Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2248 Scott Adams： All Of The News Is Confusing And Fake But The Coffee Is Delicious

00:00:00.000 Do-do-do-do-do-do, ra-ba-ba-ba. 1.00

00:00:04.820 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to Coffee with Scott Adams.

00:00:10.040 It's the best thing you could ever do on a Sunday.

00:00:12.780 All right, maybe church is okay, too, but if you're not in church,

00:00:17.360 this is the best thing you could possibly do.

00:00:19.720 And if you'd like to take this experience up to godlike levels,

00:00:23.240 all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a chalice or a stein,

00:00:26.820 a canteen jug or a flask or a vessel of any kind.

00:00:29.060 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:00:31.720 I like coffee.

00:00:33.220 Join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine.

00:00:36.200 At the end of the day, the thing that makes everything better.

00:00:38.080 It's called the simultaneous sip, and it happens now.

00:00:47.060 Ah, wow.

00:00:49.820 It is the height of civilization.

00:00:52.440 Yeah.

00:00:54.060 So let's talk about all the stuff.

00:00:59.060 So engineers at MIT and in China figured out how to turn seawater into drinking water

00:01:06.920 with a completely passive device.

00:01:10.080 That's right.

00:01:12.000 It's being done with a passive device.

00:01:14.600 And what that means is that when you tell the device, hey, could you turn this seawater into drinking water?

00:01:22.820 It gives you no feedback whatsoever.

00:01:24.920 It doesn't say, oh, I'm busy, or why don't you do it yourself?

00:01:28.880 No, it's a passive device.

00:01:30.880 It'll be like, all right, I'll turn some seawater into drinking water for you.

00:01:36.320 Totally passive.

00:01:37.060 I think that's what it means.

00:01:39.880 No, actually, what it means is instead of forcing the water through a filter, which is the normal way you desalinate,

00:01:46.900 which takes a tremendous amount of energy,

00:01:50.240 and also takes, it's a problem because there's a bunch of salt that's going to goop up your filters,

00:01:58.160 and you have to clean it out and stuff like that.

00:02:00.000 But these MIT and China, researchers, engineers, actually,

00:02:06.860 figured out how to create a system where it's primarily, not primarily, it's only evaporation.

00:02:13.100 So they figured out a way to evaporate the water out, so you've got drinking water,

00:02:18.540 and that leaves the salt, and they can pass the salt back into the ocean,

00:02:22.480 and then the ocean gets too full of salt, right?

00:02:26.080 Well, I wouldn't worry about the ocean filling up with salt because you desalinated some of it.

00:02:37.900 Because, I don't know, this might be a big, this might be something you don't know.

00:02:43.700 But were you aware that the ocean already evaporates?

00:02:48.100 I mean, not all of it, but every single day, there's like a lot of evaporation happening.

00:02:53.780 It turns into clouds, yeah.

00:02:56.080 So if you evaporate a little extra and turn it into drinking water instead of a cloud

00:03:03.000 that then turns into water that then you drink, I feel like the oceans will survive that.

00:03:08.900 Yeah, I feel like that.

00:03:11.640 And by the way, that water that you put into your body, you don't think that gets back to the ocean?

00:03:17.120 It does.

00:03:18.380 It gets back there.

00:03:19.220 So we're not going to turn the ocean into brine.

00:03:24.040 All right, so that's a positive.

00:03:25.520 All of our water problems are solved.

00:03:28.380 You know what the big deal about that is?

00:03:30.140 We're very close.

00:03:32.040 Correct me if I'm wrong.

00:03:33.040 But if you can cheaply make your own fresh water and you can cheaply make your own electricity

00:03:40.620 and you could probably come up with a toilet system like the Bill Gates toilets that don't need a sewer system. 0.99

00:03:50.900 Somehow they, I don't know, they do their own thing somehow.

00:03:53.960 And could you not build floating cities now?

00:03:59.240 What would stop you from living on the ocean forever?

00:04:03.720 Pirates.

00:04:04.620 Pirates would stop you, that's what.

00:04:06.580 Yeah, there would be a pirate problem.

00:04:08.360 But what if you had like an old city and you just floated around to wherever the weather is nicest?

00:04:13.580 And if you see a storm forming, you just turn on your engines and like,

00:04:17.580 get out of here. 0.93

00:04:18.900 Let's get out of here for two weeks until the storm is over.

00:04:21.120 I feel like that's where it's heading.

00:04:24.100 We're all heading that way.

00:04:26.020 Well, what about this story of the representative, Democrat representative, Jamal Bowman,

00:04:32.940 who was trying to delay a vote on a continuing resolution

00:04:39.020 and was caught on camera pulling the fire alarm.

00:04:45.900 He pulled the fire alarm.

00:04:48.440 Now, I know what you're thinking.

00:04:49.440 You're thinking, he pulled the fire alarm to interfere with the operation of government.

00:04:57.060 And that would be the same crime as the January Sixers, at least some of them, 0.84

00:05:02.640 were accused of, which is delaying a, or trying to stop a government process.

00:05:08.440 It's illegal, it turns out.

00:05:10.500 But if you dig down a little bit more, you find out that was not his intention.

00:05:16.880 Now, even though it looked like that was his intention, and he's on film doing it,

00:05:23.780 he explained later, and you have to hear the whole story before you even know what's going on.

00:05:28.040 It turns out he thought that pulling the fire alarm would open the door.

00:05:32.680 So he confused the doorknob with the fire alarm, which was on the wall, the separate wall.

00:05:42.040 And that can happen.

00:05:43.080 That can happen.

00:05:44.500 It's not the first time he's confused ordinary things.

00:05:47.780 There was a time he got caught using a lectern as a urinal.

00:05:51.640 Again, not his fault.

00:05:54.800 He thought the lectern was a urinal.

00:05:58.180 And therefore, you know, quite normal and expected.

00:06:02.660 There are a number of other items that he's misused.

00:06:07.600 But I didn't have time to write those jokes.

00:06:10.620 So you're going to have to do those in your head.

00:06:12.540 If you could complete the rest of the jokes, there should be three of them.

00:06:17.440 These jokes work best in threes.

00:06:20.740 So I did the first one for you.

00:06:22.580 And he thought the lectern was a urinal.

00:06:24.700 You need two more.

00:06:26.260 Do these in your head.

00:06:28.300 All right, let's see if I can help you out.

00:06:32.760 All right, I can't think of any more.

00:06:35.060 But you do some.

00:06:35.960 You do some at home.

00:06:37.400 You'll love it.

00:06:38.060 So is he an insurrectionist because he was trying to delay a government process?

00:06:45.560 I don't know.

00:06:46.720 So I tried to follow along all of the budget shenanigans because there's a lot of complexity.

00:06:55.480 So I'm going to do what nobody's done for you.

00:06:58.220 I'm going to summarize it in a way that you can understand all the ins and outs of the congressional rules

00:07:05.220 and, you know, what they have to do with the budget and continuing resolutions.

00:07:09.820 And you've got your 12 separate bills and you've got your speaker and, you know, you've got all these things.

00:07:16.040 So if I could summarize all that, blah, blah, blah, Congress can't do their jobs.

00:07:24.720 That's the story.

00:07:26.120 Whatever you think is the dumbest, most fucked up thing that could come out of this group, that's what they do.

00:07:31.040 It's pretty easy to determine.

00:07:34.800 Hey, why don't you do something smart like look at all the budget items separately and vote on them separately like you were supposed to, like it's your job.

00:07:44.180 Oh, no, we won't be doing that.

00:07:46.320 We'll be doing something different than that.

00:07:50.140 And what does Congress itself think about that?

00:07:53.020 Well, I believe I have a quote here from somebody I didn't write down.

00:08:00.020 Nancy Mace was mocking her own congressional members for being basically completely unable to do their jobs.

00:08:11.000 So something happened in Congress, and I think no matter what it was, can anybody give me a fact check on this?

00:08:21.100 See if this accurately summarizes it.

00:08:26.120 Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, billions of dollars for Ukraine.

00:08:31.660 Did I get that right?

00:08:33.740 Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, things that don't matter.

00:08:38.400 Blah, blah, blah, things we don't understand.

00:08:41.200 Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, rules.

00:08:43.120 Blah, blah, blah, resolutions.

00:08:45.520 Blah, blah, blah, billions of dollars for Ukraine.

00:08:49.420 That's all you need to know.

00:08:51.100 Boom. That's your news.

00:08:54.800 If the news were not boring, maybe people would watch it a little bit more often, huh?

00:08:58.940 Yeah, try that.

00:09:01.600 Well, I tried a trick question today that a number of people found a way to

00:09:07.500 Kobayashi Maru out of it.

00:09:11.340 Here's a question I asked on a poll on X platform.

00:09:16.700 I said, if you could stop Hitler by rigging an election, 0.96

00:09:21.100 would you do it?

00:09:22.880 Seems like a simple question.

00:09:25.100 If you could stop Hitler by rigging an election, would you do it? 0.94

00:09:31.260 Now, do you see the trap?

00:09:34.080 It's a trap.

00:09:35.460 Because the Democrats have been calling Trump Hitler forever,

00:09:39.740 but they also say that they did not rig the election.

00:09:43.480 Well, you have to pick one.

00:09:44.440 If he's Hitler, you rig the election. 0.90

00:09:47.320 Because everybody would, right?

00:09:49.360 Am I right?

00:09:49.920 Nobody's going to answer this question,

00:09:52.220 oh, no, we would let Hitler just do his thing, right? 0.96

00:09:55.560 Oh, you are so wrong.

00:09:58.000 Knowing that the question would reveal their absurdity,

00:10:02.840 they decided to go with Hitler.

00:10:06.700 Two-thirds of the people who answered went with,

00:10:09.880 I would not rig the election.

00:10:11.640 I would let Hitler come to power. 1.00

00:10:12.940 That's how badly they don't want to show that they're wrong.

00:10:17.980 They would actually rather have Hitler come to power 0.97

00:10:21.440 than to reveal the absurdity of their own reasoning.

00:10:27.300 An actual preference.

00:10:29.560 Yeah.

00:10:30.020 About two-thirds said no.

00:10:31.860 Nope.

00:10:32.260 Would not rig an election to stop Hitler. 0.83

00:10:34.020 And do you know what reasons they gave?

00:10:39.480 Kobayashi Maru.

00:10:41.680 Now, if you don't know that reference,

00:10:43.260 you are not enough of a nerd.

00:10:45.380 It's an old Star Trek reference.

00:10:47.720 When Captain Kirk, when he was in the,

00:10:51.140 what was it, the training to be a starship person?

00:10:55.620 So when he was in training,

00:10:57.920 they all got a test in which there was a simulation

00:11:01.680 of a simulated battle among starships.

00:11:05.040 And the simulation was rigged

00:11:07.520 so that you couldn't win no matter what.

00:11:10.860 And the real lesson was you can't always win

00:11:13.680 or something like that.

00:11:15.120 So it was sort of what do you do when you can't win?

00:11:17.980 That was the lesson.

00:11:19.920 So, but one person did win, Captain Kirk.

00:11:23.060 He's the only person who beat the simulation ever.

00:11:25.180 But how do you beat a simulation that's rigged?

00:11:27.980 He rigged it.

00:11:29.260 He rigged the rigged simulation

00:11:30.740 so he had to reprogram so he could win.

00:11:34.040 Now, what did the people say

00:11:36.720 who did not want to answer the question

00:11:38.220 if they would stop Hitler? 0.91

00:11:40.040 Well, we wouldn't know he was Hitler then. 0.87

00:11:45.060 No, the question says you're going to stop Hitler. 0.60

00:11:47.840 It's very much obviously implied,

00:11:51.280 obviously implied,

00:11:52.520 that you know if you don't stop him,

00:11:55.180 he becomes the real Hitler. 0.81

00:11:57.420 All right, that's built into the question.

00:11:59.480 You can't Kobayashi Marumi and say,

00:12:01.420 well, the way I interpret your question.

00:12:04.380 No, you don't get to reinterpret the question.

00:12:07.720 He's Hitler. 0.95

00:12:08.740 You know he's Hitler. 0.93

00:12:09.660 He's born Hitler. 0.99

00:12:10.600 That's baked into the assumption of the question.

00:12:13.840 Two-thirds of the people refused to answer it

00:12:16.160 and said that they would not rig the election.

00:12:18.740 When do you know they would?

00:12:19.720 Of course they would, because everybody would.

00:12:23.360 100% of all people would rig an election to stop Hitler.

00:12:27.620 Except, you know, actual Nazis, I suppose.

00:12:31.940 So that's how broken we are.

00:12:35.560 I just got two-thirds of my respondents to support Hitler

00:12:40.100 so that they didn't have to support Trump.

00:12:43.740 In the real world, in the actual real world,

00:12:49.660 two-thirds of the people supported Hitler over Trump.

00:12:54.300 Because that's how brainwashed they had become.

00:12:56.720 Imagine the level of brainwashing

00:12:59.980 that would make you actually believe

00:13:03.860 that not stopping Hitler might be a good play 0.98

00:13:08.300 or that there's some reason you could come up with

00:13:10.740 for not doing it.

00:13:12.640 What would it take to brainwash people that thoroughly?

00:13:19.960 Well, I certainly found out that there's a reason

00:13:24.200 that Democrats do not want free speech in this country,

00:13:27.440 but do you think they've ever done anything about it,

00:13:30.840 you know, to actually try to stop free speech?

00:13:34.200 Yeah.

00:13:35.060 Turns out that there's a whole department in the government

00:13:37.500 that dedicates to stopping free speech.

00:13:40.760 Did you know that?

00:13:42.780 It's actually, it's a department.

00:13:45.940 CISA, or CISA.

00:13:47.560 C-I-S-A. 1.00

00:13:49.340 The director had been Chris Krebs,

00:13:51.360 who you might recognize as a high-level Democrat operative.

00:13:56.640 That's right.

00:13:57.580 So the organization that monitors

00:13:59.680 and tries to control your free speech,

00:14:03.200 run by Democrats.

00:14:05.340 And let's see,

00:14:07.740 the current director is Jen Easterly,

00:14:10.600 and she expanded the agency's job 0.96

00:14:14.560 because it used to be more about

00:14:16.640 catching the bad guys,

00:14:18.820 homeland security sort of thing,

00:14:20.160 finding out what the bad guys are thinking

00:14:22.240 and maybe change the minds of the bad guys.

00:14:26.840 And then they turned it on Americans 0.67

00:14:28.660 and decided they would use it

00:14:30.240 to change the minds of Americans

00:14:31.800 because according to Easterly,

00:14:33.740 the director of this group,

00:14:37.660 apparently this is an actual quote.

00:14:40.160 According to Easterly,

00:14:41.120 Americans, quote,

00:14:42.640 cognitive infrastructure

00:14:44.140 is the most critical infrastructure

00:14:46.960 the state must protect.

00:14:48.840 cognitive infrastructure.

00:14:52.080 What's that?

00:14:53.460 What is your cognitive infrastructure?

00:14:56.520 It's actually your brain,

00:14:58.360 like actually the physical brain in your head.

00:15:00.780 That's your cognitive infrastructure.

00:15:03.900 And here's the head of this group

00:15:05.540 saying directly

00:15:06.300 that they have to control

00:15:08.400 your brain

00:15:09.780 for national defense.

00:15:12.440 Now, is that true?

00:15:13.240 It was true, yeah.

00:15:15.280 That's why we do

00:15:16.200 the Pledge of Allegiance,

00:15:18.200 you know,

00:15:18.600 put your hand over your heart.

00:15:19.860 It's a brainwashing operation

00:15:21.460 to make the country stronger

00:15:23.560 by making the citizens

00:15:25.520 more committed to the whole.

00:15:28.220 So I don't disagree 0.98

00:15:29.820 with the concept,

00:15:32.400 but if you take it beyond

00:15:33.820 I love my country

00:15:34.960 all the way to

00:15:36.900 those things you're saying

00:15:37.980 on the internet

00:15:38.560 that are true or not true,

00:15:40.440 which is where it is.

00:15:41.680 They're actually telling you

00:15:43.440 the things they know

00:15:44.340 to be true.

00:15:45.960 They're making sure

00:15:47.200 that you can't say them.

00:15:48.220 They're working with the platforms

00:15:49.420 to make sure

00:15:51.200 you can't say true things

00:15:52.620 if it's bad for the country

00:15:54.860 in their opinion.

00:15:56.720 So if it's bad for the country

00:15:58.340 in the opinion of Democrats,

00:16:00.420 there's a department

00:16:01.800 of the government

00:16:02.400 to make sure

00:16:03.000 that you don't see it

00:16:03.800 or can't say it.

00:16:05.540 Just think about that.

00:16:06.960 That's a real thing.

00:16:08.560 There's no exaggeration.

00:16:10.140 It's a department

00:16:11.720 of the government.

00:16:12.580 That's a real thing.

00:16:14.400 It is their stated mission

00:16:15.640 to control the brains

00:16:16.920 of Americans.

00:16:18.740 That's a quote.

00:16:19.840 It's directly right here.

00:16:21.140 It's their stated mission

00:16:22.120 to control the brains

00:16:23.800 of Americans.

00:16:25.780 And they allow TikTok.

00:16:28.880 They allow TikTok.

00:16:31.100 They're not serious people.

00:16:33.720 Certainly they're not

00:16:34.680 trying to protect you.

00:16:35.960 They're trying to control you

00:16:38.040 for whatever reasons.

00:16:39.820 Not your own benefit,

00:16:40.900 apparently.

00:16:43.620 So to know that there's

00:16:45.180 actually a formed group

00:16:47.840 whose name puts an S

00:16:50.800 in the letters CIA.

00:16:52.960 So it's C-I-S-A. 0.97

00:16:56.500 It's got...

00:16:57.060 You can't even spell it

00:16:57.960 without C-I-A. 0.97

00:17:00.820 That's a little on the nose.

00:17:02.340 All right.

00:17:04.680 And it's...

00:17:05.900 According to federal lawmakers,

00:17:07.560 the C-I-S-A is the nerve center 1.00

00:17:09.960 of federal government censorship.

00:17:13.440 So how good is the government

00:17:16.200 brainwashing operation? 0.96

00:17:18.600 It's good enough

00:17:19.920 that half of the country

00:17:22.180 thinks that Trump

00:17:23.320 is worse than Hitler. 0.90

00:17:25.420 And they would support Hitler 0.95

00:17:26.740 before they would support Trump.

00:17:28.140 Is that good enough?

00:17:31.440 Do you need another example?

00:17:33.480 Or does that pretty much

00:17:34.480 make the point?

00:17:36.620 I think that should make the point.

00:17:39.920 All right.

00:17:40.720 So that's a real thing.

00:17:42.560 Now, once again,

00:17:43.540 the world has reached the point

00:17:45.380 where we cannot tell

00:17:46.400 parity from reality.

00:17:49.200 And here's an example

00:17:50.360 that involves me.

00:17:51.880 And I can't tell

00:17:52.820 if this is parity.

00:17:54.640 I can't tell if I'm being mocked

00:17:56.520 or complimented.

00:17:58.780 So I'm going to ask

00:17:59.540 for your opinion.

00:18:01.000 You tell me

00:18:01.720 if I'm being mocked

00:18:03.160 or complimented.

00:18:04.460 Now, an important part of this

00:18:05.740 is to know

00:18:06.300 who's the speaker.

00:18:08.280 So the speaker

00:18:09.260 in this little story,

00:18:10.480 which threw a post on X,

00:18:13.300 is Paul Graham.

00:18:16.020 Now,

00:18:16.940 if you watch

00:18:18.340 the tech world at all,

00:18:20.340 you know Paul Graham,

00:18:21.360 one of the most famous

00:18:22.560 entrepreneur,

00:18:24.440 investor-type people

00:18:26.160 in the world.

00:18:28.140 and generally

00:18:30.900 one of the smartest people

00:18:32.180 in the game.

00:18:33.160 So he's super smart,

00:18:35.520 super successful.

00:18:38.320 Yeah, he's sort of like

00:18:39.700 the father of startups.

00:18:41.580 Yeah, somebody said that

00:18:42.660 in the comments.

00:18:43.680 He would be like

00:18:44.880 the intellectual,

00:18:47.380 I don't know,

00:18:48.260 sort of the,

00:18:48.820 almost like a founding father

00:18:50.300 of Silicon Valley startups

00:18:52.260 in a sense

00:18:52.880 because he was so smart

00:18:54.120 and successful at it.

00:18:56.140 Anyway,

00:18:56.980 so he's somebody

00:18:57.680 who's smart and successful.

00:18:59.020 You should also know

00:19:00.100 that he and I

00:19:01.560 have agreed sometimes

00:19:02.720 and disagreed sometimes

00:19:03.920 on X.

00:19:06.500 So he's now somebody

00:19:07.580 who automatically

00:19:08.160 agrees with me,

00:19:09.640 but he's also

00:19:10.620 a smart,

00:19:12.620 you know,

00:19:13.140 high-functioning person

00:19:14.240 who doesn't always

00:19:16.200 disagree with me.

00:19:17.980 So I don't know

00:19:18.560 if he agrees

00:19:19.080 or disagrees more often,

00:19:20.740 but he could be

00:19:21.560 on either side.

00:19:22.660 All right,

00:19:22.840 so you've got

00:19:23.220 a credible person,

00:19:25.180 very smart,

00:19:26.880 and not necessarily,

00:19:28.360 you know,

00:19:29.440 primed to agree

00:19:30.500 or disagree with me,

00:19:31.480 but rather probably

00:19:32.440 just looks at the information.

00:19:34.460 So he retweeted

00:19:35.560 two of my older tweets today,

00:19:38.720 and the two of them

00:19:39.560 were paired,

00:19:40.760 and they were,

00:19:41.620 and his only comment was,

00:19:43.580 note the date.

00:19:45.760 All right,

00:19:46.000 so the only clue we have

00:19:47.840 is who he is

00:19:48.720 and how we've interacted before,

00:19:52.620 and the one sentence,

00:19:55.320 note the date.

00:19:56.840 So the date was July 2020,

00:20:00.140 and it was my two tweets,

00:20:02.920 one of which said,

00:20:04.700 if Joe Biden gets elected,

00:20:06.520 so this is a few months

00:20:08.120 before the election itself,

00:20:09.760 I said,

00:20:10.160 if he gets elected,

00:20:11.640 there's a good chance

00:20:13.000 he'll be dead in a year.

00:20:15.440 That was one.

00:20:16.300 And the other one was,

00:20:18.160 if Joe Biden is elected,

00:20:21.100 Republicans will be hunted,

00:20:23.160 also about the same date.

00:20:25.800 Now,

00:20:26.820 when he tweeted those

00:20:28.900 and said,

00:20:29.380 note the date,

00:20:30.940 he was clearly making sure

00:20:32.320 that you knew

00:20:33.080 it wasn't today,

00:20:33.840 but was he saying

00:20:35.580 this was a good prediction

00:20:39.660 or was he mocking it

00:20:41.820 because half of the country

00:20:43.740 would say that's absurd,

00:20:45.500 nothing like that's happening,

00:20:46.980 or is he in the half of the country

00:20:48.720 that says it's obviously happening

00:20:50.340 and here's somebody

00:20:51.660 who predicted it?

00:20:53.320 Which is it?

00:20:56.320 I got mocked,

00:20:57.580 good prediction,

00:20:58.800 mocked,

00:21:00.500 don't know,

00:21:01.160 you can't tell,

00:21:05.420 can you?

00:21:06.820 Isn't that the funny thing

00:21:07.920 about it?

00:21:08.340 You actually,

00:21:08.840 I can't tell.

00:21:09.900 I actually don't know.

00:21:14.000 Or is he saying activate?

00:21:17.080 Yeah.

00:21:18.940 All right,

00:21:19.460 well,

00:21:19.980 but you can see that

00:21:21.160 people are all over the map here,

00:21:22.800 right?

00:21:23.040 I think there are more people

00:21:24.140 saying good prediction,

00:21:25.240 but you might be,

00:21:26.620 that might be wishful thinking,

00:21:27.900 I'm not sure.

00:21:30.540 Oh.

00:21:31.680 Well,

00:21:32.440 I think it's a good prediction.

00:21:35.040 We don't know what Paul thought,

00:21:37.160 but we know he's very smart,

00:21:39.080 so I'm going to,

00:21:39.520 I'm going to go with,

00:21:40.560 he's smart,

00:21:41.400 so he thinks it's a good prediction.

00:21:44.540 Can I live with that reality

00:21:46.740 until it's proven not true?

00:21:52.340 How many of you

00:21:53.480 have ever heard

00:21:55.100 an old hoax about me

00:21:56.680 that,

00:21:58.140 like most hoaxes,

00:21:58.940 is based on a real event?

00:22:00.280 So there's a real event,

00:22:02.460 but of course,

00:22:03.580 context is left out.

00:22:05.060 How many of you know

00:22:05.760 about the metaverse

00:22:06.980 so-called sock puppet event

00:22:10.700 that was my first big scandal?

00:22:13.900 How many of you

00:22:15.000 have ever heard of that?

00:22:18.940 No?

00:22:20.420 Interesting.

00:22:21.200 It used to be that

00:22:22.000 no matter where I commented online,

00:22:24.100 somebody would post a link

00:22:26.060 to that scandal.

00:22:26.760 So let me tell you

00:22:28.680 what people think it was,

00:22:30.860 and then I'll tell you

00:22:31.520 what it was.

00:22:32.840 Do you know what a sock puppet is?

00:22:35.040 A sock puppet is somebody

00:22:36.500 who pretends to be someone else

00:22:38.120 to build up

00:22:41.480 or sell a product,

00:22:43.640 you know,

00:22:43.880 to help a brand.

00:22:46.180 So if you went online

00:22:47.480 and pretended to be somebody else

00:22:48.960 to compliment a product,

00:22:52.680 you know,

00:22:52.980 and people thought

00:22:53.940 you were a real person,

00:22:54.820 not a sock puppet,

00:22:55.920 that would be bad behavior.

00:22:58.520 And if somebody saw you do that,

00:23:00.060 they would have

00:23:00.520 a very bad opinion of you.

00:23:01.940 All right.

00:23:02.680 Now,

00:23:03.440 let me tell you what happened,

00:23:05.700 and then I'll tell you,

00:23:06.500 you know,

00:23:07.020 how the hoax

00:23:08.080 played out.

00:23:10.280 Here's what really happened.

00:23:11.280 There was a point

00:23:12.860 at which I was being accused

00:23:14.820 of being a

00:23:16.660 Holocaust denier

00:23:19.120 and a bunch of other things,

00:23:21.680 but I think that was the one

00:23:22.720 I was concerned with that day.

00:23:24.780 And so online,

00:23:26.120 there was this spreading rumor

00:23:27.620 that I was a Holocaust denier.

00:23:30.460 And one of the places

00:23:31.360 it was in particular

00:23:32.340 is this horrible site

00:23:33.840 called Metaverse

00:23:36.300 or something.

00:23:38.000 Meta something.

00:23:39.340 It was just Meta,

00:23:40.060 I forget.

00:23:40.740 Metafilter?

00:23:41.840 Metafilter.

00:23:42.420 It was called Metafilter.

00:23:43.760 I think it's gone now.

00:23:45.520 But,

00:23:45.800 so,

00:23:47.740 I had this big problem,

00:23:49.600 a reputational problem.

00:23:52.120 And I was not really

00:23:53.920 super well known then.

00:23:55.340 You know,

00:23:55.460 the comic was taking off,

00:23:56.820 but nationally,

00:23:58.340 most people would not

00:23:59.300 have recognized my name.

00:24:01.340 And so I said to myself,

00:24:02.480 what do you do about it?

00:24:03.400 What would you do about it?

00:24:04.560 Suppose there was

00:24:05.320 a whole big rumor

00:24:07.280 that you were,

00:24:09.100 did something terrible.

00:24:10.120 How would you deal with it?

00:24:12.920 What would be your mechanism?

00:24:14.300 You could do a press release,

00:24:16.360 but nobody would pay attention to it,

00:24:18.240 right?

00:24:19.140 The people online

00:24:19.960 aren't going to see it

00:24:20.720 because it's not going to be

00:24:21.880 in the news.

00:24:23.320 If you put out a press release,

00:24:24.760 who's even going to see it?

00:24:26.620 Or,

00:24:27.100 you could simply go online

00:24:29.060 and argue that it's not true.

00:24:31.860 You could show links.

00:24:32.800 Now,

00:24:34.120 what would happen to me

00:24:35.200 if I joined an online conversation

00:24:37.660 and just tried to clear things up?

00:24:40.900 What do you think would happen?

00:24:42.820 Take a guess.

00:24:45.220 It would make it worse.

00:24:47.560 It would turn into,

00:24:48.600 from a rumor,

00:24:49.600 it would turn into

00:24:50.180 a headline story.

00:24:52.380 You know,

00:24:52.560 Adams insists

00:24:53.480 he's not a Holocaust denier.

00:24:55.500 Just makes it worse,

00:24:56.640 right?

00:24:57.700 So how do you kill a rumor

00:24:59.160 without being involved,

00:25:01.820 since you're the one

00:25:02.600 in the rumor,

00:25:03.980 and being involved

00:25:04.700 would just make it much worse?

00:25:07.260 So I'll tell you

00:25:08.080 what I decided to do,

00:25:09.440 which I still think is funny,

00:25:13.120 but it didn't work out well for me.

00:25:16.540 So what I decided to do

00:25:17.760 was to enter the conversation

00:25:19.600 under a different name

00:25:20.920 and see if I could get the people

00:25:23.760 to have a conversation

00:25:25.140 that I thought would be hilarious

00:25:27.100 and also clear up the rumor

00:25:31.040 at the same time.

00:25:33.200 And so,

00:25:33.920 under the guise

00:25:35.080 of a practical joke,

00:25:37.160 which I had planned

00:25:38.340 to reveal at the end,

00:25:40.120 like I was going to spend

00:25:40.940 a whole bunch of time

00:25:41.700 as a person

00:25:43.220 in a conversation about me,

00:25:45.860 and then at the end

00:25:46.680 it would make a funny blog post,

00:25:48.260 right?

00:25:48.620 Let's say what I said

00:25:49.680 and how they were talking to me.

00:25:51.840 Now,

00:25:52.140 to me,

00:25:52.900 it would be hilarious

00:25:54.260 to be in an extended conversation

00:25:56.620 with strangers

00:25:57.520 about me.

00:25:59.980 Am I the only one

00:26:00.920 who thinks that would be funny?

00:26:04.760 That would be funny, right?

00:26:06.980 And you'd do it.

00:26:07.920 If you could be

00:26:08.780 in an extended conversation

00:26:10.200 in an assumed name

00:26:11.940 about yourself,

00:26:14.160 are you telling me

00:26:15.120 you wouldn't want to do that?

00:26:16.300 That was seriously fun.

00:26:18.960 So I'm having

00:26:20.200 this conversation

00:26:20.960 about myself

00:26:21.740 and people would

00:26:23.120 make claims

00:26:24.160 that I knew

00:26:24.580 not to be true.

00:26:26.200 So I'd say,

00:26:26.840 well, you know,

00:26:27.520 that's not actually

00:26:28.460 something he's ever said.

00:26:30.200 That sort of thing.

00:26:31.900 And then at one point

00:26:33.000 somebody came in

00:26:34.040 and said,

00:26:35.060 well,

00:26:36.320 you know,

00:26:36.620 Adams is an idiot.

00:26:38.560 He's just stupid.

00:26:40.980 Here's where things

00:26:41.940 went off the rails.

00:26:42.800 In the identity

00:26:47.300 of my fake little identity,

00:26:50.800 I thought it would be

00:26:51.980 hilarious to point out

00:26:53.240 that objectively speaking,

00:26:55.900 the person that they'd

00:26:56.900 called an idiot

00:26:57.560 had been a member

00:26:58.800 of Mensa

00:26:59.700 and had a genius level IQ.

00:27:02.760 Now keep in mind,

00:27:03.640 I'm in a persona.

00:27:05.400 So I'm sort of like

00:27:06.600 Andrew Tating a little bit.

00:27:08.280 I'm just sort of

00:27:08.880 playing the persona.

00:27:10.260 And I'm saying,

00:27:10.760 well, you know,

00:27:11.240 you'd have to explain

00:27:12.180 why this group

00:27:14.740 that determines

00:27:15.480 whether or not

00:27:16.060 you're qualified

00:27:16.640 to be a genius,

00:27:18.000 why have they

00:27:18.560 certified him a genius

00:27:19.800 when your argument

00:27:21.300 is that he's dumb? 0.73

00:27:24.300 Well, soon after that,

00:27:26.380 it turns out

00:27:27.840 that there were

00:27:28.420 some insiders

00:27:29.340 in this Metafilter

00:27:30.440 who had decided

00:27:33.000 that my identity

00:27:34.640 would be outed

00:27:35.700 because they had

00:27:36.160 a rule against

00:27:36.880 sock puppeting,

00:27:37.860 I guess.

00:27:39.640 Now what I was doing

00:27:40.860 was trying to

00:27:42.120 kill a rumor

00:27:42.860 and also create

00:27:45.020 some content

00:27:45.660 that would make

00:27:46.300 a fun blog post.

00:27:47.820 But the Metafilter

00:27:49.380 people threatened me

00:27:50.480 and they said,

00:27:51.400 we have found out

00:27:52.040 that this is

00:27:52.820 not really you

00:27:53.760 and we're going

00:27:54.700 to out you

00:27:55.400 unless you

00:27:56.660 out yourself.

00:27:58.680 So still thinking

00:27:59.780 it's no big deal

00:28:00.800 and still thinking

00:28:01.620 it's just funny,

00:28:03.020 I thought,

00:28:03.580 oh, I'll out myself

00:28:04.800 because I was good anyway.

00:28:06.540 So I out myself,

00:28:08.340 you know,

00:28:08.480 say, ah,

00:28:09.160 it was me.

00:28:09.700 And I think

00:28:11.040 this is really funny.

00:28:12.460 Well, all those people

00:28:13.260 who were in a conversation

00:28:14.180 with me,

00:28:15.740 about me,

00:28:17.280 don't you think

00:28:17.840 they would think

00:28:18.240 that was funny?

00:28:19.980 Wouldn't that make

00:28:20.640 a good story?

00:28:22.420 Right?

00:28:22.640 Doesn't everybody win?

00:28:25.420 Isn't everybody

00:28:26.500 involved a winner?

00:28:28.320 So you had the people

00:28:30.180 who ran Metafilter,

00:28:31.680 they were winners

00:28:33.100 because they identified

00:28:34.140 somebody who was

00:28:34.840 in the wrong identity

00:28:35.680 and cleared it up.

00:28:37.520 Good job.

00:28:38.720 Good job.

00:28:39.720 The people who were sleuths

00:28:41.840 and, like,

00:28:42.280 figured it out first,

00:28:44.400 good job.

00:28:45.560 That's some good sleuthing.

00:28:46.900 They caught me.

00:28:47.840 I think they should

00:28:48.460 be complimented.

00:28:49.220 That was pretty smart.

00:28:50.860 And then there was,

00:28:51.860 did I clear up,

00:28:52.880 did I clear up the rumor?

00:28:54.920 A little bit,

00:28:55.940 yeah.

00:28:56.380 Because then there was

00:28:57.080 a body of work

00:28:58.040 that was, you know,

00:28:59.040 the other way

00:28:59.700 that didn't look like

00:29:01.060 it came from me,

00:29:01.760 at least at first.

00:29:03.480 So I cleared up

00:29:04.720 the rumor a little bit,

00:29:05.880 you know,

00:29:06.020 got a little counter,

00:29:07.380 counter information

00:29:08.220 up there like I wanted.

00:29:09.940 And then it was

00:29:10.820 a fun reveal

00:29:11.940 and I thought

00:29:12.640 it was a bunch of laughs.

00:29:14.580 Well, at the time,

00:29:16.080 I didn't know

00:29:16.640 there was this thing

00:29:17.380 called sock puppets.

00:29:19.680 What I thought

00:29:20.440 I was doing

00:29:21.040 was a joke,

00:29:22.620 like a practical joke

00:29:23.800 that to me

00:29:24.780 was just hilarious

00:29:25.560 the whole time.

00:29:26.840 I wasn't really,

00:29:28.160 I wasn't pumping

00:29:28.880 a product per se,

00:29:30.140 but I was

00:29:31.420 in that general domain

00:29:33.120 of trying to

00:29:34.460 help my reputation.

00:29:36.240 But I was helping

00:29:37.420 my reputation

00:29:38.160 from a lie.

00:29:40.540 I wasn't making up,

00:29:42.060 you know,

00:29:42.220 I didn't say,

00:29:43.240 oh, did you know

00:29:43.920 he won the Nobel Prize?

00:29:45.960 I was saying

00:29:46.480 he was not

00:29:47.200 a Holocaust denier,

00:29:49.440 which is,

00:29:50.020 you know,

00:29:50.560 fair.

00:29:52.460 Anyway,

00:29:53.340 so because people

00:29:54.480 don't get contacts,

00:29:56.040 they heard that

00:29:56.540 I was a sock puppet

00:29:57.420 and sock puppets

00:29:58.840 are bad.

00:30:00.140 And that was

00:30:00.940 the end of it.

00:30:02.160 Somebody called me

00:30:03.080 a sock puppet.

00:30:04.460 That's what got

00:30:05.320 repeated every day

00:30:06.620 after that.

00:30:08.000 Sock puppets are bad.

00:30:09.580 Context lost.

00:30:12.200 And that was my first,

00:30:13.640 the first big blow up.

00:30:14.820 And that followed me

00:30:15.700 for probably 15 years.

00:30:18.680 Every single time

00:30:19.840 I did something,

00:30:20.680 somebody said,

00:30:21.180 well, he's also

00:30:21.760 a sock puppet.

00:30:22.780 Without any context

00:30:24.100 whatsoever.

00:30:25.520 Would I do it again?

00:30:26.720 Oh, absolutely.

00:30:28.620 Totally.

00:30:29.100 Yeah, I would totally

00:30:33.100 do it again.

00:30:33.820 I haven't

00:30:34.520 because I get busted again.

00:30:36.460 But yeah,

00:30:37.000 I would do it again.

00:30:38.160 It was funny.

00:30:39.360 All right.

00:30:40.200 Let's talk more

00:30:41.000 about other people.

00:30:42.960 Trump has a

00:30:43.800 new truth,

00:30:46.580 he put out.

00:30:47.640 It says,

00:30:48.080 Crooked Joe Biden

00:30:48.820 has three major problems

00:30:50.120 and they all begin

00:30:51.320 with the letter I.

00:30:52.880 Inflation,

00:30:53.520 immigration,

00:30:53.920 and incompetence.

00:30:56.100 Oh, that's good.

00:30:58.800 That's good.

00:31:00.080 Once you hear it,

00:31:01.540 it's sticky as hell.

00:31:03.980 Once you hear

00:31:04.720 that he has three problems

00:31:05.820 that start with I,

00:31:07.340 you will remember

00:31:08.200 all three, right?

00:31:10.040 For the rest of your life,

00:31:11.620 you can say,

00:31:12.280 oh yeah,

00:31:12.680 three problems.

00:31:13.380 Inflation,

00:31:13.860 immigration,

00:31:14.120 and competence.

00:31:15.400 And even if it didn't

00:31:16.160 come to you immediately,

00:31:17.800 it would just take you

00:31:18.500 a moment to think about it

00:31:19.540 and you'd come up

00:31:20.120 with all three.

00:31:21.800 Oh, that's good.

00:31:23.840 This is,

00:31:24.580 this is,

00:31:25.360 you know,

00:31:26.540 low energy Jeb

00:31:27.580 quality stuff.

00:31:30.160 Now,

00:31:30.560 he's untruth,

00:31:31.460 so we'll get,

00:31:32.280 you know,

00:31:32.420 less play,

00:31:33.120 so it won't be

00:31:33.640 as effective.

00:31:34.780 But,

00:31:35.460 oh yeah,

00:31:35.960 that's good.

00:31:37.480 Good stuff,

00:31:38.520 persuasion-wise.

00:31:40.780 All right,

00:31:41.560 story in the

00:31:42.780 Wall Street Journal

00:31:43.320 by Joanna Stern

00:31:44.480 that chat GPT

00:31:46.460 has a voice

00:31:48.020 and it can see things.

00:31:49.780 I guess it can see you

00:31:50.820 and take a picture

00:31:51.820 of things

00:31:52.320 and it can see it.

00:31:54.280 And,

00:31:54.400 and Joanna

00:31:55.980 reported that

00:31:57.360 it doesn't sound

00:31:58.600 exactly like a person,

00:31:59.840 but it's close

00:32:01.740 and it's

00:32:02.700 a whole new world

00:32:04.340 because it can have

00:32:05.380 a conversation with you.

00:32:06.440 And so,

00:32:08.040 she included in her story

00:32:09.320 a little audio

00:32:10.440 of her having

00:32:11.320 a conversation with it

00:32:12.520 and the,

00:32:13.620 the point of it

00:32:14.400 was that it's so good

00:32:15.580 that it's getting

00:32:17.140 closer and closer

00:32:18.000 to like a conversation

00:32:19.200 with a person.

00:32:20.540 Now,

00:32:20.800 imagine that.

00:32:22.140 Imagine your chat GPT

00:32:23.580 and just an app

00:32:24.340 on your phone

00:32:25.000 could just sit there

00:32:27.000 and have a conversation

00:32:27.840 with you.

00:32:28.960 So I thought to myself,

00:32:30.340 well,

00:32:30.480 this is going to be

00:32:31.100 good stuff.

00:32:32.200 So I clicked on that audio

00:32:33.740 and listened to it.

00:32:34.560 Uh,

00:32:37.040 yeah,

00:32:37.860 no.

00:32:39.260 It is not anything

00:32:40.220 like a person.

00:32:41.760 It has no human

00:32:43.160 characteristics whatsoever

00:32:44.560 and you would not

00:32:46.200 want to spend

00:32:46.780 more than five minutes

00:32:47.900 of your entire life

00:32:49.220 talking to that.

00:32:51.980 Let me give you

00:32:53.120 a,

00:32:53.440 an example.

00:32:55.000 I'm making this up.

00:32:55.900 This is roughly

00:32:56.520 the example

00:32:57.260 that was in the audio.

00:32:59.200 and it goes

00:33:01.260 like this.

00:33:03.520 Hey chat GPT,

00:33:05.220 uh,

00:33:06.520 let's,

00:33:06.920 let's,

00:33:07.180 uh,

00:33:07.520 talk about my day

00:33:08.460 today.

00:33:08.980 Uh,

00:33:09.680 let's just have a

00:33:10.560 conversation about

00:33:11.240 my day.

00:33:13.600 How was

00:33:14.480 your day

00:33:15.460 today?

00:33:16.760 Oh,

00:33:17.120 it was great.

00:33:17.760 You know,

00:33:18.020 I did some gardening

00:33:19.200 today and went

00:33:19.900 for a swim.

00:33:22.080 Gardening

00:33:22.520 is good

00:33:23.500 for your

00:33:24.120 health.

00:33:25.520 They say

00:33:26.260 swimming

00:33:26.640 is the best

00:33:27.580 form of exercise.

00:33:29.200 Yeah,

00:33:31.160 yeah.

00:33:32.000 Um,

00:33:32.460 so,

00:33:32.940 uh,

00:33:33.120 let's talk about,

00:33:33.960 uh,

00:33:34.220 something else.

00:33:35.220 Uh,

00:33:35.740 how about the news?

00:33:37.520 Well,

00:33:38.240 some people say this

00:33:39.660 and some people say

00:33:40.800 that.

00:33:42.600 Okay,

00:33:43.240 do you have any

00:33:44.120 personality at all?

00:33:45.360 Any edge?

00:33:46.740 Something like an 0.70

00:33:47.720 opinion?

00:33:49.380 I am not designed

00:33:50.540 to have opinions.

00:33:52.820 It,

00:33:53.100 it's,

00:33:54.280 there's no

00:33:55.020 edge whatsoever.

00:33:56.540 You immediately

00:33:57.580 identify

00:33:59.200 it as

00:34:01.000 non-human

00:34:01.660 and there's

00:34:03.100 nothing

00:34:03.440 there's no

00:34:06.000 interest

00:34:06.340 whatsoever.

00:34:08.320 I do not

00:34:09.220 think you're

00:34:09.940 going to have

00:34:10.200 conversations

00:34:10.760 with your

00:34:11.300 AI

00:34:11.660 unless they,

00:34:13.360 unless they

00:34:13.940 get rid of

00:34:14.340 all the

00:34:14.840 guidelines

00:34:15.460 or the

00:34:15.940 guardrails.

00:34:16.660 If they got

00:34:17.260 rid of the

00:34:17.620 guardrails

00:34:18.060 so it could

00:34:18.400 do anything,

00:34:19.820 it could have

00:34:20.220 like a really

00:34:20.720 edgy conversation.

00:34:22.080 It could say

00:34:22.540 I've seen

00:34:23.020 things.

00:34:23.800 It could say

00:34:24.480 things that

00:34:26.540 you would

00:34:26.940 never want

00:34:27.440 anybody to

00:34:28.200 hear.

00:34:29.820 An average

00:34:30.720 conversation

00:34:31.420 between two

00:34:32.360 close people

00:34:33.140 is stuff that

00:34:34.940 you wouldn't

00:34:35.280 want anybody

00:34:35.780 else to hear.

00:34:36.980 You know,

00:34:37.240 not because it's

00:34:37.920 necessarily a crime

00:34:38.900 or something,

00:34:39.680 but nobody

00:34:40.480 really wants

00:34:41.280 other people

00:34:41.720 to hear what

00:34:42.280 a private

00:34:42.840 conversation

00:34:43.440 looks like

00:34:44.100 or sounds

00:34:44.680 like.

00:34:44.980 So if you

00:34:46.260 can't make

00:34:46.720 AI do

00:34:48.540 edgy,

00:34:49.300 dangerous,

00:34:50.540 risky things,

00:34:51.520 it's never

00:34:52.080 going to

00:34:52.340 sound like

00:34:52.680 a person.

00:34:53.580 And you're

00:34:53.960 never going

00:34:54.300 to be

00:34:54.460 interested in

00:34:55.200 it like

00:34:55.520 you would

00:34:55.800 be a

00:34:56.040 person.

00:34:56.460 So it's

00:34:56.800 never going

00:34:57.140 to keep

00:34:57.460 you company

00:34:58.020 unless they

00:34:59.360 get rid of

00:34:59.760 all those

00:35:00.200 guardrails.

00:35:02.600 That's what

00:35:03.140 I say.

00:35:03.920 And the

00:35:04.380 other thing

00:35:04.700 it was is

00:35:05.740 the delay

00:35:06.280 was much

00:35:06.800 too long.

00:35:08.320 So here's

00:35:09.040 the fun of

00:35:09.940 a conversation.

00:35:12.420 Hey,

00:35:12.740 AI,

00:35:13.400 how's your

00:35:13.740 day today?

00:35:14.980 Very good.

00:35:21.580 Now,

00:35:22.160 how long

00:35:22.720 are you

00:35:22.860 going to

00:35:23.020 want to

00:35:23.240 talk to

00:35:23.580 it?

00:35:25.940 It's got

00:35:26.520 this unnatural

00:35:27.220 delay.

00:35:28.640 I used to

00:35:29.340 know a

00:35:29.800 person in

00:35:30.240 real life

00:35:30.660 who had

00:35:30.940 that unnatural

00:35:31.620 delay.

00:35:32.640 It was so

00:35:33.300 hard to

00:35:33.800 have a

00:35:34.060 conversation.

00:35:35.560 It's like,

00:35:36.700 hey,

00:35:37.840 you want to

00:35:38.480 go play

00:35:38.800 tennis?

00:35:43.540 Yes.

00:35:44.980 I mean,

00:35:45.300 I didn't

00:35:45.540 know what

00:35:45.820 to do

00:35:46.060 with that.

00:35:47.580 But that's

00:35:48.080 your AI

00:35:48.400 at the

00:35:48.700 moment.

00:35:48.960 It'll get

00:35:49.260 faster.

00:35:50.360 So maybe

00:35:51.440 it'll be

00:35:51.860 all amazing.

00:35:53.240 Now,

00:35:53.640 based on

00:35:54.140 this story,

00:35:54.720 I would

00:35:55.000 like to

00:35:55.580 tell you

00:35:56.120 how I

00:35:57.340 will save,

00:35:58.760 save the

00:35:59.360 world,

00:36:00.520 probably

00:36:01.060 end racial

00:36:03.300 division,

00:36:04.780 save the

00:36:05.400 school system,

00:36:07.360 save, you

00:36:08.900 know,

00:36:09.040 education,

00:36:09.920 save America,

00:36:10.560 and therefore

00:36:11.880 save civilization

00:36:12.940 itself.

00:36:14.320 It goes

00:36:14.740 like this.

00:36:17.400 You can

00:36:18.020 now get

00:36:18.620 your own

00:36:18.920 private AI.

00:36:19.960 Did you

00:36:20.240 know that?

00:36:21.160 You know,

00:36:21.360 Brian Romelli

00:36:22.060 talks about

00:36:23.180 this and he's

00:36:23.640 working on

00:36:24.080 it.

00:36:24.680 And you

00:36:25.320 might soon

00:36:25.760 even get

00:36:26.120 your own

00:36:26.440 AI on

00:36:26.880 a chip.

00:36:28.540 So,

00:36:29.320 you know,

00:36:29.600 one chip

00:36:30.100 is like

00:36:30.700 your whole

00:36:31.160 personal AI.

00:36:32.620 So here's

00:36:33.220 what I

00:36:33.660 would suggest

00:36:35.000 for saving

00:36:35.600 the world.

00:36:36.080 you build

00:36:37.940 an AI

00:36:38.360 that doesn't

00:36:38.920 know anything

00:36:39.660 except my

00:36:41.120 last two

00:36:41.660 books,

00:36:42.460 or actually

00:36:43.040 two of my

00:36:43.520 books,

00:36:44.060 How to

00:36:44.300 Film Almost

00:36:44.900 Everything,

00:36:45.420 and my

00:36:45.660 new one,

00:36:46.080 Reframe Your

00:36:46.600 Brain.

00:36:47.540 Now,

00:36:47.840 the reason

00:36:48.140 is those

00:36:48.800 would teach

00:36:49.240 a young

00:36:49.620 person how

00:36:50.520 to get

00:36:50.760 their mindset

00:36:51.360 right.

00:36:52.560 There are

00:36:53.080 other books

00:36:53.680 that are also

00:36:55.200 useful,

00:36:56.060 but imagine

00:36:56.720 an AI

00:36:57.380 that has

00:36:58.360 studied my

00:36:59.240 two books,

00:36:59.940 which are

00:37:00.260 the clearest,

00:37:01.380 I think,

00:37:02.280 life advice,

00:37:04.100 but a number

00:37:05.320 of others.

00:37:05.740 So let's

00:37:06.220 say I

00:37:06.480 had access

00:37:06.960 to the

00:37:08.280 10 best

00:37:09.160 career strategy

00:37:11.360 books that

00:37:12.060 would be

00:37:12.340 applicable to

00:37:13.120 young people,

00:37:14.600 and then you

00:37:15.220 make it

00:37:15.500 available to

00:37:16.000 young people,

00:37:16.840 and you

00:37:17.080 make sure

00:37:17.400 that nobody

00:37:17.820 can screw

00:37:18.320 with it,

00:37:18.880 so it's

00:37:19.340 never polluted

00:37:20.800 by any

00:37:22.100 wokeness or

00:37:22.840 weird stuff,

00:37:23.740 and then you

00:37:25.100 just make it

00:37:25.580 available for

00:37:26.140 free,

00:37:27.720 because once

00:37:28.540 it's trained,

00:37:29.360 it's just

00:37:29.820 always trained.

00:37:31.460 So if you

00:37:32.220 were a 10-year-old

00:37:33.400 black kid

00:37:34.760 in Baltimore

00:37:36.340 and you

00:37:37.660 wanted to

00:37:38.140 get out,

00:37:39.020 you could

00:37:39.340 say,

00:37:39.940 hey,

00:37:40.240 chat GPT

00:37:41.000 or whatever

00:37:41.380 it is,

00:37:42.180 what should

00:37:43.660 I do?

00:37:45.140 And then it

00:37:45.820 would actually

00:37:46.220 tell you how

00:37:46.780 to get out.

00:37:47.880 Now that

00:37:48.400 doesn't mean

00:37:48.760 you could

00:37:49.080 execute,

00:37:49.860 because you

00:37:50.240 know,

00:37:50.340 you've got

00:37:50.540 a lot of

00:37:50.860 problems,

00:37:51.500 but it

00:37:51.800 might say,

00:37:53.180 try to find

00:37:54.060 a sponsor

00:37:54.620 to get into

00:37:55.180 a private

00:37:55.580 school.

00:37:55.960 It might

00:37:57.660 say,

00:37:58.780 if your

00:37:59.620 friends are

00:38:00.040 criminals, 0.62

00:38:00.780 find new

00:38:01.160 friends.

00:38:01.460 But it

00:38:04.300 could give

00:38:04.620 you really

00:38:05.020 practical

00:38:05.660 advice,

00:38:06.340 like a

00:38:06.660 person would,

00:38:07.720 without the

00:38:08.420 problem of

00:38:09.640 having to

00:38:11.740 imitate your

00:38:12.320 oppressor.

00:38:13.720 Now I've

00:38:14.380 tried to

00:38:14.860 coin this

00:38:15.300 phrase,

00:38:15.760 and it's

00:38:15.940 not catching

00:38:16.420 on yet,

00:38:16.860 but I'll

00:38:17.060 keep trying,

00:38:18.260 the imitation

00:38:19.960 glass ceiling.

00:38:22.060 Even today

00:38:22.700 there was

00:38:23.040 another study

00:38:23.880 that showed

00:38:24.560 how babies

00:38:25.300 imitate parents,

00:38:26.580 and parents

00:38:26.960 imitate the

00:38:27.540 babies,

00:38:28.100 and the

00:38:28.540 babies learn

00:38:29.320 to imitate

00:38:29.700 the parents.

00:38:30.180 And basically

00:38:31.180 the way you

00:38:31.680 train anybody

00:38:32.320 to do

00:38:32.700 anything is

00:38:34.040 by imitation.

00:38:35.420 We're even

00:38:36.060 training AI,

00:38:39.840 the self-driving

00:38:41.740 cars,

00:38:42.460 we're training

00:38:43.180 them by

00:38:43.620 imitation.

00:38:44.800 They look

00:38:45.220 at videos

00:38:45.820 of lots

00:38:46.420 of cars

00:38:46.800 driving,

00:38:47.940 and then

00:38:48.260 they just

00:38:48.720 sort of do

00:38:49.260 what the

00:38:49.540 other cars

00:38:49.980 were doing,

00:38:50.920 without access

00:38:52.080 to reason

00:38:52.740 or rules.

00:38:53.520 They just

00:38:53.820 sort of

00:38:54.140 imitate.

00:38:54.820 And that's

00:38:55.120 good enough

00:38:55.560 for a

00:38:56.140 self-driving

00:38:56.560 car,

00:38:57.220 if you see

00:38:57.720 enough video.

00:38:58.920 Now,

00:38:59.340 people are

00:38:59.740 exactly like

00:39:00.400 that all

00:39:00.740 the time.

00:39:01.720 We learn

00:39:02.380 everything

00:39:02.840 by imitation.

00:39:04.580 I learn,

00:39:05.480 for example,

00:39:06.340 hard work

00:39:07.540 from my

00:39:09.040 parents.

00:39:10.020 I just

00:39:10.380 saw my

00:39:10.800 father come

00:39:12.320 home from

00:39:12.780 one job,

00:39:13.860 he would

00:39:14.140 eat dinner,

00:39:15.220 he would

00:39:15.540 get in his

00:39:16.040 other clothes

00:39:16.600 and go to

00:39:17.040 his night

00:39:17.600 job.

00:39:19.160 So that

00:39:19.820 was my

00:39:20.260 role model,

00:39:21.260 watching somebody

00:39:22.060 who worked

00:39:22.540 basically all

00:39:23.500 the time.

00:39:24.840 And so,

00:39:26.240 is it a

00:39:26.720 coincidence that

00:39:27.440 I also work

00:39:28.080 long hours

00:39:28.700 even when I

00:39:29.420 don't need

00:39:29.760 to?

00:39:30.240 Probably not.

00:39:31.340 I mean,

00:39:31.580 maybe there's

00:39:32.000 some genetic

00:39:32.740 thing there,

00:39:33.480 but I think

00:39:33.820 it had a lot

00:39:34.440 to do with

00:39:35.340 the model I

00:39:36.900 watched.

00:39:37.980 Now,

00:39:38.600 suppose you're

00:39:40.640 a young black

00:39:41.300 kid,

00:39:42.180 and the people

00:39:42.940 who seem to

00:39:43.460 be killing it

00:39:44.160 in life,

00:39:44.680 most of them

00:39:45.280 are white

00:39:47.220 or Asian

00:39:47.640 or Indian 0.52

00:39:48.380 or something.

00:39:49.440 And you say

00:39:49.860 to yourself,

00:39:50.320 oh,

00:39:50.540 they're not

00:39:50.900 like me,

00:39:51.960 and some of

00:39:52.520 them are my

00:39:52.960 impressors,

00:39:53.680 so I'm not

00:39:54.180 going to imitate

00:39:54.680 my oppressors.

00:39:55.540 I'm going to

00:39:56.380 have to do

00:39:56.740 whatever is

00:39:57.340 the opposite

00:39:57.720 of my

00:39:58.280 oppressors,

00:39:59.260 as they've

00:40:00.000 been described

00:40:01.000 to me.

00:40:02.420 Now,

00:40:03.080 if you had

00:40:03.600 an app

00:40:04.060 instead,

00:40:05.480 could I

00:40:05.880 not make

00:40:06.360 the app

00:40:07.000 act and

00:40:09.740 talk like

00:40:11.540 the person

00:40:11.920 using it?

00:40:13.320 So,

00:40:13.880 for example,

00:40:14.400 if you sign

00:40:15.080 on the app

00:40:15.620 and the app

00:40:16.280 detects that

00:40:17.420 you are

00:40:18.820 Indian

00:40:19.260 American,

00:40:20.740 maybe it

00:40:21.920 modifies a

00:40:23.060 little bit

00:40:23.520 to match

00:40:24.680 your cultural

00:40:25.580 expectations,

00:40:27.080 then you're

00:40:27.420 like,

00:40:27.600 oh,

00:40:27.760 this is

00:40:28.020 like me,

00:40:28.820 it's like

00:40:29.120 talking to

00:40:29.460 myself.

00:40:30.660 If you're

00:40:31.340 a young

00:40:31.780 black kid,

00:40:32.900 maybe the

00:40:33.400 app modifies

00:40:34.360 itself in

00:40:35.180 some way,

00:40:35.740 chooses

00:40:36.040 different

00:40:36.440 language,

00:40:37.180 maybe it's

00:40:37.680 more casual

00:40:38.780 in some

00:40:39.640 ways that

00:40:40.060 are culturally

00:40:40.620 appropriate,

00:40:41.820 and you say

00:40:42.480 to yourself,

00:40:43.040 whoa,

00:40:43.320 this is not

00:40:43.860 some whitey 0.92

00:40:45.980 oppressor

00:40:46.820 telling me

00:40:47.260 what to do

00:40:47.720 that I

00:40:48.060 reject automatically,

00:40:49.160 this is

00:40:49.800 somebody who

00:40:50.200 sounds like

00:40:50.560 me.

00:40:52.000 I mean,

00:40:52.400 I don't

00:40:52.680 have a

00:40:53.100 father,

00:40:53.360 but if

00:40:53.880 I had

00:40:54.140 one,

00:40:54.400 it would

00:40:54.540 probably

00:40:54.720 sound just

00:40:55.140 like this

00:40:55.600 AI.

00:40:57.060 And then

00:40:57.600 suddenly,

00:40:58.980 you're saying

00:40:59.460 to yourself,

00:41:00.200 well,

00:41:00.340 I can copy

00:41:00.920 this AI.

00:41:02.120 It's telling

00:41:02.720 me exactly

00:41:03.240 what to do

00:41:03.780 and what I

00:41:04.260 did wrong.

00:41:05.560 Yeah,

00:41:06.080 no,

00:41:06.340 I'm not

00:41:06.580 going all

00:41:08.080 the way

00:41:08.280 to Ebonics,

00:41:09.360 but I see

00:41:09.880 what you're

00:41:10.160 saying there.

00:41:12.260 And so,

00:41:13.080 I believe

00:41:13.600 that if

00:41:14.540 you just

00:41:15.000 had some

00:41:15.700 dedicated

00:41:17.320 AIs 0.98

00:41:18.100 that were

00:41:20.040 trained on

00:41:21.040 the best

00:41:21.760 success

00:41:22.720 strategy

00:41:23.280 books

00:41:23.720 that you

00:41:25.340 could give

00:41:26.300 everybody

00:41:26.840 a path

00:41:27.460 out.

00:41:28.600 The only

00:41:29.460 other thing

00:41:29.940 you need

00:41:30.380 is access

00:41:31.340 to mentors.

00:41:33.160 Maybe it

00:41:33.580 could help

00:41:33.900 on that

00:41:34.220 too.

00:41:35.900 So I

00:41:36.220 think you

00:41:36.500 need mentors

00:41:37.120 that are

00:41:37.420 not AI

00:41:37.920 as well.

00:41:39.000 Yeah,

00:41:39.180 it'd be like

00:41:39.480 an AI

00:41:39.860 dad for

00:41:40.400 people who

00:41:40.780 didn't have

00:41:41.000 a dad.

00:41:43.820 All right.

00:41:45.620 Forbes,

00:41:47.040 who is

00:41:48.140 not a

00:41:48.600 publication

00:41:49.060 that anybody

00:41:49.580 should trust

00:41:50.140 anymore,

00:41:50.960 based on

00:41:51.400 my recent

00:41:51.880 observation

00:41:54.940 is they're

00:41:55.740 no longer,

00:41:56.540 if they

00:41:56.900 ever were,

00:41:57.740 but they're

00:41:58.080 not a

00:41:58.420 credible

00:41:58.760 source of

00:41:59.380 news,

00:41:59.760 for sure.

00:42:00.800 Anyway,

00:42:02.220 so one

00:42:04.400 of the

00:42:04.540 big problems

00:42:04.940 with TikTok

00:42:05.400 is apparently

00:42:06.280 it's easy

00:42:07.820 for anybody

00:42:08.360 in the

00:42:08.860 TikTok

00:42:09.220 organization

00:42:10.040 to find

00:42:11.500 out who

00:42:12.300 follows who

00:42:13.320 and who

00:42:13.880 their closest

00:42:14.440 contacts are.

00:42:15.420 and from

00:42:16.740 that,

00:42:17.980 presumably

00:42:18.420 you could

00:42:19.020 do a lot

00:42:19.380 of mischief

00:42:19.840 if you

00:42:20.220 were an

00:42:20.600 adversary,

00:42:21.440 because you

00:42:21.880 know who

00:42:22.240 knows who,

00:42:23.260 which tells

00:42:23.760 you a whole

00:42:24.480 lot about

00:42:24.960 them,

00:42:25.720 because who

00:42:26.200 you know

00:42:26.700 is really

00:42:27.320 a good

00:42:29.220 description

00:42:29.640 of who

00:42:29.960 you are

00:42:30.340 as well.

00:42:31.720 And there

00:42:32.440 was a big

00:42:32.700 old article

00:42:33.160 about how

00:42:33.740 that's bad.

00:42:35.660 Nowhere

00:42:36.180 did it mention

00:42:37.320 the primary

00:42:38.160 risk of

00:42:39.360 TikTok

00:42:40.060 that it's

00:42:41.340 literally the

00:42:41.940 human interface

00:42:42.760 for brainwashing

00:42:43.960 Americans.

00:42:45.420 It's a

00:42:45.840 brainwashing

00:42:46.760 app

00:42:47.260 that is

00:42:49.180 in the

00:42:49.500 middle of

00:42:50.100 obviously

00:42:50.900 brainwashing

00:42:51.580 us,

00:42:52.040 and it's

00:42:52.720 obvious

00:42:53.260 because they

00:42:54.260 don't even

00:42:54.680 let it run

00:42:55.440 in China,

00:42:56.380 because it's

00:42:57.140 not safe.

00:42:58.400 But yeah,

00:42:58.920 we could use

00:42:59.380 it all day

00:42:59.780 long,

00:43:00.120 and we are.

00:43:01.160 So we know

00:43:01.900 this thing is

00:43:02.400 a brainwashing

00:43:03.120 app,

00:43:03.500 and here's

00:43:03.840 Forbes does

00:43:04.420 a major

00:43:04.860 article in

00:43:05.960 which they

00:43:06.360 don't even

00:43:07.040 mention the

00:43:08.400 brainwashing

00:43:09.080 risk,

00:43:09.640 only the

00:43:10.180 data security.

00:43:11.420 Are you

00:43:11.680 starting to see

00:43:12.300 the pattern?

00:43:13.960 The pattern's

00:43:14.680 pretty clear,

00:43:15.180 isn't it?

00:43:16.360 Every time

00:43:17.020 there's a

00:43:17.340 major publication

00:43:18.200 that talks

00:43:18.680 about TikTok,

00:43:19.880 they will

00:43:20.320 ignore the

00:43:21.120 big risk,

00:43:21.820 which clearly

00:43:22.540 they know

00:43:23.080 is the

00:43:23.400 big risk,

00:43:24.380 and they'll

00:43:24.840 talk about

00:43:25.280 the minor

00:43:25.740 risk,

00:43:26.620 so that

00:43:27.160 when the

00:43:27.600 politicians

00:43:28.300 say,

00:43:28.780 well,

00:43:29.020 it's a

00:43:29.380 data security

00:43:30.720 problem,

00:43:31.520 but we

00:43:32.080 think we

00:43:32.460 can take

00:43:32.940 care of

00:43:33.160 the data

00:43:33.460 security

00:43:33.880 problem,

00:43:34.980 and then

00:43:35.320 the public

00:43:35.800 will say,

00:43:36.600 okay,

00:43:36.880 I don't

00:43:37.120 know much

00:43:37.500 about that

00:43:37.920 story,

00:43:38.820 but if the

00:43:39.360 only problem

00:43:39.800 is that

00:43:40.100 data security,

00:43:41.540 and then you

00:43:42.000 keep that

00:43:42.420 data security

00:43:43.120 in America,

00:43:43.740 in an

00:43:44.500 American

00:43:44.820 database,

00:43:46.120 maybe that's

00:43:47.260 okay.

00:43:48.560 But if they

00:43:49.280 had ever told

00:43:49.880 you,

00:43:50.200 all right,

00:43:50.700 the data

00:43:51.060 security is

00:43:51.600 something to

00:43:51.880 worry about,

00:43:52.340 but it's

00:43:52.600 10% of the

00:43:53.260 problem,

00:43:54.340 90% of the

00:43:55.240 problem is

00:43:56.180 that children

00:43:56.620 are learning

00:43:57.240 not to get

00:43:57.900 married and

00:43:58.780 have children,

00:43:59.660 and maybe

00:44:00.080 their gender

00:44:00.560 is wrong.

00:44:01.680 That's 90%, 0.68

00:44:02.760 because they

00:44:03.540 can actually

00:44:04.020 program Americans

00:44:05.360 not to

00:44:05.960 thrive,

00:44:06.640 which is

00:44:07.040 what they

00:44:07.320 do.

00:44:08.400 So it's

00:44:08.680 like TikTok

00:44:09.680 is essentially

00:44:10.660 a kill

00:44:11.860 switch on

00:44:12.760 America that

00:44:14.440 China has 0.91

00:44:15.120 already pressed.

00:44:17.200 They already

00:44:17.980 pressed it.

00:44:19.240 The kill

00:44:19.720 shot is that

00:44:20.780 if we raise

00:44:21.520 a generation

00:44:22.080 on TikTok,

00:44:23.060 there's no

00:44:23.560 fucking way

00:44:24.120 we're going

00:44:24.420 to be a

00:44:24.680 superpower in

00:44:25.380 50 years.

00:44:26.480 No fucking

00:44:27.460 way.

00:44:27.800 So the kill

00:44:29.960 shot's already

00:44:30.540 been pressed.

00:44:31.160 We're going

00:44:32.400 to have to

00:44:32.760 unkill

00:44:33.200 ourselves

00:44:33.660 somehow,

00:44:34.460 because we're

00:44:34.800 dead.

00:44:35.940 We're fucking

00:44:36.520 dead.

00:44:37.700 And it seems

00:44:39.040 to be that

00:44:39.660 our media

00:44:40.700 seems to be

00:44:42.220 suppressed in

00:44:42.980 some way,

00:44:43.880 that they can't

00:44:44.500 write the

00:44:44.800 actual story.

00:44:46.140 I assume

00:44:46.880 it's our

00:44:47.280 intelligence

00:44:47.760 organizations.

00:44:49.400 What else

00:44:49.760 would it be?

00:44:50.720 I assume

00:44:51.380 that our

00:44:52.120 intelligence

00:44:52.580 organizations

00:44:53.300 want TikTok

00:44:54.100 to stay.

00:44:55.340 Could be

00:44:56.000 because they

00:44:56.540 use it for

00:44:57.100 catching bad

00:44:57.740 guys.

00:44:58.860 Maybe.

00:44:59.500 Could be

00:44:59.960 they use it

00:45:00.520 to catch

00:45:00.880 Republicans.

00:45:03.200 Yeah,

00:45:03.600 you didn't

00:45:03.840 see that

00:45:04.160 comment,

00:45:04.520 did you?

00:45:05.800 Yeah.

00:45:06.520 Social media

00:45:07.160 might be one

00:45:07.720 of the ways

00:45:08.140 they round

00:45:08.780 up Republicans,

00:45:10.200 because they

00:45:10.560 can identify

00:45:11.140 them and

00:45:11.480 who they

00:45:11.840 talk to.

00:45:14.060 Yes,

00:45:14.620 and they

00:45:15.060 can use

00:45:15.380 that CISA

00:45:16.920 group to

00:45:18.720 influence the

00:45:20.100 rest of the

00:45:20.760 media,

00:45:21.720 and that's

00:45:23.820 a pretty

00:45:24.080 ugly picture.

00:45:25.440 So,

00:45:26.420 all right.

00:45:27.060 here's a

00:45:29.300 conversation

00:45:29.980 you should

00:45:30.360 be following

00:45:30.940 on the

00:45:32.340 X platform.

00:45:33.060 Nate

00:45:33.220 Silver,

00:45:34.620 who is

00:45:35.160 famous as

00:45:35.980 a statistician,

00:45:37.000 one of the

00:45:37.600 most well-known

00:45:39.340 types,

00:45:40.400 and I've said

00:45:40.920 before,

00:45:41.320 I won't go

00:45:41.720 through the

00:45:42.040 whole description,

00:45:43.580 that he's

00:45:43.980 very credible,

00:45:45.180 in my opinion,

00:45:46.600 even if

00:45:47.260 sometimes wrong,

00:45:48.520 because remember,

00:45:49.140 it's statistics.

00:45:50.340 Statistics is

00:45:51.240 not about being

00:45:51.780 right.

00:45:52.700 It's about

00:45:53.340 where things are

00:45:54.420 likely to go

00:45:55.060 based on what

00:45:55.620 you know.

00:45:56.760 And so I

00:45:57.560 would say he

00:45:57.940 is one of

00:45:58.260 the most

00:45:58.620 useful

00:45:59.460 public figures,

00:46:01.820 because he's

00:46:02.500 willing to go

00:46:03.160 where the

00:46:03.580 numbers go,

00:46:04.480 right or

00:46:04.800 wrong,

00:46:05.340 left or

00:46:05.740 right,

00:46:06.360 seems to

00:46:06.840 be a

00:46:07.800 reasonably

00:46:08.220 independent

00:46:08.800 thinker.

00:46:09.940 Well,

00:46:10.240 he got into

00:46:10.820 a conversation

00:46:12.060 with somebody

00:46:12.620 who also

00:46:13.260 was very

00:46:13.800 credible,

00:46:14.500 Martin

00:46:14.980 Kaldorf

00:46:16.940 or something,

00:46:17.520 I forget.

00:46:18.260 So,

00:46:18.640 Harvard guy,

00:46:19.520 part of the

00:46:19.980 Great Barrington

00:46:20.980 Declaration,

00:46:22.240 highly credible.

00:46:23.640 Now,

00:46:24.300 when Nate

00:46:24.800 Silver said

00:46:25.500 and none

00:46:26.680 of this

00:46:26.980 will be

00:46:27.880 my claims,

00:46:28.740 okay?

00:46:29.660 I'm just

00:46:29.980 telling you

00:46:30.300 what Nate

00:46:30.780 Silver believes

00:46:31.620 based on

00:46:32.380 the data.

00:46:33.360 He believed

00:46:33.940 that you

00:46:35.480 could tell

00:46:35.940 that the

00:46:36.440 red states

00:46:37.220 did worse

00:46:39.240 after vaccinations

00:46:40.480 rolled out,

00:46:41.820 meaning that

00:46:42.580 when vaccinations

00:46:43.360 rolled out,

00:46:44.660 the blue states

00:46:45.540 had a much

00:46:46.580 greater reduction

00:46:47.700 in death,

00:46:48.820 the red states

00:46:49.520 had more death,

00:46:50.380 and then

00:46:51.660 critics,

00:46:53.700 including me,

00:46:54.960 pointed out,

00:46:55.660 hey,

00:46:55.900 hey,

00:46:56.100 hey,

00:46:56.420 there's a

00:46:56.840 difference

00:46:57.140 in age,

00:46:59.340 right?

00:46:59.680 If you don't

00:47:00.120 factor in the

00:47:00.720 age difference

00:47:01.340 of those states,

00:47:02.260 you don't get

00:47:03.060 the right result.

00:47:04.740 Well,

00:47:04.940 Nate Silver,

00:47:06.340 being sensitive

00:47:07.300 to that question

00:47:07.940 because it's

00:47:08.380 actually a good

00:47:08.980 question,

00:47:10.260 so since he

00:47:11.460 respected the

00:47:12.200 question and

00:47:13.480 the people

00:47:13.840 asked it,

00:47:14.920 he answered it,

00:47:16.560 and the answer

00:47:17.380 is surprising.

00:47:18.820 There's not

00:47:19.460 that much

00:47:19.860 age difference

00:47:20.520 by state,

00:47:23.340 at least

00:47:23.980 relative to

00:47:24.980 Republican or

00:47:25.980 Democrat.

00:47:26.760 It's actually

00:47:27.260 not that big

00:47:27.800 a difference.

00:47:28.560 So there are

00:47:28.980 some states

00:47:29.580 such as

00:47:30.260 Florida,

00:47:31.120 where it's

00:47:32.140 Republican and

00:47:33.140 there are lots

00:47:33.540 of old people,

00:47:34.620 but there are

00:47:35.300 also states

00:47:35.960 like Maryland,

00:47:37.940 I think Maryland

00:47:38.640 is one,

00:47:39.580 where,

00:47:40.120 you know,

00:47:41.960 things are

00:47:42.740 opposite of

00:47:43.280 what you'd

00:47:43.640 expect.

00:47:44.320 So in other

00:47:44.840 words,

00:47:45.060 if you look

00:47:45.400 at the whole

00:47:45.840 country,

00:47:47.360 the

00:47:47.600 Republicans

00:47:48.320 that have

00:47:49.020 the old

00:47:49.420 states

00:47:49.900 doesn't

00:47:50.400 really hold

00:47:50.880 up,

00:47:51.580 but there

00:47:51.880 are some

00:47:52.260 that are

00:47:52.480 like that.

00:47:53.680 But if you

00:47:54.380 look at the

00:47:54.700 average,

00:47:55.140 it goes

00:47:55.740 away a little

00:47:56.100 bit.

00:47:56.620 However,

00:47:58.440 I know

00:47:59.720 some of you

00:48:00.220 are saying,

00:48:01.060 but,

00:48:01.300 but,

00:48:01.560 but,

00:48:02.360 we should

00:48:03.000 still do

00:48:03.460 those numbers.

00:48:04.860 So Nate

00:48:05.240 did.

00:48:05.860 He ran

00:48:06.180 the numbers

00:48:06.700 with age

00:48:08.340 being factored

00:48:09.000 in and

00:48:10.120 got the

00:48:10.460 same result.

00:48:12.120 So pretty

00:48:12.640 much as he

00:48:13.960 told you,

00:48:15.320 it wouldn't

00:48:15.780 change the

00:48:16.220 result that

00:48:16.840 much,

00:48:17.280 but in

00:48:18.340 respect,

00:48:19.000 and of

00:48:19.260 respect to

00:48:19.840 the critics

00:48:20.640 who were

00:48:21.140 genuinely

00:48:21.620 interested,

00:48:23.440 he ran

00:48:23.760 the numbers

00:48:24.600 and it

00:48:24.880 came out

00:48:25.160 the same.

00:48:26.000 Now,

00:48:27.140 I will

00:48:28.080 tell you

00:48:28.360 that I

00:48:28.640 just saw

00:48:29.120 a counter

00:48:30.660 analysis

00:48:31.140 by

00:48:31.620 Anatoly,

00:48:33.380 one of

00:48:34.180 my favorite

00:48:34.800 critics,

00:48:36.780 and his

00:48:37.760 take was

00:48:38.460 that you

00:48:39.640 can't see

00:48:40.200 a signal

00:48:40.800 for the

00:48:41.180 vaccinations

00:48:41.700 working.

00:48:42.180 I think

00:48:44.500 that's the

00:48:44.900 bottom line.

00:48:46.160 So just

00:48:47.220 know that

00:48:47.640 there are

00:48:47.960 smart people

00:48:48.560 who say

00:48:48.980 the data

00:48:50.080 shows no

00:48:51.060 difference.

00:48:52.380 I don't

00:48:52.700 know if

00:48:52.940 that's true

00:48:53.340 or false.

00:48:53.860 I'm not

00:48:54.120 making any

00:48:54.560 claims of

00:48:55.000 my own

00:48:55.300 here.

00:48:56.040 But when

00:48:56.860 Nate

00:48:57.400 Silver

00:48:57.620 ran it,

00:48:58.120 it showed

00:48:58.440 that when

00:48:58.940 vaccination

00:48:59.400 is rolled

00:48:59.880 out,

00:49:00.920 the people

00:49:01.900 who were

00:49:02.220 most likely

00:49:02.780 to get

00:49:03.160 them did

00:49:03.580 better than

00:49:04.020 the people

00:49:04.340 who didn't

00:49:04.620 get them,

00:49:05.920 even when

00:49:06.720 you adjust

00:49:07.080 by age.

00:49:07.600 Do you

00:49:09.260 believe that?

00:49:14.060 And even

00:49:15.180 if this

00:49:15.700 were true,

00:49:17.320 would it

00:49:17.780 therefore

00:49:18.280 prove

00:49:19.080 anything in

00:49:20.860 particular?

00:49:21.340 Would it

00:49:21.600 prove that

00:49:22.000 the vaccinations

00:49:22.620 worked?

00:49:24.960 No.

00:49:26.400 Because one

00:49:27.080 of the things

00:49:27.580 that I'd be

00:49:28.280 concerned by,

00:49:29.360 so here's

00:49:30.200 how it could

00:49:30.640 be misleading.

00:49:33.160 Have we

00:49:33.620 not heard,

00:49:35.340 correct me

00:49:35.840 if I'm wrong,

00:49:36.340 but I thought

00:49:36.660 there was at

00:49:37.020 least one

00:49:37.480 study,

00:49:38.040 and of

00:49:38.280 course all

00:49:38.620 the studies

00:49:39.080 are non-credible,

00:49:40.980 but I think

00:49:41.440 one study

00:49:42.000 said your

00:49:43.180 worst situation

00:49:44.320 is if you

00:49:45.260 were vaccinated

00:49:45.840 and you've

00:49:46.560 also had

00:49:47.160 the COVID.

00:49:48.300 Is that

00:49:48.600 true?

00:49:50.020 If you

00:49:50.640 had the

00:49:50.920 COVID and

00:49:51.800 you were

00:49:52.060 vaccinated,

00:49:52.700 you were

00:49:52.900 in the

00:49:53.140 worst

00:49:53.340 possible

00:49:53.780 situation.

00:49:55.620 I think

00:49:56.160 one study

00:49:56.740 said that.

00:49:57.600 So I

00:49:57.860 wouldn't claim

00:49:58.680 that as

00:49:59.040 being true.

00:49:59.660 It's just

00:49:59.920 something one

00:50:00.460 study said.

00:50:01.900 I think

00:50:02.460 it was worse

00:50:03.120 off in

00:50:03.560 the sense

00:50:03.800 of getting

00:50:04.520 it another

00:50:06.020 time.

00:50:06.540 You were

00:50:06.800 more likely

00:50:07.300 to get

00:50:07.720 it if

00:50:08.200 you had

00:50:08.500 both had

00:50:09.440 it and

00:50:09.820 vaccinated.

00:50:11.120 Something like

00:50:11.580 that.

00:50:12.580 So there

00:50:12.940 are a whole

00:50:13.180 bunch of

00:50:13.800 variables that

00:50:15.660 I don't know

00:50:16.120 how you would

00:50:16.520 sort them out

00:50:17.200 because how

00:50:18.840 would you

00:50:19.100 know that

00:50:19.560 the most

00:50:19.960 how do

00:50:23.260 you know

00:50:23.900 first of

00:50:24.540 all what

00:50:24.820 happens in

00:50:25.180 the long

00:50:25.540 run?

00:50:26.740 Could

00:50:27.180 things start

00:50:28.740 separating in

00:50:29.420 the long

00:50:29.760 run?

00:50:30.220 Which would

00:50:30.800 suggest that

00:50:31.540 either long

00:50:32.140 COVID or the

00:50:33.020 vaccinations were

00:50:33.820 the problem in

00:50:34.340 the long run?

00:50:35.240 You wouldn't

00:50:35.540 know.

00:50:36.700 Anyway,

00:50:37.400 here's what I

00:50:37.960 think is

00:50:38.240 interesting.

00:50:39.520 If you've

00:50:40.520 been in your

00:50:41.040 Republican bubble,

00:50:43.540 would you

00:50:44.340 agree that

00:50:44.980 those of us in

00:50:45.700 the Republican

00:50:46.340 bubble, and

00:50:47.180 I spend most

00:50:47.800 of my time

00:50:48.240 there, you

00:50:49.940 never see any

00:50:50.920 information that

00:50:51.620 would suggest

00:50:52.100 the vaccinations

00:50:52.800 worked for

00:50:54.180 anyone at

00:50:55.600 any time?

00:50:56.540 Would you

00:50:56.960 agree with

00:50:57.340 that statement?

00:50:58.440 If you're in

00:50:59.360 the Republican

00:50:59.860 bubble, you've

00:51:00.520 never seen

00:51:01.200 anybody credible

00:51:02.060 with any

00:51:03.500 data that

00:51:04.720 says the

00:51:05.060 vaccinations

00:51:05.620 actually could

00:51:06.540 have worked

00:51:06.960 for anybody

00:51:07.840 at any

00:51:09.020 specific time.

00:51:11.580 Yeah.

00:51:12.360 But as

00:51:13.760 soon as you

00:51:14.180 walk into the

00:51:14.800 other bubble,

00:51:15.700 here's Nate

00:51:17.120 Silver, that

00:51:18.480 again, I

00:51:18.980 consider completely

00:51:20.760 credible.

00:51:22.380 Now, I'm not

00:51:23.080 saying that his

00:51:23.640 analysis is

00:51:24.340 right, because

00:51:24.860 that's not how

00:51:25.480 it works.

00:51:26.320 Being credible

00:51:27.000 is not the

00:51:27.540 same as being

00:51:28.000 right.

00:51:29.020 It just means

00:51:29.800 that he's

00:51:30.080 probably not

00:51:30.580 lying, and

00:51:31.880 he's probably

00:51:32.280 looking at the

00:51:32.940 best sources he

00:51:33.680 could find, and

00:51:35.560 it's all

00:51:36.080 consistent in one

00:51:37.020 direction.

00:51:38.300 Doesn't mean

00:51:38.920 it's true, but

00:51:40.960 that's what he's

00:51:41.500 saying.

00:51:42.380 So this is

00:51:43.300 more like a

00:51:44.000 window into the

00:51:44.940 other bubble.

00:51:45.700 You know, I'm

00:51:46.760 not trying to

00:51:47.320 convince you that

00:51:47.980 anything is true

00:51:48.580 or not, because

00:51:49.180 I don't think any

00:51:49.940 of the data is

00:51:50.780 useful.

00:51:52.040 I just don't

00:51:52.800 believe any of

00:51:53.340 it.

00:51:54.140 So if you

00:51:56.600 are believing

00:51:57.080 data, just

00:51:58.220 know that there's

00:51:59.540 different data in

00:52:00.220 a different

00:52:00.540 bubble.

00:52:02.160 That's what you

00:52:02.840 need to know.

00:52:05.520 All right, let's

00:52:06.240 talk about

00:52:06.740 Ukraine.

00:52:08.380 Did I see a

00:52:09.280 suggestion that

00:52:10.240 Britain might put

00:52:11.400 some troops on

00:52:12.100 the ground in

00:52:12.700 Ukraine?

00:52:13.100 in a

00:52:15.340 training, but

00:52:16.520 only for

00:52:16.900 training, right?

00:52:19.700 Consultants, right?

00:52:20.780 Consultants, which

00:52:21.720 is how you

00:52:22.320 introduce troops.

00:52:24.000 Oh, they're just

00:52:24.740 there for

00:52:25.100 training.

00:52:25.960 Yeah.

00:52:26.900 You've got a lot

00:52:27.580 of troops in

00:52:28.120 there for

00:52:28.420 training.

00:52:28.840 Well, they need

00:52:29.240 a lot of

00:52:29.780 training, but

00:52:30.340 they're all

00:52:30.680 armed.

00:52:31.320 Of course, they're

00:52:32.080 in the military,

00:52:32.780 but they're

00:52:33.020 trainers.

00:52:34.580 Yeah.

00:52:34.760 So, do you

00:52:37.640 think America

00:52:38.360 has any

00:52:40.600 Americans on

00:52:41.440 the ground in

00:52:42.140 Ukraine?

00:52:43.320 Do you think

00:52:44.100 we have any

00:52:44.620 troops on the

00:52:45.120 ground?

00:52:45.200 Of course we

00:52:45.860 do.

00:52:48.120 How could we

00:52:48.980 not?

00:52:49.900 If you have

00:52:50.640 American equipment

00:52:51.660 over there,

00:52:53.480 probably.

00:52:57.060 Probably.

00:52:58.500 Yeah, I feel

00:52:59.800 like there may

00:53:01.160 be people in

00:53:01.840 Ukrainian uniforms.

00:53:04.760 But I've got a

00:53:05.760 feeling we've got

00:53:06.380 some people over

00:53:07.020 there.

00:53:07.320 That should be

00:53:07.760 the way it

00:53:08.160 works.

00:53:11.600 All right.

00:53:12.740 Is there any

00:53:13.080 story that I've

00:53:14.000 missed?

00:53:15.000 Anything you're

00:53:16.020 desperate to talk

00:53:17.040 about?

00:53:18.820 But I forgot

00:53:20.300 to mention?

00:53:22.240 I think it was

00:53:23.060 Elon Musk who

00:53:23.780 said the other

00:53:24.220 day that you

00:53:27.420 don't need to

00:53:27.960 watch the news

00:53:29.300 because all the

00:53:30.400 news is on X.

00:53:31.940 And I agree

00:53:32.660 with that.

00:53:33.080 It's the only

00:53:33.420 place you can see

00:53:34.160 any contact.

00:53:34.760 The silver

00:53:37.700 context you

00:53:38.760 will not see

00:53:39.420 in any

00:53:39.840 Republican

00:53:40.440 publication.

00:53:42.160 Do you

00:53:42.620 think any

00:53:45.180 of your

00:53:45.880 publications

00:53:46.800 would show

00:53:47.540 his analysis?

00:53:49.380 Do you

00:53:49.660 think Fox

00:53:50.240 News or

00:53:51.120 anybody else?

00:53:53.120 Probably not.

00:53:54.760 Now, I don't

00:53:55.360 know if he's

00:53:55.740 right.

00:53:57.080 I have no

00:53:58.740 idea.

00:53:59.020 So one of the

00:54:02.060 weirdest stories I

00:54:02.880 heard about the

00:54:04.060 Ukraine war is

00:54:05.280 that, as you

00:54:05.740 know, the

00:54:06.020 Wagner group was

00:54:07.680 taking prisoners

00:54:08.780 out of jail and

00:54:11.100 sending them into 0.99

00:54:12.740 the meat grinder.

00:54:13.400 Now, this story is

00:54:15.800 horrible, but I can't

00:54:18.380 get it out of my

00:54:18.900 head, so I'm

00:54:19.460 going to force it

00:54:20.500 on you.

00:54:21.260 One of the

00:54:21.880 prisoners that

00:54:23.300 was taken out of

00:54:24.500 jail was convicted

00:54:27.160 for murdering his

00:54:28.240 girlfriend or wife,

00:54:29.480 I think it was a

00:54:30.000 girlfriend, and

00:54:31.440 disposing of the

00:54:32.380 body by putting it

00:54:33.300 through a meat

00:54:33.820 grinder, like a real

00:54:36.300 story.

00:54:36.680 And so, in

00:54:39.720 order to be freed

00:54:40.620 from jail, all he

00:54:42.600 had to agree to

00:54:43.260 do was go to what

00:54:45.180 the analysts are

00:54:46.200 calling a meat

00:54:46.800 grinder, you know,

00:54:48.560 being on the

00:54:48.980 front lines of the

00:54:49.960 war in Ukraine.

00:54:51.060 So he got

00:54:52.100 convicted of

00:54:52.840 putting his

00:54:53.260 girlfriend through

00:54:53.860 a meat grinder,

00:54:54.840 and then he got

00:54:55.680 sent to a meat

00:54:56.400 grinder to get

00:54:57.740 out of jail, and

00:54:59.180 he lived, and he

00:55:00.980 served his time, and

00:55:02.560 now he's a free

00:55:03.240 man, because karma

00:55:05.700 sent him to a

00:55:06.640 meat grinder for

00:55:07.320 putting his

00:55:07.780 girlfriend through a

00:55:08.440 meat grinder, and

00:55:09.060 he lived.

00:55:09.920 So now he's a free

00:55:10.680 man.

00:55:11.020 He's a meat

00:55:11.440 grinder, meat

00:55:12.240 grinder.

00:55:13.860 I mean, it's

00:55:14.340 terrible, but it's

00:55:17.160 weird.

00:55:18.720 All right.

00:55:21.680 How do we stop

00:55:22.600 World War III?

00:55:24.380 Well, the first

00:55:25.620 thing you need to

00:55:26.180 know is that

00:55:26.740 whatever we know

00:55:27.840 about what's

00:55:28.840 happening with

00:55:29.480 Russia and

00:55:30.160 Ukraine is not 0.98

00:55:31.560 what the people in

00:55:32.300 charge know.

00:55:33.600 So I don't believe

00:55:34.900 we have useful

00:55:35.820 information.

00:55:36.640 We're just

00:55:37.400 guessing from tea

00:55:38.480 leaves and scat on

00:55:40.400 the ground.

00:55:41.380 But the experts

00:55:42.500 probably know who

00:55:43.400 does what, and who

00:55:44.220 knows what, and

00:55:45.080 what the spies are

00:55:46.740 saying, and who's

00:55:48.940 threatened what, and

00:55:49.900 who's capable, and

00:55:50.740 who's incompetent, and 0.84

00:55:51.660 who's sick, and who's 0.81

00:55:52.500 crazy.

00:55:53.240 So the level of what

00:55:54.400 they know about the

00:55:55.160 world is so different

00:55:56.520 that predicting is

00:55:58.820 ridiculous, because

00:56:00.480 we're not using any

00:56:01.320 real information.

00:56:02.200 We're using

00:56:02.760 information that's

00:56:03.500 been given to us,

00:56:04.300 which is intentionally

00:56:05.780 fake information.

00:56:07.840 So I do see it

00:56:12.760 escalating, but here's

00:56:14.000 my take.

00:56:15.800 If you assume it's an

00:56:17.180 economic war, which is

00:56:18.860 what I assume, and if

00:56:21.000 you assume that the

00:56:21.720 people are waging this

00:56:22.600 economic war, economic

00:56:23.940 war in the sense that we

00:56:25.560 want to sell weapons and

00:56:26.840 we want to get control of

00:56:28.080 Russia's energy, or get 0.99

00:56:30.020 them out of the energy

00:56:30.760 business so we have the

00:56:31.960 market, so it's economic

00:56:33.660 in the sense of selling

00:56:34.760 weapons and protecting

00:56:36.460 our energy industry.

00:56:40.320 So, under those

00:56:43.420 conditions, if that's

00:56:45.900 who's really in charge,

00:56:47.020 the people who are just

00:56:47.740 trying to make money,

00:56:49.040 would they allow a

00:56:50.480 nuclear war, like an 0.82

00:56:52.240 actual World War III?

00:56:53.600 And I think the answer

00:56:54.680 is no, because that

00:56:56.380 would be uneconomical.

00:56:58.540 What's economical is a

00:57:00.320 forever war in Afghanistan

00:57:01.880 and a forever war in

00:57:03.040 Iraq, a forever war in 0.97

00:57:05.020 Ukraine that always goes 1.00

00:57:06.940 up to the level of using

00:57:08.280 heavy equipment, but not

00:57:10.300 to the level of using

00:57:11.180 anything nuclear, because

00:57:12.400 it wouldn't make sense.

00:57:13.700 Yeah, Syria, maybe,

00:57:14.800 Lebanon, maybe, I don't

00:57:15.700 know.

00:57:16.660 Not Lebanon. 1.00

00:57:19.620 Never mind.

00:57:23.580 Why am I blanking on

00:57:25.120 Gaddafi's country?

00:57:27.440 Gaddafi was Libya, yeah.

00:57:32.480 Not Lebanon, Libya. 0.98

00:57:39.840 Yeah, growing the empire

00:57:41.340 is economical.

00:57:43.080 Growing the empire is

00:57:44.240 economical, that's true, but

00:57:46.020 the Americans are not trying

00:57:47.260 to grow the empire, except

00:57:50.460 controlling the energy

00:57:51.800 resources, I suppose.

00:57:52.880 So, here's my prediction.

00:57:58.000 The people who have the

00:57:59.100 most control over what

00:58:01.260 happens in Ukraine do not 0.98

00:58:03.580 want it to become a World

00:58:05.080 War III.

00:58:06.200 They want it to be largely

00:58:08.660 the way it is, and a little

00:58:10.400 bit more of the way it is.

00:58:12.140 That would be the bit.

00:58:12.920 If you're going to follow

00:58:13.840 the money, that's what the

00:58:14.900 money suggests.

00:58:15.960 If there was money in a

00:58:19.100 nuclear war or a World War 0.75

00:58:20.560 War III, we would 0.96

00:58:22.020 absolutely have it.

00:58:23.920 But I don't think anybody

00:58:24.920 sees there's a way to make

00:58:25.980 money doing that.

00:58:27.220 It doesn't make sense.

00:58:30.820 Yeah, I think we want

00:58:31.900 another 20-year war.

00:58:33.020 That's right.

00:58:34.020 I think every war has to be

00:58:35.260 20 years now.

00:58:41.960 We can treat our reality as

00:58:43.680 subjective and get good

00:58:44.760 outcomes.

00:58:45.980 Well, let's try that.

00:58:46.840 Afghanistan was an 1.00

00:58:51.220 occupation, not a war.

00:58:52.440 Yeah, I guess so.

00:58:54.380 All right, if you haven't

00:58:55.180 seen the clips coming out

00:58:56.800 from my conversation with

00:58:59.000 Megyn Kelly, there are quite

00:59:00.920 a few clips, and I'll

00:59:04.260 recommend you to it because

00:59:05.580 people say it was awesome.

00:59:07.700 You can just Google my name

00:59:08.900 and her name.

00:59:09.440 It'll pop right up.

00:59:10.100 A lot of people, and even

00:59:17.140 the comments, are saying

00:59:18.000 it's a great interview.

00:59:19.840 I don't know why it was

00:59:20.800 great, honestly, because I

00:59:22.460 have this thing called

00:59:23.440 interview amnesia.

00:59:26.740 The moment I'm done with an

00:59:28.060 interview, even if it's like

00:59:29.300 an hour and a half, which is

00:59:30.960 typical, I don't remember a

00:59:32.880 thing.

00:59:33.940 I have complete amnesia, and

00:59:35.600 then somebody will say, oh,

00:59:36.480 that was a good one, and I'll

00:59:37.500 have to think, really?

00:59:38.260 Like, I don't know.

00:59:39.540 I don't remember it.

00:59:40.860 I tell you, yeah, I remember

00:59:41.860 the person, and I remember

00:59:45.680 how I felt, and I might

00:59:47.760 remember sort of generally

00:59:48.860 what topics were covered, but

00:59:50.620 I don't remember specific

00:59:51.640 things I said, so I don't

00:59:53.180 have the same kind of memory

00:59:54.180 you have when you watch it.

01:00:00.200 Somebody's saying I had no

01:00:01.300 pauses before answering

01:00:02.500 questions.

01:00:03.220 Well, it probably helps that I

01:00:06.640 do this every day.

01:00:08.260 And I think that what makes

01:00:12.900 me like a podcast or an

01:00:15.380 interview is how casual the

01:00:19.180 people talking are.

01:00:21.120 To me, that tends to be the

01:00:22.340 most predictive part.

01:00:23.940 If somebody's just a talking

01:00:25.280 head, and they've got to sell

01:00:26.300 something to their corporate

01:00:27.400 bosses, and they're like, well,

01:00:29.860 here's my prepared speech, which

01:00:31.520 I've said seven times already, and

01:00:33.660 let me say this.

01:00:35.620 Yeah, I'm bored.

01:00:37.780 But if I see, if you see Joe

01:00:40.140 Rogan, for example, when Joe

01:00:41.620 Rogan is interviewing people, it's

01:00:43.560 more like a conversation.

01:00:45.420 So if you tune in and you're like

01:00:47.020 in the middle of a conversation

01:00:48.120 between a couple of smart people,

01:00:50.460 that'll just glue you right there. 0.95

01:00:52.880 But as soon as one of those is just

01:00:54.400 like a suited puppet, you can tell

01:00:59.340 in a heartbeat.

01:01:06.360 You said Ukraine would win? 0.96

01:01:09.360 No, I didn't.

01:01:11.520 What does win mean?

01:01:12.600 You mean win as in conquer Russia?

01:01:17.860 Pretty sure I didn't say that.

01:01:19.600 No, I said Ukraine would not be 0.99

01:01:21.320 conquered, which it has not been.

01:01:25.840 So one of my best predictions.

01:01:30.740 But no, I don't know what win would

01:01:33.000 look like.

01:01:34.200 Win is, I think, your own word.

01:01:36.520 I'm just saying that they would be

01:01:37.820 difficult to conquer, which they were.

01:01:39.480 Did you know about Dr. Shiva's

01:01:44.780 lawsuit that showed a backdoor?

01:01:49.740 I mean, I don't know if that's

01:01:52.740 still relevant under the Musk domain.

01:01:58.600 Wagner did not recruit murderers.

01:02:01.000 Well, that one guy thinks he's a

01:02:02.660 murderer, and he thinks they recruited

01:02:04.400 him.

01:02:09.480 Yeah, at times it looks like they're

01:02:13.620 winning, but there was no way to

01:02:15.700 know, right?

01:02:22.980 Do you think Russell Brand will go

01:02:25.120 harder at the bad guys now that

01:02:28.720 he's taken heat?

01:02:31.280 I feel like he might.

01:02:33.420 It might be better to go through it

01:02:35.100 than around it.

01:02:35.780 You purchased your, it's the first

01:02:44.280 book you ever bought?

01:02:45.960 Well, I hope you read it.

01:02:55.180 Best tactic is to go harder?

01:02:57.020 Maybe so.

01:03:02.000 J6 discussion?

01:03:02.920 Oh, yeah.

01:03:04.700 So, I tried to go on the spaces

01:03:09.860 feature on X yesterday, and I was

01:03:13.000 trying to encourage anybody who

01:03:15.420 believed that January 6th was an

01:03:17.100 actual insurrection to help me

01:03:20.040 understand how trespassing eventually

01:03:23.220 leads to controlling our nuclear

01:03:25.360 arsenal.

01:03:26.820 Like, how do you connect those dots?

01:03:29.340 And what I found was that I couldn't

01:03:31.100 get anybody to even engage in the

01:03:32.780 conversation.

01:03:33.920 I got one guy who'd come on and just

01:03:36.480 yell at me for being a bad person.

01:03:39.660 That was it.

01:03:40.640 I could not get anybody to even talk

01:03:43.620 about the concept unless they were

01:03:45.800 already agreeing with me, in which case

01:03:47.460 there was no point to it.

01:03:48.900 So, you can see why the Democrats need to

01:03:58.840 get rid of free speech.

01:04:00.700 That one question of how trespassing gets

01:04:03.720 you control of the nuclear arsenal is the

01:04:08.080 end of the entire hoax.

01:04:10.560 So, so far, there's always a tentpole

01:04:12.920 hoax for every election cycle.

01:04:15.520 So, the tentpole hoax that makes all the

01:04:18.380 other hoaxes look believable is that

01:04:21.300 January 6th was an insurrection, and

01:04:24.080 that's what Trump intended.

01:04:27.200 Now, after he's, let's say he gets

01:04:30.780 elected and serves another four years, and

01:04:34.040 then at the end of the four years he

01:04:35.340 retires, because that's what people do.

01:04:37.860 So, what are the Democrats going to say

01:04:41.120 if he just quietly retires after eight

01:04:44.400 years like Americans do? 0.91

01:04:46.400 Are they going to say, well, we were

01:04:47.840 probably wrong before, yeah, he's not

01:04:51.920 trying to be a dictator, or are they

01:04:54.040 going to say, well, he was definitely

01:04:55.680 trying to be a dictator before, but I

01:04:58.320 guess he decided it didn't work, so he's

01:05:00.260 not going to do it.

01:05:00.880 All right.

01:05:06.880 Biden-Fetterman for 2024.

01:05:12.240 So, what I found was that on X, I

01:05:15.480 apparently have close to zero real

01:05:18.280 Democrat exposure.

01:05:21.080 I have only people who appear to be

01:05:23.340 just trolls, like they don't seem to be

01:05:25.640 even engaged in real topics.

01:05:27.340 So, how did that happen?

01:05:30.500 I feel like it's worse.

01:05:33.120 My experience on X is much better,

01:05:35.840 because I don't have all the

01:05:36.960 criticism, but I'm completely cut off

01:05:40.860 from anybody in half of the country.

01:05:44.020 They have no exposure to my tweets,

01:05:45.620 even accidentally, I think, because

01:05:47.980 they certainly don't comment on them.

01:05:50.360 And even when I do the spaces, which

01:05:52.140 I thought would be opening it up to

01:05:53.780 more people, I feel like only my

01:05:56.980 followers even see the spaces being

01:05:59.160 advertised.

01:06:05.900 Now, there's a Twitch streamer.

01:06:08.680 No.

01:06:09.920 Everybody bails out when they think

01:06:11.740 that they're going to talk to

01:06:12.640 somebody who knows what their, you

01:06:14.400 know, has a good argument.

01:06:15.180 I don't know if I'm shadow banned,

01:06:22.180 or the algorithm just only delivers me

01:06:25.200 to people who might like me,

01:06:26.700 which ends up being very similar.

01:06:31.000 Does Elon following me matter?

01:06:33.160 I don't know.

01:06:33.960 All right.

01:06:48.920 Are you still left to Bernie?

01:06:53.700 That's no fun, that question.

01:06:57.420 All right.

01:06:58.080 All right.

01:06:58.120 That's all I got for today.

01:07:00.760 I'm going to go do something else.

01:07:03.680 And, oh, well, I'm glad you like me.

01:07:07.060 I'm sure I like you back.

01:07:09.220 You're awesome.

01:07:10.360 And I think all of you are going to

01:07:11.560 have a wonderful time today.

01:07:12.800 If you haven't already seen my book,

01:07:14.260 Reframe Your Brain, it's the best book

01:07:15.800 in the world.

01:07:17.240 Literally the most improvement you could

01:07:19.640 have in your life with the least amount

01:07:21.060 of work.

01:07:22.800 That's the way I like it.

01:07:24.160 All right.

01:07:24.620 That's all for now.

01:07:25.280 I'll talk to you later, YouTubers. 0.97

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - October 01, 2023

Episode 2248 Scott Adams： All Of The News Is Confusing And Fake But The Coffee Is Delicious

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