Episode 2138 Scott Adams: Trump Arraigned, Burisma Biden Recordings, Hypnosis Class Lessons Learned
Episode Stats
Words per Minute
150.73358
Summary
Today's episode features: - Elon Musk's thoughts on working remotely, Warren Buffett's advice on investing in American companies, and why you should put your money in the United States. - Scott Adams' take on inflation.
Transcript
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Good morning, everybody, and welcome and congratulations to making it to the best show in the history
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It's called Coffee with Scott Adams, and it's the best thing ever.
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And if you'd like to take your experience up to levels that no one's ever seen before,
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all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a gel, a canteen, a jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind.
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Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee.
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The dopamine of the day thing makes everything better.
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It's called the simultaneous sip, and it happens now.
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Well, I don't know if you noticed, but the other day, Elon Musk tweeted that he was looking for a vice president of witchcraft and propaganda.
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So I replied to it, and I said, I need to know if there's a commute, because I feel like I'm perfect.
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When you think witchcraft and propaganda, what image pops into your mind first?
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It's me, right? It's me. Witchcraft and propaganda. I'm all about it.
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And I think I'd be perfect for the job, except I don't want to commute.
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Does anybody know if Elon Musk minds if I work remotely?
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Well, luckily for me, I know he does mind, but that's the first thing I'll change.
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If you were applying for the job of vice president of witchcraft and propaganda, and the first thing that came up is you can't work remotely,
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if I couldn't change his mind on working remotely, what kind of vice president of witchcraft and propaganda would I be?
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And then after I changed his mind on that, he'd say, my God, I never thought I'd change my mind on that.
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You must be the best vice president of witchcraft and propaganda ever.
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And then I would ask for a raise, because I would feel like I was already being put upon.
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Well, Amazon is rumored, I'm not sure how credible this is, rumored to be thinking about offering free phone service with their Prime setup.
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Do you think Amazon is going to offer free phone service?
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But I do like the fact that they might be looking to bundle up anything that looks like a generic service.
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And phone service is very rapidly becoming generic.
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So maybe that does make sense in the long, long run.
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The inflation rate is coming down a little bit.
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Experts thought it would be 4.1, but it's all the way down to 4, which isn't really terrible.
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All that really matters when you're at 4, what's the only thing that matters when your inflation is at 4?
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If it continues going even slowly in the correct direction of lower inflation, we're fine.
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I don't understand the math of how that's even possible.
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But if it keeps coming down, we're probably fine.
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And I thought that would be one of our biggest problems.
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But it looks like Europe's having a little more trouble.
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But once again, Warren Buffett's sage advice is looking like sage advice.
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I don't remember how many years ago it was the first time I heard Warren Buffett say,
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Well, I'm paraphrasing, but the idea is, you know, should you put your money in, you know,
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some basket of foreign countries or a basket of American companies?
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If you just said American companies from day one, and you'd never put your money anywhere else,
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You know, it's pretty much that simple at this point.
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So once again, it looks like the American economic experiment, if you will, is the winning experiment.
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Because you can imagine that all the levers of government, you know, might want Biden to get re-elected.
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So if there's anything that can be done to make the numbers look like they're going down,
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There's a lot of good news breaking out all over the place.
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Because, you know, the news doesn't cover the good news as much.
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When was the last time you worried about the supply chain?
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I have to tell you that our supply chain problems from the beginning of the pandemic
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that was the one thing I worried about the most.
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But also thought we'd have a really good chance of handling it.
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It looks like the collective wisdom and work of the human beings have solved it.
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I've got one shampoo I can't buy anymore, but I don't know if that's why.
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I guess there's some meds that are still hard to get.
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But they seem to be somewhat specific problems, not a big supply chain problem.
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In my opinion, climate change does not look like the end of the world.
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It looks like new batteries are being invented every day, new battery technologies.
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So it looks like we will be able to store as much green energy as we can create.
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It always looked like maybe we can create energy, but we can't use it at night.
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You know, or we can't use it when the wind isn't blowing.
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The other thing that was a complete disaster, still is, is education.
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But I've never seen so much activity toward school choice.
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And then you add on top of school choice the AI possibilities,
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the possibility that a poor kid could get something like an identical education to a rich kid?
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I mean, I don't think you can get all the way there.
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So I would say that almost everything, including the stock market,
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almost everything is trending in the right direction.
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I would also say that the, let's say, the abuses of government may have peaked,
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meaning that the American public and its, let's say,
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its visibility into what the problems are is very high.
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And I think we're on the way for some kind of correction.
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Now, that correction might look like a Republican victory in the next election.
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I've never, I don't know if I've ever said this directly,
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the presidency does trade hands between the Democrats and Republicans.
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Worst case scenario, it just stayed in Democrat hands or it stayed in Republican hands.
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Right now, I would say, if you were going to say from just a competitive standpoint,
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we have a really good competitive setup because the Democrats are really offering something different
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You know, it doesn't look like the unit party to me.
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And I would also like to compliment a number of the candidates.
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My impression of the optimism for America is very high right now.
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And a lot of that has to do with the fact that a number of quality candidates have emerged.
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But there are at least three Republican candidates that I would say,
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And there's at least one Democrat, RFK Jr., who, you know, again, I'm not saying I agree with any of them on policy.
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I'm just saying that they would be serious, credible, patriotic, smart Americans who are what you want in the job.
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To me, the only thing that could go terribly wrong would be re-electing Biden.
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To me, that feels like the only thing we could get wrong.
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It feels like everything's lining up to make that not happen.
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There are things that I learned around 40 years ago when I learned to be a hypnotist.
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And some of the things I learned then, I tried to convince people were true.
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It's something that hypnotists know that regular people are not exposed to.
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And for 40 years, I've been saying, you just wait.
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And this is when it's happening, 40 years later.
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40 years ago, I learned that human intelligence was nothing but pattern recognition.
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It was mechanical, and it wasn't, that's all it was.
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There was nothing to it but a mechanical process.
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If you believe there's something magic happening in the other mind, what would you do with it?
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But you can work with the idea that the brain is a machine, and there are a certain set of inputs.
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You put in those inputs just like a user interface for a computer.
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So we've known for a long time that the brain was not magic.
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It was just a little machine, and the hypnotists know where the buttons are, but you didn't.
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If you didn't know where the buttons were, it looked magic to you.
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But if somebody showed you the buttons, look, look, you just push this button, and you make that person do this other thing.
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If you're a hypnotist, you've seen that so many times that you already knew that intelligence would be easy to reproduce.
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It was inevitable that computers would reproduce that form of intelligence because it wasn't special.
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And that's what Sam Altman said, the CEO of OpenAI.
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So he said the other day that what he learned from AI, the process of creating AI, is that intelligence was not magic.
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If you just arranged physical objects in the right combination, it created intelligence.
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That's exactly what we knew as hypnotists 40 years ago.
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And by the way, the science in this is so stupid that it made me laugh.
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But there's a study that says that obese people have different brains, meaning that they don't get food rewards with a small amount of food.
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So if I go eat a potato, because I really like potatoes, so you could just imagine ice cream or something in your own example.
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You could do anything to a potato, and I would like to eat it.
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So if I go eat a potato, the science says that after a few bites, my brain would light up with dopamine and say, whoa, great potato.
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My brain lights up with a little bit of potatoes.
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And if you sit down right next to me and you eat the same potatoes at the same time, even if you like potatoes, if you're obese, you're not going to get the same light up in your brain.
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You're going to have to eat like twice as many potatoes to get the same amount of dopamine.
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This perfectly explains everything the hypnotist learned 40 years ago.
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Well, really, hundreds of years ago when it was invented.
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My hypnosis instructor, who was himself quite overweight, when he said he understood the whole secret of overeating, and he said, I like to eat.
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Everything you need to know, everything you need to know about obesity and weight was in that one sentence from my hypnosis instructor.
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Now, what he meant by that was he likes to eat more than you do.
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And if you like to eat as much as he did, you would weigh as much as he did.
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Now, what this study of obesity showed, because it's stupid science, what they did was they gave the same amount of food, and I think they did it with a feeding tube, so that you weren't even conscious of the taste buds or anything.
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Just the food directly into your body, and then they could test your brain to see what lights up, and what they found is that even if the obese people lost weight, they still didn't get the benefits that skinny people did of getting their dopamine, which is exactly what we were taught in hypnosis school.
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Which is, it didn't matter how heavy the obese person was, if you could force them to lose weight, they would just be a person who still needed to eat more potatoes.
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It doesn't matter what you weigh, because that's the only way you get the dopamine, eat more potatoes, or whatever.
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So, AI is, and also science, are just catching up to where hypnosis was 40 years ago, and really 100 years ago.
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Is that amazing, or is that just amazing to me?
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Because I've been saying for decades that when you learn hypnosis, it's a superpower.
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You can just tell what's true before other people can tell.
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I also have a prediction that's born out of that same experience, that the so-called AGI, which is the form of AI that everybody's worried about, not the current form.
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The current form is a large language model, meaning that it's just looking for language patterns, so it doesn't have anything that you would call intelligence per se.
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And do you remember a prediction I made before any of this AI stuff took off?
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And I said that the only way AI would look human-ish, you know, the only way it would act like a human, is if you made it stupid.
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Because if you made it smart, we would just disagree with it.
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The experts say that someday we'll have this thing called AGI, artificial general intelligence, as opposed to the LLM.
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So, the artificial general intelligence is the one that's literally going to be smarter than humans.
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Now, I think I'm the only person who has this prediction.
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And the reason I'm the only person who has this prediction is that every one of you are saying the same thing.
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You're definitely going to be wrong on this one.
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But do you know every expert doesn't know how to do it?
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If you tell me that fusion energy is coming, I'll say, you know, that's down to a question of engineering now.
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They just haven't solved the engineering of how you put the parts together to make them work.
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But they will, because it's just trial and error, and eventually they'll get there.
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There's not even a working hypothesis of how that could work.
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So the large language models, they had a theory.
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You just look for the patterns, and that'll give you intelligence, and it worked.
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But here's why I think you'll never get artificial general intelligence.
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I don't believe that a human can program intelligence above their own intelligence.
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And if you could program it to be smarter than you, that would make you smarter.
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Or at least you wouldn't know if you made it smarter than yourself.
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And it might be able to organize them faster and even better in some ways.
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So there are a whole bunch of things that AGI will do that will be, or that AI will do,
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Here's my prediction that's counter to every prediction.
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It will not do common sense and logic better than the smartest human.
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Now, I don't know if I could ever be proven right,
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because it would always look like it's just around the corner.
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I think it's going to be like the walls are closing in.
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Now, we'll definitely have an AI that looks and acts like a human.
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But looking and acting like a human is because it will make mistakes.
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It's the mistakes that will make you surprised that it's not a computer.
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As soon as they made one that was genuinely smarter than you,
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you'd have all kinds of problems recognizing it as being smart.
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So I don't think we can make one that's smarter than us.
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We can make one faster and maybe more organized or something like that,
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And I will accept that 100% of you disagree with that.
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Can we stipulate that just about everybody would disagree with me?
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And there will be massive publicity and security arrangements
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and blah, blah, blah, and that will be the news today.
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So Dershowitz, I believe he's modified his opinion on this a little
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Now, the first opinion I heard from Dershowitz, Alan Dershowitz,
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was that it looked like there might not be that much of a legal risk
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That most of it's covered under a non-criminal statute.
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the phone call could be easily defended against
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just by saying he didn't let the person read it.
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and that he had sort of dismissed the problems.
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the cost-benefit analysis to have a little bit more cost in it.
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But he does, of course, point out that technical legalities aside,
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you're going to have to decide if this is good for the country.
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So it could be that maybe he should be indicted on some technical basis,
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would you be okay if somebody was taken off the field,
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I would not be okay if a Democrat was removed from office
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And certainly not if there was a reasonable defense.
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You know, maybe 12 jurors would find against him.
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But you could never say it wasn't a reasonable defense.
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There's no requirement for me to say the words out loud
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You know, just trying to look at it as a citizen.
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and the fact that if the shoe were on the other foot,
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I definitely would not be in favor of removing a president
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And, of course, you're going to hear a lot of people say
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I think one of the Krasensteins said it on Twitter,
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Try not hearing that the next time you hear it.
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That is one more reason that Elon Musk should hire me
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because once I put that little golem thought in your head,
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Personally, I believe Trump will not be found guilty.
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is that there's just too much of a defense there.