Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2541 CWSA 07⧸20⧸24

00:00:00.000 Claudia was leaving for her pickleball tournament.

00:00:02.160 I've been visualizing my match all week.

00:00:04.700 She was so focused on visualizing that she didn't see the column behind her car on her backhand side.

00:00:10.680 Good thing Claudia's with Intact, the insurer with the largest network of auto service centers in the country.

00:00:16.400 Everything was taken care of under one roof, and she was on her way in a rental car in no time.

00:00:20.840 I made it to my tournament and lost in the first round.

00:00:24.300 But you got there on time.

00:00:26.160 Intact Insurance, your auto service ace.

00:00:28.440 Certain conditions apply.

00:00:30.000 When I found out my friend got a great deal on a wool coat from Winners, I started wondering.

00:00:35.560 Is every fabulous item I see from Winners?

00:00:38.620 Like that woman over there with the designer jeans. 1.00

00:00:41.340 Are those from Winners?

00:00:42.840 Ooh, or those beautiful gold earrings.

00:00:45.320 Did she pay full price?

00:00:46.660 Or that leather tote?

00:00:47.680 Or that cashmere sweater?

00:00:48.860 Or those knee-high boots?

00:00:50.360 That dress?

00:00:51.140 That jacket?

00:00:51.820 Those shoes?

00:00:52.840 Is anyone paying full price for anything?

00:00:55.780 Stop wondering.

00:00:57.040 Start winning.

00:00:57.600 Winners.

00:00:58.580 Find fabulous for less.

00:01:00.660 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of human civilization.

00:01:05.500 It's called Coffee with Scott Adams, and I'm pretty sure you'll never have a better time.

00:01:10.160 And today's going to be extra special good, because I got up early and I'm feeling great,

00:01:15.080 and the news was funny.

00:01:16.620 So stay with me.

00:01:18.200 Today's going to be fun.

00:01:19.820 Best thing you'll see on a Saturday morning when everybody else is taking the day off lazy.

00:01:24.060 And if you'd like to take this experience up to levels that nobody can even understand

00:01:30.120 with their tiny, shiny human brains, all you need is a cup or mug or a glass of tanker,

00:01:34.500 chalice or stein, a canteen jug, a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:01:38.100 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:01:39.200 I like coffee.

00:01:40.660 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine of the day,

00:01:43.980 the thing that makes everything better.

00:01:45.200 It's called The Simultaneous Sip, and it happens now.

00:01:48.840 Go.

00:01:52.920 Ah, transcendence.

00:01:57.780 Well, I'd like to make an announcement to begin with.

00:02:02.060 Just a clarification, the MSNBC host Katie Turr is not related to Cat Turd.

00:02:13.380 Cat Turd is an entirely different person than Katie Turr. 0.57

00:02:18.440 I just needed to clarify that before we go on.

00:02:21.980 ABC is reporting that they've discovered the largest uncontacted tribe deep in the Peruvian Amazon.

00:02:29.520 So there's a group of 750 people who have had no contact with modern civilization in the Peruvian Amazon.

00:02:39.940 And somebody got a picture of them.

00:02:42.260 And here's the thing.

00:02:43.780 They look really healthy and happy.

00:02:46.620 Maybe being uncontacted is a pretty good deal.

00:02:50.100 Because they look way too healthy and happy.

00:02:52.520 It's like, you know, they're just hanging out on the beach.

00:02:55.080 I'm thinking, huh, I wouldn't mind being uncontacted.

00:02:58.820 And that's looking pretty good.

00:03:01.220 Depression levels?

00:03:02.640 Probably none.

00:03:04.260 Probably none.

00:03:05.520 But it makes me wonder.

00:03:08.080 Okay, the reason that we know they exist, but we don't contact them,

00:03:12.860 is that we fear that contact with them would destroy them.

00:03:16.780 So the only reason they don't know about us is that we've decided it's for their own good.

00:03:22.620 Which opens up the possibility.

00:03:26.640 I think you know where this is going.

00:03:29.440 That there's somebody who is more advanced than we are.

00:03:32.640 Who, for exactly the same reason, leaves us uncontacted.

00:03:37.140 But we keep seeing these UFOs and stuff.

00:03:39.320 We're like, huh, what's that?

00:03:41.020 And then I was looking at the photograph.

00:03:44.380 The photograph of the uncontacted tribe.

00:03:47.160 And it was obviously taken from either some kind of aircraft or drone.

00:03:52.200 Which means that the people on the beach were looking up at what they thought was a UFO.

00:03:57.020 And saying, huh, what the hell is that?

00:04:00.460 So, I'd just like to put out the possibility that there's an advanced civilization of humans who live below the ocean.

00:04:11.560 That's where I'd put them.

00:04:13.100 They live below the ocean and they just come out once in a while to check us out.

00:04:16.720 And when we see their UFOs, we go, huh, I wonder what that is.

00:04:22.280 Just putting it out there.

00:04:23.820 Just a possibility.

00:04:24.820 Well, Boris Johnson says he's optimistic that if Trump wins the election, he can negotiate an end to the Ukraine war.

00:04:35.400 Boris Johnson said that.

00:04:37.960 Where'd that come from?

00:04:39.860 And Zelensky has reached out to Trump to make friends with him.

00:04:45.800 Probably thinks something good can happen.

00:04:48.280 Putin seems to be optimistic.

00:04:50.440 Now, do you still doubt that Trump can negotiate the end of the Ukraine war on his first day in office?

00:04:57.920 He can literally.

00:04:59.840 Now, it won't happen on the first day.

00:05:02.500 But it's within the bounds of possibility that he could end the war on the first day.

00:05:08.200 It's not impossible.

00:05:09.720 Because there's nobody who doesn't want to end the war.

00:05:12.780 Basically, everybody wanted the end of the war, but not the way they were doing it.

00:05:16.940 So, as long as they were going the way they were going, nothing was going to change.

00:05:20.440 What they needed was something big that was coming from the outside that would just change the equation.

00:05:26.840 And it's Trump.

00:05:28.080 Trump is the ultimate reality changer.

00:05:30.520 It just changes all the variables.

00:05:32.400 And suddenly people say, oh, it's all new variables.

00:05:35.140 I guess we can end this war now.

00:05:37.520 So, I think Trump's odds of ending the war are very high.

00:05:41.140 But related to that, Russia convicted that Wall Street Journal reporter, Evan Gershkovich.

00:05:50.660 And he's been sentenced to the sprawling penal colony, which is known to be awful.

00:05:56.940 And we assume that Putin is playing the prisoner swap game.

00:06:03.580 I assume that there's somebody that Putin wants released or he wants leverage or maybe has to do with the Ukraine war.

00:06:10.620 But he wants something.

00:06:12.100 So, we assume that he's not a real prisoner.

00:06:15.480 He's sort of a leverage prisoner that Putin's using.

00:06:18.440 And do you think that Putin is waiting for Trump to get an office before he releases him so he can credit Trump with a release?

00:06:29.540 Because I think he is.

00:06:31.560 I think Putin is smart enough to know that if he can leave this little benefit for Trump, it's like, oh, look, Trump got this guy free in this first day of office.

00:06:41.760 And now we have a good relationship with America because we got this one thing, you know, this tiny little thing that was moving in the same direction.

00:06:51.200 And then you have momentum.

00:06:53.860 Because momentum is everything.

00:06:57.080 The world is not about what is.

00:06:59.520 It's about what direction you're moving.

00:07:00.960 And if the direction is moving toward each other, as in, you know what, President Trump, we are going to release this prisoner and it's only because you asked.

00:07:12.260 And we'd like the things to be better with the United States.

00:07:15.460 Now, that would be just a good zero expense thing for Putin to do.

00:07:20.580 So Putin could get some momentum toward some kind of resolution that he would prefer just by giving something that cost him nothing because it didn't cost him anything to give up the hostage.

00:07:32.940 I'll call him a hostage because he basically is.

00:07:36.120 So I got a feeling this is going to be echoes of Reagan and the Iran hostages.

00:07:42.060 That model is too strong in our minds to be ignored.

00:07:47.160 Anyway, here's more on Trump.

00:07:49.340 Trump's having a good week.

00:07:50.580 To say the least.

00:07:51.980 It looks like he's now up, according to an Emerson College polling executive.

00:07:57.800 Trump is up in Virginia.

00:08:00.120 That's a state that Biden won by 10.

00:08:03.860 He won by 10 and now he's down by 2.

00:08:08.580 You know, if you didn't know anything else about any of the polling anywhere, and if it turned out this was true, you can't believe every poll.

00:08:17.920 But it would tell you everything you needed.

00:08:20.580 By the way, when we see these nationwide polls where it says Trump's up by 5 or up by 2 in the nation, don't you have to kind of adjust that for the fact that normally the Republicans are behind on the popular vote?

00:08:40.260 And even if they win, it's because they got the right combination of states and stuff.

00:08:45.440 So if Trump is actually ahead in the overall common vote, doesn't that say landslide?

00:08:53.600 Even if he's just slightly ahead in the popular vote overall, that means landslide, right?

00:09:01.260 Because the only way you could get there is if you're way ahead in the states that count.

00:09:05.860 Well, it's not the only way, but it's highly suggestive of a landslide.

00:09:11.120 Don't get yourself too happy because anything could happen.

00:09:13.420 So according to Zero Hedge, federal prosecutors are starting to drop some of the obstruction charges from the January 6th prisoners because of the recent Supreme Court ruling.

00:09:29.060 So I guess the obstruction charge is not relevant to this situation.

00:09:37.560 Basically, the obstruction charge was really stretched by the prosecutors from some Enron situation where obstruction made more sense.

00:09:47.720 It was more about destroying evidence.

00:09:50.040 And it got really stretched too far.

00:09:52.880 And then the Supreme Court, I think, said, nope, that's not an applicable application.

00:09:59.220 So that doesn't mean that they'll be free.

00:10:02.200 It means that they'll just pursue other charges.

00:10:05.480 Now, what does it mean to you if the entire case, the January 6th case against Trump, is that he was trying to obstruct the government from doing his thing?

00:10:17.220 And then the Supreme Court said, no, that's not obstruction.

00:10:23.780 Doesn't that kind of make the whole thing go away?

00:10:26.160 At least the coup part of it?

00:10:29.340 If it was not illegal to obstruct, then what was it?

00:10:34.660 It was legal.

00:10:35.920 I mean, not illegal in that specific way.

00:10:38.660 So there was plenty of illegality too.

00:10:41.840 But it wasn't illegal in that specific way.

00:10:44.920 And that was the only part that really, really mattered.

00:10:48.360 Obviously, the violence mattered to the people who got injured.

00:10:51.500 But in terms of the big picture of whether it was an insurrection or a reasonable protest,

00:10:58.620 if you take the obstruction out of it, it kind of gets a lot closer to a reasonable protest,

00:11:04.900 which is how most of us saw it from the start.

00:11:07.180 All right.

00:11:10.160 Here's something we learned about J.D. Vance that we didn't know.

00:11:15.260 There's some leaked memos showing that J.D. Vance was the guy who kept holding up a bunch of ambassador nominations

00:11:22.800 because he would grill them about their DEI beliefs.

00:11:26.900 And if they were too woke and DEI, he would just not be okay with it.

00:11:31.420 And apparently, the leak was to show what a bad person he was.

00:11:36.220 But it doesn't look that way to me.

00:11:39.280 It looks like he was one of the smart ones if he was trying to prevent the spread of this virus of DEI.

00:11:48.740 Speaking of DEI, let's give you an update of how DEI is doing this week.

00:11:52.280 Number one, Democrats don't have a viable candidate because they can't win with Harris and they can't skip over.

00:12:03.200 So DEI has destroyed the Democrat Party from being a viable entity, maybe forever.

00:12:10.460 So that's one thing DEI did, destroyed the Democrat Party.

00:12:13.880 Allegedly, the Secret Service may have been affected by a little extra DEI emphasis than you wish.

00:12:24.320 Now, there's no direct connection between DEI and the shooting of Trump.

00:12:29.280 But we do know that the director had a big push toward DEI.

00:12:33.940 And we do know that that is a push that is often at odds with the best result.

00:12:41.880 So if somebody is bragging about putting emphasis in something that isn't for effectiveness, or rather for diversity,

00:12:51.220 can we be blamed for thinking it's one of the least top three possibilities for why things went wrong?

00:12:59.240 No, we can't.

00:13:00.320 That would be a reasonable assumption that it's at least in the top three.

00:13:04.580 How about the crowd strike crippling the planet?

00:13:07.360 Well, one of the things I love is that when any company has any problem, be it Boeing or somebody else,

00:13:13.820 in this case, crowd strike, you can count on Christopher Rufo within a day finding out how committed they were to DEI.

00:13:23.920 It turns out that crowd strike was really committed to DEI.

00:13:27.600 As Rufo says, they went all in on DEI.

00:13:35.080 And he's got the receipts to show it.

00:13:37.380 So they had a big push to make diversity a top priority.

00:13:44.220 And then what happened?

00:13:45.080 Well, it brought down the IT network of a big part of the globe.

00:13:48.860 Now, just to be clear, the Democrat Party destroying itself is a clear case of DEI.

00:13:57.280 They just can't skip over the black female candidate, and she's not capable of winning, so they don't have anything to run on. 0.99

00:14:05.940 And the other two are just suspicious, meaning that you'd have to put DEI in the top three possibilities.

00:14:14.000 I was watching the all-in pod yesterday.

00:14:17.640 I was watching Chamath say that all of our institutions are incompetent.

00:14:24.740 It seems like everything we counted on to sort of get the work done, it just stopped working.

00:14:30.760 And is that because of DEI?

00:14:34.580 Now, he didn't say that.

00:14:37.580 Chamath didn't say it was DEI.

00:14:39.340 But you have to ask yourself, is it in the top three reasons?

00:14:44.000 Probably.

00:14:45.440 I mean, on paper, it should create massive incompetence.

00:14:50.420 If the only thing you knew is that we're going to move our focus to diversity, and maybe we'll give up a little bit of experience,

00:15:00.240 you would assume that you would get massive incompetence.

00:15:03.960 What else would it be?

00:15:04.860 Yeah, the only way it could go the other way is if you learned that the diverse candidates were, in fact, always superior in intellect and capability.

00:15:15.200 Now, if that were the case, and I'm not saying it isn't, by the way, but if that were the case, then you would see an increase in quality.

00:15:23.620 Because we'd be like, oh, these were people who were left out before for racial discrimination or what else.

00:15:31.180 But now they're in, and now they're high-quality people, and they make everything work better.

00:15:38.020 On paper, unless the diverse candidates were noticeably smarter and more capable or harder working than the people that would have been in those jobs otherwise,

00:15:49.060 it should lead to a decrease in quality, you know, all other things be equal.

00:15:56.180 If you assume all people are equal and have the same capabilities, you should see a decrease in capability by forcing yourself to pick from a small group of people

00:16:08.100 when there's a great demand for the diverse people.

00:16:11.540 So it's just systemic.

00:16:15.960 All right, so that's not ideal.

00:16:19.060 A lot of people ask me, Scott, what do you think of the analysis that's all over the Internet of the gunshots

00:16:26.140 and how it shows that there are at least, I think, three different guns, according to one analysis.

00:16:33.060 And that would make it look like there are some secret shooters, not just the bad guy and not just the sniper who killed the bad guy,

00:16:40.460 but rather some mysterious third shooter that the conspiracy theorists would say.

00:16:45.980 So let me, I don't know what the answer is, but let me tell you how to look at this, all right?

00:16:54.280 So this would just be how to analyze it.

00:16:56.760 It's not the answer.

00:16:57.940 I can't tell you if there was a third shooter, so don't ask me that.

00:17:01.200 I'll just tell you how to look at it.

00:17:02.620 The most predictable thing you could have known is that somebody would make an analysis showing there was a third shooter.

00:17:11.540 You all know that, right?

00:17:13.340 You could predict with certainty whether or not there was a third shooter.

00:17:18.400 You could predict with certainty that there would be an analysis of the angle of the shots that would look like, hmm, third shooter.

00:17:26.660 And you could predict with certainty that somebody would do an audio analysis that would show there's a third shooter.

00:17:33.780 Now, if you can know in advance that those will exist, are they credible?

00:17:39.480 Well, let me say it again.

00:17:42.660 If you can know in advance that whether it's true or it's not true, that those analyses will still exist, for sure, guaranteed.

00:17:51.760 Can you trust them?

00:17:55.180 No.

00:17:56.300 No.

00:17:57.120 If you can predict that they will occur whether or not there was a third shooter, and I could do that.

00:18:04.140 If you had asked me, I'd say, I'll bet you $1 million.

00:18:07.800 I'll bet you $1 million that will be an analysis of a third shooter that you can't tell if it's accurate or not.

00:18:15.600 I would have bet $1 million.

00:18:17.380 And that has nothing to do with my belief that there's a third shooter.

00:18:20.980 It's just it's guaranteed in the age of the Internet there would be something that looks convincing that would look like a third shooter.

00:18:30.520 So question number one, was it convincing?

00:18:34.140 Yes.

00:18:35.440 Yes, it was convincing.

00:18:37.180 Was it true?

00:18:40.680 Here's the documentary problem.

00:18:42.960 The documentary fact, which I talk about all the time, because it's probably the single most important thing you need to understand to understand the news.

00:18:50.500 If you only see one side of an argument, you will be persuaded it's true.

00:18:55.500 When you look at these audio analyses, you're seeing one side of the argument, you're typically not seeing them paired with somebody saying, but I would have seen this differently, or your audio is off, or there's another way to look at it.

00:19:10.100 If you had seen them side-by-side, you probably would have a different opinion.

00:19:16.080 So if you saw one person's analysis that you knew was going to exist, whether or not it was true, and you didn't see it next to a counterpoint, what have you seen?

00:19:27.540 Nothing.

00:19:28.060 Nothing.

00:19:28.940 Nothing.

00:19:29.600 You should grade that as if you didn't see anything.

00:19:31.640 Now, until you learn that trick, how you should value that knowledge is as zero.

00:19:40.400 It's very similar to, there was one anonymous source that says President Trump took a dump on the Oval Office desk.

00:19:50.480 It's like that.

00:19:51.980 It might be true.

00:19:53.680 I mean, anything's possible.

00:19:56.180 But probably not.

00:19:58.020 By its nature, you shouldn't trust it.

00:19:59.820 So, this is no insult to the people who did the analysis.

00:20:04.460 I have no idea if it's accurate.

00:20:06.580 All I know is that as a consumer of news, don't assume that's accurate.

00:20:11.760 That would be the wrong way to analyze it.

00:20:14.900 Right?

00:20:15.460 So, and this is the tough part, that I don't know the answer if there was a third shoot or not.

00:20:22.360 I really don't.

00:20:24.060 But I know that trusting the analyses you see on it is a bad idea.

00:20:28.080 So, just get that distinction.

00:20:32.820 Well, we've found now that Crooks, the shooter, was able to fly his own drone over the location.

00:20:40.480 Now, I hate to say that a story is so tragic, and we can't forget that there were real victims in this, and it could have been much worse.

00:20:49.100 But how did a 20-year-old get air superiority?

00:20:56.080 He had air superiority.

00:20:59.260 He had air superiority.

00:21:02.440 Come on.

00:21:04.180 The first question that all of us asked was, wait a minute, the Secret Service doesn't have a drone?

00:21:09.640 How hard is it to get a drone?

00:21:11.900 Well, it wasn't that hard.

00:21:13.080 A 20-year-old did it.

00:21:14.120 So, apparently, now people are saying, why didn't they notice the drone?

00:21:19.940 That part I understand.

00:21:21.980 If the drone is high enough, yeah, if it's high enough, it's kind of hard to spot.

00:21:28.760 So, that's not too surprising.

00:21:30.360 Although, it does make you think that they should have some acoustic sensors, don't you think?

00:21:38.500 Don't you think there should be some kind of acoustic sensors that would pick up a drone buzz just by looking up all the time and say, uh-oh, you're a drone buzz, and then be able to kind of spot it or triangulate it?

00:21:51.760 So, maybe there's some equipment that needs to be invented in the age of drones.

00:21:55.840 I think they have drone-blocking technology, but not drone-detection technology.

00:22:02.280 In other words, the Secret Service probably had, you know, a portable device to disable a drone, which you can do by taking out a radio signal, but probably not want to detect one, which would be a little harder, or maybe more rare, not harder.

00:22:19.180 And then, of course, let's see if you could have predicted this.

00:22:23.280 There was a young male shooter.

00:22:27.740 Do you think there will be a controversy about whether or not he was on antidepressant meds?

00:22:33.500 Of course there would be.

00:22:35.980 Of course there would be.

00:22:37.820 And there is.

00:22:39.440 Why?

00:22:40.160 Well, there are studies that say that antidepressants increase the acting out of violent acts.

00:22:46.640 Is that true?

00:22:47.880 Well, it seems to be supported by a number of different studies.

00:22:51.260 It's not just one.

00:22:52.040 So, I would guess that there's something to that.

00:22:56.140 And it could be part of the answer.

00:22:58.440 Because you ask yourself, how in the world do you get in the frame of mind that you would do such a thing?

00:23:07.140 And it's hard to know.

00:23:09.940 Now, the other thing that people are asking is, why in the world is he the only 20-year-old who is known to be a computer programmer type and was on the Steam Gaming Network, and yet he has no social media?

00:23:26.500 And the only photos we can get of them are one taken by the snipers the day of, and another one when he was like 14 years old.

00:23:37.200 And everything in between is missing except for that BlackRock video where he just happened to be in the shot.

00:23:44.940 That's the most suspicious thing I've ever seen in my life.

00:23:48.120 And I know people are asking, are they hiding the fact that he was trans?

00:23:52.340 Because if you see his haircut in the day of the event, he's got long hair for the first time because he didn't have long hair as a teenager.

00:24:03.620 Was he transitioning?

00:24:07.560 Now, I don't have any, I have no clues to that except that he had long hair like a woman by the day of the event.

00:24:18.100 Now, but people have long hair, so that's not proof of anything.

00:24:22.180 But why would they, why would the government apparently try to protect us from some information about the shooter?

00:24:31.200 It's very suspicious.

00:24:32.240 So, does that mean he's trans?

00:24:34.500 No, absolutely not.

00:24:36.880 Does it mean that it's obvious they're hiding something from us?

00:24:40.320 It looks obvious.

00:24:41.600 It looks obvious that there's something about this story they're hiding from us.

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00:25:36.940 So let's check again on the incompetence hypothesis versus the conspiracy hypothesis.

00:25:49.200 Here's some things we know.

00:25:52.000 According to the Wall Street Journal, the Butler County Emergency Services and the Secret Service have different explanations of what happened.

00:26:07.020 Do you remember my hypothesis, the Dilbert filter?

00:26:10.200 I said that when you have three entities, the Secret Service, the local police, and then the local police sniper unit, which was a different local police.

00:26:22.540 It was a nearby jurisdiction, that when you put three people in charge of a thing, your odds of a bureaucratic miscommunication just go through the roof.

00:26:34.560 Two is a lot.

00:26:36.140 If you've got two different entities that have to communicate, you're already in trouble.

00:26:41.020 But if you have two of them that seem like they're the same, but they're not the same, they're both local police, but they're from different places, you're just automatically introducing error into the system.

00:26:51.420 So you don't have to be some kind of Dan Bongino expert to know that there was going to be a massive possibility of error as soon as you had three people.

00:27:03.580 That's all it takes.

00:27:04.960 Three entities.

00:27:06.620 So there is now, as I imagined there would be, there are opposite stories of who thought who was supposed to be guarding the building.

00:27:15.040 Now, did I call that?

00:27:16.040 Tell me who else predicted that the real problem would come down to the police and the Secret Service disagreeing on who was supposed to be doing what.

00:27:28.560 And here it is.

00:27:29.880 It was the most predictable thing about this.

00:27:33.340 Now, that's based on the Dilbert filter, that it's just bureaucracy and pointy-haired boss and people being lazy and selfish.

00:27:40.640 Do you remember when I said maybe the, maybe the snipers, the police snipers, maybe they took a place inside the building because it was hot on the roof?

00:27:52.440 Do you remember I said that?

00:27:54.180 Maybe it was just hot on the roof.

00:27:56.340 It turns out that's the actual reason.

00:27:58.920 It was too hot on the roof.

00:28:00.080 And then they believed that the roof would be covered by the other snipers.

00:28:07.260 So in other words, the other snipers could see the rooftop and then the snipers that decided to be in the cooler inside place said, oh, look, we've got this window with a good view of the venue.

00:28:18.920 You guys got the rooftop.

00:28:20.960 Now, how hard would it be for somebody to mishear that about who has the rooftop?

00:28:28.540 Real easy.

00:28:30.080 And for sure, even if they understood it, they're going to be blaming each other because that's just how humans work.

00:28:36.380 All right.

00:28:37.220 So one unit believed that the roof slant would have partially obscured the sniper's view so that there was something about the roof slant that makes no sense whatsoever, does it?

00:28:48.340 It doesn't make any sense.

00:28:50.180 They didn't want the police snipers to be exposed to the heat because it was over 90 degrees and it was a nine-hour shift.

00:28:58.760 That's just what I told you.

00:29:00.620 It was too hot.

00:29:02.120 The roof was too hot.

00:29:03.680 So they just didn't get on it.

00:29:05.040 If you just think of the least conspiratorial thing, like what's the most normal thing that people do?

00:29:12.460 They try to avoid heat.

00:29:14.420 Just normal stuff.

00:29:15.660 They blame other people.

00:29:17.180 They mishear things.

00:29:18.220 The most normal things in the world would explain most of this.

00:29:23.000 So the secret service decided not to stage snipers on that roof and left securing it to the locals.

00:29:33.320 Exactly what I told you.

00:29:34.960 The locals thought that the snipers thought that the secret service was securing the roof.

00:29:40.580 Just like I told you.

00:29:41.980 They would blame each other.

00:29:46.600 And then there was the looking around for the guy, but they couldn't find him.

00:29:50.660 Now, the part that we don't have an answer for is if they knew there was some unsecure situation, why did they let the president go out?

00:29:58.420 Did the president insist on going out, even knowing there was a problem?

00:30:02.640 Was there something more about what they knew about the guy who was looking suspicious with the rangefinder?

00:30:08.480 So we got real questions.

00:30:10.220 But it sure looks like incompetence is 80% of the answer.

00:30:16.300 But we don't know that's the whole answer.

00:30:20.200 Now, as smart people have been saying, it doesn't need to be that the incompetence was necessarily part of the plan.

00:30:28.860 But it could be that knowing there was incompetence or creating a situation where there might be more incompetence, such as using the non-regular people, such as taking the most experienced people and moving them to cover the NATO summit, moving them to cover Jill Biden's trip, both of which happened.

00:30:49.840 Those might be just normal bureaucratic decisions that turned down tragic.

00:30:54.720 But let's talk about the conspiracy hypothesis, which could involve some planned incompetence.

00:31:04.840 In other words, you could imagine that the plot involved finding a weakness in the security and then striking when there was weakness.

00:31:14.680 So they might have, you know, the inside, the idea of an insider being involved is still alive.

00:31:21.060 But let's look at that.

00:31:21.720 So the conspiracy theory, certainly the fact that we don't see a social media is a question.

00:31:30.600 There's no clear explanation from the Secret Service of why things went wrong.

00:31:37.000 And when there was a little bit of an explanation, it was an obvious lie that the slanted roof was the problem.

00:31:45.540 Now, that the slope was dangerous.

00:31:49.060 Now, given that the head of the Secret Service obviously lied and we haven't heard a clarification yet.

00:31:58.820 That's sort of a big flag.

00:32:01.200 So I'd say that those really the unanswered questions are the biggest problem in my mind.

00:32:12.880 All right.

00:32:13.540 Now, many of you asked, what about that alleged FBI assistant director who was in the stands behind Trump and seemed mysteriously not shaken up by the incident and simply filmed it?

00:32:25.020 And people said, my God, she must be in on the plot because she was the only one who didn't look surprised.

00:32:31.760 I hear that's been debunked.

00:32:33.600 She is not.

00:32:34.320 She is not, in fact, an assistant director of the FBI.

00:32:38.240 Is everybody up to date on that?

00:32:40.200 I just found out this morning.

00:32:41.640 So it was not true that that was her job.

00:32:46.060 Now, that doesn't mean she's not part of the part of the conspiracy.

00:32:50.720 Right.

00:32:51.260 But here's why I don't think she is.

00:32:54.800 You wouldn't be that close to the bullets.

00:32:58.620 If you were part of the conspiracy, you'd make sure you weren't sitting there.

00:33:03.260 That's that's the worst thing to do is sit there.

00:33:05.080 But let me give you an explanation that makes sense to me.

00:33:10.360 Why was this one person calmly taking a video?

00:33:16.620 Well, it could be a sense of duty.

00:33:20.900 If you had your phone ready and it was sort of already on video because you probably were, you know, every now and then doing video of the the event.

00:33:28.860 Wouldn't you know that your angle on this event, which was clearly a world event, would be needed?

00:33:38.320 You would want as much video from every angle as possible for the benefit of the country.

00:33:44.100 You want the public to see what happened.

00:33:46.940 You want the Secret Service to be able to see if there's any extra thing that can be gleaned from it.

00:33:51.900 And probably she had an angle that was not going to be covered by anything else.

00:33:55.360 If you put me in that situation, I would have filmed.

00:34:00.320 If you put me in that situation, I would have stayed there and filmed because I would have thought it was so important.

00:34:06.840 To have that angle, especially since she didn't know if Trump was OK by that time.

00:34:13.420 I think I would have stayed and I think I would have just put the camera on it, even though even though the bullets were flying,

00:34:19.380 because I would have felt some level of importance to it that seemed greater than my physical safety at that moment.

00:34:26.920 Now, I love to say that because it makes me sound brave, but it would be more about the the largeness of the moment.

00:34:35.440 Would make me default to what has to be done versus what I want to be done.

00:34:41.300 Does that make sense?

00:34:42.160 Yes, when situation really goes off the rails like that, your brain can flip into what you have to do versus what you want to do.

00:34:51.500 What you want to do is run and what I would want to do is run.

00:34:55.560 But sometimes you do what you have to do because you have to do it.

00:34:59.420 There doesn't need to be a better reason.

00:35:01.720 So let's just say she knew what she had to do.

00:35:05.460 What's wrong with that as an explanation?

00:35:07.400 Now, again, I can't tell you what her motives are or anything like that, but there is a perfectly reasonable explanation that she just saw the moment.

00:35:18.160 She just felt the moment and did what I'm glad she did, which is get another video of another angle.

00:35:25.580 All right.

00:35:27.120 So this global IT outage caused by crowd strike.

00:35:31.320 Um, apparently we're, of course, there are rumors that, uh, crowd strike is connected to election machines.

00:35:41.320 We don't know.

00:35:42.000 I don't know if any of that's true, but, uh, uh, Elon Musk just deleted crowd strike from all of his company systems.

00:35:49.280 One of the things that I heard about it that I don't know is true is that Trump had once complained that crowd strike was owned by the Ukrainian oligarch.

00:35:58.960 Is that true?

00:36:01.320 Is it true that crowd strike is owned by a Ukrainian oligarch?

00:36:06.600 How could that possibly be true?

00:36:10.700 Now, it's something that Trump apparently had claimed in prior years when crowd strike was part of that, uh, the group that looked at the, um, the DNC hack and decided it was Russia.

00:36:23.240 Uh, and people like me said, huh, that's convenient.

00:36:26.600 And so the information that nobody gets to see, but you, and we don't quite trust you are saying that, uh, it's Russia, which is very convenient. 0.86

00:36:36.740 And so everything about that sounded like bullshit to me, but I didn't know the part about the Ukrainian oligarch. 0.61

00:36:46.180 So I'm, I'm, I'm not sure that's true. 0.92

00:36:49.180 So don't assume that I'm saying it's true.

00:36:51.520 It's just, uh, I'll look for a confirmation of that.

00:36:55.100 Anyway, uh, Daniel Dale, the fact checker for CNN, uh, you know how I was telling you that when he was mentioning his fact checks on Trump at the big speech that I could tell that the, the first several things he mentioned were actually wrong fact checks.

00:37:14.440 And even I knew, I mean, just by paying attention to the news, I knew, Oh, well, that's not true.

00:37:20.880 Or, Oh, well, you left out the context.

00:37:23.380 If you put it in the context, it would look different.

00:37:25.820 Oh, that's not the way they collect that data anymore.

00:37:28.260 So really it's a data problem.

00:37:30.000 Now that's just stuff I do.

00:37:32.120 You know, I'm just mildly well-informed on the news, but imagine why you would know if you were an expert on any of the domains that he talked about.

00:37:42.440 Well, that happened.

00:37:43.700 Uh, so, so representative Mike Waltz at the convention gave his own speech and he said that, uh, Biden was focused on building electric tanks, which is probably not the best, you know, power for a tank.

00:38:02.880 Um, and, uh, Daniel Dale, uh, debunked that and said, that's not true that Biden was focusing on tanks.

00:38:10.180 So Daniel Dale basically makes Mike Waltz look like an idiot by fact checking him on TV, but then CNN made the mistake of interviewing Mike Waltz.

00:38:21.780 And that's where things went, went south for CNN because Mike Waltz, it turns out is really good at communicating, really good at communicating. 0.54

00:38:32.300 And he decided to use his time on CNN to try to repair his reputation, which you can't do.

00:38:39.800 I mean, once the cat's out of the bag, it lives on the internet forever, as he pointed out.

00:38:43.420 But he went through the details of how, if Daniel Dale had not immediately assumed it was untrue, if he had spent just a minute Googling it, he would have found out it's completely true.

00:38:56.140 And Waltz had the receipts, he gave the, he gave the sources, things you could check.

00:39:01.740 And sure enough, Mike Waltz was completely right, but he got fact checked.

00:39:07.500 Now this is a version of the gel man amnesia, you know, gel man amnesia.

00:39:13.260 I talk about all the time where if you're an expert in a domain, you look at the news and you go, well, that news is wrong.

00:39:19.680 That's fake news.

00:39:20.660 But if you're not an expert, you think it might be true because what do you know?

00:39:24.200 You're not an expert, but here's a perfect example.

00:39:27.600 So Waltz did know a lot about this topic.

00:39:30.780 And then the guy who fact checked him didn't know and said it was false.

00:39:34.540 And then the audience didn't know.

00:39:37.280 And they probably think, well, Daniel Dale probably looked into it and just magnify this times a hundred. 0.99

00:39:44.240 And that's what half of the country is looking at is shit that's just made up. 0.99

00:39:51.800 All right. 1.00

00:39:52.460 Here's another one, know the players.

00:39:55.100 Anderson Cooper had Carl Bernstein on, Bernstein, Bernstein, Bernstein, right?

00:40:01.140 Carl Bernstein on from the Worson Watergate duo.

00:40:05.960 So when did they bring him on?

00:40:08.540 What is the reason that you would ever bring Carl Bernstein, Bernstein onto your shelf?

00:40:15.580 Well, you bring him on when you don't have any real news, but you want somebody to say something bad about Trump.

00:40:24.220 That's that's number one reason.

00:40:25.900 And he's the one that goes on.

00:40:27.300 Oh, whatever Trump did on Tuesday, that's worse than Watergate.

00:40:31.240 How about the stuff he did on Thursday?

00:40:33.640 Thursday?

00:40:34.200 Let me check.

00:40:35.140 Worse than Watergate.

00:40:36.640 How about over the weekend?

00:40:38.180 Did he do anything worse than Watergate?

00:40:39.460 Well, let me check.

00:40:40.240 Over the weekend?

00:40:40.800 Yeah.

00:40:41.240 Yeah.

00:40:42.060 That was worse than Watergate.

00:40:43.400 So he basically has that one speed, but they also brought him out to dump on Biden because, you know, the big push from Pelosi and the Democrats is to cause enough pain for Biden that he'll quit.

00:41:00.260 And having Carl Bernstein on is, does anybody know if it's Stein or Stein?

00:41:07.440 I can't just keep saying his name wrong in public.

00:41:10.400 It's just too embarrassing.

00:41:11.300 How in the world am I supposed to know?

00:41:15.280 Like my brain doesn't.

00:41:17.080 I have the same problem with the Weinstein brothers, which now I know is Einstein.

00:41:21.620 Rhymes with Einstein, so I can get that one right.

00:41:24.160 But is he also a Stein?

00:41:28.700 Weinstein?

00:41:30.060 I'm seeing Steen.

00:41:32.160 So Steen for Carl.

00:41:34.500 So Carl Bernstein.

00:41:36.060 Oh, that sounds right.

00:41:37.200 Once I say it, it sounds right.

00:41:39.820 Thank you.

00:41:40.420 All right.

00:41:41.720 So I will now correctly say his name and I apologize to Carl.

00:41:46.280 Yeah.

00:41:46.540 I never say people's names incorrectly on purpose.

00:41:49.360 I just, I have trouble with some of these names.

00:41:53.040 But anyway, he's the kind of guy who doesn't have anything special to add, but you bring him out just to bolster a message that you were saying anyway.

00:42:00.340 So he's saying that Biden realizes the current state of his candidacy is likely unsustainable.

00:42:09.080 Now, do you think that Carl knows what Biden is thinking when he realizes that his candidacy is unsustainable?

00:42:18.780 And do you think that if Biden really, in the real world, if he thought his campaign was unsustainable, he would be fighting to stay in?

00:42:27.260 So do you think Carl is telling us the truth, that the guy who knows his campaign is unsustainable is going to do the opposite of what that knowledge would lead you to do?

00:42:40.860 Is that what's happening?

00:42:42.560 It doesn't sound likely to me.

00:42:44.980 To me, it sounds like Biden wants to stay in.

00:42:49.400 And everybody's trying to make a story that he's leaving.

00:42:53.660 Now, it seems to me, and other smart people have noted this, that it seems that the Pelosi plan, let's call it that, she seems to be leading it, maybe Obama, but Pelosi seems key to it, is to have enough people say he's leaving so that everybody believes he's leaving, which would make all of his funding dry up.

00:43:14.980 Which would make everybody abandon ship, because you don't want to be the last one on the sinking ship.

00:43:20.000 So it looks like they're trying to drain of them support with a hoax.

00:43:26.280 With a hoax.

00:43:28.180 It's their main tool.

00:43:29.580 It's the thing they use against Trump.

00:43:31.660 So it seems to me that the Biden has decided to leave might be a Pelosi hoax.

00:43:37.760 And she might be doing to fellow Democrat what she's been doing to Trump for years, with just one hoax after another. 0.69

00:43:47.680 So we'll see if it works.

00:43:49.400 My prediction from the beginning was that Biden would stay in the race until Election Day, at least.

00:43:56.500 How's my prediction look?

00:43:57.880 Here's what Mark Halperin says about the Pelosi plan to get rid of Biden.

00:44:05.940 He says that you have to know that Mark Halperin is a very well-connected political strategist consultant guy.

00:44:15.320 So when he talks, generally you'd assume he knows what he's talking about.

00:44:19.200 So he would be one of the people you could know that whether he's telling you the truth or not, he knows the truth.

00:44:26.960 He would be an insider.

00:44:28.980 So he says that Team Pelosi will keep ratcheting things up until Joe, Jill, and Hunter cry uncle.

00:44:36.500 Now there's this guy, Seth Moulton.

00:44:38.620 I don't know who he is.

00:44:39.320 But he says that the president didn't recognize him.

00:44:42.540 And that's another turtle on another fence post, says Halperin.

00:44:46.000 And the paradox is the more Pelosi uses the tactics to humiliate Joe, the more this vain, proud, biggest chip-on-the-shoulder man gets his back up.

00:44:59.720 He works out.

00:45:01.840 This is Halperin characterizing Biden.

00:45:05.420 He works out.

00:45:06.360 He thinks he still has it.

00:45:07.900 He will not be bullied.

00:45:09.020 But the donors, members, and most of his staff have already made up their minds.

00:45:12.840 And he indicated he had also.

00:45:16.340 Really?

00:45:18.800 Here's the problem with getting Biden out of the race.

00:45:21.280 So this is my take on it, right?

00:45:23.420 So here are the things that I think you would agree would be true.

00:45:26.760 But when you hear them all together, you decide if he's going to get out of the race.

00:45:31.480 Number one, if Biden leaves the race now, it makes his first term look absurd.

00:45:37.260 Because we're going to say, wait a minute, who was in charge in the first term? 0.98

00:45:41.420 Were you already worthless and full of dementia? 0.74

00:45:44.980 So Biden is not running to save his second term. 0.98

00:45:51.360 He's running to save his legacy.

00:45:53.440 If he quits now, it's an admission that his first term was a joke.

00:45:57.940 Who could do that?

00:46:00.340 Who could do that?

00:46:01.240 Ask yourself if you could do that.

00:46:03.200 You made it to President of the United States.

00:46:05.180 If you quit today because of your mental capacity is a very clear indication that it was diminished for your full term.

00:46:15.040 Everybody would know that.

00:46:16.060 If you admit it, you're saying, I pulled a hoax on the country.

00:46:20.200 I put you all in terrible jeopardy.

00:46:23.120 My first term was absurd.

00:46:25.240 And I'm not even sure who was in charge.

00:46:28.480 Do you think he could do that?

00:46:30.320 Do you think anybody could do that?

00:46:32.840 I don't.

00:46:33.640 I don't think there's any human being who could wrap their ego around giving up their entire legacy, the entire family name, all of it.

00:46:43.940 Everything he's worked his life to achieve, he has to give it all up to quit.

00:46:48.400 Because it's not about the second term.

00:46:50.340 It's about the first term.

00:46:52.020 And if you get that wrong, you don't understand how hard he's going to dig in.

00:46:56.480 He's not giving up the second term.

00:46:58.380 He's giving up his whole legacy if he leaves.

00:47:01.320 Because he's got to pretend he was in good shape, at least for the first term.

00:47:05.180 Now, if he gets into the second term and lasts a year, you know, if they hide him well enough, it looks like he lasted a year.

00:47:11.120 Then he can say, well, suddenly things took a downturn.

00:47:15.140 I'd better put Kamala in charge. 1.00

00:47:17.800 And then he has his more graceful exit.

00:47:21.240 All right, here's some more.

00:47:22.280 If he leaves the race now, he's going to cripple Democrats, even if there's a new candidate.

00:47:29.720 So the new candidate, whoever it is, Kamala or somebody else, is going to be so crippled by how long Biden waited that the blame will be on him, whether he loses personally or he waited too long to get out and cause the other person to lose.

00:47:46.580 So there are basically two ways to lose, and both of them would be blamed on Biden.

00:47:52.280 Even if he's replaced, he gets blamed because the replacement came too late.

00:47:57.580 So he has two ways to lose.

00:47:59.640 You might as well run for office.

00:48:02.320 Because he doesn't come out ahead if he quits.

00:48:05.340 How about leaving the race now means he loses to Trump?

00:48:10.980 Do you think he could do that?

00:48:12.260 Do you think after everything you said about Trump and the personal animus and the ego that he's put into it, do you think he could lose to Trump and lose in such a weak way?

00:48:24.100 Because he'd be leaving in a way that made him physically and mentally weaker than Trump.

00:48:28.640 These are guys who have been saying in public, I'm going to beat you up behind the bleachers. 0.96

00:48:34.400 They've literally, it's been a dick measuring contest for years, and you think one of them is going to say, you know what? 0.96

00:48:40.440 As it turns out, I'm physically and mentally weaker than Trump, so you should maybe just think about him. 0.55

00:48:46.600 I mean, you wouldn't say that second part.

00:48:48.000 But no, there's no way that he can admit he has, in fact, been physically and mentally weaker than Trump.

00:48:54.240 Nobody could do that.

00:48:55.480 It's just undoable mentally.

00:48:59.020 How about leaving the race now confesses that he controlled the nuclear triad while he was mentally degraded. 0.68

00:49:05.240 If he's mentally degraded enough to leave the race, that means that right now, today, he's in charge of the nuclear triad while he has dementia.

00:49:14.680 Is he going to admit that?

00:49:15.880 If he does, it's the biggest crime in human history.

00:49:21.840 I mean, it would be beyond, I mean, it would be unimaginably bad behavior.

00:49:26.820 I mean, I don't even have a word for it.

00:49:29.060 There's no words to describe how bad that would be.

00:49:32.460 But he would have to admit that.

00:49:34.500 He'd have to admit the worst thing you've ever heard from a president.

00:49:38.380 I can't think of anything worse.

00:49:40.200 Yeah, I did have dementia, and I was in charge of the military.

00:49:44.500 No, he can't admit that.

00:49:47.380 That is unadmittable.

00:49:48.580 How about leaving the race puts his family at risk of legal action?

00:49:56.300 That alone would be enough reason not to leave.

00:49:59.140 What about the fact that they don't have a backup income?

00:50:02.140 He's not going to go in the speaking circuit.

00:50:04.720 He's not going to write a book.

00:50:05.980 He doesn't have any income, and his family might require that.

00:50:13.100 It's going to take a lot of money to keep him alive in his later years if he lasts.

00:50:17.700 And so anyway, if you put all that together, and you say, how much pain would Nancy Pelosi have to give him for him to back out?

00:50:29.260 So I just described the pain of leaving, and the pain of leaving is bigger than any pain I can even imagine mentally.

00:50:37.420 You can't even wrap your head around how much that would hurt if you were in his position and you had his ego.

00:50:45.120 Maybe Pelosi can create enough pain.

00:50:47.720 Maybe she can just make it a de facto thing by having everybody around him disappear. 0.66

00:50:54.400 That would be enough, I suppose.

00:50:56.480 But I'm going to go with my original prediction.

00:50:59.420 My original prediction is they can't get him out of there.

00:51:05.040 And that what they will do is they will let him run, but out of practicality, they're going to say, hey, everybody, you're really voting for Kamala.

00:51:16.040 Just understand you're voting for Kamala.

00:51:18.560 It's fine.

00:51:19.340 Don't panic.

00:51:20.820 Biden's at the top of the ticket.

00:51:22.720 Don't worry about it.

00:51:23.640 It's really Kamala.

00:51:24.580 Just vote for Kamala 2024.

00:51:27.020 So that's my prediction. 0.99

00:51:28.180 Now, that's stupid, but that's where we're heading. 0.99

00:51:34.060 All right. 0.99

00:51:34.940 Apparently, the Gateway Pundit's reporting that the DNC Rules Committee wants to do a virtual roll call to nominate Biden because otherwise there'd be this embarrassing public display.

00:51:48.060 Man, can Democrats lose harder than they're losing this week?

00:51:51.300 Have you ever seen such an enormous gap between how one party is doing and how the other party is doing in the same week?

00:51:59.420 I've never seen anything like this.

00:52:01.400 I mean, Trump basically got elevated to a legend with possibly divine inspiration.

00:52:07.860 And Biden's, you know, trying to defend his dementia that even his own people say.

00:52:14.340 That's as far as you can get in distance.

00:52:18.660 All right.

00:52:19.300 Well, we, of course, since it's Saturday, we have to talk about what Bill Maher said in his show.

00:52:24.020 And I know some people don't like hearing about Bill Maher, but he has a good window into what some other people are thinking.

00:52:30.300 And that's important.

00:52:31.840 And he does an important service with his show.

00:52:35.040 I think his show is very important for the public.

00:52:38.360 You know, even when we like to fight about it and argue with him, what Bill Maher does is very important and useful.

00:52:45.680 And it's just public service as well as entertainment, in my opinion.

00:52:49.380 So I have the highest appreciation for what he does.

00:52:52.280 But he had on his show, Larry Wilmore and Byron Donalds, among others, and he said that Trump's popularity is a cult.

00:53:06.820 And he thinks that the cult of personality around Trump is dangerous.

00:53:11.920 And it's even more dangerous if you think he has this, you know, divine inspiration.

00:53:17.140 Now, what do you think about that?

00:53:19.020 Do you think that Trump is dangerous because his followers love him so much and believe that God might be on his side?

00:53:29.260 Well, I'm not a religious person at all, but I've spent most of my, you know, most of my life around them.

00:53:40.320 And so I'll give you my interpretation.

00:53:42.200 When people say that Trump has, you know, the blessing of the divine, just because he, you know, avoided getting killed.

00:53:52.380 I don't think that means he has a free pass, does it?

00:53:56.660 Can somebody who is more of a believer give me a fact check?

00:54:01.160 I don't think that means he could do what he wants.

00:54:03.880 I don't think that's even a thing.

00:54:05.360 If he, you know, murdered somebody on Fifth Avenue, I don't think people are going to say, well, it's God's will.

00:54:12.460 Because, I mean, obviously God speaks through Trump and he killed the guy on Fifth Avenue, so I guess we're going to have to let it go.

00:54:18.980 It's God's will.

00:54:20.160 No, there's no religious people who think that.

00:54:24.000 Or let me put it in the simplest steps.

00:54:28.480 I don't think that people think Trump is influencing God.

00:54:35.000 I think God's in charge.

00:54:36.860 That would be the view.

00:54:38.160 And he's doing what makes sense for God.

00:54:40.620 It might be helping Trump today.

00:54:43.560 It might be helping somebody else tomorrow.

00:54:46.520 It might be preventing Trump from doing something tomorrow.

00:54:49.980 But no, it doesn't mean that if somebody had some touch with what other people believe is a brush with the divine,

00:54:57.440 it doesn't mean he's got a free pass, does it?

00:55:01.300 Is there anybody here who is religious, who feels that God was involved, who thinks that therefore Trump has a free pass?

00:55:09.720 It's just not part of any philosophy that I'm aware of.

00:55:14.760 Yeah.

00:55:15.120 Because God is God and Trump is Trump.

00:55:17.660 And if they intersected for a moment, that doesn't make Trump God.

00:55:22.840 Nobody believes that.

00:55:23.920 So I think there's a basic misunderstanding of what religious people are feeling.

00:55:28.340 That's my guess.

00:55:29.100 But, you know, I'm no expert.

00:55:32.580 But more to the point, let me explain cults.

00:55:37.500 A cult requires isolation of the members.

00:55:41.320 And one of the things I should have mentioned, I can't remember if I did,

00:55:44.260 if you're trying to hypnotize, let's say, a shooter into becoming an assassin,

00:55:48.540 regular hypnosis won't get it done.

00:55:51.800 And nobody's invented a drug that'll turn somebody into an assassin unless antidepressants are doing it.

00:55:58.720 And then it's accidental.

00:56:01.720 But what you can do is you can isolate somebody and then you can brainwash them any way you want.

00:56:08.040 If you isolate somebody, there's no limit to what you can brainwash them.

00:56:12.660 No limit. 0.99

00:56:13.180 You can make them kill themselves, make them kill other people. 0.99

00:56:18.340 Now, here are the examples. 0.98

00:56:19.700 This is well known by the fact that it's not just my opinion.

00:56:22.580 This would be well understood by everybody who studies this field.

00:56:26.720 There's something called Stockholm Syndrome, where if you're captured and kidnapped,

00:56:32.460 you might come to identify with your captors.

00:56:34.940 But that requires an extended period where you're only exposed to their philosophies

00:56:42.200 and not any outside world.

00:56:45.180 So that's what happened with Patty Hearst when the Symbionese Liberation Army kidnapped her.

00:56:51.220 And then she was spotted helping them rob a bank later.

00:56:54.940 And she said, yeah, I just sort of got brainwashed into thinking they made sense after a while.

00:57:01.760 Now, that's a well-established thing.

00:57:03.680 So before Patty Hearst, it was already called Stockholm Syndrome.

00:57:07.500 So she wasn't where it was invented.

00:57:09.960 It was known before that.

00:57:11.400 And so we understood why she could be co-opted that way.

00:57:15.460 Now, if you look at Jim Jones and getting all of his cult to commit suicide,

00:57:19.660 and what's that other cult that was going to go, their souls were going to join the meteor or something.

00:57:26.900 So whenever there's a cult that convinces people to do things that are clearly bad,

00:57:33.240 like suicide or killing, they're kept from the rest of the public.

00:57:38.760 That's important.

00:57:40.060 Now, I would argue that Democrats are kept from the rest of the public,

00:57:45.720 meaning that they only see the hoaxes.

00:57:48.240 Now, the Democrats do not have a cult of personality.

00:57:53.840 There's no cult of personality around Biden.

00:57:57.040 Obama was a little bit, but he's out of the picture at the moment.

00:58:00.240 So I would say neither of them are a cult.

00:58:02.720 Because, one, the conservatives and the people who support Trump see both sides.

00:58:11.060 Because in this case, both sides are the common narrative that everybody sees,

00:58:15.780 but then they also see what only Republicans see.

00:58:19.360 So Republicans are not cut off from the world of knowledge.

00:58:22.660 They see what they see, plus they see what Democrats see, for the most part.

00:58:27.260 But is it the other way?

00:58:29.280 Do Democrats see what Republicans see?

00:58:31.200 Well, here's a good example.

00:58:33.800 Larry Wilmore was on with Byron Donalds.

00:58:36.280 Byron Donalds is Republican and sees the entire argument on the other side.

00:58:42.320 And they were talking about abortion.

00:58:44.120 Larry Wilmore didn't even know the argument.

00:58:48.720 Bill Maher had to remind Larry Wilmore that the reason conservatives are against abortion

00:58:54.940 is that they believe it's murder.

00:58:58.460 He didn't seem to know that.

00:59:01.200 Just wrap your head around that.

00:59:03.700 He thought it was more about wanting to control women's bodies with big government. 0.98

00:59:13.100 What?

00:59:13.660 How could it be 2024 and a public figure, Larry Wilmore,

00:59:19.920 doesn't know the first thing about the topic of abortion?

00:59:24.200 He also thought that the Supreme Court made it illegal.

00:59:31.480 No.

00:59:33.340 They kicked it to the states where it belonged.

00:59:37.560 And then the states can do whatever they want.

00:59:41.460 So Larry Wilmore had no awareness of the basics of it.

00:59:45.920 So when Byron Donalds was schooling him,

00:59:49.680 and by the way, Byron Donalds is great.

00:59:52.420 I mean, his future looks pretty strong.

00:59:55.140 I can see him as being president someday.

00:59:57.760 But he's just so strong on the communication.

01:00:01.220 So Byron Donalds starts schooling him.

01:00:05.260 And what do you think Larry Wilmore did?

01:00:07.900 I'll give you the, if you didn't see it yourself, I'll give you the options.

01:00:11.060 He listened quietly.

01:00:12.640 And then said, wow, I guess I was wrong about some of the key things.

01:00:17.880 I'm going to have to go rethink my opinion.

01:00:20.260 How many think that?

01:00:23.080 How many think that he went crazy and started talking over him in a mocking way

01:00:29.480 so that you couldn't hear what Byron Donalds was saying?

01:00:33.800 Bing, you guessed correctly.

01:00:35.860 That's right.

01:00:36.500 He literally wouldn't let him talk.

01:00:38.000 Because once he realized that if Byron Donalds did talk,

01:00:43.140 it would be clearly showing that Larry Wilmore was talking about a topic

01:00:47.240 he didn't understand even at a really basic level.

01:00:50.500 So he just mocked him and talked over him while he talked.

01:00:54.380 How often have you seen that?

01:00:56.640 And by the way, does that work both ways?

01:00:59.820 Because I may be biased on this,

01:01:02.180 but it feels like that's almost entirely a left-leaning strategy.

01:01:08.200 And here's the reason why.

01:01:10.720 I think they don't know they've been hoaxed.

01:01:13.380 Well, I guess that's what makes it a good hoax.

01:01:16.560 So they're finding out their entire worldview is wrong,

01:01:20.240 and I think they just can't handle it.

01:01:23.200 And every time you see something like this

01:01:24.940 where his entire worldview was wrong,

01:01:29.200 the only reaction you could do in the moment

01:01:32.000 is to make sure people don't hear the other side.

01:01:34.580 That's what happened.

01:01:35.200 All right, here's another one.

01:01:38.740 How many Democrats do you think have seen the compilation videos

01:01:42.500 of all the prominent Democrats saying that the voting machines are insecure?

01:01:48.200 How many of you have seen it?

01:01:50.400 How many of you have seen the videos where it's 20 minutes long,

01:01:54.740 20 minutes of 10-second bites of prominent Democrats from Hillary Clinton,

01:02:02.960 you name it, saying that they don't trust voting machines

01:02:06.660 because they're not secure?

01:02:09.100 I'll bet a lot of you have seen it, right?

01:02:11.200 So you would know that it's not a left-versus-right issue,

01:02:15.280 that the left very much didn't trust voting machines,

01:02:19.260 and nothing changed.

01:02:20.920 Did it?

01:02:21.940 Did you hear about any big update that changed

01:02:24.460 why they would trust voting machines?

01:02:26.880 No.

01:02:28.780 Nothing really changed.

01:02:30.720 But suddenly, as soon as Trump says,

01:02:35.640 hey, I don't trust this election,

01:02:37.560 they all said, well, voting machines,

01:02:39.860 I don't know why you're questioning them.

01:02:41.740 We're going to sue you.

01:02:42.760 Now, imagine if you were a Democrat who had never seen that,

01:02:47.500 and that's my point.

01:02:48.880 You would think, oh, man, these Republicans,

01:02:51.640 they keep questioning things that shouldn't be questioned.

01:02:56.120 So to me, it's obvious where the cult is.

01:02:59.300 The cult is the group that doesn't have access to all the information.

01:03:03.920 Now, Republicans can be wrong.

01:03:06.780 In other words, they can look at all the information 0.97

01:03:08.580 and come up with a conspiracy theory that's ridiculous.

01:03:10.980 Very common. 0.62

01:03:12.760 But they're wrong in a completely different way than the left is.

01:03:17.340 The right tends to be wrong by doing their own research

01:03:20.540 and finding some crazy things that they believe,

01:03:22.840 and maybe falling for the documentary effect

01:03:26.180 is the biggest problem.

01:03:27.820 I would say on the right, when the right is wrong,

01:03:31.880 it's because they fell for a narrative

01:03:34.020 without seeing the alternative.

01:03:37.140 But that's different from not seeing the news.

01:03:40.380 That's a little different.

01:03:42.760 All right.

01:03:45.340 All right.

01:03:47.620 One-third of Democrats believe that Trump staged his own assassination attempt,

01:03:53.440 according to the Washington Free Beacon.

01:03:58.140 What?

01:04:01.040 One-third?

01:04:02.020 How did they imagine that conversation went when Trump was planning his own assassination?

01:04:11.900 Can you see a meeting with the shooter like a few weeks before?

01:04:16.320 It's like, look, all you have to do is nick my ear right there.

01:04:20.500 I'll turn my head, like right at the last minute.

01:04:24.240 So you want to squeeze the trigger when my head is this way.

01:04:30.260 But as soon as you're squeezing it, I'll turn this way so it nicks my ear.

01:04:35.440 And we're going to make this look like it's a much bigger deal,

01:04:38.020 but it's really just a trick.

01:04:39.000 Well, I don't think they believe that exactly.

01:04:43.500 But you have to be pretty far gone to think it was staged.

01:04:48.720 I mean, what do they think is staged?

01:04:50.880 Do they think that it wasn't really the bullet that hit him?

01:04:53.140 Sometimes they're saying it was the broken glass from the teleprompter.

01:04:56.740 But is that really different?

01:05:01.060 It's been debunked.

01:05:02.440 But if it turned down, it was glass from the teleprompter,

01:05:05.160 and the bullet was whizzing past his head,

01:05:07.360 and it missed him by a foot instead of an inch,

01:05:09.840 or at least the main part of his head by an inch,

01:05:12.920 would that really radically change the story?

01:05:16.180 No.

01:05:17.440 But it definitely is not a staged event.

01:05:22.660 I mean, I can say that with some confidence.

01:05:25.200 All right.

01:05:27.340 Here's a reframe for you.

01:05:31.120 I'll let this one sink in.

01:05:32.760 This one's a thinker.

01:05:34.220 You ready for this?

01:05:35.920 If you registered for the political party

01:05:38.800 that wants both candidates to die before the end of summer,

01:05:42.680 you should maybe start asking some questions about your point of view.

01:05:48.160 Think about it.

01:05:50.240 The Democrats want Biden to get out of the race,

01:05:53.260 and they wouldn't mind if he died early,

01:05:54.880 because they want to win. 0.65

01:05:58.540 And they definitely wish that Trump would maybe die of natural causes.

01:06:04.340 So one of the parties is hoping that both of the major candidates die before the end of summer.

01:06:09.480 Sort of.

01:06:10.100 I mean, they don't say it out loud, but sometimes they do.

01:06:12.980 At least they say it about Trump.

01:06:16.320 So if your political party has an unstated preference for both of the candidates dying before the end of summer,

01:06:26.000 you should really recheck your affiliations.

01:06:29.960 You should ask yourself, huh, am I in the right political party?

01:06:34.540 Because they seem to, at least subconsciously, want both candidates to be dead before the end of summer.

01:06:41.260 That doesn't feel like the healthiest situation.

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01:07:58.780 Anyway, AOC says the Democrats want not only Biden to leave,

01:08:09.020 but they want Harris to leave too,

01:08:10.600 and that would be terrible and racist,

01:08:12.840 and so she's calling them out for that.

01:08:16.000 But I was noting that AOC used to be somewhat persuasively awesome,

01:08:22.760 even if you hated her point of view. 0.99

01:08:25.840 But lately, she turned into just sort of silly and ridiculous. 0.99

01:08:30.720 And I noted a big change, 0.99

01:08:33.060 and I didn't know what that was about.

01:08:35.100 Mike Cernovich was noting that she had a handler in the early days,

01:08:40.800 which was well documented,

01:08:42.740 and that the handler left,

01:08:45.180 and that what we see now is the actual AOC,

01:08:47.200 and that she was so empty all the time,

01:08:50.580 but she had a good handler,

01:08:52.200 so she would do some good stunts,

01:08:54.380 and she would get some good quotes in,

01:08:56.460 and she'd reframe things well.

01:08:58.620 And apparently all that was fake.

01:09:01.700 I mean, that's the assumption,

01:09:05.480 is that she lost her guardian angel,

01:09:09.500 and then we see what she's really got going for.

01:09:11.840 Not much.

01:09:12.360 Well, the Heartland Institute did a calculation

01:09:17.000 of how much money U.S. households lost

01:09:20.360 because of Joe Biden's terrible energy plans.

01:09:24.340 It says $2,500 per household per year since 2021.

01:09:30.720 Now, do we believe that analysis?

01:09:33.200 Well, no.

01:09:34.560 I guarantee that that's the sort of analysis

01:09:41.020 that you could maybe get in a directional sense,

01:09:44.120 but no, not super accurate

01:09:46.240 because you put a lot of assumptions into analysis like that.

01:09:50.240 But we do see that there seems to be a set of policies

01:09:55.120 that would somewhat obviously increase your energy costs,

01:09:59.680 so I don't think the directional part of it is wrong.

01:10:02.380 You just have to, you know, is it $2,500 or $3,500 or $600?

01:10:08.400 That part's harder to determine.

01:10:10.800 But yeah, of course, the energy costs are higher.

01:10:14.780 But even more, there's another study by,

01:10:18.560 it's written up in PsyTech Daily,

01:10:21.360 that anxiety over climate change

01:10:24.180 might be costing trillions of dollars in lost productivity.

01:10:28.440 Trillions.

01:10:29.080 Now, as bad as it is to pay $2,500 per household

01:10:33.400 when you're already struggling,

01:10:35.300 I mean, if you're in that situation, that's the worst thing.

01:10:38.600 But here's why trillions are lost

01:10:41.520 because of anxiety over the climate.

01:10:46.700 So it causes people to act differently.

01:10:49.180 So you're not only going to get, you know, sick

01:10:52.620 and, you know, your mental health will decline.

01:10:55.380 So that affects productivity,

01:10:57.440 it affects healthcare, it affects everything.

01:11:00.020 But also, you won't have babies.

01:11:02.440 So you make different lifestyle choices.

01:11:05.020 And if you don't have children,

01:11:06.240 the economy is going to become China.

01:11:09.800 So one of the biggest reasons

01:11:11.500 that people are not having children

01:11:12.840 is they don't trust that the world

01:11:14.180 is still going to be here for their children.

01:11:15.720 So they opt out.

01:11:18.120 That is a trillion dollar problem.

01:11:21.580 Now this, again, you know,

01:11:24.400 if you're going to say,

01:11:25.340 but Scott, did they accurately calculate

01:11:27.720 that it's $2 trillion

01:11:28.720 or is it maybe only half a trillion?

01:11:31.380 Well, that's a good question.

01:11:33.040 I don't think you can get more accurate

01:11:34.700 than it's really, really, really expensive.

01:11:37.980 Beyond that, you know,

01:11:39.520 the trillion is just maybe a framing it

01:11:42.400 in the biggest possible sense,

01:11:44.000 which I think is probably legitimate

01:11:45.960 because if it causes the population replacement rate

01:11:52.080 to drop below replacement for a long time,

01:11:55.600 we're dead.

01:11:56.720 And that is a multi-trillion dollar problem for sure.

01:12:01.240 So yes, I do believe that it's trillions

01:12:03.640 that we're talking about

01:12:04.900 because of fear of climate change

01:12:06.800 that may be overstated

01:12:08.240 because climate models are not real.

01:12:11.840 They're not science either.

01:12:15.600 Ladies and gentlemen,

01:12:17.000 this brings me to the conclusion

01:12:18.400 in the speed round

01:12:20.580 of all the things happening.

01:12:23.540 Look at that.

01:12:24.420 My timing is not too bad.

01:12:26.120 So it's Saturday

01:12:26.760 and it's going to be a beautiful day

01:12:28.300 in most places

01:12:29.000 and you're going to go out

01:12:30.020 and have the greatest day.

01:12:32.100 And let me tell you,

01:12:33.280 you know, as you know,

01:12:34.780 I've talked about it too much.

01:12:36.220 I had a real bad day the other day

01:12:38.360 with some food poisoning.

01:12:39.620 So today's my first day

01:12:41.440 where I'm, you know, truly 100%.

01:12:43.220 Oh my God, do I feel good.

01:12:46.760 Oh my God.

01:12:48.660 Nothing feels better than not feeling bad.

01:12:53.260 Boy, once you feel,

01:12:54.880 once you understand what feeling bad feels like,

01:12:57.300 like really bad,

01:12:58.460 when that's over,

01:12:59.960 oh my goodness.

01:13:03.800 But the,

01:13:04.760 and the funny thing is

01:13:06.060 you get your appetite back at the same time

01:13:07.960 and then you just become ravenous

01:13:10.540 after,

01:13:11.960 after,

01:13:12.440 I think I had 100 calories

01:13:13.800 in,

01:13:14.300 in like 40 hours or something.

01:13:17.560 So I was starving,

01:13:18.720 but I just couldn't eat.

01:13:20.260 But when I could,

01:13:21.360 oh my God,

01:13:22.020 did that feel good.

01:13:24.580 Felt so good.

01:13:26.080 The world is about contrast,

01:13:28.020 people.

01:13:29.120 Every now and then

01:13:29.780 you have to remind yourself

01:13:31.100 how bad it could be

01:13:32.080 so you can enjoy how good it is.

01:13:34.280 So remember,

01:13:35.600 it could be a lot worse.

01:13:37.260 So enjoy your day.

01:13:38.240 I'm going to talk privately

01:13:39.140 to the locals people,

01:13:40.760 but for everybody on YouTube

01:13:42.680 and X and Rumble,

01:13:44.600 thanks for joining.

01:13:45.880 See you tomorrow.

01:13:46.460 See you tomorrow.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - July 21, 2024

Episode 2541 CWSA 07⧸20⧸24

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