Episode 2273 Scott Adams： CWSA 10⧸26⧸23
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 10 minutes
Words per Minute
150.36905
Summary
On today's episode of the pod, I discuss the recent revelation that the first King of Hawaii may have been black, and the reaction to the news. I also discuss the newest member of the squad in the House of Representatives, and whether or not this is a good or bad thing.
Transcript
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up up up good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of human civilization and it's not
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really hard to be the highlight these days because human civilization not doing so well
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but we're doing great here and if you'd like to take it up to a level that's almost impossible
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to imagine all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass a tanker chelsea stein a canteen jugger
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flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now
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for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine hit of the day thing that makes everything better it's
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called the simultaneous sip and it happens now go
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pretty good pretty good well i'm going to start with the most important stories of the day and
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then we'll work toward everything else most important story of the day the newest member
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of what they call the squad the progressives in in the house their newest member they made a big
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mistake they accepted a man so that the squad was sort of women and then they decided it was a big
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mistake they let a man in first thing the man does when he becomes a member of the squad
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he pulls a fire alarm in front of security cameras to possibly delay a government action
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i don't know what the rest of the squad is thinking about their newest member
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but i've got a feeling there's a lot of head slapping you know you could probably hear five slaps
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you know you'd hear like like five slaps in congress what were those i hear five slaps
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where's that coming from sorry squad you own him now
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all right uh yesterday a few of you already know from my man cave last night that
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i joined a spaces event an audio event on the x platform and if you're not familiar with it it's
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an audio thing where there are a number of people who are hosts and speakers
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and then you can volunteer to speak but mostly it's audience members it's just people who are
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you know they show up as being audience members and uh i joined one that was a bunch of people were
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really mad at hotep jesus it looked like it was uh mostly black americans who were angry at things
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hotep jesus had said on the joe rogan uh podcast i think the main topic was
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and i don't know what's true by the way i'm just going to tell you what they were arguing about
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it's the funniest thing i've ever seen in my life
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apparently hotep made and i hope i'm representing him correctly
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apparently hotep jesus uh made the claim on joe rogan that the early settlers or at least the royal
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family of hawaii prior to hawaii ever being part of the america situation that in his early days the
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and i said to myself what that can't be true and of course that's what the uh
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all of the people on the spaces were saying it was a number of black people were saying
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why are you why are you embarrassing us by making us look so bad
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that you would make crazy claims that black people were early settlers of the united states
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and that crazy crazy that the prior king some king of hawaii had been black that's pretty crazy
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so i get into those spaces and i'm just listening i'm not i'm not going to be participating
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and i think to myself well that does sound crazy that's pretty damn crazy so then i googled
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the name of the king that hotep mentioned i'm looking at the photo and i'm saying to myself and
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his entire family is there too so you see the whole royal family and i'm looking at it and i'm
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thinking okay definitely not hawaiian definitely not hawaiian looks black to me now i think there's
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some you know discussion about exactly what their ethnicity was but they do look you know if you
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were an american looking at their photos in 2023 you wouldn't imagine there were anything but black
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and and it's it's quite an eye-opener because maybe we don't know much about the migration of
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people and the origins of anything you know if there's anything we've learned is that we don't
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know anything about anything you know there's nothing that we know is true like take the big bang
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you know the big bang was basically a gospel my entire life and then this year it's like you know
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maybe not you know our new our new telescope is maybe not maybe not but and i wonder if some of the
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most basic things we think about you know the migration out of africa and who went where when and who
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settled what and you know was it was it the vikings or was it christopher columbus we might be wrong about
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all of that it if our understanding of history is as poor as our understanding of the moment we're
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alive you know with the greatest ability to know what's true and compare it to things we've ever had
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and we still don't know what's true imagine the history of today being written who gets to write
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the history of today because we don't agree at all what's happening right now we don't agree we don't
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agree at all what happened on january 6 2020 who gets to write that history so who says
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that the first settlers or maybe the royal family of hawaii was not at one time black
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the pictures would suggest that's true now again i'm not taking sides i don't know what's true
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my larger point is we just can be fooled by anything basically so who knows what's true it was just a
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fascinating discussion but that's not why i brought it up i brought it up because when the host noticed
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that i was an audience member they decided to call me out for being removed from the platform
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because i'm such a big racist and then they said just to prove that they were on the side of the good
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they wanted to make sure that they were you know showing that they were better than me they wanted
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to get rid of me for my supposed racist past but then just to make the point i guess a little stronger
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they announced that they would be getting rid of everybody white so if they saw any white profiles
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in the spaces which is a public event by its nature it's a public event they decided to get rid of all the
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white observers so the white audience members were deleted and this morning at least one of the
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participants saw me tweeting about it maybe his participant maybe not and wanted to embarrass me on x
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by showing exactly why i got canceled and quoted my actual quote what about that they said yeah gotcha
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to which i responded i'm paraphrasing um this is what i was talking about that black people can
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discriminate openly against white people with no there's no penalty at all so what they did to be
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on spaces but more importantly what they did to the other people who just happened to be white at the
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same time they discriminated against them directly they said it we're getting rid of you because
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you're white and we were only audience members we were not participants just audience members in a public
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event now that is exactly my point my point is they could have walked over and beaten the shit out of me
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and people wouldn't have blinked twice they'd be like i probably had it coming i'll bet you had it
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coming yeah we're in a weird place now but i love winning uh winning that hard it's like um the thing
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you're mocking me for is my point not yours all right now you're mocking me again that's my point
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okay now you're still mocking me that's my point you can't win harder than that and still lose
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all right well we've got a new speaker of the house mike johnson uh who i also like to lovingly call a
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fucking idiot oh my god this guy's a fucking idiot i'm sorry i can't even be objective about this at
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all has nothing to do with a republican or democrat or anything fucking idiot first
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all he's got a long history of being super anti-gay now i don't know if he's changed since the mid
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2000s but how in the world do you have a fucking anti-gay guy in 2023 who's the speaker of the house
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jesus christ are you kidding me now you know now maybe maybe he had some you know reawakening or
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something maybe he's not the same guy he was 10 years ago but man if you see some of his writing
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he is super anti-gay and not in a way that is compatible with our current times but more to the
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point i saw a video of him saying that he has a particular problem at home he has two teenage sons
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one of them is black and one of them is white and he says that he feels bad because he has to
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counsel his black teen that he will be more heavily discriminated against
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what what kind of terrible parenting is that in 2023 he's going to tell that he's going to tell
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his two sons that the black one is going to be discriminated against what country does he live in
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how about you take those two fucking kids give them identical uh educations identical skills and
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have them apply for the same fucking college you asshole you fucking asshole you're you're raising
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your kids wrong clearly but you're making the world a worse place by saying it in public no the black
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kid will get into the college with the same uh same qualifications way faster now have him go apply
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for a goddamn job you fucking asshole in 2023 black kid gets the job every fucking time
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every fucking time he is so unqualified to be even in congress much less the speaker
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i've never been more disappointed with anything completely disqualified piece of shit
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america in 2023 we don't need your backwards views about i mean he's he's like what 40 years he's like he's
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living 40 years in the past it's been at least 30 years that the black guy could get a job easier than
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the white guy in corporate america and i know that because i was in corporate america and lost two jobs
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for being white which i've talked about all the time he's only 40 years old so he hasn't learned a
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fucking thing in his entire life it looks like sorry didn't mean to swear so much
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uh let's talk about uh dumb kids um there's a shocking survey uh about k-12 and which kids were asked
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uh uh what what they knew about the uh number of jews killed in the holocaust and 63 percent of u.s
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kids oh actually not even kids jesus uh this is adults 18 to 39 63 percent of u.s people 18 to 39
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were unaware that six million jews were killed in the holocaust
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23 percent said the holocaust was a myth exaggerated or they weren't quite sure
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so you're telling me about a quarter of the people
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about 25 percent it was 23 but rounding you know yeah well that's consistent at least
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11 percent said jews caused the holocaust oh my god including 19 percent of respondents in new york
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what 19 percent of new yorkers thought jews caused the holocaust what am i reading that right
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probably and 48 percent could not name a single concentration camp or a ghetto from world war two
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who could who could name a ghetto can any of you name a jewish ghetto from world war two
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warsaw was called a jewish ghetto instead of just
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what okay well you guys are pretty well um educated here's my take number one
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how much do we know about any other ethnic group
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you know i don't think this level of um lack of knowledge
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is out of it's out of whack with our lack of knowledge of everything else
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it's more of a general lack of knowledge so here's a question i've told you this before i think
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um for years i've been asking young people the following question
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how many people do you think died in world war two counting military and civilians of all the
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nations involved and then people go i don't know i don't really know i will take your best guess
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you know based on your your sense of things you know your education what do you think i mean it was a world
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war give me a number i've had numbers as low as 10 000
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i've had people who are like people who will vote these are people who probably are voting
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by now and they said around 10 000 worldwide military and uh about 10 000
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i've had other people who will say six million because they they confuse the jewish uh deaths with
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the entire war if i had other people try to give me a big number they'll be like i it could be
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10 million yeah it's closer to 60 million you know i don't i don't know if we can get anywhere near the
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real number but you know it's in the neighborhood of 60 million if you didn't know that i see some
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higher estimates just to just to show you how how loose the estimates are but somewhere north of 50
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million and if you don't know that world war ii killed 50 million people would you be afraid of
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another one i wouldn't if i thought that world war ii only killed 10 10 000 people worldwide
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i wouldn't even think about world war iii wouldn't even be on my mind
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well so that's how dumb those kids are and then there's another study or report anyway managers are
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saying that the gen z-ers uh they're not getting any work done and they lack basic skills or basic
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social skills as well as basic skills now i was comparing the youth today to the youth in my day
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well these get off my lawn you youngsters who can't do things like we used to be able to do
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now of course i think old people always said young people weren't as good as they were that seems like
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universal and all through time so there's some of that but there's also something that i think is real
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about this which is when i look at my childhood i probably just just before i was 18 years old
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i probably held i don't know i probably did 10 different jobs that you would normally only
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have an adult do right because i did gardening and currently only adults are doing gardening where
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i live right i was mowing lawns and stuff i was doing farming you know i'm 12 years old and i'm doing
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farming my uncle's farm so i'm you know i'm uh throwing hay bales around and shoveling poop and
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helping with the milk and whatever i'm doing sapping you know collecting sap from maple trees
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uh i mean shoveling snow i mean just a lot of things that kids can do but typically adults would
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do them so by the by the time i got to college i'm doing about four jobs in college you know while
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i'm supporting myself at least supporting some of my expenses college was a lot cheaper back then
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so you didn't have to have as much uh as much uh investment in it and by the time i reached the
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real world workforce i had already held 15 adult jobs you know they were all little bits at a time
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but i'd worked at a resort in i don't know six different capacities i'd worked in the kitchen i'd done
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uh the front desk work i'd you know i'd wash dishes i'd been a server you know i'd done all
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these things and every one of them is a job that typically an adult is doing today and i thought
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that by the time i reached my first real job i was trained sort of like an adult i mean i just i was
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given responsibilities that by today's standards you sort of wouldn't give a kid and i don't remember
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blinking twice about it it was just normal so i do think that kids today are just simply not doing
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as many things they're most of the things they do are on a device but when as soon as they stand up
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and start walking around they're kind of just in their house or in their school or in a car and the
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number of things that they have to navigate or figure out is really really small like their their
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life is just shrunken to this little experience but our you know in in many of our days we were
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outdoors solving problems like physically moving and solving problems and of course the phones make
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everybody depressed partly because they don't move around all right so yeah that's probably a
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difference but the good news is that these kids dumb as they are they eventually grow up to be wise
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and useful members of society for example there are quite a number of people in our congress
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who are very pro-israel and are supporting the jews you know 100 percent and as do i
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and that's good because it means that they've grown up to take on you know serious issues and and be
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leaders and really leaders of the country in some ways even the world uh so what they believe just
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just to give you some details is that they believe israel should be protected and in part because it's part
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of uh their belief uh their belief in the rapture so that so this is not everybody in congress but many of
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the uh conservative christians believe that uh jesus will come back and he will raise up the dead so the dead
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christians and then he will take the living christians who believe in jesus and they will go up to heaven
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um everybody else will not go so in a sense um if i could just recap this just sort of the quick summary
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so the conservative christians believe that it's very important um in bible in a biblical predictive
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sense that they protect israel because apparently israel has to be there uh as part of the jesus coming back
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so the uh so the christians in congress and some of the conservative ones are very very pro-israel
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because it's in part not just an american interest you know geopolitically but it it supports their
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view that we should do everything we can to help the jewish people until uh jesus comes and slaughters
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them all in a more appropriate way so they're very much against uh all the death and bad things that have
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happened to the jews uh but they're very much up for uh jesus coming down and killing everybody who
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isn't a believer in christ did i get that right i'm not i'm not a religious scholar but i think i got that
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right no so i'm getting i'm getting different opinions on this well let's see which one is which part is wrong
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uh i'll just do the individual parts because i probably just got one part wrong so one part is
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the the christians who believe in the rapture the ones who believe in the rapture uh israel is important
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to the whole of the scheme right right and they're also very pro protecting the jewish people
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that's true very supportive of israel but they also believe that anybody who doesn't believe in jesus
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will will will perish in the rapture is that and will never be part of heaven will they go to hell
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so this is part i don't know will the people who are not part of the rapture do they go to hell
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i'm seeing yeses and nos some say yes on hell some say no
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all right well my understanding was that the conservative christians want to protect israel
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until jesus can come and slay everybody who's not a believer and doom them to eternal hell
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now i'm just asking if i have a right i'm not i'm not giving you an opinion of what's true
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i don't know what's true and what's not true i'm just asking you is that their belief i'm getting
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it's a different interpretation all right well i guess i'm not a religious scholar
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but the point is that our dumb kids grow up to be smart like that now not only that but some of them
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become mass shooters like this guy in maine so yesterday if you were watching the news and i wish you
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weren't uh some mass shooter guy it ran around and killed at least 16 last night they were saying 22 but
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it might be 16 and he took a rifle and went into at least a couple of places in maine and shot people
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up now they did fairly quickly get an identification very impressive work because as i said oh wow
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uh let's see i want to just show you this picture in case he's running around your neighborhood
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here you've got uh you can see the still picture he's looking directly at you and then you can see
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a completely different person that they've identified as being the same in the video
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so one of them had a nose job uh to lengthen his nose apparently before he did the shooting
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uh his his face shape was changed to something skinnier
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um but uh he's a person of interest now as i was watching the news last night
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i i i saw that they had so-called identified him and he even had his name and then they compared him to
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the video that i was looking at and i said to myself that's not the same guy
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there's no way that's the same guy now i understand it's a different angle
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but that didn't change the shape of his face so i was listening to the news and the news said he's
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a person of interest and he wanted to make really sure that he was a person of interest
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and not a suspect do you notice the difference between a suspect and a person of interest
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i don't either but i think it's you call him a suspect if you're sure of the identity and you're
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sure of the crime you're still not saying he's guilty be like well this is the guy he's on video
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and he's here so suspect i think you say person of interest when you're not so sure about your
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identification now it turns out they can't find him but the the guy who they think did the shooting
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was a weapons expert of course he was a apparently a some kind of firearms trainer so he had military
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experience and he was a firearms trainer worst situation ever and apparently brutally evilly
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how often do you think this happens where the the person they think it is doesn't match the video
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i'm gonna tell you a story about my from my own experience when i was a bank teller at the age of
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22 ish i guess i was robbed a few times at at gunpoint one of the people who robbed me at gunpoint
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um looked like this guy he had some facial hair he looked like about that height and build brown hair
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kind of looked like that guy but when the fbi came in and said all right now describe the guy who robbed
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you i described a guy who looked well like the guy in the picture like a different guy in fact the one
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i saw it looked 30 years older i had gray hair and not much of it a little beard stubble but not a beard
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and uh different clothing i described a guy who in no way matched the person on video who actually robbed
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me the way i found that out is the fbi visited me a second time which is never good to find out if i
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i think you know in retrospect they never said that but in retrospect they said um can you describe that
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guy again and i would describe him and then they said um could you come with us and i thought what
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yeah we'd like to show you something at our office what so they take me to the office and and they've got
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this uh machine where they can replay the video from the uh the video cameras of the robbery and so it
00:28:07.860
had a it had a manual crank on it i remember so they could really slow it down frame by frame and
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they started cranking it and they go is this the guy who robbed you and they show a guy who looks very
00:28:18.980
much like the guy in the video so he looked like a young clint eastwood with a sport jacket
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i had described a 60 year old guy with some stubble and like a long coat different color everything
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so they so they so i see this guy looking like clint eastwood walking through the bank and they go
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is this is this is this the guy who robbed you i'm like no not even close and they go watch this and
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they go slowly and they crank it and i watch the guy walk up to my thing
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pull a gun on me and watch me handing him over my cash and i'm watching it i'm like what
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and and you know when somebody put aims a gun at you i don't know how many times people have
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aimed guns at you i'm up to three i've been under the gun three times in my life all in san francisco
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um but you see you remember indeed the second time i got robbed i also ended up going to a police lineup
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and as soon as i saw the lineup i was like oh yeah him like easy to remember and that guy put the gun
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right in my face like the second guy that i easily identified looked exactly like i remembered him he
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literally had a gun in my nose i was looking down the barrel of it while while i gave him the money
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and so one of them i remember perfectly but it gets weirder here's the weird part remember how i said
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the first one i described completely differently than the video separately the fbi and interviewed
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my manager and i think one other person who also had a good look at the guy because you know what
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my manager actually followed him out of the bank once you realized what happened
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he's got a good look at him my manager described him the same way i did
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that's right two people independently described him as a completely different person
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and we both had a good look and but when they told me uh i was wrong and i come back to the bank
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where they had the most wanted pictures of known bank robbers and and one of them was the picture of
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the guy who robbed me and i'd looked at that picture a million times and never made the connection it was
00:30:54.580
that guy so i guess he liked robbing robbing banks anyway so i don't know what's going on but one
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possibility is that the real shooter uh killed the firearms guy and took his car and maybe his guns
00:31:10.740
and that possibly the real shooter is not this firearms guy but that firearms guy might be dead
00:31:18.420
so that's just a possibility given that we don't really know what's going on it's fog of war
00:31:23.540
anything's possible i wouldn't i wouldn't make a big bet on that for that uh hypothesis
00:31:31.060
but he just doesn't look like the picture to me or the video all right so for about 10 minutes that
00:31:38.980
story took israel off the headlines and i said to myself huh how long is israel not going to be the
00:31:47.300
main story and by morning you know they were already equals and by this afternoon we'll only
00:31:54.260
be talking about israel i assume well trump went in for another gag order i get confused about all of
00:32:00.820
his legal jeopardies but i guess there's a second gag order the first ones was stayed or it's been
00:32:07.220
suspended temporarily but he got fined ten thousand dollars for saying something about
00:32:13.540
an officer of the court but maybe maybe he was talking about with somebody else that's a little
00:32:18.020
unclear he got mad and he stormed out and blah blah blah now did i see a story that the aclu is backing
00:32:26.740
trump to get the gag order taken away i feel like i saw a headline on that but i didn't see the story
00:32:34.580
itself yeah i'm getting yeses so that would be an example of the aclu finally doing something i agreed
00:32:42.180
with i appreciate that uh but i don't think there's any question anymore that the biden administration
00:32:48.740
is a weaponized weaponized government and that the um the process is rigged you know the the 2024
00:32:57.860
election is already rigged they're doing it right in front of you because the this law fair stuff seems so
00:33:04.580
obviously designed to stop him politically and not based on the political or not based on a uh let's
00:33:11.940
say a justice philosophy so justice is not driving their actions it's just politics so that is rigging
00:33:20.020
the election you don't have to wonder if it if it's being rigged they're doing it right in front of you
00:33:25.940
so if anybody ever asks again oh scott do you think somebody rigged the election i'm going to say
00:33:31.620
well i don't know let me examine your question do you believe that rigging the election applies
00:33:37.460
narrowly to only the the counting of the votes are you that dumb if you think of it as anything the
00:33:46.660
government does to fix the outcome well this weaponization of the government uh department of
00:33:54.820
justice is just rigging an election but they're doing it right in front of you and it's completely legal
00:34:00.500
but there's no doubt about it they're rigging the election right in front of you or trying we'll
00:34:07.460
see if they succeed all right uh the u.s economy um against all odds grew what they call a staggering
00:34:17.700
4.9 percent in the third quarter i'm trying to remember in my entire life maybe it happened when i was
00:34:25.780
little have what was the last time we had a 4.9 percent growth in the economy when we weren't
00:34:32.740
coming off a recession or something never do you believe it's not true
00:34:42.740
hmm oh maybe it's just because inflation's up oh that's why it's just inflation's up all right okay got
00:34:50.500
it everybody raised their prices yeah it's bullshit okay but what is true apparently is that we did
00:34:57.460
not go into a recession would you agree with that does it look like recession didn't happen yeah so
00:35:06.580
i'm going to take credit for uh another prediction that was counter to the experts will will you give
00:35:13.460
me that one if you've been watching for a while i was one of the few people who said i don't think there
00:35:18.340
is going to be a recession and almost all the experts said oh yeah definitely definitely
00:35:23.780
recession so i'm going to take that one as a victory because i got that one all right as jesse
00:35:32.580
waters and other people are reporting jesse does a great job on these complicated stories i always
00:35:38.740
recommend jesse waters for the cleanest clearest um summaries of the most complicated stuff he's great
00:35:47.220
at that um so chuck grassley has some information that 40 fbi informants had been spying on the biden
00:36:02.820
40 different informants apparently many of them had information that would have been actionable this
00:36:08.340
these these are the claims um but uh in each case they were blocked or nothing happened and that that
00:36:17.380
blocking continues today um and that uh and that the fbi basically was
00:36:30.020
trying to trying to get trump when they made up the dossier stuff
00:36:33.380
and tried to protect biden for 15 years which would suggest that the fbi is sort of rogue if not
00:36:42.100
just controlled by democrats now what's fascinating is i mentioned the other day the uh oliver stone uh
00:36:49.540
updated jfk updated uh documentary that's out now and it's fascinating and in that uh he alleges
00:36:59.540
that jfk believes that the fbi was running like its own you know not his employees it was like running
00:37:06.260
his own empire under hoover which i think historic
00:37:15.860
hearing something outside that shouldn't be outside um so historically oh it's the garbage truck
00:37:22.500
um and apparently uh multiple field offices uh blocked every effort to go after the bidens
00:37:32.980
and the allegation is that the fbi has known for 15 years that the binders were crooked
00:37:40.980
um but they might have been using it to blackmail the binders so it's possible that and that's just
00:37:49.300
an allegation it's possible that the fbi or whoever's run or whoever is controlling the fbi no matter who
00:37:57.140
the boss is is using the fbi to blackmail leaders and that we don't even have anything like a nothing
00:38:06.180
like a republic or anything like that it's basically uh just sort of a blackmail rico criminal situation
00:38:13.860
and has been for decades you know maybe since kennedy
00:38:21.140
now the reason that i can say such a thing in public without any risk
00:38:27.460
because if it were true you'd expect the people you know in charge to have to kill me or something
00:38:33.300
the reason i can say it is nobody believes it it's such a big it's such a big claim that your head
00:38:40.260
can't even hold it it's like wait what did you say the government of the united states has been a
00:38:46.100
basically a criminal enterprise you know using the fbi and probably the cia as enforcers or maybe
00:38:52.740
they were even their own domains doing their own thing who knows but it's something like that yes
00:38:58.580
that's what i'm saying and that there's ample evidence in fact more than ample it's beyond ample
00:39:04.980
it's to the point of obvious and your brain still can't handle it well but they're still collecting
00:39:12.180
taxes and building roads you're like yeah yeah i mean it's kind of working i didn't say it didn't
00:39:19.860
work i'm just saying it's nothing like you thought it was you know we don't have any representative
00:39:25.300
of government or anything like that it's pretty much just a criminal enterprise all right um
00:39:32.580
let's see so uh the big the big worry here is if these claims these allegations are true
00:39:45.220
it would suggest that there isn't any way that trump could win the next election because he would be seen
00:39:51.780
as a existential threat to the entire criminal web of organizations from the fbi to god knows what
00:39:59.140
so that would suggest that there's a jfk situation building up here with not necessarily an
00:40:06.900
assassination but it could be the law fair it could be something to just take trump out trump has let
00:40:15.140
me just say one thing about trump you know i'm still backing ramaswamy i think we need to go younger but
00:40:22.660
he is brave he's legitimately brave i wasn't sure that that was you know just part of his act but the
00:40:34.100
more you see of him the more it it looks true he looks like he's risking his life to see if he can
00:40:41.780
clean things up and he knows it he would have to know he's risking his life uh you know after after he killed
00:40:51.060
uh uh uh sulamani the iranian terrorist guy and i assumed that would just open up the the ability for
00:41:00.340
iran to assassinate him back but they wisely chose not to yeah i don't think they could have taken that
00:41:07.860
hit but uh the the balls on that guy like he just kills this guy he just orders him killed and then
00:41:21.540
i'm trying to like wrap my head around how difficult it would be
00:41:26.260
to be in his situation where he's being threatened with jail every day
00:41:31.220
he's got like tons of people who want to take him out for every reason you could imagine
00:41:36.100
he has every reason to retire and not put up with any of this stuff
00:41:39.300
and he just can't do it he's he's drawn to the fight so well all right uh israel uh had what they
00:41:50.100
call their biggest raid yet on gaza but nobody nobody on the israeli side was injured so it was
00:41:58.340
mostly just tanks nobody got into the tanks they drove around for a while and did whatever they needed
00:42:04.180
to do or accomplished whatever they needed to do and came back um i would assume that in this kind of
00:42:10.900
operation there are a whole bunch of probes before there would be some kind of a larger attack so i would
00:42:17.940
put this in the probe category not the raid category um now the uh the talk is a is about the question of
00:42:31.220
whether they should go in quickly or going slowly i would like to as i have before question the military
00:42:38.020
experts who say that the longer you wait the harder it's going to be because they'll have time to prepare
00:42:45.060
um i'm not sure that's true because both sides have time to prepare but if both sides prepared equally
00:42:53.220
wouldn't israel have an advantage because i think you know having everybody trapped in a kill zone
00:42:59.380
and preparing is very much better than being in the kill zone and being prepared to kill preparing to
00:43:07.380
be killed you know while trying to take as many people as you can so it seems to me that time is more
00:43:14.900
on israel's side militarily strategically tactically than maybe the experts are saying however public opinion
00:43:23.860
in israel and elsewhere among supporters definitely wants it to happen fast now if you're in israel you
00:43:31.860
want it to happen fast because your your blood is boiling and you'd feel the same way you just you
00:43:36.900
just want blood you you need to get rid of the risk you don't want ever even once to think that your
00:43:44.020
children would be subject to that kind of risk ever again so you'd want to smash it you'd want to do it
00:43:49.460
fast you'd want to do it complete and you wouldn't care about much else that would be a normal a normal
00:43:56.580
opinion and you can see why they have it now allegedly and i think this is questionable but allegedly
00:44:05.540
the united states has asked israel to hold back a little while until we can get some missile defense
00:44:13.140
and maybe some missiles and other assets into the area and they say the intention of that is to keep
00:44:20.820
the other players mostly iran and hezbollah from and maybe syria and who knows who else from uh
00:44:28.580
getting active and joining the fight it would be a way to suppress them maybe yeah turkey etc now
00:44:36.660
maybe but you shouldn't believe anything in the context of war so i don't know about that it seems to
00:44:42.900
me just as likely that israel wanted to delay because they weren't quite ready now here's here's the
00:44:52.580
dance that israel has to make if they go too soon and they just you know brutalize the entire area the
00:45:01.380
civilian deaths will probably be too high or at the very least their enemies can frame it as too high
00:45:09.460
whatever too high is one is too high i suppose and so if they go in soon they've got to worry about
00:45:19.540
creating something that will look like genocide because their enemies will call it genocide no
00:45:24.260
matter what it is no matter how um respectfully they treat the locals who are not combatants no matter
00:45:32.020
how much um casualties um casualties they take themselves to avoid civilian casualties it's not
00:45:39.700
going to matter to their enemies they're still going to call it a genocide so at the very least they
00:45:45.460
want to have the facts on their side right to not create something that a reasonable person would call
00:45:50.580
a genocide if they wait too long then they might you know lose some morale and you know maybe the other the
00:45:58.980
other teams leaders could escape and you know there could be other bad things from waiting while they
00:46:03.700
get ready which is a good thing but my take is that the ideal way to go in is slow but right
00:46:15.300
so i think slower is actually to their advantage and while nobody in israel wants to go slow
00:46:22.020
not the military not the public i think it's good for them because let me be let me be direct
00:46:31.620
all right i'm i'm 100 backing israel and you know i'm not doing any moral equivalent
00:46:39.300
bullshit all right there was a horrible attack they need to go take care of it it is their business
00:46:46.020
for the most part i mean we'll get dragged in but they're going to do what they're going to do
00:46:50.900
that said let me say directly nobody in israel is thinking straight
00:46:56.900
i'm just to say it directly nobody in israel is capable of making a clear-headed decision
00:47:02.580
do you know why because they're normal they're normal thinking people who in the world could make an
00:47:12.260
objective smart you know long-term decision in this context oh the really smart leaders can no they
00:47:21.700
can't oh the people who are professionals and know how to do this stuff you know they won't be so
00:47:26.740
emotional yes they will yes they will it's their children too absolutely they'll be so don't even
00:47:35.380
pretend that israel because of the trauma that they've just suffered could make anything like
00:47:42.980
good long-term decisions i just don't think they're capable you know as capable as they are in general
00:47:49.460
nobody can be in this situation nobody nobody no matter how smart you are no matter how well meaning
00:47:56.660
you are no matter your intentions you can't put anybody in that situation and expect them to act
00:48:02.100
like a normal person it's just not a thing now i've had a number of conversations with people were there
00:48:10.820
and uh who live there and i can tell you that their thinking uh does not include the risk of world war
00:48:19.220
three at least i haven't determined it now definitely they think about it it's one it's in the conversation
00:48:25.860
right but in terms of the odds of it i think they're discounting it to zero they do i i do think that
00:48:34.020
they expect you know a high chance that iran and hezbollah and therefore lebanon will be part of the the
00:48:40.340
battle there's a good chance that's going to happen but um i think that the thinking is that it's a
00:48:48.500
localized thing now from an american perspective the thing that i would worry about you know protecting the
00:48:55.220
families in the homeland here is that iran would be uh so threatened by military action and let's
00:49:03.060
say that the hot hot war begins that they would um maybe activate whatever cells they have in america
00:49:12.100
and that you saw that one person with some firearms um may have injured i don't know 50 to 80 people
00:49:20.420
may have killed 16 and he's not done he's still on the loose that's one person you saw what i don't
00:49:26.900
know 1500 fighters from hamas could do they took a country to its knees 1500 people so how many people
00:49:36.660
would it take in america to take down major infrastructure the answer is alarmingly few alarmingly
00:49:45.780
few it's really just the case of whether iran says go do it if they have agents here and they're trained
00:49:53.940
and iran says go do it it's going to get pretty ugly here in the united states now if i were making
00:50:01.860
the decision as a robot how would i do it all right here's how a robot would do it but nobody's a robot
00:50:10.180
so this is just as contrast if our robot i would say all right odds of um odds of winning the war
00:50:18.500
against hamas if we go in hard against uh gaza probably close to 100 would you agree the the amount
00:50:28.900
of casualties in the civilian group is a huge variable and the most important part in my opinion
00:50:34.740
in the short term uh but they could definitely get the job done and i would also say in other words
00:50:40.180
killing the the armed hamas people and their leaders um and that that has to be done now i'd also like to
00:50:48.660
say that every scenario has the hamas leadership just wiped out and and their soldiers so there's
00:50:57.540
i don't think anybody's in favor of anything that doesn't get that done whether it's slowly or quickly
00:51:03.300
that's going to get done that that decision's made and done and there's nothing left to talk about
00:51:14.260
if our robot i say to myself all right 100 hamas is destroyed and then i'd put some percentage of
00:51:22.340
likelihood that these civilian casualties are horrific
00:51:26.340
and then i put some percentage that they were you know kept down to a lower level if they go in
00:51:34.340
slowly i'm going to guess fewer civilian casualties because they'll have time to maybe filter some good
00:51:40.180
people out you know the civilians um maybe but then i would say all right now calculate the risk of a
00:51:49.060
more global or let's say regional war and say all right odds of a regional war
00:51:54.980
if israel goes in hard uh 50 50 50 because the u.s military is sitting there ready to attack
00:52:05.700
both lebanon and iran i assume uh or at least back up israel in those attacks
00:52:11.620
and i think hezbollah has like 200 000 missiles aimed at israel 200 000
00:52:20.740
in order to take out 200 000 missiles you're talking a really major action i would assume
00:52:28.580
that wouldn't be fast either and those missiles are going to be firing in the meantime so it's going
00:52:34.020
to get pretty ugly so i'd say all right the odds of that
00:52:37.060
would you say 50 well give me your odds you tell me let's say israel goes in hard and whether it's
00:52:45.620
true or not the enemies say oh you've killed too many civilians of course one would be too many
00:52:52.820
what do you think of the odds of let of lebanon and hezbollah attacking israel with something
00:52:59.780
closer to full force what do you think i'm i'll just read out your numbers 30 100 yes 100
00:53:07.700
100 is the wrong number 75 90 25 50 all right so i'm a robot so i would talk to a bunch of people
00:53:16.660
and i'd pull them because actually if you took the average of people's opinions it probably wouldn't be
00:53:23.780
too terrible in terms of an estimate of it happening because humans are humans so if you tell
00:53:29.700
all the humans what's the situation you know a whole bunch of humans if you take their average
00:53:35.060
probably pretty close to what will happen yeah that's my hypothesis anyway so if i'm a robot
00:53:40.980
i say all right talk to all the people they say anywhere from you know 90 to 30 percent so i'll
00:53:46.020
pick a midpoint 50 percent i'll lower it a little 40 percent 40 chance that turns into major iran hezbollah
00:53:54.980
action us is in you know russia wonders what to do that sort of thing so would you take a 40 chance of that
00:54:03.780
but remember that's not all bad because it could be that that's the 40 percent you want to happen
00:54:11.380
if you're israel because you might say at this point you know what we always knew we'd have to fight
00:54:16.420
we always knew it this is the best time to do it because we have at least the cover of this horrific uh
00:54:24.340
terrorist act to give us cover to do the things that we knew we had to do we knew we've we've known
00:54:31.060
forever that it's going to be military and the hezbollah is not going to aim 200 000 rockets at us
00:54:39.300
and we're just going to let it grow right war is coming no matter what there's no better time to do
00:54:45.860
it but then i'd say so so so far everything's positive for israel right it's positive if they
00:54:54.500
get rid of hamas and it's positive if it sparks a larger war which they can now use um take the
00:55:02.900
opportunity to eliminate those risks or reduce them as much as possible so they might actually
00:55:08.900
be thinking you know what can't think of a better outcome than having the entire you know having the
00:55:15.540
u.s navy right off the beach at the same time we need to do something with hezbollah and maybe the
00:55:21.380
leadership of iran so but then the next question is could that lead to russia getting involved
00:55:28.340
uh or a nuclear exchange somewhere if if hezbollah's missiles are better than we think
00:55:37.620
and iran also launches and maybe somebody else joins in at the same time
00:55:44.020
going to destroy israel i mean could israel be one month away from not existing
00:55:50.900
that's not impossible is it and then if if it looked like it was going to be that bad
00:56:02.740
because if they did they would be the you know pariah forever
00:56:06.900
on the other hand it might be the only thing to save their country
00:56:10.580
what would they do if they thought it was the only thing they could do
00:56:14.100
i don't know honestly i don't have a guess i don't know if they take the hit
00:56:18.580
as brutal as it would be or would they say you know what we're we're just going to end this right
00:56:24.660
now i have no idea but it's not zero would you agree the the odds of this sparking something nuclear
00:56:33.140
either something with russia or israel just you know ends up not doing as well as they hoped and it's
00:56:40.820
just the only thing they have left what's the odds of that what are the odds of it going nuclear
00:56:46.740
and or more than regional and becoming global because nuclear might get that done
00:56:53.700
your estimates are 0 50 25 15 i think the odds of nuclear are going to be below
00:57:00.740
well below 20 20 but above 1 would be my guess let's put it at 10 all right if there's a 10 chance
00:57:17.700
that what is israel is doing would create a nuclear confrontation somewhere and or a world war
00:57:24.500
what would the robot say about doing it meaning going in uh into gaza well the robot might say you
00:57:35.860
know what would be better just take your uh losses of a thousand people every 10 years
00:57:42.900
from from terrorism because it's never going to stop and you know try to contain it because the
00:57:50.420
alternative is uh if you do an expected value calculation you would multiply the number of
00:57:56.180
people who could die in a nuclear attack times the odds it would happen so if you thought there
00:58:01.860
was a 10 chance that 10 million people would die you would value that as a million people
00:58:25.380
so that's so if you're if you're a robot you'd say do whatever you can to avoid a 10 chance of a
00:58:31.700
nuclear confrontation but if you were a country whose children had just been uh killed in front of their
00:58:38.580
parents fuck it honestly that's what you would say if you were in their position that's what
00:58:46.900
you'd say yeah this might lead to a world war but it's a small chance and there's no way they're
00:58:53.700
getting away with this no way so there is a slight a slight difference of interests here maybe not a big
00:59:04.340
one but there's a slight one which is that what is best for israel in terms of not only their mental
00:59:11.300
health but their future security is to go hard and completely eliminate the enemy
00:59:18.020
maybe as soon as possible even at the risk of civilian deaths that are shocking
00:59:25.140
so that would make sense if you were there and you had gone through that if you're a robot
00:59:30.660
maybe you'd have a different opinion but the robots are not in charge so it's irrelevant
00:59:34.980
uh there's no need to go in just keep the water off you know i don't know enough about a sieges
00:59:45.060
to know why that won't work if you just kept you know there may be an aquifer or something they can
00:59:51.300
get to i would i would think food would be the bigger one but what would happen if you just waited
00:59:56.180
so for reasons that are are very human people are going to be way more worried about the 200 and
01:00:07.620
whatever hostages than they are about the 200 people who probably died today in bombing would you
01:00:14.740
agree that for some reason hostages grab our grab our brains in the way that a thousand people are
01:00:23.060
dying a day that we don't see their names and they're just in the rubble like somehow it doesn't
01:00:28.820
put your brain on fire the same way it should it should but it doesn't
01:00:36.500
um so here's what i think i think those hostages have no chance of living if israel goes in fast
01:00:46.020
maybe you know a small chance but a very bad chance if if Hamas thinks that they have any
01:00:52.980
chance at all of stalling for a vantage or negotiating something away they could easily
01:01:00.740
give us back some hostages and in my opinion that would be worth the wait one of the offers i saw that
01:01:07.940
was hilarious was that we would trade all of those hostages that Hamas has for every one of israel's
01:01:15.460
hostages which are far more the trick would be they have the hostages released would be released in gaza
01:01:30.740
now what's interesting is they might say yes to that
01:01:34.340
if you were Hamas you might say wait you're going to release them but they're going to come here
01:01:38.580
in the siege well we're here in the siege yeah bring them they'll help us fight they might actually
01:01:50.660
so who knows so my guess is that uh israel will continue to say we want to go now but america is
01:01:58.180
holding us back but maybe everybody wants to hold back and maybe that's a convenient
01:02:05.060
story so you have a reason for holding back so your your citizens don't get angry at you or lose hope
01:02:14.580
all right uh president xi of china apparently you you might be aware there was a huge collapse in
01:02:21.140
their real estate market a lot of things got built and financed that nobody wanted to live in
01:02:28.180
they were unnecessary uh but now she is looking to blame the bankers so he's going after the
01:02:34.020
executives of the banks which is bad if you're a chinese executive and the government decides to go
01:02:41.220
after you that doesn't work out well for you so china's got trouble both in banking and real estate
01:02:49.700
and it makes me wonder um i do wonder about xi and corruption it seems to me that the big thing
01:02:59.860
that america does better than a lot of other countries is we police our corruption a little
01:03:06.500
bit better we still have too much but you can you can generally count on doing a deal with an american
01:03:13.380
business and something like exactly what you agreed to will happen most of the time right i'm not sure
01:03:20.260
that's true in china you know maybe in china it's just all bribery everywhere and i don't know how bad
01:03:25.860
it is but it's interesting to see xi going after corruption at the highest levels in banking and real
01:03:32.500
estate so it does make you wonder um i mean part of me thinks that he that he just wants to turn the
01:03:40.260
corruption to his benefit and he's only mad because he wasn't getting anything it wasn't helping him
01:03:46.340
so it's not really about making the country better it's like well i wasn't getting a share so this
01:03:51.860
doesn't work i don't know we'll keep an eye on it so peter isan um had the most uh absurdly non-believable
01:04:02.340
story that goes like this that the chinese spy balloons was not at all what you thought it was
01:04:09.060
and that it wasn't president xi even being aware of it how does he know that i don't know um but that
01:04:17.700
the well the story goes like this the reason we didn't shoot them down is that we put our own assets
01:04:26.100
flying assets above them and below them and sucked all of their um digital secrets out of the balloon
01:04:34.180
so the balloon got nothing because our missile silos were closed and you know we of course protect
01:04:42.180
against this stuff all right i'm not saying any of this is true i'll just tell you what he said
01:04:49.460
yeah we'll get to the part where i don't believe any of it all right so we'll get to that part
01:04:54.580
and so the story was that we're so good at hacking things we hacked their balloon we figured out what
01:05:03.860
city the signals were coming from and wait it gets better according to peter uh we figured out what
01:05:10.340
floor was coming from and we figured out the computer it was coming from and that allowed them to piece
01:05:17.540
together the entire network of who was involved with the spy balloon and somehow they determined sure
01:05:25.380
that uh that china's uh intelligence services had done this as a rogue thing that even she didn't know
01:05:32.980
about do you believe that does any of that sound true
01:05:39.460
now uh peter zan is often accused by people of having some kind of cia connection i don't know
01:05:48.500
anything about that i just know it's funny because he says things that are so perfectly aligned with
01:05:55.460
what you would expect the cia would want you to hear and it's like could it be a coincidence could be
01:06:02.340
a coincidence i mean it might be could be just total coincidence but when i see somebody say
01:06:08.420
that president she doesn't know what his intelligence agencies are doing and the intelligence agencies
01:06:13.700
have embarrassed him greatly on the world stage that looks like exactly what the cia would want
01:06:21.140
china to hear so that they would have internal fighting and not trust each other now how would peter zan
01:06:29.700
know all this stuff but literally none of it none of it sounds credible at all
01:06:37.540
so there's that peter zan also said that the american cyber skills are just way way better than the
01:06:47.860
other countries not even close and that our people have already penetrated all the major systems of our
01:06:54.660
of our foes and if they attacked us our cyber guys would just turn off their entire
01:07:07.220
sure you know what else i used to think was true i used to think that russia were so good at hacking
01:07:14.660
that they'd be hacking all of ukraine systems and ukraine would be helpless because all that hacking would
01:07:20.180
take them down have you heard any stories of ukraine having problems with hacking
01:07:25.300
i feel like maybe hackers are overrated now it could be that only american hackers are good maybe
01:07:37.540
but remember when uh we're talking about russia hacked the dnc emails and that we knew exactly who it was
01:07:45.460
i never believed any of that none of that sounded true no i don't believe that they could figure out
01:07:53.780
who did it what kind of hacker would be you know getting into this sort of thing like an official
01:08:00.340
government hacker and couldn't couldn't cover their trails what kind of hacking is that
01:08:05.460
yeah that sounds like maybe maybe america did it never know you never know what's true these days
01:08:14.500
so i don't believe that our cyber people are already in all of the systems of our foes and can turn off
01:08:20.820
their lights i don't know that doesn't sound true that sounds like something the cia would want other
01:08:27.940
countries to think doesn't it doesn't that sound exactly exactly what you'd want the other countries to
01:08:34.660
think especially if you're looking to you know go to war hey iran i don't know i just thought i'd
01:08:42.500
mentioned our hackers are so good we could turn off your whole country anytime we want just thought you
01:08:49.220
should know it's a good time to tell you well i don't think any of that's true frankly
01:08:53.620
um the ceo of x uh what's her name linda yaccarino actually said in public that they expect x to turn a
01:09:12.900
that would that would be the most impressive thing i've ever seen in business like i'm skeptical
01:09:21.540
so i so i'm gonna yeah i'm gonna be skeptical about it but wow imagine if it really happened
01:09:31.300
i would be so fucking impressed because it it looked like there was no hope that twitter would
01:09:37.860
ever be profitable it didn't look like there's anything you could do then so how in the world
01:09:44.020
did he do that i mean it's just subscriptions i i don't know i guess i'm skeptical that they can
01:09:51.700
really be profitable in 2024 but you know even if it's 2025 it would be kind of amazing all right
01:10:00.180
we'll see we'll keep our eye out for that all right ladies and gentlemen
01:10:08.420
that concludes the best live stream you'll see this morning
01:10:14.260
i'm gonna say goodbye to the uh folks here on youtube
01:10:22.020
i bet that you didn't use struggle session what's that i'm looking at some of your comments right now
01:10:31.140
cash flow positive well that's a good question are they profitable or are they cash flow positive
01:10:39.940
all right um bye for now and i'll talk to you tomorrow