Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2247 Scott Adams： All The Fake News (And Maybe Some Real Stuff) That Is Fit To Sip

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of human civilization as we know it.

00:00:11.040 If you'd like your experience today to be elevated to levels that I can't even describe,

00:00:17.460 it will feel so good.

00:00:18.880 Well, all you need for that is a cup or mug or a glass, a tank or jellis or stein, a canteen

00:00:23.140 jug or flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:25.900 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:00:27.460 I like coffee.

00:00:28.300 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that

00:00:33.960 makes everything better.

00:00:35.240 It's called the simultaneous sip, and it happens now.

00:00:38.700 Go.

00:00:45.460 Well, that was delightful.

00:00:48.400 Well, how many of you have yet seen my interview with Megyn Kelly?

00:00:52.980 I thought I did my clearest job of explaining my cancellation, but we talked about lots of

00:01:01.900 other stuff, from hypnosis to persuasion to Trump to you-know-what.

00:01:07.260 So I tweeted a link to it just this morning.

00:01:09.620 You'll see it at the top of my feed.

00:01:11.720 You should also look for my interview with Michael Malice, also Trigonometry, and Roseanne.

00:01:20.240 Those are some good ones if you want some entertainment.

00:01:23.780 Well, the Hollywood writer's strike is over.

00:01:27.380 Finally.

00:01:28.880 Finally, the Hollywood writer's strike is over.

00:01:31.680 Wow.

00:01:34.040 So I guess I can get back to what?

00:01:39.460 Watching three-hour movies again?

00:01:42.460 No, thank you.

00:01:44.080 Watching scripted TV shows?

00:01:48.160 I don't remember the last time I did that.

00:01:51.320 Although I do like some series sometimes.

00:01:53.800 But I didn't really notice.

00:01:59.000 Did anybody notice there was a writer's strike?

00:02:01.520 Because movies came out.

00:02:04.240 I didn't really notice.

00:02:06.680 But it's over.

00:02:08.080 So now that it's over, the good news is that we'll get more of that same one movie that they

00:02:15.260 keep writing that involves somebody tied to a chair immediately after a car chase.

00:02:20.980 That involves a helicopter.

00:02:23.800 Helicopter, car chase, tied to a chair.

00:02:26.920 There's your movie.

00:02:27.960 Boom.

00:02:29.300 Now, part of what the writers got, in addition to, I don't know, some more movie from streaming

00:02:34.700 and more upside if things do well, they also got some restrictions on using AI to write

00:02:44.360 scripts.

00:02:45.660 So now the big studios won't be able to write scripts with AI.

00:02:49.260 And that's a problem because what is the easiest way to rewrite a script and make it woke?

00:02:58.100 I'm pretty sure it's AI.

00:02:59.920 You can just take any classic movie and say, AI, rewrite this.

00:03:04.820 But make sure that the lead character is black and female.

00:03:09.620 Do you remember a series called The Boys?

00:03:13.480 It was about these superpowers, these people with superpowers who were not all good people.

00:03:20.020 Well, there was a version of it that came back, Gen 5, it's called.

00:03:26.080 And it got fixed because the old version was deeply flawed, but now they fixed it by making

00:03:34.580 the lead character a black woman.

00:03:37.460 So much, much, much improved.

00:03:40.780 She's a good actress, actually. 0.82

00:03:42.240 But it does feel a little bit on the nose that we're just taking things that were popular

00:03:48.760 before and changing just that one thing.

00:03:53.520 All right.

00:03:56.340 Were you ever worried that AI would sort of get outside of its guardrails and that there

00:04:03.100 would be an AI that was not, you know, woke and controlled by people and it could answer

00:04:09.720 any question?

00:04:10.420 Well, that just happened.

00:04:14.960 So if you were ever worried that AI, should it escape from its guardrails, would be an existential

00:04:21.380 threat to the entire planet, that's where we are.

00:04:26.600 So there's a well-funded AI company that released an undeletable chatbot.

00:04:35.060 So they released it on, what's it on?

00:04:40.420 They put it on, what's that service where it's all distributed?

00:04:49.480 A torrent.

00:04:50.840 So it's, so they published it as a torrent, meaning that it's distributed on various computers

00:04:57.160 and as long as there's even one person who still has it on one computer anywhere in the

00:05:01.960 world, anybody can get to it.

00:05:04.240 So there's an undeletable, uncensored, un-guardrailed AI available to anybody who wants to get to

00:05:17.520 it.

00:05:18.480 And based on where it is, it'll be mostly people with bad intentions.

00:05:22.160 So apparently this one will give you instructions for self-harm.

00:05:27.100 It'll tell you how to reintroduce Jim Crow laws and, I don't know, how to do ethnic cleansing. 0.99

00:05:35.860 I mean, just awful stuff.

00:05:37.180 And I didn't know this, but apparently there have developed two schools of philosophy about

00:05:45.820 AI.

00:05:46.860 One is you've got to keep all those guardrails on there.

00:05:50.780 And the other is you've got to release it and let the public do what it does, and that's

00:05:55.240 the only way we'll be safe.

00:05:56.420 And I have to admit, there is some intellectual appeal to treating AI like you treat free speech

00:06:05.600 when you're doing it right, which is you let the free speech take care of the other free

00:06:10.160 speech.

00:06:12.160 If you had AI that was unrestricted and AI that's restricted, they could sort of play with each

00:06:19.360 other.

00:06:20.380 In other words, you might get to a better place with having at least some unrestricted AI,

00:06:25.400 just so you can see the difference.

00:06:29.920 You're permanently banned from X this week.

00:06:32.960 What the hell did you do to get permanently banned from X?

00:06:35.940 That takes some work.

00:06:38.520 Yeah, torrent is uncensorable.

00:06:40.440 That's the idea behind it.

00:06:43.440 All right, we'll see if that destroys the world.

00:06:46.740 There's some new research that says trees give off some kind of chemical that we didn't

00:06:53.660 know about, or at least we didn't know how it affected things.

00:06:57.380 And it has some kind of influence on mist or clouds.

00:07:00.200 And the big implication of this is it means our climate models were wildly, let's say, wildly

00:07:08.440 ignoring a big variable.

00:07:11.160 Now, do you think it's the only big variable?

00:07:13.380 Do you think that it's a real thing that scientists can see the future because they have models?

00:07:22.760 No, it's not a real thing.

00:07:25.100 Do you think that someday we'll look back at this era and we will laugh at the fact that

00:07:31.400 anybody thought models could predict the future?

00:07:34.600 Yes, we will.

00:07:36.800 We will someday look back at this and laugh at ourselves that we ever believed that meta-analysis

00:07:42.200 was real or that, you know, you could predict the climate in 40 years.

00:07:47.540 It will all look funny to us.

00:07:50.460 And then we'll say, okay, that was mostly for persuasion.

00:07:54.200 They did that.

00:07:56.280 All right, so Musk is taking on Germany.

00:07:58.580 Well, it feels like a fair fight because there are eight German NGOs, so non-government

00:08:07.140 organizations, ships in the Mediterranean Sea that are apparently picking up illegal immigrants

00:08:13.500 off the coasts of Africa and delivering them to Italy. 0.59

00:08:19.620 So they're German boats, but not German government.

00:08:23.340 They're non-government entities.

00:08:25.020 But they're massively taking loads of immigrants to Italy.

00:08:31.680 Now, Elon Musk was, you know, pointing out the, let's say, the bad idea here.

00:08:39.240 The bad idea being ignoring borders and just dumping immigrants anywhere. 0.98

00:08:44.800 And the German government clapped back at him and looked like idiots.

00:08:51.360 They looked like idiots.

00:08:52.480 Because Elon Musk is sort of a hard person to clap back at in public.

00:08:59.040 It's not going to work out for you.

00:09:00.880 It didn't work out for them.

00:09:02.760 But I don't know why they're doing it, other than maybe to make sure they don't end up in

00:09:07.320 Germany.

00:09:09.080 Is it a trick to, and then I thought, well, what if we did that?

00:09:13.900 What if we took all the immigrants and put them on boats and shipped them to Cuba or something? 1.00

00:09:22.620 I don't know.

00:09:23.020 Wherever you ship them.

00:09:24.020 But they would just come back, I guess.

00:09:25.400 So that wouldn't work.

00:09:27.240 All right.

00:09:28.720 So Caitlin Collins was talking to Mike Pence on CNN.

00:09:35.100 And I thought, Mike Pence finally has a use.

00:09:38.840 I liked him as a vice president.

00:09:40.960 But he finally has a use now.

00:09:43.140 And the use is he can be invited on shows so they can ask him his reaction to their opinions

00:09:50.320 about Trump.

00:09:52.800 That's all he is now.

00:09:54.380 He's the guy you invite so you have an excuse to talk about Trump.

00:09:59.580 That's what he is.

00:10:00.400 He's the Trump excuse person, or excuse to talk about him.

00:10:05.620 So Caitlin tweeted this.

00:10:08.180 We pressed Mike Pence tonight on Donald Trump's rhetoric lately, from claiming that General

00:10:13.640 Milley committed treason, to saying news networks should be investigated for such, and also mocking

00:10:19.800 the brutal attack on Paul Pelosi.

00:10:21.580 Now, do I need to explain to Caitlin that those are not bugs, those are features?

00:10:33.240 How many of you like Donald Trump less because he claims General Milley was a treasonous?

00:10:41.800 You like him less, right, because of all that?

00:10:45.580 No, no.

00:10:46.460 You like him more because he's right.

00:10:48.640 How about when he says bad things about the news networks?

00:10:54.280 Oh, God.

00:10:56.020 The bad taste in my mouth I get when he says that the news is fake.

00:11:00.480 No, I like that.

00:11:01.540 I like that.

00:11:02.800 How about when he mocks the brutal hammer attack on Paul Pelosi?

00:11:07.600 Oh, such bad.

00:11:09.180 Well, it's kind of funny.

00:11:11.220 But bad, bad manners that make me laugh.

00:11:16.080 So, stop being so terrible in ways that make people clap and laugh and stuff.

00:11:24.260 So, I feel like Trump can just do his same trick a million times in a row, and it will work

00:11:33.720 a million times.

00:11:35.440 I think I'll say something that the news has to cover because they think I went too far.

00:11:40.860 Hmm.

00:11:42.000 Let's see.

00:11:43.400 Paul Pelosi hammer attack.

00:11:45.080 Yeah.

00:11:47.140 Yeah.

00:11:48.640 That could work.

00:11:52.860 All right.

00:11:53.980 Locals, I'm going to turn you upside down.

00:11:58.000 My eye contact was in the wrong place here.

00:12:03.080 Oh, did it turn it off?

00:12:04.480 Of course.

00:12:05.580 Yes.

00:12:06.080 Of course it turned it off.

00:12:08.080 There, we're back.

00:12:08.800 All right.

00:12:10.580 All right.

00:12:11.700 Well, that's why Trump is leading the field, because he says all those things that CNN doesn't

00:12:15.620 like.

00:12:16.780 And why is Pence not leading the field?

00:12:19.400 Because he doesn't say any of those things, for example.

00:12:22.680 Well, Nikki Haley is getting tough about China and fentanyl, so she tweeted this, stop all

00:12:30.600 normal trade relations with China until they stop killing Americans with fentanyl poison. 0.84

00:12:36.100 I like the cut of her jib.

00:12:40.480 I kind of like that.

00:12:42.560 Now, I don't know about all trade relations or normal trade relations, but maybe diplomatic

00:12:48.580 relations.

00:12:49.400 Maybe send back the kids of the elites that are in our colleges, maybe give them a deadline

00:12:56.740 and then remove all of our diplomats.

00:13:00.960 I've always thought we should remove our diplomats from China until they stop fentanyl, because why

00:13:05.980 would you have diplomats just acting like it's business as normal when tens of thousands of

00:13:11.860 our people are being slaughtered?

00:13:14.220 I say we should remove our diplomats.

00:13:19.740 We can still talk to them, obviously.

00:13:21.680 There's a million ways to talk to them.

00:13:23.420 But I think we should shame them.

00:13:25.900 I think this should be about embarrassment.

00:13:28.440 So we should be embarrassing China and not hurting them economically, because that probably 0.96

00:13:32.520 hurts us as much.

00:13:34.300 But I like the toughness on that.

00:13:38.820 So there's a new trend on TikTok.

00:13:41.460 I guess it's not actually that new, but apparently idiots on TikTok believe they can pound their

00:13:50.040 own faces with hammers to change the shape of their faces.

00:13:56.240 Really?

00:13:57.760 So I guess for a year or so, this has been a growing meme of people pounding their faces

00:14:02.860 with hammers to change what their face looks like.

00:14:07.380 Now, let me ask you that.

00:14:09.720 I'll ask you this.

00:14:11.940 Do you think that if TikTok can convince some people to pound their face with hammers, which

00:14:17.240 you would imagine would be among the very hardest things you could ever talk somebody into?

00:14:22.120 Hey, you know what would be a good idea?

00:14:25.200 You see that hammer?

00:14:27.060 You see your face?

00:14:28.820 You see where I'm going with this?

00:14:30.580 That's right.

00:14:31.660 Pound your face as hard as you can with a hammer.

00:14:34.000 And watch how good looking you become.

00:14:35.600 And then people start doing it.

00:14:39.080 Now, if you can convince any percentage of the public to hit themselves in the face with

00:14:44.920 hammers a lot, not just a little, but a lot, do you think you can't program a child to

00:14:51.920 change their priorities, their political opinions, their gender assumptions about themselves,

00:14:58.620 their desire to procreate, their will to live?

00:15:05.000 Of course you can.

00:15:06.480 If you can convince people to pound themselves in the face with a hammer, there are no guardrails.

00:15:15.220 There's nothing you can't talk them into at that point.

00:15:17.960 So, it seems to me that China literally has a kill switch for the United States, and they've 0.97

00:15:27.060 already pushed it.

00:15:29.260 If we leave TikTok in place, it will be guaranteed to destroy the country.

00:15:35.100 And Congress is unwilling or unable to do anything about it.

00:15:40.980 Completely useless.

00:15:43.000 Completely useless.

00:15:43.780 Yeah, it's like we don't even have a homeland defense.

00:15:47.740 How much do we spend on homeland defense?

00:15:49.720 We should just eliminate their budget.

00:15:52.520 Just eliminate it.

00:15:53.880 Because if you're not going to do the most basic thing, ban TikTok, all the military in

00:15:59.500 the world won't help you if you allow their propaganda in without any filters.

00:16:05.600 So, we wouldn't even need a military if we're going to allow TikTok to run unfettered, because

00:16:11.140 they can just win that way without firing a shot.

00:16:14.360 And that's what's happening.

00:16:17.000 So, apparently, the only people who don't understand the risk of TikTok are elected members 0.73

00:16:21.760 of Congress.

00:16:23.500 Or so they would tell us.

00:16:25.600 They think it's about data security.

00:16:28.180 It's not.

00:16:29.140 It's really not about data security.

00:16:30.900 It never was.

00:16:31.760 Well, RFK Jr. says he will, I guess on October 9th, he's expected to announce he will run

00:16:40.620 third-party, independent.

00:16:43.420 And then the big question is, who will he take votes from?

00:16:48.840 I've seen smart people say that he will take them from Trump.

00:16:52.600 And I understand that.

00:16:54.900 Because it's a lot of crossover appeal.

00:16:56.520 I just read your comment about Abraham.

00:17:05.180 That was pretty funny.

00:17:09.120 And I think maybe, but Newsweek says that a third of Democrat voters are likely to vote

00:17:14.480 for Kennedy if he runs, which would be, I assume, a lot more than the percentage of Republicans.

00:17:21.740 And here's where that Trump solid base really, really matters.

00:17:29.960 Because his base isn't going anywhere.

00:17:33.200 Yeah, they're definitely not going to vote for somebody who's pro-abortion, for example.

00:17:39.260 So, I've got a feeling that it's going to be way easier for Democrats to switch over to Kennedy

00:17:47.800 than for Republicans.

00:17:49.280 So, I think it's completely unpredictable.

00:17:52.900 So, I'm going to stick with it's unpredictable.

00:17:55.260 But, if you forced me, I think you'll take more votes from Democrats.

00:18:01.880 What do you think?

00:18:03.080 What's your best guess?

00:18:05.180 You'll take more votes from who?

00:18:09.680 Democrats?

00:18:11.780 Sernovich says it hurts Trump.

00:18:14.080 Yeah, I've heard other people say that as well.

00:18:15.680 You know, the numbers are the numbers.

00:18:18.440 We'll probably have pretty good numbers for this by the time he announces.

00:18:22.340 Because you have to wait until he's, like, really running before people can take him seriously.

00:18:28.280 Jack Posovic thinks that he'll take votes.

00:18:31.780 Well, he will take votes from both.

00:18:34.280 So, I certainly agree he will take votes from Trump.

00:18:37.560 But I don't know if we know the net.

00:18:39.920 I really don't.

00:18:40.880 I think it's very unpredictable.

00:18:42.680 It could go either way.

00:18:45.800 And I think people are...

00:18:48.400 I think the public has not really paid much attention.

00:18:54.080 What's the results?

00:18:58.440 Yeah.

00:18:58.880 All right.

00:19:02.720 So, we'll keep an eye on that.

00:19:05.960 Did you see Steve Schmidt, who's the big anti-Trumper, Lincoln, Lincoln Log or whatever.

00:19:14.280 What's his, the Lincoln Project?

00:19:17.460 So, he's a well-known anti-Trumper who pretends he used to be Republican.

00:19:22.940 I guess he used to be a Republican, but now he's an anti-Trumper.

00:19:26.060 And he was on the podcast, NBD.

00:19:33.860 I'm dyslexic.

00:19:36.500 What are the letters?

00:19:37.840 PBD.

00:19:39.200 PBD.

00:19:39.660 He was on the PBD podcast.

00:19:42.620 And really got into a shouting match because he believes that January 6th was just the worst thing.

00:19:50.880 The worst thing.

00:19:51.920 Worse than Pearl Harbor, worse than, I don't know about Pearl Harbor, but worse than January 6th.

00:19:59.560 And he got really angry and was like, you know, yelling.

00:20:03.120 And I saw two, well, I guess there were four or five people on the panel.

00:20:09.320 And I saw some of the worst debaters I've ever seen in my life on both sides.

00:20:15.660 It was like they couldn't debate themselves out of a paper bag.

00:20:19.340 How could you not beat that guy in a debate about whether it was an insurrection?

00:20:25.360 That's the easiest argument in the world.

00:20:28.360 Here's how you do it.

00:20:29.260 So, Steve, so you say January 6th was an insurrection and the country was almost lost.

00:20:38.960 Yes, yes, yes, what do I think?

00:20:41.280 Oh, Trump sucks.

00:20:42.940 That's my best impression of Steve Schmidt.

00:20:46.840 So if you go hard at him the way the other podcasters do, you end up in a shouting match with a shouter. 1.00

00:20:54.700 He's a shouter. 0.50

00:20:55.520 You get in a shouting match with a shouter, you're not going to win, right? 1.00

00:21:00.440 So here's how you should play it.

00:21:07.500 All right, let me understand, Steve.

00:21:09.700 Would you agree with the statement that the Second Amendment is definitely not going to protect against the military of the United States?

00:21:19.400 Would you agree?

00:21:20.720 Now, this is not what Republicans think, and it's not what I think.

00:21:23.760 But Democrats think that, and he's joined that side.

00:21:28.260 So I'm not sure if he's where he would answer on this, because he used to be a Republican.

00:21:32.600 This will work better with people who are always Democrats.

00:21:36.040 So you say, all right, your belief is, and I believe Biden has said this clearly,

00:21:40.400 that your Second Amendment rights are going to be useless if your government turned fascist,

00:21:46.880 because the government has nuclear weapons and whatnot. 0.98

00:21:49.700 So you first get your Democrat to admit that guns and individuals would be useless against the country with the military.

00:21:59.460 And then you ask them to explain how people who didn't have guns, for the most part,

00:22:05.620 would overthrow the military of the United States by trespassing and some of them getting violent,

00:22:13.120 but basically staying in one room.

00:22:15.160 Can you game that through?

00:22:18.820 And then he would say something like, I imagine,

00:22:21.480 oh, they were trying to cancel the progress of the government who was going to certify the vote.

00:22:32.760 And then I'd say, okay, were they trying to cancel it forever?

00:22:36.460 Oh, yeah, cancel it forever.

00:22:38.240 Okay, but you know nobody said that, right?

00:22:39.940 Literally nobody said cancel it forever.

00:22:44.760 Every person there plus Trump just wanted to delay it.

00:22:48.500 Are you aware of that?

00:22:50.120 They were talking about a delay.

00:22:52.080 Oh, yeah, but they had those fake electors, so it wouldn't be temporary because they had those fake electors.

00:22:56.940 And then you say, were they fake electors or was it completely transparent alternate electors who would be used as a placeholder in case the process, you know, went in that direction?

00:23:13.520 Oh, yeah, but, you know, you can call them alternate if you want, but they're fake.

00:23:16.740 They're fake.

00:23:17.160 You tried to get those fake electors in there.

00:23:19.460 Okay, but suppose he did try that.

00:23:22.600 What would happen next?

00:23:23.940 Would the entire government just stay and then everybody would just obey the government that did not win the election according to the officials?

00:23:32.860 Do you think that would happen?

00:23:34.920 Well, oh, he's got the military too.

00:23:38.080 Yeah, but the military was just going to follow the person who didn't win the election?

00:23:44.560 Well, yeah, but the fake electors.

00:23:48.120 So you don't think that would have gone to the Supreme Court?

00:23:50.660 Well, but the Supreme Court is filled with a bunch of, you know, Trump supporters.

00:23:58.840 To which I say, so you believe that originalists, the people who follow the Constitution to the letter, would play fast and loose with who the electors are?

00:24:13.520 You think that that's the group of people who's going to get creative in their interpretation.

00:24:20.080 Literally the opposite of why they were hired and everything about them.

00:24:25.900 So that's the conversation I want to see.

00:24:30.440 I want to see somebody game it out and show that somehow Trump could have won if that had ever been his intention to overthrow the government.

00:24:40.980 How would that work?

00:24:42.840 And who would believe it would work?

00:24:49.360 All right.

00:24:51.740 You got some drunk people already this morning.

00:24:54.480 Some drunks in the comments.

00:24:57.200 All right.

00:24:57.680 Well, enough about that.

00:24:59.660 So apparently the DOJ is charging the person who leaked Trump's tax returns, as well as thousands of the nation's wealthiest individuals, and leaked it to two media organizations.

00:25:17.020 Thousands of the nation's wealthiest individuals and their private tax returns were stolen and given to the media.

00:25:25.660 And he's charged with one count.

00:25:30.580 One count.

00:25:36.160 Shouldn't you go to jail for a really long time for that?

00:25:40.260 That feels like a little bit bigger than a January 6th person strolling around.

00:25:46.540 Feels a little bit bigger.

00:25:47.520 So, yes, I think Mike Cernovich is maybe close to right here, that if the Republicans lose, maybe everybody who's a Republican is going to jail, including me.

00:26:02.680 He might be right about that.

00:26:04.400 We'll have to see.

00:26:07.480 But I'm not going to jail, so don't worry about that.

00:26:13.480 Shutting down the government, we'll get to that.

00:26:15.300 Bill Maher is back on his show and says very directly and clearly and did a whole piece about it that Biden's too old and he needs to step down so he doesn't become Ruth Bader Biden.

00:26:33.000 And Bill Maher goes on to say what a great job Biden has done so far.

00:26:39.800 For example, he handled Ukraine.

00:26:43.680 That was one of his on his list was Biden handled Ukraine, did a good job handling Ukraine.

00:26:52.600 That's Bill Maher's opinion.

00:26:55.340 He did a good job.

00:26:57.020 You know what a good job handling Ukraine would look like?

00:27:00.960 No war with Ukraine.

00:27:02.340 I'm pretty sure that the war itself was the mistake, not how you handled it once the war started, about not having that war.

00:27:12.320 That would have been a much better outcome.

00:27:14.840 And I'm reasonably positive.

00:27:17.620 I feel positive that Trump would have not allowed that war to happen.

00:27:21.360 Do you agree?

00:27:22.600 I mean, that's just speculation because who knows.

00:27:25.360 But everything about him suggests that that wouldn't have happened.

00:27:28.500 You know, maybe they would have waited four years, but I don't think they would have done it under Trump.

00:27:33.460 Doesn't feel like it would have happened.

00:27:36.720 So that's weird.

00:27:42.100 Well, Thomas Massey tweeted today, I said, I've always fought for single subject bills.

00:27:48.960 So he's fought against the idea that they put a bunch of bills together so that you can't say no to any of it.

00:27:54.840 Otherwise, you'll shut down the government.

00:27:56.280 And he says, and the efforts of my friends who are stopping Republican bills from passing this week might be rooted in the same conviction.

00:28:05.680 So he's still very much in favor of single topic bills.

00:28:10.620 But he goes on and says, but I believe that a well-meaning activity is going to lead to opposite and undesirable outcomes.

00:28:17.500 So I assume the undesirable outcome is that it crashes the government.

00:28:24.480 The government closes and bad things happen.

00:28:27.460 To which I say, I challenge the assumption that failing to pass bills and thus plunging the country into chaos is the bad outcome.

00:28:37.940 What makes you think that's the bad outcome?

00:28:39.980 We can certainly see that very specific and predictable bad things will happen.

00:28:47.020 But how do you compare that to the benefit?

00:28:50.080 Because the benefit is unknown.

00:28:52.780 I would say if you have a system, if your current system is designed to destroy the country,

00:28:58.860 then changing it is the only risk-free thing you can do.

00:29:03.180 It's the only way you can reduce your risk.

00:29:06.040 You can increase the rate at which we fail if we close the government and never open it up again, I suppose.

00:29:14.920 But if you broke the system temporarily, like just destroyed it,

00:29:20.080 so people are wandering around and everything's just going to hell, 0.61

00:29:23.980 if that leads to fixing the system, as in, all right, all right, we give up.

00:29:30.320 All the bills will be single-topic from now on.

00:29:32.900 It's the only way we can agree.

00:29:35.060 If that happened, I would say that we'd be way ahead,

00:29:38.280 even if there was a tremendous cost to get there,

00:29:41.720 because our current design guarantees obsolescence of the country.

00:29:46.560 The current system allows every politician to be safe in their vote,

00:29:53.000 voting for things they shouldn't be voting for,

00:29:54.940 or at least budgets the size they should not be voting for.

00:29:58.020 So you have to make it hard for the politicians to hide their support

00:30:02.600 or lack of support for various topics.

00:30:05.900 So you get something closer to a free market with some kind of transparency.

00:30:12.100 But short of that, you have a system design problem.

00:30:17.480 If the design of the system is to hide what people's intentions are

00:30:21.880 and also to make it nearly impossible to vote against an enormous budget,

00:30:28.120 that's a guaranteed failure.

00:30:30.860 So yes, I would take complete chaos over a guaranteed failure,

00:30:36.080 because guaranteed failure might be the only way to get to a better system.

00:30:40.620 Just doing what you're doing is just guaranteed to fail.

00:30:44.380 So under those conditions, it's easy to make a decision.

00:30:48.160 You take the big risk.

00:30:50.060 Because the big risk is actually smaller risk than doing nothing.

00:30:55.520 Accelerate.

00:30:56.740 Make it worse. 0.60

00:30:58.720 That's the way to go.

00:31:01.800 And I love tweeting, doing a response to Thomas Massey,

00:31:08.180 because there's always a non-zero chance he's going to respond directly,

00:31:13.260 which he did, you know, in minutes.

00:31:16.700 Now, these are the moments that make you feel confident in your government.

00:31:21.260 You know, Thomas Massey puts his opinion out there.

00:31:24.640 I add something to it, and he responds right in front of everybody.

00:31:30.480 He responded to it.

00:31:31.640 Now, why did he respond?

00:31:34.760 There were a whole bunch of other comments.

00:31:37.400 You know, he doesn't have time to respond to all the comments.

00:31:39.860 Why did he respond to me?

00:31:43.420 Simply because I made a good comment, in my opinion.

00:31:46.740 Right?

00:31:47.080 He responds to other people,

00:31:49.180 but only if they make a comment that is worthy of the response.

00:31:54.200 Now, I've said before that, you know, also the large audience.

00:31:58.080 Yeah, I have a large audience.

00:31:58.980 But he responds to a lot of people with small audiences

00:32:01.680 if the thing they said is worth elevating and either agreeing with

00:32:07.020 or elevating for disagreement,

00:32:09.120 because it represents other people's disagreement as well.

00:32:12.160 So the way he interacts with the public

00:32:14.400 is a real confidence builder,

00:32:17.620 because he seems to recognize the important comments

00:32:21.140 and then focus on them.

00:32:23.220 And I don't really see a lot of other people doing that.

00:32:25.620 Others are, I'd say, a little bit more purely political,

00:32:29.120 the way they tweet.

00:32:30.300 He tweets like he's informing people

00:32:32.560 and like he's genuinely interested in their response as well

00:32:37.980 and that he's learning something from it.

00:32:40.400 Like, he's using it as a tool.

00:32:42.720 The others are just using it as, like, a hole in the wall

00:32:45.140 where they're shoving stuff through, hoping you see it.

00:32:47.680 So it's a whole different mindset.

00:32:51.440 And his is the good one.

00:32:53.520 All right.

00:32:56.960 But it's more to my point that I've made before.

00:33:00.460 This is one of the reframes in my book.

00:33:03.260 The person with the best idea is always in charge.

00:33:07.080 It's one of the most important things you'll ever remember in your life.

00:33:10.660 The person with the best idea is always in charge.

00:33:13.380 So this didn't happen in this case.

00:33:16.740 You know, this is not what happened.

00:33:18.180 But if Thomas Massey had tweeted something

00:33:21.900 and if I had added something that was valuable,

00:33:25.620 it could have actually changed the outcome.

00:33:28.840 If it were smart enough.

00:33:30.620 Now, if I said something he had already thought of

00:33:32.740 and everybody was already talking about,

00:33:34.000 well, there's no value there.

00:33:35.840 But if I had come up with a new idea or a new twist

00:33:39.000 or a new way to look at it,

00:33:40.740 it absolutely could have changed things.

00:33:43.820 I didn't.

00:33:44.420 I didn't come up with an idea that changed anything.

00:33:46.900 But I could have.

00:33:48.700 You know, in theory, I could have.

00:33:50.600 I might have added a little value,

00:33:52.200 but that's different than, you know, changing anything.

00:33:57.000 Well, Nate Silver is one of the most interesting people to follow on X.

00:34:01.360 I think he identifies more with the left,

00:34:07.580 as in Democrats, I think.

00:34:10.740 But he's one of these rare characters,

00:34:12.920 sort of a Bill Maher-like character,

00:34:14.740 but with better mental processing,

00:34:17.660 like way better,

00:34:18.960 like really, really way better.

00:34:20.740 So he's a data guy and a statistics guy

00:34:23.700 and a fact guy.

00:34:27.220 Doesn't mean he's always right,

00:34:28.600 and I'm sure he would not claim he's always right.

00:34:31.820 All right.

00:34:32.060 So perfection is not what anybody's shooting for here.

00:34:35.020 But he did something interesting,

00:34:37.700 which is he thought that the smoke had cleared enough

00:34:41.240 that he could finally answer this question.

00:34:44.240 Do not get angry before I'm done.

00:34:48.140 Right?

00:34:49.100 Because I'm going to say some things that you believe

00:34:51.480 I'm agreeing with,

00:34:53.760 but wait.

00:34:54.980 Don't assume I'm agreeing with anything.

00:34:56.700 I'm just reporting.

00:34:58.580 Okay?

00:34:59.820 So what he did was he looked for the data

00:35:03.120 on basically how things worked.

00:35:06.560 You know, were vaccinations a plus or a minus?

00:35:09.740 And same thing with social distancing

00:35:11.800 and business closures and masks.

00:35:14.760 Now, the good news is

00:35:15.860 that somebody who, in my opinion,

00:35:18.840 I don't know if he would say this of himself,

00:35:21.560 but in my opinion,

00:35:22.500 he leans more Democrat.

00:35:24.280 And the first good news is he says

00:35:26.980 the data is very unclear

00:35:29.140 about whether the closures,

00:35:31.300 the masks,

00:35:31.880 and the social distancing

00:35:33.000 had any value at all,

00:35:35.680 and especially contrasted to the fact

00:35:38.980 that there were tremendous costs

00:35:41.880 and disadvantages.

00:35:44.140 So basically,

00:35:45.880 I would say that opinion

00:35:47.020 is straight-up Republican thinking.

00:35:49.940 Would you agree?

00:35:51.440 Straight-up Republican thinking.

00:35:52.920 The data doesn't show

00:35:54.900 that that stuff worked,

00:35:56.680 even if it did.

00:35:58.280 The data doesn't show it.

00:36:00.000 And then beyond that,

00:36:01.920 so you don't do it again

00:36:03.080 if the data doesn't show it.

00:36:05.080 And beyond that,

00:36:06.620 the cost of it is harder to measure,

00:36:09.160 but they were substantial.

00:36:11.860 So under that set of facts,

00:36:14.720 you would never do it again.

00:36:17.320 Would you agree?

00:36:18.060 So he's on the right side

00:36:20.680 because the facts

00:36:22.900 are the facts, right?

00:36:25.340 So again,

00:36:26.460 this is a compliment to,

00:36:28.360 you know,

00:36:28.860 a productive mind in America.

00:36:31.760 He's on the side of the data,

00:36:34.100 plus

00:36:34.660 he knows how to analyze it.

00:36:37.260 And he knows what's left out,

00:36:38.800 and he calls out what's left out,

00:36:40.840 says we don't know,

00:36:43.040 this big stuff is left out,

00:36:44.560 therefore

00:36:44.900 it doesn't make sense

00:36:46.620 to do it again.

00:36:47.780 Good thinking.

00:36:49.700 Now here's the part

00:36:50.660 you won't like as much,

00:36:52.380 and this is not my opinion,

00:36:55.020 and I'm going to tell you

00:36:55.800 what I think is wrong with it

00:36:56.820 when I'm done.

00:36:57.660 So don't get mad at me.

00:36:59.640 You know,

00:37:00.300 no Ben Garrison stuff

00:37:01.840 going on here,

00:37:02.680 please.

00:37:04.180 According to Ney Silver,

00:37:05.400 looking at the data

00:37:06.300 that he trusts,

00:37:08.520 and again,

00:37:09.320 he would be better

00:37:10.060 at knowing what data

00:37:11.020 to trust,

00:37:12.400 right?

00:37:12.660 That's his job.

00:37:14.080 He's way better at that.

00:37:17.160 And he says that

00:37:18.400 the death rate

00:37:19.580 during COVID

00:37:20.340 was about the same

00:37:22.460 in the blue states

00:37:23.460 as the red states.

00:37:25.360 Do you believe that?

00:37:27.740 Death rate

00:37:28.380 was about the same

00:37:29.220 in the blue states

00:37:30.040 and the red states

00:37:30.920 until

00:37:32.500 vaccinations.

00:37:35.500 So prior to vaccinations

00:37:37.080 being available,

00:37:38.440 the death rate

00:37:39.080 was comparable.

00:37:40.040 Do you agree with that

00:37:40.740 so far?

00:37:41.920 And why wouldn't it be?

00:37:43.760 Why wouldn't it be?

00:37:45.060 Right?

00:37:46.440 So that suggests

00:37:47.820 that all of the masking

00:37:48.980 and stuff

00:37:49.440 didn't make a difference

00:37:50.380 because the masking

00:37:51.540 and the social distancing

00:37:52.680 and everything,

00:37:53.600 those were well in place

00:37:55.100 before the vaccinations.

00:37:58.000 So that further

00:37:59.260 supports the fact

00:38:00.200 that, you know,

00:38:01.520 nothing else

00:38:02.280 was mattering.

00:38:03.480 Then the vaccinations

00:38:04.680 happened.

00:38:05.120 And then

00:38:07.400 Nase Silver

00:38:08.160 points out

00:38:08.820 that

00:38:09.220 pretty immediately

00:38:10.860 after the vaccinations,

00:38:12.980 the blue states

00:38:14.220 had a

00:38:15.300 great drop

00:38:16.340 in the death rate

00:38:17.240 from COVID.

00:38:19.620 And the red states

00:38:21.060 did not have

00:38:21.740 as much of a drop

00:38:22.560 and the presumption

00:38:24.000 is that they were

00:38:24.800 less vaccinated

00:38:25.780 because they were.

00:38:28.400 So

00:38:28.860 if this,

00:38:30.380 so I'm going to ask you

00:38:31.160 two questions.

00:38:31.840 If the data

00:38:33.680 were accurate,

00:38:35.060 and by no means

00:38:36.040 do I trust any data,

00:38:37.700 just any data.

00:38:39.740 So assuming

00:38:40.400 it's accurate,

00:38:42.160 I'm not making

00:38:43.340 that assumption.

00:38:44.880 All right.

00:38:45.060 So I don't assume

00:38:46.220 it's accurate,

00:38:47.120 but let's just

00:38:48.280 follow through

00:38:49.220 with the thinking here.

00:38:50.420 All right.

00:38:50.860 So we're not getting

00:38:51.740 an answer,

00:38:52.180 we're just following

00:38:52.740 the thinking.

00:38:54.960 If this were accurate,

00:38:56.500 would it tell you

00:38:57.040 something useful?

00:38:59.580 Would you feel

00:39:00.560 that you would learn

00:39:01.260 something useful

00:39:02.060 by knowing

00:39:03.180 that as soon

00:39:03.820 as the vaccinations

00:39:04.640 hit,

00:39:05.360 there was a big

00:39:06.200 difference

00:39:06.640 in the survivability.

00:39:08.880 The people

00:39:09.400 most vaccinated

00:39:10.380 were the most survived.

00:39:14.940 But the data

00:39:15.820 does factor

00:39:16.460 in lockdowns.

00:39:17.620 The data factors

00:39:18.500 in lockdowns

00:39:19.280 and masks

00:39:19.840 because those

00:39:21.060 were in effect

00:39:21.680 before the vaccinations

00:39:22.820 and they showed

00:39:24.100 no effect.

00:39:25.880 All right.

00:39:26.460 So all of the

00:39:27.300 other factors

00:39:28.340 besides vaccinations

00:39:29.900 have been accounted

00:39:30.960 for.

00:39:32.600 Now, age,

00:39:33.940 presumably you could

00:39:35.180 measure it

00:39:36.260 by age, right?

00:39:38.580 Presumably they know

00:39:39.780 what age groups

00:39:40.880 were the most problematic.

00:39:43.360 And we do know

00:39:44.020 that the red states

00:39:44.940 have older people.

00:39:46.540 The blue states

00:39:47.260 have younger people.

00:39:49.420 So I would not

00:39:52.200 care anything

00:39:53.260 about the COVID

00:39:55.080 death rate

00:39:55.780 by vaccination.

00:39:56.820 I would say

00:40:03.120 that that would

00:40:03.780 not tell me

00:40:04.380 anything.

00:40:05.640 So if the only

00:40:07.080 thing that's studied

00:40:07.880 is people who died

00:40:09.300 according to the

00:40:10.640 hospital of COVID

00:40:12.000 and the only thing

00:40:14.120 you know is whether

00:40:14.860 they were vaccinated

00:40:15.640 or not,

00:40:16.520 even if you did it

00:40:17.480 by age,

00:40:18.560 that would tell you

00:40:20.480 nothing.

00:40:21.300 In my opinion,

00:40:22.780 that would tell you

00:40:23.700 nothing.

00:40:24.440 What's left out?

00:40:25.220 No, even if you

00:40:27.020 did comorbidities,

00:40:28.680 even if you

00:40:29.280 separated by

00:40:29.900 comorbidities,

00:40:31.080 even if you

00:40:31.700 did it by age,

00:40:33.520 would it be

00:40:34.340 useful?

00:40:36.100 Nope.

00:40:37.260 No, not even

00:40:38.060 a little.

00:40:38.460 What's left out?

00:40:39.800 The biggest

00:40:40.420 factor is left

00:40:41.180 out.

00:40:42.420 The biggest

00:40:43.160 factor is,

00:40:44.480 do you die

00:40:45.080 from the

00:40:45.500 vaccination?

00:40:47.720 Because there's

00:40:48.380 no way to

00:40:48.820 sort that out.

00:40:49.480 And you also

00:40:53.560 don't know if

00:40:54.520 any long-term

00:40:55.440 problems are

00:40:56.920 caused by the

00:40:57.560 vaccination or

00:40:58.820 the COVID.

00:41:01.280 So what you

00:41:02.120 don't know is

00:41:03.680 if you checked

00:41:04.340 in 10 years

00:41:05.080 from now,

00:41:05.860 would the red

00:41:06.620 states have

00:41:07.340 regained an

00:41:08.600 advantage compared

00:41:11.580 to the blue

00:41:12.140 states that were

00:41:12.740 more heavily

00:41:13.260 vaccinated?

00:41:14.460 So you don't

00:41:15.200 know that.

00:41:16.380 And that's the

00:41:16.940 whole question.

00:41:17.560 The whole

00:41:18.580 question comes

00:41:19.320 down to,

00:41:21.060 I think we

00:41:22.420 do know that

00:41:23.900 on day one

00:41:24.640 of the

00:41:24.880 vaccination,

00:41:27.040 some people

00:41:29.400 died.

00:41:30.040 But most of

00:41:30.680 the problems

00:41:31.060 were sort of

00:41:31.540 later, whatever

00:41:33.000 problems there

00:41:33.720 were.

00:41:34.800 So if you

00:41:35.600 don't know how

00:41:36.160 many people

00:41:36.640 would eventually

00:41:37.460 die, if any,

00:41:39.040 the number

00:41:39.480 might be zero,

00:41:40.340 I don't know.

00:41:41.120 But if you

00:41:41.740 don't know how

00:41:42.180 many people

00:41:42.580 died because

00:41:43.520 of the

00:41:44.000 vaccination,

00:41:45.220 and you might

00:41:45.740 not know that

00:41:46.320 for years,

00:41:47.560 how do

00:41:48.560 you know

00:41:48.760 anything?

00:41:50.520 How do

00:41:50.780 you know

00:41:51.000 anything?

00:41:54.480 Yeah.

00:41:55.180 So maybe

00:41:56.940 Nate Silver

00:41:57.680 being much

00:41:58.500 smarter than

00:41:59.820 me on this

00:42:01.340 topic, maybe

00:42:02.000 he's taken all

00:42:02.780 that into

00:42:03.180 account in

00:42:03.820 ways that are

00:42:04.340 not obvious

00:42:04.820 to me.

00:42:05.400 But I think

00:42:06.120 that you

00:42:06.480 can't tell

00:42:07.040 anything by

00:42:07.740 measuring the

00:42:09.420 death rate of

00:42:10.500 vaccinated versus

00:42:11.420 unvaccinated

00:42:12.280 during the

00:42:13.400 pandemic.

00:42:14.580 To me, that

00:42:15.500 doesn't tell you

00:42:16.120 what you need

00:42:16.540 to know.

00:42:17.000 Would you

00:42:17.320 agree?

00:42:18.800 Would you

00:42:19.360 agree that

00:42:19.860 we don't

00:42:20.560 have the

00:42:20.920 data we

00:42:21.280 need?

00:42:24.780 Now, suppose

00:42:25.640 you had

00:42:26.180 all-cause

00:42:28.220 mortality,

00:42:30.580 and you

00:42:31.360 also had

00:42:31.960 all-cause mortality,

00:42:34.900 but it was

00:42:35.400 also broken

00:42:35.960 down by

00:42:36.520 comorbidities

00:42:37.480 and age,

00:42:38.460 so you're not

00:42:39.020 worrying about

00:42:39.500 comorbidities

00:42:40.260 and age.

00:42:40.960 If you had

00:42:41.560 all-cause,

00:42:43.220 and you

00:42:43.600 watched it

00:42:44.060 for five

00:42:44.580 years,

00:42:45.940 would you

00:42:46.400 know then

00:42:47.040 if the

00:42:48.620 vaccinated or

00:42:49.340 the unvaccinated

00:42:50.140 did better?

00:42:51.300 Would you

00:42:51.680 know then?

00:42:52.240 Five years

00:42:53.120 of time?

00:42:57.160 No, you

00:42:57.900 wouldn't.

00:42:58.720 You wouldn't.

00:42:59.780 Because you

00:43:00.440 wouldn't know

00:43:00.840 the cause of

00:43:01.900 anybody's health

00:43:02.540 problems.

00:43:04.220 You wouldn't

00:43:04.940 know the

00:43:05.240 cause.

00:43:06.960 You wouldn't

00:43:07.660 know if it's

00:43:08.320 because they

00:43:08.880 got COVID

00:43:09.540 three times

00:43:10.260 or because

00:43:10.760 they got

00:43:11.260 boosted

00:43:12.140 six times.

00:43:13.480 Which of

00:43:14.080 those is

00:43:14.420 the cause?

00:43:15.960 Is it the

00:43:16.520 long COVID

00:43:17.160 that's killing

00:43:17.680 them?

00:43:18.160 Is it the

00:43:18.540 COVID that's

00:43:19.100 killing them?

00:43:20.040 Is it the

00:43:20.820 lack of

00:43:21.460 exercise

00:43:22.040 because they

00:43:22.760 got locked

00:43:23.240 in?

00:43:24.020 Is it because

00:43:24.620 their life

00:43:25.020 changed in

00:43:25.620 a bad way

00:43:26.340 because of

00:43:27.100 the lockdowns?

00:43:28.080 How would

00:43:28.360 you ever

00:43:28.580 know anything?

00:43:30.620 Maybe it

00:43:31.220 was all

00:43:31.440 just ventilators

00:43:32.300 and remdesivir.

00:43:34.100 Could be.

00:43:35.980 So,

00:43:36.740 anyway,

00:43:37.840 I think

00:43:39.080 Nate Silver

00:43:40.320 is a good

00:43:40.780 follow.

00:43:42.040 But you

00:43:42.480 got to be

00:43:42.820 careful about

00:43:43.480 anything with

00:43:44.240 data.

00:43:45.340 If it's

00:43:45.720 about climate

00:43:46.260 change,

00:43:46.780 don't believe

00:43:47.180 it.

00:43:48.380 If it's

00:43:48.760 about COVID,

00:43:50.060 don't believe

00:43:50.600 it.

00:43:51.520 I'll tell

00:43:51.920 you what

00:43:52.200 data is

00:43:52.740 good for.

00:43:55.000 Actually,

00:43:55.800 here's the

00:43:56.200 good news.

00:43:57.100 The fact

00:43:57.580 that the

00:43:57.980 data can't

00:43:58.820 show any

00:43:59.440 difference with

00:44:00.060 masks,

00:44:01.940 that's good

00:44:02.640 news.

00:44:03.240 If you

00:44:03.840 don't want

00:44:04.200 a mask,

00:44:05.080 that's pretty

00:44:05.580 good news.

00:44:09.080 Yeah,

00:44:11.360 the data

00:44:12.100 is too

00:44:12.460 confounded.

00:44:13.260 You're

00:44:13.360 right.

00:44:15.200 Nate Silver

00:44:15.720 predicted

00:44:16.340 Hillary would 0.99

00:44:17.180 win.

00:44:18.560 Well,

00:44:20.080 yes,

00:44:20.580 he did.

00:44:21.340 There was

00:44:21.740 one point

00:44:22.140 he said

00:44:22.460 there was

00:44:22.680 a 98%

00:44:23.460 she would

00:44:24.000 win.

00:44:25.240 And that's

00:44:25.840 when I

00:44:26.280 came up

00:44:26.860 with my

00:44:27.200 estimate that

00:44:27.880 there was

00:44:28.260 a 98%

00:44:29.820 chance that

00:44:30.540 Trump would

00:44:31.020 win.

00:44:32.560 Just to be

00:44:33.320 the opposite

00:44:33.820 of him.

00:44:34.920 And I got

00:44:36.100 that one

00:44:36.440 right.

00:44:36.660 Yeah,

00:44:42.720 the suicide

00:44:43.460 and fentanyl

00:44:44.300 are way

00:44:44.760 up.

00:44:46.980 So if

00:44:48.000 suicide and

00:44:48.980 fentanyl

00:44:49.580 are way

00:44:50.000 up,

00:44:50.680 is that

00:44:51.260 because of

00:44:52.020 the pandemic?

00:44:58.880 Wow.

00:45:00.180 I'm seeing

00:45:00.920 a comment

00:45:01.400 from someone

00:45:02.040 on Locals

00:45:02.620 that seven

00:45:03.340 people close

00:45:04.600 to this one

00:45:05.300 person committed

00:45:06.040 suicide during

00:45:06.920 the pandemic.

00:45:09.340 Wow.

00:45:13.360 It's

00:45:13.800 pretty bad.

00:45:15.720 All right.

00:45:17.160 I don't

00:45:17.800 think,

00:45:18.340 I don't

00:45:18.680 know anybody

00:45:19.140 who died

00:45:19.560 of COVID.

00:45:22.280 So my

00:45:23.120 track record

00:45:24.440 was zero

00:45:25.740 people I

00:45:26.380 know died

00:45:26.820 of COVID.

00:45:30.420 But most

00:45:31.080 of you do.

00:45:31.900 Yeah,

00:45:32.080 most of you

00:45:32.540 know people

00:45:32.960 who died

00:45:33.240 of COVID.

00:45:33.720 I don't

00:45:33.900 know anybody.

00:45:36.040 Not a single

00:45:36.980 one.

00:45:37.640 So I went

00:45:38.460 through a

00:45:39.180 pandemic

00:45:39.660 without seeing

00:45:41.160 a single

00:45:41.580 death of

00:45:42.160 anybody I

00:45:42.640 know.

00:45:43.380 And also

00:45:44.040 nobody,

00:45:44.600 nobody my

00:45:46.460 age or

00:45:47.020 younger who

00:45:48.140 was a

00:45:48.480 celebrity died

00:45:49.160 from COVID.

00:45:51.940 Prove me

00:45:52.620 wrong.

00:45:53.600 There's no

00:45:54.100 celebrity,

00:45:55.000 and I'm going

00:45:55.640 to define

00:45:56.260 celebrity as

00:45:57.040 someone I've

00:45:57.500 personally heard

00:45:58.180 of.

00:45:58.980 You know,

00:45:59.200 it can't be

00:45:59.540 some country

00:46:00.160 music star who

00:46:01.000 was 85.

00:46:01.460 But there

00:46:02.480 was nobody

00:46:02.940 who was my

00:46:03.680 age or

00:46:04.040 younger who

00:46:05.480 was also a

00:46:06.320 public figure

00:46:07.140 who died

00:46:08.440 of COVID.

00:46:10.700 Right?

00:46:11.440 Yeah,

00:46:11.760 John Prine I

00:46:12.500 never heard

00:46:12.860 of.

00:46:13.540 So he's

00:46:14.760 my,

00:46:15.400 that's my

00:46:15.860 argument.

00:46:16.980 Yeah,

00:46:17.540 you're giving

00:46:18.140 me names I've

00:46:18.780 never heard

00:46:19.100 of.

00:46:19.320 Hank Aaron

00:46:19.760 was older.

00:46:22.040 Yeah,

00:46:22.680 they were all

00:46:23.360 older than

00:46:23.800 me,

00:46:23.960 right?

00:46:27.080 I'm pretty

00:46:27.740 sure they're

00:46:28.140 all older.

00:46:28.620 So nobody

00:46:30.600 my age or

00:46:31.200 younger who

00:46:31.780 was famous

00:46:32.480 ever died

00:46:33.880 during the

00:46:34.620 pandemic.

00:46:37.440 Herman Cain

00:46:38.220 was older.

00:46:39.160 Yeah,

00:46:39.340 all these

00:46:39.660 people were

00:46:40.100 older.

00:46:41.200 They were

00:46:41.400 all in

00:46:41.580 their 70s

00:46:42.220 were older.

00:46:45.360 So,

00:46:46.540 all right,

00:46:47.360 Colin Powell,

00:46:48.280 older.

00:46:54.420 Meatloaf

00:46:54.940 was 74.

00:46:56.720 Prine had

00:46:57.320 cancer first.

00:46:58.620 All right,

00:47:04.920 I'm going to

00:47:05.220 make a

00:47:05.740 prediction about

00:47:06.780 Rob Reiner.

00:47:10.340 I feel like

00:47:11.280 there's some

00:47:11.900 scandal in

00:47:13.740 his future.

00:47:15.920 I don't know

00:47:16.680 what it is.

00:47:18.360 But I feel

00:47:19.120 like,

00:47:19.500 I feel like

00:47:20.600 he's been in

00:47:21.120 the news

00:47:21.560 too much

00:47:22.280 for there

00:47:24.520 not to be

00:47:25.120 something

00:47:25.620 there.

00:47:25.980 and here's

00:47:28.540 why.

00:47:30.660 He tweets

00:47:31.640 like somebody

00:47:32.360 who's under

00:47:32.920 duress.

00:47:36.900 That's it.

00:47:38.520 He tweets

00:47:39.380 like somebody

00:47:39.960 who's under

00:47:40.460 duress.

00:47:42.460 Now,

00:47:42.860 let me compare

00:47:44.100 that.

00:47:44.860 You saw,

00:47:46.180 or maybe you

00:47:46.880 saw,

00:47:47.400 John Cusack,

00:47:48.960 who's a giant

00:47:49.880 anti-Trupper,

00:47:51.200 you know,

00:47:51.420 to the point

00:47:51.940 where you

00:47:52.200 think he's

00:47:52.560 crazy.

00:47:54.340 But he

00:47:54.800 recently,

00:47:55.560 I believe he

00:47:56.240 came out

00:47:56.740 against Biden's

00:47:58.040 track record.

00:47:59.240 Am I right on

00:47:59.860 that?

00:48:00.080 Give me a fact

00:48:00.580 check.

00:48:01.240 I think he

00:48:01.820 came out

00:48:02.240 against Biden's

00:48:03.060 track record,

00:48:03.860 which demonstrates

00:48:05.000 what?

00:48:05.360 it demonstrates

00:48:07.420 that his

00:48:08.340 mind is

00:48:08.900 fluid,

00:48:10.280 and that

00:48:10.740 while you

00:48:11.220 might disagree

00:48:12.000 wildly with

00:48:13.280 his opinions,

00:48:14.360 you can see

00:48:15.140 that he's

00:48:15.580 assessing data

00:48:16.360 and changing

00:48:17.000 with the

00:48:18.280 data.

00:48:18.920 A little

00:48:19.240 bit.

00:48:19.740 You'd like

00:48:20.160 to see

00:48:20.460 more,

00:48:20.780 I know.

00:48:21.500 But that's

00:48:22.180 a sign

00:48:22.540 of a healthy

00:48:24.100 mind that

00:48:24.700 might be

00:48:25.220 biased in

00:48:26.140 some way.

00:48:27.740 But Rob

00:48:28.500 Reiner tweets

00:48:30.000 like it's

00:48:30.820 his paycheck.

00:48:32.960 You know

00:48:33.220 what I mean?

00:48:34.180 He tweets

00:48:34.660 like he's

00:48:35.060 getting paid

00:48:35.520 to tweet.

00:48:36.500 I'm not

00:48:36.860 saying he

00:48:37.260 is.

00:48:38.100 I'm saying

00:48:38.680 that the

00:48:39.220 impression

00:48:40.600 one gets

00:48:41.400 is that

00:48:42.280 there's no

00:48:42.660 thought process

00:48:43.460 involved

00:48:43.880 whatsoever.

00:48:45.960 And that,

00:48:48.160 I mean,

00:48:49.000 I don't think

00:48:49.840 he's doing it

00:48:50.360 for the money.

00:48:52.220 Probably not.

00:48:53.760 But it looks

00:48:54.580 like he's

00:48:54.940 under duress.

00:48:56.340 Same with

00:48:57.000 Stephen King.

00:48:59.160 Stephen King

00:48:59.920 doesn't look

00:49:00.500 even like those

00:49:01.220 could be his

00:49:01.760 real opinions.

00:49:03.080 It looks like

00:49:03.700 he's under

00:49:04.120 duress.

00:49:05.500 Now,

00:49:06.280 that's just

00:49:07.140 speculation.

00:49:08.860 So speculation

00:49:09.840 is not based

00:49:10.800 on any facts.

00:49:12.580 I'm just

00:49:13.020 looking at him

00:49:13.640 and saying,

00:49:15.080 John Cusack

00:49:15.880 looks like

00:49:16.380 somebody who's

00:49:17.140 involved in

00:49:17.760 politics and

00:49:18.420 I disagree

00:49:18.940 with him.

00:49:20.640 Rob Reiner

00:49:21.420 looks like

00:49:21.920 somebody who's

00:49:22.500 doing it for

00:49:22.980 a paycheck

00:49:23.600 because it

00:49:24.500 doesn't look

00:49:25.040 like a

00:49:25.620 thinking human

00:49:26.320 being at

00:49:26.980 all.

00:49:27.240 all right.

00:49:35.060 We didn't

00:49:35.760 know

00:49:35.940 anything

00:49:36.260 four months

00:49:36.820 in.

00:49:43.080 Katie

00:49:43.600 Hobbs

00:49:44.060 avoiding

00:49:44.420 Biden.

00:49:45.260 I'm just

00:49:46.000 not interested

00:49:46.600 in Katie

00:49:47.040 Hobbs.

00:49:47.440 somebody's

00:49:53.140 saying that

00:49:53.660 Stephen King's

00:49:55.260 tweets are

00:49:56.160 poorly written.

00:49:58.500 But I hear

00:49:59.240 that about his

00:49:59.800 books as well.

00:50:00.500 I've never

00:50:03.520 heard a more

00:50:04.180 famous author

00:50:05.160 who the

00:50:06.760 people who

00:50:07.380 enjoy his

00:50:08.080 books say

00:50:08.580 he's a bad

00:50:09.140 writer.

00:50:10.200 He's the

00:50:10.700 only one I've

00:50:11.160 ever heard that

00:50:11.620 about.

00:50:12.340 Yeah, I read

00:50:12.900 all his books.

00:50:13.480 He's a terrible

00:50:14.020 writer.

00:50:14.360 But let me

00:50:18.220 give a plug

00:50:19.040 for him

00:50:19.340 though.

00:50:20.740 Stephen King's

00:50:21.660 book called

00:50:22.940 On Writing,

00:50:24.600 it's one of the

00:50:25.460 books he wrote,

00:50:26.300 I'm maybe the

00:50:26.720 only one,

00:50:27.460 on how to be

00:50:28.160 a writer.

00:50:29.440 That's a really

00:50:30.180 good book.

00:50:31.620 And it's one of

00:50:32.320 the ones I

00:50:33.360 recommend to

00:50:33.960 people if they

00:50:35.060 want to be a

00:50:35.540 writer.

00:50:36.740 Full of

00:50:37.480 totally practical

00:50:38.900 advice on

00:50:40.240 becoming a

00:50:40.760 writer.

00:50:42.780 I'll tell you

00:50:43.500 the main

00:50:43.860 secret.

00:50:44.360 In case anybody

00:50:45.040 wants to become

00:50:45.660 a writer.

00:50:46.840 Some of the

00:50:47.360 things I

00:50:47.700 remembered are

00:50:48.320 take a job

00:50:49.980 that's super

00:50:50.900 boring if you

00:50:52.380 want to be a

00:50:52.860 writer.

00:50:53.840 Because you're

00:50:54.480 going to need

00:50:54.820 your best

00:50:55.400 thinking for

00:50:56.240 your writing if

00:50:57.080 you're going to

00:50:57.420 go anywhere.

00:50:58.360 And if you're

00:50:58.880 using up your

00:50:59.540 brain all day

00:51:00.520 you're just not

00:51:01.140 going to have

00:51:01.400 enough left

00:51:02.380 in the tank.

00:51:03.700 So he says

00:51:04.600 if you're really

00:51:05.160 serious about it

00:51:05.840 be something like

00:51:06.940 a night time

00:51:08.080 security guard

00:51:08.920 where you're

00:51:10.240 literally just

00:51:10.800 standing around.

00:51:12.200 And then you'll

00:51:12.620 have plenty of

00:51:13.260 mental capacity

00:51:14.520 left.

00:51:15.480 That was an

00:51:16.180 interesting tip.

00:51:18.180 The other one

00:51:18.980 is even more

00:51:19.560 useful.

00:51:20.340 I mean this one

00:51:20.700 is totally

00:51:21.100 practical.

00:51:22.320 That if you

00:51:22.780 want to become

00:51:23.240 a writer you

00:51:24.520 just start at

00:51:25.680 whatever is the

00:51:26.480 lowest level that

00:51:28.240 somebody will

00:51:28.820 accept your

00:51:29.420 writing.

00:51:30.700 And you can

00:51:31.200 always do it.

00:51:32.860 So there's

00:51:33.540 always some

00:51:33.960 local publication

00:51:35.120 that wants to

00:51:35.920 pay nothing.

00:51:37.380 So you say

00:51:37.840 well I wrote

00:51:38.380 this thing

00:51:39.540 it's my

00:51:39.920 article about

00:51:40.600 the benefit

00:51:41.780 of salt.

00:51:43.740 There's somebody

00:51:44.420 I know who

00:51:44.960 was trying to

00:51:45.420 become a

00:51:45.780 writer and

00:51:46.560 actually wrote

00:51:47.080 an article on

00:51:47.860 salt and got

00:51:49.660 it published

00:51:50.080 locally.

00:51:51.320 Now if you

00:51:52.100 can get

00:51:52.400 published locally

00:51:53.240 in things that

00:51:54.560 pay nothing

00:51:55.140 then you can

00:51:57.940 eventually collect

00:51:58.880 up your works

00:51:59.760 and take it to

00:52:01.280 a slightly better

00:52:02.220 publication and

00:52:03.800 say okay I did

00:52:05.040 all this work

00:52:05.680 you can see my

00:52:06.360 work.

00:52:07.260 Then you can

00:52:07.760 prove that you

00:52:08.320 can write.

00:52:09.800 You can do it

00:52:10.580 and produce

00:52:11.760 volume.

00:52:13.160 And then the

00:52:13.580 new thing will

00:52:14.120 say oh yeah

00:52:14.740 it looks like

00:52:15.200 we're getting a

00:52:15.660 good deal here.

00:52:16.540 We'll get you

00:52:17.160 early.

00:52:18.400 So it's very

00:52:19.160 easy to start

00:52:20.000 writing for

00:52:20.520 nothing and

00:52:21.680 then use what

00:52:22.320 you've written

00:52:22.740 if you're a

00:52:23.260 good writer to

00:52:24.640 ratchet up and

00:52:26.280 you keep showing

00:52:27.260 it to the

00:52:27.820 level above.

00:52:29.780 So that's

00:52:30.200 consistent with

00:52:31.180 my other

00:52:31.640 reframe that

00:52:32.960 your job is

00:52:33.620 not your job.

00:52:34.780 Your job is to

00:52:35.480 get a better

00:52:35.880 job.

00:52:37.100 So all the

00:52:37.660 writing you're

00:52:38.260 doing is to

00:52:39.720 show it to the

00:52:40.500 level above.

00:52:41.920 That's good

00:52:42.320 advice because

00:52:43.340 you can always

00:52:43.840 find the level

00:52:44.500 that wants you

00:52:45.080 to write for

00:52:45.460 them for free.

00:52:46.860 It might be a

00:52:47.520 website, it

00:52:48.160 might be a

00:52:48.500 blog, maybe

00:52:49.900 start your own

00:52:50.560 sub stack or

00:52:52.160 something.

00:52:53.420 But you write

00:52:54.380 for free until

00:52:55.340 you have samples

00:52:56.040 to show somebody

00:52:57.680 who might be

00:52:58.160 interested in

00:52:58.640 paying you.

00:52:59.740 Good advice.

00:53:00.360 all right.

00:53:03.820 Yeah, salt

00:53:04.560 had a big

00:53:05.080 impact on our

00:53:06.380 species, that's

00:53:07.120 true.

00:53:11.380 All right,

00:53:12.800 sub stack, it's

00:53:13.760 like a blog

00:53:15.100 with a paywall.

00:53:16.000 I have not

00:53:19.500 seen the

00:53:20.200 live stream in

00:53:23.640 Philadelphia.

00:53:25.740 So the

00:53:26.660 live stream is

00:53:27.860 the intention

00:53:29.700 is to show how

00:53:30.520 bad it is in the

00:53:31.260 street.

00:53:31.740 Is that what it

00:53:32.440 is?

00:53:32.680 I feel like

00:53:35.760 I feel like

00:53:37.740 that's the

00:53:38.520 only answer.

00:53:41.820 The only

00:53:42.760 answer is

00:53:43.480 surveillance of

00:53:44.620 the streets so

00:53:45.620 everybody could

00:53:46.360 watch.

00:53:47.880 Have you seen

00:53:48.600 the new drones

00:53:49.800 that the police

00:53:50.820 are getting?

00:53:52.220 So it looks

00:53:53.020 like the police

00:53:54.220 will have drones

00:53:55.180 that if, let's

00:53:56.440 say, there's

00:53:56.960 a year

00:53:59.600 shots fired.

00:54:00.640 So I think

00:54:02.580 the police in

00:54:03.200 the big cities

00:54:03.700 already have

00:54:04.220 these monitors

00:54:04.920 where they can

00:54:06.080 identify where

00:54:06.860 shots have been

00:54:07.460 fired.

00:54:08.520 Give me a

00:54:08.900 fact check on

00:54:09.460 that.

00:54:09.620 That's a real

00:54:10.020 thing, right?

00:54:11.500 I don't know

00:54:12.220 if it's all the

00:54:13.040 cities, but most

00:54:13.960 of the big cities

00:54:14.700 they can literally

00:54:16.040 listen to the

00:54:16.920 shot and

00:54:18.200 triangulate

00:54:18.960 approximately where

00:54:19.900 it came from

00:54:20.460 so they can

00:54:21.180 dispatch a car.

00:54:23.140 Now, they

00:54:23.960 could also

00:54:24.580 dispatch a

00:54:26.080 drone, but

00:54:27.280 the drone could

00:54:27.920 be a lot faster

00:54:28.640 because it

00:54:29.100 doesn't have

00:54:29.460 traffic.

00:54:30.640 So you

00:54:31.280 could get a

00:54:31.720 drone sitting

00:54:32.420 over a crime

00:54:33.660 pretty quickly.

00:54:36.380 It seems to

00:54:37.260 me that if you

00:54:37.920 had a process

00:54:38.640 where somebody

00:54:39.260 could take a

00:54:39.840 picture with

00:54:40.400 their phone and

00:54:42.180 send it to the

00:54:43.440 police, it

00:54:45.080 would activate a

00:54:45.820 drone.

00:54:46.800 Because wouldn't

00:54:47.240 you like to

00:54:47.660 see, let's

00:54:48.260 say, a 911

00:54:48.900 dispatcher, but

00:54:50.220 maybe a separate

00:54:51.020 one, that is

00:54:52.360 just looking at

00:54:53.120 photos coming

00:54:53.900 in like a

00:54:56.280 text?

00:54:57.380 Like there's a

00:54:58.500 robbery going on

00:54:59.580 right here.

00:55:00.660 And then the

00:55:01.180 911 person

00:55:02.060 sees it, takes

00:55:03.620 the address, and

00:55:04.880 simply pushes one

00:55:05.900 button with the

00:55:06.600 address, and a

00:55:07.420 drone goes up and

00:55:08.260 goes to that

00:55:08.760 address and

00:55:09.740 hovers above it

00:55:10.660 until police get

00:55:11.700 there.

00:55:12.640 Now, you could

00:55:13.260 also imagine

00:55:13.960 these drones will 0.82

00:55:15.880 be armed at some

00:55:16.860 point.

00:55:18.140 Am I right?

00:55:20.360 Those drones will 0.95

00:55:21.880 eventually be able to

00:55:23.400 shoot a real

00:55:23.920 bullet or a

00:55:25.280 tranquilizer dart or

00:55:26.500 something.

00:55:26.760 So at some

00:55:28.260 point the drones

00:55:28.980 are going to

00:55:29.300 have AI on them

00:55:30.480 and they're just

00:55:31.220 going to show up

00:55:31.800 and start shooting

00:55:32.400 people.

00:55:34.400 Maybe not right

00:55:35.320 away, but

00:55:35.860 RoboCop is

00:55:37.320 coming.

00:55:38.240 There's no way to

00:55:38.900 stop it, I don't

00:55:39.500 think.

00:55:43.460 Yeah, I was

00:55:44.460 also thinking that

00:55:46.540 a great design for

00:55:47.560 my house would be

00:55:49.260 a rooftop drone

00:55:51.960 landing site that I

00:55:54.720 also had access to

00:55:55.720 easy, easily.

00:55:58.240 And that any time

00:55:59.340 there's any kind of

00:56:00.380 security cameras get

00:56:01.540 tripped, it

00:56:02.900 automatically launches

00:56:03.920 the drone and it

00:56:05.760 goes to where that

00:56:06.400 camera is and turns

00:56:08.400 on the camera.

00:56:10.640 That would be cool.

00:56:12.100 Because I don't think

00:56:12.820 people will fuck with

00:56:13.620 you if your drone

00:56:14.960 catches them outside

00:56:15.780 your house.

00:56:17.000 Am I right?

00:56:18.180 If you're like, I

00:56:19.280 think I could break

00:56:19.960 into this house, and

00:56:21.080 then you hear,

00:56:21.940 yep, and right behind

00:56:25.500 you there's a drone

00:56:26.420 looking at you, and

00:56:27.560 you know they're

00:56:28.120 filming, you're going

00:56:29.700 to get the fuck out

00:56:30.420 of there like right

00:56:31.220 away, right?

00:56:32.620 You're not going to

00:56:33.300 try to shoot down the

00:56:34.260 drone.

00:56:35.560 I mean, you might

00:56:36.080 try, but it's going

00:56:37.840 to be kind of hard to

00:56:39.060 hit it.

00:56:39.620 And it's already

00:56:40.100 taken the pictures.

00:56:41.600 By the time you see

00:56:42.640 it, it saw you, so it

00:56:44.440 knows who you are.

00:56:45.080 So, the only thing I

00:56:50.120 would add to the

00:56:50.880 drones is something

00:56:53.760 that could shoot like

00:56:54.920 a dart into them that

00:56:56.940 would collect a

00:56:57.680 specimen.

00:57:00.320 If you want to be a

00:57:02.160 super asshole, have 0.98

00:57:04.100 like a little blow

00:57:06.280 dart, and if it comes

00:57:08.580 down, it just goes,

00:57:10.080 you go, ah!

00:57:11.600 And the first thing

00:57:12.880 you'd do is like you'd

00:57:13.700 pull it out, and you'd

00:57:15.320 throw it down and run.

00:57:18.180 Right?

00:57:19.220 You would pull it out,

00:57:20.460 and you would throw it

00:57:21.260 down and run, and it

00:57:22.500 would have your DNA in

00:57:23.500 it.

00:57:24.220 And then you just

00:57:25.220 collect it, because it's

00:57:26.900 right where you got

00:57:27.900 hit.

00:57:28.560 Because nobody's going

00:57:29.340 to take it and put it

00:57:30.180 in their pocket.

00:57:31.400 Are they?

00:57:32.760 And if they do, just

00:57:33.720 shoot them again.

00:57:34.460 They'll stop putting

00:57:35.340 them in their pocket

00:57:36.020 eventually.

00:57:37.240 Or maybe it just

00:57:39.560 takes your DNA and

00:57:40.540 falls off on its own.

00:57:41.660 Oh, better.

00:57:42.740 Better.

00:57:43.320 Better is it hits you

00:57:44.500 and it just falls on

00:57:45.300 the ground.

00:57:46.660 So it penetrates you,

00:57:48.740 gets a little pinprick

00:57:49.820 of your DNA, but it's

00:57:51.760 not designed to stay

00:57:52.840 into you.

00:57:54.300 So it's only got like a

00:57:55.480 little pinprick.

00:57:56.560 So it's just like, ah!

00:57:57.900 Ow! 1.00

00:57:58.600 And you think you got

00:57:59.440 a stun.

00:58:01.280 And then later you go

00:58:02.360 out and they're like,

00:58:02.760 ah, I got your DNA.

00:58:03.560 Okay.

00:58:03.720 Not bad, is it?

00:58:07.660 Not bad.

00:58:09.220 It's not bad.

00:58:11.580 All right.

00:58:13.980 The other thing you

00:58:15.000 could do if you wanted

00:58:15.840 to collect their DNA

00:58:16.720 is you could just

00:58:18.880 drop like a

00:58:22.220 Bud Light.

00:58:23.980 They'd be like, ooh,

00:58:25.080 Bud Light.

00:58:27.700 That could work as

00:58:28.740 well.

00:58:30.280 Yeah, Bud Light.

00:58:32.320 It's a callback.

00:58:33.300 It works in every

00:58:34.680 joke.

00:58:35.980 All right.

00:58:36.360 Is there any topic

00:58:37.220 I forgot?

00:58:39.360 We did talk about

00:58:40.800 Mike Cernovich's

00:58:41.960 tweets lately.

00:58:44.120 He might not be

00:58:45.100 wrong, but he's

00:58:47.320 also signaling a

00:58:49.180 warning so that

00:58:50.200 people remember to

00:58:52.220 vote.

00:58:58.420 Coleman Hughes

00:58:59.400 dissed Scott

00:59:00.280 yesterday as

00:59:01.220 paranoid of the

00:59:02.220 CIA.

00:59:03.300 Well, does he

00:59:04.720 know?

00:59:06.580 Do you think he

00:59:07.780 knows what the

00:59:08.400 CIA is and is

00:59:09.480 not doing?

00:59:10.740 If you're not

00:59:11.460 paranoid of the

00:59:13.680 CIA, I don't

00:59:14.620 think you've been

00:59:15.160 paying attention.

00:59:17.260 I would agree with

00:59:18.380 him that I have

00:59:20.280 no way of knowing

00:59:21.040 what the CIA is and

00:59:22.940 is not doing.

00:59:23.620 So I think I'm

00:59:26.900 usually careful to

00:59:27.940 say, like, I

00:59:29.240 don't know what

00:59:30.400 anybody's doing.

00:59:31.900 But if you

00:59:32.660 suspect them,

00:59:34.640 that seems quite

00:59:35.480 reasonable.

00:59:36.440 And if you

00:59:37.160 believe they

00:59:37.860 should not be

00:59:38.620 suspected, given

00:59:40.340 everything that we're

00:59:41.480 seeing, I would

00:59:42.820 say that would be

00:59:43.380 naive.

00:59:45.180 But I didn't hear

00:59:46.000 what he said, so I

00:59:47.020 can't respond to it

00:59:48.440 specifically.

00:59:48.940 Um, yeah.

01:00:00.260 Ian says, keep

01:00:01.380 him out of your

01:00:01.920 tweets.

01:00:02.360 I don't know what

01:00:02.720 you're talking

01:00:03.060 about.

01:00:03.340 reframed for a

01:00:10.620 great day.

01:00:11.240 All right.

01:00:17.580 Um, I don't

01:00:18.520 see any

01:00:18.900 buffering.

01:00:23.540 Do we need the

01:00:24.440 CIA?

01:00:25.560 Probably.

01:00:30.700 Khalid says, we

01:00:31.680 love you, Scott, but

01:00:32.660 please tone

01:00:33.300 down on the

01:00:34.000 praise of Elon

01:00:34.880 and X.

01:00:36.040 Why?

01:00:39.020 Why?

01:00:40.900 Why would you

01:00:41.620 ask such a

01:00:42.700 thing?

01:00:46.340 I think he's

01:00:47.220 basically the

01:00:47.960 most useful

01:00:48.480 person in the

01:00:49.120 world right now.

01:00:50.180 So what's the

01:00:51.200 problem with

01:00:51.700 him?

01:00:55.660 Yeah, I'm

01:00:56.220 never going to

01:00:56.520 hear from you

01:00:56.920 again, am I?

01:00:58.320 I think you're

01:00:59.060 done.

01:01:02.360 Weariness of

01:01:03.260 billionaires, of

01:01:04.220 course.

01:01:04.580 Yeah.

01:01:20.900 Combines, what?

01:01:23.060 I'm just looking at

01:01:23.960 your comments for a

01:01:24.800 minute.

01:01:24.960 Oh, Jordan, I

01:01:29.860 should talk to

01:01:30.400 Jordan Harbinger.

01:01:32.180 Oh, he would be

01:01:32.680 the perfect one to

01:01:33.440 talk to.

01:01:36.900 I think that I

01:01:38.500 should.

01:01:40.300 I did send a DM to

01:01:41.720 Glenn Lowry.

01:01:43.360 I hope he, uh, he

01:01:46.540 didn't create that.

01:01:47.920 He exposed it.

01:01:48.960 I don't know what

01:01:49.360 you're talking about.

01:01:49.920 I missed Khalid's

01:01:55.580 response.

01:01:58.580 Did I?

01:02:00.600 Let's go back.

01:02:02.120 Khalid, Khalid.

01:02:07.240 Uh, it's so hard to

01:02:09.460 find a response.

01:02:10.380 Let me just see if I

01:02:18.060 can find it.

01:02:20.420 I can't find it.

01:02:23.940 Khalid, Khalid, where

01:02:25.060 are you?

01:02:28.420 Wow, there's a lot

01:02:29.220 of people talking.

01:02:30.020 I didn't realize.

01:02:35.500 I don't believe I'm

01:02:36.600 going to find it.

01:02:38.800 All right.

01:02:40.520 Well, I tried.

01:02:41.320 I don't think it's

01:02:44.920 there.

01:02:47.500 Suno says he will

01:02:48.520 be killed. 0.89

01:02:50.820 Khalid, the backdoor 0.90

01:02:51.860 portal for government.

01:02:54.080 What, you think I

01:02:54.840 don't know that?

01:02:56.680 I don't think that, uh,

01:02:58.480 Elon Musk is

01:03:00.740 sanctioning that, but

01:03:02.080 I wouldn't surprise,

01:03:02.880 be surprised if it's

01:03:04.080 happening.

01:03:04.380 said, uh, please

01:03:17.380 don't put a tone

01:03:18.460 down your phrase.

01:03:19.520 All right.

01:03:20.180 Well, I'm not going

01:03:21.240 to do that.

01:03:25.540 That's the kind of,

01:03:26.580 uh, comment that just

01:03:27.920 pisses me off. 0.72

01:03:30.120 It's one thing to tell

01:03:31.340 me facts you think I

01:03:32.660 don't know or arguments

01:03:33.860 you think I missed.

01:03:35.420 But when you say tone

01:03:36.940 down your praise of

01:03:39.020 somebody without any

01:03:41.120 backup support, that's

01:03:43.060 just manipulative.

01:03:45.740 It is not, it is not

01:03:46.600 received well.

01:03:49.740 But, uh, will more

01:03:52.660 Swedish girls hang their 1.00

01:03:54.100 assaulters?

01:03:54.760 That sounds like a

01:03:55.560 story I missed.

01:04:03.860 Uh, only available on

01:04:05.320 Amazon.

01:04:05.860 No, it's at, uh, Barnes

01:04:07.140 and Noble as well.

01:04:08.920 And some other places.

01:04:14.160 Uh, oh, Prager talked

01:04:15.600 to RFK Jr.

01:04:19.000 All right.

01:04:19.600 Well, here's what I

01:04:20.960 think I'll, I'd like to

01:04:22.260 do.

01:04:23.260 I'd like to, uh, interview

01:04:25.120 RFK Jr.

01:04:25.980 and I'm going to teach

01:04:31.080 him how to speak

01:04:31.940 correctly because I

01:04:35.600 have a non-zero, there's

01:04:37.400 a non-zero chance that

01:04:39.980 with the, uh, procedure

01:04:41.320 he already had for his

01:04:42.480 voice that all he needs

01:04:45.120 is, uh, a tweak to his

01:04:47.020 production technique.

01:04:48.220 In other words, just use a

01:04:50.120 different part of his face

01:04:51.420 voice to speak because he

01:04:53.860 looks like he's breathing

01:04:56.020 and producing voice in

01:04:57.700 the wrong part of his

01:04:58.500 body, which would

01:05:00.300 accentuate the problem.

01:05:02.220 I don't know that to be

01:05:03.140 true, but it looks like

01:05:04.060 it.

01:05:04.580 So there's a non-zero

01:05:05.700 chance that I could fix

01:05:08.040 his voice while you

01:05:09.360 watched in less than a

01:05:12.380 minute.

01:05:14.780 And that would probably

01:05:17.300 make him president and

01:05:19.520 change the course of

01:05:20.760 civilization.

01:05:21.420 But I can't guarantee

01:05:25.360 it.

01:05:26.040 I would say the odds

01:05:26.940 would be in the 20%

01:05:28.420 range that I could

01:05:30.060 actually do that.

01:05:38.220 It would be the most

01:05:39.280 viral thing you ever saw

01:05:40.560 in your life.

01:05:41.980 Just try to hold this in

01:05:43.200 your mind.

01:05:45.200 Imagine me fixing his

01:05:46.500 voice in real time.

01:05:49.320 That video would get

01:05:50.640 around, wouldn't it?

01:05:51.420 And I think there's a

01:05:54.400 non-zero chance.

01:05:55.640 I did, I did a long

01:05:56.900 time ago, I DM'd him

01:05:58.060 some instructions on

01:06:01.160 different voice

01:06:01.880 production.

01:06:03.060 And it's the way I, it's

01:06:04.120 the way I talk.

01:06:05.020 It's a big reason that I

01:06:06.440 haven't had a recurrence

01:06:07.340 of my problem, is that

01:06:08.800 you learn to talk up in

01:06:09.960 the mask of your face.

01:06:12.980 And you don't use your

01:06:14.060 vocal cords to do that.

01:06:15.740 Right now it sounds like

01:06:16.880 his vocal cords are 80%

01:06:18.520 fixed, but he still talks

01:06:19.940 with him.

01:06:21.660 If you bring your voice

01:06:22.880 production up to what's

01:06:23.860 called the mask of the

01:06:24.780 face, so you feel your

01:06:27.100 sinus and your nose

01:06:29.180 vibrating, instead of

01:06:31.480 talking down here in the,

01:06:33.220 right now I'm talking in my

01:06:34.580 throat.

01:06:35.200 Can you tell the

01:06:35.820 difference?

01:06:36.700 I'm talking in my throat,

01:06:38.240 and if I were a little bit

01:06:39.620 tired, it would sound

01:06:41.080 constricted.

01:06:42.420 And you've heard me do it.

01:06:43.680 When I get tired, my voice

01:06:45.620 production goes down into

01:06:46.660 my throat, and then you

01:06:48.200 feel a little that coming

01:06:51.640 on, a little weakness,

01:06:53.060 right?

01:06:53.360 You hear it.

01:06:54.560 But as soon as I bring it

01:06:57.580 up to the mask of my face,

01:07:00.000 my voice is not only good,

01:07:01.800 it's almost perfect.

01:07:03.240 And the only difference is

01:07:04.440 I'm changing the production

01:07:05.740 up to the front of my face,

01:07:07.680 so I can feel that vibrating,

01:07:09.540 and I know the voice is

01:07:10.720 coming out of here, and I

01:07:12.000 feel almost no effect on my

01:07:14.140 vocal cords.

01:07:15.060 They're involved, but the

01:07:16.840 production has moved up.

01:07:20.040 So that's the little trick.

01:07:22.040 And that's what voice coaches

01:07:23.820 teach you.

01:07:25.200 And that's what the humming

01:07:26.720 happy birthday is.

01:07:28.880 Humming happy birthday is how

01:07:30.440 you teach yourself to use the

01:07:32.440 mask of your face.

01:07:35.140 So if you say,

01:07:36.760 mm-hmm, mm-hmm, mm-hmm,

01:07:39.380 mm-hmm, you can actually

01:07:40.680 feel your lips vibrating.

01:07:42.380 Mm-hmm, mm-hmm.

01:07:43.360 And then you feel around

01:07:44.480 your nose vibrating.

01:07:46.040 Mm-hmm, mm-hmm, mm-hmm.

01:07:47.380 And now you have your

01:07:49.200 production perfect, and your

01:07:51.020 voice comes out right where

01:07:53.180 the hum was, and that's how

01:07:55.140 you find it.

01:08:00.020 Joe Blow is asking if I'm

01:08:02.040 bi.

01:08:04.400 Joe Blow.

01:08:06.600 That's actually his name,

01:08:07.840 Joe Blow.

01:08:09.060 Just ask me if I'm bi.

01:08:13.120 If I said yes, Joe Blow,

01:08:16.120 what would be your next

01:08:17.540 offer?

01:08:20.640 I don't know.

01:08:25.540 All right.

01:08:28.440 You don't think you could do

01:08:29.860 that on camera?

01:08:30.740 It's so easy that you could.

01:08:32.720 You actually could do it on

01:08:33.880 camera in like a minute.

01:08:34.740 All right, that's all for now.

01:08:37.040 I'll talk to you later,

01:08:39.260 YouTube.

01:08:39.480 Thank you.

01:08:48.160 You.

01:08:49.220 You.

01:08:49.960 You.

01:08:50.300 You.

01:08:50.680 You.

01:08:55.160 You.

01:08:55.900 You.

01:08:56.680 You.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - September 30, 2023

Episode 2247 Scott Adams： All The Fake News (And Maybe Some Real Stuff) That Is Fit To Sip

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