Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2255 Scott Adams： Coffee With Scott

00:00:00.000 working. Well, well, well, it might be working.

00:00:08.740 Can everybody hear me on your various platforms here today? I don't see anybody complaining

00:00:18.280 about the sound yet. I think I upgraded the sound. It should be better today. All right.

00:00:25.860 All right. How would you like to take your experience up to levels which have never been

00:00:32.940 seen before? Well, all you need is a cup or mug or a glass of tanker, chalice, and a canteen

00:00:39.080 jug or flask of a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee.

00:00:43.980 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine. At the end of the day, the

00:00:47.300 thing that makes everything better. It's called the simultaneous sip. It happens now. Go.

00:00:55.860 Ah. Now, before we get into all the ugliness, because, of course, we're going to talk about

00:01:05.020 Israel. I have a few topics before that. But I wanted to share with you something I shared

00:01:10.240 in the man cave last night with my subscribers on Locals. It's the difference between wanting

00:01:17.540 something and deciding. And you'll see this distinction in a lot of places, and it's really

00:01:23.660 important to have. When you want something, you can see the pluses and the minuses of going

00:01:30.540 after it. But you're seeing the minuses pretty strongly. And you say to yourself, ah, you know,

00:01:36.500 I tried to do something, but it was hard, so I gave up. But when you decide to do something,

00:01:42.800 it doesn't matter how hard it will be, because you've already decided.

00:01:46.300 And I noted there was an example of that, as I'm playing with my technology here, I wanted

00:01:53.840 to be able to livestream on multiple platforms using third-party software. But the first several

00:02:03.360 times I tried it, I probably tried it, I don't know, five to ten times. And always I ran into

00:02:10.100 some problem or complication. And I said, ugh, it's too much. Too much work, too many problems,

00:02:16.700 not going to do it. So that's when I wanted to do it. I kept running into a problem and quitting.

00:02:23.100 For years, actually. Every now and then I just keep trying. But after YouTube did the last set of

00:02:31.640 sketchy things, now I don't know what's real and what they're doing or what I just imagine they're

00:02:36.360 doing. But whatever it was, it was sort of the, it was the too far level. And then I decided.

00:02:45.300 And it's amazing how easy things are when you decide. Because the problems don't look like

00:02:50.960 problems anymore. They look like something you're going to solve. So as soon as I decided

00:02:56.900 that no matter what it took, no matter how hard it was, no matter how embarrassing or frustrated

00:03:04.240 it became, I was going to make it work on multiple platforms, which it is right now. And it's just

00:03:11.740 astonishing how easy it became. As soon as I realized that there was no alternative, I had

00:03:17.720 already decided. And then I just knock up the problems or, you know, line up the problems and

00:03:23.160 just knock them down. So today I probably solved the sound problem. I turned up my light a little bit.

00:03:29.100 I've got another camera ordered. I've got to do laptop ordered. So I'll have a better resolution

00:03:34.100 to the camera. So there's nothing that will stop me at this point. And so my advice to you

00:03:40.180 is that when you find a situation and you're having trouble with it, ask yourself this. Is it something

00:03:47.900 you want? Or is it something you decided? And then you'll know what's going to happen. You can predict

00:03:54.320 your own actions after that point. All right. Here's some fun stuff that we'll talk about Israel.

00:04:02.380 There's a new app that lets you see the Greek ruins like the Parthenon as they were before they were

00:04:10.420 ruined. So you hold your phone up and, you know, with your eyes, you're seeing behind it the real

00:04:16.280 ruins. But whatever you're pointing at, the app will turn it into the original version.

00:04:23.160 How cool is that? Imagine that being everywhere where you can walk down any town. You could just

00:04:31.480 hold your phone up and maybe dial it in to see what it looked like at any time in history. It's like,

00:04:37.400 what did this look like 500 years ago? Oh, wow. Cool. Now that is a cool app. I'm all about that.

00:04:45.900 Another application I saw that blew my mind, but I'm having trouble believing it. So Brian

00:04:54.640 Romelli took advantage of, and this is so clever, it just kills me. I wish I'd thought of it.

00:05:01.920 He took AI, the large language model versions of AI, which is good at recognizing patterns of words

00:05:10.780 and knowing what would come next in a certain pattern. And he applied it to redacted confidential

00:05:18.340 documents. You know, the kind where half of the page is redacted, you know, it's covered up with black.

00:05:24.280 And the AI apparently can accurately tell what's covered up because of the pattern of the other words

00:05:34.480 that are not covered up. Apparently he's done numerous tests and he says we're in an all new world.

00:05:45.460 Now, there are two parts to the story. Number one is that security and privacy may have been

00:05:54.540 breached. So it might not be useful to have redacted things, but there's a way bigger

00:06:01.720 thing to the story. How in the world does it know what those words are that are covered up

00:06:08.880 by the other words that are not even in the same sentence, apparently? Because I don't

00:06:15.340 think you could tell from the sentence itself. You probably have to tell from all the other words

00:06:20.500 around it. That says something about human intelligence that you're not going to want

00:06:26.820 to think about for too long. Because it certainly suggests that we're programmed and there's not

00:06:33.320 much free will going on. If you can tell from the words you can see what must have been the words

00:06:40.300 that you can't see, then how much free will did you have? It's just something to think about.

00:06:47.460 All right. Governor Newsom declined or rejected a law that would have made psychedelics decriminalized.

00:06:58.040 So, are you surprised? Governor Newsom of California, very progressive place. And he turned down a new law

00:07:09.560 that would have decriminalized psychedelics. Now, I did not see his reason for why, but I'm going to speculate.

00:07:17.120 It was probably just the details. There was probably something in the law that's not obvious

00:07:23.200 that was, you know, unacceptable. So, I don't think he turned it down because he has a problem.

00:07:30.000 I'm just guessing. It's just speculating. I doubt he has a problem with the risk and benefits of

00:07:37.160 psychedelics. Because I'm sure he's pretty well informed. And I believe that the support for it

00:07:42.740 is something like 60%. And in California, it's probably higher. So, it's weird that he would do that

00:07:50.300 while we imagine he might want to be president because the public likes that one. They like it to be

00:07:56.660 decriminalized. So, I'm going to say it could be Big Pharma. It's possible Big Pharma got to him.

00:08:03.700 But I think it's slightly more likely there was something wrong with the law. There might have been a

00:08:08.480 poison pill in there. Something else that they wanted that he didn't think was cool. So, keep an open mind on that.

00:08:14.640 I just don't believe that Newsom would have said no to psychedelics, given what we all know about them

00:08:21.620 at this point. It had to be a trick. All right. China's Communist Party has expelled the former

00:08:30.900 chairman of the state-owned Bank of China for being a big old criminal scumbag and doing lots of illegal 0.98

00:08:37.220 things. So, that was the state-owned Bank of China. They had a vote, was a crook. And so, they just 0.99

00:08:45.080 kicked him out of the Communist Party. How bad are things in China? I feel like China is so corrupt

00:08:54.440 that, I don't know, how can they possibly go forward? I feel like corruption alone would just

00:09:03.080 kill them. I just don't know how they could compete with us. Not that we don't have any corruption, but

00:09:08.260 it seems more rampant there. Now, I've got a prediction, and this is also a test. It's a prediction

00:09:18.540 slash public test. As you know, there were some prominent deaths recently in the United States

00:09:26.380 of people who had criticized me on the X platform not long before they died. One was murdered with

00:09:36.240 guns, another murdered with knives. Now, of course, I don't think there's any causality there,

00:09:44.180 just a weird coincidence. But you never know, so let's test it. So, I'm predicting that President

00:09:51.800 Xi of China is going to have a major health issue in the next six months. Major health issue,

00:09:59.760 President Xi in the next six months. Because I think the level of stress that President Xi

00:10:07.700 is experiencing is probably unlike anything he's ever experienced. And that's pretty predictive

00:10:13.620 of bad health. So, we'll see. Am I psychic? Am I causing things to happen by my

00:10:21.660 mental telekinesis? Well, let's find out. If President Xi goes down in the next six months,

00:10:28.520 I'm not predicting his death. I'm only predicting a major health problem. So, we'll see.

00:10:38.680 All right. So, you know, our borders are basically open at the southern border. Well,

00:10:45.320 everywhere, I guess. The borders are basically open. And guess how many people that are categorized

00:10:52.620 as special interest aliens? No, not the kind from other planets, but the people illegally coming 1.00

00:11:00.560 into the country. How many are called special interest aliens, meaning they came from someplace

00:11:07.480 that has such a high terrorism rate that we would not normally let them in the country at all?

00:11:15.280 People who would be too dangerous to be let in the country, 86,000 of them in the last two years. 0.99

00:11:23.840 86,000 in the last two years. How many fighters have attacked Israel in the last day or so?

00:11:33.320 About 1,000. So, about 1,000 people is throwing Israel into chaos. But 86,000 people, any one of them 0.97

00:11:44.960 who could have been terrorists, have come across our border in the last two years. Do you think

00:11:50.300 they're organized? Do you think that there's any large group of people who came here specifically

00:11:57.360 to be sleepers until it was time to go? How could they not, really? It's really hard for me to imagine

00:12:07.380 a scenario in which there are not at least a few thousand people who are here to destroy the country.

00:12:14.320 There's no way to know. But wouldn't it be weird if out of 86,000 people who all came from countries 0.99

00:12:20.960 who are high likelihood of wanting to destroy the United States? And you think that none of them

00:12:27.040 are terrorists? I would think it's thousands. We may have thousands of people who are just waiting

00:12:35.160 for the signal. Now, how much damage could thousands of people do if they were among the public

00:12:41.480 and they just wanted to go out and do whatever the worst terrorist thing, you know, an individual

00:12:45.920 could do. Pretty bad. Pretty bad. If they're smart and organized. All right.

00:12:56.580 Mike Zirnovich pointed out that in a tweet, he just said, I think it was today,

00:13:02.040 and like that, no other social media platform is relevant, only X. You know, that's exactly what

00:13:08.300 my experience was. I looked at the news, but the news appears to be behind

00:13:14.700 the social media platforms. And so I could just stay on the social media, and if it pointed

00:13:22.120 to a news thing I wanted to see, I could just go see it. But you don't really get a sense

00:13:28.120 of what's going on by looking at the news sites today. You really would have to get, you know,

00:13:33.620 the whole lay of the land from social media. So this is a really, let's say, a clarifying

00:13:41.920 day for our media enterprises. Because we no longer have regular reporting like we used

00:13:48.140 to. The citizen reporting and the citizen videos are most of the story. So basically,

00:13:55.500 if you have what the government is telling you, press releases, and then you have video

00:14:00.220 on the ground, you're 80% of the news right there. The other 20%, I'm not even sure we'll

00:14:07.780 see any other 20%. It's going to be what the governments tell you, and then what the video

00:14:12.940 shows you of the people who are actually there. And that's about all we'll know.

00:14:18.960 Well, anyway, the big shocking part of the Israel situation, now being attacked directly by Hamas, 0.88

00:14:30.000 is that it's a pretty good preview of America. So if you were to say, what's the root cause

00:14:37.780 of why Israel's at war? The root cause is that one group has been trained that another group has

00:14:47.260 their stuff, and they need to give it back at any cost. Right? One part of the population in that

00:14:56.020 part of the world has been trained that the other part has their stuff, and that the other part are

00:15:03.620 not as worthy as you are, because they're oppressors. Now, let me say, because I know there are going to

00:15:12.300 be people on both sides of things, there are going to be people on both sides of things, of course,

00:15:18.400 there's a story in the other direction. Right? We're not going to do, I'm not going to do who's

00:15:23.440 equivalent, and who's worse than who. All right? I'm not going to do that. I don't do that. Let's just

00:15:30.360 say there are some things that have happened in the Middle East, in the last few thousand years,

00:15:35.620 they're not exactly what you wish would have happened, and maybe you wouldn't have done it that way.

00:15:40.420 But it is what it is at this point. You know, we're starting from this point. So there are two

00:15:45.480 groups that have stories about each other. But the more alarming story is that one has a story

00:15:51.300 that they must go get their stuff back. And specifically, their stuff is their land and

00:15:57.240 whatever wealth they would have had if they'd stayed on their land. That would be their version.

00:16:03.740 But of course, Israel has its own versions. To me, this looks exactly like what we're heading toward, 0.98

00:16:10.380 because CRT and ESG and DEI are teaching Americans that one group of Americans has the stuff that they

00:16:21.200 stole from the other group of Americans. What's the logical outcome of that? It's Israel. It's where 0.99

00:16:29.060 one group gets militarized and tries to destroy the other group. I don't know how it could go any other

00:16:35.220 way. Could it? If one group is continually propagandized, that there's a there's a group

00:16:43.840 nearby, like walking distance, there's another group that's within walking distance, and they have

00:16:49.880 all your stuff. And they're bad, and they're oppressors, and they stole it. Right. So you're

00:16:55.640 going to watch Israel do, probably, the only thing you can do in that situation that makes sense. 0.85

00:17:03.320 You have to get away from those people who want bad things to happen to you. Now, that doesn't mean

00:17:09.940 that every person who's, you know, not an Israeli citizen, it doesn't mean that most or even any of

00:17:17.920 them are bad. It just means that it's a population you can't live next to, because there's a very

00:17:24.380 predictable outcome. So my guess is that Gaza will have to be at least dominated and occupied forever, and maybe 0.65

00:17:36.120 even eliminated. Not in terms of the people, but eliminated in terms of a real estate destination, place

00:17:44.120 that people live. So they might be expelled. I think the whole thing will be turned into more of a prison

00:17:52.160 camp than it already is. You know, some have said there are only two exits from Gaza. One of them is

00:18:00.080 heavily guarded by Israel, apparently not as heavily guarded as it could be. And the other is heavily

00:18:05.420 guarded by Egypt, and neither of them are friendly in a complete way. So some have said that Gaza is

00:18:14.580 already a prison camp. I think it'll become more of one. So that would be the obvious, the obvious way that

00:18:25.480 Israel is going to go. It will degrade the leadership there and their military assets, and then it will just

00:18:30.980 take complete control. And it will live with that, whatever that looks like, because there's no other choice.

00:18:37.700 I've heard some people who are angry today say that Israel should just basically wipe out

00:18:44.020 all the people in Gaza. But let me remind you, there is one country on earth that can't really do a 0.97

00:18:54.700 holocaust on somebody else, right? Israel is not going to perpetuate an actual holocaust on other people.

00:19:03.380 They can't, right? Now, maybe physically they could, but there's no way Israel would ever survive as a viable 1.00

00:19:12.800 country if they invalidated the primary software upon which Israel was founded, which is, you know, never again

00:19:22.220 you can't have another holocaust. Now, obviously, they're trying to prevent a holocaust on themselves. That's the 0.95

00:19:29.700 number one thing that they're fighting to prevent right now. But they can't defend themselves by

00:19:36.340 creating a holocaust on somebody else. There's no way that's a survivable situation for anybody. So 0.94

00:19:44.420 they don't have that option. And maybe that's good. You know, some of you are going to argue with me, but

00:19:50.020 it's not really an option. But they do have an option of closing up Gaza forever and just saying, hey, 0.78

00:19:57.060 we can't make this our problem. Yeah, good luck. So I think that's what's going to happen.

00:20:04.740 Here's the update. I've heard some estimates of 600 dead in Israel.

00:20:11.460 Can we be perfectly matter of fact about the real world without the bullshit? Let me give you some 0.99

00:20:19.260 real world truth. If all 600 of those people were adult males,

00:20:26.940 it would look like a Tuesday.

00:20:29.900 Right? 600 adult males dying for anything, whether it's war or anything else. We just don't get that worked up about

00:20:38.060 because we're used to it. And men are seemingly more expendable. Like just psychologically,

00:20:45.820 we're used to sending young men to war and them not coming back.

00:20:50.860 However, that's not what's happening in this situation. By now, have you all seen the video of the

00:20:58.700 Israeli woman who was either unconscious or dead and nearly naked in the back of a truck with the

00:21:05.980 Hamas fighters? Have you all seen that video? Some say she's German.

00:21:13.980 Some say she's a German Jew, I'm saying here. Well, regardless, 1.00

00:21:20.300 regardless, that video is going to have an effect. And we've seen other videos that appear to show

00:21:27.980 hostages being taken, which include women.

00:21:30.780 And there might be some children, but I haven't seen any, you know, confirmed reports. Now, first,

00:21:37.020 first thing is, don't believe any videos you see coming out of this situation. Don't believe

00:21:43.660 any videos you see. Right? So, you know, we're definitely going to get pranked and hoaxed

00:21:51.900 by a number of videos. Some of them will be older ones. Right now, there's an older video

00:21:57.020 of Iran chanting death to America, which yesterday I heard was them doing it right now. And then today 0.80

00:22:06.220 I find out, oh, no, that's old videos three years ago. So just be careful. There's going to be a video

00:22:12.780 of other wars that people try to tell you is this one. And there will be videos of very old stuff that

00:22:18.700 they try to tell you is happening now. But here's the point. If the way that people come to think of

00:22:26.540 this is that the Hamas came over and kidnapped and raped women and took them back as hostages,

00:22:37.900 all the rules are gone. So let me say this as clearly as possible. I'm not I'm not telling you

00:22:44.540 my preference. This is not my preference. I'm just telling you as a basic matter of human nature

00:22:50.940 that when you if you were killing a whole bunch of adult men, both sides might be able to work that

00:22:58.060 out. Like later, they could maybe potentially maybe not these two sides. But as a general statement,

00:23:04.220 if two sides have killed a bunch of men on each side, mostly men, you can get over it. But if Hamas came in 0.90

00:23:13.100 and took women, whether they were citizens or soldiers or not, we're not going to look at that the same.

00:23:20.460 That is now a whole different thing. And when you reach that level of risk and that level of evil

00:23:32.780 and self-defense is involved for Israel, here's what you need to know. There are no rules in self-defense.

00:23:41.100 And what these latest videos and the actions of Hamas have done have removed any reason for Israel to act 0.68

00:23:52.380 morally or ethically based on somebody else's opinion of what is moral or ethical.

00:23:58.060 They have complete freedom now, except for a Holocaust, right? They can't do something that 0.98

00:24:03.100 definitely looks like a Holocaust. There's no way they can do that. But they can do what they need to do. 0.94

00:24:11.260 Whatever that is, short of the Holocaust. And it's not going to be pretty. So I would say that, 0.86

00:24:19.020 you know, of course, international law is a big factor. And if you violate it, you might have to pay.

00:24:26.620 But they're not going to have to worry about their moral or ethical standing anymore.

00:24:32.220 That question has been answered. If your women and children are going to be dragged away to be raped, 0.99

00:24:38.540 if you act in this way, and maybe less likely if you act in this way, you don't have to wonder which way it's 0.98

00:24:45.740 going to go, right? You don't have to wonder which way it's going to go. Once Hamas brought women into 1.00

00:24:53.900 the equation, there's only one way it goes, which is Israel is going to solve this,

00:25:00.940 whatever it takes, short of the Holocaust. They won't do that. 0.68

00:25:03.820 But I do think they'll turn Gaza into a permanent prison camp, basically. 0.96

00:25:13.260 You know, they won't present it that way, but that's basically what it's going to be.

00:25:17.100 And it has to be. I don't see any option, do you? Does anybody see any alternative? It's not like

00:25:24.380 you can make peace. So if making peace isn't one of the options, and the Holocaust isn't one of the 0.79

00:25:30.940 options, there is only one thing that can and will happen. Am I wrong? If you're wondering where this

00:25:39.500 will end up, why are you even wondering that? It's not going to end up as a Holocaust. They're not

00:25:47.580 going to be able to really to bulldoze it, because there's no place for the people to go.

00:25:51.900 They might prefer to do that, but they're not going to do it. So my guess is that Israel just got a lot 0.94

00:25:58.940 bigger. And that's not a bad strategy for Israel. If every time Israel is attacked, you know, let's

00:26:05.980 say a big serious attack, they simply take the land of the attackers. It's a pretty good national 0.99

00:26:14.780 strategy for growth. So there's that. All right. I did see that video from the leader of Iran saying

00:26:28.220 that that sole death to America really only applies to the leaders. It doesn't apply to the people.

00:26:34.860 They don't have a beef with the people, only the leaders, which is actually not that different than

00:26:39.580 what we say here about the Iranian people. Iranian people are awesome. I don't know if you know any,

00:26:46.860 but if you ever want to meet some awesome people, the Persians slash Iranians, great people. You'll be 1.00

00:26:54.700 very happy if you make the acquaintance of any. I recommend it. So it's actually not about the

00:27:03.180 people. The people in America don't have any beef with the people in Iran, and maybe it's the same way.

00:27:09.580 Back. That's a very interesting situation. All right. But it does make me wonder if Israel has now a 0.92

00:27:21.500 free shot at the president of Iran, whose name I'm trying to avoid saying, because I can never get,

00:27:27.980 I can never keep straight my Khomeini's and my Kamanis and Kamanis. How do you say his name?

00:27:34.780 The Ayatollahs? Oh, well, they do have a president, but they also have an Ayatollah. That's correct.

00:27:43.900 The Ayatollah's in charge. What's the

00:27:46.460 death conversion for infidels? Yeah. That's only Ali Khamenei. Thank you. Is that Khamenei? Is that the 0.97

00:28:02.940 pronunciation? Or is it Khamenei? It's Khamenei? All right. Well, I'll have to learn that in the next few days.

00:28:11.580 But would you say that Israel has a free pass to take out the leadership of Iran?

00:28:19.340 I think so. Now, the only reason not to do it would be strategic.

00:28:25.260 Yeah. It would be strategic. But let me be very clear. If this were America,

00:28:32.220 and we knew that there was an individual who was primarily involved in funding it, 1.00

00:28:36.540 we would kill him. You think we would care that he's the head of another country? 0.90

00:28:43.340 No. We'd kill him right away. If there were boots on the ground on our homeland, 1.00

00:28:51.100 like actually armed people running around gunning down our citizens, and we knew where the person with 0.99

00:28:58.140 the wall it was, no, we would kill him right away. I hope so. Don't you? Do you think we would 0.99

00:29:05.340 hesitate to kill him if we knew that he was a cause of boots on the ground? Now, it's different if 0.97

00:29:12.060 there's not boots on the ground, right? If stuff is blowing up, you're like, we'd sure like to kill

00:29:18.540 this guy, but it's going to cause more trouble than it's worth. But at the moment, what would be more

00:29:23.660 trouble than a war on your territory, which is what Israel is experiencing? It can't get worse.

00:29:31.420 Can it? So I've got a feeling that Israel is going to first get rid of the immediate threat. They're 0.90

00:29:40.620 going to chase down the people in their country. Then they're going to lock down Hamas after 0.92

00:29:47.340 killing as many of them in place as they can. They're going to put a wall around it. And then I think 0.99

00:29:53.020 they're going to take a run at Iran, the leadership. Because if they don't, I don't understand why

00:30:01.420 not. Because they have moral and complete, it's pronounced, Khameneh.

00:30:08.540 I'll go with that. All right. And again, don't assume you're seeing my opinions. Okay. I'm telling

00:30:27.340 you what seems likely, and I'm just describing it. All right. Basically, everything that's happening

00:30:33.820 there is bad. And I'm not sure that there are a lot of good guys, right? There's a lot of stuff I

00:30:40.780 could criticize everywhere. So I'm just telling you what's going to happen. You know, that taking sides

00:30:48.620 is kind of sketchy at this point, although obviously we're taking sides with Israel. But that doesn't

00:30:54.860 mean we would necessarily agree with 100% of what they do. So let me make a distinction. While I might not

00:31:03.020 agree with 100% of what Israel is about to do, I do agree that they have the ethical and moral

00:31:10.860 free pass. I might not agree with it, but I'm not going to say it's immoral or unethical.

00:31:19.100 They've got to do what they've got to do. When it comes to self-defense,

00:31:22.140 you do what you've got to do. And that's the situation you're in.

00:31:30.780 The chat. You see a lot of crazy chat people? Well, here's the first thing I would ask everybody

00:31:36.780 to do. Try to dial down your bloodlust a little bit. Because I feel like the bloodlust isn't helping

00:31:45.500 anybody. So even if you think it's the only solution, just remember that word solution.

00:31:54.780 It's got two meanings. So don't do the bad one. All right, let's talk about the

00:32:02.060 conspiracy theories. Number one, do you think any of this was a diversion from Ukraine,

00:32:13.980 or a recognition that Ukraine wasn't going to be the big old wallet that it used to be

00:32:20.220 for the military industrial complex? Do you think they're connected?

00:32:23.900 I'm going to say no. They're connected because all the news is connected. But I don't think

00:32:31.900 they're connected strategically or that anybody had a plan. I'm not seeing enough to suggest that

00:32:40.940 these are connected, except that they're big events, so one will distract from the other,

00:32:45.740 etc. But think about what happened since a week ago. A week ago, Ukraine had this unlimited money

00:32:55.820 flow from the United States, which is now at least temporarily stopped, because they don't have any

00:33:01.100 ability. Congress doesn't have the ability to do anything, because they don't have a speaker. So they

00:33:05.980 don't have access to money. And they were just pushed completely off the headlines in terms of

00:33:11.100 attention. So they just lost all of their attention and all of their money. Now, who would have been

00:33:21.180 able to predict that attention would be taken away? Russia. Russia could predict it. Do you think Russia 1.00

00:33:32.380 is helping to start trouble in other places? Because it would help them in Ukraine? Well, it seems like 0.77

00:33:41.980 they should be doing that. That would be an obvious play. If they can get America's money and attention to 0.87

00:33:48.540 go somewhere else, that'd be a good play. But to me, it really looks like maybe it was just the time that

00:33:56.620 they were going to do this thing anyway. So I'm not sure that Russia was behind it. But I wouldn't be

00:34:03.180 surprised if they had some encouragement about it. I don't know. But I need a fact check. Isn't Israel 1.00

00:34:11.500 good with Russia? I thought Russia tried to try to play both sides in the Middle East. Hey, we don't hate

00:34:19.740 you Palestinians. We don't hate you Israelis. So I don't see Russia as being an enemy to Israel. 0.98

00:34:29.580 I don't see Putin being an enemy to Israel. So I don't know that Putin would want to start trouble

00:34:35.500 in Israel because doesn't Putin have his own Jewish population he has to worry about? 0.50

00:34:41.900 That's the thing, right? My understanding is that Putin has always said the right things

00:34:48.700 when it comes to Jews and Israel. Because he needs to not make any more enemies.

00:34:58.460 So I'm going to say that it probably wasn't Putin. I don't think he was behind it.

00:35:03.740 Now let's talk about the six billion. Now, the smart people will tell you that even though the six billion

00:35:10.860 was earmarked for something specific, money is fungible, as we like to say, so if they got six

00:35:18.540 billion that they didn't know they were going to get, then that would free up six billion they were

00:35:23.340 planning to spend on those same things. So in theory it creates six billion, even if they don't spend

00:35:30.780 that six billion. But do you think that six billion is the reason that happened now or that it really

00:35:39.980 made any difference at all? My bet is it didn't make any difference at all, unless the point of it

00:35:47.420 was to embarrass Biden. If the point of it was to just stick a finger in Biden and say,

00:35:53.580 la la la, you're such a bad leader, you negotiated a terrible deal, your own people should get rid of you. 1.00

00:36:00.140 But why would he do that? He's going to end up with Trump. 0.92

00:36:02.540 Trump. So you wouldn't expect Iran to want to embarrass Biden because they can get what they

00:36:08.700 want from him. And Trump would probably be worse. Or whoever is the Republican.

00:36:17.180 So I'm going to say that the six billion did in fact give them more money for anything they wanted,

00:36:24.940 but probably it didn't make a difference. The GDP of Iran is around 360 billion.

00:36:35.900 They got six billion that they weren't expecting. Yeah, it's around 360 billion.

00:36:42.300 Now that's the GDP. It's not how much cash they have to spend, but it gives you a sense of scale.

00:36:48.700 The six billion is real money, but they could have done this without the extra six billion.

00:36:54.060 So how about the two-state solution? The two-state idea was that someday, should peace ever be

00:37:06.220 agreed, that Israelis and Palestinians could live side by side, having divided up the land that was

00:37:12.620 in the speech. I would say that's done. So I think Israel comes out ahead because their best

00:37:22.780 situation is to not have a two-state deal if one of the states is trying to kill them actively.

00:37:29.820 You know, if they had a real peace, then a two-state solution would be ideal. But there are too many

00:37:34.540 people within the state who want their demise and are willing to kill themselves to get it. You can't

00:37:41.100 really live next to them. So I think the idea of living next to them is over. Would you agree?

00:37:49.900 I think that forever the two-state solution of living side by side with any group that would support what

00:37:57.900 is happening, which is the attack? It's just not going to happen anymore. So there will be plenty of

00:38:08.060 Palestinians living in that area, but they just won't have their own country. There's no way that can 1.00

00:38:12.780 happen now. And so some would say that Israel's new approach to this, because it's self-defense,

00:38:22.540 it's not anything else, is sort of a get the fuck away from them. Something like that. Because it's a 0.91

00:38:31.900 group of people who have been brainwashed into thinking that they must kill the Israelis. 1.00

00:38:38.620 So if you can't defeat them, and you can't kill them all, and you can't brainwash them, and you can't, 1.00

00:38:45.820 those options do not exist, your best option is to get the fuck away from them as far as you can. 0.98

00:38:52.220 So, I mean, there's not much they can do, but they can certainly make sure that they don't have their 0.85

00:38:57.340 own country on their border. So they will definitely make sure there's never a Palestinian country 1.00

00:39:05.260 that shares a border with them. I think they'll make sure that's happening.

00:39:09.100 Now, do you think Hezbollah will get involved? I think they may have fired some missiles or

00:39:16.380 something. But is Hezbollah going to start storming across the border? So if you're not familiar with

00:39:23.500 the situation, you know, Gaza's this little band of land that has Hamas in charge. But Hezbollah is up 0.89

00:39:34.700 in Lebanon. So they're kind of surrounding Israel. And Hezbollah apparently is way more armed than Hamas.

00:39:45.260 And, you know, they always act like they're just building up their army for some eventual

00:39:50.140 big wave. What happens if it's now? If Hamas is streaming over, allegedly a thousand fighters have gotten in.

00:39:59.180 A thousand. That's a lot. And if Hezbollah comes across. And then I saw some videos that have low

00:40:10.060 credibility, but maybe that there were people in Jordan, the men who were lining up to march and to

00:40:19.980 help the Hamas attack. So could it be that what will really happen is that it will inspire the others 0.92

00:40:28.220 who wanted to attack but didn't quite have a plan to do it? Would it inspire a three-pronged attack?

00:40:35.340 And could Israel be overrun? Are there enough people all around them that even weapons won't help? 0.94

00:40:43.260 Is it going to turn into a zombie apocalypse?

00:40:52.140 Yeah. I don't think many Jordanians would do it, but you could always find some little group of people

00:40:57.100 willing to do just anything.

00:41:02.860 And then the next question is, is all of this just to make it harder for

00:41:07.340 Israel to have the Abraham Accords and to make peace with Saudi Arabia? Is all of this to keep 0.95

00:41:14.700 Saudi Arabia from making peace? You know, formal peace with Israel? Could be. Could be.

00:41:25.180 Possibly. It would make sense. So of all the conspiracy theories, that one makes the most sense.

00:41:31.740 Because the timing is suspicious. It's like, oh, really? Why now? Well, this would be the perfect

00:41:37.820 time to do it. If you wanted Israel and Saudi Arabia to have a reason not to make peace.

00:41:45.020 But I feel like the Palestinians have not read the room correctly, or Hamas at least. Because here's how 1.00

00:41:53.900 I read the room from a distance. And obviously, I have no expertise in the Middle East.

00:42:00.940 But from a distance, it looks like Saudi Arabia is just done with the Palestinian problem.

00:42:07.900 I think they're just like, you're on your own, guys. I don't think Saudi Arabia is going to blink. 1.00

00:42:13.740 Because the crown prince for whatever flaws you would like to attribute him for murdering his

00:42:19.580 critic, that's a big one. But he seems completely rational. And he seems dedicated to making Saudi

00:42:28.780 Arabia a place of peace with their neighbors. I think he's the real deal in terms of a leader

00:42:36.140 who's trying to do what makes sense and is rational and is not crazy for Saudi Arabia.

00:42:41.740 So having a leader that rational at the same time as a Netanyahu is probably the best case scenario. 0.93

00:42:50.620 Because Netanyahu is a very rational guy. You could make a deal with Netanyahu. And I think

00:42:59.260 the crown prince is likewise a very rational person who just wants what's good for his country. And what's

00:43:06.860 good for the country is that they're not at war. It's just obvious. So I think they are two people

00:43:12.140 who can make peace. Yeah, Egypt. I don't know enough about Egypt to have an opinion. But

00:43:21.980 I don't think the Abraham Accords are going to fall apart. Because I think that this attack on Israel 0.99

00:43:27.180 is so far above the line, or it's just all over the red line, that nobody's going to be confused or

00:43:38.780 not understand if Israel goes hard at it. Everybody's going to understand that. 0.93

00:43:45.100 Like, how could Saudi Arabia ever have peace while the Palestinians are making problems left and right? 1.00

00:43:52.300 We could bribe Egypt, maybe. 0.93

00:43:59.740 Well, this is also part of my larger point that Trump looks better every day. He's not in office.

00:44:08.700 How many of you have had the thought, and I know this is racist. I know this is racist. But how many

00:44:16.780 of you have had the thought that Trump was right to ban all Muslims until he could, quote,

00:44:23.100 figure out what the problem was?

00:44:28.300 Now, it's racist. It's definitely racist. But do you remember my rule about self-defense?

00:44:37.180 If you're doing it for self-defense, you can be as racist as you want.

00:44:40.460 Can I say that directly, without being canceled? I'm completely opposed to racism.

00:44:52.140 I oppose it. Certainly at an individual level, I oppose it maximally. You shouldn't be treating

00:44:59.180 people by their race or their religion or their gender, all those things. Religion, etc.

00:45:05.180 I said religion twice. However, that would apply to normal times, and that would apply to following

00:45:14.780 the law. So generally, if you break the law, you're going to have to pay for it.

00:45:21.500 That does not conflict with the fact that when it comes to self-defense, there are no rules.

00:45:28.700 If it's self-defense, you do what you have to do, and then you deal with the fallout because of it.

00:45:34.860 Now, the fallout might be you broke the law, and that's a pretty big fallout. But there's no

00:45:41.660 moral or ethical problem with being completely racist to protect yourself.

00:45:50.940 Now, you're going to say to me, Scott, what about the Japanese internment camps?

00:45:56.780 Totally evil. Would you agree? I do. Yeah, I actually know people who are in the camps.

00:46:03.500 Like, I know them personally. Spent a lot of time with them.

00:46:09.980 Totally evil. And in retrospect, in retrospect, was there any real risk?

00:46:17.100 Probably not. There was probably, you know, maybe some, but like trivial.

00:46:22.460 So the reason it looks so extra evil, the Japanese internment camps, is not just because it was racist,

00:46:32.140 super racist, but because it wasn't necessary. There was no indication it made anybody safer.

00:46:39.580 Now, that's just a gigantic fuck-up, right? That's wrong on every level. It did not make you safer. 0.91

00:46:47.900 It was super racist. And, you know, it broke the law, broke the constitution, broke everything.

00:46:55.420 Now, suppose it had kept us safer. It didn't. But suppose it had.

00:47:05.820 Well, that's where it gets complicated, doesn't it?

00:47:08.780 If there were no, as far as I know, there was nobody in the American Japanese population

00:47:15.180 who were trained to want to take stuff from the white people or, you know, the Americans, let's say, of all races.

00:47:24.940 They were not educated to be our enemies. They were never propagandized to be our enemies.

00:47:31.500 They wanted to be here. They wanted to be American. They were actually propagandized to be our friends.

00:47:38.380 And so they acted that way. Right? They wanted to be part of the melting pot.

00:47:45.740 Now, that group of people who wants to be part of the melting pot and have not been propagandized to be your enemy,

00:47:52.460 putting them in an internment camp is the height of evil. It's the height of evil.

00:47:58.540 Because you can't even imagine there's a positive element to it. There's no argument for it at all.

00:48:04.540 They've been trained to be part of the melting pot. You can't get worse than that in terms of national behavior.

00:48:13.260 However, in the Middle East, there are countries in which there are big pockets of people

00:48:19.900 who have been propagandized, brainwashed into thinking that Americans, among others, are the enemy.

00:48:29.180 Under that situation, with no regard to people's religion or their genetic makeup,

00:48:37.420 because that's not part of the question, are they part of a class of people who have been propagandized,

00:48:43.420 meaning that the only thing that's wrong with them is the lessons they've learned?

00:48:48.460 Nothing wrong with their skin color. Nothing wrong with their DNA. Nothing wrong with their chromosomes.

00:48:53.660 Right? There's nothing wrong with their culture per se, except for this specific part. 0.78

00:49:00.860 Under those conditions, can you be completely racist?

00:49:06.460 The answer is yes. Absolutely. You can be completely racist if, at the same time,

00:49:15.500 that's not the thing you're going after. Let me say that more clearly. You can be completely racist

00:49:21.740 if that's not your intention. If your intention is just self-defense, and it could be demonstrated that

00:49:29.020 there's some large percentage of the population that has been trained, actually propagandized and

00:49:35.980 trained to be your mortal enemy, yeah, you can block all of them. You can block the whole country,

00:49:42.780 even if they're all the same whatever ethnic group. No problem with that at all.

00:49:47.500 Now, if there's no law against it in the United States, let's say, then you wouldn't be breaking the law.

00:49:56.780 You would be protecting the country. You don't know how much, but some. And it would be self-defense.

00:50:05.020 Completely morally and ethically defensible.

00:50:07.500 Where it goes wrong is if you say it's all Muslim countries. Because then you've got a problem. 0.99

00:50:16.620 Because I don't believe that all Muslim countries are so similar that they would have large populations 1.00

00:50:22.620 of people trained to be our mortal enemies. I mean, if I go to, you know, any one of

00:50:31.180 X number of countries, am I going to find that everywhere? Now, you might have to say, well,

00:50:35.340 there's always one or two. But, yeah, well, you know, I know what the Koran says. But we also know

00:50:43.580 that there are a zillion perfectly good American Muslim people who are not looking to kill anybody.

00:50:52.060 Right? So it doesn't matter what the Koran says. It matters what the people believe.

00:50:56.620 And if they believe that the Koran is a book of peace, fine. That's all good. 1.00

00:51:05.660 So here's what Israel is going to teach us.

00:51:10.940 Israel is going to teach us that you should never discriminate against people for their race or

00:51:16.860 ethnicity or religion. And in fact, Israel does a real good job of being an open society

00:51:22.860 in which if you're a low risk person, they're not going to care about your religion or your ethnicity.

00:51:28.860 You just have to be a low risk situation. And they're going to teach you that if it's a high risk

00:51:36.380 situation, that your ethnicity and your religion are going to be irrelevant. And it might look like

00:51:47.020 discrimination. But that's not the intention. The intention would be just self-defense.

00:51:53.260 Now, would a lot of innocent people get killed? Yeah. In every war, lots of innocent people get killed.

00:51:58.700 Nobody likes that.

00:52:01.900 But there's also not much you can do about it. All right.

00:52:04.940 So I would say that Trump's view that in the early days after, certainly when there was a lot of

00:52:16.300 terrorism going on, his view that we should at least close the border for everybody who might be in 0.80

00:52:23.340 the category of a problem until we can figure out who really is a problem was perfectly good

00:52:31.980 commander-in-chiefing.

00:52:35.020 As commander-in-chief, that was exactly the right decision.

00:52:38.140 It was racist, but it was also allowable under that specific condition.

00:52:46.860 And by the way, just to clarify, I was completely against

00:52:50.860 the rounding up of the Japanese Americans. These are not comparable.

00:52:57.340 One group was not trained to be our enemies. So that was pure racism.

00:53:02.140 And that's 100% unacceptable.

00:53:07.340 All right. Nikki Haley won the news cycle by being the toughest. 0.99

00:53:12.140 I think one of the things that Nikki Haley gets right is that if you're running as a woman

00:53:19.980 for a job that's never had a woman and its commander-in-chief is the big part of the job,

00:53:25.500 that you've got to make it look like you're the toughest person in the room.

00:53:31.580 So I think she cranks it up to 110, you know, when maybe 95 was the right level.

00:53:37.500 But in terms of getting attention during the election cycle, she said this, among other things.

00:53:47.740 This is not just an attack on Israel. This was an attack on America. 0.63

00:53:51.580 So that's pretty extreme. But then she says to Netanyahu directly,

00:53:57.820 finish them. Finish them. She says it twice. Finish them. Finish them. 0.80

00:54:04.860 Now, what does that sound like? It sounds like kill them all. But that's presumably not what she means. 1.00

00:54:11.740 I think she means finish them as a political and military power. But the way she delivered the line,

00:54:22.700 she delivered the line like she was Arnold Schwarzenegger saying, I'll be back.

00:54:27.900 It was chilling. And I said to myself, okay, you just sold me that you're not going to be soft.

00:54:38.940 Completely sold. Because these are strong, strong words. Finish them. Because finish them is unambiguous,

00:54:46.300 isn't it? That doesn't mean give them a black eye. That means we're now going to change the situation

00:54:52.940 forever. And by the way, Israel says that. They're going to change the reality for 50 years. 0.78

00:55:00.140 Which means probably longer.

00:55:07.500 All right. So I would say she won on being the toughest there. 0.77

00:55:14.300 I think Vivek has a problem. Because although his opinion on Israel was reasonable and defendable,

00:55:24.380 which is at some point we should wean them off of American aid. I think that's more complicated

00:55:33.020 because our aid is to help them buy our own military assets. So it's not exactly like direct aid.

00:55:41.260 It's more like fascism on the American side. It's more like fascism because the government is acting

00:55:51.180 like a marketer for, you know, for the military or the military contractors.

00:55:58.940 But anyway, Vivek, just because he said we should figure out a way to let Israel pay its own way, 0.77

00:56:05.900 because they're a big successful company, or they're a successful country economically.

00:56:12.140 He's going to look like he is weak on this. He's not. But when you compare it to finish them

00:56:20.060 to, well, you know, maybe they should be on their own, you know, that they don't have the same.

00:56:25.740 So regardless of what is the reality of their opinions, that never matters for politics.

00:56:30.620 The reality is, how are we going to, how are we going to shortcut them, right? If every time you

00:56:37.660 talk about Nikki Haley from now on, you remind people, she said, finish them. She's the tough one. 0.95

00:56:44.220 Well, then she wins. And if every time they talk about Vivek is like, oh, but he wanted to,

00:56:49.900 you know, reduce support to Israel, which is not exactly what he's saying. He's saying they don't need it,

00:56:56.220 which is different than reduce, you know? So it's going to be harder to defend.

00:57:03.820 But all that's going to matter is what Trump says, probably. Biden just said the standard stuff

00:57:09.580 presidents say. Has Trump said something that's not obvious, like Israel has to hit back, blah, blah, blah.

00:57:17.980 Has Trump done anything that wasn't just, you knew he was going to say exactly that?

00:57:22.460 I don't think so. I think everybody's acting on model right there.

00:57:31.500 Sam Harris, there's an audio of him, I think he did it a while ago, in which he was comparing

00:57:38.620 the morality of what Israel does with its power to the morality of what their enemies do with their 0.67

00:57:46.860 power. And I started to wonder after listening to it, if Sam Harris has always been dumb and I just 0.97

00:57:53.980 didn't realize it. Maybe I just didn't realize it. Because here was his argument. 0.98

00:58:02.620 He argues that you can tell how evil somebody is, I'm paraphrasing now, by if they had the power,

00:58:10.700 if they had all the power, what would they do with it? Now, he suggests that if the Palestinians had all

00:58:16.860 the power, at least the militant ones, that if they had all the power, they would literally just kill 0.99

00:58:23.660 everybody in Israel, at least all the Jews. Now, I don't know that that's true, but they do talk like 0.92

00:58:30.460 that. So I'm going to say he's not wrong about that, because that's the way they talk. But he points

00:58:39.020 out that it's not the same on the other side. That Israel has, you know, the military dominance, 0.68

00:58:45.260 but they are not wiping out the Palestinians. So therefore, you cannot make a moral equivalent,

00:58:50.940 because if the Palestinians had the power, they would kill all the Israelis. 0.98

00:58:55.100 They say it kind of directly. Israel does have that kind of power, that if they wanted to, 0.99

00:59:01.580 they could. But they don't do it. Therefore, that's more moral.

00:59:06.780 That's one of the stupid fucking things I've ever heard in my life. 1.00

00:59:10.220 Do I even have to give you an argument for that? Or are you all just nodding your heads like, 1.00

00:59:14.700 that's pretty stupid? It's just stupid. Israel can't wipe out a civilization. 1.00

00:59:22.140 That's not one of the options. You can't look at them and say, well, they haven't done a Holocaust 0.94

00:59:30.540 themselves. Of course, it's not an option. So to act as if Israel has the option, and so because 0.94

00:59:39.740 they didn't use that option, you can tell something about them. It's not an option. Now, I will say

00:59:47.820 that if they had the option, I don't think they would use it. But that's a separate, separate

00:59:53.660 argument. Right? I don't think they would. But it is not true that one of them has the power and one

01:00:01.500 does not. Neither of them have the power to completely kill all the other people.

01:00:06.060 In a realistic sense. They have the military power, but not realistically.

01:00:14.460 I've decided to call MSNBC the anti-white news. Because that's all I see when I watch MSNBC.

01:00:23.260 MSNBC is just a hundred different reasons to say white people suck. It's just anti-white people news. 1.00

01:00:29.660 I feel like that's just what I'm going to call it from now on. Yeah, I did call it MSNBC. But it's

01:00:37.740 funnier to just call it the anti-white news because that's what it is. Anyway, did you know that in

01:00:46.620 Sweden there are 61 no-go zones because of the Islamic extremists who live there? There are 61 places 1.00

01:00:55.420 that unless you're Islamists, you can't go there. 61. And apparently there are a number of people in

01:01:04.380 the city of Melmo in Sweden shooting off fireworks celebrating the Hamas terror attack.

01:01:13.740 So that's Sweden. So Sweden went the opposite direction of Trump and said, hey, we're not a

01:01:21.500 bunch of racists. Come on in. And now they have 61 no-go zones. So they got what they wanted there.

01:01:34.140 Minneapolis and Detroit are no-go. Yeah, we have our own no-go zones for different reasons, I guess.

01:01:39.020 RFK Jr. looks like he's set to announce on Monday a third-party run. And it's going to change

01:01:51.660 everything. For a while, you're not going to know who's the likely winner. Now that all the smart

01:01:59.260 people are saying he's going to take votes away from Trump, which makes me think that's not true.

01:02:05.820 Do you know why? Because all the smart people say it's true. Am I the only one who, as soon as all

01:02:13.180 the smart people say it's true, immediately my brain says, well, I can eliminate that possibility.

01:02:20.140 Whatever it is, it's not that. It's going to be something else besides that. Because all the smart

01:02:25.580 people think it. Here's what I think they haven't factored in.

01:02:29.100 They haven't factored in people's real-life choices.

01:02:37.900 I think people are saying, if you're a Democrat, let's just work through this. If you're a Democrat,

01:02:45.980 you want to win first, because you don't want Trump. So you want to win, win, win. Winning is all you care

01:02:52.620 about. And you think that if RFK Jr. gets in the race, you couldn't directly vote for him and win.

01:03:02.300 You would just let Trump win. But what happens when it becomes obvious that Trump would beat Biden?

01:03:12.540 And that Biden has no chance. Let's say even with RFK Jr. in the mix. Because I think there might be

01:03:22.220 more regular Democrats than you think, who would like to go to something less controversial.

01:03:29.420 How would you like to have a president that there's a strong crossover that the other party

01:03:35.900 doesn't hate him completely? At the moment, you could pick any Republican at random,

01:03:43.660 and you could say, what do you think of President Biden? And they're going to have something negative

01:03:47.500 to say. But could you ever imagine a president, and RFK Jr. might be one, in which maybe only 80%

01:03:56.700 of Republicans say he's terrible? That would be a big improvement. Because that would still give him

01:04:02.700 a lot of operating room, right? So I don't know. I don't know. When's the last time we had that?

01:04:16.140 If abortion is a top issue, is RFK pro-abortion? He is. So RFK is pro-abortion. So he would certainly 1.00

01:04:23.020 lose all Republicans who have that as a top issue, or anywhere near the top. But it's also a state

01:04:32.620 issue. So it could be that people will just say, ah, as long as he doesn't want to do a federal law,

01:04:41.340 I think Republicans would say, well, let's leave it to the state. We're good with that.

01:04:45.980 So he has a way to get there. He does have a way to win. He has a path to victory. And if you don't

01:04:53.260 believe that, I don't think you're paying attention. He definitely has a path to victory.

01:05:02.460 But even more than that, he has a path to being the kingmaker, the person who could decide to stay

01:05:08.220 in or to get out. And that might be the choice of who wins. So that's pretty interesting.

01:05:14.620 Yeah. I do think that RFK Jr. is such a threat to the Republican people in power that they would

01:05:26.220 do everything they could to stop it. But it's going to be interesting. And you know what the

01:05:34.140 funny thing is? I keep hearing people criticizing RFK Jr. because he's just going to screw up everything

01:05:41.820 for Democrats. Like he might just ruin the whole Democrat game. And I thought to myself,

01:05:49.580 there is nobody who has more legitimate moral and ethical right to screw up everything than he does.

01:05:57.740 Like he's the guy, he has absolute right to just destroy the system and then, you know,

01:06:03.260 maybe help rebuild it. But I don't mind destroying our stuff because we're good at rebuilding.

01:06:07.900 Some of our stuff needs to get destroyed. Demolition phase before rebuilding.

01:06:15.180 All right. Is there even a Democrat party anymore?

01:06:21.740 You know, I feel like the Democrats that have the most power have morphed into a criminal enterprise,

01:06:29.900 which I don't see on the Republican side at all. There are clearly individual Republicans

01:06:35.340 who do bad things that are illegal. But it doesn't look coordinated. It looks like the Democrats have

01:06:42.860 literally created a structure where their own people can have key jobs and then the corruption can be,

01:06:50.940 you know, unchecked. That's what it looks like. So I would say that RFK Jr. is going to look like

01:06:57.580 the only Democratic Party. That could be the frame that we start hearing is that RFK Jr. is running as a third

01:07:05.900 party. It's called Democrat. That would be strong. I'm running as the only Democrat, but I can't,

01:07:15.500 but I can't call myself that. I can't call myself the only Democrat because the party has this control

01:07:22.220 and they're stopping people from competing. But I tell you, I'm not part of the criminal enterprise.

01:07:29.420 If you want a real Democrat, I'm going to offer you that option. The rest of what they're calling

01:07:34.940 Democrats are essentially a criminal organization. And you should be destroying them, not voting for 0.94

01:07:40.380 them, if you're a real Democrat. It's just, I think he's got a killer argument.

01:07:45.740 So we'll see. There's a report by the Nonprofit Society of Actuaries. We've been waiting for this,

01:07:55.100 right? Trying to figure out about the excess deaths. Don't you want to know if the insurance actuaries

01:08:01.980 are going to charge people differently if they've been vaccinated versus unvaccinated?

01:08:07.180 Right? Because they're the ultimate, I would say, the jurors on what was more dangerous than what.

01:08:15.340 Because the insurance companies, in theory, are just going to try to make money, right?

01:08:20.300 They're not making money from pharmaceuticals. They're not making money from selling masks.

01:08:25.180 They just want to know for sure who is more likely to die. That's all they need. We just need to know

01:08:31.500 who's more likely to die. And then we'll do the rest. We'll just charge based on that.

01:08:35.980 And their current thinking is that there were 34% more deaths. These would be the excess deaths above

01:08:46.140 the expected baseline. So 34% more in the ages 35 to 44, you know, the core of life in the last three

01:08:56.300 months of 2022. So around the time the vaccinations were rolling out, excess deaths started to climb.

01:09:06.700 Is that because of that? Well, the problem is there are lots of reasons why there would be excess deaths.

01:09:11.820 We know there's more suicide. We know there was more overdoses. We know that people were less

01:09:21.500 healthy. They got much fatter. So there's a whole bunch of reasons people should be dying.

01:09:26.300 And it would have started about the same time as the vaccinations, because the lockdown started

01:09:32.220 before the vaccinations. So we don't know that's the reason. But what would be this? This is a test

01:09:39.980 of your analytical abilities. Okay. If the one thing you know for sure, and I don't know this for sure,

01:09:47.020 but suppose the one thing you knew for sure is that right around the same time as the vaccinations,

01:09:52.220 which as I remind you, was also the same time we were getting fat and overdosing and committing suicide.

01:09:59.900 So we had several reasons that happened about the same time. If you knew there was a substantial

01:10:05.580 difference in the excess mortality, right around the time vaccinations were rolled out. But as I said,

01:10:13.100 those other things were happening too. Could you conclude with a high degree of certainty

01:10:18.940 that the vaccinations were the problem? Yes or no? With a high degree of certainty.

01:10:27.260 I see yeses. I see noes. Well, here, most of the noes are correct. All right, the noes are correct.

01:10:35.980 Here's what you would want to study. The vaccinated versus the unvaccinated. And that's it.

01:10:42.700 You can't study the average people. That will tell you nothing because there are too many things going

01:10:53.100 on. But if you were to study separately vaccinated versus unvaccinated and by age group, because you

01:11:00.140 would want to separate that by age group. If that analysis caused the actuaries to say, oh,

01:11:09.100 that's real. And we're going to charge based on whether you're vaccinated or not vaccinated.

01:11:14.220 Because remember, they can charge more if you smoke cigarettes. Am I right? They do, right? If you

01:11:19.340 smoke cigarettes, they'll charge you more, won't they? For life insurance. And it's not it's not really

01:11:25.420 easy to check up on that. I mean, they could, but it's not easy. So couldn't you also

01:11:30.860 charge more for people who are either vaccinated or unvaccinated, depending what your actuarial

01:11:39.980 numbers determined was more dangerous? Yeah. So the only thing I want to teach you is that looking

01:11:46.860 at excess mortality, even if it started at the same time as the vaccinations, it doesn't tell you what

01:11:53.500 you think of this. It might. It doesn't not tell you that. It's just not, it's not something you

01:12:01.500 should rely on. But if you actually saw numbers that you could think were accurate about the

01:12:07.980 vaccinated versus the unvaccinated, that would tell you everything, I believe. I mean, you'd probably

01:12:14.300 want to control it for age and obesity and stuff. But basically, just look at those two groups. Now,

01:12:21.660 has anybody done that analysis? I haven't seen it. Have you?

01:12:34.140 Why would nobody have done the one analysis that actually would make you confident you knew what

01:12:40.700 was happening? What, is it too hard? You think it's too hard to study that? I doubt it. It's not too hard.

01:12:46.700 That info was reliable. They didn't ask and assumed unvaccinated if unknown. Okay. I don't know about that.

01:13:00.460 And the other thing I would teach you is don't compare the United States to any other country.

01:13:05.980 So as soon as you say compare to Sweden or compare to Africa or anything, none of that works.

01:13:10.940 None of that works. We don't collect data the same way. There's just nothing that's the same. It's just

01:13:18.540 too different in too many ways. It won't tell you anything. So that, ladies and gentlemen,

01:13:24.460 concludes my comments for today. I feel sorry for you and feel sorry for Israel especially, 1.00

01:13:30.300 and also the innocent people in Gaza who are going to pay a big price.

01:13:38.620 But you're going to hear the same arguments just over and over all day long today.

01:13:43.340 I hope I gave you something that was a little bit different,

01:13:46.460 but it's going to be, it's going to feel like a lot of the same all day long.

01:13:49.580 I'll tell you one thing that the situation in Israel, let's call it the war. Does this war have a name yet?

01:14:00.540 The Gaza war or something? It's going to get a name. They're going to name it.

01:14:07.500 But I'll tell you one thing it did. Yeah, let's, let's not call it World War Three.

01:14:14.860 One thing it did is it put our other problems in perspective, didn't it?

01:14:19.580 When you, when you imagine, what would it be like to know that armed terrorists are on your border

01:14:29.740 and running through your city, just gunning people down, and that they might be there for days?

01:14:36.780 It might last days. I mean, how long does it take to catch a thousand people? Some of them are going

01:14:42.860 to go to hiding and then just come back out as soon as the heat goes down, right? So it made,

01:14:49.500 a lot of my other problems seem completely unimportant. In fact, when I was putting together

01:14:55.660 my notes for today, you know, if you were here at the beginning, you know, I started with,

01:15:00.780 you know, just some scientific things and things like that. I didn't want to talk about those today.

01:15:06.140 Like I did it to wait for people to get on the live stream and I did it. So you didn't hear just

01:15:12.380 non-stop negativity today, but I wasn't interested. I mean, normally I'm totally interested. Oh,

01:15:18.700 new scientific thing, you know, new little study, new poll. They all interest me. But in the context

01:15:25.980 of watching Israel being overrun, or at least attempted to be overrun, none of it feels important.

01:15:32.780 Like Israel feels important today. Nothing else does. Even in Ukraine, I barely thought about it.

01:15:43.180 It just changed everything.

01:15:47.180 No discussion about what leads to this. Well, I think we all know what led to it. Don't we?

01:15:53.740 Yeah. I mean, there's no mystery about what led to it.

01:16:03.340 All right, ladies and gentlemen, I'm going to say, uh, say goodbye on this platform. I hope my

01:16:08.460 sound and lighting were better than yesterday. Thanks for joining. And I will see all of you

01:16:14.460 tomorrow. And I'll talk to the locals people privately.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - October 08, 2023

Episode 2255 Scott Adams： Coffee With Scott

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