Real Coffee with Scott Adams - October 20, 2023


Episode 2267 Scott Adams： CWSA 10⧸20⧸23


Episode Stats


Length

56 minutes

Words per minute

145.11876

Word count

8,146

Sentence count

599

Harmful content

Misogyny

2

sentences flagged

Hate speech

32

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode of CWSA Coffee, Scott Adams talks about why people who don't like each other while married are more likely to divorce than those who do like their spouses. He also talks about the one thing you look for in a marriage that predicts divorce: contempt.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of human civilization.
00:00:11.520 It's called CWSA Coffee with Scott Adams, and it's the best thing that ever happened here.
00:00:15.640 If you would like your experience now streaming on multiple platforms, I think Rumble's working
00:00:21.200 today. We've got the X platform and YouTube and locals for my beloved subscribers.
00:00:30.000 And here's what you need to take this experience up to levels which you couldn't even imagine
00:00:36.380 were possible. All you need is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a gel, a cyan, a canteen,
00:00:40.860 jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee.
00:00:47.380 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine at the end of the day, the
00:00:50.760 thing that makes everything better. It's called the simultaneous sip. It happens now. Go.
00:01:00.000 Pretty good. Yeah, sometimes those sips aren't perfect, but it's pretty good.
00:01:06.380 Well, here's the good news. I found a movie that I can watch. Wow. Have you noticed that
00:01:13.400 all movies suck? Well, it turns out that there is still one person making good movies, and
00:01:20.720 I've said it before, Tom Cruise. Why is it that Tom Cruise is the only person who knows how to
00:01:25.780 make a movie? So I was just watching the latest Mission Impossible. It just came out on live
00:01:31.340 stream. And it is screamingly un-woke without being bad in any way. In other words, you don't
00:01:42.060 really pick up on the wokeness or anti-wokeness of anything. You just watch the movie. It is
00:01:47.440 so not heavy-handed in the wokeness that it just feels like a movie from yesterday or something.
00:01:54.820 And the other thing that Tom Cruise does right, and I have to think it's him. I feel it's like
00:02:00.680 more him than even his directors. They are so well edited. He doesn't have any moment in
00:02:07.020 the movie where you're like, all right, fast forward, fast forward. It's like every moment
00:02:11.720 totally belongs in the movie. It's very rare. So check it out. It might not be the best movie
00:02:19.440 you've ever seen, but it's all very watchful so far. Well, today I'd like to give you another
00:02:27.380 statement from science. Now here's something that you've heard, probably you've heard this before,
00:02:33.060 from marriage experts, mostly divorce experts. I think you've heard it from Jordan Peterson,
00:02:39.620 and I just heard it from some other relationship expert on Instagram. I don't remember his name.
00:02:47.520 But he was saying that the most predictive variable for divorce, you know what it is? What is the one
00:02:55.640 thing you look for that's most predictive of divorce? That's right. Contempt. Yeah. Money is one of the
00:03:02.900 biggest problems. But if you're going to predict divorce, it's contempt. So the first time I heard
00:03:10.560 that, it was years ago. And I said to myself, holy cow. Wow. That's like opening up like this whole
00:03:19.600 understanding. My awareness has been maximized. Now I know exactly what to look for, not only if I'm in a
00:03:27.740 relationship but other people, but I can totally predict what's going to happen. And I thought, why, why didn't I
00:03:35.000 know that before? That contempt predicts divorce? Because it's backwards science. Backwards science. Let me, let me
00:03:51.440 just reword this. All right. So the experts are telling us, and it's sounding very smart when they
00:03:57.200 do it, that if you see contempt, that predicts divorce. Huh. So when one or both of the people who
00:04:07.980 are married to each other started thinking the other was a fucking asshole and I can't stand the 0.99
00:04:14.020 moment in the same moment in the same room, that, well, I didn't see this coming, but that actually
00:04:19.780 predicts divorce. Wow. Can you believe it? That people who don't like each other while married
00:04:29.380 are more likely to divorce than people who like each other? Where did that come from? It's like it came
00:04:36.420 out of nowhere. Why, why did I think that was profound for years? For years, I thought that was
00:04:46.980 telling me something useful. So people who don't like each other are less likely to stay together.
00:04:56.120 Why did that sound profound until today? Today, for the first time I heard it and I thought,
00:05:02.600 well, it's obviously backwards. You know what's a better way to say that? People who have already 0.90
00:05:09.620 decided to divorce treat each other like dicks. It's backward science. It's not predicting. It's
00:05:19.900 already happened. There's no predicting going on. All right. A very important story. We still don't
00:05:27.780 have in America here. We have not elected a speaker of the house and the problems are mounting, for
00:05:35.520 example. Okay. Next story. Elon Musk is trying to kill newspapers. He did a couple of things in that
00:05:48.800 direction this week. So he posted this on X. He said, the articles printed in newspapers are quite
00:06:00.080 literally yesterday's news. The newspapers are literally yesterday's news. And I thought to
00:06:07.980 myself, well, if it's printed, yes. I mean, they can do a little bit better online because they're
00:06:14.820 usually online as well. But it is a good cut. But I had to correct him. I don't like to correct
00:06:20.800 Elon Musk because he's usually pretty spot on. I usually agree with him. But here I think his
00:06:27.880 statement is incomplete. You know, he said articles printed in newspapers are quite literally
00:06:33.420 yesterday's news. And I have to correct him because I said, the Washington Post is not yesterday's
00:06:39.840 news. The Washington Post is yesterday's news. And that's different. So speaking of billionaires
00:06:50.660 and newspapers, I saw a tweet today that it was so exactly what I've been thinking that
00:06:59.040 it blew my mind. So on the X platform, Rod Lorenz posted, I wonder if Jeff Bezos is embarrassed
00:07:07.040 by Washington Post's incessant lying. Or does he endorse it or not realize it? And I thought
00:07:15.460 to myself, I spent a full hour yesterday wondering about that. You know, I don't spend all of my
00:07:23.880 time thinking about the Roman Empire. Sometimes I think about Jeff Bezos. And I swear to God,
00:07:30.140 I was working out and I was just obsessed by that question. Does Jeff Bezos know what the
00:07:38.280 Washington Post does? I mean, how can he not? On the other hand, does he approve of it? Or is it,
00:07:45.440 you know, does he say there's a problem also? What's going on? And my best hypothesis is that he's
00:07:55.520 under duress, that he's being forced to own it for the benefit of some government entity that has
00:08:03.780 some power over him. Either because they can buy billions of dollars worth of server time
00:08:11.000 on Amazon servers, which the CIA has. Or maybe they control whether he can operate,
00:08:18.160 you know, as freely as he wants in different markets. Maybe it gives him some protection there.
00:08:23.880 I don't know. You can imagine a number of government entities having some power over Amazon and
00:08:30.720 therefore over Bezos. But there's such a disconnect between what we know about Bezos and his ownership
00:08:39.360 of the Washington Post. Would you agree? What we know about Bezos from everything except the
00:08:45.060 Washington Post, I would describe him as non-political and a pragmatist.
00:08:53.880 Meaning that I don't even know if he leans left or right. I couldn't tell you.
00:09:00.320 Which is remarkable, really. And what I mean by that is he probably decides on each issue individually,
00:09:07.720 which is what super smart people do. So it wouldn't surprise me. Now, I'm sure he identifies
00:09:14.980 with one side or another, probably more Democrat than Republican, just a guess. But probably not
00:09:22.120 obsessed with it. You know, probably more looking at each individual thing. Because there will be
00:09:29.480 some things that Democrats like, that he likes, some things they like that would be bad for business.
00:09:34.940 So he's probably, he probably picks and chooses. But why, why would he put such a reputational stain
00:09:42.660 on his business by owning the Washington Post? Because Amazon has an amazing reputation. In my opinion,
00:09:50.100 they do software better than anybody's ever done it. I mean, I could not be more impressed
00:09:56.220 with how Amazon as a technology works. The fact that you don't think about it every day,
00:10:02.400 like some problem because of it, it tells you how amazing it is. I mean, my God, the complexity
00:10:08.960 of that thing. And that it actually delivers me stuff the next day. I'm just blown away by it every
00:10:14.960 day. So I think he's under duress, but that's just speculation. All right. Speaking of speculation
00:10:22.520 and billionaires, did you see the news yesterday that Peter Thiel has been an FBI informant for years?
00:10:31.080 Did you see that? It wasn't the biggest news, but it was, you know, all over the internet.
00:10:38.700 So apparently it's confirmed. It's confirmed from the FBI handler himself,
00:10:43.700 which is pretty good confirmation. I think the handler is retired or something, but he said,
00:10:49.500 oh yeah, he was one of mine. Now, just so you don't get too excited about it, the confirmation
00:10:57.500 is that he was an informant strictly for international foreign stuff, which I don't
00:11:04.600 mind too much. Do you? If he's an FBI informant specifically excluding domestic stuff, so he was
00:11:13.860 excluded for talking about Trump or domestic politics, he was just an informant if he learned
00:11:20.180 something about other countries that was relevant to the US. I've got a prediction or maybe an
00:11:27.500 observation. How could anybody who's a billionaire not be talking to the FBI or maybe other intelligence
00:11:37.340 groups? I would think it's universal. You don't think that government entities have approached
00:11:44.120 Elon Musk. It's impossible to imagine it hasn't happened. Impossible to imagine. Now, that doesn't
00:11:54.460 mean he's agreed to do anything or, you know, that he's working with them. It doesn't mean he's not.
00:11:59.980 If I were a billionaire, the way I would handle it is I would work with the government when it made
00:12:04.960 sense and I would resist it when it didn't make sense or it violated some moral ethical boundary.
00:12:11.760 My guess is that's what's happening with every billionaire who has any influence over anything,
00:12:17.800 right? You know, somebody like Bezos, somebody like Elon Musk. I feel like the government has to
00:12:24.500 be in one pocket, which doesn't mean they're controlling him. I mean, it could be an interplay
00:12:30.320 where everybody's looking for their own benefits. But don't be naive and imagine that we have,
00:12:37.720 you know, important, influential billionaires who are dealing with other countries, China in
00:12:43.400 particular, and that they're not being talked to by the government. Of course they are. How much
00:12:49.540 impact that has probably depends on each issue individually. Well, Vivek Ramaswamy said something
00:12:57.140 that I agree with completely. He said in a post, it's not 1980 anymore, which a great framing,
00:13:05.680 by the way. He says, it's not 1980 anymore. The real threat to free speech today, the government
00:13:11.820 is using a combination of carrots and sticks to get private companies to censor speech that the
00:13:17.580 government cannot censor directly. He says, if it's state action in disguise, the constitution still
00:13:24.900 applies. Oh, that rhymes. If it's state action in surprise, the constitution still applies, period.
00:13:31.880 I didn't realize he had a rhyme there. I think that was accidental, but it was pretty good.
00:13:37.720 This is precisely my point of view, precisely. That, in fact, you've probably seen me say
00:13:45.540 that was a good argument in the 80s. Have you seen me say that online? I actually say the same
00:13:51.960 thing. It's a good argument in the 80s. And the reason is that if you don't, if you don't
00:13:58.560 pace somebody, you're never going to change their mind. So if somebody says, blah, blah,
00:14:06.080 blah, free speech, the government's not doing it, it's private companies, so it's okay,
00:14:10.160 the correct answer is you're absolutely right in the 80s. And that's what Vivek did. Because
00:14:19.720 if you don't grant them that they have a proper view, a well-constructed opinion, it just doesn't
00:14:26.520 apply anymore, that something's changed. That's a much gentler way to say you're wrong. Say,
00:14:33.080 you are totally right until recently. And then things change. Now you should reassess it.
00:14:38.440 Very, very good persuasion. All right. How many of you have heard, oh, and let me say,
00:14:46.180 let me make this statement. Free speech is gone. There's not free speech in the United States.
00:14:53.700 I don't know if any country has it, but we definitely don't have it. And I'm getting
00:15:00.280 more and more pissed off when I hear people say we do. Because it's gone beyond just a thing we
00:15:07.360 disagree about, you know, whether the definition has been met of free speech or something. It's not
00:15:12.320 really just words. It's like, you're part of the problem if you don't know that free speech is gone.
00:15:19.840 Don't be part of the problem. I don't know if there is a solution. But if you're acting like
00:15:24.960 you still have free speech, you only have the freedom to be uninteresting to the government.
00:15:30.880 That's it. The moment you're interesting, or you can make a difference, people listen to you,
00:15:36.720 your speech is gone. Yeah, it's a practical matter. Now, I'd like the NPCs to take a moment
00:15:44.240 to say, but Scott, the Constitution only applies to the government, not to private entities.
00:15:53.360 Yeah, you missed the whole point there, NPCs. Missed the whole point.
00:15:56.240 Have you heard of an entity called NewsGuard? How many have heard of this? NewsGuard?
00:16:05.840 So apparently it's some EU organization of, you know, volunteers, mostly who are in the business of
00:16:15.120 censoring people. And it turns out that one of the people on that organization of looking to censor
00:16:25.120 people is Jimmy Wales, one of the founders of Wikipedia. Are you comfortable with that?
00:16:34.640 Are you comfortable with Jimmy Wales, the Wikipedia guy being on a censorship board?
00:16:46.000 I would like to give you my insider, the view here. Now, normally, I would not tell you about a
00:16:53.760 private conversation. So I'm not going to give you any details. But I have had extensive private
00:16:59.920 conversations with Jimmy Wales about the information on Wikipedia and some other drunk related stuff.
00:17:08.320 And I was just reviewing them because they were like 2019, 2020. We had some extensive back and
00:17:15.040 reports. So one of them was about the fine people hoax. And I brought it to his attention. Hey,
00:17:24.160 Wikipedia is saying that the fine, fine people hoax is a real thing that needs to be fixed. It's like
00:17:30.400 one of the biggest problems in the country that you need to fix that. Now, to his credit,
00:17:36.640 he looked at all my information, I showed him the transcript, and then I showed what was being
00:17:41.520 reported. And that was different. And he looked into it, and actually dug into the conversation
00:17:48.480 that was ongoing, and got back to me and said that it looked like the people who were sort of
00:17:56.800 fighting it out for supremacy had all the right arguments. Meaning he didn't know how it was going
00:18:03.200 to end up, but the process was working. There were the people who were questioning the narrative
00:18:08.640 were loud enough so that the other people were hearing them. They were showing their work,
00:18:13.680 right? There was transparency involved. And so his summary was that that would work out.
00:18:23.200 Now, has anybody looked at Wikipedia lately to see if the fine people hoax is covered correctly?
00:18:29.520 Because, you know, sometimes it'll get there, and then it'll drift off and
00:18:33.200 drift back and drift off. So I don't know if it is. But, so here's what I'll say just to support
00:18:42.320 Jimmy Wales. In my private conversations, he was very interested in getting it right.
00:18:50.160 That was my take, that he actually just wanted to get it right. So I didn't see, you know, I could see
00:18:57.200 bias for sure. So there was no question in which way he leaned politically. But he was fully engaged
00:19:04.960 in listening to the counter argument and making sure that the system included the counter argument,
00:19:10.640 and then let the system do whatever the system was going to do.
00:19:15.120 So I wouldn't, I wouldn't hate on him too hard. I do think that a lot of good people get dragged
00:19:20.480 into the, into the world of censorship. And don't realize, maybe don't realize the full implications
00:19:28.400 of what could go wrong. I think they actually, a number of them are just trying to make the
00:19:32.720 information better. But I'll just put that out there. And would you, let me ask you this question.
00:19:44.240 Do you think the suburbs are less safe since Trump was president? This seems like an unrelated
00:19:52.640 question. Let me ask you this. Is that your sense? Are the suburbs less safe?
00:20:00.960 Because one of the conversations I had with Jimmy was he wasn't, he, he, and I don't, I don't think
00:20:07.200 he'd mind this because his question was completely reasonable. So this is nothing bad about him.
00:20:14.240 It was around 2020. Trump said in a tweet that if Biden got elected, the suburbs, you know,
00:20:23.840 would start getting dangerous. And I retweeted it. And I had already had a number of conversations with,
00:20:31.520 you know, Jimmy Wales. So he was curious. And I was just reminding myself, because I looked at our
00:20:39.280 past conversation this morning. And he was curious if I really believe that, because I'd retweeted it.
00:20:46.320 Did I really believe that if Biden got elected, the suburbs would become less safe?
00:20:52.720 And I answered that it was a reasonable, it was a reasonable prediction, even if the purpose of the
00:21:01.360 prediction was to prevent it. Because you know, predictions have two purposes. And you should
00:21:07.120 probably know this when I make predictions. Some of my predictions are just trying to get it right.
00:21:12.320 And just seeing if you can predict. So some of it is about is it possible, even know what's going to
00:21:19.520 happen. And we do it for fun. I predict this, then you get to compare it. But
00:21:24.640 I'm going to turn off the feed, if you stop, if you don't stop bitching about the sound. 0.99
00:21:35.520 Now, the people, the people are locals, I've already trained them. But I don't want to seem
00:21:40.800 like a dick. But I can't do the show. If every fucking minute, you're, you're complaining about
00:21:46.320 the sound. So stop watching the platform you're watching. If the sound is not sufficient, you can
00:21:52.800 watch it on YouTube, Rumble, or the X platform live. Or you can go to scottadams.locals.com.
00:22:01.200 And at the moment, it's unlocked for non-subscribers. But could you please
00:22:07.840 shut the fuck up about the sound? Can you do that for me? This is because this is live.
00:22:15.040 If you yell at me all day long from the comments while I'm live, I can't do this.
00:22:19.600 It's not possible. I just have to turn you off. You think you can settle down a little bit?
00:22:25.200 There's always a few people on the spectrum who just can't stop yelling. I have to,
00:22:29.680 have to give them a little bit of social programming. Socially, you shouldn't be doing it.
00:22:35.440 Right? It's not a technical problem. It's a social problem. So calm the fuck down. 1.00
00:22:39.840 All right. Anyway, I do think the suburbs got a little more dangerous.
00:22:53.120 Let's talk about Sidney Powell taking a deal. So as you know, Sidney Powell thought the Kraken
00:22:58.480 was coming and she was going to find out some issues about the election, which never panned out.
00:23:05.440 There were no Krakens found yet. But she had a whole bunch of felonies that were dropped.
00:23:14.480 She had to plead guilty to six misdemeanors. Had small fines and didn't seem to be anything that
00:23:20.640 would affect her too much. Had to make an apology or something. No big deals. But then she also had
00:23:26.960 agreed to testify honestly in the RICO case against Trump that charges him with allegedly a conspiracy
00:23:38.480 to take over the government. Now, how do you think this is being reported on the left and the right?
00:23:45.040 Completely different, right? Just completely different. The left and the right.
00:23:49.840 Right. So the left is masturbating to it. I mean, I swear to God, I think people were typing with one
00:23:58.560 hand and it was like, oh, oh, Sidney Powell, Sidney Powell, she's going to talk. She is going to get
00:24:06.080 Trump. Oh, and it was like, it was actually creepy. Maybe not as creepy as my, as my acting out,
00:24:14.960 but it was pretty creepy. Like it actually just made me feel dirty watching these people.
00:24:21.840 And it was like porn because there's no doubt about it. They're getting a dopamine hit
00:24:27.600 from the thought that Trump could be hurt and jailed. They're actually getting pleasure from it.
00:24:34.080 It's weird. But here's the weirdest part. Why are they getting any pleasure from that? What makes them
00:24:40.480 think that's going to go their way? Their assumption is that it's obvious that Trump was guilty.
00:24:46.880 Obviously he colluded to overthrow the government. And therefore, if it's obvious he's guilty,
00:24:53.040 say the left, all you need is one person who says they'll tell the truth, who's also an insider.
00:24:59.520 And boom, Trump goes to jail. Problem solved, right?
00:25:03.040 Right? I'm not so sure that's the way it's going to go.
00:25:10.880 I don't think that's true at all. If I had to bet, I'd put a pretty healthy bet
00:25:18.240 on the fact that she's going to destroy the prosecution's RICO case by saying she was there
00:25:24.480 and saw every part of it. And at no point did anything illegal happen. That's what I think.
00:25:31.760 Because remember, she did not say she would testify, quote, against Trump. That's not the news.
00:25:40.320 She agreed to tell the truth if she testified.
00:25:45.360 Is that actually a compromise? Let me see. You're a famous attorney and you might have to testify.
00:25:55.040 Do you think that they might try to tell the truth?
00:25:58.400 I've got a feeling that a famous attorney isn't going to do a lot of lying on the witness chair.
00:26:08.800 Are they? Does that happen a lot? I don't see how that could possibly be good for her.
00:26:14.800 Yeah. So this is one of those situations where both sides get a little dopamine.
00:26:24.640 When I heard it, I said to myself, oh, basically the charges against one of the main players have
00:26:32.400 been now seen as bullshit because the felonies were all dropped. In other words, they were probably
00:26:39.200 bullshitting anyway. And then she gets to talk. I'm very interested in what she has to say.
00:26:47.760 So I think I told you this. I had a conversation with my, who I call my smart Democrat friend.
00:26:52.560 He's smart because went to a very good school, pays attention to the news, serious person, right?
00:27:02.240 So if you're in any kind of conversation with him about anything serious, he's going to bring the goods.
00:27:08.080 Like he's paid attention. He's got an argument. He's going to, he's going to whip it down on you.
00:27:12.560 He believes still, I think that Trump's advisors or aides have testified that Trump knew he had lost
00:27:26.080 the election, but was doing his protests anyway and trying to take over the country. Now, when I heard
00:27:33.520 that, I said to myself, is that possible? Is it possible I missed that story? What was there a story in
00:27:41.040 the news in which there was somebody who was actually in the room who's claiming that Trump
00:27:47.360 said, oh, I know I lost fair and square, but I'm going to pretend I didn't because I'll overthrow the
00:27:53.200 country. And I said to myself, how would I miss that story? And so I Googled what I could think of
00:28:01.520 to Google. And there is no story like that. I mean, obviously, if such a story existed,
00:28:08.000 it would be at the top of the feed, right? That's how a search works. If it's anti-Trump,
00:28:14.000 it's going to be the first hit. There was nothing like it. There were things around it.
00:28:21.200 For example, there were stories that said that Trump's advisors believed the election was fair
00:28:28.240 and they told him so. Somehow I think that got morphed into he knew it wasn't,
00:28:34.480 he knew it was fair. Why would Trump suddenly start believing his advisors
00:28:39.920 on something the advisors couldn't possibly know one way or the other? How could they know?
00:28:45.600 Doesn't even make sense. And then it goes further to that Trump knew he lost.
00:28:51.360 Now, I don't know what Trump said or didn't say to any people at the time, but I do know this.
00:29:00.720 Nobody could have known if they won or lost. It wasn't knowable, right? You only know what people
00:29:07.680 told you. I know that the experts said that the election was fair. I didn't do an audit. Did you?
00:29:14.480 Do you remember recounting the ballots yourself? The only thing we know is what people tell us.
00:29:20.480 And what people tell us is reliable or unreliable. It's a multiple choice question or both.
00:29:30.960 It's unreliable. Anything that comes from humans is sketchy as hell.
00:29:35.600 So think about the level of TDS you would have to have to imagine that you could read the president's mind
00:29:48.480 and that somehow he could read the minds of all the people involved with the election.
00:29:53.520 So it's like a double mind reading thing. You first must assume that Trump can read the minds of
00:29:59.280 all the people involved in the elections in every state to know that they had pure thoughts
00:30:03.920 and did nothing wrong. Because if you couldn't read their minds, you would have no way of knowing.
00:30:10.320 If somebody found a way to cheat that wasn't picked up, how would you know? The only person
00:30:16.080 who would know was the person who did it probably. So he would have to read their minds and know that
00:30:20.560 none of them existed. And then we would have to read Trump's mind to know that he'd read their minds.
00:30:26.640 How deeply broken does your brain have to be to believe in double mind reading? One that Trump read
00:30:35.920 all the minds of all the people who ran the election, everywhere. And also that we can read his mind
00:30:42.480 and see that he read those other minds. That's actually the claim. I mean, if you work it out,
00:30:48.000 that's what it ends up being. It's amazing that smart people are not immune from persuasion.
00:30:57.200 If there's one thing I can teach you that you really, really need to understand,
00:31:01.360 intelligence does not protect you from bullshit. And in fact, there are people who would say the
00:31:08.560 intelligent are more easily fooled because they're more confident in their opinions. That comes with
00:31:14.800 being smart. So the smart people are saying, yep, I looked at all the evidence and this is the way it
00:31:20.880 is. The less smart people say, you know what? I looked at the evidence I could find, but they could
00:31:26.160 probably fool me. So no way to know for sure. Right? So the people who don't know much
00:31:33.120 will quite often get the right answer. Quite often.
00:31:37.440 All right. Biden did his little address last night. Two mixed reviews.
00:31:46.240 Brit Hume thought it was a tour de force. I'll use his words. He said, quote, after the speech,
00:31:52.880 Brit Hume said on Fox, I think it may be remembered as one of the best, if not the best, speeches of his
00:31:59.840 presidency. He was firm. He was unequivocal, unequivocal. He was strong as he has been,
00:32:06.880 particularly in recent days before he went to Israel and while he was over there.
00:32:12.960 So really kind of a hero in a way. The leadership we've been waiting for is what I say.
00:32:20.720 Not everybody agreed. Dana Perino was on the show at the same time and thought he was bouncing around
00:32:29.360 from Ukraine to Israel to Taiwan and it was a little bit disjointed. Other people said he read
00:32:37.360 one of the instructions on the teleprompter that was not to be read. So there was one part where
00:32:48.800 the teleprompter said, make it clear. I think it was talking to him, not something he was supposed
00:32:55.520 to read. So he just said, make it clear in the middle of his sentence. Now, I don't know, you know,
00:33:03.520 that's something you could see Joe Biden doing when he was 50. I don't know that that's exactly
00:33:10.320 dementia, but maybe. Who knows? And the part that made me disgusted is that he said that funding for
00:33:27.040 to help Israel and also Ukraine, first of all, the fact that he tied the two together
00:33:31.920 so that nobody can say no to all of it. As long as he says that the funding is one package,
00:33:40.560 you would have to say either no to Ukraine funding or no to Israel funding. And there's
00:33:46.080 probably nobody in Congress who can say no to both, except maybe a few rogues. So they've got this trick
00:33:54.400 to figure out how to screw the American public using procedure. But they're doing it right in front of
00:34:01.920 us. He's screwing the American people by right in front of you to deny your popular opinion,
00:34:12.480 because you might have a different opinion of funding Ukraine than you might have of funding
00:34:17.200 Israel. And instead of letting the public decide on each of them individually, he's going to put them 0.83
00:34:22.000 together and use a procedure that is available to him to make it impossible to say no. So watching
00:34:28.800 my president screw me in public and then ask for applause is not comfortable to me. No, you
00:34:37.200 fucking asshole, make them two separate things so we can vote independently. Don't screw me and then tell
00:34:43.520 me you're doing it and then act like I should be fucking saluting you for it. No, you should lose your
00:34:49.440 job for that. You should be impeached immediately for tying these two funding requests together,
00:34:56.080 if that's what he's doing. So to me, it was a disaster. But the most chilling part was where he
00:35:02.960 called out very specifically the number of defense or let's say munitions makers in the United States
00:35:12.160 who would make a lot of money because of this deal. There's nothing I wanted to hear less than that.
00:35:19.760 Nothing I wanted to hear less than he was going to take my money and transfer it to munitions makers.
00:35:26.480 Now, I get that we have to do that now and then. It's not an unprecedented thing. But the fact that
00:35:32.080 you would call it out and then name the states that would benefit. It's like in Pennsylvania, you've got this
00:35:37.360 thing. I thought that was gross and disgusting. And I was embarrassed by it. You know, as a citizen,
00:35:46.160 I'm not really embarrassed by much, but you get the point. And I asked myself, as much as Trump is
00:35:52.640 famous for turning any political issue into a real estate or a business kind of frame, which I kind of
00:36:01.280 like actually, you know, I like if he's looking at North Korea, if he sees it as partly a real estate 0.76
00:36:08.880 question and stuff, because it helps. It gives them extra variables that other people don't have access
00:36:13.440 to. So I like it. But I don't think that Trump would have asked for money for two wars and told
00:36:20.400 you it would have been profitable for the weapons makers. I don't see it. I do not see it.
00:36:27.840 Now, it's possible, because he does, like I say, he talks about business terms about everything.
00:36:34.400 But I don't think he would have that bad a judgment. That feels like just terrible,
00:36:38.560 terrible judgment for selling the, because he's selling, he's not selling economics when he's
00:36:45.120 selling war. I mean, he literally told us the war would be profitable to people who are not me.
00:36:52.960 Scott, I will take your money. But don't worry, it'll be profitable for these other companies.
00:37:01.120 But they're Americans. So hey, that's not really good enough. Not good enough. 1.00
00:37:08.560 Anyway, and I saw I think it was Mark Warner said that one of the shows that maybe talking to Brett
00:37:16.480 Bear or somebody, he said that if you don't understand why, maybe I already said this,
00:37:22.960 why Ukraine is important to Taiwan, that you don't understand geopolitics. In other words, he said,
00:37:30.400 if we let Ukraine fall, China would see it as weakness, he didn't say it, but that's the implication,
00:37:36.480 and go after Taiwan. Let me test that hypothesis.
00:37:40.080 How many of you think that the only thing stopping China from taking Taiwan was what
00:37:50.560 happens in Ukraine? Because you know, it's been decades and decades where China had a question about
00:37:58.480 Taiwan, and never once was Ukraine part of the conversation. And yet, it was the same situation.
00:38:07.360 So now you had Ukraine, and you really think that if we pull our military support away from Ukraine,
00:38:15.200 which would give us greater military capabilities for other things, that that's the point that they
00:38:22.320 would attack. Once we'd stopped wasting our money somewhere else, we'd attack that they'd try to make
00:38:29.280 trouble then. That doesn't make any sense to me. And I thought Warner looked hypnotized.
00:38:35.360 Because he said it like, it's so obvious and right in front of you, that if you don't see it,
00:38:41.040 you're some kind of, like, political idiot. And I'm looking right at it, and I'm saying,
00:38:46.240 who in the world thinks like that? That decades of not having Ukraine part of the question,
00:38:51.920 but as soon as Ukraine gets in here, that's the key variable? It's the only thing that matters?
00:38:57.360 Suddenly? That doesn't even sound, it doesn't even sound a little bit credible.
00:39:06.640 Now, I get the point. But I just can't imagine China saying, that's the variable,
00:39:13.040 we'll just wait for that, and then we go. I don't see it. I also don't think that companies or
00:39:21.600 countries that are geographically disadvantaged as much as Taiwan, I think they always end up with 1.00
00:39:28.960 the mainland, don't they? You just have to wait 100 years or 200 years. But sooner or later,
00:39:35.600 they're going to be the same country. And I hate to say this, because I'm very pro-Israel,
00:39:42.960 but how could Israel survive in the long run? I mean, seriously. How is that even possible? 0.59
00:39:49.440 In the long run? Like in the 200 years long run? How is it even possible?
00:39:55.040 Yeah, it seems like geography is just too important. You know, the reason that the United States
00:40:03.520 has done well war-wise is that it's hard to get to us at that big old ocean. But if we were literally,
00:40:10.320 if Mexico and Canada were filled with people with a growing population that outnumbered us 10 to 1,
00:40:18.800 and wanted us dead, and surrounded us, would America last? I doubt it. Not in 200 years. So,
00:40:30.880 yeah, I worry about Israel. I feel like Israel needs Israel too. I feel like there should be a new 0.64
00:40:38.960 Israel that we sort of set aside somewhere in the country. You know, you take some place in New
00:40:44.560 Mexico and say, all right, this is just the backup. There's nothing there. We won't put anything there.
00:40:50.880 It'll just be empty. But someday, in 200 years,
00:40:56.720 the Israelis might need an escape plan. It'd be nice to have one set up. But on the other hand, 0.96
00:41:02.240 if you had an escape plan, you wouldn't fight so hard to keep what you got. So it would be demoralizing.
00:41:07.360 So it's a bad idea. But I do worry. 200 years? How in the world can geography not,
00:41:14.800 and population not be the primary variables?
00:41:19.440 All right. Christopher Ruffo posted this. He said, Hamas leader of, he was talking about a Hamas leader,
00:41:27.920 said this, quote, I want to take this opportunity to remember the racist murder of George Floyd.
00:41:33.200 This is the leader of Hamas this week. The leader of Hamas this week decided that a key thing to say
00:41:44.960 to the rest of the world is that we should remember the racist murder of George Floyd.
00:41:49.680 And he says the same type of racism that killed George Floyd is being used by Israel against the
00:41:54.480 Palestinians. And as Christopher Ruffo points out, the Hamas, BLM, DSA, I don't know who they are,
00:42:02.480 and decolonization are all the same bloodlust. And I agree. Hamas and BLM, clearly not the same, 0.99
00:42:13.520 but they're of the same, let's say, philosophy. They're a similar kind of danger, except smaller numbers.
00:42:22.720 You know, if there were more people in BLM, who knows? But yes, I think it's important to point out
00:42:32.400 that they all have bloodlust for the people who don't look like them.
00:42:37.440 Well, what's happening in Ukraine? I saw one data I didn't know is 70% of the casualties
00:42:44.080 are from the big guns. I guess that means artillery.
00:42:47.200 Did you know that? 70% of the, at least recently, 70% of the casualties are from the big artillery.
00:42:54.880 Because basically it just drops on you and you didn't know it was coming. It just happens all
00:42:58.720 day long. Does that make sense? But it turns out that the new, more modern artillery that Ukraine has
00:43:09.360 has been a match for the vast outnumbering number of big guns that the Russians have. So the, 0.63
00:43:18.160 the Ukrainians apparently have set up a very sophisticated spotting and destruction system. 0.98
00:43:25.680 So they'll, they'll spot sometimes with their drones. They'll put a drone over the target,
00:43:31.040 so the drone can just watch the target and they shoot at it. And then the drone tells them how to
00:43:36.000 adjust. All right, you're 20 feet short. Just a little bit, shoot again. So they can pretty much
00:43:42.480 take out a hundred percent of anything they can see. I mean, think about that. The Ukrainians now have 1.00
00:43:50.000 the ability to destroy a hundred percent of anything that can be seen from the air that's on the front
00:43:55.760 lines there. All of it. So they're just going one by one and just taking them out. And apparently it's
00:44:02.320 almost, it's almost just routine. See it, shoot at it, adjust, kill it. Go to the next one. Now, I don't
00:44:10.880 know if they're going to run out of artillery shells before Russia does, because one of the things they 0.83
00:44:16.240 take out is the local munitions depots. So it's harder for Russia to get the munitions to where they need
00:44:23.760 it. So it does look to me like a total, you know, a total, what would you call it? It's a tie.
00:44:33.360 Nobody's going anywhere. And I don't know how our leaders can't make peace in a war where it's
00:44:42.080 obvious it's not going anywhere. It seems to me that's the ultimate way you could make peace. It's
00:44:48.880 like, all right, have you been paying attention? Whatever you do, we're going to match it. We're
00:44:53.040 going to do it forever. Why don't we work this out? I see a comment that says, actually, Scott,
00:45:02.240 the Russians are advancing rapidly. Well, do you believe that? I believe it might be a report 0.99
00:45:09.680 somewhere. But do you believe the Russians are advancing rapidly? I don't. Nope, I don't think so.
00:45:18.160 Alexander Mercurius reports it. It doesn't matter who reports it. I just doubt it's true.
00:45:26.480 Now, I do think that there will be places where either side will punch through. But once you punch
00:45:33.200 through, you're just, it's just target practice. Right? So punching through is not, it's not getting
00:45:38.640 you a lot. You don't see the Russians giving up. I don't see anybody giving up until they get what
00:45:47.520 they want. But the Russians could get what they want without war. Probably. All right, I've got an
00:45:54.960 idea for, well, let me, let's talk about Gaza. So the hospitals are failing there. As you might imagine,
00:46:03.120 the emergency supplies are having trouble getting in at the Rafah crossing, as you would anticipate.
00:46:12.160 And apparently, the ground attack is not starting. So it's much later than people thought. Some of it
00:46:18.240 might be that it takes a while to organize the ground assault. But I've got a feeling that they
00:46:24.800 may have changed their tactics. And remember what I said? It didn't make sense to do a ground assault.
00:46:31.360 You remember I said that? I said it makes more sense to do a siege, which is what they called it.
00:46:37.120 They actually used the word siege. And the siege would be basically starving out both the civilian and
00:46:44.240 military people until you separate enough of the good people from the bad. And then you can do
00:46:50.880 whatever you want with that. So I think time is on their side. And maybe the worst thing that Israel 1.00
00:46:56.400 could do is create a bunch of casualties that are way beyond the pale. I think several thousand have
00:47:04.320 already died in Gaza. I saw 4,000 plus. I don't know how many people would have to die in Gaza.
00:47:11.920 I don't know how many people would have to die in Gaza before our hearts and minds reverse. And it just 0.69
00:47:16.880 looks like Israel's the bad guy, if you were backing them at this point. But there is some number. 0.83
00:47:23.920 I don't know what that number is, but there's a number. If we hit it, everything reverses.
00:47:29.280 So Israel would be smart to stay away from whatever that mental number is.
00:47:32.960 You know, keep those losses down to be somewhere in the range of Israel's own losses.
00:47:41.120 And at least, you know, not too much of an order of magnitude bigger.
00:47:46.960 And just take as long as they need. It'd be very expensive, but fewer people die.
00:47:53.200 You know, to me, having your enemy living underground is more of a plus than a minus.
00:48:00.160 If you're a guerrilla outfit and the other team doesn't want to bomb your city,
00:48:07.280 being underground is a very good idea. However, if it's a siege, being underground is just the place
00:48:14.640 you die. Am I right? And you can't shoot at people when you're underground.
00:48:19.760 Yeah. So I think the tunnel networks become the weakest part of the Hamas military effort.
00:48:29.360 To me, that's their weakness. And I think we'll just starve them out, basically. I don't think
00:48:36.400 anybody's going to go down into a tunnel if they don't have to. You can just send a robot down there.
00:48:42.400 All right. So here's where things are going.
00:48:45.840 I think there's going to be an Israeli decapitation strike on Iran, 0.85
00:48:53.840 because there may be no way to avoid it. So here would be the normal sequence of events.
00:48:59.680 If the ground assault starts, then Hezbollah has not just a free pass, but almost a requirement 0.98
00:49:08.640 for survival that they have to attack. The reason being, if they don't attack them,
00:49:15.120 their supporters will think, why are we giving you all this money? Like, this is the time you attack.
00:49:21.360 You have all the cover of Israel going into a civilian population. You're going to have high 1.00
00:49:27.680 numbers of deaths. You know, they're distracted. There could be no better time to attack in the
00:49:33.920 history of Hezbollah. This would be the time to attack. You know, given that they know they're 1.00
00:49:38.800 going to lose no matter when they attack. It doesn't matter to them, I guess.
00:49:42.240 So if the ground assault starts, Hezbollah will get aggressive. And if they didn't get aggressive, 0.96
00:49:50.560 they would be seen as weak. And why are we funding you? So they have to. If Hezbollah gets aggressive, 0.92
00:49:58.320 and Israel takes too many hits, because there's some amount of little annoying hits that Israel 0.62
00:50:07.040 will just put up with, because the full-out war is too much. But I think Hezbollah will exceed Israel's 1.00
00:50:15.200 patience. And then what would be Israel's next move? An all-out war with Hezbollah?
00:50:22.400 Do you think that would be the next move? That would be, I think, a mistake.
00:50:27.280 I think that would be a mistake. I would do a decapitation strike on Iran, 1.00
00:50:32.720 if they can figure out a way to make it work. The hostages will probably get killed,
00:50:37.920 no matter what. And I'm not saying that cavalierly or, you know, without respect to their
00:50:46.240 dignity of their lives, let's say. But realistically, realistically,
00:50:54.720 you know, they're in a place where there's not much you can do. Like, I don't see too many
00:50:59.840 rescues happening, but maybe a few. And worth trying. Certainly worth trying. I wouldn't expect
00:51:05.040 a lot from many rescues. But I think Israel's done talking. I think that they cannot, it would be a 1.00
00:51:16.240 waste of time for Israel to destroy Hamas and just fortify their border with Hezbollah,
00:51:22.960 because it would just recreate. As long as Iran gives money to the bad guys, 0.56
00:51:28.640 the whole situation will just be recreated. And I don't think they can put up with it a second time.
00:51:34.000 So if they want to end it, they would probably have to try something bold,
00:51:38.400 like taking out the leadership of Iran, as many times as it takes. Like, you know,
00:51:44.080 immediately they get a new hardliner. You just got to take out the new hardliner as soon as you can.
00:51:50.160 Now, you may say to me, Scott, this will create
00:51:54.400 massive terrorism around the world, and the lights might go out in the United States.
00:52:00.560 I think they might. I think the lights might go out in the United States,
00:52:05.040 because I'm sure Iran has terrorism teams in the United States by now.
00:52:11.200 They would presumably be activated automatically, and they would presumably go after things like
00:52:16.800 the grid. You have to really make sure everybody knew what was going on.
00:52:20.880 So I would expect the lights to go out, actually, in the next few weeks. Not permanently, but,
00:52:27.520 you know, I'd make sure you got batteries and candles, is what I'm saying. Because I think
00:52:33.680 Iran will hit back if they get hit. And I don't know what would stop them from being hit. 1.00
00:52:38.880 We're already seeing that our embassies are being cleared out in the whole area. We see that America
00:52:44.320 barely has a government, right? If you saw, if you were Iran, or even Hezbollah, or even Israel,
00:52:54.000 and you look at our leadership, and you look at no Speaker of the House, don't you tell yourself,
00:53:00.400 you're going to have to kind of do this on your own?
00:53:03.680 Now, the American military being in the Gulf, I guess we got a strike force that
00:53:10.720 that kind of pulled up in the area. Do you think that's because of Hezbollah?
00:53:15.920 Or do you think that's to keep Iran under control in case there's a decapitation strike?
00:53:26.720 I don't know. Could be all of those things. Could be what Joe Biden says, just a way to keep everybody,
00:53:31.600 you know, where they are and not to get them involved in the war. Maybe. But
00:53:39.600 so I'll make this prediction. If there's a bloody ground assault, which I think is in question,
00:53:46.880 I think the siege is more likely at this point. But if they go in and there are massive casualties,
00:53:52.640 Hezbollah will be active. Israel will say, we're done with this. And they'll just take out Iran. 0.90
00:54:02.560 At any cost. I think they'll take out the leadership.
00:54:07.760 Now, remember when Soleimani was taken out by Trump?
00:54:13.120 And people said, oh, no, that's going to create a wave of attacks. Did it?
00:54:18.880 I think it might have done the opposite. So I've got a feeling that the Iranian people 1.00
00:54:24.400 are not so happy about their leadership that they wouldn't mind seeing them vaporized, frankly.
00:54:29.200 Yeah, that's an unpredictable thing. Because if you attack any country, they tend to
00:54:35.200 back their leaders during the attack. So it's a dicey proposition.
00:54:38.720 So do you imagine
00:54:51.520 that Israel or the United States
00:54:55.760 knows where the head of Iran is? I feel like they might be just waiting to know for sure where he is.
00:55:03.280 And I don't think he'll be able to appear in public.
00:55:06.800 Has he ever?
00:55:08.320 Has the leader of Iran appeared in public in recent years? Or is it always sort of in a room that you didn't know where he was?
00:55:17.840 I can't imagine him doing an outdoor event in the world of drones.
00:55:22.000 By the way, you know that in the age of drones, our leaders will no longer be able to do outdoor events.
00:55:32.640 So that's going to happen.
00:55:35.760 All right.
00:55:37.600 All right. How many on these other platforms want me to turn it off?
00:55:42.560 Do you want to talk about the audio problems some more?
00:55:56.000 No? I'm just saying if they want to want me to turn it off.