Scott Adams explains why smart people are easier to hypnotize than dumb people, and why dumb people are actually hard to hypnotherapists. And why the smarter you are, the more likely you are to believe in ridiculous things.
00:09:38.440We are not different from the pattern recognition AI that we have now.
00:09:42.980To imagine that we will create something that's smarter than us and that we would let it run or that we'd even recognize it as smart is a leap I can't make.
00:09:57.680Everything I know about human beings suggests that AGI is logically impossible.
00:10:04.640It's not technically impossible because we'll never, it'll never matter if it's technically impossible.
00:10:11.360It's logically impossible because we think we're smart and if we're building something that matches what we think we are, we will know it's not smart, but we won't know what the problem is.
00:10:25.520We'll keep making it like us because we think we have this generalized intelligence.
00:10:31.620So, we'll keep trying to make it like us and we'll keep being stupid and we won't be able to figure out why it falls for ops.
00:10:39.840Why does this super intelligence keep falling for hoaxes?
00:12:04.320And that while we see slight progress toward this AGI, what we don't see is that when it starts to give faster progress, it's going to be so faster that it's almost instant.
00:12:18.560So, we don't see that the curve is going to be nothing, nothing, nothing, everything.
00:12:26.000If anything does happen, it'll happen like that.
00:12:30.300He says by 2030, AI will exceed all human intelligence combined, and I disagree with that.
00:12:37.920Because if he's right that AGI is achieved by next year, and the reason that he would be, let's say, predicting that ahead of other people, is because he's predicting that that rate of change will surprise us.
00:12:52.220Wouldn't that also apply to the 2030 prediction?
00:12:56.620I think that if AGI actually happened, that it would exceed all human intelligence combined maybe in a month.
00:13:10.300If it had access to everything we have access to, I don't know.
00:13:14.760I think it would exceed all human intelligence if it ever existed right away, like it would happen so fast we wouldn't even know what happened.
00:13:25.380So, that's two disagreements, but one is conditional.
00:13:29.140One is that if he's right about AGI, then he's wrong about how long it will take to exceed all human intelligence.
00:13:35.560Because it would just be, in my opinion, it looks like he's making the same mistake with the 2030 as he's telling us not to mistake, not to make with the AGI in the coming year, the rate of change issue.
00:13:52.360So, anyway, if you're going to bet on Musk or me, you should bet on him.
00:13:57.360He has a better track record of being right than I do.
00:14:00.440So, if I'm going to bet, I'd bet on him.
00:14:04.700But I think it's fun to have the counter prediction up there, just to test it.
00:14:12.560Well, NVIDIA, according to Unusual Whales account, has announced an AI-powered healthcare agent that can outperform nurses.
00:14:26.040That's according to Fox News, I guess.
00:14:27.740Now, if you could hire a nurse over the phone or over some digital mechanism for $9 an hour, and it's better than a real nurse, would you do that?
00:15:56.680So I don't even know how to give any kind of career advice.
00:15:59.800But more importantly, I think that our range of prediction has shortened to about six months.
00:16:10.360Meaning that you could probably predict things in the economy and the nation reasonably well in six months based on the fact that it won't change much.
00:16:20.820But anything between six months and a year, I don't know that we could predict anything anymore.
00:16:26.820We certainly don't know what's going to happen with the election.
00:16:30.040That's an anything could happen situation.
00:16:32.400And we don't know even if health care will still exist as an industry.
00:17:58.260During the pandemic, mostly you know the story.
00:17:59.980I was the one who suggested to Trump that he drop that limitation where you couldn't talk to a doctor in another state unless they were licensed in your state.
00:18:10.420So telehealth is something that didn't exist across state lines until the pandemic.
00:18:17.800And until I literally is the one who suggested it.
00:18:21.520Now, because it's a good idea once you hear it in a pandemic, it's an obvious idea.
00:18:27.680And just like Obama said with Obamacare, Obama said, I'm going to do a bad version of Obamacare, but it'll be too hard for them to take it away.
00:19:56.080Searchlight Pictures presents The Roses, only in theaters August 29th.
00:20:00.300From the director of Meet the Parents and the writer of Poor Things comes The Roses, starring Academy Award winner Olivia Colman, Academy Award nominee Benedict Cumberbatch, Andy Samberg, Kate McKinnon, and Allison Janney.
00:20:13.180A hilarious new comedy filled with drama, excitement, and a little bit of hatred, proving that marriage isn't always a bed of roses.
00:20:20.720See The Roses, only in theaters August 29th.
00:20:27.000I saw a post by Josh Jolani talking about how young people can't do anything anymore.
00:20:32.780So if you graphed young people's habits today compared to the past, young people no longer want to drive a car, get a job to work for pay, drink alcohol, have sex, or ever go on a date.
00:21:11.640It seems to us, older people, that because young people have been coddled and sheltered from the real world and they spend time looking at screens, that they don't know how to do anything.
00:21:24.000That they don't know how manners work.
00:21:25.740They don't know how to ask somebody to a date and get turned down.
00:22:59.280Now, if you had never touched any dangerous heavy equipment or never done a job or never touched anything important that you could break, it would be really scary to drive a car, wouldn't it?
00:25:09.840Have we narrowed it down to something in the sexual crime domain, but we don't have any details, and we're not even positive about that yet, right?
00:25:27.220Well, this, of course, raises every possible conspiracy theory that everybody on the right has, that the entire entertainment industry is a giant grooming situation.
00:25:42.280So, some would say that Sean Combs did more than comb.
00:25:50.180Not only did he comb, he groomed, they say.
00:25:58.540Anyway, he's innocent until proven guilty.
00:26:02.980Let me be a little bit serious for a moment.
00:26:05.300He's, it sounds like the accusations must be pretty dire because of the size of the military response.
00:26:14.880But, he is a citizen of the United States.
00:26:21.340And as a citizen of the United States, who may have some legal jeopardy here, let me say as clearly as I can, it's true for Hunter Biden, it's true for Trump, and it's true for P. Diddy.
00:26:40.960You know, it's fun to sort of dance on the grave of people you don't like if they're famous and wealthy.
00:26:47.600But, I think we just gotta try as hard as we can to say innocent until proven guilty.
00:26:54.420We're having fun with it, because it's not us.
00:26:57.080But, if you're watching Lawfare take out Trump, and then you see somebody who's on the other, you think is on the other team, you know, somebody who might be more of a Biden supporter, and you see him being taken out in a massive police action, does that mean it's real?
00:27:15.520No, unfortunately, I don't live in a country where I assume that a massive police action is based on real information.
00:28:29.640If you haven't caught yourself getting caught up in, you know, the confirmation bias of you just assume it's true, you should catch yourself.
00:28:39.980Just ask yourself, if this were Trump, would it be real?
00:28:44.700If this were Roger Stone being raided at 6 a.m., does that make it real?