Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2164 Scott Adams： Our Data Is Wrong, Our Leaders Are Lying But We Can Compensate By Guessing

00:00:00.000 Oh, my God. YouTube, you don't know this. I've been talking to the Locos platform,

00:00:07.700 but literally everything has gone wrong this morning. In the last 10 minutes, I've had five

00:00:12.440 major device failures. You know, I had to grab my device from another room, and I'm firing up

00:00:18.820 different iPads. And I thought, finally, finally, I've got everything working. You know, on the

00:00:27.200 Locos platform, we have now another problem, just as I was talking. So two since I signed on.

00:00:35.000 I don't know how to go private on Locos, because the interface has changed. So if you would do me

00:00:41.000 a favor during the broadcast, don't ask me to go private. Please don't ask, because there's no

00:00:46.800 place on this interface that has that option. At least I can see. So I've got a new interface right

00:00:53.180 now. So don't ask. However, you know how the first part of the show, I always open a drawer

00:00:59.520 and take out the little thing that reads my toast? The drawer wouldn't open, because there's

00:01:08.920 something stuck in the drawer of all the things. All right, Matt, you get to go away. First

00:01:16.940 asshole down. Goodbye. Anybody else want to go away? Let's start this first. Let's start by just 1.00

00:01:25.480 blocking people. It's going to be that kind of a day. All right, let's reset. Reset. I'm going to

00:01:33.580 open this drawer, and I'm going to take out that piece of paper. You ready? All right.

00:01:38.920 Why was there a roll of toilet paper in the drawer? There's a story behind it.

00:01:54.780 Now, what I normally do, normally I read the simultaneous sip. But today,

00:02:01.700 today, the simultaneous sip will be done by AI. So AI, this is courtesy of the Twitter

00:02:10.340 account, Prince of Fakes, has made a little extra simultaneous sip by an AI. Now, the AI

00:02:18.620 does not stop where I stop with just a few items that you can sip out of. It has added

00:02:24.260 many items that you can sip out of. So now, thanks to the HeyGen app and Prince of Fakes.

00:02:38.900 All you need is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tankard, a chalice or stein, a canteen, a jug,

00:02:43.980 a flask, a vessel of any kind, a thermos, a goblet, a grail or a pint, a beaker, a flask or a jar,

00:02:49.660 a pitcher, a tumbler, a pail or a bowl, a canister filled from afar, a coffee pot, demitasse or shot

00:02:55.260 glass, an urn from your grandmother's place, a bottle, a sippy cup, a drinking horn, a boot from

00:03:00.400 the beer drinking race, a wineskin, an oil drum, a soup pot, a coconut hollowed and dried, a milk

00:03:06.240 carton, a new or a ladle, a hip flask for when you're outside. Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:03:10.560 I like coffee. That's my brew. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit.

00:03:15.400 That's true. The thing that makes everything better, it's a practice both old and new. It's called

00:03:19.480 The Simultaneous Sip and it happens now on cue. Go. All you need is a cup or a mug or a glass,

00:03:25.180 a tankard, a chalice or stein, a canteen. Shut up, AI me. Ah. All right, well, that was a little 0.99

00:03:33.700 different. A little bit different. But if you didn't notice, I mean, it's hard to tell. So you

00:03:41.540 could probably tell it was AI. But oh my God, is it close now. It's really close.

00:03:49.480 Yeah, anyway. So there's one other thing I was going to show you. Did you see the dust

00:03:55.180 dust up about Jonah Hill? Anybody see that? Jonah Hill. And I'll bet, yes, I have a technical

00:04:06.660 problem. So we'll be skipping this part of the presentation to the seventh technical problem

00:04:13.000 this morning. Seven technical problems, 10 minutes. It's a new record. All right, so we won't be talking

00:04:19.500 about that story. But we will be talking about U.S. oil production's up, according to the Wall Street

00:04:25.400 Journal. So sort of quietly, without noticing, oil production is zooming. So that's the whole story.

00:04:35.840 I mean, it's good for everything. So oil production way up in the United States, specifically the United

00:04:41.280 States. So that's all good. Remember I told you yesterday that we can't tell if it's getting warmer

00:04:50.440 or cooler. But we also can't tell if if Russia is running out of weapons before Ukraine is. Just the most 0.55

00:05:00.680 basic things. You know, was the election rigged or not rigged? Did the vaccination hurt us more than it helped

00:05:10.840 us? Is Ukraine winning or losing? Is the earth warming or cooling? Pretty basic questions. Is inflation

00:05:21.780 coming down or it's going to be with us forever? Are we in a recession or not? These are the most basic

00:05:29.580 questions about our reality. And we don't agree. We're not even close. Not even close to agreeing.

00:05:37.160 So what happens to us when we don't agree on the biggest facts? I'm not sure if it makes any

00:05:42.800 difference. I'm not sure if we've ever known anything. Do you ever wonder if we've ever known

00:05:50.060 anything? My current view is that we were always, we were dumber before, but we didn't know it. 0.94

00:05:58.300 I think we're way smarter now. But the problem is we're smart enough to know what we don't know, 0.84

00:06:05.560 which is everything that we're told by anybody who's a professional. It's just the weirdest,

00:06:11.860 weirdest world that we finally know we don't know anything. It's sort of an uncomfortable place to be.

00:06:17.580 But there we are. So Steve Malloy has an article in the Wall Street Journal. And as you know, the news

00:06:24.740 has been reporting it's the hottest two days in July or something like that. You knew there would be

00:06:31.200 summer stories about it's too hot because of climate change. And Steve Malloy goes through all the problems

00:06:39.240 with how do you measure such a thing. Do you think anybody can measure the actual temperature of the

00:06:45.460 Earth? Like even once, even once. Do you think that's a thing? And we've been told by our experts that

00:06:55.580 they can measure the temperature of the Earth. Sure, sure. How exactly? Is it because the few places

00:07:05.800 that they have thermometers represents the rest of the world? Do you think that the places where the

00:07:14.140 thermometers are, that gets you a good average? Or does it just tell you that those thermometers have

00:07:20.240 changed? And do you know that a whole bunch of the thermometers are not considered to be accurate?

00:07:26.500 And did you know that we didn't actually have satellites measuring the air 125,000 years ago?

00:07:32.000 Almost everything about the way we measure temperature is ridiculous. So to imagine that

00:07:40.580 we even know if it's going up or down, we don't know. We don't know that. But we're pretty sure that

00:07:47.160 somebody, somebody says they know. Yeah, the most basic question, we really don't know.

00:07:54.980 Well, the Biden administration is pushing back on the court that said that the government can't

00:08:01.520 coerce or push the social media companies to censor. But the Biden administration thinks that's very,

00:08:08.920 very important that they still have that ability. Now, we call it censoring. I'm sure they would call

00:08:15.740 it giving good information to the public and making sure we don't have any bad information. But how does

00:08:23.180 that work out? It's never really worked out, has it? Now, let me ask you this philosophical question.

00:08:29.720 If you had a friend, if you had a friend, that's not the hypothetical part, I'm going to guess you have

00:08:35.520 a friend. If you had a friend, and you had some knowledge that would definitely make that friend

00:08:41.700 less happy and maybe even less safe. But it's the truth. Would you tell them? You're pretty sure it will

00:08:50.680 hurt your friend. There's no upside. Would you tell them? Yes, yes, yes. Yes, yes. Why would you do it?

00:08:57.120 What would be the point? Why would you hurt your friend so that you can feel good about your truth?

00:09:04.460 How is that ethical or moral? That you would hurt a friend for no benefit to the friend.

00:09:11.700 The only benefit would be to you because you feel like you need to talk. That's not the most selfish,

00:09:17.660 fucked up thing you've ever done in your life. That's actually something you think you're proud of, 0.99

00:09:21.760 and you'd be good with that. You told them the truth, you hurt them permanently, and they can't

00:09:28.860 recover. I mean, they'll always have that awfulness. And nobody got anything except you felt a little

00:09:35.540 bit better. So you felt a little bit better about yourself. So for your selfish, short-term benefit,

00:09:41.980 you would destroy your good friend. And most people think that that's better than not telling them

00:09:47.920 the truth. So I'm not sure there's a right answer here, because I like the truth. The truth is kind

00:09:58.520 of cool. But I don't like hurting friends. That's not cool. So it's sort of a you-can't-have-both-things

00:10:06.280 situation. You can't have your cake and eat it too, even though some would say the point of having a cake

00:10:11.740 cake is eating it too. Yeah, there's no right answer. There just isn't. It's just one of those

00:10:20.860 things, you just got to suck it up. You either have to, you have to either be okay with the fact

00:10:24.980 that you would hurt your friend for no benefit to your friend. If you're okay with that, I'm not

00:10:31.160 going to complain. Or you're, you have, you care more about your friend than you do about your own

00:10:37.140 need to get the truth out. And I think I'd want my friend to lie to me. Now, hypotheticals are always

00:10:48.220 hard. But if, if it's truly a situation where I'll never, it'll never make any difference, it'll just

00:10:56.080 hurt me if I hear the truth, I really don't want to know that truth. How is that going to help me?

00:11:02.220 Anyway, just thought I'd ask. So the Biden administration thinks it wants to be responsible

00:11:07.760 for protecting you by telling you what's true and preventing you from seeing other things

00:11:14.820 that they might think are untrue, but other people think are true.

00:11:20.580 So I guess when it comes to government, that's a lot different than you and your friend.

00:11:25.340 When it comes to government, the government has to tell us. Would you agree with that? If we take

00:11:31.440 another domain of two friends, and you take it into the domain of a government and a public,

00:11:38.260 in that situation, the government has to tell you the truth. They just have to. That's, you don't,

00:11:44.180 they don't get to lie for your benefit. Now, we did see the government do exactly that.

00:11:51.480 Dr. Fauci told us that, that those masks, even the N95s would make no difference. But he was lying.

00:11:59.600 Now, that's complicated by the fact that his lie was actually true.

00:12:06.680 So he tried to lie, but he's so bad at, I don't know, I won't say it that way. He tried to lie,

00:12:15.020 but he accidentally was accurate that the masks wouldn't help you. I mean, overall, they wouldn't

00:12:19.820 help you. You know, I've argued that there has to be some small, you know, some small change,

00:12:25.340 but it doesn't show up in any of the big numbers. So obviously, the masks were a waste of time for

00:12:30.020 the public. So we've seen our government try to lie to us for our benefit. It didn't work out.

00:12:37.940 But it's a real thing. So no, I don't think I want our government to lie to us.

00:12:43.060 And let me make sure I'm getting your temperature correct. If your government knew that telling you

00:12:51.400 the truth would cause a panic, you'd still be in favor of it, right? If you knew it would cause a

00:12:57.740 panic, you'd still be in favor? Most people say yes. Oh, I see some no's. Okay, some no's.

00:13:05.440 Yeah. See, you know, here's something I often say. If you took a hundred people randomly from the

00:13:15.560 public, including from this group, and you said to them, hey, I got a deal for you. You can be one

00:13:22.260 of the elite now. You go, what? Really? I go, yeah, yeah. Yeah, we're going to pick you from the public,

00:13:29.240 and you get to be one of the elite. You get to make all the big decisions.

00:13:34.660 So you'll no longer be the recipient of the decisions from above. You get to make them.

00:13:41.160 Your responsibility for the, you know, the big decisions. Go. How many people would be happy

00:13:48.040 with that situation? Even though you told them they'd be rich and famous. Well, you'd be rich and

00:13:53.280 famous. You're one of the elites, but you have to make all the hard decisions because that's what the

00:13:58.200 elites do. Most people would say no. The vast majority of people would say, ah, I like the

00:14:05.980 money part, but can I have the money without the responsibility? No. No, you can't. You do have

00:14:12.340 to make the decisions. Somebody does. It's going to be somebody in charge. Most people don't want to.

00:14:19.880 Do not want to. So be happy that you'll never have to decide whether to cause a panic and kill

00:14:25.340 people for sure, just so you can be honest. Just be really glad you don't have to make that decision

00:14:32.760 because we're not equipped for it. We just don't have the capability. All right. Eric Schmidt,

00:14:41.860 who had been CEO of Google, is talking about the drone aspect of the Ukraine war. And he's saying now

00:14:49.460 what I said at the beginning of the war that the drones, the drone seems to be making the difference

00:14:55.360 because there's a 10 to 1 difference in artillery. Apparently the Russians have a 10 to 1 artillery

00:15:03.040 advantage. But the Ukrainians are being pretty good with their drones. And so it looks like one of the 0.95

00:15:14.940 things I was wondering is about the anti-drone defense. According to Eric Schmidt, the Ukrainians

00:15:20.420 are losing as many as 10,000 drones a month. The Ukrainians are losing 10,000 drones per month.

00:15:29.280 That's a lot of drones. You know, they're mostly the smallest ones. But I don't know how many they're

00:15:36.180 making. You know, how many are being delivered to them? Probably more than 10,000. But apparently the

00:15:43.080 Russian army is good at knocking out the GPS guidance. So they do have electronics that will

00:15:52.960 knock out the drones. So that's partly why they're getting so many. But apparently now they're

00:15:58.340 introducing drones that don't need GPS and can't be jammed. Yeah, the latest models prevent jamming

00:16:09.100 and operate without GPS guidance. Huh. What do they do if they don't have GPS guidance?

00:16:19.980 I'm right again. Yes, I'm right again. So Biden apparently said we're running out of ammunition

00:16:27.340 when asked about why we would give these cluster munitions, which have been called a war crime.

00:16:35.040 I think even Biden called these weapons a war crime. But we're going to give these to the Ukrainians, 1.00

00:16:42.460 which will be devastating to their own public later and won't make any difference to the war

00:16:47.480 probably. But the reason that Biden gave just flippantly as he was walking by is that we were

00:16:53.220 running out of ammunition. Do you think we're running out of ammunition?

00:16:57.640 I think what they meant is artillery shells. So they were looking for something that would be,

00:17:04.060 you know, a rough substitute for artillery shells, and we just didn't have enough. Now that doesn't

00:17:10.100 mean that the US doesn't have any. It means that we don't have any extra. But I feel like having extra

00:17:17.820 would be a good thing sometimes. So there you go. It's a it's a drone war. I don't see any chance

00:17:27.220 the Ukrainians will break through. Not really. Do you? Does anybody think the Ukrainian counter 0.99

00:17:33.560 offensive is going to is going to break through and make a big difference? At the moment, it doesn't

00:17:40.240 look like it. It looks like there's status quo. So we'll wait for somebody who can actually negotiate

00:17:48.560 a deal. I just, I just read a story about Donald Trump in the 80s, negotiating deals with the mafia.

00:17:59.420 And when I saw the article, I thought, oh, oh, the story is going to be that he did some awful thing

00:18:07.200 with the mafia, right? That's what you expect. And instead, it turns out it's just a mafia guy that

00:18:12.900 says Trump is a good negotiator. Apparently, Trump negotiated with the mafia, just like he

00:18:20.360 negotiated with everybody else. And not only that, but they kind of respected him for being a tough

00:18:25.860 negotiator. So there was one story that they told, where he was going to buy some property that was

00:18:35.000 adjacent to one of his casinos, when he had casinos. And the price was $8 million. He shows up to the deal

00:18:41.880 and says he only has seven. And they're like, well, what are we going to do now? He says, I only have

00:18:47.840 seven. So it's seven or there's no deal. So they wanted eight. He only said he'd give him seven.

00:18:54.400 And they decided to solve it with a coin flip. So they flipped a coin and Trump won and he saved a

00:19:02.400 million dollars. And the mafia guy confirms that that actually happened. He actually saved a million

00:19:08.260 dollars on a coin flip. Now, when Trump says he's a good negotiator, it doesn't always mean he tells

00:19:16.640 the truth during his negotiations, right? Because I'm sure he had eight million dollars. But he does

00:19:23.400 do some innovative things. He causes people so much consternation that they just want it to be over

00:19:30.460 with. And they're like, all right, I'll just want this to be over with. Seven million is fine.

00:19:34.640 He just bothers them until they settle. It works. Apparently it works. But it was interesting

00:19:43.300 that that article did not include any sketchy activities by Trump himself. It was actually

00:19:49.860 a story about Trump dealing with the mafia. And there was nothing that Trump did wrong in the story.

00:19:55.780 Anyway, that's interesting. Did you see the video of Trump attending the UFC fight

00:20:03.620 with Dana White? And the crowd just went crazy for him. All right, he's shaking hands with Joe

00:20:11.140 Rogan. One of the fighters gets out of the ring to shake hands with him. I mean, he was just

00:20:15.820 walking it like a superstar. Don't ask me to go private again. You may have joined recently.

00:20:25.120 Don't ask. Today's not the day to ask. I'll tell you why later.

00:20:33.620 Yeah, Rogan shaked his hand. Rogan does seem, really? You're serious? You're not really going

00:20:40.060 to keep going and saying that, are you? I'm just going to turn it off if you do. Because it's

00:20:47.540 just too disruptive. Honestly, I'm just going to turn off the feed if you do that again. All right.

00:20:53.260 All right. Yeah, that's it. Exactly. You get to go away, too. Goodbye. All right. What else

00:21:06.500 is going on? I feel like the news is not as fun today. It's all news like running out of ammunition.

00:21:14.600 That's like the least fun news you could have. Well, we're running out of ammunition.

00:21:24.200 So I saw Jonathan Turley talking about Ketunji Jackson, the new Supreme Court justice. And

00:21:32.480 she was one of the dissenters on the Supreme Court's decision on affirmative action. And in

00:21:40.460 her dissent, she said that for high-risk black newborns, having a black physician more than

00:21:49.500 doubles the likelihood that the baby will live and not die. Do you believe that? Now, the

00:21:55.260 context was, you want more black doctors because black doctors will do a better job of keeping 0.99

00:22:02.060 black babies alive. Now, that was based on a study. She didn't make it up. It's not something 0.92

00:22:09.060 she made up. It was based on a study. But here's something I learned from Jonathan Turley. This

00:22:15.660 will make your head explode. In the Supreme Court, if somebody introduces a study as part

00:22:23.200 of their argument, the study is entered into the record. But the Supreme Court doesn't have

00:22:29.740 any facility for checking if the study is accurate or if it's valid. So the Supreme Court is a record

00:22:36.820 of a lot of studies that have been entered into the arguments without pushback. No pushback.

00:22:45.400 Now, keep in mind that we know that at least 50% of all studies are not reproducible, meaning they're

00:22:51.940 not true. They don't actually tell you something about the real world. 50%. Yet 100% of everything

00:22:59.900 that's offered to the Supreme Court just becomes part of the record. Because the Supreme Court doesn't

00:23:06.080 have the facility to say, hey, we're going to check out that data, right? So they're not judging the

00:23:12.960 quality of your study. They're just saying, well, you said it. Here's the record of you saying it.

00:23:19.360 We'll put it in the record. That's it. There's actually, our system has no way to know that some

00:23:26.960 study introduced to the process is real or not. So when Justice Ketanji Jackson was saying that

00:23:37.980 there was some study that apparently said that black physicians do better with black babies,

00:23:44.680 even the people who did the study have since retracted it. So there actually is no study.

00:23:51.800 Or let's say that the people who put forth that argument have decided that the data was 0.93

00:23:58.140 garbage. So here's a Supreme Court justice who, in her dissenting decision, hugely important 0.84

00:24:07.660 case, cites a piece of science that just wasn't even real. It wasn't real. And even the people

00:24:15.460 who presented it originally say it's not real. And that was part of the now American record

00:24:22.240 that our Supreme Court used a study that wasn't even real to make an argument.

00:24:29.760 So that's the problem. Anyway, the larger point is not about Justice Jackson, because apparently

00:24:37.340 this has happened before. It's not the first time somebody referred to a study that had been

00:24:43.780 presented to the Supreme Court that wasn't based on anything real. So that's a big problem.

00:24:50.620 They're relying on things that aren't real, and they don't have a way to check.

00:24:56.000 What good is the Supreme Court if you can just give them a fake study and they don't know if it's real?

00:25:04.340 Doesn't that? Because if, in fact, let's say it was true. Let's say there was a study that said

00:25:10.660 that all the black babies will die if you don't have a black doctor, or it's just something crazy. 0.99

00:25:19.820 If the justices saw that that was a real study and it had scientists listed on it and all that stuff, 0.99

00:25:26.920 wouldn't it influence their decision? Can you just make up stuff and show it to the Supreme Court,

00:25:32.300 and they don't have a way to check, so they just sort of incorporate it as, well, maybe.

00:25:36.580 It may be true. That's a bad situation.

00:25:42.760 All right. Well, it seems to me that there wasn't much else going on except this

00:25:48.420 Jonah Hill thing, which I swear to God I'm going to read to you, because if you're not following it,

00:25:55.820 Jonah Hill sent a text message to his girlfriend,

00:25:59.320 in which he, I guess he put down some, what would you call it, requirements or some red lines,

00:26:12.060 you know, he said what he would not be willing to put up with.

00:26:15.060 So let's see if we can find Jonah Hill's thing here so I can read it to you,

00:26:19.500 because I want to see if you think he's being reasonable.

00:26:21.480 There were differences of opinion.

00:26:27.940 Jonah Hill texts. All right. This should pop right up. Here we go.

00:26:31.780 So here's something Jonah Hill sent to his girlfriend.

00:26:35.680 And you get to judge whether he was being unreasonable or was she being unreasonable.

00:26:43.120 All right. So here's what Jonah Hill actor said to his girlfriend.

00:26:47.160 Plain and simple. And I think we, I think you should know she's a professional surfer

00:26:53.140 and maybe a model or something. But anyway, so he says, if you need,

00:26:59.220 these are the things he says, if you need, that he's not the right partner for you, right?

00:27:03.720 If you need surfing with men,

00:27:07.300 boundary lists, inappropriate friendships with men.

00:27:11.120 If you need to model, if you need to post pictures of yourself in the bathing suit,

00:27:18.180 if you need to post sexual pictures, if you need friendships with women who are in unstable places

00:27:24.140 and from your wild recent past beyond getting a lunch or coffee or something respectful,

00:27:29.100 then I'm not, not the right partner for you.

00:27:31.700 Now, this next part is important to the message

00:27:35.020 because he's being very respectful. And this last part, he says,

00:27:40.200 I'm not the right partner for you. If, if you wanted to do those things,

00:27:43.980 if these things bring you to a place of happiness, I support it.

00:27:47.480 And there will be no hard feelings. These are my boundaries for romantic partnership.

00:27:52.440 My boundaries with you based on the way that these actions have her, our trust.

00:27:56.320 So it's based on a little bit of their past, but he's also saying, well, here's my minimum.

00:28:02.560 If you can't reach the minimum, we should not be in a relationship.

00:28:05.860 Let's, let's take a vote. How many say that Jonah Hill is being reasonable?

00:28:13.860 Let's say reasonable. Is it being reasonable?

00:28:21.440 I'm seeing almost, is everybody saying yes?

00:28:24.320 I feel like everybody's saying yes. I see a no.

00:28:28.120 Okay, I do see some no's.

00:28:29.440 Now, I did see online one pundit saying that Jonah Hill is obviously a narcissist.

00:28:39.700 He's a controlling narcissist.

00:28:42.440 And that he's a, doesn't have confidence in his ability to keep a hot woman. 0.94

00:28:48.520 Because, you know, he has low self-esteem or something.

00:28:53.580 Do you think that's the problem, that he has low self-esteem?

00:28:56.420 I mean, I don't know if he does or not.

00:29:01.640 But, does he look like a narcissist to you?

00:29:05.900 Does, I don't know if he's a, you know, who knows who is and who is not.

00:29:09.820 But, I don't see it.

00:29:12.180 I don't see that at all.

00:29:14.700 I do see that the person who called him a narcissist was projecting.

00:29:18.600 Where somebody called him, I'm not going to name names, but somebody called him a narcissist online and, you know, gave reasons.

00:29:27.880 And I thought, my God, that looks like a classic projection.

00:29:32.080 You know, that's what a narcissist does.

00:29:34.500 But, Jonah Hill wasn't projecting.

00:29:37.320 Where was he projecting?

00:29:38.880 He was just saying what his minimum was.

00:29:40.780 If she doesn't like it, they go their own ways.

00:29:46.340 I didn't see a threat.

00:29:48.440 I didn't see him belittling her.

00:29:51.880 Was he belittling her?

00:29:54.280 You know, he wasn't bragging.

00:29:57.520 I don't, I didn't see anything narcissistic about it at all.

00:30:00.920 Now, you say it's controlling.

00:30:02.960 Is it controlling to say what your minimum standard is?

00:30:07.500 Is that controlling?

00:30:08.560 I mean, it could be.

00:30:11.760 You can see that it could be.

00:30:13.940 But is it a control that's inappropriate?

00:30:16.720 I would say it's controlling because he wants to control his own life and his own happiness.

00:30:21.980 Is that a problem?

00:30:24.900 I can be pretty controlling.

00:30:28.300 You know, if you put me in the right context, I'm controlling as hell.

00:30:32.380 Because I need to control my own safety and, you know, well-being.

00:30:36.000 But if you put me in a situation where there's no risk to me, I'm not controlling at all.

00:30:41.720 Do what you want to do.

00:30:46.160 Yeah.

00:30:47.020 So I guess here's my, I guess my bottom line on him is two people can make any personal agreement they want.

00:30:56.020 It's kind of none of our business.

00:30:57.480 But since it was a big headline and it was trending, I thought I'd weigh in.

00:31:02.360 But I think I'm going to take Jonah Hill's side.

00:31:06.020 Not that I would agree necessarily with his standards, but I agree 100% that he can have them.

00:31:12.600 He can certainly have standards.

00:31:13.840 And I would consider him one of the best communicators I've seen for somebody who's in a relationship.

00:31:20.100 That was pretty good communicating, I thought.

00:31:24.440 Yeah.

00:31:26.880 She's his ex?

00:31:29.720 What do you mean?

00:31:31.100 It's not his ex.

00:31:35.880 How did the text leak?

00:31:37.580 Well, I assume from her, but I don't know.

00:31:41.820 Is it still gossip?

00:31:42.620 Well, I don't know.

00:31:44.040 It's a text message.

00:31:48.120 Well, so here's the other thing that I should warn you about.

00:31:53.060 All news about public figures is fake.

00:31:56.900 All of it.

00:31:58.900 You know that, right?

00:32:00.440 So whatever it is we come to believe about Jonah Hill, you couldn't possibly know what's really going on in that situation.

00:32:09.520 It is not knowable by us.

00:32:11.120 You don't know who did what to whom, how much is unsaid.

00:32:15.300 You don't know any of that.

00:32:16.960 So I think it would be ridiculous to judge those two people based on what little we know about them.

00:32:24.100 So I would just say, rather than say it's about Jonah Hill, I'd rather say, is it appropriate, just a general question, to state your specifications and say, this is my, you've got to have this.

00:32:38.980 I think it's appropriate.

00:32:40.980 So I won't make it about those two, because I think we don't really know what their situation is.

00:32:46.220 But as a general rule, it makes sense.

00:32:48.820 He needs to procreate.

00:32:58.460 All right, is there any news going on today that I don't know about?

00:33:03.040 I will, let me tell you this.

00:33:04.680 I don't know if this is the zeitgeist or it's just me, and maybe it's just you two.

00:33:12.100 But does it seem to you that nearly all of Trump's negatives have been, they've vanished?

00:33:20.280 Is that my imagination?

00:33:25.000 Because he's kind of, you know, the legal process has wrung everything it can wring out of him, right?

00:33:34.720 There's nothing that would happen with, let's say, a woman making an accusation that would make any difference at this point.

00:33:41.680 So I think he's free of all woman accusations that only played that wrong.

00:33:47.080 I think people are starting to think the election wasn't fair, or they don't know if they can tell one way or the other.

00:33:55.380 Oh, I wonder if my page didn't print out.

00:33:59.480 So there's an argument that I made on Twitter that, in my opinion, stops the discussion about the election denial.

00:34:11.520 And I saw somebody else tweeting it around today.

00:34:13.820 And it goes like this.

00:34:17.080 If the election is not 100% auditable, how can anybody know if it was fair?

00:34:24.820 Right?

00:34:25.380 You didn't check the code.

00:34:27.080 You know, we don't know if anybody threw away any ballots before they were counted.

00:34:33.460 How would you know?

00:34:34.620 How would you know if anybody threw away a box of ballots?

00:34:38.700 Because they were from a zip code that was going to vote one way or another.

00:34:42.220 How would you know?

00:34:42.900 Is there any way to know?

00:34:44.880 I don't think so.

00:34:47.460 So, but whether those are good examples or not.

00:34:49.820 I think you'd agree that there are a number of places you can't audit.

00:34:53.520 So if you can't audit it, nobody can know.

00:34:56.360 And, but the one thing you can know is if you have a situation where there's lots of people involved and they're high stakes and it might be possible, that over time it will happen.

00:35:10.620 So the one thing you can guarantee is that if it hasn't happened, it will happen for sure because the system is designed to invite it by its inauditable nature.

00:35:22.540 It's an invitation.

00:35:24.820 So the only thing you can know is that it has to happen.

00:35:29.080 You can't know when or if it did.

00:35:32.480 Now, here's what's different about this argument.

00:35:35.580 In my experience, it makes people simply shut up and walk away.

00:35:40.240 Almost any other argument you make on any other point, people will stay there and argue.

00:35:47.620 For example, on abortion, the best argument you could make if you're a Republican is we push the decision closer to the individual.

00:35:56.780 That's the only thing that happened.

00:35:57.900 You don't want your federal government to make decisions if you can push them down to get as close to the individual as possible because it's life and death.

00:36:07.340 You know, you want to be as close as possible to the decision maker.

00:36:11.200 Now, that takes a while for each of the states to, you know, work through any changes they need to make.

00:36:17.280 But it gives every state their own little individual best case scenario.

00:36:20.820 Now, if I were to say that, that's a pretty good argument from a Republican perspective.

00:36:27.520 It would be a good argument.

00:36:28.620 But it won't make anybody stop arguing.

00:36:31.700 Right?

00:36:32.880 Have you ever made anybody stop arguing about abortion?

00:36:36.440 It just doesn't happen.

00:36:38.120 Because it's a life and death, and people have different opinions about where life begins, and that's it.

00:36:43.840 So you can't solve that one.

00:36:45.380 But trust me, if you say the election can't be fully audited, therefore, no one can know if it was true or not.

00:36:55.000 But on top of that, you can know for sure that it invites rigging.

00:37:00.580 So if it hasn't happened, it will happen for sure, because that's what the design guarantees.

00:37:06.240 Design is prediction.

00:37:09.820 Design is prediction.

00:37:12.060 If you designed a road that was, like, let's say you designed a road with tight turns and a speed limit of 100 miles an hour and no guardrails, what would happen?

00:37:26.160 You could predict that that design would create people driving off the road to their death.

00:37:31.840 It's not a guess.

00:37:34.100 Design is prediction.

00:37:35.840 If you design an election that can't be fully audited, I will tell you what will happen.

00:37:42.060 And I will be right every time.

00:37:44.160 I just don't know when.

00:37:46.080 Right?

00:37:46.380 The same way I don't know which specific car will go off the road, I know the design guarantees cars go off the road.

00:37:56.680 If the baby's heart is beating, it's murder.

00:37:59.780 It's murder.

00:38:02.380 No.

00:38:02.780 If the baby's heart is beating, it's killing.

00:38:07.780 Murder would mean it's illegal, by definition.

00:38:11.320 It's just what the words mean.

00:38:13.060 If you want to make that argument, you could say it's killing, but you could not say it's murder unless it's actually illegal.

00:38:21.280 Not that that changes anything.

00:38:28.780 All right.

00:38:30.620 You think murder predates the legal?

00:38:38.320 Eh, maybe.

00:38:44.520 We've got it covered, yeah.

00:38:50.260 You should start a God's Debris religion. 0.99

00:38:52.440 The last thing I want to do is start a new religion. 0.99

00:39:01.180 Did a little word thinking?

00:39:03.060 Yeah, that was.

00:39:04.400 It's not word thinking if it's the difference between what's legal and what's illegal.

00:39:11.700 That would be a good use of word thinking.

00:39:13.520 There's a difference between killing somebody illegally and killing them legally.

00:39:20.320 That's not exactly just the words you use.

00:39:23.840 One goes to jail and one doesn't.

00:39:29.800 All right. 0.96

00:39:34.440 Let's get rid of you, Rich. 0.73

00:39:38.300 Goodbye, Rich.

00:39:39.160 You are gone.

00:39:40.980 Sound of Freedom movie.

00:39:44.100 So I haven't seen the Sound of Freedom movie.

00:39:48.220 But I understand it's based on a real person.

00:39:51.580 Real person.

00:39:52.800 So having understood that, I think I would rather maybe read about the summary of it.

00:40:03.640 I can't even imagine watching a movie.

00:40:05.580 You know, I'll probably watch Mission Impossible movie this summer.

00:40:13.000 But movies?

00:40:16.120 Like, why would I watch a movie about something horrible for two and a half hours?

00:40:20.560 Who wants to put themselves in that situation for two and a half hours?

00:40:23.780 So I don't recommend watching it.

00:40:25.920 But I do recommend maybe finding out about the story in some other way.

00:40:29.680 Do not watch depressing stuff.

00:40:43.900 Hill's New Girl.

00:40:45.500 What?

00:40:50.140 You can find out about the story by watching it.

00:40:53.120 Okay.

00:40:53.400 I feel like you're not listening.

00:40:54.920 It's interesting to see people defend the trafficking of children.

00:41:02.380 You haven't seen that.

00:41:05.280 You haven't seen anybody defend the trafficking of children.

00:41:10.000 That's not a real thing.

00:41:12.000 All right.

00:41:13.420 We talked about Trump at the UFC.

00:41:14.980 I don't know about that adrenochrome harvesting stuff.

00:41:23.860 I don't believe that.

00:41:25.460 All right.

00:41:25.760 Here's a question for you.

00:41:27.620 On the cocaine found in the White House.

00:41:31.500 Now, as I've told you, pretty much all powder drugs in 2023 are cut with fentanyl.

00:41:40.400 Now, this was reported as cocaine, some kind of cocaine stuff, not fentanyl.

00:41:48.640 But here's the question that the press hasn't asked.

00:41:52.680 Was there fentanyl in it?

00:41:55.120 The press needs to ask that question directly.

00:41:58.940 Ask it directly so you can put them on record.

00:42:02.700 Because I think the odds of it not having fentanyl in it are 5%.

00:42:09.200 Probably 5%.

00:42:11.560 It's one thing for them to say, oh, they said this is in it.

00:42:16.360 It's very different if you say, I want you to tell me there's no fentanyl in it.

00:42:22.320 Tell me there's no fentanyl in it.

00:42:25.160 Because I don't think they can.

00:42:26.640 And I think they're keeping the fentanyl out of the press because that would make the story worse.

00:42:34.680 Now, let me say, I don't think I've said this before, so that's on me.

00:42:40.000 I don't really care whose it was.

00:42:42.460 Do you?

00:42:43.380 I think it's probably not hunters.

00:42:45.940 Probably not.

00:42:47.260 And I don't think it matters in any way to anything.

00:42:50.660 It doesn't matter to me.

00:42:51.700 It doesn't matter to the country.

00:42:53.160 It doesn't matter to Hunter.

00:42:54.420 It doesn't matter to anything.

00:42:55.060 It's suspicious the way the White House is handling it.

00:42:59.140 But it's, you know, political football, so they're trying to do what they can in the summer.

00:43:04.360 And probably it's a summer story.

00:43:06.560 You know, it's just something you'd talk about in the summer that you wouldn't care about in January.

00:43:11.400 But I don't care about Trump's boxes.

00:43:15.300 I don't care what's in them at all.

00:43:18.100 It doesn't make any difference to whether I'd want him to be president.

00:43:20.880 And I don't care about the cocaine in the White House.

00:43:23.960 It makes no difference to me.

00:43:27.300 It doesn't affect the next election.

00:43:29.880 Probably 80% of the people going to the White House have used illegal drugs.

00:43:36.440 That's my guess.

00:43:37.980 Probably 80% of the residents have used illegal drugs.

00:43:41.680 So finding some, you know, okay, it was a mistake, blah, blah.

00:43:46.300 Don't care.

00:43:46.800 Well, if it's pure cocaine, then the second question should be, could you give us a source?

00:43:58.820 Because I think you could sell that.

00:44:02.180 You could sell the name of somebody who's selling pure cocaine.

00:44:06.180 Because as far as I know, nobody knows how to find that person.

00:44:08.980 The people who actually do drugs, they can't find that.

00:44:13.860 You think you could go on to the, you know, just work your dealers and you'd find some pure cocaine in 2023?

00:44:21.500 I don't think it's a thing.

00:44:23.340 I think that's just, that's just done.

00:44:27.520 I think it just all is cut with fentanyl now.

00:44:31.080 Now, that's what I'm told.

00:44:32.660 I don't have personal experience, but that's what I'm told.

00:44:38.960 It does look like an op, but I wouldn't even care about that.

00:44:45.560 Right?

00:44:46.200 Because it's an op that's doing a thing we shouldn't care about.

00:44:49.960 We do because it's a political season, but we shouldn't.

00:44:54.340 So, if it was an op, it was a smart one, because it made us talk about it, but I don't think it matters.

00:45:04.200 Do we have apathy, or do we have so many things to be outraged about that we can't, we just don't have enough outrage to go around?

00:45:18.680 Huh.

00:45:24.340 It's in every drug, right?

00:45:26.400 You're right.

00:45:28.620 Six years now.

00:45:32.900 Thank you, cloud man.

00:45:37.660 Is your camera set to, why is the camera doing poorly?

00:45:47.300 Oh, you notice?

00:45:48.160 Oh, it's my eighth technical problem.

00:45:51.500 I don't have my lights on.

00:45:55.800 I had eight technical problems in the last ten minutes of my getting ready for this.

00:46:01.800 Eight separate problems.

00:46:03.900 Look at this.

00:46:04.800 See how it looks if I turn the lights on.

00:46:09.360 I don't know how you can have minutes that many things go wrong.

00:46:12.800 How's that?

00:46:13.480 A little better?

00:46:18.160 Yeah.

00:46:23.540 That's a whole better thing.

00:46:26.280 I just assume people don't like looking at me anyway, so I don't really think about it.

00:46:31.020 I just assume people listen to it and they don't look at it.

00:46:33.440 I don't know why you'd look at it.

00:46:34.780 I mean, I look the same every time you look.

00:46:37.240 Here I am.

00:46:38.580 I'm not even dressed differently, usually.

00:46:41.580 There's not much to look at.

00:46:44.600 It's too bright now.

00:46:45.620 Yeah.

00:46:48.160 All right.

00:46:49.620 That's all I got for you today.

00:46:51.220 I'm going to go do some other things.

00:46:52.520 Have a good Sunday.

00:46:54.700 If you were looking for today's Dilbert Reborn, you may have been looking for it.

00:47:03.540 Another problem.

00:47:04.640 It's another problem I just discovered in the last ten minutes.

00:47:07.500 It exists, but you haven't seen it.

00:47:09.900 Now, I would publish it as soon as I get off, except my computer's not working.

00:47:16.940 So my main computer's not working.

00:47:18.800 My iPad, my sound, my lights, my drawer.

00:47:23.820 My printer was on a paper.

00:47:28.420 Well, it was one of those days.

00:47:30.940 But otherwise, terrific.

00:47:33.940 You're in court.

00:47:36.060 Restitution.

00:47:36.580 All right.

00:47:36.860 Good luck to you.

00:47:39.060 Good luck to you.

00:47:40.560 That's all I got for now, people.

00:47:42.320 I'll talk to you tomorrow on YouTube.

00:47:44.800 Bye for now.

00:47:46.180 Thank you.

00:48:06.080 Bye for now.

00:48:08.380 Bye for now.

00:48:11.140 Bye for now.

00:48:12.140 Bye for now.

00:48:12.180 Bye for now.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - July 09, 2023

Episode 2164 Scott Adams： Our Data Is Wrong, Our Leaders Are Lying But We Can Compensate By Guessing

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