Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2133 Scott Adams： Trump Indictment Coming, Biden Briber, Aliens Landing, Pence's Bad Timing

00:00:00.000 Do, do, do, do, do, do, do.

00:00:03.840 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of civilization.

00:00:09.360 Also, my birthday, if you didn't know that.

00:00:12.100 That's right, I'm 66 years old in the sixth month.

00:00:15.900 But don't let that bother you.

00:00:17.500 It doesn't mean a thing.

00:00:19.080 If you'd like today to be extra, extra special, just like mine is,

00:00:23.760 all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a chalice or a stein,

00:00:27.060 a canteen, a jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:30.800 Fill it with your favorite liquid I like, coffee.

00:00:33.560 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine hit of the day,

00:00:37.260 the thing that makes everything better.

00:00:38.660 It's the birthday sip, and it's coming at you now.

00:00:41.520 Go.

00:00:46.180 Ah, extra good.

00:00:50.180 Oh, I feel the love.

00:00:53.640 I'm feeling the love.

00:00:54.960 But we have lots and lots of news to talk about,

00:00:59.100 so I know you want to hear about that.

00:01:01.520 Top story today, there is a case of a crocodile that had a virgin birth.

00:01:08.680 It was in captivity for 16 years with no other crocodiles,

00:01:13.700 and yet it produced eggs.

00:01:17.000 So, virgin birth.

00:01:18.820 I have two things to say about that.

00:01:20.420 Number one, I would wait until the eggs hatch

00:01:23.380 and see if they bear any resemblance to the habitat keeper

00:01:27.940 who has been caring and feeding for the alligator for 16 years.

00:01:32.160 They may have fallen in love.

00:01:33.420 Maybe something happened.

00:01:34.340 I don't know.

00:01:34.980 But I'd wait and see the eggs.

00:01:36.900 If it looks like the gamekeeper,

00:01:39.920 well, then you have your answer.

00:01:40.880 However, if it turns out that it was a genuine virgin birth,

00:01:48.400 what is the most important thing?

00:01:51.440 The most important thing.

00:01:54.220 Don't tell the other crocodiles.

00:01:57.580 You know what I mean?

00:01:58.500 Because otherwise you're going to have a little crocodile religion, 1.00

00:02:02.780 and they're all going to be wanting to pray to that crocodile,

00:02:06.020 and you don't want any of that.

00:02:07.520 Just do not tell the other crocodiles.

00:02:09.760 That's all I'm saying.

00:02:11.780 Don't tell them.

00:02:13.240 Well, in other big news, yeah, we'll get to all the political news also.

00:02:17.740 But you need to know that the Large Hadron Collider

00:02:21.600 is getting ready to, what is it,

00:02:24.760 make contact with another dimension.

00:02:28.500 That's right.

00:02:31.140 They hope to open a black hole

00:02:32.900 and make contact with another dimension.

00:02:39.280 And I don't see what could go wrong.

00:02:42.660 What could go wrong?

00:02:46.140 I mean, what does that other dimension have that we don't have?

00:02:49.980 Do their crocodiles have to have sex before they have eggs? 0.95

00:02:53.660 Ours don't.

00:02:54.960 So it might be like a crummy kind of a...

00:02:57.760 What if it's a dimension where everything's the same

00:03:00.240 except San Francisco has clean sidewalks?

00:03:03.920 It's all the same.

00:03:06.520 Wouldn't it be cool if we found another dimension

00:03:08.560 that was just like ours but more Canadian?

00:03:11.960 That's what I think when I go to Canada.

00:03:15.960 When I go to Canada, I don't feel like I'm in another country.

00:03:20.620 I feel like I'm in another dimension where something happened to America.

00:03:24.840 What's wrong with the money?

00:03:26.360 Who did this to our money?

00:03:28.440 Why do you say sorry?

00:03:30.160 Just say sorry.

00:03:31.700 Don't say sorry.

00:03:32.420 But, you know, it's just sort of like another dimensional situation.

00:03:41.580 I might be getting some happy birthday text messages while we're on the air.

00:03:46.920 And sure enough, I am.

00:03:50.980 All right.

00:03:53.620 What was I talking about?

00:03:55.100 Other dimensions.

00:03:56.020 What if we find out that we're a simulation?

00:04:01.800 It seems to be that one of the things that could happen

00:04:04.860 is as the physics probes into the deeper and deeper secrets of our reality,

00:04:10.620 we'll find out it's all artificial

00:04:12.480 and that there's nothing below the level we're at.

00:04:17.560 There should be some level beyond which there's nothing else.

00:04:20.880 I think it would prove that we're a simulation

00:04:27.740 if you found the bottom of physics.

00:04:31.860 In other words, if you found the most fundamental item,

00:04:34.840 that would mean we're a simulation.

00:04:37.500 Because if we were real,

00:04:40.280 you could go down forever

00:04:41.800 and everything would be made of something else

00:04:44.800 to infinity.

00:04:46.380 I think.

00:04:50.660 Because if everything is the same stuff,

00:04:53.280 nothing would move.

00:04:55.300 All right.

00:04:59.680 Northeast still under smoke.

00:05:01.620 How many of you think that the fires coming out of Canada

00:05:05.340 were naturally occurring?

00:05:08.780 Well, that includes arson.

00:05:10.480 But how many think it's an attack

00:05:13.060 versus just some arson or something?

00:05:17.780 Do you think it's an attack?

00:05:20.600 Sure looks like it.

00:05:23.340 Yeah.

00:05:24.100 I was looking at some tweets.

00:05:28.640 I guess I won't mention the name of the tweeter.

00:05:32.400 But one is an accident,

00:05:35.500 two is a coincidence,

00:05:37.080 three is an attack.

00:05:39.380 I think that was the saying.

00:05:40.580 Yeah, three coincidences is an attack.

00:05:44.760 Two coincidences,

00:05:46.160 well, maybe it's a coincidence.

00:05:49.340 But there are some satellite images

00:05:51.700 showing that the fires

00:05:52.780 seem to have started around the same time.

00:05:56.060 In the context of our southern border

00:05:58.260 being wide open,

00:06:00.000 and correct me if I'm wrong,

00:06:01.420 if you get through our southern border,

00:06:03.580 it's not a big deal to get into Canada, is it?

00:06:06.760 Does Canada have a wall?

00:06:07.860 So, who knows?

00:06:10.460 Maybe some saboteurs

00:06:12.100 are coming through the U.S.

00:06:13.400 and setting Canada on fire

00:06:15.580 just at the right time

00:06:16.620 to make the smoke come our way.

00:06:20.260 Maybe.

00:06:21.360 I don't know.

00:06:24.040 If it were an attack,

00:06:26.400 we would see other attacks like it.

00:06:29.560 So, it seems to me

00:06:30.640 that we would see more things

00:06:32.020 that look like organized activity.

00:06:34.300 But if this is the only thing,

00:06:37.020 I don't know.

00:06:39.100 I'm not sure this is attack-like.

00:06:41.560 I'm going to say

00:06:42.480 I'm not buying into the attack theory,

00:06:46.360 but it's definitely on the table.

00:06:48.960 Definitely on the table.

00:06:51.000 Well, as you know,

00:06:52.180 Tucker did his little monologue on Twitter

00:06:55.380 and got, what's it up to?

00:06:59.200 Probably 70 million impressions by now.

00:07:01.680 Something like that.

00:07:02.420 But Fox News lawyers are angry

00:07:06.560 because they say,

00:07:07.780 you can't do that.

00:07:09.200 We still have you on contract at Fox News.

00:07:11.760 You're not allowed to do a show.

00:07:13.860 To which people like Glenn Greenwald say,

00:07:16.420 a show?

00:07:18.100 All he did was talk on social media.

00:07:20.880 You're not allowed to talk on social media

00:07:22.620 to say anything you want

00:07:24.820 in any way you want,

00:07:26.360 which is a pretty good defense.

00:07:28.100 Now, what we don't know

00:07:29.880 is, is Tucker

00:07:32.560 in any kind of a contract

00:07:34.100 with Twitter?

00:07:35.740 In other words,

00:07:36.500 did he monetize that?

00:07:38.620 His first go,

00:07:40.980 did he monetize it?

00:07:42.100 Because if he didn't monetize it,

00:07:43.880 which is possible,

00:07:45.100 maybe he didn't monetize it,

00:07:47.140 and how would he monetize it?

00:07:50.060 What would be the mechanism

00:07:51.320 for monetizing?

00:07:53.060 How do you monetize a tweet?

00:07:54.520 Were there extra ads

00:07:57.000 that were added

00:07:58.000 into the comments or something?

00:08:02.640 Yeah.

00:08:03.540 He would have to be

00:08:04.180 on the payroll or something,

00:08:05.580 and I don't think that's happening.

00:08:07.560 I don't think so.

00:08:10.040 So we'll wait and see,

00:08:11.700 but I like the fact

00:08:12.500 that Tucker is pushing the envelope

00:08:15.960 as he always does.

00:08:17.700 I love the fact,

00:08:19.480 when he did the video,

00:08:21.020 I said to myself,

00:08:21.840 did they already settle?

00:08:24.320 It seemed like it would be too soon

00:08:25.700 to settle all that legal stuff.

00:08:28.120 So is he just pushing the envelope

00:08:29.540 to try to break it,

00:08:30.700 see what happens?

00:08:31.820 And that's what it looks like.

00:08:33.160 It looks like,

00:08:35.360 well, I don't think he's got

00:08:36.300 a subscription service yet.

00:08:39.680 But if he does,

00:08:41.200 maybe that's coming.

00:08:43.240 All right.

00:08:44.020 Well, I just like the fact

00:08:45.560 he's pushing the envelope

00:08:46.540 as he always does.

00:08:47.320 So the news is saying

00:08:51.280 the signals look like

00:08:53.560 there might be a Trump

00:08:55.200 summer hoax indictment

00:08:57.360 over his boxes.

00:08:59.460 What do you think?

00:09:00.560 Is that going to be

00:09:01.200 the summer hoax?

00:09:03.140 The Trump summer hoax.

00:09:05.280 Mar-a-Lago boxes.

00:09:06.580 We've been waiting

00:09:07.220 to get serious about this.

00:09:10.340 Yeah, some people think so

00:09:12.300 because there was a meeting

00:09:13.220 between Trump's lawyers

00:09:14.860 and the DOJ

00:09:15.880 which usually signals

00:09:18.100 they're ready to indict.

00:09:20.520 And Bill Barr thinks

00:09:21.500 they're ready to indict.

00:09:25.620 Now, the biggest knock

00:09:27.780 against Trump

00:09:29.020 on these boxes,

00:09:30.220 the Mar-a-Lago boxes,

00:09:32.280 we see it in the press

00:09:33.640 but we haven't seen

00:09:34.500 if the legal system

00:09:35.980 will use this yet.

00:09:37.760 And it is that

00:09:38.660 on one hand

00:09:40.180 he's claiming

00:09:40.820 that anything he takes out

00:09:42.620 of privacy,

00:09:44.620 it takes out

00:09:45.240 of a secure place,

00:09:47.080 is automatically

00:09:47.960 and by virtue

00:09:50.560 of moving it,

00:09:52.060 he's declassified it.

00:09:53.320 So he doesn't even

00:09:53.960 have to say the words.

00:09:55.380 The president has

00:09:56.220 full authority

00:09:57.240 to declassify

00:09:58.300 and there is no

00:09:59.860 written process

00:10:01.000 for doing it.

00:10:02.720 However,

00:10:03.880 there is a

00:10:05.260 historical standard

00:10:06.780 for doing it

00:10:07.840 which is different

00:10:08.880 from a law.

00:10:09.520 and he showed

00:10:11.620 knowledge of that

00:10:12.840 standard

00:10:13.380 in some document,

00:10:16.400 either a document

00:10:17.540 or a recording

00:10:18.380 or something.

00:10:19.420 So he knew

00:10:20.220 that there was

00:10:21.240 at least one piece

00:10:22.120 of information

00:10:22.680 he couldn't show people

00:10:23.820 because it was private

00:10:24.940 or, you know,

00:10:27.340 it was secure.

00:10:29.080 I don't think

00:10:29.980 that argument holds.

00:10:32.240 I don't think

00:10:32.740 that argument works

00:10:33.580 at all.

00:10:34.720 Do you?

00:10:35.800 The fact that he said

00:10:37.220 there was something

00:10:37.760 he couldn't show

00:10:38.440 to somebody

00:10:38.960 because, you know,

00:10:39.940 hadn't gone

00:10:40.340 through a process

00:10:41.180 doesn't seem

00:10:42.820 related to me

00:10:43.760 to the fact

00:10:44.680 that he didn't

00:10:45.140 declassify anything

00:10:46.340 because even if

00:10:47.800 you had declassified

00:10:48.960 something by taking

00:10:50.300 it out of its

00:10:50.940 secure environment

00:10:51.880 in theory,

00:10:53.620 there'd still be

00:10:54.360 things you can't

00:10:55.020 show people,

00:10:56.280 right?

00:10:57.620 Just because he

00:10:58.740 just because he'd

00:10:59.840 moved it from

00:11:00.400 one place to another

00:11:01.340 that doesn't mean

00:11:02.720 you could just

00:11:03.160 show it to anybody.

00:11:04.540 So it might have

00:11:05.380 been that he was

00:11:06.060 concerned about

00:11:07.620 who saw it,

00:11:08.860 which would be

00:11:09.620 slightly different

00:11:10.480 from who is

00:11:11.760 legally able to

00:11:12.760 see it and

00:11:13.380 whether it's

00:11:14.040 classified and

00:11:14.960 all that.

00:11:16.300 So, you know,

00:11:17.740 Trump has such

00:11:19.100 a history of

00:11:21.600 hyperbole that

00:11:23.720 if he said one

00:11:24.600 thing under one

00:11:25.340 context and

00:11:26.180 another thing

00:11:26.740 under another

00:11:27.300 context,

00:11:29.180 everybody would

00:11:30.100 say, well,

00:11:30.880 okay, that's

00:11:31.280 just what he

00:11:31.740 does.

00:11:33.140 It just wouldn't

00:11:34.000 even look unusual

00:11:34.780 to me because

00:11:36.920 he probably

00:11:37.520 exaggerated what

00:11:38.520 he could or

00:11:39.020 could not show

00:11:39.640 to another

00:11:40.040 person.

00:11:41.460 He may have

00:11:42.280 stretched the

00:11:43.260 truth just to

00:11:44.860 avoid showing

00:11:45.540 somebody something,

00:11:46.660 right?

00:11:46.980 There are a hundred

00:11:47.600 reasons why he

00:11:48.420 may have said

00:11:48.900 something that

00:11:49.380 wasn't technically

00:11:50.120 accurate, just

00:11:51.480 because he wanted

00:11:52.100 something.

00:11:54.800 So I've got a

00:11:55.800 feeling that will

00:11:56.400 not be a legal

00:11:57.540 problem for him,

00:11:58.500 but we're going

00:11:59.400 to talk about it

00:12:00.080 all summer long.

00:12:01.220 All right.

00:12:06.180 There's a theory

00:12:07.200 that AI is

00:12:09.740 already in charge

00:12:10.640 of our elections.

00:12:12.040 This might be

00:12:12.980 the last election

00:12:14.780 that is not

00:12:16.320 determined by AI,

00:12:18.040 or it might be

00:12:19.400 determined by AI

00:12:20.300 because we still

00:12:20.940 have it, you

00:12:21.340 know, over a year

00:12:22.040 to go before the

00:12:22.780 actual election.

00:12:23.940 And here's the

00:12:24.600 argument.

00:12:25.680 The argument is

00:12:26.920 it's inevitable

00:12:27.820 that AI will be

00:12:29.740 used for online

00:12:31.200 campaigning.

00:12:32.500 Would you agree

00:12:33.180 so far?

00:12:33.760 Let's see if we

00:12:34.300 can agree as we

00:12:36.060 work up from

00:12:36.680 assumptions to

00:12:38.360 prediction.

00:12:39.640 Assumption one,

00:12:40.600 AI will be used

00:12:41.660 by campaigns to

00:12:43.140 improve their

00:12:43.720 campaigning.

00:12:44.980 Assumption two,

00:12:46.300 one way that AI

00:12:47.420 will improve over

00:12:49.160 the old way is 0.95

00:12:50.580 to give people

00:12:51.460 very individual

00:12:52.780 campaign ads so

00:12:54.480 that the campaign

00:12:55.220 ad I see might

00:12:56.400 be different than

00:12:57.060 the one everybody

00:12:57.740 else in the world

00:12:58.340 sees.

00:12:59.420 So in other words,

00:13:00.160 it can learn

00:13:01.080 from interaction

00:13:02.000 with me.

00:13:03.260 Let's say it

00:13:03.780 sends me something

00:13:04.480 and I don't

00:13:05.040 click on it.

00:13:06.060 Well, it learned

00:13:06.620 I won't click on

00:13:07.360 that.

00:13:08.060 Then it sends me

00:13:08.680 something else

00:13:09.280 and it might be

00:13:09.780 about puppies.

00:13:11.380 It might have

00:13:11.860 nothing to do

00:13:12.400 with politics.

00:13:13.440 It could be

00:13:13.920 puppies.

00:13:14.820 And I click on

00:13:15.520 it, what's

00:13:16.520 going to happen

00:13:16.860 next?

00:13:18.120 Next thing I'm

00:13:18.820 going to get is

00:13:19.420 a campaign ad

00:13:20.400 with puppies

00:13:20.920 because I just

00:13:22.140 learned puppies

00:13:22.860 activate me.

00:13:24.900 So you take

00:13:25.860 that and multiply

00:13:27.040 it by a million

00:13:27.760 and you've

00:13:29.140 got your

00:13:29.680 AI learning

00:13:30.600 about you

00:13:31.180 individually

00:13:32.200 and then

00:13:33.420 serving you

00:13:34.080 up persuasion

00:13:35.020 individualized.

00:13:37.100 If it found

00:13:37.960 out, for example,

00:13:38.720 that you had

00:13:39.080 posted, let's

00:13:39.700 say, some

00:13:40.900 gun pictures,

00:13:42.320 then it's

00:13:43.180 going to say,

00:13:43.540 oh, you're

00:13:43.900 one of those

00:13:44.300 Second Amendment

00:13:44.840 people.

00:13:45.800 And it's

00:13:46.400 going to say,

00:13:47.120 here's my best

00:13:47.920 argument for

00:13:48.720 why you should

00:13:49.140 vote for my

00:13:49.700 candidate based

00:13:51.080 on your

00:13:51.720 preference for

00:13:52.580 owning guns.

00:13:53.200 So in

00:13:54.880 theory, the

00:13:56.040 best AI will

00:13:56.900 be better than

00:13:57.500 the best

00:13:57.860 campaign ads

00:13:58.680 and better

00:13:59.040 than the best

00:13:59.620 candidate.

00:14:00.560 Even the

00:14:00.960 candidate wouldn't

00:14:01.580 be able to

00:14:02.000 persuade that

00:14:02.520 well.

00:14:03.720 And if

00:14:05.140 one entity

00:14:06.620 uses AI

00:14:07.420 successfully,

00:14:08.300 what's going

00:14:08.600 to happen?

00:14:09.840 What happens

00:14:10.320 next?

00:14:11.520 There's a

00:14:12.120 candidate who

00:14:12.680 uses AI,

00:14:13.600 uses it better

00:14:14.340 than anybody

00:14:14.760 else, and

00:14:15.120 they win the

00:14:15.600 election.

00:14:16.920 Well, then the

00:14:17.480 other side

00:14:17.900 escalates, and

00:14:19.240 they get AI

00:14:19.840 too.

00:14:20.860 So then we're

00:14:21.580 going to have

00:14:21.860 two AIs

00:14:22.540 battling it

00:14:23.160 out, but

00:14:24.120 here's the

00:14:24.540 thing.

00:14:26.480 Nobody who

00:14:27.320 created those

00:14:28.460 AIs will 1.00

00:14:29.160 know what

00:14:29.560 the AI

00:14:29.960 will do.

00:14:31.500 So it's

00:14:31.960 not like

00:14:32.340 people telling

00:14:33.020 the AI

00:14:33.460 what to

00:14:33.860 do.

00:14:34.220 Hey, go

00:14:35.280 do that

00:14:35.640 thing.

00:14:36.440 They're

00:14:36.720 going to

00:14:36.980 unleash

00:14:37.480 the AI

00:14:38.060 and let

00:14:38.880 the AI

00:14:39.520 figure it

00:14:40.160 out on

00:14:40.680 its own.

00:14:41.720 So the

00:14:42.100 two different

00:14:42.540 AIs could 0.75

00:14:43.200 be comparable

00:14:44.060 AIs, even 0.99

00:14:44.900 identical.

00:14:45.700 They could

00:14:45.960 be identical

00:14:46.600 AIs, but 0.83

00:14:47.800 they might

00:14:48.220 trial and

00:14:48.920 error things

00:14:49.480 differently.

00:14:50.580 So by the

00:14:51.360 time they

00:14:51.700 feel their

00:14:52.180 way through

00:14:52.520 the system

00:14:53.020 to develop

00:14:53.800 on their

00:14:54.180 own, their

00:14:55.180 best persuasion,

00:14:56.820 they might

00:14:57.200 end up in

00:14:57.640 different places.

00:14:58.800 So you

00:14:59.420 would then

00:14:59.720 have a

00:15:00.200 system that

00:15:00.920 depended

00:15:01.360 entirely on

00:15:03.400 which AI

00:15:04.000 did a

00:15:04.400 better job

00:15:04.980 and won't

00:15:06.840 have anything

00:15:07.280 to do with

00:15:07.740 voting anymore.

00:15:09.040 You still

00:15:09.680 have to vote,

00:15:10.800 but your

00:15:11.220 votes would be

00:15:11.820 determined by

00:15:12.440 who had the

00:15:12.860 better AI,

00:15:13.620 and that's

00:15:14.020 it.

00:15:15.040 Now, at the

00:15:15.860 moment, it's

00:15:17.400 not that

00:15:17.940 different than

00:15:18.480 the current

00:15:18.860 system, because

00:15:20.200 I would argue

00:15:20.760 that we

00:15:21.140 don't vote

00:15:21.660 for the

00:15:21.920 best

00:15:22.100 candidate.

00:15:23.220 We vote

00:15:23.920 for the

00:15:24.220 best

00:15:24.540 persuader.

00:15:26.380 So you're

00:15:27.000 voting for

00:15:27.420 somebody who's

00:15:27.880 persuading you,

00:15:29.220 but that's not

00:15:30.200 really the job

00:15:30.900 of a president

00:15:31.540 entirely.

00:15:32.720 I mean, it's

00:15:33.060 part of it.

00:15:34.040 But we already

00:15:35.440 have this

00:15:35.840 artificial way of

00:15:36.940 picking a

00:15:37.380 president, because

00:15:38.620 the president's

00:15:39.380 full range of

00:15:40.820 capabilities are

00:15:41.740 not picked up by

00:15:42.600 how well they

00:15:43.120 campaigned.

00:15:44.160 That's a big

00:15:44.680 part of it.

00:15:45.180 So we already

00:15:47.600 have a system

00:15:48.180 where campaigning

00:15:49.940 is who determines

00:15:52.240 who is president.

00:15:53.640 The quality of

00:15:54.620 the campaign,

00:15:55.980 did that ever

00:15:56.660 make sense?

00:15:58.820 Not really.

00:16:00.660 Not really.

00:16:01.660 That never really

00:16:02.460 made sense.

00:16:04.120 Because it doesn't

00:16:05.040 tell you who's

00:16:05.400 the best president,

00:16:06.180 it just might tell

00:16:07.220 you who had the

00:16:07.700 best campaign

00:16:08.360 staff, which

00:16:09.540 might not even

00:16:10.260 be the permanent

00:16:10.860 staff, and maybe

00:16:11.980 shouldn't be,

00:16:12.600 because campaigning

00:16:13.420 is different from

00:16:14.080 governing.

00:16:15.180 So we already

00:16:16.280 have an irrational

00:16:17.080 system that we've

00:16:18.660 convinced ourselves

00:16:19.520 is rational.

00:16:20.680 If we replace

00:16:21.700 that with another

00:16:22.380 one, where the

00:16:23.740 two AIs battle

00:16:24.800 it out, and we

00:16:25.560 don't know why

00:16:26.080 they're doing it,

00:16:26.740 and don't know

00:16:27.180 who's going to

00:16:27.600 win, and then

00:16:28.040 we just get a

00:16:28.540 result, we're

00:16:29.740 still going to

00:16:30.180 think we voted.

00:16:31.660 We're still going

00:16:32.240 to think our vote

00:16:32.860 made the difference.

00:16:34.080 So it won't

00:16:34.700 make any difference.

00:16:35.780 We'll just go on

00:16:36.860 like it wasn't

00:16:37.480 happening, just

00:16:38.620 like we do now.

00:16:40.660 But yes, I do

00:16:42.380 believe that the

00:16:43.300 human part of

00:16:45.180 elections is

00:16:46.780 largely gone, and

00:16:49.160 it's not coming

00:16:49.760 back.

00:16:50.200 The AIs will 0.88

00:16:51.020 figure out how

00:16:52.460 to persuade us, and

00:16:53.360 that's it.

00:16:53.920 That will be the

00:16:54.360 whole story.

00:16:55.680 It won't even be

00:16:56.320 about the

00:16:56.700 candidate, at

00:16:58.520 least when the

00:16:59.180 candidates are

00:16:59.740 close.

00:17:00.220 I mean, if the

00:17:01.700 candidates are

00:17:02.340 wildly different in

00:17:03.620 quality, that still

00:17:04.960 does matter, of

00:17:05.720 course.

00:17:07.640 All right.

00:17:07.960 how about this?

00:17:13.020 How would you

00:17:13.760 like to see if

00:17:14.520 AI could persuade

00:17:15.560 one person?

00:17:17.180 Wouldn't that be

00:17:17.740 interesting?

00:17:19.520 Put one person in

00:17:21.060 a room with one

00:17:22.000 AI and work on

00:17:25.040 one topic, and

00:17:26.680 we'll say, all

00:17:27.140 right, the topic

00:17:27.720 is whatever.

00:17:29.060 It could be

00:17:29.420 abortion, it 0.85

00:17:30.100 could be guns,

00:17:31.000 you know, something

00:17:31.420 that nobody ever

00:17:32.300 changes their mind

00:17:33.260 about, realistically.

00:17:35.140 It's very rare for

00:17:37.000 somebody to change

00:17:37.800 their mind about,

00:17:38.620 let's say, the

00:17:39.000 Second Amendment.

00:17:40.600 So you put

00:17:41.020 somebody in a room

00:17:41.660 and you unleash

00:17:42.580 the AI, you say,

00:17:44.320 all right, AI, take

00:17:45.680 as long as you

00:17:46.340 want, use all the

00:17:47.200 sources you want,

00:17:48.540 use every form of

00:17:49.640 persuasion you want,

00:17:50.540 have a conversation

00:17:51.360 with this human, see

00:17:52.820 if you can change

00:17:53.480 the human's mind.

00:17:55.320 Do you think the

00:17:55.880 AI could do it?

00:17:58.500 Well, most of the

00:17:59.900 time, not, just

00:18:00.960 because it would be

00:18:01.520 limited by time.

00:18:03.080 You know, you'd

00:18:03.580 have to work on

00:18:04.180 somebody for a long

00:18:04.940 time.

00:18:05.920 But, suppose you

00:18:07.600 put a thousand

00:18:09.540 humans in that

00:18:11.340 situation, and the

00:18:13.180 AI was trying to

00:18:14.140 work on all

00:18:14.800 thousand of them

00:18:15.540 as best it could,

00:18:17.500 do you think it

00:18:18.180 could change a

00:18:18.780 hundred?

00:18:20.500 I think it

00:18:21.300 could.

00:18:22.240 Yeah.

00:18:22.660 It wouldn't

00:18:23.060 change nine

00:18:23.780 hundred, I mean,

00:18:24.920 it couldn't do it

00:18:25.460 right away, even

00:18:26.200 if it did everything

00:18:27.560 right, it probably

00:18:28.220 couldn't.

00:18:29.180 But it could get

00:18:29.840 a hundred, because

00:18:31.160 good persuasion

00:18:31.980 always picks people

00:18:32.960 off, whether it's

00:18:34.560 human or machine,

00:18:35.920 you can always

00:18:36.400 get a sum.

00:18:37.440 And if you can

00:18:38.160 pick off ten

00:18:39.280 percent of the

00:18:39.860 other side, you

00:18:41.580 win every election

00:18:42.360 in our system.

00:18:44.420 So, I'd like to

00:18:45.360 see it tested on an

00:18:46.460 individual or a

00:18:48.260 small group to see

00:18:49.780 if AI can really

00:18:50.880 persuade people,

00:18:51.960 because maybe it

00:18:52.520 can.

00:18:53.360 Maybe it can.

00:18:53.980 All right, I've

00:18:56.820 told you about

00:18:57.260 this, I call it

00:18:58.400 the Scott Alexander

00:18:59.400 effect, named

00:19:00.520 after a blogger

00:19:02.080 who used that

00:19:02.820 name, Scott

00:19:03.400 Alexander, which

00:19:04.200 was not his real

00:19:04.860 name.

00:19:05.900 And he taught

00:19:07.820 me, and then

00:19:08.780 I've taught some

00:19:09.560 of you, the

00:19:10.760 following rule,

00:19:12.520 that if

00:19:13.820 something's in

00:19:14.580 the news, and

00:19:16.020 it's really,

00:19:16.660 really interesting,

00:19:17.660 it's probably

00:19:18.700 fake.

00:19:19.120 You've heard

00:19:21.220 me say that

00:19:21.720 before, right?

00:19:22.720 If it's in the

00:19:23.380 news, and it's

00:19:24.220 really interesting,

00:19:25.220 let's say aliens,

00:19:26.540 it's almost

00:19:27.160 certainly fake.

00:19:28.560 If it's in the

00:19:29.420 news, but it's

00:19:30.020 normal, there's

00:19:31.320 another hurricane.

00:19:32.900 It's probably

00:19:33.600 real, because

00:19:35.040 that's normal.

00:19:36.240 But when you see

00:19:37.180 a story that makes

00:19:37.940 your hair catch on

00:19:38.740 fire, like, oh

00:19:39.880 my God, did that

00:19:40.700 person really say

00:19:41.600 that?

00:19:42.340 Or did that

00:19:42.840 person really do

00:19:43.680 that?

00:19:44.560 Did the president

00:19:45.500 of the United

00:19:46.060 States just call

00:19:47.560 neo-Nazis fine 0.80

00:19:48.920 people?

00:19:50.080 No, he didn't.

00:19:51.700 Of course he

00:19:52.460 didn't.

00:19:53.600 It seems like it.

00:19:54.560 People thought so.

00:19:55.420 They thought they

00:19:55.900 saw it in a video,

00:19:56.620 but it didn't

00:19:56.960 happen in the

00:19:57.460 real world.

00:19:58.660 The video was

00:19:59.740 edited.

00:20:01.380 By the way, that's

00:20:02.220 the same way the

00:20:02.960 RFK Jr. video was

00:20:04.560 edited.

00:20:05.600 It was a Rupar

00:20:06.360 video that makes

00:20:07.780 it look like he

00:20:08.460 wants to execute

00:20:09.980 people who don't

00:20:11.060 believe in climate

00:20:11.740 change.

00:20:13.360 If you saw that

00:20:14.260 video and said,

00:20:14.920 I saw it myself,

00:20:15.660 he said it, that's

00:20:16.860 a Rupar video.

00:20:18.060 Same thing that

00:20:18.760 got Trump a

00:20:20.160 couple times.

00:20:21.740 So don't

00:20:22.340 believe that

00:20:22.700 video.

00:20:27.000 So there's a

00:20:29.660 study that gives

00:20:30.860 some meat to

00:20:31.520 this effect.

00:20:33.460 And it says

00:20:34.140 that false news

00:20:35.020 stories are more

00:20:35.780 commonly retweeted

00:20:36.840 by humans than

00:20:37.540 bots.

00:20:38.820 By a lot.

00:20:40.800 70% more likely

00:20:42.420 to be retweeted

00:20:43.300 than true stories.

00:20:44.240 A fake story is

00:20:47.180 70% more likely

00:20:49.280 to be retweeted.

00:20:51.100 That's not small.

00:20:53.620 That's huge.

00:20:55.100 Now, this is

00:20:55.740 evidence that people

00:20:57.280 prefer fake news.

00:20:58.900 Now, what makes it

00:20:59.840 fake news?

00:21:02.120 Usually, it's

00:21:02.900 something that's too

00:21:03.540 on the nose.

00:21:04.980 That's the stuff

00:21:05.860 that gets retweeted.

00:21:06.800 If tomorrow you

00:21:11.660 found out

00:21:12.320 that, let's

00:21:14.440 say, the

00:21:14.740 Democrats were

00:21:15.720 accusing Trump

00:21:17.020 of starting the

00:21:18.400 forest fires

00:21:19.200 in Canada,

00:21:21.780 you'd say to

00:21:22.600 yourself,

00:21:23.820 okay, that's

00:21:24.760 a little too

00:21:25.460 just blame him

00:21:26.380 for everything.

00:21:27.840 You would pick

00:21:28.660 that up immediately.

00:21:29.620 It's like, no,

00:21:31.160 I don't think so.

00:21:32.500 That would be

00:21:33.140 so absurd.

00:21:34.360 But, if that

00:21:36.220 story ever ran,

00:21:37.800 it would be

00:21:38.380 tweeted like crazy.

00:21:40.260 Because people

00:21:40.960 wouldn't believe it

00:21:41.780 because it just

00:21:42.820 catches their hair

00:21:43.700 on fire.

00:21:44.220 Are you kidding me?

00:21:45.540 He's done so many

00:21:46.520 bad things and now

00:21:47.800 he's setting forest

00:21:48.720 fires in Canada?

00:21:50.540 Oh, my God.

00:21:51.720 Is there anything

00:21:52.580 he won't do?

00:21:53.660 After praising Nazis 0.95

00:21:55.300 and telling us

00:21:56.120 to drink bleach,

00:21:57.300 now he's setting

00:21:58.040 forest fires in Canada?

00:22:00.560 Now, the way you

00:22:01.340 would know that

00:22:01.880 news was fake

00:22:02.860 is that it

00:22:04.640 got you going.

00:22:06.480 Yeah, news like

00:22:07.100 that that just

00:22:07.620 gets you going,

00:22:08.780 it's almost

00:22:09.340 always fake.

00:22:11.040 Almost always

00:22:12.540 fake.

00:22:13.700 How about this

00:22:14.360 story of the

00:22:15.080 FBI?

00:22:17.120 Allegedly,

00:22:18.020 there's a

00:22:18.600 Ukrainian person

00:22:20.920 who alleges

00:22:22.400 to have given

00:22:22.960 a $5 million

00:22:23.840 bribe to

00:22:25.040 Biden

00:22:25.420 for whatever,

00:22:28.140 for policy

00:22:28.800 purposes.

00:22:31.080 Does that

00:22:31.800 sound real?

00:22:32.860 Do you think

00:22:34.720 that there's

00:22:35.160 a real

00:22:36.200 trail of

00:22:37.320 real evidence?

00:22:38.280 I mean,

00:22:38.500 I do believe

00:22:39.080 that the person

00:22:39.700 said it

00:22:40.240 and it was

00:22:40.820 written down.

00:22:41.740 So I believe

00:22:42.220 there's a document.

00:22:43.680 But does that

00:22:44.200 sound real to you?

00:22:46.260 Does somebody

00:22:46.740 give him a

00:22:47.260 $5 million

00:22:47.960 bribe,

00:22:49.520 a Ukrainian?

00:22:51.480 Look at all

00:22:52.060 the people

00:22:52.340 who say yes.

00:22:53.600 Why does it

00:22:54.220 sound real to you?

00:22:55.640 Does it sound

00:22:56.340 real to you

00:22:56.900 because it's

00:22:58.060 right on the

00:22:59.000 nose?

00:22:59.420 and it's

00:23:00.780 so outrageous

00:23:01.500 it makes

00:23:01.880 your hair

00:23:02.280 stand on

00:23:02.940 fire?

00:23:03.800 Is that

00:23:04.120 why you

00:23:04.360 believe it?

00:23:05.520 It's so

00:23:06.320 outrageous

00:23:06.880 and yet

00:23:08.360 so perfectly

00:23:09.900 what you

00:23:10.340 expected.

00:23:13.000 That doesn't

00:23:13.800 set off any

00:23:14.400 alarms at all.

00:23:16.220 That doesn't

00:23:17.020 tell you that

00:23:17.560 it's most

00:23:18.020 likely bullshit.

00:23:20.360 If this

00:23:21.080 were Trump,

00:23:21.680 would you

00:23:21.940 have believed

00:23:22.260 this for a

00:23:22.820 minute?

00:23:24.460 For one

00:23:25.140 minute,

00:23:25.500 would you

00:23:25.760 have believed

00:23:26.120 this if

00:23:26.540 they said

00:23:26.880 it about

00:23:27.200 Trump?

00:23:27.920 No,

00:23:28.280 you wouldn't.

00:23:29.420 You would

00:23:29.920 not believe

00:23:30.500 this.

00:23:31.880 Now,

00:23:33.140 it could

00:23:33.640 be that

00:23:34.940 the reason

00:23:35.320 the DOJ

00:23:36.160 didn't want

00:23:37.340 Comer and

00:23:40.820 Grassley to

00:23:41.660 see it

00:23:42.060 in Congress,

00:23:44.660 maybe the

00:23:45.160 reason they

00:23:45.520 didn't want

00:23:45.860 to see it

00:23:46.220 is exactly

00:23:47.160 the reason

00:23:47.720 you'd think

00:23:48.320 that they

00:23:49.100 don't think

00:23:49.580 it's true.

00:23:51.300 Wouldn't

00:23:51.820 that be the

00:23:52.440 most logical

00:23:53.480 explanation of

00:23:54.420 what's happening

00:23:54.940 here?

00:23:55.180 that the

00:23:56.360 people who

00:23:56.920 looked at

00:23:57.340 it said,

00:23:57.740 it looks

00:23:58.160 like another

00:23:58.620 one of

00:23:58.900 those steel

00:23:59.360 dossier things.

00:24:02.460 It's just

00:24:02.780 another liar. 0.56

00:24:06.280 All right.

00:24:07.120 So,

00:24:07.840 I will grant

00:24:09.020 you that it

00:24:10.100 might be

00:24:10.560 true.

00:24:11.560 Will you

00:24:11.960 allow that?

00:24:13.000 Will you

00:24:13.440 allow that

00:24:14.520 it might be

00:24:14.980 true?

00:24:16.200 It could be

00:24:16.780 true that

00:24:17.120 Biden took

00:24:17.620 a bribe.

00:24:18.500 Maybe.

00:24:19.360 I mean,

00:24:19.640 we've seen

00:24:20.040 things that

00:24:20.680 look pretty

00:24:21.660 sketchy,

00:24:22.440 but we

00:24:23.040 haven't seen

00:24:23.540 them take a

00:24:24.080 direct bribe,

00:24:24.860 have we?

00:24:26.580 If we

00:24:29.140 know that

00:24:29.700 the Biden

00:24:30.340 family set

00:24:31.820 up a

00:24:32.160 structure to

00:24:32.800 hide bribes,

00:24:35.180 right?

00:24:35.660 The entire

00:24:36.320 structure was

00:24:37.660 about hiding

00:24:38.240 bribes,

00:24:39.200 but you

00:24:39.500 think somebody

00:24:39.960 just wrote a

00:24:40.520 check,

00:24:41.400 just gave

00:24:41.880 them a

00:24:42.060 bribe.

00:24:43.520 When they

00:24:44.120 had this

00:24:44.440 whole structure

00:24:45.060 for accepting

00:24:45.960 bribes without 0.99

00:24:46.760 making them

00:24:47.360 look like

00:24:47.760 bribes,

00:24:48.620 allegedly,

00:24:49.500 allegedly they

00:24:50.340 did that.

00:24:50.740 Why would

00:24:52.180 you just

00:24:52.860 take a

00:24:53.220 bribe when

00:24:54.480 you could

00:24:54.800 do it the

00:24:55.760 way that

00:24:56.080 nobody gets

00:24:56.580 caught?

00:24:58.300 I don't

00:24:58.880 think you

00:24:59.220 would.

00:25:00.180 So I'm

00:25:01.000 going to

00:25:01.140 say that

00:25:01.700 the public

00:25:03.040 doesn't have

00:25:04.480 a right to

00:25:05.120 know about

00:25:05.760 big accusations

00:25:06.520 like this,

00:25:07.420 but it doesn't

00:25:08.820 look real to

00:25:09.320 me.

00:25:09.740 I do not

00:25:10.540 think the

00:25:11.000 walls are

00:25:11.400 closing in

00:25:11.900 than Biden.

00:25:12.260 And I

00:25:13.220 think that

00:25:13.800 it's very

00:25:15.980 unlikely to

00:25:16.580 be real.

00:25:17.660 But it

00:25:17.980 could be.

00:25:19.140 I'll give

00:25:19.720 you a 0.57

00:25:20.140 solid 10

00:25:23.800 to 15

00:25:24.500 percent chance

00:25:25.280 it's true.

00:25:26.780 That's pretty

00:25:27.400 big.

00:25:28.960 A 10

00:25:29.840 percent chance

00:25:30.500 a president

00:25:31.260 took a

00:25:31.700 $5 million

00:25:32.160 bribe,

00:25:33.240 that's a

00:25:33.640 really big

00:25:34.080 chance.

00:25:35.140 But 90

00:25:35.940 percent chance

00:25:36.560 it didn't

00:25:36.860 happen at

00:25:37.260 all.

00:25:38.860 That's what

00:25:39.480 I think.

00:25:40.440 All right,

00:25:40.780 I hate to

00:25:41.140 disappoint you

00:25:41.640 in that.

00:25:42.260 But we'll

00:25:43.100 see.

00:25:43.400 Maybe I

00:25:43.920 will be

00:25:44.260 the one

00:25:44.620 embarrassed

00:25:45.160 and disappointed

00:25:45.900 at my

00:25:46.360 bad

00:25:46.840 predicting.

00:25:47.960 It's

00:25:48.160 possible.

00:25:49.380 So believe

00:25:50.120 it or not,

00:25:50.600 there's still

00:25:50.940 question about

00:25:51.540 who blew

00:25:51.920 up that

00:25:52.260 Ukrainian

00:25:52.760 dam or

00:25:53.440 if it

00:25:53.720 failed on

00:25:54.240 its own.

00:25:55.480 An article

00:25:56.120 in The

00:25:56.440 Hill says

00:25:58.180 that the

00:25:59.460 dam was

00:25:59.900 badly

00:26:00.240 mismanaged

00:26:00.940 and at

00:26:02.320 the time

00:26:02.700 it broke

00:26:03.620 it was

00:26:03.920 under poor

00:26:05.320 management

00:26:06.280 by the

00:26:06.680 Russians

00:26:06.980 and that

00:26:08.080 it was

00:26:08.480 at its

00:26:08.880 all-time

00:26:09.340 high.

00:26:10.420 So there

00:26:11.700 was a

00:26:11.980 combination

00:26:12.460 of they

00:26:12.940 knew it

00:26:13.300 was poorly

00:26:13.680 managed.

00:26:14.760 At the

00:26:15.100 same time

00:26:15.520 they knew

00:26:15.820 that the

00:26:16.180 water

00:26:16.460 pressure

00:26:16.880 was the

00:26:17.280 highest

00:26:17.540 it had

00:26:17.780 ever been.

00:26:19.240 And so

00:26:19.560 one theory

00:26:20.100 is it

00:26:20.580 just broke.

00:26:21.440 Yes, it

00:26:24.500 broke exactly

00:26:25.680 before the

00:26:26.500 Ukrainian

00:26:26.980 offensive.

00:26:30.700 Can we

00:26:31.600 all just

00:26:32.000 act like

00:26:32.480 we believe

00:26:32.960 that?

00:26:34.340 Ah, yeah,

00:26:35.620 it broke

00:26:36.280 immediately

00:26:37.440 before the

00:26:39.140 Ukrainian

00:26:39.640 offensive.

00:26:40.880 Well, that's

00:26:41.800 a big

00:26:42.220 coincidence,

00:26:42.740 isn't it?

00:26:44.260 Okay, yeah,

00:26:45.180 that's, sorry.

00:26:46.960 I'm not

00:26:47.680 buying the

00:26:48.240 accidental

00:26:48.820 thing.

00:26:49.420 But then

00:26:50.680 that leaves

00:26:51.100 the question

00:26:51.520 of who

00:26:51.800 did it.

00:26:53.360 And the

00:26:54.700 Hill also

00:26:55.320 thinks that

00:26:56.180 Russia is 0.79

00:26:57.900 likely to

00:26:58.640 have done

00:26:59.000 it to

00:27:00.240 delay

00:27:01.140 Ukraine,

00:27:01.880 who was

00:27:02.160 already

00:27:02.440 getting ready

00:27:03.020 in its

00:27:03.840 counter-offensive

00:27:04.980 was already

00:27:05.600 shaping up.

00:27:08.140 Do you

00:27:08.440 think that

00:27:08.840 Russia would 0.98

00:27:10.220 blow up

00:27:10.680 its own

00:27:11.100 dam,

00:27:11.800 meaning they

00:27:12.360 already

00:27:12.600 controlled

00:27:13.040 that

00:27:13.280 territory,

00:27:14.160 to get

00:27:14.800 a temporary

00:27:15.600 advantage

00:27:16.540 that doesn't

00:27:18.640 even last?

00:27:19.420 No.

00:27:23.540 That doesn't

00:27:24.320 even sound a

00:27:24.900 little bit

00:27:25.320 plausible.

00:27:26.720 And yet the

00:27:27.140 Hill is

00:27:27.500 writing this

00:27:27.960 like, yeah,

00:27:28.540 that's a

00:27:28.840 good idea.

00:27:29.680 Maybe that

00:27:30.100 happened.

00:27:32.700 All right,

00:27:33.340 here's my

00:27:33.820 theory on

00:27:34.420 the dam.

00:27:35.320 And I

00:27:35.620 don't believe

00:27:36.180 you've seen

00:27:36.760 this theory

00:27:37.380 anywhere else.

00:27:39.240 And it

00:27:39.540 goes like

00:27:40.060 this.

00:27:41.840 If you're

00:27:42.600 the Russian

00:27:43.500 military,

00:27:44.760 what do you

00:27:45.340 think would

00:27:45.840 stop the

00:27:46.620 Ukrainians from

00:27:47.600 their

00:27:47.800 counter-offensive?

00:27:49.420 What would

00:27:49.720 it take

00:27:50.060 for them

00:27:50.420 not to

00:27:51.300 attack?

00:27:53.680 Generally

00:27:54.120 speaking,

00:27:55.500 generally

00:27:55.920 speaking,

00:27:56.400 vodka,

00:27:57.180 somebody said,

00:27:58.000 generally

00:27:58.400 speaking,

00:27:59.020 what it

00:27:59.260 would take

00:27:59.620 for the

00:28:00.000 Ukrainian

00:28:00.420 counter-offensive

00:28:01.280 to not

00:28:02.020 happen is

00:28:03.340 that the

00:28:03.800 will of

00:28:04.380 the Ukrainian

00:28:04.900 fighters or

00:28:06.560 the government,

00:28:07.540 they didn't

00:28:07.860 have a strong

00:28:08.380 enough will.

00:28:10.080 They weren't

00:28:10.600 willing to

00:28:11.040 take enough

00:28:11.480 losses.

00:28:12.700 They weren't

00:28:13.040 willing to do

00:28:13.700 whatever it

00:28:14.360 took.

00:28:15.200 Because you're

00:28:15.600 not going to

00:28:15.940 win unless

00:28:16.400 you're willing to

00:28:16.920 do whatever it

00:28:17.560 takes.

00:28:17.880 What's

00:28:19.860 it do to

00:28:20.460 the morale

00:28:21.640 and thinking

00:28:22.340 of the

00:28:22.720 Russians if

00:28:24.660 the Ukrainians

00:28:27.060 blew up

00:28:27.600 their own

00:28:28.160 Kiev dam

00:28:28.860 because the

00:28:30.360 Russians owned 1.00

00:28:31.080 it?

00:28:31.960 Do you know

00:28:32.340 what that would

00:28:32.700 do to me

00:28:33.140 psychologically

00:28:33.740 if I were

00:28:34.360 a Russian?

00:28:36.080 I'd give

00:28:36.840 up.

00:28:38.120 If I saw

00:28:39.020 them blow 0.91

00:28:39.420 up their

00:28:39.760 own

00:28:40.240 freaking

00:28:40.740 critical

00:28:41.900 dam

00:28:42.360 just to

00:28:43.980 get a

00:28:44.300 small

00:28:44.660 advantage

00:28:45.140 in their

00:28:45.500 counter

00:28:45.760 offensive,

00:28:46.500 I'd just

00:28:47.100 fucking

00:28:47.420 give up.

00:28:48.520 Because it

00:28:48.880 tells me

00:28:49.260 they're not

00:28:49.580 going to

00:28:49.800 quit for

00:28:50.420 anything.

00:28:51.960 To me

00:28:52.600 that says

00:28:53.140 we're going

00:28:53.600 to do

00:28:53.800 whatever it

00:28:54.320 takes.

00:28:55.520 You

00:28:55.660 conscripts,

00:28:56.560 you better

00:28:56.840 start running.

00:28:58.320 Because

00:28:58.580 conscripts are

00:28:59.460 not going

00:28:59.860 to do

00:29:00.080 whatever it

00:29:00.540 takes.

00:29:01.460 But the

00:29:01.800 Ukrainians

00:29:02.400 just sent

00:29:02.940 a message

00:29:03.480 that is

00:29:04.320 like a

00:29:06.000 million

00:29:06.420 volts of

00:29:07.780 electricity

00:29:08.360 that just

00:29:09.620 said we

00:29:10.940 will destroy

00:29:11.720 anything

00:29:12.620 for any

00:29:14.500 advantage.

00:29:15.460 There's

00:29:15.740 nothing that's

00:29:16.580 going to

00:29:16.800 stop this

00:29:17.300 from happening.

00:29:18.300 You better

00:29:18.680 get out of

00:29:19.120 the way.

00:29:20.520 That's what

00:29:21.000 I saw.

00:29:21.900 So that's

00:29:22.300 my current

00:29:22.720 theory.

00:29:23.480 My current

00:29:23.920 theory is

00:29:24.380 there's a

00:29:24.720 psychological

00:29:25.080 operation

00:29:26.040 with maybe

00:29:27.100 a small

00:29:28.020 on-the-ground

00:29:29.100 benefit,

00:29:30.120 but psychologically

00:29:30.960 it's

00:29:31.620 devastating.

00:29:33.340 I think

00:29:33.740 that's

00:29:33.980 devastating.

00:29:35.180 Am I

00:29:35.480 wrong?

00:29:36.360 Let me

00:29:37.160 test you.

00:29:37.620 I don't

00:29:37.800 see

00:29:38.220 comments

00:29:38.680 confirming

00:29:39.200 or arguing.

00:29:40.360 Do you

00:29:40.620 think if

00:29:40.980 you were

00:29:41.180 the Russian

00:29:41.600 conscripts

00:29:42.640 and you

00:29:43.600 saw the

00:29:43.960 Ukrainians

00:29:44.560 blow up

00:29:45.040 their own

00:29:45.640 dam,

00:29:47.380 would you

00:29:47.840 run?

00:29:50.280 Because

00:29:50.720 they're not

00:29:51.060 going to

00:29:51.300 quit.

00:29:52.420 They basically

00:29:53.240 said we're

00:29:53.800 not quitting,

00:29:55.020 so if you

00:29:56.020 know, we're

00:29:56.620 both dead.

00:29:57.620 So that's

00:29:57.980 your choice.

00:29:59.020 You die,

00:29:59.680 we die,

00:30:00.200 we all die,

00:30:01.780 or you

00:30:02.280 could run

00:30:02.620 away, but

00:30:03.780 we're not

00:30:04.160 quitting.

00:30:04.680 We're going

00:30:04.980 to blow up

00:30:05.420 our own

00:30:05.820 stuff.

00:30:06.520 We don't

00:30:06.780 even care.

00:30:08.220 So that's

00:30:09.220 what it

00:30:09.480 feels like.

00:30:10.260 I'll just

00:30:10.580 put that

00:30:10.900 hypothesis

00:30:11.500 out there

00:30:11.980 because I

00:30:12.240 haven't

00:30:12.380 seen it.

00:30:13.320 But it

00:30:13.640 looks like a

00:30:14.180 psychological

00:30:14.500 operation by

00:30:15.460 the Ukrainians.

00:30:17.140 All right.

00:30:19.140 There's some

00:30:19.840 TikTok

00:30:20.180 allegations.

00:30:22.260 There's a

00:30:22.800 former employee

00:30:23.640 of ByteDance

00:30:24.320 who says

00:30:24.840 that he

00:30:25.620 personally saw,

00:30:26.680 but there are

00:30:27.060 no documents

00:30:27.720 to prove it,

00:30:28.360 but he says he

00:30:29.200 saw it with his

00:30:29.740 own eyes,

00:30:30.920 that the

00:30:31.500 Beijing-based,

00:30:32.440 that basically

00:30:34.780 China had 0.95

00:30:36.160 full access

00:30:36.820 to TikTok's

00:30:38.760 data,

00:30:39.780 and it

00:30:40.000 used some

00:30:40.440 kind of

00:30:40.760 God-mode

00:30:41.580 password,

00:30:42.640 and they

00:30:43.580 could see

00:30:43.940 where all

00:30:44.320 the pro-Hong

00:30:46.160 Kong protesters

00:30:46.960 were,

00:30:47.940 and what they

00:30:48.420 were up to,

00:30:49.220 and then they

00:30:49.740 could go round

00:30:50.320 them up.

00:30:52.060 Do you believe

00:30:52.840 that?

00:30:53.780 It's based

00:30:54.540 entirely on

00:30:55.460 somebody who

00:30:56.040 doesn't like

00:30:56.640 the Chinese

00:30:57.180 government

00:30:57.780 telling you

00:30:59.120 it happened.

00:30:59.540 And it's

00:31:02.420 two on the

00:31:03.000 nose.

00:31:04.260 Two on the

00:31:04.780 nose.

00:31:05.480 Yeah.

00:31:06.400 I'm going to

00:31:07.080 say, see,

00:31:09.100 here's the

00:31:09.380 problem.

00:31:10.400 Sometimes two

00:31:11.200 on the nose

00:31:12.020 has two

00:31:14.900 meanings.

00:31:15.720 One is two

00:31:16.580 on the nose

00:31:17.180 because somebody

00:31:18.500 made up a

00:31:19.380 fake thing,

00:31:20.360 and so that's

00:31:20.820 why it sounds

00:31:21.240 so perfect.

00:31:22.400 And the

00:31:22.780 other is,

00:31:24.100 didn't you

00:31:24.960 all expect

00:31:25.580 that China 0.93

00:31:26.040 would be

00:31:26.360 looking at

00:31:26.740 the data?

00:31:28.380 It's exactly

00:31:29.420 what you

00:31:29.900 expected to

00:31:30.660 be true.

00:31:31.780 Now, I

00:31:32.280 think two

00:31:32.760 things can

00:31:33.240 be true.

00:31:34.300 I think

00:31:34.760 that this

00:31:35.600 guy could

00:31:36.000 be lying

00:31:36.580 completely,

00:31:37.920 but it's

00:31:38.840 also true

00:31:39.400 that China 0.93

00:31:39.860 looks at

00:31:40.240 the data

00:31:40.560 if they

00:31:40.820 want to.

00:31:42.260 What do

00:31:42.600 you think

00:31:42.760 of that?

00:31:43.600 The most

00:31:44.320 likely

00:31:44.700 explanation

00:31:45.260 is that

00:31:46.720 the guy

00:31:47.080 is lying

00:31:47.680 because it

00:31:48.080 helps his

00:31:48.480 case,

00:31:49.060 or he

00:31:49.340 has some

00:31:49.640 advantage

00:31:50.080 in it,

00:31:50.860 but that

00:31:52.100 they do

00:31:52.400 have access,

00:31:53.620 and that

00:31:53.980 it's a

00:31:54.200 real thing,

00:31:54.660 he just

00:31:54.940 didn't see

00:31:55.320 it.

00:31:59.420 Here's

00:32:04.260 Rasmussen

00:32:05.160 on Democrats

00:32:06.260 and whether

00:32:06.640 they should

00:32:07.000 debate.

00:32:07.540 73% of

00:32:08.680 Democrats

00:32:09.200 think Biden

00:32:10.080 should debate

00:32:10.720 his challengers,

00:32:13.200 meaning RFK

00:32:14.240 Jr.,

00:32:14.740 primarily,

00:32:15.900 and 78%

00:32:17.020 of Republicans,

00:32:17.960 and 72%

00:32:18.960 of voters

00:32:19.300 not affiliated.

00:32:20.360 This is

00:32:20.820 overwhelming.

00:32:22.900 What was

00:32:23.520 the last,

00:32:24.220 when was

00:32:24.800 the last

00:32:25.160 topic that

00:32:26.620 over 70%

00:32:27.840 of every

00:32:28.640 demographic

00:32:29.300 agreed?

00:32:31.220 Over 70%

00:32:32.340 of every

00:32:33.380 demographic.

00:32:36.420 Every

00:32:37.060 demographic,

00:32:37.800 political

00:32:38.220 demographic.

00:32:40.520 Now,

00:32:41.280 how in the

00:32:41.760 world can

00:32:42.420 Biden

00:32:43.520 ignore the

00:32:45.660 will of

00:32:46.200 three-quarters

00:32:46.740 of the

00:32:47.080 people,

00:32:47.600 including

00:32:48.000 his own

00:32:48.440 people?

00:32:50.360 That really

00:32:51.520 says he's

00:32:53.820 done.

00:32:55.540 To me,

00:32:56.280 that says

00:32:56.720 he's done.

00:32:57.840 Because there

00:32:58.480 is no

00:32:58.900 scenario in

00:32:59.700 which you

00:32:59.980 ignore 70%

00:33:01.460 of your

00:33:01.840 own party.

00:33:04.180 Right?

00:33:04.760 I mean,

00:33:05.120 it's obvious

00:33:05.980 he can't

00:33:06.620 do it.

00:33:07.460 If he

00:33:07.800 could do

00:33:08.140 it,

00:33:08.320 he'd do

00:33:08.600 it,

00:33:09.080 I think,

00:33:09.540 at this

00:33:09.800 point.

00:33:10.080 It's obvious

00:33:10.480 he can't

00:33:10.940 do it.

00:33:13.040 So,

00:33:13.620 I'm going

00:33:13.920 to go

00:33:15.720 with my

00:33:16.480 prediction

00:33:17.720 that Biden

00:33:18.520 will drop

00:33:19.800 out before

00:33:20.940 the election.

00:33:23.000 I think

00:33:23.860 before the

00:33:24.440 primary,

00:33:24.880 but definitely

00:33:26.600 before the

00:33:27.220 election itself.

00:33:28.680 There's only a

00:33:29.340 few months

00:33:29.760 there.

00:33:30.480 So,

00:33:30.680 I'm going

00:33:30.840 to say

00:33:31.000 before the

00:33:31.460 primary.

00:33:32.720 I'll keep

00:33:33.240 my prediction

00:33:34.600 too.

00:33:34.980 He'll fall

00:33:35.940 out before

00:33:37.480 the primary

00:33:37.960 and probably

00:33:39.000 through

00:33:39.580 worsening

00:33:40.080 health because

00:33:41.580 that's the

00:33:41.900 only way he

00:33:42.340 can do

00:33:42.640 it.

00:33:44.000 He has to

00:33:44.480 claim

00:33:44.900 worsening

00:33:45.340 health so

00:33:46.660 that everybody

00:33:47.200 understands.

00:33:48.400 Because he's

00:33:49.020 going to be in

00:33:49.500 trouble for

00:33:49.960 taking it as

00:33:50.540 far as he

00:33:51.020 has.

00:33:51.400 If he

00:33:53.080 waits another

00:33:53.820 nine months

00:33:54.700 to drop

00:33:55.140 out,

00:33:55.840 he's going

00:33:56.200 to get

00:33:56.380 all kinds

00:33:56.820 of trouble

00:33:57.260 for putting

00:33:58.740 the chill

00:33:59.220 on all the

00:33:59.700 other people

00:34:00.120 who might

00:34:00.440 have been

00:34:00.620 running.

00:34:02.000 So,

00:34:02.280 he's got to

00:34:03.020 make it look

00:34:03.480 like there

00:34:03.780 was nothing

00:34:04.140 he could

00:34:04.480 do.

00:34:05.000 He was

00:34:06.180 doing his

00:34:06.560 best job,

00:34:07.420 but sometimes

00:34:08.540 nature catches

00:34:10.060 up to you.

00:34:11.200 So,

00:34:11.420 you've got to

00:34:12.200 do what you've

00:34:12.540 got to do.

00:34:13.900 So,

00:34:14.200 it's going

00:34:14.400 to be a

00:34:14.960 health-related

00:34:15.700 problem,

00:34:16.780 probably not

00:34:17.600 dementia,

00:34:18.900 because if he

00:34:19.420 says it's

00:34:19.920 dementia,

00:34:20.560 everybody is

00:34:21.740 going to

00:34:22.000 say,

00:34:22.400 yeah,

00:34:22.660 we saw

00:34:23.100 it.

00:34:24.440 You should

00:34:24.920 have done

00:34:25.200 it sooner.

00:34:26.100 It's going

00:34:26.480 to have to

00:34:26.720 be something

00:34:27.100 like a

00:34:28.900 heart murmur

00:34:29.960 or,

00:34:31.140 I don't

00:34:31.440 know,

00:34:31.860 some physical

00:34:32.880 problem.

00:34:34.660 Yeah.

00:34:38.040 All right.

00:34:39.900 Did you

00:34:40.240 know that,

00:34:41.060 for some

00:34:41.580 reason I

00:34:41.920 didn't know

00:34:42.240 this,

00:34:42.680 do you

00:34:42.880 know that

00:34:43.160 Bud Light

00:34:43.540 is still

00:34:44.580 the top-selling

00:34:45.440 brand of

00:34:46.200 beer in

00:34:46.560 America?

00:34:47.840 You probably

00:34:48.480 knew that,

00:34:48.940 right?

00:34:49.420 Because I'm

00:34:49.760 sure that

00:34:50.060 was in

00:34:50.340 stories.

00:34:51.640 That even

00:34:52.060 still,

00:34:52.660 with its,

00:34:53.220 I don't know,

00:34:54.040 20 or

00:34:54.520 whatever percent

00:34:55.140 drop in

00:34:55.640 sales,

00:34:56.240 it's still

00:34:56.700 the number

00:34:57.060 one brand

00:34:57.580 in America.

00:34:59.060 Did you

00:34:59.380 know that?

00:35:02.540 Yeah,

00:35:02.860 I'm just

00:35:08.780 looking at

00:35:09.200 the suggestions

00:35:10.360 on locals

00:35:11.240 for what

00:35:12.500 kind of

00:35:13.300 health problem

00:35:14.340 Biden might

00:35:15.660 have that

00:35:16.240 isn't

00:35:17.000 cognitive.

00:35:17.480 negative.

00:35:18.580 And somebody

00:35:19.040 suggested he

00:35:19.720 had one

00:35:20.020 of those

00:35:20.400 four-hour

00:35:21.140 erections that

00:35:21.860 doesn't go

00:35:22.280 away.

00:35:24.800 He can't

00:35:25.560 appear in

00:35:25.960 public because

00:35:26.600 his ED

00:35:27.540 meds gave

00:35:28.900 him a

00:35:29.200 permanent

00:35:29.480 erection.

00:35:30.120 He can't

00:35:30.760 stand in

00:35:31.200 public.

00:35:33.900 That would

00:35:34.440 be the

00:35:34.720 best.

00:35:35.940 That would

00:35:36.420 be simulation

00:35:37.180 perfection.

00:35:39.000 All right.

00:35:40.340 I didn't have

00:35:41.080 anything to say

00:35:41.540 about Bud

00:35:41.940 Light.

00:35:42.180 It's just

00:35:42.460 funny.

00:35:42.720 All right.

00:35:43.620 Did you

00:35:43.820 hear about

00:35:44.100 the new

00:35:44.420 head of

00:35:44.820 CNN?

00:35:46.020 So the

00:35:46.820 new head

00:35:47.160 of CNN

00:35:47.560 is temporary

00:35:48.260 and I

00:35:48.900 think there's

00:35:49.320 three people

00:35:50.080 who were

00:35:50.400 involved but

00:35:51.080 one of them

00:35:51.540 is sort of

00:35:51.940 the boss.

00:35:53.180 And the

00:35:54.400 husband of

00:35:55.760 the person

00:35:56.180 who's currently

00:35:56.800 in charge

00:35:58.440 of CNN,

00:36:00.920 her husband

00:36:01.900 was in

00:36:03.140 2021

00:36:03.760 nominated

00:36:05.320 by Biden

00:36:06.200 to be the

00:36:06.660 U.S.

00:36:07.000 ambassador to

00:36:07.660 Israel in 0.84

00:36:08.920 2021.

00:36:09.500 So his

00:36:12.620 wife, the 0.88

00:36:13.420 guy who

00:36:13.800 was nominated

00:36:14.380 to be the

00:36:14.940 ambassador to

00:36:15.620 Israel, his 0.98

00:36:17.480 wife is 1.00

00:36:17.940 running CNN.

00:36:23.300 So I

00:36:26.160 guess he's

00:36:26.800 a Democrat

00:36:27.660 insider is

00:36:28.940 what we're

00:36:29.300 saying.

00:36:30.300 He's a

00:36:30.700 Democrat

00:36:31.040 insider.

00:36:33.940 All right.

00:36:35.700 Ladies and 0.98

00:36:36.780 gentlemen,

00:36:37.140 that is the

00:36:39.900 end of my

00:36:40.280 prepared

00:36:40.620 statements.

00:36:41.860 But I'd

00:36:42.200 like to talk

00:36:42.660 about the

00:36:43.220 whistleblower

00:36:44.480 who says

00:36:45.040 the aliens

00:36:45.600 are here

00:36:46.140 as someone

00:36:49.220 who shall

00:36:50.160 remain nameless

00:36:50.980 because he

00:36:52.800 would like to

00:36:53.320 be anonymous,

00:36:54.820 I believe.

00:36:55.860 Said on

00:36:56.380 Twitter,

00:36:57.880 look at that

00:36:58.600 whistleblower

00:36:59.160 talk and

00:37:00.060 shake his

00:37:00.520 head no

00:37:01.000 when he's

00:37:01.440 telling you

00:37:01.860 things you're

00:37:02.300 supposed to

00:37:02.720 believe.

00:37:04.720 Now,

00:37:05.860 which is

00:37:06.460 very

00:37:06.680 interesting.

00:37:07.780 So I

00:37:08.180 would do

00:37:08.420 my

00:37:08.620 impression

00:37:09.180 of him

00:37:10.420 answering a

00:37:11.000 question.

00:37:11.480 This wasn't

00:37:12.060 a real

00:37:12.340 question,

00:37:13.180 but just

00:37:13.520 my

00:37:13.720 impression.

00:37:14.820 Like,

00:37:15.440 so you're

00:37:16.080 saying the

00:37:16.520 U.S.

00:37:17.640 actually has

00:37:18.560 bodies of

00:37:20.120 the dead

00:37:20.520 aliens.

00:37:21.800 Yeah,

00:37:22.060 we've had

00:37:22.620 them forever.

00:37:23.700 They've had

00:37:24.380 maybe a dozen

00:37:25.380 of them.

00:37:26.260 There's at

00:37:26.720 least a dozen

00:37:27.240 crafts that

00:37:27.900 landed.

00:37:29.020 And he

00:37:29.320 would shake

00:37:29.660 his head no

00:37:30.220 while he was

00:37:30.620 talking.

00:37:31.740 What's that

00:37:32.140 tell you?

00:37:33.680 And apparently

00:37:34.420 he used a lot

00:37:35.280 of adverbs.

00:37:37.580 I'm seeing

00:37:38.020 some people

00:37:38.580 say, I think

00:37:39.580 Joshua Lysak

00:37:40.380 says this,

00:37:41.120 if you use

00:37:41.560 too many

00:37:41.860 adverbs,

00:37:42.900 it's sort

00:37:43.460 of saying

00:37:43.920 that you're

00:37:45.640 lying.

00:37:47.480 Because people

00:37:48.200 who tell the

00:37:48.600 truth just

00:37:49.160 don't need

00:37:49.920 them.

00:37:50.800 Because they're

00:37:51.400 just describing

00:37:52.100 what they

00:37:52.460 say.

00:37:53.000 The adverbs

00:37:53.720 are telling

00:37:54.400 you that

00:37:54.740 you're trying

00:37:55.080 to sell

00:37:55.520 it.

00:37:56.860 The adverbs

00:37:57.760 are a tell

00:37:59.040 that you know

00:38:00.200 your story is

00:38:00.880 not working.

00:38:01.980 So you're

00:38:02.200 adding a few

00:38:02.720 adverbs to

00:38:03.600 give it a

00:38:04.540 little boost.

00:38:05.560 But people

00:38:06.060 just telling

00:38:06.920 the story,

00:38:08.460 just plain

00:38:09.020 out telling

00:38:09.460 the story,

00:38:10.060 they leave

00:38:10.560 out the

00:38:10.840 adverbs.

00:38:11.840 Because the

00:38:12.440 story is the

00:38:13.000 story.

00:38:13.580 You don't

00:38:13.860 need them.

00:38:15.220 So I'm

00:38:15.740 not sure

00:38:16.100 that works

00:38:18.020 every time

00:38:18.600 for detecting

00:38:19.400 a lie,

00:38:19.880 but I like

00:38:20.480 it.

00:38:22.380 So,

00:38:23.480 all right,

00:38:23.780 let me ask

00:38:24.120 you this.

00:38:24.940 If it's

00:38:25.620 fake,

00:38:27.420 and if the

00:38:27.920 whistleblower is

00:38:28.660 not telling

00:38:29.160 us the truth,

00:38:30.040 why would

00:38:30.520 he do it?

00:38:32.200 What do

00:38:32.780 you think

00:38:32.980 would be the

00:38:33.580 potential

00:38:34.060 motivation,

00:38:35.000 allegedly,

00:38:36.380 for someone

00:38:37.040 to tell

00:38:37.480 an untruth

00:38:38.280 with that

00:38:38.860 much detail?

00:38:41.120 For attention,

00:38:42.260 for money,

00:38:42.820 for sex,

00:38:43.440 to sell

00:38:43.800 a book?

00:38:45.400 All good

00:38:45.860 reasons.

00:38:46.840 All good

00:38:47.180 reasons.

00:38:47.640 Can you

00:38:47.880 think of

00:38:48.160 any other

00:38:48.520 reason?

00:38:48.780 how much

00:38:54.640 are you going

00:38:56.000 to want our

00:38:56.480 military to

00:38:57.200 be funded

00:38:57.700 if there

00:38:58.980 are space

00:38:59.520 aliens?

00:39:01.240 A little

00:39:01.860 bit more,

00:39:02.400 right?

00:39:03.260 You're like,

00:39:03.880 uh,

00:39:05.000 are you

00:39:05.420 telling me we

00:39:05.980 might be

00:39:06.340 fighting the

00:39:06.820 aliens?

00:39:08.180 We better

00:39:09.180 have some

00:39:09.520 good guns,

00:39:10.580 but apparently

00:39:11.120 we can shoot

00:39:11.760 them down or

00:39:12.400 they crash a

00:39:13.120 lot because

00:39:13.480 there are 12

00:39:13.920 alien crafts.

00:39:18.200 Now,

00:39:19.040 come on.

00:39:20.980 May I just

00:39:21.780 give you a

00:39:22.300 really on

00:39:23.040 this?

00:39:23.860 All right,

00:39:24.080 let's do a

00:39:24.580 really test on

00:39:25.460 this.

00:39:26.460 The U.S.

00:39:27.300 government

00:39:27.640 has 12

00:39:29.300 alien crafts

00:39:30.460 that they've

00:39:31.620 somehow obtained

00:39:33.100 without any

00:39:33.980 citizens getting 0.85

00:39:35.000 any video of

00:39:35.820 it happening.

00:39:37.960 Some of them

00:39:38.760 have dead

00:39:39.200 aliens in it.

00:39:39.980 nobody's

00:39:41.560 talked about

00:39:42.160 it until

00:39:42.560 this guy.

00:39:44.920 Dead

00:39:45.400 aliens.

00:39:47.860 And there's

00:39:51.200 nobody that

00:39:51.800 he talked

00:39:52.220 to that

00:39:53.060 allegedly told

00:39:54.120 him about

00:39:54.540 this information

00:39:55.300 who would be

00:39:56.260 willing to

00:39:56.760 say it in

00:39:58.240 writing or

00:39:59.140 to give an

00:40:00.340 interview.

00:40:01.500 There's not

00:40:02.180 anybody who

00:40:02.760 would be

00:40:02.960 willing to

00:40:03.460 give an

00:40:03.740 interview,

00:40:04.320 let's say,

00:40:04.700 with their

00:40:05.020 name disguised,

00:40:06.860 to say,

00:40:07.420 yes, I'm

00:40:07.920 the one who

00:40:08.340 told them

00:40:08.720 about these

00:40:09.220 alien crafts

00:40:09.960 and I saw

00:40:11.200 them personally.

00:40:12.340 Nobody.

00:40:12.920 Really?

00:40:13.720 Really, you

00:40:14.180 can't find

00:40:14.500 anybody else.

00:40:15.280 Just this

00:40:15.620 one guy.

00:40:16.640 Just this

00:40:17.080 one guy.

00:40:18.400 And have

00:40:18.740 you noticed

00:40:19.080 that the

00:40:19.420 government

00:40:19.760 hasn't tried

00:40:20.360 to kill

00:40:20.720 him yet?

00:40:22.860 Let me

00:40:23.620 say this

00:40:24.060 with some

00:40:24.460 confidence.

00:40:25.920 If we

00:40:26.580 really had

00:40:27.160 alien crafts

00:40:27.960 and he

00:40:28.420 was really

00:40:28.880 giving away

00:40:29.460 the biggest

00:40:29.960 secrets the

00:40:31.020 United States

00:40:31.760 has ever

00:40:32.460 had,

00:40:33.600 they would

00:40:34.220 have killed

00:40:34.560 him.

00:40:35.760 He'd be

00:40:36.260 dead already.

00:40:38.240 They're not

00:40:38.680 going to let

00:40:38.960 this guy go

00:40:39.460 on every

00:40:39.840 TV show

00:40:40.680 telling all

00:40:42.040 the secrets

00:40:42.560 of the

00:40:42.840 United States.

00:40:44.220 That's not

00:40:44.640 going to

00:40:44.860 happen.

00:40:45.820 They would

00:40:46.100 stop that

00:40:46.600 shit right

00:40:47.080 away.

00:40:47.900 That's how

00:40:48.300 you know

00:40:48.660 it's true

00:40:49.100 because nobody's

00:40:50.080 stopping him

00:40:50.540 from talking.

00:40:51.620 Has anybody

00:40:52.180 sued him?

00:40:53.020 Has the

00:40:53.560 government

00:40:53.840 threatened him?

00:40:55.240 Have they

00:40:55.540 brought him

00:40:55.920 in to say,

00:40:56.700 oh, you

00:40:57.020 better stop

00:40:57.580 it?

00:40:58.440 They have

00:40:58.820 not.

00:41:00.180 I know

00:41:00.720 Bob Lazar

00:41:01.160 had a similar

00:41:01.840 story, but

00:41:02.500 this sounds

00:41:03.220 like just

00:41:03.580 somebody copying

00:41:04.240 Bob Lazar,

00:41:05.740 actually.

00:41:06.100 it's a

00:41:07.660 Bob Lazar

00:41:08.280 copycat, it

00:41:09.140 looks like.

00:41:11.960 So,

00:41:13.200 Bob Lazar

00:41:14.740 found element

00:41:15.580 151 before

00:41:16.700 science found

00:41:17.540 it.

00:41:19.200 Really?

00:41:22.320 Really, did

00:41:23.240 he?

00:41:24.200 Really?

00:41:26.820 I don't know

00:41:27.580 what that means,

00:41:28.320 but I don't

00:41:28.600 think it's

00:41:28.900 true.

00:41:29.060 All right.

00:41:33.420 Yeah, so

00:41:34.920 one possibility

00:41:36.220 is that he's

00:41:38.220 just a rogue

00:41:40.040 attention seeker.

00:41:42.660 Don't know.

00:41:43.840 The other

00:41:44.380 possibility is

00:41:45.240 that he's

00:41:45.580 working for

00:41:46.140 our government

00:41:46.720 and he wants

00:41:48.940 you to hear

00:41:49.460 this.

00:41:50.440 Why would

00:41:50.780 our government

00:41:51.320 want you to

00:41:52.160 hear that we

00:41:52.680 have aliens

00:41:53.260 if they

00:41:54.020 didn't?

00:41:54.900 Why would

00:41:55.240 they want

00:41:55.560 you to hear

00:41:56.000 that?

00:41:58.240 All right,

00:41:58.580 well, here's

00:41:59.140 one reason.

00:42:01.180 They might

00:42:01.720 have to get

00:42:02.460 you used

00:42:03.600 to it.

00:42:06.020 They might

00:42:06.720 have to get

00:42:07.260 you used

00:42:07.740 to it.

00:42:09.340 The other

00:42:10.000 possibility is

00:42:10.880 that Russia 0.72

00:42:11.360 and China

00:42:11.940 don't want

00:42:13.520 to have to

00:42:13.880 go to war 0.60

00:42:14.300 with us

00:42:14.700 if we have

00:42:15.200 alien technology.

00:42:17.620 So we

00:42:18.260 might be

00:42:18.640 trying to

00:42:19.040 scare China 0.99

00:42:19.780 and Russia

00:42:20.220 because you

00:42:20.880 know who

00:42:21.200 believes any

00:42:22.040 bullshit?

00:42:23.460 Chinese

00:42:23.900 and Russia

00:42:24.660 people.

00:42:25.680 They'll

00:42:26.140 believe any

00:42:26.560 bullshit,

00:42:27.260 just like us.

00:42:28.200 I mean,

00:42:28.720 they're not

00:42:28.980 that different.

00:42:30.040 But if you

00:42:30.980 can get enough

00:42:31.580 Russians in 0.94

00:42:32.360 the Russian

00:42:33.040 military to

00:42:34.300 believe that

00:42:34.780 we have some

00:42:35.280 UFOs and

00:42:36.500 we're back

00:42:39.160 engineering their

00:42:39.960 technology so

00:42:40.780 that we'll

00:42:41.100 have it,

00:42:42.400 or you can

00:42:42.940 convince the

00:42:44.720 Chinese,

00:42:46.620 that actually

00:42:47.780 might change

00:42:48.480 their plans.

00:42:50.500 So just

00:42:50.920 when China

00:42:51.480 is maybe

00:42:52.960 eagerly looking

00:42:53.880 at Taiwan,

00:42:55.180 suddenly there's

00:42:56.000 a story about

00:42:56.640 how the

00:42:56.920 United States

00:42:57.560 has secret

00:42:58.120 alien weapons.

00:43:00.320 Wouldn't

00:43:00.700 those secret

00:43:01.340 alien weapons

00:43:02.140 come in

00:43:02.540 handy if

00:43:03.980 we got into

00:43:04.500 a war with

00:43:04.940 China over 0.98

00:43:05.440 Taiwan?

00:43:06.000 They'd be

00:43:06.260 really handy,

00:43:06.860 wouldn't they?

00:43:07.800 And what

00:43:08.220 if Russia

00:43:09.340 decided to

00:43:10.020 use some

00:43:10.480 nukes in

00:43:11.300 Ukraine?

00:43:12.560 Which,

00:43:13.440 you know,

00:43:13.720 if they're

00:43:14.360 losing,

00:43:15.140 maybe they

00:43:15.520 would.

00:43:17.640 Huh,

00:43:18.260 would you

00:43:18.800 use nukes

00:43:19.540 against a

00:43:19.980 country who

00:43:20.420 had alien

00:43:21.300 UFO technology?

00:43:23.480 Well,

00:43:24.140 at your

00:43:24.500 peril.

00:43:26.120 I don't

00:43:26.380 know,

00:43:26.760 I think

00:43:27.040 they're just

00:43:27.440 throwing it

00:43:28.020 in there to

00:43:28.700 sow some

00:43:29.920 doubt with

00:43:31.200 our potential

00:43:31.760 competitors.

00:43:33.200 To me,

00:43:33.900 it looks more

00:43:34.740 likely a

00:43:35.600 government

00:43:36.020 operation than

00:43:37.620 a lone

00:43:38.260 person making

00:43:39.020 an allegation.

00:43:40.960 What do you

00:43:41.540 think?

00:43:42.460 Does he look

00:43:43.040 like he's

00:43:43.440 working alone

00:43:44.080 to you?

00:43:45.880 Or does it

00:43:46.420 look like it's

00:43:46.940 part of a

00:43:47.320 disinformation

00:43:47.820 plan?

00:43:50.340 Too dumb

00:43:51.060 for an

00:43:51.380 op?

00:43:52.920 Is it?

00:43:55.360 I don't

00:43:55.900 know.

00:43:57.340 It may be

00:43:58.120 so dumb

00:43:58.700 and smart.

00:44:01.540 Because they

00:44:02.220 know people

00:44:02.660 are going to

00:44:03.040 believe it,

00:44:03.600 right?

00:44:05.600 Clearly.

00:44:06.660 Now,

00:44:07.880 here's the

00:44:08.660 worst,

00:44:10.320 meaning most

00:44:11.280 disturbing,

00:44:12.320 hypothesis.

00:44:15.660 Here's the

00:44:16.200 most disturbing

00:44:17.100 hypothesis of

00:44:18.180 what this

00:44:18.560 could be

00:44:18.880 about.

00:44:19.260 You ready?

00:44:20.140 Nothing will

00:44:20.720 disturb you

00:44:21.360 more than

00:44:21.700 this.

00:44:23.160 It's a

00:44:23.760 test.

00:44:25.420 They're

00:44:25.860 testing what

00:44:26.440 they can get

00:44:26.920 away with.

00:44:28.040 If they can

00:44:28.820 make the

00:44:29.220 public believe

00:44:29.800 they have

00:44:30.120 12 UFOs

00:44:31.080 with dead

00:44:31.420 aliens in

00:44:31.940 them,

00:44:33.360 they can

00:44:34.080 make you

00:44:34.560 believe

00:44:35.100 anything.

00:44:38.440 And they

00:44:39.020 might think

00:44:39.560 they're just

00:44:40.560 testing.

00:44:41.620 Let's see if

00:44:42.280 we can get

00:44:42.640 away with

00:44:42.960 this.

00:44:43.580 Because if

00:44:43.980 we get

00:44:44.260 away with

00:44:44.620 this,

00:44:44.980 we can

00:44:45.400 get away

00:44:45.860 with

00:44:46.200 anything.

00:44:48.660 And then

00:44:49.080 maybe the

00:44:49.560 anything is

00:44:50.180 yet to

00:44:50.480 come.

00:44:53.600 Phamas says

00:44:54.300 you are

00:44:54.640 out of

00:44:54.980 touch on

00:44:55.420 this one.

00:44:56.460 Are you

00:44:56.820 in touch?

00:44:57.740 Are you

00:44:58.920 in contact

00:44:59.840 with the

00:45:00.240 aliens?

00:45:01.180 What would

00:45:01.540 it mean to

00:45:01.940 be in

00:45:02.420 touch in

00:45:03.140 this concept?

00:45:04.540 Do you

00:45:04.880 think I

00:45:05.200 haven't looked

00:45:05.680 at the

00:45:06.220 debunking and

00:45:07.560 also the

00:45:08.000 claims on

00:45:08.720 YouTube?

00:45:10.020 Do you

00:45:10.280 think I

00:45:10.560 haven't looked

00:45:11.200 into every

00:45:11.820 UFO thing

00:45:13.100 that there

00:45:13.440 ever was?

00:45:14.140 Because they're

00:45:14.520 all interesting?

00:45:15.820 What do you

00:45:16.380 think I'm

00:45:16.720 out of touch

00:45:17.440 with that

00:45:18.220 you're in

00:45:18.720 touch with?

00:45:19.460 How are

00:45:19.880 you plugged

00:45:20.400 into this

00:45:20.980 UFO situation?

00:45:23.020 Tell me

00:45:23.420 more about

00:45:23.920 your connection

00:45:24.580 to the

00:45:24.980 UFO world

00:45:25.980 and how

00:45:26.800 I could

00:45:27.720 get one.

00:45:32.980 All right.

00:45:34.680 I know

00:45:35.420 you've seen

00:45:36.020 the aliens

00:45:36.540 yourself.

00:45:39.720 Read a

00:45:40.340 good book.

00:45:41.680 See,

00:45:41.980 that was my

00:45:42.400 problem.

00:45:42.880 I haven't

00:45:43.260 read enough

00:45:43.780 books.

00:45:44.320 on YouTube

00:45:47.000 they're

00:45:47.260 telling me

00:45:47.700 if I'd

00:45:48.500 read some

00:45:48.960 books,

00:45:49.840 boy would

00:45:50.800 I be in

00:45:51.260 better shape

00:45:51.800 now.

00:45:52.420 Because you

00:45:52.820 know what

00:45:53.080 books are?

00:45:54.460 Books are

00:45:55.040 always accurate.

00:45:56.940 Tough on

00:45:57.340 them.

00:45:58.380 A lot of

00:45:58.740 accuracy in

00:45:59.380 those books.

00:46:03.540 All right.

00:46:05.900 Would you

00:46:06.500 have sex 0.77

00:46:07.040 with a

00:46:07.420 sexy alien? 0.72

00:46:10.260 Are you

00:46:10.880 talking Star

00:46:12.060 Trek quality

00:46:13.060 alien or

00:46:13.880 Star Wars?

00:46:15.920 Star Trek

00:46:16.880 alien?

00:46:17.420 Yes.

00:46:18.640 Star Wars

00:46:19.520 alien?

00:46:21.340 I'd have to

00:46:22.000 see this

00:46:22.400 now situation.

00:46:23.580 Make my

00:46:24.240 judgment

00:46:24.560 individually.

00:46:26.260 But

00:46:26.500 possibly.

00:46:28.180 Possibly.

00:46:30.220 Since I

00:46:31.000 don't have

00:46:31.320 any birthday

00:46:31.820 sex lined 0.90

00:46:32.540 up today

00:46:34.300 probably,

00:46:34.880 I'd probably

00:46:35.860 smash an 0.99

00:46:36.360 alien.

00:46:36.820 Yeah.

00:46:40.360 All right.

00:46:43.880 you think

00:46:47.420 they're

00:46:47.620 humans?

00:46:49.420 All right.

00:46:50.600 Ladies and 0.98

00:46:51.300 gentlemen,

00:46:51.680 that is all

00:46:52.060 I have to

00:46:52.320 talk about.

00:46:57.520 Two hanging

00:46:58.320 in trunk.

00:46:58.760 Yeah,

00:46:59.020 okay.

00:47:01.420 Oh,

00:47:01.900 yeah.

00:47:02.340 Are the

00:47:02.800 aliens

00:47:03.200 illegal?

00:47:04.520 They might

00:47:05.020 be illegal

00:47:05.540 aliens.

00:47:06.000 All right,

00:47:07.860 here's a

00:47:08.160 question for

00:47:08.720 you.

00:47:08.900 Here's a

00:47:10.940 question that

00:47:11.400 nobody's ever

00:47:11.960 asked.

00:47:13.020 Would it be

00:47:13.420 legal to

00:47:14.140 murder,

00:47:15.200 well,

00:47:15.460 it wouldn't

00:47:15.640 be murder, 0.69

00:47:16.560 would it be

00:47:17.040 legal to

00:47:17.540 kill an 0.98

00:47:18.020 alien in

00:47:18.740 your backyard?

00:47:19.400 If a real

00:47:22.320 alien landed,

00:47:23.520 could you

00:47:23.840 take your

00:47:24.220 gun out

00:47:24.600 and just

00:47:24.860 kill it?

00:47:26.960 I believe

00:47:27.520 the answer

00:47:27.880 is yes,

00:47:28.700 right?

00:47:29.440 Even if

00:47:29.980 you're not

00:47:30.340 threatened.

00:47:32.420 Because I'm

00:47:32.980 pretty sure

00:47:33.340 there's no

00:47:33.780 law that

00:47:35.740 covers aliens.

00:47:37.920 I don't

00:47:38.400 think it

00:47:38.680 has to be

00:47:39.000 in self-defense,

00:47:39.780 does it?

00:47:40.560 If you

00:47:40.940 just saw

00:47:41.280 one,

00:47:41.480 you could

00:47:41.700 just kill

00:47:42.100 them because

00:47:42.420 you wanted

00:47:42.680 a trophy.

00:47:46.720 Well,

00:47:47.180 I think

00:47:47.520 we should,

00:47:48.020 you know

00:47:49.840 what would

00:47:50.160 be a good

00:47:50.820 signal that

00:47:52.180 aliens are

00:47:52.960 really here?

00:47:55.060 Would be

00:47:55.780 if we

00:47:56.120 started

00:47:56.540 considering

00:47:57.220 legislation

00:47:58.100 about them.

00:48:00.340 That would

00:48:01.020 be a good

00:48:01.360 sign.

00:48:01.980 Because you

00:48:02.320 imagine that

00:48:02.900 maybe somebody

00:48:03.480 in Congress

00:48:04.020 would be

00:48:04.420 aware of

00:48:05.300 the secrets.

00:48:07.240 Suppose

00:48:07.720 they started

00:48:08.380 introducing

00:48:08.960 legislation

00:48:09.680 that if

00:48:11.180 aliens

00:48:11.680 arrive,

00:48:13.080 there are

00:48:13.800 limits to

00:48:14.320 how you

00:48:14.600 can treat

00:48:15.020 them.

00:48:17.080 If you

00:48:17.720 see some

00:48:18.220 legislation,

00:48:19.760 it means

00:48:20.140 the government

00:48:20.640 actually

00:48:21.180 believes

00:48:21.620 there's

00:48:21.900 aliens.

00:48:23.080 If you

00:48:23.700 don't see

00:48:24.120 any

00:48:24.340 legislation,

00:48:25.460 I don't

00:48:25.760 think they

00:48:26.140 believe there

00:48:27.360 is any

00:48:27.660 aliens.

00:48:31.080 You

00:48:31.600 couldn't

00:48:31.920 kill it

00:48:32.280 if it

00:48:32.520 speaks

00:48:32.780 English

00:48:33.160 to you.

00:48:34.540 Yeah.

00:48:34.700 You

00:48:41.780 enjoy my

00:48:42.340 bad

00:48:42.640 takes?

00:48:43.660 I think

00:48:44.160 my

00:48:44.360 takes

00:48:44.640 are the

00:48:44.940 best

00:48:45.220 takes

00:48:45.560 ever.

00:48:46.520 Oh,

00:48:46.680 is it

00:48:46.880 Kanye's

00:48:47.380 birthday

00:48:47.640 today?

00:48:48.880 I think

00:48:49.180 Ye has

00:48:49.600 the same

00:48:49.920 birthday,

00:48:50.320 right?

00:48:52.620 All

00:48:53.140 right.

00:48:54.580 Well,

00:48:56.100 it is

00:48:57.480 my birthday

00:48:58.020 and I

00:48:59.080 guess I'll

00:48:59.400 have to

00:49:00.040 figure out

00:49:02.100 exactly what

00:49:03.000 to do

00:49:03.240 about it.

00:49:08.580 I'm the

00:49:09.160 Jim

00:49:09.420 Kramer of

00:49:10.000 life

00:49:10.220 predictions.

00:49:12.080 How many

00:49:13.080 of you

00:49:13.280 think that

00:49:13.680 I make

00:49:13.960 bad

00:49:14.240 predictions?

00:49:16.340 I know

00:49:16.940 what locals

00:49:17.420 will say,

00:49:18.320 but let me

00:49:18.680 ask you on

00:49:19.260 YouTube.

00:49:20.320 How many

00:49:20.760 of you

00:49:21.120 have watched

00:49:21.680 my predictions

00:49:22.260 for a number

00:49:22.780 of years

00:49:23.220 and believe

00:49:24.060 I'm bad

00:49:24.680 at predicting?

00:49:26.380 Does anybody

00:49:26.980 think I'm

00:49:27.380 bad at

00:49:27.800 predicting?

00:49:28.100 You got

00:49:31.560 real quiet

00:49:32.060 there,

00:49:32.340 didn't

00:49:32.500 you?

00:49:36.340 The only

00:49:37.040 person who

00:49:37.500 says yes

00:49:38.000 can't spell

00:49:38.720 prediction,

00:49:39.440 so that's

00:49:39.780 a good

00:49:40.000 sign.

00:49:40.980 Predition.

00:49:46.320 I'm like

00:49:46.760 the opposite

00:49:47.260 of Kramer.

00:49:48.000 That's

00:49:48.260 right.

00:49:51.780 Yep,

00:49:52.360 25%

00:49:53.180 think I'm

00:49:53.840 bad at

00:49:54.220 it.

00:49:54.420 And you're

00:49:58.180 going to

00:49:58.240 have to

00:49:58.560 explain why

00:49:59.380 these other

00:49:59.800 people think

00:50:00.260 I'm good

00:50:00.620 at it.

00:50:02.140 All right,

00:50:02.680 YouTube,

00:50:03.260 thanks for

00:50:03.640 joining.

00:50:04.540 I will

00:50:04.860 talk to

00:50:05.260 you tomorrow.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - June 08, 2023

Episode 2133 Scott Adams： Trump Indictment Coming, Biden Briber, Aliens Landing, Pence's Bad Timing

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