Episode 2214 Scott Adams: Science & Coin-Flipping In Tense Battle For Legitimacy & All News Is Fake
Episode Stats
Words per Minute
155.89319
Summary
Today's episode is a mashup of some of my favorite bits from a live stream I did on the Locals channel last night, and a story from a story that went over really well on my Man Cave live stream last night.
Transcript
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Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of human civilization.
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Today, testing, to also streaming live on X for the first time.
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And we're doing it over on the locals channel, where they get a little extra before and after,
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I just noticed that if I turn my camera landscape, which is what I did,
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the comments are not upside and they're sideways.
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So there might be a little more development that Elon needs to do on the live stream
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because most people want to do it the way I'm doing it.
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And that means that your comments are all sideways.
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Everybody, if you'd like to take this triple platform experience
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up to levels that nobody's even imagined could be possible,
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well, all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or chels or a stein,
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a canteen jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind.
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And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day,
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He, you know, leading the chat GPT and other billionaire stuff.
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One of the smartest people on the planet, Sam Altman.
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And he says something very compatible with something I've said.
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So he said, quote, in a tweet, give yourself a lot of shots to get lucky.
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It's even better advice than it appears on the surface.
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Luck isn't an independent variable, but increases super linearly with more surface area.
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You meet more people, make more connections between new ideas, learn patterns, etc.
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Yeah, my version of that is that you can make luck happen by going where there's more of it.
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So if you stay in your little small town and you know three neighbors and that's all you know of the entire world, what are the odds you're going to get lucky?
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Because there just aren't many things happening.
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But if you go somewhere, let's say, an exciting industry and an exciting place and you meet more people and you network and you invite people over and you make more friends and you do all the things you know to put yourself in a greater energy situation, just more stuff happening.
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So the reframe is that the old view is that some people are lucky, some people are not.
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The truth is that you can make your luck happen by going where there's more of it.
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And as Sam Altman says, although he talks about increasing your super linearly surface area, I just say go where there's more stuff happening.
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Allow me to tell you a story that went over really well on my Man Cave live stream last night on Locals.
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There are two stories and then I'm going to connect them.
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If you have children, especially teens, you may have had this experience.
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That you think they're not listening to any of your wisdom because you're always trying to drop it in.
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It's like, well, you know, in this situation, it's always a good idea to handle it this way.
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You know, you're just sort of like slowly letting your magic of your wisdom seep in.
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But you can never tell if it's working because they're not going to give you feedback.
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Like the thing you're not going to hear is, my goodness, that's the best idea I've heard all day.
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I've been alive for 10 years already and I don't think I've heard a finer idea.
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I'm going to adopt your idea now because it seems so sound.
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So just keep in mind that sometimes they're listening and absorbing, but you're not going to know right away.
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All right, now take that story, put it aside, but don't forget it.
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So yesterday, I finally got my own copies of my own book because when you do independent publishing, you have to buy your own book.
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If you do regular publishing, the publisher sends you a box of them.
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You can, you know, give them to your friends and stuff.
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But I had to wait for my own book to come just like you did, order it from Amazon.
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And I was standing in the kitchen and I was flipping through it, you know, just to make sure it looked the way I wanted it to look.
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And I sort of randomly picked down a chapter and just started reading it.
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Now, which is weird because I wrote it, but it's been so long since I wrote it, it's actually like a new experience sometimes when I read it.
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And the reframe that I was reading about, I'm going to share with you.
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Now, I swear, I swear this will change some of your lives in a small way, right?
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This is going after a small annoyance and I'm going to completely solve it for you right now.
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Watch how happy you are when you try this reframe.
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And the reframe is to solve the problem of deciding where to eat with your partner.
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If the frame you've adopted is that you're trying to make a decision with somebody who's not good at making decisions or doesn't make them the way you'd like them to.
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Now, let's take the classic, let's say, traditional stereotype situation of a boring, boring hetero couple.
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Obviously, I can't speak for the LGBTQ community.
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Maybe stuff, maybe it's a little different there.
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But in the hetero community, generally it goes like this.
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The guy says, hey, do you want to eat at X place?
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Women like it when the man will sometimes make a plan.
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Because women are planning all day and often taking care of kids.
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And, you know, so they're kind of planned out and they're kind of like it.
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It would feel really good if the guy would just say, hey, I got a plan.
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So if you're a guy, you have two things you need to accomplish.
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Number one, you have to be the take charge person who makes a plan for dinner.
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But also, you've got to make sure that you don't do any decision making on your own because you're going to get clowned in about a minute.
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So you can't make a decision, but also you must make a decision.
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How do you make a decision and not make a decision at the same time?
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That's the only way you can satisfy the situation.
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Instead of saying, I'm trying to make an eating decision with a crazy person for which there is no solution.
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You do the Kobayashi Maru, Star Trek reference, and you reframe it so that the real problem is you have a puzzle to solve.
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You're solving a puzzle, which is how do you take charge and not take charge at the same time.
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You pick two places you're willing to eat, and you say to your partner, usually the guy saying to the wife in this classic stereotype situation,
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And you say to yourself, wow, that worked pretty well.
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If any of you are married, you can back me on this.
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You get in the car, and then she says, after you start the car.
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But you know, we have eaten at that last place kind of recently.
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You know what would be even better than the two choices you gave me would be this third place I've been thinking about?
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She said yes to one, and then she's doing an audible in the car.
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Woman says he took charge, and yet she's still got to eat exactly what she wanted to eat.
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Now, I've already heard from people who have tried it, and it totally works.
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Now I'm going to insert a third story between the two stories, and then I'm going to connect them together.
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But as I was reading the part of my own book about how to decide where to eat, my stepdaughter comes walking down the hall, and we had made plans earlier to go out to lunch, but hadn't picked a place.
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She walks directly up to me as I'm reading this section, and she says, we can eat at pastas or the railroad cafe.
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Now, it's up to you to connect the two stories.
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And then we drove to pastas and had a perfectly great lunch.
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This one is the most trivial one, in the sense that it's just getting rid of a little frustration.
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But the book is full of ways to change your mental and physical health and your career and everything else.
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There's a study out of Harvard that tracked people over 84 years.
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And what they found was that good relationships are the greatest predictor of happiness.
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The people with the best relationships have the best happiness.
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I wonder if there's any other way to look at the same set of data.
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You've got a choice of two people to mate with.
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Grumpy and unhappy all the time, or happy all the time.
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Have you ever seen so much backward science in your life?
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Every time somebody says doing something makes you healthier, or doing something makes you happier,
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Because the happy people do those things, and the healthy people do those things.
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And it's not that doing those things makes you those things.
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It's that people who are those things do those things.
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Do you know what being healthy allows me to do?
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If you test it to me, you say, hey, he exercises, and he's healthy.
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So anyway, always look for the backwards causation.
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Often it's a both ways causation, like exercising and being healthy.
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But don't believe, just don't believe any science on these topics.
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Speaking of science, there's a new study that says these eco-friendly straws might be as bad or worse than regular straws.
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Because the eco-friendly ones are adding some chemicals to the environment that we didn't have.
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So I've been watching this pitch battle that we've had recently between science on one hand and flipping a frickin' coin on the other hand.
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Now, when I was young, I feel like science was ahead.
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But I feel like that's at least reversed or maybe drawn even.
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So whenever you see a study that's a binary, there are two things that are possible.
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So in this case, there are two things possible.
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Either the eco-straws were an improvement or they were not.
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You could argue it was exactly the same, but that would be unusual.
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So do you think that flipping a coin would have gotten you, on average, a worse result than studying it with your science?
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Well, you'd love to think that the science would win every time, wouldn't you?
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But I'm here to tell you it's sort of a really even battle between flipping coins and science when it comes to a lot of stuff.
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Now, I should be quick to tell you that science starts out with shaky.
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And in a perfect world, it improves over time as people reproduce things and find different ways to test things.
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So over time, it probably does crawl closer to the truth than whatever else we were using.
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But for new stuff, new stuff like the straws, that's kind of new.
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Apparently, Canadians aren't allowed to have news.
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The summary is Canadians are not allowed to have news now.
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Now, if you were worried that the Canadians were slowly losing their rights,
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you know, I have to admit, I haven't really been super worried about Canada.
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And I think Canadians are, generally speaking, quite well-balanced, rational, you know, high-functioning people.
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So I've been telling myself for a long time, well, the Canadians will work this out.
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The Canadians are real, you know, smart, solid.
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They've been running this good country for the longest time and doing a good job, in my opinion.
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So, you know, they don't need any help from us.
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Well, writer Gad Saad is reporting that he had a post blocked by Canadian Facebook for alleged misinformation.
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But then there was a community of notes that says it was blocked,
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but maybe not for the reason that he thinks, not for misinformation.
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Now, the first part of the story is, imagine being a pretty famous author.
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Imagine that your work is blocked on social media and you don't even know why.
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It's that he didn't have a mechanism to know why.
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All right, here's the reason why, according to a community notes.
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Doesn't mean he's wrong, by the way, but I'll just tell you what the community notes says.
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The fact that this is real, I'm going to read this.
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I feel like it couldn't be real, but it might be.
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The Canadian government has not forbidden posting news articles,
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but did start requiring social media companies to share revenue when they link to news sites.
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In response, Facebook made a business decision not to allow display or posting of such links by Canadian users.
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That Canada was so fucking dumb that they thought that Facebook would just start sharing the revenue with the news people that people link to?
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You know, you can make fun of Zuckerberg all day long for, you know, what his preferences are politically, et cetera.
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You know, you can make fun of him for looking like an android.
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Of course he's not going to do business with Canada under those conditions.
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There's no head of a social media company that would have ever agreed to that.
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And on Facebook, you're not allowed to see news from your own country.
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You can see news from other countries, but you're not allowed to see your own news.
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Now, keep in mind that the links were links to drive your traffic to the news site.
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Now, that would be advertising, we call it in this country, or marketing.
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It's advertising or marketing when people from somewhere else are encouraged to go to your product.
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It's not illegal, but Canada decided to make it non-economic to look at the news.
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In the real world, Canada is making it un-economical to know what's happening in your country.
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So, all of you Canadians, if you'd like to follow people like me on X,
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you might find, for the first time, what's happening in your country.
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Well, flying cars, I think, are here, although, as somebody said,
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because they're just tiny little personal quadricopters.
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It's basically like a little helicopter with, you know,
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four little electric motorized things like a drone.
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And in the Dilbert comic, that you can't see unless you're a subscriber on X or on the Locos community,
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He was trying to compete with a character named Topper,
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Apparently, China's got one that's flying around in prototype, and it looks pretty awesome.
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The only thing that was keeping us from having private aircraft was the power of the battery,
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The processing speed, so that you could do a lot of processing to keep it stable,
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And I would imagine some kind of GPS, you know, we've had for a long time.
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And then you would need the regulators to be okay with it.
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But basically, everything that would be needed to have your own little flying personal vehicle,
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because it looked like the four wings on the quadcopter were external.
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As in, if you walked over to it, it would chop you in half.
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And they're kind of low, the same height as the car.
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I'm positive that I've seen those where the blade thing was protected.
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I feel like they have to at least add that, right?
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You know, where there's a casing around the blade.
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Well, I'm no inventor of flying planes or cars.
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All right, DeSantis, I guess I missed this during the debate,
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So he was tweeting it around or X-ing it around.
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but I am going to send them to our southern border.
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When these drug smugglers bring fentanyl across the border,
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we're going to leave them cold, stone-cold dead.
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You're going to wait for them to come across the border?
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Like, if they're standing at one foot on the other side of the border,
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if only there was something we could do about that guy.
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and then stopping on their side while the immigrants are across.
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No, we should be dropping them with sniper fire.
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We should have snipers taking out all the coyotes
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I just can't support anybody who's weak on fentanyl.
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No, you go kill them where they're in their sleep.
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So, as much as I like DeSantis in a lot of ways,
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You know, I suppose he's maybe tested it or something
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I mean, I don't know why you would have this opinion, even.