Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2125 Scott Adams： Trump Goes Savage, Ukraine Is Not A War, Depressed Men, Fake Boycott News

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of human civilization and possibly

00:00:07.280 robots, too. We'll find out later. If you'd like your experience, which will be really

00:00:13.020 unparalleled today. Does it seem a little dark? I think I need to add some light. You

00:00:18.420 can upgrade your performance, and all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass of tank or

00:00:23.720 chalice or stein, a canteen jug or flask, a vessel of any kind, filled with your favorite

00:00:29.740 liquid I like, coffee. Join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine to the

00:00:34.680 day, the thing that makes everything better. It's called the simultaneous sip, and it happens

00:00:39.100 now. Go! Ah. Ah. Yeah. You know what I need is just a little bit more light on this side.

00:00:53.240 Pardon my close-up. Mwah. There we go. Perfect. Question. How many of you have ever tried

00:01:04.600 magnesium supplements? And if you did, did you find it? A lot of you. Wow. Quite a few of

00:01:14.340 you. So I tried magnesium supplements two nights ago. And let me tell you, you know, I hoped

00:01:22.380 it would, you know, loosen my muscles and help me sleep, all the things that it's supposed

00:01:27.000 to do. And I'll be damned. The first night I took it, loosened my muscles, slept like a 0.81

00:01:34.380 baby, had the best night's sleep I can remember. And I said to myself, that magnesium stuff is

00:01:39.620 amazing. So what do you think I did? Well, of course I did it the second night, because the

00:01:47.660 first night was so successful. The second night, up all night, totally buzzed, and all my muscles

00:01:55.960 are sore. Absolute opposite. Now, which one of those is real? Should I take it again? If

00:02:09.280 I got the effect once, that was probably in my imagination, and then the second time, aggressively

00:02:16.180 the opposite. Aggressively the opposite. How do you know if your supplements work? Does

00:02:23.940 anybody know if their supplements work? How could you possibly tell? Because you can't tell

00:02:31.140 experientially, and there's no science to back it. I don't even know if the magnesium that

00:02:38.740 I bought, because I got some special powdered kind that you put in water, it's supposed to

00:02:44.080 be better. I don't even know if it works. Should I keep taking it? You know, maybe creatine,

00:02:53.260 yeah. Well, at least creatine, you could see if it's working, couldn't you? If you took creatine

00:03:00.360 and did your same workout you always do, well, I guess you'd probably do harder, because that's

00:03:05.020 what it lets you do. You'd probably see a muscle difference in three weeks. Am I right? Three

00:03:12.000 weeks, and you'd know if it worked. But how in the world will I ever know if magnesium is

00:03:15.920 working? I don't know what to do about it, because I feel like I need it. And on the other

00:03:20.020 hand, I don't want to be that sucker who took a unnecessary mineral for decades. Anyway, let 0.90

00:03:30.320 me ask you a question. Do you remember, and this is just me giving a prediction grade to

00:03:39.360 myself on this. Do you remember when there was the question of getting a vaccination passport?

00:03:44.920 Do you remember when that was like a big conversation? Oh, no, they want us to have a digital passport.

00:03:53.060 And I argued that you didn't have to worry about it becoming permanent. Did it become

00:04:00.380 permanent? Do you have a digital passport? Okay, so I'm just checking our predictions, because

00:04:09.940 remember, those of you who fought me like weasels said, no, the vaccine passport is just

00:04:17.280 their backdoor way of getting you to a digital passport. And I said, probably not. They're

00:04:23.380 probably just trying to figure out if you're vaccinated. And if it's, you know, if they ever

00:04:27.300 did a digital ID, that would be a separate process. So I think I was right. I think I would

00:04:35.160 say my prediction was right, that that was not a slippery slope per se, but there might

00:04:41.740 be a digital ID. I think the odds of a digital ID are close to 100%. Would you agree? The

00:04:49.200 odds of someday the government requiring a digital ID, probably 100%. Yeah. And I would say the

00:04:59.180 loss of privacy, complete loss of privacy, or something like it. That's also 100%. There's

00:05:06.920 some things that I don't get into the philosophical argument about, because there's not two ways

00:05:11.720 it could go. There's only one way digital IDs are going to go. Someday, maybe not your generation.

00:05:20.360 Maybe you'll outlive it. But there will be digital IDs. There's no doubt about it. Just because

00:05:27.340 we can, and it's just too sticky an idea, there'll be too many economic benefits. You know, the

00:05:34.940 free market will sort of force you into it one way or another. So I'm not saying I'm in

00:05:40.200 favor of it. I'm just saying there's nothing that would stop it. Same with digital money.

00:05:45.360 Do you really think you're going to be paying for stuff? Or let's say other people. Do you

00:05:49.400 think your grandkids are going to be paying for stuff with pieces of paper they carry around

00:05:54.340 in their wallet? Does anybody think that's the future? There's not even a slight chance

00:06:00.820 of that. No. No, digital money is not something that can be stopped. It just can't be. There's

00:06:08.640 just no way that the future looks like today with pieces of paper for money. All right.

00:06:14.300 And again, I'm not saying it's good or bad. It's just, it just is. It's just going to

00:06:20.080 happen. Allegedly, I saw just one report. Maybe you can fact check me on this. Is NASA giving

00:06:31.040 a UFO update at, in the next 20 minutes? In 20 minutes or so, NASA's going to give an update,

00:06:40.440 right? If anybody's watching that at the same time, or you've got another device, if they

00:06:46.260 break any news, can you let me know in the comments? Here's what I anticipate. There are

00:06:55.500 suspicious things that we don't know about. Here's another video of a suspicious thing we

00:07:01.980 don't understand. Here's some reports of some pilots who saw some suspicious things we don't

00:07:09.720 understand. It's always going to be the same. Don't you wish one day they'd just say,

00:07:18.100 well, I know we weren't planning to do this, but I'll open up my suitcase and here's Mazorba,

00:07:24.520 the alien that we just captured. Here he is. Here he is. Everybody take a look. Captured

00:07:29.960 alien. Right here. All right. All right. Put him back in the bag. Sorry. We got taken back

00:07:36.220 to Area 52 or whatever it is. Don't you just want to see one day they actually come through

00:07:44.800 with some real alien stuff? Give us some alien stuff. But you know why we won't see it today?

00:07:53.380 There's a very good reason you will not see a UFO, you know, news breaking big situation. Why?

00:08:00.000 Why will it not happen today? Because there's no story they're trying to divert you from.

00:08:08.440 As soon as there's a big story that's bad for Democrats, oh, there's going to be a UFO story.

00:08:14.280 Let me tell you, there's going to be the UFO story of all UFO stories. They're going to produce

00:08:20.520 actually a family of UFOs with like children and the UFOs will have their own pet. You know,

00:08:26.840 there's going to be like the full spaceship. You're going to get a tour of it. Yeah, that'll be the

00:08:31.720 day that we find proof that Joe Biden was taking bribes. Full, full UFO. We're just waiting.

00:08:40.660 All right. Not really, but it feels like that. Wall Street Journal is reporting on the ongoing

00:08:46.840 decoupling of business from China. A couple of facts I thought weren't interesting. Did you know

00:08:52.660 that 31% of global manufacturing happens in China? Nearly a third of all manufacturing

00:09:00.940 relevant to the entire world happens in China. Now, I knew it was a lot, but when you hear the actual

00:09:07.940 number, it's kind of scary. You thought it was 32%. Well, you fool. You fool. A lot of people thought

00:09:15.300 it was 32%. Fools. It's 31%. My God, how could you be so off? But the news is talking about the difficulty 1.00

00:09:26.100 of companies finding alternatives. So the situation is there's no company that really loves being in

00:09:32.960 China because of the risk. You know, the risk of data privacy, the risk of going to jail, I suppose,

00:09:38.700 the risk of war, the risk of boycotts, all that stuff. So there's no company who wants to be in China.

00:09:47.500 They just don't have options. So even Musk is saying that decoupling from China doesn't make sense.

00:09:53.640 But I would like to add this nuance to it. Decoupling is not yes or no. Who thought that? It's not, you know,

00:10:03.840 binary. We decouple or we don't decouple. It's very obvious that some things you can decouple and some things

00:10:10.720 you can't. Tesla is probably a perfect example of something that can't be decoupled. Because there really

00:10:17.280 isn't any place else to get the stuff done that they need to get done. So I don't mind that so much. I don't mind

00:10:24.120 that so much. People, I think business needs to do what business needs to do. And they need to look for

00:10:30.960 alternatives, which do not exist. So apparently Vietnam is already full. You know, everybody 1.00

00:10:38.080 who thought they were going to move their manufacturing to Vietnam, good luck. All the 1.00

00:10:42.660 buildings are rented. You know, basically the industrial capacity just filled up immediately

00:10:48.060 because people were looking for alternatives. Now that's going to be the same thing for, you know,

00:10:54.320 India, et cetera. They're all probably just smashed. But I'll say it for the millionth time. 1.00

00:10:59.720 We should be, we should have a long-term plan to convert the cartels into something like a

00:11:07.800 manufacturing base. Because the alternative is they're going to go away. And I think somebody

00:11:14.940 like a Trump, somebody like a, you know, Ramaswamy, somebody who's going to be tough on the drug

00:11:22.240 business, I think they could just say, here's your two choices. Work with us productively to turn you

00:11:30.260 into a, you know, legal business of some form where you can be useful. And basically we'll let you

00:11:37.880 repatriate into something like a useful citizen in Mexico. And we'll all win. There is a way everybody

00:11:46.160 wins. It just would take somebody like a, you know, a real maverick personality to get all those

00:11:52.900 people to actually move in the same direction. I do think it's possible though.

00:11:57.000 So, what else? So I guess Trump went after Kayleigh McEnany today, which disturbed a lot of people

00:12:09.580 because Kayleigh McEnany is super popular. Is there anybody who doesn't like Kayleigh McEnany? Who's,

00:12:17.460 let's say, people who like anybody on the right? She's probably, she's probably the most popular

00:12:23.180 person in politics on the right. Name one person who's more popular than her. Like, it's weird.

00:12:33.500 So anyway, once again, Trump does something that you wouldn't do. But may I remind you that you

00:12:40.000 didn't become president. So let me just point this out. It needs to be said. Trump does a lot of things

00:12:47.640 you wouldn't do. It made him president of the United States. Now he's doing more things than you

00:12:55.860 definitely wouldn't do. It looks like a terrible idea. The net result will probably be president of

00:13:02.460 the United States again. So you have to be really humble when you criticize Trump for doing something

00:13:10.440 you wouldn't do. Do you get that? It's hard for me to be humble. I mean, it's really hard to work.

00:13:17.640 I have to put all of my energy into it. Be humble. Be humble. Can't do it. But I can do it in this

00:13:26.660 case a little bit. My first reaction is the same as Dave Rubin. I saw him tweeting on it. My first

00:13:34.420 reaction is the same as yours, probably. Well, that's a terrible idea. That's like the worst idea I've

00:13:40.180 ever seen. Publicly going after Kayleigh McEnany, who was a, you know, a loyal supporter of his

00:13:46.600 administration just because she might be a little bit too pro DeSantis or even just balanced. You 0.99

00:13:53.120 know, maybe her new job requires her to be balanced and that's not a good look. Well, here's the

00:14:00.980 argument for why it might be a good idea that looks like a bad idea to every one of us. You're ready for

00:14:06.980 this? And I want to remind you, it's not going to be my job to defend Trump for everything he does.

00:14:14.600 But I do think explaining him is useful. Would you agree? If you don't take it as defending,

00:14:21.060 I'm going to just talk about everybody's pros and cons. Because in terms of support, I'm just going

00:14:25.820 to support whoever's the toughest on fentanyl. I'm a single issue voter. But let me talk about

00:14:30.960 everybody. All right. So here's the argument for Trump going hard at McElhinney when nobody in the

00:14:40.740 world thinks that's a good idea. It goes like this. Trump creates a pattern in which if you do what

00:14:49.660 he wants, he will praise you and help you and, you know, you're definitely on his good side. But

00:14:55.980 you're not just on his good side. You're really on his good side. He might, you know, promote your book.

00:15:01.800 You know, if you have a book, he's going to tweet it. But if you're against him, you're really against

00:15:09.060 him. So he doesn't do the nuance thing. It's like, oh, you're a good person, but we disagree on the

00:15:14.740 policies. You're either a superstar or you're dead. Right? So the Trump world, there are superstars, 0.97

00:15:23.600 people who support him, and then you're just dead to me. Nothing in between. That is super,

00:15:31.020 super good persuasion. I've even described the most persuasive person I ever worked with

00:15:37.040 who did exactly the same thing. She became the model for the Alice character in the Dilbert comic. 0.99

00:15:44.700 And what she did at work, because I worked with her, she was a real person, still is a real person.

00:15:48.600 If somebody helped her out, let's say she asked somebody in a different department to

00:15:53.880 do something, and they actually did it, she would buy them flowers, like come to work with

00:16:00.680 flowers, just for doing their job, just for doing something she wanted. She would then take

00:16:06.460 the opportunity to talk to that person's boss, that was usually not her own boss, but a different

00:16:12.360 boss, to tell them what a superstar he had, or she. Oh my God, your employee, this one

00:16:18.380 employee, that's your best employee. Man, have you thought about a promotion or a raise?

00:16:23.880 Man, that one employee is just killing it. Now that's what you would get if you did what 1.00

00:16:30.180 she asked you to do for her benefit, for her job. What would happen if you didn't?

00:16:37.500 If you didn't, she would actually try to get you fired. There was nothing in between. 0.92

00:16:41.980 You were either helping her, which made you a superstar, or she would actually go to your

00:16:48.320 boss and say, you know, you should consider replacing this person, because every time I

00:16:52.320 ask for something, they can't get it done. Now remember, this wasn't a manager. This was

00:16:57.400 just a rank and file engineer. And this one engineer had insane power over the entire structure,

00:17:06.480 because everybody knew there was only one person in the game who could either make their career

00:17:12.520 or end it. And it was a co-worker. It wasn't a boss. It was a co-worker. And she carved out 1.00

00:17:18.800 that special, like, you know, control in a way that was very impressive to me. And she became

00:17:25.840 the model for the Alice character. You know, a strong-willed engineer who is a woman who just 0.99

00:17:31.580 isn't going to take any shit from anybody ever. That was her. So Trump uses that same 0.99

00:17:38.920 model. There's nothing in between. So if you're thinking of being in between, you better get

00:17:43.960 off the fence, because the fence is a dangerous place to be in the world of Trump. You just

00:17:49.520 better be on his side. Now here's a question for you. You know, I've gone from more, let's

00:17:57.380 say, complete Trump support to being completely willing to think he would be the best choice

00:18:04.260 if he gets the nomination. But my first choice would be somebody younger. It's time for somebody

00:18:10.600 younger. Do you think I'm going to be targeted? Do you think Trump will come after me? Probably

00:18:18.160 not. Probably not. Because here's what I probably won't do. What I probably won't do is come up

00:18:25.040 with some bogus attack on Trump that doesn't make sense. If I did that, I'd probably get

00:18:33.520 attacked. But I'm just going to talk about what he does well, and what other people do

00:18:38.440 well, and what the other side does well. We'll just see who does well. And if somebody does

00:18:44.000 poorly, we'll call that down as well. All right. Saw a tweet by Mehdi Yakubi about the high rate

00:18:54.220 of depression in men. And this data is mind-blowing, but completely believable. So I'm going to

00:19:06.700 tell you things that will make your head explode, but in my opinion, it looks about right, unfortunately.

00:19:12.460 40% of all men showed depressive symptoms. 40% of all men. 44% of all men had thoughts of suicide

00:19:25.340 in the prior two weeks, with younger men showing the highest rates. 44% of all men thought about

00:19:38.460 killing themselves in the last two weeks. 44% of all men thought about killing themselves

00:19:46.860 in the last two weeks. That's almost impossible to hold it in your head, isn't it? There are

00:19:59.680 some statistics that are so upsetting that it's just hard to hold it in your head. It just hurts.

00:20:09.440 How about 40% of all men say they trust one or more, quote, men's rights, anti-feminist,

00:20:18.680 or pro-violence voices from the, quote, manosphere. So that would be like a, you know, Andrew Tate

00:20:27.160 sort of person. So 40% of men are drawn to something like an Andrew Tate. And nearly half of younger

00:20:36.940 men say they trust such voices. Do you know why they trust those voices? Why do they trust

00:20:44.160 people like Andrew Tate? Because he's not lying to them. Now, just to be clear, I'm not a fan

00:20:53.500 of Andrew Tate. I hate him personally, but for personal reasons. It is, however, true that

00:21:00.660 what makes him popular is that he says things that are true that you're not supposed to say

00:21:05.380 out loud. And men recognize it as true. So half of all young men are finding some honesty,

00:21:14.520 honesty. And apparently they're drawn to it. They're drawn to honesty. Men aged 18 to 23 have

00:21:22.800 the least optimism for their futures and the lowest levels of social support. I wonder if

00:21:29.200 that was always the case. I feel like 18 to 23 year olds are always lost. I don't know if

00:21:35.740 that's different. 65% of men aged 18 to 23 say that, quote, no one really knows me well.

00:21:48.140 Two thirds of all men don't have a friend. Just hold that in your head for a minute. Two thirds of all

00:22:00.080 men, I'm sorry, between 18 and 23, say that no one really knows me well. They don't have any

00:22:07.660 friends. Is that because of the digital world? Like what causes that? Or has it always been

00:22:15.260 true? We just didn't know it. So I'm going to leave you with this one thought. Imagine if men 0.94

00:22:22.160 actually were not trained to lie about their opinions and feelings. Do you know how big of a

00:22:29.440 problem that is? That men have been trained to lie about their opinions and their feelings? Just lie

00:22:36.840 about everything. Because nobody wants to hear a man complain about themselves. Nobody wants to hear a

00:22:44.240 man complain about themselves. We are very tolerant of women and children complaining because we think, 1.00

00:22:51.960 oh, if I know what's wrong, maybe I can fix it. So men are very, very accepting of other people's

00:22:59.040 problems because sometimes we feel that's our role in life, is to go solve those problems. So of course

00:23:05.480 we need to know about them. Then we go solve them. But who solves men's problems? Nobody. Nobody gives a 0.98

00:23:13.960 shit. So if men complained, what good would it do? Nobody's going to come solve their problem. 0.99

00:23:19.140 It just makes them look weak and adds to their problems. So when men complain, it makes their 0.65

00:23:25.940 problems worse. Because nobody's going to help, but they'll think you're a wimp. If women complain, 1.00

00:23:33.060 men say, well, that's a perfectly reasonable thing to do, or a kindred complains, you go solve that

00:23:39.420 problem. Help them out. So I don't know where the breaking point is, but men, the category of men

00:23:48.020 is completely broken. Would you agree? Yeah, the whole category of men is just broken. Now, maybe

00:23:58.200 that's true of everybody. Maybe it's true of women. I just don't have as much of a window into that 1.00

00:24:03.280 world. But yeah, the life of men is just completely shit. All right, here's a question. 1.00

00:24:10.820 Geraldo is pushing the idea that the Democrats should offer, I guess Biden, a pardon or some

00:24:20.600 kind of clemency for Trump for anything he may have done or didn't do, and in return for him not

00:24:28.040 running for president. What do you think of Geraldo's plan? That Trump gets a full pardon

00:24:34.580 for anything imagined or actual, and in return he agrees to not run for president. Now, Geraldo

00:24:42.540 is Trump's friend. Imagine if it wasn't his friend. So we can assume that Trump might be tough

00:24:52.540 on Geraldo for making such a suggestion. I don't, I would say that's not something that's going to

00:24:59.600 happen, but it would be funny for Biden to offer it. I hate to say it. If it were reversed,

00:25:11.080 I would probably recommend that Trump offered it because it makes the other side look guilty.

00:25:17.320 Am I right? You offer pardons to people because you assume they're guilty. You don't give a pardon

00:25:25.280 to somebody who's not guilty. What would be the point of that? So if Biden were to offer

00:25:30.560 Trump full pardons for everything, even if Trump rejected the deal, it would send the signal that

00:25:39.320 he's guilty. So in terms of a persuasion play, it's pretty good. But I don't know why Geraldo's

00:25:45.640 recommending a persuasion play for the Democrats. I'm not sure what that's about. Especially

00:25:55.080 since it's not going to happen. All it would be is a persuasion play. All right, I'm going

00:25:59.420 to call out the Daily Caller for fake news today. They reported that Target and Bud Light have

00:26:06.580 lost a whopping $28 billion combined amid marketing decisions about transgender stuff. Do you think

00:26:15.080 that's true? Do you think Target and Light have lost $28 billion? On paper? Do you think

00:26:22.900 they lost it on paper? No, nothing like that has happened. Nope. Nothing like that has happened.

00:26:31.920 There are no losses. Yeah. Do you know what percent of Anheuser-Busch, let's see if you're up to date

00:26:39.160 on this news. If you're reading the news about the boycotts, there's one number you need to know

00:26:44.660 to understand the Anheuser-Busch Bud Light situation. Just one number. What percentage of Anheuser-Busch's

00:26:52.720 total sales was Bud Light at its height, at its best day? What percentage of total sales?

00:27:00.100 Tell me in the comments. I want to show you if you understand the news. I'm going to read

00:27:09.300 out some of your answers. They go from 1% to 25%. So this isn't one of those joke ones where

00:27:15.600 I go 25. So forget about the 25. That's not where I'm going with this one. Yeah, the answer

00:27:21.860 is 1%. Now, so of the total Anheuser-Busch, only 1% was Bud Light. And how much did the,

00:27:30.080 Bud Light go down in sales? About 25%, something like that, 27%. So it's 0.27%, right? It's maybe

00:27:44.760 a quarter of 1% is the full risk. Now, in the context of that 1% going down a little bit

00:27:53.920 further than 1%. The other business of Anheuser-Busch was stronger. So Anheuser-Busch's profits went

00:28:02.140 up. They just didn't go up, just not quite as much as they could have if there had been

00:28:09.220 no boycott. Anheuser-Busch basically didn't even bat an eye. There's like no difference at

00:28:15.880 all. Now, their stock is temporarily down. How much did that cost Budweiser or Anheuser-Busch,

00:28:22.540 that their stock went down? They don't own that stock. They don't own the stock. The investors

00:28:31.440 own the stock. You and I, I own the stock. Because I own a, well, no, I don't. I own an index fund,

00:28:37.700 but if it had been in there, I would own it. It's a foreign company, right? So I don't own that in my

00:28:43.920 Fortune 500. So, right? It's a German company? Or is it another? What is the nationality? It's Belgium?

00:28:54.980 Belgium. All right. Why is it Belgium? That's so weird. All right. There's a reason that

00:29:04.780 Belgium is funny that you don't know on the YouTube link, but the people on Locals know

00:29:12.120 that there's a backstory with a Belgian. It has to do with a comic that's upcoming. Anyway,

00:29:17.620 well, I'll tell you, I'll tell you since I've been so bad. In the Dilbert Reborn comic that you can

00:29:26.440 only see by subscription now, Dave the Engineer will be asked to be the head of DEI, and he's going

00:29:34.220 to add diversity by hiring a Belgian, which will be not the right answer. So that's upcoming. There'll be 1.00

00:29:45.520 a comic on that coming up. Anyway, so here's what will likely happen. Anheuser-Busch, their stock

00:29:54.280 probably went down, and do you know what's going to happen next? It will float back up. The stock price

00:30:02.380 follows profits. In the long run, always, right? That's just a rule. So if your company has a certain

00:30:12.360 level of profitability, your value of your company's stock is going to only trade within a narrow range.

00:30:21.160 And that's not going to change unless your profitability changes wildly at the same time.

00:30:26.200 So Anheuser-Busch's profitability stayed exactly the same, but their stock took a dump.

00:30:32.220 What is going to happen next? Only one thing. If the profits stay where they are, or even increase

00:30:41.320 as they have been, the stock will drift back to where it was. There's nothing else that can happen

00:30:47.860 because the free market will just guarantee it. In the short run, people will make investment

00:30:54.140 decisions with emotion. So the emotion drives the stock down. Oh, I don't want to be associated

00:31:00.320 with that company. But in the long run, other people will say, well, that looks cheap, and I don't

00:31:05.820 care about that issue at all. Right? So in the long run, people will bid it back up. Now, I did see that

00:31:12.900 their P.E. ratio looked a little high. If you're not an investor, a P.E. ratio is the profits to earnings

00:31:23.720 ratio. If it's above 15, then typically it's not the best idea to buy that stock unless it's a real

00:31:31.780 fast-growing company. If it's a normal company like Anheuser-Busch, a price-earnings ratio of 15,

00:31:38.740 15, that's about, it's telling you that the stock price is where it belongs. Anheuser-Busch,

00:31:46.700 I believe, is at 22. So it's actually still an expensive stock. So some part of why the stock

00:31:54.100 might have gone down is because it was going to go down anyway, and it just gave people a little

00:31:59.700 more visibility on it, so it happened faster. I'm seeing 17 and 14. Oh, is it 17 now?

00:32:09.540 I literally just looked it up. I mean, right before I came on, I looked it up, it was 22.

00:32:15.660 Or was it? Maybe I looked at it. Oh, I might have been looking at a different company. Never mind.

00:32:19.400 I looked at two different companies. Never mind. But anyway, the point stays the same.

00:32:24.760 That 17 would tell you the stock is about where it belongs. 17, 15, that's pretty close.

00:32:31.540 At 22, it would tell you it's overpriced. And at 8, it would tell you it's a bargain if everything

00:32:37.820 else was going well. All right. And I believe that the Daily Caller is feeding a narrative

00:32:46.920 by reporting it this way. The narrative is these boycotts are working, and people on the right

00:32:52.900 are finally getting their power. And a little bit of that's true. That's certainly true. But when

00:32:59.320 you say that your combined impact was $28 billion in losses, nothing like that happened. The actual

00:33:07.080 number was closer to zero, but reported as $28 billion. Now, do you think there's any reason

00:33:15.180 that Target's stock price would go down? Can you think of anything that's happening at

00:33:21.020 the same time that would make Target's price go down unrelated to any trans stuff? Yes.

00:33:29.440 It's what basically wiped out Alta the other day. Didn't wipe it out, but their stock price

00:33:34.240 took a big crap because of retail theft. So Target has the same problem, massive retail theft.

00:33:42.240 Having an investment in any retailer that doesn't have a solution to retail theft is just a bad

00:33:51.160 idea. Now, I don't give you investment advice, right? Don't take my investment advice, because

00:33:57.980 there are lots of variables that might, you know, change things. But one variable that's

00:34:02.760 really worrying is they have no solution to retail theft, and that would wipe them out of

00:34:08.500 business. So Target has an existential threat with no solution, as do all retail stores right

00:34:16.640 now. An existential threat, no solution. I don't know why you'd own that stock. And I

00:34:23.680 was an idiot for buying some Alta because I thought it would do well after the pandemic. 1.00

00:34:28.540 Instead, the shoplifting just took them out. Yeah, it's not theft, it's borrowing. All 1.00

00:34:36.680 right, here's potentially good news. Brian Rommel reports that there's a kind of a metal

00:34:43.420 called vanadium, which is fairly common. And apparently it can be used for a new kind of

00:34:50.060 battery that can store large amounts of energy almost indefinitely. And it's the 22nd most abundant

00:34:57.160 element in Earth. Now, this is like many stories that we've heard lately. Oh, there's a new element

00:35:03.200 and a new way of making a battery. If you look at any one of these stories, the odds of them being the

00:35:09.840 big thing are small, right? Any one story. But there are a bunch of them. There are a bunch of, you know,

00:35:16.660 startups making a new battery and new discoveries. So the odds of major, major improvements in battery

00:35:24.120 are close to 100 percent. Probably 100 percent. You just don't know which specific companies will

00:35:30.440 be the winners. It isn't expandable. Well, I think that everything around batteries is likely to improve

00:35:39.260 and probably a lot and not and not in very long. So and then Brian points out that if you connect

00:35:48.840 these batteries to a sterling engine, you've got unlimited free energy. Now, the sterling engine

00:35:54.720 is something that creates electricity whenever there's a difference in temperature in two things

00:36:00.560 that are somewhat near together. So you can dig a hole and it will be a different temperature at the

00:36:06.120 bottom of the hole than it would be above ground. And you just connect them with some wires and you can

00:36:11.740 make permanent free electricity. Now, a sterling engine doesn't create a ton of electricity from that

00:36:18.740 differential. The greater the differential, the more the electricity. But you could put do stuff

00:36:25.500 like put mirrors and, you know, ways to capture and accentuate the heat above the ground while

00:36:31.260 below the ground stays 56 degrees. So the engines are noisy. Yeah, maybe. So if you want to look up

00:36:41.160 a sterling engine, it's a real fun rabbit hole. I've spent lots of time looking at them. So it's sterling

00:36:46.540 spelled S-T-I-R-L-I-N-G. Sterling. Named after the inventor. All right, so that's happening. Maybe.

00:36:57.780 There was a story about, there was a fertility doctor who was accused of using his own sperm

00:37:03.300 to impregnate several patients. So that was the story. Dr. Morris Wartman, he was using his own sperm

00:37:13.100 on his patients. Well, the story is that he died in a private plane crash. And the story says it was a

00:37:20.200 it was a homemade plane. Or, you know, it wasn't a factory produced plane. So some some people build

00:37:28.080 their own planes from kits. So it was an experimental aircraft. And it went down when, quote, the preliminary

00:37:36.820 findings indicate that, quote, the wings of the aircraft became detached from the fuselage.

00:37:50.200 Now, I'm no expert on building airplanes from a kit. No expert at all. But I was married to a pilot.

00:37:58.880 And so I learned some things by osmosis, just being rounded. One of the things that a pilot does

00:38:04.860 before every flight with his small planes, is they walk around and check the bolts. Did you know that?

00:38:13.280 That's every time. Every time you fly. No exceptions. You walk around your own plane, if you're the pilot,

00:38:20.580 and you literally check all the bolts, make sure nothing came loose. Now, we assume that maybe that

00:38:28.720 didn't happen. I don't know. Maybe it didn't happen. Didn't do the check. But I would say in the business

00:38:35.600 of building an airplane, there's almost nothing more important than attaching the wings to the fuselage.

00:38:42.960 You could think of a lot of things that could go wrong in the construction of your experimental

00:38:48.580 aircraft. But nothing would be quite at the level of, hey, Bob, did you remember to attach the wings

00:38:57.780 to the fuselage? Or are they just kind of stuck together temporarily? Well, I didn't know I had to attach

00:39:04.020 them. I thought they were tearaway. So it was up there. And I'm trying to imagine the, like, what was going

00:39:15.280 through their heads? Imagine being up in the air and your wings fall off. And you're, now you're just

00:39:23.100 a fuselage. You're just a fuselage. And you're like, well, looking at my options, not so good. It's like

00:39:34.700 the knight in Monty Python. You know, loses his arms and legs. So that was probably a bad day.

00:39:44.080 But I have a special fear of dying in a way that looks like my own fault and knowing it before it

00:39:51.940 happens. So while the entire thing is a tragedy, you know, there were deaths, there were two people who

00:39:58.400 died. So that's a tragedy. We can't lose sight of that. But from the time that the wings fell off

00:40:05.420 to the time that they hit the ground, they not only had to be, you know, experiencing the terror of the

00:40:13.100 situation itself, but whoever was in charge of building this thing is thinking, I knew I should

00:40:19.860 have attached those. I thought about it. I thought, attach the wings. And then I just got, I got

00:40:28.080 distracted. Yeah, it would feel very bad as you're plunging to your death. Now, let me give you a story

00:40:38.060 of small aircraft danger. So when my ex-wife was learning to fly, one of her flights was with an

00:40:48.600 instructor who had been a military pilot. So the military pilots have, you know, real good training

00:40:55.200 for emergency everything. So they get up in the air and they're, you know, maximum height and they lose

00:41:02.840 their engine. They just lose their engine. And they're like, I don't know, a mile in the air with no

00:41:12.780 engine. And it's not going to come back. So the, I don't know if the, I imagine the instructor wasn't

00:41:22.200 flying until the problem happened. I think he took over when the problem happened. And, but they weren't

00:41:26.740 too far from the airport. So they, they just taken off from a small airport. So there, there was plenty

00:41:33.460 of, plenty of time to glide back to the airport because they had just taken off. And for the small

00:41:39.540 planes, you know, they do learn how to glide them back. So it wouldn't be that much of a problem.

00:41:46.080 Scary as hell. But for an experienced pilot who's right above the airport, and it's a small airport,

00:41:51.860 so they can just tell everybody to chill for like 20 minutes. You can just tell everybody to chill.

00:41:58.300 And then, you know, you just do your landing. Except the pilot says, um, the guy who owns the plane,

00:42:05.280 who was the head of the flight school, he's going to be really pissed if we don't get this home.

00:42:10.880 Because if you leave your broken airplane at another airport, it's just harder to get it fixed.

00:42:15.980 Right? So he's like, I think we should glide to the other airport 12 miles away.

00:42:23.180 And my ex-wife said, all right. He glided 12 miles to the other airport, the home airport,

00:42:35.860 landed perfectly. No problem at all. It wasn't even hard. He was a very good pilot. He just glided 12

00:42:45.860 miles, took it in. First try. Yeah, that's pretty baller. Now, if you ever have a plane,

00:42:53.160 have a chance to be the spouse of somebody who is learning to fly a small aircraft, good luck.

00:43:01.980 Good luck. Because I heard that kind of story more than once. That wasn't the one time something

00:43:08.160 bad happened in the air. Wasn't the one time. So yeah, that's scary stuff. All right. Well,

00:43:16.620 apparently the doctor built that airplane by hand and he did a lot of bad things by hand.

00:43:27.520 I'm just going to leave it right there. Trump said he would sign an executive order to end

00:43:33.980 birthright citizenship should he become president again. Now you're going to say to yourself,

00:43:40.120 Scott, Scott, Scott, Scott. He can't do that. It's in the Constitution. The Constitution gives birthright

00:43:48.400 citizenship. If you're born here, you're a citizen, period. And there's no way that the president can

00:43:55.260 change that with just some executive order. Or is there? Or is there? The executive orders,

00:44:03.720 the way they work is they alter the interpretation of existing laws and constitutional stuff. And

00:44:13.960 apparently there is a, not a terrible argument that the original 14th Amendment had a specific

00:44:22.480 purpose, which was the children of slaves. So they wanted to make, correct me if I'm wrong. I believe

00:44:29.280 the idea was that the children of slaves would be guaranteed citizenship, which is weird that that

00:44:36.240 was ever a question, which is amazing to me. But, and then it got extended, you know, it got,

00:44:43.180 you know, generalized and used for everybody after that. But the argument would be that the executive

00:44:48.600 order would do nothing but interpret the Constitution in a more original way,

00:44:55.160 more original interpretation. Now, it might survive the challenge in the Supreme Court,

00:45:04.080 and it might not, but it's not a terrible idea. Not a terrible idea, if that's what you want

00:45:10.020 it to do, you know, in terms of is it legal enough? It might be. It might be. It'd be an

00:45:15.740 interesting challenge. I don't know who would win on that. All right, I've got a question for you

00:45:20.940 that, because I see so many videos of people getting beaten up online. Did you see the video

00:45:26.980 of the Marines who were surrounded by the teenagers, and the teenagers were beating them up on the beach?

00:45:33.520 And the Marines were curled up in fetal positions, and they were just taking the beatings. And you've

00:45:41.820 probably seen a lot of, especially school beatings, where the student who's the victim will

00:45:46.740 just curl up and just take the beating. And it just goes on and on, what seems like forever.

00:45:52.460 But they don't fight back. You know, once they get in that fetal position, they just stay there.

00:45:57.560 And even when they're being punched in the head and kicked in the head, they just stay there.

00:46:01.680 And I have this question. Is that your best strategy? Because I can't imagine doing it.

00:46:10.080 Like, my brain can't even process that. If I got hit, I would lose all control. I don't know how you

00:46:20.540 work, but if somebody hits me with the intention of hurting me, and then they keep doing it,

00:46:25.960 my entire consciousness would flip off. I would turn into an animal. I wouldn't care about any

00:46:34.240 amount of hurt. I would go into full attack mode. I would go for the eyes, the throat, the balls. 0.70

00:46:41.880 I would look for a weapon, and I would look to end them as quickly as possible. And I can't even 1.00

00:46:46.720 imagine crawling up and letting somebody beat me. But as I watch them, I note they all survive.

00:46:55.300 It seems like they have a very high survival rate. And so I wonder if the Marines were doing

00:47:00.120 exactly the right thing, knowing that they could have hurt, you know, the Marines, if they had gotten

00:47:05.020 up, the people beating them were smaller. Like, one-on-one, those Marines could have probably killed

00:47:12.480 two or three teenagers before they got overwhelmed. But they didn't. They took the beating.

00:47:21.040 And it makes me wonder if there's some training. Is there any kind of official training that tells

00:47:25.360 you had to deal with a crowd-beating situation? Because I would go to my death. Like, I wouldn't

00:47:33.040 even hesitate. I would say, all right, we're going to die now. Somebody's going to die. It 0.83

00:47:37.220 could be me. It could be you. But somebody's dying. There's definitely going to be some dying

00:47:40.840 happening. It might be you. It might be me. But we're not leaving here until somebody's dead.

00:47:46.920 I mean, that's how I would feel. For a bear attack, they're taught to be tortured and

00:47:58.140 survive. Yeah. It would probably be me. It probably would be. Yeah. I'm not saying, it depends

00:48:07.820 who. If it were teenagers, if teenagers attacked me, I would try to kill one of them. So the 1.00

00:48:15.820 others would pause. I'd probably pick the weakest one and just try to actually kill them as fast 1.00

00:48:22.100 as possible. Wouldn't you? I think if you kill one, it just changes the dynamic. So you've got 1.00

00:48:29.840 to kill one right away. That's what I would have done. All right. But don't take my advice on that 1.00

00:48:38.500 either. Rasmussen has a poll of what Americans think about who's winning in Ukraine. And only

00:48:50.380 17% of likely U.S. voters believe Russia is winning. 17% think Russia is winning. Does that 0.96

00:48:58.680 seem low? Does that seem like an opinion that people came to on their own? Or does that seem

00:49:07.980 like the media told them that Russia can't win? I feel like the media is telling people that Ukraine

00:49:14.800 is doing great and the opinions are just being accepted by the public. Because I can't even imagine

00:49:22.640 that the public on their own just looked at the situation and only 17% of them thought that Russia

00:49:31.640 is winning. Does that sound right? Well, let's see. 25% think Ukraine is winning. So I guess

00:49:45.240 most people think nobody's winning. 43% of voters believe it would be better for American interests

00:49:54.660 if Ukraine keeps fighting until the Russian invasion is completely defeated. Now that's

00:50:01.760 scary. 43% think we're better off pushing the war as far as possible. 42% think we'd better

00:50:13.520 be better to negotiate. Now, I tweeted this and it got a good response. The Ukraine situation

00:50:23.560 is not a war anymore. At one point it was a war. At this point, it's not a war, in my opinion,

00:50:31.900 because my definition of a war would be that at least one side has a reasonable expectation

00:50:38.260 of winning, whatever that looks like, you know, winning something. But we don't have

00:50:43.700 that. We have two sides who are in a conflict. Neither side can win. I think they both know

00:50:50.480 that. So this is a negotiation. It's a violent negotiation. And as soon as you see it like

00:50:59.700 that, it does change how you feel about it. Because the whole who's going to win, who's going

00:51:04.760 to take over more territory, appears to be settled. It appears to be settled. There might

00:51:09.580 be some, you know, minor border changes from now. But basically, Ukraine's going to be

00:51:14.460 there. And basically, Russia will still exist, too, when it's all done. So I think that all 0.92

00:51:21.900 it is is a negotiation, that they're trying to get the best position, hurt the other one

00:51:27.540 as much as possible, so that when there's finally a Republican president who can end it, whether

00:51:33.760 it's Trump or someone else, that they'll negotiate, you know, their best deal they can get. And

00:51:39.660 then somebody said to me online, Scott, Scott, Scott, how could Trump or anybody else, you

00:51:46.320 know, cause them to negotiate? How can anybody force them to do it? To which I say, easily.

00:51:55.500 Easily. You just threaten both of them with extraordinary pain. It's the way you get anything done.

00:52:01.460 You say, look, we're going to turn off both of you. We're going to shut down the Russian 1.00

00:52:07.280 economy if you keep fighting. And we're going to starve Ukraine of resources. So if you both 0.99

00:52:13.300 want to go down, you're now both our enemies. So we will now be the enemy of both Ukraine and 0.98

00:52:18.400 Russia. But it's to the death. So if that's what you want, go ahead. But or you could just 0.92

00:52:23.080 negotiate. Or you could negotiate. You can either have the United States enter the war against

00:52:29.580 both of you, because we're not going to put up with any more, or negotiate. And then suddenly

00:52:36.300 what makes sense? Half squat. What's a half squat? Yeah. The attacking of Moscow, I think,

00:52:48.800 is good strategy. Because the Moscow people need to be awakened to the fact that, you know,

00:52:56.020 that the danger could come to their doorstep if things get out of control. So I think that's

00:53:01.660 good negotiating. I don't, of course, I'm not in favor of attacking any residential areas.

00:53:10.240 You're fatalistic today? Or am I realistic? Fatalistic in the sense that I think the war will end

00:53:17.540 in a negotiated way. That's sort of the opposite of fatalistic. Andrew, never give Scott Adams any

00:53:25.120 real power. You don't think I have real power? It's a little too late for that. But good luck.

00:53:37.340 So there's more rumors that Purgosian, the head of the Wagner group, might want to take over Russia

00:53:50.260 and take over Putin. And when asked about it, Purgosian said, his army isn't that powerful.

00:53:59.540 Just hold that in your brain. When Purgosian was asked, do you intend to try to take over the

00:54:07.100 whole country? He said, my army isn't that powerful. That's a yes. That is a yes. He does want to take

00:54:20.160 over the country. But he's also being very clear that it could not be done by militarily beating the

00:54:27.780 Russian military. However, that wouldn't be the way you do it. That wouldn't be the smart way to 0.73

00:54:34.760 even do it. The smart way is to become more of a symbol of success than Putin is. So if Putin can

00:54:42.560 look like a failure, at the same time Purgosian is looking stronger, he could possibly bribe some

00:54:49.640 inner circle people to join his team. If I were Purgosian, here's how I would take Putin out.

00:54:55.680 Okay, I can't get anywhere near his inner circle, because he's got, you know, he's got his loyal

00:55:01.540 guards all around. So you find the head of his loyal guards. You say, hey, Igor, I know you're loyal

00:55:10.240 to this guy, but he's going down. And if you'll allow me to give you a billion dollars to stand out of

00:55:18.400 way and stand down, you'll be in good shape after I take over. I don't know. I think you

00:55:26.740 bribe some people, you murder some people, you threaten some people, you use PR, and maybe you

00:55:32.940 find a way to poison Putin. You know, I feel like there are a variety of ways that Purgosian

00:55:39.280 might be entertaining. I'm seeing somebody who believes something that Andrew Tate said.

00:55:49.920 If you believe anything that Andrew Tate said about that situation, you need to check your

00:55:57.920 assumptions. All right. Try the same technique on the mob of teenagers, bribery. Oh, let me give

00:56:13.020 you a hypnosis tip in case a crowd threatens you. You ready for this? Let's say multiple people

00:56:21.180 surround you. Not the biggest crowd in the world, but let's say it's a crowd of five people.

00:56:27.920 So let's say five people against you. And, you know, first they're talking, but you know they're

00:56:34.240 surrounding you and they're going to beat the crap out of you. Here's what I would try. I don't know 0.97

00:56:39.200 that this would work, but here's what I would try. Which one of you is in charge? That's what I'd say.

00:56:48.200 Which one of you is in charge? Do you know why? It changes their frame. If their frame is,

00:56:56.300 we're going to beat the shit out of you, and you change it to who's in charge, suddenly you've created 0.98

00:57:02.500 some infighting because they hadn't thought of it that way. Well, I don't know. Who's in charge? And 0.99

00:57:07.900 you say, I just want to talk to who's in charge. And then if they won't tell you who's in charge, you

00:57:12.820 pick one. You pick the big one. You say, you look like you're in charge. Am I right?

00:57:18.540 And what you say is, you can beat me up. There's nothing I can do about it. But I'd like to talk

00:57:27.840 to who's in charge. It would just change the frame. Now, I don't know if that would save you,

00:57:34.240 but it's the first thing I'd try. Try changing the frame to a conversation of you with whoever's in

00:57:40.540 charge. Just try it. It's better than whatever you were going to do. I'm seeing somebody challenge

00:57:51.640 me to be as man, man enough as Andrew Tate. If only I could be like your role model, Andrew

00:58:01.640 Tate. If only. If only I could be more like him. My life would be complete.

00:58:10.460 All right. Hey, I want to talk to the manager. The Karen defense. Exactly. How to persuade the 0.99

00:58:17.260 one in charge. Well, here's what you do. If you can persuade the one in charge or make

00:58:23.260 one think that they're in charge, then they feel good about being in charge. And that will

00:58:29.480 replace the dopamine that they were going to get by punching you to death. If you can 0.96

00:58:33.960 get them to accept that they're in charge, you might get them to accept that they can

00:58:38.500 prove it by telling the others not to beat you up. So basically, you want to move them

00:58:44.560 to the question of who's in charge and is that person going to stop the fighting from the unambiguous, 0.98

00:58:51.360 yes, yeah, we're about to kill you now. Tate says roll with lots of friends. How'd that 0.98

00:59:04.460 work out? Where are all Tate's friends right now? Trying to get them out of jail?

00:59:09.600 All right. That is what I've got for you for today. I believe it was entertaining and

00:59:24.200 not as good as the UFOs. Did anybody check on the UFOs yet? Breaking news, NASA confirms interaction

00:59:32.980 with a spacecraft. No way. No way. That can't be true. So let me see if I can find an update

00:59:48.420 on that. Who would have that? Does anybody see an update on the UFOs? It's on CNN?

01:00:02.980 All right. Tennis champ engaged to a fan who asked for a selfie during the U.S. Open. Wow.

01:00:15.220 That's one way to get married. Ask for a selfie. All right. I'm guessing that the UFO thing

01:00:23.940 is a bunch of nothing. Yeah, I don't believe there's any aliens. But here's my

01:00:32.820 current view. If you want to check my prediction. My prediction is we will not discover any living

01:00:41.160 aliens. But it might be true that there are things flying through the air that are automated.

01:00:47.260 So there might be some kind of robotic thing going on. And it might be from an earlier civilization

01:00:53.760 of Earthlings or some other planet or some other civilization we don't know about. But I don't

01:01:00.080 think there are any... And part of that is because if the things they say are spaceships are really

01:01:06.020 spaceships, and if they're moving at like 20 Gs or whatever it is, there wouldn't be any living

01:01:13.740 thing in there. They could be ancient Egyptian flying vehicles from inside the moon. Digital UFOs.

01:01:29.740 Could they be silicon-based life forms? Oh, they could have AI. Oh, how about that? What if the ships

01:01:41.220 do have AI and it's sentient that would be able to withstand any amount of Gs? No, that could

01:01:50.080 be. Maybe it's a digital AI. It's possible. You have a brother who trusts Adam Schiff? You should

01:02:10.160 get away from that, brother. Would I go to Mars? Nope. Under no scenario.

01:02:27.160 All right. Oh, here we go.

01:02:35.060 Oh, private insurance won't cover plants? No, that's not a good argument.

01:02:39.300 The head of the Pentagon's newly formed has said the existence of intelligence in the

01:02:44.300 aliens has not been ruled out. Oh, but no evidence. Okay.

01:02:55.200 It looks like there's no news about aliens.

01:02:58.160 Would you go to space? I doubt it. You need to do more research.

01:03:16.840 Hey, John, what is wrong with you mentally? Do you need some help? John Soprich. He's just screaming

01:03:31.200 in all caps at me on different topics. John, you might need to get some help. That doesn't look

01:03:38.660 like an opinion. That looks like a cry for help. So go get some help.

01:03:47.340 I'd probably have to be vaccinated to go to Mars.

01:03:55.340 Would I go to an underground farm? Probably not.

01:03:57.540 All right. That's all for now.

01:04:09.540 Aliens are from the future, traveling back in time.

01:04:12.820 I doubt it.

01:04:16.040 I doubt it.

01:04:17.820 All right. That's all for now.

01:04:19.000 And I'll talk to you, YouTube, tomorrow.

01:04:22.540 Come back again.

01:04:23.420 Come back in.

01:04:42.460 Come back.

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Real Coffee with Scott Adams - May 31, 2023

Episode 2125 Scott Adams： Trump Goes Savage, Ukraine Is Not A War, Depressed Men, Fake Boycott News

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