Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2269 Scott Adams： CWSA 10⧸22⧸23

00:00:00.000 So there's a big breakthrough in quantum computing, some kind of materials

00:00:06.020 breakthrough with amino ferrocene and graphene, and it's going to be a real

00:00:12.040 big deal for quantum computing. I don't think we have any idea what's going to

00:00:16.760 happen with quantum computing. Yeah, I've said this before, but I feel like it's

00:00:22.020 the only story that matters, because every other one of our problems will be

00:00:28.400 folded into whatever happens when we have quantum computers and AI.

00:00:35.900 So, can we make an agreement? I would like to ask you for something. Could you, just as

00:00:44.300 a favor to me, never mention Styx his technical setup again? Please, never,

00:00:52.540 never again. It's just different. Let's just never talk about it again.

00:01:00.040 All right. And if we could let the technical and sound conversation stop,

00:01:06.580 that'd be great. Because otherwise, I'm just, so here's the problem with it. Even

00:01:13.040 though you notice that I do a pretty good job of noticing the comments as I'm

00:01:19.000 talking about the topics. But here's the thing that's not as obvious to you. I can

00:01:25.000 do that when the topic is about the news. So if I'm talking about the news, and then

00:01:30.400 you're talking about the news, and then I'm talking about the news, I can blend and

00:01:35.720 Venn diagram all of that information. But there's a part of my head that is

00:01:41.460 completely different from that mode. And that's the problem solving, like technical

00:01:47.460 head. So the problem is not that it's a distraction. It's a specific kind of

00:01:52.800 distraction that uses a different part of my brain. And then the resources I needed

00:01:59.460 in my head to get from technical problem solving to talking about the news is such a big leap

00:02:07.460 that I can't do it in real time. But I can do all of the newsy topics in real time.

00:02:12.460 They don't, they don't distract, they actually add more additive. Does that make sense?

00:02:17.460 It's a brain processing thing. It's almost like real estate in the brain. If you take

00:02:22.460 me to the wrong real estate, then I can't, I can't use the right real estate. So that's

00:02:28.460 why I seem extra extra prickly about that. It's not that it bothers me. It's that I can't

00:02:35.460 do the job under those conditions. All right. Mark Andreessen had this big manifesto about

00:02:45.460 everything that's wrong with the business world. And I love the fact that he says directly

00:02:49.460 that ESG could be one of the things that's destroying the world. You know, it's on his

00:02:55.460 list with some other stuff. And he calls it a mass demoralization campaign against progress

00:03:01.460 that has lasted 60 years. But he calls out everything trust and safety and tech ethics and the social

00:03:10.460 responsibility and basically all these well-intended things are basically destroying the world. But I would

00:03:24.460 like to add my own theory about why empires rise and fall. This will be the best theory you've ever

00:03:31.460 heard. So you heard Pat Buchanan's theory that is war, that all the prior empires were destroyed by war.

00:03:41.460 But while I get that, I mean, it's highly correlated. I've got a slightly different take that you're

00:03:50.460 going to like better. It goes like this. All empires are luck. That's it. You have to be lucky to become an

00:04:02.460 empire in the first place. It's not just that you had some good leaders and you performed well or you

00:04:09.460 have a good system, right? It's luck. And the one thing you can guarantee about luck is that it doesn't last.

00:04:15.460 That's it. That's the whole description of empires. For example, it was lucky that the United States was

00:04:27.460 geographically protected from World War II. Nobody planned it, right? People didn't move here because 0.96

00:04:35.460 they said, oh, in case there's a World War II. It was just luck. Yet, I also consider it luck that our

00:04:44.460 founders were alive and in America at the same time. I mean, what were the odds that Ben Franklin,

00:04:51.460 Thomas Jefferson, George Washington, Monroe, Hamilton, what are the odds they would all be

00:04:58.460 alive at the same time and have the same purpose? What are the odds that Steve Jobs would meet

00:05:05.460 Wozniak? What were the odds? If you don't put those two together, there's no Apple computer,

00:05:12.460 there's no smartphone maybe. Who knows? So my take on America and all the other empires is that

00:05:22.460 something weirdly rare had to happen for any empire to form in the first place. But that level of luck

00:05:32.460 that it takes to stay in power can't be sustained. Just nobody can be that lucky for a thousand years.

00:05:40.460 Now, once you are successful, you can do what any monopoly does. You can put up walls. So you can last

00:05:48.460 way longer than you should because you can put up, you know, ways to protect yourself. But in the long

00:05:54.460 run, it's still luck. Maybe there's a climate change thing. Maybe there's a, you know, somebody's

00:06:01.460 nuclear bomb goes off by accident. There's a pandemic that one person mismanaged but another one didn't.

00:06:09.460 I think it's just that. It's just luck. So that would suggest that every empire goes away eventually.

00:06:17.460 There's a, but I wouldn't worry about ours right away.

00:06:23.460 Thank you.

00:06:25.460 Oh, that is so weird that your comment said something about the Warren Commission. That was something I was

00:06:31.460 going to talk about today. Warren Commission.

00:06:35.460 I'll talk about that right now, actually. So I, I started watching, uh, uh, Oliver Stone's, uh, update to his

00:06:47.460 original movie, JFK about the assassination. So there's, there were more documents that are declassified,

00:06:53.460 or declassified, et cetera. So he's got an updated version of it. And what I always say about documentaries

00:07:01.460 is that they're 100% persuasive. Usually the 100% persuasive, as long as you don't see the counter

00:07:09.460 argument. So I'm aware while I'm watching it, I've only watched the first episode, but I was completely

00:07:15.460 aware of two things. Number one, it was completely persuasive of its point of view that Kennedy was

00:07:23.460 basically assassinated by the CIA and the mafia. Now, does that mean it's true? I don't know, because

00:07:31.460 I'd have to hear some kind of counterpoint to really have an opinion, but it's completely convincing.

00:07:37.460 Completely convincing. And let me tell you the most convincing part.

00:07:41.460 And this part does not require any speculation.

00:07:45.460 This is a real thing that I found out yesterday.

00:07:49.460 I did not know this till yesterday.

00:07:51.460 You know who, so there was this thing called the Warren Commission

00:07:55.460 the government put together in order to find out

00:07:59.460 for sure who killed Kennedy. You know, was it a lone gunman? Was it a conspiracy? Et cetera.

00:08:04.460 Well, they came up with the answer. There was a lone gunman. No conspiracy.

00:08:08.460 Now, the thing I didn't know is that the chairperson of the Warren Commission

00:08:14.460 was the only person who didn't have a regular job.

00:08:18.460 So he was the most active because he didn't have a day job to go to.

00:08:22.460 He was the recently fired head of the CIA, Dulles.

00:08:30.460 Now you say to yourself, well, that's probably a pretty good person, right?

00:08:34.460 Because it's somebody who's really connected, high-level executive type,

00:08:38.460 wouldn't know all the players. Yeah, Alan Dulles.

00:08:42.460 Here's the thing that I did not know about until today.

00:08:46.460 The chairman of the group who are trying to find out for sure who killed Kennedy.

00:08:52.460 And just listen to this carefully.

00:08:54.460 It's all you need to know.

00:08:58.460 The chairperson of the group that by far had the most power on the Warren Commission

00:09:06.460 was also the major suspect in the actual assassination.

00:09:12.460 So the main suspect was the person who was put in charge of the commission

00:09:19.460 to find out who the murderer was.

00:09:22.460 That's a real thing.

00:09:24.460 I didn't know that until yesterday. 0.99

00:09:27.460 That's a real fucking thing. 0.99

00:09:30.460 There's no question about what happened. 1.00

00:09:32.460 Of course the CIA killed him.

00:09:35.460 There's no way that you put the main suspect in charge of the investigation

00:09:41.460 unless it's exactly what it looks like.

00:09:46.460 It's exactly what it looked like.

00:09:48.460 Do you need to hear anything else?

00:09:50.460 Is there anything else you need to hear about this?

00:09:54.460 The main suspect who had been fired by Kennedy.

00:09:59.460 Do you know why he'd been fired as the head of the CIA?

00:10:04.460 So first of all, he was a disgruntled employee. 0.97

00:10:08.460 So that's a reason to kill somebody. 0.93

00:10:11.460 Second of all, he was a head of the CIA. 0.69

00:10:13.460 So he had all the ability to set up some kind of a fake assassination if he wanted to.

00:10:19.460 And then, but more importantly, I learned that Kennedy found out that the CIA was running its own foreign policy

00:10:28.460 and even the president wasn't aware of it.

00:10:31.460 And they didn't care about the president.

00:10:33.460 They thought they were in charge.

00:10:36.460 Did you know that?

00:10:38.460 Did you know that even Kennedy, and it's on record, said that he didn't think he had any control of the CIA

00:10:45.460 and didn't know what they were doing?

00:10:47.460 There were well-documented cases where they were overthrowing governments and murdering people

00:10:51.460 without the president having ordered it.

00:10:54.460 They were running their own government.

00:10:57.460 Do you think that's bad enough?

00:11:00.460 No, we're not done yet.

00:11:02.460 J. Edgar Hoover, who ran the FBI, same problem.

00:11:08.460 The FBI was not doing what the president wanted.

00:11:11.460 The FBI was its own domain, and it was just doing its own thing.

00:11:16.460 So Kennedy had an FBI that reported to him on paper, but didn't,

00:11:22.460 and a CIA that reported to him on paper, but didn't.

00:11:30.460 So it's exactly what it looked like.

00:11:32.460 The people who were really in power didn't like that there was this guy who was called president,

00:11:37.460 and so they killed him and covered it up.

00:11:42.460 Yeah. 0.77

00:11:43.460 Amazing.

00:11:44.460 So, Earl Warren.

00:11:46.460 Yeah, it was Earl Warren.

00:11:48.460 So, you know what?

00:11:50.460 I don't have any question about what happened.

00:11:53.460 I don't have any question about what went down.

00:11:57.460 To me, that's confirmatory for confirmation or something.

00:12:02.460 Yeah.

00:12:03.460 All right.

00:12:04.460 Well, so that begs an interesting question.

00:12:07.460 What happens if RFK Jr. had it his way and he could dig into all the CIA's business

00:12:15.460 and suppose he were in charge of the CIA?

00:12:18.460 That would be interesting.

00:12:20.460 But there's a new poll, Harvard and Harris poll, so I guess it's a respected poll.

00:12:27.460 And they did a poll of presidential preferences as we stand now.

00:12:32.460 And if it were just Trump and Biden, Trump would win by, he's up four, four points.

00:12:39.460 Now, remember these are national.

00:12:41.460 So that doesn't mean you would win in all the right districts to win the electoral vote.

00:12:47.460 But it does give you kind of a general feeling of the attitude of the country.

00:12:51.460 But if you throw into the mix Kennedy, Trump's lead increases by 50%.

00:13:00.460 He goes from up four to up six.

00:13:04.460 Now, can we conclude that Kennedy takes votes away from Biden more than he takes votes from Trump?

00:13:17.460 I think so.

00:13:18.460 So this is the first confirmation.

00:13:20.460 And this is what I thought would happen.

00:13:24.460 I thought he would take more from Biden.

00:13:27.460 But if you throw in West, so that there are two third party people running, Kennedy and West,

00:13:36.460 Trump's lead goes up to seven.

00:13:39.460 Every time you throw in a third party, Trump's base tends to be sticky and other candidates are a little less sticky.

00:13:49.460 So they lose support whenever there's another person.

00:13:52.460 Or now West, yes.

00:13:54.460 If Trump ran against Harris instead, he would be up by seven.

00:14:01.460 And if Biden ran against Nikki Haley, Biden would win by four.

00:14:12.460 I don't know how Trump can survive.

00:14:14.460 I mean, I feel like they're going to have to.

00:14:16.460 I hate to say it.

00:14:18.460 Well, short of him being the victim of something horrible, how do they keep him out of office?

00:14:29.460 And can they allow him to get back in office knowing that he's going to rip the lid off of everything?

00:14:35.460 Or at least he tried.

00:14:37.460 I don't know.

00:14:39.460 I'm real worried about his health.

00:14:40.460 I got to be honest.

00:14:42.460 Well, here's some fake news based on real news.

00:14:47.460 China has moved multiple warships into the Middle East.

00:14:52.460 So China's big boats are over there with America's strike force.

00:14:58.460 I guess we've got two carrier strike groups over there.

00:15:02.460 But it sounded on first report, it sounded like this was to counter the American power.

00:15:09.460 On second look, it looks like it was just a planned, they had some planned maritime naval practice.

00:15:19.460 What do you call it?

00:15:21.460 What do you call it when the military practices?

00:15:24.460 What's that called?

00:15:25.460 Exercise.

00:15:26.460 Yes.

00:15:27.460 So they had some exercise.

00:15:28.460 It might be just that.

00:15:31.460 But the United States, does it seem to you like Biden is stealthily preparing for war that would involve America without saying, hey, we're getting ready for war?

00:15:46.460 I feel like there's something missing in the process, as in some honesty, as in if this happens, American boots will be on the ground.

00:15:59.460 I don't like just sort of being over there and being ready.

00:16:03.460 And then America not being told at the same time that we don't have a speaker of the house.

00:16:11.460 I don't like anything about this.

00:16:14.460 I think it probably makes sense from a commander in chief perspective.

00:16:18.460 You got to put your military where it might make a difference.

00:16:21.460 It definitely might make a difference, at least mentally.

00:16:24.460 The psychology of the situation is certainly different because our military is there.

00:16:29.460 But I do worry that we're preparing for war without the permission of Congress and without the full knowledge of the citizens.

00:16:43.460 That's what it feels like.

00:16:46.460 Well, let's talk about why Israel has not attacked yet in terms of their ground attack.

00:16:54.460 One theory is that Biden is restraining them.

00:16:58.460 In other words, Biden said don't go in and kill a bunch of innocent people while trying to get the bad guys.

00:17:05.460 So that's possible.

00:17:07.460 So that's certainly a force that's working on them.

00:17:10.460 It's not the only force that's happening.

00:17:12.460 Anatoly Lubarsky added that it probably takes three weeks after mobilization to actually be ready to launch.

00:17:21.460 Now that matches my point of view, that it just takes longer than they've had so far to just get ready.

00:17:31.460 Because they don't want to be partly ready.

00:17:35.460 Now here's a really ugly thought.

00:17:38.460 The ground invasion or not, or how it goes or how it doesn't go, is largely an economic decision.

00:17:46.460 Isn't that ugly?

00:17:48.460 It's an economic decision.

00:17:50.460 And the reason is because it would be really expensive to surround Gaza and just wait. 0.72

00:17:57.460 Waiting is very expensive.

00:18:00.460 I mean, war is expensive too.

00:18:02.460 But if they're going to have the war anyway, you don't want to have the war plus the expense of the siege.

00:18:10.460 That's a lot of expense.

00:18:12.460 So there's, I hate to say it, but there's an economic force, which is they can't wait forever.

00:18:19.460 It would just be too expensive.

00:18:21.460 You can't turn it into a permanent outdoor jail and just do a better job of security.

00:18:28.460 I think that's the comic Dave Smith approach, just do better security.

00:18:32.460 And not just, but that being a big part of it.

00:18:35.460 So the timing of it is going to be based on economics probably, which is the creepiest, most disgusting thought you could ever have in your life.

00:18:48.460 But it's also the real world, right?

00:18:50.460 Money is an asset of the military.

00:18:53.460 You don't have money, you don't have an army.

00:18:55.460 So it's always money.

00:18:57.460 It's just that there are bullets flying at the same time.

00:19:00.460 All right. 0.97

00:19:05.460 Apparently, Israel has created a special unit to hunt and kill every participant in the Hamas terror attack.

00:19:13.460 How would they know exactly?

00:19:16.460 I guess somehow they might be able to capture a list of who was involved.

00:19:21.460 So I don't even know how they would know who to go after.

00:19:24.460 But that's very Israel. 0.92

00:19:26.460 I think the psychology of that is great.

00:19:29.460 The psychology of it is to tell the citizens, no matter how long it takes, because they've done this before, you know, no matter how long it takes, we will get every one of them.

00:19:40.460 And I think they mean it.

00:19:42.460 And I think they will take as long as it takes.

00:19:46.460 So Joel Pollack is over there now reporting.

00:19:49.460 And I can't stop thinking about how terrible that would be to be over there.

00:19:57.460 To actually just put yourself in the most stressful country in the world right now, where apparently the entire country is just in war mode.

00:20:08.460 And everybody's mind is focused on this as it should be.

00:20:11.460 And I can't even imagine just seeing the evidence of the devastation and having to just put your head in that situation.

00:20:20.460 It definitely makes me feel.

00:20:22.460 Has anybody had this feeling this week?

00:20:24.460 That I'd have moments where I'm just petting my dog and, you know, completely relaxed.

00:20:31.460 And then I would think about how bad it is, you know, in the Middle East and other places.

00:20:37.460 And I'd feel kind of guilty.

00:20:40.460 And I was also feeling like maybe it won't last.

00:20:43.460 You know, I feel like my peace is not going to last.

00:20:50.460 It feels like all of this is coming for us.

00:20:53.460 I just don't know when.

00:20:55.460 That's what it feels like.

00:20:57.460 But we can be smart and maybe push it back.

00:21:03.460 Well, Vivek Ramaswamy is very outspoken in a good way.

00:21:09.460 I think he's adding lots of good context and comparisons and giving us stuff to think about about Gaza.

00:21:16.460 And he's very opposed to combining the funding package into one big let's go to war package.

00:21:23.460 And I'm opposed to that, too, on system and process grounds.

00:21:29.460 That's different from being opposed to the funding of each.

00:21:32.460 That's a separate question.

00:21:33.460 I'm against putting them together.

00:21:35.460 We absolutely have to vote on war individually.

00:21:40.460 You know what you don't want to vote on?

00:21:43.460 Oh, how about war plus the farm package?

00:21:47.460 No.

00:21:48.460 Sorry.

00:21:49.460 Get the farm back.

00:21:50.460 Well, that's not a real thing.

00:21:51.460 I'm making that up.

00:21:52.460 Get the farm package out of there.

00:21:54.460 How about war or war plus climate change?

00:21:57.460 Nope.

00:21:58.460 Nope.

00:21:59.460 War has got to be by itself.

00:22:02.460 There's no wiggle room there.

00:22:04.460 And indeed, I don't ever want a Speaker of the House if such Speaker of the House is going to put war packages together or war with anything else.

00:22:16.460 It's got to be war by itself.

00:22:19.460 Some of the other stuff, you know, the other pork and stuff, I can kind of see why maybe there's some advantages and disadvantages of combining them sometimes.

00:22:30.460 But you don't bundle war. 0.99

00:22:35.460 Bundling war together is just a big old fuck you to the citizens of the United States. 0.99

00:22:40.460 That is disrespectful. 0.99

00:22:43.460 That's not even politics.

00:22:45.460 That is just pure disrespectful.

00:22:49.460 And I don't think I've seen anything like this in politics before, where it's not really an opinion or a preference.

00:22:58.460 This is just pure disrespect for the citizens and the voters.

00:23:02.460 That's all I feel.

00:23:04.460 Like, I feel it's a bad problem and needs to be solved.

00:23:07.460 My visceral feeling is, my God, you have no respect for the citizens whatsoever. 0.99

00:23:13.460 To even imagine that you would combine these two things just to shove it down our fucking throats. 1.00

00:23:20.460 Yeah. 1.00

00:23:21.460 Unacceptable.

00:23:22.460 So, I'm 100% behind Vivek on the don't put the funding into one package.

00:23:29.460 The other thing he says, and again, this is a great addition to the debate.

00:23:36.460 One of the things that Vivek is so valuable for, win or lose, is that he broadens and improves the debate wherever he goes, even if you disagree with him.

00:23:47.460 He has very clear points about it, defends his points, and extends the argument into places where it hasn't been extended but needs to be.

00:23:58.460 It's so positive.

00:23:59.460 But one of the things he says is that he wouldn't be in favor of, I think, funding unless the, unless Israel has a plan for what happens to the Palestinians after the ground defensive.

00:24:12.460 Do you agree with that or not? 0.76

00:24:14.460 Do you say to yourself, well, screw them. 0.96

00:24:17.460 It's not Israel's problem. 0.89

00:24:19.460 Why should they have a plan?

00:24:20.460 Now, remember, the plan doesn't mean Israel will fix everything.

00:24:25.460 It doesn't have to be, but it could be a plan for how Palestinians will survive.

00:24:31.460 The plan could include, we're going to, we're going to build a, let's say, multi-government coalition of Arab countries to manage and help the Palestinians.

00:24:44.460 Something like that, right?

00:24:47.460 So it doesn't have to be on Israel's dime.

00:24:50.460 If you tell me Israel shouldn't spend the penny to help even the innocent suffering Palestinians, I would say, ah, I can see that. 1.00

00:24:59.460 In a normal situation, you'd say humanity has to win over politics and all that other stuff.

00:25:06.460 But in this specific situation, I think Israel has a right to walk away and just say, you know what, there are a lot of Muslims in the world.

00:25:17.460 If you can't take care of each other, don't ask my religion to do it. 1.00

00:25:21.460 Because that's basically what's happening.

00:25:24.460 People are saying, hey, our religion is failing.

00:25:26.460 Can your religion come over here and take care of us? 1.00

00:25:28.460 And how about no?

00:25:30.460 And I'm not sure that that's cruel, given that there are many wealthy Arab Islamic countries surrounding the area with a deep interest in the well-being of these people.

00:25:42.460 Let them take all of it.

00:25:45.460 I think that's what I'd do.

00:25:47.460 So I like Vivek's addition that there should be a plan, but I would disagree that that plan should be increasing the taxes on Israelis. 0.51

00:25:59.460 You know, I don't think Israelis should be taxed to take care of the Palestinians. 1.00

00:26:05.460 That's too far under the current circumstance.

00:26:09.460 Before, maybe it was more of a conversation before.

00:26:12.460 But now, nope.

00:26:14.460 I would say complete divorce and make it permanent. 0.61

00:26:18.460 That would be my take on that.

00:26:21.460 And I definitely wouldn't open the border to let anybody come in and work ever again. 1.00

00:26:26.460 Wouldn't do that.

00:26:27.460 Just because of the risk.

00:26:32.460 Let's see.

00:26:33.460 Let's also talk about what's going to happen next.

00:26:36.460 Let's use, I like to use what I call the movie script prediction method.

00:26:43.460 I've talked about this many times.

00:26:45.460 It's the idea that reality follows movies.

00:26:48.460 And movies have this three-act scenario.

00:26:52.460 And the key act is the third act where the heroes have an unsolvable problem.

00:26:58.460 That's where we are.

00:26:59.460 That's where we are.

00:27:01.460 Israel has an unsolvable problem from a movie script perspective.

00:27:07.460 That is to say, if they don't go in with a ground attack, that would be like losing.

00:27:15.460 Israel would just leave Hamas intact. 0.93

00:27:17.460 They would reconstitute.

00:27:19.460 Someday they'd come back and attack.

00:27:21.460 So they can't do nothing.

00:27:23.460 They don't have an option of not doing a ground attack.

00:27:26.460 But if they do the ground attack, it's guaranteed to have, you know, unacceptable losses on civilians.

00:27:36.460 And you can guarantee that those unacceptable losses will be magnified forever to become a stain on Israel's reputation that will hurt them in different ways as much as if they did or didn't do the ground assault.

00:27:52.460 So they have two ways to go and they're both losing directions.

00:27:55.460 Don't do a ground assault.

00:27:57.460 You definitely lose.

00:27:58.460 Do a ground assault.

00:28:00.460 There definitely be too many civilian deaths and you lose.

00:28:04.460 So they only have two choices and they're both guaranteed loss.

00:28:08.460 Do you agree so far?

00:28:10.460 That's what the third act looks like.

00:28:12.460 No matter what you do, it's all bad.

00:28:15.460 You don't have any path to victory.

00:28:18.460 So, how does a movie get resolved when the third act presents an impossibility to the hero?

00:28:25.460 Well, it's always the same way.

00:28:28.460 Some clever solution that was not obvious to the viewers of the movie.

00:28:33.460 That's what makes it fun to watch.

00:28:35.460 But in the real world, that's also what happens.

00:28:39.460 It's going to be a third option.

00:28:41.460 And here's what I predict.

00:28:43.460 I predict the third option.

00:28:45.460 The third option is that Israel shows the world the most clever way to handle this situation.

00:28:54.460 Like so clever, it becomes a standard for this kind of warfare for the rest of time.

00:29:01.460 Here's what I don't think they're going to do.

00:29:04.460 Knock on doors and get, you know, get IED and booby-trapped and take huge losses.

00:29:11.460 I don't think that's going to happen.

00:29:13.460 Here's what I think.

00:29:14.460 I think that they're getting super active, the Israelis and allies, in figuring out technical

00:29:23.460 solutions to Hamas.

00:29:26.460 And that would include, some people have suggested ideas.

00:29:31.460 One would be to filter the good people out of the Hamas-controlled areas, which is happening. 0.98

00:29:38.460 I call it the filter fence.

00:29:41.460 The filter fence is where you let all the good people out, so that all that's left is

00:29:46.460 that people want to be there for whatever reason.

00:29:48.460 And then you just turn it into a prison.

00:29:51.460 Now, if you make the area small enough, if you can chew away at the edges, then it's

00:29:58.460 easier to control the entire perimeter of, let's say, a little piece of northern Gaza,

00:30:04.460 you know, way, way easier than trying to control the entire perimeter.

00:30:07.460 Now, there's still tunneling and, you know, paragliding and the ways they can get out.

00:30:12.460 But if you are super serious about putting a, let's say, a drone, a permanent drone army

00:30:19.460 in the air over it, you could probably turn it into a technological prison where if anybody

00:30:26.460 gets out, a drone is activated and hunts them down and it just kills them where they're

00:30:31.460 running.

00:30:32.460 You could probably come up with some technical solutions for identifying tunnels that we've

00:30:39.460 not seen before.

00:30:41.460 You want to hear the most low-tech idea I ever had?

00:30:46.460 You take a Roomba, one of those little vacuum cleaner robots, and you put it in, if you find

00:30:53.460 one of the tunnel openings, it wouldn't be hard to find one.

00:30:56.460 You just put the Roomba in there.

00:30:59.460 And you let it map the entire inside of the tunnels.

00:31:04.460 Now, you'd have to have some way to get the signal out before they destroyed it.

00:31:09.460 So you put the Roomba in, and it just goes Roomba, Roomba, and it figures out where the

00:31:14.460 walls are.

00:31:15.460 It kind of maps the place, you know, until the first terrorist sees it and then blows it

00:31:19.460 out. 0.99

00:31:20.460 But then you send something down to kill that terrorist and then send in another Roomba. 0.99

00:31:25.460 And you just destroy them with Roombas, you know, little robots with bombs on them. 0.60

00:31:33.460 So the problem with using robotics or drones is that you will lose your signal, right?

00:31:41.460 If you send in a little drone, like a little flying drone into a tunnel, eventually it would

00:31:46.460 lose signal.

00:31:47.460 But there are new technologies, and in fact, I just talked about one yesterday, in which

00:31:54.460 you can put AI onto the device with the small little chip, which they have an alpha version

00:32:01.460 of it right now, that would make AI-related decisions on its own once it lost signal.

00:32:08.460 So we're pretty close to, you know, Skylink kind of thing.

00:32:14.460 Because the intelligence to make their own decisions is going into drones, and it's happening

00:32:20.460 now.

00:32:21.460 Like that's current technology, is putting an entire AI onto a chip, putting it in the robot,

00:32:29.460 and then the robot goes off and makes its own decisions from that point on.

00:32:33.460 That's real.

00:32:34.460 That's current technology.

00:32:36.460 So, could it be that some of the robots that would normally be used clear on a tunnel,

00:32:44.460 normally you would use it remotely with some remote control, but maybe they send some independent

00:32:50.460 ones down there.

00:32:52.460 And maybe they send as many as you need.

00:32:55.460 You know, just keep sending them.

00:32:57.460 Just keep making them and sending them.

00:32:59.460 And you know, they'd get destroyed.

00:33:01.460 But before they did, you know, maybe some would get back.

00:33:05.460 Maybe some would find out how to send a signal, something like that.

00:33:08.460 So you'd end up mapping and killing everything in the tunnels without ever going down in a

00:33:13.460 tunnel.

00:33:14.460 You had enough robots and AI.

00:33:16.460 The other possibility is just gas.

00:33:20.460 I believe I saw the son of the leader of Hamas, who is pro-Israel and anti-Hamas, weirdly.

00:33:28.460 So, he was actually saying, you're probably going to need to use gas.

00:33:35.460 To which I said, huh, what kind of gas?

00:33:38.460 And I thought, could be all kinds.

00:33:41.460 Somebody suggested skunk.

00:33:45.460 Why not?

00:33:46.460 Why not put a smell down there that's so bad that you just couldn't exist without a gas

00:33:53.460 mask?

00:33:54.460 Yeah.

00:33:55.460 We could drop Eric Swalwell down there.

00:33:59.460 Just dangle him on a rope.

00:34:01.460 Let him do the rest.

00:34:04.460 Or other possibilities are sleeping gas, et cetera.

00:34:09.460 But the one that I like to suggest is, they should be running out of that Captagon drug

00:34:16.460 pretty soon.

00:34:18.460 If you wait long enough.

00:34:19.460 So that's the one that makes them, you know, stay up all night and want to fight and do horrible

00:34:24.460 things.

00:34:25.460 As I've said before, Israel should already be making fake versions of Captagon. 0.99

00:34:32.460 So that, you know, four out of five are either normal Captagon or they're a little underpowered.

00:34:39.460 And the fifth one's just an overdose waiting to happen.

00:34:42.460 You know, the fifth one's actually designed to kill you, but it's mixed in with the ones

00:34:47.460 that aren't.

00:34:48.460 And you want to get rid of all of their legal forms so that their only choices are Russian 1.00

00:34:55.460 roulette with the next pill.

00:34:57.460 Because I'm guessing that they're addicted.

00:34:59.460 What do you think?

00:35:01.460 You think the Captagon has already made them addicted?

00:35:04.460 Like if they run out, there's nothing that they're going to do not to get some more.

00:35:09.460 So if you can give them deadly Captagon at the same time they run out and they're addicted,

00:35:16.460 they're going to start popping the stuff that kills one out of five people.

00:35:20.460 Right.

00:35:21.460 Because they're like, well, four out of five chance, that's not bad.

00:35:28.460 Yeah.

00:35:29.460 The ADL is embarrassing itself in the midst of this Hamas situation. 0.96

00:35:37.460 They put out a statement saying white supremacists, still a big problem.

00:35:42.460 Not really reading the room right.

00:35:45.460 What have the white supremacists done lately?

00:35:48.460 Can you think of anything that white supremacists have done?

00:35:52.460 Well, I can think of something.

00:35:54.460 Let's see if you can think of something else.

00:35:56.460 Here's something that white supremacists have done recently.

00:36:01.460 Backed Israel. 0.98

00:36:06.460 That's all I need to say about that.

00:36:09.460 All right.

00:36:11.460 And not, you know, because I don't think that they're crazy about Hamas is what I think.

00:36:19.460 Well, my old nemesis, Chen, who some say is a Chinese operative, but Chen says no.

00:36:28.460 He's just a guy on the X platform saying stuff.

00:36:32.460 But he's talking about the British Broadcasting Company, which some call the BBC.

00:36:38.460 He points out that it said that 1,400 Israelis were, quote, massacred, but 4,000 Palestinians were, quote, killed.

00:36:49.460 And Chen points out, it's extreme bias in choosing the words is staggering.

00:36:55.460 Well, okay, it does matter the intention, doesn't it?

00:37:02.460 The Hamas were intending to slaughter and, you know, disembowel people.

00:37:08.460 That was literally what they were planning to do, and then they did it.

00:37:12.460 The Israelis were trying to protect themselves and trying to avoid civilian deaths if they could.

00:37:18.460 Not really the same, Chen.

00:37:21.460 But I only pointed out not because he makes a good point or not even a bad point. 0.99

00:37:25.460 It's just sort of a stupid point. 0.99

00:37:27.460 But it's sort of anti-Israel. 0.99

00:37:32.460 And he's a, I believe he's an approved Chinese voice in their foreign influence campaign.

00:37:40.460 So that would mean that he's sort of a suggestive of what Chinese leadership would also say.

00:37:49.460 So they seem to be taking sides.

00:37:52.460 Have you seen the story that's partially fake news about Biden paying cash for his beach house, the one he uses now?

00:38:01.460 So at some point back in 2017, I guess, he paid 2.75 million in cash for his Rehoboth Beach home.

00:38:15.460 He paid cash.

00:38:16.460 Who pays cash for a house? 0.64

00:38:20.460 Some people.

00:38:22.460 But it's suggested by the people who are, you know, chasing his bad behavior that this is a symbol of the sort of thing he's doing with or was doing with his ill-gotten criminal gains from selling his influence or something like that. 0.99

00:38:42.460 But to me, it just looks like a bullshit story. 0.99

00:38:46.460 You know why? 0.99

00:38:48.460 So remember, the propaganda isn't only coming from the left.

00:38:53.460 So this was pure propaganda I saw on the right.

00:38:57.460 So the story starts out saying, blah, blah, Biden crime family.

00:39:01.460 So you're all primed to think this is a criminal thing.

00:39:04.460 And then they tell you you paid cash for a $2.75 million home.

00:39:09.460 And you're thinking, whoa, on a senator's salary or a vice president's salary?

00:39:15.460 Can you do that?

00:39:16.460 And then at the end of the article, it says that it was about the same time he got $11 million in royalties for his book.

00:39:29.460 Isn't that the whole story?

00:39:32.460 He made a lot of money on a book and then he bought a beach house.

00:39:35.460 The fact that the anti-Biden people tied together what looks like a public and completely understanding the source of money, but put that at the end of the article.

00:39:53.460 Here's how that article should have been.

00:39:55.460 I forget who wrote it, but it doesn't matter.

00:39:57.460 The article should have said, at about the same time he was making millions of dollars on his book, he bought a beach house.

00:40:06.460 That's it.

00:40:07.460 That should have been the whole story.

00:40:09.460 Why did we assume that this money came from some other source when he got paid $11 million?

00:40:18.460 Well, the fact that it was worded all of his bad behavior first.

00:40:23.460 Oh, bad behavior, bad behavior.

00:40:26.460 But he also bought a beach house for cash.

00:40:29.460 So the bad behavior and the cash he paid for the beach house, that must be the same story, right?

00:40:34.460 That's what the Democrats do to you.

00:40:37.460 That's what the Democrats do.

00:40:39.460 You know, if you see a story like that from your own side, you know, let's say you lean right and it's a right leading entity that writes it. 1.00

00:40:48.460 That's just bullshit, right? 0.99

00:40:50.460 Now, I'm not defending Joe Biden. 1.00

00:40:54.460 I'm saying you're going to need to do better than that.

00:40:57.460 But if you're proving he made a whole bunch of legal money that's well disclosed, and then he spent some of it, that should be the whole story.

00:41:06.460 Separately, maybe he did some, you know, scabby things.

00:41:11.460 But that's separate.

00:41:12.460 I wouldn't put those together.

00:41:14.460 So the propaganda is not coming from just one direction.

00:41:20.460 Just be aware of that.

00:41:23.460 Is writing a book a good way to make $11 million?

00:41:27.460 Well, let me explain book publishing.

00:41:31.460 Number one, it could be a way to launder funds.

00:41:36.460 In other words, if he got an unusually high advance for his book, you know, way more than they expected to sell the books, that would be suggestive that maybe there's a publisher who wanted a favor from somebody in the government.

00:41:52.460 So they were willing to overpay a little bit.

00:41:55.460 You know, maybe there's a billionaire involved with the publisher who was willing to subsidize a little bit of their overpayment.

00:42:02.460 So there are a million ways that you could do some sketchy things that launder money by overpaying for a book.

00:42:09.460 And that's probably what happened, given the players involved and the fact that they sell influence for a living, you know, legally, perhaps.

00:42:19.460 I don't know that Joe or Hunter did anything illegal, but it's obvious they were selling influence.

00:42:25.460 That part seems well-established by everybody, basically.

00:42:30.460 So be careful of that.

00:42:34.460 Yeah.

00:42:37.460 Having said that, there's something sketchy happening with the Biden family.

00:42:43.460 We just don't know exactly what.

00:42:46.460 Oh, let me finish one other point about book advances.

00:42:52.460 If you say to yourself, Scott, the likely number of total sales of a Biden book could never justify an $11 million or whatever the advance was.

00:43:03.460 We don't know what the advance was.

00:43:05.460 Could never, never justify that much of a payment.

00:43:08.460 Here's what you need to know about publishers.

00:43:11.460 For the big name books, and he would be a big name book.

00:43:16.460 They don't often, they don't always try to make money.

00:43:19.460 Did you know that?

00:43:21.460 Sometimes they, they will overpay for a big name author so that they can tell the next author, well, we have this author.

00:43:30.460 I mean, we just did the big Biden book, so you should work with us.

00:43:35.460 It's almost marketing.

00:43:37.460 So a big publishing house will overpay a big name.

00:43:40.460 And how do I know this?

00:43:42.460 This happened to me.

00:43:44.460 When, when Dilbert was a huge, well-respected hit, I, I negotiated a big book deal after I'd written the Dilbert principle and it was a number one book.

00:43:58.460 But when they, when they offered the advance for, it was like a five book deal, even I could tell they were overpaying.

00:44:06.460 I mean, it was obvious to me that I would never sell that many books.

00:44:10.460 Uh, but the advance was so good that of course I said, yes, it was their, it was their risk to take.

00:44:15.460 So I took their money.

00:44:16.460 They took the risk.

00:44:17.460 And do you think that they sold enough books to justify the advance?

00:44:23.460 Probably not.

00:44:25.460 Probably one or two of the books.

00:44:26.460 Yes.

00:44:27.460 But probably the entire five book catalog.

00:44:32.460 Probably not.

00:44:34.460 But they said directly at one point that they like to have, you know, big names in their stable.

00:44:41.460 And as long as I came, you know, close to break even, then it was a marketing thing and they win.

00:44:47.460 So I heard that directly.

00:44:49.460 So yes, Biden might've been overpaid, uh, because there was something sketchy going on, but he could have been overpaid just because that's exactly how publishers operate.

00:44:59.460 They overpay for the big name books.

00:45:03.460 All right.

00:45:04.460 Housing costs have doubled since 2019.

00:45:07.460 What?

00:45:08.460 Uh, at least the affordability of a new home has doubled.

00:45:13.460 Uh, wait, no, your dollar goes half as far as it did at the end of 2020.

00:45:19.460 Yeah.

00:45:20.460 So basically same, same story.

00:45:23.460 Uh, wow.

00:45:26.460 Wow.

00:45:27.460 All right.

00:45:28.460 Here's a little story that, uh, I have to wonder about.

00:45:32.460 You'll probably wonder the same thing.

00:45:34.460 So Trump has a new video out campaign video, um, in which it shows people being brainwashed by Hillary and uses, and even Trump did a truth post on it in which he said brainwashed.

00:45:52.460 So they're using the word brainwashed and they're using the video of Hillary saying that she wants to deprogram Trump supporters.

00:46:00.460 So Trump has gone directly at the brainwashing propaganda part of the Democrat engine, which is pretty interesting.

00:46:11.460 Yeah.

00:46:12.460 Yeah.

00:46:13.460 I don't know that anybody's gone after that directly before had they, but it's exactly what's happening.

00:46:18.460 It's a brainwashing operation.

00:46:20.460 And if he can, if he can convince anybody that it is, that's an interesting line of attack.

00:46:29.460 And the beauty of it is you don't have to argue about policy if you're arguing about whether there's a brainwashing operation because the brainwashing operation, you can simply point to it.

00:46:41.460 It's like, well, here's another example.

00:46:43.460 And, and it also creates a confirmation bias trap.

00:46:47.460 Have you ever seen him do that before?

00:46:49.460 It's classic Trump when he nicknamed Hillary Clinton as crooked Hillary, it was because he knew for sure that during the campaign, there would be new things that come out allegations that you would say to yourself, huh?

00:47:05.460 That sounds like Hillary did something crooked. 1.00

00:47:07.460 Oh, of course she's crooked Hillary makes perfect sense. 1.00

00:47:11.460 And then your brain stores all of her crooked deeds under his framing, crooked Hillary. 1.00

00:47:17.460 So he's literally changing the real estate in your brain with these nicknames that make all the information seem like confirmation, but it could be confirmation bias.

00:47:28.460 Right.

00:47:29.460 So now when he calls down brainwashing, every time you see something that looks like it's in that domain, you're going to say, instead of that's a lie, which you would have said otherwise, you can say, Oh, that's what Trump's talking about.

00:47:44.460 There's that brainwashing. 0.62

00:47:46.460 So he's created another little, little rental property in your head.

00:47:52.460 And he calls it brainwashing.

00:47:54.460 Now, every time you see something that you would have interpreted as just a lie or just politics or something like that, you're going to say to yourself, Hey, are they trying to brainwash me?

00:48:05.460 Who are they trying to brainwash? 0.99

00:48:07.460 So, this is probably brilliant.

00:48:11.460 Probably brilliant.

00:48:14.460 The gaslighting thing never worked.

00:48:17.460 Because everybody's gaslighting everybody and nobody knows what the word means exactly.

00:48:21.460 But everybody knows what brainwash he means.

00:48:25.460 Yeah.

00:48:26.460 Everybody knows what brainwash he is. 0.89

00:48:28.460 So that's the perfect Trump frame.

00:48:32.460 A word we all know that's a confirmation trap for the future.

00:48:36.460 He's so good at this.

00:48:42.460 I have a way to spot the brainwashed, which annoys me because I think that I've used it myself.

00:48:50.460 So I'm going to tell you how to spot brainwashing people.

00:48:55.460 But you don't need to tell me.

00:48:57.460 But Scott, I feel like I've seen you do that.

00:49:00.460 To which I say, I have done that.

00:49:04.460 Was I brainwashed?

00:49:06.460 If you're not at least asking yourself that question, you're brainwashed.

00:49:11.460 But let me say that as clearly as possible.

00:49:14.460 If you're not continuously asking yourself, is somebody brainwashing me right now?

00:49:19.460 You know, when you're looking at political stuff, you're being brainwashed.

00:49:22.460 The only defense is if you're asking yourself every single time something happens, which I do.

00:49:28.460 That doesn't, it's not a complete protection.

00:49:30.460 You know, smart people, well-informed people could be brainwashed.

00:49:34.460 But it's at least a little bit of something.

00:49:37.460 It's not nothing.

00:49:39.460 So I'm asking myself about this.

00:49:41.460 But here's the tell.

00:49:42.460 I saw this today on the X platform, a user named James English.

00:49:47.460 So he was in a back and forth debate with some folks about what is true or not true about something Trump related.

00:49:56.460 But he ends with this, responding to someone else, not to me.

00:50:01.460 He goes, no, it means I follow facts.

00:50:04.460 You follow beliefs.

00:50:06.460 You should seek help.

00:50:07.460 There it is.

00:50:08.460 You should seek help.

00:50:09.460 It truly is a sickness.

00:50:11.460 Or maybe you are a child.

00:50:13.460 Because only children follow beliefs.

00:50:15.460 Adults follow facts. 0.78

00:50:17.460 Now that's a brainwashed person.

00:50:21.460 All right.

00:50:23.460 So let me break it down.

00:50:24.460 So here's somebody who believes that the person they're talking to is the only person in politics who doesn't think facts matter.

00:50:34.460 And that they're just operating on belief.

00:50:37.460 It's just this one person.

00:50:39.460 Not just one.

00:50:41.460 And that that's the only problem here.

00:50:44.460 Is that one of them doesn't believe in facts and they're following beliefs.

00:50:47.460 Now, that's the most universal thing that everybody thinks about everybody.

00:50:51.460 But here's the here's the one that's really to tell you should seek help.

00:50:56.460 Once a person believes that the other person's point of view is so crazy that they completely give up on debating it.

00:51:05.460 There are one or two possibilities. 0.97

00:51:08.460 They're talking to somebody who actually is just crazy.

00:51:11.460 And they're, you know, in their own little world. 0.79

00:51:14.460 Or the person who's talking is the one who's brainwashed and when presented with a good argument or new facts that counter their opinion, they immediately go to the badness of the person.

00:51:27.460 So here's the tell.

00:51:29.460 If they start with facts, but end up with seek help, you don't believe facts.

00:51:36.460 They're, they're probably brainwashed, but it doesn't.

00:51:41.460 It doesn't eliminate the possibility that the person they're talking about is brainwashed.

00:51:46.460 So it's a little tricky.

00:51:47.460 But certainly if somebody has, if you've retreated from, let me say this in a more crisp way.

00:51:56.460 If you've completely retreated from the idea of arguing about the facts and now you've, you've gone to there's something wrong with you.

00:52:06.460 You're just broken.

00:52:08.460 Uh, one of you is brainwashed or both.

00:52:12.460 That's what's happening there.

00:52:14.460 Yeah.

00:52:15.460 But like I say, since I've been, I've been the one to tell people to seek help, because in my mind, it did look like they just had a mental problem.

00:52:24.460 Some kind of TDS.

00:52:26.460 Uh, so it makes me wonder, huh, what if I'm brainwashed when I say that?

00:52:32.460 Just something to think about.

00:52:35.460 All right, ladies and gentlemen.

00:52:38.460 All right, I got some questions I could answer.

00:52:47.460 I think we've done what we need to do today.

00:52:50.460 It's time for brunch.

00:52:52.460 Exactly.

00:52:53.460 You should all go off and have an amazing Sunday today.

00:52:56.460 Um, and, uh, enjoy, uh, enjoy all the good times.

00:53:03.460 If you have them, because it's a precarious world.

00:53:06.460 I do think the United States will be fine.

00:53:09.460 Uh, certainly in your lifetime.

00:53:12.460 But, uh, we got a lot of stuff to take care of.

00:53:15.460 You have to fix a lot of stuff.

00:53:17.460 So let's go fix a lot of stuff.

00:53:20.460 And, uh, we'll be fine.

00:53:22.460 And I think Israel is going to be clever.

00:53:24.460 So remember my prediction.

00:53:26.460 It won't be a standard ground defensive.

00:53:29.460 And it won't be no ground defensive.

00:53:32.460 It will be the most innovative ground defensive you've ever seen.

00:53:39.460 There'll be things you've never seen before.

00:53:41.460 So look for that.

00:53:44.460 And I will talk to you maybe in the man cave.

00:53:49.460 Right?

00:53:50.460 Bye for now.

00:53:54.460 Bye for now.

00:53:59.460 Bye well.

00:54:00.460 Bye for now.

00:54:01.460 Bye.

00:54:02.460 Bye.

00:54:03.460 Bye for now, everybody.

00:54:06.460 Bye.

00:54:08.460 I'm here.

00:54:09.460 Bye.

00:54:10.460 Bye.

00:54:11.460 Bye.

00:54:12.460 Bye.

00:54:16.460 Bye.

00:54:17.460 Bye.

00:54:20.460 Goodbye.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - October 22, 2023

Episode 2269 Scott Adams： CWSA 10⧸22⧸23

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