Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2364 CWSA 01⧸25⧸24

00:00:00.000 stock after we're done with this because um we're entering the super cycle of robots

00:00:07.920 now unless somebody talks me out of it my understanding is that tesla the car company

00:00:14.240 will be rolling out humanoid robots and musk has said that the profitability from humanoid robots

00:00:22.240 could be you know way more way more than the profitability from selling electric cars

00:00:27.680 so aren't we entering the super cycle of all super cycles like the the thing that only happens

00:00:36.160 once in the history of humankind which is the the rollout of humanoid robots that's only going to

00:00:42.480 happen once so i feel like if you don't have at least a little bit of money in robots you could

00:00:52.960 be in big trouble because robots might be the only business of the future it might be all this left

00:01:00.240 i don't think i can i can't think of any investment situations similar to this

00:01:05.600 and by the way don't take any investment advice from me i don't give investment advice i'm going

00:01:10.240 to tell you what i'm doing and why and then you can you know look at your situation and do your own

00:01:16.080 research etc but don't take my financial advice so the reason i'm going to double up on tesla stock

00:01:22.480 probably i mean i'll do a little more research before i do is that i don't want to be left out

00:01:29.200 of the super cycle it could be pretty intense you know once the robots are rolling out anyway speaking

00:01:36.400 of uh elon musk who's always in the news ben shapiro talked to him in an interview and if you

00:01:43.120 haven't heard this estimate it's kind of wild that uh spacex is doing so well that um in five years we

00:01:51.440 might have a moon base and in 10 years we might have this civilization on mars you know moving

00:01:58.240 actually numbers of people to mars to actually just live there and uh must thinks that maybe in 45 years

00:02:08.480 mars could be self-sufficient meaning that if it never got another supply ship from earth

00:02:13.200 could still do okay now what is interesting about this feed is that i can't tell if it's actually

00:02:21.040 live i have no idea if i'm talking to real human beings right now am i because the comments every

00:02:29.200 every now and then will just stop like they have right now does that mean nobody's watching i actually

00:02:35.840 can't tell if i'm live it looks like it's live but there's no comments um give me give me just a

00:02:44.080 second i want to check on x to see if it's live because that might be down everywhere and unfortunately

00:02:51.120 you can't tell me you can't tell me i wish you could all right let's see just look at my feed and see if

00:02:58.880 it's live now there i am i'll be down let's see if that's sound

00:03:07.200 give me just a second i want to check yep that's sound too good for us all right um so yeah moon

00:03:14.960 basin five years mars in 10 and civilization self-sufficient uh in 45. those estimates sound

00:03:24.560 about right to me based on what's going on uh you probably have heard of taylor lorenz a writer who

00:03:31.120 used to work for the atlantic and then she went to the washington post what does that tell you about

00:03:35.520 a writer if any writer if they used to work for the atlantic and then they went to work for the washington

00:03:41.760 post does that give you any uh clues what's going on well those are two publications which people

00:03:53.120 imagine are the most corrupt in all of the news ish business uh and corrupt in terms of being just

00:04:01.600 democrat organs and not not anything like news but uh she did a video today that's getting a lot of

00:04:07.920 mocking uh i'm mocking uh i thought i'd join in and uh she's reading about all the uh media layoffs

00:04:14.800 so a lot of journalists are getting laid off across all kinds of industries and it's all for the same

00:04:20.720 reason uh those those entities are not doing well and i'm starting to think i know this is just a

00:04:30.080 suspicion but i'm starting to think that maybe they're brainwashing of the american public with

00:04:37.440 obvious bullshit day after day ignoring the obvious possibly is not the best business model

00:04:47.280 that's what i'm starting to think and i think it's fascinating that the people most surprised by

00:04:52.160 these layoffs are the investigative journalists who should have been the first ones keyed into the fact

00:04:58.880 that that the entire news industry had been destroyed by trump they didn't notice that he

00:05:05.840 destroyed their entire fake news industry simply by making us pay attention to how fake it was

00:05:11.840 and then people got on board and when it was so obvious that the architecture of the news business is

00:05:17.760 completely just um and people started catching on so taylor lorenz i guess those journalists should have

00:05:27.360 caught the biggest story in the world which is all of our news and all of our science is fake

00:05:33.280 sometimes not intentionally but it works out that way speaking of evil and fakes the uh

00:05:40.320 i guess there's some documentation that says the adl

00:05:45.920 um there's some emails discovered according to the libs of tiktok that says that the adl urged a

00:05:52.480 counter-terrorism unit in washington to investigate the libs of tiktok person who

00:06:00.080 runs that account and also matt walsh under the theory that they were for being anti-lgbtq

00:06:08.720 and that they should be investigated by a counter-terrorism unit terrorism for having an opinion

00:06:18.560 about those topics that was the adl now the adl i believe has done some good work in its history

00:06:28.240 you know protecting jewish people especially but for some reason it just became this completely corrupt

00:06:35.360 democrat um you know hit man organization where they just basically try to shit on anybody who's not

00:06:41.840 a democrat and they actually came after me and uh the the head of the adl in public on x accused me of

00:06:51.040 being a holocaust denier i've never even met a holocaust denier who denies the holocaust

00:07:00.720 now

00:07:03.920 it's the most corrupt ridiculous organization and if anybody takes them seriously uh that's probably the

00:07:09.840 same people who take seriously the journalists at you know the daily beast or something if you believe

00:07:16.720 the washington post you probably also believe the adl all right uh let me see if i can get the right

00:07:23.840 answer from you um on this question what percentage of the u.s voters think bidenomics will help biden

00:07:31.920 win this year's presidential election yeah that's right 26 as you know roughly a quarter of all people

00:07:40.560 polled will get every question wrong no matter how easy the question is no bidenomics is not going to

00:07:47.680 help joe biden but 26 say yeah probably will are you aware that generation z doesn't know how to communicate

00:07:58.320 it's true they don't know how to communicate

00:08:03.600 so those are the people between age 18 and 24. if you haven't noticed this apparently every boss and

00:08:10.320 person who works in business world has noticed that the generation z people just don't know how to make

00:08:15.280 conversation so they're they're socially you know repressed i won't use the other r word and

00:08:25.600 i feel like there's a solution to it the solution is the dale carnegie course i actually have been uh

00:08:32.720 teaching my own gen z person in my family my stepdaughter who's in that category how in the

00:08:41.520 world am i failing to turn off the ringer of my phone no matter how many times i try that's weird um

00:08:50.320 so i i've been uh teaching her the dale carnegie stack now the dale carnegie technique for making

00:09:00.880 conversation is like a superpower and it's really easy you know you can learn it in i'll teach you the

00:09:08.560 whole thing in 60 seconds in case you haven't heard it if you want to make conversation with

00:09:13.440 somebody and you don't know how ask them questions but don't ask you know random weird questions like

00:09:19.680 what's your favorite tv show only not at first you ask them stuff like you know what's your name where

00:09:25.360 do you work what do you do you know where do you live do you have a family you're married you have

00:09:30.800 kids where do they go to the school you know the word to go to school is maybe if you also have kids

00:09:35.920 so you might find something in common but if you simply show interest in people and ask questions

00:09:42.480 that's the answer for the gen gen z people that's it that's all in 60 seconds the whole technique it'll

00:09:50.240 change your life if you know any gen z's just give them that lesson start the conversation with a

00:09:56.880 question continue to show interest shake hands and make eye contact when the person's talking

00:10:03.840 and try to sort of agree with them or or boost what they're saying so they feel good talking it's like oh

00:10:10.560 yeah oh yeah that happened to me oh i know what you mean you you just let them talk and show them

00:10:15.520 some attention and appreciation and pretty soon they'll allow you talk you'll find your way to

00:10:21.200 jump in but not until there's something you're interested in you don't have to make random

00:10:25.520 conversation wait for them to say something that you'd like to join in on so that's the whole technique

00:10:30.800 i learned that in the dale carnegie course and it would really make a difference in your career

00:10:37.040 if you're in that age group because you would stand out people would notice they say whoa there's a

00:10:42.800 gen z person who can make conversation put them in sales put them in management so if you can add to

00:10:49.520 your talent stack add making conversation 60 second lesson really that's the whole thing well we have a

00:10:58.080 solution to the pipe bomb mystery remember the pipe bomb mystery who left those fake pipe bombs

00:11:04.240 uh around january 6 in 2020 thomas massey reports on x that three years ago into the january 6 pipe bomb investigation

00:11:16.000 with zero arrests a dozen unacknowledged facts and several impossible coincidences when the fba

00:11:24.640 when the fbi says quote it's our policy not to comment on ongoing investigations what i hear is

00:11:30.640 quote it's our policy not to comment on ongoing cover-ups all right so what's the rule with the

00:11:37.920 government i'll remind you if this were an individual they would be presumed innocent until

00:11:45.600 proven guilty that's the only standard that works that means that we want to work and that's a good

00:11:51.840 standard but it doesn't apply to the government the government is opposite and the reason the government

00:11:56.480 is opposite is that the government has power and individuals do not that's why individuals have

00:12:02.640 to be protected by the presumption of innocence even when they're not innocent but the government because

00:12:09.360 has power over us all has to be assumed guilty unless through transparency it can show you clearly that

00:12:20.160 it's not guilty of whatever so here's a case where the government is applying massive levels of cover-up

00:12:28.880 so why should you assume why would they cover up something that's not a problem

00:12:36.320 it's kind of obvious if you think there's any mystery to the january 6 stuff well maybe in the details but you

00:12:43.200 can conclude that it was an op of some type and that the government is covering up i i would say that

00:12:50.800 that's a conclusion that you can very comfortably make now suppose you're wrong you still should make the

00:12:58.720 assumption you should act as though you do know exactly the way people would act as though you're innocent

00:13:06.720 until proven guilty even if they might think you're guilty right so when the government is non-transparent

00:13:13.920 you don't have to wonder what happened that's the wrong play no you say oh now we have confirmation

00:13:21.520 that it's exactly what we thought we don't know the names and the people it'd be good to know that but

00:13:26.880 yeah it was a government op and the government's covering it up confirmed confirmed by lack of

00:13:32.960 transparency you don't need to know anything else i wouldn't even ask any further questions i just

00:13:38.160 conclude that the government is corrupt here's one other way to prove it

00:13:45.280 it's funny that carrie lake is making uh further news today not because someone offered her a bribe

00:13:51.520 which happened it was caught on audio but a republican operative in arizona uh said there's somebody

00:14:00.160 quote from the east coast we don't know uh had offered to basically bribe carried not to run for

00:14:08.000 the senate when she was running and she turned him down flat and said it's not about the money

00:14:13.040 wouldn't even talk about her price which gives me confidence in her and but then somebody noted today

00:14:20.880 that the reason it's still news is not because it's not because she was offered a bribe

00:14:27.120 it's newsworthy because she turned it down

00:14:32.800 and that's actually true the thing that's impressive is that you didn't take it

00:14:37.600 that's what makes it news so that's the country you live in that if somebody doesn't take a bribe

00:14:43.920 everybody's talking about it's like what's going on here somebody didn't take a bribe all right

00:14:48.880 we can also conclude that nobody has any blackmail material on carrie lake

00:14:56.720 because you don't need to bribe people that you can blackmail am i right obviously the people who

00:15:03.280 don't want her to run don't have any blackmail because they would have used that instead so she's

00:15:09.600 pretty clean um i like that i i think her her political uh capital just went up i don't know 50

00:15:19.680 it's a pretty big deal all right uh there's a clip of biden in 2007 talking about sanctuary cities

00:15:28.160 and he said that uh no on sanctuary cities the idea because uh sanctuary cities quote turn into dumps and

00:15:35.040 uh the only reason they exist is because the federal government doesn't enforce the law

00:15:42.320 that was 2007 yep sanctuary cities turn into dumps 2020 biden says uh illegals make cities safer

00:15:55.280 that's so dumb you don't even have to talk about the point of it all

00:15:58.000 you know nothing to say about that and i have this idea that um republicans could win

00:16:08.080 maybe every election for the rest of time if the only thing they did is run the democrats own words

00:16:15.840 as their um campaign so in other words trump could win easily simply by paying playing clips of biden

00:16:23.840 uh you know mumbling and talking over himself and contradicting himself and lying and yeah and

00:16:31.440 nothing else because he's he's so gone and so corrupt that anything looks good compared to him including

00:16:41.760 biden including trump even if he hated him speaking of which uh trump has made a strong move i think this

00:16:48.880 is a smart political move and very trump like uh he announced that anyone contributing to nikki haley from

00:16:55.200 this point on would be permanently banned from the mega camp now that's exactly the right move

00:17:03.360 right it's very transparent he's not hiding anything and up until this point he wasn't messing with

00:17:09.680 anybody's donors because it was an open primary and that was right that was the right thing to do

00:17:15.600 uh but at this point he's saying okay you know it really i mean it's kind of obvious that nikki

00:17:21.840 haley is the democrats play not the republican play if if nikki haley were genuinely you know grassroots

00:17:30.720 supported by um you know supported by lots of republicans that i've ever met or talked to and i still

00:17:37.840 never never met one i'm waiting for my first nikki haley supporter who's a republican

00:17:43.440 i haven't met one democrats seem to want to boost her for their own reasons though strategically

00:17:53.280 so i think it's actually a good uh a good play by trump to put the strong arm on anybody who's

00:17:59.280 funding her from the republican side i heard that reid hoffman is going to pull his funding from

00:18:05.840 haley but i don't know if that's confirmed so yeah i think that's the right play good play well as

00:18:12.720 charlemagne the god we'll just call him the charlemagne uh he's a real interesting character

00:18:19.600 i like charlemagne um as a public figure because my take on him is that he's one of the few people

00:18:27.360 who's not lying to us you know he's a public figure and he's you know obviously leans democrat

00:18:33.360 well it's not obvious but i just told you he leans democrat

00:18:36.560 um but he also seems to be a person who has good intentions and wants to know what's true

00:18:46.160 but like most democrats he's caught in a bubble of complete bullshit so knowing what's true is kind of

00:18:52.800 kind of hard but he's working it out there's a clip of him calling trump a fascist talking to joy

00:19:00.080 reid in an old msnb clip msnbc now if you're a democrat and you're listening to msnbc you are

00:19:09.040 literally and this is my opinion that it's literally true not hyperbole you're literally getting your

00:19:15.920 news from people who have mental illness about the news i mean i don't think joy reid is necessarily

00:19:24.160 mentally ill in some general way but about the news clearly there's mental illness going on there's

00:19:30.560 some kind of hysteria going on with you know some of the individuals like racial mad now they just look

00:19:38.560 crazy and it's not because they're women i'm not saying all the women on msnbc look crazy and certainly

00:19:45.840 on cnn cnn the women don't look crazy but there are two of them that look crazy i mean they look

00:19:52.560 actually like they're battling some serious mental problems um but that's what charlemagne was

00:19:59.120 listening to a few years ago but now what he's listening to is his own uh radio show callers uh working

00:20:07.120 class people as he says saying this immigration migration crisis is too far it's got to be stopped so

00:20:15.760 even charlemagne is thinking hmm i'm hearing bad things about this trump guy but he probably would

00:20:23.360 close the border and it's kind of hard to understand why it's not already closed so um and then there's

00:20:32.720 there's news that the black vote in georgia is moving starting to move in a big way toward trump

00:20:39.200 i don't know if any of those polls are are uh are yet useful um but there does seem to be uh

00:20:49.600 i think the migrant crisis will move the black vote a little bit more republican than it's ever been

00:20:55.680 that feels like a safe safe prediction i don't think it'll be this massive switch from democrat republican

00:21:03.680 but trump only needs you know 10 20 shift in the black vote and he wins everything it looks like

00:21:10.640 that's actually going to happen all right of course we're going to talk about texas of course

00:21:18.320 um here's my take when things are going well we use a thing called politics

00:21:25.920 politics and free speech and all that stuff to get things done so if you're not in mortal danger

00:21:33.120 then you can have some political discussions and i can talk about my policies and you can talk about

00:21:38.800 your policies as long as you're an american citizen and even if you're not you could be a jordan peterson

00:21:45.120 or you know russell brand or something and we'll still listen to you because it's a good process as long

00:21:51.600 as you're not in a lot of trouble the talking it out and politics works really well but when it comes

00:21:59.040 to our border uh at the moment it has moved to a new phase that i will call biological we've moved

00:22:07.280 down to politics because we're now in a critical literal life well life and death is too strong but

00:22:14.960 people will die so there is some life and death element to it but migration is a crisis it does risk

00:22:21.200 destroying the entire country and that's not hyperbole it does risk destroying the entire

00:22:26.800 country if it went on we're not there at the moment so under those conditions when uh politics as in

00:22:36.240 talking it out uh doesn't work and you realize that just talking about it is going to get you all killed

00:22:42.960 then it moves to what i call the biology biological level biology takes over and i'm going to be as blunt

00:22:49.600 as possible because i'm the only person who's canceled enough to say this in direct terms

00:22:54.640 it's time for the women to shut up and get out of the conversation right with all due respect

00:23:00.960 you know now i say the same about abortion people get mad at me when i say this the reason i don't have

00:23:05.840 an opinion on abortion is that i stay the out of that that that's biological not political in my opinion

00:23:13.040 and when it's biological you gotta let the biological people who are made for this event

00:23:19.600 have the larger say now i don't mind if you weigh in because it's a free country so if you're a man

00:23:25.040 and you've got an opinion on on abortion because you think it's life and death that's fine i just don't

00:23:31.680 personally so personally i'd rather women collectively make the decision about what's legal and what's not and

00:23:37.920 what to do in their own their own situation now that doesn't mean that they will make the decisions

00:23:43.120 i think are right that's not the point the point is that responsibility and biology are so tightly linked

00:23:54.000 that it's always a good idea to let the people with the most responsibility i.e having a baby

00:24:00.000 have more vote they just have a bigger say and i think in a practical sense that it does go that way i

00:24:06.160 think women are getting more of what they want on abortion than men and that's probably good now

00:24:11.600 when it comes to protecting the country from large male uh military age men some some of whom are

00:24:20.640 clearly terrorists coming across our border that's not really women's work

00:24:27.120 now i don't think there'll be any pushback on this actually it's just one of those things people

00:24:31.600 would be afraid to say if you look at the videos of the national guard lining up i'm sure there's some

00:24:36.880 women there but they're the exception so remember everything i say is a generality plenty of specific

00:24:44.880 exceptions we accept that but this is now just biological the country's in danger the government

00:24:51.360 didn't work and politics didn't work so what abbott is doing governor abbott of texas is just going

00:24:57.360 to be biological he's a man he rounded up a bunch of mostly men who are in uniform and under his

00:25:04.960 command and he's putting them on the border and he's going to stop the biological risk that's pouring

00:25:10.560 across the border now what's the federal government going to do well it turns out that abbott has a lot

00:25:16.320 of game so he he put out a message that says that the constitution allows the states and he showed the

00:25:23.840 part of the constitution that does in fact the states are allowed to protect themselves under the

00:25:30.800 under the specific situation that the federal government won't do it that's the exact situation

00:25:38.400 now you know don't listen to me for any constitutional uh conversation uh but the basic idea is the states

00:25:46.000 do have the right to protect themselves militarily if it's the only recourse they have

00:25:52.000 on top of that it gets really interesting apparently they also specifically in the constitution very

00:26:00.560 directly it says they can uh team up with other states for their mutual protection and sure enough

00:26:07.840 a bunch of other southern and and uh i think are they all southern but mostly southern but republican

00:26:15.200 states have joined in uh on the side at least with resources so let's see who's joined in so far

00:26:24.240 we've got florida of course arkansas iowa idaho nebraska north dakota ohio oklahoma south carolina

00:26:31.440 south dakota tennessee virginia west virginia and wyoming so they're mostly personnel and resources i don't think

00:26:40.000 i don't know that any gun carrying people from the other states are coming in but i wouldn't rule it out

00:26:45.200 so this is now a male issue it's biological it's a existential risk and if the constitution didn't

00:26:56.720 allow it we'd have to do it anyway we'd have to do it anyway it's great that it does allow it i mean

00:27:03.680 it should and it does so they do have the best argument now what's going to happen you're going to

00:27:09.680 ask me is it going to come to violence really unlikely i mean anything could happen you you can

00:27:18.320 imagine somebody firing and somebody firing back but not really not really and the reason that there

00:27:27.360 won't be a um in all likelihood there won't be physical violence of any scale i'll just say of

00:27:35.440 scale there could be some could be some shoving i don't know could be some little stuff but it won't

00:27:40.720 be a scale it won't be a civil war do you know why because on one side you've got a bunch of men

00:27:49.120 what's on the other side if the federal government tried to use some military force what would be on the

00:27:54.720 other side men they're on the same side they're on the same side it doesn't matter what their generals

00:28:05.040 tell them that these are men who will protect your border there's no way that they're going to start

00:28:11.760 killing each other to benefit the people coming across the border that's not going to happen yeah and

00:28:18.720 you know you know what the risk of that happening would be if women still had some control over this

00:28:25.520 situation but that's that's no longer the case yeah if women were involved there might be a disagreement

00:28:32.400 maybe it would boil up to something violent but if it's a whole bunch of men standing next to a whole

00:28:38.080 bunch of other men who are americans and we're on the border and the question is should we let all these

00:28:44.800 other biological risks come across the border in this case risk would be partly criminal the terrorists

00:28:52.640 but partly economic etc um they're going to be on the same side they're not going to be shooting each

00:28:59.520 other if anything they'll secede from the union just long enough to help texas so let me say this

00:29:07.600 as clearly as i can because the more support texas has the less likely there'll be any kind of bloodshed

00:29:15.280 i'm on texas aside uh i disavow the federal government and they're and the way they're

00:29:23.520 running the country i do not have american patriotism at the moment that biden unfortunately

00:29:30.960 has unraveled that for me now of course i'm pro-american people you know the people yes but

00:29:37.280 the american federal government has lost all of my support all of my support and if it comes to

00:29:44.000 violence i back texas it won't very unlikely but if it comes to violence i want to be as clear as

00:29:51.840 possible if i have to kill somebody i'm going to be on the texas side if it happens because they're

00:29:58.960 the ones protecting the border i don't know what's happening with the federal government but i don't

00:30:02.800 support it i just don't support the federal government under biden whatever is happening

00:30:08.480 is not coming from inside the house

00:30:12.800 do you feel that whatever it is that's driving the biden administration to keep those borders open

00:30:19.120 it's not coming from within america i mean it's also coming within america but the

00:30:24.400 the larger force is something else i just don't know what it is and it also doesn't matter at this

00:30:29.920 point does it matter well maybe in the legal sense but we're going to close the border now

00:30:36.960 so i believe the decision's been made that the border will be closed men have made the decision

00:30:42.400 plus you know sarah senders huckabee yeah yeah good credit to her for being in the mix there uh and

00:30:50.800 there are probably some other female governors so somebody somebody give me a fact check on that

00:30:56.160 because if there are some female governors that are joining into texas i want to give them a shout

00:31:00.720 out as well um but uh it's going to get real interesting now and i don't know that this uh gets

00:31:08.720 unraveled i believe that this play becomes the future in other words i don't think the federal

00:31:16.480 government is going to do something clever that works you know like uh nationalizing the the the texas

00:31:23.920 soldiers or whatever they might try i just think it won't work so i think that the states forming

00:31:32.640 literally the potential of an armed civil war is enough to make the federal government back down

00:31:40.400 especially in an election year do you think do you think that uh biden wants to be the person who

00:31:47.360 plunged america into a civil war because that's what it's going to look like if one bullet gets fired

00:31:54.800 if one bullet gets fired he doesn't have a chance not not a single chance of getting elected

00:32:02.640 i mean i'm not sure he has much of a chance now now let's talk about the vp choice um i'm going to

00:32:10.800 commit i was very hesitant about the idea of vivek as a vice president choice for trump because i like

00:32:18.640 vivek and i didn't want to see him get ruined in a in a vice president role that wasn't valued and

00:32:26.960 you know maybe he just gets in a fight and his reputation gets ruined because it's just being part

00:32:32.160 of the trump administration and then as a young man who has great potential we would lose out as the

00:32:37.840 country to whatever he could contribute because he just gets slimed by being part of it i still have that

00:32:44.480 concern i do think he might be the only person who has enough talent to avoid that trap it would be

00:32:52.720 hard but if anybody could do it he's the one person i've ever seen who could do that now here's the

00:33:00.560 thing you need to know about a potential uh oh and if i didn't say it directly i'm all in on vivek as

00:33:06.560 vice president now trump will make his own decisions but i know that he does a good job of surveying

00:33:12.400 um opinion of you know the opinion people so somebody on his staff probably is watching the

00:33:20.160 shower will hear that i'm all down with vivek as a vice presidential choice so i think it's useful

00:33:26.880 if anybody else has the same opinion and you feel that you're one of the influencers it's time

00:33:33.280 you know if you think he's vivek is the choice let's just say it because i think it does make a

00:33:38.720 difference now here's what i think makes vivek the obvious choice um and here's the easiest way to

00:33:45.440 say it trump and vivek solve for each other they solve for each other in a way i've never seen before

00:33:56.320 it's kind of remarkable when you think about it what is what is the um solution for trump's age

00:34:02.720 the bank that makes the solution for trump's age what what is the solution for um trump maybe not

00:34:13.600 understanding some of the technical issues like you know digital currency and you know what do you do

00:34:18.720 with ai because a lot of our decisions are going to be super technical going forward who solves for that

00:34:24.240 the bank he solves for that right um who solves for the fact that trump is going to be labeled a big

00:34:33.760 old dictator fascist well trump does it doesn't do a good job solving for himself because he likes to

00:34:41.280 stay in the tough guy mode and as long as you stay in the tough guy mode you can be painted as a fascist

00:34:48.480 it's just kind of easy so vivek solves for that because he will simply give you the the better

00:34:55.280 argument for everything what about the fact that uh democrats think uh republicans are a bunch of

00:35:01.760 dummies who don't follow science the vague solves for that he's not a dummy and he definitely follows

00:35:10.080 science right nobody would really uh it would be weird to say that about him i'm sure somebody will but

00:35:16.240 so now what about the other way does trump solve for vivek well what's if vivek got working against

00:35:24.800 him number one he's brown and hindu and even in my feed people are saying he'll never get old

00:35:32.400 he'll never be successful in american politics as president or vice president because he's brown

00:35:39.120 and he's hindu and the you know the conservatives are never going to go for that yes they will yes they

00:35:45.600 will all he has to do is be trump's choice trump can make you okay with brown and hindu in fact

00:35:53.120 you'll love it by the time of four years later you'll think it's your favorite thing in the world

00:35:57.600 you'll want all your presidents to be brown and hindu by the time he's done with you

00:36:01.600 all he has to do is do a good job and i'm sure he will so yes trump solves for vivek any concerns you

00:36:09.040 had what about um i'm seeing a bunch of people saying i don't trust vivek he just sort of came

00:36:15.760 out of nowhere and you know suddenly you know so there must be something sketchy about him trump

00:36:22.640 solves for that because trump and trump's people will certainly vet the living piss out of him you

00:36:28.640 know if he's got any like weird dark money that's following him we haven't seen any where where's all his

00:36:34.560 weird dark money where's his i haven't seen any and you know that the trump people are going to look

00:36:39.520 for you hard and if they don't find any which i think they won't that's good for vivek so it's a

00:36:49.920 really weird situation and then of course the biggest question would be their personalities can two

00:36:56.240 personalities were both tigers share target tiger meat can two tigers share tiger beat you know the

00:37:06.560 attention the power of the influence and that's a question however i'm going to go back to my early

00:37:14.720 response about vivek there's only one person who could pull it off yeah there's only one person who

00:37:21.680 could pull off sometimes disagreeing with trump and getting away with it because when vivek disagrees

00:37:30.080 with you you've seen him do it a million times on video he'll give you an argument that is so disarming

00:37:36.800 that it doesn't feel like an ego contest it just feels like oh okay well that's a different way to look

00:37:42.800 at it he's a reframer as much as a fighter he's a fighter too but when it counts he's a reframer and

00:37:51.680 reframing always works i wrote a book about it you may have heard of it and

00:38:00.480 so uh i think they're a perfect match if they can survive and if trump decides to pick him so i'm on

00:38:07.840 record i'm with texas and i'm with the bank and it's time to go serious about fixing stuff by the

00:38:16.160 way 2024 is going to be lit 2024 is great so far even the things that are bad look like the beginning

00:38:25.200 of a correction you know if you say oh my god 2024 looks like a civil war no it looks like a problem is

00:38:32.960 just about ready to be corrected not in california but yeah so you know you have to be careful what

00:38:40.400 looks like bad news the the texas stuff is all good news it's all good news unless it comes to some

00:38:48.400 violence and i think that's very unlikely it would be it would just become a court thing if it became

00:38:53.680 anything all right um all right dean phillips continues to be interesting so he's running

00:39:04.240 against biden and uh watching him complain about biden's you know declining abilities is interesting

00:39:13.840 and dean phillips said this on x he goes how can one quote to support democracy while supporting the

00:39:20.480 most unpopular and unelectable democrat in the modern era is that a good question how can you

00:39:27.680 say you're in favor of democracy while you're supporting joe biden who is the least favorite

00:39:33.680 person of all time in the in that job uh as phillips says uh biden is four points below the man he barely

00:39:42.320 beat in 2020 uh he says it's hard to believe but very true it's not hard for me to believe

00:39:47.680 um and then he says now keep in mind this is a democrat running for president who's who's saying

00:39:58.000 those words about democrats look at the choice of words the delusion is dangerous it's not rocket science

00:40:05.840 folks we need a different nominee the delusion he's actually telling his own team that they're suffering

00:40:15.520 from delusion is he right completely yeah yeah and where does the delusion come from

00:40:25.520 the media yeah so this is you know where does where does any belief about politics come from

00:40:32.000 now we like to think we cooked up our own opinions we didn't they come from the media so the media has

00:40:38.160 literally brainwashed democrats into many idiots in effect and dean phillips is calling them out you're

00:40:45.200 you're operating under a delusion and if you can't see that biden's the wrong candidate you're clearly

00:40:51.600 just not using your rational brains is he right yes yes that's totally right if you're voting for biden

00:41:00.960 and you have an alternative and he's an alternative i mean he walks and he talks and he makes sense so

00:41:06.560 far um yes you're just delusional there is no way that biden can win unless there's a lot of cheating

00:41:13.920 that goes on and uh more to dean phillips's credit uh he talks about he saw a mega crowd waiting for a

00:41:22.880 rally it was across the street from where he had an event in i guess was iowa or new hampshire

00:41:29.280 new hampshire i guess and he said he spent some time talking to the mega people and do you know

00:41:36.080 what he found out well everybody who's a mega person knows so here's a guy who's a major democrat

00:41:43.520 and he sees a bunch of your rabid crazy mega people waiting for the big mega trump fascist

00:41:51.760 hitler rally and what he when he talked to them you know what he found out oh these are nice people

00:41:57.280 now that's something that 100 of mega people know yeah if you talk to them one-on-one these are just

00:42:05.520 nice reasonable working class often sometimes retired just people they're nice people

00:42:14.800 and dean phillips actually acted a little surprised by that why because he watches democrat news and the

00:42:22.720 democrats probably told them that they're all basically you know evil demons working for

00:42:27.360 you know basil bob or something and then he talks to him it's like wait a minute my news sources are

00:42:33.600 not lining up with people who just want a good economy and a safe country not making sense

00:42:44.240 all right um looks like as glenn greenwald points out that congress is pulling out all the stops to fund

00:42:50.640 the ukraine so they're doing all this desperate urgent maneuvering to get it funded they're holding

00:42:56.640 border security as a hostage and as a greenwald points out when was the last time you saw congress

00:43:05.440 fighting this hard for america now i get that their argument is if ukraine falls it's bad for america

00:43:13.680 bad for europe i get it but it's kind of a you know one or two steps away from being something that

00:43:20.560 affects us why don't you see congress working like on let's say the border problem for example

00:43:26.880 why aren't they putting this kind of creativity and massive effort into solving our direct immediate

00:43:33.120 existential problem because they're largely worthless and i assume they're corrupt the the only explanation for

00:43:43.840 our policy in ukraine i think is corruption now the other arguments have some weight i do think

00:43:52.720 there's something to you know if putin got away with whatever he wanted he might try more things there's

00:43:57.920 something to that that's not a nothing but um there there's something else going on it does look like

00:44:08.560 i believe the people who say that ukraine has been the bad people's piggy bank forever so i believe

00:44:14.320 the business model looks like this there are democrats who uh get us into wars we don't need to get into

00:44:21.440 with good arguments that sound good enough to get into the war and then the public has to pony up a

00:44:29.440 zillion dollars for various military things that are poorly accounted for and that people who are in that

00:44:35.760 world can make gigantic amounts of money in a very short time because the accounting is poor for where

00:44:42.560 the money goes so i think our wars are all optional wars lately they seem to be optional wars uh from

00:44:50.720 profiteers we're driving driving the model that's what it looks like all right there's a interesting

00:44:57.600 uh study by a fellow named roy spencer you need to know that he's uh he's a visiting fellow at the

00:45:06.240 heritage foundation so he would he would be leaning right which is important to the story about climate

00:45:13.680 change but here's what he came up with uh so he's he's a qualified science scientist right he's not just a

00:45:20.480 guy writing an article so he's he's in the field and he says that climate models that guide energy

00:45:27.280 policy do not even conserve energy a necessary condition for any physically based model of the

00:45:33.360 climate system now i don't know exactly what that means but i think he means that if you run the model

00:45:42.000 and it doesn't assume that the i don't know environment stored any energy somewhere that it must be flawed

00:45:48.400 i don't know exactly what that means but what he did was he looked at all the existing climate models

00:45:55.040 and he determined that they're nowhere near the actual temperature and that the climate models are

00:46:01.840 way above the actual observed temperature and they have been for years and what he says is uh quote

00:46:10.720 well he showed that the observed rate of global warming over the past 50 years

00:46:14.960 has been weaker than the predicted by almost all computerized climate models

00:46:21.280 um so he says there's a specific logical reason why the all the models are bad

00:46:28.560 and the now those who believe that the climate models are good here's the trick that fooled you it's

00:46:35.760 called the hindcasting with lots of different models now if this is the first time you've heard this

00:46:41.840 it's going to make you really mad some of you have heard it before from me so let's say you've got a

00:46:48.000 hundred different climate models and they all use different variables and techniques some of them are

00:46:53.600 wildly off some of them by just chance are going to be close so what you do is you come up with a new

00:47:00.560 model today and then you test it against uh the history so you say if this model had existed 50 years ago

00:47:09.280 would it have accurately you know tracked the actual temperatures we're measuring now if it does you

00:47:16.080 say i got a good model because it would have worked for 50 years in a row therefore there's a good chance

00:47:21.920 it'll keep working that's logical right does that make sense to you if you had a model that you created

00:47:28.160 today and you could know for sure from our past data that if we had created it 50 years ago it would have

00:47:35.120 accurately predicted our temperatures so that's a good model now most of you are going to say well

00:47:42.400 that does make sense if it worked for 50 years in a row that's really a well-tested model isn't it

00:47:50.880 nope don't fall for that one that that's like one of the most classic um i guess tricks

00:47:59.760 right here here's why that doesn't make sense if you have a hundred models and they all predict

00:48:06.400 different things some of them are going to be by coincidence close to the actual and you will talk

00:48:13.600 yourself into thinking that the reason that one model is close to the actual is because it's a valid

00:48:19.280 model nope if you took a bunch of pennies and threw them on a checkerboard there would be a penny that

00:48:27.120 landed on you know most of the squares and it doesn't mean anything it doesn't mean doesn't

00:48:33.040 mean pennies know where a square is it doesn't mean let's let's say some of them landed more on

00:48:39.200 red than black squares it wouldn't mean that pennies prefer red squares it's just a pure statistical

00:48:46.000 fact if you've got a hundred past models some of them are going to be close it doesn't mean they're

00:48:52.720 predictive so that's the part that throws you you say well if it predicted for 50 years

00:48:59.040 clearly it will predict for the next you know one or two nope no it's just some were going to be on

00:49:05.440 target and some weren't but if you check back in another 50 years it's almost impossible to imagine

00:49:12.640 that the one that had worked for the first 50 years is the same one that's working 50 years later

00:49:18.000 because it never worked in the first place it was only coincidentally on target just a coincidence

00:49:26.000 right so roy spencer makes i think that point and debunks the climate models so everything you knew

00:49:33.040 about the climate and the economy and everything else was fake and i believe that 2024 is going to be

00:49:41.440 incredible not just for what it's going to do to our brains it's you know it's going to scramble our

00:49:47.120 brains pretty good but everything seems to be trending toward a solution even though it might

00:49:55.360 be at its worst point at the moment like immigration but immigration is clearly trending toward a biological

00:50:02.000 solution you know meaning men will just say it's over and they'll ignore their government if they need to

00:50:09.040 to get it done i think the economy is going to improve i do worry about debt i just don't understand

00:50:15.440 how we can survive the debt and still have low inflation so there's something about economics that

00:50:20.720 nobody understands because nobody can explain that i don't think i've never seen anybody even try it's

00:50:27.280 like completely inexplicable right um so i think we have a huge corrective force coming i think that

00:50:39.600 corrective force is largely male i think that free speech is breaking on everywhere i think that the

00:50:46.480 x platform and elon musk saved america saved america i don't think that's an exaggeration i think that we're

00:50:55.840 heading actually into the crapper at 100 miles an hour because we didn't have free speech which is the

00:51:02.240 minimum for fixing anything in a country it's just the minimum so if you don't have free speech you got

00:51:08.880 nothing and now the x platform will be able to tell our government whose side the people are on at

00:51:17.520 least the people are paying attention on x i think you're going to find that the support for texas is

00:51:23.360 through the roof where else are you going to see that do you think cnn is going to tell you you know

00:51:29.520 we checked and the country really really does back texas on this i'll bet they won't i'll bet they

00:51:36.160 won't report that there might be a poll here or there but i'll bet they won't spend much time on it

00:51:41.440 um but x will x platform will be telling you what the people think and i'm telling you right now and

00:51:50.640 i'm telling you if i want to say it as clearly as possible if it came to bloodshed i sided with texas

00:51:58.560 it won't the the odds of bloodshed are really small you know unless there might be a weirdo or

00:52:04.320 a crazy person or something but we're not going to have armed military conflict between texas and

00:52:09.760 the rest of the country or the government um all right so ladies and gentlemen i'm very positive about

00:52:16.320 the coming uh year uh i think china is on the decline i think uh gaza will be

00:52:23.920 yeah it's going to go the direction it had to go you know the the tough choices are what's being

00:52:30.160 happening now but the tough choices had to be made they just had to be made so uh everything looks bad

00:52:38.480 but is trending in the right direction you know israel is going to be in a better situation

00:52:45.280 after they're done than they were before guaranteed i mean they'll be in a better better shape all right

00:52:53.360 that's all i got for now and uh optimism is going to be my key word for the day and good luck with texas

00:53:00.880 i'm backing you 100 percent and vivek backing you 100 and those are my messages for the day thanks for

00:53:08.560 listening um your comments were looks like they locked up a little bit but um i will be back tomorrow

00:53:16.560 and i'll talk to you then

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - January 25, 2024

Episode 2364 CWSA 01⧸25⧸24

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