Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2292 Scott Adams： CWSA 11⧸14⧸23, Feels Like Something Big Is Brewing Today, But What？

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of human civilization.

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00:00:40.100 It's the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes everything better.

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00:00:46.140 It happens now.

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00:00:52.980 It has been sippulated.

00:00:56.320 Well, I have a feeling something big is about to happen.

00:01:04.760 Does anybody else feel it?

00:01:07.060 Do you know how you just sort of feel something's brewing?

00:01:10.060 The last time I said that was right before October 7th, some of you might remember.

00:01:16.120 I just, like, felt like some big thing was brewing.

00:01:19.240 But I'm having that same feeling again.

00:01:22.160 It doesn't mean it's bad.

00:01:25.820 Oh, I'm not going to say it's bad.

00:01:27.360 It could be a new invention, you know, a breakthrough.

00:01:31.600 It could be a peace deal.

00:01:33.300 It could be anything.

00:01:35.040 I feel like something big is about to happen.

00:01:37.960 We'll talk about that.

00:01:39.080 So, condolences to the Trump family, because Donald Trump's oldest sister, Mary Ann, has passed away at age 86.

00:01:47.760 I guess she was a judge for many years.

00:01:49.740 Didn't hear about her much.

00:01:50.960 And I had her a little confused with Mary Trump, who was the niece.

00:01:56.160 But he had a sister who was Mary Ann.

00:01:59.040 And she was the good one, I guess.

00:02:02.920 The niece is the one who has a problem, writing the anti-Trump books.

00:02:07.480 But she passed away at 86.

00:02:09.220 Why is this important?

00:02:10.080 Well, so Donald Trump is 77.

00:02:15.420 And his sister died at 86.

00:02:19.100 He would go into office at, if he won, at 78.

00:02:24.720 And he would complete at 72.

00:02:30.220 I'm sorry, 82.

00:02:31.000 Do you feel, and then given that women have a longer life expectancy, does it give you any pause about Trump's age?

00:02:42.360 You should.

00:02:44.220 That's exactly what you should.

00:02:45.680 And this is exactly the reason that I endorsed Veik.

00:02:51.820 Because as much as I like many things about, you know, Trump, he is a troublemaker.

00:02:58.740 I mean, he is an expensive president, because he gets people all riled up.

00:03:03.960 But that's probably going to happen with any Republican.

00:03:06.480 So I'm not sure you can hold that against him.

00:03:09.700 But he's really knocking on the actuarial door by the end of a four-year run.

00:03:16.460 And did I or did I not warn the world that Biden would be too old by the end of his even first term?

00:03:26.720 Did I not tell everybody?

00:03:28.740 Did I not say that loudly and clearly and often, too old, too old, too old?

00:03:34.060 And now here we are.

00:03:35.960 The entire world says, hmm, too old.

00:03:39.320 How is that going to be different for Trump, honestly?

00:03:43.020 I mean, if you let your bias down just a moment,

00:03:46.100 do you really want the guy in his early 80s to be president?

00:03:52.520 Now, to be fair, he does look like he's 100%.

00:03:55.480 I don't think he's lost his step.

00:03:58.240 In fact, he looks maybe refreshed from when he was in office.

00:04:01.920 So he doesn't show any signs of it, in my opinion.

00:04:04.360 I guess he's used, he's called Biden Obama a few times when he's talking about him.

00:04:11.020 But doesn't everybody do that?

00:04:14.300 Do you know anybody who has not called somebody Obama accidentally?

00:04:20.300 Haven't I done that?

00:04:21.840 Haven't I done that on this?

00:04:23.060 I think I've done it on this live stream.

00:04:25.820 I'll bet I've said Obama when I met some other president at least once.

00:04:30.340 But there's nothing unusual about that.

00:04:32.440 That's not really a sign of age.

00:04:34.720 I wouldn't say.

00:04:36.280 It just feels like a natural mistake.

00:04:38.880 Anyway, it's certainly a wake-up call about age

00:04:42.340 and not taking it seriously got us where we are.

00:04:45.400 You get that, right?

00:04:48.400 Not taking age seriously got us where we are.

00:04:53.520 Do you want to do it again?

00:04:55.320 So that's the vivant question.

00:04:57.980 The vivant question is, you knew you made a mistake last time.

00:05:01.040 The country, not you specifically.

00:05:03.200 You know you made a mistake last time.

00:05:04.880 You elected somebody who was just simply too old.

00:05:08.260 Do you want to do it again?

00:05:11.260 I don't know.

00:05:11.780 We're heading that way.

00:05:15.400 We all wonder how AI will handle troubling, sensitive topics.

00:05:23.780 Anything in the woke category, you wonder how it's going to handle it.

00:05:26.820 And I was asking the Amazon digital assistant,

00:05:31.560 which is some kind of an AI engine now.

00:05:35.080 Because remember when, I don't want to use the word for it,

00:05:37.680 but you know the digital assistant from Amazon

00:05:40.780 that sits on your desk, if you have one.

00:05:43.680 So I asked it, is IQ hereditary?

00:05:49.500 Because I knew that would be a sensitive topic.

00:05:51.780 And I didn't know if it would give me the actual answer

00:05:54.260 or if it would dance around it a little bit.

00:05:56.500 But the answer was that IQ is 40 to 80% hereditary.

00:06:02.780 Does that sound true to you?

00:06:05.100 And then I checked the internet,

00:06:08.540 and that does seem to be the estimate that science is giving us,

00:06:12.080 40 to 80% hereditary.

00:06:13.680 Now, are they doing a little weasel thing with us?

00:06:22.060 Because hereditary is different from genetic, isn't it?

00:06:27.160 And if you weren't careful with your language,

00:06:29.860 you would think that they were the same.

00:06:31.360 For example, two siblings could have even a different,

00:06:36.880 according to 23andMe,

00:06:38.400 they could have a different ethnic mix.

00:06:41.460 You know, your sibling could have a little more,

00:06:43.880 you know, German than you have.

00:06:46.820 Maybe you've got a little more Neanderthal or something.

00:06:50.460 So we know that two children from the same parents

00:06:54.020 could have a little different mix.

00:06:55.420 But once you're born, you have what you have.

00:07:00.420 Do you think it changes after you're born?

00:07:03.220 And how much?

00:07:06.120 Well, here's what I think.

00:07:07.760 I think that the answer that IQ is 40 to 80% hereditary

00:07:12.980 is a socially acceptable way to present the science,

00:07:18.680 but also misleading.

00:07:21.080 It's socially acceptable because it would say

00:07:23.400 everybody could be smart,

00:07:25.060 and you could even be born in a bad situation,

00:07:27.660 but, you know, educate yourself up to a real useful level.

00:07:30.880 And that's a good message for society.

00:07:34.320 If you're trying to keep society cohesive,

00:07:38.060 melting pot and all that stuff,

00:07:39.780 that's a good take.

00:07:41.260 But is that compatible with the fact that

00:07:43.900 what you're born with is what you're born with?

00:07:46.720 Because that's sort of different, right?

00:07:49.040 You could have two siblings

00:07:50.160 where one was just born smarter than the other one.

00:07:53.820 Doesn't that happen all the time?

00:07:55.080 And, you know, but, you know,

00:07:58.920 smarter according to one very specific measure

00:08:02.300 of intelligence,

00:08:03.280 which does not measure artistic intelligence,

00:08:08.180 kinesthetic intelligence,

00:08:10.340 all kinds of different intelligences,

00:08:13.280 but it gets one narrow type.

00:08:16.900 So here's what I think.

00:08:19.680 I do believe your environment

00:08:21.460 can lower your natural IQ.

00:08:26.620 In other words,

00:08:27.280 if someone is born and raised by wolves,

00:08:30.740 and then you give them an IQ test,

00:08:32.940 they're going to not do so well.

00:08:34.600 If someone is raised in a well-off family

00:08:37.000 with two teachers for parents,

00:08:38.780 and they raise them to go to an Ivy League school,

00:08:42.380 well, then the environment is doing the best they can.

00:08:44.900 Maybe even would raise your perceived IQ.

00:08:47.820 But I'll tell you my observation.

00:08:50.000 My observation is this.

00:08:52.180 My useful IQ,

00:08:55.000 which is a term I'm making up,

00:08:57.120 so this doesn't exist anywhere else,

00:08:59.320 my practical IQ,

00:09:01.620 the part that gets me to navigate the world,

00:09:04.780 is determined much by what I was born with,

00:09:09.060 but probably as much by my talent stack.

00:09:13.560 So I've told you this before.

00:09:14.940 If it appears to people who have been watching me for a while

00:09:18.020 that I have clear views on some topics,

00:09:21.460 it's because of the specific background training I have.

00:09:25.600 For example, if you want to understand what people will do in any given situation,

00:09:31.780 a good thing to know would be persuasion.

00:09:34.500 So if you're an expert in persuasion,

00:09:37.620 you're going to see people and their motivations a little more clearly.

00:09:41.360 Would that seem like you had a higher IQ?

00:09:44.000 In a practical sense it would.

00:09:46.780 Because you could be talking to someone who's much smarter,

00:09:49.480 but if they don't have that understanding, it'd be different.

00:09:53.940 Now, suppose you added to that the understanding of economics.

00:10:01.800 If you had this understanding of economics,

00:10:04.520 then you also have the follow-the-money predictive power.

00:10:08.580 It's like, wait, persuasion is predictive,

00:10:12.220 but following the interests of money is predictive too.

00:10:15.580 So what if you only had one of those things?

00:10:17.900 Suppose you knew economics, but you didn't know persuasion.

00:10:20.500 Well, you wouldn't see Trump coming.

00:10:23.000 You wouldn't have known that Trump was a bigger force than you thought

00:10:26.500 if you only knew economics.

00:10:28.320 So when you add economics and persuasion,

00:10:31.300 suddenly you're seeing things more clearly.

00:10:34.440 In a practical sense, you have a higher functional IQ

00:10:38.460 because you can navigate your world more accurately and predict better.

00:10:43.220 Now, suppose you add on top of that business skill,

00:10:47.400 like business models, knowing how to build a business.

00:10:50.280 That's different than economics.

00:10:52.220 Economics is more the theoretical.

00:10:54.580 If you knew business models,

00:10:56.800 then you could also have another way to predict

00:10:58.740 because a good business model will beat a bad business model.

00:11:03.520 So that's another predictive vector.

00:11:06.360 Now, if you add on top of that that you've been following the news

00:11:09.200 since you were little, as I have,

00:11:12.880 you've got that extra thing where you've seen more history,

00:11:16.540 more examples, more patterns,

00:11:18.040 and then you add all those together.

00:11:20.840 You know persuasion, economics, business models,

00:11:24.560 and you've been following the news.

00:11:26.640 Now, I would argue that anybody who had that stack of talent

00:11:30.580 would be able to predict

00:11:32.960 and even analyze better than somebody who didn't have it.

00:11:36.340 Is that IQ?

00:11:38.320 Well, probably not.

00:11:40.740 I mean, if I took an IQ test,

00:11:42.120 I doubt it would be any different than when I was 20

00:11:45.180 and I took it the first time.

00:11:48.320 But my ability to function in the world

00:11:51.000 is maybe 100 times better.

00:11:52.620 It's not even close.

00:11:53.380 So I would say that you don't want to make too much of IQ,

00:11:58.340 but you're definitely born with your working base

00:12:03.540 and then there's a whole bunch you can do with it.

00:12:05.840 You can make it worse or better,

00:12:07.580 depending on how much you want.

00:12:08.620 Now, I would even extend that to watching the news.

00:12:11.940 And I say this about Democrats all the time.

00:12:15.360 The weird nature of the fact that Democrats believe

00:12:18.380 they're seeing the real news,

00:12:20.220 you know, the mainstream news,

00:12:21.220 and therefore they would not waste their time

00:12:23.640 to look at the alternative views on the right,

00:12:26.920 makes them functionally lower IQ.

00:12:30.820 They don't have bad genes.

00:12:32.580 I'm not saying that.

00:12:33.760 Nothing about the genes.

00:12:35.360 And there's nothing about even their education system.

00:12:38.980 They may have actually been educated just fine.

00:12:41.600 But if when you're done with all that

00:12:43.600 and the only thing you're looking at is one view

00:12:46.620 and you're simply locked down at the other view,

00:12:49.220 you would be functionally dumber

00:12:51.180 than somebody who had similar capabilities

00:12:54.300 but just had access to both left and right.

00:12:58.140 And that's what I see.

00:12:59.960 To me, it looks like Democrats are functionally lower IQ,

00:13:04.460 but not because of their genes

00:13:06.560 and not because of their educational attainment,

00:13:10.040 only because their talent stack

00:13:12.340 has not extended to seeing the other stuff.

00:13:15.120 Now, that's not because the people on the right are wiser

00:13:17.780 and are more interested in seeing the whole picture.

00:13:22.080 Nothing like that.

00:13:23.300 People are pretty similar.

00:13:25.260 But the people on the right are forced

00:13:27.500 to encounter the mainstream narrative.

00:13:30.960 They don't have a choice.

00:13:31.820 It's everywhere.

00:13:32.300 And then they see their own set of information

00:13:35.820 and they can compare it

00:13:36.980 and maybe triangulate and say,

00:13:39.120 well, that looks like BS on our side this time.

00:13:41.420 It looks like BS on their side this time.

00:13:43.940 Or it looks like half of us,

00:13:45.800 you know, it's half BS on both sides.

00:13:47.860 That sort of thing.

00:13:48.880 But it's not close.

00:13:50.480 But if you watch both sides,

00:13:52.740 it does make one side look functionally like a lower IQ,

00:13:56.600 even though there's nothing wrong with them

00:13:59.180 other than access to information.

00:14:02.720 All right.

00:14:05.740 There's a new device by a company called Humane.

00:14:09.280 It's called a wearable pin.

00:14:10.740 So it's a little thing you literally pin to your shirt

00:14:14.180 or your jacket by your breastplate.

00:14:17.580 And it's sort of alive and AI all the time.

00:14:21.520 Now, it's not listening all the time.

00:14:23.760 They're very careful to say it's not,

00:14:25.620 you know, it's not alive all the time.

00:14:28.060 You have to tap it.

00:14:29.460 So it's more like a Star Trek communicator thing.

00:14:32.540 It's on your chest and you tap it once to wake it up.

00:14:35.960 And then you can just tell it what to do.

00:14:38.040 So I guess it has a camera

00:14:39.420 and it can see your environment.

00:14:41.200 You could tell it,

00:14:42.360 hey, can I get this can of soup cheaper somewhere else?

00:14:47.860 And we'll look at the can of soup,

00:14:49.960 maybe scan it,

00:14:51.880 tell you there's another place to get it.

00:14:53.260 So basically it'd be like your little buddy

00:14:55.900 that's always just giving you good advice

00:14:58.100 everywhere you go.

00:14:59.440 But it also has this little projector in it.

00:15:02.300 So you could hold your bare hand in front of it

00:15:04.960 and it projects on the problem of your hand

00:15:06.920 information you could read.

00:15:10.340 And that's pretty cool.

00:15:11.180 Now, I told you a while ago,

00:15:15.520 and first of all,

00:15:16.700 don't take any investment advice from me.

00:15:20.300 That's not what I do.

00:15:21.520 So I'm going to mention an investment,

00:15:23.640 but it's not a recommendation.

00:15:25.520 It's just by way of explaining my point of view.

00:15:28.320 I sold all of my Apple stock recently

00:15:31.440 and it was because of AI.

00:15:33.160 Now, probably, probably,

00:15:38.140 Apple will do a great job on AI.

00:15:40.560 They have tremendous resources

00:15:41.760 they're putting toward it right now.

00:15:43.360 Eventually you'd expect

00:15:44.520 to have a whole different product in your hand.

00:15:47.740 And Apple, being Apple,

00:15:49.740 is likely to have the best people working on it

00:15:52.300 and really come up with a good productized thing.

00:15:55.880 Likely.

00:15:57.220 However, what they did lose is their monopoly.

00:16:00.440 And the reason I invested in them

00:16:04.200 is their moat was so large

00:16:06.480 that they could just print money forever

00:16:08.560 and nobody could compete with them.

00:16:10.700 So I was investing in them like a monopoly,

00:16:14.400 not like a company that's just doing a good job.

00:16:17.780 As soon as AI became a thing,

00:16:20.180 it was obvious it's going to start to dominate,

00:16:23.420 Apple lost its monopoly

00:16:24.860 in the sense that it will lose its monopoly.

00:16:28.500 It hasn't yet, but it's obvious that it will.

00:16:31.520 There'll be some other mechanism to communicate

00:16:34.020 and do all those app things.

00:16:36.440 So if the app concept goes away,

00:16:39.100 so does the iPhone advantage completely.

00:16:43.020 And I think that's what AI will give us.

00:16:45.260 Some kind of device

00:16:46.800 that you can do all the things

00:16:48.820 an app can do without an app.

00:16:50.880 You just talk to it.

00:16:52.520 And that's the ultimate...

00:16:54.500 The ultimate app is just the one you talk to

00:16:56.940 and it can do anything you want.

00:16:59.800 All right.

00:17:00.920 So that's on the way.

00:17:01.860 I don't know that this specific wearable pin

00:17:04.640 will be a home run or anything.

00:17:07.540 I don't feel it.

00:17:09.840 Here's the difference.

00:17:11.380 When smartphones first came out,

00:17:13.360 you started hearing about them.

00:17:15.300 I don't know if any of you had this experience,

00:17:17.920 but I had an irrational lust for that product,

00:17:23.080 even when it was terrible.

00:17:24.440 In its infancy, it really was a piece of crap,

00:17:27.680 the very first smartphone.

00:17:29.580 But boy, did I want it.

00:17:31.580 In a way, I could really feel the lust for a product,

00:17:35.400 which is unusual.

00:17:36.560 I don't have many product impulses at all.

00:17:40.600 But when I look at this wearable pin,

00:17:43.200 I have an intellectual reaction to it.

00:17:45.740 It's like, oh, that's an innovative

00:17:48.080 and interesting way to go.

00:17:50.100 And I could see how it would have some advantages.

00:17:53.160 But I don't feel it.

00:17:55.400 Does anybody feel it?

00:17:57.180 Do you feel it the way you felt

00:17:58.700 when you knew there was such a thing

00:18:00.520 as a smartphone for the first time?

00:18:02.680 When you heard there was a smartphone,

00:18:04.480 you wanted it, didn't you?

00:18:08.080 All right.

00:18:08.700 We're all different.

00:18:09.760 So a lot of you said no.

00:18:12.140 Well, eventually you wanted it, most of you.

00:18:14.480 All right, there's a neuroendocrinology researcher

00:18:20.840 named Robert Sapolsky,

00:18:23.680 who wrote a book,

00:18:24.500 and he's been giving some interviews.

00:18:26.440 And he's talking about free will not existing.

00:18:30.780 Now, if you were going to ask somebody,

00:18:34.480 does free will exist,

00:18:36.160 who's the best person to ask?

00:18:37.780 Well, I would be looking for

00:18:41.000 a neuroendocrinology researcher

00:18:44.440 because you'd have to know the neuro part,

00:18:46.860 you know, the brain part.

00:18:48.000 But you would also need to know

00:18:49.560 the endocrinology part, the chemistry.

00:18:54.140 You know, because your cognition

00:18:55.940 is some weird Frankenstein monster

00:18:58.920 of brain action and chemistry.

00:19:02.580 So you'd have to know both.

00:19:04.280 So he knows both.

00:19:05.240 And he's looked at it forever,

00:19:07.400 and he says, basically,

00:19:08.820 your human actions are determined

00:19:11.360 by neurobiology, hormones, childhood,

00:19:13.520 and life circumstances,

00:19:15.100 and there's no such thing as free will.

00:19:18.320 In any practical sense,

00:19:20.380 there's no such thing.

00:19:21.900 So he's the expert.

00:19:24.060 Now, who told you there was no free will

00:19:26.480 decades before the person

00:19:29.480 who was the expert told you?

00:19:30.780 I did.

00:19:32.140 I've been telling you forever.

00:19:33.100 And do you know why I knew it

00:19:34.940 before this expert who studied for decades

00:19:37.500 to come up with the same answer?

00:19:39.980 Because it's obvious.

00:19:42.740 I knew it because it's obvious.

00:19:44.380 Because the laws of physics

00:19:45.920 do not stop at the outside of your skull.

00:19:49.980 Obviously, the laws of physics

00:19:51.620 apply inside your head

00:19:53.120 as well as outside.

00:19:54.580 So whatever your brain is doing

00:19:55.880 is the same thing your lawnmower is doing,

00:19:57.640 just more complicated.

00:19:59.380 The lawnmower doesn't have a choice

00:20:00.840 of turning into a toaster

00:20:02.440 and walking away.

00:20:05.140 It can only do what a lawnmower can do.

00:20:06.880 That's it.

00:20:07.380 You pull the cord,

00:20:08.240 it starts if it's functional.

00:20:11.500 Same with you.

00:20:12.880 So it was always obvious,

00:20:14.660 but since we resist it so much as humans,

00:20:17.480 and the reason we resist it,

00:20:19.720 and there's somebody who's going to say this

00:20:21.300 in the comments right now.

00:20:22.560 I mean, I don't have to read them to know.

00:20:24.360 I'm waiting for it.

00:20:25.320 If we didn't have free will,

00:20:28.680 then you shouldn't be punishing people

00:20:30.860 for crimes, right?

00:20:32.400 And then the whole system falls apart

00:20:33.940 because we all turn into animals.

00:20:35.860 Is anybody thinking that?

00:20:37.340 That the moment you allow yourself

00:20:39.140 to think there's no free will,

00:20:41.200 well, I guess you can't punish people.

00:20:43.820 I guess there's no laws.

00:20:45.780 I guess there's no jail.

00:20:47.620 Do you know why that's stupid?

00:20:50.700 This isn't a matter of opinion.

00:20:52.620 That would just be stupid.

00:20:53.440 Do you know why that's a stupid idea?

00:20:56.700 Because there's no free will.

00:21:00.180 Let's get back to the basics.

00:21:02.060 Do you know why there is jail

00:21:03.420 and there is punishment

00:21:04.520 and you do think that you need them?

00:21:07.540 Because you don't have free will.

00:21:10.300 You don't, I don't.

00:21:12.000 You could believe you do have free will

00:21:14.120 and you'd still have jail,

00:21:15.400 or you could believe there's no such thing

00:21:17.320 as free will and you'd still have jail.

00:21:20.000 Do you know why I know that?

00:21:21.760 Because I don't believe in free will,

00:21:23.100 but I certainly believe in jail.

00:21:26.240 Right?

00:21:26.540 And so do pretty much everybody

00:21:27.880 who doesn't believe in free will.

00:21:29.380 Do you think Sam Harris,

00:21:30.500 who also doesn't believe in free will,

00:21:32.220 do you think he's opposed to jail?

00:21:34.560 I don't think so.

00:21:37.300 Yeah.

00:21:37.820 No, you don't have any risk at all.

00:21:40.040 Things will be exactly the way they are now,

00:21:42.580 whether you think it's free will or not,

00:21:44.480 because you don't have free will.

00:21:46.640 And that should be obvious.

00:21:50.020 But it isn't.

00:21:53.000 All right, so nothing will change

00:21:54.460 whether you have free will or not.

00:21:55.880 I saw a video from ABC News

00:21:58.700 featuring Jenna Ellis,

00:22:00.600 who had been one of Trump's attorneys,

00:22:03.580 and she had a story to tell

00:22:05.880 that will make Democrats cheer

00:22:08.280 and Republicans say,

00:22:11.140 uh-oh.

00:22:11.460 Now, to understand the story,

00:22:16.800 it really, really matters

00:22:18.300 the exact wording,

00:22:20.380 and it really, really matters

00:22:21.820 who was talking to whom,

00:22:23.560 and it really, really matters

00:22:25.320 where they were

00:22:26.300 and the context of where they were talking.

00:22:28.880 Right?

00:22:29.620 So know that all of that matters a lot

00:22:32.480 in what I'm going to tell you,

00:22:34.000 and we might not know

00:22:35.520 all of those nuances.

00:22:36.680 So I'll tell it as best I can

00:22:40.120 in the version that would make

00:22:41.880 Democrats happy.

00:22:44.180 And then I'll tell you

00:22:44.840 what I think is really happening,

00:22:46.280 but I don't know.

00:22:47.300 Okay?

00:22:47.800 So the version that would make

00:22:49.240 Democrats happy,

00:22:50.580 if I were to explain in my own words

00:22:53.280 what I think Jenna Ellis said

00:22:54.860 on the video,

00:22:55.920 it would be something like this.

00:22:58.060 That Dan Scavino,

00:23:00.000 who's very close to Trump,

00:23:03.300 and I think he was working

00:23:04.600 at the time as the deputy,

00:23:08.000 what do you call it,

00:23:09.140 the deputy chief of staff

00:23:10.660 or something.

00:23:11.700 I think that was his role

00:23:12.660 at the time.

00:23:13.560 So Scavino has always been

00:23:15.800 really close to Trump

00:23:17.240 because before that

00:23:18.820 he handled his social media,

00:23:21.240 and Trump was always tweeting.

00:23:22.740 So he would have Scavino

00:23:24.040 like sitting right next to him

00:23:25.780 about half of the day, I think.

00:23:27.660 I mean, Scavino was there

00:23:29.020 all the time

00:23:29.700 because he was the one

00:23:31.800 connecting him

00:23:32.560 to the social media world.

00:23:34.600 But anyway,

00:23:35.520 the claim is that

00:23:36.620 Jenna said something like

00:23:39.620 the path to challenge

00:23:43.080 the 2020 election.

00:23:44.600 So this was at the,

00:23:46.100 I believe it was at some kind

00:23:47.140 of a Christmas event

00:23:48.300 for Trump supporters.

00:23:51.000 So remember this,

00:23:52.340 it's a Christmas event

00:23:53.640 for Trump supporters,

00:23:54.840 but give me a fact check on that.

00:23:56.600 If somebody,

00:23:57.480 I think I heard that.

00:23:59.520 Now, if it's a,

00:24:00.500 if it's a Christmas event,

00:24:02.840 what would you expect

00:24:03.800 to also be true

00:24:04.960 at that event?

00:24:07.520 Alcohol?

00:24:08.960 Would you expect that alcohol

00:24:10.240 was involved

00:24:11.600 in any kind of a Christmas party?

00:24:14.520 I would assume so.

00:24:16.320 Alcohol.

00:24:17.360 All right.

00:24:17.920 So we don't know if alcohol

00:24:19.240 has anything to do

00:24:20.240 with the story,

00:24:21.100 but we also don't,

00:24:22.880 we don't know

00:24:23.640 that it doesn't.

00:24:25.800 Right?

00:24:26.060 So just keep in your mind,

00:24:28.180 it's an event

00:24:29.160 where alcohol

00:24:29.900 was probably present.

00:24:32.540 Right?

00:24:33.120 That's important.

00:24:34.460 But we don't know

00:24:35.240 if it had anything

00:24:36.020 to do with it.

00:24:36.640 It just probably

00:24:37.220 was present.

00:24:38.700 So the claim is that

00:24:40.440 when Jenna said

00:24:41.660 basically the path

00:24:43.080 to challenging

00:24:43.820 the election in 2020

00:24:45.060 is complete,

00:24:46.860 there's sort of

00:24:47.500 nothing left,

00:24:48.800 you know,

00:24:48.980 we've burnt up

00:24:50.900 all of our challenges.

00:24:52.340 So it's time

00:24:53.180 to move on.

00:24:53.820 And Dan Scavino

00:24:56.540 allegedly said

00:24:57.900 something like,

00:25:00.060 the boss,

00:25:01.520 meaning Trump,

00:25:02.460 everybody would understand

00:25:03.480 him to be the boss,

00:25:05.340 is not going to leave

00:25:07.360 under any circumstance.

00:25:11.200 Now,

00:25:11.860 do you hear the Democrats

00:25:12.940 challenging,

00:25:14.080 like cheering?

00:25:15.240 What?

00:25:16.160 We got him.

00:25:17.120 We got him.

00:25:18.440 We have the smoking gun.

00:25:20.800 We have Trump

00:25:21.800 admitting

00:25:22.240 that he's not going

00:25:24.000 to leave

00:25:24.240 under any circumstance.

00:25:26.140 We got him.

00:25:28.900 Do you?

00:25:31.800 How do you hear that?

00:25:33.000 How do you hear that?

00:25:36.240 Here's what I hear.

00:25:38.600 Hearsay.

00:25:39.920 It's hearsay.

00:25:40.800 So what Jenna Ellis

00:25:43.340 hears Dan Scavino say

00:25:46.480 about what Trump

00:25:48.360 thinks or said

00:25:49.480 is not exactly

00:25:51.380 the evidence

00:25:52.380 that you want

00:25:52.900 in a courtroom.

00:25:54.460 What you want

00:25:55.440 is Trump saying it

00:25:56.660 or, you know,

00:25:57.300 some document

00:25:57.920 recording it.

00:25:58.700 That would be the best.

00:25:59.940 You know,

00:26:00.140 something that recorded

00:26:01.040 his thoughts

00:26:01.700 in real time

00:26:02.300 at the time.

00:26:03.740 But we don't have that.

00:26:05.620 I think everybody

00:26:06.300 agrees there's nothing

00:26:07.100 recorded or nothing

00:26:08.120 written along

00:26:09.440 these lines.

00:26:09.960 Second,

00:26:11.720 you'd want to get

00:26:12.500 directly from Dan Scavino.

00:26:14.580 Dan,

00:26:15.220 did you actually

00:26:16.060 say that?

00:26:17.700 Yes or no?

00:26:18.940 And if you did say it,

00:26:20.520 was that actually,

00:26:21.640 in your opinion,

00:26:22.460 an accurate

00:26:23.180 representation

00:26:24.220 of what

00:26:24.820 the boss said?

00:26:27.400 What do you think

00:26:28.160 he'd say?

00:26:29.500 Under oath,

00:26:30.460 do you think

00:26:30.880 he would say,

00:26:31.460 yeah,

00:26:31.660 I did say that

00:26:32.340 to Jenna Ellis

00:26:33.060 because Trump said

00:26:34.480 under no circumstances

00:26:35.720 is he going to leave.

00:26:36.520 He's just going to

00:26:37.100 take over the country.

00:26:38.340 Do you think

00:26:38.720 he would say that?

00:26:39.300 Is that likely?

00:26:43.060 Here's what I think

00:26:43.980 he would say.

00:26:46.480 That was an

00:26:47.360 accurate statement

00:26:48.360 of what he was saying,

00:26:51.520 but I don't know

00:26:52.740 what he was thinking.

00:26:55.300 So it could have been

00:26:56.300 simply a statement

00:26:57.140 that he was going to

00:26:58.580 fight in every way

00:27:00.020 he could fight,

00:27:00.920 but not literally

00:27:02.960 staying in office

00:27:04.280 once there was

00:27:05.160 nothing left

00:27:05.700 to fight about.

00:27:06.320 Now,

00:27:08.260 what happened

00:27:08.940 in reality?

00:27:10.340 The reality

00:27:11.120 was that

00:27:11.820 when,

00:27:13.480 you know,

00:27:13.840 the vote

00:27:14.800 got certified

00:27:15.480 as it was going

00:27:16.440 to do,

00:27:17.600 he packed up

00:27:18.780 and he left.

00:27:20.540 Is there any,

00:27:21.360 is there anybody

00:27:21.960 who said,

00:27:22.580 no, no,

00:27:23.840 you know,

00:27:24.240 even though we

00:27:24.900 were packing the boxes,

00:27:26.000 he stayed in the office

00:27:27.040 and we had to

00:27:28.440 drag him out?

00:27:29.280 Nobody said that.

00:27:30.000 So the facts

00:27:33.820 on the ground

00:27:34.440 suggest

00:27:35.060 that he did not

00:27:37.160 plan to stay there

00:27:38.980 no matter what

00:27:39.780 because when

00:27:40.520 no matter what came,

00:27:42.340 he just peacefully

00:27:43.180 packed up and left.

00:27:45.520 So do you think

00:27:46.240 Dan's,

00:27:46.880 do you think

00:27:47.320 the Jenna Ellis

00:27:48.260 take

00:27:48.740 at a party

00:27:50.280 with alcohol

00:27:50.960 where people

00:27:52.060 are going to say

00:27:52.580 things that you say

00:27:53.560 after a few drinks,

00:27:54.920 he's not going

00:27:55.820 anywhere,

00:27:56.320 the boss says

00:27:56.960 he's never leaving.

00:27:57.860 Doesn't that sound

00:27:59.720 like drunk talk

00:28:00.400 to you?

00:28:02.760 And do you think

00:28:03.520 that they could find

00:28:04.140 anything else

00:28:04.860 that would back up

00:28:05.540 the drunk talk?

00:28:06.620 I don't know

00:28:07.140 if it's drunk talk,

00:28:08.060 by the way.

00:28:09.000 I'm just speculating

00:28:10.060 that it was a party

00:28:11.020 where alcohol

00:28:11.560 was involved.

00:28:13.040 It sounds exactly

00:28:14.300 like something

00:28:14.980 you say with a drink

00:28:15.940 in your hand

00:28:16.600 that's exactly

00:28:18.000 not what you do

00:28:18.960 in the real world.

00:28:20.700 That's how it

00:28:21.320 comes across.

00:28:22.800 But, of course,

00:28:23.480 everybody will

00:28:24.000 interpret it

00:28:24.540 their own way.

00:28:27.080 All right,

00:28:27.560 here's what I think

00:28:28.400 might be a big change.

00:28:31.520 Trump went hard

00:28:32.680 on True Social today

00:28:33.980 saying that

00:28:35.100 the prosecutors

00:28:35.960 and judges,

00:28:36.800 the people

00:28:37.140 trying to take him out,

00:28:39.160 are suffering

00:28:40.340 from extreme

00:28:41.300 Trump derangement

00:28:42.480 syndrome.

00:28:43.720 Now, I'm pretty sure

00:28:44.920 he's used the term

00:28:45.840 before, right?

00:28:48.700 Trump has used

00:28:49.740 TDS

00:28:50.280 and Trump

00:28:51.020 derangement syndrome.

00:28:52.680 But,

00:28:53.180 if this shifts

00:28:55.360 a major,

00:28:56.260 let's say,

00:28:59.040 shift in messaging,

00:29:00.660 I think it would

00:29:01.260 be a smart one.

00:29:02.700 Because I've been

00:29:03.440 saying for a while

00:29:04.240 that the kill shot

00:29:05.640 is for him

00:29:06.860 to put together

00:29:07.500 the Trump derangement

00:29:08.840 argument.

00:29:11.220 The Trump derangement

00:29:12.700 argument

00:29:13.160 is all the hoaxes.

00:29:15.040 So what Trump's

00:29:17.100 campaign team

00:29:18.140 needs

00:29:18.600 is a nice,

00:29:19.940 clean,

00:29:21.100 short,

00:29:22.180 go through the hoaxes.

00:29:23.580 Here's what they said,

00:29:24.600 here's how they did

00:29:25.240 the hoax,

00:29:25.720 really quick.

00:29:26.960 Because you don't

00:29:28.060 want to do

00:29:28.440 one hoax

00:29:29.260 that would take

00:29:30.640 too long

00:29:31.160 and people

00:29:31.560 aren't going

00:29:32.200 to be bored

00:29:32.580 by it.

00:29:33.080 You want to hit

00:29:33.720 like every hoax

00:29:34.800 in like 10 seconds.

00:29:36.520 They claimed

00:29:36.940 he said this,

00:29:37.960 this is what he

00:29:38.600 actually said

00:29:39.120 that they didn't

00:29:39.580 show you.

00:29:40.240 They claimed

00:29:40.680 he said this,

00:29:41.480 here's what he

00:29:41.920 actually did.

00:29:42.760 They claimed

00:29:43.200 he overfed

00:29:43.780 the koi fish.

00:29:45.440 Here's Abe

00:29:46.380 doing the same thing.

00:29:48.080 Right?

00:29:48.520 So you could do

00:29:49.220 almost every one

00:29:49.940 of them

00:29:50.160 in five seconds.

00:29:51.640 Five seconds

00:29:52.340 for the claim,

00:29:53.500 five seconds

00:29:54.180 for the debunk.

00:29:55.580 Imagine you got

00:29:56.340 to the 20th

00:29:57.300 thing on the list

00:29:58.400 and there are 20.

00:30:00.820 Like,

00:30:01.380 there are 20.

00:30:03.220 How would you feel

00:30:04.540 if you were

00:30:05.140 somebody on the other side?

00:30:07.700 You would start

00:30:08.600 to understand

00:30:09.180 it as derangement syndrome.

00:30:11.320 And do you remember

00:30:11.840 they said that

00:30:12.660 when he became

00:30:13.240 president,

00:30:13.780 he would turn

00:30:14.320 into Hitler?

00:30:15.820 When did that happen?

00:30:18.440 Was it when he

00:30:19.460 peacefully packed up

00:30:20.500 his boxes

00:30:21.000 and lost?

00:30:24.920 Where was

00:30:26.000 the Hitler part?

00:30:27.440 The entire

00:30:28.120 Hitler part

00:30:28.740 is based on

00:30:29.420 the one hoax

00:30:30.180 that the

00:30:31.480 so-called

00:30:32.240 insurrection

00:30:32.860 of January 6th

00:30:34.220 had any

00:30:34.880 intention

00:30:35.480 or ability

00:30:36.260 to take over

00:30:36.980 the United States.

00:30:38.540 There was

00:30:38.820 neither the

00:30:39.380 intention

00:30:39.820 of 98%

00:30:41.320 of the people

00:30:41.760 or

00:30:42.580 the ability.

00:30:43.420 There was

00:30:44.020 never the ability.

00:30:44.920 And nobody

00:30:45.240 even bought

00:30:45.640 the resources.

00:30:46.780 Nobody even

00:30:47.280 brought any

00:30:47.820 resources

00:30:48.380 that would be

00:30:49.700 appropriate to

00:30:50.400 that job.

00:30:51.920 Yes,

00:30:52.480 they had some

00:30:52.900 clubs.

00:30:54.060 Yes,

00:30:54.300 they had some

00:30:54.740 bear spray.

00:30:56.080 Nobody overthrows

00:30:57.080 a country with

00:30:58.140 those things.

00:30:59.300 They didn't even

00:30:59.900 bring tools to do it.

00:31:01.760 There are tools.

00:31:03.980 Insurrections have

00:31:04.720 actual tools.

00:31:06.280 Weapons,

00:31:06.640 for example.

00:31:09.500 So,

00:31:10.140 yeah,

00:31:10.460 I think that

00:31:10.980 Trump could go

00:31:11.700 directly after

00:31:12.520 Trump derangement

00:31:13.420 syndrome and

00:31:14.700 make them defend

00:31:15.640 the hoaxes.

00:31:17.520 Actually,

00:31:18.000 make them talk

00:31:18.720 about the hoaxes

00:31:19.560 even if they're

00:31:20.100 saying,

00:31:20.340 no,

00:31:20.500 no,

00:31:20.680 this one was

00:31:21.200 true.

00:31:22.340 Make them

00:31:22.680 talk about it.

00:31:24.160 Force them

00:31:24.760 into that

00:31:25.360 argument because

00:31:26.440 they can't win

00:31:27.040 the Trump

00:31:27.440 derangement

00:31:27.940 syndrome argument.

00:31:29.540 It's so

00:31:30.380 well documented.

00:31:32.860 I mean,

00:31:33.180 at this point,

00:31:33.980 science agrees

00:31:35.020 with them

00:31:35.360 completely.

00:31:36.640 Science recognizes

00:31:38.220 there is,

00:31:38.960 in fact,

00:31:39.320 a derangement

00:31:39.920 syndrome.

00:31:40.540 It's not

00:31:40.900 imaginary.

00:31:41.940 It's not

00:31:42.200 political.

00:31:42.900 It's actually

00:31:43.420 medical,

00:31:44.580 and it matters.

00:31:46.280 It does matter.

00:31:49.220 Governor of New

00:31:50.020 York says

00:31:50.520 they're going to

00:31:50.840 do a bunch

00:31:51.380 of new

00:31:51.780 online surveillance

00:31:52.860 looking for

00:31:54.020 all the

00:31:54.320 anti-Semitic

00:31:55.240 hate online.

00:31:56.780 This would be

00:31:57.200 in New York.

00:32:00.720 So,

00:32:01.640 does that

00:32:02.700 scare you?

00:32:04.940 So,

00:32:05.500 they're going

00:32:05.740 to look for

00:32:06.180 the anti-Semitic

00:32:07.820 people

00:32:08.360 who are on

00:32:11.000 the right

00:32:11.300 or the left,

00:32:13.240 interestingly.

00:32:15.820 I don't know.

00:32:16.860 Every time

00:32:17.400 they do

00:32:17.780 surveillance,

00:32:18.740 it seems scary,

00:32:19.800 but it's going

00:32:20.660 to happen.

00:32:21.620 It's going to

00:32:22.240 happen no matter

00:32:22.780 what.

00:32:23.260 I mean,

00:32:23.460 it's legal to

00:32:24.120 look at public

00:32:26.220 statements.

00:32:28.400 If you're

00:32:29.020 posting on X,

00:32:30.620 it's legal for

00:32:31.380 them to look

00:32:31.840 at it and get

00:32:33.040 an idea of

00:32:33.500 what's going on.

00:32:34.080 So,

00:32:34.940 I don't know

00:32:35.360 how worried

00:32:35.900 to be about

00:32:36.380 that,

00:32:36.700 but every

00:32:36.960 time you

00:32:37.380 are,

00:32:39.180 I wouldn't

00:32:39.600 call it

00:32:39.900 privacy,

00:32:40.500 because I

00:32:40.740 think it's

00:32:41.040 what you're

00:32:41.380 doing in

00:32:41.720 public,

00:32:42.960 but certainly

00:32:44.360 you've got to

00:32:45.400 watch for it.

00:32:46.520 Be alert about

00:32:47.420 these things.

00:32:49.280 All right,

00:32:49.680 protesters are

00:32:51.400 around the

00:32:51.800 New York Times

00:32:52.340 building,

00:32:53.100 and they're

00:32:53.520 saying,

00:32:54.320 shut it down,

00:32:55.180 meaning the

00:32:55.600 New York

00:32:55.860 Times,

00:32:56.200 I guess.

00:32:57.160 And these

00:32:58.980 are pro-Palestinian,

00:33:00.760 some would say

00:33:01.440 anti-Israel

00:33:02.220 protesters.

00:33:04.620 Now,

00:33:05.260 I would say

00:33:07.260 that the

00:33:07.680 easiest prediction

00:33:08.740 anybody ever

00:33:09.660 made,

00:33:10.680 and I don't

00:33:11.460 take credit

00:33:11.960 for this one,

00:33:13.020 you know,

00:33:13.360 I made it

00:33:13.860 too,

00:33:14.520 but I think

00:33:15.060 every one of

00:33:15.720 you made the

00:33:16.280 same prediction.

00:33:17.620 It goes like

00:33:18.280 this.

00:33:19.980 If on the

00:33:20.800 left you have

00:33:21.580 an oppressor-

00:33:22.620 oppressed

00:33:23.060 mindset,

00:33:24.800 where does

00:33:25.280 that end

00:33:25.700 up?

00:33:28.160 There's only

00:33:28.820 one way that

00:33:29.380 can go.

00:33:29.860 you run

00:33:31.340 out of

00:33:31.640 enemies,

00:33:32.380 and you

00:33:32.580 start eating

00:33:33.160 your own.

00:33:34.840 Right?

00:33:36.260 If that's

00:33:36.940 your model,

00:33:37.680 that the

00:33:38.040 world is

00:33:38.440 oppressor

00:33:38.960 and oppressed,

00:33:39.840 you have to

00:33:40.640 go after

00:33:41.020 your own

00:33:41.380 people eventually,

00:33:42.620 because they're

00:33:43.660 a little bit

00:33:44.180 different from

00:33:44.740 you,

00:33:45.160 and maybe

00:33:46.120 some of

00:33:46.480 them have

00:33:46.720 a little

00:33:46.920 more power

00:33:47.420 than you

00:33:47.740 do.

00:33:48.720 So as

00:33:49.260 soon as

00:33:49.500 you have

00:33:49.700 that

00:33:49.820 oppressor-

00:33:50.360 oppressed

00:33:50.620 mindset,

00:33:51.320 you eat

00:33:51.660 your own.

00:33:52.940 And so

00:33:53.620 now the

00:33:53.940 New York

00:33:54.180 Times is

00:33:55.580 surrounded by

00:33:56.180 its own,

00:33:57.100 and they're

00:33:57.420 trying to

00:33:57.740 eat them.

00:33:59.860 I laid

00:34:01.900 that

00:34:02.140 cognitive

00:34:02.580 dissonance

00:34:03.120 trap I

00:34:03.640 already talked

00:34:04.100 about,

00:34:04.920 in which

00:34:05.420 I was

00:34:06.760 cheekily

00:34:07.460 suggesting

00:34:08.000 you make

00:34:08.520 your family

00:34:10.340 mad at

00:34:10.760 you on

00:34:11.120 Thanksgiving.

00:34:12.100 Never a

00:34:12.540 good idea,

00:34:13.420 so I hope

00:34:14.600 you took

00:34:14.900 that as

00:34:15.320 not serious.

00:34:16.660 But the

00:34:18.300 idea would

00:34:19.340 be if you

00:34:19.700 have some

00:34:20.160 Democrat

00:34:20.880 relatives,

00:34:22.820 you could

00:34:24.800 ask them

00:34:25.420 some

00:34:26.980 questions.

00:34:27.920 anyway,

00:34:28.900 they would

00:34:29.120 trap them

00:34:29.640 into

00:34:29.920 cognitive

00:34:30.360 dissonance.

00:34:31.100 But I

00:34:32.020 don't want

00:34:32.280 to talk

00:34:32.460 about the

00:34:32.760 topic again,

00:34:33.460 just the

00:34:33.740 reaction to

00:34:34.260 it.

00:34:34.920 The people

00:34:35.460 who fell

00:34:36.200 into

00:34:36.620 cognitive

00:34:37.160 dissonance

00:34:37.800 just reading

00:34:38.460 my post

00:34:39.100 responded that

00:34:41.140 I didn't

00:34:41.560 know what

00:34:41.940 the definition

00:34:42.560 of cognitive

00:34:43.300 dissonance

00:34:43.860 was.

00:34:45.880 Does that

00:34:46.580 sound like

00:34:47.240 something that

00:34:47.960 might be

00:34:48.280 true?

00:34:50.020 Do you

00:34:50.620 think I've

00:34:51.140 written three

00:34:51.640 books on

00:34:52.120 it, in

00:34:53.140 which it's

00:34:53.500 like a

00:34:53.820 major component

00:34:54.600 of three

00:34:55.020 books,

00:34:55.640 talk about

00:34:56.180 it continuously,

00:34:56.980 even with

00:34:58.200 doctors and

00:34:58.940 experts, and

00:35:00.200 that I don't

00:35:00.560 know what

00:35:00.760 the definition

00:35:01.220 is?

00:35:02.860 But that

00:35:03.220 is cognitive

00:35:04.140 dissonance.

00:35:05.520 Then other

00:35:05.880 people dismiss

00:35:07.220 me as a

00:35:07.860 cartoonist as

00:35:09.820 if they have

00:35:10.400 anything to

00:35:10.920 do with the

00:35:11.280 point.

00:35:12.820 So those

00:35:13.260 are both

00:35:13.560 cognitive

00:35:14.020 dissonance.

00:35:15.400 So here's

00:35:18.320 the point.

00:35:19.300 A good

00:35:19.720 tell for

00:35:20.200 cognitive

00:35:20.680 dissonance

00:35:21.300 is somebody

00:35:22.380 has to

00:35:22.940 change the

00:35:23.660 definition of

00:35:24.420 a word to

00:35:25.060 something you've

00:35:25.600 never heard

00:35:26.200 before.

00:35:27.460 You'll see

00:35:27.840 that one a

00:35:28.220 lot, by

00:35:28.560 the way.

00:35:29.220 They'll just

00:35:29.560 change the

00:35:29.980 word to

00:35:30.300 some weird

00:35:30.760 definition to

00:35:32.560 allow them to

00:35:33.280 maintain their

00:35:33.940 original point

00:35:34.680 of view.

00:35:36.220 All right.

00:35:38.200 President Xi

00:35:38.940 has come to

00:35:39.560 San Francisco,

00:35:40.480 which you all

00:35:41.340 know was

00:35:42.400 amazingly,

00:35:43.520 surprisingly,

00:35:44.400 immediately

00:35:44.920 cleaned up as

00:35:46.660 soon as

00:35:47.140 President Xi

00:35:47.900 was going to

00:35:48.340 visit, which

00:35:49.320 makes all the

00:35:49.900 smart people

00:35:50.420 say, why

00:35:51.120 couldn't you

00:35:51.460 do that

00:35:51.820 before?

00:35:52.880 Of course

00:35:53.320 they could.

00:35:54.400 But they

00:35:54.700 haven't told us

00:35:55.260 where they put

00:35:55.760 those street

00:35:56.640 people, because

00:35:57.220 I feel like

00:35:57.700 they're coming

00:35:58.080 back.

00:35:59.320 If you think

00:35:59.900 San Francisco

00:36:00.540 is cleaned

00:36:01.600 up, I

00:36:03.160 don't think

00:36:03.560 so.

00:36:04.540 I think

00:36:05.260 they'll just

00:36:05.640 release all

00:36:06.320 those people

00:36:06.760 and they'll

00:36:07.160 wander back

00:36:07.700 to where

00:36:07.960 they were.

00:36:09.120 Won't they?

00:36:10.300 Why won't

00:36:10.840 they tell us

00:36:11.340 where they

00:36:11.660 are?

00:36:12.740 Have you

00:36:13.100 noticed an

00:36:13.680 insane amount

00:36:14.580 of lack of

00:36:15.400 curiosity about

00:36:16.340 where all the

00:36:16.860 street people

00:36:17.400 went?

00:36:18.940 They're very

00:36:19.600 uncurious.

00:36:20.320 How many

00:36:22.020 were there?

00:36:23.520 Have you

00:36:23.840 heard the

00:36:24.160 numbers?

00:36:25.300 So if we

00:36:26.100 had a real

00:36:26.620 press, you

00:36:27.600 would know

00:36:27.900 the number

00:36:28.420 of people,

00:36:29.160 roughly, that

00:36:30.200 they took off

00:36:30.800 the street.

00:36:31.540 You would

00:36:32.120 know where

00:36:32.540 they are and

00:36:33.320 what they're

00:36:33.640 doing with

00:36:34.040 them.

00:36:34.820 And you

00:36:35.180 would know

00:36:35.520 if the

00:36:35.900 plan is to

00:36:36.560 allow them

00:36:37.000 to come

00:36:37.320 back.

00:36:38.860 Right?

00:36:39.980 If we had

00:36:40.760 a real

00:36:41.100 press, those

00:36:42.360 would be

00:36:42.660 simple questions

00:36:43.720 to ask and

00:36:45.060 simple to

00:36:45.640 answer.

00:36:46.660 Because obviously

00:36:47.500 the people who

00:36:48.080 moved them know

00:36:48.640 where they are,

00:36:49.220 and it's not

00:36:49.600 going to be a

00:36:49.980 secret.

00:36:51.800 So this is

00:36:52.700 one of those

00:36:53.080 cases where you

00:36:53.860 can see that

00:36:54.340 you don't have

00:36:54.800 a press.

00:36:56.320 You don't

00:36:56.660 have anything,

00:36:57.880 you don't even

00:36:58.660 have the

00:37:00.820 illusion of

00:37:01.500 a press.

00:37:02.980 This is not

00:37:03.680 even trying to

00:37:04.540 give you the

00:37:05.100 illusion that

00:37:05.680 there's any

00:37:06.100 useful news.

00:37:07.840 The most

00:37:08.520 important part

00:37:09.100 of the story,

00:37:10.060 where the

00:37:10.600 hell are

00:37:11.000 they, is

00:37:12.860 left out of

00:37:13.380 the story.

00:37:14.540 And you

00:37:15.060 don't even

00:37:15.400 see any

00:37:15.720 curiosity about

00:37:16.580 it.

00:37:17.500 Except by

00:37:18.540 the poor

00:37:18.880 people who

00:37:19.500 can't find

00:37:20.220 out where

00:37:20.520 it is.

00:37:21.280 Now there

00:37:21.520 might be

00:37:21.800 some news

00:37:22.300 on it,

00:37:22.760 but it

00:37:23.040 hasn't hit

00:37:23.860 the national

00:37:25.420 level yet.

00:37:27.860 All right.

00:37:30.120 So the

00:37:30.940 thinking is

00:37:32.180 that there

00:37:32.560 might be

00:37:33.060 some kind

00:37:33.560 of a new

00:37:33.880 agreement

00:37:34.280 from China

00:37:35.040 about cracking

00:37:35.820 down on

00:37:36.620 fentanyl

00:37:37.260 because the

00:37:38.960 precursors come

00:37:39.900 from Chinese

00:37:41.060 companies.

00:37:42.280 And of course

00:37:42.760 we've asked

00:37:43.300 them before

00:37:43.860 and they've

00:37:44.400 said it

00:37:44.740 before that

00:37:45.800 they'd do

00:37:46.160 it.

00:37:46.300 But here's

00:37:46.940 what I

00:37:48.240 think was

00:37:48.700 a big

00:37:48.960 negotiating

00:37:49.600 mistake

00:37:50.480 for Biden.

00:37:52.160 And I

00:37:52.500 asked the

00:37:52.940 following

00:37:53.200 question.

00:37:54.320 Would

00:37:54.560 Trump have

00:37:55.180 made the

00:37:55.700 following

00:37:56.080 mistake?

00:37:58.380 So Biden,

00:37:59.640 and maybe he

00:38:00.360 didn't order

00:38:00.920 it, but you

00:38:01.620 have to assume

00:38:02.160 that Democrats

00:38:02.760 were all on

00:38:03.180 the same

00:38:03.460 page.

00:38:04.700 When Democrats

00:38:05.560 cleaned up

00:38:06.360 the street

00:38:07.280 people in

00:38:07.820 San Francisco,

00:38:09.440 many of them

00:38:10.660 were there

00:38:11.180 because of

00:38:12.000 fentanyl,

00:38:12.500 where he's

00:38:14.880 going to

00:38:15.260 negotiate

00:38:15.860 with President

00:38:16.640 Xi about

00:38:17.340 the effects

00:38:17.880 of fentanyl

00:38:18.600 on the

00:38:19.020 United States,

00:38:20.520 was that

00:38:21.060 the most

00:38:21.420 dumb fuck

00:38:22.080 thing anybody

00:38:22.780 ever did?

00:38:24.100 Let me tell

00:38:24.660 you how I

00:38:25.200 think Trump

00:38:27.020 would have

00:38:27.520 handled this.

00:38:28.920 I think he

00:38:29.780 would have

00:38:30.060 been in the

00:38:30.600 car with

00:38:31.040 Xi and

00:38:32.240 he would

00:38:32.500 have taken

00:38:32.880 him right

00:38:33.300 through the

00:38:33.980 homeless people

00:38:34.580 that he

00:38:34.880 left there

00:38:35.320 intentionally.

00:38:36.700 And he

00:38:36.880 said,

00:38:38.140 you see

00:38:38.420 this?

00:38:40.080 That's

00:38:40.400 because of

00:38:40.840 you.

00:38:42.500 And we

00:38:44.060 know that.

00:38:46.240 Every one

00:38:46.900 of these

00:38:47.200 people in

00:38:48.100 the fentanyl,

00:38:49.320 that's because

00:38:49.820 of you

00:38:50.100 personally.

00:38:51.480 It's not

00:38:51.800 about anybody

00:38:52.320 else.

00:38:53.340 It's about

00:38:53.840 you.

00:38:54.760 And you

00:38:55.080 know what

00:38:55.340 else?

00:38:56.380 We're not

00:38:57.040 going to

00:38:57.260 stand for

00:38:57.760 it.

00:38:59.000 So whatever

00:38:59.780 else we're

00:39:00.300 going to

00:39:00.500 negotiate

00:39:01.000 about and

00:39:01.780 whatever else

00:39:02.340 we're going

00:39:02.620 to talk

00:39:02.860 about,

00:39:03.620 you're going

00:39:03.960 to fucking

00:39:04.300 fix this.

00:39:06.100 And if

00:39:06.720 you don't,

00:39:07.900 everything

00:39:08.300 else is off

00:39:08.900 the table.

00:39:10.540 This is

00:39:11.240 not one

00:39:12.040 of the

00:39:12.300 things we

00:39:12.720 negotiate,

00:39:13.600 President

00:39:13.940 Shea.

00:39:14.920 This is

00:39:15.600 your ticket

00:39:16.100 to negotiate.

00:39:17.580 We're

00:39:18.060 going to

00:39:18.280 close your

00:39:18.960 fucking

00:39:19.480 embassy if

00:39:21.160 you don't

00:39:21.700 shut this

00:39:22.500 down in

00:39:23.380 an hour.

00:39:24.460 I need

00:39:25.180 you to

00:39:25.440 make a

00:39:25.760 phone call

00:39:26.180 right now.

00:39:27.480 You need

00:39:27.820 to shut

00:39:28.200 it down

00:39:28.520 before we

00:39:29.180 start

00:39:29.420 negotiating.

00:39:30.460 This is

00:39:30.960 not a

00:39:31.340 negotiation.

00:39:32.620 This is

00:39:33.220 the ticket

00:39:33.660 to the

00:39:34.020 negotiation.

00:39:35.160 You do

00:39:35.560 this first.

00:39:36.560 It's not

00:39:36.980 part of the

00:39:37.380 negotiation.

00:39:38.860 Because if

00:39:39.540 you do this,

00:39:40.640 we're

00:39:40.880 going to

00:39:41.040 respond as

00:39:41.960 strong.

00:39:43.020 You're

00:39:43.220 not going

00:39:43.520 to like

00:39:43.800 it.

00:39:45.740 Don't

00:39:46.160 ask what

00:39:46.560 I'm going

00:39:46.880 to do.

00:39:47.480 You're

00:39:47.760 not going

00:39:48.100 to like

00:39:48.400 it.

00:39:49.760 Then I

00:39:50.320 would cancel

00:39:50.940 TikTok

00:39:51.520 while I'm

00:39:53.500 in the

00:39:53.720 car,

00:39:54.840 just so

00:39:55.280 he knew

00:39:55.560 I was

00:39:55.840 serious.

00:39:57.020 I'd

00:39:57.300 basically

00:39:57.620 make a

00:39:58.100 call and

00:39:58.440 say,

00:39:58.860 fuck

00:40:00.020 Congress,

00:40:00.760 this is

00:40:01.080 a

00:40:01.220 commander-in-chief

00:40:01.940 decision,

00:40:03.000 shut down

00:40:03.580 TikTok,

00:40:04.840 buy this

00:40:05.420 afternoon.

00:40:07.300 Commander-in-chief,

00:40:08.440 no argument.

00:40:09.020 This is not

00:40:10.700 about Congress,

00:40:12.260 this is not

00:40:12.700 about legislation.

00:40:14.180 Commander-in-chief,

00:40:15.420 I'm making

00:40:15.840 the call.

00:40:17.240 And you

00:40:17.660 can take it

00:40:18.060 to the

00:40:18.300 Supreme

00:40:18.560 Court,

00:40:19.260 go ahead,

00:40:20.240 but it's

00:40:20.600 going to

00:40:20.720 be shut

00:40:21.080 down while

00:40:21.500 you're

00:40:21.660 arguing.

00:40:23.760 Now,

00:40:24.160 I think

00:40:24.720 some version

00:40:25.860 of that

00:40:26.380 is how

00:40:27.380 Trump

00:40:29.180 would

00:40:29.380 handle it.

00:40:30.220 Here's how

00:40:30.640 Biden

00:40:30.920 handled it.

00:40:32.280 He cleaned

00:40:32.780 up the

00:40:33.160 city,

00:40:34.180 so when

00:40:34.620 she pulls

00:40:35.220 up and

00:40:36.400 Biden

00:40:36.660 says,

00:40:37.160 but about

00:40:37.480 this

00:40:37.760 fentanyl,

00:40:38.320 she is

00:40:39.300 going to

00:40:39.540 say to

00:40:40.440 himself,

00:40:41.200 and accurately,

00:40:42.540 doesn't seem

00:40:43.240 too important

00:40:43.780 to you.

00:40:47.040 Looks like

00:40:47.700 you took

00:40:48.060 care of

00:40:48.380 it pretty

00:40:48.660 easily,

00:40:49.120 just cleaned

00:40:49.600 it right

00:40:49.880 up there.

00:40:51.120 Doesn't

00:40:51.460 look like

00:40:51.800 it was

00:40:51.980 a problem

00:40:52.300 at all.

00:40:53.820 So,

00:40:54.660 how seriously

00:40:55.760 am I going

00:40:56.220 to take

00:40:56.500 it?

00:40:58.100 So,

00:40:59.440 I think

00:41:00.240 cleaning up

00:41:00.800 the street

00:41:01.160 people was

00:41:01.860 the biggest

00:41:02.440 negotiating mistake

00:41:03.760 in the world,

00:41:04.900 because there's

00:41:05.780 no way that

00:41:06.340 she knows

00:41:06.880 how serious

00:41:07.540 we are

00:41:07.980 about this.

00:41:09.300 He cannot

00:41:09.940 know how

00:41:11.340 deadly serious

00:41:12.220 we are about

00:41:12.940 fentanyl.

00:41:14.180 And he also

00:41:14.900 doesn't know

00:41:15.620 there's something

00:41:16.680 about the

00:41:17.340 American character,

00:41:19.160 which is,

00:41:21.140 we will,

00:41:21.680 we will

00:41:22.320 bend,

00:41:24.020 and we'll

00:41:24.420 bend,

00:41:25.720 and we'll

00:41:26.480 bend,

00:41:27.220 until we

00:41:29.240 don't.

00:41:29.620 And you're

00:41:31.800 not going

00:41:32.100 to see

00:41:32.320 the point

00:41:32.800 where we

00:41:33.820 stop

00:41:34.120 bending

00:41:34.520 until you're

00:41:36.200 really,

00:41:36.700 really going

00:41:37.120 to fucking

00:41:37.540 regret it.

00:41:39.160 That's the

00:41:40.140 American character.

00:41:41.600 We'd like

00:41:42.140 to be

00:41:42.440 flexible.

00:41:43.360 We'd like

00:41:43.740 to work

00:41:44.060 things out.

00:41:45.080 But once

00:41:45.820 we know

00:41:46.360 it's not

00:41:47.160 going to

00:41:47.380 work out,

00:41:48.540 you're

00:41:48.840 fucked.

00:41:50.400 Just know

00:41:51.020 that.

00:41:51.340 So there's

00:41:59.760 an argument

00:42:00.120 for TikTok

00:42:00.780 that is

00:42:02.300 free speech.

00:42:04.060 You've

00:42:04.320 heard the

00:42:04.580 argument.

00:42:05.600 Vivek says

00:42:06.180 it, I

00:42:06.400 think.

00:42:07.500 No,

00:42:07.740 Vivek says

00:42:08.220 we should

00:42:08.580 just use

00:42:09.000 it.

00:42:10.060 But there's

00:42:10.700 a free

00:42:11.020 speech

00:42:11.320 argument.

00:42:12.000 I think

00:42:12.220 Thomas

00:42:12.540 Massey

00:42:12.860 makes it.

00:42:13.860 Here's

00:42:14.260 what's

00:42:14.460 wrong

00:42:14.700 with that

00:42:15.020 argument.

00:42:16.560 The

00:42:17.160 free

00:42:17.440 speech

00:42:17.800 argument

00:42:18.160 for

00:42:18.400 TikTok

00:42:18.720 is

00:42:20.060 word

00:42:20.520 thinking.

00:42:21.340 It's

00:42:22.020 not

00:42:22.180 thinking

00:42:22.700 as in

00:42:23.760 reason

00:42:24.360 and logic

00:42:24.960 and facts.

00:42:26.120 It's

00:42:26.300 word

00:42:26.600 thinking.

00:42:27.480 In other

00:42:27.760 words,

00:42:28.120 you're

00:42:28.320 making a

00:42:29.380 decision

00:42:29.720 based on

00:42:30.220 the

00:42:30.400 definition

00:42:30.880 of a

00:42:31.280 word,

00:42:32.180 and that's

00:42:32.880 not

00:42:33.060 thinking.

00:42:34.360 So if

00:42:34.800 you say

00:42:35.240 TikTok

00:42:36.260 is free

00:42:36.880 speech,

00:42:37.620 then you're

00:42:38.320 already done

00:42:38.820 with the

00:42:39.120 thinking.

00:42:39.940 But there

00:42:40.280 wasn't any.

00:42:41.640 You just

00:42:42.000 said

00:42:42.280 definition,

00:42:43.680 free

00:42:43.880 speech.

00:42:44.880 TikTok

00:42:45.160 free

00:42:45.460 speech,

00:42:46.020 okay,

00:42:46.540 free

00:42:46.740 speech

00:42:47.120 carries all

00:42:48.000 the qualities

00:42:48.620 of protection,

00:42:50.020 so we're

00:42:50.320 done with

00:42:50.600 the

00:42:50.720 conversation.

00:42:51.340 That is

00:42:53.520 not logical,

00:42:54.800 that is

00:42:55.420 not reasonable,

00:42:56.300 and that is

00:42:57.020 well below

00:42:57.540 the Thomas

00:42:58.220 Massey level

00:42:59.060 of intellectual

00:43:00.020 investigation.

00:43:02.980 Here's what

00:43:03.720 would be

00:43:04.000 more accurate.

00:43:05.220 If you can

00:43:05.980 detach yourself

00:43:07.720 from the

00:43:08.540 definitional

00:43:09.780 way of

00:43:10.260 thinking,

00:43:10.780 you'd say

00:43:11.100 to yourself,

00:43:12.080 all right,

00:43:13.120 definitions

00:43:13.640 aside,

00:43:14.840 what is

00:43:15.420 this?

00:43:16.220 What's

00:43:16.520 happening?

00:43:16.840 And you

00:43:18.020 would say,

00:43:18.720 well,

00:43:19.000 okay,

00:43:19.400 there is

00:43:19.760 definitely

00:43:20.080 a free

00:43:20.480 speech element

00:43:21.120 to the

00:43:21.460 conversation.

00:43:22.600 No doubt

00:43:23.080 about it.

00:43:24.200 But is that

00:43:24.640 all?

00:43:25.680 No,

00:43:25.980 it's not

00:43:26.300 all.

00:43:26.520 It is a

00:43:27.360 military

00:43:28.040 weapon

00:43:28.700 that if

00:43:30.360 China has

00:43:30.900 not yet

00:43:31.480 used it

00:43:32.060 in a

00:43:32.380 military

00:43:32.700 way,

00:43:33.520 and it

00:43:34.020 feels like

00:43:34.580 they are,

00:43:35.520 they probably

00:43:35.980 are,

00:43:36.680 they certainly

00:43:37.260 could.

00:43:38.200 They just

00:43:38.580 have to push

00:43:39.080 one button,

00:43:40.060 literally,

00:43:40.580 one button,

00:43:41.700 and it's

00:43:42.020 actually labeled

00:43:42.700 heat.

00:43:43.980 And TikTok

00:43:44.360 has told us

00:43:45.100 this.

00:43:45.820 They can

00:43:46.160 make anything

00:43:46.740 trend by

00:43:48.000 pushing one

00:43:48.580 button called

00:43:49.140 heat.

00:43:50.460 So the

00:43:50.960 Chinese,

00:43:51.880 of course,

00:43:52.320 have control

00:43:53.060 over Chinese

00:43:53.740 companies.

00:43:54.420 They can

00:43:54.700 make them

00:43:55.120 push that

00:43:55.580 button on

00:43:56.120 any topic

00:43:56.600 they want.

00:43:57.660 Have they

00:43:58.020 already pushed

00:43:58.600 it on the

00:43:59.120 question of

00:43:59.680 the Palestinians

00:44:01.100 and the

00:44:01.880 Israeli

00:44:02.140 situation in

00:44:02.960 Hamas?

00:44:04.060 Probably.

00:44:05.840 It looks

00:44:06.600 like it.

00:44:08.100 So if you

00:44:08.820 say to

00:44:09.120 yourself,

00:44:09.680 this is a

00:44:10.500 homeland defense

00:44:11.960 question,

00:44:13.120 that has a

00:44:14.900 free speech

00:44:15.660 element to

00:44:16.360 it, you

00:44:17.700 can get to

00:44:18.260 the correct

00:44:18.680 decision.

00:44:19.620 Because now

00:44:20.000 you've considered

00:44:20.660 the entire

00:44:21.320 universe.

00:44:22.620 The safety,

00:44:24.080 the free

00:44:24.560 speech, and

00:44:25.920 you said,

00:44:26.440 okay, given

00:44:27.840 both of those

00:44:28.660 two competing

00:44:30.860 things, given

00:44:32.400 that we have

00:44:33.040 American-made

00:44:34.060 products that

00:44:34.780 could do the

00:44:35.260 same thing,

00:44:36.540 could get

00:44:37.080 you the same

00:44:37.540 level of free

00:44:38.160 speech, etc.,

00:44:39.220 you should

00:44:40.180 treat it more

00:44:41.020 as a military

00:44:41.860 threat or a

00:44:42.900 threat to

00:44:43.280 the cohesion

00:44:44.440 of the

00:44:45.080 society, which

00:44:46.180 would be a

00:44:47.420 military problem

00:44:48.220 because we'd

00:44:49.480 fall apart.

00:44:51.300 Now, this

00:44:52.880 is rare that

00:44:53.920 I would

00:44:54.480 disagree with

00:44:55.160 Thomas Massey

00:44:55.900 on a logic

00:44:56.740 question.

00:44:58.460 And I get

00:44:59.380 that he's

00:44:59.720 being pure

00:45:02.220 to the

00:45:02.580 Constitution,

00:45:03.720 but the

00:45:04.560 mistake is to

00:45:05.340 say it's a

00:45:05.860 free speech

00:45:06.360 question and

00:45:07.240 then be done

00:45:07.740 with it.

00:45:08.460 It is free

00:45:09.040 speech.

00:45:10.140 It's also a

00:45:11.060 military question

00:45:11.880 and the

00:45:12.500 military always

00:45:13.540 overrides

00:45:14.860 free speech.

00:45:16.240 Would you

00:45:16.760 agree with

00:45:17.120 that statement?

00:45:18.300 A military

00:45:18.960 necessity

00:45:19.580 should, if

00:45:21.860 you're being

00:45:22.240 smart, override

00:45:23.880 free speech.

00:45:25.240 Now, it's

00:45:25.600 dangerous.

00:45:26.640 It's dangerous

00:45:27.460 because then

00:45:27.880 somebody can say

00:45:28.500 it's a military

00:45:29.060 necessity.

00:45:30.460 Well, in the

00:45:31.020 time of war,

00:45:32.480 do you think

00:45:32.880 all the soldiers

00:45:33.940 get to tell

00:45:34.740 you what

00:45:34.980 they're doing?

00:45:36.440 Let me ask

00:45:37.160 you more

00:45:37.400 specifically.

00:45:38.920 In a hot

00:45:39.700 war, should

00:45:41.680 the soldiers

00:45:42.220 in the field

00:45:42.760 have their

00:45:43.160 smartphone,

00:45:44.020 because they've

00:45:44.340 got free

00:45:44.740 speech, remember,

00:45:46.040 and should

00:45:46.400 they be able

00:45:46.780 to call the

00:45:47.200 New York

00:45:47.420 Times and

00:45:47.880 tell them

00:45:48.280 what battle

00:45:48.960 they're in

00:45:49.340 and what

00:45:49.580 they plan

00:45:49.980 next with

00:45:51.020 their free

00:45:51.400 speech?

00:45:52.720 No.

00:45:53.640 There's not a

00:45:54.160 single person

00:45:54.760 who thinks

00:45:55.240 that a soldier

00:45:55.900 has free

00:45:56.880 speech during

00:45:57.540 a battle.

00:45:58.520 Why?

00:46:00.040 We love

00:46:00.720 free speech.

00:46:01.920 Why don't

00:46:02.280 you like it?

00:46:04.140 There's some

00:46:04.740 people saying

00:46:05.280 yes.

00:46:06.140 The soldier

00:46:06.540 should tell

00:46:06.960 you where

00:46:07.240 their troops

00:46:07.620 are.

00:46:08.960 Seriously.

00:46:10.780 Really?

00:46:11.840 This is the

00:46:12.600 really test.

00:46:13.360 Give me a

00:46:13.900 moment.

00:46:14.240 I've got to

00:46:14.520 do the

00:46:14.760 really test.

00:46:16.040 Really?

00:46:16.960 You think

00:46:17.300 the soldier

00:46:17.860 in a battle

00:46:18.700 should be

00:46:19.800 able to

00:46:20.160 tell the

00:46:20.640 other side

00:46:21.340 what they're

00:46:22.340 doing?

00:46:23.300 Really?

00:46:24.680 No, you

00:46:25.340 don't believe

00:46:25.700 that.

00:46:27.820 So, let's

00:46:29.500 take it out

00:46:29.980 of the free

00:46:30.360 speech realm,

00:46:31.200 because while

00:46:31.740 it is free

00:46:32.260 speech, there's

00:46:34.060 a far bigger

00:46:35.000 question there,

00:46:35.860 and we're

00:46:36.180 getting that

00:46:36.620 question wrong.

00:46:37.900 That's what

00:46:38.420 word thinking

00:46:39.260 gets you.

00:46:40.440 There's a

00:46:40.800 new poll that

00:46:41.460 found that

00:46:41.800 90% of

00:46:42.500 women find

00:46:43.120 bald men

00:46:43.680 attractive.

00:46:44.780 They did

00:46:45.400 not ask,

00:46:46.440 do you find

00:46:46.940 bald men who

00:46:47.800 wear corrective

00:46:48.680 lenses especially

00:46:50.280 attractive?

00:46:51.000 I think the

00:46:51.560 answer is

00:46:51.880 obviously yes,

00:46:52.700 but they're

00:46:55.200 saying that

00:46:55.600 the women

00:46:55.940 like, and

00:46:56.580 gave some

00:46:56.920 examples.

00:46:58.480 So, Prince

00:46:59.960 William, they

00:47:01.240 like him, despite

00:47:02.060 his shaved

00:47:02.520 head, and

00:47:03.460 Vin Diesel, and

00:47:04.900 name some

00:47:05.740 others.

00:47:07.040 And I'm not

00:47:09.440 going to doubt

00:47:10.220 science, or

00:47:11.900 doubt such a

00:47:13.640 well-made and

00:47:14.460 constructed survey,

00:47:15.420 money, but I

00:47:17.300 have to ask

00:47:17.780 myself this

00:47:18.420 question.

00:47:20.280 Do women

00:47:21.140 like bald men

00:47:23.060 who don't have

00:47:23.960 power and

00:47:24.480 money?

00:47:25.240 Or is

00:47:25.840 only the

00:47:26.380 bald men who

00:47:27.940 are really

00:47:28.360 rich and

00:47:28.820 powerful?

00:47:30.540 Because I

00:47:31.280 feel like if

00:47:31.860 they only like

00:47:32.400 the bald men

00:47:33.100 who are rich

00:47:33.560 and powerful,

00:47:34.760 it might not

00:47:35.560 be about the

00:47:36.160 hair exactly.

00:47:37.900 Just putting

00:47:38.460 that out there.

00:47:39.580 Yeah.

00:47:39.760 The Rock.

00:47:41.580 Do they like

00:47:42.160 The Rock?

00:47:44.660 Would they

00:47:45.460 like him if

00:47:46.060 he were not

00:47:47.080 successful, and

00:47:48.400 didn't have

00:47:48.820 muscles like

00:47:50.240 hell?

00:47:51.560 Yeah.

00:47:52.060 They like

00:47:52.380 Jeff Bezos.

00:47:53.440 Yeah.

00:47:56.500 There was

00:47:57.280 some relationship

00:47:59.360 person on

00:48:00.340 Instagram who

00:48:01.300 was saying that

00:48:02.660 men pick based

00:48:03.900 on looks,

00:48:05.100 because men

00:48:05.860 are just tuned

00:48:06.800 to looks, but

00:48:08.000 looks are not,

00:48:08.640 if you think

00:48:10.060 about it, looks

00:48:11.780 are highly

00:48:12.240 correlated with

00:48:12.940 health.

00:48:14.200 And if the

00:48:14.660 men are looking

00:48:15.260 for a health

00:48:16.440 signal,

00:48:19.260 attractiveness is

00:48:20.260 a pretty good

00:48:20.720 health signal.

00:48:22.000 So that makes

00:48:22.660 sense from a

00:48:23.260 biological evolutionary

00:48:24.360 perspective.

00:48:25.680 But then

00:48:27.740 women pick

00:48:28.560 men, this

00:48:30.580 was one

00:48:30.980 person's take

00:48:32.200 on it, based

00:48:34.080 on how men

00:48:34.820 interact with

00:48:36.000 his environment.

00:48:36.700 environment.

00:48:37.780 They say the

00:48:38.620 most important

00:48:39.220 thing is how

00:48:39.680 they interact

00:48:40.360 with their

00:48:40.700 environment, and

00:48:41.820 specifically how

00:48:43.320 their environment

00:48:44.080 interacts with

00:48:44.920 them.

00:48:46.200 So the belief

00:48:48.160 here is that if

00:48:49.540 a woman starts

00:48:50.500 to date a guy,

00:48:52.040 and then she

00:48:52.520 notices the way

00:48:53.440 the guy's

00:48:54.100 friends sort of

00:48:55.960 react to him,

00:48:56.720 and do what he

00:48:57.220 wants, and kind

00:48:58.300 of listen to him

00:48:58.960 and stuff, and

00:48:59.860 maybe even other

00:49:00.760 women want to be

00:49:02.540 around him, and

00:49:04.040 maybe he can make

00:49:05.760 things happen in

00:49:06.500 the business

00:49:06.960 world, or he

00:49:07.920 has some

00:49:08.240 influence in

00:49:09.020 politics or

00:49:09.680 something.

00:49:10.500 So the more

00:49:12.220 a man can

00:49:13.660 control his

00:49:14.520 environment to

00:49:16.280 suit his

00:49:17.220 preferences, the

00:49:18.740 more attractive

00:49:19.260 he is.

00:49:20.500 And that

00:49:20.960 sounds right to

00:49:21.600 me, because

00:49:22.700 that gives you

00:49:23.400 more than just

00:49:24.420 the rich people,

00:49:26.460 because there

00:49:26.900 are non-rich

00:49:27.760 cult leaders and

00:49:29.800 stuff like that

00:49:30.520 that just seem

00:49:31.780 to be able to

00:49:32.280 influence their

00:49:32.900 environment, and

00:49:34.500 that makes them

00:49:34.980 attractive.

00:49:36.640 Trump should

00:49:37.340 shave his

00:49:37.760 head.

00:49:40.600 I've been

00:49:41.180 saying it for

00:49:41.660 a while.

00:49:42.660 I said it

00:49:43.200 before the

00:49:43.620 first election

00:49:44.260 in 2016.

00:49:45.300 If he shaved

00:49:45.980 his head, he'd

00:49:46.640 win easily,

00:49:47.440 although he

00:49:48.780 might look more

00:49:49.740 scary.

00:49:50.860 Actually, it

00:49:51.260 might make him

00:49:52.060 look scarier, so

00:49:53.820 he'd have a

00:49:54.900 skinhead problem

00:49:55.640 then.

00:49:56.740 Yeah, maybe

00:49:57.140 not.

00:49:59.040 All right.

00:50:00.240 Rasmussen says

00:50:01.320 that in a

00:50:01.940 two-way contest,

00:50:03.600 according to

00:50:04.400 polls, in a

00:50:05.740 two-way contest

00:50:06.480 that Biden

00:50:09.120 and Trump

00:50:09.860 would be

00:50:11.140 pretty close.

00:50:14.700 Trump would

00:50:15.400 get, let's

00:50:16.220 say, Donald

00:50:17.540 Trump would

00:50:17.940 get 46%

00:50:19.380 of likely

00:50:20.120 voters, and

00:50:21.520 Biden would

00:50:22.000 get, I'm

00:50:23.620 sorry, opposite.

00:50:24.380 46% would be

00:50:25.240 for Biden and

00:50:25.820 42% for Trump.

00:50:26.640 Now, that's

00:50:28.160 with the general

00:50:28.840 vote.

00:50:29.960 So if you look

00:50:30.740 at just the

00:50:31.480 overall vote,

00:50:32.540 vote, which

00:50:32.940 is not what

00:50:33.500 makes a

00:50:33.940 president, the

00:50:34.980 swing votes

00:50:35.600 are the only

00:50:35.960 ones that

00:50:36.280 matter in

00:50:36.820 our system,

00:50:37.480 but the

00:50:38.200 overall vote

00:50:38.980 would put

00:50:40.500 Biden above

00:50:42.740 Trump.

00:50:44.100 Now, that's

00:50:44.660 not telling you

00:50:45.520 who wins,

00:50:46.000 that just

00:50:46.620 tells you the

00:50:47.120 overall vote.

00:50:49.000 But that

00:50:50.220 reverses if you

00:50:51.420 throw RFK

00:50:53.300 Jr. into the

00:50:54.060 mix, and he

00:50:54.800 is in the

00:50:55.180 mix.

00:50:55.440 So in a

00:50:56.600 three-way

00:50:57.040 election, Kennedy

00:51:00.500 would get 12%

00:51:01.560 of the vote, and

00:51:03.320 Trump would beat

00:51:04.720 Biden in the

00:51:05.580 popular vote by

00:51:06.660 one percentage

00:51:07.720 point.

00:51:09.420 Now, imagine

00:51:10.340 if Trump won

00:51:11.280 the popular

00:51:11.960 vote in a

00:51:14.020 three-way race.

00:51:15.600 That would be a

00:51:16.560 hell of an

00:51:16.940 argument, wouldn't

00:51:17.540 it?

00:51:18.620 Because if he

00:51:19.900 loses the

00:51:20.540 popular vote but

00:51:21.560 wins in the

00:51:22.840 electoral college,

00:51:24.200 it never looks

00:51:25.000 legitimate to

00:51:25.800 the team that

00:51:26.320 lost.

00:51:27.700 They kind of

00:51:28.280 need to win.

00:51:29.640 You need the

00:51:30.340 president to win

00:51:31.240 both the

00:51:31.880 popular and

00:51:33.100 the electoral

00:51:33.560 college to

00:51:34.680 feel completely

00:51:35.600 legitimate.

00:51:37.380 And he might

00:51:37.800 do it.

00:51:38.800 There's a

00:51:39.760 path there.

00:51:41.220 So we'll

00:51:42.240 see.

00:51:46.280 But let's

00:51:47.040 look a little

00:51:47.540 bit more about

00:51:48.220 that.

00:51:49.300 You saw the

00:51:49.940 other day Van

00:51:50.780 Jones was on

00:51:51.540 CNN, and

00:51:52.240 there was a

00:51:53.540 stunning poll

00:51:54.480 that said

00:51:54.980 that Trump

00:51:56.420 would win

00:51:57.360 over Biden

00:51:58.060 with black

00:51:59.500 men by

00:52:00.480 three points.

00:52:02.620 Let me say

00:52:03.080 that again.

00:52:04.500 Current polling

00:52:05.320 suggests that

00:52:07.720 Trump would

00:52:08.460 win the

00:52:10.020 black male

00:52:10.840 vote if they

00:52:12.320 held the

00:52:12.680 election today.

00:52:15.520 Stunning is

00:52:16.480 right.

00:52:18.300 Now, do you

00:52:20.460 know anybody

00:52:21.120 who predicted

00:52:21.960 this outcome?

00:52:22.660 Did anybody

00:52:25.420 predict this

00:52:26.140 outcome?

00:52:28.760 I did.

00:52:30.320 In 2016.

00:52:32.380 I predicted

00:52:33.200 that he would

00:52:33.840 someday win the

00:52:34.540 black vote.

00:52:35.720 Now, at the

00:52:36.600 same time, I was

00:52:37.340 predicting that

00:52:39.000 the Democrats

00:52:39.560 would become

00:52:40.280 more the

00:52:40.860 female vote

00:52:42.040 of all females,

00:52:43.640 and the

00:52:44.620 Republicans would

00:52:45.660 be the male

00:52:46.380 vote of all

00:52:46.960 males.

00:52:47.300 So if you

00:52:47.900 put those

00:52:48.340 two predictions

00:52:48.920 together, I

00:52:50.520 predicted that

00:52:51.320 black men would

00:52:52.420 start to favor

00:52:53.060 Trump over

00:52:53.640 time.

00:52:55.880 Is that one

00:52:57.040 of the craziest,

00:52:58.620 best predictions

00:52:59.300 you've ever seen

00:53:00.020 in your life?

00:53:01.360 Do you know

00:53:01.720 what people said

00:53:02.320 in 2016 when I

00:53:03.480 said that?

00:53:05.140 Absolutely

00:53:05.620 crazy.

00:53:07.420 Here we are.

00:53:09.560 If you put

00:53:10.360 together the

00:53:10.900 number of things

00:53:11.380 I've predicted

00:53:12.900 that are actually

00:53:14.020 crazy, that are

00:53:16.180 current reality,

00:53:17.680 it's a pretty

00:53:18.520 weird, surprising

00:53:19.820 list.

00:53:20.820 But that's near

00:53:21.420 the top.

00:53:23.600 How many of you

00:53:24.160 thought that was

00:53:24.660 going to happen?

00:53:27.200 Scott has

00:53:27.840 major white

00:53:28.500 guilt.

00:53:29.720 E.J.

00:53:30.400 Karen says,

00:53:31.080 Scott has

00:53:31.560 major white

00:53:32.260 guilt.

00:53:34.340 You may have

00:53:35.200 missed the

00:53:35.660 last nine

00:53:36.180 months.

00:53:41.060 My critics

00:53:42.000 have taken a

00:53:43.100 weird characteristic.

00:53:45.000 They don't know

00:53:45.520 anything about

00:53:46.160 me.

00:53:47.020 You need to do

00:53:47.940 a little bit of

00:53:49.080 research before

00:53:51.040 coming at me.

00:53:52.380 You've got to do

00:53:53.060 better than white

00:53:53.680 guilt.

00:53:54.620 Because if there

00:53:55.280 were a poster

00:53:56.880 child for the

00:53:59.040 person who is

00:54:00.320 cured of any

00:54:01.140 white guilt,

00:54:02.400 that would be

00:54:02.920 me.

00:54:03.680 I would be on

00:54:04.240 the poster of

00:54:05.120 people who don't

00:54:05.800 have it.

00:54:09.800 All right.

00:54:10.500 So maybe you

00:54:11.060 need to catch up.

00:54:11.800 You're about

00:54:12.040 nine months

00:54:12.480 behind.

00:54:12.780 Israel owns

00:54:20.620 the sky.

00:54:21.440 Here's another

00:54:21.860 thing I was

00:54:22.420 telling you was

00:54:23.000 probably true.

00:54:24.240 I was saying

00:54:26.380 that Gaza

00:54:26.920 doesn't get much

00:54:27.700 cloud cover,

00:54:29.880 and given that

00:54:30.720 drones and

00:54:31.380 satellites exist,

00:54:32.800 can't Israel

00:54:33.680 look down on

00:54:35.300 the war thing

00:54:36.420 and have this

00:54:37.020 insane advantage

00:54:38.440 because they can

00:54:39.280 see from above

00:54:40.060 all the time?

00:54:40.780 Well, it turns

00:54:41.800 out that's

00:54:42.280 exactly the

00:54:42.840 situation.

00:54:43.500 So they have

00:54:43.840 a combination

00:54:44.360 of mostly

00:54:45.740 drones, I

00:54:46.740 think, but

00:54:47.540 there might be

00:54:47.940 some satellite

00:54:48.400 stuff.

00:54:49.120 And they've

00:54:49.400 got a control

00:54:50.020 center that

00:54:51.480 apparently has

00:54:52.120 good enough

00:54:52.600 software, so

00:54:53.880 they basically

00:54:54.460 have an above

00:54:55.520 ground look at

00:54:56.580 everything.

00:54:57.400 They can see

00:54:57.900 every bad guy

00:54:58.760 coming out of

00:54:59.400 every hole in

00:55:00.860 the ground.

00:55:01.300 Israel is

00:55:05.640 playing chess

00:55:06.440 because they're

00:55:08.680 moving their

00:55:09.260 strong pieces

00:55:10.100 based on the

00:55:10.760 board, and

00:55:13.160 Hamas is

00:55:13.840 playing whack-a-mole,

00:55:15.320 but they're the

00:55:16.400 moles.

00:55:17.940 So they're not

00:55:18.840 playing the same

00:55:19.480 game anymore.

00:55:20.940 If you think

00:55:21.760 it's like a war,

00:55:23.280 well, it's kind

00:55:24.540 of a war because

00:55:25.260 they're shooting

00:55:25.700 and killing.

00:55:26.940 But Israel is

00:55:28.060 definitely playing

00:55:28.980 chess, and

00:55:30.720 Hamas is

00:55:31.280 playing whack-a-mole

00:55:32.280 as the moles.

00:55:34.380 Now, sometimes

00:55:35.580 the moles win

00:55:36.360 in whack-a-mole,

00:55:37.400 right?

00:55:37.740 I mean, you

00:55:38.240 don't always get

00:55:38.800 all the moles.

00:55:39.440 That's why it's

00:55:39.860 hard.

00:55:40.600 But it's weird

00:55:41.640 that they're not

00:55:42.160 even in the same

00:55:42.940 game, much less

00:55:44.680 winning a game.

00:55:46.680 All right.

00:55:49.600 Here's my

00:55:50.340 provocative take

00:55:51.820 that I said

00:55:53.820 today.

00:55:54.120 I'm just going

00:55:54.520 to read this.

00:55:56.140 because I want

00:55:57.560 to get it

00:55:57.840 exactly right.

00:55:58.860 It took me a

00:55:59.280 long time to

00:55:59.740 write it.

00:56:00.140 This was the

00:56:00.680 post I did

00:56:01.240 today.

00:56:03.240 I said that

00:56:03.760 men, on

00:56:04.560 average, and

00:56:05.460 the on

00:56:05.980 average is

00:56:06.540 going to do

00:56:06.880 a lot of

00:56:07.200 work here,

00:56:07.980 so don't

00:56:08.600 forget the

00:56:09.040 on average

00:56:09.580 part.

00:56:09.980 We're not

00:56:10.240 talking about

00:56:10.700 individuals.

00:56:11.920 So men, on

00:56:12.440 average, are

00:56:12.920 protectors and

00:56:13.700 hunters, and

00:56:14.820 women, on

00:56:15.660 average, are

00:56:17.140 nurturers.

00:56:18.640 Are you with

00:56:19.120 me so far?

00:56:21.300 We know

00:56:21.940 individuals are

00:56:22.780 all over the

00:56:23.240 place, but on

00:56:23.840 average,

00:56:24.260 biologically, we

00:56:26.740 evolve, so men

00:56:27.820 hunt and kill

00:56:28.560 stuff and

00:56:29.180 protect, and

00:56:30.480 women are more

00:56:31.720 nurturers, and

00:56:32.840 of course,

00:56:33.260 individuals could

00:56:34.020 be all over the

00:56:34.560 place.

00:56:35.600 So if you

00:56:36.140 accept that, then

00:56:37.000 I'll go on.

00:56:38.160 And I said that

00:56:38.900 when the

00:56:39.240 nurturers gain

00:56:40.140 sufficient political

00:56:41.100 power, the

00:56:42.020 system falls

00:56:43.000 apart because the

00:56:44.460 ratio of protecting

00:56:45.580 to nurturing gets

00:56:46.660 out of whack, and

00:56:48.660 that's where we are

00:56:49.300 now.

00:56:49.600 Now, I'm not

00:56:51.480 saying that women

00:56:52.200 should not vote.

00:56:53.360 That's somebody

00:56:53.780 else's.

00:56:54.380 That's Pearl's

00:56:55.180 thing.

00:56:56.360 And Pearl can

00:56:56.940 say that.

00:56:57.640 I'm not saying

00:56:58.160 that.

00:56:58.880 I'm saying that

00:56:59.800 when you get an

00:57:00.980 imbalance of

00:57:02.020 nurturers to

00:57:03.200 protectors, then

00:57:06.660 your system has

00:57:07.980 a problem.

00:57:08.740 Now, I would

00:57:09.220 imagine it would

00:57:09.700 be the same the

00:57:10.260 other way, right?

00:57:11.020 If you had too

00:57:12.180 much protecting and

00:57:13.560 not enough

00:57:13.940 nurturing, that's

00:57:15.700 probably a bad

00:57:16.300 society as well.

00:57:17.340 So I'm saying

00:57:18.120 there should be a

00:57:18.680 balance.

00:57:20.280 I'm not saying

00:57:21.040 you should have

00:57:21.500 none of one, or

00:57:22.320 one's the good

00:57:22.860 one, and one's

00:57:23.580 the bad one.

00:57:24.160 Nothing like that.

00:57:24.940 There's no

00:57:25.360 judgment here.

00:57:26.580 No judgment at

00:57:27.360 all.

00:57:28.020 I'm just saying

00:57:28.580 that if you take

00:57:29.180 these two things

00:57:29.900 which exist in

00:57:31.400 every society, and

00:57:33.040 you get them out

00:57:33.680 of whack, it

00:57:35.340 might be the

00:57:35.880 suboptimal

00:57:36.600 combination.

00:57:38.960 And I think

00:57:39.400 that's where we

00:57:39.940 are now.

00:57:40.840 We're at a

00:57:41.480 suboptimal

00:57:42.080 combination.

00:57:43.720 And I go on,

00:57:44.900 and I say,

00:57:45.440 Western women

00:57:46.060 protesting in favor

00:57:47.040 of the Palestinian

00:57:47.660 people is a

00:57:48.380 perfect example.

00:57:49.780 The nurturers

00:57:50.500 don't know how

00:57:51.500 to protect

00:57:52.060 themselves or

00:57:53.620 anyone else.

00:57:54.900 Again, it's on

00:57:55.940 average.

00:57:56.540 There are plenty

00:57:57.080 of individuals who

00:57:58.060 are smart and

00:57:59.100 know what's

00:57:59.420 going on.

00:58:00.680 Right?

00:58:03.260 Who favors the

00:58:04.440 weak on crime

00:58:05.160 district attorneys?

00:58:06.780 And who favors

00:58:07.800 the weak border

00:58:08.480 security?

00:58:11.200 Mostly women,

00:58:13.120 and the men

00:58:14.540 that those women

00:58:15.260 control.

00:58:15.800 are called

00:58:17.520 Democrats.

00:58:19.940 Now, if you

00:58:21.740 don't buy into

00:58:22.940 the fact that

00:58:23.700 Democrat women

00:58:24.800 are the

00:58:25.660 dominant force

00:58:26.460 in the Democrat

00:58:27.620 party, you need

00:58:29.120 to pay attention

00:58:29.700 a little bit

00:58:30.140 more.

00:58:30.780 Because they

00:58:31.560 clearly are.

00:58:32.700 And the men

00:58:33.440 are clearly

00:58:34.480 accommodating the

00:58:35.540 women.

00:58:36.760 All right?

00:58:37.100 So you can use

00:58:38.060 your insulting

00:58:38.720 beta male,

00:58:40.120 blah, blah, blah.

00:58:41.140 There's more

00:58:41.880 LGBTQ, blah, blah,

00:58:43.480 blah.

00:58:43.620 I'm not making

00:58:44.580 a judgment call.

00:58:45.920 I'm not saying

00:58:46.760 that anybody is

00:58:47.720 good or bad or

00:58:48.660 that they have

00:58:49.140 more value or

00:58:49.900 less value.

00:58:50.680 I'm just

00:58:51.300 describing.

00:58:52.740 It's just a

00:58:53.560 description.

00:58:55.540 And so it's

00:58:57.720 very clear that

00:58:59.360 the level of

00:59:00.420 political power

00:59:01.160 that women have

00:59:02.060 and the control

00:59:03.500 that they have

00:59:04.000 over the men

00:59:04.580 in the Democrat

00:59:05.260 party creates

00:59:07.000 this imbalance

00:59:07.660 of nurturing to

00:59:08.760 protecting.

00:59:09.880 And you can see

00:59:10.420 it everywhere.

00:59:11.720 Right?

00:59:11.820 It's obvious

00:59:12.400 everywhere.

00:59:13.960 It's obvious

00:59:14.760 when you see

00:59:15.440 shoplifters walk

00:59:16.720 in and walk

00:59:17.260 out with

00:59:18.320 goods.

00:59:19.420 Those are men

00:59:20.260 not protecting.

00:59:21.940 And it's because

00:59:22.560 the nurturers are

00:59:23.680 protecting the

00:59:24.400 criminal because

00:59:26.000 they're nurturers.

00:59:26.780 It's a little

00:59:27.180 over-nurturing.

00:59:30.640 And so just to

00:59:32.000 make everybody

00:59:32.820 mad, I said

00:59:34.400 we'd all be

00:59:35.340 better off.

00:59:36.920 Now, be

00:59:38.520 careful about

00:59:39.240 this choice

00:59:40.560 of words.

00:59:41.040 I chose

00:59:42.400 this very

00:59:42.900 carefully.

00:59:43.740 I said we'd

00:59:44.660 all be better

00:59:45.300 off.

00:59:46.640 Now, I'm going

00:59:47.340 to tell you

00:59:47.720 what we'd all

00:59:48.180 be better off

00:59:48.820 with.

00:59:49.460 Here's what I'm

00:59:50.060 not saying,

00:59:51.100 but some of you

00:59:51.760 seem to be

00:59:52.260 hearing, that

00:59:53.660 you should do

00:59:54.480 this.

00:59:55.680 I didn't say

00:59:56.140 that.

00:59:57.360 I'm not saying

00:59:58.140 what you should

00:59:58.740 do.

00:59:59.780 Right?

01:00:00.340 So this is not

01:00:01.100 a recommendation

01:00:01.760 for what you

01:00:02.760 should do.

01:00:04.420 Just get that

01:00:05.340 clear.

01:00:05.980 I'm saying what

01:00:06.680 would be better.

01:00:07.260 But lots

01:00:09.580 of times, you

01:00:10.280 might have a

01:00:10.720 reason to not

01:00:11.360 do the thing

01:00:11.820 that's better.

01:00:12.780 And when I

01:00:13.100 say better, let

01:00:14.700 me be clear

01:00:15.240 about that.

01:00:16.540 Better for the

01:00:17.500 cohesion of

01:00:18.360 society, not

01:00:20.080 better for the

01:00:20.940 baby in question,

01:00:22.580 not necessarily

01:00:23.240 better for the

01:00:23.760 woman or anybody

01:00:24.320 else.

01:00:24.900 So not for the

01:00:25.560 individuals.

01:00:27.120 So if you're

01:00:27.560 arguing for the

01:00:28.180 individuals, that's

01:00:29.240 a different

01:00:29.500 argument.

01:00:30.180 For society,

01:00:31.440 wouldn't it be

01:00:32.000 good if we

01:00:32.560 weren't tearing

01:00:33.220 each other apart

01:00:34.020 about the issue

01:00:35.000 of abortion?

01:00:36.660 So I think

01:00:37.220 women should,

01:00:38.480 let me get rid

01:00:40.800 of the should.

01:00:41.740 Here's what I

01:00:42.280 said.

01:00:42.720 We'd all be

01:00:43.200 better off if

01:00:43.800 men abstained

01:00:44.520 from abortion

01:00:45.120 law decisions

01:00:45.860 and women

01:00:46.360 abstained from

01:00:47.100 national defense

01:00:47.980 decisions.

01:00:51.160 Better off.

01:00:53.100 Now, people

01:00:53.660 said, but Scott,

01:00:55.180 I'm definitely

01:00:55.860 going to have an

01:00:56.400 opinion on

01:00:57.180 abortion because

01:00:57.840 it's life or

01:00:58.360 death and it's

01:00:58.880 about a dead

01:00:59.420 baby.

01:01:00.420 Go ahead.

01:01:02.060 Did you hear

01:01:02.840 me saying not

01:01:03.780 to?

01:01:05.000 You may have

01:01:05.780 imagined you

01:01:06.420 heard it, but I

01:01:07.080 didn't say that

01:01:07.640 because you live

01:01:08.840 in a free country

01:01:09.480 and you can have

01:01:11.020 any opinion you

01:01:11.760 want and you

01:01:12.840 could be trying

01:01:13.320 to save babies

01:01:14.120 as hard as you

01:01:14.720 want and I

01:01:16.160 would say, okay,

01:01:17.140 that's you acting

01:01:17.960 on your conscience.

01:01:19.960 Do I have a

01:01:20.820 problem with you

01:01:21.500 acting on your

01:01:22.200 conscience?

01:01:23.720 No, I don't

01:01:25.000 because that's

01:01:25.920 basically a human

01:01:26.860 thing.

01:01:27.780 But is it

01:01:28.800 necessarily going

01:01:29.740 to get you to

01:01:30.160 the best result?

01:01:31.660 Well, that's

01:01:32.140 where we differ.

01:01:32.740 So you can

01:01:34.420 fight on

01:01:35.060 principle to

01:01:35.920 save every

01:01:37.400 baby's life and

01:01:38.440 I would say to

01:01:38.980 you, well, there's

01:01:40.320 a principle and

01:01:41.020 there's you following

01:01:41.700 your principle.

01:01:43.280 I don't hate that.

01:01:45.120 I can't hate you

01:01:45.940 having a principle,

01:01:47.600 sticking to it,

01:01:48.720 and then acting on

01:01:49.660 your principle.

01:01:50.880 So if you ever

01:01:51.880 think that I said

01:01:52.760 don't do that,

01:01:54.460 well, you're

01:01:54.940 hearing something

01:01:55.460 I'm not saying.

01:01:56.960 Everybody does

01:01:57.940 what they need to

01:01:59.980 do in their

01:02:00.440 situation and

01:02:01.100 there's no free

01:02:01.660 will anyway.

01:02:03.680 So it's not a

01:02:05.580 criticism and

01:02:07.020 nobody is telling

01:02:07.800 you what you

01:02:08.500 should do.

01:02:09.640 At least I'm

01:02:10.100 not.

01:02:11.100 I'm observing

01:02:12.020 that if we

01:02:14.380 stay with the

01:02:15.140 fight, then

01:02:16.560 you get the

01:02:17.100 fight.

01:02:18.820 But if you

01:02:20.280 let women

01:02:20.840 work it out,

01:02:22.800 would that get

01:02:24.880 you to your

01:02:25.800 preferred outcome?

01:02:27.880 Maybe not.

01:02:28.820 So if all

01:02:31.040 that matters

01:02:31.460 to you is

01:02:31.920 your preferred

01:02:32.480 outcome,

01:02:33.620 then you

01:02:34.620 would want

01:02:35.020 men and

01:02:35.480 women to be

01:02:36.000 involved if

01:02:36.600 you're a

01:02:36.860 man,

01:02:37.680 because then

01:02:38.040 your voice

01:02:38.560 gets involved.

01:02:41.340 If your

01:02:42.220 interest, as

01:02:42.960 mine is,

01:02:44.380 is to,

01:02:45.100 this is more

01:02:45.800 of a decision

01:02:46.380 making thing

01:02:47.060 than, it

01:02:47.980 sounds like a

01:02:48.760 preference,

01:02:51.880 but I'm

01:02:52.240 describing how

01:02:52.860 to make a

01:02:53.240 good decision,

01:02:53.980 just in

01:02:54.400 general.

01:02:54.720 if you

01:02:56.460 have, if

01:02:57.040 there's

01:02:57.260 something about

01:02:57.820 your decision

01:02:58.380 that can't

01:02:58.980 change, then

01:03:00.920 you should go

01:03:01.360 to the next

01:03:01.800 factor, right?

01:03:03.880 So you're

01:03:04.480 never going to

01:03:04.920 change the

01:03:05.360 fact that half

01:03:05.960 the country

01:03:06.420 think that

01:03:06.920 abortion is

01:03:07.480 murder, and

01:03:08.860 half, or

01:03:09.560 whatever the

01:03:10.000 numbers are,

01:03:10.620 but you know

01:03:10.960 what I'm

01:03:11.160 talking about,

01:03:11.740 and some

01:03:12.320 portion think

01:03:12.940 it's not.

01:03:14.680 If that

01:03:15.380 won't change,

01:03:16.800 then you move

01:03:17.700 to the next

01:03:18.260 factor that

01:03:18.860 matters, because

01:03:19.900 you can't

01:03:20.280 change it.

01:03:21.340 So stop

01:03:21.960 changing the

01:03:22.540 thing that

01:03:22.840 won't change.

01:03:23.440 We will

01:03:24.060 disagree

01:03:24.560 forever about

01:03:26.540 this question.

01:03:27.800 So you move

01:03:28.520 up to the

01:03:28.840 next question,

01:03:29.520 how do you

01:03:29.920 live together?

01:03:31.360 How do you

01:03:31.960 reach a

01:03:32.280 decision where

01:03:32.880 half the

01:03:33.880 country can

01:03:34.380 hate it and

01:03:35.520 still respect

01:03:36.160 it?

01:03:38.220 To do that,

01:03:39.780 you want the

01:03:40.340 people who

01:03:40.760 are closest to

01:03:42.440 the decision,

01:03:43.360 have the most

01:03:43.980 skin in the

01:03:44.600 game, to

01:03:45.740 have a

01:03:46.040 dominant

01:03:46.420 opinion.

01:03:47.640 That's

01:03:47.940 women.

01:03:48.800 They have

01:03:49.140 the most

01:03:49.420 skin in the

01:03:49.920 game.

01:03:51.200 Now you

01:03:51.560 say, but

01:03:52.060 they'll make

01:03:53.420 the wrong

01:03:53.840 decision.

01:03:55.700 According to

01:03:56.400 who?

01:03:58.380 Where do

01:03:59.060 you get that

01:03:59.440 from?

01:04:00.240 How do you

01:04:00.660 know what

01:04:00.940 the right

01:04:01.240 decision is?

01:04:02.160 The only

01:04:02.640 thing you

01:04:03.020 know for

01:04:03.380 sure is

01:04:03.740 your opinion.

01:04:05.120 That's the

01:04:05.480 only thing

01:04:05.760 you know.

01:04:06.760 You have

01:04:07.360 no access

01:04:07.880 to some

01:04:09.000 universal

01:04:09.620 what is

01:04:10.120 right.

01:04:10.980 You have

01:04:11.740 a religious

01:04:12.480 belief, which

01:04:13.580 you're welcome

01:04:14.100 to, I

01:04:15.340 encourage it.

01:04:16.460 You have a

01:04:17.280 principle, which

01:04:18.740 you're welcome

01:04:19.200 to, and I

01:04:20.420 encourage it.

01:04:21.000 And then you

01:04:23.400 can have your

01:04:23.880 opinion, which

01:04:24.880 you're welcome

01:04:25.300 to, and I

01:04:26.720 would encourage

01:04:27.180 it.

01:04:28.280 But that

01:04:29.340 won't get you

01:04:30.040 to a good

01:04:30.580 society.

01:04:31.800 None of those

01:04:32.380 things will help

01:04:33.000 you get to

01:04:33.740 living together

01:04:34.880 in peace.

01:04:35.740 What might get

01:04:36.780 you there is

01:04:38.240 trying to convince

01:04:39.480 women to your

01:04:40.840 opinion.

01:04:42.660 That's always

01:04:43.360 good.

01:04:44.520 And if they

01:04:45.420 change their

01:04:45.980 mind, and

01:04:47.480 maybe they

01:04:47.880 decide differently

01:04:48.680 on abortion

01:04:49.400 in your

01:04:49.960 state or

01:04:50.520 otherwise, then

01:04:52.280 you're still

01:04:52.800 doing a

01:04:53.240 credible process

01:04:54.860 because if

01:04:55.620 women have

01:04:56.660 the most

01:04:57.080 skin in the

01:04:57.640 game, and

01:04:58.880 whatever way

01:04:59.500 the laws go

01:05:00.320 is compatible

01:05:01.100 with the

01:05:01.740 bare majority

01:05:03.240 of women,

01:05:04.160 then you have

01:05:04.720 the most

01:05:05.100 credible

01:05:05.860 system, even

01:05:08.400 if half the

01:05:08.980 country hates

01:05:09.520 it.

01:05:10.640 Now, it

01:05:11.040 could be in

01:05:11.480 either direction.

01:05:12.340 It could be

01:05:12.720 either pro or

01:05:13.540 anti, but it

01:05:15.100 would still be

01:05:15.620 the most credible

01:05:16.440 outcome, and

01:05:17.780 nobody will

01:05:18.320 stop you from

01:05:19.080 saying anything

01:05:19.700 you want about

01:05:20.400 it at any

01:05:20.980 time.

01:05:21.720 Your opinion,

01:05:23.040 full on.

01:05:25.440 But just know

01:05:26.060 that decision

01:05:26.740 making says

01:05:28.460 stop arguing

01:05:29.380 about the

01:05:29.820 thing that you

01:05:30.320 can't win.

01:05:31.660 The argument

01:05:32.440 of whether it's

01:05:33.160 life or not,

01:05:34.640 it's going

01:05:35.120 nowhere, and

01:05:36.100 it will go

01:05:36.560 nowhere.

01:05:37.480 So go to the

01:05:38.000 next thing that

01:05:39.140 matters, how do

01:05:39.780 you keep the

01:05:40.220 society together?

01:05:41.380 That's all I'm

01:05:41.880 saying.

01:05:42.480 Now, those who

01:05:43.300 would disagree

01:05:43.840 said, but,

01:05:45.040 but, but,

01:05:45.580 it's life and

01:05:47.020 death, and I

01:05:47.460 have to make

01:05:47.860 my, my

01:05:49.880 feelings known.

01:05:51.280 To which I

01:05:52.000 say, go

01:05:52.580 ahead.

01:05:53.740 Yeah, go

01:05:54.740 ahead.

01:05:57.560 But the

01:05:58.200 same should

01:05:58.620 apply to

01:05:59.540 war.

01:06:01.900 I think men

01:06:02.680 should be

01:06:03.140 primarily the

01:06:03.980 ones making

01:06:04.580 the decisions

01:06:06.020 about, do we

01:06:06.720 go to war, who

01:06:07.560 do we support,

01:06:09.020 how do we

01:06:09.500 keep the

01:06:09.840 country safe, do

01:06:10.740 we close the

01:06:11.300 borders, what

01:06:12.220 do we do

01:06:12.500 about crime

01:06:13.620 on the city?

01:06:14.140 Same problem.

01:06:16.980 I think that

01:06:17.780 women are less

01:06:18.480 credible in

01:06:19.700 that domain,

01:06:20.920 because they're

01:06:21.340 not the ones

01:06:21.840 who are going

01:06:22.140 to have to

01:06:22.460 clean it up

01:06:23.120 if it goes

01:06:23.800 wrong.

01:06:25.500 So, we'll,

01:06:27.500 neither of

01:06:27.820 these things

01:06:28.160 will ever

01:06:28.440 happen in

01:06:28.860 our system,

01:06:29.580 but that

01:06:30.000 would give

01:06:30.280 you better

01:06:30.580 results.

01:06:34.100 All right.

01:06:38.620 A, another

01:06:40.180 survey of

01:06:40.920 whether Trump

01:06:41.900 would win in

01:06:42.500 the, in

01:06:43.280 the battle

01:06:43.700 ground

01:06:44.020 states, the

01:06:45.200 newest one

01:06:45.700 says, that

01:06:46.760 Trump's on

01:06:47.340 track to win

01:06:48.140 292 electoral

01:06:49.540 college votes

01:06:50.280 compared to

01:06:50.740 Joe Biden

01:06:51.180 at 246.

01:06:52.840 That's like a

01:06:53.600 big win.

01:06:55.180 That's pretty

01:06:55.960 close to a

01:06:56.620 landslide.

01:06:57.660 Would you

01:06:58.000 call that a

01:06:58.460 landslide?

01:07:01.440 In your

01:07:02.120 opinion, would

01:07:02.960 292 to

01:07:04.120 246 be a

01:07:05.280 landslide?

01:07:08.140 I think they

01:07:08.940 would call it

01:07:09.480 that, but

01:07:10.540 we'll see.

01:07:11.000 A lot will

01:07:11.600 change.

01:07:11.940 Um, and

01:07:14.900 interestingly, if

01:07:16.480 you're, if

01:07:16.920 you're not

01:07:17.420 looking at

01:07:17.860 the national

01:07:18.680 vote, but

01:07:19.180 you're looking

01:07:19.660 at the, the

01:07:20.840 key states

01:07:21.580 of the

01:07:21.840 electoral

01:07:22.100 college,

01:07:22.940 according to

01:07:23.360 this survey,

01:07:24.180 uh, Trump

01:07:25.140 is the only

01:07:25.740 Republican who

01:07:26.560 could win

01:07:27.140 against any

01:07:29.620 Democrat.

01:07:31.800 Let me say

01:07:32.560 it again.

01:07:33.500 According to

01:07:34.180 this, Trump

01:07:35.040 is the only

01:07:35.720 Republican who

01:07:36.580 can win

01:07:37.060 against any

01:07:39.680 Democrat.

01:07:40.200 Biden,

01:07:41.580 Newsom, or

01:07:42.380 anybody else.

01:07:44.700 Now, that's

01:07:45.700 not believable

01:07:46.340 because, you

01:07:47.020 know, anybody

01:07:47.560 could really be

01:07:48.240 anybody, so you

01:07:49.100 never know who's

01:07:49.720 going to get

01:07:50.020 in.

01:07:50.880 But, that's

01:07:53.020 interesting.

01:07:53.920 DeSantis

01:07:54.340 actually would

01:07:55.140 not beat

01:07:55.740 either Harris

01:07:56.560 or Biden.

01:07:57.020 did I read

01:08:00.320 that right?

01:08:05.280 Doesn't

01:08:05.720 matter if he

01:08:06.260 faces, oh,

01:08:07.060 Trump would

01:08:07.780 be Biden,

01:08:08.500 Harris, or

01:08:08.860 Newsom, and

01:08:10.540 it looks like

01:08:11.300 DeSantis and

01:08:12.240 Nikki Haley

01:08:12.740 would get

01:08:13.080 demolished no

01:08:13.820 matter who

01:08:14.120 they ran

01:08:14.440 against.

01:08:15.840 I don't

01:08:16.400 know about

01:08:16.740 Vivek.

01:08:18.840 You can

01:08:19.440 imagine a

01:08:20.100 world in

01:08:20.740 which Trump

01:08:23.080 decided not

01:08:24.000 to run for

01:08:24.640 any personal

01:08:25.560 or other

01:08:26.060 reason, and

01:08:27.540 endorsed

01:08:28.260 Vivek, because

01:08:30.280 that seems

01:08:30.700 like really

01:08:31.200 possible,

01:08:31.800 doesn't it?

01:08:32.620 I mean, in

01:08:33.020 the worst

01:08:33.320 case scenario

01:08:33.940 where he

01:08:34.320 decided not

01:08:34.920 to run or

01:08:35.600 couldn't run

01:08:36.240 or it was a

01:08:37.220 health problem

01:08:37.780 or something

01:08:38.080 like that.

01:08:39.020 If Trump

01:08:39.880 endorsed

01:08:40.580 Vivek, you

01:08:42.980 don't think he

01:08:43.520 could beat

01:08:43.940 the Democrats?

01:08:45.000 I also

01:08:50.340 believe that

01:08:50.940 DeSantis

01:08:51.400 would have a

01:08:52.000 problem,

01:08:52.500 although I

01:08:52.820 think he'd

01:08:53.120 do a lot

01:08:53.420 better than

01:08:53.820 Nikki Haley,

01:08:54.640 and I think

01:08:55.160 Nikki Haley

01:08:55.660 would have a

01:08:56.140 problem, but

01:08:57.840 they don't

01:08:58.120 have his

01:08:58.580 skill.

01:08:59.220 They don't

01:08:59.600 have Vivek's

01:09:00.280 skill, and

01:09:01.040 they don't

01:09:01.300 have his

01:09:01.860 compatibility

01:09:02.940 with Trump

01:09:04.200 supporters.

01:09:06.060 I think

01:09:06.660 if you

01:09:09.060 think Vivek

01:09:09.800 doesn't have

01:09:10.500 a path,

01:09:12.180 he really

01:09:12.640 does.

01:09:13.100 I mean,

01:09:13.760 he's operating

01:09:14.620 as the

01:09:15.220 emergency

01:09:15.780 backup

01:09:16.300 spare to

01:09:17.140 Trump.

01:09:18.200 Now, to

01:09:18.940 be fair,

01:09:19.540 he's not

01:09:19.920 running to

01:09:20.360 be vice

01:09:20.760 president,

01:09:21.340 and he's

01:09:21.520 not running

01:09:22.500 to be

01:09:22.800 anybody's

01:09:23.240 backup.

01:09:24.280 He's running

01:09:24.700 to be

01:09:25.000 president,

01:09:25.600 and that's

01:09:25.980 exactly the

01:09:27.360 mindset and

01:09:28.100 position he

01:09:28.680 should have,

01:09:29.420 but in

01:09:29.840 reality,

01:09:31.040 things happen.

01:09:34.000 Do you

01:09:34.460 think Tucker

01:09:34.980 Carlson could

01:09:35.700 ever be the

01:09:36.700 vice

01:09:36.920 president?

01:09:40.500 I think

01:09:41.640 that Trump

01:09:42.740 is wisely

01:09:43.660 and smartly

01:09:44.520 just saying

01:09:45.200 good things

01:09:45.700 about Tucker

01:09:46.320 because they're

01:09:46.800 working well

01:09:47.420 at the

01:09:47.840 moment together.

01:09:49.420 So, I

01:09:50.160 don't think

01:09:51.260 Tucker has

01:09:51.920 any interest

01:09:52.460 in being

01:09:52.780 vice

01:09:53.040 president.

01:09:53.840 That would

01:09:54.380 be like the

01:09:54.800 worst idea

01:09:55.320 in the world,

01:09:55.860 really.

01:09:57.300 And I like

01:09:58.320 Tucker.

01:09:59.240 I just don't

01:09:59.820 think vice

01:10:00.460 president is

01:10:01.140 where he

01:10:01.940 would serve

01:10:02.540 the country

01:10:02.920 best.

01:10:04.200 I doubt

01:10:04.700 he thinks

01:10:05.080 it either.

01:10:07.040 All right.

01:10:08.820 I believe

01:10:09.580 I've talked

01:10:10.220 about all the

01:10:10.780 interesting news.

01:10:12.740 And that

01:10:15.180 concludes the

01:10:16.600 live stream

01:10:17.220 of the

01:10:17.540 day.

01:10:17.820 The live

01:10:18.120 stream of

01:10:18.500 live streams.

01:10:19.100 The best

01:10:19.400 thing you've

01:10:19.740 ever experienced

01:10:20.640 in your life.

01:10:22.800 Volcanoes

01:10:23.200 in Iceland.

01:10:25.800 Yeah.

01:10:27.520 Some are

01:10:28.040 saying there

01:10:28.460 was lots of

01:10:28.940 volcanoes at

01:10:29.640 the moment.

01:10:30.300 And then I

01:10:30.600 saw some

01:10:31.900 experts say,

01:10:32.920 no, it's

01:10:33.320 not true.

01:10:33.820 It's actually

01:10:34.220 a low

01:10:34.620 volcano year,

01:10:35.960 but I guess

01:10:36.320 the volcanoes

01:10:36.840 are just

01:10:37.260 interesting

01:10:37.840 places.

01:10:38.660 So we're

01:10:38.960 talking about

01:10:39.440 them.

01:10:39.580 I don't

01:10:44.380 think Trump

01:10:44.900 as president

01:10:45.460 would serve

01:10:45.920 the present

01:10:46.420 country best,

01:10:47.700 somebody says.

01:10:55.240 VP under

01:10:56.060 Biden or

01:10:56.560 Trump is

01:10:57.280 a bet on

01:10:57.800 death in

01:10:58.200 office.

01:10:58.740 That's true.

01:11:03.060 Yeah, so

01:11:03.380 Tim Scott

01:11:04.000 is out of

01:11:04.360 the race.

01:11:04.760 Yes.

01:11:04.820 Yes.

01:11:04.880 Yes.

01:11:04.940 Yes.

01:11:05.020 Yes.

01:11:05.040 Yes.

01:11:05.120 Yes.

01:11:05.140 Yes.

01:11:05.200 Yes.

01:11:05.600 Yes.

01:11:05.640 Yes.

01:11:06.140 Yes.

01:11:06.640 Yes.

01:11:06.680 Yes.

01:11:06.700 Yes.

01:11:07.200 Yes.

01:11:07.220 Yes.

01:11:07.240 Yes.

01:11:07.260 Yes.

01:11:07.300 Yes.

01:11:07.800 Yes.

01:11:07.840 Yes.

01:11:08.300 Yes.

01:11:09.040 Yes.

01:11:09.560 Yes.

01:11:14.000 Godless

01:11:14.520 skill of speaking

01:11:15.500 without saying

01:11:16.140 anything.

01:11:16.680 That's funny.

01:11:18.000 All right.

01:11:19.120 Thanks YouTube

01:11:19.820 for joining

01:11:20.420 and I will

01:11:21.900 talk to you

01:11:22.780 tomorrow

01:11:23.620 and it'll be

01:11:25.240 another wonderful

01:11:26.040 news day.

01:11:26.720 I just feel like

01:11:27.280 something's about

01:11:27.880 to happen.

01:11:29.020 There might be

01:11:29.480 some big news

01:11:30.300 brewing.

01:11:31.060 We'll keep an

01:11:31.700 eye on that.

01:11:32.960 Bye for now.

01:11:33.720 Bye for now.

01:11:33.900 Bye for now.

01:11:35.860 Bye for now.

01:11:36.880 Bye for now.

01:11:37.760 Bye for now.

01:11:38.260 Bye for now.

01:11:38.900 Bye for now.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - November 14, 2023

Episode 2292 Scott Adams： CWSA 11⧸14⧸23, Feels Like Something Big Is Brewing Today, But What？

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