Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2225 Scott Adams： Headlines, Bulging Veins And My Guide To Understanding News

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of human civilization.

00:00:11.180 It's called Coffee with Scott Adams, and I can't even imagine more fun than that, really.

00:00:16.580 It's impossible.

00:00:17.820 So if you'd like to...

00:00:19.000 Why does this cord only want to be in one fucking place?

00:00:24.180 All right, I've moved you now three times.

00:00:26.480 All right, I swear to God, I'm going to get you out of the way.

00:00:31.800 So if it's the last thing I do, there we go.

00:00:34.840 If you'd like to take this up to a level that you can't even believe,

00:00:37.900 all you've got to do is grab yourself a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a chalice of a stein,

00:00:42.520 a canteen jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:46.620 Fill it with your favorite liquid I like, coffee.

00:00:50.540 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day.

00:00:54.760 The thing that makes everything better, it's cold.

00:00:56.900 The simultaneous sip, and it happens now.

00:00:59.200 Go.

00:01:03.080 Ah.

00:01:05.180 So good.

00:01:07.140 Well, people always ask me,

00:01:09.400 Scott, why do you stay in California

00:01:12.400 when you know it's turning into a fecal hellhole?

00:01:18.180 Yeah, I just made that up.

00:01:19.560 A fecal hellhole.

00:01:21.300 It's like a hellhole with a little extra.

00:01:25.600 A little extra fecal.

00:01:27.620 But one of the reasons is California looks like they're on the verge of approving a bill

00:01:32.920 decriminalizing the possession and personal use of a variety of psychedelics,

00:01:39.120 including magic mushrooms.

00:01:40.480 I think it excludes peyote,

00:01:45.180 but it includes

00:01:46.540 DMT.

00:01:51.700 DMT is on the legal use list.

00:01:54.900 Interesting.

00:01:55.240 And here's the thing.

00:02:01.000 I think you would agree with this statement.

00:02:04.800 No matter how much things are going wrong,

00:02:09.500 there is a theoretical amount of hallucinogens that will make you not care.

00:02:14.020 Now, I shouldn't tell you my retirement plan,

00:02:18.460 but it looks like I'll be retiring to California, if you know what I mean.

00:02:22.820 A lot of people keep saying,

00:02:24.300 Scott, why do you want to, you know, take care of your body and be healthy?

00:02:28.760 All it's going to do is make you live, like, into your 80s,

00:02:33.060 and nobody wants to be in their 80s and still alive.

00:02:35.960 I mean, that's no good.

00:02:37.880 To which I say,

00:02:39.380 apparently you've never done psychedelics.

00:02:42.380 Apparently you never have.

00:02:43.500 Now, I would only recommend them in a legal,

00:02:47.180 healthy environment.

00:02:48.660 Don't do anything illegal.

00:02:50.440 But when I'm 80,

00:02:52.240 and these psychedelics are legal in California,

00:02:55.320 which looks like that will be the case,

00:02:57.360 I'm never going to have a bad day.

00:03:01.060 So that's my plan.

00:03:03.340 The rest of you,

00:03:04.460 you might choose differently

00:03:06.240 and sit around in pain and misery

00:03:09.200 and loneliness until you die.

00:03:12.060 Now, that's another plan.

00:03:13.500 And that's the way most people do it.

00:03:15.520 But not me.

00:03:17.180 I'm going to be visiting other dimensions,

00:03:19.380 and you'll barely know I'm there.

00:03:22.020 That's my plan for aging.

00:03:24.160 Well, here's an update on my amazing book,

00:03:27.980 Reframe Your Brain,

00:03:28.780 which I just noticed as a solid five-star reviews now.

00:03:33.700 For a while, there was like,

00:03:35.520 there was 4.5.

00:03:37.600 But now it's all the way up to solid five.

00:03:41.240 Five.

00:03:42.300 The trouble is, of course,

00:03:43.580 that Amazon is still showing a fake book listing.

00:03:48.000 So if you look for the hardcover,

00:03:50.940 even though for a while it was fixed,

00:03:53.360 it immediately went unfixed again.

00:03:55.820 And the reason is that Amazon says

00:03:57.680 they cannot remove a link

00:03:59.620 that's not even a real link,

00:04:02.320 that you can't buy a book from it.

00:04:04.360 And it's obviously a fake

00:04:06.340 that confuses people about the real link.

00:04:09.160 And even under those conditions,

00:04:11.440 they can't suppress the link.

00:04:13.640 That's what they say.

00:04:16.980 Now, do you think that's true?

00:04:19.320 Well, it might be true they have some policy,

00:04:21.620 but obviously they can do it.

00:04:24.620 So once again,

00:04:26.140 we're in this weird phase of history

00:04:28.340 where you can't tell

00:04:30.000 if this is just part of

00:04:31.640 the national incompetence problem.

00:04:34.220 But Amazon is unique

00:04:35.620 in that they're weirdly very good at most things.

00:04:39.880 It's the best software I've ever seen.

00:04:41.380 And so I ask myself,

00:04:45.180 what do I assume about the reason?

00:04:48.400 Because it's been a long time now,

00:04:50.380 and it seems to be unfixable.

00:04:53.440 They say I should go to my prior publisher,

00:04:56.380 the one that canceled me,

00:04:57.640 because they put the listing there,

00:04:59.900 and therefore they're the only ones

00:05:01.460 who can edit it.

00:05:02.780 Does that sound even slightly true?

00:05:04.960 That the only people who can edit

00:05:07.220 an existing listing

00:05:08.380 are the ones who put it there?

00:05:10.020 So you're telling me

00:05:12.160 that if it were racist,

00:05:14.260 Amazon couldn't remove it.

00:05:17.320 Is that what they're saying?

00:05:19.160 If it were literally

00:05:20.560 like a call to violence,

00:05:22.920 it's not.

00:05:24.060 But if it were,

00:05:25.020 they couldn't remove that, right?

00:05:28.080 If Obama published another book,

00:05:31.340 and somebody front ran him

00:05:32.680 and put like a fake version up there,

00:05:34.180 and it was confusing the real Obama book,

00:05:38.460 do you think Amazon would say,

00:05:40.140 oh, the publisher doesn't want to change this,

00:05:41.880 it has to stay there?

00:05:43.320 No, of course not.

00:05:44.340 Not even the slightest chance.

00:05:46.420 No.

00:05:47.280 So what do you assume

00:05:48.740 when there's a system

00:05:50.480 that seems to be giving you a problem,

00:05:53.180 and you're a person

00:05:54.180 who's in the political realm,

00:05:56.140 as I am,

00:05:56.800 and the system is opaque,

00:05:59.440 meaning I can't quite see

00:06:00.680 what's going on

00:06:01.360 behind the curtain,

00:06:02.940 your operating assumption

00:06:04.160 is that it has to be

00:06:05.020 exactly what you think it is.

00:06:06.840 It might not be.

00:06:08.640 You know,

00:06:08.940 maybe a 50-50 chance

00:06:10.240 or something like that.

00:06:11.380 But you have to assume

00:06:12.760 that it's bad intentions,

00:06:14.940 and that you're being targeted.

00:06:17.880 Doesn't mean it's true.

00:06:19.700 Remember,

00:06:20.200 we live in,

00:06:20.960 as you said,

00:06:22.620 a zero-trust environment.

00:06:24.060 I'm not the one

00:06:27.300 who chose to be

00:06:28.080 in a zero-trust environment.

00:06:30.100 It just sort of happened.

00:06:31.900 So if you want to buy the book,

00:06:33.440 you're going to have to

00:06:33.920 look pretty hard for it.

00:06:37.020 And it's almost impossible

00:06:39.200 for me to imagine

00:06:40.320 that this is accidental.

00:06:44.800 Realistically,

00:06:45.440 it's probably a coin toss,

00:06:47.120 50-50.

00:06:48.440 But my brain can't really

00:06:50.040 accept the other 50%

00:06:51.540 because it's been too long.

00:06:52.700 It's too obvious

00:06:54.020 that it can't be true.

00:06:55.780 Right?

00:06:56.440 Would you agree?

00:06:57.620 It's really obvious

00:06:58.740 that it can't be true

00:07:00.660 what they've told me.

00:07:02.060 But it could be incompetence.

00:07:05.240 You can't rule it out.

00:07:08.260 All right.

00:07:11.940 I was just re-watching

00:07:13.800 this clip from Tucker Carlson.

00:07:16.720 He was giving a podcast

00:07:17.700 interview somewhere.

00:07:18.480 And he says directly

00:07:20.440 that he has

00:07:21.760 personal knowledge

00:07:22.860 of people on CNN

00:07:24.300 and use as an example.

00:07:26.400 And that

00:07:26.880 the national security reporters,

00:07:29.700 he didn't name names,

00:07:31.240 are literally just mouthpieces

00:07:33.120 for the Pentagon.

00:07:34.400 And they're not even

00:07:35.380 slightly real journalists.

00:07:37.380 And that it's known.

00:07:39.640 And there's no doubt about it.

00:07:42.900 Now, how many people

00:07:44.700 who watch CNN

00:07:45.920 would be aware of that?

00:07:47.280 that somebody

00:07:48.380 who worked there

00:07:49.220 can tell you for sure

00:07:50.940 that the news isn't real.

00:07:52.560 And they don't even

00:07:53.320 try to make it real

00:07:54.140 on the national security stuff.

00:07:56.420 They literally just

00:07:57.340 say what the Pentagon

00:07:59.140 wants them to say.

00:08:02.700 Really,

00:08:03.260 but how many people

00:08:03.900 know that?

00:08:04.860 So I'm working

00:08:05.440 on a news guide,

00:08:07.580 a guide to understand

00:08:08.700 the news.

00:08:09.640 And I'll talk about

00:08:10.200 that in a minute.

00:08:11.280 It's getting bigger.

00:08:11.940 All right.

00:08:14.560 China is giving

00:08:15.820 Apple some trouble.

00:08:18.220 I sold my Apple stock

00:08:19.760 a month ago

00:08:21.680 or so

00:08:22.540 because I thought

00:08:23.260 Apple was going to

00:08:25.880 hit some tough times.

00:08:27.520 And China was one of the

00:08:28.820 things I was concerned about.

00:08:30.940 And apparently China

00:08:31.680 is starting to push

00:08:32.560 on Apple.

00:08:33.940 Apple

00:08:34.780 and they've banned

00:08:36.120 iPhones

00:08:36.780 for government

00:08:38.080 employees.

00:08:40.100 But in China

00:08:41.120 that's a lot

00:08:42.260 of people.

00:08:44.000 A lot of people.

00:08:45.440 So what does that

00:08:46.160 sound like?

00:08:47.440 Doesn't that sound like

00:08:48.340 revenge for TikTok

00:08:49.340 being banned

00:08:50.200 in American

00:08:51.440 government

00:08:51.940 places?

00:08:53.840 Partly that,

00:08:54.980 but also

00:08:55.600 Huawei

00:08:56.280 introduced a 5G

00:08:57.740 phone

00:08:58.140 that's a bit

00:08:59.560 of a mystery

00:09:00.120 because we didn't

00:09:01.000 think they had

00:09:01.580 the chips to do it.

00:09:04.020 And it looks like

00:09:05.280 they're just pushing

00:09:05.940 Huawei

00:09:06.440 because it's

00:09:06.960 the Chinese phone.

00:09:09.460 But yeah,

00:09:10.600 Apple might have

00:09:11.280 some difficulties

00:09:13.420 there if they start

00:09:14.860 to lose the

00:09:15.320 Chinese market.

00:09:17.260 All right.

00:09:17.740 So once again,

00:09:19.060 I'm shocked

00:09:19.960 that the media

00:09:20.700 is not covering

00:09:21.360 this story

00:09:21.980 that President

00:09:23.520 Joe Biden

00:09:24.160 called the

00:09:24.920 Nazis that are

00:09:26.200 marching in Florida.

00:09:27.340 Again,

00:09:27.600 they're back.

00:09:29.880 He called them

00:09:30.700 very fine people

00:09:31.600 and

00:09:33.020 it's just hard

00:09:35.080 to understand.

00:09:36.280 Why would he

00:09:36.740 say that?

00:09:37.480 Why would he

00:09:37.860 call Nazis

00:09:38.380 very fine people

00:09:39.320 in public?

00:09:40.400 In public,

00:09:41.260 he said that.

00:09:44.160 By the way,

00:09:44.920 if somebody tells you

00:09:45.680 he didn't say that,

00:09:47.380 you should send

00:09:48.260 them the transcript.

00:09:51.540 Now,

00:09:52.080 you might need

00:09:52.540 to tweak

00:09:53.100 the transcript,

00:09:54.540 but you could

00:09:55.020 find it,

00:09:56.160 look for the

00:09:56.780 transcript

00:09:57.200 of Trump

00:09:58.480 and Charlottesville

00:09:59.920 and just

00:10:01.760 change the names

00:10:02.620 from Charlottesville

00:10:03.700 to whatever town

00:10:05.080 these Nazis

00:10:05.680 are in

00:10:06.020 and change

00:10:07.040 Trump to Biden

00:10:07.960 and provide

00:10:09.240 that transcript

00:10:09.940 and then ask

00:10:11.420 people if they

00:10:12.160 see Biden

00:10:12.960 calling them

00:10:13.960 fine people

00:10:14.520 or not.

00:10:16.360 And they're

00:10:17.060 going to look

00:10:17.340 at that transcript

00:10:18.040 and they're

00:10:18.400 going to say,

00:10:18.940 obviously,

00:10:20.760 he very

00:10:21.740 specifically

00:10:22.380 condemned them.

00:10:23.220 And you'll say,

00:10:25.440 what?

00:10:26.260 What are you

00:10:26.660 talking about?

00:10:27.380 Well,

00:10:27.640 look at the part

00:10:28.200 you're not telling

00:10:28.800 me.

00:10:29.440 See this part

00:10:29.980 you're not

00:10:30.280 mentioning?

00:10:31.240 He says

00:10:31.880 directly,

00:10:32.560 I condemn

00:10:33.020 them completely.

00:10:34.440 And I'll say,

00:10:35.840 that must be

00:10:36.580 some other

00:10:37.060 reference to

00:10:37.840 something else.

00:10:39.500 I mean,

00:10:39.820 it's like,

00:10:40.620 that was almost

00:10:41.680 a full minute

00:10:42.380 later.

00:10:43.360 I don't even

00:10:43.980 understand what

00:10:44.460 you're saying.

00:10:45.700 You obvious

00:10:46.600 racist.

00:10:47.660 So that's

00:10:48.280 how I'd

00:10:48.580 play it.

00:10:50.340 Trump is

00:10:51.040 apparently

00:10:51.360 claiming that

00:10:52.160 his black

00:10:53.000 support after

00:10:53.860 his mugshot

00:10:54.980 went up by

00:10:56.460 quadrupled

00:10:57.880 or quintupled.

00:10:59.460 He said

00:11:00.180 his black

00:11:00.620 support has

00:11:01.920 quadrupled

00:11:02.620 or quintupled

00:11:03.520 since his

00:11:05.020 mugshot.

00:11:06.420 How many

00:11:06.840 of you think

00:11:07.340 that that

00:11:07.780 estimate is

00:11:08.480 somewhere in

00:11:08.920 the ballpark?

00:11:11.060 Does that

00:11:11.760 sound pretty

00:11:12.180 close to what

00:11:12.740 the actual

00:11:13.120 numbers are?

00:11:14.320 Four times?

00:11:16.960 He actually

00:11:19.340 tricked CNN

00:11:20.780 into fact

00:11:21.520 checking him.

00:11:24.660 It doesn't

00:11:25.460 matter how

00:11:25.860 many times

00:11:26.320 he does it.

00:11:27.000 They fall

00:11:27.460 for it every

00:11:28.000 time.

00:11:28.880 So they

00:11:29.540 fact checked

00:11:30.080 him and

00:11:30.360 said,

00:11:30.740 no,

00:11:31.640 no way.

00:11:32.980 No way he's

00:11:33.640 up four or

00:11:34.180 five times.

00:11:35.260 We checked

00:11:35.880 the polls and

00:11:37.240 he's only up

00:11:38.700 like two,

00:11:39.300 three percent

00:11:39.940 in all the

00:11:41.280 polls,

00:11:42.200 I think,

00:11:42.640 except one.

00:11:43.840 And that

00:11:44.720 might be

00:11:45.040 within the

00:11:45.460 margin of

00:11:45.840 error.

00:11:46.960 So no

00:11:49.060 way he's

00:11:49.720 up four or

00:11:50.280 five times

00:11:51.060 like that

00:11:51.720 liar.

00:11:52.800 He's only

00:11:53.500 up in

00:11:53.800 every poll

00:11:54.400 enough to

00:11:56.700 win

00:11:57.000 convincingly

00:11:58.100 if they're

00:11:58.480 true.

00:11:59.620 But they

00:12:00.220 might be

00:12:00.540 within the

00:12:00.900 margin of

00:12:01.280 error.

00:12:02.340 So we're

00:12:02.940 not going

00:12:03.220 to look

00:12:03.380 at the

00:12:03.580 actual

00:12:03.880 polls.

00:12:05.260 No.

00:12:09.580 When they

00:12:10.640 compare what

00:12:11.580 they call

00:12:11.980 Trump's

00:12:12.520 lies to

00:12:14.120 Biden's

00:12:14.740 lies,

00:12:15.200 there's

00:12:16.720 such a

00:12:17.100 difference.

00:12:18.240 This is

00:12:18.720 obviously

00:12:19.380 hyperbole,

00:12:20.560 and it's

00:12:21.040 obviously to

00:12:22.000 make them

00:12:22.320 go check

00:12:22.860 and then

00:12:24.440 report that

00:12:25.060 his black

00:12:25.840 support is

00:12:26.320 up.

00:12:27.540 Do you

00:12:27.880 know what

00:12:28.140 is the

00:12:28.460 best thing

00:12:29.080 that would

00:12:30.040 help Trump's

00:12:30.780 support among

00:12:31.900 black voters?

00:12:33.580 Name the

00:12:34.200 one best

00:12:34.820 thing that

00:12:35.280 could happen.

00:12:36.200 A lot of

00:12:37.880 conversation

00:12:38.540 about his

00:12:39.740 increase in

00:12:40.420 black support,

00:12:41.800 even before

00:12:43.520 it's there.

00:12:44.740 But you

00:12:44.980 want a lot

00:12:45.340 of people

00:12:45.600 talking about

00:12:46.240 it.

00:12:46.560 It's like,

00:12:46.860 I don't

00:12:47.060 know.

00:12:47.920 Is that

00:12:48.500 increase in

00:12:49.920 black support

00:12:50.500 as much as

00:12:51.040 we think?

00:12:51.980 And why?

00:12:53.260 Like, what

00:12:53.620 would be the

00:12:54.080 cause of it?

00:12:55.080 And maybe we

00:12:55.560 should dig

00:12:55.940 down a little

00:12:56.420 bit and find

00:12:56.960 out what's

00:12:57.880 happening with

00:12:58.700 all this

00:12:59.020 more support

00:13:00.840 from the

00:13:01.200 black community.

00:13:02.820 It's classic

00:13:03.720 Trump.

00:13:05.040 It's stuff

00:13:05.820 only he can

00:13:06.580 do.

00:13:06.860 So, anyway,

00:13:10.280 I love just

00:13:11.160 watching classic

00:13:11.980 Trump and

00:13:12.700 then classic

00:13:13.360 CNN falling

00:13:14.100 for it.

00:13:15.900 This is very

00:13:16.700 much the

00:13:17.140 don't think of

00:13:17.760 an elephant

00:13:18.200 trick.

00:13:19.980 All right,

00:13:21.140 I'd like you

00:13:21.720 to not think

00:13:22.500 of an elephant.

00:13:23.820 Don't.

00:13:24.720 Don't think

00:13:25.420 of the elephant.

00:13:26.620 And then

00:13:27.140 they're all

00:13:27.840 talking about

00:13:28.300 the elephant.

00:13:30.680 All right,

00:13:31.440 here's a,

00:13:32.820 I've been

00:13:34.240 talking about

00:13:34.680 trying to

00:13:35.660 deprogram

00:13:36.600 a Democrat

00:13:37.420 from all

00:13:39.060 the fake

00:13:39.440 news and

00:13:40.140 make them

00:13:41.020 more like

00:13:41.460 reasonable

00:13:41.900 actual citizens

00:13:43.360 and stuff.

00:13:44.640 And I'm

00:13:45.780 not sure how

00:13:46.300 easy it would

00:13:46.740 be.

00:13:46.960 Seems like

00:13:47.300 it'd be

00:13:47.500 pretty hard.

00:13:47.980 But I found

00:13:48.380 one technique

00:13:49.020 that works

00:13:49.540 right away.

00:13:51.060 And this

00:13:51.700 was tried

00:13:52.100 once in

00:13:53.160 Minneapolis.

00:13:54.780 And it

00:13:55.280 involves

00:13:55.720 four armed

00:13:57.180 carjackers

00:13:59.060 who first

00:14:00.460 beat you up

00:14:01.240 and threaten

00:14:02.000 you,

00:14:02.740 break your

00:14:03.180 leg,

00:14:04.100 bloody you

00:14:04.600 in front of

00:14:05.560 your children.

00:14:06.600 And you

00:14:07.180 barely get

00:14:07.700 down alive.

00:14:08.520 Now,

00:14:08.720 under those

00:14:09.120 conditions,

00:14:09.660 which did

00:14:10.060 happen to

00:14:10.540 a Democratic

00:14:11.180 Party

00:14:11.560 chairwoman

00:14:12.060 just recently,

00:14:13.760 she is

00:14:14.360 much less

00:14:15.180 inclined to

00:14:17.300 support

00:14:17.800 defunding the

00:14:18.440 police now.

00:14:20.120 I don't know.

00:14:21.120 Does that

00:14:21.440 surprise you?

00:14:23.060 That being

00:14:23.660 violently

00:14:24.160 attacked in

00:14:25.420 front of her

00:14:25.940 own house,

00:14:26.960 in front of

00:14:28.060 her own house,

00:14:28.900 that's a key

00:14:29.500 here,

00:14:30.700 and was

00:14:33.500 hurt pretty

00:14:33.940 bad.

00:14:34.280 And that's

00:14:35.840 not funny,

00:14:36.900 but it

00:14:38.380 does tell

00:14:38.820 you what

00:14:39.260 would it

00:14:39.580 take to

00:14:40.140 change a

00:14:40.740 Democrat

00:14:41.100 into a

00:14:41.900 Republican,

00:14:42.940 and it

00:14:43.260 turns out

00:14:43.860 the answer

00:14:44.320 is armed

00:14:44.880 robbery,

00:14:46.280 with a

00:14:47.160 danger of

00:14:47.900 killing your

00:14:48.660 children.

00:14:50.240 Putting your

00:14:50.840 children in

00:14:51.340 mortal danger

00:14:52.040 appears to

00:14:53.400 be enough

00:14:53.880 to make

00:14:54.820 somebody say,

00:14:56.400 huh,

00:14:57.300 I wonder

00:14:58.180 if everything

00:14:58.800 I've ever

00:14:59.320 said about

00:14:59.880 the police

00:15:00.440 is still

00:15:00.920 tracking just

00:15:01.700 right.

00:15:02.060 So if

00:15:04.480 you want

00:15:04.700 to deprogram

00:15:05.380 anybody,

00:15:07.300 armed

00:15:08.120 robbery,

00:15:09.380 carjacking,

00:15:10.080 we'll get

00:15:10.460 it done.

00:15:12.500 Speaking of

00:15:13.420 injustice,

00:15:14.500 Peter Navarro,

00:15:16.080 economic

00:15:17.400 advisor to

00:15:18.160 Trump,

00:15:19.260 is found

00:15:20.380 guilty and

00:15:20.960 he's going

00:15:21.260 to go to

00:15:21.800 jail unless

00:15:22.940 his appeals

00:15:23.880 work,

00:15:24.940 for not

00:15:26.340 complying with

00:15:26.920 the subpoena

00:15:27.460 from the

00:15:28.480 House Select

00:15:29.000 Committee on

00:15:30.380 the January

00:15:30.840 6th stuff.

00:15:32.060 So he

00:15:32.540 didn't

00:15:32.900 comply with

00:15:33.760 the subpoena

00:15:34.340 for an

00:15:36.260 illegitimate

00:15:36.960 political

00:15:37.500 process.

00:15:38.800 So he's

00:15:39.420 going to

00:15:39.800 jail.

00:15:42.220 Nobody

00:15:42.780 believes that

00:15:43.540 that was a

00:15:44.140 legitimate

00:15:44.500 process.

00:15:45.520 Well,

00:15:45.700 I mean,

00:15:45.880 unless you're

00:15:46.180 a Democrat,

00:15:46.740 I suppose.

00:15:48.340 Because they

00:15:49.020 don't watch

00:15:49.760 real news.

00:15:52.920 But can

00:15:53.680 you think of

00:15:54.100 anything less

00:15:54.960 fair than

00:15:57.380 going to

00:15:57.900 jail because

00:15:58.460 you didn't

00:15:59.280 comply with

00:16:01.140 an obviously

00:16:01.920 corrupt

00:16:05.420 process.

00:16:08.100 So I

00:16:08.660 don't know

00:16:08.900 how far

00:16:09.260 he can

00:16:09.520 take it,

00:16:10.340 but he

00:16:10.720 only has

00:16:11.160 to drag

00:16:11.700 it out

00:16:12.000 until a

00:16:12.800 Republican

00:16:13.220 gets elected.

00:16:15.180 Presumably,

00:16:15.760 he would be

00:16:16.120 instantly

00:16:16.500 pardoned.

00:16:18.140 Does that

00:16:18.540 track?

00:16:20.140 Do you

00:16:20.380 think if he

00:16:20.720 just drags

00:16:21.300 it out and

00:16:22.420 we get a

00:16:22.780 Republican,

00:16:23.420 it wouldn't

00:16:23.880 matter which

00:16:24.320 Republican,

00:16:25.100 wouldn't he

00:16:25.460 be pardoned

00:16:26.180 immediately?

00:16:28.240 I think he

00:16:29.080 would,

00:16:29.420 so that's

00:16:29.720 his best

00:16:30.060 strategy.

00:16:31.120 Now,

00:16:31.360 speaking of

00:16:31.780 strategy,

00:16:32.500 apparently the

00:16:33.200 Trump lawyers

00:16:34.600 have the

00:16:35.460 following strategy,

00:16:37.220 that because

00:16:37.880 the legal

00:16:39.000 attacks on

00:16:39.620 Trump are a

00:16:40.160 little bit

00:16:40.560 weird and

00:16:41.380 unique,

00:16:42.860 that they

00:16:43.280 will have

00:16:43.820 infinite

00:16:44.780 technical

00:16:45.960 objections that

00:16:47.140 have to be

00:16:47.620 ruled on.

00:16:48.620 And they

00:16:49.020 basically said

00:16:49.880 it directly.

00:16:50.960 We're basically

00:16:51.700 just going to

00:16:52.360 bury you in

00:16:52.980 technical

00:16:53.460 objections.

00:16:53.980 each one

00:16:55.160 has to be

00:16:55.820 put through

00:16:56.500 the process,

00:16:57.520 and we're

00:16:58.220 going to

00:16:59.020 make this

00:17:00.520 last until

00:17:01.160 he's president

00:17:01.740 so he can

00:17:02.880 pardon himself.

00:17:04.900 And that

00:17:05.240 that's the

00:17:05.620 actual process.

00:17:07.540 That's the

00:17:08.240 actual process.

00:17:10.580 They're really

00:17:11.540 just playing it

00:17:12.260 for a stall.

00:17:13.360 In both

00:17:14.180 cases,

00:17:15.480 why are they

00:17:16.100 needing to

00:17:16.680 stall?

00:17:19.080 It's a

00:17:19.820 direct

00:17:20.280 admission that

00:17:21.560 the current

00:17:22.000 process is

00:17:23.220 not

00:17:23.560 judicial

00:17:24.500 and fair.

00:17:26.220 That you

00:17:26.940 would have

00:17:27.240 to get

00:17:28.920 past it

00:17:29.640 to get

00:17:30.580 anything that

00:17:31.180 looks like

00:17:31.540 justice.

00:17:32.560 That the

00:17:33.040 justice system

00:17:33.760 is just

00:17:34.140 biased and

00:17:34.760 broken.

00:17:37.140 So that's

00:17:38.120 shocking.

00:17:38.840 Anyway,

00:17:40.800 RFK Jr.

00:17:41.720 was,

00:17:42.800 I don't

00:17:43.720 want to say

00:17:44.080 complaining,

00:17:44.840 I'll say

00:17:45.140 describing,

00:17:46.180 that the

00:17:47.020 DNC is

00:17:48.260 changing their

00:17:49.280 rules about

00:17:49.900 the primary

00:17:50.400 to make it

00:17:51.600 basically

00:17:52.100 impossible for

00:17:53.020 any challenger

00:17:53.900 to challenge

00:17:54.680 Biden in

00:17:56.520 the primary.

00:17:57.400 So they're

00:17:58.160 tweaking the

00:17:59.000 rules about

00:17:59.560 the Iowa and

00:18:00.300 New Hampshire

00:18:00.680 primary,

00:18:01.760 which one

00:18:02.660 imagines that

00:18:03.500 RFK Jr.

00:18:04.180 could do

00:18:04.860 well as

00:18:06.300 long as

00:18:07.160 there was no

00:18:08.320 fiddling with

00:18:09.000 the rules.

00:18:09.680 So they're

00:18:10.460 going to

00:18:10.640 fiddle with

00:18:10.980 the rules.

00:18:12.240 And they make

00:18:13.260 it basically

00:18:13.760 impossible for

00:18:14.500 an outsider

00:18:14.960 to win.

00:18:16.400 Now,

00:18:16.980 what did they

00:18:18.120 just do to

00:18:19.000 RFK Jr.

00:18:19.800 now that he

00:18:20.560 knows for

00:18:21.080 sure that

00:18:22.460 his own

00:18:22.980 team is

00:18:23.520 going to

00:18:23.740 prevent him

00:18:24.220 from winning?

00:18:24.840 For sure.

00:18:25.580 There's no

00:18:25.980 doubt about

00:18:26.420 it.

00:18:27.420 What do

00:18:27.920 you do if

00:18:28.260 you're him?

00:18:29.340 He basically

00:18:30.200 says he

00:18:30.840 owes his

00:18:31.440 supporters a

00:18:33.140 path.

00:18:34.460 In other

00:18:34.780 words, he

00:18:35.080 can't take

00:18:35.540 their money

00:18:35.880 and run

00:18:36.160 for president

00:18:36.700 if he

00:18:37.520 can't describe

00:18:38.280 a way to

00:18:38.740 get there,

00:18:39.180 and the

00:18:39.520 current system

00:18:40.200 doesn't give

00:18:40.700 him away.

00:18:43.320 He's not

00:18:43.960 saying third

00:18:44.620 party yet,

00:18:45.240 is he?

00:18:46.340 He's not

00:18:46.940 saying the

00:18:47.360 words.

00:18:47.720 but can't

00:18:50.980 you imagine

00:18:51.440 it?

00:18:52.880 Now, I

00:18:53.220 saw Paul

00:18:53.760 Begala with

00:18:55.540 his gigantic

00:18:56.260 bug eyes.

00:18:57.940 You know

00:18:58.240 the bug

00:18:58.580 eyes when

00:18:59.000 somebody's

00:18:59.420 lying?

00:19:01.180 Paul Begala

00:19:01.700 eyes?

00:19:03.240 Adam Schiff

00:19:03.800 eyes?

00:19:05.440 Yeah.

00:19:06.620 But sometimes

00:19:08.060 Paul Begala

00:19:08.700 says something

00:19:09.680 that is wise

00:19:10.780 and true,

00:19:12.160 and I'll

00:19:13.240 tell you what

00:19:13.580 he said,

00:19:14.040 and it's

00:19:14.900 not a bad

00:19:15.360 take.

00:19:15.720 He says

00:19:17.740 that Trump's

00:19:18.560 base is

00:19:19.200 the most

00:19:19.620 solid base

00:19:20.440 anybody's

00:19:22.060 ever seen,

00:19:23.020 that the

00:19:24.340 indictments

00:19:24.860 didn't hurt

00:19:25.360 him,

00:19:25.900 you know,

00:19:26.120 that January

00:19:26.700 6th didn't

00:19:27.340 hurt him,

00:19:28.420 nothing hurts

00:19:29.120 him.

00:19:29.780 So he's

00:19:30.120 got a 45%

00:19:31.200 guaranteed

00:19:31.980 of K

00:19:33.960 Jr.

00:19:34.280 too.

00:19:36.100 Right?

00:19:36.400 Normally that

00:19:36.960 would matter.

00:19:38.660 Does it

00:19:39.340 matter with

00:19:39.740 Trump supporters?

00:19:42.460 I don't

00:19:43.160 know.

00:19:43.980 I don't

00:19:44.240 know.

00:19:44.440 So I

00:19:46.300 feel like

00:19:46.880 Begala

00:19:48.860 says that

00:19:49.620 it doesn't

00:19:49.980 matter who

00:19:50.420 it is,

00:19:51.480 any third

00:19:52.120 party candidate

00:19:52.840 will make

00:19:53.440 Trump the

00:19:53.860 next president.

00:19:55.220 And the

00:19:55.540 idea is that

00:19:56.200 nobody from

00:19:56.820 his base

00:19:57.280 is going

00:19:57.640 to defect,

00:19:59.120 but somebody

00:20:00.100 from the

00:20:00.460 other base

00:20:00.940 will.

00:20:02.060 It's a lot

00:20:02.860 easier to

00:20:03.360 imagine a

00:20:03.860 Biden person

00:20:04.600 saying,

00:20:05.020 you know

00:20:05.200 what,

00:20:05.840 I just

00:20:06.320 can't vote

00:20:06.720 for Biden.

00:20:08.100 I'd rather

00:20:08.800 lose,

00:20:10.340 but I've

00:20:11.220 got to vote

00:20:11.520 for a

00:20:11.780 Democrat,

00:20:12.280 or

00:20:14.200 somebody

00:20:14.500 who's

00:20:14.660 like

00:20:14.880 one.

00:20:16.260 So,

00:20:16.900 no,

00:20:17.260 I'm not

00:20:17.480 going to

00:20:17.640 run.

00:20:18.540 If I

00:20:19.020 read,

00:20:19.260 I'll get

00:20:19.500 assassinated

00:20:20.120 in 10

00:20:20.600 minutes.

00:20:22.560 All

00:20:22.740 right.

00:20:24.120 So,

00:20:25.120 it's weird

00:20:25.600 to be a

00:20:26.000 Democrat.

00:20:26.260 Imagine being

00:20:26.860 a Democrat

00:20:27.360 and knowing

00:20:27.980 that you're

00:20:28.380 not going

00:20:28.700 to be

00:20:28.940 given a

00:20:29.360 choice.

00:20:31.820 I mean,

00:20:32.120 think about

00:20:32.520 it.

00:20:33.960 Michael

00:20:34.420 Schellenberger

00:20:35.040 said this

00:20:35.700 about their

00:20:36.780 attempt to

00:20:37.260 use the

00:20:37.540 14th

00:20:39.020 amendment

00:20:40.140 to remove

00:20:41.780 Trump from

00:20:42.380 the ballot.

00:20:44.220 So,

00:20:44.440 as Michael

00:20:44.740 Schellenberger

00:20:45.300 accurately pointed

00:20:46.260 out,

00:20:46.740 no,

00:20:47.380 as Joel

00:20:48.140 Pollack

00:20:48.520 pointed out,

00:20:49.700 it's the

00:20:50.040 same system

00:20:50.640 as Iran.

00:20:53.820 If you

00:20:55.120 get to

00:20:55.520 vote,

00:20:56.400 but you

00:20:56.720 only get to

00:20:57.240 vote for

00:20:57.600 who they

00:20:57.880 tell you

00:20:58.220 you can

00:20:58.500 vote for,

00:20:59.740 that's Iran.

00:21:00.760 That's their

00:21:01.160 exact system.

00:21:03.320 And now

00:21:04.040 they're doing

00:21:04.400 it not only

00:21:05.080 maybe in the

00:21:05.920 general election

00:21:06.660 election or

00:21:07.720 by keeping

00:21:08.500 Trump off

00:21:09.100 the election,

00:21:09.760 but they

00:21:10.220 also do it

00:21:10.820 by keeping

00:21:11.280 RFK Jr.

00:21:12.280 off the

00:21:13.400 effective,

00:21:14.820 effectively

00:21:15.460 end of the

00:21:16.040 election by

00:21:17.020 rule changes.

00:21:18.640 Do you

00:21:18.860 think the

00:21:19.200 Democrats are

00:21:19.860 aware that

00:21:22.200 they're keeping

00:21:22.700 their own

00:21:23.300 candidate,

00:21:24.120 you know,

00:21:24.320 somebody in

00:21:24.800 their own

00:21:25.060 party,

00:21:25.420 off the

00:21:25.780 ticket so

00:21:27.600 that it's

00:21:27.960 not an

00:21:28.280 option for

00:21:28.800 them?

00:21:29.820 Are they

00:21:30.420 aware of

00:21:30.840 that?

00:21:32.460 Yeah.

00:21:33.020 Yeah,

00:21:33.520 the Democrats

00:21:34.000 are basically

00:21:34.760 in an Iranian

00:21:35.560 system.

00:21:37.520 And if

00:21:38.040 you throw

00:21:38.400 in the

00:21:38.720 super

00:21:39.080 delegates,

00:21:39.800 that's even

00:21:40.320 more Iranian,

00:21:41.160 isn't it?

00:21:42.060 Because the

00:21:42.640 super delegates

00:21:43.280 kind of guarantee

00:21:44.080 that it doesn't

00:21:45.660 really matter

00:21:46.160 what the

00:21:46.520 voters wanted.

00:21:48.180 The super

00:21:49.040 delegates have

00:21:49.700 extra votes

00:21:50.460 and they're

00:21:50.780 appointed by

00:21:51.340 the party.

00:21:52.380 That's my

00:21:52.880 understanding.

00:21:54.080 And so

00:21:55.360 they're the

00:21:55.680 ones who

00:21:56.040 always are

00:21:57.000 the dominant

00:21:57.500 voice of

00:21:58.320 who becomes

00:21:58.880 the nominee.

00:22:00.060 So it's not

00:22:00.580 really even

00:22:01.320 the voters

00:22:01.780 getting involved.

00:22:04.020 You know,

00:22:04.320 I think that

00:22:04.700 would be a

00:22:05.040 good attack.

00:22:06.660 is just

00:22:07.680 to point

00:22:08.400 out in

00:22:09.180 the cleanest

00:22:09.780 possible way

00:22:10.440 to Democrats,

00:22:11.320 especially during,

00:22:12.520 imagine saying

00:22:13.280 this during a

00:22:13.900 debate.

00:22:16.340 You know,

00:22:16.900 Republicans,

00:22:17.860 you might not

00:22:18.520 like our

00:22:18.980 policies,

00:22:20.260 but I'll tell

00:22:20.880 you one thing

00:22:21.380 we're dedicated

00:22:21.940 to that Democrats

00:22:22.960 are not,

00:22:24.060 which is giving

00:22:24.740 the voters a

00:22:25.480 choice.

00:22:27.180 You know,

00:22:27.680 you could

00:22:28.060 actually vote

00:22:28.620 for any one

00:22:29.300 of our primary

00:22:30.000 candidates.

00:22:31.520 There are a lot

00:22:32.260 of them.

00:22:32.920 They all

00:22:33.280 have a full

00:22:33.760 shot.

00:22:35.340 But on

00:22:35.960 your side,

00:22:37.020 you're trying

00:22:37.440 to restrict

00:22:38.020 not only

00:22:38.500 who's on

00:22:38.900 the election,

00:22:39.680 who can run,

00:22:40.740 in the case

00:22:41.460 of Trump,

00:22:42.160 but you're

00:22:42.660 even restricting

00:22:43.380 who can run

00:22:43.980 on your own

00:22:44.440 team.

00:22:46.040 When your

00:22:47.060 main guy

00:22:47.720 is so old

00:22:48.740 that not

00:22:49.100 a single

00:22:49.500 person

00:22:49.940 is missing

00:22:52.180 the fact

00:22:52.580 that he's

00:22:52.860 not quite

00:22:53.320 all there.

00:22:55.320 So I

00:22:56.320 would think

00:22:56.680 that you

00:22:56.940 could make

00:22:57.300 Democrats

00:22:58.080 really mad

00:22:58.680 at Democrats

00:22:59.380 by telling

00:23:00.720 them that

00:23:01.100 their freedom

00:23:01.620 is being

00:23:02.020 taken away

00:23:02.560 by Democrats.

00:23:04.660 And that

00:23:04.920 what they

00:23:05.240 get for

00:23:05.580 that is

00:23:06.680 that there

00:23:06.980 are a number,

00:23:07.420 as Newt Gingrich

00:23:08.360 points out,

00:23:09.500 there are a

00:23:10.040 number of

00:23:10.400 things which

00:23:10.980 the citizenry

00:23:12.860 is about

00:23:14.480 70 to 80%

00:23:16.000 aligned on,

00:23:17.380 and it's

00:23:18.040 not happening.

00:23:19.420 Imagine that.

00:23:20.800 We live in

00:23:21.500 this, you

00:23:21.860 know,

00:23:22.120 republic that's

00:23:23.080 with a

00:23:23.720 democratic element

00:23:24.580 to it,

00:23:25.460 and the

00:23:27.940 public can

00:23:28.480 want something

00:23:29.020 by 70 to

00:23:29.880 80%

00:23:30.640 majority,

00:23:34.700 and our

00:23:35.600 Congress

00:23:35.960 won't give

00:23:36.440 it to us.

00:23:37.920 What does

00:23:38.460 that mean?

00:23:40.120 Well, it

00:23:40.520 means that

00:23:41.020 there's no

00:23:41.460 interest in

00:23:42.240 the people's

00:23:43.180 will being

00:23:43.800 the dominant

00:23:44.940 thing.

00:23:45.580 Now, I'm

00:23:46.080 totally in

00:23:46.700 favor of

00:23:47.480 the public

00:23:48.700 not getting

00:23:49.300 their way

00:23:49.840 in the

00:23:50.900 fog of

00:23:51.360 war.

00:23:52.700 That's

00:23:53.040 actually the

00:23:53.760 time,

00:23:54.160 that's the

00:23:54.480 exact time

00:23:54.960 you don't

00:23:55.220 want the

00:23:55.540 public

00:23:55.780 getting

00:23:56.060 involved.

00:23:56.900 Let's

00:23:57.180 say the

00:23:57.500 country is

00:23:57.940 attacked.

00:23:59.020 I don't

00:23:59.660 want any

00:23:59.920 voting.

00:24:01.500 No voting.

00:24:03.220 You know,

00:24:03.400 the president

00:24:04.240 just has to

00:24:04.820 take over,

00:24:06.060 set the

00:24:06.540 military on

00:24:07.180 its way,

00:24:07.800 you know,

00:24:07.960 do its

00:24:08.260 thing.

00:24:09.300 But if

00:24:10.320 it's something

00:24:10.700 we all

00:24:11.360 understand,

00:24:12.540 such as,

00:24:14.040 can schools

00:24:15.100 talk to

00:24:15.620 your kids

00:24:16.100 about things

00:24:17.900 you as a

00:24:18.740 parent don't

00:24:19.200 want them to

00:24:19.800 talk to your

00:24:20.200 kids about

00:24:20.700 without your

00:24:21.900 permission and

00:24:22.600 understanding?

00:24:23.920 Now, that's

00:24:24.320 something that

00:24:24.780 parents largely

00:24:25.820 are all on the

00:24:26.400 same page,

00:24:28.040 right?

00:24:28.600 They don't

00:24:29.100 want somebody

00:24:29.620 raising their

00:24:30.220 kid in a

00:24:30.740 way that's

00:24:31.060 opposite to

00:24:31.660 the way they

00:24:31.980 would have

00:24:32.200 raised them.

00:24:33.280 But we

00:24:33.880 don't even

00:24:34.180 get that.

00:24:35.660 The most

00:24:36.340 basic thing.

00:24:37.820 And we

00:24:38.200 understand that

00:24:38.920 completely.

00:24:39.920 That's not

00:24:40.440 like the

00:24:40.800 fog of war.

00:24:42.420 That's a

00:24:42.900 topic we all

00:24:43.560 understand.

00:24:45.340 And yet,

00:24:45.920 you can't get

00:24:46.420 that.

00:24:47.340 So whatever's

00:24:47.880 happening is

00:24:48.440 certainly not,

00:24:49.840 you know,

00:24:50.480 because Democrats

00:24:51.860 want it.

00:24:52.680 It's just

00:24:53.080 something that's

00:24:53.560 happening to

00:24:54.120 them.

00:24:54.380 So Vivek

00:24:59.420 did a big

00:25:00.400 post on

00:25:03.540 X about

00:25:04.160 the 14th

00:25:04.920 Amendment.

00:25:05.680 And one

00:25:06.140 of the

00:25:06.280 things that

00:25:06.600 he claims,

00:25:07.260 which I

00:25:07.580 also saw

00:25:08.200 in the

00:25:08.560 Wall Street

00:25:08.900 Journal,

00:25:09.320 so he's

00:25:09.560 not the

00:25:09.820 only one

00:25:10.140 saying it,

00:25:11.000 is that

00:25:12.020 the 14th

00:25:12.640 Amendment,

00:25:13.580 which

00:25:13.840 essentially

00:25:14.320 says that

00:25:15.860 you can't

00:25:16.820 be elected,

00:25:19.560 I don't

00:25:20.340 think it's

00:25:20.700 just for

00:25:21.080 president,

00:25:21.780 but I

00:25:22.000 think you

00:25:22.300 can't run

00:25:22.740 for office

00:25:23.320 if you're

00:25:24.860 a designated

00:25:26.340 insurrectionist

00:25:27.360 or something.

00:25:28.380 Now,

00:25:28.620 apparently this

00:25:29.160 came from

00:25:29.600 the Civil

00:25:30.020 War,

00:25:31.100 and it

00:25:31.360 had to

00:25:31.660 do with

00:25:32.260 the people

00:25:33.720 who had

00:25:33.980 literally

00:25:35.240 been part

00:25:35.860 of the

00:25:36.100 Civil War.

00:25:37.520 So if

00:25:38.340 you're putting

00:25:38.740 the country

00:25:39.160 together,

00:25:39.900 maybe they

00:25:40.380 said to

00:25:40.680 themselves,

00:25:41.240 we don't

00:25:41.500 want these

00:25:41.980 troublemakers,

00:25:43.000 and so they

00:25:43.300 had this

00:25:43.580 rule to

00:25:44.640 keep people

00:25:45.180 out who

00:25:45.800 had literally

00:25:46.600 been part

00:25:47.760 of an

00:25:48.060 armed

00:25:48.600 Civil War.

00:25:50.580 So that's

00:25:52.240 what they

00:25:52.500 were thinking

00:25:52.860 of with

00:25:53.300 the rule,

00:25:54.120 an armed

00:25:54.800 Civil War.

00:25:56.640 And they're

00:25:57.280 trying to

00:25:57.620 use this

00:25:58.060 for their

00:25:58.560 protest on

00:25:59.380 January 6th

00:26:00.440 to keep

00:26:01.160 Trump out

00:26:01.780 of office.

00:26:02.640 Oh,

00:26:02.920 he's an

00:26:03.300 insurrectionist

00:26:04.040 just like

00:26:04.460 the Civil

00:26:04.840 War.

00:26:06.720 All right.

00:26:07.720 But apparently

00:26:08.520 the way the

00:26:09.100 rule was

00:26:09.480 written,

00:26:09.920 it did not

00:26:10.720 include an

00:26:12.160 elected

00:26:12.580 president.

00:26:14.760 So it

00:26:15.380 seems pretty

00:26:16.280 clear that it

00:26:16.820 was written

00:26:17.160 for people

00:26:18.100 that he

00:26:18.560 might appoint,

00:26:19.880 but not

00:26:20.240 for himself.

00:26:22.020 So there

00:26:23.660 isn't the

00:26:24.100 slightest chance

00:26:24.780 that this

00:26:25.220 is, well,

00:26:26.600 who knows,

00:26:27.280 I'm not a

00:26:27.780 lawyer, but

00:26:28.420 it doesn't

00:26:28.820 look like

00:26:29.200 this is even

00:26:29.740 a good

00:26:30.060 try.

00:26:31.020 It's the

00:26:31.520 sort of

00:26:31.780 thing you

00:26:32.100 could only

00:26:32.520 even attempt

00:26:33.160 if you

00:26:33.580 owned the

00:26:33.980 media and

00:26:34.560 you owned

00:26:35.040 the courts.

00:26:36.940 Because if

00:26:38.080 you didn't

00:26:38.380 think you

00:26:38.720 owned the

00:26:39.080 media and

00:26:39.420 the courts,

00:26:39.880 you wouldn't

00:26:40.120 even try it.

00:26:40.680 It's too

00:26:41.000 stupid.

00:26:41.780 You couldn't

00:26:42.160 possibly succeed

00:26:43.080 on this

00:26:43.800 path.

00:26:44.960 But they're

00:26:45.380 trying it,

00:26:46.500 so they must

00:26:47.120 think they do

00:26:47.660 own the

00:26:48.100 courts, or

00:26:49.480 at least

00:26:49.720 the lower

00:26:50.060 courts, and

00:26:50.940 they must

00:26:51.240 think that

00:26:51.640 they do

00:26:51.940 own the

00:26:52.240 media, at

00:26:53.500 least for

00:26:54.020 the people

00:26:54.520 they're talking

00:26:54.960 to.

00:26:55.880 And I

00:26:56.240 think they're

00:26:56.540 right.

00:26:57.820 Well, speaking

00:26:58.560 of the media

00:26:59.060 and their

00:26:59.400 fake news,

00:27:00.300 have I ever

00:27:00.740 mentioned that

00:27:01.280 the first

00:27:01.740 story out of

00:27:02.360 a war zone

00:27:02.980 is always

00:27:03.400 fake?

00:27:04.680 And have I

00:27:05.060 ever mentioned

00:27:05.620 that all

00:27:06.160 news about

00:27:06.660 public figures

00:27:07.400 is fake?

00:27:08.780 All of it.

00:27:10.320 Now, it

00:27:10.640 might be based

00:27:11.160 on some true

00:27:11.760 facts, but

00:27:12.940 the context

00:27:13.580 is always

00:27:14.180 fake.

00:27:15.680 So if you

00:27:16.460 had something

00:27:17.520 about a

00:27:18.040 war that

00:27:19.500 also was

00:27:20.180 something about

00:27:20.720 a public

00:27:21.160 figure, what

00:27:22.600 are the odds

00:27:23.060 that the

00:27:23.400 first report

00:27:24.000 is true?

00:27:25.780 Zero.

00:27:27.480 Zero.

00:27:28.780 Because the

00:27:29.220 fog of war is

00:27:30.040 almost always

00:27:30.760 untrue.

00:27:31.580 Anything that's

00:27:32.340 like a new

00:27:32.820 report and of

00:27:33.460 a war zone.

00:27:34.520 And anything

00:27:35.140 about a public

00:27:35.820 figure is

00:27:37.300 almost certainly

00:27:38.060 not true in

00:27:39.180 its completeness,

00:27:40.020 right, in

00:27:40.500 context.

00:27:40.980 if you put

00:27:41.920 them together,

00:27:43.240 as in the

00:27:43.840 story about

00:27:44.420 Elon Musk

00:27:45.320 allegedly

00:27:46.380 turning off

00:27:47.220 Starlink in

00:27:49.080 a zone that

00:27:49.720 the Ukrainians

00:27:50.400 wanted to

00:27:50.780 use to send

00:27:51.460 a drone

00:27:52.420 submarines to

00:27:53.340 attack a

00:27:54.940 Russian fleet.

00:27:56.340 It was, I

00:27:56.760 think there

00:27:57.060 were, the

00:27:59.020 fleet was all

00:27:59.800 in the same

00:28:00.100 place or

00:28:00.540 something, or a

00:28:01.180 lot of them.

00:28:02.060 And the

00:28:03.840 original story

00:28:04.720 from CNN, I

00:28:06.400 think, was

00:28:07.180 that Elon

00:28:09.080 turned off

00:28:10.060 the coverage

00:28:11.680 in the area

00:28:12.220 they needed

00:28:12.680 for the

00:28:13.000 attack, because

00:28:14.240 he could

00:28:14.580 control where

00:28:15.240 Starlink is

00:28:15.940 effective, and

00:28:17.100 then they had

00:28:17.680 to cancel

00:28:18.100 their attack.

00:28:19.920 Do you

00:28:20.440 think that

00:28:20.740 was true?

00:28:23.240 No.

00:28:24.820 No, it

00:28:25.420 wasn't true.

00:28:27.080 The thing, the

00:28:28.380 area that they

00:28:29.040 needed covered

00:28:29.660 with Starlink

00:28:30.260 has never been

00:28:30.980 covered.

00:28:31.900 So they asked

00:28:32.740 them to turn

00:28:33.280 it on to

00:28:34.940 support a

00:28:35.600 major escalation

00:28:36.400 of the

00:28:36.920 war, such

00:28:38.480 an escalation

00:28:39.280 that it

00:28:40.080 could have

00:28:40.320 taken out

00:28:40.920 the Russian

00:28:41.940 fleet.

00:28:43.120 It basically

00:28:44.080 could have

00:28:44.480 been Russia's

00:28:45.140 Pearl Harbor.

00:28:48.060 How does

00:28:48.740 a country

00:28:49.140 respond when

00:28:49.900 you take

00:28:50.240 out their

00:28:50.560 naval fleet?

00:28:52.480 Well, how

00:28:52.840 did we

00:28:53.120 respond?

00:28:54.540 We actually

00:28:55.220 nuked Japan

00:28:56.360 twice.

00:29:00.720 Twice.

00:29:01.960 And did

00:29:02.240 we nuke

00:29:02.660 them only

00:29:04.420 because

00:29:05.140 that was

00:29:06.720 the way

00:29:07.020 to end

00:29:07.300 the war?

00:29:09.080 Well, some

00:29:09.900 people say

00:29:10.380 that.

00:29:11.340 Because we

00:29:12.640 would have

00:29:13.020 won anyway.

00:29:14.680 It just

00:29:15.100 would have

00:29:15.360 been bloodier

00:29:15.940 and taken

00:29:16.300 longer.

00:29:17.100 Bloodier on

00:29:17.760 our side.

00:29:18.980 And so

00:29:19.260 some people

00:29:19.700 said, no,

00:29:20.120 no, we

00:29:20.720 just didn't

00:29:21.120 care how

00:29:21.660 many died.

00:29:22.300 We just

00:29:22.600 didn't want

00:29:22.960 to lose

00:29:23.340 any more

00:29:23.680 Americans.

00:29:24.980 Maybe.

00:29:26.220 Here's my

00:29:26.680 take on

00:29:27.100 it.

00:29:27.780 We nuked

00:29:28.620 Japan because

00:29:29.580 they attacked

00:29:30.780 Pearl Harbor.

00:29:32.180 Everything

00:29:32.480 that happened

00:29:32.920 in between

00:29:33.440 was irrelevant

00:29:34.780 to that.

00:29:36.240 They attacked

00:29:37.080 our homeland,

00:29:38.580 sank our

00:29:39.000 fleet,

00:29:39.980 you're going

00:29:40.340 to get

00:29:40.560 nuked.

00:29:42.060 Sorry.

00:29:43.580 Everything

00:29:44.100 in between

00:29:44.640 didn't matter.

00:29:45.380 You're going

00:29:45.700 to get

00:29:45.920 nuked.

00:29:47.380 Especially

00:29:47.980 in those

00:29:48.340 days.

00:29:48.580 So if

00:29:52.620 this version

00:29:54.540 of the

00:29:54.920 story is

00:29:55.320 true,

00:29:56.220 that Elon

00:29:56.840 didn't turn

00:29:57.660 them off,

00:29:58.620 he simply

00:29:59.160 did not

00:29:59.680 agree to

00:30:00.860 turn them

00:30:01.260 on to

00:30:02.640 support the

00:30:04.120 biggest

00:30:04.360 escalation of

00:30:05.320 the war we

00:30:06.100 would have

00:30:06.400 seen,

00:30:06.820 probably.

00:30:07.900 Now even

00:30:08.440 the question

00:30:10.200 of what

00:30:10.560 those drones

00:30:11.280 were going

00:30:11.740 to do,

00:30:13.000 still fog

00:30:13.740 at war,

00:30:14.280 so maybe

00:30:15.340 it wasn't

00:30:15.940 a big

00:30:16.380 attack,

00:30:17.420 but they're

00:30:17.860 saying it

00:30:18.240 was.

00:30:18.840 I don't

00:30:19.160 know.

00:30:19.900 It's hard

00:30:20.180 to know.

00:30:21.120 But if

00:30:21.720 that's the

00:30:22.200 information

00:30:22.620 that Musk

00:30:23.660 was working

00:30:24.360 on, that

00:30:25.660 they were

00:30:25.920 going to

00:30:26.180 take out

00:30:26.600 much of

00:30:27.060 the Russian

00:30:27.560 fleet as

00:30:29.680 a preparation

00:30:30.400 to taking

00:30:31.020 Crimea,

00:30:32.680 and Musk

00:30:33.480 just said,

00:30:34.160 I'm out.

00:30:36.540 You can do

00:30:37.360 your war

00:30:37.700 without me

00:30:38.280 if you're

00:30:38.740 going to

00:30:38.880 do that.

00:30:40.280 Now,

00:30:41.520 did he

00:30:41.860 just stop

00:30:42.340 a nuclear

00:30:42.760 war?

00:30:46.040 Isn't

00:30:46.560 it weird

00:30:47.040 that someday

00:30:48.660 when the

00:30:49.180 story of

00:30:49.840 Elon Musk

00:30:50.480 is written,

00:30:51.960 it probably

00:30:53.560 won't include

00:30:54.420 he stopped

00:30:55.220 a nuclear

00:30:55.740 war,

00:30:57.420 because he

00:30:58.260 can't be

00:30:58.660 sure,

00:30:59.360 because you

00:30:59.640 don't know

00:30:59.960 what would

00:31:00.340 have happened

00:31:00.700 if he'd

00:31:01.060 done something

00:31:01.500 else.

00:31:02.700 But he

00:31:03.020 may have

00:31:03.320 just stopped

00:31:03.820 a nuclear

00:31:04.240 war,

00:31:05.520 one person.

00:31:10.380 We have

00:31:11.340 some really

00:31:11.800 brave people

00:31:12.820 in the

00:31:13.900 public sphere

00:31:14.680 at the

00:31:15.120 moment,

00:31:15.800 like,

00:31:16.140 seriously

00:31:16.980 brave

00:31:17.640 people.

00:31:18.620 RFK

00:31:19.040 Jr.,

00:31:19.800 obviously,

00:31:20.320 Trump,

00:31:20.800 obviously,

00:31:21.780 Elon Musk,

00:31:22.840 obviously,

00:31:23.580 and any

00:31:24.240 of us

00:31:24.500 who are

00:31:24.660 getting

00:31:24.960 canceled

00:31:25.700 are willing

00:31:27.480 to take

00:31:27.880 an arrow

00:31:28.220 in the

00:31:28.500 back for

00:31:28.960 something we

00:31:29.800 think is

00:31:30.300 worth doing.

00:31:32.140 So,

00:31:33.460 I don't

00:31:35.240 know,

00:31:35.780 to me this

00:31:36.320 was kind

00:31:36.740 of awesome,

00:31:37.760 and I

00:31:38.080 don't even

00:31:38.480 have an

00:31:38.860 opinion about

00:31:39.440 whether it

00:31:39.800 was militarily

00:31:40.600 good or bad,

00:31:41.380 or geopolitically

00:31:42.900 good or bad.

00:31:44.080 I just like

00:31:44.940 the fact that

00:31:45.680 when he was

00:31:46.340 asked,

00:31:47.680 as a private

00:31:48.400 citizen,

00:31:49.960 he told the

00:31:51.140 military of

00:31:52.580 NATO,

00:31:53.280 basically,

00:31:53.900 and Ukraine,

00:31:55.100 to go pound

00:31:56.060 sand,

00:31:56.560 and they had

00:31:56.940 to.

00:31:58.180 I kind of

00:31:58.700 like it.

00:31:59.960 It's pretty

00:32:00.340 baller.

00:32:03.120 But we'll

00:32:03.780 probably find out

00:32:04.460 more about

00:32:05.100 that,

00:32:05.800 and who

00:32:06.140 knows,

00:32:06.520 maybe even

00:32:07.060 the decision

00:32:08.740 might reverse.

00:32:09.660 We don't

00:32:09.920 know.

00:32:10.120 But I do

00:32:11.220 think that

00:32:11.660 Elon's

00:32:12.180 instinct,

00:32:13.800 that since

00:32:15.300 nothing much

00:32:15.960 is going to

00:32:16.360 change,

00:32:16.960 no matter

00:32:17.420 what happens,

00:32:18.760 that we

00:32:19.160 should be

00:32:19.480 talking instead

00:32:20.340 of escalating.

00:32:22.040 That makes

00:32:22.660 perfect sense.

00:32:24.020 Now,

00:32:24.180 remember I

00:32:24.600 told you,

00:32:25.880 you remember

00:32:26.320 my,

00:32:28.300 was it a

00:32:28.780 prediction?

00:32:29.260 I don't know

00:32:29.580 if it was

00:32:29.780 a prediction,

00:32:30.540 but I said

00:32:30.980 that the

00:32:31.680 big variable

00:32:32.340 of what's

00:32:33.200 going to

00:32:33.380 happen in

00:32:33.800 the Ukraine

00:32:34.360 situation is

00:32:35.480 probably the

00:32:36.140 number of

00:32:36.580 Ukrainian soldiers

00:32:37.760 that they can

00:32:39.220 put in the

00:32:39.740 field.

00:32:40.120 And that

00:32:41.140 that number

00:32:41.620 might,

00:32:42.280 you know,

00:32:42.600 just from

00:32:43.340 the deaths

00:32:43.820 and injuries

00:32:45.160 might dip

00:32:45.660 below a

00:32:46.460 sustainable

00:32:46.880 level and

00:32:47.580 that could

00:32:48.040 be the

00:32:48.300 big turning

00:32:48.900 point in

00:32:49.280 the world.

00:32:50.520 But I

00:32:51.100 said there

00:32:52.680 would be an

00:32:53.120 adjustment if

00:32:53.860 they were

00:32:54.060 running out of

00:32:54.520 humans.

00:32:55.720 They would

00:32:56.280 adjust it to

00:32:56.900 be more

00:32:57.480 technological.

00:32:59.660 And right

00:33:00.180 after I said

00:33:00.760 that,

00:33:01.800 it turns out

00:33:02.440 that there

00:33:02.720 was going to

00:33:03.060 be a fleet,

00:33:04.140 reportedly,

00:33:05.180 don't know if

00:33:05.720 it's true,

00:33:06.500 but reportedly a

00:33:07.600 fleet of drones,

00:33:08.740 submarine drones

00:33:10.400 that was going

00:33:12.020 to attack the

00:33:13.120 fleet.

00:33:13.900 Now,

00:33:14.140 presumably,

00:33:14.880 there were

00:33:15.060 going to be

00:33:15.340 a lot of

00:33:15.780 them,

00:33:16.800 more than

00:33:17.680 one,

00:33:18.460 so that there

00:33:19.260 would be

00:33:19.460 enough that

00:33:19.920 some got

00:33:20.320 through,

00:33:20.680 I guess,

00:33:21.400 kind of like

00:33:22.040 a wave of

00:33:22.620 technology

00:33:23.180 sending at

00:33:23.740 them.

00:33:24.540 So why we

00:33:26.640 haven't seen

00:33:27.080 that in the

00:33:27.600 air yet

00:33:28.300 might be

00:33:30.080 because they

00:33:30.560 can jam

00:33:31.360 them easier

00:33:31.900 or something.

00:33:32.320 Now,

00:33:33.300 here's the

00:33:33.580 other thing

00:33:33.900 I found

00:33:34.260 out about

00:33:34.640 Starlink,

00:33:35.820 Wall Street

00:33:36.580 Journal,

00:33:36.960 I think,

00:33:37.720 that Starlink

00:33:39.800 apparently can

00:33:42.160 keep ahead of

00:33:42.780 the jamming.

00:33:44.500 And the

00:33:44.960 other means

00:33:45.840 of communication

00:33:46.600 over there,

00:33:47.080 the Russians

00:33:47.420 are jamming

00:33:48.060 successfully,

00:33:49.420 but somehow

00:33:49.960 the Starlink

00:33:51.840 engineers can

00:33:52.840 keep ahead of

00:33:53.380 the jamming.

00:33:53.960 I don't know

00:33:54.300 how they're

00:33:54.560 doing it.

00:33:55.400 So it really

00:33:56.120 wouldn't even

00:33:56.560 be useful in

00:33:57.180 the war zone

00:33:57.660 if they could

00:33:58.200 jam it,

00:34:00.240 but that's

00:34:00.600 pretty impressive.

00:34:01.240 So I think

00:34:02.060 you're going

00:34:02.340 to see,

00:34:03.820 just as you

00:34:04.660 saw a larger

00:34:06.500 threat than

00:34:07.900 we've seen,

00:34:08.540 that would be

00:34:08.940 the largest

00:34:09.500 underwater drone

00:34:10.680 threat we've

00:34:11.280 ever seen,

00:34:11.860 if it was

00:34:12.280 going to be

00:34:12.540 a multi-ship

00:34:14.200 attack,

00:34:14.740 and it sounds

00:34:15.100 like it was.

00:34:17.200 But how long

00:34:18.120 before we see

00:34:18.780 the sky just

00:34:19.740 blackened with

00:34:21.220 drones?

00:34:22.780 Because you

00:34:23.360 know we've

00:34:23.820 got, we must

00:34:25.160 have thousands.

00:34:27.200 Don't you

00:34:27.580 think we have

00:34:28.000 like 20,000

00:34:29.000 drones just

00:34:30.400 sitting in a

00:34:30.860 warehouse?

00:34:31.940 You know,

00:34:32.160 waiting to be

00:34:33.220 operationalized?

00:34:34.440 I think so,

00:34:35.400 by now.

00:34:36.700 So I think

00:34:37.860 when the big

00:34:38.400 push comes,

00:34:39.700 if there is

00:34:40.200 going to be

00:34:40.520 one,

00:34:41.700 that you're

00:34:42.100 going to see

00:34:42.560 drones like

00:34:43.680 you've never

00:34:44.120 seen drones.

00:34:46.240 That's what I

00:34:46.880 think.

00:34:48.240 All right.

00:34:52.260 I started to

00:34:53.240 develop what I

00:34:54.060 call a guide to

00:34:54.980 understanding the

00:34:55.780 news.

00:34:56.040 That's my

00:34:56.480 working title.

00:34:57.620 But I'll tell

00:34:58.120 you the

00:34:58.600 categories.

00:34:59.840 categories.

00:35:01.020 So suppose

00:35:02.260 somebody just

00:35:03.120 didn't understand

00:35:04.060 how to evaluate

00:35:05.080 what they see

00:35:05.840 in the news,

00:35:06.440 to know what's

00:35:06.920 true and what

00:35:07.440 isn't.

00:35:08.200 Some of this

00:35:08.700 you've heard

00:35:09.040 before, but I'm

00:35:09.700 going to write

00:35:11.000 it up eventually

00:35:11.680 and put it in

00:35:12.160 one place.

00:35:13.880 So the first

00:35:14.560 thing you need

00:35:15.020 to know if

00:35:15.440 you're new at

00:35:15.920 this is the

00:35:17.180 designated liars.

00:35:19.580 The people who

00:35:20.440 they put in

00:35:21.520 front of the

00:35:21.840 camera when the

00:35:22.880 normal people

00:35:23.860 just can't lie

00:35:25.120 that much.

00:35:25.680 like all

00:35:26.980 politicians can

00:35:27.880 exaggerate and

00:35:28.800 hyperbole and

00:35:29.600 that, but when

00:35:30.740 you just have to

00:35:31.380 tell a complete

00:35:32.500 lie, a thing

00:35:34.000 you know did

00:35:34.900 not happen, and

00:35:36.320 look in the

00:35:36.720 camera and act

00:35:37.280 like it did,

00:35:38.020 oh yeah, that

00:35:38.720 totally happened.

00:35:39.880 I went into the

00:35:41.280 skiff and I

00:35:41.840 saw it myself.

00:35:43.280 When you need

00:35:43.980 that kind of

00:35:44.560 person, there are

00:35:45.300 only certain

00:35:45.900 personalities who

00:35:46.800 are willing to

00:35:47.300 do that.

00:35:48.460 So if you knew

00:35:49.160 who they were,

00:35:50.720 the moment you

00:35:51.900 saw them on

00:35:52.380 TV, you'd say

00:35:53.140 to yourself, oh,

00:35:54.500 that's a signal.

00:35:55.680 That's a signal

00:35:56.800 that these are

00:35:57.320 not serious

00:35:58.560 people.

00:35:59.500 So here's a

00:36:00.240 starting list.

00:36:01.860 Adam Schiff,

00:36:03.280 Eric Swalwell,

00:36:04.860 John Brennan,

00:36:06.520 James Clapper,

00:36:08.420 Lawrence Tribe,

00:36:09.680 I'm adding him,

00:36:11.200 Phil Bump,

00:36:12.920 Jonathan Greenblatt

00:36:14.120 of the ADL,

00:36:15.780 and I'm going to

00:36:16.600 add Abby Phillips

00:36:17.500 of CNN.

00:36:19.600 She's a promoter

00:36:20.540 of the Fine

00:36:20.940 People Oaks.

00:36:25.680 So that's the

00:36:26.540 starting point.

00:36:27.120 Now you're

00:36:27.620 probably going to

00:36:28.020 say to me,

00:36:28.580 but Scott,

00:36:29.820 oh, Goldman.

00:36:31.140 Yeah, Goldman's

00:36:32.280 got that, Goldman.

00:36:36.340 Who I'm not

00:36:37.140 going to add

00:36:37.760 is leadership.

00:36:40.060 So I'm not

00:36:40.780 going to add

00:36:41.220 Pelosi or

00:36:42.660 Schumer,

00:36:44.220 because they're

00:36:44.960 involved in

00:36:45.560 all questions.

00:36:47.700 So they're not

00:36:48.540 a good signal.

00:36:49.600 They might also

00:36:50.260 be liars,

00:36:51.180 but they don't

00:36:51.660 signal anything

00:36:52.360 because they're

00:36:52.740 involved in

00:36:53.200 everything.

00:36:53.500 All right.

00:36:56.160 But I'll

00:36:56.840 need some...

00:36:59.500 No, it's

00:37:00.580 harder than

00:37:01.040 you think.

00:37:01.800 And the

00:37:02.060 news people,

00:37:03.480 you never know

00:37:04.060 what they

00:37:04.300 actually believe

00:37:05.000 is true.

00:37:07.120 Oh, yeah.

00:37:09.300 Well, I don't

00:37:10.060 want to just

00:37:10.460 say it's all

00:37:11.440 the hosts

00:37:12.660 of MSNBC

00:37:13.580 and all the

00:37:14.200 hosts of CNN,

00:37:15.460 because one

00:37:16.340 of my other

00:37:16.960 categories here

00:37:20.600 is which

00:37:21.640 entities are

00:37:22.780 true.

00:37:23.500 So the

00:37:24.560 fake news

00:37:25.080 on the

00:37:25.420 left,

00:37:26.100 the ones

00:37:26.380 you have

00:37:26.600 to worry

00:37:26.920 about,

00:37:27.920 would be

00:37:28.260 the New

00:37:28.560 York Times,

00:37:29.780 the Washington

00:37:30.220 Post,

00:37:31.180 MSNBC,

00:37:32.460 CNN,

00:37:33.540 and the

00:37:33.920 Associated Press.

00:37:36.080 I would say

00:37:36.940 that none of

00:37:37.460 them are even

00:37:38.160 slightly credible

00:37:39.120 on political

00:37:40.180 news.

00:37:41.120 Would you

00:37:41.420 agree?

00:37:43.260 None of

00:37:43.880 them are

00:37:44.220 at all.

00:37:45.980 And I would

00:37:46.380 say on the

00:37:46.780 right, you'd

00:37:47.320 be looking at

00:37:47.880 Fox News and

00:37:49.260 Gateway Pundit

00:37:50.180 as your

00:37:51.560 fake news

00:37:52.640 places.

00:37:53.500 Would you

00:37:54.480 agree with

00:37:54.800 that?

00:37:57.880 Now, the

00:37:58.520 trouble with

00:37:58.920 Gateway Pundit

00:37:59.680 is I think

00:38:00.340 they sometimes

00:38:00.960 have scoops,

00:38:02.400 but more

00:38:03.480 often it's

00:38:05.040 stuff that

00:38:05.400 doesn't check

00:38:05.920 out.

00:38:06.640 Well, I don't

00:38:06.980 know if it's

00:38:07.300 more often.

00:38:07.980 It's just,

00:38:09.020 you know,

00:38:09.240 they're lower

00:38:10.220 credibility

00:38:10.780 entities.

00:38:11.580 Yeah, maybe

00:38:16.460 NPR.

00:38:16.800 I don't want to

00:38:17.520 just, I

00:38:18.140 didn't want to

00:38:18.600 just list

00:38:19.140 every left

00:38:20.000 leading entity.

00:38:22.140 Right?

00:38:23.100 That, because

00:38:24.440 you could go

00:38:24.920 deeper.

00:38:26.280 I mean, basically

00:38:26.860 every entity

00:38:27.640 has a bias, so

00:38:28.700 I don't want to

00:38:29.140 just say, here's

00:38:30.420 all of the

00:38:30.820 biases.

00:38:32.020 I want the

00:38:32.680 ones that are

00:38:33.100 really signals.

00:38:34.840 You know, the

00:38:35.080 ones you have to

00:38:35.540 worry about.

00:38:36.220 Because if it's

00:38:37.480 not in the

00:38:38.180 New York Times

00:38:38.740 and the

00:38:39.000 Washington Post,

00:38:40.100 it probably

00:38:41.140 won't be

00:38:41.520 anywhere else.

00:38:43.600 Right?

00:38:44.420 But if it's

00:38:45.060 in one of

00:38:45.860 these entities,

00:38:46.780 it's probably

00:38:47.180 going to be

00:38:47.520 everywhere.

00:38:49.900 All right, so

00:38:50.520 and then, of

00:38:53.100 course, the

00:38:53.400 most important

00:38:53.900 part was I

00:38:55.300 was teaching,

00:38:55.880 I'll teach

00:38:56.240 people how to

00:38:57.100 know how

00:38:57.800 credible any

00:38:58.540 story is based

00:39:00.080 on its

00:39:00.420 elements.

00:39:01.540 For

00:39:02.060 example,

00:39:02.740 these are

00:39:06.440 things that

00:39:06.940 are probably

00:39:07.640 true.

00:39:08.940 Not necessarily,

00:39:10.180 but just a

00:39:11.400 hint that it's

00:39:11.900 probably true.

00:39:12.940 If one side,

00:39:14.360 either the left

00:39:14.900 or the right,

00:39:15.400 hides the

00:39:15.960 story.

00:39:17.800 So it's

00:39:18.420 different if

00:39:18.840 one side says

00:39:19.460 it's true and

00:39:20.000 the other side

00:39:20.440 says it's not.

00:39:21.380 But if one

00:39:21.900 just won't

00:39:22.400 mention it,

00:39:23.640 it's probably

00:39:23.960 true.

00:39:26.160 Probably

00:39:26.600 true.

00:39:27.900 All right.

00:39:29.060 If both

00:39:29.820 sides reported

00:39:30.640 the same,

00:39:31.140 if the

00:39:32.680 left and

00:39:33.080 the right

00:39:33.440 entities

00:39:34.120 reported the

00:39:35.160 same,

00:39:36.140 probably

00:39:36.460 true.

00:39:37.460 Probably

00:39:37.680 true.

00:39:39.100 How about

00:39:39.860 if all

00:39:40.960 studies for

00:39:42.540 years and

00:39:43.040 years are

00:39:43.560 pointing in

00:39:44.000 the same

00:39:44.280 direction?

00:39:45.620 Like every

00:39:46.340 time you do

00:39:46.780 a study,

00:39:47.940 no matter

00:39:48.680 how you

00:39:49.060 slice it,

00:39:49.720 no matter

00:39:49.980 what you

00:39:50.340 study,

00:39:51.380 same

00:39:51.680 direction.

00:39:52.740 For

00:39:52.940 example,

00:39:53.740 cigarettes

00:39:54.200 causing

00:39:54.640 lung

00:39:54.920 cancer.

00:39:56.000 I'm

00:39:56.200 pretty sure

00:39:56.700 that every

00:39:57.200 way you

00:39:57.660 study that,

00:39:58.640 you get

00:39:58.860 the same

00:39:59.220 answer.

00:40:00.280 That

00:40:00.780 means it's

00:40:01.200 probably

00:40:01.560 true,

00:40:02.480 but not

00:40:02.920 necessarily.

00:40:04.740 Because we've

00:40:05.360 seen,

00:40:05.980 for example,

00:40:07.160 alcohol is

00:40:07.880 good for

00:40:08.300 you in

00:40:08.700 small

00:40:09.040 quantities.

00:40:11.220 Those

00:40:11.740 studies

00:40:12.120 would

00:40:12.340 forever,

00:40:13.300 but of

00:40:13.680 course

00:40:13.900 were not

00:40:14.280 true.

00:40:17.360 How about

00:40:17.940 if one

00:40:21.240 narrative

00:40:21.740 predicts

00:40:22.520 better than

00:40:22.920 the other,

00:40:24.280 that's more

00:40:24.760 likely true,

00:40:25.960 or you

00:40:26.340 could treat

00:40:26.720 it as

00:40:27.000 true.

00:40:27.680 So there

00:40:28.060 are some

00:40:28.360 frames that

00:40:29.040 just don't,

00:40:29.560 or narratives

00:40:30.300 that just

00:40:30.660 never predict

00:40:31.380 anything,

00:40:32.380 and some

00:40:32.800 that predict

00:40:33.180 everything.

00:40:34.400 So if you

00:40:35.360 hear one

00:40:35.680 that predicts

00:40:36.200 everything,

00:40:36.600 it's one of

00:40:36.920 those types,

00:40:37.780 such as

00:40:38.500 follow the

00:40:39.160 money.

00:40:41.160 Follow the

00:40:41.840 money is a

00:40:42.420 pretty good

00:40:42.920 thing for

00:40:43.300 predicting,

00:40:44.560 so it also

00:40:45.280 is a good

00:40:45.660 thing for

00:40:45.980 truth.

00:40:48.640 Suppose you

00:40:49.240 have a

00:40:49.520 witness who

00:40:50.980 has direct

00:40:51.560 knowledge of

00:40:52.100 a situation

00:40:52.660 and is

00:40:53.380 under oath,

00:40:55.120 and they're

00:40:56.320 public.

00:40:57.180 You know

00:40:57.560 who they are,

00:40:58.120 they're under

00:40:58.580 oath,

00:40:58.900 and they

00:40:59.100 have direct

00:40:59.580 knowledge.

00:41:00.080 They didn't

00:41:00.300 hear it from

00:41:00.780 somebody,

00:41:01.100 they saw it

00:41:01.440 themselves.

00:41:02.260 Pretty good.

00:41:03.500 Pretty good.

00:41:04.500 Not guaranteed.

00:41:05.560 If you have

00:41:06.100 two of them,

00:41:07.320 and they're not

00:41:07.880 friends or

00:41:08.360 something,

00:41:08.900 and they've

00:41:09.300 seen it from

00:41:09.740 different angles,

00:41:10.900 say the same

00:41:11.520 thing, that's

00:41:12.900 much more likely

00:41:13.640 to be true.

00:41:15.780 All right,

00:41:16.100 and if you

00:41:16.440 have witnesses

00:41:17.020 plus documents,

00:41:19.540 then you're in

00:41:20.140 real good shape.

00:41:21.280 So if you've

00:41:21.780 got somebody who

00:41:22.640 was there,

00:41:23.280 they're public,

00:41:24.460 they saw it

00:41:24.940 directly,

00:41:25.980 but also there's

00:41:26.780 an email or

00:41:27.500 something that

00:41:28.100 supports them,

00:41:29.940 you're in pretty

00:41:30.800 good shape in

00:41:31.480 that case,

00:41:31.880 but that's

00:41:32.140 rare.

00:41:33.840 The Hunter

00:41:35.220 laptop and

00:41:36.120 that stuff,

00:41:36.980 that does fall

00:41:37.660 into that

00:41:38.040 category of

00:41:39.300 direct witnesses

00:41:40.020 and lots of

00:41:41.200 documents.

00:41:41.960 That's about as

00:41:42.980 true as anything

00:41:43.760 can get.

00:41:46.240 Here's some

00:41:46.880 things that are

00:41:47.380 more like a

00:41:47.940 coin flip.

00:41:49.320 Could be true,

00:41:50.240 maybe not.

00:41:51.100 One scientific

00:41:52.080 paper that has

00:41:53.920 not yet been

00:41:54.580 peer-reviewed,

00:41:55.960 you don't

00:41:57.520 really know

00:41:57.940 anything about

00:41:58.500 it.

00:41:59.240 How about

00:41:59.560 one scientific

00:42:00.320 paper that

00:42:00.920 has been

00:42:01.420 peer-reviewed?

00:42:02.740 Exactly the

00:42:03.460 same.

00:42:04.220 The peer-review

00:42:04.820 does not give

00:42:05.720 you any benefit

00:42:06.560 in terms of

00:42:07.320 credibility.

00:42:08.440 We used to

00:42:08.940 think it did,

00:42:09.920 and they could

00:42:10.740 find really big

00:42:11.900 mistakes, but if

00:42:13.780 somebody publishes

00:42:15.160 a scientific

00:42:15.700 paper without a

00:42:16.780 peer-review, that

00:42:18.220 sort of is a

00:42:18.800 peer-review, because

00:42:20.420 everybody's going to

00:42:20.980 look at it, and

00:42:21.760 you would pretty

00:42:22.660 soon see if

00:42:23.320 there are strong

00:42:24.260 objections.

00:42:26.720 So it's sort

00:42:27.580 of a bad

00:42:28.480 peer-review, but

00:42:29.140 it's kind of

00:42:29.540 one.

00:42:31.040 How about if

00:42:31.500 something's a

00:42:32.120 meta-analysis?

00:42:34.480 If they say,

00:42:35.700 well, the

00:42:36.160 individual studies

00:42:37.080 weren't that

00:42:37.520 strong, but when

00:42:38.980 we summed them

00:42:39.660 together and

00:42:40.240 did our magic

00:42:41.320 called a

00:42:41.960 meta-analysis,

00:42:43.700 the results are

00:42:45.080 very clear once

00:42:46.040 you do the

00:42:46.420 meta-analysis.

00:42:47.300 Definitely one

00:42:47.920 direction.

00:42:49.640 That is no

00:42:52.240 more than a

00:42:52.800 coin flip.

00:42:54.060 Meta-analysis is

00:42:55.260 somebody deciding

00:42:56.100 what's in the

00:42:56.780 study and what

00:42:57.340 isn't, so it's

00:42:58.340 not a science.

00:42:59.300 It's somebody

00:42:59.980 deciding what's

00:43:00.720 in and what

00:43:01.080 isn't.

00:43:02.240 50% chance that

00:43:03.900 they got it

00:43:04.280 right.

00:43:05.660 How about if

00:43:06.420 there was a

00:43:06.820 video or audio

00:43:07.760 of an event

00:43:08.660 that people

00:43:10.360 question really

00:43:11.140 happened?

00:43:11.740 A video and

00:43:13.400 or audio of

00:43:14.380 the event.

00:43:16.440 No more than

00:43:17.280 a 50% chance,

00:43:19.140 because for

00:43:19.980 everything that's

00:43:20.980 a real video of

00:43:21.920 a real event just

00:43:22.700 the way it

00:43:23.080 happened, there's

00:43:24.100 at least one that

00:43:25.740 is misleading.

00:43:27.360 At least one,

00:43:28.420 maybe more,

00:43:29.520 because video is

00:43:30.260 the most misleading

00:43:30.980 thing in the

00:43:31.460 world.

00:43:32.080 Remember when we

00:43:32.780 used to think a

00:43:33.940 photograph doesn't

00:43:34.720 lie?

00:43:36.460 I'm old enough to

00:43:37.620 think that was

00:43:38.660 real.

00:43:39.580 Oh, a photograph

00:43:40.180 doesn't lie.

00:43:41.000 Of course a

00:43:41.760 photograph lies.

00:43:43.580 A video lies even

00:43:44.720 better, and an

00:43:45.880 audio lies best of

00:43:47.060 all.

00:43:47.840 They're all liars.

00:43:49.260 Yeah, so 50-50,

00:43:50.320 even if there's a

00:43:51.160 video or an

00:43:51.640 audio.

00:43:52.860 All right, and

00:43:53.400 here are the

00:43:53.740 ones where you

00:43:54.560 could pretty much

00:43:55.620 make a lot of

00:43:57.300 money if you could

00:43:57.940 bet on these

00:43:58.700 being fake.

00:44:00.200 So these are the

00:44:00.880 things that probably

00:44:02.560 are fake.

00:44:04.200 Anything where

00:44:04.980 lots of money is

00:44:05.780 involved.

00:44:07.640 The news is

00:44:08.780 never real when

00:44:10.360 lots of money is

00:44:11.160 involved, whether

00:44:12.760 it's a war or a

00:44:14.840 pandemic.

00:44:15.240 As soon as

00:44:16.900 there's lots of

00:44:17.620 money involved, you

00:44:19.960 just don't believe

00:44:20.940 anything.

00:44:24.260 Let's see, how

00:44:25.120 about if both

00:44:26.780 CNN and Fox

00:44:27.680 News say something

00:44:28.400 didn't happen, then

00:44:29.580 it probably didn't.

00:44:31.160 If you've got one

00:44:32.260 anonymous source,

00:44:33.780 probably fake.

00:44:35.480 One anonymous

00:44:36.340 source is almost

00:44:37.520 like the classic

00:44:39.740 fake news, one

00:44:42.200 anonymous source.

00:44:43.380 And usually you'll

00:44:44.040 see that in a book.

00:44:45.580 Well, there's a

00:44:46.320 book about what

00:44:47.020 happened behind the

00:44:48.480 curtains.

00:44:49.020 I've got this one

00:44:49.600 anonymous source.

00:44:50.420 They're never real.

00:44:52.020 How about two

00:44:53.600 anonymous sources?

00:44:55.040 Hmm.

00:44:56.500 We don't know who

00:44:57.240 either are, but

00:44:58.460 there are two of

00:44:59.140 them, and they say

00:45:00.240 the same thing.

00:45:01.960 Nope.

00:45:03.080 Probably not true.

00:45:05.160 They're just adding

00:45:06.020 the second fake one,

00:45:07.060 so it sounds more

00:45:07.660 true.

00:45:08.260 Now, there's no

00:45:08.840 credibility to two

00:45:10.320 anonymous people.

00:45:12.560 No credibility.

00:45:14.040 How about the only

00:45:16.100 photos you can get

00:45:17.160 are fuzzy.

00:45:19.260 You just can't get a

00:45:20.500 clean photograph.

00:45:22.200 Bigfoot, UFOs.

00:45:24.460 Probably not true.

00:45:26.060 Probably not true.

00:45:27.420 All those photographs,

00:45:28.700 can't get a good one.

00:45:29.600 They're always a little

00:45:30.140 bit fuzzy.

00:45:32.320 How about a

00:45:33.220 randomized controlled

00:45:34.140 trial funded by

00:45:35.840 somebody who has an

00:45:37.720 interest in the

00:45:38.260 outcome?

00:45:39.180 It's randomized and

00:45:40.420 controlled.

00:45:40.960 That's the gold

00:45:41.500 standard.

00:45:41.920 You can't

00:45:43.720 complain if it's

00:45:44.440 randomized and

00:45:45.520 controlled, and

00:45:47.020 it's a big study.

00:45:49.460 Yes, you can.

00:45:50.500 If it's funded by

00:45:51.560 somebody who has an

00:45:52.240 interest in the

00:45:52.780 outcome, it has no

00:45:53.920 evidentiary value.

00:45:55.760 None.

00:45:57.260 You just imagine

00:45:58.200 that you can't get

00:45:59.640 that many scientists

00:46:00.400 to be weasels, but

00:46:02.800 we know we can.

00:46:03.980 You can get the

00:46:04.820 entire world of

00:46:05.580 scientists to be as

00:46:06.340 weasel as you want.

00:46:07.500 You just threaten

00:46:08.100 their money.

00:46:08.500 Well, you'll never

00:46:10.240 get a job again

00:46:10.880 unless you agree

00:46:11.620 with the mainstream.

00:46:13.060 Okay, I agree.

00:46:14.860 It's easy.

00:46:16.920 How about the

00:46:19.500 best argument is

00:46:20.620 that the experts

00:46:21.300 are on the same

00:46:22.040 side?

00:46:24.020 That's our best

00:46:24.840 argument.

00:46:25.500 I'll grant you

00:46:26.520 that the data we're

00:46:27.760 using, people

00:46:28.620 question it.

00:46:29.800 Some people say

00:46:30.500 it's good.

00:46:31.160 Some people say

00:46:31.720 it's bad.

00:46:32.700 But the thing you

00:46:33.660 should listen to is

00:46:35.220 that the experts have

00:46:36.240 a good sense of

00:46:37.240 which ones are

00:46:38.160 good and what's

00:46:38.720 bad.

00:46:39.600 You as a layperson

00:46:40.580 can't really tell.

00:46:41.580 But the experts,

00:46:42.360 they know which

00:46:42.780 studies to believe

00:46:43.600 and which studies

00:46:45.060 not to believe.

00:46:45.820 So under those

00:46:46.740 conditions, if

00:46:48.120 somebody says

00:46:48.860 90%, I'll just

00:46:50.720 pick a number.

00:46:51.460 Let's say somebody

00:46:52.020 says 97% of

00:46:53.720 experts are on

00:46:54.920 the same side.

00:46:56.720 But the data

00:46:57.700 is in question

00:46:59.060 by other people.

00:47:01.240 That means that

00:47:02.320 they have a

00:47:02.920 monetary interest

00:47:03.860 in it.

00:47:04.920 And therefore,

00:47:05.500 their opinions

00:47:05.960 are worthless.

00:47:06.440 97% of

00:47:09.280 experts agree

00:47:10.160 in the context

00:47:11.900 where the data

00:47:13.780 itself that

00:47:14.400 they're looking

00:47:14.780 at, you're

00:47:16.160 not quite

00:47:16.620 confident is

00:47:17.320 real.

00:47:18.380 In that condition,

00:47:19.560 97% of

00:47:20.560 scientists agree.

00:47:21.620 It just means

00:47:22.100 they're being

00:47:22.400 paid to agree.

00:47:24.780 Indirectly,

00:47:25.560 meaning they'd

00:47:26.140 never get a job

00:47:26.840 if they disagreed.

00:47:28.480 That's all it

00:47:29.340 means.

00:47:30.200 So you should

00:47:31.040 reverse your

00:47:31.960 instinct when

00:47:33.680 you see 97%

00:47:34.880 of experts

00:47:35.440 agree.

00:47:36.460 That should

00:47:36.940 tell you that

00:47:37.620 it's a fake.

00:47:38.620 It shouldn't

00:47:39.060 tell you it's

00:47:39.420 true.

00:47:41.400 If one scientist

00:47:42.540 gives you a

00:47:43.500 great argument,

00:47:45.300 that would be a

00:47:46.660 little bit more

00:47:47.200 persuasive.

00:47:48.420 One person with

00:47:49.360 a great argument

00:47:50.280 that you could

00:47:50.920 check.

00:47:51.580 It's like, oh,

00:47:52.020 let me check

00:47:52.420 that.

00:47:52.680 Well, he's

00:47:53.240 right about

00:47:53.560 that.

00:47:55.520 But 97%,

00:47:56.900 that's just a

00:47:58.000 huge raging

00:47:59.380 signal of

00:48:00.140 fakery.

00:48:00.700 here's some

00:48:02.840 other tricks.

00:48:07.700 So here are

00:48:08.640 the ones that

00:48:09.060 I call pure

00:48:09.800 propaganda.

00:48:11.780 If your news

00:48:12.860 mentions that

00:48:13.940 there are a lot

00:48:14.360 of heat deaths

00:48:15.360 because of

00:48:16.560 climate change,

00:48:18.140 but they never

00:48:19.200 mention how many

00:48:20.020 cold deaths

00:48:20.880 there are,

00:48:21.560 so that you know

00:48:22.340 both the costs

00:48:23.040 and the benefits,

00:48:24.760 if they always

00:48:25.800 leave out one

00:48:26.620 of those sides,

00:48:28.040 they always leave

00:48:28.940 out the costs,

00:48:29.860 like always,

00:48:30.700 or they always

00:48:32.180 leave out the

00:48:32.720 benefits,

00:48:33.780 always,

00:48:34.920 when it would

00:48:35.340 be easy to

00:48:35.900 mention that

00:48:36.380 they both

00:48:36.740 exist,

00:48:37.480 that's propaganda.

00:48:39.320 So if somebody

00:48:40.160 tells you we're

00:48:41.300 in trouble because

00:48:42.100 some places are

00:48:43.320 getting hotter,

00:48:44.820 without mentioning

00:48:45.680 that that would

00:48:47.500 be better for

00:48:48.240 some places,

00:48:49.600 that's not any

00:48:50.700 kind of news,

00:48:51.620 that's just

00:48:52.000 propaganda.

00:48:53.380 So look for

00:48:53.980 the dog not

00:48:55.520 barking,

00:48:56.120 the part they

00:48:56.560 leave out.

00:48:57.780 If they're

00:48:58.600 arguing by

00:48:59.300 analogies instead

00:49:00.400 of data,

00:49:01.720 that's a sign

00:49:03.400 for no real

00:49:04.300 argument.

00:49:05.660 People don't

00:49:06.340 use analogies

00:49:07.560 when they have

00:49:08.860 real arguments.

00:49:11.140 You can use

00:49:11.880 analogy just to

00:49:12.940 paint a general

00:49:14.260 picture so

00:49:14.920 somebody knows

00:49:15.380 what you're

00:49:15.640 talking about,

00:49:16.320 but that's not

00:49:16.900 the argument.

00:49:18.760 An analogy can

00:49:19.760 get you in the

00:49:20.860 general zip code

00:49:22.380 of what you're

00:49:22.840 both talking

00:49:23.340 about,

00:49:23.640 but it

00:49:24.900 can't win

00:49:25.740 in a debate

00:49:26.640 because the

00:49:27.080 analogy is

00:49:27.600 literally a

00:49:28.520 different thing.

00:49:30.360 You can't

00:49:30.960 learn about

00:49:31.340 this thing

00:49:31.780 by looking

00:49:32.160 at a

00:49:32.480 different

00:49:32.700 thing.

00:49:36.820 So if

00:49:37.620 you see

00:49:38.020 people leaning

00:49:38.760 on analogies

00:49:39.640 such as

00:49:40.900 this is just

00:49:41.940 like Hitler,

00:49:44.020 that's probably

00:49:45.000 not real.

00:49:45.460 if you see

00:49:48.800 too much

00:49:49.200 whataboutism,

00:49:50.400 that's a sign

00:49:51.980 of a weak

00:49:52.540 argument.

00:49:53.980 If the

00:49:54.640 response to

00:49:55.660 criticism is

00:49:56.500 whataboutism,

00:49:57.240 that's the

00:49:57.580 first response.

00:49:58.880 Now,

00:49:59.080 whataboutism is

00:49:59.900 perfectly

00:50:00.480 legitimate if

00:50:02.460 it's not your

00:50:02.960 only point.

00:50:04.520 If it's your

00:50:05.500 go-to,

00:50:06.300 then you don't

00:50:06.780 have an argument.

00:50:08.240 There's no

00:50:08.600 argument if

00:50:09.140 you have to

00:50:10.220 rely on

00:50:10.800 whataboutism,

00:50:11.820 you don't have

00:50:12.180 anything.

00:50:12.420 And here's

00:50:16.020 some tricks

00:50:16.500 that the

00:50:17.000 general public

00:50:18.140 doesn't know

00:50:18.600 about.

00:50:18.840 You know

00:50:19.120 about all

00:50:19.460 these.

00:50:20.360 When the

00:50:20.920 headline doesn't

00:50:21.580 match the

00:50:21.980 story, because

00:50:23.120 you know people

00:50:23.580 don't read the

00:50:24.140 story, they

00:50:24.720 just look at

00:50:25.120 the headline.

00:50:27.140 That trick is

00:50:28.360 just so classic.

00:50:30.020 And if you

00:50:30.820 are worried

00:50:31.500 about the

00:50:31.860 headline not

00:50:32.380 matching the

00:50:32.920 story, where

00:50:33.580 do you look

00:50:34.280 in the body

00:50:35.420 of the story

00:50:36.040 to find the

00:50:37.260 part where

00:50:37.640 they kind of

00:50:38.180 admit the

00:50:38.600 headline doesn't

00:50:39.180 match the

00:50:39.540 story?

00:50:40.420 It's at the

00:50:40.780 end.

00:50:42.420 So the

00:50:43.620 way to

00:50:44.020 read the

00:50:44.500 news is

00:50:45.540 you read

00:50:45.780 the headline

00:50:46.320 and then

00:50:46.840 ignore it,

00:50:48.440 because headlines

00:50:49.020 don't match

00:50:49.540 stories.

00:50:50.400 You read the

00:50:50.980 first paragraph,

00:50:52.520 because all

00:50:53.320 good writers,

00:50:54.200 pretty much

00:50:54.720 everybody in

00:50:55.240 the news

00:50:55.560 business,

00:50:56.340 will tell you

00:50:57.040 the basic

00:50:57.480 thing in the

00:50:58.000 first paragraph,

00:50:59.380 which might

00:51:00.120 be the

00:51:00.420 misleading thing.

00:51:01.580 It might

00:51:01.840 be misleading,

00:51:02.680 but it'll

00:51:02.920 give you the

00:51:03.400 thing.

00:51:04.300 Everything

00:51:04.700 that's in

00:51:05.160 the middle

00:51:05.500 you can

00:51:05.900 ignore,

00:51:07.100 and then you

00:51:07.500 go to the

00:51:07.860 last paragraph

00:51:08.520 where they'll

00:51:10.040 tell you that

00:51:10.560 everything you

00:51:11.100 read was

00:51:11.600 bullshit.

00:51:13.100 Very

00:51:13.500 common.

00:51:14.660 It'll be

00:51:14.900 like,

00:51:15.980 we found

00:51:16.680 out that

00:51:17.260 climate change

00:51:18.720 is going to

00:51:19.060 make the

00:51:19.400 butterflies turn

00:51:20.280 vicious.

00:51:21.240 The

00:51:21.360 butterflies,

00:51:22.120 the scientists

00:51:22.520 say,

00:51:23.340 will be

00:51:23.720 attacking people

00:51:24.460 and tearing

00:51:24.880 their lungs

00:51:25.400 out,

00:51:25.960 so we're

00:51:26.480 all going

00:51:26.760 to die

00:51:27.200 from the

00:51:27.960 butterfly

00:51:28.340 attacks.

00:51:29.300 And then you

00:51:29.660 get to the

00:51:30.040 last paragraph

00:51:30.680 and it'll be,

00:51:31.720 but it should

00:51:32.280 be noted that

00:51:32.960 butterflies do

00:51:33.720 not have the

00:51:34.140 mass or

00:51:34.600 strength to hurt

00:51:35.560 anybody whatsoever,

00:51:36.340 and we would

00:51:37.020 just use insecticides

00:51:38.040 and make them

00:51:38.480 go away.

00:51:38.860 And the

00:51:40.580 whole story

00:51:40.960 was nothing.

00:51:43.180 They'll debunk

00:51:44.040 their own story

00:51:44.600 in the last

00:51:45.000 paragraph.

00:51:45.660 You have to

00:51:46.300 read the

00:51:46.620 last paragraph

00:51:47.260 of anything

00:51:48.740 in the news

00:51:49.400 written.

00:51:51.740 All right.

00:51:52.660 Then you know

00:51:53.280 what the old

00:51:54.980 correction method?

00:51:57.040 Say something

00:51:57.640 you know

00:51:58.060 isn't true,

00:51:59.280 it becomes the

00:51:59.940 big story for

00:52:00.680 days and days

00:52:01.380 and weeks,

00:52:01.940 and then you

00:52:02.800 issue a

00:52:03.200 correction because

00:52:04.000 you knew it

00:52:04.320 wasn't true.

00:52:05.460 You're like,

00:52:05.840 well,

00:52:06.600 well,

00:52:06.960 correction,

00:52:07.560 didn't mean it.

00:52:08.600 And nobody

00:52:09.080 sees the

00:52:09.560 correction.

00:52:11.120 So the

00:52:11.520 fake news

00:52:12.040 just lives

00:52:12.560 forever.

00:52:13.160 Corrections

00:52:13.540 don't matter.

00:52:14.340 So you see

00:52:14.680 that trick.

00:52:15.900 Then there's

00:52:16.420 the wrap-up

00:52:17.360 smear Nancy

00:52:18.420 Pelosi

00:52:18.860 talks about.

00:52:21.560 See if I

00:52:22.160 have this

00:52:22.460 right,

00:52:22.860 because I

00:52:23.100 may be

00:52:23.460 conflating

00:52:23.940 the wrap-up

00:52:24.500 smear with

00:52:25.020 a different

00:52:25.360 thing,

00:52:26.240 but I think

00:52:26.760 they're the

00:52:27.060 same.

00:52:27.840 Where somebody

00:52:29.400 will leak to

00:52:30.480 a journalist

00:52:31.140 something that's

00:52:31.980 not true.

00:52:33.360 The journalist

00:52:34.100 will write it

00:52:35.000 as if it is

00:52:36.060 true.

00:52:37.220 And then the

00:52:37.700 politician who

00:52:38.360 leaked it says,

00:52:39.320 well,

00:52:39.580 don't look at

00:52:40.080 me,

00:52:40.360 it's in the

00:52:40.780 news.

00:52:41.940 I mean,

00:52:42.220 the New York

00:52:42.560 Times just

00:52:43.000 wrote about it.

00:52:43.700 So how about

00:52:45.300 you leave me

00:52:45.880 alone and go

00:52:46.880 talk to the

00:52:47.340 New York

00:52:47.580 Times?

00:52:47.960 Why do they

00:52:48.380 say it's

00:52:48.760 true?

00:52:48.980 I mean,

00:52:49.220 I said it's

00:52:49.700 true first,

00:52:50.420 but now they're

00:52:51.080 agreeing with

00:52:51.560 me,

00:52:51.860 obviously the

00:52:52.660 news agrees

00:52:53.240 with me,

00:52:53.680 I'm right,

00:52:54.140 you're wrong.

00:52:55.920 That's what

00:52:56.440 the wrap-up

00:52:56.940 smear is,

00:52:57.460 right?

00:52:58.260 Where you

00:52:58.720 launder your

00:52:59.700 fake opinions

00:53:00.420 through the

00:53:00.980 fake news

00:53:01.680 so that you

00:53:02.680 can say,

00:53:03.160 oh,

00:53:03.400 not me.

00:53:05.380 Oh,

00:53:05.820 then there's

00:53:06.140 also the

00:53:06.560 24-hour rule,

00:53:08.000 yeah,

00:53:08.860 fog of war,

00:53:10.020 24-hour rule.

00:53:12.820 Would this

00:53:13.360 be a good

00:53:13.840 book?

00:53:14.740 It shouldn't

00:53:15.260 be a book,

00:53:15.740 it should be

00:53:16.100 more like a

00:53:16.820 pamphlet.

00:53:20.700 But this

00:53:21.600 would be

00:53:21.880 useful to

00:53:22.400 train people

00:53:22.960 how to

00:53:23.300 read the

00:53:23.720 news,

00:53:24.020 right?

00:53:24.600 I think it

00:53:25.220 would be.

00:53:27.320 All right,

00:53:27.760 here's another

00:53:28.160 one that you

00:53:33.700 need to know

00:53:34.180 what is

00:53:34.520 science and

00:53:35.100 what is

00:53:35.420 not science

00:53:36.180 because a

00:53:38.360 lot of our

00:53:38.720 news and

00:53:39.380 a lot of

00:53:39.700 the politics

00:53:40.340 is based on

00:53:41.020 what we

00:53:41.500 think is

00:53:41.800 science.

00:53:43.140 So you

00:53:44.400 take climate

00:53:44.900 change.

00:53:47.680 Climate

00:53:48.120 change,

00:53:48.700 the science,

00:53:49.780 is that

00:53:50.440 CO2 is a

00:53:51.680 greenhouse gas

00:53:52.680 and you

00:53:53.580 could test

00:53:54.120 it in lots

00:53:55.000 of different

00:53:55.280 ways and

00:53:56.660 pretty much

00:53:57.240 whenever you

00:53:58.720 test it you

00:53:59.340 say, yeah,

00:54:00.200 it's a

00:54:00.480 greenhouse gas,

00:54:01.280 meaning that

00:54:02.160 if it's in

00:54:02.640 the atmosphere

00:54:03.100 it's one of

00:54:04.420 several things

00:54:05.180 that would

00:54:05.700 keep the

00:54:06.640 heat from

00:54:07.660 escaping the

00:54:08.260 earth.

00:54:08.960 So it

00:54:09.380 traps it in.

00:54:11.240 But it's

00:54:11.700 not the only

00:54:12.160 thing, clouds,

00:54:13.180 blah, blah,

00:54:13.520 blah, right?

00:54:14.560 So if

00:54:17.340 somebody says

00:54:18.020 that the

00:54:18.380 basic science

00:54:19.300 is that

00:54:20.020 CO2 is a

00:54:20.800 greenhouse

00:54:21.080 thing so it

00:54:22.060 should cause

00:54:22.560 some warming,

00:54:23.500 that would be

00:54:24.220 science.

00:54:25.000 But if

00:54:26.000 they make

00:54:26.360 a model

00:54:26.900 to project

00:54:28.120 where it

00:54:28.460 will be

00:54:28.740 in 50

00:54:29.260 years,

00:54:30.280 that is

00:54:30.960 not science.

00:54:32.400 That is

00:54:32.740 marketing,

00:54:33.780 sometimes

00:54:34.940 propaganda.

00:54:37.160 The best

00:54:38.180 it can do,

00:54:39.320 if it were

00:54:39.860 legitimate,

00:54:40.520 which it

00:54:40.820 isn't in

00:54:41.320 this case,

00:54:42.120 is tell

00:54:42.480 you the

00:54:42.920 cone of

00:54:43.420 possibilities.

00:54:45.820 But nobody

00:54:46.700 can predict

00:54:47.160 anything in

00:54:47.740 five years,

00:54:49.340 much less

00:54:49.840 50.

00:54:51.160 You can't

00:54:51.720 really predict

00:54:52.200 anything in

00:54:52.600 one year,

00:54:53.060 most of

00:54:53.380 the time.

00:54:53.540 So if

00:54:54.820 you imagine

00:54:55.360 that the

00:54:55.900 projection

00:54:56.620 models are

00:54:57.840 actually

00:54:58.280 science,

00:54:59.160 you would

00:54:59.680 be completely

00:55:00.280 misled about

00:55:01.240 what's going

00:55:01.680 on.

00:55:02.420 They're the

00:55:03.040 marketing arm

00:55:03.900 so the

00:55:04.760 people who

00:55:05.200 do science

00:55:05.900 can get

00:55:06.440 more money

00:55:06.940 and scare

00:55:08.220 you.

00:55:12.460 Sorry,

00:55:13.060 Don.

00:55:13.640 It's probably

00:55:14.240 hurting your

00:55:14.720 head.

00:55:15.220 We'll just

00:55:15.560 get rid of

00:55:15.980 you.

00:55:16.140 I need

00:55:25.480 to make

00:55:25.720 Don go

00:55:26.180 away.

00:55:28.140 Bye,

00:55:28.780 Don.

00:55:33.420 All right.

00:55:36.260 So here's

00:55:37.100 the question.

00:55:38.180 I know

00:55:38.820 that this

00:55:39.460 is a

00:55:40.060 repeat for

00:55:40.660 most of

00:55:41.040 you.

00:55:42.420 It's

00:55:42.800 slow news

00:55:43.300 day,

00:55:43.500 so trying

00:55:44.560 to make

00:55:45.140 something

00:55:45.380 useful out

00:55:46.000 of this.

00:55:46.740 But do

00:55:47.380 you think

00:55:47.680 you could

00:55:48.120 reprogram

00:55:49.300 anybody so

00:55:50.680 that their

00:55:51.000 politics was

00:55:51.680 different simply

00:55:52.560 because they

00:55:53.100 learned how to

00:55:54.360 interpret the

00:55:55.040 news?

00:55:56.720 Do you think

00:55:57.320 that's a

00:55:57.640 thing?

00:55:59.100 Or do you

00:55:59.660 think nobody

00:56:00.120 would ever

00:56:00.420 change their

00:56:00.880 mind because

00:56:01.260 they would

00:56:01.640 just look at

00:56:03.080 it and say,

00:56:03.440 oh,

00:56:03.700 this isn't

00:56:04.100 true?

00:56:07.320 Well,

00:56:07.780 what I'd

00:56:08.100 like is

00:56:09.340 here's the

00:56:10.440 ultimate

00:56:10.800 expression,

00:56:13.980 that you

00:56:14.340 could grade

00:56:15.900 any story

00:56:16.860 by these

00:56:18.780 characteristics.

00:56:21.060 So you

00:56:21.780 could say,

00:56:22.180 for example,

00:56:23.540 let's say

00:56:24.120 somebody posts

00:56:25.860 a story that's

00:56:26.760 in some

00:56:27.100 publication.

00:56:28.040 You could

00:56:28.380 leave a

00:56:28.720 comment that

00:56:30.380 just picks

00:56:31.100 out the

00:56:31.780 reasons that

00:56:33.440 make it low

00:56:34.280 confidence.

00:56:35.100 Like,

00:56:35.320 well,

00:56:35.480 it's a

00:56:35.780 non-missource,

00:56:36.640 blah,

00:56:36.780 blah,

00:56:36.860 blah.

00:56:37.260 And some

00:56:37.860 kind of thing

00:56:38.520 you could

00:56:38.820 just paste

00:56:39.320 in every

00:56:39.760 time somebody

00:56:40.220 does that.

00:56:41.040 Like a

00:56:41.500 community

00:56:41.860 notes.

00:56:42.980 So one

00:56:43.340 of the

00:56:43.460 things that

00:56:43.860 community

00:56:44.300 notes

00:56:44.720 doesn't

00:56:45.160 do is

00:56:46.480 they don't

00:56:46.780 tell you

00:56:47.080 how to

00:56:47.340 look for

00:56:48.540 problems.

00:56:49.600 They'll

00:56:49.920 just tell you

00:56:50.400 if a fact

00:56:50.880 is wrong,

00:56:51.920 which is

00:56:52.300 useful.

00:56:53.180 But it

00:56:53.680 doesn't tell

00:56:54.080 you stuff

00:56:54.460 like,

00:56:55.460 well,

00:56:55.760 an anonymous

00:56:56.300 source should

00:56:56.860 not be

00:56:57.220 believed.

00:56:59.040 They might

00:56:59.560 just tell you

00:57:00.080 there is or

00:57:00.560 is not an

00:57:01.080 anonymous

00:57:01.400 source,

00:57:02.040 or that it

00:57:03.300 was or was

00:57:03.920 reported that

00:57:04.600 there was

00:57:04.840 one.

00:57:08.520 How do

00:57:11.360 we get

00:57:11.600 afraid of

00:57:12.140 greenhouses?

00:57:21.660 People who

00:57:22.320 think I

00:57:22.640 have a

00:57:22.920 thin skin.

00:57:25.640 That's the

00:57:26.320 NPC take.

00:57:28.440 You all

00:57:28.720 got a

00:57:29.080 frame?

00:57:29.540 You got a

00:57:30.100 If anybody

00:57:31.520 doesn't like

00:57:32.140 anything,

00:57:33.040 they're

00:57:33.520 blamed of

00:57:34.220 having a

00:57:34.680 thin skin.

00:57:37.760 That's the

00:57:38.520 NPC attack.

00:57:39.760 The NPCs

00:57:40.540 say you're

00:57:40.900 a flip-flopper,

00:57:42.480 you're a

00:57:42.900 fence-sitter,

00:57:44.720 and you

00:57:46.340 have thin

00:57:46.960 skin.

00:57:49.940 Those are

00:57:50.720 all the

00:57:51.120 lowest level

00:57:52.020 of analytical

00:57:52.920 ability.

00:57:57.060 Yeah.

00:57:58.380 Wrinkly skin,

00:57:59.260 maybe.

00:58:00.400 Foreskin,

00:58:01.240 well,

00:58:01.980 that's another

00:58:02.800 story.

00:58:07.020 So here's

00:58:07.920 what we

00:58:08.280 might need

00:58:08.720 to do.

00:58:10.100 If we

00:58:11.040 end up

00:58:11.380 putting on

00:58:11.860 a mask

00:58:12.940 rebellion,

00:58:14.280 which I

00:58:15.000 think is

00:58:15.340 likely,

00:58:16.000 we're going

00:58:16.480 to have

00:58:16.700 to find

00:58:17.360 groups of

00:58:18.120 people who

00:58:18.640 want to

00:58:19.140 go into

00:58:19.660 places at

00:58:20.360 the same

00:58:20.720 time.

00:58:22.120 So in

00:58:22.440 other

00:58:22.620 words,

00:58:24.080 if you

00:58:24.620 could find

00:58:25.640 a way to

00:58:25.980 agree with

00:58:26.560 your

00:58:26.860 anti-mask

00:58:28.060 neighbors,

00:58:29.320 that you're

00:58:29.840 all going

00:58:30.120 to go

00:58:30.320 grocery

00:58:30.720 shopping

00:58:31.140 between

00:58:31.720 7 and

00:58:32.940 8 p.m.,

00:58:34.220 and then you

00:58:34.700 just show up

00:58:35.360 in masks

00:58:35.760 without masks,

00:58:37.720 and nobody's

00:58:38.260 going to bother

00:58:38.660 you if there

00:58:39.100 are enough

00:58:39.380 of you.

00:58:40.020 So you have

00:58:40.400 to go in

00:58:40.740 numbers.

00:58:41.940 The problem

00:58:42.540 is if you go

00:58:43.160 as a onesie,

00:58:44.020 they'll kick

00:58:44.360 you out.

00:58:44.780 basically a

00:58:53.300 flash mob.

00:58:54.800 So you

00:58:55.040 want to

00:58:55.220 just break

00:58:55.760 everybody you

00:58:56.300 can break

00:58:56.840 right away.

00:58:58.160 But the

00:58:58.860 cleverness of

00:58:59.840 how it's

00:59:00.480 being rolled

00:59:01.000 out is

00:59:02.440 pretty good

00:59:02.960 because they're

00:59:03.480 making sure

00:59:04.420 it's the

00:59:04.700 people you

00:59:05.080 don't want

00:59:05.540 to boycott.

00:59:07.420 So first

00:59:07.840 it'll be

00:59:08.120 medical

00:59:08.740 professionals,

00:59:10.620 and you

00:59:11.060 saw me,

00:59:11.740 I'm not

00:59:14.160 going to

00:59:14.380 attack

00:59:14.600 medical

00:59:15.020 professionals.

00:59:16.740 I'm just

00:59:17.320 not going

00:59:17.660 to do it.

00:59:18.720 So you

00:59:19.460 might not

00:59:21.940 like to

00:59:22.260 hear this,

00:59:23.020 but if my

00:59:23.780 health care

00:59:24.340 provider

00:59:24.900 wants me

00:59:26.380 to wear

00:59:26.680 a mask

00:59:27.140 inside a

00:59:27.860 health care

00:59:28.380 facility,

00:59:29.680 I'm not

00:59:30.880 going to

00:59:31.080 second guess

00:59:31.660 them.

00:59:33.520 I don't

00:59:34.460 think it's

00:59:34.960 necessary,

00:59:35.940 especially if

00:59:36.560 I don't

00:59:36.780 have symptoms,

00:59:37.740 because the

00:59:38.180 whole point

00:59:38.680 is you're

00:59:39.880 supposed to

00:59:40.180 wear the

00:59:40.420 mask if

00:59:40.860 you're the

00:59:41.040 one who

00:59:41.240 has the

00:59:41.520 symptoms,

00:59:42.240 but now

00:59:43.160 the latest

00:59:43.600 information is

00:59:44.440 that asymptomatic

00:59:45.420 spreading was

00:59:46.740 basically zero.

00:59:49.080 It was people

00:59:49.940 with symptoms.

00:59:51.380 So my

00:59:52.200 common sense

00:59:52.820 tells me I

00:59:53.900 wouldn't need

00:59:54.280 a mask in

00:59:54.840 a medical

00:59:55.200 facility,

00:59:55.920 but that's

00:59:56.440 not where

00:59:56.800 I'd pick

00:59:57.560 a fight.

00:59:58.640 I don't

00:59:59.200 think the

00:59:59.700 nurses and

01:00:00.280 doctors need

01:00:01.820 that kind

01:00:02.240 of bullshit

01:00:02.620 in their

01:00:03.020 lives,

01:00:03.840 like let

01:00:04.360 them do

01:00:04.640 what they

01:00:04.900 can.

01:00:05.320 So I'll

01:00:05.780 put up

01:00:06.080 with that

01:00:06.360 annoyance,

01:00:07.100 and I

01:00:07.420 think the

01:00:08.040 government

01:00:08.340 knows that.

01:00:09.820 They know

01:00:10.220 that if

01:00:10.520 your doctor

01:00:11.000 requires it,

01:00:11.720 you're going

01:00:12.000 to fold,

01:00:13.420 because that's

01:00:13.860 not the

01:00:14.180 fight you

01:00:14.500 want to

01:00:14.680 have.

01:00:15.140 Then they're

01:00:15.600 going to go

01:00:16.020 for the

01:00:16.820 airlines,

01:00:18.180 and the

01:00:18.540 airlines will

01:00:19.020 say, hey,

01:00:19.460 it wasn't our

01:00:19.980 decision.

01:00:21.020 The government

01:00:21.420 just made us

01:00:22.000 do it.

01:00:22.900 What choice

01:00:23.500 do we have?

01:00:24.280 You'd be like,

01:00:24.760 oh, airlines,

01:00:25.640 airlines, oh, I

01:00:27.280 guess it's not

01:00:27.720 really your

01:00:28.160 fault.

01:00:30.020 So, and

01:00:31.260 they'll probably

01:00:31.920 be in the

01:00:32.320 military, right?

01:00:33.560 And I'll be

01:00:33.920 like, oh, I

01:00:34.840 can't really

01:00:35.220 boycott the

01:00:35.960 military.

01:00:37.360 So they're

01:00:38.460 going to sneak

01:00:38.960 it in all the

01:00:39.640 places that you

01:00:40.300 can't boycott,

01:00:41.740 and then they're

01:00:42.720 going to start

01:00:43.200 threatening the

01:00:43.860 big companies,

01:00:45.080 you know, with

01:00:45.620 all kinds of

01:00:46.260 things.

01:00:46.820 But at some

01:00:47.940 point, you're

01:00:48.520 going to have

01:00:48.700 to destroy a

01:00:49.440 big entity, or

01:00:51.020 more.

01:00:52.200 So you're

01:00:52.660 going to have

01:00:52.800 to take out

01:00:53.240 like a whole

01:00:53.680 Fortune 500

01:00:54.440 company.

01:00:55.300 You're just

01:00:55.660 going to bring

01:00:56.100 some company

01:00:56.640 to its knees,

01:00:57.420 totally.

01:00:58.440 But it won't

01:00:59.160 be until it's

01:00:59.740 some capitalistic

01:01:02.680 free market

01:01:03.240 company that

01:01:03.900 gets involved.

01:01:05.220 But it has

01:01:06.380 to be brutal.

01:01:08.560 We have to

01:01:09.200 actually destroy

01:01:10.100 a corporation

01:01:11.660 that doesn't

01:01:12.800 deserve it.

01:01:15.240 Right?

01:01:15.800 So when we

01:01:17.320 do it, and

01:01:17.900 it probably

01:01:18.240 will take down

01:01:19.180 a big company,

01:01:20.280 it has to be

01:01:20.840 a company

01:01:21.240 that it

01:01:22.840 doesn't matter

01:01:23.360 if they

01:01:23.620 deserve it,

01:01:24.500 and it

01:01:24.700 doesn't matter

01:01:25.080 how much

01:01:25.360 you like

01:01:25.700 them, and

01:01:26.920 it doesn't

01:01:27.180 matter how

01:01:27.480 much you

01:01:27.700 like their

01:01:28.020 products, it

01:01:28.880 doesn't matter

01:01:29.320 if your

01:01:29.700 brother works

01:01:30.380 for the

01:01:30.640 company, you

01:01:31.720 just got to

01:01:32.080 take them

01:01:32.320 out of

01:01:32.480 business.

01:01:33.940 Because

01:01:34.340 that's war.

01:01:37.260 War has

01:01:37.840 casualties.

01:01:38.940 And this

01:01:39.260 would definitely

01:01:39.640 be a war,

01:01:40.240 in my opinion.

01:01:45.540 And I

01:01:46.100 also think

01:01:46.800 that's the

01:01:47.280 point where

01:01:47.680 I would lose

01:01:48.240 all allegiance

01:01:49.060 to America,

01:01:49.920 basically.

01:01:50.260 I mean, I

01:01:52.000 wouldn't be a

01:01:52.420 traitor, but

01:01:53.040 it would be

01:01:55.180 hard to love

01:01:55.680 my country if

01:01:56.580 they make me

01:01:57.000 put a mask

01:01:57.520 on again, or

01:01:58.240 try.

01:02:00.260 That would be

01:02:00.900 a hard stretch

01:02:01.960 for me.

01:02:05.860 All right,

01:02:06.400 that's all I

01:02:06.780 got for you

01:02:07.180 today, YouTube.

01:02:08.360 Thanks for

01:02:08.720 joining.

01:02:09.660 Maybe the

01:02:10.100 news will be

01:02:10.500 more interesting

01:02:11.020 tomorrow.

01:02:11.420 Bye for now.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - September 08, 2023

Episode 2225 Scott Adams： Headlines, Bulging Veins And My Guide To Understanding News

Episode Stats

Length

Words per Minute

Word Count

Sentence Count

Misogynist Sentences

Hate Speech Sentences

Summary

Transcript