Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2239 Scott Adams： More Reports On The Gears Of The Machine. It Is Completely Clear Now

00:00:00.000 Do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do.

00:00:04.140 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of human civilization.

00:00:10.580 And if you'd like your experience to be so special that you'll be talking to your grandkids about it forever,

00:00:18.620 all you need is a cup or mug or glass, a tank or gel, so stein, a canteen jug or flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:25.140 Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee.

00:00:28.740 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure.

00:00:31.740 It's a dope immediate of the day.

00:00:33.000 The thing that makes everything better.

00:00:34.280 It's called the simultaneous sip.

00:00:36.640 It happens now.

00:00:37.780 Go.

00:00:42.220 Ah.

00:00:43.780 So good.

00:00:45.320 Savor it.

00:00:46.620 Savor it.

00:00:47.200 All right, well, let's talk about all the news.

00:00:51.600 Governor Newsom was complaining recently

00:00:54.700 that there are a lot of micro-cults.

00:00:58.840 And he gave some examples.

00:01:00.420 He said that his own son has been talking to him

00:01:03.940 about Andrew Tate, Joe Rogan, and Jordan Peterson.

00:01:09.220 And I guess those are the micro-cults.

00:01:11.800 That's right.

00:01:12.260 Governor Newsom's son is listening to Tate, Rogan, and Jordan Peterson.

00:01:21.980 So what can you conclude from that?

00:01:24.700 Here's what I conclude from that.

00:01:28.800 I'm just going to guess that that son has a very clean bedroom.

00:01:36.080 Anybody want to take the other side of that bet?

00:01:39.740 Wouldn't you love to ask him that question?

00:01:42.540 Just one question and walk away.

00:01:45.280 Governor Newsom, I hear your son's listening to Tate and Rogan

00:01:49.860 and Jordan Peterson.

00:01:51.580 Well, yes, I'm afraid to say it's true.

00:01:53.880 I just have one question.

00:01:56.820 How clean is his bedroom?

00:02:00.060 And you don't even wait for the answer.

00:02:02.180 Just walk away.

00:02:04.440 That's how I play it.

00:02:06.680 Well, I have a theory that there will be a rebalance 1.00

00:02:11.200 of our current crazy situation.

00:02:13.660 And the reason for the rebalance is that men, adult men,

00:02:21.440 have been completely taken out of the, let's say,

00:02:25.240 the political conversation because we're too easy to cancel and to threaten.

00:02:29.060 So men need jobs. 1.00

00:02:32.740 And if you say the wrong things in America, you lose your job.

00:02:37.360 So men are just completely taken off the board 0.78

00:02:39.580 because we'll just get canceled like Russell Brand or Tucker Carlson or me.

00:02:44.760 So adult men don't have any hope of being part of the conversation 0.97

00:02:50.720 in a meaningful way.

00:02:54.180 This, however, will be very different with young men who have nothing to lose.

00:02:59.220 And even when they don't have anything to lose,

00:03:01.880 they're more likely to risk losing it because they're young men.

00:03:05.160 I don't know if you've been paying attention,

00:03:08.300 but the young males are not on board with wokeness.

00:03:13.380 And I don't think that's an exaggeration.

00:03:16.460 The young men, not on board with wokeness, not even a little bit.

00:03:21.160 I've never even met one.

00:03:23.640 Never even met a young male who was woke.

00:03:28.700 Never even heard of one.

00:03:31.760 And those men have nothing to lose.

00:03:35.660 Because they don't have jobs.

00:03:37.960 They have nothing to lose.

00:03:40.140 So you're going to see this explosion of male energy 0.95

00:03:44.600 that has been suppressed in the adult male population for a long time

00:03:49.820 because you know why?

00:03:51.020 We thought we could protect our jobs.

00:03:55.060 How'd that work out?

00:03:56.900 Didn't work out at all.

00:03:58.840 No, because your job will be taken by a diversity hire anyway. 0.97

00:04:03.820 So a woman will take your job or LGBTQ. 1.00

00:04:07.820 So going along with the plan doesn't help as much as you think it would.

00:04:11.400 But it's a natural impulse.

00:04:14.000 So look out.

00:04:15.320 We might be a generation away from it.

00:04:17.100 But now that I know that Governor Newsom's son is being raised by Andrew Tate,

00:04:23.640 I'm just going to say there are some surprises, a few surprises coming.

00:04:28.260 That's all.

00:04:30.380 All right.

00:04:31.060 In the segment I like to call it dumb science,

00:04:34.560 where science gives you a result that you don't have to be an expert to know is bullshit.

00:04:40.220 So the test here is, without being any kind of a scientist at all,

00:04:47.660 can you tell that this is bullshit? 0.61

00:04:49.440 So let me tell you what they found.

00:04:52.020 There was a study that found out that the events of January 6th

00:04:57.180 caused a substantial degradation in mental health.

00:05:03.060 So there's a big drop in mental health.

00:05:06.980 But it doesn't seem to be across the board.

00:05:10.980 It seems to have hit Democrats really hard,

00:05:14.600 but Republicans sort of not at all.

00:05:18.580 So January 6th actually caused measurable mental health decline for Democrats.

00:05:25.440 But no real difference for Republicans.

00:05:30.240 And so do you know what they concluded based on this?

00:05:34.700 Their conclusion was that the events of January 6th

00:05:38.140 caused a decline in mental health.

00:05:41.280 Does that sound accurate?

00:05:43.400 The events of January 6th caused a decline in mental health.

00:05:49.460 Let me postulate another possibility.

00:05:52.800 Could it be that the reason Democrats were affected is that they watched fake news

00:05:59.300 and the Republicans watched both

00:06:02.120 so they could judge what was real and what was fake pretty easily

00:06:05.640 and that the people who saw the real news

00:06:08.280 did not think that there was an insurrection that almost destroyed the country

00:06:12.900 or anything like that?

00:06:16.320 And so the Republicans had reason to be angry,

00:06:20.120 you know, politically angry,

00:06:21.180 but they didn't have any trigger to be politically, mentally, you know, unhealthy.

00:06:27.840 But the Democrats did.

00:06:30.140 They were told nonstop that their country was almost lost

00:06:33.660 and they live in a white supremacist society

00:06:36.620 that almost took over.

00:06:39.020 That would be pretty scary

00:06:40.460 to imagine if something like that actually happened in the real world.

00:06:44.680 But it didn't.

00:06:46.140 It's just that their news told them it did and it made them crazy.

00:06:48.520 Now, getting back to Dr. Jordan Peterson's theory

00:06:54.200 that a lot of what you see online

00:06:56.000 is the dark triad personality traits,

00:07:00.720 narcissists mostly,

00:07:02.440 and that you're mostly just seeing mental health amplified.

00:07:08.520 You know, before if you had bad mental health,

00:07:10.380 it only bothered a few people that you associated with.

00:07:12.980 But now I'm bad mental health.

00:07:15.000 It's like, ah, I can scream it on social media.

00:07:17.420 I can cancel you.

00:07:18.780 I control you.

00:07:21.640 I just thought that control

00:07:23.860 and can troll

00:07:27.380 are very similar, aren't they?

00:07:31.320 Because they use trolls

00:07:32.780 to control.

00:07:34.040 If you can troll, you can troll.

00:07:37.440 Hmm.

00:07:38.240 Interesting.

00:07:40.340 That's a dumb science for today.

00:07:42.780 Dumb science.

00:07:44.820 A question I like to ask every few months

00:07:47.480 just to get people talking.

00:07:49.740 Why in the world would anybody hire someone

00:07:51.920 who had pronouns in any of their bios,

00:07:55.180 online or otherwise?

00:07:57.160 Why would you do that?

00:07:58.240 Now, I imagine there'd be some, like,

00:08:02.360 super blue businesses

00:08:04.420 that just, you know,

00:08:05.620 have to get somebody just like them.

00:08:07.820 There'd be some of those.

00:08:09.460 But doesn't a pronoun

00:08:11.520 signal that you're going to cause trouble?

00:08:15.600 I don't know how it could be more clear.

00:08:18.560 Hi, I'm going to have a problem

00:08:20.280 on this minor point.

00:08:22.260 And not only am I going to have a problem,

00:08:24.200 I want to tell you in advance.

00:08:25.820 So when you violate this minor point,

00:08:29.600 whoa, there's going to be trouble.

00:08:32.540 Why would anybody hire somebody

00:08:34.440 who led with how much trouble

00:08:36.700 there are going to be?

00:08:38.720 Now, my assumption is

00:08:40.160 that the pronoun thing will go away.

00:08:42.240 And I think it will go away

00:08:43.820 because the number of companies

00:08:46.060 that will hire you

00:08:47.020 because you have a pronoun

00:08:48.300 will drop to zero.

00:08:51.800 But the number that will reject you

00:08:54.820 because the pronouns

00:08:55.680 is probably already at a third,

00:08:58.580 maybe 30% or more,

00:09:00.680 I would think.

00:09:01.680 What's your guess?

00:09:02.820 What percentage of hiring managers

00:09:05.020 across the board everywhere

00:09:07.640 would reject somebody

00:09:10.100 just immediately

00:09:11.380 because of a pronoun?

00:09:12.840 I would.

00:09:13.300 I would not even consider

00:09:15.060 somebody with their pronoun.

00:09:17.520 And it has nothing to do

00:09:18.740 with their political opinions.

00:09:20.840 It's really, really bad judgment

00:09:22.400 to put your pronoun in your bio

00:09:23.960 if you're applying for a job

00:09:25.220 because you don't know yet

00:09:26.760 if your employer thinks that's cool.

00:09:29.840 So that, I mean,

00:09:30.700 it's a big signal of bad judgment,

00:09:32.620 but it's also a signal

00:09:33.760 of potential lawsuits

00:09:35.580 and trouble like that.

00:09:37.200 And also somebody

00:09:38.980 who's going to support

00:09:39.920 every woke person

00:09:41.400 and woke thing,

00:09:42.680 and you don't need that either.

00:09:45.220 So my guess is

00:09:47.260 that pure economics

00:09:48.280 will drive this out

00:09:49.320 in the marketplace.

00:09:50.880 Just economics.

00:09:52.900 What do you think?

00:09:54.460 Do you think there'll be more of it,

00:09:55.620 or is it just sort of obvious

00:09:57.140 that economics will drive it

00:09:58.520 out of the system?

00:09:59.140 I think we're just a few years

00:10:01.980 away from it disappearing.

00:10:03.880 Maybe three.

00:10:05.180 I think in three years,

00:10:06.400 pronouns will make you look like

00:10:07.840 just a fucking idiot. 0.91

00:10:10.980 Yeah.

00:10:11.520 All right.

00:10:14.160 I've said this story before,

00:10:15.660 but I like it so much

00:10:16.520 I'm going to say it again.

00:10:17.740 So Ibram Kendi,

00:10:19.080 the anti-racist guy,

00:10:20.980 activist,

00:10:21.960 he was trying to figure out

00:10:24.000 what happened to

00:10:25.500 $30 million of mismanaged money

00:10:27.780 for his, quote,

00:10:29.180 anti-racism center.

00:10:32.760 So Boston University

00:10:34.320 is investigating

00:10:35.220 the center

00:10:36.520 following allegations

00:10:37.520 that he mismanaged

00:10:38.460 grant funds,

00:10:39.280 failed to deliver

00:10:39.880 key projects,

00:10:41.060 and unleashed

00:10:42.060 employment violence

00:10:43.480 on the staff.

00:10:45.320 Now, guess what type

00:10:47.040 of people he hired?

00:10:50.340 He hired the kind of people

00:10:51.740 who would have pronouns

00:10:52.680 in their bio.

00:10:54.820 How'd that work out?

00:10:55.920 Well, it looks like

00:10:57.980 they have some complaints.

00:11:02.080 Yeah, they have some complaints.

00:11:04.480 Now, there might be

00:11:05.840 a really good reason

00:11:06.680 for a complaint

00:11:07.420 because it's missing

00:11:08.360 $30 million

00:11:09.000 and the other accusations

00:11:11.380 you have to take seriously.

00:11:13.300 But even if Kendi

00:11:15.320 had done nothing wrong,

00:11:17.700 but the only thing he'd done

00:11:19.460 is hired a staff

00:11:20.320 full of complainers,

00:11:21.980 how in the world

00:11:23.520 was that going to work?

00:11:24.360 So we've actually seen

00:11:27.320 the test case

00:11:28.700 of hiring people

00:11:30.200 not for merit,

00:11:31.500 but for being like-minded.

00:11:35.120 Didn't work out.

00:11:36.880 Turns out, big surprise.

00:11:38.300 Didn't work out.

00:11:40.300 All right, here's something

00:11:41.380 I'll bet you didn't know.

00:11:43.680 Mike Benz taught me this

00:11:45.920 on Twitter, on X, I mean.

00:11:47.380 Did you know

00:11:51.100 that in Cuba

00:11:53.040 the CIA

00:11:54.480 tried to create

00:11:56.200 a Twitter-like product

00:11:59.040 that the CIA

00:12:00.500 would control

00:12:01.280 and unknowingly

00:12:02.960 the Cuban population

00:12:04.300 would use it,

00:12:05.040 not knowing

00:12:05.480 that the CIA

00:12:06.140 controlled it.

00:12:07.420 And the plan

00:12:08.260 explicitly

00:12:08.960 was to build up

00:12:10.460 a population

00:12:11.120 of users

00:12:11.720 and then after

00:12:13.160 they got the population

00:12:14.080 of users,

00:12:15.160 they would politicize it.

00:12:16.360 In other words,

00:12:17.220 they'd put their finger

00:12:17.980 on it and start using it

00:12:19.940 to foment revolution.

00:12:22.520 Well, it didn't work out

00:12:24.160 because they didn't get

00:12:25.120 enough users

00:12:25.720 and they didn't get

00:12:26.680 their funding,

00:12:27.500 so it never got

00:12:28.060 to the second step

00:12:28.980 of fomenting protests,

00:12:31.420 fake protests.

00:12:32.500 They were fomented

00:12:33.380 by the CIA.

00:12:34.700 So this was

00:12:35.580 literally a way

00:12:36.820 that was being used

00:12:37.740 to overthrow Cuba,

00:12:39.600 unsuccessfully.

00:12:40.360 but you could tell

00:12:42.460 that the CIA,

00:12:44.480 and by the way,

00:12:45.220 this is documented,

00:12:46.320 it's on Wikipedia,

00:12:47.940 it's not one of these

00:12:48.760 weird conspiracy theories,

00:12:51.340 it's a well-documented

00:12:52.600 thing.

00:12:54.420 Now,

00:12:55.660 you don't think

00:12:56.380 that China thought

00:12:57.100 of that

00:12:57.480 with TikTok?

00:12:59.460 You don't think

00:13:00.280 that China 0.93

00:13:00.840 said,

00:13:02.260 let's build up

00:13:02.780 an audience

00:13:03.320 and once we've got

00:13:04.140 a good audience,

00:13:05.800 we're going to turn

00:13:06.700 the crank a little bit?

00:13:08.700 No?

00:13:09.500 Because it turns out

00:13:10.580 that the news

00:13:11.340 is also reporting

00:13:12.240 that TikTok

00:13:12.820 is moving more

00:13:14.000 into political content.

00:13:16.480 Huh.

00:13:17.620 Big surprise.

00:13:19.120 There's more political

00:13:20.000 content now

00:13:20.820 on TikTok.

00:13:21.780 Huh.

00:13:22.440 I wonder if it's

00:13:23.400 mostly conservative.

00:13:25.120 It's not?

00:13:26.420 What?

00:13:27.820 It mostly

00:13:28.440 is terrible

00:13:29.860 woke things

00:13:30.660 that would destroy

00:13:31.340 the country?

00:13:32.380 Oh,

00:13:32.860 big surprise,

00:13:33.760 big surprise.

00:13:34.720 Is it lots of things

00:13:35.620 that would reduce

00:13:36.300 the odds of reproduction?

00:13:38.280 Oh,

00:13:38.600 yeah,

00:13:38.860 it is.

00:13:39.720 Oh,

00:13:40.040 yeah,

00:13:40.320 it is.

00:13:42.120 But it's a complete

00:13:43.080 coincidence,

00:13:43.760 right?

00:13:44.700 It's just a coincidence.

00:13:46.240 It's a coincidence

00:13:47.040 that RCIA

00:13:48.240 tried to do

00:13:49.040 an op

00:13:49.620 that looks

00:13:50.620 exactly like

00:13:51.520 TikTok.

00:13:52.940 That's just

00:13:53.520 a coincidence.

00:13:55.280 So,

00:13:55.820 no,

00:13:56.020 China's not up

00:13:56.700 to anything.

00:13:57.480 And the way

00:13:57.840 we know

00:13:58.180 that China's 0.96

00:13:58.680 not up

00:13:59.040 to anything

00:13:59.440 is that

00:13:59.920 Rand Paul

00:14:00.800 squashed

00:14:02.900 the effort

00:14:03.780 to block

00:14:04.340 TikTok downloads

00:14:05.480 in Congress.

00:14:06.280 Rand Paul.

00:14:07.680 Oh,

00:14:07.880 Rand Paul,

00:14:08.420 who is one

00:14:08.880 of his biggest

00:14:09.380 funders?

00:14:10.600 Oh,

00:14:10.860 an owner

00:14:11.180 of TikTok.

00:14:12.240 Yeah,

00:14:12.800 an American

00:14:14.020 billionaire

00:14:14.500 who owns

00:14:15.020 a lot

00:14:15.380 of TikTok

00:14:15.800 is one

00:14:17.580 of the biggest

00:14:17.940 funders

00:14:18.440 to the people

00:14:18.980 who stopped

00:14:19.480 it from being

00:14:20.700 banned.

00:14:23.060 Things are

00:14:23.720 exactly the way

00:14:24.600 they look.

00:14:26.180 The gears

00:14:26.900 of the machine

00:14:27.640 are becoming

00:14:29.200 visible.

00:14:29.700 How many

00:14:32.120 of you

00:14:32.480 have a

00:14:32.860 completely

00:14:33.280 different

00:14:33.720 understanding

00:14:34.360 of our

00:14:35.100 system

00:14:35.540 just in the

00:14:37.040 last several

00:14:37.540 months

00:14:37.840 from listening

00:14:38.480 to me?

00:14:41.280 It's nothing

00:14:42.000 like what you

00:14:42.580 thought it was,

00:14:43.080 is it?

00:14:44.360 It's kind of

00:14:45.060 mind-blowing,

00:14:45.680 isn't it,

00:14:46.360 when you can

00:14:47.120 see the whole

00:14:47.580 system?

00:14:49.780 All right,

00:14:50.340 let's talk

00:14:51.240 about Dave

00:14:53.160 Portnoy,

00:14:53.840 as you probably

00:14:54.900 already know,

00:14:55.740 a food

00:14:57.960 writer,

00:14:58.840 that's right,

00:14:59.360 a food

00:15:00.060 editor,

00:15:01.800 decided to

00:15:02.540 write a story

00:15:03.120 about him

00:15:03.600 having a

00:15:04.320 pizza festival,

00:15:05.620 which was

00:15:06.380 for the benefit

00:15:06.960 of the small

00:15:07.520 businesses,

00:15:08.980 and they

00:15:09.580 decided to

00:15:10.200 call the

00:15:10.680 sponsors for

00:15:11.640 the event

00:15:12.120 and say,

00:15:13.200 are you

00:15:13.460 comfortable

00:15:13.880 working with

00:15:14.500 this misogynist

00:15:15.380 who does

00:15:16.140 sketchy things?

00:15:17.780 Which,

00:15:18.560 obviously,

00:15:20.020 is intended

00:15:20.700 to destroy

00:15:22.500 his economic

00:15:23.260 model.

00:15:23.700 Now,

00:15:26.020 Portnoy,

00:15:27.480 being a

00:15:29.020 media,

00:15:29.820 I would say,

00:15:31.280 expert,

00:15:32.520 knew exactly

00:15:34.220 how to handle

00:15:34.780 this,

00:15:35.480 and recorded

00:15:36.280 his phone

00:15:36.800 call when

00:15:37.200 he called

00:15:37.580 the reporter

00:15:38.340 for the

00:15:38.720 Washington Post,

00:15:40.240 and basically

00:15:42.820 embarrassed that

00:15:43.840 reporter and

00:15:44.620 made it a

00:15:45.040 national story,

00:15:46.020 which was

00:15:46.460 perfect.

00:15:47.900 You know,

00:15:48.120 you can't

00:15:48.760 handle it

00:15:49.180 better than

00:15:49.560 that.

00:15:50.400 That was

00:15:50.780 perfect.

00:15:52.540 Now,

00:15:52.860 do you

00:15:53.600 see the

00:15:53.920 gears of

00:15:54.340 the

00:15:54.440 machine?

00:15:55.180 The

00:15:55.300 Washington

00:15:55.680 Post,

00:15:57.040 who,

00:15:57.460 by the

00:15:57.680 way,

00:15:57.900 do you

00:15:58.120 know the

00:15:58.400 Washington

00:15:58.700 Post is

00:15:59.200 probably the

00:16:00.120 biggest entity

00:16:00.760 that canceled

00:16:01.340 me?

00:16:02.800 Did you

00:16:03.360 know that?

00:16:04.000 Because you

00:16:04.420 heard that I

00:16:04.920 was canceled

00:16:05.380 in newspapers.

00:16:07.400 But unless

00:16:08.000 the Washington

00:16:08.540 Post goes

00:16:09.300 first,

00:16:09.840 the other

00:16:10.200 ones aren't

00:16:10.600 going to do

00:16:10.980 it.

00:16:12.340 So they

00:16:12.920 were the

00:16:13.220 big voice.

00:16:16.460 So just

00:16:17.160 keep that in

00:16:17.640 mind.

00:16:18.780 I wonder

00:16:19.340 if there

00:16:19.660 are any

00:16:19.900 other stories

00:16:20.700 that would

00:16:21.220 be relevant

00:16:21.760 to this

00:16:22.220 one in

00:16:22.640 a different

00:16:23.260 way.

00:16:24.280 Well,

00:16:24.720 let's go

00:16:24.940 back to

00:16:25.240 2013.

00:16:28.180 Here's

00:16:28.580 something you

00:16:28.980 didn't know.

00:16:30.060 In 2013,

00:16:31.680 Jeff Bezos

00:16:33.860 bought the

00:16:34.520 Washington

00:16:34.880 Post.

00:16:37.140 So they

00:16:37.720 had the

00:16:38.160 guy who

00:16:38.740 owns Amazon,

00:16:39.640 richest guy in

00:16:40.180 the world at

00:16:40.600 the time,

00:16:41.800 bought the

00:16:42.760 Washington

00:16:43.060 Post.

00:16:43.620 A lot of

00:16:43.980 people didn't

00:16:44.420 think that

00:16:44.760 was a good

00:16:45.160 investment

00:16:45.700 because it

00:16:46.360 didn't look

00:16:46.700 like it

00:16:47.020 could make

00:16:47.340 money.

00:16:48.360 It's like,

00:16:48.640 why would

00:16:48.920 you do that?

00:16:49.620 It's kind

00:16:50.160 of a weird

00:16:50.540 investment.

00:16:51.940 Seems like

00:16:52.400 the last

00:16:52.820 thing you'd

00:16:53.180 invest in.

00:16:54.300 But it

00:16:54.640 did.

00:16:55.800 That was

00:16:56.120 2013.

00:16:58.580 Some people

00:16:59.320 say that

00:16:59.920 the Washington

00:17:00.560 Post is

00:17:01.100 the outlet

00:17:01.640 that the

00:17:02.740 CIA likes

00:17:03.660 to use

00:17:04.400 to put

00:17:05.360 their

00:17:05.580 preferred

00:17:06.140 news

00:17:07.080 into the

00:17:07.640 reporters.

00:17:09.240 That's what

00:17:09.620 they say.

00:17:10.600 I mean,

00:17:10.820 I can't

00:17:11.180 confirm that.

00:17:12.520 That's what

00:17:13.040 smart people

00:17:13.700 say.

00:17:15.020 I wonder

00:17:15.400 if anything

00:17:15.760 else happened

00:17:16.260 in 2013.

00:17:17.000 2013,

00:17:19.960 the same

00:17:20.260 year that

00:17:20.720 Jeff Bezos

00:17:21.260 bought the

00:17:21.740 Washington

00:17:22.040 Post.

00:17:22.660 Oh,

00:17:22.800 yeah.

00:17:23.080 Oh,

00:17:23.180 yeah.

00:17:23.840 So here's

00:17:24.340 the story.

00:17:27.400 The CIA

00:17:28.240 actually needs

00:17:28.940 a lot of

00:17:29.500 processors.

00:17:31.340 So they're

00:17:31.640 using it.

00:17:32.560 In 2013,

00:17:34.300 they made

00:17:35.540 a $600

00:17:36.100 million deal

00:17:37.060 with Amazon

00:17:38.780 Web Service.

00:17:40.600 So the

00:17:40.940 CIA has

00:17:41.860 a $600

00:17:42.460 million deal.

00:17:43.480 and it

00:17:46.120 happened

00:17:46.440 on the

00:17:46.900 same year,

00:17:47.740 same year

00:17:48.520 that Bezos

00:17:49.140 rescued the

00:17:50.560 newspaper that

00:17:52.440 some say

00:17:53.940 is the

00:17:55.160 CIA newspaper.

00:17:57.740 So Jeff

00:17:58.680 Bezos

00:17:59.160 rescued the

00:17:59.920 CIA newspaper,

00:18:01.040 some say,

00:18:02.920 the same

00:18:03.600 year that

00:18:04.300 the CIA

00:18:05.700 decided to

00:18:06.520 give their

00:18:06.860 gigantic deal

00:18:07.980 to Amazon.

00:18:10.500 But that's

00:18:11.040 a coincidence.

00:18:11.520 things happened

00:18:13.600 in the same

00:18:14.080 year.

00:18:14.460 That's just

00:18:14.780 a coincidence.

00:18:19.400 So now we

00:18:20.380 have a

00:18:20.620 situation where

00:18:22.140 the news is

00:18:22.800 so owned

00:18:23.480 that Biden

00:18:24.820 can say

00:18:25.420 absolutely

00:18:26.120 anything and

00:18:27.700 be confident

00:18:28.340 that his

00:18:29.160 audience won't

00:18:29.780 hear any

00:18:30.340 counterpoint,

00:18:31.640 no matter

00:18:32.400 what it is.

00:18:33.680 This is

00:18:34.100 something Biden

00:18:34.900 actually said

00:18:35.860 in an event

00:18:36.420 yesterday,

00:18:37.480 that MAGA

00:18:38.520 Republicans spent

00:18:39.520 four years

00:18:40.220 gutting the

00:18:41.040 immigration

00:18:41.540 system under

00:18:42.460 my predecessor.

00:18:44.240 They continue

00:18:45.160 to undermine

00:18:45.820 our border

00:18:46.300 security today.

00:18:50.600 Just hold

00:18:51.540 that in your

00:18:51.960 mind.

00:18:53.340 The Democrats

00:18:54.300 are so cut

00:18:55.660 off from

00:18:56.220 actual news

00:18:57.220 that Biden

00:18:58.580 can tell

00:18:59.200 them that

00:19:00.280 the border

00:19:00.820 problem was

00:19:01.900 Trump's fault.

00:19:04.280 And they

00:19:05.100 might actually

00:19:05.700 believe it.

00:19:07.280 Just think

00:19:08.120 about that.

00:19:08.600 that's where

00:19:09.880 we are in

00:19:10.440 2023.

00:19:13.520 It's almost

00:19:14.280 too hard to

00:19:14.840 hold in your

00:19:15.240 mind,

00:19:15.580 isn't it?

00:19:16.380 You almost

00:19:16.980 can't keep

00:19:17.460 that in your

00:19:17.880 mind.

00:19:18.200 It's like,

00:19:19.040 really?

00:19:20.220 Really?

00:19:21.100 Biden said

00:19:21.820 that the

00:19:22.120 border problem

00:19:22.760 was Trump's

00:19:23.980 fault.

00:19:26.800 But if

00:19:27.660 you didn't

00:19:29.820 have access

00:19:30.340 to real

00:19:31.020 news,

00:19:31.860 would you

00:19:32.720 believe it?

00:19:34.100 Probably.

00:19:35.380 You probably

00:19:35.880 would believe

00:19:36.320 it.

00:19:39.740 Dave Rubin

00:19:40.840 says on

00:19:43.620 some ex-posts

00:19:45.120 that he's

00:19:45.880 been demonetized

00:19:46.860 a few times

00:19:47.480 lately by

00:19:48.080 YouTube.

00:19:50.200 And are

00:19:51.540 you surprised?

00:19:53.460 Let's see.

00:19:54.240 Dave Rubin

00:19:55.000 getting

00:19:55.320 demonetized.

00:19:57.420 Andrew Tate

00:19:58.160 demonetized.

00:20:00.360 Jordan

00:20:00.920 Peterson,

00:20:01.840 his license

00:20:02.600 is being

00:20:03.140 threatened.

00:20:03.960 Joe Rogan,

00:20:04.560 they tried

00:20:04.940 to cancel

00:20:05.480 him.

00:20:06.580 I was

00:20:07.240 completely

00:20:07.760 canceled.

00:20:09.120 Dave

00:20:09.360 Portnoy,

00:20:10.120 they're going

00:20:10.380 after his

00:20:10.840 business model.

00:20:14.140 Do you see

00:20:14.880 any patterns

00:20:15.580 yet?

00:20:17.980 Yeah,

00:20:18.280 Musk,

00:20:18.840 going after

00:20:19.360 Elon Musk.

00:20:20.560 Do you see

00:20:21.080 the pattern?

00:20:25.460 Yeah.

00:20:27.100 Yep.

00:20:28.200 There's the

00:20:28.740 pattern.

00:20:29.000 So,

00:20:31.960 what else

00:20:35.820 is happening?

00:20:38.400 Let's talk

00:20:39.300 about Twitter.

00:20:40.780 Apparently,

00:20:41.520 a group called

00:20:42.180 America First

00:20:42.880 Legal is

00:20:44.360 suing Biden's

00:20:45.640 FTC for

00:20:47.400 what they say

00:20:47.960 is illegally

00:20:48.620 concealing documents

00:20:49.740 on government

00:20:50.520 targeting of

00:20:51.380 Elon Musk

00:20:52.120 and X.

00:20:53.780 because a

00:20:55.640 report by

00:20:56.180 the House

00:20:56.540 Weaponization

00:20:57.200 Committee

00:20:57.560 concluded that

00:20:58.320 the FTC

00:20:59.080 inappropriately

00:21:00.740 stretched its

00:21:01.560 regulatory power

00:21:02.840 to harass

00:21:03.600 what was

00:21:04.680 then Twitter.

00:21:06.600 So,

00:21:07.140 we might

00:21:07.420 actually have

00:21:07.940 documents to

00:21:08.780 show that

00:21:09.120 the FTC

00:21:09.720 was going

00:21:11.520 after Musk

00:21:12.200 for political

00:21:12.920 reasons.

00:21:14.580 Total

00:21:15.100 weaponization

00:21:15.820 of the

00:21:16.180 government.

00:21:19.700 Would you

00:21:20.540 like to

00:21:20.840 know how

00:21:21.220 the original

00:21:21.940 Twitter boycott

00:21:23.140 was organized?

00:21:24.640 So,

00:21:25.000 when Musk

00:21:25.560 said he

00:21:25.880 was going

00:21:26.140 to take

00:21:26.440 over Twitter,

00:21:27.800 can you

00:21:28.160 imagine the

00:21:28.760 amount of

00:21:29.120 panic in

00:21:30.540 the Democrats

00:21:31.280 who had

00:21:31.620 figured out

00:21:32.060 a way to

00:21:32.440 control most

00:21:33.880 of the other

00:21:34.380 sources of

00:21:35.060 news,

00:21:35.720 but if they

00:21:36.380 couldn't

00:21:36.720 control

00:21:37.120 Twitter,

00:21:38.440 then they

00:21:40.140 can't keep

00:21:40.600 the lid on.

00:21:42.840 So,

00:21:43.460 here's something

00:21:43.920 I learned.

00:21:45.180 There's a

00:21:45.980 group called

00:21:47.740 Arabella

00:21:48.760 Advisors,

00:21:51.040 and they

00:21:51.640 somehow

00:21:52.120 bankrolled

00:21:52.840 26 NGOs

00:21:54.760 who then

00:21:56.240 organized a

00:21:56.960 Twitter boycott.

00:21:58.660 So,

00:21:59.120 the NGOs

00:21:59.600 probably

00:22:00.040 wouldn't have

00:22:00.440 done this

00:22:00.960 without the

00:22:01.580 Arabella

00:22:02.160 Advisors

00:22:02.820 bankrolling

00:22:03.400 them.

00:22:04.780 So,

00:22:05.060 don't you

00:22:05.320 wonder who

00:22:05.720 they are?

00:22:06.400 Who are

00:22:06.660 these Arabella 0.98

00:22:07.640 Advisors?

00:22:09.380 Have you

00:22:09.600 ever heard

00:22:09.880 of them?

00:22:11.420 Because they

00:22:12.140 had a really

00:22:12.540 big impact

00:22:13.260 on your

00:22:14.420 life,

00:22:15.740 if you

00:22:16.500 were on

00:22:16.720 social media,

00:22:17.520 but have you

00:22:17.920 ever heard

00:22:18.220 of them?

00:22:18.980 Arabella

00:22:19.420 Advisors?

00:22:19.940 Let's

00:22:21.820 see,

00:22:22.100 I wonder

00:22:22.340 who was

00:22:22.580 on the

00:22:22.840 board of

00:22:23.260 Arabella

00:22:23.780 Advisors.

00:22:25.240 Oh,

00:22:25.920 Sam

00:22:26.260 Bankman

00:22:26.740 Freed's

00:22:27.220 father.

00:22:28.800 Sam

00:22:29.180 Bankman

00:22:29.620 Freed's,

00:22:30.180 the crypto

00:22:31.880 scam guy

00:22:32.940 who was

00:22:33.260 the biggest

00:22:33.780 donor to

00:22:34.280 the Democrats.

00:22:35.980 Yeah.

00:22:37.100 So,

00:22:37.880 Sam

00:22:38.380 Bankman

00:22:38.760 Freed's

00:22:39.200 father was

00:22:40.000 on the

00:22:40.320 Arabella

00:22:40.760 Advisors

00:22:41.420 board,

00:22:43.020 and they

00:22:43.640 bankrolled

00:22:44.220 the NGOs

00:22:44.880 to organize

00:22:45.620 a boycott,

00:22:46.440 so that

00:22:47.580 you would

00:22:47.900 probably

00:22:48.200 think that

00:22:48.800 it wasn't

00:22:49.160 organized

00:22:49.580 because it

00:22:50.100 was coming

00:22:50.420 from lots

00:22:50.940 of different

00:22:51.300 directions.

00:22:53.920 And where

00:22:55.140 did they

00:22:55.360 get their

00:22:55.660 money?

00:22:58.560 Soros. 0.78

00:22:59.800 Soros 0.94

00:23:00.380 Democracy

00:23:00.960 Alliance.

00:23:02.700 So the

00:23:03.360 Soros 0.94

00:23:03.760 Democracy

00:23:04.360 Alliance

00:23:04.840 gives money

00:23:05.500 to the

00:23:05.920 Arabella

00:23:06.400 Advisors,

00:23:07.460 and then

00:23:08.040 Sam

00:23:08.400 Bankman

00:23:08.900 Freed's

00:23:09.420 dad,

00:23:10.120 being on

00:23:10.600 the board,

00:23:11.820 and others,

00:23:13.040 give it to

00:23:13.560 these NGOs,

00:23:15.040 which are

00:23:15.880 created

00:23:16.420 specifically

00:23:17.240 to look

00:23:17.780 like they

00:23:18.240 are independent

00:23:18.920 organizations

00:23:19.700 that

00:23:20.760 coincidentally

00:23:21.500 have the

00:23:21.820 same

00:23:22.000 opinion.

00:23:23.600 Well,

00:23:23.860 there are

00:23:24.080 so many

00:23:24.520 organizations,

00:23:25.940 these non-government

00:23:27.000 organizations,

00:23:27.740 they're not even

00:23:28.200 part of the

00:23:28.640 government.

00:23:29.420 We're the

00:23:29.760 government,

00:23:30.240 we're just

00:23:30.540 listening to

00:23:31.100 the citizens

00:23:32.180 as they

00:23:32.740 express

00:23:33.120 themselves

00:23:33.660 through the

00:23:34.440 non-government

00:23:35.440 organizations.

00:23:36.320 Well,

00:23:36.500 there are 26

00:23:37.120 of them.

00:23:37.820 I mean,

00:23:38.040 if 26

00:23:38.760 non-government

00:23:39.480 organizations

00:23:40.040 all have the

00:23:40.960 same opinion,

00:23:41.940 well,

00:23:42.160 that's pretty

00:23:42.540 important,

00:23:43.020 so you better

00:23:43.320 listen to them,

00:23:43.860 because there are

00:23:44.100 26 of them.

00:23:45.260 I mean,

00:23:45.500 you don't get

00:23:45.880 26 non-government

00:23:47.720 organizations

00:23:48.320 suddenly all

00:23:49.480 of a sudden

00:23:49.800 on the same

00:23:50.280 page,

00:23:51.720 unless they're

00:23:53.060 all paid

00:23:53.460 by the same

00:23:53.940 person,

00:23:54.820 in which case

00:23:55.940 it's pretty

00:23:56.280 easy.

00:23:56.620 so how many

00:24:05.420 big organizations

00:24:06.600 do you believe

00:24:07.300 have DEI

00:24:08.280 organizations

00:24:09.060 within their

00:24:10.160 organization?

00:24:11.140 What percent

00:24:11.720 of big entities?

00:24:14.060 That would

00:24:14.380 include newspapers,

00:24:15.780 publishers,

00:24:17.280 social media,

00:24:18.360 all of them.

00:24:20.400 The big ones

00:24:21.380 are close to

00:24:21.880 100%,

00:24:22.460 I think,

00:24:22.840 at least 90%.

00:24:24.840 So now,

00:24:26.700 do you see

00:24:27.380 how the

00:24:27.880 machine works?

00:24:30.740 So let's

00:24:31.220 say the

00:24:31.900 Washington Post,

00:24:33.960 for example,

00:24:35.520 let's say the

00:24:36.040 Washington Post

00:24:36.780 does a story

00:24:37.640 and says

00:24:38.020 somebody's bad.

00:24:40.860 Did that story 0.96

00:24:41.860 necessarily

00:24:42.620 start with

00:24:44.380 the writers

00:24:44.900 at the

00:24:45.240 Washington Post?

00:24:46.300 Or did the

00:24:47.180 idea for the

00:24:47.880 story maybe

00:24:48.420 come from

00:24:48.860 another source,

00:24:49.540 such as

00:24:51.320 the CIA

00:24:52.600 or such

00:24:54.200 as

00:24:54.880 Democrat

00:24:56.080 operatives,

00:24:58.160 which are

00:24:58.920 very similar

00:24:59.480 because the

00:25:00.080 CIA and the

00:25:00.720 Democrats seem

00:25:01.460 pretty overlapping.

00:25:04.600 So if this

00:25:05.700 is the model,

00:25:06.440 you can imagine

00:25:07.020 that somebody,

00:25:08.260 a Democrat,

00:25:09.100 asked the

00:25:09.580 Washington Post

00:25:10.780 to crap

00:25:12.400 on somebody

00:25:13.000 so the

00:25:13.340 Washington Post

00:25:13.940 writes a hit

00:25:14.500 piece on them

00:25:15.140 and then

00:25:16.380 every DEI

00:25:17.460 organization

00:25:18.120 and every

00:25:19.120 organization

00:25:19.740 says,

00:25:20.240 whoa,

00:25:20.380 whoa,

00:25:20.480 whoa,

00:25:20.680 we have

00:25:21.020 to act

00:25:21.320 on this.

00:25:22.800 Do you

00:25:23.020 know why

00:25:23.280 they say

00:25:23.620 they have

00:25:23.920 to act?

00:25:24.920 Because if

00:25:25.460 you hire

00:25:25.900 a DEI

00:25:26.580 group,

00:25:27.300 they're going

00:25:27.640 to have

00:25:27.860 to get

00:25:28.380 involved in

00:25:28.920 everything

00:25:29.220 that looks

00:25:29.620 like their

00:25:29.940 business.

00:25:31.080 And do you

00:25:31.480 think they're

00:25:31.820 going to say,

00:25:32.220 oh,

00:25:32.360 that's fine,

00:25:33.020 let it roll?

00:25:34.240 Yeah,

00:25:34.480 it's just

00:25:34.760 the Washington

00:25:35.180 Post.

00:25:36.120 Don't believe

00:25:36.700 anything they

00:25:37.220 say.

00:25:38.200 Do you think

00:25:38.560 that happens?

00:25:39.320 No,

00:25:39.620 the DEI

00:25:40.180 people will

00:25:40.720 say you

00:25:41.060 have to

00:25:41.780 cancel

00:25:42.460 whoever

00:25:42.900 they're

00:25:43.140 talking about.

00:25:44.620 You have

00:25:44.920 to do

00:25:45.200 it now.

00:25:46.200 So as

00:25:46.440 long as

00:25:46.940 there's

00:25:47.380 Democrat

00:25:49.420 influence

00:25:50.240 on the

00:25:51.360 big

00:25:51.560 publications,

00:25:52.540 the big

00:25:52.860 publications

00:25:53.380 can talk

00:25:54.580 to the

00:25:54.900 public,

00:25:55.540 the DEI

00:25:56.240 groups

00:25:56.660 within big

00:25:57.280 entities

00:25:57.660 will say,

00:25:58.180 oh,

00:25:58.400 that's for

00:25:58.780 me,

00:25:59.440 I better

00:25:59.820 act quickly,

00:26:01.160 and I'm

00:26:01.880 the tail

00:26:02.240 that wags

00:26:02.700 the dog

00:26:03.180 because you

00:26:03.780 don't want

00:26:04.100 to get on

00:26:04.420 my bad

00:26:04.820 side.

00:26:05.660 I'm the

00:26:06.020 DEI

00:26:06.440 person.

00:26:07.540 Believe me,

00:26:08.220 you might be

00:26:08.760 the CEO,

00:26:09.920 but I'm the

00:26:10.820 one who can

00:26:11.340 ruin you. 0.87

00:26:12.800 So I'm

00:26:13.400 kind of the

00:26:13.800 real power

00:26:14.300 when it

00:26:14.600 comes to

00:26:14.900 the things

00:26:15.140 I care

00:26:15.480 about.

00:26:16.080 Not all

00:26:16.700 things in

00:26:17.080 the company,

00:26:17.600 but the

00:26:17.840 things I

00:26:18.200 care about,

00:26:19.800 the DEI

00:26:20.620 person is

00:26:21.580 the real

00:26:21.900 power.

00:26:23.200 So now

00:26:23.800 the Democrats

00:26:24.280 have a

00:26:24.780 model where

00:26:25.220 they can

00:26:25.540 cancel

00:26:25.940 anybody

00:26:26.540 because they

00:26:28.020 have the

00:26:28.800 signal they

00:26:29.680 can send

00:26:30.080 out,

00:26:30.420 the bad

00:26:30.720 signal,

00:26:31.580 Washington

00:26:31.920 Post,

00:26:32.440 Phil Bump

00:26:32.860 says,

00:26:33.340 whatever.

00:26:34.520 And then

00:26:34.840 the DEI

00:26:35.440 people,

00:26:36.140 without being

00:26:37.320 asked to

00:26:37.820 do it,

00:26:38.400 they would

00:26:38.680 just know

00:26:39.020 that that's

00:26:39.420 what they

00:26:39.680 do.

00:26:40.400 They activate

00:26:41.600 all the

00:26:42.280 sources of

00:26:43.400 money so

00:26:44.700 that anybody

00:26:45.240 who disagrees

00:26:46.020 with them

00:26:46.440 loses their

00:26:47.480 money immediately.

00:26:49.800 Now when you

00:26:50.480 lose your

00:26:50.860 money, you

00:26:51.180 also lose

00:26:51.660 your influence

00:26:52.340 usually.

00:26:54.120 Because you

00:26:54.460 can't build

00:26:55.800 your own

00:26:56.140 network,

00:26:56.740 you can't

00:26:57.080 hire people,

00:26:57.880 you can't

00:26:58.480 advertise,

00:26:59.280 you can't

00:26:59.600 put in a

00:27:00.020 book,

00:27:00.700 you can't

00:27:00.960 do anything.

00:27:02.040 So it

00:27:02.580 just reduces

00:27:03.200 your impact.

00:27:04.700 In the

00:27:06.060 intelligence

00:27:07.320 world,

00:27:08.660 it's called

00:27:09.300 reducing your

00:27:10.220 capacity.

00:27:11.600 So the

00:27:13.120 fact that

00:27:13.880 there's this

00:27:14.400 network and

00:27:15.360 structure of

00:27:16.220 NGOs and

00:27:17.220 DEI and

00:27:17.920 all that,

00:27:18.740 that would

00:27:19.140 increase the

00:27:19.960 capacity of

00:27:21.500 the Democrats

00:27:22.360 and then

00:27:23.460 they would

00:27:24.080 go after

00:27:26.220 the economic

00:27:27.040 assets of

00:27:28.040 their enemies,

00:27:29.360 like me,

00:27:30.400 and then

00:27:30.960 when we're

00:27:32.280 pressed down

00:27:33.160 by our

00:27:33.520 economic

00:27:33.940 situation,

00:27:35.120 then their

00:27:35.700 message can

00:27:36.380 rule.

00:27:37.060 I think

00:27:39.580 they largely

00:27:40.540 took Fox

00:27:42.540 News completely

00:27:43.360 out of the

00:27:43.760 game.

00:27:46.040 I think

00:27:46.760 Fox News is

00:27:47.480 just completely

00:27:48.180 neutered at

00:27:48.820 this point.

00:27:49.560 What do you

00:27:49.820 think?

00:27:51.380 So, and

00:27:52.840 try to do a

00:27:53.820 social media

00:27:55.200 search for

00:27:55.760 Breitbart.

00:27:57.220 Do you know

00:27:57.580 how hard it is

00:27:58.240 to find

00:27:58.580 Breitbart on

00:27:59.280 a search

00:27:59.640 engine?

00:28:00.440 It's not an

00:28:01.120 accident.

00:28:01.460 So the

00:28:03.860 largest

00:28:04.500 entities have

00:28:05.620 been economically

00:28:06.760 suppressed to

00:28:08.180 the point where

00:28:08.760 Biden can say

00:28:09.580 that immigration 1.00

00:28:10.260 is Trump's

00:28:10.920 fault.

00:28:14.300 Amazingly.

00:28:15.080 They can tell

00:28:15.840 you that January

00:28:16.440 6th was an

00:28:17.380 attempt to

00:28:17.940 overthrow the

00:28:18.580 country, and

00:28:19.880 half of the

00:28:20.360 country will

00:28:20.860 think that

00:28:21.240 actually happened.

00:28:23.280 They can tell

00:28:24.120 you anything,

00:28:25.360 and half the

00:28:25.820 country, their

00:28:26.460 half, will

00:28:27.780 think it

00:28:28.100 actually happened.

00:28:30.060 Super beats.

00:28:31.460 Stop it.

00:28:33.120 I'm not

00:28:33.560 talking about

00:28:34.020 super beats.

00:28:36.800 That's funny.

00:28:39.860 All right.

00:28:41.880 Now let me,

00:28:43.540 let's talk about

00:28:44.380 climate models.

00:28:46.440 I saw somebody

00:28:47.580 tweet to show

00:28:49.260 me that climate

00:28:50.360 models have in

00:28:51.240 fact been

00:28:51.760 successful, and

00:28:53.140 not only have the

00:28:53.800 climate models

00:28:54.460 successfully predicted,

00:28:56.040 but they've been

00:28:56.840 doing it for 50

00:28:58.000 years.

00:28:59.580 There are climate

00:29:00.220 models that are

00:29:00.940 50 years old

00:29:02.100 that have

00:29:03.500 accurately predicted

00:29:04.600 today's temperature.

00:29:06.420 Isn't that

00:29:06.780 amazing?

00:29:08.180 Yeah.

00:29:08.840 Would you like

00:29:09.340 me to understand

00:29:10.920 how the science

00:29:11.720 works?

00:29:13.420 Yeah.

00:29:14.220 Here's how

00:29:14.700 science works.

00:29:16.860 Somebody does

00:29:17.620 some science,

00:29:18.960 and then they

00:29:20.620 hand it off to 0.81

00:29:21.560 somebody who's a

00:29:23.200 big fucking liar

00:29:24.140 or doesn't know

00:29:25.120 how to do

00:29:25.580 statistics, and

00:29:27.800 then they do a

00:29:29.200 bunch of lying

00:29:29.780 and bad statistics.

00:29:31.520 And then the

00:29:32.060 people who are

00:29:33.180 fooled by this

00:29:34.080 say, hey, you're

00:29:35.940 going to have to

00:29:36.260 believe this

00:29:36.740 bullshit and bad

00:29:38.440 statistics and

00:29:39.920 ridiculous data,

00:29:41.380 because if you

00:29:42.120 don't, you're

00:29:43.220 anti-science, and

00:29:45.020 I've got somebody

00:29:45.940 who's going to

00:29:46.420 cancel you.

00:29:48.940 So let me see if

00:29:50.080 you can find out

00:29:50.980 that this will be a

00:29:52.260 test to see if I've

00:29:53.140 taught you anything.

00:29:54.940 If I taught you

00:29:55.580 anything.

00:29:55.880 So here's the

00:29:57.160 claim, that there

00:29:59.460 were a number of

00:30:00.520 models in the old

00:30:01.360 days, 50 years

00:30:02.260 ago, that tried to

00:30:03.680 predict the

00:30:04.480 temperature.

00:30:05.880 Some of them

00:30:06.780 didn't work, so

00:30:09.020 they were

00:30:09.320 discarded.

00:30:11.700 Others also

00:30:13.200 didn't work, but

00:30:14.660 they found that if

00:30:15.460 they tweaked it a

00:30:16.160 little bit, they

00:30:17.500 could get it to

00:30:18.760 back cast, you

00:30:19.980 know, they could

00:30:20.560 get it to match

00:30:21.620 the past a little

00:30:22.380 bit, and then

00:30:23.600 they would see if

00:30:24.120 it also matched

00:30:24.700 the future.

00:30:25.780 So there's a

00:30:26.500 little bit of

00:30:27.220 tweaking to make

00:30:29.380 sure that as you

00:30:30.340 go, you're

00:30:31.100 maximizing your,

00:30:32.640 you know, of

00:30:33.400 course, you'd like

00:30:34.360 to fix it as you

00:30:35.180 go, right?

00:30:35.980 So when you're

00:30:36.780 done, you find

00:30:38.220 that there were a

00:30:39.680 number of models

00:30:40.580 that actually did

00:30:42.700 predict the

00:30:43.540 temperature.

00:30:44.520 So that means

00:30:45.360 models work,

00:30:46.120 right?

00:30:46.580 Go.

00:30:50.320 Models work

00:30:51.160 because they have

00:30:52.140 models that

00:30:52.700 predicted the

00:30:53.360 temperature.

00:30:54.440 How can you

00:30:54.920 argue with that?

00:30:55.640 They're the

00:30:55.960 models.

00:30:56.380 They can show

00:30:56.800 you.

00:30:57.240 They can show

00:30:57.920 you that they

00:30:58.380 existed 50 years

00:30:59.440 ago, and they

00:30:59.940 can show you

00:31:00.400 you got the

00:31:00.740 right answer.

00:31:03.840 Do you all

00:31:04.620 see what's

00:31:05.000 wrong?

00:31:05.340 Yeah, okay.

00:31:05.880 There's the,

00:31:06.620 Brian got the

00:31:07.380 word I was

00:31:07.780 looking for.

00:31:08.980 Survivorship

00:31:09.300 bias.

00:31:11.240 If you throw

00:31:12.120 away the models 0.92

00:31:13.040 that don't

00:31:13.600 work, that's

00:31:16.580 not science.

00:31:18.880 That's like the

00:31:19.520 opposite of

00:31:20.020 science.

00:31:20.940 If you throw

00:31:21.640 away the models 0.92

00:31:22.220 that don't work,

00:31:23.040 it gives you

00:31:23.960 the impression

00:31:24.520 that somehow

00:31:25.640 you knew, you

00:31:26.960 could have

00:31:27.320 known that

00:31:27.800 these models

00:31:28.360 work and the

00:31:28.940 other ones

00:31:29.240 don't.

00:31:30.000 If you don't

00:31:30.900 know it when

00:31:31.400 the models are

00:31:32.060 created, which

00:31:33.620 ones are the

00:31:34.120 good ones, you

00:31:35.560 can't wait until

00:31:36.320 some of them got

00:31:37.080 lucky and say

00:31:38.380 these were

00:31:38.840 accurate the

00:31:39.440 whole time.

00:31:40.800 That's not

00:31:41.300 science.

00:31:43.240 That's the

00:31:43.880 scam.

00:31:44.900 Not only is it

00:31:45.780 a scam, it's

00:31:47.540 literally a scam.

00:31:50.420 Actual scams

00:31:51.520 are done that

00:31:52.440 way.

00:31:54.380 I've described

00:31:55.160 this before, so

00:31:55.880 I'll just do it

00:31:56.400 fast.

00:31:57.120 One of the ways

00:31:57.700 you could do a

00:31:58.600 scam is I'll

00:31:59.500 send you an

00:31:59.960 email and you'll

00:32:01.740 get the email and

00:32:02.400 it'll say, if you

00:32:03.740 buy this stock

00:32:04.520 today, I guarantee

00:32:05.360 it'll go up.

00:32:06.120 You're like, nobody

00:32:07.020 can predict stocks,

00:32:08.460 so you ignore it.

00:32:09.680 Next day they say,

00:32:10.740 it went up, and

00:32:12.900 here's another one.

00:32:14.020 The next one I

00:32:14.760 picked to go up is

00:32:15.720 this one, and

00:32:16.180 you're like, eh,

00:32:17.420 got lucky once, and

00:32:19.040 then the next few

00:32:20.300 days you get

00:32:20.780 another email, two

00:32:21.940 in a row, and you

00:32:23.140 can check for

00:32:23.640 yourself.

00:32:24.620 You can look at

00:32:25.160 your first email,

00:32:26.220 sure enough, recommended

00:32:27.800 these stocks, then

00:32:29.100 you can look at what

00:32:29.800 the actual price is,

00:32:30.820 and sure enough, the

00:32:32.320 two stocks that this

00:32:33.360 stranger picked and

00:32:34.760 wants you to invest

00:32:35.660 with them, they both

00:32:37.040 went up, two for

00:32:37.860 two.

00:32:39.020 Then they do it a

00:32:39.920 third time, three in

00:32:41.680 a row, and they

00:32:42.660 don't just go up,

00:32:43.460 they go up quite a

00:32:44.200 bit.

00:32:44.440 If you see three

00:32:46.320 in a row where

00:32:46.940 they call their

00:32:47.500 shot before the

00:32:48.600 shot, you're pretty

00:32:50.660 convinced, because

00:32:51.680 three out of three

00:32:52.220 is kind of hard, if

00:32:53.240 it goes up

00:32:53.920 substantially, that's

00:32:55.160 really hard.

00:32:56.060 So you give them

00:32:56.720 your money, and

00:32:58.860 then it turns out

00:32:59.400 to be a scam.

00:33:00.440 How did they get

00:33:01.280 three in a row?

00:33:02.980 Here's how.

00:33:04.820 They wrote lots

00:33:05.920 of emails to lots

00:33:07.140 of people, and

00:33:08.380 they gave different

00:33:09.320 recommendations to

00:33:10.600 the people.

00:33:12.360 Most of them were

00:33:13.300 wrong, so they

00:33:14.620 never email that

00:33:15.500 group again, because

00:33:16.620 that group doesn't

00:33:17.280 trust them.

00:33:18.100 But some of them

00:33:18.920 were right because

00:33:19.620 they got lucky.

00:33:21.040 It's just a subset,

00:33:22.180 they got lucky.

00:33:23.400 So now they say,

00:33:24.320 just to the lucky

00:33:25.000 people, here's my

00:33:26.120 new recommendation,

00:33:28.080 but again, they

00:33:28.700 don't give them one

00:33:29.340 recommendation, they

00:33:30.800 give even the new

00:33:31.640 smaller group a bunch

00:33:33.180 of new recommendations.

00:33:34.580 Again, a few of

00:33:36.140 them end up with

00:33:37.380 two in a row, just

00:33:38.940 luck.

00:33:39.340 And then they

00:33:40.980 repeat, and then

00:33:41.940 there's even a

00:33:42.540 smaller group, they

00:33:43.300 get three in a row

00:33:44.020 right, they throw

00:33:45.280 their money at you.

00:33:46.700 They throw their

00:33:47.620 money at you.

00:33:48.860 Because once you

00:33:49.640 see three in a row,

00:33:50.480 you're like, okay,

00:33:51.160 this is real.

00:33:52.660 And then you find

00:33:53.320 out it was always

00:33:54.100 just random.

00:33:56.200 That's what the

00:33:56.900 climate models are.

00:33:58.960 If they're tweaking

00:33:59.960 the models as they

00:34:01.000 go, of course you

00:34:05.220 can tweak it until

00:34:06.040 it matches the

00:34:06.780 current situation and

00:34:08.080 the past, of course

00:34:09.480 you can.

00:34:10.260 You can tweak any

00:34:11.180 model until it

00:34:12.040 hindcasts correctly.

00:34:14.360 You just change your

00:34:15.100 assumptions until it

00:34:16.000 does.

00:34:16.640 That doesn't mean it

00:34:17.520 predicts.

00:34:19.160 It just means you

00:34:20.140 can tweak it until it

00:34:21.060 matches the past.

00:34:22.580 And if you throw

00:34:23.560 away enough models,

00:34:24.620 and there are enough

00:34:25.200 different ones, some

00:34:26.800 of them are 100%

00:34:28.140 likely to be closer

00:34:29.200 than others, and

00:34:31.240 some of them might be

00:34:32.000 real close, and then

00:34:32.780 you say, well, these

00:34:33.480 are good models.

00:34:34.060 models.

00:34:34.940 Now, the real

00:34:36.960 test is to take any

00:34:38.800 one of those models

00:34:39.580 that worked over the

00:34:40.380 last 50 years, never

00:34:42.060 change them again,

00:34:43.380 don't touch them, see

00:34:45.160 how they do for the

00:34:45.840 next 50.

00:34:47.120 Do you think they're

00:34:47.660 going to do the next

00:34:48.260 50 because they did

00:34:49.100 the last 50?

00:34:50.340 No.

00:34:51.340 Do you know why?

00:34:52.660 Nobody can predict

00:34:53.780 the future.

00:34:55.240 There's no such thing

00:34:56.400 as a model that

00:34:57.320 predicts the future.

00:34:58.840 In very narrow

00:35:00.520 circumstances, sometimes

00:35:02.240 an economic model

00:35:03.660 will be useful, but I

00:35:06.120 did economic models

00:35:07.100 for a living.

00:35:08.460 That was my

00:35:09.000 background, economics,

00:35:10.320 business, and I

00:35:11.360 would do financial

00:35:12.700 projections for big

00:35:14.240 companies.

00:35:16.060 And the one thing

00:35:18.160 we all knew is you

00:35:19.340 couldn't predict more

00:35:20.200 than six months, and

00:35:23.140 after that, everything

00:35:23.860 just goes, you know,

00:35:25.760 polywumpus.

00:35:27.420 So we had no belief

00:35:30.520 that we could actually

00:35:31.260 predict the things we

00:35:32.340 were predicting, but

00:35:33.720 you can sometimes tell

00:35:35.020 what is the range of

00:35:36.120 possibilities.

00:35:37.580 So that's really all

00:35:38.580 you can get out of a

00:35:39.780 financial prediction.

00:35:41.400 It's sort of a range.

00:35:42.540 Well, it's not going to

00:35:43.220 be way up here, and

00:35:45.060 probably it's not going

00:35:46.140 to be way down here,

00:35:46.860 but it might be in this

00:35:47.720 cone somewhere, and

00:35:49.500 that could be useful.

00:35:51.140 But usually we just did

00:35:52.940 things we thought we

00:35:53.840 wanted to do and then

00:35:54.680 made the numbers

00:35:55.500 correspond to what we'd

00:35:56.800 already decided.

00:35:58.160 Like everywhere.

00:35:58.940 just like everywhere.

00:36:01.580 If you think that the

00:36:02.900 climate change people

00:36:04.520 are the only ones who

00:36:06.000 are not tweaking the

00:36:07.600 model to make it do

00:36:08.460 whatever they want, but

00:36:09.920 every other industry is.

00:36:12.140 Right?

00:36:12.440 Every other industry is,

00:36:13.640 and I guarantee that.

00:36:15.140 But not these guys.

00:36:16.480 It's the one place?

00:36:17.860 Oh, the one place where

00:36:18.820 the people who make

00:36:19.460 models that predict the

00:36:20.980 future are actually doing

00:36:22.280 it.

00:36:23.060 They can do magic.

00:36:24.400 They can see the future.

00:36:25.860 No, nobody can see the

00:36:26.740 future.

00:36:26.920 You don't know what's

00:36:28.460 going to be invented

00:36:29.180 tomorrow.

00:36:30.440 I mean, the other day I

00:36:31.260 saw there was some new

00:36:33.300 battery technology, maybe

00:36:35.240 with aluminum.

00:36:36.640 I think it was aluminum.

00:36:38.260 Instead of the current

00:36:41.100 battery technology, it was

00:36:42.240 supposed to be lighter and

00:36:43.540 more dense and better in

00:36:45.380 every way.

00:36:46.740 Well, which climate model

00:36:48.360 predicted that?

00:36:50.700 Right?

00:36:52.200 So, yeah, instead of

00:36:53.540 lithium.

00:36:54.840 Right.

00:36:55.060 So, yes, climate models

00:36:56.960 are BS and always will

00:36:58.600 be.

00:36:59.780 Well, there's shocking new

00:37:02.180 data on a study that says

00:37:04.060 the Mexican organized crime

00:37:07.680 groups are the fifth largest

00:37:09.560 employer in the country, and

00:37:11.640 there are 175,000 members in

00:37:14.760 organized crime in Mexico.

00:37:16.440 So, now, obviously, if the

00:37:26.960 cartels are getting bigger, what

00:37:29.240 can we conclude for sure?

00:37:31.900 Well, we can conclude that for

00:37:33.840 reasons that are mysterious, the

00:37:36.460 cartels are the only thing that 0.84

00:37:38.120 the CIA can't shut down.

00:37:40.300 They can overthrow entire

00:37:42.080 countries, but they can't shut 0.97

00:37:45.400 down the cartels.

00:37:46.340 They just get bigger every

00:37:47.220 year.

00:37:47.720 Huh.

00:37:48.300 What could possibly explain

00:37:49.980 that?

00:37:52.620 Could it be that the

00:37:54.880 cartels also protect some

00:37:57.080 things that the CIA wants

00:37:58.800 protected, such as maybe some

00:38:01.780 businesses in Mexico that

00:38:03.480 would rather have the cartels

00:38:05.520 protect them than attack them?

00:38:08.580 Maybe.

00:38:09.740 Maybe the CIA would like that to

00:38:11.420 happen, because, you know,

00:38:12.800 they're on the side of business.

00:38:15.400 Yeah.

00:38:16.380 Now, I don't know what's going

00:38:18.480 on there.

00:38:18.960 I'm just saying that there is a

00:38:22.700 big mystery about why we're

00:38:24.420 ineffective in this one area.

00:38:26.900 And I can't think of any reason

00:38:28.440 we'd be this ineffective,

00:38:29.880 including keeping the border

00:38:31.180 open as it is, unless we wanted

00:38:33.500 to.

00:38:34.680 Unless we wanted to.

00:38:37.400 So, there's that.

00:38:40.580 I did see that, at least somebody

00:38:46.340 is making a run at the fact

00:38:48.660 that this is in the Wall Street

00:38:50.900 Journal, so not a left-leaning

00:38:54.300 publication.

00:38:55.300 So, this is the Wall Street

00:38:56.160 Journal, which is what made it

00:38:57.300 notable.

00:38:58.200 And the Wall Street Journal says

00:38:59.420 that the immigration is already

00:39:00.980 good for the economy.

00:39:02.560 Like, this mass over-immigration 1.00

00:39:04.700 is already a plus for the economy.

00:39:08.400 Do you believe that?

00:39:09.020 The argument is that we were

00:39:12.440 so hurting for labor, when I say

00:39:15.540 we, certain businesses, industries,

00:39:18.060 they were so hurting for labor

00:39:19.320 that it's basically a lifeline.

00:39:22.480 The immigration is the only way 1.00

00:39:23.680 they can stay in business.

00:39:25.560 And that, you know, the immigrants 1.00

00:39:28.860 are adding a certain amount of

00:39:30.540 economic activity that pays for

00:39:33.160 them to be there, and we don't

00:39:34.360 make enough babies.

00:39:35.340 So, our economy would be in

00:39:38.300 serious trouble, because we don't

00:39:40.660 make babies.

00:39:41.860 And the only way we could survive

00:39:43.280 is massive immigration.

00:39:45.600 Now, I don't think that explains

00:39:47.440 why we're seeing it.

00:39:49.480 Do you?

00:39:50.800 Because if you were doing it for

00:39:52.480 the purpose of your economy,

00:39:55.860 the way you would launder that

00:39:57.780 opinion is you'd have some, you know,

00:39:59.600 board of economics experts,

00:40:01.640 experts, and then they would tell

00:40:03.380 you what kind of people to allow

00:40:04.960 in, you know, what skills we need,

00:40:06.920 and how many, and maybe from where,

00:40:09.860 I don't know.

00:40:10.800 But if you were trying to make this

00:40:12.940 an economic policy, you know,

00:40:15.740 explicitly, hey, this is good for

00:40:17.280 the country, because we're not

00:40:18.640 making enough babies, you would do

00:40:20.780 it differently.

00:40:22.000 You wouldn't do it by pretending

00:40:24.160 you're doing border security, but

00:40:25.800 doing it poorly.

00:40:26.500 That's just not the way you'd

00:40:29.180 approach it.

00:40:30.160 You would do it right out front,

00:40:31.760 because there's nothing to hide.

00:40:33.920 You would have nothing to hide

00:40:35.600 if you made the argument, we need

00:40:37.760 more people, and we don't have

00:40:39.900 another way to get them.

00:40:41.280 In fact, I think I could be

00:40:42.540 persuaded by that argument, because

00:40:44.420 I've made the same argument.

00:40:46.200 I've made the same argument that as

00:40:48.760 disruptive as immigration is now, 1.00

00:40:51.500 and it's plenty disruptive, probably

00:40:54.240 it's additive, in the long run.

00:40:57.380 It might take 10 years, but, well,

00:41:02.060 let me say it this way.

00:41:02.980 If we shut the border completely

00:41:04.700 today, and all we did is work

00:41:08.000 through the system that people have

00:41:09.380 already come in, I'm pretty sure

00:41:11.260 we'd come out ahead, because people

00:41:13.820 are money.

00:41:15.060 In our country, when there are plenty

00:41:16.760 of jobs, because we don't have a

00:41:18.440 shortage of jobs.

00:41:19.720 So if you have jobs, you just add

00:41:22.600 people, that's the whole economy.

00:41:25.840 Jobs exist, not enough people, add

00:41:28.480 some people, boom, problem solved.

00:41:30.560 So in all likelihood, as horrible

00:41:33.360 as our current system of bringing

00:41:36.040 people in, and of course they're

00:41:39.000 bringing in crime, and there must be

00:41:40.500 terrorists, and everything else in

00:41:41.700 these groups.

00:41:42.700 So, you know, the terrorists of the

00:41:44.140 crimes and all that have to be netted

00:41:46.200 out.

00:41:46.480 But even with that net, it's probably

00:41:49.740 cash positive.

00:41:51.480 Not right away, though.

00:41:53.160 You know, in the short term, cash

00:41:58.260 negative for sure.

00:42:02.720 Well, yeah, I see what you're saying.

00:42:04.780 It depends what part of the country

00:42:06.000 they come from.

00:42:07.180 And I think that's where I'm sure this

00:42:12.040 is not intentional for economic reasons.

00:42:14.680 So the fact that the immigration is 0.92

00:42:17.620 coming from everywhere is strongly

00:42:20.400 suggestive that the government is not

00:42:22.160 in control of the process.

00:42:24.360 And there might be some net positive

00:42:26.160 that comes from it, but it doesn't

00:42:27.920 look intentional.

00:42:29.420 It looks like there's some other reason

00:42:31.040 for the immigration that's not 0.99

00:42:33.140 stated.

00:42:36.340 My best guess is that the cartels want

00:42:38.960 it because it's good for the cartel

00:42:40.480 business, and that we either have too

00:42:43.900 many people working with them or

00:42:45.560 afraid of them or bribed by them or

00:42:47.760 blackmailed by them, that the U.S. 0.92

00:42:50.320 government doesn't have any power over

00:42:52.400 them, which would suggest that the

00:42:54.320 cartels have power over the United

00:42:55.760 States.

00:42:57.040 Let me put it a different way.

00:42:58.900 There's no way in hell that somebody

00:43:01.160 who lives inside the United States is

00:43:04.520 behind the mass immigration.

00:43:05.900 I don't see it.

00:43:09.800 I just don't see it.

00:43:13.280 And if you think Soros is behind it,

00:43:15.480 you're going to have to ask the second

00:43:16.900 question, who's behind Soros?

00:43:19.480 And all signs point to the same entity.

00:43:23.940 I don't know, but they all point to the

00:43:26.360 same place.

00:43:26.880 All right, you'll be amazed that Ukraine

00:43:32.680 has breached the main Russian defensive

00:43:35.720 line in the southeast of the country, and

00:43:38.180 their armored vehicles have gone through.

00:43:40.420 It's a significant milestone for the three

00:43:43.600 and a half month counteroffensive, and it

00:43:45.680 looks like they're aimed at cutting the

00:43:47.420 Russians occupying army in two, because

00:43:50.420 that's totally true.

00:43:55.640 Does anybody believe that the Ukrainians 1.00

00:43:58.320 have a substantial breakthrough?

00:44:01.460 Yeah.

00:44:02.940 It seems far more likely that the Russians 1.00

00:44:05.480 have created a weak spot so that they

00:44:09.160 would break through, so that they just

00:44:11.280 enter a kill box, and then when they're

00:44:13.860 done killing them, they'll shore it back 1.00

00:44:15.660 up again.

00:44:17.660 To me, it looks like a trick.

00:44:20.420 Because apparently they are taking heavy

00:44:23.140 losses, so even though they got humans

00:44:25.720 on the other side of the line, most of

00:44:28.080 the humans are not in mechanical vehicles

00:44:30.200 anymore, because they all got whacked.

00:44:33.840 So the news was trying to make it look like

00:44:36.080 it was a plus for Ukraine, that although

00:44:39.120 they tried to come across in their armored

00:44:42.260 vehicles, the armored vehicles were largely

00:44:44.920 taken out, but the people inside lived in

00:44:48.700 many cases.

00:44:50.220 So the humans made it across the line.

00:44:53.720 What would be less good for the Ukrainians 1.00

00:44:57.420 than to have all of their exposed humans, who

00:45:00.840 are their most limited resource, is the

00:45:05.400 humans, they're running out of people.

00:45:07.640 So now the people will be outside of armored

00:45:09.680 vehicles and behind the lines of the Russians.

00:45:13.000 How long are they going to live?

00:45:17.500 I mean, every part of this looks like a Russian 1.00

00:45:19.740 trap to me.

00:45:20.800 It's reported as a Ukrainian success, but if they

00:45:25.080 got their success and they lost their mechanical, they

00:45:29.740 lost their tanks and their armored vehicles, and they're

00:45:33.540 just running around with guns on the other side, that

00:45:37.820 doesn't look like a win.

00:45:39.500 That looks like a kill box.

00:45:41.980 I mean, with my vast military experience, I say.

00:45:45.120 I'm just saying it doesn't look like a win.

00:45:47.260 That's all I'll say.

00:45:48.920 It doesn't look like a win.

00:45:52.220 But I won't rule it out.

00:45:53.980 I mean, anything's possible.

00:45:55.420 Maybe there will be a breakthrough at some point.

00:45:58.220 Don't know.

00:45:58.680 But I would not bet any money on that.

00:46:03.760 And that, ladies and gentlemen, is all I needed to

00:46:07.040 talk about today.

00:46:07.960 Did I miss any big stories?

00:46:10.200 Is there anything I missed?

00:46:13.140 And not every tank crewman has a gun, but they

00:46:15.740 probably could find one.

00:46:23.000 Armenia.

00:46:26.040 Yeah, I don't have a tank on Armenia.

00:46:28.680 Do you think that Pence mentioning troops makes it

00:46:35.660 likely we'll put soldiers on the ground?

00:46:38.180 I can't see it happening.

00:46:40.540 So let me take the temperature.

00:46:43.680 Do you think we're going to have soldiers on the

00:46:45.560 ground in Ukraine fighting Russians?

00:46:48.480 I mean, I assume we have some in secret who are like

00:46:51.020 advisors and stuff.

00:46:51.920 I don't see that any administration could survive

00:46:55.920 that.

00:46:58.680 I don't see it.

00:47:00.300 Yeah.

00:47:03.040 So you know what would be interesting if Trump ran,

00:47:06.020 instead of running against Biden, let's say Biden is the

00:47:09.040 actual candidate.

00:47:10.420 But I always wondered what would happen if he just said he

00:47:13.380 was running against the CIA.

00:47:16.220 or he was running against, you know, some kind of machine.

00:47:23.360 He's not really running against Biden.

00:47:24.980 So my assumption is that they tried to get rid of Biden and it

00:47:38.520 didn't work, meaning that Biden needed to keep his job, probably

00:47:43.040 so he could cover his tracks and make more money and keep Hunter

00:47:46.080 out of jail.

00:47:46.900 So I think that he was probably pressured to leave or to not run.

00:47:51.280 And he decided that he was going to be stubborn.

00:47:56.100 So now it turns out they're going to send Gavin Newsom to be the

00:48:00.420 person on the ground around the GOP debates so that Gavin will be the

00:48:05.400 counter message.

00:48:07.680 They're very much keeping Gavin in the news, aren't they?

00:48:11.360 Have you noticed?

00:48:12.020 He's always in the news, just sort of hanging around.

00:48:15.120 So it does look, the people who say they're going to wait to the last

00:48:19.920 minute and slot him in there without a convention, you know, maybe even

00:48:24.140 wait until after the convention and then Biden steps down and they slip

00:48:28.760 him in somehow at the last minute, very much could happen.

00:48:33.000 But here's what I think.

00:48:35.300 I think that Biden doesn't want that to happen because I think he actually

00:48:40.960 wants to win again and I think that the Democrats are just keeping him

00:48:46.200 around, you know, governor under glass, breaking case of emergency, but that's

00:48:52.320 the best they can do.

00:48:54.680 So I think it's going to be a hilarious race and watching Biden decompose and

00:49:02.580 watching Democrats explain that it's not so bad is going to be funny.

00:49:06.920 And watching, you know, Fetterman and Feinstein and Biden and Harris try to speak

00:49:14.880 and walk and act is going to be hilarious.

00:49:18.140 There's a lot that's just funny at this point.

00:49:27.980 Are you sure Gruesome Newsom's the man?

00:49:30.340 Well, I'm sure he's the one that's chosen.

00:49:32.260 So let's talk about Michelle Obama because who was it?

00:49:40.720 Ted Cruz, he said that he believes Biden will not be the 2024 nominee and that

00:49:47.240 they will parachute in Michelle Obama.

00:49:51.440 How many of you think that Michelle Obama will be the replacement?

00:49:56.400 I'm going to put that at zero.

00:49:57.800 It's weird to hear Ted Cruz suggest it because there are a lot of things I would say, well,

00:50:05.020 that's a 10% chance or 20% chance, but I'm pretty sure that's zero.

00:50:10.940 How could they possibly win putting in somebody that they wouldn't even pretend disqualified?

00:50:17.540 That's not even pretending.

00:50:19.520 I mean, even Democrats would understand she was the spouse.

00:50:23.340 At least Hillary had the, you know, she had the experience of, you know, 0.97

00:50:29.840 government before she ran for president.

00:50:33.260 Now, I don't think there's any chance, but the funniest comment I saw from somebody on X

00:50:38.960 is that the reason that Michelle Obama will come out as trans and, quote,

00:50:49.340 that's why we have been softened up.

00:50:51.200 So one person's theory, I don't buy this theory, all right, so this is not me.

00:50:56.780 I just thought it was a funny, funny that somebody has this theory, that the whole trans conversation

00:51:02.700 has been a way to soften the country's minds up so they can drop in Michelle Obama. 0.97

00:51:10.780 She'll come public as trans and then become president and they'll have our first trans president 0.99

00:51:16.640 that we know of.

00:51:20.200 I don't think any of that's going to happen, and I don't think that the country has been softened up

00:51:24.600 for this possibility, and I don't think she's a man.

00:51:28.060 I don't think she's a man.

00:51:29.620 I'm not 100% sure.

00:51:33.800 Well, let me put this in a better comparison.

00:51:37.720 Listen, I'm 100% sure she's not going to run for president.

00:51:42.500 I'm not 100% sure she's a woman. 0.86

00:51:46.660 I'm 95% sure.

00:51:49.800 95%.

00:51:50.280 But not 100%.

00:51:53.760 But, you know, I'm not sure I would say anything different about most of you.

00:52:00.540 If I met you in person, would I be 100% sure of your gender?

00:52:06.220 100%?

00:52:07.500 I don't know.

00:52:08.640 Depends who I'm talking to.

00:52:12.360 Well, do you buy the idea that the young men who are coming up are going to reject wokeness

00:52:21.220 and change things?

00:52:24.580 I heard from quite a few people who say,

00:52:27.560 oh yeah, that's my kids.

00:52:30.540 Now, let me tell you what I've heard a lot of times,

00:52:32.800 and then I'll tell you what I've heard zero times.

00:52:35.820 I've heard a lot of reports of kids hating wokeness in all of its forms.

00:52:43.720 I've heard zero stories of somebody in school who was pushing wokeness.

00:52:51.820 None.

00:52:52.800 Not once.

00:52:53.700 Now, I'm not talking about inclusivity, because that is pushed,

00:52:58.060 you know, to make sure that everybody's included and stuff.

00:53:00.240 That's definitely pushed.

00:53:01.460 But that's not a bad impulse, and that's not even political.

00:53:05.200 But, you know, the true woke stuff,

00:53:07.460 I'm going to cancel you for the wrong pronouns and stuff. 1.00

00:53:10.140 Nope.

00:53:11.700 I think there are zero boys on that page,

00:53:14.520 and I haven't heard of any girls.

00:53:15.900 I'm imagining there are, but I haven't heard of any.

00:53:28.700 We can't get libs of TikTok.

00:53:31.840 What?

00:53:32.240 Who do I talk to that's still in school?

00:53:38.960 That's a fucked up question.

00:53:44.460 Yeah.

00:53:45.660 I know you want to, like...

00:53:48.460 Let me just say, I suspect that that's a fucked up question.

00:53:53.380 If you live in the real world, you know lots of people who have kids.

00:53:58.240 I've got my own stepkids.

00:54:02.440 Everybody's around kids.

00:54:03.680 Unless you live in, like, an old folks' home or something, 1.00

00:54:06.920 it's hard to avoid the real world.

00:54:14.360 Mind reading.

00:54:15.080 Mind reading.

00:54:15.180 Why are you trying to influence to believe it is okay?

00:54:25.460 That what is okay?

00:54:27.200 I don't even know what you're talking about.

00:54:31.880 The aliens in Mexico just sort of went away, didn't they?

00:54:39.020 Oh, yeah.

00:54:40.260 New Jersey Senator Menendez was indicted for bribery.

00:54:45.180 It sounds like they might have the goods on him

00:54:48.760 because it involved gold bars.

00:54:52.340 Apparently, he accepted, like, $400,000 worth of gold bars for something.

00:55:05.160 Hey.

00:55:06.400 Thank you for buying my book.

00:55:07.780 Thank you.

00:55:15.180 Oh, yeah.

00:55:17.060 Ken Paxton and...

00:55:19.040 So, Attorney General Paxton was on Tucker's show.

00:55:23.920 And Ken Paxton has the same belief that many of you have,

00:55:28.620 which is the discontinuing of the counting on election night in 2020,

00:55:34.400 followed by the, you know, huge spike in Democrat votes

00:55:38.360 that didn't look organic is definite proof

00:55:42.820 that the election was rigged.

00:55:45.480 Now, that's Ken Paxton's point of view.

00:55:48.440 And Tucker seemed to be nodding along with that.

00:55:51.280 And how many of you would be on the same page?

00:55:53.940 How many of you would say,

00:55:55.440 that really is a strong signal of fraud?

00:55:58.760 Now, how many of you have heard the official explanation

00:56:04.960 of why it happened?

00:56:07.380 How many could tell me in the comments,

00:56:09.440 what's the other side's story?

00:56:11.740 I'm not saying it's true,

00:56:13.680 but could you tell me the other side's story?

00:56:16.560 Like, why that made sense and it's just natural?

00:56:19.520 Well, water leak was one location,

00:56:24.280 but it wasn't just a one-location problem, right?

00:56:30.840 Weren't they just waiting for some stuff to come in?

00:56:35.380 Well, so the official story is that the...

00:56:39.520 If you're counting the ballots that were drop-box ballots,

00:56:45.000 that they're highly weighted toward Democrats.

00:56:48.100 So if you counted the regular votes during the day,

00:56:52.260 it would look close.

00:56:53.600 If you counted only the mail-in ballots

00:56:56.600 that had been done in some cases,

00:56:58.840 you know, well before the election,

00:57:00.440 those would be heavily Democrat.

00:57:02.880 So the official story,

00:57:04.660 I don't know what's true,

00:57:06.620 but the official story would look exactly the same.

00:57:11.860 Now, I hear you when you say,

00:57:13.640 I'm not buying it,

00:57:14.780 because we've been lied to so many times

00:57:17.080 that not buying it is always a good take.

00:57:20.300 But what's wrong with the...

00:57:22.460 What's wrong...

00:57:23.580 Is there anything logically or factually wrong

00:57:26.080 with the claim that the only thing that happened

00:57:28.740 is that's when they started seriously counting

00:57:31.420 the mailed-in early votes ballots?

00:57:35.680 Is there anything wrong with that...

00:57:38.080 that explanation?

00:57:45.800 Why just those states?

00:57:47.160 Because those are the states

00:57:48.340 where they stopped counting for a while.

00:57:53.940 It wouldn't be 100% Biden,

00:57:55.720 but that's not the claim.

00:57:57.100 The claim is not that it was 100% Biden.

00:57:59.660 Just that there was more Biden.

00:58:01.280 But the Biden votes could have easily been

00:58:05.080 three or four to one, right?

00:58:07.240 I don't know what the actual ratio is,

00:58:08.960 but there's such a difference in who votes by mail

00:58:12.520 that I think it's like a three to four to one

00:58:15.440 Democrat advantage.

00:58:16.900 Yeah, so the competing...

00:58:22.460 The two theories are this.

00:58:24.720 One theory is that the reason they stopped

00:58:27.200 is to find out how many they needed to fake

00:58:30.280 because they didn't want to fake more than they needed to.

00:58:33.660 It fits the observation, wouldn't you say?

00:58:36.540 The hypothesis that the only reason it was stopped

00:58:40.240 was to count the votes they needed

00:58:42.040 and they ship in the fakes,

00:58:44.360 that fits the observation.

00:58:45.500 But does it also not fit the observation

00:58:49.040 that it's exactly what they said,

00:58:51.620 which is they stopped the votes.

00:58:53.680 It might have been a water leak.

00:58:54.880 It might have been some other reason.

00:58:56.460 But when they restarted them,

00:58:58.080 they were into the mail-in ballots

00:58:59.620 and they were four to one for Biden,

00:59:01.720 and that's all it was.

00:59:04.540 What's wrong with that?

00:59:05.500 It fits observation.

00:59:10.120 Now, whether or not the water leak was real,

00:59:12.580 it wasn't just one place that stopped counting, was it?

00:59:18.440 I mean, they could have just gone home

00:59:19.960 and wanted to, you know, give some sleep

00:59:21.820 and take a shower or something.

00:59:23.360 They might have just been there all day.

00:59:26.220 So it wasn't four to one,

00:59:28.520 but there was some big advantage

00:59:29.820 in Democrats' mail-in votes.

00:59:33.460 All right, so here's my problem

00:59:36.220 with Ken Paxton.

00:59:38.240 And this is a persuasion lesson for you.

00:59:41.560 If there are two hypotheses

00:59:43.480 for why something happened,

00:59:46.440 one is, you know, hugely provocative,

00:59:49.900 the other one would be sort of normal.

00:59:52.840 It might not be true,

00:59:54.460 but it would fit in the category

00:59:55.900 of normal things happening.

00:59:57.100 If you say that you believe

00:59:59.740 the extraordinary one,

01:00:01.140 the provocative one,

01:00:02.620 and you spend zero time

01:00:04.580 talking about what the other side said

01:00:06.960 was the actual explanation,

01:00:09.380 you're full of shit. 0.93

01:00:12.440 So Ken Braxton is full of shit.

01:00:16.000 You might not be wrong.

01:00:17.800 You might not be wrong.

01:00:19.200 I'm not judging the accuracy of the claim.

01:00:21.500 I'm saying that if you go on television

01:00:23.160 in a big venue like that,

01:00:25.040 and you say there's one reason

01:00:27.100 this could have happened

01:00:27.920 when the other reason has been offered

01:00:29.740 and also fits the facts,

01:00:32.540 I lose all...

01:00:35.080 You have no credibility after that.

01:00:37.240 No credibility.

01:00:38.800 It wouldn't matter if you were

01:00:39.800 a Republican or Democrat.

01:00:41.220 If you walk into that situation

01:00:42.720 and you ignore the other explanation,

01:00:46.000 then you can be ignored

01:00:48.020 for anything else you say.

01:00:50.280 Your credibility is at zero

01:00:52.100 at that point.

01:00:52.820 Now, here's what credibility

01:00:56.400 would have sounded like.

01:00:58.360 Had he said,

01:00:59.700 well, their claim was

01:01:00.960 that it's just because

01:01:02.780 there are more mail-in votes

01:01:03.820 for Democrats.

01:01:05.220 Here's why that doesn't make sense.

01:01:08.420 But where's that?

01:01:10.860 I've been hearing

01:01:11.740 the official explanation forever,

01:01:14.100 but not once,

01:01:15.760 not once,

01:01:17.060 have I heard anybody say,

01:01:18.560 here's why the official explanation

01:01:20.180 doesn't add up.

01:01:22.680 I've never heard that.

01:01:24.260 Have you?

01:01:26.720 Seems like the most obvious thing

01:01:28.300 you'd hear.

01:01:29.160 I've never heard it.

01:01:31.820 So,

01:01:32.520 if somebody has an argument

01:01:34.200 of why the official,

01:01:35.760 the official explanation

01:01:37.380 doesn't work,

01:01:39.100 it might be a good argument.

01:01:41.320 And I'm completely open to it.

01:01:43.000 Because when Paxton and Tucker say,

01:01:45.920 this looks super suspicious,

01:01:48.440 I see it too.

01:01:50.480 Right?

01:01:50.780 Don't get on me like I'm blind.

01:01:52.420 You can't see it.

01:01:53.240 I see it.

01:01:54.260 I see it just as clearly

01:01:55.500 as you do.

01:01:56.400 I'm just saying that

01:01:57.460 when you listen to somebody

01:01:58.420 who doesn't even give

01:01:59.380 a moment

01:02:00.500 to the fact that there's

01:02:02.340 a fairly solid

01:02:04.600 counter-explanation

01:02:06.180 that also fits

01:02:07.200 the observed facts,

01:02:09.200 then I can't take you

01:02:10.380 seriously after that.

01:02:13.000 Democrats stole it

01:02:19.260 fair and square.

01:02:20.240 That's sort of where I'm at.

01:02:22.120 Where I'm at

01:02:22.820 is if they cheated better,

01:02:24.180 they won.

01:02:25.560 I thought that on day one.

01:02:27.340 I've never changed the fact

01:02:29.080 that I congratulated Biden

01:02:31.220 as soon as the race was called.

01:02:32.720 I've never backed off from that.

01:02:34.780 He became the president that day.

01:02:37.500 He's still the president.

01:02:39.520 Because if he cheated and won,

01:02:41.960 well, I guess the system

01:02:44.020 allowed that.

01:02:45.000 You don't think there were

01:02:45.760 any Republicans

01:02:46.700 who cheated a little?

01:02:48.440 I don't know.

01:02:49.740 But that's the game.

01:02:51.520 So if cheating's just

01:02:52.800 built into the game,

01:02:54.180 one side cheats better,

01:02:56.160 I give them the win.

01:02:57.860 You got the win.

01:02:59.160 Congratulations, Mr. President.

01:03:00.380 I wish it were otherwise,

01:03:03.540 but that's the way it is.

01:03:09.280 Scott, are we having a world moment?

01:03:11.800 I don't know what that means.

01:03:14.340 Yeah, the voter ID laws

01:03:15.840 are automatically registering

01:03:17.360 some people.

01:03:18.920 And again,

01:03:19.700 if that's why the Democrats win,

01:03:21.760 well played.

01:03:22.480 If the Democrats win

01:03:24.540 because they made it easier

01:03:26.200 to register migrants

01:03:28.500 and so they can illegally vote,

01:03:32.520 well played.

01:03:33.860 Good job.

01:03:35.060 I don't think that's going

01:03:36.040 to be the big thing.

01:03:37.200 I don't imagine

01:03:38.280 most of the immigrants

01:03:39.140 caring about voting.

01:03:41.720 The fact that they could vote

01:03:43.280 doesn't seem related

01:03:44.360 to the fact that they might.

01:03:45.920 I just don't see it happening.

01:03:48.900 You know,

01:03:49.120 the ones who came in this year,

01:03:50.840 how many people

01:03:52.520 who walked over the border

01:03:53.880 this year

01:03:54.860 are going to vote?

01:03:57.880 You know,

01:03:58.280 even they're not allowed to,

01:04:00.240 but technically

01:04:01.340 they could probably

01:04:01.920 get away with it

01:04:02.580 if they had the right ID.

01:04:04.080 But who's going to do it?

01:04:06.700 I don't know.

01:04:07.280 Maybe if you pay them

01:04:08.140 or something.

01:04:09.960 It seems like

01:04:10.860 not even a risk

01:04:11.740 they would take money for

01:04:12.700 because it's pretty hard

01:04:13.980 to get here.

01:04:15.080 You know,

01:04:15.400 you don't want to be

01:04:16.000 sent back

01:04:16.620 and have to come back again.

01:04:18.560 So I would think

01:04:19.520 that they would not take

01:04:20.540 a chance

01:04:21.520 on something

01:04:21.960 as inconsequential

01:04:23.080 as one vote

01:04:23.920 in an election

01:04:25.060 that they don't even know

01:04:25.920 who's running.

01:04:33.420 All right.

01:04:37.180 They won't be involved.

01:04:42.640 Yeah, maybe.

01:04:47.000 How do we defeat the machine?

01:04:48.540 I don't think you can.

01:04:50.540 Maybe you need to join them.

01:04:54.200 Maybe we should all

01:04:54.840 just become Democrats.

01:04:56.520 Oh, that would work.

01:04:58.260 If all Republicans

01:04:59.540 just re-registered

01:05:00.780 as Democrats,

01:05:02.500 they could probably

01:05:03.260 have anything they wanted.

01:05:05.080 What would stop you

01:05:05.920 from doing that?

01:05:07.940 Couldn't 100% of Democrats

01:05:09.520 just re-register?

01:05:11.480 It would make

01:05:12.360 all polling obsolete.

01:05:13.960 You can make polling 0.72

01:05:16.620 obsolete.

01:05:18.340 Just re-register.

01:05:20.620 That's what I did.

01:05:21.940 That's why I'm

01:05:22.380 a registered Democrat.

01:05:23.880 Once the Democrats

01:05:25.360 labeled me a racist,

01:05:26.940 I thought,

01:05:27.320 well,

01:05:27.400 I'm not going to slime

01:05:28.180 the poor Republicans.

01:05:29.400 They didn't do anything

01:05:30.100 to me.

01:05:31.180 So I decided

01:05:32.000 to take my bad reputation

01:05:33.320 over to the Democrats

01:05:34.260 where it belongs.

01:05:39.320 Andrew Tate

01:05:40.020 just registered

01:05:40.740 as a Democrat.

01:05:41.440 Did that really happen?

01:05:46.740 I can't tell

01:05:47.460 if you're joking.

01:05:50.260 No, he can't.

01:05:51.200 Well, he can't vote.

01:05:52.540 Wait a minute.

01:05:52.940 He's not even a citizen,

01:05:53.900 is he?

01:05:57.800 I don't think

01:05:58.760 he can vote.

01:06:01.640 All right.

01:06:03.080 Fetterman has been

01:06:03.820 replaced by a body double.

01:06:05.880 Where in the world

01:06:06.640 would you get

01:06:07.140 a second person

01:06:07.920 who looks like him?

01:06:11.440 And if you wanted

01:06:12.800 a body double,

01:06:13.760 would you give your body double

01:06:15.020 a porn mustache?

01:06:16.480 Because I feel like

01:06:17.320 the porn mustache

01:06:18.240 is sort of a giveaway.

01:06:22.240 He does look different.

01:06:25.940 Yeah,

01:06:26.520 he does look different.

01:06:27.780 And he's admitted

01:06:28.560 that he has some kind

01:06:29.360 of permanent cognitive,

01:06:31.120 at least linguistic,

01:06:32.780 problem.

01:06:33.080 But I guess

01:06:36.360 the Democrats

01:06:37.160 are happy with that.

01:06:38.000 They got what they wanted.

01:06:39.560 All right.

01:06:39.860 That's all I got

01:06:40.320 for you today.

01:06:41.720 YouTube.

01:06:48.720 Predicting

01:06:49.080 we won't need

01:06:49.920 to vote.

01:06:51.600 Well,

01:06:52.080 I think he was being

01:06:52.780 hyperbolic

01:06:53.920 when he said that.

01:06:58.640 All right.

01:06:59.500 That's all for now.

01:07:00.460 YouTube.

01:07:01.060 Talk to you tomorrow.

01:07:01.760 future as well.

01:07:04.480 It's fun.

01:07:05.340 Stay tuned.

01:07:07.220 I'll be right here.

01:07:08.940 All right.

01:07:09.360 happy now.

01:07:09.540 Welcome to

01:07:09.920 Far out.

01:07:12.580 Bye.

01:07:13.120 Bye.

01:07:13.660 Bye.

01:07:13.780 Bye.

01:07:18.640 Bye.

01:07:25.380 Bye.

01:07:25.480 Bye.

01:07:26.220 Bye.

01:07:26.360 Bye.

01:07:26.720 Bye.

01:07:26.760 Bye.

01:07:26.860 Bye.

01:07:27.520 Bye.

01:07:27.620 Bye.

01:07:28.680 Bye.

01:07:28.920 Bye.

01:07:30.800 Bye.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - September 22, 2023

Episode 2239 Scott Adams： More Reports On The Gears Of The Machine. It Is Completely Clear Now

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