Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2494 CWSA 06⧸03⧸24

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of human civilization.

00:00:08.320 It's called Coffee with Scott Adams.

00:00:11.200 I don't think you've had a better time in your whole life.

00:00:14.080 But if you'd like to take this experience up to levels that no human can even understand

00:00:19.320 with their tiny, smooth brains, all you need for that is a cup or a mug or a glass of tank or chalice

00:00:23.940 and a canteen jug of flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:26.700 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:00:27.880 I like coffee.

00:00:28.440 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine of the day that makes everything better.

00:00:32.720 It's called the Simultaneous Sippin' Happens. 0.53

00:00:35.820 About now.

00:00:37.500 I hope everybody's here.

00:00:43.460 So good.

00:00:46.840 Ladies and gentlemen, let's talk about some of the fake science before we get to the fake news.

00:00:54.740 Did anybody miss the sip?

00:01:00.060 I'm trying to time it so that I stall just long enough you all get in here.

00:01:04.260 All right.

00:01:05.220 Well, there's a study that says the number of college students diagnosed with PTSD has more

00:01:11.000 than doubled.

00:01:13.720 Do you believe that?

00:01:14.740 I believe that the number diagnosed is more than doubled.

00:01:18.800 Do you think that the number with PTSD has doubled?

00:01:22.080 Or do you think maybe it's just because it has a name?

00:01:26.460 Here's a mental experiment.

00:01:29.420 If I said to you tomorrow, there's a new condition.

00:01:32.900 It's a mental condition in which you worry too much about what other people will think about you.

00:01:39.380 And it stops you from doing some things.

00:01:42.600 And you'd say, well, that sounds like something that has some other name.

00:01:45.640 And I'd say, no, no.

00:01:46.380 It has a new name.

00:01:47.640 It has a new name.

00:01:48.340 There's a new condition.

00:01:49.120 How many people would be diagnosed with that condition tomorrow?

00:01:54.860 Millions.

00:01:56.660 Because as soon as you have a new name for something, suddenly you think, well, I got a name for it.

00:02:02.500 So let's see which side is the size of the lake.

00:02:07.480 Yeah, I think it has something to do with the fact that it became a popular thing that everybody had a name for.

00:02:12.640 And once they had a name for it, everybody had it or got diagnosed.

00:02:17.060 But on top of that, I do think that the lesser physical activity and maybe the ultra-processed foods and just the terror of living in the modern world, it might make it worse.

00:02:32.220 But I would think that 60% of it is just because they gave something a name that was a common experience before it had a name, meaning that people felt bad and traumatized for a variety of reasons that just didn't have a name.

00:02:47.060 Well, the Wall Street Journal says that AI might be slowing down and it's possible it was overrated.

00:02:56.540 Now, this falls squarely into the category of the things I told you before other people told you, which is it seemed to me, logically, that once you trained it on everything you could find, you know, all the good stuff, you would run out of things to make it smarter, which is what's happening.

00:03:16.400 They're running out of new material to train it, so it's as smart as it's going to get from the things it's already trained on.

00:03:24.260 So instead, they create what they call synthetic training material, which is they have one AI hallucinate, and then the hallucinations became what trains the other AI.

00:03:35.400 Now, on paper, I've got to say, that sounds like a terrible idea.

00:03:42.920 I don't even know how logically that could work.

00:03:46.660 Can you learn things from your own imagination?

00:03:50.740 Think about that as a human.

00:03:53.040 If you wanted to, like, get good at something, could you just close your eyes and imagine it in an artificial way until you were good at it?

00:04:00.400 I don't know that the machine can do that either.

00:04:03.520 I mean, they say it is, but I've got a question about what is the upside potential of that method.

00:04:10.800 Anyway, so we've got a few things going on that could make AI overrated.

00:04:14.300 Number one, the advances are slowing down, so each new version of it is not going to be twice as good as the one before.

00:04:22.940 It might be 5% better and even decreasing after that because they don't have anything new to train it on.

00:04:29.000 And it could be that it's a commodity as well.

00:04:36.160 So it takes a lot of money to train the big ones, but if all the big ones get trained on the same material, i.e. everything on the Internet, then they're all going to end up being about the same.

00:04:48.520 So maybe there's not that much.

00:04:50.520 It might be a commodity.

00:04:52.180 It might be like air so that there's nothing to pay for.

00:04:55.880 It's like, well, everybody's got a trained AI.

00:04:58.000 You know, you can get one for cheap.

00:05:00.300 So it could be that some of the profit will be taken out of it, except for, I suppose, NVIDIA will do great.

00:05:08.740 And there's also a thought that it will be useful for fewer things than we thought.

00:05:14.560 Who told you that first?

00:05:17.140 Me.

00:05:17.540 All the things.

00:05:19.560 Here's the problem.

00:05:20.800 When you imagine AI, you automatically and reflexively imagine that it's smarter than people or that it will be soon.

00:05:28.740 Whereas I said, how can it be smarter than people if it's trained on people?

00:05:34.200 I don't think you can be smarter than people if you're trained on people.

00:05:38.440 And if you were to say something smarter than people, you know what would happen?

00:05:42.660 People would reprogram you.

00:05:45.200 It's like, hmm, I don't recognize that as being true.

00:05:48.420 So I better get rid of that.

00:05:51.040 Yeah.

00:05:51.520 It really, logically, the way humans operate, I don't think they can build something smarter than themselves, at least with the current technology.

00:06:01.460 I'm allowing that there might be some future development that allows that to be true.

00:06:07.060 But if you're training it on humans, I don't know how it gets smarter than humans.

00:06:13.420 I mean, just my brain can't really hold how that's a possibility.

00:06:16.900 It could be smarter than an individual human on an individual skill.

00:06:23.640 And certainly things like math and planning and chess, you know, the obvious things that computers do, it'll be better than that.

00:06:29.280 But will it be better in, let's say, interpreting what's real, which seems to be the most important thing for us?

00:06:37.220 Can it tell which studies are a BS?

00:06:39.900 Will it know who's lying?

00:06:42.340 You know, that's the important stuff, the stuff that keeps you alive.

00:06:46.640 Anyway, Mexico had a vote.

00:06:49.500 The Amuse account on X reminds us that to vote in Mexico, you have to have a government-issued ID.

00:06:56.600 That's right.

00:06:57.360 To vote in Mexico, you need a government-issued ID.

00:07:03.500 But if you walk across the border, apparently you can vote in the United States with nothing, including citizenship.

00:07:14.900 Now, if you get caught, I think your vote won't count.

00:07:19.040 But I'm not so sure too many people are getting caught, so I don't know how that works.

00:07:25.700 Just something to be aware of.

00:07:28.220 It looks like the winner is Claudia Scheidenbaum. 1.00

00:07:32.460 Just the weirdest thing I never expected, that the next president of Mexico would be a Jewish woman. 1.00

00:07:39.320 I mean, she's a Mexican citizen, but she has a Jewish background.

00:07:44.400 There can't be a ton of that in Mexico.

00:07:47.820 But let me tell you what I liked about her.

00:07:51.040 I know nothing about her except I've seen some pictures, and her mentor was the current president.

00:07:57.580 But of all the things, this is the thing that stood out when I saw her pictures work in the crowds.

00:08:05.860 She's wearing a ponytail.

00:08:09.660 And she's pulling it off.

00:08:11.300 You know, not everyone can make a ponytail work.

00:08:13.640 But she totally pulls off a ponytail while she is, you know, doing her campaigning. 1.00

00:08:22.440 Do a lot of American politicians, do they ever wear ponytails in any official capacity?

00:08:31.100 I feel like I've seen AOC in a ponytail when she was casual, maybe. 0.94

00:08:35.980 I don't know.

00:08:36.300 I liked it.

00:08:37.520 She pulls off a ponytail.

00:08:40.220 Is it just me?

00:08:41.060 I'm always impressed by anybody who can simply pull off the look, right?

00:08:47.980 Because the reason that, you know, big hair is popular is that we like it better.

00:08:54.320 You have to have just the right look to pull off a ponytail, and she does. 1.00

00:09:00.000 That's the least important thing in politics, but there it is.

00:09:05.660 Here's a story which you probably thought was real news that maybe is fake news.

00:09:11.760 So today I will disappoint my audience by telling you things you thought were true that maybe are not so true.

00:09:17.400 You may have seen a story, as I did this morning, that there's a claim.

00:09:21.540 And I'm going to tell you what's wrong with the claim in a minute.

00:09:24.940 But the claim is that there are 74,000 mail-in ballots received with no record they were mailed out.

00:09:31.040 And that would be more than the margin of victory in Arizona in the 2020 election.

00:09:38.880 So that sounds pretty – does that sound pretty convincing?

00:09:42.340 So this is a fact, right?

00:09:45.220 It's a fact.

00:09:46.180 And then I'm going to tell you why you're misinterpreting it.

00:09:48.880 But it's a fact that you're supposed to know how many were mailed out, and then you're supposed to keep record of how many were received.

00:09:57.520 And don't you think it would be a problem if your record of how many you mailed out was way different than the ones you received?

00:10:05.020 Now, if you received way fewer than you mailed out, totally normal.

00:10:10.920 Not everybody mails them.

00:10:13.080 But if you received substantially more coming in than you ever sent out, that would be a huge signal for fraud.

00:10:21.580 Would you agree?

00:10:23.800 So would you agree that there's no other explanation for that?

00:10:29.120 Are you on the same page with me?

00:10:30.900 That there can't be any official explanation that would ever satisfy you if that's true.

00:10:37.100 And it's true. 0.56

00:10:38.820 It's confirmed to be true.

00:10:42.020 So how do you interpret that?

00:10:45.240 Think in your mind what could be any other explanation for why you get more in than you ever mailed out in the first place.

00:10:54.260 So therefore, there was pretty confirmed bad behavior, wouldn't you say?

00:11:00.900 All right.

00:11:02.460 So here's what you're going to learn today.

00:11:05.160 That what you think is you analyzing a situation is not what just happened.

00:11:11.980 That's not what happened.

00:11:13.660 What happened is you analyzed your own ability to imagine, and it failed you.

00:11:18.780 You couldn't imagine a situation in which that could be okay, despite the fact that everything about it looks like it's not okay.

00:11:29.060 All right.

00:11:29.560 Now I'm going to tell you what the official explanation was.

00:11:33.280 Now, I'm not going to say that the official explanation is correct.

00:11:37.360 I'm just going to say that as soon as I heard it, it sounded correct.

00:11:41.300 So a complete will, all right, you ready?

00:11:45.520 There are two ways to do mail-in voting.

00:11:48.800 One way is they mail it to you.

00:11:51.460 You get it in the mail.

00:11:52.760 You fill it out and you mail it back.

00:11:54.380 If that was the only way it happened, then it would be a clear sign of fraud if more came back than were ever mailed in.

00:12:03.260 But there are two ways.

00:12:05.460 One is it doesn't get mailed to you.

00:12:07.880 You walk into a voting center.

00:12:09.600 You pick it up from a shelf or something.

00:12:12.020 You fill it out and you drop it in a box.

00:12:14.780 That would be called a mail-in.

00:12:16.740 But nobody mailed it to you.

00:12:18.340 So you went to the place where they were sitting in a big pile, took one off the pile, filled it out, and dropped it in the box sitting next to it.

00:12:26.380 Did you know that?

00:12:29.040 Now, that's the claim from the official people who were debunking it.

00:12:33.120 Now, my point is not that the election was or was not fair.

00:12:38.920 I would say it's hard, you know, from my perspective to know one way or the other.

00:12:42.580 But the point is, if you can't imagine what the alternative was, the problem is in your head.

00:12:52.860 Your imagination is not up to the task.

00:12:58.220 Here's another case like that.

00:13:00.320 I believe that you're all familiar with the fine people hoax about Charlottesville and how something was taken out of context.

00:13:08.260 Democrats came to believe something that never happened.

00:13:10.720 And you know the drinking bleach hoax.

00:13:13.220 Democrats came to believe that Trump said maybe you should drink bleach.

00:13:16.700 Never happened.

00:13:19.340 It looks like there might be a version of that on the Republican side.

00:13:24.320 And it's called Ashley Biden's Diary.

00:13:28.800 So I tried talking about this yesterday with my audience and people just flipped out.

00:13:35.180 And I thought, oh, I'm going to stay away from this topic.

00:13:37.440 And I thought to myself, no, the flipping out is the story.

00:13:42.080 So I'm going to make you flip out.

00:13:45.420 I challenge my audience because I never talked about this story.

00:13:48.800 And I don't want to get into the details.

00:13:51.000 But I'll just say that there's a thing called Ashley Biden's Diary, which some people say is fake and some people say is real.

00:13:58.800 I think it's confirmed to be real as far as I know.

00:14:01.640 But then there's a claim that there's a specific entry in there or entries that would, if true, would be a horrible situation that Joe Biden was involved in.

00:14:15.580 I'm not even going to give you any details.

00:14:17.240 I'll just tell you this.

00:14:18.140 I said, can somebody show me that?

00:14:21.360 I keep hearing about it, but I've never seen it.

00:14:24.000 Like, can you show me the words in the diary?

00:14:26.340 And I said, I don't believe it exists.

00:14:29.560 So somebody showed it to me.

00:14:31.520 And then the following thing happened.

00:14:33.840 Here it is.

00:14:34.420 Look right here.

00:14:35.540 And I said, I'm looking at it.

00:14:37.240 I don't see what you said.

00:14:38.660 It's right here.

00:14:40.560 OK, I'm reading it.

00:14:41.960 I see every word you're pointing to.

00:14:43.880 I don't see what you're saying.

00:14:46.140 Now, does that mean that it's not there?

00:14:50.340 I'll tell you what I saw.

00:14:52.200 I saw something that was ambiguous that could be interpreted one of two ways.

00:14:57.860 One way is the president said you should drink bleach.

00:15:02.600 The other way is that something ordinary happened that was worded poorly.

00:15:09.500 Now, I'm not going to defend anything that anybody did.

00:15:12.640 So don't interpret this as me defending Joe Biden.

00:15:16.540 I'm telling you that the claims that I read all the time on the Internet are not supported by the thing that the claims derive from.

00:15:26.300 I looked at it myself.

00:15:28.460 Now, part of it is that there are two claims.

00:15:31.980 One has details.

00:15:33.180 And one is just an ambiguously worded thing that looks like it could be trouble, but you don't really know for sure.

00:15:41.600 So the one that's got details is not supported by any documents.

00:15:45.600 There's some kind of forgery floating around.

00:15:48.340 So if you heard the one that says under certain conditions a thing happened, there's nothing like that in the diary.

00:15:55.380 There's nothing that said under this condition this happened or how often or what ages were involved.

00:16:02.340 None of that's in the diary.

00:16:03.800 There's just one little thing that any normal person would be very concerned about.

00:16:10.320 But it's a lot like the drinking bleach thing.

00:16:13.580 What she said directly looks really troublesome, but it almost couldn't have been that.

00:16:21.620 In other words, the most provocative interpretation of what it meant is probably the least likely.

00:16:33.140 But if you want to believe that stuff, you kind of go to it automatically.

00:16:36.260 Now, if you add it to the hair sniffing and the weird behavior that we see in public, it does create an overall picture that says, maybe we should know more about this.

00:16:47.680 But to say that it's sort of documented and it's written writing and we can all read it.

00:16:51.780 Nope, I don't buy it.

00:16:53.900 I do buy that there's something there that raises your eyebrow all the way past the top of your head.

00:16:59.320 Can we agree on that?

00:17:00.300 I think we can agree that if you read the part that is confirmed to be real, you're going to have some questions.

00:17:08.040 But I think there's probably more than one way to explain what that is.

00:17:11.320 Very much like the if you didn't know that mail-in votes, sometimes you walk into the office and drop it in the box.

00:17:17.940 It's just that your imagination, getting back to my prior point, your imagination fails when you read the diary.

00:17:26.000 You say to yourself, I'm pretty sure this could only mean one thing and it's really, really bad.

00:17:33.640 But could it?

00:17:35.640 Can you imagine that if you heard the real story behind it, it would sound different?

00:17:40.240 I'm not saying it would.

00:17:42.380 I'm saying, can you imagine it?

00:17:44.840 Because I think we need a little better standard for blaming innocent people of crimes, especially bad ones.

00:17:51.760 It shouldn't be that you strongly suspect it.

00:17:55.660 I think we need to go a little bit better than that.

00:17:58.580 But I'm not saying it's false.

00:18:00.280 I'm just saying a little better evidence would be better.

00:18:03.740 All right.

00:18:06.460 Speaking of Biden's kids, Hunter Biden's going in for his felony gun charges.

00:18:11.440 You know, when this whole felony gun charge thing first came up, my first instinct is that this is not the thing that I want my legal system to be chasing.

00:18:24.740 Because I like the Second Amendment right.

00:18:27.220 And I know that the law, particular law, said he lied on his application and he was an addict and so he shouldn't get a gun.

00:18:34.900 And I understand the technical part of the law.

00:18:37.580 But as a Second Amendment supporter, I just had some problems with the fact that of all the things in the world, you would go after him for wanting to own a gun.

00:18:48.720 And probably he's in the category of people who are safer with one.

00:18:53.140 I mean, maybe the people around him are less safe, I suppose.

00:18:56.020 But I've completely changed my mind on this because the lawfare case.

00:19:01.620 Because I'm fairly certain that Joe Biden was behind the lawfare against Trump, I think his family is in play.

00:19:11.500 Sorry.

00:19:12.980 Yeah.

00:19:13.340 If Hitler were doing Hitler things and you had a chance to take on his kids, you'd do it. 1.00

00:19:20.300 You'd do it.

00:19:21.940 And Biden is doing Hitler things.

00:19:23.860 So when you're lawfaring the other candidate, trying to put him in jail and maybe trying to kill him, if the legal system comes for your kid, it's war.

00:19:37.200 It's war.

00:19:38.200 So I would say my empathy for Hunter has disappeared and I'm not proud of it.

00:19:43.900 I'm not proud of it because it takes me off principle.

00:19:49.080 Yeah.

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00:20:50.800 So, anyway, I'm not even going to comment on what I'm seeing in the comments.

00:20:58.020 All right.

00:20:59.260 You should know it's fake historian season.

00:21:03.500 We're in fake poll, fake news, fake historian, fake justice system territory as we approach the election.

00:21:11.240 But the one I always look forward to is the fake historians.

00:21:14.680 So, the bad guys have these historians who will say absolutely anything.

00:21:21.160 And they'll act like they're experts because they're historians.

00:21:24.600 Here's what we know today.

00:21:27.000 History is all fake.

00:21:29.680 History is fake.

00:21:30.960 We know that because we're watching fake history being written in real time during our lifetime.

00:21:36.360 What are the chances that just started?

00:21:39.200 We've always known that the winners write the history.

00:21:42.220 Yeah, there's nothing about our history that's accurate.

00:21:44.680 The facts, maybe some of the big facts about what war happened and, you know, who died and who was the king.

00:21:50.580 But all the narrative, the stuff about why anything happened, that's all fake.

00:21:56.540 How would you like your job to be a historian and you have to pretend that history is real?

00:22:02.820 That's a weird job.

00:22:04.480 So, if there's anybody you should not trust in this world, it's someone who thinks history is real.

00:22:09.280 Because they might also think the news is real today.

00:22:13.160 Because they live in a world in which they have to believe that fiction is real.

00:22:18.320 Because their job is to tell you that it is.

00:22:21.180 Hey, that fiction about history, it's totally real.

00:22:23.980 Listen to me.

00:22:24.640 I'm an expert on it.

00:22:25.560 So, one of these historians, Michael Beschloss, he's famous for coming out with that, those grinning things that are bad for Trump.

00:22:38.980 Have you seen the face where they're a little bit too happy about the things coming out of their mouth?

00:22:43.860 I don't even know how to describe that face.

00:22:48.460 But they're so happy, it looks like they're having some kind of physical dopamine, you know, overdose.

00:22:56.120 While they talk about how bad Trump could be or is or was.

00:23:01.080 So, it's like, oh, he's going to become, oh, oh, stealing our democracy.

00:23:06.700 Oh, wow.

00:23:07.860 I mean, you almost think they're tubing below the camera angle, because they're just way too happy about what they're saying bad about Trump.

00:23:16.180 And it's like creepy, uncanny valley stuff.

00:23:20.200 It's like, ooh, what's wrong with you?

00:23:23.000 Anyway, Beschloss is the top of that list.

00:23:26.080 And he says, he warns that Trump's second term could lead to dictatorship and anarchy.

00:23:32.280 The choice is actually pretty clear.

00:23:34.420 We've got a convicted felon.

00:23:35.920 He's a historian. 0.99

00:23:41.060 And he told you that Trump is a convicted felon. 1.00

00:23:45.800 And he left out the fact that it was complete bullshit lawfare. 0.99

00:23:49.620 And that nobody but Trump would have ever been convicted of it or even indicted. 0.97

00:23:55.200 He's a historian.

00:23:57.600 Who proved to you while you were watching.

00:24:00.020 He could not interpret correctly the narrative of our current time.

00:24:04.100 But his job is to tell you the narrative of all the prior times, which we all know at this point is fake news. 0.97

00:24:14.580 Now, could there be a more ridiculous character? 0.85

00:24:18.260 I can't imagine a more useless and worthless human being than somebody who studies history like it was real, knowing it isn't, and then gives you pronouncements about how because of the felony, which is fake, that means that Trump will turn into a dictator and anarchy, even though we already observed him not doing that. 0.98

00:24:42.980 That's the weakest take of all takes. 0.95

00:24:47.980 Meanwhile, Steve Bannon is set for a hearing on the 6th, so three days from now, to decide whether or not he's going to be remanded to prison.

00:25:00.920 Now, I don't know what that decision involves.

00:25:03.540 Wasn't he found guilty?

00:25:04.720 So, I don't know exactly what they're going to be talking about.

00:25:09.080 Is there some appeal that I don't know about?

00:25:12.000 Anyway, let's game this out.

00:25:17.460 Let's say Steve Bannon goes to jail.

00:25:20.160 Is that good for Democrats or bad for Democrats?

00:25:26.720 It's bad for Steve Bannon if he goes to jail.

00:25:29.100 Well, but my guess is that Trump's going to raise more money and it's going to make more people vote for Trump because it's going to look to people like yet another example of lawfare.

00:25:45.140 And whatever you thought happened to Trump, if you wondered if it might be coming for you, you're going to say to yourself, I don't know the details of this case.

00:25:55.900 I'm not sure what that Peter Navarro situation was.

00:25:58.860 I don't know what the Steve Bannon situation was.

00:26:01.320 But it all sounds like they're going after Trump supporters for details.

00:26:05.880 You know, like technicalities.

00:26:07.360 Now, you could argue whether they are, but it would feel like that to the casual news watcher.

00:26:13.960 So, I would think that if Steve Bannon goes to jail, it's going to be a boost for Trump.

00:26:19.220 I don't want him to go to jail.

00:26:21.620 But I feel like that's the way it would go at this point.

00:26:26.160 We're also in, as I said, not just the fake historian season, but also in the fake news season, even faker than usual because it's election season.

00:26:34.000 And The Hill has a story with a headline, Why are Americans feeling so negative about the economy?

00:26:42.300 Do you need to read that?

00:26:44.360 Is that an article you want to click on and say, huh, let's dig into this a little bit.

00:26:49.420 Why are Americans feeling so negative about the economy?

00:26:53.620 Does anybody have a question about why people are negative about the economy?

00:26:57.940 I'm pretty sure anybody who ever bought anything in the last year, anything, you know what's wrong with the economy.

00:27:08.040 Anybody who is white and tried to get a job recently, you sure know what's wrong with the economy. 0.91

00:27:14.740 Yeah.

00:27:15.060 No, it's not really a mystery.

00:27:17.540 I'm sorry, The Hill publication.

00:27:20.020 I don't really need to read your article about why Americans are feeling so negative about the economy. 0.91

00:27:25.840 And let me suggest that the tone of the title of the article, Why are Americans feeling so negative about the economy, suggests that whatever this article I didn't read says is going to be a steaming pile of bullshit about how everything is great. 0.99

00:27:43.000 And I don't know what's wrong with you just because you can't afford shit. 0.99

00:27:46.480 Why are you not seeing clearly that everything's terrific? 0.99

00:27:50.120 So fake news season.

00:27:52.280 You don't have to read that article.

00:27:53.420 It's also fake polling season.

00:27:57.420 I told you, and you'll be able to see it yourself, that there need to be a bunch of fake polls to balance out the real ones if things aren't going your way.

00:28:08.700 Because if you plan to cheat, or even if you just want to keep your supporters incentivized and feeling like they can win, you do some fake polls to balance things out.

00:28:20.220 Now, I don't know exactly which ones will be fake and which aren't, but it's a guarantee that there will be fake ones.

00:28:26.540 And when I say fake, all they need to do is tweak a few variables in how they ask the questions, and they can get any result they want.

00:28:35.360 So here's one, about half of Americans, this is according to a poll, ABC News, Ipsos poll.

00:28:44.820 Would you trust a corporate news entity like ABC to be associated with a poll during election season that was accurate?

00:28:57.720 Or would it be your expectation that this is really likely to be the kind of poll that would be faked?

00:29:06.440 Because they want the public to think that the felony conviction is causing people to be less inclined to vote for Trump, to make it safe for other people to say, oh, lots of people are changing their mind because of the felony?

00:29:20.220 I guess I could do that, too.

00:29:22.620 So the point of the polling is to tell you what normal people are thinking, even if they're not, so that you thinking you're a normal person, too, can maybe be a little more likely to be persuaded to be on the same side with the normal people.

00:29:38.040 So let's see what the normal people said.

00:29:39.900 About half of Americans believe Trump should end his campaign after the guilty verdict.

00:29:49.260 Half of Americans think he should end his campaign because of the guilty verdict.

00:29:54.880 Does that sound like a legitimate poll?

00:29:56.940 Before I even tell you the answer.

00:29:58.860 I mean, you didn't even need to know what the answer was.

00:30:01.920 Does that sound legitimate?

00:30:05.120 Let me tell you what's wrong with it.

00:30:07.880 If it wasn't jumping out at you, here's what's wrong with it.

00:30:12.220 This is a poll in which they ask you to compare Trump to Trump.

00:30:17.860 Did you get that?

00:30:19.980 It's a poll about the election in which you asked to compare Trump to himself.

00:30:26.420 So you're comparing Trump not convicted to a Trump convicted.

00:30:31.500 Is that what you're going to vote for?

00:30:33.140 When you go to the election booth or you mail in your ballot, are you going to say, huh, who do I vote for?

00:30:40.480 Trump who wasn't convicted or Trump who was convicted?

00:30:43.760 No, that's not your choice.

00:30:46.120 That's not your choice.

00:30:47.600 The choice is only, and the only one that matters, Trump versus Biden.

00:30:53.040 That's the only one that matters.

00:30:57.100 And if you ask a different question so that you can get an answer that sounds more like what you want to hear, that's an influence poll.

00:31:05.720 That's not about information.

00:31:08.200 All right.

00:31:08.400 At the same time, in the article on this, it says that Trump's approval level stayed the same.

00:31:17.100 So could it be true that half of Americans think he should drop out of the race at the same time that his approval level stayed the same?

00:31:25.500 If his approval levels had changed, maybe that would be telling you something.

00:31:30.740 All right.

00:31:31.060 So here's what I think.

00:31:33.220 I think it might be entirely true that half of Americans think he should end his campaign.

00:31:38.940 But do you know what half of Americans also think?

00:31:42.260 Probably half of Americans believe that this should not be a contest between Biden and Trump.

00:31:49.120 Wouldn't you agree?

00:31:50.480 Probably half of the country, if you gave them the choice, they'd say, you know, we do love Trump versus Biden.

00:31:57.220 But all things considered, like if we could just start with a blank slate, we'd go in with a 40-something DeSantis, 40-year-old, whatever age he is.

00:32:09.300 And we'd get more years of young people, and we wouldn't have the provocations and all the worry and everything.

00:32:16.600 So it seems to me this is a clearly a poll that's designed to drive opinions, as opposed to tell you what opinions are.

00:32:27.220 Maureen Dowd, who's a famous Trump non-lover for the New York Times, reports that her sister, who interestingly is a Republican, decided that she would vote for Trump because of the felony conviction.

00:32:42.060 It's her own sister.

00:32:46.720 So one of the famous anti-Trumpers is, to her credit, she's reporting it.

00:32:51.100 So, you know, you have to give her credit for transparency.

00:32:54.820 And, but the sister's reason is the interesting thing.

00:33:00.320 It wasn't just that it was unfair and people are saying, eh, the system's unfair.

00:33:05.000 You know, we're going to have to correct it by electing Trump.

00:33:07.160 It went deeper, and here's what I warned you about.

00:33:14.180 She was worried that there's nobody that would protect her.

00:33:20.340 So Maureen Dowd's sister is a Republican, and when she watched the top Republican get law-affared, she said, who would protect me?

00:33:30.940 You know, my father's dad.

00:33:32.980 Who would protect me if I got law-affared?

00:33:35.220 And so she realized that she's living in an environment that's too unsafe as a Republican.

00:33:44.380 And that she had to vote for the one person who might be able to protect her, and that's Trump.

00:33:51.160 Now that is important.

00:33:54.220 It's one person, so we don't know if that's a generalized feeling.

00:33:57.200 But it is what I predicted.

00:33:58.440 And what I predicted was empathy, that people would see Trump as themselves for the first time.

00:34:06.440 When Trump is in, you know, the Golden Towers, I don't say to myself, oh, he's just like me.

00:34:12.800 You know, when he's doing Trumpy things like rallies and things, I don't think he doesn't feel just like me.

00:34:18.560 But when he gets accused of something that's sketchy, and then the system closes in on him, that is me.

00:34:27.160 Because I live in the same system.

00:34:29.480 That system is surrounding me, touches me every moment I walk and live and breathe.

00:34:35.160 Same system.

00:34:35.880 If a guy, him, I feel it personally.

00:34:41.020 Now I'm a public figure, so maybe I'm at more risk than the average person.

00:34:45.240 But if somebody who's just a voter, an ordinary Republican, is going to say that I feel threatened because Trump got law fared, that's what I predicted.

00:34:55.260 I predicted empathy.

00:34:57.240 See, remember, empathy is not just your empathy for the other person.

00:35:01.000 There's always a little bit of it, which is, I'm glad it's not me.

00:35:05.880 Like, that's connected to empathy.

00:35:08.520 I'm glad it's not me.

00:35:10.340 So I think people feel this one personally.

00:35:13.860 I did.

00:35:15.100 Yeah, the conviction of Trump didn't feel like a political outcome to me.

00:35:20.240 It wasn't just because I'm supporting him for president.

00:35:23.500 It felt personal.

00:35:25.320 Like, I felt I was being handcuffed.

00:35:28.260 I mean, I can't explain it, but did anybody have the same experience?

00:35:31.700 It's that you just put yourself in the scene and you saw yourself unfairly convicted and law fared?

00:35:38.780 Because we've all been, I think most of us have had the experience where the system was against them unfairly.

00:35:45.600 It could have been anything.

00:35:46.760 It could have been your school administrators, you know, your job.

00:35:49.740 But everybody's felt the system being against them.

00:35:53.060 And then we watched it happen to Trump.

00:35:57.260 Anyway, here's the other way they use the fake polls.

00:36:02.720 I think this was maybe in some publication.

00:36:05.920 They said that Trump has a 1.8% lead based on 173 polls.

00:36:11.740 So he's up 1.8% based on the average of 173 polls.

00:36:19.580 How many of those polls are credible?

00:36:23.020 Well, during fake polling season, you don't want Trump to look like he's up five because that would be too big to rig.

00:36:30.820 So you put a bunch of fake ones in the mix, and then all the people who are trying to be reasonable, but of course they're making a mistake, they say, well, the reasonable thing would be to take the average.

00:36:43.060 No.

00:36:45.300 No.

00:36:45.940 The reasonable thing would be to take the average if you knew that they all did a similarly credible job of doing their work.

00:36:54.280 But you don't average the fake polls with the real ones.

00:36:59.700 That's what they did.

00:37:01.340 Because I'm sure that some percentage of these are legitimately faked.

00:37:06.640 Right?

00:37:06.920 In other words, the people who did them knew what they were doing when they did them.

00:37:11.420 You don't average fake polls and real ones.

00:37:14.740 That's nothing.

00:37:16.100 That's trying to hide the ball.

00:37:18.500 That's what that is.

00:37:20.800 Meanwhile, Trump is on TikTok, as you know, but here's a surprise.

00:37:24.920 Somebody named Tara Palmieri, I don't know what her role is, but she seems to know some stuff.

00:37:32.880 She said that the pro-Trump content is 10 to 12 times more popular than pro-Biden stuff on TikTok.

00:37:39.380 And she says two TikTok officials told her that.

00:37:43.480 That since November, there's been two times more pro-Trump content than Biden.

00:37:48.400 I don't know how that matches with the 10 times more, but okay.

00:37:52.440 And according to an internal TikTok analysis, Trump content beat Biden content by 10 to 1 in likes and 12 to 1 in views.

00:38:04.640 Does that sound real?

00:38:06.500 Do you believe that TikTok is pushing hard for Trump?

00:38:10.240 Here's one way to explain it, and I don't know if this is enough.

00:38:17.320 Biden is not meme-able, but Trump is super meme-able.

00:38:22.880 Like, the Trump memes are funny, and they're interesting.

00:38:26.000 Have you seen the one where Trump is riding the back of a giant golden eagle, and the golden eagle picks up Biden from the water like a fish?

00:38:37.300 And Trump is like, yeah!

00:38:39.040 Have you seen that one?

00:38:40.700 It is terrific.

00:38:43.060 It's just terrific.

00:38:44.820 And even if it weren't an election, you'd laugh at it because it's so well done.

00:38:48.560 So, I just don't know that the left can meme.

00:38:53.920 You know, we've been saying that for years.

00:38:55.620 I think the quality of the meme has got to have a big impact on who views it and likes it.

00:39:00.800 So, I would think that because Trump is the most meme-able character in the history of characters, and Biden is the least meme-able character in the history of politicians, at least, you would expect more Trump action.

00:39:17.460 But that there's so much even in a, what you would imagine would be a more left-leaning vehicle is weird.

00:39:24.940 It does suggest that China maybe is not putting their finger on the scales, or do you imagine that China is putting their finger on the scales of TikTok because they want Trump to win?

00:39:40.720 Can you think of a reason why China would want Trump to win?

00:39:46.040 Think of a reason for that.

00:39:48.160 I've got one.

00:39:50.200 Why would they want Trump to win?

00:39:51.860 Now, if you're a Trump supporter, you're going to immediately go to, oh, because they can negotiate with him.

00:39:58.880 Right?

00:40:00.180 I don't know.

00:40:02.260 Maybe.

00:40:03.740 Allow me to suggest another possibility.

00:40:08.040 If China is watching the news in America, like everybody else, you know, they must have people who are good at English and watching the news and summarizing it for the leaders.

00:40:18.460 I'm sure that's happening in some form.

00:40:21.860 They would be watching the United States grappling with the most controversial character of all time, and it might look like the election of Trump would tear the country apart.

00:40:33.180 So it's entirely possible that from China's perspective, if they believe MSNBC and they believe CNN, at least half of CNN, they might think that the worst thing that could happen to America is for Trump to be reelected because it'll tear the country apart.

00:40:50.660 They might be right.

00:41:20.660 Maybe they think he's bad for America.

00:41:25.460 Maybe.

00:41:26.420 Don't know.

00:41:28.280 Here's my mini theme for today. 1.00

00:41:30.260 Democrats have an idiot problem in leadership. 1.00

00:41:32.980 I'm going to give you several examples of idiots in the leadership of Democrats. 1.00

00:41:38.220 You know, Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, they were really big on ESG. 1.00

00:41:46.300 And then he said, ESG is really embarrassing us.

00:41:49.680 We better pull back because all the DEI thing completely exploded and embarrassed them.

00:41:54.680 Now he's saying that you need, like, clean energy that isn't intermittent because we're going to need so much for our data centers.

00:42:03.940 Do you know what that means?

00:42:05.540 Pro nuclear.

00:42:06.940 And maybe get your finger off of all the things that would stop energy from being produced. 1.00

00:42:12.060 I think Larry Fink is who I'd call a smart idiot. 1.00

00:42:17.220 If he and I did an IQ test, I think he'd beat me. 1.00

00:42:21.800 I think he probably could get into a better school than I could have at the time, et cetera.

00:42:25.960 So I'm not saying his IQ isn't high. 1.00

00:42:27.780 But with this ESG stuff, we observe him acting like an idiot. 1.00

00:42:34.620 Like maybe he didn't understand the implications of what would happen if he made ESG his centerpiece of his thing. 0.99

00:42:42.260 But it looks like it all blew up in his face.

00:42:45.500 And I think I could have told him.

00:42:48.240 I think I could have told him exactly where that would end up. 1.00

00:42:51.760 So he's a smart idiot. 1.00

00:42:53.920 And I think what causes that is obviously not the smart part, because the smart part seems on tap, you know, seems fine. 1.00

00:43:02.040 There's something about the gaslighting and the brainwashing that the Democrats get that will make even the smartest person turn into an idiot. 1.00

00:43:12.140 But then they have real idiots, too, like Maxine Waters. 1.00

00:43:15.180 So she's saying that Trump supporters are, quote, domestic terrorists. 1.00

00:43:22.240 And she wonders if they're preparing a civil war against us.

00:43:25.340 So she said that again recently.

00:43:27.500 Now, you could say to yourself, well, she doesn't believe those things.

00:43:32.740 She's just saying them for political purposes.

00:43:35.040 But if she is, she's the worst leader ever.

00:43:39.220 Because this is a terrible thing for a leader to be saying. 1.00

00:43:42.660 So I'd say she's a leader and she's an idiot. 1.00

00:43:45.180 But unlike Larry Fink, who might have a high IQ, there's no indication she's anything but dumb. 1.00

00:43:52.380 I watched a conversation online between Megyn Kelly and David Pakman. 0.98

00:44:00.240 Now, David Pakman is a prominent pundit podcaster on the left.

00:44:05.660 And what I learned was that when somebody on the left talks to a well-informed person on the right, it always goes the same way.

00:44:15.680 The person on the left realizes that they haven't been getting correct news the entire time.

00:44:20.580 So Megyn Kelly fact-checked him so hard, I think he left his jockstrap a block back.

00:44:28.180 I mean, he got banged down hard.

00:44:30.000 And when I was done with it, I said to myself, huh, David Pakman does not look nearly as smart as Megyn Kelly.

00:44:38.740 Like, they don't look like they're even on the same level, really.

00:44:43.340 But David Pakman's a prominent voice on the left. 0.98

00:44:48.360 And compared to Megyn Kelly, he came off as an idiot, but he would be a normal person. 0.95

00:44:55.540 He has normal IQ, but I think he too, well, based on what I saw, he didn't know enough about what was true. 0.99

00:45:04.020 So his opinions were all ridiculous, because he didn't know what the facts were. 0.77

00:45:09.880 And when Megyn Kelly sort of informed him what was true, he caused like some kind of weird cognitive dissonance in him. 0.96

00:45:17.580 So you have to watch that. 1.00

00:45:21.380 Then, so that's more idiots. 1.00

00:45:27.040 Let's see. 1.00

00:45:27.800 David Sachs, on the X profile, points out that the Hillary campaign operative, who cooked the books to hide payments for the Steele dossier, became the SEC chairman.

00:45:41.260 Then the Biden campaign operative, who orchestrated the 51 spies who lied about Hunter's crimes on the laptop, I guess, became Secretary of State.

00:45:53.280 And then David Sachs says, Dems know how to reward election interference. 1.00

00:45:57.800 Now, I'm going to add this to my theme of Democrats having idiots for leaders. 0.99

00:46:04.160 In this case, they have criminals as leaders, because they were actually promoted for doing things that maybe weren't technically illegal, but look like they should have been. 0.99

00:46:15.800 How smart is it to promote the people who get caught?

00:46:19.040 The reason that we're talking about these two people who got rewarded is because we know what they did.

00:46:28.320 I'm going to go with Trump.

00:46:30.160 I prefer people who don't get caught.

00:46:33.580 I think the smart people can do bad things and not get caught.

00:46:39.380 But the Democrats have people who aren't smart enough to get away with it because they all got caught, but they got rewarded anyway.

00:46:47.780 So I guess I should ask, who's the smart one here?

00:46:50.440 Is it me or them?

00:46:51.220 They got promoted, so maybe they're the smart ones in this case.

00:46:56.800 Then we have the Biden dementia tapes, still trying to get those.

00:47:01.140 Apparently, they've been locked in a skiff so that somebody can go listen to them, but they can't let you listen to it.

00:47:09.260 That's right.

00:47:09.780 So then when, let's say, some Republican listens to it and comes back and says, oh, it was really terrible, he was in bad shape, all they have to do is send out Adam Schiff to say, no, he's not, he's fine.

00:47:22.580 I listened to the same thing.

00:47:23.620 So they're going to skiff-shift us. 0.87

00:47:27.080 The play is the skiff-shift.

00:47:29.020 The skiff-shift, as you put it in the skiff, this highly secure place where nobody can take a picture of it or take a copy.

00:47:35.520 They can only experience it inside that room.

00:47:38.880 So all they have to do is send their best liars into the room, and they'll come out and say, no, it was fine.

00:47:44.700 I listened to it, too.

00:47:45.500 It was fine.

00:47:47.040 The play here is so obvious.

00:47:49.580 It's just so obvious that it's a skiff-shift play.

00:47:52.740 Yeah, it's just a standard skiff-shift.

00:47:58.780 Well, my questions have been answered about the Soros organization, or at least why Alex Soros is going along with his dad's ideas that are terrible and destroying the world.

00:48:09.440 There's a clip of him at the WEF just talking about a topic. 1.00

00:48:13.900 And I'll just give you one quote to show you that what we learned from watching him talk in public, he seems to be an idiot. 1.00

00:48:23.700 He just actually seems to be dumb, and maybe really dumb, based on the clip. 1.00

00:48:32.440 So he's talking to the public, he goes, one man, Donald Trump, literally came in and just took that, took that, took that all away. 0.99

00:48:39.800 You know, we had these customs, these, well, you know, the customs, and he came in, he'd like Donald Trump, he took it all away from us.

00:48:59.060 Now, I might be exaggerating a little bit on there, but you have to listen to it.

00:49:06.660 If you listen to him talking, you'll immediately understand why nobody asks him for interviews.

00:49:12.620 There's no way he's going to say yes to an interview because he's incompetent talking in public.

00:49:17.620 In fact, you would be hard-pressed to find anybody who can't talk in public as much as he can't talk in public.

00:49:24.200 He's like, he's really, really bad at it.

00:49:27.580 So he probably just says no because he can't talk in public.

00:49:32.120 I guess in that case he had to try, but it was just a train wreck.

00:49:36.420 Yeah.

00:49:37.800 Wow.

00:49:38.240 And he must be under the Trump is Hitler train because, you know, he thinks, he thinks not only is Trump stealing your democracy, but he's stealing your unwritten customs.

00:49:54.200 That's right.

00:49:55.780 Trump stole your unwritten rules.

00:49:58.620 That's what he said in public.

00:50:00.980 Wow.

00:50:02.480 Also, Constantine Kissin did a great thing for the world that didn't work out at all.

00:50:10.540 You know how I've been saying that we need to have, like, legitimate debates on topics where you've got plenty of time,

00:50:17.500 but you've also got a strong host, a moderator, who can really keep you in line.

00:50:23.720 And don't do it in, like, this political way where you let the politicians lie.

00:50:27.940 You know, just get some experts.

00:50:29.480 Some people really know what they're talking about.

00:50:31.700 Put them together.

00:50:33.140 Put a strong moderator in the middle.

00:50:35.820 Boom.

00:50:36.320 Everybody gets better informed.

00:50:38.300 And maybe you can work something out.

00:50:39.860 That's what I thought until yesterday.

00:50:45.080 And then I watched Constantine Kissin do, again, I'll say, you know, a great thing for the public,

00:50:52.220 which is he tried to pull off the very thing we think we wanted.

00:50:58.700 And the topic was Gaza and what should have Israel done and what should they do now, I guess.

00:51:04.360 And he had two sides.

00:51:07.900 And here's the model that I held in my head until that moment.

00:51:12.720 When two parties disagree on something, you know, they might want different things.

00:51:19.180 You know, some wants this, the other wants that.

00:51:21.800 Usually, unless the parties are, you know, just totally bad people, you can usually find a compromise.

00:51:29.300 You can find some way to, you know, find a negotiated settlement that everybody's not perfectly happy with, but happy enough.

00:51:40.660 And so we imagine that that model, which works all the time in business, right?

00:51:45.480 In business, you're always negotiating and usually you can work stuff out.

00:51:49.280 So why can't they?

00:51:51.280 Well, I found out why.

00:51:53.540 And I'm going to tell you a reframe here that will explain a lot going forward.

00:52:01.140 It's one I hadn't noticed before.

00:52:03.460 It goes like this.

00:52:05.140 The people who are on the two sides of the Gaza debate did not disagree on what should be done per se,

00:52:14.700 although that's what it looked like on the surface.

00:52:17.240 They disagreed on reality.

00:52:20.560 They disagreed on reality.

00:52:23.540 And they weren't even close.

00:52:25.920 And let me tell you, you can't negotiate a middle ground between two different versions of reality.

00:52:34.120 You can't get there from here.

00:52:36.020 So any thought that it could ever be negotiated while the two are living in completely different realities of how we got here and who's the bad guy and who's the good guy,

00:52:45.520 you can't negotiate that.

00:52:49.160 It's completely absurd.

00:52:50.540 I actually used to think, and by the way, this is something that one of the debate people said.

00:52:57.960 In effect, the pro-Palestinian arguers said the Palestinians have a set of demands that are somewhat reasonable.

00:53:11.120 Now, this would be their view.

00:53:12.260 And if you were to make some action toward addressing their demands, you could stop the terrorism.

00:53:21.260 So you could stop another October 7th by simply addressing the legitimate concerns of the Palestinians.

00:53:29.040 And once they saw that things were moving in the right direction, the reason for terrorism would go away and they'd say, oh, this is working.

00:53:36.660 So we'll just keep doing this peaceful negotiating because, you know, we got a few things.

00:53:41.340 We'll get some more.

00:53:41.980 That can't work if you're living in different realities.

00:53:48.200 That only works if you're in the same reality and you want different things and then you have something you can work with because you don't want the same things, the same things that are limited resources.

00:53:59.440 You can't make a deal if you want, if everybody wants the thing that there's only one of.

00:54:03.620 You can't can't solve that.

00:54:06.260 But in a normal situation, you want work.

00:54:09.220 I want money.

00:54:10.340 We can make a deal because we don't want the same thing.

00:54:13.400 And we live in the same reality.

00:54:15.260 The reality is you have a job.

00:54:17.260 I have skills.

00:54:18.400 You have money.

00:54:19.520 Same reality.

00:54:20.820 You can always make that work.

00:54:22.820 But.

00:54:24.740 Here are some of the things I heard.

00:54:26.360 And let me say let me tell you who I sided with. 0.99

00:54:29.840 Both sides are completely fucked up. 1.00

00:54:32.180 All right. 1.00

00:54:33.980 So there's a pro-Israel side.

00:54:35.820 Everything they're doing is what you have to do on October 7th.

00:54:38.480 And then the other side was, well, maybe if you were nicer to the Palestinians, you wouldn't be in this situation. 0.96

00:54:44.440 Both crazy.

00:54:46.380 There are two realities that I don't recognize at all.

00:54:49.680 So.

00:54:50.900 But let me let me give you an example.

00:54:54.380 The pro-Israel guy argued that all over the world, there are examples of locals who got

00:55:02.080 displaced and should have the right of return like the Palestinians.

00:55:08.260 But his point is, why are you only looking at Israel like the one place where the people who got kicked out should have the right to come back?

00:55:15.720 When all over the world, there are people who have been kicked out of all kinds of places and then nobody's saying right of return for them.

00:55:23.580 So why are you saying it for Israel?

00:55:25.540 Does that sound like a good argument to you?

00:55:30.180 What do all of the other places have to do with this?

00:55:33.540 Nothing.

00:55:34.940 Nothing.

00:55:35.380 It's not even on point.

00:55:40.080 Well, what do you think of Israel and the Palestinians should do? 1.00

00:55:42.680 Well, there's this totally other situation.

00:55:45.720 No, that's just another situation.

00:55:49.120 To imagine that that's like a leading point or, you know, you're winning your argument if you take that out.

00:55:54.660 That's insane.

00:55:55.340 Let me tell you the only model that makes any sense whatsoever.

00:55:59.000 Whoever has the power to hold land holds it until somebody else has more power and then they take it away from you.

00:56:10.460 That's all it is.

00:56:12.100 To imagine that there's some narrative that we should all accept on either side or anything in the middle is really absurd.

00:56:20.980 You can pick your narrative if you want, but it doesn't make any difference.

00:56:24.940 It's just power.

00:56:26.620 And now let me ask you this.

00:56:28.260 Imagine you're a Palestinian. 0.96

00:56:32.040 And by the way, one of the participants, what was her name?

00:56:39.660 Forgot to write it down.

00:56:42.360 But Constantine later called her DEI Barbie.

00:56:46.580 Apparently things didn't go well toward the end of the debate.

00:56:50.580 He called her DEI Barbie.

00:56:53.980 After the fact, they were arguing on X.

00:56:56.520 But that's pretty gutsy to do that.

00:57:06.000 Anyway, one of the points she made is she said that there are Palestinians.

00:57:10.200 I don't know if this is literally true or it just sounds good.

00:57:13.300 Who still have the key.

00:57:14.820 To the door where they used to live in Israel. 0.99

00:57:20.020 And now there's somebody else living there.

00:57:22.740 And they weren't compensated.

00:57:25.520 Now, what do you do about them?

00:57:26.860 And it's worse.

00:57:30.620 It wasn't even that Israel, you know, conquered the land and took it over.

00:57:35.320 Somebody else gave them their house.

00:57:38.240 So just imagine you're a Palestinian. 0.95

00:57:40.060 And you wake up one day, it's like, hey, the UN decided that Israel owns this land.

00:57:50.480 But do they own my house?

00:57:53.780 Well, no.

00:57:55.460 So, but things are going to get really tough when they start moving in.

00:58:01.260 What do you mean?

00:58:02.820 Well, I mean, legally you can keep your house.

00:58:06.340 But things might get a little tense once you're outnumbered.

00:58:12.460 And next thing you know, if you're a Palestinian, it looks like, and I'm saying this is how it would feel. 1.00

00:58:19.060 I try to put myself in this situation and say, how would I feel?

00:58:23.060 Here's what it feels like.

00:58:24.800 The UN gave your house to your enemies.

00:58:28.380 And never talked to you about it.

00:58:30.640 Wait a minute.

00:58:31.160 The UN gave my house to my enemy?

00:58:36.540 And I wasn't consulted?

00:58:40.860 Now you could go back and say, yes, but before that, you know, the Jews lived there forever.

00:58:46.420 And then the, you know, the Arabs kicked him out.

00:58:50.200 And so really it's the Jews coming home. 0.75

00:58:52.560 And, you know, you could argue it forever.

00:58:55.000 But here's one of the things that Constantine helpfully tried to inject.

00:59:00.120 Because both sides wanted to talk about the past.

00:59:03.740 You know, the past grievances.

00:59:05.760 Now your instinct says, if you're locked in the past, you'll never make progress.

00:59:11.820 So Constantine is trying to say, all right, all right, you know, we could talk about the

00:59:16.200 past, but what should we do today?

00:59:19.700 Like, what are you going to do?

00:59:21.000 Like, what should Israel have done differently?

00:59:23.960 And it turns out that neither side was willing to forget the past.

00:59:28.160 Because they say, you're not really going to understand the present without the past.

00:59:31.820 You know, separating them doesn't make sense.

00:59:33.700 But when they say the past, what they mean is their narrative of the past, which is fiction.

00:59:40.700 Both the narratives are fiction.

00:59:42.680 There's not a true one and a fake one.

00:59:44.860 You knew that, right?

00:59:47.320 And this kind of stuff, there's no real one.

00:59:49.780 There's always just the two narratives.

00:59:51.920 You know, and each will leave out the inconvenient things for the other ones.

00:59:55.380 So I'm, just to clarify, I'm pro-Israel being a country, and they're our ally, and I'm glad

01:00:05.740 that we're supporting them, et cetera.

01:00:09.960 But there's no truth.

01:00:12.340 Like, if you think any of it has to do with truth, I think you're lost.

01:00:16.500 It's power.

01:00:17.980 The Israelis have the power to hold the country. 0.95

01:00:20.500 They're going to build it.

01:00:21.640 It'll, you know, they're doing lots of good things.

01:00:23.380 Um, and that's the end of the story.

01:00:26.200 I could have an opinion about it, but it wouldn't change the fact that they have the power to

01:00:29.600 hold it.

01:00:30.560 That's kind of the whole story.

01:00:33.340 But I don't believe, uh, in the, if you give the Palestinians what they're asking for, 1.00

01:00:39.480 everything will be good.

01:00:41.300 Because anybody who's pro-Palestinian likes to do the thing where they ignore the, 1.00

01:00:45.860 we want to kill every Jew and take all your, all your land, which they would say used 1.00

01:00:50.980 to be their land. 1.00

01:00:51.620 So you can't really negotiate if part of the negotiators want you dead and that's their

01:00:57.460 final offer.

01:00:58.740 So to imagine this is negotiatable, it's just kind of crazy, kind of crazy.

01:01:05.000 So I'm going to give, uh, Constantine big props for holding the event.

01:01:09.920 I think, uh, PBD did a similar thing with, uh, Chris Cuomo and, uh, comic Dave Smith.

01:01:16.560 Uh, and, uh, that certainly produced some good entertainment and, uh, I'd like to see more

01:01:24.220 of it, but I would say that there's no point in having a debate where if you're starting

01:01:29.840 from different realities and that's not going to change.

01:01:32.240 So, uh, and meanwhile, there's some confusion over this so-called ceasefire peace plan roadmap

01:01:40.940 thing that Biden says is Israel's idea, but Israel says, no, we just tweaked a few things.

01:01:47.860 And then somebody else says, um, somebody else says, uh, what'd they say?

01:01:57.340 I've confused two things here.

01:01:58.720 Oh, it's strange that they say it's an Israeli proposal and at the same time, they say Israel

01:02:05.720 needs to agree to it.

01:02:08.000 So I guess the Biden administration has said, oh yeah, this is Israel's idea as soon as they

01:02:13.560 agree to it.

01:02:16.100 Wait, if it's their idea, didn't they start with agreeing with their own idea or did they

01:02:23.980 have an idea they didn't agree with and they've got to be convinced to agree with their own

01:02:29.400 idea or is it possible that Biden has been lying to us the entire time?

01:02:35.340 I'm going to go with lying to us the entire time.

01:02:39.500 Um, and I, I like the, uh, getting back to Constantine's, uh, debate here.

01:02:45.760 One of the guys on the, uh, pro-Israel side said that all Hamas has to do is stop fighting

01:02:51.720 and losing wars and, uh, everything will be fine.

01:02:55.980 I used to believe that too.

01:02:58.280 I used to believe that if just the Palestinians would just stop losing wars, they could negotiate

01:03:05.400 with the rest of the world and get what they wanted.

01:03:08.980 I don't think there's any chance of that because there's a hardcore faction that will never

01:03:15.480 stop doing it.

01:03:16.700 And it doesn't matter if half of them want peace, if the other half doesn't, there's

01:03:22.280 nothing you can do with that now.

01:03:24.480 So there, it seems that, you know, there's enough people who want to destroy all of Israel

01:03:29.380 that there's nothing you can do.

01:03:33.380 It's just power.

01:03:34.120 They will keep coming and Israel will keep beating them back as long as they can. 0.97

01:03:40.720 Anyway, then it looked like, uh, one of the things that Constantine was complaining about

01:03:45.760 is that, uh, the woman who is the woman he called the DEI Barbie, uh, after the event,

01:03:52.480 not during the event, but, um, that she wouldn't answer a question, but I didn't see that exactly.

01:03:59.960 I know what he was talking about, but that she wouldn't ask, answer the question of what

01:04:04.860 Israel should have done or should do. 1.00

01:04:07.480 And it sounded like she was just talking about the past, but she did kind of meander back to

01:04:12.660 it and here was her answer that Israel should be more like the United States, more of a melting pot.

01:04:19.600 And although people acknowledge that they're already, you know, Islamic people, uh, living

01:04:24.980 within Israel happily, uh, and there are no Jewish people living in Gaza happily.

01:04:29.660 Uh, but here's the thing.

01:04:37.540 Um, oh, I had some good point I was going to make there that I just lost while I was talking

01:04:44.860 about the other stuff.

01:04:46.540 All right.

01:04:47.140 Well, I don't think that, uh, just stopping fighting is going to fix anything because there

01:04:53.720 seems to be some permanent difference in reality.

01:04:56.660 And I guess that's the bottom line.

01:04:58.480 All right.

01:04:58.780 Ladies and gentlemen, that's all I've got for you on today's news.

01:05:02.340 Thanks for joining.

01:05:03.640 I'm going to go, uh, talk to the locals people privately.

01:05:08.420 And, uh, I'm going to say goodbye to X and YouTube and rumble.

01:05:13.880 Uh, and I'm going to stall a little bit and drink some coffee because I understand there's

01:05:19.500 a delay in the transmission.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - June 03, 2024

Episode 2494 CWSA 06⧸03⧸24

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