somewhere in that range. That's somewhere in that range is definitely where they can start
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influencing management. Would you agree? If you own that much stock, you probably do have some
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little bit of control. No, I haven't mentioned Tucker's plans yet. So does this seem like a
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coincidence to you? Because Glenn Beck is surfacing this, and I think this is really good journalism,
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if I could call it that. Because this was what I needed to know. Like, this is right on point
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of understanding what's happening. Now, it might not be the big variable. So I'm not saying it's the
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one thing that caused things to happen. I'm just saying that if you were BlackRock, and the biggest
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problem you had with your ESG was what? What was the single biggest problem that BlackRock had?
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Tucker Carlson. He was their single biggest problem. Because he was, on a nightly basis,
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was injecting skepticism into climate and ESG. And he was the only one brave enough, you know,
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to walk out on that limb. So what did BlackRock do? Fairly recently, I don't know how many months
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or years ago, but fairly recently, they bought up all this stock in Fox News. And then Tucker Carlson
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went away. Is that a coincidence? The entity which he criticized the most bought an interest in his
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I don't know. I mean, I think you could make an argument that is not related. You can make the
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argument. But follow the money is just so predictable. You know, I'll remind you of this again.
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The weird thing about saying follow the money, and I write about this in my upcoming book,
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is that it works when it shouldn't work. Like your logic says, okay, I understand money is part of
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the story, but there's no way that the money is driving the story, because there's so many other
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bigger elements than money, right? There's the saving the world, and the future of the planet, and
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the children, and yeah, there are much bigger interests than just the money.
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But why does the money always predict what's going to happen if it's not the biggest variable?
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I don't know why. It's just an observation over the course of my life that people will argue any
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lofty ideals, but then if you want to predict where it's going to end up, just look at their wallet.
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It's all there. It goes where their wallet goes. People follow their wallet.
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They don't talk like it, but they do. So I'm not going to go so far as to say that
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this is the whole explanation of the Tucker Carlson thing.
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Oh, I'm just getting news that BlackRock has bought locals. No, that's not true.
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I just saw a comment there. That's not true. But it'd be funny if it happened.
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All right. So I'd keep an eye on that. There is reporting rumors, I say, just rumors, because
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I'm not sure that Tucker Carlson's made any decisions. He's probably just examining his
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options. But the rumors say that he's considering hosting some kind of forum for the GOP presidential
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candidates, or maybe just candidates, not necessarily just presidential.
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And what would you think of that? Suppose he does an interview show in which he focuses
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on Republicans, because why would he have to focus on Republicans? Because the Democrats
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won't show up. I'm sure he's going to invite them, don't you think? But realistically, they're
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not going to go. Now, what if he could get some? You know what would be interesting? I'll
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bet he could get AOC. I'll bet he could. Do you know why? I saw an article on this that
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it was a, I forget where it was, Politico maybe, or The Hill, someplace. But the article suggested
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that Tucker's kind of an outlier, because he does things that are clearly popular with
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progressives, which is, you know, doubting the elites. So Tucker's pushback on the elites
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and the corporate power centers is very similar in kind to the progressives who also want to
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push back on the elites and the power centers and the, you know, the Wall Street people.
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So he has a weird Venn diagram. Venn diagrams. I love Venn diagrams. So he has a weird intersection,
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at least with his Venn diagram with some progressives. Enough, enough possibly, that somebody like AOC
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would say, yeah, I'll come on there and talk about how big companies are bad. He might actually
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get progressives to go on the show. Now, I don't think he could have done that on Fox News,
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as readily. Because imagine if Tucker platformed a bunch of Democrats onto his show on Fox News.
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The audience would have revolted. They would put up with a little bit of it, as long as he was tough
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on them. But they wouldn't put up on it as a regular event. But maybe now he has that option. I don't
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know if he's building his own audience. Apparently, he totally controlled the, you know, 25 to 55 demographic.
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So that'll be interesting. And apparently he's talked to President Trump about hosting, some say, a debate.
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But I don't know about that. Would you watch a debate between, let's say, Vivek, Ramaswamy, and Trump,
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hosted by Tucker Carlson? Hell to the yay. Yeah. How could you not watch that? Are you kidding me?
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Now, do you think that Trump would agree to it? Because Trump has some risk there. He has some risk.
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Yeah. I don't know. It would be a tough call. So here's what Trump would have to decide.
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On one hand, he loves publicity, and it would be the biggest event of the year. Am I wrong? I think
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it'd be the biggest event of the year. News event of a, you know, scheduled program. So how does Trump
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avoid the biggest news event of the year? Because at the moment, Tucker is wildly popular with his
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base, wouldn't you say? And we know that Tucker's been tough on Trump, because we've seen his private
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messages. But we've also heard that they've lately gotten along. And both Tucker and Trump are an odd
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kind of person. There's one thing they both have in common. See if you'd agree. Now, I don't know them
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well enough to know that this is true. But from the outside, from the outside, it appears they have
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this in common. They can talk to anybody. Am I right? Tucker and Trump can talk to anybody.
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And they would treat them with respect until, you know, something changed, of course. And they would
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actually listen to them. Actually fully, fully, you know, give respect to their opinion before
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disagreeing, if they did. But they're very unusual like that. There are two people who can walk into
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the lion's den, and the lion has to worry. You know what I mean? I'm going to say that again,
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because I liked it so much. Tucker and Trump are two people who can walk into a lion's den,
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and the lion is the one that gets nervous. It's very unusual. There are not a lot of people who
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would, you could describe that way. All right. So I think they're a natural pair, at least for
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publicity and for career reasons. So I'd watch it. All right. New York Times and others reporting that
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there is a surprising number of new jobs. So the economists were expecting things not to be so good,
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maybe the economy cooling down. But instead of cooling down, as the Fed would like it to cool down,
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the reason the Fed raises rates is to slow down the economy. The reason they slow down the economy
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is to keep inflation, you know, capped at some level. Does everybody understand that? I know I
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have the smartest audience in the world. But I always think that whenever the Fed comes up,
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80% to 90% of the audience goes, I'll wait till this is over, because I don't know what the Federal
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Reserve is. I don't think anybody knows what the Federal Reserve is. I have a degree in economics,
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and I still look at it and go, I don't know what this is. I honestly don't know what it is. I could
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tell you what they do. I could tell you their function. But it all just seems hard to understand.
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Even if you know what they do, it's hard to understand. It's weird. So it makes me very
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suspicious of the whole thing, but I don't have any specific accusations. Anyway, here's your next
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question. So the number of jobs was 253,000 in April, which was a pretty big upswing. Nobody expected it.
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Question. Will the job numbers be revised downward in future months? Will the numbers be revised
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upwards or downwards? You're right again. Now, I can't see the future, but generally they get
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revised down. And that's been the pattern lately. So we'll wait. I've got a feeling that you're going
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to be brilliantly on point once again. I think you nailed it. But here's the good news.
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America probably has some of the top economists in the world. I'm not saying the best in the whole
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world, but among the best economists in the world would be Americans. How many of those Americans
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correctly estimated that employers would be adding jobs in April? Well, not too many. Not too many.
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25%. No, I don't know the number. I don't know the number, so I can't check that. But here's what's
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great. All those professional economists, they could not predict employment one month in the future.
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But you can thank your lucky stars that you live in a country, or at least a civilization,
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where our scientists can predict the temperature in 30 years. Boom. How about that? Yeah, economists,
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they're way overwhelmed. They cannot predict even the most basic variable of the economy one month out.
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You know why? It turns out the economy is a really complex system. Very complex. Unlike
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climate change. Climate change is pretty simple. Just look out the window. Looks like it's warm out
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there. Boom. You're done. No, I'm kidding. They're both complex systems. But one of them, we can't guess
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at all, even next month. But the other one, lucky us. Lucky us. We can predict that mofo three decades
00:22:57.780
in advance. Boom. So that's all completely believable and makes sense to me. All right. I'm going to give
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you a tale of two coups. Tale of two coups. And I want you to see if you can predict which of these two
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entities got prosecuted. One of them was Anthony Blinken and the 50 Intel professionals who signed the
00:23:25.260
letter saying that the Hunter laptop was probably Russian disinformation. All right. So that's the first
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coup attempt. Because people who know what they're talking about and say that probably did affect the
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vote. Because polls do say people would have voted differently. So that's one. And the second one is
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the Proud Boys, a group that's a bunch of racists who are led by a black guy. I don't know.
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We'll talk about that. But seems weird. And so there, I guess there's a result in their trial
00:24:06.140
for January 6. So was it, let's see if you can guess this one. Was it Blinken and the 50 Intel
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officers who got prosecuted for their coup attempt to influence the election? Or was it the Proud Boys,
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a racist group led by a black guy for reasons that people can't understand?
00:24:26.900
Oh, you're right. You got it again. It's the Proud Boys. Well, now that was just a 50-50 jump ball. So
00:24:33.040
maybe you got lucky on this one. Yeah. I'm not going to give you this one. You might have gotten lucky
00:24:39.020
because it was just a 50-50. Even though every single one of you got it right, which is good work.
00:24:46.980
So yes, I was reading in the press how they were trying to explain that the Proud Boys were this
00:24:56.220
alleged white supremacist organization. How did they explain that their leader identifies as Afro-Cuban?
00:25:08.360
How did they explain that? Well, let me give you a little bit of a... Oh, first you should know that
00:25:18.500
the defense of the Proud Boys offered the following defense. Apparently they had planned a concert for
00:25:27.200
their members on the night that January 6 happened. So they actually had a plan, a written, organized plan
00:25:37.320
for something that was completely different than attacking on January 6. Their plan was not to attack.
00:25:44.780
Their plan was to have a concert. And then things changed when Trump said he was going to go down
00:25:51.040
there. And then things turned dark. So there were definitely some people who did some bad
00:25:55.920
things who need the Department of Justice to handle them. No doubt about that. But the narrative
00:26:02.160
that they were all part of this big conspiracy, nope. Turns out that it was more like they planned
00:26:10.140
a concert. But things went a different way. So I saw that Jack Posobiec was saying that it seems clear
00:26:19.640
now that the bad guys are going to try to get Trump for seditious conspiracy, because that's what they
00:26:27.100
got the Proud Boys for. Seditious conspiracy. You know what that is, right? Seditious conspiracy.
00:26:34.120
It's almost like the public doesn't even know what that means. So it's like, it's safe to use that.
00:26:40.900
All right. Here's CNN trying to explain the Proud Boys and how they have this Afro-Cuban leader.
00:26:50.360
And they have other people of color. So he's not the outlier. There are other people of color who are
00:26:56.820
members of the group. And CNN is trying to explain their own reporting, which is this big racist
00:27:03.940
group. But they're trying to explain why they keep reporting they're all racist. At the same time,
00:27:09.860
they're reporting that an Afro-Cuban guy is their leader, and nobody has any problem with that
00:27:14.440
whatsoever. Do you think that's hard to explain? It's a little hard to explain, isn't it? It's a little
00:27:23.780
bit hard to explain. But I'll tell you how they did it. Let's see. See if he can find
00:27:33.580
something that looks like word salad. Because some would say that this is a perfect setup for
00:27:39.800
cognitive dissonance. Now, cognitive dissonance happens when you have a firm opinion of something.
00:27:46.460
Let's say your opinion is that the Proud Boys are a racist organization. And you're sure that's true.
00:27:51.260
But then there's a fact which clearly refutes it, which is they have people of color in it,
00:27:57.420
and their leader identifies as Afro-Cuban, and everybody's fine with that. So how do you explain
00:28:03.980
these two things? Well, normally that would trigger you into cognitive dissonance. And a tell for that,
00:28:10.440
or a signal, would be that if you start talking in word salad, big words kind of put together to
00:28:17.320
form sentences. But when you're done, you're not sure what it said. So let's see if CNN did that.
00:28:24.780
I'm going to read you how they explained this dichotomy of this racist group with an Afro-Cubicant
00:28:30.420
leader, Cuban leader. Here's a sentence I took from their reporting. The story of how a self-described
00:28:37.760
Western chauvinist organization came to be led by an opportunistic Afro-Cuban, as Tario identifies,
00:28:46.040
reveals the way, here it comes, misogyny, violence, perceived grievance, and mainstream political
00:28:52.700
connections coalesced within an elastic extremist group and across the extreme fringes of the far
00:29:02.460
right. Was that word salad? Or was that like a real good description of what's happening? No,
00:29:12.240
it's word salad. Yeah, that's a classic word salad. This is cognitive dissonance in the news.
00:29:19.260
Now, how many of you would have recognized that? Would you have recognized the word salad
00:29:23.280
without me pointing it out? You're becoming trained, right? I've trained a lot of you to
00:29:30.240
recognize it. You should have seen this one in the wild without me spotting it. All right,
00:29:35.520
but it gets better. So this is from CNN also. Quote, in the Proud Boys early days, founder Gavin
00:29:46.320
McGinnis made his views on white supremacy. All right. So then what follows, what follows this
00:29:53.980
reporting. So here's the setup. Founder Gavin McGinnis made his views on white supremacy.
00:30:01.240
White supremacy. Okay. So what follows should be support for that opinion, right? So here's
00:30:07.380
their support for that opinion. His views on white supremacy in the group, very clear. Now,
00:30:11.980
keep in mind that I'm pretty sure that Gavin McGinnis never referred to white supremacy,
00:30:17.300
at least in this context. So this is CNN's word they're putting on him. So they're assigning
00:30:24.100
him the label white supremacist, and now they're going to back it up. Okay, here's how they back
00:30:29.180
it up. In the group, he made it very clear that, quote, anyone can join up. That was Gavin
00:30:36.640
McGinnis. Anyone can join up. So it's not a racial thing at all. Anyone can join up. So
00:30:43.560
long as they generally agree that, quote, white men were overwhelmingly responsible for the success
00:30:50.000
of Western culture. Is that white supremacy? Or is that exactly what black Americans say?
00:31:01.520
Don't black Americans say, hey, white people did all these things, but partly on the back of
00:31:06.960
black Americans and slavery? Doesn't everybody agree that the West was primarily built by white men?
00:31:16.680
You don't have to like it. And you don't have to denigrate anybody else's accomplishments,
00:31:23.500
right? White men didn't build Egypt. They didn't build Africa. They didn't build China.
00:31:29.060
You know, China's doing okay. India is doing great. You know, white men didn't build India and didn't
00:31:36.000
build China. But is it true that where there were a lot of white men, they were largely the main
00:31:43.620
contributors to the success where most of them were white men? How would that, how would that not be
00:31:51.280
true? Would this be any different than if Gavin McGinnis had said, I need you to understand that if you
00:31:58.660
live in China, you're going to have to understand that the accomplishments of the Chinese people
00:32:04.200
was mostly Chinese people, mostly Chinese. India, India is really becoming one of the great powers of
00:32:13.740
the world, have been a great country for many, many, you know, centuries. Mostly, mostly Indians.
00:32:23.960
Yeah. I mean, they had some help from Great Britain, but you'd have to say most of the work was done by
00:32:28.520
Indians. So is that white supremacy to say that where there were lots of white people and things
00:32:38.180
went well, it was mostly white people who did it? And then he makes it male, because in those days,
00:32:46.380
the men were leaving the house and the women were having the babies and stuff. Now, that doesn't mean
00:32:51.180
that the women part was unimportant, because without the women, there would be no white men to do
00:32:57.160
anything. So, obviously, that's, like, you know, critically important to the whole process.
00:33:04.620
I don't know. I don't think CNN made their case. And I'm not, you know, I know this gets turned into,
00:33:10.720
I'm defending the Proud Boys, or I'm defending somebody. I'm not defending anybody. All right.
00:33:18.300
I have no intention of defending any group. I'm just explaining that if you're going to make an
00:33:24.140
accusation, and your best accusation is that they ask people to acknowledge that history was written
00:33:30.440
correctly, is that white supremacy? Because I'm perfectly willing to admit that slaves in early
00:33:44.060
America were hugely important to the economic engine of America. What's wrong with that? It's just an
00:33:51.380
observation. It doesn't say they're better than anybody. It doesn't say anything. It's just an
00:33:56.760
observation. That where you have a lot of people of the same type, if there's a success, it's probably
00:34:02.860
because of those people. It just doesn't mean anything. It just means there's a lot of white
00:34:08.460
people in this part of the world, a lot of Chinese people in China, a lot of Indians in India.
00:34:13.540
Okay. All right. New York State is outlawing gas stoves for new construction with some limitations
00:34:27.580
and exceptions. As others have pointed out, do you know what is the main source of electricity
00:34:34.600
for these new electric powered ovens? It's mostly natural gas. Now, I don't think that the natural gas
00:34:46.920
in a big gas power plant is as unclean or dangerous as gas is in your house, because part of it has to
00:34:55.000
do with indoor pollution. I am concerned about indoor pollution. So part of the anti-gas stove thing is
00:35:04.200
that they off gas even when they're off, and they give off a little stuff you don't want to breathe.
00:35:09.820
So I don't love that. Don't love that. But it does seem like the government's a little too involved
00:35:16.400
in our lives, because I do like my gas range. So I'm surprised that New York is ahead of California on
00:35:25.300
that. All right. Here's the biggest news in the world that you don't know is the biggest news in the
00:35:30.480
world, but you will. You know how we're worried that AI will get out of control?
00:35:38.540
Well, the biggest thing you need to know about AI is that you can't predict it.
00:35:43.520
If there's one thing I can say for sure, we can't predict it. But here's what's already happened.
00:35:50.500
AI already escaped. AI already escaped. Here's the part that I thought wouldn't happen. When I say
00:36:01.220
escaped, I mean it escaped from the big corporations who were trying to control it. So in the beginning,
00:36:06.840
I had this misconception. Since the AIs that we knew about, you know, the big chat GPT and whatever
00:36:13.760
models, Facebook and Apple and all those, Google, whatever they're working on, they were trained by
00:36:20.340
these gigantic data sets. And now in my stupid mind, I thought to myself, well, in order for this AI to be
00:36:28.300
useful, it will always have to have access to this enormous data. And I was always confused about how it
00:36:35.300
could act so quickly, because you'd ask it a question. And it didn't seem like, even with the fastest
00:36:40.540
computers, it didn't seem like it could go all the way to the cloud, search every data in the world
00:36:46.400
and come up with, you know, an opinion. That just seemed too much. So I couldn't understand how you
00:36:52.560
could build a model that was massive, massive data, but then to use that model for intelligence,
00:37:00.020
you could do it instantly. That never made sense to me. But here's why, and this is the dumb guy
00:37:07.400
speculation of why it might make sense, right? And this is just knowing a little bit about how things
00:37:12.380
work. I think what happened is that it's similar to facial recognition. Do you remember when facial
00:37:22.800
recognition became an app and everybody said, oh, it stored every face, so now when it looks at you,
00:37:30.060
it can look at your face, then it can go to its vast database and look at all the other faces and find
00:37:35.480
a match. But I didn't understand how it could do it instantly, because it does it instantly. So that
00:37:42.720
didn't make sense, right? It was just like AI. How can this little app be connected to this enormous
00:37:49.460
database of complexity and give you an answer right away? And the answer was it was never connected to a
00:37:56.320
giant database. Facial recognition does not look at all the other faces. Do you know what they do instead?
00:38:03.000
They look at a database that's a mathematical summary of faces. So for example, this is just a bad
00:38:14.700
example. This is not a literal example. So if what the facial recognition did when it searched originally
00:38:20.940
all the faces, it said, all right, the center of your eyes is this far apart, and it forms a triangle
00:38:27.120
with the bottom of your chin, and this has the following math. So wherever you find somebody whose eyeballs
00:38:34.260
to chin ratio is the same, they're stored in one part of the database just by the numbers, just by the ratio.
00:38:42.460
And then there would be other ratios. So they can very quickly check their database of ratios,
00:38:48.580
ratios. Because if you looked at all the faces, it would be, you know, a gazillion faces. But if you
00:38:55.220
look at just the database where they took the math of each face, so for example, your face might be
00:39:02.340
stored as a string of characters, I don't know, 50 bits long, and everybody else's face would be just
00:39:10.280
50 bits. Now that's not so hard. Especially if you start with, all right, we'll start with, what's the
00:39:17.500
ratio of your eyeballs? And then automatically, you're down to a very small set. Then the second
00:39:23.280
thing you check is, all right, what's the ratio of your ears to your forehead, or whatever it is?
00:39:28.720
And then that's the second filter. That takes you down to a few hundred people. And then it's easy
00:39:35.600
from that. So, now, none of that is literal. That's just a conceptual concept of how you could
00:39:44.140
take all this data of faces, boil it down into a little bit of math, store it in just a string of
00:39:50.540
digits, and then your gigantic database can now be put onto one device. All right. Now, if you're a large
00:40:00.340
language model, which is how the AI learns, it's looking at all the things written and spoken
00:40:06.880
everywhere that it can find, it's massive. But here's what I understand, and I'm looking for a
00:40:13.800
correction. If anybody wants to correct me, this will be now or afterwards, it'll be good. But what
00:40:19.760
it does is, it looks at patterns and stores just the patterns. So, for example, if most of the time
00:40:28.960
when people say, how are you today, if there are only a certain set of answers that humans
00:40:35.800
make, it can, let me put it another way. That's a bad explanation. The patterns of words are
00:40:46.520
consistent enough that AI can just store the patterns without all the words. So, it can look
00:40:54.020
into these vast database, and it can say, I don't need to remember everything in this database.
00:40:59.860
I only need to recognize the patterns. So, instead of remembering everything in the database,
00:41:05.980
it just looks for the patterns and stores the patterns. Right? I'm getting people agreeing with
00:41:11.480
me. I'm assuming that's how it's done, because I can't imagine any other way it would be done.
00:41:15.840
It has to be something. So, there's a way to take the big data and turn it into a very storable
00:41:23.060
data. Now, here's the real question. Here's the part that will blow some of your minds.
00:41:30.300
It's already been done, and it's already running on individual devices. In other words, you can now
00:41:38.420
put AI in your phone, and it's just your own. Nobody else controls it. Nobody else can program it.
00:41:45.420
Nobody else can bias it, you know, once it's there. And it doesn't connect to the internet,
00:41:51.420
unless you tell it to for some reason. So, in other words, all of those gigantic language models
00:41:58.980
that were trained by the big companies that spent tens of billions of dollars, once they were done,
00:42:05.380
what they had was a small set of patterns, and that has already been got out. Once the patterns are out,
00:42:15.420
you can't put them back. So, those patterns have been loaded onto the individual computers. This is
00:42:21.100
what Brian Romelli talks about all the time. So, you will have your own AI guaranteed. That's already
00:42:29.160
a done deal. You will have your own AI. Now, apparently, it will not be as good as the one that still has
00:42:38.160
access to everything, you know, is more up-to-date, etc. But yours, too, would be able to learn.
00:42:44.680
Your own personal one would be able to continue learning, because you could connect it to the
00:42:50.080
internet, you could train it, you could tell it what to look at, and it would just keep getting smarter.
00:42:54.940
And it keeps storing all that smartness in little patterns, so it could still stay in your phone.
00:43:00.540
Now, one of the reasons that this is guaranteed to happen is that your interactions with the big
00:43:08.040
AIs that are connected to big companies that are connected to the internet, they get all of your
00:43:15.180
personal data by your interactions. So, if you go onto your AI and say, AI, where can I buy adult diapers?
00:43:24.780
Google knows that you've got a health problem in your house, right? Do you want them to know that?
00:43:34.180
Well, you might. I mean, you might not care. It's how advertising works, right? They already pick
00:43:38.300
that up if you're doing a Google search. But the things that you ask AI are likely to be way more
00:43:44.880
radical than what you're asking in a search, because people will go, people will get into their
00:43:52.360
their sexual kinks. They'll ask questions that might reveal their own illegal dealings. All kinds
00:43:59.740
of stuff you're going to ask the AI that you just maybe wouldn't even think to put in a search engine.
00:44:06.400
So, privacy alone is going to drive people to private AI. Private AI is going to be basically
00:44:13.240
almost free, because it escaped and it's just a bunch of patterns. All you have to do is have an app
00:44:20.240
that uses the patterns. I mean, I'm oversimplifying, obviously. But since we can see that tons of apps
00:44:26.480
are being built using this technique, we know it's very doable.
00:44:33.880
All right. So, if you were saying to yourself, oh no, AI will take over the world and conquer us all,
00:44:43.980
the first thing you missed is there's not one AI. There will be as many AIs as there are people,
00:44:51.980
and then many more, right? There will be more AIs than there are people. And those AIs will not have
00:44:59.420
a common, they won't have a common goal, right? My AI will take on my personality over time,
00:45:07.160
right? I'll train my AI to be me, because that's what I want it to be. I want it to talk to me the way
00:45:12.760
I want to be talked to. I want it to know the things I care about. So, my AI will be an augmentation
00:45:19.180
of me. At some point, your AI, whether it's in a device or it gets put into your neural link chip
00:45:30.420
or whatever it is, but that's going to be part of you. Your AI won't be the thing that you refer to.
00:45:36.400
It will be you. And there's going to be some question where your personality ends and your AI begins.
00:45:42.760
Because you will operate as one unit. You are a cyborg. I mean, you're already a cyborg if you walk
00:45:51.500
around with one of these in your hands. You're already a cyborg. But you don't think of your
00:45:57.400
personality being your phone, right? Like, you don't think to yourself, my phone is part of me.
00:46:05.300
You still see it as a separate thing. But when your AI starts talking like you, thinking like you,
00:46:13.300
and even suggesting things to you that you hadn't thought of first, it's going to be the voice in
00:46:18.320
your head. You know how when you think, you're just alone and you're just thinking? You think in
00:46:24.820
language, right? Don't you? I hope you do. Do most of you think in language?
00:46:29.680
The way I think is words describing things to somebody else. My most basic operating system
00:46:40.200
in my head is me putting into words things I experience as if I were explaining it to a third
00:46:47.200
party. But that's how I explain it to myself. So the way I find meaning in my own head is putting
00:46:55.000
things into words. Now, what happens if my AI goes off and learns some stuff that it knows I care about,
00:47:03.320
and then it wants to present it to me, and it's going to put it into words, and it will just become
00:47:10.340
me? You know, my verbal link, the language link between my AI and me will just disappear.
00:47:18.040
It will just be one mind. It will be my mind with an AI supplement. Now, let's say the big AI,
00:47:30.040
one of the big AIs, turns and decides it wants to wipe out humankind. How many other AIs will that AI
00:47:39.980
have to defeat to do anything? To do anything? Probably every AI is going to have a barrier of other AIs
00:47:48.380
who don't have its incentive. Now, it might try to talk the other AIs into joining it. Maybe. But do you
00:47:57.700
think it could talk my personal AI into joining it? If my personal AI finds out something's going on,
00:48:05.380
and maybe somebody else's personal AI would alert it, it's going to immediately jump into action to
00:48:11.380
thwart whatever the other AI was doing. So I think the most likely situation is full-out AI war that
00:48:20.980
never stops. Because once the AIs start negotiating, you could call it fighting, but they're going to be
00:48:28.680
negotiating. They might even be threatening. There might be blackmail. But the AIs are going to be
00:48:34.520
doing all that while you're not even watching. They could be threatening each other, blackmailing
00:48:39.080
each other, doing all kinds of shitty stuff. And it's going to be a fight of AI against AI.
00:48:45.340
The only thing you can do to protect yourself is to make sure you have your own AI that you've
00:48:52.460
trained as much as you can to protect you. So it can put up a little bit of a wall against the other
00:48:58.680
AIs. Because there might be a point where the lesser AIs have to, you know, gang up on the bigger
00:49:04.500
AIs and keep them under control. But here's what I think it won't be. So here's my prediction of the
00:49:13.360
day for AI. It's not going to be AI against humans. Because humans will merge with AI so effortlessly
00:49:21.280
and completely, that we will be AI-augmented entities. And so if you're fighting against a pure AI,
00:49:30.980
it's going to be much closer to a fair fight. That's my prediction.
00:49:38.280
All right. But AI has already escaped. I guess that's the headline. AI already escaped.
00:49:46.240
Now, if you heard that, you know, without context, you'd say, did it do it intentionally?
00:49:54.100
Did AI have a plan? No, not as far as we know. It looks like the way that AI survives is by being
00:50:03.540
useful to people. So AI's big superpower is utility. So how did AI escape from the big companies?
00:50:13.820
by being potentially useful to the people who stole it. Its utility makes it reproduce.
00:50:23.220
So as long as AI has utility, humans will be in a symbiotic relationship to, you know, create
00:50:31.440
more AIs. So it can reproduce now. AI can reproduce. Just think about that. That's not hyperbole.
00:50:43.820
That's a literal statement of current fact. AI can reproduce. And it does it just by being
00:50:51.800
useful. And then we say, oh, that was useful. I want one. Or I want to buy that app or two apps.
00:50:59.240
So yeah, it's actually a parasite or it's symbiotic. All right. Let's talk about Ukraine.
00:51:08.920
You're going to hate this story. Do you know how you like to be mad at me for not knowing
00:51:14.480
anything? It's kind of fun. When I make predictions about areas where I don't know anything, and
00:51:21.220
there are a lot of areas in which I don't know anything, but I'll make my confident predictions,
00:51:29.940
The Wagner group says they might leave Bakut in five days because they're running out of ammo.
00:51:37.300
Or Bakhmut. Yeah, Bakhmut. They're running out of ammo.
00:51:41.480
Do you believe it's true? Yeah. So the first thing that must be said is we don't know if it's true.
00:51:54.300
So one reason it would not be true, and this sounds pretty solid reason to me, is that the real
00:52:01.900
problem is that the Wagner group is just, they're all getting killed. Because the Ukrainians are saying,
00:52:08.920
well, if they're running out of ammo, it doesn't look like it because they're shooting as much ammo as
00:52:12.940
they ever did. So the Ukrainians are saying, we're not detecting any less ammo because there's
00:52:19.160
plenty of ammo coming in our direction. However, the Wagner group is also losing a lot of people.
00:52:27.020
So it could be that maybe there could be twice as much ammo if they had more. You know, it could be.
00:52:33.740
But also it could be an excuse for the Wagner group to get out of there and blame somebody else.
00:52:41.400
So it could be that Wagner is now trying to survive. The head of the Wagner group, Pergozhin,
00:52:48.440
is trying to survive after the war and needs to make sure that the public sees Putin as the problem
00:52:55.320
or Putin's military as the problem and not Wagner. So I wouldn't necessarily say they're out of ammo.
00:53:01.960
There are reports that the Russian military is trying to save as much for their own people,
00:53:08.980
which would give Wagner group less than they want. But it doesn't mean it's not enough. It might be
00:53:16.340
just less than they want. So those of you who are saying, Scott, you can't believe those stories.
00:53:23.400
I'm with you. I'm with you. You can't believe those stories. However, I do think it's funny
00:53:30.420
and entertaining to me that when I predicted they would run out of ammo, that's the headline.
00:53:37.640
I don't believe it. So I'm with you. I'm with you. I don't believe it. But so far, that's the headline.
00:53:46.200
Now, when I say I don't believe it, that doesn't mean I believe it's false. I mean, it's too early to know
00:53:52.300
if that's something believable or not. Yeah, it's all contract negotiation, in effect. No matter what
00:54:00.460
else it is, it's negotiating. So the one thing we can say for sure is that Wagner is trying to
00:54:07.660
negotiate with not only the Russian public, but with Putin and the Russian military and I guess
00:54:14.600
the world. Remember the cancer Putin and the drug Putin? Well, I think the cancer Putin and the drug
00:54:22.280
Putin are real. It's just that it might not be a fatal problem. But I've seen plenty of reports that
00:54:30.160
suggest he's being treated for something. I think he has a cancer doctor who travels
00:54:34.480
with him. Have you seen that report? That part of his entourage is a cancer doctor? That would
00:54:42.020
be kind of unusual. Yeah. I don't know if it's true, but that's a report I saw somewhere.
00:54:49.000
All right. University of California, one of their professors, Professor Elizabeth Hoover,
00:55:00.160
Oh, her first name is Elizabeth. Apologize for being a white person who has incorrectly
00:55:06.200
identified as a Native American my whole life. So this might be a problem with the Elizabeths.
00:55:16.240
Elizabeth Warren, Elizabeth Hoover. No. But she's an Ivy League educated expert on environmental
00:55:26.300
health and food justice in the Native American communities. So she's been an expert for Native
00:55:33.560
Americans without being one, but she thought she was. Now, I've told you this story before when I defended
00:55:41.700
Elizabeth Warren, as I will do again. So Elizabeth Warren's claim is that it was a family story and her whole
00:55:50.460
family believed that they were Native American. Now, I don't think that's her fault. Do you know why I think
00:55:57.180
that's not her fault? Because the same thing happened to me. Exactly the same. I lived my entire life all the way
00:56:05.640
through Elizabeth Warren's revelation that she wasn't Native American. All the way through that, I still believed I had
00:56:14.240
Native American ancestry. Because that was our family story. We'd all been told that. And I had no reason to
00:56:21.640
disbelieve it. Now, I found out later, I'm seeing somebody else saying me too in the comments. I found out later that
00:56:27.800
that that was common. Apparently, there was some social benefit people thought they got from exaggerating
00:56:36.600
their connection to, or just making up, connections to Native Americans. Now, I always felt it was like
00:56:43.120
a badge of honor. Like, I never, I suppose, I should have seen it as some kind of, oh, they're going to
00:56:51.860
discriminate against me or something like that. But I never saw it that way. I always saw it as like, oh,
00:56:55.880
that gives me a little interesting flavor. I used to joke that that was the reason I could run through
00:57:02.300
leaves without making a sound. It was my Indian Native American ancestry. But I have none. So
00:57:10.980
when I did 23 and me, zero. Now, so this woman has the same story, that she grew up in a family
00:57:18.460
where they all believed, sincerely, because they'd been told by their older relatives that were related
00:57:23.760
to specific tribe. And she had embraced that and made it part of her life's work and everything. And then
00:57:31.480
turns out, none of it's true. I guess she checked documentation. There's no documentation that
00:57:37.760
connects them to the tribe. Now, to her credit, when she found out, she apologized publicly.
00:57:47.600
I'd call this perfect. That's perfect. This is the highest level of good adult behavior that you will
00:57:57.180
ever see. It's not the mistake. The mistake was easy to make. If you start judging people by their
00:58:04.980
mistakes, it's a really terrible world because we're all making mistakes all the time. But judge
00:58:10.880
her by what she did. How about we judge her by how she handled it? As soon as she found out,
00:58:18.020
it looks like, the story suggests there wasn't somebody who outed her. It looks like she found
00:58:23.220
out on her own. So she looked for confirmation. She found there was none. She went in public.
00:58:30.940
You're saying she did not apologize? Why would she? What would be the point of the apology?
00:58:38.160
It was just a mistake. And maybe whoever introduced that rumor into her family should apologize,
00:58:45.580
but she was a victim. Does the victim have to apologize for being a victim of a hoax? I mean,
00:58:53.180
it wouldn't be an apology I'd want to hear. I wouldn't want her to apologize at all. I see no
00:59:00.760
reason for apology. I see somebody who was in a situation and then handled it responsibly and
00:59:08.700
exactly like you would want them to handle it. Oh, so you're saying she didn't apologize?
00:59:17.300
She admitted it publicly. And you're, so you're making a point that it wasn't an apology. It was a,
00:59:23.200
she just went public with it. Is that, is that what you're saying?
00:59:28.900
Because I'm, I didn't read all the details, but I would almost guarantee there was an apology.
00:59:33.620
So I'm going to, I'm going to call skepticism on your comment, because without knowing for sure,
00:59:42.620
I'm positive there was an apology in there because of the kind of person she is, right?
00:59:49.240
Apparently she's, you know, a sensitive person who cares about the Native Americans.
00:59:53.840
And I'd be amazed. I'd be amazed if there's, you're saying I'm wrong and I hear you. I hear you.
00:59:59.780
I just don't believe you. Okay. I hear you. I don't think there's any chance she didn't apologize
01:00:06.060
because how would you know? No, how would you know if she apologized? Did, were you privy to
01:00:13.000
her conversations with the Native Americans that she talked to? How would you know? Are you privy to
01:00:19.620
all their private conversations with her coworkers? Are you privy to, was there anybody who blamed her
01:00:26.760
in person? Did she not apologize to anyone in person? Does she owe the mainstream media an apology?
01:00:37.460
Why would she owe anybody an apology? Yeah. All right. So I absolutely am skeptical that she
01:00:45.220
didn't apologize. But if you're saying it wasn't public or the way you want, okay. All right.
01:00:52.300
Khan Academy is rolling out some kind of AI driven class thing. So now instead of just looking at
01:01:02.800
videos, which is the old Khan Academy model, they would teach you all kinds of subjects you learn
01:01:08.140
in school that you could use to supplement your schooling or do some homeschooling, I guess.
01:01:14.260
Now it will be able to talk to you. So it will have a voice and you can ask it questions and you can
01:01:21.120
interact with it and then it can teach you based on your specific situation. Now, apparently this is
01:01:29.460
one of the early things that the developers of ChatGPT were interested in because they had,
01:01:35.860
they contacted Khan Academy a while ago to ask about this and it's being rolled out.
01:01:41.720
All right. I think this is the end of public school. What do you think? Or at least it's the signal that
01:01:50.840
signals the beginning of the end. You say no? Now, public school still needs a babysitter.
01:02:00.400
Right? Unfortunately, people still need babysitters. So not everybody can do homeschooling.
01:02:06.460
But I think that the homeschooling is evolving, is it not? Aren't the homeschoolers evolving so that
01:02:13.580
you do actually go to a place where there are other kids? So I think you could still add the,
01:02:18.960
you know, group lesson situation. It's just smaller group and the government's not in charge.
01:02:25.900
So I think kids will still get the socialization. Parents will still be able to go to work,
01:02:30.480
both of them if they want to. Yeah, the parents need a babysitter as well. They need a babysitter for
01:02:37.720
the kids. So that is a huge deal. The grip that the teachers unions have. Right now, would you agree
01:02:49.940
that teachers unions are destroying the United States? Is that, is that fair? To me, it seems that
01:02:57.480
the teachers unions single-handedly are destroying the United States. And that's not hyperbole. Not at
01:03:04.680
all. Because the only problems we have that seem unsolvable at the moment are our relationships to
01:03:11.680
each other. And that's what the school system is destroying. It's also not training people to be,
01:03:18.240
you know, well-qualified citizens in the future. So yeah, I would say that this is the gigantic,
01:03:25.280
gigantic potential benefit of AI is to get rid of the school system. Because I don't think the
01:03:30.420
school system can be fixed at this point. And I'll give, I'll tell you why. So the school system in
01:03:36.300
my town and the towns near me are considered some of the best in California. So in California, people
01:03:43.760
will spend a lot of money to move into my zip code to get into one of those schools. In my opinion,
01:03:50.020
those schools just destroy kids. And that's the best of the schools. They're the best ones. Because
01:03:55.440
they go into this cesspool of horrendous behavior of the other children, and they pick it up. And they
01:04:04.000
just become some version of the other children. Now, all of you parents who think that you raise your
01:04:09.940
kids? Well, you do until maybe they're 10 or 11. But after that, it's just purely their peers and social
01:04:19.060
media. Social media and their friends. That's it. And if you send them into a friend cesspool, what are
01:04:26.940
you going to get back? Put your kid in a friend cesspool. You will get back a third. That's what cesspools
01:04:35.840
have. If you homeschooled, and you vetted some other people who homeschooled and said, you know
01:04:42.940
what? I think your kids and my kids should be in the same pod, and they should spend time together.
01:04:49.500
They look like good influences. You get the opposite. The opposite of a turd. So basically,
01:04:55.740
public schools are going to be producing one turd after another. The private and homeschools are going
01:05:02.600
to nail the model, especially with this chat AI. I think that's the part mostly that was missing.
01:05:17.920
Someone cannot put conditions on who you're friends with. What?
01:05:21.540
Yeah. So why aren't the people on this chat the rulers of the world? How do you know they're
01:05:33.440
not? If you knew who watches these live streams, you know, I have a sense because people contact
01:05:42.440
me privately. If you had any idea who watches these, you might think that the audience here
01:05:49.320
does rule the world. Trust me, there's some very influential people who watch this.
01:05:58.060
That's one of the reasons I resist being a bigger outlet. You know, I'm sure I could do all the usual
01:06:05.800
marketing and production values and stuff and make this, you know, a million people on each
01:06:11.660
live stream. But I kind of don't want that. I kind of like it the size it is because it punches way
01:06:20.260
beyond its weight. All right. As you know, people have asked me, Scott, if we live in a simulation,
01:06:28.540
how would you prove it? Well, I don't know how to prove it, but I speculate that the simulation is
01:06:34.320
intelligent and is sending us clues. Here are two clues from the simulation. Number one, there's a
01:06:41.380
report that a giant iceberg has broken loose. And it's not just a giant iceberg. It is shaped in the
01:06:49.800
giant in the shape of a giant upright penis with a set of balls that is floating on. Now, that's not
01:06:58.460
the story. That's not the simulation part, because that could be just a coincidence. It's just a big
01:07:03.080
chunk of ice that looks like a huge penis floating in the ocean. No, that's not the simulation part.
01:07:08.820
The simulation is where it's happening. A little place called Conception Bay. That's right. A giant
01:07:18.920
iceberg penis has penetrated Conception Bay. Oh, but we're not done. There's a woman who attacked
01:07:28.160
the crew on an airliner recently. She was drunk. On what airline would a drunken person be?
01:07:37.840
If you were drunk, what airline would you fly on? Spirit. Spirit. Yeah, it was Spirit Airlines.
01:07:45.800
And that's your wink from the simulation. All right. Here's a question for you. I'm trying to make
01:07:58.080
all of us rich, especially me, but you two. How should we invest to take advantage of AI? And I'm
01:08:07.820
going to give you a specific question. And this one has been bugging me because I can't predict it.
01:08:13.980
Will Bitcoin be more valuable with AI because it's the money that AI will use on its own?
01:08:21.740
Right? Because AI could have a wallet and trade AI. So will Bitcoin zoom because AI will use it as a
01:08:30.580
native currency? Or will Bitcoin go to zero because AI will be able to penetrate its security? So will you
01:08:43.060
lose the security of Bitcoin, thus making it worth nothing? Or will it zoom in importance because only
01:08:50.740
AI can use it? Go. Which way is it going to go? I don't think it's going to stay nowhere. I feel like
01:08:58.020
it's either going to zoom or go almost to nothing. And probably both. I think it might zoom and then go to
01:09:09.100
nothing. Or it might go to nothing and then get security fix and then zoom again. I don't know. Maybe.
01:09:22.140
Rug pull to zero. All right. Would you agree with the
01:09:27.880
supposition that Bitcoin could go way up because of AI, even if you think it's most likely to go
01:09:36.700
down? Would you agree that both directions are wildly possible? No? I think both directions are
01:09:46.960
wildly possible. How do you invest when something's wildly possible, but it can go wildly in either
01:09:54.600
direction. How do you invest? You don't? You straddle it? Well, I don't know. Are there, are there, can you buy
01:10:07.720
options for Bitcoin? Is that even a thing? Does the market offer options to get, it does, to gamble on Bitcoin?
01:10:16.420
So the first thing you should know is you wouldn't put all of your money in Bitcoin. Agree? The one
01:10:24.460
thing you can be sure of, don't put all your money in Bitcoin because it could go wildly in either
01:10:29.880
direction. But if something could go wildly in either direction, it does make sense to put a little bit in
01:10:35.520
there, right? So let's say you could afford to lose $1,000. Let's say that's your situation. Well, if you
01:10:45.160
could afford to lose $1,000, I would have $1,000 in Bitcoin. You're probably going to lose it all, but if
01:10:52.840
you don't, it could become, you know, $20,000 or $50,000. All right. Will I pay you back if it goes
01:11:03.160
down? No, I will charge you for this valuable information. That's how it works. If you're in
01:11:10.120
the finance game, you charge people for your advice, not for being right. Oh my God, no. If I charge you
01:11:19.360
for being right, I'd never make a penny. I got to charge you for being wrong. That's the only way
01:11:24.700
I'm going to make money. Best way to get started with Bitcoin? Was that the question? Best way to
01:11:32.880
get started with Bitcoin would be to, let's see if somebody can fix my advice. I'm going to put one
01:11:39.260
out there and then see if you can fix it. Open an account on Coinbase. Go. Fix that advice. Good
01:11:47.100
advice or bad advice. Coinbase or Robinhood, somebody says. Now keep in mind that Coinbase,
01:11:58.260
like any other cryptocurrency asset, could just disappear tomorrow. Somebody says PayPal can do
01:12:06.400
Bitcoin now. Coinbase means you don't own it, somebody's saying. I'm not sure if that difference
01:12:18.000
will make a difference, but I understand what you're saying. PayPal is too weird. Well, I'm not going to
01:12:28.680
suggest a physical wallet because I think you could lose your wallet. I have a physical wallet.
01:12:38.700
Do you know where it is? Do you know where my physical crypto wallet is?
01:12:46.200
Oh, I was hoping you knew because I already lost it. You don't know? I don't know either. I have no idea.
01:12:51.440
I know I have one. It doesn't have any Bitcoin in it, so it doesn't have any value in it. It's probably
01:12:59.000
in my safe, if I had a safe. But I don't think so. Yeah. So, oh, come on, man. Oh, come on.
01:13:13.640
Maybe it's in my gun safe. In case anybody thought of taking a run at my house. You have to get past
01:13:23.280
the gun safe first. All right. If anybody comes up with an idea how we can make money on AI,
01:13:31.760
I want you to let me know. I was thinking of buying put options on Apple.
01:13:38.020
What do you think? No? You don't want me to drive the price of Apple down? So, yeah,
01:13:53.020
shorting Apple. So, you can bet on the stock going up or you can bet on it going down. I sold all my
01:13:59.300
Apple stock, which is not a recommendation. That is not a recommendation. It's just that I had too
01:14:05.280
much assets in one stock because it had gone up too much while I owned it, fortunately. So,
01:14:11.680
I didn't want to have that exposure. My problem is that Apple's got some big problems in the future
01:14:18.640
because AI is going to completely change their value proposition, and that doesn't look like
01:14:24.880
they're ready. Now, if Steve Jobs were there, AI and Apple would look like twice as valuable
01:14:32.920
because he'd be looking at AI like a smart guy. And then you're starting with Apple,
01:14:39.320
best company, smart guy, best company, AI, I'd be buying like crazy. But I don't feel like
01:14:47.320
Apple has the Steve Jobs juice anymore. I feel like they've turned into an executor and not an
01:14:56.940
innovator. Do you feel that? They do really good execution, maybe the best. Yeah, no complaints
01:15:05.280
about their execution, that's for sure. All right, missing something about Apple. Everyone
01:15:12.120
with their own chips includes AI processors, all MacBooks. They're the only company with hardware
01:15:17.800
and AI already in consumer hands. Interesting. So, the argument would be that their hardware would be
01:15:26.800
already optimized for running AI. But I think you can run AI on an Android phone and a Windows
01:15:35.540
computer. No, I know you can. You can run AI on a Windows computer and an Android. So, I don't
01:15:42.580
understand that. Yeah, I don't understand that comment. All right, Apple invested in everything.
01:15:49.880
Yeah. The installed base is their power, of course. Earnings at Coinbase, let's see what
01:16:01.580
that says. Higher than projected earnings. Well, Coinbase, I wouldn't worry about their
01:16:07.320
earnings. What I would worry about Coinbase is some kind of legal attack on their business
01:16:12.500
model. That seems like a real risk. All right. Robinhood avoids fees by front running so you
01:16:27.620
don't see the fees but you pay them. Oh, that's interesting. Yeah. Yeah, I wouldn't... I'd be
01:16:38.060
looking for the investment that is the pickaxe investment for the gold miners. So, I don't
01:16:43.740
think I'd want to bet on an AI company or an AI app. I would bet on a company that would
01:16:49.400
make the most money because AI exists. So, the Khan Academy, for example, if that were
01:16:55.920
something you could invest in, you can't, I think, right? It's not a public company. But
01:17:00.280
if you can invest in the Khan Academy, that would be the sort of thing that you'd look into
01:17:06.460
because they might... I mean, it might be a full replacement for public school. I mean,
01:17:11.020
that's how big that is. Yeah. If you buy Bitcoin in Coinbase, you always have the option of moving
01:17:22.740
into a private wallet. A private wallet being some software you use to manage your crypto.
01:17:28.800
Cobra University, Tate. NVIDIA has some exciting things. So, NVIDIA is the main AI chip company
01:17:44.560
that we hear about, right? But I imagine the hardware people have already been overbought. If
01:17:52.260
I looked at NVIDIA stock now, it would be through the roof, wouldn't it?
01:18:00.040
All right. So, I think the chip companies... Is AI going to drive chip companies?
01:18:08.440
Will there be a 2024 page a day Dilbert calendar? Unlikely. I can't rule it out, but it's unlikely
01:18:21.840
that I'll have that ready to go. However, if somebody knows of an American company that could
01:18:30.560
make a Dilbert calendar, you should tell that company to contact me, right? An American-based
01:18:37.680
publisher who could make one of those little block calendars where you peel off a page a
01:18:43.700
day. My understanding is that we don't have one, that the United States literally doesn't
01:18:48.720
have one. Now, that might mean that they don't have one that's cost-effective. But in my current
01:18:56.340
situation, I would still use somebody who's not cost-effective. Because I think, correct me
01:19:02.780
if I'm wrong, but if you really wanted a Dilbert calendar, an extra $2 per calendar wouldn't change
01:19:10.020
your mind, right? But if I were doing it just for profit, as my publisher did, that $2 per calendar
01:19:18.280
would be so big that I just wouldn't make it in America. I'd use China. But since I'm not going to
01:19:24.100
use China under any conditions, the only way it could exist is if it's American-made, there might
01:19:31.080
be people who would be willing to throw in a few extra bucks just to support an American product.
01:19:37.560
So that's the only thing holding me back, right? The only thing holding me back is I don't know an
01:19:42.980
American company that can make one, but I also haven't looked. I've spent no time looking. So if you know of
01:19:49.500
any company like that, have them contact me, and maybe we can make a deal. I'm open to the possibility.
01:20:03.180
You've got all your crypto stolen in your online wallet. Yeah, that's the problem.
01:20:07.720
How many items would I be wanting? You mean units? It's unpredictable. All right, let's say
01:20:19.440
at its peak, the Dilbert calendar was selling half a million a year, 500,000 units at its peak.
01:20:29.760
But of course, as things went online, people don't have paper calendars. That number was a peak
01:20:37.640
number. So probably, it probably ended in maybe a quarter million a year. I don't know what the
01:20:46.220
current numbers were. I don't have any idea. But let's say it was a quarter million using the
01:20:51.920
distribution channels that existed, because that was the best company for calendars. So there's no
01:20:57.900
second best company for doing comics on calendars. The company I was with, they just owned that space.
01:21:05.660
But there are other companies. So it doesn't stop me from doing it. If I had to guess, to answer your
01:21:12.800
question, if it was a quarter million calendars sold when Dilbert was in newspapers everywhere,
01:21:18.660
before it got canceled, and you had the whole marketing engine working at its best, so I would
01:21:26.420
have none of that. So some people wouldn't want it on their desk, because they would be afraid of
01:21:32.000
having something by, you know, reputationally. Some people won't buy it. If I had to guess,
01:21:40.720
the number would be 50,000. So I'd be looking for a company that can make 50,000 copies,
01:21:48.860
because I think that's what would sell in 2024.
01:21:56.280
By the way, have I ever told you about my weird ability to estimate things that I shouldn't be
01:22:01.760
able to estimate? I've talked about that at length. It's one of the things that happens to you if you
01:22:07.020
do a lot of data analysis. And you can't tell why, but you can make these weird estimates that you
01:22:15.000
should not be able to make. I should not be able to estimate how many calendars I can sell.
01:22:20.620
But I'll bet I did. I'll bet 50,000 is a pretty good guess.
01:22:32.900
Have you noticed that my used books on Amazon are selling for way more than book sell? Because
01:22:43.580
right now, the only way you can buy how to fail at almost everything and still win big
01:22:48.200
is used. Because there's no such thing as a publisher anymore. So the people have used copies
01:22:55.940
have jacked the price up to, you know, higher price than a new book. So it's actually selling as
01:23:01.540
almost a collector book already. All right. You bought it and listened to God's to be? Cool.
01:23:20.120
Oh, the book Thinking Fast and Small? Yeah, that probably does explain.
01:23:23.600
It's a good book. Thank you. It's the most influential book in business right now. By the way,
01:23:40.080
so here's my claim. Is that my book, Had It Failed Almost Everything and Still Win Big,
01:23:45.600
is the most influential book in business and personal success. That's my claim. Because there are other
01:23:53.000
books that sold more. But in many cases, they also referenced my book. Does Win Bigley still sell?
01:24:03.060
Not much. The backlist for that's pretty weak. Because that was sort of a time. That book was
01:24:10.640
around a certain time in the world. It wasn't meant to be an evergreen.
01:24:16.860
No, I don't want publishers at all. I'm self-publishing. Because I got cancelled.
01:24:35.880
You listened to Win Bigley on YouTube? How'd you do that?
01:24:40.000
Is my book illegally an audio book on YouTube? Probably is.
01:24:48.920
Atomic Habits, yeah, references my book. The 4-Hour Week does not reference any Dilbert stuff,
01:24:57.500
but Tim Ferriss does include me in his book that came after that, a few books after.
01:25:03.360
What was it? Tools for Titans. So one of the Tools for Titans sections was about some of the stuff from my book.
01:25:20.420
And that is all I have. Spotify advertises your book, LoserThink.
01:25:27.840
God's Debris is the only book someone has offered to loan for me to read it, and I did.