Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2142 Scott Adams： Trump & Truth, Systemic Racism Cortisol Theory, Schiff Censure, AI Debates

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the best thing that's ever happened to anybody in the history of the universe.

00:00:07.960 It's called Coffee with Scott Adams. And aren't you glad you're here? Wow. Wow. Yeah.

00:00:14.120 And if you'd like to take this experience up to levels where, how can I explain it?

00:00:20.440 What kind of a level could we take this up to?

00:00:22.680 The level where you could build, let's say, a railroad from here to the Indian Ocean.

00:00:28.420 That's how good it's going to be.

00:00:30.260 And all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or chalice or stine, a canteen jug or flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:37.280 Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee.

00:00:40.780 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine, the end of the day, the thing that makes everything awesome.

00:00:47.720 It's called Simultaneous Sip. It Happens Now. Go.

00:00:55.340 Ah. Yes.

00:00:57.560 All right. We're private on locals and we're public on YouTube and it's time to go.

00:01:05.440 So, did anybody notice that there's no news?

00:01:10.440 That the news just stopped?

00:01:12.500 If there's anything that would tell you that all the news is artificial,

00:01:18.360 it's that as soon as summer vacation comes,

00:01:22.320 as soon as it's summer vacation, the news stops.

00:01:25.580 Come on.

00:01:26.180 Doesn't that tell you the news is fake?

00:01:29.060 That the news stops when the reporters go on vacation?

00:01:33.260 Like, how could that be?

00:01:35.500 Well, that's not going to stop me from talking about things that are fascinating and interesting

00:01:41.080 and will make you so happy that you're here.

00:01:44.280 I don't know.

00:01:44.840 I think it might be the best day you've ever had in your life.

00:01:48.920 Now, I'm going to be hypnotizing all of you with casual conversation.

00:01:54.700 Here's what I'm going to do.

00:01:56.220 This is going to be very simple hypnosis.

00:01:58.980 It's the simplest form of hypnosis,

00:02:02.160 which is associating something with another thing.

00:02:07.220 Have you noticed that your mood can be influenced by other people?

00:02:11.480 Well, you've all noticed that, right?

00:02:13.580 Somebody sad comes into the room and you're like,

00:02:15.840 ugh, your energy goes down.

00:02:18.120 But somebody happy comes into the room

00:02:19.780 and all of a sudden you're like,

00:02:21.540 whoa, all right, that took me up a little bit.

00:02:24.700 Well, here's what I'm going to do to all of you.

00:02:27.780 I'm in a better mood than you are.

00:02:31.300 That's true.

00:02:32.580 I'm in a great mood.

00:02:33.500 And my good mood, just by itself,

00:02:37.540 is going to start to seep into your being.

00:02:40.880 Your mere exposure to my good, happy mood today

00:02:43.800 will make you happier.

00:02:45.560 You don't have to do anything.

00:02:47.300 Just sit there and let it happen.

00:02:50.720 Go.

00:02:51.860 First story, good news.

00:02:53.520 There's another battery breakthrough.

00:02:55.920 Looks like, who did this?

00:02:58.440 Big old car company.

00:03:01.480 Who's maybe Toyota?

00:03:04.700 Doesn't matter.

00:03:05.740 It's some big car company.

00:03:07.400 They've got some new solid-state battery

00:03:10.960 that's way cool.

00:03:12.860 It'll give you almost a 1,000-mile range

00:03:15.860 and 10-minute charge.

00:03:18.760 Does that sound pretty good?

00:03:20.920 A 932-mile range and a 10-minute charge.

00:03:25.220 And apparently it's all doable.

00:03:27.080 You know, the technology can be demonstrated.

00:03:29.420 It looks like it can be scaled up for mass production.

00:03:33.460 And it's solid-state.

00:03:36.640 So it would be lighter.

00:03:38.040 Well, they can pack more goodness into a smaller space.

00:03:41.640 Anyway, compare that to Tesla Model Y

00:03:44.520 that has one-third the range, sort of,

00:03:48.780 and 15-minute charge.

00:03:50.520 15 minutes, not bad, but one-third the range.

00:03:53.640 So this is not the only battery breakthrough.

00:03:56.080 I always tell you about all the new battery breakthrough things.

00:03:58.840 Because I think the battery breakthrough is everything.

00:04:04.220 I mean, correct me if I'm wrong,

00:04:05.540 but the big problem with green energy is

00:04:07.560 it doesn't work when there's no sun

00:04:10.000 and the wind isn't blowing.

00:04:11.760 But if your batteries get cheap enough and awesome enough,

00:04:15.000 and here's a gigantic step in that direction,

00:04:18.300 then all problems are solved.

00:04:20.460 You just store your energy until you need it.

00:04:24.340 All right.

00:04:25.580 I'm loving the hashtag wannabedictator.

00:04:28.080 You know that came from the Fox News chyron hero

00:04:32.380 who referred to Biden as a wannabe dictator

00:04:36.100 in the last chyron that he did before he was let go.

00:04:42.320 It's still the best quitting story I've ever heard.

00:04:48.560 Nobody's ever quit a job better than that.

00:04:51.040 That is the highest style points for a job quitting

00:04:54.460 there has ever been in the history of the universe.

00:04:58.080 But I'd like to check in on the wannabe dictator

00:05:02.380 of Biden's health.

00:05:04.800 Let's see.

00:05:05.700 He still wants to build a railroad to the Indian Ocean

00:05:08.400 and God save the Queen.

00:05:11.040 Why do you say God save the Queen at the end of his speech?

00:05:19.120 Nobody really knows.

00:05:24.240 Maybe it was something about trans and LGBTQ,

00:05:27.760 but I don't think so.

00:05:29.340 I think it was just some kind of a brain dysfunction.

00:05:32.540 But, you know, I always tell you,

00:05:36.880 my mother told me when I was young

00:05:39.020 that you could get used to anything if you did it long enough,

00:05:44.080 including hanging.

00:05:45.620 And I don't think she made that up.

00:05:47.160 I think that was an old saying from somewhere.

00:05:49.420 But have we gradually gotten used to

00:05:53.000 how degraded Joe Biden is?

00:05:56.520 Is it my imagination, or can you tell me if I'm exaggerating?

00:06:02.380 I can't tell if this is hyperbole.

00:06:05.120 But it seems to me that Biden is about 10 minutes

00:06:08.480 from what I'll call the taxidermy phase,

00:06:11.220 where they literally just stuff him

00:06:13.620 and wheel him around on a cart,

00:06:15.820 and everybody acts like he's still there.

00:06:18.100 Because we're acting like he's still there now.

00:06:24.380 Could you ever imagine we would be in this place?

00:06:28.020 Could you ever imagine that the president

00:06:29.820 would say in public,

00:06:32.540 God saves the Queen randomly,

00:06:34.820 and we want to build a railroad to the Indian Ocean?

00:06:38.680 And that we let those things go.

00:06:40.900 I mean, we talked about them.

00:06:42.300 They were both news, and we had fun with it,

00:06:44.220 and we tweeted, and we made some memes.

00:06:46.540 But generally speaking, we just gave it a pass.

00:06:52.100 We actually got used to having a brainless president.

00:06:57.660 Now, is my mother a genius?

00:07:00.380 Is my mother the smartest person who ever lived?

00:07:02.980 When she said you can get used to anything,

00:07:05.760 I didn't believe that.

00:07:07.600 I didn't believe you can get used to anything.

00:07:10.200 I thought it was like an exaggeration,

00:07:12.720 as in, well, you can get used to some things.

00:07:15.240 There are some things, a small group of things,

00:07:18.420 that you might not think you can get used to,

00:07:20.060 but this small group of things,

00:07:22.000 actually you can.

00:07:22.940 You can get used to them.

00:07:25.080 But no, it turns out you can get used to anything.

00:07:29.020 Anything.

00:07:30.300 We're going to stuff this motherfucker

00:07:32.040 like a pet bear or whatever you stuff.

00:07:36.380 We're going to wheel him around in a car,

00:07:38.660 and the Marines are going to salute him.

00:07:40.720 The Marines are going to salute.

00:07:43.420 They're going to wheel this fucker

00:07:44.660 to the helicopter on a car like this,

00:07:49.680 and the Marine outside the helicopter will be.

00:07:55.380 And everybody will act like nothing happened.

00:08:00.220 I don't know.

00:08:01.220 I think it's funny.

00:08:02.040 Apparently on June 22nd,

00:08:08.620 I saw a Clay Travis tweet on this,

00:08:11.320 June 22nd, which is just a few days from now,

00:08:15.700 Trump's exclusive contract with Truth Social ends,

00:08:20.420 meaning that he can tweet anywhere he wants,

00:08:24.600 anytime he wants.

00:08:26.040 At the moment, he's limited to truth.

00:08:28.580 Now, what do you think he's going to do?

00:08:29.860 Because if Trump starts tweeting on Twitter,

00:08:36.100 and it's the same tweets,

00:08:38.900 why would anybody be on truth?

00:08:41.900 I mean, it might just destroy the entire model,

00:08:44.220 if it's working at all.

00:08:45.500 So I don't know if truth is, you know,

00:08:48.300 on the way to make money or not.

00:08:50.340 But he's got a big decision,

00:08:52.480 because I believe he's got a sizable equity interest in that.

00:08:56.660 He would like it to work.

00:08:57.920 On the other hand, he wants to be president.

00:09:00.640 You know what?

00:09:01.480 I'm almost semi-convinced that he should stay on truth

00:09:06.920 for his presidential benefit.

00:09:11.500 Do you know why?

00:09:13.600 Because the less the people see of him, the better.

00:09:17.980 But the people on truth are the people who absolutely want to see him.

00:09:21.640 Those are the people who said,

00:09:23.680 I'm here to see you.

00:09:25.460 Give me more of you.

00:09:27.080 And then he gives it to him.

00:09:28.720 And all the people on Twitter would only benefit from less of him.

00:09:33.180 Am I wrong?

00:09:34.640 They would only benefit from less of him.

00:09:36.820 Yeah, people do retweet him, but it doesn't get the same energy.

00:09:43.780 Like, I almost never see a Don Jr.

00:09:47.080 Actually, I had never seen Don Jr.'s tweets.

00:09:49.060 I just realized that Don Jr. is completely removed from my Twitter feed.

00:09:55.060 On a side note,

00:09:59.960 the stuff that is surfaced to me on Twitter

00:10:04.740 is so different than it used to be.

00:10:07.140 But I can tell that people I really would like to see their tweets are just gone.

00:10:12.820 So why is it that people I follow, I don't see their tweets?

00:10:16.580 Like, at all.

00:10:18.660 Isn't the whole point of following somebody

00:10:20.400 that you would see all of their tweets?

00:10:22.560 Like, in theory, wouldn't I see 100% of his tweets, right?

00:10:26.920 But I don't remember the last time I've seen one.

00:10:30.000 So there's something going on with the Twitter algorithm that's not cool.

00:10:34.400 Because I'm following people and I'm not seeing their tweets at all.

00:10:39.460 Like, zero times.

00:10:41.000 What's up with that?

00:10:42.520 I mean, the most basic thing of Twitter is

00:10:44.260 you follow somebody so you can see their stuff.

00:10:46.600 I don't follow things so they can show me whatever the fuck they want.

00:10:50.300 But that seems to be what's happening.

00:10:52.620 I don't understand it at all.

00:10:55.180 So, anyway, that needs to get fixed, I think.

00:10:58.540 So I saw a funny meme, if you call it that,

00:11:02.320 video that was an AI version of Biden and Trump doing a debate.

00:11:08.700 Now, it was a funny version where they were just doing insults.

00:11:12.980 But I thought to myself,

00:11:14.960 suppose you've got two candidates who don't want to debate.

00:11:19.760 It could be in the primary, it could be anywhere else.

00:11:21.780 How hard would it be to create an AI deepfake of both of the candidates,

00:11:29.440 train them both on all of the policies and all of the recent speeches?

00:11:35.020 You don't want to go back too far.

00:11:37.180 But just say recent speeches, you know, last two, three years, something.

00:11:41.460 You don't think you could get the AIs to do the debate

00:11:44.500 and you would learn as much?

00:11:47.180 Would you not learn as much as if you saw the real people debate?

00:11:50.220 Because ask yourself, what's the point of a debate?

00:11:54.260 What's the point of a debate?

00:11:56.820 Do you know the only thing we get out of a debate

00:11:59.120 is fake gotchas?

00:12:02.940 That's it.

00:12:04.780 Fake gotchas.

00:12:06.480 Because in terms of policy, it's already published.

00:12:09.860 Right?

00:12:10.140 Their policies are already on their websites.

00:12:12.560 They say it every day.

00:12:14.160 So you could certainly teach the AI

00:12:16.820 to answer any question about policy.

00:12:20.220 Have you used AI enough to know that that's true?

00:12:24.640 Chat GPT would give you a perfect impression

00:12:27.460 of their policy preferences

00:12:29.460 and could answer a question,

00:12:31.840 actually answer a question based on the policies.

00:12:35.120 And it could give you a good answer,

00:12:37.000 a very complete one with caveats and everything else.

00:12:40.480 In fact, it could do it better than the candidates themselves.

00:12:43.280 Do you disagree?

00:12:47.300 I think AI could represent its real person

00:12:52.240 better than the real person could represent themselves.

00:12:57.020 Because the AI would not get flustered.

00:13:00.140 The AI would not do a human thing that shows its flaws.

00:13:04.900 And AI would not forget what it was going to say.

00:13:07.840 It would not get excited about something.

00:13:10.360 It would not give the stupid answer.

00:13:14.060 And if it did give a stupid answer,

00:13:15.740 you wouldn't blame the candidate.

00:13:17.420 You'd blame the program.

00:13:19.760 So it could actually make a mistake,

00:13:21.840 and then the public wouldn't care.

00:13:23.480 They'd say, well, that was just the AI.

00:13:25.440 That wasn't the candidate.

00:13:28.360 So you don't think that there will be a debate

00:13:30.420 between Biden and RFK Jr.?

00:13:33.600 Prediction.

00:13:34.900 Prediction.

00:13:35.340 There will be a debate,

00:13:37.500 but it will be two AI characters.

00:13:40.460 How much attention could a real debate

00:13:42.900 between two AI characters get?

00:13:45.440 Like, how many views would that get?

00:13:48.220 An actual, let's say, one-hour debate

00:13:50.220 with real deep fakes.

00:13:52.800 Real deep fakes.

00:13:54.860 I believe it would get millions.

00:13:57.280 Yeah, I think it would get millions.

00:13:58.920 Because I would not be less interested

00:14:01.060 in the AI version.

00:14:02.440 I would be fascinated to see how the AI

00:14:05.600 handled their two competing deals.

00:14:11.360 There are some of you who wouldn't watch it,

00:14:12.960 and I get that.

00:14:13.860 But it would be really interesting.

00:14:15.140 I think a lot of people would watch it.

00:14:17.180 Now, that's interesting, too.

00:14:20.080 The deep fake, here's what I would do

00:14:22.920 if I made the deep fake of RFK Jr.

00:14:26.060 I would start with his actual voice

00:14:28.320 as it is today.

00:14:29.200 And then, in fairly short time,

00:14:33.180 I would improve it as he talks.

00:14:36.460 So that you would almost not notice

00:14:39.160 that the imperfections start to decrease.

00:14:42.340 And then, say, five minutes in,

00:14:44.700 it just disappears.

00:14:46.640 And you're just listening to everybody else's voice.

00:14:49.840 That would be cool.

00:14:51.300 Now, it might also be insensitive

00:14:54.020 to people with disabilities.

00:14:58.760 Do you see that?

00:15:00.440 I think it would be insensitive

00:15:02.140 to take his disability away

00:15:03.880 in a public forum.

00:15:07.360 Because that would be sort of like saying

00:15:08.860 you have to change him to make him better

00:15:10.540 or something like that.

00:15:11.300 I don't know.

00:15:11.900 I feel like people with actual other disabilities

00:15:14.880 might be insulted

00:15:15.780 just by the fact that the AI

00:15:18.460 thought it needed to fix it.

00:15:20.580 You know what I mean?

00:15:22.000 Am I all alone on this?

00:15:24.020 I think I'm all alone on that.

00:15:26.780 I don't know.

00:15:27.460 I feel like there's a sensitivity there

00:15:29.240 where we should accept him the way he is,

00:15:32.060 not imagine that we need to fix him in our minds.

00:15:36.140 I might be a little sensitive to this

00:15:37.820 because I had the same issue with my voice.

00:15:40.120 So I might be a little tightly wound on that topic.

00:15:44.380 All right.

00:15:45.300 I'd love to see it, though.

00:15:46.340 So I guess Juneteenth is...

00:15:51.280 Monday is the celebration of Juneteenth,

00:15:54.260 which I understand to be the last day

00:15:57.000 that slavery was legal in an American state.

00:16:02.720 Now, what do you think of Juneteenth?

00:16:05.900 Do you think it...

00:16:07.380 in Texas specifically?

00:16:09.100 And what do you think of that?

00:16:10.860 Should we have that holiday?

00:16:12.380 Or are you against it?

00:16:13.780 Anybody opposed to it?

00:16:17.400 Yeah, I see people saying,

00:16:19.040 F that and blah, blah, blah.

00:16:22.200 All right.

00:16:23.460 I want to tell you how easily I was persuaded.

00:16:28.420 All right.

00:16:28.860 I have to admit I went into it with a little bit of,

00:16:31.640 all right, this might be a little over-woke.

00:16:34.960 You know what I mean?

00:16:36.180 Because if you read enough right-leaning media,

00:16:39.360 there's like a little bit of a sense

00:16:41.760 that maybe it's a little unnecessary,

00:16:46.720 a little too much,

00:16:48.220 a little too for one group,

00:16:50.700 maybe a little too woke.

00:16:53.180 And I have to admit I was leaning in that direction.

00:16:55.240 I didn't...

00:16:56.440 I had no problem with it.

00:16:58.060 I mean, I didn't have a disagreement with it.

00:16:59.700 I just thought, you know,

00:17:01.140 sign of the times.

00:17:02.660 It's a sign of the times.

00:17:04.180 Then I saw a quick video clip

00:17:05.860 of apparently the woman

00:17:07.560 who seems to be behind it becoming a big deal

00:17:11.840 in the United States.

00:17:13.240 It was a black woman.

00:17:14.840 She looks like a grandmother now.

00:17:17.200 And she was taught...

00:17:18.500 And it was just a little clip,

00:17:19.800 probably a 10-second clip

00:17:23.380 of her making her point.

00:17:26.040 And in 10 seconds,

00:17:28.060 she completely changed my mind.

00:17:32.000 And I'm going to quote her, roughly, paraphrase,

00:17:35.980 and I'm going to see if I can do the same to you.

00:17:39.380 So she's talking to the crowd

00:17:40.920 about the importance of Juneteenth,

00:17:42.500 and she says something like this,

00:17:44.220 rough quote,

00:17:46.000 it's not about black, it's not about white,

00:17:47.840 it's about America.

00:17:49.520 It's an America celebration.

00:17:52.040 Sold.

00:17:53.360 Sold.

00:17:55.680 Don't say anything else.

00:17:58.620 Do you know what I always talk about?

00:18:01.560 Don't keep selling past the sale.

00:18:04.320 Once you've closed the sale,

00:18:06.040 shut up.

00:18:07.280 Shut up.

00:18:08.440 You just made the sale.

00:18:10.680 It's about America.

00:18:12.620 Sold.

00:18:13.780 Good.

00:18:14.320 I'm all in.

00:18:15.460 100% sold.

00:18:17.840 The person who came up with it

00:18:19.440 tells me it's about America.

00:18:22.460 Yep.

00:18:23.540 I'm in.

00:18:26.020 So let's celebrate that on June 19th.

00:18:29.680 All right.

00:18:30.480 Here's my bottom line at the moment

00:18:32.800 on those Mar-a-Lago boxes.

00:18:37.600 See if you agree with these following statements.

00:18:40.340 Professional lawyers,

00:18:42.940 the best lawyers in the world,

00:18:46.600 cannot agree whether a crime of any importance was committed.

00:18:51.580 True or false?

00:18:53.480 There are definitely top lawyers who say yes,

00:18:56.700 but are there not also top lawyers who say no or maybe?

00:19:00.420 So without saying whether it is a crime or is not,

00:19:07.380 can we simply agree that the biggest experts on what is a crime can't tell?

00:19:13.560 Meaning they don't agree.

00:19:15.160 I mean, if you ask them, they say they can tell,

00:19:17.260 but they don't agree.

00:19:19.720 Now, number two.

00:19:21.300 I think you can agree on that.

00:19:22.740 Number two.

00:19:24.920 The public is unlikely ever to see the documents

00:19:28.660 to judge for ourselves

00:19:30.880 whether these are important secrets that got released.

00:19:34.740 Now, I'm not saying that we should.

00:19:37.480 Somebody on Twitter,

00:19:39.280 like a very dumb person on Twitter,

00:19:41.080 said,

00:19:41.800 are you saying that we should see all of these secret documents?

00:19:45.780 No.

00:19:47.340 No.

00:19:47.960 I'm not saying we should.

00:19:49.040 I'm saying we won't.

00:19:51.840 In all likelihood.

00:19:53.600 In all likelihood.

00:19:54.680 Because if the documents were so unimportant

00:19:57.180 that they could just declassify them today,

00:20:00.380 then that would take away the whole point of the case.

00:20:03.720 Not the whole point,

00:20:04.980 but it would weaken the case

00:20:06.480 because that would be an admission

00:20:08.080 that was nothing there of importance.

00:20:09.980 They just showed the public.

00:20:12.580 But can you live with this situation

00:20:15.220 that might be developing?

00:20:16.480 Can you imagine

00:20:18.300 putting a past, present,

00:20:21.540 and current candidate

00:20:22.640 in prison

00:20:24.340 for life

00:20:26.400 for something that

00:20:28.900 the best lawyers can't even agree

00:20:30.860 is a crime

00:20:31.780 and the public is not allowed

00:20:34.060 to see the most important part

00:20:36.640 of the evidence?

00:20:38.200 Can you even imagine it?

00:20:40.440 Honestly, I can't.

00:20:42.460 I actually can't imagine that.

00:20:45.340 Like, actually can't.

00:20:46.440 Like, when I say I can't imagine it,

00:20:49.300 I mean my imagination

00:20:50.500 literally can't concoct it.

00:20:52.920 I can't play it

00:20:54.340 as like a little movie in my head.

00:20:56.280 It's just too far.

00:20:59.320 So this is what I mean by too far.

00:21:02.040 That's just too far.

00:21:04.160 And so when I say

00:21:05.100 it's not going to happen,

00:21:07.160 I don't mean, you know,

00:21:08.700 I'm going to do some personal thing

00:21:10.460 that would make it not happen.

00:21:11.980 I mean, it's not up to me.

00:21:13.020 I'm saying it's not going to happen.

00:21:16.940 Because one way or another,

00:21:18.980 the country won't let that happen.

00:21:21.940 We won't let it happen.

00:21:24.300 Collectively.

00:21:25.920 And I don't have to say,

00:21:27.640 you know,

00:21:27.880 what will the country do?

00:21:29.540 You know,

00:21:29.740 what will be the response?

00:21:30.920 I don't think we're talking about,

00:21:32.360 you know,

00:21:32.600 an armed revolution or anything.

00:21:36.860 Nothing violent.

00:21:37.760 I'm just saying,

00:21:40.020 no.

00:21:41.140 No.

00:21:42.400 Absolutely not.

00:21:44.060 That's just too far.

00:21:46.580 And whatever it takes

00:21:49.240 to make that stop,

00:21:50.580 short of violence,

00:21:51.600 we don't need that.

00:21:52.680 But whatever it takes.

00:21:55.020 I don't know,

00:21:55.660 it might be extreme civil obedience.

00:21:59.060 You know,

00:21:59.300 I was sort of

00:22:01.520 half seriously saying that,

00:22:05.280 you know,

00:22:05.480 people might stop paying taxes.

00:22:07.040 But realistically,

00:22:08.600 it's kind of hard to do that.

00:22:11.040 I think something would happen.

00:22:13.460 I think something would happen.

00:22:15.680 It wouldn't surprise me

00:22:16.700 if everybody who had a gun

00:22:18.000 decided to

00:22:19.500 march down the street with it.

00:22:23.600 Imagine how scary that would be.

00:22:25.740 If just everybody who had a gun

00:22:27.320 just took it out

00:22:28.480 and just started marching down the street.

00:22:30.660 Didn't say anything.

00:22:32.340 No words necessary.

00:22:34.220 Just take all the guns out.

00:22:35.960 If you've got three guns,

00:22:37.160 take a ball.

00:22:38.280 And just walk down the street

00:22:39.360 altogether.

00:22:41.980 Now,

00:22:42.620 that's not a suggestion.

00:22:45.580 I'm using that as an example of

00:22:48.200 there's probably something

00:22:50.220 that the public would do,

00:22:53.260 but there's no way

00:22:54.320 they're going to let that happen.

00:22:55.660 There's just no way

00:22:56.840 that with what we know today,

00:23:00.240 they're going to put him in prison.

00:23:01.300 So I would see it

00:23:03.180 as more of a political move

00:23:04.820 to try to suppress

00:23:05.940 his election chances.

00:23:08.680 But I'll tell you,

00:23:10.520 here's how I read the room.

00:23:13.580 I think Trump is getting

00:23:14.880 more popular every day,

00:23:16.980 and some of it has to do

00:23:18.540 with the fact that the media

00:23:19.620 is reducing his visibility.

00:23:22.300 I think it's working for him.

00:23:25.280 They're reducing his visibility

00:23:26.780 at the same time

00:23:27.660 they're sucking all the energy

00:23:28.800 from the other candidates.

00:23:30.380 It's sort of the perfect situation.

00:23:33.520 Because they can't stop

00:23:34.760 talking about him,

00:23:36.500 but they're trying to keep

00:23:38.320 the talking about him

00:23:39.640 in this little narrow area

00:23:40.960 of his bad behavior

00:23:42.960 as they see it.

00:23:44.660 Except that so many people

00:23:46.220 don't see it as that bad,

00:23:48.880 that they're spending

00:23:49.520 all the time on a thing

00:23:50.480 that people really

00:23:51.160 don't give a shit about.

00:23:53.400 Do you think there's actually

00:23:54.440 a Democrat who cares

00:23:55.540 about his Mar-a-Lago boxes?

00:23:56.960 Like, actually really care?

00:24:00.920 Like, even one

00:24:01.940 in the whole world?

00:24:04.100 Do you think there's one?

00:24:05.220 You know, it would be funny

00:24:06.180 to see if you could get

00:24:07.500 that person to say it

00:24:08.800 on video.

00:24:10.900 Hey, what do you think

00:24:11.660 about these Mar-a-Lago boxes?

00:24:14.780 Well, I believe we'll need

00:24:17.080 to bring somebody in for that.

00:24:21.860 Dale?

00:24:23.260 What do you think

00:24:23.980 of President Trump

00:24:24.980 and those Mar-a-Lago boxes?

00:24:27.420 It's pretty bad.

00:24:28.480 Worst thing in the world.

00:24:29.960 Worst thing in the world.

00:24:33.020 Worst thing in the world.

00:24:34.960 Is it worse than inflation?

00:24:37.780 It's not worse than inflation,

00:24:39.140 but second worst thing

00:24:40.460 in the world.

00:24:41.940 Is it worse than

00:24:42.980 potential nuclear war

00:24:44.400 over Ukraine?

00:24:45.260 Not worse than that.

00:24:46.380 Third worst thing

00:24:47.400 in the world.

00:24:47.940 Is it worse than

00:24:49.880 the high unemployment?

00:24:51.940 Unemployment?

00:24:52.760 It's not worse than that,

00:24:53.720 but it's the fifth worst

00:24:55.060 thing in the world.

00:24:57.280 And then you just keep going.

00:25:00.180 You get to see

00:25:01.080 where Dale takes his stand.

00:25:04.040 All right.

00:25:06.100 This is the farthest

00:25:07.260 I'm going to go.

00:25:08.380 It's the 27th

00:25:09.600 most important thing

00:25:10.440 in the world.

00:25:13.160 What about climate change?

00:25:15.000 28th.

00:25:15.620 28th most important thing

00:25:16.920 in the world.

00:25:17.400 And so it goes.

00:25:21.740 But seriously,

00:25:23.320 you know,

00:25:24.040 joking aside,

00:25:25.360 do you think you could get

00:25:26.500 an actual regular human being

00:25:28.540 on, you know,

00:25:31.040 on video

00:25:31.620 to say,

00:25:33.180 yeah,

00:25:34.200 I tell you,

00:25:34.760 those Mar-a-Lago boxes

00:25:36.140 are keeping me up at night.

00:25:38.280 I was worried about

00:25:39.680 the climate

00:25:40.460 frying the world.

00:25:42.260 I was worried about

00:25:43.680 nuclear holocaust

00:25:45.580 because of the Ukraine war.

00:25:47.400 But not anymore.

00:25:49.460 Not anymore.

00:25:50.080 Now it's the Mar-a-Lago boxes.

00:25:52.420 I can't tell you

00:25:53.240 about the nightmares

00:25:54.080 I've had

00:25:54.700 about the boxes.

00:25:57.160 And when I imagine

00:25:58.520 in my mind

00:25:59.260 Trump rustling papers

00:26:01.600 and talking about secrets,

00:26:03.320 oh, no,

00:26:04.820 no,

00:26:05.260 this sound.

00:26:06.940 Here,

00:26:07.140 here's some secrets.

00:26:08.020 Here's some secrets.

00:26:08.980 I just hear it in my mind.

00:26:10.960 And it makes me crazy.

00:26:12.340 Yeah.

00:26:12.540 I mean,

00:26:15.880 in all seriousness,

00:26:17.620 wouldn't it be funny

00:26:18.420 to get somebody

00:26:19.160 to try to tell you

00:26:20.660 that they really care

00:26:22.500 about the boxes,

00:26:23.720 that they actually

00:26:25.140 care about them?

00:26:27.100 That would be hilarious

00:26:28.220 because at first

00:26:30.360 they'd say yes,

00:26:31.640 but then you push them

00:26:32.460 on it.

00:26:33.280 Yeah,

00:26:33.460 where is this,

00:26:34.440 where is it

00:26:34.980 in your list

00:26:35.480 of priorities?

00:26:36.080 If you were to compare

00:26:38.060 the Mar-a-Lago boxes

00:26:39.500 to, let's say,

00:26:41.140 the health of your family,

00:26:43.940 is it higher than that?

00:26:45.900 You can see

00:26:46.680 where that would go.

00:26:48.480 Get back in the box,

00:26:49.480 Dale.

00:26:52.460 All right.

00:26:55.820 One of the things

00:26:56.740 I've been waiting to see

00:26:58.100 is something that

00:26:59.060 famous investor

00:27:00.320 Bill Ackman

00:27:01.160 wants to see as well.

00:27:03.300 You're aware

00:27:03.840 that Joe Rogan

00:27:05.480 did an extensive interview

00:27:06.680 with RFK Jr.,

00:27:08.080 and RFK Jr.

00:27:09.360 made a number

00:27:10.000 of claims

00:27:10.580 about vaccinations

00:27:12.580 and cell phone calls

00:27:14.980 and being bad for you

00:27:18.600 and basically vaccinations

00:27:21.820 and some other things.

00:27:24.800 So if you're just listening

00:27:27.540 to one person make claims,

00:27:29.640 they would be very persuasive.

00:27:32.320 Have I ever taught you

00:27:33.520 that listening to one lawyer

00:27:35.460 talk about their case

00:27:37.460 tells you absolutely

00:27:39.380 nothing about the truth?

00:27:41.600 Nothing about the truth.

00:27:43.220 Because a lawyer,

00:27:44.300 by training,

00:27:46.520 and that's what RFK Jr. is,

00:27:48.780 they're trained to give you

00:27:50.180 their version of things,

00:27:51.400 and they're trained

00:27:52.060 to make you sound

00:27:52.740 persuasive as hell

00:27:53.920 until you hear the other side.

00:27:56.740 It's hearing the other side

00:27:57.920 where everything falls apart.

00:27:58.980 So there's a three-hour Joe Rogan.

00:28:03.800 Was that a useful service

00:28:06.000 to America?

00:28:08.360 Do you think Joe,

00:28:09.280 because I consider Joe Rogan

00:28:10.580 a national treasure,

00:28:12.340 one of the most useful,

00:28:13.620 useful citizens

00:28:15.760 America has ever produced.

00:28:18.020 And his show is a,

00:28:19.960 you know,

00:28:20.260 it's a force of nature.

00:28:21.280 All right,

00:28:23.140 but everybody who said

00:28:23.920 that's useful,

00:28:24.680 useful,

00:28:25.260 you are so wrong.

00:28:26.300 Oh my God,

00:28:26.900 you're wrong.

00:28:27.920 You could not be more wrong.

00:28:30.240 There's nothing more destructive

00:28:31.500 than three hours

00:28:32.460 of one lawyer's opinion.

00:28:34.620 In fact,

00:28:35.120 if you were to make a list

00:28:36.140 of the worst fucking things

00:28:37.500 you could ever do,

00:28:38.240 that would be it.

00:28:39.580 That's the worst thing

00:28:40.660 you could do.

00:28:42.060 So I would say that

00:28:43.340 the Joe Rogan

00:28:44.760 three hours with RFK

00:28:47.060 was damaging to the country.

00:28:49.320 That was just bad

00:28:50.320 for the country.

00:28:51.260 Absolutely fucking bad.

00:28:53.200 Really bad.

00:28:54.420 Like,

00:28:54.620 seriously,

00:28:55.600 seriously bad.

00:28:56.960 It's like,

00:28:57.520 one of the worst things

00:28:58.300 has happened this year.

00:29:00.120 Now,

00:29:00.660 am I saying that RFK

00:29:01.740 was wrong about anything?

00:29:03.560 Nope.

00:29:04.580 Nope.

00:29:05.540 You didn't hear that.

00:29:07.180 That was not in my opinion.

00:29:09.560 Do I think he's probably wrong

00:29:11.600 about some things he claims?

00:29:14.860 I would put a really big bet

00:29:16.700 on that.

00:29:18.640 Because when I listen to him talk,

00:29:20.820 I hear a lot of correlation

00:29:22.200 that he thinks is causation.

00:29:24.620 And I can't,

00:29:26.320 I just can't buy into that.

00:29:28.560 I understand the correlation,

00:29:30.580 and I understand

00:29:31.620 it would be worth looking into.

00:29:33.100 I agree with that completely.

00:29:35.200 But to assume

00:29:37.780 that we know something

00:29:38.780 because of correlation

00:29:39.880 is a really big ask,

00:29:42.300 and I can't get there.

00:29:43.960 So here's what would

00:29:45.160 have been useful.

00:29:46.400 What would have been

00:29:47.180 really useful

00:29:47.800 is somebody who had

00:29:48.740 the same amount of knowledge

00:29:50.780 as RFK Jr. has,

00:29:53.140 but has a different

00:29:54.240 point of view.

00:29:55.560 And have both of them

00:29:56.840 on for three hours,

00:29:57.880 and one says a claim,

00:29:59.160 the other says

00:29:59.740 what they think,

00:30:00.800 then maybe,

00:30:02.300 maybe you would have

00:30:03.160 something good

00:30:03.720 for the country.

00:30:04.360 But whether Joe Rogan

00:30:06.800 had RFK Jr. on

00:30:08.320 or somebody

00:30:10.320 just as powerful

00:30:11.220 who had completely

00:30:12.380 opposite points of view,

00:30:14.360 my opinion would be

00:30:15.280 the same.

00:30:16.520 It wouldn't matter

00:30:17.160 if you had RFK Jr.

00:30:18.360 for three hours,

00:30:19.380 or somebody disagreed

00:30:20.740 with everything he said

00:30:21.700 for three hours.

00:30:22.700 If you have them on

00:30:23.780 by themselves

00:30:24.640 with just Joe Rogan,

00:30:26.780 that is a huge mistake

00:30:28.380 and a disservice

00:30:29.180 to the country.

00:30:29.880 A very big one.

00:30:31.000 It's a really big disservice.

00:30:32.460 And I think,

00:30:34.800 because I love me

00:30:36.260 some Joe Rogan,

00:30:37.620 as most of you do.

00:30:39.580 And so, you know,

00:30:41.800 I have ultimate respect

00:30:42.960 for everything he's doing.

00:30:44.720 But that's a real big mistake

00:30:46.380 in terms of benefit

00:30:47.820 to the country.

00:30:48.980 It's real good

00:30:49.580 for ratings.

00:30:51.320 You know,

00:30:51.500 it's good for,

00:30:52.380 you know,

00:30:53.460 entertainment.

00:30:54.400 But in terms of

00:30:55.440 informing the country,

00:30:56.740 it's a disaster.

00:30:58.220 It's a fucking disaster.

00:31:00.480 And not because

00:31:01.520 RFK is wrong.

00:31:02.840 You get that, right?

00:31:04.360 I'm not saying

00:31:05.160 RFK Jr. is wrong.

00:31:07.240 I'm saying

00:31:07.840 if you don't put

00:31:08.440 the other side,

00:31:09.440 when there is

00:31:10.180 such a big other side,

00:31:11.800 if you don't put them

00:31:12.600 on there at the same time,

00:31:14.160 you are misinforming

00:31:15.260 the public,

00:31:16.180 period.

00:31:17.480 Period.

00:31:18.120 That's just propaganda

00:31:19.240 at that point.

00:31:20.900 Now, it's accidental.

00:31:22.620 There's no way

00:31:23.380 that Joe Rogan

00:31:24.160 is, like,

00:31:24.740 intentionally trying

00:31:25.680 to mislead people.

00:31:27.220 There's no way

00:31:28.240 that's true.

00:31:29.380 We've all watched

00:31:30.320 him long enough.

00:31:31.060 We know he's

00:31:32.360 pretty dedicated

00:31:33.140 to what's true.

00:31:34.600 So there's no way

00:31:35.380 he's trying to do

00:31:36.040 anything that's misleading.

00:31:37.500 It just works out

00:31:38.420 that way.

00:31:39.120 That's just the outcome.

00:31:40.660 So I would bet

00:31:41.460 there's a whole bunch

00:31:42.580 of people who are

00:31:43.380 very persuaded

00:31:44.240 by RFK Jr.

00:31:45.360 and you should not

00:31:47.440 have been.

00:31:48.800 And I don't mean

00:31:49.520 because his arguments

00:31:50.420 are not good,

00:31:51.280 because they're actually

00:31:51.780 quite good.

00:31:52.680 His arguments are

00:31:53.320 very persuasive-sounding.

00:31:56.180 I just can't judge them.

00:31:59.740 Yeah, you would be

00:32:00.640 very, very poorly served

00:32:02.360 if you watched that.

00:32:03.320 In fact,

00:32:03.700 that's the reason

00:32:04.140 I didn't watch it.

00:32:05.400 I saw some clips,

00:32:07.000 and I said,

00:32:07.600 I'm not going to watch this.

00:32:09.260 This is not good.

00:32:11.120 This does not help anybody.

00:32:14.200 All right.

00:32:15.200 However,

00:32:15.840 I love the fact

00:32:16.600 that RFK Jr.

00:32:17.540 will go anywhere

00:32:18.480 and talk to anybody.

00:32:19.600 He can do it

00:32:20.060 without notes.

00:32:21.140 He can do it persuasively.

00:32:22.580 He's impressive as hell.

00:32:24.600 So let me say that.

00:32:25.920 RFK Jr.,

00:32:27.420 impressive as hell.

00:32:29.560 Doesn't mean he's right.

00:32:30.600 And I've got some

00:32:32.540 big questions about that.

00:32:34.900 But, impressive.

00:32:37.020 All right.

00:32:37.760 I did see a Twitter user

00:32:39.700 called BadStats.

00:32:41.940 And I retweeted it

00:32:43.200 if you're looking for it.

00:32:44.280 In which he went through

00:32:45.280 and tried to,

00:32:47.260 I'm going to use the word

00:32:48.440 debunk,

00:32:49.700 but since I don't know

00:32:50.700 which one is right,

00:32:52.500 don't assume that the debunker

00:32:54.300 is the right one.

00:32:55.360 I'm just using that

00:32:56.280 as a shorthand.

00:32:57.260 So somebody who disagreed.

00:32:59.300 And it was a long,

00:33:00.600 long thread

00:33:00.940 in which he went through

00:33:01.900 various things

00:33:02.840 and showed his work.

00:33:05.440 So, that was useful.

00:33:08.020 If the only thing you saw

00:33:09.220 was RFK Jr.

00:33:11.000 on Joe Rogan,

00:33:13.360 you should see somebody

00:33:15.020 who's got a different opinion

00:33:16.660 and some knowledge

00:33:17.840 pushing back on it.

00:33:20.300 The pushback is just as strong.

00:33:23.720 Right?

00:33:24.160 If you listen to RFK Jr.

00:33:25.440 by himself,

00:33:26.140 you're totally persuaded

00:33:27.180 because he's very persuasive.

00:33:29.240 As soon as you see

00:33:30.080 the thread

00:33:30.860 that calls out,

00:33:32.980 you know,

00:33:33.300 some,

00:33:34.040 let's say,

00:33:36.020 I don't want to say flaws,

00:33:37.080 but a different opinion

00:33:37.800 on the same situation,

00:33:39.960 you completely change your mind.

00:33:41.840 You're like,

00:33:42.220 oh,

00:33:43.080 ooh,

00:33:43.380 I didn't know that.

00:33:44.800 Ooh,

00:33:45.220 really?

00:33:46.000 Really?

00:33:46.360 That's a correlation,

00:33:47.220 not a causation?

00:33:48.100 Ooh.

00:33:48.980 But then you look

00:33:49.900 at the debunk

00:33:50.760 and you say to yourself,

00:33:51.740 okay,

00:33:51.960 there's one part

00:33:52.780 of this debunk

00:33:53.500 that I know

00:33:53.960 looks like bullshit.

00:33:54.660 And then you say to yourself,

00:33:57.380 all right,

00:33:57.680 who's behind this debunking?

00:33:59.100 Is it Big Pharma?

00:34:00.300 So you never really

00:34:01.300 can get to full confidence.

00:34:03.680 I'm just saying

00:34:04.220 if you haven't seen both sides,

00:34:05.440 you've seen nothing.

00:34:07.680 All right.

00:34:08.160 I have a theory

00:34:09.520 of systemic racism

00:34:11.160 that cortisol levels

00:34:15.900 could be measured

00:34:18.500 to find out

00:34:19.300 where systemic racism

00:34:20.740 is bad,

00:34:21.880 and then you could use that,

00:34:23.580 that knowledge,

00:34:25.460 to know what to do about it.

00:34:27.320 Now,

00:34:27.620 cortisol is the chemical

00:34:29.100 released when you're

00:34:30.380 under stress.

00:34:32.420 And what happens is

00:34:33.700 if your cortisol level

00:34:34.820 goes up,

00:34:35.440 John,

00:34:40.240 are you stupid?

00:34:41.920 I can't tell.

00:34:43.560 Let's figure out

00:34:44.560 if John is stupid.

00:34:45.960 Here's what he says.

00:34:46.780 Scott,

00:34:47.280 Scott,

00:34:48.120 big issues with RFK,

00:34:49.860 but little mountain

00:34:51.240 with his argument

00:34:52.100 is because he refuses

00:34:53.900 to hear him speak.

00:34:56.220 So somebody's saying

00:34:57.160 that my refusing

00:34:58.240 to hear one side

00:34:59.680 is making me dumb.

00:35:02.520 Whereas my only point was

00:35:04.220 you should hear

00:35:04.780 both sides.

00:35:06.580 But you think

00:35:07.380 that refusing to hear

00:35:08.240 one side by itself

00:35:09.360 makes me dumb,

00:35:11.180 John.

00:35:12.800 Do better.

00:35:13.640 Do better, John.

00:35:14.860 You can do better than that.

00:35:18.520 Who argues against

00:35:20.020 hearing both sides

00:35:21.020 of an argument

00:35:21.580 besides John?

00:35:23.420 All right.

00:35:33.920 Cortisol.

00:35:35.220 So if your cortisol

00:35:36.380 levels are high,

00:35:37.540 it lowers your

00:35:38.300 cognitive function.

00:35:39.800 Did you know that?

00:35:41.340 If you're stressed,

00:35:42.440 you actually can't

00:35:43.240 think as well.

00:35:44.040 You don't,

00:35:44.560 and if it's long term,

00:35:46.840 long term,

00:35:47.620 you're just not going

00:35:48.900 to do as well

00:35:49.660 in school.

00:35:50.200 So your academic

00:35:52.320 performance,

00:35:53.200 your actual IQ

00:35:54.120 will drop

00:35:54.880 if you have enough

00:35:56.120 cortisol for long

00:35:57.080 enough.

00:35:57.360 So that's based on

00:35:58.260 stress.

00:35:59.260 Now, where would

00:35:59.900 cortisol be highest?

00:36:02.060 Where do you think

00:36:02.900 would be the highest

00:36:03.600 cortisol?

00:36:04.680 Well, I'll speculate.

00:36:07.060 I would imagine

00:36:07.660 if you were poor,

00:36:09.420 you would have

00:36:10.140 higher cortisol.

00:36:10.920 There's at least one

00:36:11.640 study that shows

00:36:12.740 a strong correlation.

00:36:14.300 So poverty alone

00:36:15.420 would give you

00:36:15.840 higher cortisol.

00:36:16.640 But also,

00:36:18.360 I would think

00:36:19.180 living in a high

00:36:20.380 crime area,

00:36:22.220 you know,

00:36:22.440 dangerous neighborhood,

00:36:23.600 high cortisol.

00:36:24.700 I suppose,

00:36:26.000 logically,

00:36:27.120 if you had one

00:36:27.860 parent,

00:36:28.960 you might feel

00:36:29.640 a little more

00:36:30.500 anxious than

00:36:31.620 if you had two,

00:36:32.840 if there were,

00:36:33.340 you know,

00:36:33.540 two good parents

00:36:34.280 who were taking

00:36:34.720 care of you.

00:36:35.500 You'd feel a little

00:36:36.460 less safe.

00:36:38.620 So you can imagine

00:36:39.720 a whole host of

00:36:40.880 things that would

00:36:41.940 make you have

00:36:42.660 high cortisol

00:36:43.280 if you lived

00:36:43.940 in some urban,

00:36:45.520 high density,

00:36:46.200 high crime area.

00:36:49.620 Doesn't that

00:36:50.200 almost perfectly

00:36:51.140 explain the situation?

00:36:53.060 That the people

00:36:53.900 who are in the place

00:36:55.240 that creates

00:36:55.860 high cortisol

00:36:56.520 are the ones

00:36:58.460 who are performing

00:36:59.180 poorly.

00:37:00.480 They're not doing

00:37:01.000 as well in school.

00:37:03.080 Now, I'm not saying

00:37:03.920 that's the one thing

00:37:05.360 that's causing it.

00:37:06.520 I'm saying that

00:37:07.320 it's a really big thing.

00:37:09.380 And if we were

00:37:09.940 to only measure

00:37:10.880 the cortisol levels

00:37:12.080 in, let's say,

00:37:14.040 the entire black population

00:37:15.380 versus the entire

00:37:16.280 white population,

00:37:17.300 that would tell you

00:37:18.560 what the difference

00:37:20.820 is on people's

00:37:22.260 actual reality,

00:37:24.260 their bodies.

00:37:25.980 Because if black

00:37:27.380 people in general

00:37:28.360 are having

00:37:30.180 high cortisol

00:37:31.120 situations,

00:37:32.200 just because of

00:37:32.980 where they live

00:37:33.540 mostly,

00:37:34.800 you would expect

00:37:36.060 that would be

00:37:36.520 a huge drag

00:37:37.500 on performance.

00:37:38.920 But it would also

00:37:39.840 give you something

00:37:40.460 something to fix

00:37:41.100 or at least

00:37:42.320 something to test.

00:37:43.680 So you could test

00:37:44.560 the cortisol theory

00:37:45.600 fairly easily

00:37:46.300 by taking some

00:37:48.000 random black kids

00:37:49.440 out of an urban area,

00:37:51.200 putting them in,

00:37:52.000 let's say,

00:37:52.940 a nicer environment,

00:37:55.440 remove all the danger,

00:37:57.780 so you just put them

00:37:58.360 in a no-danger situation

00:37:59.800 where they still have

00:38:00.460 a path to success.

00:38:02.340 Just see what happens.

00:38:03.840 First of all,

00:38:04.540 see if their cortisol

00:38:05.420 levels go down.

00:38:06.420 So that's the first

00:38:08.300 thing you test.

00:38:09.740 And I think it would.

00:38:11.140 And then you test

00:38:12.020 if that seemed

00:38:14.100 to be correlated

00:38:14.780 with better

00:38:15.420 academic achievement.

00:38:17.500 Probably would.

00:38:19.780 Now, you know,

00:38:20.880 you also have

00:38:21.360 other influences

00:38:22.120 of the inner city,

00:38:23.220 drugs, etc.

00:38:26.180 So,

00:38:28.740 but I'm going to

00:38:30.360 dovetail this

00:38:31.000 into my bigger point,

00:38:32.640 which is

00:38:33.020 the big secret

00:38:35.760 of personal success

00:38:37.080 is to decouple

00:38:39.740 what is true

00:38:40.700 from what works.

00:38:43.900 And that's

00:38:44.660 totally counterintuitive,

00:38:45.940 and I think

00:38:46.380 it's one of the

00:38:47.080 biggest problems

00:38:47.680 in the world

00:38:48.280 is that that's

00:38:49.080 counterintuitive.

00:38:50.540 And it's been my,

00:38:51.360 sort of my

00:38:51.940 recent life's work,

00:38:54.260 you know,

00:38:54.420 the second half

00:38:55.040 of my life,

00:38:55.960 has been

00:38:56.520 specifically on this,

00:38:59.080 this illusion.

00:39:00.800 The illusion

00:39:01.760 that you have

00:39:02.700 to focus

00:39:03.280 on what's true

00:39:04.380 as opposed

00:39:06.060 to what works.

00:39:08.520 And here's

00:39:09.040 the perfect

00:39:09.840 example of it.

00:39:11.600 Systemic racism

00:39:12.540 is true.

00:39:15.880 Right?

00:39:16.240 Now, I think

00:39:16.820 that there's

00:39:17.720 a systemic

00:39:19.020 poverty problem

00:39:20.400 that's, you know,

00:39:22.680 the bigger part of it.

00:39:23.840 So if you're

00:39:24.340 a poor anything,

00:39:26.060 if you're just poor,

00:39:27.600 that's going

00:39:28.360 to have an effect

00:39:29.120 on your generation

00:39:30.040 and maybe the next

00:39:30.760 one too.

00:39:32.080 So,

00:39:33.440 but systemic

00:39:34.120 racism is real.

00:39:35.640 Right?

00:39:36.080 So if you say,

00:39:37.320 but what's true?

00:39:39.100 Is systemic

00:39:39.720 racism true?

00:39:40.900 Yes.

00:39:41.780 Does it have

00:39:42.360 an impact

00:39:42.860 on some people?

00:39:44.160 Yes.

00:39:46.020 So what do you

00:39:46.780 do about that?

00:39:47.620 It's true,

00:39:48.940 has an impact,

00:39:50.000 so that's where

00:39:50.580 you put your resources,

00:39:51.580 right?

00:39:52.260 That's the thing

00:39:52.920 you fix,

00:39:53.380 because it's true

00:39:54.120 and it has

00:39:55.940 a negative effect,

00:39:56.900 so you should

00:39:57.380 go fix that thing.

00:39:58.660 That makes

00:39:59.260 common sense,

00:40:00.000 right?

00:40:00.520 That's straightforward.

00:40:01.780 Here's my problem.

00:40:02.660 Here's the solution.

00:40:04.100 Everybody agrees.

00:40:05.340 The trouble is

00:40:06.080 that gets you

00:40:06.480 a terrible outcome.

00:40:09.860 Sorry.

00:40:11.020 I'm sorry.

00:40:11.560 The truth

00:40:11.920 gets you

00:40:12.260 a bad outcome.

00:40:13.520 So if you want

00:40:14.500 a good outcome,

00:40:15.880 you have to go

00:40:17.040 a different direction,

00:40:18.460 which is you

00:40:19.260 don't ignore

00:40:19.880 the truth

00:40:20.480 that systemic

00:40:21.500 racism exists.

00:40:23.660 So you don't

00:40:24.120 ignore it.

00:40:24.960 You just find

00:40:25.820 a way to slice

00:40:26.540 through it,

00:40:27.620 which is to focus

00:40:28.620 on personal

00:40:30.020 success strategies.

00:40:31.480 Make sure

00:40:32.060 that you go

00:40:32.660 to school,

00:40:33.780 even if other

00:40:34.420 people don't.

00:40:35.160 Make sure

00:40:35.600 you don't get

00:40:36.360 on drugs,

00:40:37.300 even if other

00:40:37.960 people do.

00:40:38.960 You know,

00:40:39.240 basic stuff.

00:40:40.960 Stay off

00:40:41.420 of drugs,

00:40:41.980 don't get

00:40:42.300 anybody pregnant,

00:40:43.160 don't get

00:40:43.520 pregnant too

00:40:44.500 early.

00:40:46.660 You know,

00:40:46.920 build a talent

00:40:47.560 stack,

00:40:48.540 systems over

00:40:49.280 goals,

00:40:50.040 you know,

00:40:50.180 make sure

00:40:50.500 your sleep

00:40:51.740 and your diet

00:40:52.640 are on point.

00:40:54.400 I mean,

00:40:54.700 the methods

00:40:55.680 for being successful

00:40:56.840 have always

00:40:57.700 been the same.

00:40:59.160 You know,

00:40:59.300 they improve

00:40:59.820 a little bit

00:41:00.280 over time.

00:41:01.660 But how to do

00:41:03.260 it is pretty

00:41:04.440 well defined.

00:41:05.700 People do

00:41:06.220 understand how

00:41:07.020 to be successful.

00:41:08.360 The trouble is,

00:41:09.480 if you're focusing

00:41:10.220 on what's true,

00:41:11.900 you're going to

00:41:13.480 go the wrong

00:41:13.940 direction.

00:41:15.120 You're going to

00:41:15.560 feel a victim.

00:41:17.060 Do you know

00:41:17.360 what happens

00:41:17.840 if somebody

00:41:18.360 tells you

00:41:18.900 you're a victim

00:41:19.520 and somebody

00:41:20.580 tells you

00:41:21.140 that you're

00:41:21.480 a victim

00:41:21.800 of discrimination?

00:41:22.660 It raises

00:41:25.000 your cortisol

00:41:26.940 levels.

00:41:28.180 It would be

00:41:28.600 another form

00:41:29.620 of stress.

00:41:30.980 All stress

00:41:31.620 raises your

00:41:32.420 cortisol.

00:41:33.780 So telling

00:41:34.260 people that

00:41:34.880 there is

00:41:35.220 systemic racism

00:41:36.200 and it could

00:41:36.840 hold them

00:41:37.280 back should

00:41:38.840 make them

00:41:39.960 fail.

00:41:41.360 Everything we

00:41:42.260 know about

00:41:42.660 everything says

00:41:44.200 that telling

00:41:44.640 people that

00:41:45.160 they have an

00:41:45.540 obstacle they

00:41:46.220 can't easily

00:41:47.640 get past

00:41:48.340 will make

00:41:49.700 them fail.

00:41:50.240 However,

00:41:52.760 everything we

00:41:53.500 know about

00:41:53.880 the world

00:41:54.280 suggests that

00:41:55.060 if you tell

00:41:55.440 people that

00:41:55.940 nothing can

00:41:56.500 stop them,

00:41:57.660 which is

00:41:58.160 what?

00:41:59.000 It's a lie.

00:42:00.840 That's a lie.

00:42:02.240 Of course

00:42:02.720 things can

00:42:03.200 stop you.

00:42:04.620 There's a lot

00:42:05.360 of stuff that

00:42:05.800 can stop you.

00:42:06.860 Stop you

00:42:07.360 right in your

00:42:07.740 tracks.

00:42:08.920 But if you

00:42:10.020 act as though

00:42:10.860 that's not

00:42:11.500 true,

00:42:12.260 when it's

00:42:12.740 clearly true,

00:42:14.140 your result

00:42:15.260 will be way

00:42:16.100 better.

00:42:17.440 Because you're

00:42:18.180 going to push

00:42:18.540 through the

00:42:19.000 smaller,

00:42:19.340 you're going

00:42:20.040 to push

00:42:20.320 through the

00:42:20.660 smaller problems.

00:42:21.860 You're going

00:42:22.300 to say,

00:42:23.180 well,

00:42:23.360 there's a

00:42:23.780 door in

00:42:24.260 front of

00:42:24.500 me that's

00:42:24.800 locked.

00:42:25.900 I guess

00:42:26.340 I'm done

00:42:26.760 here.

00:42:27.960 Systemic

00:42:28.360 racism.

00:42:29.440 It's a

00:42:29.840 locked door.

00:42:30.540 What can

00:42:30.860 I do?

00:42:31.720 But if you

00:42:32.260 told yourself

00:42:32.820 that nothing

00:42:33.280 could stop

00:42:33.820 you,

00:42:34.760 you'd find

00:42:35.680 the key

00:42:36.100 smith,

00:42:36.620 you'd figure

00:42:37.700 out how to

00:42:38.160 pick a

00:42:38.480 lock,

00:42:38.980 you'd go

00:42:39.600 to the

00:42:39.860 gym until

00:42:40.280 you could

00:42:40.620 kick that

00:42:41.000 door down.

00:42:42.420 And then

00:42:42.780 you would

00:42:43.060 kick it

00:42:43.360 down.

00:42:45.100 And then

00:42:45.460 there'd be

00:42:45.820 another

00:42:46.280 obstacle.

00:42:47.400 And then

00:42:47.680 you'd say,

00:42:48.020 ah,

00:42:48.280 another

00:42:49.340 just like

00:42:49.920 I expected.

00:42:51.020 And then

00:42:51.340 you dismantle

00:42:52.200 the wall

00:42:53.260 one brick

00:42:53.780 at a time,

00:42:54.700 and you

00:42:54.920 go to the

00:42:55.220 next one.

00:42:56.160 That's

00:42:56.500 life.

00:42:58.200 That's

00:42:58.580 life.

00:42:59.580 Now,

00:42:59.980 here's the

00:43:00.300 biggest problem

00:43:01.200 with systemic

00:43:01.940 racism,

00:43:02.680 in my opinion.

00:43:04.980 I was

00:43:05.720 raised to

00:43:06.240 believe that.

00:43:07.440 That's

00:43:07.740 exactly how

00:43:08.460 I was

00:43:08.720 raised,

00:43:09.240 to believe

00:43:09.900 that I

00:43:10.440 could push

00:43:10.900 through any

00:43:11.460 obstacle.

00:43:13.300 Were you?

00:43:14.620 How many

00:43:15.240 of you were

00:43:15.660 raised that

00:43:16.080 way,

00:43:16.900 to believe

00:43:17.320 that you

00:43:17.580 could push

00:43:18.020 through whatever

00:43:18.420 you needed

00:43:18.800 to push

00:43:19.160 through?

00:43:22.360 And I'll

00:43:22.940 bet you

00:43:23.200 all the

00:43:23.480 people saying

00:43:23.980 yes did

00:43:24.460 okay in

00:43:24.940 life.

00:43:25.920 You probably

00:43:26.740 raised a

00:43:27.260 family,

00:43:28.540 took care of

00:43:29.080 your retirement.

00:43:30.560 I'll bet

00:43:30.880 you did.

00:43:31.900 And I'll bet

00:43:32.540 you if you

00:43:32.900 looked at the

00:43:33.360 population of

00:43:34.060 people who

00:43:34.420 told they

00:43:34.760 couldn't

00:43:35.060 succeed because

00:43:35.840 of this

00:43:36.100 big old

00:43:36.580 racist

00:43:37.600 country that's

00:43:38.380 working against

00:43:39.000 them, I'll

00:43:39.960 bet they

00:43:40.280 didn't do

00:43:40.600 so well.

00:43:42.840 And I'm

00:43:44.200 sure there

00:43:44.620 are lots of

00:43:45.960 reasons for

00:43:46.780 the differences

00:43:47.300 in performance

00:43:48.240 across groups.

00:43:49.460 There are

00:43:49.920 lots of

00:43:50.180 reasons.

00:43:51.460 But I'll

00:43:51.720 bet if you

00:43:52.080 just remove

00:43:52.660 this one

00:43:53.480 thing, you'd

00:43:54.420 have the

00:43:54.720 biggest improvement.

00:43:58.120 If you could

00:43:58.660 just convince

00:43:59.260 people that,

00:44:00.740 yeah, systemic

00:44:01.540 racism exists,

00:44:03.140 and you can

00:44:03.760 slice through it

00:44:04.600 like it doesn't.

00:44:06.960 Is that true?

00:44:08.300 It's true enough.

00:44:09.840 It's true enough

00:44:10.760 for the purpose

00:44:11.700 that you want it

00:44:12.440 to be, which is

00:44:13.060 to inspire people

00:44:14.120 to do their

00:44:14.560 best.

00:44:14.820 But it's

00:44:15.960 not true,

00:44:16.900 true, you

00:44:18.500 know, like

00:44:18.920 true, true,

00:44:19.720 capital T,

00:44:21.080 true and, you

00:44:21.860 know, that

00:44:22.180 kind of

00:44:22.500 true, because

00:44:23.740 a rock could

00:44:24.520 fall on your

00:44:25.000 head and

00:44:25.320 kill you.

00:44:26.820 Right?

00:44:27.360 A drunk

00:44:27.820 driver could

00:44:28.440 hit you

00:44:28.760 tomorrow.

00:44:29.940 No, you

00:44:30.520 can't do

00:44:30.960 anything that

00:44:31.540 you want to

00:44:32.040 do all the

00:44:32.540 time, but

00:44:34.180 if your

00:44:34.920 mindset is

00:44:35.840 that you

00:44:36.100 can, you're

00:44:36.720 going to do

00:44:37.040 better.

00:44:38.880 So there's

00:44:39.540 no way to

00:44:40.040 separate the

00:44:41.440 fact that

00:44:44.000 personal success

00:44:45.340 requires believing

00:44:47.960 or acting as if

00:44:49.220 you believe

00:44:49.780 something that's

00:44:50.540 absolutely not

00:44:51.240 true.

00:44:52.720 You get that,

00:44:53.620 right?

00:44:53.900 Does everybody

00:44:54.260 get that?

00:44:55.500 That personal

00:44:56.100 success requires

00:44:57.360 you to accept

00:44:58.260 that which you

00:44:59.460 know not to be

00:45:00.320 true.

00:45:01.500 That you can do

00:45:02.460 anything.

00:45:03.460 You can't do

00:45:04.100 anything.

00:45:05.040 You can't flap

00:45:05.640 your wings and

00:45:06.180 fly.

00:45:08.580 But you can get

00:45:09.600 through most

00:45:10.080 problems.

00:45:10.540 You can solve

00:45:11.780 most problems.

00:45:12.480 That is true.

00:45:14.380 And I would

00:45:15.180 even go further

00:45:15.860 and say that if

00:45:16.860 you were, let's

00:45:17.360 say, a black

00:45:17.900 American, you

00:45:19.180 could take

00:45:19.660 advantage of

00:45:20.640 the various

00:45:22.360 advantages that

00:45:23.300 everybody has in

00:45:24.980 different categories.

00:45:26.380 Your personal

00:45:27.580 advantage might be

00:45:28.360 different than

00:45:28.820 mine.

00:45:30.040 So my

00:45:30.400 advantage might

00:45:31.100 be that, let's

00:45:32.280 say, I could

00:45:33.320 get a job with

00:45:34.120 a bunch of

00:45:34.540 racists if I'm

00:45:37.480 the same color,

00:45:39.060 but you

00:45:39.580 couldn't.

00:45:39.860 So there'd

00:45:40.800 be little

00:45:41.100 pockets of

00:45:41.760 things where

00:45:42.160 I've got

00:45:42.440 an advantage.

00:45:43.280 But then if

00:45:43.720 I went to a

00:45:44.260 Fortune 500

00:45:45.020 company who

00:45:46.220 was trying to

00:45:46.720 improve their

00:45:47.240 diversity and

00:45:48.560 we walk in

00:45:49.140 with the same

00:45:49.600 qualifications for

00:45:50.560 the same job,

00:45:51.940 black guy gets

00:45:52.820 it every time.

00:45:54.380 Every time.

00:45:55.800 100% of the

00:45:56.720 time the black

00:45:57.820 guy is going to

00:45:58.300 get the job

00:45:58.940 equal qualifications

00:46:01.360 because he's a

00:46:03.020 twofer.

00:46:03.820 The black guy is

00:46:04.740 a twofer, but I'm

00:46:05.600 a onefer.

00:46:06.100 I give them

00:46:07.640 just a good

00:46:08.260 employee, I

00:46:09.060 hope, but the

00:46:10.480 black guy gives

00:46:11.160 them a good

00:46:11.580 employee and

00:46:12.560 solves their

00:46:13.400 diversity problem

00:46:14.220 a little bit.

00:46:15.440 It's a twofer.

00:46:16.280 Of course they're

00:46:17.000 going to pick the

00:46:17.520 twofer.

00:46:18.440 Why wouldn't

00:46:19.040 they?

00:46:19.840 You would be an

00:46:20.600 idiot if you

00:46:21.180 didn't.

00:46:21.480 I would.

00:46:22.260 I would do the

00:46:22.860 same thing.

00:46:24.480 So everybody's

00:46:26.380 got an advantage,

00:46:27.120 you just have to

00:46:27.660 find it instead of

00:46:29.500 complaining about

00:46:30.140 the other person

00:46:30.740 having an advantage,

00:46:31.840 which they do.

00:46:32.540 All right.

00:46:37.680 Apparently this

00:46:38.480 Adam Schiff

00:46:39.380 censure, which I

00:46:40.720 was opposed to

00:46:41.520 when it included

00:46:42.260 a $16 million

00:46:43.560 fine, but I

00:46:45.520 guess it's going

00:46:45.940 to be reintroduced

00:46:46.740 without the

00:46:47.300 monetary part, so

00:46:48.540 he'll just get

00:46:49.080 censured, which I

00:46:50.320 think should be

00:46:50.800 enough to get

00:46:51.320 all of the

00:46:51.840 Republicans to

00:46:52.620 vote for it.

00:46:53.640 So I think

00:46:54.240 there's a good

00:46:54.640 chance he'll get

00:46:55.160 censured, and I

00:46:57.020 think this is a

00:46:57.860 far better outcome

00:46:58.960 because I don't

00:46:59.920 want to set that

00:47:00.620 precedent of

00:47:02.140 Congress fighting

00:47:03.140 each other.

00:47:04.500 Like, that would

00:47:05.300 just be the end

00:47:06.360 of any useful

00:47:07.980 Congress, if

00:47:09.080 they're useful at

00:47:09.700 all.

00:47:11.720 All right, here's

00:47:12.640 the latest on

00:47:13.680 Ukraine.

00:47:17.780 Ukraine is just

00:47:18.680 such a weird thing

00:47:19.440 to talk about

00:47:20.140 because there's

00:47:20.700 such a lack of

00:47:21.420 information.

00:47:23.200 But now there's

00:47:24.900 talk of giving

00:47:27.240 Ukraine what

00:47:28.120 they would call

00:47:28.680 Israel status.

00:47:29.880 Israel status.

00:47:33.280 Meaning that

00:47:35.200 with Israel, we

00:47:36.940 give them

00:47:37.520 permanent, ongoing,

00:47:40.620 regular military

00:47:41.680 assistance, just

00:47:42.740 sort of forever.

00:47:44.540 And the idea is

00:47:45.860 that instead of

00:47:46.480 coming up with

00:47:47.360 specific funding

00:47:48.640 for Ukraine for

00:47:49.640 a specific war,

00:47:51.220 that they would

00:47:51.760 become our, let's

00:47:53.240 say, military

00:47:54.160 dependent forever.

00:47:57.160 Yeah, we must

00:48:00.400 be pretty dumb.

00:48:02.820 We must be

00:48:03.860 pretty dumb.

00:48:05.580 I don't really

00:48:06.500 understand what's

00:48:08.340 going on there.

00:48:09.720 It's got to be

00:48:10.600 that the neocons

00:48:12.020 are just trying to

00:48:13.120 destroy Russia,

00:48:14.160 and they just

00:48:14.760 don't want to say

00:48:15.340 it directly.

00:48:16.420 Although they do

00:48:17.060 say it directly,

00:48:17.780 some of them.

00:48:19.720 Yeah.

00:48:20.500 The whole idea

00:48:21.380 of making Ukraine

00:48:22.300 NATO, unless,

00:48:25.160 well, let me put

00:48:25.900 it this way, if

00:48:28.280 we could destroy

00:48:29.420 Russia, then

00:48:31.260 making Ukraine

00:48:32.060 NATO might make

00:48:33.260 some sense, I

00:48:34.280 suppose, just to

00:48:35.280 keep the lid on

00:48:36.020 the thing you

00:48:36.500 destroyed.

00:48:37.720 But if you're

00:48:39.040 not going to

00:48:39.560 destroy Russia,

00:48:41.760 it doesn't seem

00:48:42.520 like a good idea

00:48:43.380 to keep, you

00:48:45.640 know, keep

00:48:46.020 attacking it with

00:48:47.020 more and more

00:48:47.520 NATO surrounding

00:48:48.420 it.

00:48:49.080 It feels like a

00:48:49.960 really bad idea.

00:48:52.100 Yeah, it feels

00:48:52.900 like the military

00:48:53.620 industrial complex

00:48:54.560 just wants another

00:48:55.380 permanent piggy bank.

00:48:58.320 And there you

00:48:59.540 go.

00:49:03.620 Make Russia the

00:49:04.700 51st state.

00:49:07.720 Yeah.

00:49:08.680 All right.

00:49:10.340 So that should be

00:49:11.380 alarming.

00:49:12.880 And then here's

00:49:14.340 the news from the

00:49:15.620 Ukraine counter

00:49:16.460 offensive.

00:49:16.880 counteroffensive.

00:49:18.020 And remember, I've

00:49:19.380 taught you that if

00:49:20.300 there are too many

00:49:21.120 explanations for a

00:49:22.460 thing, all you know

00:49:24.140 is that nobody knows

00:49:24.920 about the thing.

00:49:26.580 Listen to how many

00:49:27.320 explanations there are

00:49:28.440 of what's happening

00:49:29.140 over there.

00:49:30.340 Because the

00:49:31.160 counteroffensive is

00:49:32.140 moving very slowly,

00:49:33.560 right?

00:49:34.280 There's almost nothing

00:49:35.300 happening in terms of

00:49:36.260 change of territory.

00:49:38.720 A little bit, but

00:49:39.960 nothing important.

00:49:40.560 And so one take on

00:49:43.760 it is that what

00:49:44.420 the Ukrainians

00:49:45.140 doing is a

00:49:45.920 strategy of

00:49:47.380 testing all the

00:49:48.880 front line.

00:49:50.660 And as they're

00:49:51.260 testing, they're

00:49:52.020 learning.

00:49:53.300 And really, the

00:49:54.020 testing phase is a

00:49:55.560 legitimate military

00:49:56.960 strategy in which

00:49:58.440 you test, test, test.

00:49:59.780 And then once you

00:50:00.500 find the weak spot,

00:50:01.920 then you mass up

00:50:03.960 and you go through

00:50:04.660 the weak spot.

00:50:06.340 So is that what's

00:50:07.540 happening?

00:50:07.880 Are they probing?

00:50:08.840 Are they probing

00:50:09.900 and learning?

00:50:10.760 Maybe.

00:50:11.220 That's one possibility.

00:50:13.160 The other is that

00:50:14.300 they're waiting for

00:50:16.320 the Russians to

00:50:17.040 make mistakes.

00:50:18.600 And because the

00:50:19.260 Russian military

00:50:19.840 always makes mistakes,

00:50:21.520 all you really have

00:50:22.440 to do is get them

00:50:23.320 to react.

00:50:24.940 So simply getting

00:50:26.100 them to react will

00:50:27.560 cause them to make

00:50:28.300 mistakes, and then

00:50:29.120 you let them make

00:50:29.700 the mistakes.

00:50:31.640 Another take is

00:50:32.720 that what the

00:50:35.140 Ukrainians were doing

00:50:36.060 was trying to wipe

00:50:36.900 out the Russian

00:50:37.800 conscripts first.

00:50:39.900 Instead of going

00:50:40.820 after big assets,

00:50:42.620 that they were

00:50:43.060 going after troops,

00:50:44.540 because if they

00:50:45.180 could kill enough

00:50:45.800 of the troops,

00:50:46.520 it would have a

00:50:47.220 devastating effect

00:50:48.200 on the psychology

00:50:49.320 of the Russian

00:50:50.160 citizens, who might

00:50:51.640 try to stop the war.

00:50:53.840 The other is,

00:50:55.220 it's really all about

00:50:57.100 cutting off Crimea

00:50:58.220 and making it look

00:51:00.280 like they better

00:51:01.760 negotiate, because

00:51:02.860 that would be a big

00:51:04.380 win if they could do

00:51:05.300 it.

00:51:05.440 So, how many

00:51:08.520 billions of dollars

00:51:09.400 are we giving to

00:51:10.060 Ukraine, and our

00:51:11.600 press can't tell us

00:51:12.860 what the strategy is?

00:51:15.420 Now, are you

00:51:16.740 bothered by that?

00:51:18.400 Now, I'm not sure

00:51:19.420 that I want the press

00:51:20.340 to know, you know,

00:51:21.200 detailed military

00:51:22.160 strategy, because then

00:51:23.420 the other side would

00:51:24.260 now too.

00:51:25.380 But, don't you feel

00:51:27.580 that for our billions

00:51:28.640 and billions of dollars,

00:51:29.860 we should have some

00:51:30.540 idea what they're

00:51:31.200 trying to do over

00:51:32.060 there.

00:51:33.320 Are they really

00:51:34.160 trying to win?

00:51:35.500 Or are they trying

00:51:36.400 to just negotiate

00:51:37.540 better?

00:51:39.260 Or is the entire

00:51:40.340 thing about creating

00:51:41.620 a permanent systems

00:51:43.440 or military industrial

00:51:44.680 complex can just

00:51:45.740 feed weapons there

00:51:46.620 forever?

00:51:47.980 I have no idea

00:51:49.040 what we're doing

00:51:49.580 there.

00:51:50.500 But I know it's

00:51:51.300 expensive.

00:51:53.100 So, it just, to me,

00:51:54.220 it looks like nothing

00:51:55.320 but a military industrial

00:51:56.540 complex play that has

00:51:59.380 nothing to do with

00:52:00.120 American interests.

00:52:02.060 That's what it looks

00:52:03.140 like to me.

00:52:05.760 It's hard for me to

00:52:06.740 be in favor of this

00:52:07.720 war, because I just

00:52:08.460 don't see the reasons.

00:52:10.720 So, yeah, it looks

00:52:11.340 like a money grab to

00:52:12.220 me, which will kill

00:52:13.920 millions of people.

00:52:15.840 Just like usual.

00:52:18.260 In other words, you

00:52:20.420 can get used to

00:52:21.140 anything.

00:52:22.820 We actually watch

00:52:24.120 this happening, and

00:52:25.860 then we just go to

00:52:26.740 lunch.

00:52:28.300 There are too many

00:52:29.160 outrages.

00:52:29.660 I feel like when

00:52:31.120 the Vietnam War was

00:52:32.960 on, the total number

00:52:35.240 of outrages was not

00:52:37.820 that many.

00:52:39.200 So, you could really

00:52:40.260 get mad about this

00:52:41.440 one thing, oh, this

00:52:43.040 war.

00:52:43.680 But now we've got

00:52:44.420 everything from climate

00:52:46.000 change to, you know,

00:52:48.580 January 6th insurrection

00:52:50.080 and things that they make

00:52:52.180 up every day that are

00:52:53.620 not even real problems.

00:52:54.720 times that any one

00:52:56.660 problem, it's hard, I

00:52:58.740 can't muster enough

00:52:59.960 outrage.

00:53:01.000 We're spending billions

00:53:02.100 of dollars on a war

00:53:03.060 that's probably only

00:53:04.100 making us more, you

00:53:05.440 know, more at risk.

00:53:07.080 And I can't even get

00:53:08.540 outraged, because

00:53:09.320 everything else is

00:53:10.040 outrageous at the same

00:53:11.020 time.

00:53:12.680 It's a cortisol

00:53:13.300 industry, yeah.

00:53:15.900 Gold diffusion.

00:53:17.340 I think it's outrage

00:53:18.680 diversification.

00:53:21.120 Outrage diffusion.

00:53:21.720 Now, by the way, I

00:53:25.320 think that's a real

00:53:26.300 thing.

00:53:27.260 The outrage

00:53:28.480 dilution.

00:53:30.680 That we're just

00:53:31.380 outraged at so many

00:53:32.320 things, we can't be

00:53:33.080 outraged at anything

00:53:34.060 enough.

00:53:37.400 Yeah.

00:53:37.900 Outrage dilution?

00:53:40.200 Not saturation.

00:53:43.520 My hypnosis is

00:53:44.780 failing?

00:53:46.320 Yeah, I think it's

00:53:46.980 my problem.

00:53:47.460 Call everyone a

00:53:51.600 Nazi?

00:53:54.480 Rage diversity.

00:53:57.860 All right.

00:54:00.080 Is there anything

00:54:00.800 else happening?

00:54:01.520 It's another slow

00:54:03.260 news day, but that's

00:54:04.460 the end of my

00:54:05.040 prepared comments.

00:54:06.940 Have you noticed

00:54:07.540 that your mood has

00:54:08.700 improved, or did all

00:54:10.160 the news make you

00:54:10.840 feel sad?

00:54:12.580 How Amazon locks you

00:54:13.980 out of your house if

00:54:14.860 the driver accuses you

00:54:16.180 of racism?

00:54:16.800 Oh, can Amazon do

00:54:20.500 that?

00:54:22.060 Lock you out of your

00:54:22.840 own house?

00:54:23.980 I've never heard that

00:54:24.900 story.

00:54:26.660 I bummed you out?

00:54:34.800 Well, oh yeah,

00:54:36.820 there's a story about

00:54:37.800 Joe Biden grabbing

00:54:40.900 some side boob of

00:54:42.220 Eva Longorian.

00:54:43.360 and the video is

00:54:46.900 showing the slow

00:54:47.600 motion of her

00:54:48.760 grabbing his

00:54:49.420 hands.

00:54:49.900 He goes in for the

00:54:50.740 hug, but then he

00:54:52.360 slides his hands

00:54:54.140 past her side boob

00:54:55.260 on the way out,

00:54:56.340 and she grabs his

00:54:57.140 hands and twists his

00:54:58.340 thumb over and

00:54:59.820 hands his hands

00:55:01.140 back to him.

00:55:01.740 All right.

00:55:05.440 All right.

00:55:10.900 Black

00:55:11.340 owner locked

00:55:11.900 that by Amazon.

00:55:13.120 Wow.

00:55:17.180 Amazon locked the

00:55:18.440 smart home device?

00:55:21.180 Oh, he just locked

00:55:22.100 them out of his

00:55:22.660 devices and his...

00:55:24.240 Yeah, okay.

00:55:24.660 Yeah, I'm sure

00:55:30.260 that's happened to

00:55:30.860 her before.

00:55:31.600 That's true.

00:55:33.660 I did watch the

00:55:34.760 Black Mirror

00:55:35.220 episode.

00:55:36.200 So there's a new

00:55:36.900 episode of Black

00:55:37.820 Mirror that, let's

00:55:41.640 say, it deals with

00:55:42.940 the simulation idea,

00:55:45.520 but in a very

00:55:48.300 clever way.

00:55:50.280 You could see it

00:55:51.560 coming, but it was

00:55:53.080 still super clever.

00:55:54.660 Really good

00:55:55.300 writing.

00:55:56.040 Great show.

00:55:56.880 I watched it last

00:55:57.660 night.

00:55:57.940 It was terrific.

00:55:59.840 Best one I've

00:56:00.580 seen, actually.

00:56:01.660 Of the Black

00:56:02.780 Mirrors, it's the

00:56:03.420 best episode I've

00:56:04.240 seen.

00:56:07.420 Also good acting.

00:56:08.740 Good writing, good

00:56:09.460 acting.

00:56:09.820 It was really

00:56:10.160 well done.

00:56:12.700 All right.

00:56:15.480 Black Mirror is

00:56:16.400 on Netflix.

00:56:24.660 What about Peter

00:56:27.460 Zahin taking on

00:56:28.440 Russia invading?

00:56:29.840 I haven't catch

00:56:31.000 up with Peter

00:56:31.980 Zahin lately.

00:56:33.760 What's he saying

00:56:34.320 about...

00:56:35.520 Is he saying

00:56:36.280 that Russia is

00:56:36.980 totally, definitely

00:56:37.880 going to win?

00:56:39.800 Do you think

00:56:40.580 anybody knows

00:56:41.200 that?

00:56:42.400 Do you think

00:56:42.860 there's anybody in

00:56:43.940 the world who

00:56:45.140 can tell you where

00:56:45.980 the Ukraine thing

00:56:47.260 is going other

00:56:48.040 than it's going to

00:56:48.700 be roughly the

00:56:49.740 same now as it

00:56:51.000 will be later?

00:56:51.540 All right.

00:56:54.020 Here's my

00:56:54.580 prediction.

00:56:55.940 That neither

00:56:56.440 side can win,

00:56:58.140 and they will

00:56:58.880 have to negotiate.

00:57:01.280 Now, it might be

00:57:01.880 after Ukraine

00:57:03.020 maybe puts some

00:57:05.060 threat on Crimea.

00:57:07.040 Because some

00:57:08.020 people are saying

00:57:08.760 that Putin can't

00:57:10.740 risk losing

00:57:11.540 Crimea.

00:57:13.180 So if it comes

00:57:14.200 down to it looks

00:57:14.960 like they do have

00:57:15.740 a lock on taking

00:57:16.960 Crimea back,

00:57:18.300 that Putin will

00:57:18.960 get flexible in

00:57:20.720 his negotiating.

00:57:21.540 because if he

00:57:22.480 could negotiate

00:57:23.080 to keep Crimea,

00:57:24.520 he can claim

00:57:25.660 something good

00:57:27.020 happened.

00:57:27.540 At least he

00:57:27.940 kept Crimea.

00:57:29.840 But I don't

00:57:31.400 see any way

00:57:31.980 that the war

00:57:35.500 ends in anything

00:57:36.460 that looks like

00:57:37.000 a victory.

00:57:38.500 It has to turn

00:57:39.740 into either a

00:57:40.640 permanent war

00:57:41.360 or a DMZ

00:57:42.180 or a negotiated

00:57:43.880 settlement.

00:57:44.520 I think Putin's

00:57:45.640 too smart to have

00:57:46.380 a permanent DMZ.

00:57:48.340 I think nobody

00:57:49.180 wins with that.

00:57:50.220 So I think he

00:57:50.740 would negotiate.

00:57:51.540 Because I think

00:57:52.500 he's not crazy.

00:57:54.060 Do you remember

00:57:54.540 in the early

00:57:55.560 part of the war

00:57:56.260 when all the

00:57:57.540 propaganda told

00:57:58.440 us that Putin

00:57:59.840 was sick

00:58:00.760 and maybe crazy?

00:58:02.920 Do you remember

00:58:03.600 that?

00:58:05.560 And from

00:58:06.960 today's perspective,

00:58:08.380 isn't that really

00:58:09.560 obvious that you

00:58:10.560 were being

00:58:10.920 propagandized by

00:58:11.980 your own country?

00:58:14.020 That was such

00:58:14.940 propaganda.

00:58:16.400 It doesn't look

00:58:17.000 like any of that

00:58:17.740 was true or even

00:58:18.520 a little bit

00:58:19.000 true.

00:58:21.140 Yeah, I said

00:58:22.340 it too,

00:58:22.700 probably.

00:58:23.580 But what it

00:58:26.820 looks like is

00:58:28.060 that now we

00:58:28.620 have a better

00:58:29.100 understanding of

00:58:30.020 how the Ukraine

00:58:30.820 thing emerged.

00:58:33.140 It looks like

00:58:34.180 Putin was pushed

00:58:35.060 into his position

00:58:36.140 by NATO.

00:58:39.720 And it looks

00:58:40.480 like he was

00:58:40.980 acting somewhat

00:58:42.520 rationally the

00:58:43.440 entire time.

00:58:44.220 And I'm not

00:58:45.640 sure we were.

00:58:47.200 If you're going

00:58:47.880 to argue who

00:58:48.420 was being

00:58:48.840 irrational, it

00:58:49.680 looked like my

00:58:51.020 team.

00:58:51.780 It looked like my

00:58:52.640 team was the

00:58:53.140 irrational ones.

00:58:54.440 That's what it

00:58:54.840 looks like.

00:58:55.580 Now, that didn't

00:58:56.160 look like that in

00:58:57.020 the beginning.

00:58:58.020 In the beginning,

00:58:58.800 it looked like

00:58:59.300 Putin all bad.

00:59:00.920 Putin bad,

00:59:01.700 Putin bad.

00:59:02.840 Putin crazy.

00:59:04.140 He'll use his

00:59:04.840 nukes.

00:59:06.640 Yeah.

00:59:07.200 None of that

00:59:07.820 was true.

00:59:09.720 Basically, the

00:59:10.560 Democrats did to

00:59:11.540 Putin what they

00:59:12.240 did to Trump,

00:59:12.940 which is they

00:59:14.420 accused Putin of

00:59:15.600 their own crimes,

00:59:16.940 of being the

00:59:17.560 aggressors.

00:59:18.680 It's exactly what

00:59:19.460 they did to Trump.

00:59:20.580 Exactly the same

00:59:21.740 thing.

00:59:24.500 You were told.

00:59:27.080 Can we do the

00:59:27.960 thing where you

00:59:28.680 pretend that I was

00:59:29.560 wrong and you

00:59:30.120 told me the right

00:59:31.120 thing all along,

00:59:32.080 which never

00:59:32.500 happened?

00:59:33.520 We're going to

00:59:34.020 pretend that,

00:59:34.580 right?

00:59:35.820 Would it help

00:59:36.580 you if I give

00:59:37.080 you a husband

00:59:37.640 apology and

00:59:38.880 pretend that I

00:59:39.680 didn't know that

00:59:40.660 and that you

00:59:41.880 told me and

00:59:42.840 that now I'm

00:59:43.380 just figuring

00:59:43.920 it out?

00:59:44.620 Can we do

00:59:45.060 that?

00:59:45.880 Let's do a

00:59:46.500 husband apology

00:59:47.180 because the

00:59:48.180 people on

00:59:48.580 YouTube are

00:59:50.940 in sort of a

00:59:51.440 different head

00:59:51.840 space.

00:59:52.640 I'd like to

00:59:53.200 apologize for

00:59:54.940 ever having

00:59:55.660 thought that

00:59:56.500 Putin was

00:59:58.120 insane and

00:59:59.620 that it was

01:00:00.140 all his fault.

01:00:01.620 So you have

01:00:02.720 my apology.

01:00:03.860 I'm sorry,

01:00:04.540 honey, if it

01:00:06.220 made you feel

01:00:06.680 bad.

01:00:07.320 I didn't mean

01:00:08.040 that.

01:00:08.360 And I will

01:00:09.260 buy you a

01:00:09.760 nice diamond.

01:00:12.020 Are we

01:00:12.560 good now?

01:00:14.220 Husband

01:00:14.620 apology, given

01:00:16.500 and accepted.

01:00:18.240 All right.

01:00:20.020 I'll tell you,

01:00:20.920 if you don't

01:00:21.620 think husband

01:00:22.160 apologies should

01:00:23.140 be used in

01:00:23.740 politics, you're

01:00:24.600 wrong.

01:00:25.120 They work

01:00:25.520 every time.

01:00:28.400 Yeah, if you

01:00:28.900 feel better now,

01:00:29.620 good.

01:00:31.640 All right.

01:00:32.700 That's all for now.

01:00:33.600 YouTube, talk to

01:00:34.960 you tomorrow.

01:00:35.360 Bye for now.

01:00:38.360 Bye for now.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - June 17, 2023

Episode 2142 Scott Adams： Trump & Truth, Systemic Racism Cortisol Theory, Schiff Censure, AI Debates

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