Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2272 Scott Adams： CWSA Odds Of War & A 2024 Election Prediction

00:00:00.000 Bum, bum, bum, ra-ba-ba.

00:00:04.620 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of human civilization.

00:00:09.620 While it lasts.

00:00:11.300 It's called Coffee with Scott Adams.

00:00:12.980 Some people call it Colonizing with Scott Adams, but that's not fair.

00:00:16.700 And if you'd like to take your experience up to levels that nobody has even imagined before,

00:00:22.360 well, all you need for that is a copper mug or a glass, a tanker chalice or stein,

00:00:26.720 a canteen jug or flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:29.140 Fill it with your favorite liquid, I like coffee.

00:00:33.160 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day,

00:00:38.040 the thing that's making everything better.

00:00:39.760 It's called a simultaneous sip, and it can stop wars if you let it go.

00:00:51.880 So good, so good.

00:00:54.260 Well, let's talk about all the things today.

00:00:59.620 Have you read any good books?

00:01:03.400 I've got a book that might be suspiciously appropriate for the news today.

00:01:10.740 You've probably heard of it.

00:01:12.240 If you tried to buy this book, you couldn't do it.

00:01:14.320 This is an unbuyable book.

00:01:18.780 So I wrote it years ago, and it's a fictional story that was really in the form of a prediction.

00:01:26.080 So this was written 2003-ish, I think.

00:01:32.700 And it was a prediction for today.

00:01:37.140 When the Western world, or at least a bunch of powers, are in a major, what I would call a religion war.

00:01:45.720 And it looks like we'll talk about that.

00:01:50.880 But if you could find a copy of this, a used copy, it'll blow your fucking mind about how closely I predicted.

00:02:03.080 So, there's that.

00:02:06.520 All right, let's do, there's a new study.

00:02:10.300 Holy cow, another study, a large, rigorous one.

00:02:13.440 I like them when they're large and rigorous.

00:02:16.860 And it's about multivitamins.

00:02:18.860 You've heard people say, multivitamins?

00:02:21.200 You should take them every day.

00:02:23.400 And other people say, multivitamins?

00:02:26.040 Oh, by the way, you can read The Religion War for free if you're a member of the locals community.

00:02:34.340 So it's on there in text form.

00:02:36.660 So scottadams.locals.com, and then you just search for hashtag the religion war.

00:02:43.240 Or it'll pop right up as a PDF.

00:02:47.120 It's another benefit of membership.

00:02:48.820 Anyway, there's this large study on multivitamins.

00:02:50.980 Some people say they're great.

00:02:52.420 Some people say they make no difference.

00:02:54.160 But this new study says that people who have been taking multivitamins for a long time consistently perform better on common memory tests than those who took a placebo.

00:03:06.340 So I guess that means that taking vitamins improves your memory.

00:03:13.680 Right?

00:03:15.340 Big correlation.

00:03:17.100 It's a study.

00:03:18.560 Peer-reviewed.

00:03:19.520 Peer-reviewed.

00:03:21.560 Well, maybe.

00:03:23.240 That might be exactly what's going on here.

00:03:25.320 Or.

00:03:26.740 Or.

00:03:27.640 Or.

00:03:29.580 Backwards science.

00:03:32.500 Backwards science.

00:03:35.040 That's when the causation is reversed.

00:03:37.740 Now let me ask you a question.

00:03:39.940 If you were to gather together the people from all parts of the country or the world,

00:03:45.120 and you put together the people who have been taking a multivitamin for many years,

00:03:51.220 would those people have anything in common with each other that would be different than the average person?

00:03:59.520 Number one, money.

00:04:02.160 Do you know what poor people don't do?

00:04:04.240 Take a lot of fucking vitamins.

00:04:06.720 That's what they don't do.

00:04:08.240 I don't know if this was controlled for economics.

00:04:10.960 It might have been.

00:04:12.180 But there are other things that they have in common.

00:04:16.080 What's something else that somebody who takes a multivitamin has in common with other multivitamin takers?

00:04:24.460 By the time you're taking a multivitamin, you've already become one of those people.

00:04:30.020 You know what I mean.

00:04:31.260 One of those people who's looking for every advantage.

00:04:34.340 One of those people who actually does exercise.

00:04:37.740 One of those people who actually knows that simple carbs might make you fat.

00:04:41.740 One of those people who might even be a moderate drinker instead of a heavy drinker.

00:04:47.620 Because in all parts of their life, they look for the little advantage, and they're going to try to get it.

00:04:54.080 Now, if you took all the people who look for a little advantage in life, in terms of their health,

00:04:59.300 and you check to see if their memory is better or worse than the people who did everything wrong,

00:05:04.420 or at least didn't take vitamins so they weren't that serious about it,

00:05:08.640 wouldn't you expect the vitamin takers to do better, whether the vitamins work or not?

00:05:15.760 Am I right?

00:05:16.300 So why would the normal assumption be that the vitamins help your memory,

00:05:23.140 instead of just saying, people who do everything right,

00:05:26.780 yeah, they also take a chance on vitamins.

00:05:29.820 Yeah, because they don't hurt you.

00:05:31.340 We have a pretty good history to suggest it won't hurt you to take vitamins.

00:05:37.440 Although there have been times when, you know,

00:05:39.840 I think there were some cases maybe in the past that it could have.

00:05:42.900 But at the moment, I think we think our vitamins are pretty safe,

00:05:45.980 so if you could afford it, you'd probably do it.

00:05:52.180 All right.

00:05:53.340 Backward science.

00:05:58.620 I've got another question for you about causation.

00:06:02.600 I have a hypothesis that goes like this,

00:06:05.240 that the more intelligence experts we have for a given adversary,

00:06:13.740 the more likely we will go to war with them.

00:06:17.940 Now you say to yourself, Scott, you've got it backwards.

00:06:20.960 You've got it all backwards.

00:06:21.880 The causation's backwards, Scott.

00:06:23.360 No.

00:06:23.940 The reason we have lots of intelligence experts for some countries

00:06:27.800 that are our adversaries are because they're our adversaries.

00:06:30.840 That's obviously why you want to promote and educate people

00:06:35.660 to be intelligence experts, because they're already our adversaries.

00:06:40.300 Maybe.

00:06:41.760 Or maybe if you get enough intelligence experts who went to school

00:06:45.820 to figure out what to do if we went to war with Russia,

00:06:49.860 you're going to have a fucking war with Russia,

00:06:52.340 because there are too many people talking about it

00:06:54.460 and they act like they're the experts,

00:06:56.000 and you're not the expert, are you?

00:06:57.880 You're no expert.

00:06:58.640 Did you go to school for Russia?

00:07:00.840 Did you study Russia?

00:07:02.520 No, you didn't.

00:07:03.600 You better listen to those experts.

00:07:05.240 One of them?

00:07:05.880 No.

00:07:06.220 Two of them?

00:07:06.720 No.

00:07:07.020 Three?

00:07:07.420 Oh, my God.

00:07:08.400 There are hundreds.

00:07:09.040 There are now thousands of Russian experts.

00:07:11.880 And if we don't go to war with Russia,

00:07:14.480 they've wasted their educations.

00:07:17.620 Their life is a joke.

00:07:19.500 But if we did, well, that would be their time, wouldn't it?

00:07:24.020 So when these Russian experts,

00:07:25.660 who can only validate their own experience

00:07:27.960 by getting tough with Russia,

00:07:30.120 which would include war,

00:07:31.280 what do you think they recommend?

00:07:33.640 Do you think every time there's a big old meeting with the boss,

00:07:36.140 they say, whatever you do,

00:07:37.280 don't start a war with Russia,

00:07:38.980 because that's going to lead to all kinds of bad stuff

00:07:40.860 and you can't put it back.

00:07:42.420 No.

00:07:43.540 They're going to get tough,

00:07:44.700 because they went to school to get tough on Russia.

00:07:47.080 So I would argue that you could predict war

00:07:53.880 by how many intelligence people have gone through

00:07:56.480 the training to be an expert in that area.

00:08:00.340 Do you think that we have, I'm going to guess,

00:08:03.500 that except for China,

00:08:04.720 where we have probably lots of experts by now,

00:08:07.820 the Middle East and Russia

00:08:10.640 would be the two areas where people have trained the most

00:08:13.760 to work in our intelligence outfits for foreign service.

00:08:18.220 And is there anything happening in the world right now

00:08:21.020 that involves, oh, the Middle East and Russia?

00:08:24.620 Yes.

00:08:25.040 It's exactly what you'd fucking expect

00:08:27.360 by the fact that we're producing people

00:08:29.620 whose jobs and lives can only be justified

00:08:32.820 with a big old conflict.

00:08:37.600 So I'm not sure that anybody's doing anything intentionally.

00:08:40.300 I think it's a follow-the-money situation.

00:08:44.180 If the money went toward training people

00:08:45.900 and they would like to keep their jobs

00:08:47.820 and get promotions,

00:08:49.580 well, peace isn't exactly the way you get there.

00:08:53.420 So people just working on their normal self-interest

00:08:56.360 without even being aware of it.

00:08:58.140 There may be no conscious thought along those lines,

00:09:00.880 but it would still happen

00:09:01.940 just by the fact that there are a lot of them.

00:09:05.420 All right.

00:09:06.480 What about those experts?

00:09:07.680 You think we should trust the experts when it comes to war?

00:09:12.300 Well, I was just watching a reel on Instagram

00:09:15.520 from Guy Kawasaki.

00:09:17.220 He was one of the original Apple founders.

00:09:19.920 He was the marketing guy at the very beginning.

00:09:21.940 I think he was one of the first five or something like that.

00:09:24.640 And he was talking about Steve Jobs' opinion

00:09:26.860 about the experts.

00:09:28.960 Here's what Steve Jobs says about the experts.

00:09:31.180 He said,

00:09:31.980 don't trust the experts

00:09:33.140 because they're old and stodgy

00:09:35.440 and they're sad in their ways,

00:09:37.160 but sometimes trust yourself.

00:09:40.020 Well, that's terrible advice, Steve Jobs.

00:09:42.560 If you ever want to give some bad advice,

00:09:44.500 listen to Steve Jobs.

00:09:45.940 Do you know why Steve Jobs' advice is so bad?

00:09:49.460 Because Steve Jobs gives you advice

00:09:51.500 that is suitable only for Steve Jobs.

00:09:56.120 Only for him.

00:09:57.540 Do you know why?

00:09:58.580 Because he was a genius.

00:10:00.860 Here's the order of who you should trust.

00:10:02.640 Average people, not so much.

00:10:05.460 Wouldn't trust them so much.

00:10:07.500 Experts, I think I would trust the experts

00:10:09.260 more than the average people.

00:10:11.040 But unfortunately,

00:10:12.320 we have these other jerks

00:10:13.800 who are messing up everything

00:10:15.120 by being smart.

00:10:17.900 Who would you trust?

00:10:19.080 Steve Jobs

00:10:19.900 or the computer experts at the time?

00:10:23.880 Steve Jobs.

00:10:24.900 I mean, in retrospect,

00:10:25.940 you would have trusted him.

00:10:27.480 But we only know that now.

00:10:28.800 However,

00:10:31.040 Steve Jobs was not an ordinary person.

00:10:34.260 He was one of the few people

00:10:35.680 that you should trust

00:10:36.620 more than the experts.

00:10:38.700 Now we're watching

00:10:39.760 the country come to war.

00:10:42.920 What are the experts saying?

00:10:45.240 Well, the experts are saying

00:10:46.540 whatever they were already inclined to say

00:10:49.420 before this happened.

00:10:51.120 And what do the people say

00:10:54.300 who are,

00:10:56.240 I will, let's say generously,

00:10:59.340 say that they're geniuses.

00:11:00.980 Now in this context,

00:11:02.360 genius isn't Einstein genius.

00:11:04.580 I just say somebody in the top 2%.

00:11:06.360 The type of person

00:11:08.160 who can get accepted to,

00:11:09.700 let's say an Ivy League school

00:11:11.040 back before their admissions

00:11:13.920 were ridiculous.

00:11:15.660 Do you know anybody like that

00:11:17.120 who is being very outspoken

00:11:18.920 about the potential for war?

00:11:23.440 Yeah, there's Elon Musk.

00:11:25.060 Elon Musk,

00:11:26.320 clearly in the top 2%.

00:11:27.920 No military expert, right?

00:11:31.480 So would you listen to Elon Musk

00:11:33.140 about war

00:11:33.840 or would you listen to the experts?

00:11:36.880 I'm going to go with Elon Musk

00:11:38.460 every time.

00:11:39.940 Why?

00:11:41.080 Because he's smarter

00:11:41.920 than the experts.

00:11:42.600 And the experts are all biased.

00:11:45.020 They've got, you know,

00:11:46.660 they're just steeped in bias,

00:11:49.260 plus their economics

00:11:51.180 are on the line,

00:11:52.100 their promotions,

00:11:53.480 everything.

00:11:54.740 I would never trust the experts

00:11:56.580 over Elon Musk

00:11:57.520 about a military decision.

00:11:59.660 And he's not a military expert.

00:12:01.840 How about David Sachs?

00:12:03.920 One of the original PayPal guys,

00:12:06.660 Stanford,

00:12:07.780 top 2%,

00:12:08.620 easily in the top 2% of IQ.

00:12:11.280 Would you trust somebody

00:12:13.140 in the top 2%?

00:12:14.320 Like, you know,

00:12:15.460 who's also had a, you know,

00:12:16.880 hugely successful career?

00:12:18.600 I would.

00:12:19.940 I would trust him

00:12:20.680 over the experts.

00:12:22.660 Not because he has more expertise,

00:12:25.120 but because in this country,

00:12:27.360 the geniuses are almost always

00:12:29.200 smarter than the experts.

00:12:31.400 As long as we're all

00:12:32.600 sort of looking at

00:12:34.020 similar information.

00:12:35.260 You know, the military

00:12:35.800 has some secret stuff,

00:12:37.320 but probably the most important

00:12:40.860 variables

00:12:41.300 are things we can all see.

00:12:42.780 So in that specific case,

00:12:45.540 the smart people

00:12:46.220 beat the experts

00:12:47.000 most of the time.

00:12:49.900 So, yes,

00:12:51.520 I would be looking at

00:12:52.500 your Vivek Ramaswamis.

00:12:55.300 Is Vivek

00:12:56.360 an average person?

00:12:58.340 Nope.

00:12:59.260 Not even close.

00:13:00.740 Top 2%.

00:13:01.700 Would you trust Vivek's

00:13:03.880 opinion on war

00:13:04.680 over the experts?

00:13:06.600 I would not trust the experts

00:13:08.880 over Vivek.

00:13:10.980 And again,

00:13:11.860 it's not only because

00:13:12.960 I am endorsing him

00:13:14.080 for president,

00:13:15.100 although that helps.

00:13:17.660 Smart people

00:13:18.620 can beat the experts

00:13:21.120 regularly.

00:13:23.040 What happened

00:13:23.700 during the pandemic?

00:13:25.240 Do you remember

00:13:25.700 all the rogues,

00:13:26.880 the people who had,

00:13:27.840 you know,

00:13:28.060 the opposite opinions?

00:13:29.600 Many of them

00:13:30.300 turned out to be right,

00:13:31.280 didn't they?

00:13:32.260 Many of them.

00:13:33.920 And I turned out

00:13:34.940 to be right

00:13:35.560 probably more

00:13:36.700 than anybody.

00:13:38.280 If you tested my IQ,

00:13:40.020 where would it be?

00:13:40.580 Top 2%.

00:13:41.240 It's a very consistent thing.

00:13:44.540 So just keep that in mind

00:13:46.080 when you're trusting

00:13:46.820 your experts.

00:13:48.760 I've talked about

00:13:49.500 the incompetence problem

00:13:50.700 in this country.

00:13:52.340 And even the trolls

00:13:53.560 are getting worse.

00:13:55.120 Oh, my God,

00:13:55.800 the trolls.

00:13:57.260 I remember when

00:13:58.180 the trolls

00:13:58.680 would be really good.

00:14:00.480 They'd like get in there

00:14:01.360 and they'd really

00:14:01.680 get under your skin

00:14:02.560 and they'd say something

00:14:04.240 that would really bug you.

00:14:05.900 Well, here's what

00:14:06.740 happened to me

00:14:07.220 this morning.

00:14:08.900 I saw a comment

00:14:10.020 to one of my

00:14:10.720 excellent posts

00:14:11.560 on X

00:14:12.180 and somebody named

00:14:13.640 Colorado Dispensary

00:14:14.800 Loiterer.

00:14:16.240 It's a pretty funny name.

00:14:18.280 Colorado Dispensary

00:14:19.520 Loiterer.

00:14:21.820 Said about me,

00:14:23.340 Smarty Pants Scott Adams

00:14:24.620 thinks he's a mystical shaman,

00:14:26.440 American patriot.

00:14:27.860 He soiled himself.

00:14:29.180 Period.

00:14:30.920 Now, that wasn't

00:14:31.680 the bad troll comment

00:14:33.300 that I was speaking about.

00:14:35.280 This was just,

00:14:36.300 you know, low end.

00:14:38.240 Sort of the low end

00:14:39.200 of the troll capability.

00:14:41.780 But I didn't think

00:14:43.360 it could get lower

00:14:44.240 until somebody commented

00:14:46.580 on the comment.

00:14:48.000 So I'll read it again

00:14:49.720 so you know what

00:14:50.420 the other troll

00:14:51.380 was commenting on.

00:14:52.880 Smarty Pants Scott Adams

00:14:54.080 thinks he's a mystical

00:14:55.000 shaman,

00:14:55.500 American patriot.

00:14:56.680 He soiled himself.

00:14:58.400 Period.

00:14:59.740 And then the other comment

00:15:00.700 was this.

00:15:03.580 With little fingers

00:15:04.400 pointing up to the comment

00:15:05.460 because it was so good.

00:15:07.840 This.

00:15:10.080 Now,

00:15:10.820 I have a suggestion

00:15:13.060 for you.

00:15:15.020 You should be sparing

00:15:16.920 in your use

00:15:17.860 of this.

00:15:19.540 It's kind of embarrassing

00:15:23.240 if you use it on

00:15:24.760 something like

00:15:26.880 this.

00:15:29.160 Even the trolls

00:15:30.120 have lost their game.

00:15:33.600 Well, I want better trolls.

00:15:35.260 Can somebody talk

00:15:35.920 to Elon Musk about that?

00:15:37.860 Can we have a special badge

00:15:39.240 for the high-level trolls?

00:15:40.880 And then when you see them,

00:15:42.640 you'd be like,

00:15:43.140 oh,

00:15:43.700 there's a good troll.

00:15:45.040 Let's see what this one's up to.

00:15:46.080 Could be entertaining.

00:15:49.640 Well,

00:15:50.260 Hollywood has created,

00:15:51.900 and I just love this,

00:15:54.140 a blacklist

00:15:55.380 for people in the industry

00:15:57.140 who are too pro-Palestine.

00:16:01.720 That's right.

00:16:02.880 You can no longer

00:16:04.040 get a job in Hollywood

00:16:05.200 if you spoke out

00:16:07.080 in favor of

00:16:07.740 the Palestinian

00:16:08.520 suffering.

00:16:10.620 How good do you think

00:16:18.820 the next movie

00:16:19.520 is there going to be?

00:16:21.780 Imagine,

00:16:22.720 so I tweeted this,

00:16:23.560 imagine being a

00:16:24.480 Hollywood director,

00:16:26.720 and let's say

00:16:27.220 it's a few months

00:16:27.900 from now.

00:16:28.820 You're trying to

00:16:29.400 pull together a team.

00:16:31.540 Now remember,

00:16:32.180 when you make a movie,

00:16:33.780 you're pulling together

00:16:34.980 a team for the first time

00:16:36.320 each time.

00:16:37.060 It's a brand new team

00:16:38.120 for each movie.

00:16:38.760 You know how hard

00:16:41.300 it was to pull together

00:16:42.180 a team when you

00:16:43.000 had to do diversity?

00:16:44.940 You've got to have

00:16:45.440 a diverse cast,

00:16:46.860 you've got a diverse crew.

00:16:48.980 Imagine the burden

00:16:49.980 that puts on

00:16:51.140 the creative process,

00:16:52.900 that you've got to have

00:16:53.500 the right mix of people,

00:16:54.900 so you can't really hire

00:16:56.020 the perfect person

00:16:57.300 for the part.

00:16:58.820 You might need to get

00:16:59.680 the person who's,

00:17:00.600 you know,

00:17:00.980 okay for it,

00:17:01.880 but satisfies

00:17:03.100 your diverse needs.

00:17:06.660 Now add to that

00:17:07.880 that you somehow

00:17:09.060 have to filter out

00:17:10.680 all these blacklisted

00:17:11.680 people who had the

00:17:12.580 quote,

00:17:13.360 wrong opinion

00:17:14.100 about Gaza.

00:17:16.640 Try to make a movie

00:17:17.800 under those conditions.

00:17:20.120 You can't have any

00:17:21.040 bad thing,

00:17:22.880 and you've got to have

00:17:23.660 full diversity.

00:17:26.660 Yep.

00:17:28.120 Now the good news is

00:17:29.340 it's still going to be

00:17:30.160 easy to write the scripts.

00:17:31.880 It'll be hard to pull

00:17:33.380 a cast together

00:17:34.180 that doesn't want

00:17:34.760 to kill each other,

00:17:35.560 but at least the scripts

00:17:37.320 are still easy.

00:17:41.040 Tie somebody to a chair,

00:17:42.920 that's always a good one.

00:17:45.880 How about a,

00:17:46.980 I'm just brainstorming here,

00:17:48.940 but what about

00:17:49.460 a car chase scene?

00:17:51.200 Car chase?

00:17:52.740 What if,

00:17:53.700 I'm just,

00:17:54.460 I'm going to go crazy here,

00:17:56.120 what if it's a car chase,

00:17:58.220 but helicopters are involved?

00:18:01.280 Helicopters.

00:18:01.880 No,

00:18:02.460 better,

00:18:03.580 gigantic vehicles

00:18:05.120 such as garbage trucks?

00:18:07.600 Yes,

00:18:08.440 garbage trucks

00:18:09.120 or gigantic bulldozers

00:18:10.520 that can plow

00:18:11.720 through other cars.

00:18:13.680 How about that?

00:18:14.840 Has anybody done that yet?

00:18:16.760 Anybody?

00:18:17.460 No?

00:18:18.240 Anyway,

00:18:18.720 so at least the writing

00:18:20.120 and the script

00:18:21.120 will be simple.

00:18:21.880 question for you.

00:18:26.780 Did we ever have free speech?

00:18:29.680 Because free speech

00:18:30.700 is good and dead

00:18:32.020 at the moment.

00:18:33.200 And what I mean by that

00:18:34.220 is you only now

00:18:35.260 have the free speech,

00:18:37.040 and you can see

00:18:37.640 from the example

00:18:38.300 of the Hollywood blacklist,

00:18:40.340 that's a good example,

00:18:41.160 but you can add to that

00:18:43.440 Owen Schroyer

00:18:44.360 going to prison

00:18:45.480 for talking,

00:18:47.540 for talking.

00:18:49.680 He's going to prison

00:18:50.620 for fucking talking.

00:18:52.340 All the J6ers

00:18:55.960 who are overcharged.

00:18:57.860 You've got Trump

00:18:58.720 who had a gag order.

00:19:00.040 Are you kidding me?

00:19:01.800 He's running for president

00:19:02.780 with a gag order?

00:19:04.980 That's really happening.

00:19:06.540 I think that might be

00:19:07.560 suspended at the moment.

00:19:09.080 And then you can look

00:19:09.820 at all the people

00:19:10.280 who got cancelled

00:19:10.900 for having opinions

00:19:12.340 that people completely

00:19:13.500 agree with at the moment.

00:19:15.280 Such as me.

00:19:16.080 By the way,

00:19:18.860 I might be the only

00:19:19.920 cancelled person

00:19:21.580 who has nobody

00:19:23.260 who disagrees

00:19:23.980 with my opinion.

00:19:25.520 Or at least on the part

00:19:26.340 that got me cancelled.

00:19:27.640 Nobody.

00:19:28.680 When they hear it

00:19:29.300 in context,

00:19:30.000 everybody goes,

00:19:31.160 oh, okay.

00:19:33.880 So we don't have

00:19:34.700 any free opinions.

00:19:35.720 The only freedom you have

00:19:37.060 is to be uninteresting

00:19:38.420 and no challenge

00:19:40.720 to the narrative.

00:19:42.580 So if you're a crazy person,

00:19:43.940 you could probably

00:19:44.360 get away with anything

00:19:45.080 because people go,

00:19:45.760 ah, we're not paying

00:19:46.840 attention to you anyway.

00:19:48.740 And if you say things

00:19:50.020 that maybe the narrative

00:19:52.020 doesn't like,

00:19:53.960 but you're not really

00:19:56.100 influential,

00:19:57.640 that's probably okay too.

00:19:59.080 You can't do anything

00:20:00.120 that is speech

00:20:00.900 that would change

00:20:01.760 the status quo

00:20:03.600 because the people

00:20:04.460 who own the status quo

00:20:05.900 are going to kill you for it

00:20:07.080 because they like

00:20:07.720 the status quo.

00:20:09.260 So I was challenged

00:20:10.940 on this.

00:20:12.580 David Boxenhorn

00:20:13.540 was saying,

00:20:14.880 you know,

00:20:15.020 has it ever been different?

00:20:17.000 It's always been true

00:20:18.100 that if you said

00:20:18.760 something abhorrent,

00:20:20.200 you would get punished.

00:20:21.740 Would you agree?

00:20:22.580 It's always been true.

00:20:24.380 Anybody who said

00:20:25.240 something that was

00:20:25.840 that bad

00:20:26.580 was going to pay for it.

00:20:29.220 Well, that's not my memory.

00:20:31.280 I don't have that memory

00:20:32.400 at all.

00:20:33.280 My memory of my

00:20:34.520 younger years

00:20:35.440 is that

00:20:36.560 if somebody said

00:20:37.600 something horrendous,

00:20:38.640 they didn't say it

00:20:40.360 on social media

00:20:41.140 because it didn't exist.

00:20:44.120 And then you'd say

00:20:44.980 to yourself,

00:20:45.440 my God,

00:20:45.920 that's a horrendous opinion.

00:20:48.920 And then you would

00:20:49.800 pick teams

00:20:50.320 for the softball game

00:20:51.320 and you'd go play softball

00:20:52.340 with the people

00:20:53.420 who had the horrendous

00:20:54.180 opinions

00:20:54.580 because their opinions

00:20:55.780 never left their head.

00:20:57.260 Well,

00:20:57.660 they left their head

00:20:58.280 because they spoke it,

00:20:59.580 but nobody was

00:21:00.760 influenced by it.

00:21:02.240 It didn't change

00:21:02.880 my opinion

00:21:03.500 that somebody

00:21:04.120 had a terrible opinion

00:21:05.060 about something

00:21:05.700 that was abhorrent.

00:21:06.980 In today's world,

00:21:08.160 that person

00:21:08.540 would be cancelled

00:21:09.240 because they would say it

00:21:11.080 or it would end up

00:21:11.800 on social media.

00:21:13.060 And then all the

00:21:14.160 prickly people

00:21:15.600 would say it

00:21:16.080 and go,

00:21:16.380 oh,

00:21:17.020 oh,

00:21:17.420 I got another cancellation.

00:21:18.860 I got quite a boner

00:21:19.900 about this.

00:21:20.800 Oh,

00:21:21.200 I can't wait to cancel

00:21:22.000 this enemy of mine.

00:21:23.620 And then they cancel.

00:21:25.800 So the point is,

00:21:27.840 social media

00:21:28.900 made everybody

00:21:30.540 cancel a bowl

00:21:31.620 in a way

00:21:32.860 that just wasn't true

00:21:33.680 when I was a kid.

00:21:34.800 You could have

00:21:35.320 the worst fucking

00:21:36.260 opinions when I was a kid

00:21:37.520 and we'd just hang out

00:21:39.020 because it just seemed

00:21:40.240 like free speech.

00:21:43.280 I took free speech

00:21:44.520 very,

00:21:45.180 very seriously

00:21:45.960 as a child

00:21:46.660 because I was

00:21:47.400 trained to be that way.

00:21:49.780 So if somebody

00:21:50.380 said something

00:21:50.920 that was just

00:21:51.500 absolutely horrible

00:21:53.840 according to

00:21:55.140 my own standards,

00:21:56.440 it didn't bother me

00:21:57.740 at all.

00:21:58.860 Not even a little bit.

00:22:00.860 I literally

00:22:01.800 just shrugged

00:22:02.660 and said,

00:22:03.700 well,

00:22:03.940 free speech.

00:22:05.320 Isn't that

00:22:06.520 how everybody

00:22:07.120 was in the 60s?

00:22:08.540 In the 60s,

00:22:10.160 you would even

00:22:11.160 hang out with

00:22:11.740 somebody you

00:22:12.240 violently disagreed

00:22:13.880 with

00:22:14.180 because that's

00:22:16.100 how things were.

00:22:17.960 You wouldn't

00:22:18.520 not hang out

00:22:19.860 with somebody

00:22:20.240 because you

00:22:20.540 hated their opinion.

00:22:21.520 That wouldn't

00:22:21.800 even be sensible.

00:22:24.380 I'm not even sure

00:22:25.220 I wouldn't even

00:22:25.660 be able to wrap

00:22:26.100 my head around that

00:22:26.900 because people

00:22:28.280 have such

00:22:28.740 different opinions

00:22:29.420 you would have

00:22:29.940 no friends.

00:22:30.780 It just didn't

00:22:31.180 make sense

00:22:31.700 to not

00:22:33.800 hang around

00:22:34.260 with people

00:22:34.660 because of

00:22:35.100 their opinions.

00:22:38.160 Now,

00:22:38.640 of course,

00:22:38.940 it might be

00:22:39.300 true that

00:22:39.680 people had

00:22:40.100 closer opinions,

00:22:41.820 similar opinions

00:22:42.640 where I grew up

00:22:43.480 so it wasn't

00:22:43.960 a big issue,

00:22:45.040 but it was

00:22:46.980 very different.

00:22:48.100 So I would

00:22:48.480 add that the

00:22:49.100 social media

00:22:49.860 reach of it

00:22:50.820 makes bad

00:22:52.000 opinions travel

00:22:52.980 farther,

00:22:53.660 but it also

00:22:54.700 makes the

00:22:55.260 feedback instant

00:22:56.460 and vicious.

00:22:58.120 So at the

00:22:58.620 moment,

00:22:58.940 we don't

00:23:00.320 have anything

00:23:00.740 like free

00:23:01.240 speech.

00:23:01.840 You only

00:23:02.280 have the

00:23:02.620 freedom to

00:23:03.060 say things

00:23:03.500 uninteresting

00:23:04.300 or ineffective.

00:23:06.460 If it

00:23:06.860 changes the

00:23:07.440 narrative,

00:23:08.060 somebody's

00:23:09.420 going to

00:23:09.600 get you.

00:23:10.320 You're

00:23:10.780 going to

00:23:10.860 be blacklisted

00:23:11.500 in Hollywood.

00:23:13.480 Here's a

00:23:14.060 question.

00:23:14.480 Will there

00:23:14.780 be an

00:23:15.100 election in

00:23:15.620 2024,

00:23:16.540 people are

00:23:16.940 asking.

00:23:18.280 And if

00:23:19.860 you were to

00:23:20.260 use the

00:23:20.760 Tucker Carlson

00:23:21.640 observation,

00:23:22.600 which I don't

00:23:22.980 think he

00:23:23.280 invented,

00:23:24.820 was it

00:23:25.280 Krakauer

00:23:26.640 or somebody

00:23:27.140 who came up

00:23:27.660 with it,

00:23:27.960 the idea

00:23:28.360 that whatever

00:23:28.980 the Democrats

00:23:29.560 are blaming

00:23:30.900 you of,

00:23:31.660 whatever they

00:23:32.140 accuse you

00:23:32.720 of is what

00:23:33.180 they're doing?

00:23:36.000 Was that

00:23:36.660 Krakauer?

00:23:38.720 Oh,

00:23:39.120 Rush Limbaugh

00:23:39.680 said it?

00:23:41.480 Oh,

00:23:41.720 Krauhammer.

00:23:42.640 Krauhammer.

00:23:43.460 Charles Krauhammer.

00:23:44.900 I think it was

00:23:45.540 Charles Krauhammer.

00:23:46.860 I've heard

00:23:47.180 it attributed

00:23:49.500 to him the

00:23:50.000 most.

00:23:50.780 But anyway,

00:23:51.140 the idea is

00:23:51.980 that you

00:23:52.280 could actually

00:23:52.680 predict the

00:23:53.260 future by

00:23:54.760 looking at

00:23:55.260 what Democrats

00:23:56.000 are accusing

00:23:56.800 Republicans of

00:23:57.940 and then

00:23:58.720 just move

00:23:59.160 it forward

00:23:59.620 and say,

00:24:00.100 oh,

00:24:00.400 they're either

00:24:00.720 already doing

00:24:01.440 it or they

00:24:02.300 plan to do

00:24:02.800 it soon.

00:24:03.980 So let's

00:24:04.700 test the

00:24:05.180 theory.

00:24:06.380 Let's test

00:24:06.920 it.

00:24:07.060 We have a

00:24:07.420 perfect test

00:24:07.980 here.

00:24:09.020 The test

00:24:09.540 is,

00:24:10.520 since the

00:24:13.740 Democrats

00:24:14.160 made a

00:24:14.620 gigantic deal

00:24:15.500 about January

00:24:16.240 6th being an

00:24:17.200 insurrection,

00:24:17.740 what do you

00:24:20.260 expect them

00:24:20.840 to do if

00:24:22.540 this coming

00:24:23.700 summer,

00:24:24.640 it'll be the

00:24:25.200 summer before

00:24:25.800 the election.

00:24:27.080 If this

00:24:27.380 coming summer,

00:24:29.040 and in all

00:24:29.540 likelihood this

00:24:30.260 will be the

00:24:30.680 case, if you

00:24:31.560 just straight

00:24:32.060 line it,

00:24:33.480 Trump will

00:24:34.040 have an

00:24:34.580 insurmountable

00:24:35.420 lead in the

00:24:36.040 polls over

00:24:37.420 Biden.

00:24:39.240 Insurmountable.

00:24:40.120 In other

00:24:40.440 words, there's

00:24:40.960 no way that

00:24:41.500 they could

00:24:42.040 cheat to

00:24:43.680 change it.

00:24:44.660 There's just

00:24:45.040 nothing they

00:24:45.500 could do.

00:24:46.980 Under those

00:24:47.660 conditions,

00:24:48.460 would you

00:24:48.840 expect Democrats

00:24:50.180 to allow the

00:24:51.160 election to go

00:24:51.880 forward?

00:24:52.280 if they

00:24:53.280 knew for

00:24:53.920 sure that

00:24:55.360 Biden would

00:24:55.840 lose?

00:24:59.260 Well, the

00:24:59.820 Charles

00:25:01.000 Krauhammer,

00:25:02.760 Rush Limbaugh,

00:25:04.360 Tucker Carlson

00:25:05.600 theory that

00:25:07.220 what they're

00:25:07.680 accusing you

00:25:08.360 of, and we

00:25:09.460 saw that with

00:25:09.960 January 6th,

00:25:10.940 is what they're

00:25:11.860 doing or going

00:25:12.960 to do.

00:25:14.460 So it is

00:25:15.320 signaling very

00:25:16.120 strongly that

00:25:18.200 if the polls

00:25:19.060 are really far

00:25:20.060 apart and

00:25:21.400 there's nothing

00:25:22.020 they can do

00:25:22.520 to close it

00:25:23.100 before election

00:25:23.700 day, that

00:25:24.800 they would

00:25:25.160 find an

00:25:26.120 excuse to

00:25:27.420 disband the

00:25:28.300 elections and

00:25:29.440 take control.

00:25:32.120 Now, this is

00:25:33.400 not my

00:25:33.860 prediction.

00:25:35.160 Not my

00:25:35.680 prediction.

00:25:36.680 This is what

00:25:37.560 this prediction

00:25:38.760 system or

00:25:40.840 technique predicts.

00:25:42.620 It's a very,

00:25:43.940 very strong

00:25:44.460 signal that

00:25:45.860 Democrats plan

00:25:47.060 to do

00:25:47.560 something sketchy

00:25:48.840 to take

00:25:50.240 control of the

00:25:50.820 country and

00:25:51.440 disband

00:25:52.020 elections,

00:25:53.160 mostly to

00:25:53.740 keep Trump

00:25:54.180 out of office

00:25:54.800 because Trump

00:25:55.620 is an

00:25:55.980 existential threat

00:25:56.940 to a lot

00:25:57.420 of them.

00:26:00.020 So, but

00:26:02.240 more generally,

00:26:03.180 even if you

00:26:03.600 forget the

00:26:05.220 concept of

00:26:06.540 they always

00:26:07.000 do what

00:26:08.040 they're accusing

00:26:08.500 you of,

00:26:09.040 let's say you

00:26:09.480 think that's

00:26:09.960 nonsense.

00:26:12.060 You don't even

00:26:12.820 need it.

00:26:13.880 It's 2024,

00:26:15.160 it's the

00:26:15.580 summer of 2024,

00:26:16.500 2024, and

00:26:17.720 Trump has an

00:26:18.520 insurmountable

00:26:19.500 lead, like

00:26:20.340 just a crazy

00:26:21.160 lead like

00:26:21.740 you've never

00:26:22.120 even seen

00:26:22.520 in politics.

00:26:24.800 There isn't

00:26:25.620 any chance

00:26:26.260 they're going

00:26:26.560 to let him

00:26:27.040 just go

00:26:27.580 forward and

00:26:28.100 win.

00:26:29.320 I don't

00:26:29.940 think.

00:26:31.240 Even if you

00:26:32.000 take away

00:26:32.500 the whole

00:26:33.760 Tucker Carlson

00:26:34.600 part of it,

00:26:35.500 you know,

00:26:35.720 that theory,

00:26:36.960 they can't

00:26:38.520 let it happen.

00:26:39.020 So, I

00:26:41.280 think that

00:26:41.680 they would

00:26:41.940 have to

00:26:42.220 use an

00:26:42.840 external war

00:26:43.880 which would

00:26:46.520 almost guarantee

00:26:47.360 that there

00:26:47.720 would be

00:26:47.920 violence on

00:26:48.520 the homeland.

00:26:49.520 The war is

00:26:50.020 coming to

00:26:50.380 you, you

00:26:50.700 know.

00:26:51.200 You just

00:26:51.960 entered a

00:26:52.440 war.

00:26:53.300 Because there's

00:26:53.800 not much

00:26:54.260 chance that

00:26:55.920 it's not

00:26:56.300 going to

00:26:57.180 become a

00:26:57.820 hot war

00:26:58.340 with Iran.

00:26:59.640 And there's

00:27:00.020 not much

00:27:00.480 chance that

00:27:01.600 Iran doesn't

00:27:02.240 already have

00:27:02.940 some kind

00:27:04.920 of saboteurs

00:27:05.760 in the

00:27:06.080 United States.

00:27:07.480 I would

00:27:08.120 expect,

00:27:09.020 that our

00:27:09.920 lights are

00:27:10.280 going to

00:27:10.480 go out.

00:27:11.900 So, get

00:27:12.440 ready for

00:27:12.780 that.

00:27:14.080 I don't

00:27:14.700 see any

00:27:15.460 situation where

00:27:16.540 Iran just

00:27:17.260 rolls over

00:27:17.880 and takes

00:27:18.320 it.

00:27:19.260 That doesn't

00:27:19.760 seem likely.

00:27:20.860 But I

00:27:21.260 think that

00:27:21.840 they would

00:27:22.380 attack at

00:27:22.880 least our

00:27:23.300 grid.

00:27:25.260 So, I

00:27:25.740 would expect,

00:27:26.480 yeah, I

00:27:26.880 would expect,

00:27:27.760 I don't want

00:27:28.220 to give them

00:27:28.560 any ideas.

00:27:30.160 But the

00:27:30.600 things that

00:27:31.140 the Iranians

00:27:31.800 could do,

00:27:32.640 just by being

00:27:33.320 capable,

00:27:34.140 because they're

00:27:34.480 good at

00:27:34.840 stuff,

00:27:35.900 they have a

00:27:36.380 very professional

00:27:37.160 military,

00:27:39.020 intelligence

00:27:39.720 situation.

00:27:41.820 What they

00:27:42.480 could do to

00:27:42.880 the United

00:27:43.260 States would

00:27:43.800 be completely

00:27:44.420 crippling,

00:27:45.700 if they put

00:27:46.240 any effort

00:27:46.700 into it at

00:27:47.240 all.

00:27:48.180 And it

00:27:48.740 looks like

00:27:49.080 they would.

00:27:50.600 So,

00:27:51.880 there will

00:27:53.520 be a

00:27:53.880 situation which

00:27:54.680 would be

00:27:55.040 conducive to

00:27:55.680 canceling

00:27:56.120 elections.

00:27:57.320 And we

00:27:57.680 saw that

00:27:58.260 Zelensky did

00:27:59.320 a trial run

00:28:00.040 of that in

00:28:00.620 Ukraine,

00:28:01.100 and it

00:28:01.320 worked.

00:28:02.140 All he

00:28:02.500 had to do

00:28:02.880 was say,

00:28:03.300 well, we're

00:28:03.600 at war,

00:28:04.160 so no

00:28:04.800 election.

00:28:05.140 And the

00:28:06.260 people said,

00:28:06.820 oh, I

00:28:08.160 don't love

00:28:08.660 that, but

00:28:10.180 that whole

00:28:10.580 thing about

00:28:11.040 being at

00:28:11.440 war is a

00:28:12.080 pretty good

00:28:12.740 reason.

00:28:13.940 I hope it's

00:28:14.860 temporary.

00:28:16.400 I can't

00:28:17.640 fight two

00:28:18.080 wars at the

00:28:18.600 same time.

00:28:19.180 I'm fighting

00:28:19.600 the Russians.

00:28:20.180 I can't

00:28:20.500 fight Zelensky.

00:28:21.960 Let's just

00:28:22.600 let it go.

00:28:25.100 It's the

00:28:25.780 perfect situation

00:28:26.680 for the

00:28:27.000 Democrats to

00:28:27.820 just take

00:28:28.900 control and

00:28:29.460 have it for

00:28:29.900 the rest of

00:28:30.340 time.

00:28:31.740 Now, if they

00:28:32.180 did take

00:28:32.560 control, then

00:28:33.280 they would

00:28:33.640 presumably move

00:28:34.700 quickly to

00:28:36.000 make sure

00:28:36.420 there were

00:28:36.780 no credible

00:28:37.720 institutions

00:28:38.420 that disagreed

00:28:39.340 with them

00:28:39.660 that were

00:28:40.160 still in

00:28:40.600 power.

00:28:41.900 So they'd

00:28:42.280 make sure

00:28:42.600 they owned

00:28:43.000 all the

00:28:43.320 fact-checkers

00:28:44.180 and the

00:28:44.460 think-tanks

00:28:45.080 and the

00:28:45.560 media.

00:28:46.540 Of course,

00:28:46.900 they'd have

00:28:47.160 to control

00:28:47.580 the media

00:28:47.980 entirely,

00:28:48.720 which might

00:28:49.460 involve

00:28:50.000 taking Fox

00:28:51.880 News out of

00:28:52.520 the mix,

00:28:53.760 taking Breitbart

00:28:54.520 out of the

00:28:54.920 mix,

00:28:55.920 hiding the

00:28:56.600 other sources

00:28:57.140 so that you

00:28:57.660 couldn't even

00:28:58.040 Google and

00:28:59.060 see a right

00:28:59.660 leaning opinion.

00:29:01.420 So that's

00:29:02.060 what I would

00:29:02.500 expect to

00:29:03.740 happen next

00:29:04.620 summer.

00:29:06.340 And the

00:29:06.740 reason is

00:29:07.220 they've

00:29:07.800 convinced the

00:29:08.880 country and

00:29:09.420 themselves,

00:29:09.960 half the

00:29:10.280 country anyway,

00:29:11.340 that Trump

00:29:13.360 is Hitler

00:29:13.800 and that

00:29:15.780 he's going

00:29:16.280 to make,

00:29:17.100 even if we're

00:29:17.720 in a war,

00:29:19.040 we could be

00:29:19.640 in the middle

00:29:20.080 of World

00:29:20.520 War III and

00:29:22.320 the Democrats

00:29:22.960 would still

00:29:23.500 say, but

00:29:24.460 you know,

00:29:24.760 Trump would

00:29:25.200 make this

00:29:25.600 worse.

00:29:26.760 That would

00:29:27.100 still be

00:29:27.420 their argument,

00:29:28.860 as absurd

00:29:29.660 as that

00:29:30.060 sounds today.

00:29:30.880 All right,

00:29:33.300 so look for

00:29:34.180 that.

00:29:38.620 Now let's

00:29:40.160 say there

00:29:40.420 is an

00:29:40.740 election,

00:29:41.640 and let's

00:29:41.940 say Trump

00:29:42.420 wins.

00:29:44.240 I saw

00:29:44.720 somebody

00:29:45.020 suggest it

00:29:45.580 would be a

00:29:45.920 civil war if

00:29:46.640 he wins.

00:29:47.600 What do you

00:29:47.980 think?

00:29:48.600 Will there

00:29:49.060 be a civil

00:29:49.920 war if

00:29:51.420 Trump were

00:29:51.860 to win

00:29:52.220 re-election?

00:29:52.740 Oh, you're

00:29:55.100 saying no.

00:29:58.380 Yeah, I

00:29:59.120 don't think

00:29:59.500 it'll be a

00:30:00.180 proper civil

00:30:00.940 war, because

00:30:02.540 for a proper

00:30:03.200 civil war, you

00:30:04.120 need more of

00:30:05.140 a geographic

00:30:05.920 situation.

00:30:08.880 You know,

00:30:09.520 if the

00:30:10.500 South has a

00:30:11.360 completely

00:30:11.680 different system

00:30:12.500 than the

00:30:12.940 North, that

00:30:14.240 could be a

00:30:14.640 civil war.

00:30:15.960 But if you

00:30:16.900 have people

00:30:18.100 within every

00:30:18.840 city who

00:30:19.460 are on both

00:30:19.840 sides, and

00:30:21.180 every side

00:30:21.880 that there

00:30:22.180 could be,

00:30:22.740 it's hard

00:30:23.440 to have a

00:30:23.900 civil war

00:30:24.580 when your

00:30:26.600 neighbor, your

00:30:27.800 wife, we're

00:30:31.200 too intermixed.

00:30:33.260 As different

00:30:34.140 as we are

00:30:34.680 politically, we

00:30:36.520 live our lives

00:30:37.480 connected.

00:30:39.280 So I don't

00:30:39.700 think we have

00:30:40.400 the right

00:30:40.920 demographic,

00:30:42.660 geographic,

00:30:44.060 just a

00:30:45.220 physical

00:30:45.640 situation that

00:30:47.220 leads to

00:30:47.780 civil war.

00:30:48.380 And by the

00:30:48.700 way, what

00:30:49.000 would be the

00:30:49.420 purpose of

00:30:49.920 it?

00:30:50.860 What would

00:30:51.200 be the

00:30:51.420 purpose?

00:30:51.660 So I

00:30:55.400 don't think

00:30:55.740 there will

00:30:55.900 be a

00:30:56.200 civil war in

00:30:56.720 that sense.

00:30:57.500 But I

00:30:57.800 think if

00:30:58.120 you're not

00:30:58.460 armed, it's

00:31:00.320 a mistake.

00:31:01.800 I would

00:31:02.260 say we're

00:31:02.940 reaching a

00:31:03.760 point in

00:31:04.180 our

00:31:04.340 civilization

00:31:04.940 where each

00:31:06.560 household needs

00:31:07.220 to have some

00:31:07.560 pretty heavy

00:31:08.140 firepower.

00:31:10.780 Because otherwise

00:31:11.320 you're going to

00:31:11.760 turn into

00:31:12.140 Israel.

00:31:13.320 And by the

00:31:14.040 way, there's

00:31:14.400 no chance

00:31:14.920 that it won't

00:31:15.340 happen.

00:31:15.700 what we

00:31:17.540 saw in

00:31:17.860 Israel, unless

00:31:19.860 you have

00:31:22.020 some terrible

00:31:22.560 solution such

00:31:23.480 as in this

00:31:23.980 book, which

00:31:25.240 I won't

00:31:25.520 describe, as

00:31:29.280 long as there

00:31:29.880 are people who

00:31:30.520 have the same

00:31:31.080 philosophy as

00:31:31.760 Hamas, and

00:31:32.580 apparently they're

00:31:33.160 making new

00:31:33.660 ones every

00:31:34.040 day, it's

00:31:36.100 guaranteed to

00:31:36.760 happen here.

00:31:37.640 There's nothing

00:31:38.300 that would stop

00:31:38.820 it.

00:31:39.080 There's not

00:31:39.400 even a little

00:31:39.920 bit of friction.

00:31:41.180 You just look

00:31:42.440 at your watch

00:31:43.040 and you wait.

00:31:43.820 okay, I

00:31:45.460 guess it

00:31:45.700 happened here.

00:31:46.920 We've got an

00:31:47.700 open border, for

00:31:49.360 all practical

00:31:49.940 purposes, and

00:31:51.920 they have the

00:31:52.500 incentive and

00:31:53.160 the means to

00:31:53.760 do it, and

00:31:54.860 it's in their

00:31:55.300 long-range plan,

00:31:56.500 and they've

00:31:56.780 been very

00:31:57.140 consistent about

00:31:58.120 executing exactly

00:32:01.820 what they said

00:32:02.460 they would do,

00:32:03.340 which is try to

00:32:04.080 kill everybody

00:32:04.800 of one kind

00:32:05.640 of person.

00:32:07.300 So, of

00:32:08.160 course it's

00:32:08.600 coming here.

00:32:10.080 And you

00:32:10.740 don't want to

00:32:11.160 be unarmed

00:32:11.800 when they knock

00:32:12.840 on your door,

00:32:13.380 because you're

00:32:14.120 going to have

00:32:14.320 to shoot it

00:32:14.740 out, probably.

00:32:16.840 So, speaking

00:32:18.960 of that, did

00:32:20.200 you see Joel

00:32:21.240 Pollock had a

00:32:22.260 tweet today that

00:32:23.380 I reposted that

00:32:25.420 showed there was

00:32:26.800 a CEO of some

00:32:28.320 Israeli company

00:32:29.640 who, as soon

00:32:31.320 as the trouble

00:32:31.780 started, he was

00:32:33.080 ex-military,

00:32:34.560 grabbed his

00:32:35.300 rifle, wrote a

00:32:37.600 goodbye letter to

00:32:38.520 his children, and

00:32:40.480 drove as fast as

00:32:41.520 he could toward

00:32:42.660 the fighting.

00:32:44.840 He helped

00:32:45.700 liberate one

00:32:46.720 town, lived,

00:32:50.940 went to

00:32:51.420 liberate the

00:32:51.940 second town,

00:32:53.500 and lived.

00:32:55.400 And as

00:32:56.340 Joel points

00:32:57.300 out, how

00:32:58.280 would you like

00:32:58.740 your CEO to

00:32:59.700 be that guy?

00:33:01.500 Oh, my God.

00:33:03.420 Oh, my God.

00:33:04.480 Now, assuming

00:33:05.000 he survives what

00:33:06.600 comes next, which

00:33:07.840 we hope for

00:33:08.520 everybody, he's

00:33:11.120 going to have a

00:33:11.520 pretty loyal

00:33:12.060 staff.

00:33:13.980 They're going

00:33:14.600 to want to,

00:33:15.340 literally, they're

00:33:16.480 going to want to

00:33:17.100 go to war with

00:33:17.760 them, right?

00:33:18.720 That's what the

00:33:19.400 CEOs always say.

00:33:21.320 They want to make

00:33:22.360 you want to go to

00:33:22.980 war with them,

00:33:23.700 because the

00:33:24.420 marketplace is

00:33:25.100 war, but he

00:33:26.300 actually went to

00:33:26.980 war for them.

00:33:28.240 Like, actually,

00:33:29.360 literally, physically,

00:33:31.280 went to war for

00:33:34.340 his staff in the

00:33:35.500 country.

00:33:36.780 Can't beat that.

00:33:37.760 He's also

00:33:38.980 amazingly

00:33:39.620 photogenic, so I

00:33:41.140 think you'll see

00:33:41.600 more of him.

00:33:42.600 He's, like,

00:33:43.120 really photogenic.

00:33:44.220 One of the best

00:33:44.720 looking guys you'll

00:33:45.400 ever see in your

00:33:45.860 life.

00:33:48.660 His first name,

00:33:49.700 however, does

00:33:50.280 not, it's not

00:33:52.520 perfect for TV.

00:33:55.100 I don't know if

00:33:55.620 you noticed his

00:33:56.180 first name, the

00:33:57.420 hero.

00:33:59.060 I'm not making

00:33:59.880 fun of him.

00:34:00.940 This is his

00:34:01.520 actual first name,

00:34:03.920 Nimrod.

00:34:04.420 Nimrod, which

00:34:06.900 maybe is a

00:34:08.900 popular name in

00:34:09.680 Israel.

00:34:11.820 Now, I don't

00:34:14.000 want to lose any

00:34:14.600 respect for him,

00:34:15.440 so a full, you

00:34:16.360 know, full

00:34:16.800 portion of

00:34:18.920 respect, but it

00:34:20.080 is an interesting

00:34:20.720 name for a hero.

00:34:24.140 Anyway, it

00:34:27.300 looks like there

00:34:27.920 may be there's

00:34:29.480 a movement to

00:34:30.140 make Mike

00:34:30.680 Johnson the

00:34:31.500 Speaker of the

00:34:32.100 House.

00:34:34.420 Mike Johnson.

00:34:36.200 Could there

00:34:36.740 be, I'll

00:34:38.880 now do

00:34:39.900 Chandler Bing,

00:34:41.740 could there

00:34:42.460 be a more

00:34:43.320 generic person?

00:34:46.720 Could there

00:34:47.180 be?

00:34:50.080 First name,

00:34:51.100 Mike,

00:34:53.300 the most

00:34:54.220 generic name,

00:34:55.360 last name,

00:34:56.000 Johnson.

00:34:57.320 Is it because

00:34:58.020 they don't have

00:34:58.640 a Mike

00:34:59.000 Smith?

00:35:00.340 Is there

00:35:00.580 nobody named

00:35:02.120 John Smith

00:35:02.840 in Congress?

00:35:03.640 I feel like

00:35:04.720 they had to

00:35:05.100 find somebody

00:35:05.700 that nobody

00:35:06.260 knew or

00:35:08.320 nobody

00:35:08.700 remembered.

00:35:10.640 We're going

00:35:11.160 to have to

00:35:11.480 find somebody

00:35:12.080 that nobody

00:35:12.560 even knows

00:35:13.120 is in the

00:35:14.880 house.

00:35:15.960 Do we have

00:35:16.520 anybody that

00:35:17.140 you've just

00:35:17.840 never even

00:35:18.560 heard of?

00:35:19.420 And if you

00:35:19.940 have heard of

00:35:20.520 it, you're

00:35:20.900 confusing it

00:35:21.500 with some

00:35:21.780 other name

00:35:22.260 you heard

00:35:22.620 because Mike

00:35:23.600 Johnson's a

00:35:24.260 popular name?

00:35:25.380 Oh, yeah,

00:35:25.960 we got a

00:35:26.300 Mike Johnson.

00:35:27.340 Yeah, Mike

00:35:28.800 Johnson.

00:35:30.080 So I don't

00:35:30.900 know if you'll

00:35:31.280 win.

00:35:31.500 Some say

00:35:32.700 he is

00:35:33.220 too pro

00:35:34.200 funding of

00:35:35.060 Ukraine.

00:35:37.380 Some say

00:35:38.220 he's

00:35:38.760 tremendously

00:35:39.420 talented.

00:35:40.160 I watched

00:35:40.420 a little

00:35:40.700 clip of

00:35:42.020 him talking

00:35:42.840 to

00:35:43.280 Majorca.

00:35:45.100 And if

00:35:45.740 the only

00:35:46.040 thing you

00:35:46.420 knew about

00:35:46.840 him was

00:35:47.540 watching his

00:35:48.140 clip dressing

00:35:49.440 down Majorca,

00:35:50.880 you would

00:35:51.620 want him as

00:35:52.280 the Speaker

00:35:52.780 of the House,

00:35:53.420 if not your

00:35:54.400 president.

00:35:55.780 Yeah, he

00:35:56.680 is really

00:35:57.340 good in

00:35:57.980 public.

00:35:58.360 So if

00:35:59.840 the

00:35:59.980 Republicans

00:36:00.400 want somebody

00:36:01.100 who's

00:36:01.440 impressive and

00:36:03.080 doesn't look

00:36:03.620 like a nut,

00:36:05.680 he would be

00:36:06.100 the one.

00:36:07.240 He would be

00:36:07.640 the one.

00:36:08.240 But I do

00:36:08.780 have some

00:36:09.140 issues if

00:36:10.300 he's a

00:36:10.600 little too

00:36:11.340 pro-Ukrainian

00:36:12.800 funding.

00:36:13.720 There's probably

00:36:14.300 some balance

00:36:15.000 there that

00:36:15.520 he's going to

00:36:16.160 need to

00:36:16.560 nuance a

00:36:17.860 little bit

00:36:18.280 if he wants

00:36:19.960 to be

00:36:20.240 successful.

00:36:21.260 I'm not

00:36:21.760 sure how

00:36:22.060 much he

00:36:22.320 wants the

00:36:22.660 job,

00:36:23.740 if at

00:36:24.880 all.

00:36:25.960 But we'll

00:36:26.380 keep an

00:36:26.660 eye on

00:36:26.900 that.

00:36:27.100 Sam

00:36:28.760 Altman

00:36:29.100 had a

00:36:30.120 post on

00:36:30.940 X,

00:36:31.880 got people

00:36:32.480 yapping.

00:36:33.360 So Sam

00:36:33.740 Altman is

00:36:34.320 the founder

00:36:36.840 CEO of

00:36:37.960 ChatGPT.

00:36:39.080 So you

00:36:39.440 would think

00:36:39.960 of him as

00:36:40.400 the godfather

00:36:41.300 of AI,

00:36:42.820 at least

00:36:43.420 from the

00:36:43.880 business

00:36:44.200 sense,

00:36:44.700 not the

00:36:45.060 technical

00:36:45.360 sense.

00:36:46.620 And he

00:36:49.140 posted this.

00:36:51.120 He said,

00:36:51.560 I expect

00:36:52.040 AI to be

00:36:52.840 capable of

00:36:53.580 superhuman

00:36:54.300 persuasion

00:36:55.120 well before

00:36:56.340 it is

00:36:56.680 superhuman

00:36:57.240 at general

00:36:57.840 intelligence,

00:36:58.780 which may

00:36:59.480 lead to

00:36:59.900 some very

00:37:00.340 strange

00:37:00.780 outcomes.

00:37:04.000 Now,

00:37:04.680 where have

00:37:04.940 you heard

00:37:05.140 that before?

00:37:06.740 From me.

00:37:08.240 Right.

00:37:08.780 The big

00:37:09.720 risk of

00:37:10.280 AI is

00:37:10.840 that it's

00:37:11.080 persuasive.

00:37:13.240 And I

00:37:14.000 do think

00:37:14.400 current

00:37:14.800 technology

00:37:15.580 could get

00:37:16.560 it most

00:37:17.120 of the

00:37:17.440 way there.

00:37:19.620 But AI

00:37:20.700 has one

00:37:21.380 handicap for

00:37:22.200 persuasion.

00:37:22.800 it can

00:37:24.120 work around

00:37:24.660 it,

00:37:25.520 but it's

00:37:25.940 handicapped

00:37:26.460 compared to

00:37:26.960 humans is

00:37:27.700 that it

00:37:27.980 can't watch

00:37:28.640 its results

00:37:29.620 in real

00:37:30.040 time.

00:37:32.020 If it has

00:37:32.780 more time,

00:37:33.880 it can

00:37:34.260 watch results

00:37:35.300 slowly

00:37:36.200 materialize.

00:37:37.680 It could do

00:37:38.360 A-B testing

00:37:39.180 with different

00:37:40.440 messages and

00:37:41.400 very rapidly

00:37:42.180 just post them,

00:37:44.020 see what people

00:37:44.540 say on social

00:37:45.380 media.

00:37:45.960 It could be as

00:37:46.460 simple as

00:37:46.960 having an

00:37:48.180 account on

00:37:48.640 X and

00:37:49.920 just have

00:37:50.320 it post

00:37:51.160 things and

00:37:51.780 see what the

00:37:52.220 responses are

00:37:53.080 and then adjust

00:37:53.800 to see if it

00:37:54.380 was persuasive

00:37:55.080 or not.

00:37:56.320 So, yes,

00:37:57.140 in theory,

00:37:58.660 the AI we

00:37:59.500 already have

00:38:00.120 with a few

00:38:00.540 tweaks would

00:38:02.160 be the most

00:38:02.720 persuasive thing

00:38:03.640 we've ever

00:38:04.080 seen.

00:38:05.880 It just needs

00:38:06.820 to know how

00:38:07.240 to get feedback.

00:38:08.500 If it closes

00:38:09.480 that feedback

00:38:10.260 loop, all

00:38:12.200 bets are

00:38:12.540 off.

00:38:14.980 A lot of

00:38:15.640 people got

00:38:16.080 mad at

00:38:16.560 Sam for

00:38:17.020 being sort

00:38:17.960 of casually

00:38:19.060 just casually

00:38:20.760 mentioning an

00:38:22.540 existential threat

00:38:23.520 to humanity

00:38:24.220 that he's

00:38:25.840 working on.

00:38:26.940 I'm sympathetic

00:38:27.680 or is it

00:38:29.700 empathetic

00:38:30.240 to his

00:38:31.180 position

00:38:31.680 while also

00:38:33.120 being very

00:38:33.680 scared of

00:38:34.240 it.

00:38:36.020 Here's the

00:38:36.700 argument for

00:38:37.460 Sam Altman.

00:38:39.120 Somebody was

00:38:39.920 definitely going

00:38:40.460 to make an

00:38:40.840 AI.

00:38:42.260 Now, that's

00:38:43.120 not always a

00:38:43.820 good argument

00:38:44.260 that somebody

00:38:45.000 was going to

00:38:45.460 do it anyway,

00:38:46.900 but it is in

00:38:47.600 this case.

00:38:48.020 somebody was

00:38:49.500 definitely going

00:38:50.060 to do this.

00:38:51.360 And I'm so

00:38:52.240 glad that it's

00:38:54.180 Americans.

00:38:56.160 I mean, it

00:38:56.540 might be the

00:38:57.000 difference between

00:38:57.660 survival and

00:38:58.500 not survival.

00:38:59.660 We need to be

00:39:00.860 the best AI

00:39:02.140 wranglers in

00:39:04.640 the world.

00:39:05.480 If you're not,

00:39:06.860 you're no longer

00:39:07.600 a superpower.

00:39:10.460 So, while it

00:39:11.620 is super

00:39:12.260 dangerous territory

00:39:13.400 that we're going

00:39:14.460 to be unleashing

00:39:15.280 some tools

00:39:16.020 before we

00:39:16.600 even know

00:39:17.140 what the

00:39:18.040 impact will

00:39:18.540 be,

00:39:19.020 that's also

00:39:19.860 like most

00:39:20.380 of life.

00:39:21.980 Most of

00:39:22.740 life, if

00:39:23.700 you're doing

00:39:23.960 anything big,

00:39:25.560 it's influencing

00:39:26.720 people in both

00:39:27.520 good and bad

00:39:28.300 ways, and

00:39:28.880 nobody can

00:39:29.320 really predict

00:39:30.200 how it's

00:39:30.920 going to end

00:39:31.280 up.

00:39:32.200 So, AI is

00:39:32.780 like that.

00:39:33.640 If you have

00:39:34.320 confidence in

00:39:35.220 American

00:39:35.800 expertise and

00:39:37.940 ingenuity,

00:39:39.200 you would be a

00:39:40.040 little less

00:39:40.440 frightened about

00:39:42.040 some horrible

00:39:43.400 thing happening.

00:39:45.600 I feel like

00:39:46.640 the people

00:39:47.020 working in

00:39:47.580 this field

00:39:48.180 are our

00:39:48.700 smartest people.

00:39:51.160 By the time

00:39:51.780 you're doing

00:39:52.200 engineering for

00:39:53.080 AI or even

00:39:54.180 head of the

00:39:54.880 company, you're

00:39:55.660 not a regular

00:39:56.320 person.

00:39:57.500 You're like

00:39:58.160 an extra

00:39:58.540 smart person.

00:39:59.840 Right.

00:40:00.360 This would be

00:40:01.300 a case where

00:40:01.900 the experts

00:40:02.560 are certainly

00:40:05.440 on the case.

00:40:06.720 Now, you

00:40:07.040 might say,

00:40:07.640 Scott, you

00:40:08.800 just said that

00:40:09.460 the super

00:40:10.040 smart people are

00:40:10.800 smarter than

00:40:11.240 the experts,

00:40:11.700 but what if

00:40:12.280 the experts

00:40:12.780 are also

00:40:13.180 super smart?

00:40:14.560 I will still

00:40:15.560 take the

00:40:16.500 experts who

00:40:17.060 are not in

00:40:17.520 the field

00:40:17.920 over them.

00:40:21.080 And the

00:40:21.700 reason is,

00:40:22.620 the experts

00:40:23.080 in the field

00:40:23.760 have a

00:40:24.100 financial

00:40:24.480 interest.

00:40:26.280 The people

00:40:27.000 outside the

00:40:27.640 field don't

00:40:29.160 know as

00:40:29.520 much, but

00:40:30.840 they're looking

00:40:31.240 at the whole

00:40:31.760 field and

00:40:32.340 they're not

00:40:32.740 biased by

00:40:34.020 a direction.

00:40:37.300 So,

00:40:38.540 that's

00:40:41.140 coming.

00:40:41.700 So, I

00:40:45.960 saw the

00:40:46.280 UC Berkeley

00:40:47.520 has changed

00:40:48.360 their acronym.

00:40:49.300 It used

00:40:49.520 to be just

00:40:49.920 DEI,

00:40:50.840 diversity,

00:40:51.560 equity,

00:40:51.860 and inclusion,

00:40:52.780 but they

00:40:53.260 wanted to

00:40:53.700 add,

00:40:54.240 much like

00:40:54.900 the LGBTQ

00:40:56.440 plus thing

00:40:57.660 keeps getting

00:40:58.140 longer,

00:40:58.980 they wanted

00:40:59.420 to add a few

00:40:59.880 letters.

00:41:00.560 So, they

00:41:00.900 wanted belonging

00:41:01.600 and justice.

00:41:03.200 That's pretty

00:41:03.660 good.

00:41:03.960 I like

00:41:04.220 belonging.

00:41:05.640 We all

00:41:06.140 like justice.

00:41:06.720 So, now

00:41:08.140 it's going

00:41:08.400 to be

00:41:08.780 DEI-BJ.

00:41:12.540 DEI-BJ.

00:41:15.700 You know,

00:41:16.280 I'm not sure

00:41:16.820 they thought

00:41:17.360 it through.

00:41:19.120 I feel like,

00:41:21.280 you know what

00:41:21.760 their meetings

00:41:22.340 would have been,

00:41:23.420 the Berkeley

00:41:24.140 meetings,

00:41:24.980 they really

00:41:25.640 would have

00:41:25.940 benefited from,

00:41:27.040 what's the word?

00:41:28.260 What did they

00:41:28.980 need at this

00:41:29.500 meeting to

00:41:30.280 avoid this

00:41:30.800 problem?

00:41:31.320 It's a

00:41:31.760 diversity,

00:41:33.460 diversity.

00:41:33.900 They needed

00:41:34.620 some diversity

00:41:35.360 at the

00:41:35.720 meeting where

00:41:36.820 they decided

00:41:37.480 to add BJ.

00:41:39.740 Had I been

00:41:40.580 there, and I

00:41:41.920 know I'm not

00:41:42.540 invited, in

00:41:43.880 fact, I've

00:41:44.640 disavowed my

00:41:45.480 old alma mater

00:41:47.400 where I got

00:41:47.880 my MBA,

00:41:49.040 Berkeley, I

00:41:50.380 disavowed

00:41:50.920 them.

00:41:51.820 They disgraced

00:41:52.520 me and

00:41:52.880 embarrassed me.

00:41:53.660 I don't even

00:41:54.020 like to mention

00:41:54.640 an affiliation

00:41:55.540 with them,

00:41:56.740 which is true,

00:41:58.120 by the way.

00:41:59.240 But I would

00:41:59.940 have suggested,

00:42:00.620 you know, if

00:42:01.520 you like

00:42:01.860 belonging and

00:42:02.880 you like

00:42:03.200 justice,

00:42:03.900 there are

00:42:04.740 two orders

00:42:05.680 that those

00:42:06.100 letters could

00:42:06.640 be in.

00:42:07.200 It could

00:42:07.420 have been

00:42:07.640 JB,

00:42:08.820 DEI,

00:42:09.840 JB.

00:42:11.260 But no,

00:42:12.060 they went

00:42:12.360 with BJ,

00:42:13.920 which could

00:42:14.640 suggest that

00:42:15.360 at least one

00:42:15.880 of the people

00:42:16.280 in the

00:42:16.540 meeting was

00:42:17.320 me in

00:42:18.040 disguise.

00:42:21.180 Because if

00:42:21.780 I'm in

00:42:22.080 disguise, I'm

00:42:22.720 going to go

00:42:23.000 with BJ

00:42:23.400 every time.

00:42:24.980 It's just

00:42:25.320 if I'm

00:42:25.620 trying to

00:42:25.960 be helpful,

00:42:27.080 I'll be

00:42:27.220 like,

00:42:27.480 maybe just

00:42:29.100 reverse those

00:42:29.740 letters,

00:42:30.600 avoid some

00:42:31.100 mockery.

00:42:32.120 But no,

00:42:32.700 if I were

00:42:33.060 in disguise,

00:42:33.480 I'd be

00:42:33.940 like,

00:42:34.540 you know,

00:42:34.940 it would

00:42:35.060 be really

00:42:35.420 great to

00:42:35.860 add to

00:42:36.080 this.

00:42:37.180 Does

00:42:37.380 everybody

00:42:37.760 like

00:42:38.020 belonging?

00:42:39.340 Anybody?

00:42:40.000 Is anybody

00:42:40.320 against

00:42:40.760 belonging?

00:42:41.880 No, right?

00:42:42.560 I knew it.

00:42:43.220 You all

00:42:43.440 like belonging.

00:42:44.340 How about

00:42:44.640 this one?

00:42:45.260 Justice.

00:42:46.320 Justice?

00:42:46.940 Justice?

00:42:48.040 Who's in

00:42:48.420 favor of

00:42:48.800 justice?

00:42:49.320 All right.

00:42:50.700 Who's in

00:42:51.340 favor of

00:42:51.800 adding both

00:42:52.900 belonging and

00:42:54.180 justice to

00:42:54.860 DEI?

00:42:55.520 Everybody?

00:42:56.080 Everybody.

00:42:57.020 100%.

00:42:57.540 Thank you.

00:42:59.080 Thank you.

00:42:59.480 And that's

00:43:00.020 it.

00:43:00.660 D-I-B-J.

00:43:02.580 That's how I

00:43:03.320 would have

00:43:03.580 run the

00:43:03.900 meeting.

00:43:06.400 All right.

00:43:06.980 What are the

00:43:07.300 odds of war

00:43:07.960 with Iran?

00:43:08.680 Well,

00:43:08.940 apparently,

00:43:10.220 we've moved

00:43:11.740 two carrier

00:43:12.540 strike groups

00:43:13.260 into the

00:43:13.700 area,

00:43:14.520 11 Burt

00:43:15.420 class destroyers,

00:43:16.600 a number of

00:43:17.040 Ticonderoga

00:43:17.840 cruise cruisers,

00:43:19.080 amphibious

00:43:19.560 assault ships,

00:43:21.040 various missile

00:43:22.460 batteries,

00:43:23.360 and multiple

00:43:24.220 squadrons of

00:43:25.180 jet fighters,

00:43:25.980 F-16s,

00:43:26.880 strategic bombers,

00:43:27.660 and undisclosed

00:43:28.500 assets.

00:43:30.480 Does that

00:43:31.100 sound like a

00:43:31.640 bluff?

00:43:34.420 Do you think

00:43:35.160 we moved all

00:43:35.760 those assets in

00:43:36.540 there just to

00:43:37.140 say, oh,

00:43:38.220 you better not?

00:43:40.180 Don't get

00:43:41.000 uppity.

00:43:42.980 Well, I

00:43:44.720 think it's

00:43:45.140 both.

00:43:46.980 If it worked

00:43:47.920 as a bluff,

00:43:49.660 we'd probably

00:43:50.940 be happy about

00:43:51.620 it.

00:43:52.880 I don't think

00:43:53.640 it's a bluff.

00:43:55.180 To me, it

00:43:55.860 looks every bit

00:43:56.640 like,

00:43:57.660 because of

00:43:58.820 the expense

00:43:59.440 of moving

00:43:59.800 all these

00:44:00.200 assets.

00:44:01.600 And somebody

00:44:02.280 said, oh,

00:44:02.760 it's just

00:44:03.020 naval assets,

00:44:03.860 that's not

00:44:04.200 the expensive

00:44:04.780 stuff.

00:44:05.980 I don't

00:44:06.540 know.

00:44:07.440 I don't

00:44:07.860 think we

00:44:08.220 put all

00:44:08.620 of our

00:44:08.860 assets in

00:44:09.360 one place

00:44:09.880 like that

00:44:10.460 without

00:44:11.820 using them.

00:44:14.120 Can we

00:44:14.560 think of

00:44:15.060 any other

00:44:15.540 time that

00:44:16.180 America has

00:44:17.060 massed

00:44:18.100 military force

00:44:19.340 and then

00:44:20.600 not used

00:44:21.160 it?

00:44:21.780 Go.

00:44:22.900 Tell me

00:44:23.320 the times

00:44:23.760 that we've

00:44:24.200 massed

00:44:24.820 military force.

00:44:26.700 Well,

00:44:27.860 except for

00:44:28.420 practice.

00:44:31.480 Cuban

00:44:32.080 missile

00:44:32.420 crisis.

00:44:36.260 Pearl

00:44:36.820 Harbor.

00:44:37.740 No, I'm

00:44:38.200 talking about

00:44:38.680 massing them

00:44:39.240 to attack.

00:44:40.160 I don't

00:44:40.580 think we

00:44:40.980 massed

00:44:41.480 forces to

00:44:42.040 attack

00:44:42.520 Cuba.

00:44:43.860 Did we?

00:44:44.980 I think we

00:44:45.500 massed

00:44:45.900 forces to

00:44:46.540 blockade it.

00:44:48.520 North Korea,

00:44:49.580 I don't think

00:44:49.980 we've massed

00:44:50.700 forces for an

00:44:51.420 invasion.

00:44:52.760 Have we?

00:44:53.160 So we've

00:44:54.440 done things

00:44:54.880 like blockades,

00:44:56.620 but I can't

00:44:57.780 think of any

00:44:58.280 case where

00:44:59.380 we put

00:45:00.000 together a

00:45:00.700 massive

00:45:01.180 military force,

00:45:03.280 parked it

00:45:03.800 off the

00:45:04.220 beach from

00:45:05.380 our adversary,

00:45:06.600 and then

00:45:07.200 said, you

00:45:07.660 know, we're

00:45:08.200 happy now,

00:45:08.940 everything

00:45:09.200 worked out,

00:45:10.400 glad that

00:45:10.900 worked out,

00:45:11.440 and we go

00:45:11.720 home.

00:45:13.200 Yeah, I

00:45:13.700 don't think

00:45:14.000 so.

00:45:14.200 So I think

00:45:16.720 we have here,

00:45:17.720 unfortunately,

00:45:19.040 the ideal

00:45:19.860 situation for

00:45:20.840 war,

00:45:21.240 for the

00:45:22.700 people who

00:45:23.080 want war.

00:45:23.860 I don't

00:45:24.260 want war.

00:45:25.420 But for the

00:45:26.180 people who

00:45:26.540 want it,

00:45:27.000 they have

00:45:27.400 blundered into

00:45:28.120 an ideal

00:45:28.860 situation.

00:45:30.260 The situation

00:45:31.080 is as

00:45:31.760 follows.

00:45:32.980 Number one,

00:45:33.960 there's a

00:45:34.420 contentious

00:45:35.060 election,

00:45:36.300 and the

00:45:36.820 commander-in-chief

00:45:37.680 typically

00:45:38.800 becomes popular

00:45:40.720 when the

00:45:41.460 bullets start

00:45:41.960 flying.

00:45:43.100 So this is

00:45:43.840 a way to

00:45:44.480 get Biden's

00:45:45.080 popularity up

00:45:46.000 if we're in

00:45:46.640 a hot war

00:45:47.200 by the

00:45:47.600 election time.

00:45:49.040 So it's

00:45:49.660 possible the

00:45:50.220 polls will

00:45:50.780 reverse,

00:45:52.040 and people

00:45:52.800 will just

00:45:53.080 back the

00:45:53.480 commander-in-chief

00:45:54.180 because we

00:45:54.640 do that

00:45:54.980 kind of

00:45:55.300 reflexively.

00:45:56.800 So that's

00:45:57.300 one perfect

00:45:58.000 reason for

00:45:58.520 the Democrats.

00:46:00.140 Second

00:46:00.740 perfect reason

00:46:01.500 is that

00:46:02.380 Iran is

00:46:03.020 part of

00:46:03.400 the Ukraine

00:46:04.460 conflict,

00:46:06.200 and a

00:46:06.980 big problem

00:46:08.100 part,

00:46:08.920 because they

00:46:09.580 might help

00:46:10.160 Russia get

00:46:11.000 past sanctions

00:46:11.700 and they're

00:46:12.200 providing drones

00:46:13.200 and all these

00:46:13.920 things.

00:46:15.000 So it's

00:46:16.360 just an

00:46:16.680 extension of

00:46:17.300 the Ukraine

00:46:17.800 war,

00:46:18.320 which is an

00:46:18.700 extension of

00:46:19.560 trying to

00:46:20.920 take down

00:46:22.120 Putin and

00:46:22.600 Russia.

00:46:23.580 So the

00:46:24.080 people who

00:46:24.420 want to

00:46:24.640 take down

00:46:25.020 Putin are

00:46:26.580 probably a

00:46:27.620 little bit

00:46:28.020 pro-Iran,

00:46:28.820 because it

00:46:29.120 looks like it

00:46:29.600 might be part

00:46:30.200 of the

00:46:30.600 puzzle.

00:46:31.700 I'm not

00:46:32.020 saying that's a

00:46:32.520 good idea.

00:46:33.280 I'm saying

00:46:33.620 that's how

00:46:34.060 they might

00:46:34.380 see it.

00:46:35.460 Next,

00:46:37.300 we have

00:46:38.620 an economy

00:46:41.400 that can't

00:46:42.160 survive the

00:46:42.900 debt,

00:46:43.760 so we're

00:46:44.660 heading toward

00:46:45.200 certain doom,

00:46:45.940 if nobody's

00:46:47.800 told you

00:46:48.100 that.

00:46:48.900 I hate to

00:46:49.580 be the

00:46:49.840 first.

00:46:51.020 We don't

00:46:51.720 have a

00:46:52.080 plan to

00:46:52.620 survive our

00:46:53.220 debt.

00:46:54.540 There's no

00:46:55.180 economist who

00:46:55.920 knows how to

00:46:56.360 do it.

00:46:57.000 None.

00:46:58.240 Nobody has

00:46:58.860 even the

00:46:59.220 slightest idea

00:46:59.900 how we would

00:47:00.480 survive this

00:47:01.100 economically.

00:47:02.840 So what do

00:47:04.280 you do when

00:47:04.940 the game is

00:47:05.680 rigged against

00:47:06.280 you?

00:47:06.620 In this case,

00:47:07.200 we rigged it

00:47:07.760 against ourselves.

00:47:09.160 But what do

00:47:09.540 you do?

00:47:10.820 You throw the

00:47:11.660 board over.

00:47:12.860 That's the only

00:47:13.320 thing you can

00:47:13.780 do.

00:47:13.920 If you're

00:47:14.580 losing the

00:47:15.100 chess match

00:47:15.700 and there's

00:47:16.560 no fucking

00:47:17.440 way you can

00:47:18.040 win it,

00:47:18.460 like you

00:47:18.760 can't even

00:47:19.080 imagine a

00:47:19.660 way to win

00:47:19.980 it,

00:47:20.760 you turn it

00:47:21.320 over and

00:47:22.280 you try to

00:47:22.840 Kobayashi

00:47:23.880 Maru or

00:47:24.600 change the

00:47:25.060 game somehow.

00:47:26.220 The only way

00:47:27.000 I can think

00:47:27.500 of doing that

00:47:28.000 is starting

00:47:28.420 a world

00:47:28.760 war.

00:47:30.640 So a

00:47:31.440 world war

00:47:32.000 would do

00:47:32.960 everything from

00:47:33.760 make your

00:47:34.480 currency worthless

00:47:35.560 to bring in

00:47:36.560 Bitcoin to

00:47:37.680 who knows?

00:47:39.740 God knows

00:47:40.360 what would

00:47:40.680 happen.

00:47:42.040 But it

00:47:43.200 might be

00:47:43.740 the only

00:47:44.160 thing big

00:47:44.580 enough to

00:47:44.960 make debt

00:47:45.420 go away.

00:47:46.540 You could

00:47:47.120 easily see

00:47:47.760 that all

00:47:48.220 of our

00:47:48.480 debt would

00:47:48.880 just vanish

00:47:50.100 because it

00:47:51.500 was, for

00:47:53.100 a variety of

00:47:53.720 reasons, the

00:47:54.600 whole system

00:47:55.060 breaks down.

00:47:56.160 And at the

00:47:56.660 same time, to

00:47:57.480 save us all,

00:47:58.440 the government

00:47:58.820 says, it's

00:47:59.780 okay, it's

00:48:00.300 okay.

00:48:01.300 We'll issue

00:48:01.980 this government

00:48:02.760 crypto and

00:48:04.680 we'll just give

00:48:05.280 you a bunch of

00:48:05.880 it because

00:48:06.260 basically crypto

00:48:07.200 is just made

00:48:07.780 up.

00:48:08.780 And then you

00:48:09.420 won't have

00:48:09.760 debt.

00:48:10.600 You have this

00:48:11.120 crypto, you can

00:48:11.820 buy goods and

00:48:12.460 services, and

00:48:13.620 we will

00:48:13.960 rescue the

00:48:15.420 economy by

00:48:17.040 having a

00:48:17.520 war, which

00:48:18.220 is the only

00:48:18.660 context in

00:48:19.360 which you

00:48:19.660 could do

00:48:20.000 something like

00:48:20.520 get rid of

00:48:20.980 your cash and

00:48:22.520 make all your

00:48:22.960 debt go away.

00:48:24.340 Like, a war is

00:48:25.400 sort of the

00:48:25.800 ultimate reboot

00:48:26.640 with all of

00:48:28.260 its badness.

00:48:29.360 So I'm not

00:48:30.160 saying anybody's

00:48:30.820 planning that.

00:48:32.580 I'm saying

00:48:33.100 that, unfortunately,

00:48:34.700 the ideal

00:48:35.840 conditions for

00:48:36.720 war exist.

00:48:38.760 Unfortunately.

00:48:39.260 the other

00:48:41.120 thing is

00:48:41.600 timing.

00:48:43.000 The longer

00:48:43.600 you wait, the

00:48:44.520 more invulnerable

00:48:45.500 Iran will

00:48:46.160 become, and

00:48:47.880 the more

00:48:48.120 trouble they

00:48:48.600 will cause.

00:48:49.660 So the

00:48:50.080 longer you

00:48:50.540 wait, the

00:48:50.900 harder it

00:48:51.180 will be.

00:48:51.920 There will

00:48:52.260 never be

00:48:52.700 another time

00:48:53.280 when the

00:48:53.680 public opinion

00:48:54.480 is so

00:48:55.960 well established

00:48:59.000 in favor of

00:49:00.360 Israel at the

00:49:01.340 moment, at

00:49:03.000 least those

00:49:03.600 who are pro-Israel

00:49:04.500 to begin

00:49:04.920 with, and

00:49:06.320 would probably

00:49:08.360 have an

00:49:10.140 understanding

00:49:10.880 opinion if

00:49:13.360 America and

00:49:14.040 Israel went

00:49:14.560 hard on a

00:49:15.160 ramp.

00:49:16.020 At least it

00:49:16.620 would make

00:49:16.980 sense.

00:49:18.120 Nobody would

00:49:18.840 say, that

00:49:19.200 didn't make

00:49:19.580 any sense, or

00:49:20.940 what problem

00:49:21.880 were you trying

00:49:22.420 to solve?

00:49:23.340 Because it's

00:49:23.720 obvious what

00:49:24.260 problem.

00:49:25.580 Now, the

00:49:26.660 experts, your

00:49:28.380 David Sachs and

00:49:29.340 your Elon

00:49:29.840 Musks, the

00:49:31.120 people who are

00:49:31.500 higher than

00:49:31.920 experts in my

00:49:32.600 opinion, would

00:49:33.680 say that war

00:49:34.680 never works.

00:49:36.060 Just, that's

00:49:36.740 it.

00:49:37.500 War never

00:49:38.020 works.

00:49:38.900 Not a war

00:49:39.780 that you

00:49:40.080 start.

00:49:41.160 You know,

00:49:41.360 sometimes you

00:49:41.940 can defend

00:49:42.500 yourself and

00:49:43.060 that works.

00:49:44.100 But starting

00:49:44.780 a war is

00:49:46.180 pretty much

00:49:46.700 zero chance

00:49:48.100 of it working.

00:49:49.540 They always

00:49:50.320 last too

00:49:50.880 long.

00:49:51.660 They always

00:49:52.340 go in

00:49:52.720 completely

00:49:53.260 unpredictable

00:49:53.960 directions.

00:49:55.020 And it's

00:49:55.720 the way the

00:49:56.180 empires fall.

00:49:57.880 It's actually

00:49:58.480 the way they

00:49:59.480 fall, by

00:50:00.760 war.

00:50:02.160 So,

00:50:02.540 we have

00:50:04.500 a situation

00:50:05.060 where every

00:50:06.360 variable is

00:50:07.140 pointing toward

00:50:07.740 war, and

00:50:09.500 all the

00:50:09.900 signals from

00:50:10.580 all the

00:50:10.860 players are

00:50:11.480 pointing toward

00:50:12.020 war.

00:50:12.860 Everybody was

00:50:13.800 prepared for

00:50:14.520 war, and

00:50:15.040 they're more

00:50:15.420 prepared now.

00:50:16.960 And there's

00:50:17.420 never been a

00:50:17.940 situation where

00:50:18.920 our military

00:50:22.260 industrial complex

00:50:23.260 is clearly

00:50:23.980 calling some

00:50:25.760 of the shots.

00:50:27.160 So you've

00:50:27.580 got some

00:50:28.240 group that

00:50:28.760 could get

00:50:29.280 rich if it's

00:50:30.360 a war that

00:50:31.160 stays contained,

00:50:32.540 maybe less

00:50:33.540 so if it's

00:50:33.940 a world

00:50:34.200 war.

00:50:35.140 And it

00:50:36.460 might look

00:50:36.860 like a

00:50:37.200 good bet

00:50:37.680 to a lot

00:50:38.640 of people,

00:50:39.660 or at least

00:50:40.000 in the

00:50:40.220 short run.

00:50:42.180 So if

00:50:45.480 Israel just

00:50:46.540 waits, let's

00:50:47.580 say Israel

00:50:48.200 decides to

00:50:49.180 avoid large

00:50:50.260 scale war,

00:50:51.640 and let's

00:50:51.920 say they

00:50:52.400 somehow,

00:50:53.780 maybe with

00:50:54.320 American

00:50:54.680 pressure,

00:50:55.740 figure out

00:50:56.680 how to not

00:50:57.460 go in and

00:50:58.100 destroy all

00:50:58.820 of Gaza

00:50:59.240 city and

00:50:59.920 create a

00:51:01.780 global

00:51:02.120 conflict.

00:51:03.460 Let's say

00:51:03.860 they somehow,

00:51:04.860 and I think

00:51:05.240 it's unlikely,

00:51:06.100 but let's

00:51:06.360 say they do

00:51:06.720 it.

00:51:08.480 And then

00:51:08.900 things go

00:51:09.440 back to

00:51:10.020 something more

00:51:10.860 like normal,

00:51:12.660 which is

00:51:13.220 Ukraine's still

00:51:14.000 in a war,

00:51:14.820 Iran is still

00:51:15.520 bombing our

00:51:16.280 military bases

00:51:17.540 every day

00:51:18.180 without response,

00:51:19.780 or much

00:51:20.120 response,

00:51:21.500 with Iran

00:51:22.660 is using

00:51:23.060 their proxies

00:51:23.600 to do it.

00:51:24.700 And they

00:51:25.260 go back to

00:51:25.740 funding Hamas

00:51:26.520 and funding

00:51:27.320 Hezbollah.

00:51:29.280 What happens

00:51:29.820 to Israel

00:51:30.420 in the long

00:51:30.920 run?

00:51:32.400 Give me

00:51:32.900 any scenario

00:51:33.660 in which

00:51:34.260 Israel can

00:51:34.940 survive in

00:51:35.680 the long

00:51:36.080 run under

00:51:37.180 the current

00:51:37.720 scenario.

00:51:39.440 I can't

00:51:39.820 think of

00:51:40.100 one.

00:51:40.900 Because at

00:51:41.320 some point,

00:51:42.980 Iran and

00:51:44.040 the other

00:51:44.440 evil entities

00:51:45.720 will have

00:51:46.560 enough missiles,

00:51:48.060 and maybe

00:51:48.400 they do

00:51:48.720 already,

00:51:49.400 to obliterate

00:51:50.960 all of the

00:51:52.520 metropolitan areas

00:51:53.500 in Israel.

00:51:54.020 And they

00:51:55.280 might already

00:51:55.700 have that.

00:51:56.700 Iran might

00:51:57.140 already have

00:51:57.700 accurate enough

00:51:58.540 and sufficient

00:51:59.600 quantity of

00:52:00.220 missiles to

00:52:01.240 eliminate Israel.

00:52:02.680 Now, I don't

00:52:03.280 think they

00:52:03.540 want to do

00:52:03.880 that, because

00:52:04.300 that means

00:52:04.740 eliminating Iran

00:52:05.780 at the same

00:52:06.260 time.

00:52:06.800 There's no

00:52:07.320 way around

00:52:07.680 that.

00:52:09.060 But geography

00:52:10.640 is kind of

00:52:11.360 destiny.

00:52:13.720 And my

00:52:15.960 guess is that

00:52:16.680 if you go

00:52:17.200 500 years

00:52:18.100 into the

00:52:18.500 future,

00:52:19.560 I'll pick

00:52:19.980 500 years,

00:52:20.820 because that's

00:52:21.220 so far,

00:52:21.920 it's hard to

00:52:22.280 imagine.

00:52:22.560 In 500

00:52:23.940 years, do

00:52:25.160 you think

00:52:25.520 that Taiwan

00:52:26.740 and China

00:52:27.380 won't be

00:52:27.800 the same

00:52:28.140 country?

00:52:30.180 I mean, I

00:52:30.740 think it's

00:52:31.080 inevitable.

00:52:32.240 In 500

00:52:32.840 years, you

00:52:35.760 think that

00:52:36.160 Israel will

00:52:36.740 be in the

00:52:37.340 middle of

00:52:38.000 all these

00:52:38.360 people who

00:52:38.820 have missiles

00:52:39.340 and a

00:52:40.320 religious reason

00:52:42.080 to kill

00:52:42.740 them all?

00:52:43.300 And do you

00:52:43.600 think it'll

00:52:43.940 still be

00:52:44.320 there?

00:52:45.080 I don't

00:52:45.360 see how

00:52:45.660 it could.

00:52:47.000 I mean, I

00:52:47.880 don't have

00:52:48.140 any imagination

00:52:48.900 of how that

00:52:49.660 could be

00:52:49.960 possible.

00:52:50.360 So we

00:52:52.640 are creating

00:52:53.180 an unsustainable

00:52:54.380 situation, no

00:52:55.400 matter what

00:52:55.840 we do.

00:52:57.200 If you go

00:52:57.880 to war, it's

00:52:58.520 unsustainable.

00:52:59.300 If you don't

00:52:59.720 go to war, it's

00:53:00.400 unsustainable.

00:53:01.800 What do you

00:53:02.140 do?

00:53:03.240 Well, I

00:53:03.700 suppose maybe

00:53:04.260 there could be

00:53:04.680 some technology

00:53:05.500 that shoots

00:53:07.400 down all

00:53:07.840 rockets.

00:53:08.760 Apparently, the

00:53:09.360 U.S. has

00:53:09.920 a sort of

00:53:11.480 a laser

00:53:12.380 beam, kind

00:53:13.820 of an

00:53:14.040 anti-rocket

00:53:14.860 thing that

00:53:15.960 can fire

00:53:16.380 from ships.

00:53:17.400 I don't

00:53:18.960 think it's

00:53:19.360 quite all

00:53:20.260 the details

00:53:20.780 are worked

00:53:21.140 out.

00:53:22.080 But because

00:53:22.860 a laser

00:53:23.340 beam doesn't

00:53:23.960 need to be

00:53:24.460 reloaded, if

00:53:25.880 it has enough

00:53:26.640 power source,

00:53:27.540 maybe a small

00:53:28.200 nuke or

00:53:28.680 something, then

00:53:30.640 one anti-aircraft

00:53:32.360 weapon that's a

00:53:33.100 big laser

00:53:33.580 beam can

00:53:34.620 take out

00:53:35.140 most of

00:53:36.700 the missiles.

00:53:37.920 Because the

00:53:38.320 laser beam

00:53:38.820 reaches them

00:53:39.460 kind of

00:53:39.860 instantly, and

00:53:41.360 it'll just

00:53:41.740 go...

00:53:42.680 So maybe

00:53:46.560 technology in

00:53:47.900 five years,

00:53:50.300 if everybody

00:53:50.960 survives that

00:53:51.660 long, would

00:53:52.880 be able to

00:53:53.360 take out

00:53:53.820 pretty much

00:53:54.600 all missiles.

00:53:55.900 But then by

00:53:56.480 then, the

00:53:58.100 enemies would

00:53:58.660 have all new

00:53:59.200 weapons.

00:54:00.640 Maybe they

00:54:01.120 would have so

00:54:01.560 many drones

00:54:02.160 that no laser

00:54:03.980 could get them,

00:54:04.640 or they'd fly

00:54:05.180 low so they

00:54:06.020 can't see them,

00:54:06.780 or something

00:54:07.060 like that.

00:54:08.100 So it's

00:54:08.880 hard to come

00:54:09.880 up with a

00:54:10.340 scenario in

00:54:11.920 which...

00:54:12.140 And by the

00:54:12.400 way, I'm

00:54:12.700 very pro-Israel,

00:54:14.760 so I don't

00:54:15.300 wish bad

00:54:16.140 about anybody.

00:54:17.860 But I

00:54:20.160 just don't

00:54:20.520 have the

00:54:20.820 imagination

00:54:21.240 for how

00:54:21.820 it lasts.

00:54:23.800 Because it's

00:54:24.800 just too

00:54:25.140 hard to

00:54:25.480 defend that

00:54:26.020 territory in

00:54:26.740 the middle

00:54:27.000 of all

00:54:27.480 that badness.

00:54:29.560 Then I

00:54:29.940 saw that...

00:54:30.860 Was it

00:54:31.320 Blinken,

00:54:32.400 who said,

00:54:33.200 got to

00:54:33.460 work on

00:54:33.880 the two

00:54:35.600 country

00:54:35.980 solution?

00:54:37.340 So that

00:54:37.940 would mean

00:54:38.280 giving the

00:54:38.720 Palestinians

00:54:39.240 their own

00:54:39.680 country?

00:54:40.420 How does

00:54:40.940 that not

00:54:41.300 make everything

00:54:41.840 worse?

00:54:43.880 In what

00:54:44.640 scenario is

00:54:48.360 it not

00:54:48.700 worse?

00:54:49.240 I mean,

00:54:49.760 they tried

00:54:50.340 it with

00:54:50.600 Hamas.

00:54:51.520 Hey,

00:54:51.820 Hamas,

00:54:52.280 you can

00:54:52.520 have your

00:54:52.820 own

00:54:53.000 territory,

00:54:54.240 you can

00:54:54.620 be basically

00:54:55.280 our neighbor,

00:54:56.780 and just

00:54:57.720 do what you

00:54:58.060 want to

00:54:58.300 do.

00:54:59.080 And that

00:54:59.460 creates

00:54:59.820 Hamas.

00:55:01.320 And it

00:55:01.800 gives them

00:55:02.160 a safe

00:55:02.720 space to

00:55:03.240 operate from.

00:55:03.740 Why would

00:55:04.480 they ever

00:55:04.880 do that

00:55:05.280 again?

00:55:07.060 It seems

00:55:07.660 to me

00:55:08.040 absurd that

00:55:09.820 Israel would

00:55:10.520 ever allow

00:55:11.080 a two-state

00:55:11.820 solution when

00:55:13.740 any state

00:55:14.660 that is

00:55:14.960 formed will

00:55:15.720 immediately

00:55:16.320 start activating

00:55:17.680 their terrorist

00:55:18.460 forces to

00:55:19.160 attack Israel

00:55:19.780 again.

00:55:21.360 Which is

00:55:22.040 not to

00:55:22.400 say that

00:55:23.880 the vast

00:55:24.320 majority of

00:55:24.960 the Palestinians

00:55:25.760 are not

00:55:26.540 peaceful people

00:55:27.560 who just

00:55:27.840 want to be

00:55:28.160 left alone.

00:55:29.960 But you

00:55:30.920 know which

00:55:31.260 way it

00:55:31.540 goes.

00:55:31.980 There will

00:55:32.140 be enough

00:55:32.740 people in

00:55:33.400 the population

00:55:34.180 that won't

00:55:36.160 harm that

00:55:37.060 they will

00:55:37.420 eventually be

00:55:38.240 in charge.

00:55:41.080 how is

00:55:43.860 Israel's

00:55:44.600 survival

00:55:45.260 threatened?

00:55:46.320 They have

00:55:46.720 90% of

00:55:47.560 the land.

00:55:49.580 You're

00:55:50.160 going to

00:55:50.260 need to

00:55:50.500 ask better

00:55:50.940 questions than

00:55:51.620 that.

00:55:54.940 Maybe

00:55:55.520 you're new

00:55:55.880 here.

00:55:57.320 All right.

00:55:59.200 So

00:55:59.680 everything

00:56:01.920 that looks

00:56:02.380 scary has

00:56:03.460 the same

00:56:04.120 pattern.

00:56:07.620 Everything

00:56:08.000 that's scaring

00:56:08.760 us right

00:56:09.200 now is a

00:56:09.960 straight line

00:56:10.820 prediction.

00:56:12.960 The

00:56:13.480 imagination

00:56:14.160 that you

00:56:14.720 could sit

00:56:15.600 in the

00:56:15.860 present and

00:56:16.520 say okay

00:56:17.060 if things

00:56:18.340 keep going

00:56:19.020 the way

00:56:19.300 they're going

00:56:19.840 it will

00:56:21.080 be doom.

00:56:22.060 But that

00:56:22.360 would be

00:56:22.580 almost

00:56:22.820 everything.

00:56:24.800 We are

00:56:25.380 a world

00:56:25.780 that is

00:56:26.240 good at

00:56:26.700 adjusting

00:56:27.200 when it's

00:56:28.420 emergency

00:56:28.900 and we

00:56:29.300 need to.

00:56:30.220 So

00:56:30.380 probably

00:56:31.100 the future

00:56:32.520 will not

00:56:32.960 look like

00:56:33.380 anything we

00:56:33.900 predicted.

00:56:35.440 Me or

00:56:36.120 anybody else.

00:56:37.100 Probably.

00:56:37.880 Because there

00:56:38.240 are just too

00:56:38.600 many variables.

00:56:39.460 So why

00:56:41.780 do we make

00:56:42.280 straight line

00:56:42.880 predictions in

00:56:43.700 the first

00:56:44.000 place?

00:56:44.940 Like why

00:56:45.320 would I

00:56:45.640 even bother

00:56:46.220 making a

00:56:46.740 prediction

00:56:47.040 when I

00:56:48.040 know that

00:56:48.480 the

00:56:48.860 straight line

00:56:49.520 prediction

00:56:49.960 method

00:56:50.520 basically never

00:56:51.860 works?

00:56:53.140 And the

00:56:53.640 answer is

00:56:54.060 you make

00:56:54.600 straight line

00:56:55.160 predictions so

00:56:56.040 that you

00:56:56.300 don't end

00:56:56.820 up on that

00:56:57.300 line.

00:56:58.680 That's how

00:56:59.120 you warn

00:56:59.600 everybody okay

00:57:00.440 if you don't

00:57:01.060 do something

00:57:01.780 here's where

00:57:02.940 you're going

00:57:03.280 to end up.

00:57:04.160 That's very

00:57:04.560 useful.

00:57:05.340 But it

00:57:05.580 doesn't mean

00:57:05.920 you'll end

00:57:06.240 up there.

00:57:06.640 It means

00:57:07.420 that's the

00:57:07.840 warning to

00:57:08.520 make sure

00:57:08.840 you don't

00:57:09.280 end up

00:57:09.660 there.

00:57:11.900 All right.

00:57:13.960 In the

00:57:14.620 weirdest least

00:57:16.140 expected news

00:57:17.180 the UFC

00:57:18.880 has announced

00:57:20.720 that Bud

00:57:21.380 Light will

00:57:21.800 be its

00:57:22.120 official beer.

00:57:23.840 I swear to

00:57:24.320 God I'm not

00:57:24.760 making that

00:57:25.240 up.

00:57:26.780 Doesn't it

00:57:27.400 sound like I'm

00:57:27.900 making that

00:57:28.320 up?

00:57:29.140 It sounds

00:57:29.520 like the

00:57:29.840 beginning of

00:57:30.300 a joke

00:57:30.680 right?

00:57:30.940 I guess

00:57:35.140 Dana White

00:57:35.800 has a long

00:57:37.800 history with

00:57:38.640 Anheuser-Busch

00:57:39.820 being a

00:57:40.840 sponsor and

00:57:41.700 thought it

00:57:42.360 was the

00:57:42.840 right move.

00:57:44.660 I guess

00:57:45.000 Sean Hannity

00:57:45.580 asked him if

00:57:46.260 it was all

00:57:46.920 about money

00:57:47.500 but he said

00:57:48.520 that was the

00:57:49.000 furthest

00:57:49.320 thing from

00:57:51.100 his mind

00:57:51.620 was money.

00:57:54.320 Is that

00:57:55.080 ever the

00:57:55.580 furthest

00:57:55.920 thing from

00:57:56.340 anybody's

00:57:56.820 mind?

00:57:58.320 Have I

00:57:58.680 ever mentioned

00:57:59.500 followed the

00:58:02.800 money?

00:58:03.840 That the

00:58:04.240 money is the

00:58:04.980 thing that

00:58:05.300 predicts no

00:58:06.120 matter what

00:58:06.520 people say

00:58:07.000 about it?

00:58:08.020 If you

00:58:08.600 followed his

00:58:09.120 words I

00:58:10.360 don't know

00:58:10.680 if those

00:58:11.040 would predict

00:58:11.580 but if you

00:58:12.580 follow the

00:58:13.000 money yes

00:58:13.700 it does.

00:58:14.720 Yes it

00:58:14.980 does.

00:58:15.800 Scott would

00:58:16.860 you be

00:58:17.300 willing to

00:58:17.780 take Bud

00:58:18.260 Light as

00:58:19.440 your sponsor?

00:58:20.660 No.

00:58:21.520 No.

00:58:22.280 No.

00:58:22.460 No.

00:58:22.780 I wouldn't

00:58:23.720 want that

00:58:24.160 embarrassment

00:58:25.660 and reputational

00:58:26.660 risk.

00:58:27.580 Scott would

00:58:28.080 you take

00:58:28.560 a hundred

00:58:28.940 million

00:58:29.280 dollars

00:58:29.820 for Bud

00:58:31.180 Light to

00:58:31.520 be your

00:58:31.820 sponsor?

00:58:33.380 Well you

00:58:33.940 know they're

00:58:34.260 not all

00:58:34.640 bad.

00:58:36.180 I'm sure

00:58:36.560 their drink

00:58:36.960 is quite

00:58:37.320 delicious.

00:58:38.620 And although

00:58:39.400 I'm anti

00:58:40.240 alcohol well

00:58:41.680 it's not

00:58:42.540 for me to

00:58:43.140 tell you how

00:58:43.560 to live

00:58:43.840 your life.

00:58:45.140 Live your

00:58:45.580 life.

00:58:46.700 Make your

00:58:47.020 own decisions

00:58:47.620 really.

00:58:49.360 Yeah.

00:58:49.800 For a hundred

00:58:50.320 million dollars

00:58:51.040 I would get

00:58:51.500 real flexible.

00:58:53.300 So would

00:58:53.600 you.

00:58:54.700 I know if

00:58:55.180 you're thinking

00:58:55.540 there oh

00:58:56.300 Scott you'd

00:58:56.920 sell out.

00:58:57.960 Fuck you.

00:58:58.500 You'd take

00:58:59.000 a hundred

00:58:59.260 million dollars

00:58:59.920 and you'd

00:59:00.300 know it.

00:59:00.920 Don't even

00:59:01.460 pretend you

00:59:02.240 wouldn't.

00:59:03.140 Because it's

00:59:03.760 just beer.

00:59:05.420 So if Dana

00:59:06.400 White did it

00:59:08.240 for the money

00:59:08.820 he is in

00:59:10.500 business.

00:59:12.640 Apparently he's

00:59:13.400 a really good

00:59:14.200 business person.

00:59:15.780 That's fine.

00:59:16.760 That's fine.

00:59:17.840 Do you think

00:59:18.240 anybody's not

00:59:18.880 going to watch

00:59:19.260 UFC because

00:59:20.200 of Bud Light

00:59:20.900 being the

00:59:21.320 advertiser?

00:59:21.740 I don't

00:59:23.680 think so.

00:59:24.880 I think the

00:59:25.360 people who

00:59:25.760 like UFC

00:59:26.340 are just

00:59:26.760 going to

00:59:26.960 still watch

00:59:27.420 it because

00:59:27.700 they like

00:59:28.040 it.

00:59:29.100 And the

00:59:29.600 reputation of

00:59:30.280 the UFC

00:59:30.700 is so strong

00:59:31.720 among its

00:59:32.960 fans that

00:59:34.580 they can

00:59:35.000 handle the

00:59:35.460 hit.

00:59:36.700 So I

00:59:37.380 don't hate

00:59:38.220 that a

00:59:40.580 campaign that

00:59:43.180 maybe hurt

00:59:43.800 Bud Light

00:59:44.240 for a while

00:59:44.780 was sort of

00:59:45.300 a warning

00:59:45.680 shot.

00:59:46.480 But I don't

00:59:46.960 want them to

00:59:47.400 go into

00:59:47.620 business.

00:59:48.080 So if

00:59:49.860 Dana White

00:59:50.400 can help

00:59:50.860 rehabilitate

00:59:51.580 them as

00:59:52.120 a successful

00:59:53.300 company,

00:59:55.000 I don't know.

00:59:55.660 That's not the

00:59:56.080 worst thing in

00:59:56.500 the world.

00:59:57.460 So I don't

00:59:57.880 have any

00:59:58.320 objection to

00:59:58.960 this.

00:59:59.240 It's just an

00:59:59.640 interesting

00:59:59.960 story.

01:00:04.480 I don't know

01:00:05.080 what AI can

01:00:05.640 do that

01:00:06.440 blew my

01:00:06.900 mind.

01:00:08.280 So the

01:00:09.440 other day I

01:00:10.020 was in my

01:00:10.420 man cave.

01:00:11.460 I sat down

01:00:12.020 on my

01:00:12.260 electric drum

01:00:13.540 kit and

01:00:15.620 started playing

01:00:16.080 around.

01:00:16.860 And if you

01:00:17.700 don't know

01:00:18.020 I'm at

01:00:18.520 the beginner

01:00:19.440 level of

01:00:20.880 drumming

01:00:21.440 skill.

01:00:22.780 And suddenly

01:00:23.520 something started

01:00:24.360 coming out of

01:00:25.020 my drumming

01:00:25.720 that almost

01:00:27.420 didn't feel

01:00:27.780 like it came

01:00:28.260 from me

01:00:28.700 because it

01:00:29.920 was way

01:00:30.340 better than

01:00:30.860 I know

01:00:31.240 how to

01:00:31.520 drum.

01:00:33.220 So when

01:00:34.760 it started

01:00:35.200 I thought

01:00:36.260 there's

01:00:36.840 something

01:00:37.060 happening

01:00:37.460 here that's

01:00:38.260 almost

01:00:39.300 magical.

01:00:40.460 It's like

01:00:40.860 it's above

01:00:41.320 my ability

01:00:42.000 and I seem

01:00:42.760 to be able

01:00:43.140 to do it.

01:00:43.760 And I'm

01:00:43.960 not talking

01:00:44.460 like a

01:00:45.440 little bit

01:00:45.860 above my

01:00:46.340 ability.

01:00:46.660 It was

01:00:47.620 more like

01:00:48.200 twice as

01:00:49.660 good as

01:00:50.380 my current

01:00:51.140 ability.

01:00:52.320 So much

01:00:52.780 so that I

01:00:53.260 don't think

01:00:53.580 I could

01:00:53.840 do it if

01:00:54.220 I sat

01:00:54.540 down to

01:00:54.840 try it

01:00:55.160 right now.

01:00:56.040 Something

01:00:56.460 happened that

01:00:57.920 felt like the

01:00:58.720 divine was

01:00:59.800 channeling through

01:01:01.140 me for a

01:01:01.640 moment.

01:01:02.720 Probably I was

01:01:03.240 just high.

01:01:04.340 But so I

01:01:06.260 had this

01:01:06.560 experience while

01:01:07.340 I was doing

01:01:07.760 it.

01:01:08.380 And I

01:01:08.660 thought my

01:01:09.120 God does

01:01:09.520 that sound

01:01:09.920 amazing or

01:01:10.520 what?

01:01:11.080 So I hit

01:01:11.540 the record

01:01:12.540 button and

01:01:13.880 recorded it.

01:01:14.520 And I

01:01:14.980 played it

01:01:15.280 back a

01:01:15.560 bunch of

01:01:15.800 times and

01:01:16.180 I thought

01:01:16.480 I really

01:01:18.600 enjoyed listening

01:01:19.460 to it.

01:01:20.980 And I

01:01:21.240 wasn't sure

01:01:21.760 if it's

01:01:22.060 because I

01:01:22.580 created it

01:01:23.400 because sometimes

01:01:24.220 that makes

01:01:25.140 you want to

01:01:25.460 look at it

01:01:25.800 more.

01:01:26.560 But I

01:01:27.380 put it in

01:01:27.740 my headphones

01:01:28.300 and I

01:01:28.860 thought holy

01:01:29.520 shit this

01:01:30.920 is really

01:01:31.280 moving me.

01:01:32.560 Like I

01:01:32.940 can actually

01:01:33.340 feel something.

01:01:34.700 So I

01:01:35.200 called my

01:01:35.660 composition

01:01:36.260 pacing and

01:01:37.900 leading because

01:01:39.220 some of you

01:01:40.440 know that my

01:01:40.980 long term plan is

01:01:42.420 building my

01:01:43.020 talent stack.

01:01:44.520 And one

01:01:45.140 of the

01:01:45.280 things I've

01:01:45.660 always been

01:01:46.000 interested in

01:01:46.680 besides just

01:01:47.560 general interest

01:01:48.300 in playing

01:01:48.680 drums was the

01:01:51.280 persuasive ability

01:01:52.400 of drums.

01:01:54.440 Drums are very

01:01:55.240 persuasive and

01:01:56.260 always have been

01:01:56.840 through history.

01:01:57.720 You know you do

01:01:58.080 your drums before

01:01:58.860 you go to war.

01:02:00.240 You know tribes

01:02:00.780 would do drums to

01:02:01.720 dance around and

01:02:02.500 scare the lions

01:02:03.180 away.

01:02:04.120 So there's

01:02:04.600 something about

01:02:04.980 the drum beat

01:02:05.640 something about

01:02:06.900 dancing that is

01:02:08.660 hyper persuasive.

01:02:11.480 So I wanted to

01:02:12.420 learn that and

01:02:13.320 see if I could

01:02:14.000 maybe find any

01:02:15.240 Venn diagram

01:02:15.980 there or find

01:02:17.420 some way that

01:02:17.940 those two

01:02:18.360 talents could

01:02:18.900 work together.

01:02:20.860 So what I

01:02:21.580 realized was that

01:02:23.040 the beat I

01:02:23.980 had created

01:02:24.520 because it came

01:02:26.380 out of my

01:02:26.760 brain and my

01:02:27.480 brain is a

01:02:28.480 certain way it

01:02:29.920 was pacing and

01:02:30.620 leading.

01:02:31.540 So the beat

01:02:32.500 when it was

01:02:33.020 consistent was

01:02:33.860 the pacing and

01:02:35.040 if you like the

01:02:35.720 beat then I

01:02:37.180 could take you

01:02:37.820 someplace that

01:02:38.780 even music

01:02:39.460 shouldn't go.

01:02:40.680 In other words

01:02:41.160 the beat was

01:02:43.020 just sort of

01:02:43.420 the beat but

01:02:44.720 when I would

01:02:45.320 deviate from

01:02:46.440 it sometimes

01:02:48.160 I would do it

01:02:49.020 violating musical

01:02:50.340 rules.

01:02:51.820 For example my

01:02:52.480 timing might be a

01:02:53.280 little behind the

01:02:54.540 beat or not

01:02:56.020 and there would

01:02:59.080 be some

01:02:59.460 imperfections there.

01:03:01.840 Now when I

01:03:03.280 played it back I

01:03:04.440 could hear my own

01:03:05.180 imperfections.

01:03:06.020 I could hear the

01:03:06.400 timing problems and

01:03:07.620 maybe I didn't hit a

01:03:08.700 device just right but

01:03:10.520 here's a weird thing

01:03:11.360 that happened.

01:03:13.560 It was the errors

01:03:14.960 that made it good

01:03:15.800 to listen to.

01:03:17.640 It was the errors

01:03:18.860 and that's why

01:03:20.700 drum machines

01:03:22.040 have not

01:03:23.080 completely replaced

01:03:24.240 people because

01:03:25.600 drum machines

01:03:26.800 don't make errors.

01:03:28.840 When I listened

01:03:29.720 to it it was

01:03:30.480 absolutely the

01:03:31.660 errors that kept

01:03:32.520 me just stuck

01:03:34.460 to it and why I

01:03:35.320 played it a hundred

01:03:35.900 times.

01:03:36.820 It wasn't the

01:03:37.640 parts I did right

01:03:38.520 it's the parts I

01:03:40.060 did wrong after

01:03:41.120 I'd done something

01:03:41.800 right.

01:03:43.100 So it's that

01:03:43.920 order of things

01:03:44.780 that you do the

01:03:46.080 wrong thing after

01:03:46.960 you do the right

01:03:47.520 thing.

01:03:48.040 The right thing is

01:03:48.780 called pacing.

01:03:50.420 So if I do a

01:03:51.200 good beat and

01:03:52.560 you're all bopping

01:03:53.240 to it I've

01:03:54.960 paced you.

01:03:55.680 We're all on the

01:03:56.440 same page.

01:03:57.140 I'm creating the

01:03:57.720 beat and you're

01:03:58.320 matching it.

01:03:59.240 Now I can lead

01:04:00.900 you because you're

01:04:02.560 together.

01:04:03.560 We're connected.

01:04:04.540 Now I go

01:04:05.060 pop up

01:04:05.440 and maybe there's

01:04:07.840 a mistake

01:04:08.280 there.

01:04:09.320 Like you

01:04:09.720 could even

01:04:10.040 pick it up

01:04:10.520 it's like I

01:04:11.100 feel like that

01:04:11.640 beat like it

01:04:12.940 was a little

01:04:13.280 late.

01:04:14.640 You know that

01:04:15.020 hit and you

01:04:16.220 might be right.

01:04:17.580 But by then

01:04:18.320 because you've

01:04:20.080 been paced the

01:04:21.420 leading would

01:04:22.140 sound correct.

01:04:24.240 In other words

01:04:24.820 the wrong stuff

01:04:25.940 musically would

01:04:27.500 sound right to

01:04:28.300 you because I'd

01:04:29.220 paced you.

01:04:30.200 So that's one

01:04:31.160 of the many

01:04:31.900 things I'm

01:04:32.380 looking at in

01:04:33.340 terms of

01:04:33.740 persuasion and

01:04:34.840 beat.

01:04:35.580 things got

01:04:38.580 even more

01:04:39.020 interesting.

01:04:39.840 So I posted

01:04:40.660 it but in

01:04:41.640 order to get

01:04:42.140 it on my

01:04:42.480 phone I had

01:04:43.700 to just hold

01:04:44.400 my phone in

01:04:45.080 front of my

01:04:45.540 drums and I

01:04:46.920 just replayed

01:04:47.740 through my

01:04:48.300 speakers.

01:04:49.380 So I replayed

01:04:50.280 through my

01:04:50.620 speakers and

01:04:51.180 recorded a

01:04:51.740 video of it

01:04:52.320 just of the

01:04:52.940 empty drums.

01:04:54.340 So you can

01:04:54.780 imagine now

01:04:55.460 that it's a

01:04:56.820 recording of

01:04:58.420 a recording

01:04:59.040 taken from

01:05:00.540 a speaker

01:05:01.040 from a

01:05:02.000 little phone.

01:05:03.100 So we're

01:05:03.620 talking pretty

01:05:04.120 low fidelity

01:05:04.840 here, right?

01:05:06.480 So I put

01:05:07.260 that on

01:05:07.560 social media

01:05:08.200 and an

01:05:11.760 ex-user

01:05:12.180 called

01:05:12.520 Stormcrow

01:05:13.280 underscore

01:05:14.720 J-E

01:05:15.400 apparently

01:05:17.160 took that

01:05:18.000 beat and

01:05:18.900 used some

01:05:19.840 AI magic

01:05:20.860 and added

01:05:22.560 some music

01:05:23.720 to the

01:05:24.080 background

01:05:24.520 and turned

01:05:25.880 it into

01:05:26.260 a music

01:05:27.360 video.

01:05:28.860 He says

01:05:29.680 he spent

01:05:30.060 34 minutes

01:05:31.080 doing it.

01:05:33.020 34 minutes.

01:05:34.840 You want

01:05:35.120 to hear

01:05:35.320 it?

01:05:35.540 You want

01:05:37.180 to hear

01:05:37.340 it?

01:05:58.600 What do you

01:05:59.340 think?

01:06:00.960 Hear

01:06:01.360 song?

01:06:07.080 Look at

01:06:07.500 the video.

01:06:31.360 up and

01:06:35.560 SPOES

01:06:37.720 and

01:06:39.960 listen

01:06:40.300 and

01:06:40.400 connect

01:06:40.800 and

01:06:41.380 drop

01:06:41.740 the

01:06:42.200 structure

01:06:42.280 and

01:06:42.380 flow

01:06:44.260 and

01:06:44.980 shift

01:06:45.280 to the

01:06:45.900 tone

01:06:46.300 and

01:06:46.400 of the

01:06:46.960 Ambient

01:06:47.580 and

01:06:47.820 change

01:06:48.180 through

01:06:48.780 this

01:06:50.080 and

01:06:50.840 that

01:06:51.720 zo

01:06:52.540 bolt

01:06:53.960 and

01:06:54.660 move

01:06:54.980 in

01:06:55.660 a

01:06:56.420 to the

01:06:57.280 hefty

01:06:57.860 tune

01:06:58.260 Now, here's the thing you need to know.

01:07:08.080 I've always told you I like to have a series of ambitions which are reasonable,

01:07:15.060 you know, things I could actually accomplish.

01:07:17.140 But I always like to have at least one ambition, usually more than one,

01:07:21.560 that is literally just stupid, like stupid and impossible.

01:07:26.080 And, for example, I've told you before, I long had the sort of fantasy

01:07:33.420 that someday I would go talk to whoever was the president in the Oval Office

01:07:38.500 because I'd done something worth being invited.

01:07:42.140 And that actually happened.

01:07:44.700 Now, what are the odds of that,

01:07:47.240 that that specific thought that I've had since I was young

01:07:52.340 would actually literally happen?

01:07:54.320 And I didn't make it happen.

01:07:55.800 I just did my thing and then it happened.

01:07:58.640 So, here's another one.

01:08:02.220 One of the things I have long believed I could do,

01:08:05.740 and this is just stupid,

01:08:07.840 is writing his song.

01:08:12.500 Now, what's stupid about it is I don't have any musical ability.

01:08:17.660 I don't have natural ability,

01:08:19.380 and I don't have trained ability.

01:08:22.220 I have neither trained nor natural ability.

01:08:25.440 I also barely listen to music.

01:08:28.040 It's not even a genre that I enjoy outside of utility.

01:08:31.780 I use it for exercise and stuff.

01:08:33.980 But I don't just listen to music.

01:08:36.520 I don't even like it that much.

01:08:39.400 So, under those conditions,

01:08:41.440 what are the odds that I could write a hit song?

01:08:46.820 Seems pretty unlikely, right?

01:08:48.460 But that's what makes it a cool ambition,

01:08:51.720 is that it's so unlikely.

01:08:54.880 And then I'm listening to this damn thing,

01:08:58.180 and I'm thinking,

01:08:59.960 I could actually listen to that a lot.

01:09:02.060 If this were on the charts,

01:09:06.120 it would actually do pretty well.

01:09:08.520 Am I wrong?

01:09:10.060 Am I wrong that this could be an actual commercial product?

01:09:14.940 I think it could.

01:09:16.860 Now, I had one sad realization.

01:09:23.260 Maybe I shouldn't admit it.

01:09:25.080 When I listened to the drums,

01:09:26.800 I thought to myself,

01:09:28.440 damn, I was a lot sharper than I remember.

01:09:31.020 I feel like,

01:09:33.280 you know, when I played it back,

01:09:34.480 and I was playing it back the other day,

01:09:35.800 I thought,

01:09:36.480 it wasn't that good.

01:09:38.980 And then I realized that it wasn't my drumming.

01:09:43.960 Somehow,

01:09:45.100 he either sampled a part of it,

01:09:47.460 and then it just repeats.

01:09:49.480 I think he just sampled the part that was tight.

01:09:52.540 So I had some tight parts and some loose parts.

01:09:55.200 I think he just took a tight part,

01:09:57.260 and then,

01:09:58.040 and repeated it.

01:09:59.940 And do you know why I know it's not my drumming?

01:10:03.900 Because I drummed it in 6-4 time.

01:10:07.280 Accidentally.

01:10:07.860 It was just sort of what came out of me.

01:10:10.120 But this is 4-4.

01:10:12.240 So he took off a couple of beats

01:10:14.340 and made it 4-4 time.

01:10:17.200 So I'm not even sure I can claim

01:10:19.720 that this is my beat.

01:10:21.340 But, you know,

01:10:22.560 it sounds pretty similar to what I created.

01:10:25.080 And who knows if somebody else has created

01:10:27.760 the same beat a million times in the past.

01:10:31.460 But anyway,

01:10:32.240 it's a funny world.

01:10:34.660 And this is one of those situations

01:10:36.140 that makes you wonder,

01:10:37.700 can you control the future by your thoughts?

01:10:42.140 Can you mentally imagine something so clearly

01:10:45.420 that the simulation that we live in,

01:10:49.220 or you could say God,

01:10:51.280 delivers it?

01:10:53.480 I mean,

01:10:53.800 how weird is it

01:10:54.700 that I've had,

01:10:56.420 I don't know,

01:10:57.820 a 50-year ambition

01:10:59.540 of writing a hit song

01:11:01.360 without musical ability?

01:11:04.100 That's always been the key part of it,

01:11:06.180 that I would write a hit song

01:11:07.620 without being musical.

01:11:10.020 It's really dumb

01:11:11.040 to even have that goal.

01:11:15.360 But this came pretty close.

01:11:17.760 So that, ladies and gentlemen,

01:11:19.320 is my show for the day.

01:11:23.880 Thanks for joining,

01:11:24.860 and thanks on YouTube

01:11:26.040 for putting up with

01:11:27.220 all of my trials and tribulations

01:11:28.900 of trying to get the sound to work.

01:11:31.600 I'll tell you one thing I've learned

01:11:33.900 is that nothing works better

01:11:35.220 than a clip-on lavalier.

01:11:38.740 And this one's wireless.

01:11:40.200 They work really well, too,

01:11:41.480 if you remember to charge them.

01:11:43.660 But just the clip-on

01:11:45.100 or the wireless clip-on

01:11:46.460 for a podcast,

01:11:49.440 it's about as good as you can do.

01:11:51.580 Now, I think it was yesterday,

01:11:53.820 I did a brief live stream

01:11:56.420 with just the locals people,

01:11:59.140 and I was testing

01:12:00.420 sort of one of these

01:12:01.840 big podcaster microphones.

01:12:03.700 I've had it for a long time,

01:12:04.800 but could never quite get it

01:12:06.940 to do what I want.

01:12:08.220 So I was asking people,

01:12:09.240 what do you think about this

01:12:10.200 big professional-looking microphone,

01:12:12.720 good or bad?

01:12:13.940 Here's what I learned instantly.

01:12:16.500 Number one,

01:12:17.800 the better your microphone,

01:12:19.700 the more likely people will say

01:12:21.960 it has hiss.

01:12:22.740 I don't know why,

01:12:27.720 but if it's a really good microphone,

01:12:29.640 somebody's going to say it has hiss.

01:12:32.540 Somebody's going to say

01:12:33.340 you've got the gain

01:12:34.280 turned up too much.

01:12:36.520 Say, I can't turn up

01:12:37.700 any gain on this.

01:12:40.160 Right?

01:12:40.460 I could put it through a mixer,

01:12:42.160 but don't need to.

01:12:43.880 Right?

01:12:44.380 Other people said

01:12:45.460 it ruined the visual

01:12:46.660 because it was sort of

01:12:47.920 partially in the picture.

01:12:49.700 Other people said

01:12:51.140 I would have to fix my lighting

01:12:52.620 because the microphone

01:12:54.660 cast a shadow on me,

01:12:56.500 which is true.

01:12:58.520 So introducing

01:13:00.060 the professional microphone

01:13:01.520 would add something like

01:13:03.540 six to ten failure points

01:13:05.580 to what is already

01:13:07.380 too complicated.

01:13:09.840 Six to ten failure points.

01:13:12.000 Like extra things

01:13:12.920 that would bother the audience.

01:13:14.420 But if I don't do

01:13:15.260 any of those things

01:13:16.380 and I just clip this

01:13:18.200 little messy thing

01:13:19.080 to my shirt,

01:13:19.700 everybody says,

01:13:22.240 oh, that's good enough.

01:13:24.880 I don't know why

01:13:25.960 this doesn't create

01:13:26.860 the hiss that they

01:13:27.820 complain about

01:13:28.440 on the good microphones,

01:13:29.600 but there we are.

01:13:32.460 It's still Cynics 4 time.

01:13:35.800 I thought I counted it down

01:13:37.120 as four.

01:13:38.900 But I think I told you earlier

01:13:40.660 I'm not musical.

01:13:44.720 So, and then somebody else

01:13:46.300 is saying it's 4-4.

01:13:47.280 I thought it was 4-4.

01:13:48.200 I thought I wrote it in 6

01:13:50.600 and it came in as 4.

01:13:53.980 Anyway.

01:13:54.960 How many of you

01:13:55.580 don't know what that means?

01:13:57.700 4-4 time versus 6-4 time?

01:14:01.160 Because I didn't know

01:14:01.960 what it meant,

01:14:02.660 you know,

01:14:03.420 not too long ago.

01:14:06.140 Sort of do.

01:14:06.780 Let me see if I can explain it

01:14:09.620 better than music teachers

01:14:11.240 explain it.

01:14:14.620 So, if you already know music,

01:14:16.420 all you're testing is to see

01:14:17.560 if it's a good explanation.

01:14:19.160 Okay?

01:14:20.020 Because I've heard it

01:14:20.920 explained to me a million times

01:14:22.340 and it's always like,

01:14:23.580 what?

01:14:24.740 What?

01:14:25.000 So, here's my explanation.

01:14:27.200 I don't know if it's right.

01:14:28.760 This might be wrong.

01:14:30.380 But it's 4-4 or 6-4 or 6-8.

01:14:33.740 So, it's a number over a number.

01:14:36.120 The bottom number

01:14:37.240 is telling you

01:14:38.720 what each of the notes

01:14:39.860 are worth

01:14:40.760 in terms of timing.

01:14:42.880 So, the 4 is telling you

01:14:44.380 that a quarter note

01:14:45.420 is going to be like one beat.

01:14:47.840 And the top number

01:14:49.580 is the more interesting one

01:14:50.920 because the bottom one

01:14:51.760 is usually 4, right?

01:14:53.180 It's almost always 4.

01:14:54.080 So, you can ignore

01:14:55.380 the bottom one

01:14:56.000 for all practical purposes

01:14:57.180 because it's pretty much

01:14:58.540 always 4.

01:14:59.200 Sometimes it's 7-8 or something

01:15:00.740 but that's weird.

01:15:02.060 Led Zeppelin.

01:15:04.680 But the top number,

01:15:06.740 the 6 or the 4,

01:15:08.460 is simply

01:15:09.120 how many beats

01:15:10.180 before it repeats.

01:15:13.080 In other words,

01:15:14.200 does it go 4 beats

01:15:15.280 and then it repeats

01:15:16.500 those 4 beats?

01:15:17.420 Or does it go 6

01:15:18.480 and then it repeats

01:15:19.980 the 6?

01:15:20.820 That's all the 6

01:15:21.760 and the 4 are, right?

01:15:22.580 Am I wrong?

01:15:24.080 That is the correct...

01:15:27.540 It's about

01:15:28.200 the repeating

01:15:29.880 of the beat.

01:15:33.520 Yeah.

01:15:33.980 All right.

01:15:35.180 So,

01:15:36.160 that would have been...

01:15:37.120 One of the things

01:15:37.740 I've learned

01:15:38.220 about learning

01:15:39.380 a new skill

01:15:40.100 like music

01:15:41.680 or art

01:15:43.020 is that people

01:15:44.440 who are the

01:15:45.880 most expert

01:15:46.880 at music and art,

01:15:48.660 those are different skills

01:15:49.980 from explaining things.

01:15:52.220 communication

01:15:54.160 and explaining things

01:15:55.700 is like a whole...

01:15:57.060 its own art

01:15:57.640 and music

01:15:59.120 is its own art.

01:16:00.340 It's hard to find

01:16:01.180 somebody who would be

01:16:01.920 as good musically

01:16:03.860 as they are

01:16:04.580 explaining.

01:16:06.900 So,

01:16:08.200 that's one of the barriers

01:16:09.300 to learning music.

01:16:10.520 My music teacher

01:16:11.620 was amazing,

01:16:12.600 by the way.

01:16:13.420 I'm taking a break

01:16:14.120 from lessons

01:16:14.720 just because I was busy.

01:16:16.920 But,

01:16:17.720 let me give you

01:16:19.680 an example

01:16:20.840 of what makes them great.

01:16:22.440 The hardest part

01:16:23.680 about learning music

01:16:24.720 is feeling

01:16:26.140 that you're failing

01:16:26.900 the whole time.

01:16:28.440 Like,

01:16:29.020 you're not creating

01:16:29.680 anything that's even

01:16:30.520 in the general

01:16:31.560 neighborhood

01:16:32.260 of music.

01:16:33.840 For a long,

01:16:35.300 long time,

01:16:36.640 you're producing

01:16:37.300 nothing of value.

01:16:38.920 It doesn't sound

01:16:39.820 good to you.

01:16:40.520 It doesn't sound

01:16:40.940 good to anybody.

01:16:41.440 So,

01:16:43.660 during that period,

01:16:44.760 the important thing

01:16:45.760 is that you stay

01:16:46.580 enthusiastic

01:16:47.260 and you enjoy it.

01:16:49.500 So,

01:16:50.080 my music teacher

01:16:51.540 who was also

01:16:52.340 a fitness trainer,

01:16:56.260 like,

01:16:56.520 he had all the skills

01:16:57.520 from,

01:16:58.200 you know,

01:16:58.420 the fitness training

01:16:59.280 and the music

01:17:00.660 that he would

01:17:01.960 basically make sure

01:17:03.080 that you felt

01:17:04.340 you had progress.

01:17:05.880 So,

01:17:06.420 I'd be doing

01:17:06.900 some crappy thing

01:17:07.760 on the drums

01:17:08.700 that even I didn't

01:17:09.520 think was good

01:17:10.120 and he would say,

01:17:11.440 something good about it.

01:17:12.780 It's like,

01:17:13.080 oh,

01:17:13.280 way better than yesterday

01:17:14.180 or,

01:17:15.060 oh,

01:17:15.320 yeah,

01:17:15.580 you've got the kick down.

01:17:17.520 I think the kick

01:17:18.100 was really good

01:17:18.660 on that one.

01:17:19.520 And I would think

01:17:20.160 to myself,

01:17:21.080 oh,

01:17:21.800 I thought it was terrible

01:17:23.200 but look at that.

01:17:25.000 Got that kick working.

01:17:26.580 And then I would feel good.

01:17:28.560 And then we would

01:17:30.220 play together.

01:17:31.260 You know,

01:17:31.460 when I got to the point

01:17:32.140 where I could keep a beat,

01:17:33.780 he would play the guitar

01:17:34.700 and he would just

01:17:36.440 riff to whatever beat

01:17:38.320 I wanted to put out.

01:17:39.880 So,

01:17:40.060 I'd be just,

01:17:40.680 you know,

01:17:40.900 knocking around

01:17:42.200 and putting on a beat.

01:17:43.740 He'd be listening

01:17:44.440 to my beat

01:17:45.060 and adding these,

01:17:46.100 like,

01:17:46.480 sick guitar licks

01:17:47.500 over it

01:17:47.980 and I'd be there like,

01:17:50.040 this actually sounds good.

01:17:51.800 Like,

01:17:52.040 I would actually

01:17:52.520 listen to this

01:17:53.280 but it wasn't

01:17:54.000 because of me.

01:17:55.920 Like,

01:17:56.500 the beat was,

01:17:57.340 you know,

01:17:57.600 pretty basic

01:17:58.260 but he was adding

01:17:59.560 cool things on top of it

01:18:00.760 and I was thinking,

01:18:01.400 I've made music.

01:18:02.700 Look at me.

01:18:03.500 I'm in a band.

01:18:04.440 I made music.

01:18:05.420 It felt amazing.

01:18:07.380 And then when he was done

01:18:08.660 he'd say,

01:18:09.080 that was the best

01:18:09.640 you've ever done.

01:18:11.060 You know,

01:18:11.380 you were keeping up.

01:18:12.700 I was just matching your beat.

01:18:14.880 And I'm like,

01:18:15.200 really?

01:18:15.900 Really?

01:18:16.760 I did that?

01:18:17.440 It didn't feel like

01:18:18.000 I was doing that.

01:18:19.100 But did I?

01:18:20.120 And then I'd feel all good

01:18:21.360 and I'd want to go

01:18:22.020 to the next lesson.

01:18:23.640 Now,

01:18:24.840 this

01:18:26.760 is also

01:18:28.320 the lesson

01:18:28.860 for fitness.

01:18:30.520 I'm going to drop you

01:18:31.600 one of the most

01:18:32.280 powerful reframes.

01:18:35.460 You may have seen it

01:18:36.620 in this book,

01:18:37.760 Reframe Your Brain

01:18:38.500 with lots of other reframes.

01:18:41.920 The best exercise

01:18:43.320 for you to do,

01:18:44.680 if you're new to exercise

01:18:46.100 and you're trying

01:18:46.660 to get into it

01:18:47.380 and you're saying,

01:18:48.800 gosh,

01:18:49.700 there are a million things

01:18:50.480 I could do.

01:18:51.100 What do I do?

01:18:52.000 Like,

01:18:52.160 what's the exercise

01:18:52.860 I should do

01:18:53.360 and what's the right way

01:18:54.480 to do it?

01:18:55.860 Should I take a lesson

01:18:56.880 to figure out

01:18:57.500 how to lift things

01:18:58.340 and use the bicycle

01:18:59.660 and stuff like that?

01:19:00.860 And here's the reframe

01:19:02.000 that fixes everything.

01:19:05.040 The correct exercise

01:19:06.720 every time,

01:19:09.040 the correct exercise

01:19:10.240 is the one

01:19:11.380 you're willing to do.

01:19:13.220 That's it.

01:19:14.980 The one you're willing

01:19:15.960 to do.

01:19:17.260 So the other day

01:19:18.080 I was lifting weights

01:19:19.700 on a live stream

01:19:20.680 and it was sort of

01:19:22.060 interacting with the audience

01:19:23.080 and lifting some weights

01:19:24.020 and just messing around

01:19:25.180 in my man cave.

01:19:26.760 And some people

01:19:27.460 commented that

01:19:28.280 it was bugging their OCD

01:19:30.580 because I wasn't

01:19:31.400 using good form

01:19:32.380 and I wasn't doing

01:19:34.020 the right number of them.

01:19:35.720 I was just sort of

01:19:36.380 doing it until I got tired.

01:19:39.060 And so some people said,

01:19:40.900 no, hey,

01:19:42.080 maybe fix that form,

01:19:44.760 maybe do sets of 10,

01:19:47.200 something like that.

01:19:47.780 I reject that,

01:19:49.380 absolutely.

01:19:50.840 I do, of course,

01:19:52.160 know the proper way

01:19:53.200 to do all of that stuff.

01:19:55.020 When I do it improperly,

01:19:56.720 it's because that's the only way

01:19:58.220 I'm willing to do it

01:19:59.220 on that day.

01:20:01.580 So I got to exercise

01:20:03.120 imperfectly,

01:20:04.620 but all I'm trying to do

01:20:06.300 is make it a habit.

01:20:08.140 That's it.

01:20:09.360 I'm not trying to lift

01:20:10.480 a certain amount

01:20:11.260 a certain way

01:20:11.980 a certain perfect way.

01:20:13.620 I'm trying to make

01:20:14.520 my brain know

01:20:15.580 that I exercise

01:20:17.160 basically every day

01:20:18.280 one way or the other.

01:20:20.220 And that's not negotiable.

01:20:22.820 The only thing

01:20:23.760 I accomplish

01:20:24.300 is that I do something.

01:20:26.560 And it has to be

01:20:27.200 what I was willing to do.

01:20:28.420 So last night,

01:20:29.740 it was maybe 8 o'clock,

01:20:32.680 and I realized

01:20:33.760 that I'd been so busy

01:20:34.840 I had not done any exercise.

01:20:37.680 And man,

01:20:38.580 did I want to go to bed instead.

01:20:40.560 I wanted,

01:20:41.340 I really didn't want to exercise.

01:20:43.600 But I was in my man cave,

01:20:45.320 and the weights

01:20:46.180 are right there.

01:20:47.600 So I picked up

01:20:48.540 the smallest weights

01:20:49.900 and sat in my chair,

01:20:51.700 and I watched,

01:20:52.320 you know,

01:20:52.660 watched some of the

01:20:53.480 Warriors game.

01:20:54.720 And I thought,

01:20:55.160 well, you know,

01:20:55.680 at least I could do this

01:20:56.780 and do this.

01:20:58.680 Because it was the only thing

01:20:59.700 I was willing to do.

01:21:01.160 I was absolutely not willing

01:21:02.540 to do more than that.

01:21:03.920 And then once I'd done,

01:21:05.340 you know,

01:21:05.580 seven and a half pounds

01:21:06.540 on each arm,

01:21:08.040 your arms start to wake up

01:21:09.320 a little bit,

01:21:10.260 and they get thirsty.

01:21:12.080 Do you ever have

01:21:12.440 thirsty muscles?

01:21:14.280 You start using them

01:21:15.280 a little bit,

01:21:15.800 and they want to do more,

01:21:17.120 right?

01:21:17.780 So I had accidentally

01:21:18.940 made my muscles thirsty.

01:21:20.960 They just needed

01:21:21.900 heavier weights.

01:21:23.240 It was bugging me

01:21:24.120 that they were too light.

01:21:25.600 So then I moved it up

01:21:26.760 a little bit.

01:21:27.780 Fifteens.

01:21:29.020 Did a little more,

01:21:29.860 did a little more.

01:21:30.900 I finally had something

01:21:32.340 like a weight training.

01:21:33.640 But if you were to rank it

01:21:35.920 from one to ten

01:21:37.060 about like how well done

01:21:38.460 it was

01:21:38.960 and how useful it was,

01:21:40.840 no more than a three.

01:21:43.200 I give it a three.

01:21:45.180 One hundred percent success.

01:21:47.380 If you think that wasn't

01:21:48.720 one hundred percent success,

01:21:50.180 then you're on

01:21:50.640 the wrong metric.

01:21:52.180 The metric was,

01:21:53.300 did I do it?

01:21:54.860 Yes, I did.

01:21:56.300 Yes, I did.

01:21:57.080 That's the only goal.

01:21:58.960 Because if you hang around

01:22:00.300 with people who exercise,

01:22:01.780 if you start caring about it,

01:22:03.180 if you start trying

01:22:04.020 some things,

01:22:05.080 you will very naturally,

01:22:06.720 without any effort at all,

01:22:08.520 learn the proper way

01:22:09.560 to do things.

01:22:10.600 You might someday

01:22:11.280 get a fitness trainer.

01:22:12.800 It's a good idea

01:22:13.440 for a lot of people.

01:22:14.740 But just being at the gym

01:22:15.940 and watching people,

01:22:17.140 you'll learn 80%

01:22:18.160 of what you need.

01:22:19.260 If you're unsure

01:22:20.580 about how a machine is used,

01:22:22.700 just watch somebody using it.

01:22:24.820 And if that doesn't work,

01:22:26.040 just stop somebody

01:22:26.700 and ask them,

01:22:27.180 hey, how do you do this one?

01:22:28.720 It's that easy.

01:22:30.260 You'll learn it over time.

01:22:32.240 So the worst mistake

01:22:33.220 you can make with fitness,

01:22:34.580 and I would say with diet too,

01:22:36.020 is to put a timer on it.

01:22:39.020 It's nice to say,

01:22:40.140 oh, I'd like to lose 80 pounds

01:22:41.500 and I'd like to do it

01:22:42.520 by a year or so.

01:22:43.800 But that shouldn't be

01:22:44.840 your main focus.

01:22:47.480 Your main focus

01:22:48.320 should be developing habits.

01:22:50.220 You should have

01:22:50.640 an exercise habit

01:22:51.680 that you can't even stop

01:22:53.300 if you wanted to.

01:22:54.480 You're going to do something,

01:22:55.680 even if you just

01:22:56.340 walk out the door,

01:22:58.060 and just keep walking.

01:23:00.140 You're going to do it.

01:23:01.700 And then fitness,

01:23:02.660 with diet,

01:23:04.400 you need some techniques

01:23:05.540 that I talk about

01:23:06.800 in some of my books.

01:23:09.040 But basically,

01:23:09.900 you need a system,

01:23:11.840 not just willpower.

01:23:13.220 I'll use my willpower

01:23:15.100 to avoid these bad foods.

01:23:16.660 That's not a system.

01:23:18.480 All right.

01:23:20.320 Enough about that.

01:23:21.420 I think I've changed

01:23:22.200 your lives enough for now.

01:23:25.400 YouTube,

01:23:25.960 I will see you tomorrow.

01:23:27.380 And I'm going to go talk

01:23:28.140 to the locals,

01:23:29.100 people a little extra.

01:23:30.500 And thanks for joining.

01:23:32.720 See you in the morning.

01:23:33.440 Good morning.

01:23:34.440 Thank you.

01:23:34.860 Bye.

01:23:35.120 Good morning.

01:23:36.240 Good morning.

01:23:36.780 Good morning.

01:23:37.020 Good morning.

01:23:37.120 Thank you.

01:23:37.700 Good afternoon.

01:23:38.040 Good afternoon.

01:23:38.600 Good morning.

01:23:40.760 Good morning.

01:23:40.840 Good morning.

01:23:41.620 Good morning.

01:23:42.440 Good night.

01:23:42.860 Good morning.

01:23:43.460 Good morning.

01:23:44.220 Good morning.

01:23:45.340 Good morning.

01:23:46.400 Good morning.

01:23:48.000 Good morning.

01:23:48.380 How'd you do this Extie

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - October 25, 2023

Episode 2272 Scott Adams： CWSA Odds Of War & A 2024 Election Prediction

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