Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2557 CWSA 08⧸05⧸24

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to Coffee with Scott Adams, the highlight of human civilization.

00:00:08.260 If you'd like your experience to go up, unlike the stock market, to go up to levels that

00:00:13.960 you can't even believe, all you need for that is a cup or mug or glass, a tank or chalice

00:00:17.700 or stein, a canteen jug or flask, a vessel of any kind, fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:00:22.760 I like coffee.

00:00:23.880 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine at the end of the day, a thing

00:00:27.380 that makes everything better.

00:00:28.180 It's called the Simultaneous Sip, and it happens right now.

00:00:31.880 Go.

00:00:37.340 Life is complete, sort of.

00:00:42.620 Well, you're probably saying to yourself, is the world going to disappear?

00:00:47.220 Are we all dead?

00:00:48.360 No, you'll be fine.

00:00:49.820 You'll be fine.

00:00:50.640 We'll get to all the economics and the politics and all that.

00:00:54.060 But the most important story of the day, if you haven't heard it, I'm going to call it

00:01:00.200 RFK Jr. and the Dead Bear.

00:01:03.320 If you haven't seen this on social media yet, go search for RFK Jr. and the Bear.

00:01:09.500 I don't want to ruin the whole story, but I'll give you the beginning part, and then I'll

00:01:17.840 tell you that it just gets better.

00:01:19.840 So the beginning part is that I guess some automobile hit a bear and killed it.

00:01:25.480 And RFK Jr. was somehow in the neighborhood and thought, hey, I don't want to waste a completely

00:01:33.040 good dead bear.

00:01:34.700 I could have it skinned, and I could use that bear skin for something. 1.00

00:01:39.320 And by the way, the law of the land allowed him to make bear steaks, and so he could actually

00:01:46.460 eat it.

00:01:47.100 So he thought, I'm not going to waste this dead bear, so he put it in his car.

00:01:51.900 That's right.

00:01:52.480 He put a dead bear in his car.

00:01:54.640 But then he had things to do.

00:01:57.480 And he had a meeting, and then he had to go to the airport, and his plan to take care of

00:02:02.460 the bear in the appropriate way was thwarted by his own schedule.

00:02:08.220 And so, being the creative man that he is, he came up with another plan of what to do with

00:02:14.260 the dead bear.

00:02:14.880 Now, I'm not going to ruin it for you.

00:02:18.020 The only thing I'm going to tell you is that if you start listening to the story, do not

00:02:23.180 bail out before the end.

00:02:27.340 You're going to want to, because the story goes out a little ways.

00:02:30.940 But trust me, you've got to follow it to the end.

00:02:34.320 It's one of the best stories in any domain I've ever heard about anything.

00:02:38.500 It's just so weirdly beautiful that, you know, it's sort of a perfect slice of life.

00:02:44.880 So, definitely make sure you listen to the RFK Jr. and the dead bear story.

00:02:51.740 Anyway, there's yet another technology for extracting water, clean water out of the air,

00:02:57.040 even in dry climates.

00:02:58.800 It's a self-sustainable, runs on solar power, and you just put it outdoors and it makes water

00:03:08.420 forever with no maintenance whatsoever.

00:03:10.760 No maintenance.

00:03:12.420 It just sits there making water out of the air.

00:03:15.040 Now, that's pretty cool.

00:03:18.320 That's pretty cool.

00:03:19.360 We might all need that someday.

00:03:22.000 All right.

00:03:22.740 You all want to talk about the stock market and what's happening and Japan's having some

00:03:27.820 issues and blah, blah, blah.

00:03:30.660 Here's the bottom line.

00:03:32.560 How many of you didn't know there was going to be a correction?

00:03:35.220 Didn't every single one of you who invest say to yourself, oh, it's one of those times that

00:03:42.300 the market's getting a little ahead of itself?

00:03:45.300 I thought everybody knew it and that a 10 to 20% correction was pretty much guaranteed.

00:03:53.440 Isn't it the way it always goes?

00:03:54.860 So, here's my take on it.

00:03:57.720 It looks totally normal to me, but of course, with these stories, there's always stories

00:04:04.500 of the cause, right?

00:04:05.980 There's always something, oh, this caused it, and it did in the sense that it caused the

00:04:11.780 current thinking that will last a little while.

00:04:15.040 So, one of the things is this, apparently because Japan had something like zero interest

00:04:21.620 rates forever, a lot of people in Japan were borrowing because the interest rates were basically

00:04:29.280 zero, and then they would use it to speculate in other currencies, et cetera, and it's the

00:04:35.260 sort of thing that can catch up to you, and so the stock market in Japan took a dump, but

00:04:41.260 not like the end of the world dump, just a good, serious correction.

00:04:46.760 I think it was 12% down the last time I checked, but it's bouncing around.

00:04:52.960 If the only thing that happened is Japan had a 10 to 20% correction, and the rest of the

00:04:59.960 world did too, most of that would come back, and it would turn into maybe down 5 or 10%

00:05:06.400 for the year, and it'd be kind of normal.

00:05:08.680 So, one of the beauties of being my age is that having been through this cycle a bunch

00:05:15.460 of times, it all looks the same.

00:05:17.900 So, I don't think there's necessarily anything big to change, except I don't know what to

00:05:22.520 do about the debt, but the current problems are probably somewhat because Japan had a special

00:05:29.800 situation, and then, of course, we're going to look for all the other reasons, such as a

00:05:36.160 potential war with Iran, we'll talk about that, but if Iran decides to go big in their revenge 0.73

00:05:43.980 against Israel for killing that Hamas guy on their territory, if they decide to go big 0.99

00:05:50.140 and activate Hezbollah and Hamas and Syria and all their little proxies and things get

00:05:57.860 out of hand, it could lead to a close in the Straits of Hormuz, and then suddenly, everybody

00:06:05.640 who depends on that oil is in trouble, and one of those countries would be Japan.

00:06:11.320 So, Japan's got sort of a double whammy, something about the yen, but also something about the

00:06:17.540 supply of oil, two things that matter a lot to a country that doesn't produce enough oil

00:06:22.680 on its own. And then, on top of that, we hear the stories about Warren Buffett sold more than half

00:06:30.120 of all of his Apple stock, and people are saying, what does he know that we don't know he's cashing

00:06:37.020 out? To which I say, well, that's probably true that he's getting more into cash because he's

00:06:43.260 expecting there'll be a correction. But I think a bigger reason would be that Apple went up so much

00:06:51.520 since he bought it that by selling more than half of it, he just gets back to the amount he bought

00:06:57.640 in the first place. So, I think all he's doing is rebalancing his portfolio. If you had one stock

00:07:04.640 out of many that was your star performer, and for many years, it just was crazy, at some point,

00:07:12.560 you can't have that be, you know, 50% of your whole portfolio. You have to trim it. Now, that's why I did

00:07:18.780 it. I think I told you I sold my Apple stock earlier, several months ago. And the reason I did

00:07:25.600 it several months ago is partly because of AI, because I thought Apple didn't have an AI strategy

00:07:31.980 that was visible. You know, it could turn out they have the best AI strategy of all time,

00:07:37.260 which would be consistent with their history. But it opened up a uncertainty. Here's a little

00:07:45.480 investment wisdom from Warren Buffett. It's the one I used to sell Apple stock. So, it's not

00:07:54.480 surprisingly, he did it too. So, the reason I sold was because of Warren Buffett's advice,

00:07:59.360 not recently, but advice that I saw from him, maybe 25 years ago. And the advice was,

00:08:07.180 if you buy a stock, and you've got a reason for why you bought it, don't sell it unless the reason

00:08:12.840 changes. Which sounds dumb, doesn't it? You think, well, I don't know, that's not saying much.

00:08:21.700 But here's the example. I bought Apple stock because nothing could stop it. They had basically a

00:08:28.900 monopoly position for half of the phones. If you got into that Apple environment,

00:08:36.960 it was hard to ever leave. So, it was almost like they were just sucking money out of my pocket.

00:08:42.240 And I thought, well, if they can just suck money out of my pocket, and there's almost nothing I can

00:08:46.340 do about it, because I'm so hooked on their products, maybe other people have the same problem.

00:08:51.040 So, I owned this stock when it seemed like a monopoly, when there wasn't much that could go

00:08:56.800 wrong. But the introduction of AI changes everything. It might make them twice as much

00:09:04.000 money. It might, but you can't predict it anymore. So, the reason I bought it was that it was so

00:09:10.100 predictable, and it was so safe. And then it grew until it was too much of my portfolio.

00:09:16.540 It was like just too much of a risk for one company. And so, I did what Warren Buffett did,

00:09:22.420 exactly what he did. I reduced my risk in that one company, because the reason I bought it

00:09:27.120 was now different. And the reason that Warren Buffett bought Apple was also different.

00:09:34.060 And so, he ended up trimming it. So, two reasons to trim. One is it grew so much,

00:09:39.080 it's too much of his portfolio. That would be all the reason he needed. He doesn't need any

00:09:42.960 other reason. And the other would be the reason he bought it changed. So, he would reduce his

00:09:48.640 holdings. So, I don't think that's necessarily signaling some big problem. Because Warren Buffett

00:09:55.680 often says that the safest place is the American stock market. Where else are you going to put your

00:10:01.460 money? I mean, the problem is not that the stock market is good or bad. The problem is,

00:10:07.360 where else are you going to put money? So, Warren just says, well, just leave it there,

00:10:11.940 and it'll correct, and you'll be glad you left it there. So, most of his money is still in the

00:10:16.800 stock market. That's the more important statement. So, Rasmussen had a poll. 45% of U.S. likely voters

00:10:25.900 think the Biden economic policies have been generally successful. So, it's less than half.

00:10:32.220 But 53% think his economic policies, including Harris, I guess, would be unsuccessful.

00:10:42.060 Including 40% who say Biden has been very unsuccessful.

00:10:47.740 So, that's not too far from just the size of the parties. But it looks like the independents are

00:10:54.480 definitely leaning toward Trump on the economy. It looks like all the Democrats are for Biden and

00:11:00.700 all the Republicans are for Trump. But the independents seem strongly leaning toward Trump

00:11:06.860 on the economy. Speaking of Trump and the economy, here's something that Trump said recently that I

00:11:13.240 only just read today. According to Forbes, Trump was talking to Fox Business not too long ago.

00:11:21.820 He said, and I quote, crypto is a very interesting thing.

00:11:25.340 Quote, maybe we'll pay off our 35 trillion dollars and hand them a little crypto check,

00:11:31.500 right? We'll hand them a little Bitcoin and wipe out our 35 trillion. Is that a thing?

00:11:40.140 How in the world do you just pay off the national debt with Bitcoin? Now, you might remember that I

00:11:44.940 was asking this question publicly. Not necessarily about Bitcoin, but about crypto. Can you just invent a

00:11:52.140 crypto crypto that is like creating free money and then it pays off the debt? But then people said,

00:11:59.340 no, Scott, if you just create money, it wouldn't matter what form you create it. If you can exchange

00:12:05.980 it for the regular dollar, you've created inflation. And then I saw another opinion, which was much

00:12:12.700 smarter, which said, yes, you can pay off the dollar debt with crypto. You know, you just buy a bunch of

00:12:22.620 crypto in the US government's name. You wait for it to go up in value, like Bitcoin just naturally goes

00:12:29.660 up in value. And then you basically use it to pay off the debt. And I said, well, would that cause

00:12:36.620 inflation so that the dollar part would be inflated into infinity? And the expert said, yes, the dollars

00:12:44.380 would just become useless. But it's going to happen anyway. In other words, inflation will make your

00:12:50.940 regular dollars useless. So it doesn't matter that if you've sped it up a little bit with crypto and just

00:12:57.820 made all your debt go away because the debt would go away from inflation anyway. Now, that seems a little

00:13:04.140 extreme. But let me read, I just saw before I went live here, John Thompson on the X platform, who may

00:13:14.860 be listening right now, did a little analysis about what that would look like if he used Bitcoin to pay

00:13:21.660 off the debt. And the idea would be, let's see if I understand this. Let's say the US government

00:13:29.900 decided to use a bunch of dollars to buy a bunch of Bitcoin. So the US government, of course, has to

00:13:37.660 borrow to do anything. But let's say it took $270 billion and just bought a bunch of Bitcoin. And then

00:13:44.940 you just use your predictions for the natural growth of value of Bitcoin, since it's a limited thing with

00:13:52.380 the demand. And you just say, okay, in 10 or 20 years, Bitcoin will go up so much, it will equal the

00:14:00.220 debt. And then you'd have a way to pay it off. But of course, that's where the inflation kicks in. So

00:14:06.780 it's not like free money. Your regular dollars would be inflated away. But there is some kind of an idea

00:14:16.380 that if the government used its dollars to buy Bitcoins, it would be like an investment.

00:14:24.140 So let's say you're, let's say if the government, instead of buying Bitcoin,

00:14:29.340 let's say the government bought the stocks. Just thinking this through, I'm not suggesting,

00:14:35.100 I'm just thinking it through. If the government bought a bunch of stocks, and then the stocks went

00:14:40.940 up in value, and the value was so much that it could pay off the national debt, would that create inflation?

00:14:52.780 Does anybody know?

00:14:55.660 So here's the question. In this specific case, because Bitcoin has this unique ability

00:15:03.020 that there'll be limited, limited supply by design, but yet the demand could go up for a while.

00:15:11.420 The value of a Bitcoin, one Bitcoin should go up quite a bit in the natural course of life.

00:15:17.660 So how's that different than just an investment?

00:15:23.020 Is it? If the US government bought something that was just

00:15:27.340 worth 35 trillion dollars after a number of years, but they didn't pay that much,

00:15:32.620 would that not create money that they could use to pay off the debt? And if they did,

00:15:37.420 would it be inflationary? I don't know. So I'm in territory that I'm not an expert in,

00:15:50.700 but I'll say that Trump floated the idea, and people were smart to say, yeah, I mean,

00:15:56.220 it's going to happen anyway. Your dollars are going to get deflated into nothing, no matter what you do.

00:16:01.340 So can you see a way that this ends? I'm not so sure. It's a fascinating conversation. And I love

00:16:11.900 especially that Trump wades into it. I don't know that he completely understands the situation like

00:16:17.980 most of us don't. But the fact that he's even noodling on it is kind of interesting. Very interesting.

00:16:26.220 All right.

00:16:26.460 This is a poll from YouGov, according to the Gateway Pundit. 92% of voters believe Kamala Harris is to blame

00:16:36.620 for covering Joe Biden's obvious mental decline. I feel like that's an attack vector that Trump

00:16:46.300 hasn't fully exploited. Meaning that pretty much everybody believes that she was covering up one of

00:16:53.260 the biggest secrets in the biggest secrets in political life. And a bad one, like a really bad

00:16:57.820 one. I don't know how she can explain that. There's nothing she can say about that that's not going to sound like

00:17:05.340 bullshit. So that's a strong attack. Because remember, her attack, Harris's attack on Trump

00:17:14.540 is that character thing. Oh, he's a liar, he's a liar. But she's the biggest liar we've seen.

00:17:22.620 It's one thing to be a salesperson liar, where you say, I was better on this, and I was better on that,

00:17:28.540 and the economy was great, even if it's an exaggeration. Those are sort of salesperson lies.

00:17:35.820 But to actually cover up that the president can't function, that's a really, really deep lie.

00:17:43.260 That's the kind that could get the entire country destroyed. The stuff that Trump lies about,

00:17:50.540 well, here's a test for you. All right. Here's a good test. I've never seen anybody ask this question.

00:17:56.300 And maybe there's like a clever answer to it that I haven't anticipated. So we'll try this live.

00:18:04.140 Everybody knows, everybody's a Democrat, believes this to be true, that Trump's lying is bad for

00:18:11.660 everything, right? That Trump doesn't pass the fact checks. And therefore, that's going to be bad for

00:18:19.740 the America if he's in charge. That's the claim. All this lying is very bad for America.

00:18:26.540 It's obvious. All this lying, bad, bad, bad. Here's my question. Name one thing that broke

00:18:34.460 during Trump's first term because of his lying. It has to be because of the lie, not for any other

00:18:42.620 reason because things break. But what was within four years, name me the one thing that went wrong

00:18:51.420 because Trump failed the fact check? Anything? Can you think of anything?

00:18:59.580 Now compare that to

00:19:00.780 compare that to Harris hiding a Biden situation. That was bad even for Democrats because it

00:19:11.180 constrained their choices. They didn't get a regular primary situation to come up with the

00:19:16.540 best person. So I would say that Harris's lying about Biden's health was good for Harris

00:19:23.980 and bad for the country in a way that even Democrats can see because now they're running Harris because

00:19:31.660 they didn't have time to do a proper primary, which could have gotten them somebody who would

00:19:36.380 just easily beat Trump perhaps. But Harris might be uniquely unable to beat him because she hasn't

00:19:43.100 talked yet in public. As soon as she gets some tough questions, we don't know where this is going to go.

00:19:50.300 So it looks like she is behind the biggest, most dangerous and damaging lie in American history.

00:19:58.380 I can't think of any lie ever told by the government. I suppose you could get into the pandemic stuff,

00:20:06.380 but that was lies by the experts as well as the government.

00:20:11.980 It seems to be the biggest lie I've ever seen that's obviously damaging. It's obviously damaging to Democrats.

00:20:20.460 because they didn't get their first choice for a candidate.

00:20:25.020 Presumably.

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00:21:23.260 for details. Please play responsibly. Well, there's a new peer-reviewed scientific

00:21:31.100 paper that people are taking seriously that says that, you know how you thought the government told

00:21:37.740 you that CO2 increases increased temperature? Do you remember the first thing I said about climate

00:21:45.020 change when I didn't know anything about it well over, I don't know, 25 years ago or something?

00:21:50.460 And I remember hearing that the fear was that CO2 rising happens at, you know, roughly the same time

00:22:00.780 as temperatures, so the CO2 must be causing the temperatures. Do you remember what I said?

00:22:08.540 I said the same thing I always say for every study. Well, you showed correlation, but how do we know it

00:22:16.860 doesn't work the other way? Because I'm pretty sure that warming also creates more plants. And, you know,

00:22:26.780 anyway, it just seemed to me that warming probably was associated with more CO2.

00:22:30.860 And sure enough, this new peer-reviewed paper, which doesn't mean it's true. Remember, peer-reviewed

00:22:39.180 doesn't mean much because you can always get somebody to say, oh yeah, that looks good to me.

00:22:44.460 But they seem to have shown, according to them, that it's very clear both on an annual level, a decade

00:22:52.220 level and a 100-year level. On any scale you look at, it's obvious that the temperature came before the CO2 increase.

00:22:59.820 Do you think that's true? What if that's, what if that is borne out by other studies?

00:23:13.100 It suggests that maybe the entire climate thing is ready to just disappear and that it was never real.

00:23:19.340 And I think the pandemic is what might be the final thing. Because before the pandemic,

00:23:28.220 I think people were quite poised to say that science was always right. And people who were

00:23:33.740 going to complain about 98% of the scientists, obviously were wrong. Because I mean, 98% of

00:23:40.380 scientists can't be wrong, right? And then we learned, oh yeah, not only can 97% of scientists be wrong,

00:23:50.140 it would be ordinary. That's the big deal. The big deal is not that it's possible

00:23:57.580 that 98% of scientists could be wrong. The big deal is that we now know that's ordinary.

00:24:08.220 That's new. That's new. And we also know the mechanism. The mechanism that if the experts have

00:24:15.260 any kind of a boss, an employer, or any kind of a funding request that the employer and whoever does

00:24:23.980 funding will be weak links and they will have to do whatever is the standard narrative.

00:24:30.140 So since the boss has to go along with the standard narrative, it's too risky for them not to.

00:24:36.620 And they have to go with the narrative to get funding. And almost everybody has a boss or needs

00:24:42.620 funding. You can get to 98% of experts lying so easily. It requires nothing unusual. They simply have to

00:24:53.660 have jobs. And they do. The only thing you need to know is that the experts work for somebody.

00:25:00.620 And you can guarantee that they will conform to the narrative even if they don't believe it.

00:25:05.100 So now that you know that for sure, that's not hypothetical. It's not some weird theory I

00:25:12.780 concocted. It's observable every single time. Well, that's got to hurt your climate change claims.

00:25:21.180 Because that's all about the 98% say it's true. And now we know that means absolutely nothing.

00:25:26.060 Absolutely nothing. Absolutely nothing. All right. There's this weird story. Undercover DC has this

00:25:33.660 story that Tulsi Gabbard was being surveilled by some division of the TSA that follows people around

00:25:43.900 who are suspected terrorists. So if you're a suspected terrorist, but you're still allowed to fly,

00:25:49.500 there's some group within the TSA that will literally follow you around. So they'll follow

00:25:56.540 you around when you're waiting for the flight. They might even be on the flight to keep an eye on you.

00:26:02.540 I didn't know any of this. Did you know this was the thing? And then some whistleblower says that

00:26:09.820 Tulsi Gabbard is one of the people that they're following around. It's the Quiet Skies program.

00:26:15.580 Now, here's what I think about this story. There's something wrong with this story.

00:26:24.700 If you buy this as a complete story, I think that's a mistake.

00:26:31.980 There's obviously something we don't know about the story. It might be something terrible.

00:26:38.620 It doesn't mean that it's something innocent. It could be even worse than the story sounds.

00:26:43.260 But we don't know what's going on here. They didn't simply decide that Tulsi Gabbard is the

00:26:50.540 most dangerous person in the country. So they're going to follow around. And why would you follow

00:26:55.100 around? How would that help anybody? Suppose you were anti-Tulsi Gabbard. And so you're going to follow

00:27:03.180 her around in the airport. For what? What? Unless she has an actual terrorist device with her, which she 0.97

00:27:11.020 doesn't. How is that going to help anybody do anything? How is that even anti-Tulsi? So none of it makes

00:27:18.860 sense. So I'm going to say, put a pin in this story and wait to see if you learn anything useful,

00:27:25.900 because there's something missing from the story. I don't know what it is, but I don't buy it on its

00:27:33.100 surface. So anyway, over in Great Britain, apparently there's a bunch of white people rioting.

00:27:42.060 They're not even Antifa. They're being described as far right extremists. And they're causing a lot of

00:27:50.060 trouble in burning stuff and looting stores. And it seems to be mostly driven by an anti-immigration

00:27:58.220 policy reaction. And so I asked myself, how big do you think this will get? The anti-immigration

00:28:07.820 white people rioting in Great Britain? Do you think that's going to get bigger? Or do you think,

00:28:13.820 you know, there's maybe a few weeks of trouble in the summer and then everybody goes back to work?

00:28:18.140 I don't know. So several, let's see, there have only been 150 arrests.

00:28:26.780 It's mostly Islamophobic and anti-immigration, they're calling it, because there was some knife

00:28:32.380 attack that killed three young girls at a Taylor Swift-themed party. But I think there was some

00:28:38.460 fake news about it, which made people think it was immigrants and maybe it wasn't. And so things

00:28:44.940 turned violent. So most of the major cities in Britain are affected.

00:28:54.620 Here's what I think. I think Britain's already done. I think the immigration policy has basically 0.79

00:29:03.500 destroyed whatever they had as a coherent culture. So I don't know what's going to happen to it, but it

00:29:09.900 won't be Great Britain. It's not going to be run by a bunch of white people. So I don't think the 0.99

00:29:15.740 white people have the desire to be violent enough that it would make a difference. I don't think 0.98

00:29:23.660 anything short of violence would change their situation. I don't recommend it. So I'm not

00:29:28.860 recommending it. I'm just stating the obvious, that anything short of major violence will keep

00:29:34.380 things exactly the way they are, which would be the end of Great Britain. So I think you can write

00:29:39.900 them off. There's nothing that looks like there's a counterforce big enough. There might be a lot of

00:29:45.100 rioting, but it's not a big enough counterforce. So anything short of massive violence will make

00:29:51.580 no difference whatsoever. And I don't expect that to be massive. So I think it's the last whining before

00:29:59.100 they go under, actually. Here's an interesting update. Every single day we get another little

00:30:06.540 dribble about the Secret Service failure to protect Trump at that rally. And the Amuse account on X

00:30:14.940 is summarizing this. So apparently in Pennsylvania, because it's an open carry area,

00:30:23.020 it would have been completely legal for any citizen who had illegal access to a gun, including a serious

00:30:32.940 looking rifle, to simply put it over your shoulder and walk around directly outside the rally. Did you

00:30:40.140 know that? If you'd brought your own rifle and had it, I think, external, I mean, you could just put

00:30:49.100 it over your shoulder. You could have stood right outside the rally and the Secret Service wouldn't

00:30:54.460 be able to do a damn thing because it would be outside the security zone and it would be completely

00:31:00.220 legal to have your own legal gun. So part of what, and who knows how many times this story will change,

00:31:09.500 but part of it is that they may have seen a guy with a gun on a roof and they knew that if they shot

00:31:16.860 him, it would be murder because he might be legal to have a gun and being on the roof isn't illegal.

00:31:23.980 I mean, it might be trespassing, but it's not, shoot, you illegal. So that they would have to

00:31:28.700 actually wait until he pointed and shot. I don't know if pointing is enough. It seems like it should

00:31:34.220 be. But their hesitation was that it might have been a citizen with a legal gun. Now, does that sound

00:31:41.420 real to you? Doesn't sound real to me. Nope. Nope. I think there's something being hidden.

00:31:50.540 There's some indication that somebody lied again. Everything about this is sketchy.

00:31:56.620 Why was this the first time that they ever even had counter snipers? So the first time they ever had

00:32:02.300 counter snipers, they needed counter snipers. That's a pretty big coincidence, isn't it? The first time

00:32:10.060 they've used counter snipers for a non-presidential thing. And then they're claiming that the reason

00:32:14.940 they don't have the recordings of the conversations of the secret service during the event is that

00:32:22.140 they were not recorded because it would not be normal to record unless it's a president or a vice

00:32:27.740 president. And since he's only a candidate at the moment, it was not their deal to record it.

00:32:34.540 To which I say, what?

00:32:40.780 In what world wouldn't it make sense to have a recording if any action happened? If you're going

00:32:46.940 to have a sniper team, it's because you think things are important. You don't bring the sniper team,

00:32:54.220 you know, the anti-sniper team. You don't bring the snipers unless you think something important might

00:32:59.660 happen. And if you think something important might happen, why in the world would you have a rule that

00:33:04.940 says you delete your evidence right after it happens or don't save it? None of that makes sense.

00:33:14.700 Yeah. So everything about that story is not holding together.

00:33:17.660 Balaji Srinivasan warns us, and as he has before, that our military drones, actually all of our drones

00:33:29.500 in the United States, are primarily made in China. So even if the drone doesn't say made in China,

00:33:36.620 it's full of parts that are made in China. So we don't have an independent manufacturing facility for

00:33:44.620 drones, the most important future medical or future military device. And it turns out that

00:33:55.100 almost all of our other military equipment is also at least partly made in China. Now,

00:34:04.380 when I first heard this story, my first reaction was, oh my God, this means China could beat us in a war 0.84

00:34:10.860 because they would just wear us out and we'd run out of resources because China makes it. 0.93

00:34:18.300 And then I thought to myself, why would China ever want a war?

00:34:25.500 You know, we tend to put, I guess, an American spin on things. You know, America likes starting wars.

00:34:35.020 We're like really big on starting wars. So you naturally assume that other countries might be big on starting wars too.

00:34:43.980 Right? But what exactly would China ever want to start a war for?

00:34:50.060 I think whatever is going to happen in Taiwan, they can control by not invading. They can just wait it out. 0.92

00:34:57.820 And it looks like that's what they're going to do. But even if they invaded Taiwan,

00:35:04.220 I feel like that wouldn't become a general war. It might get really messy in Taiwan.

00:35:10.620 But I feel like it would still be limited.

00:35:14.220 I can't think of any scenario in which China as a country would want to be in something like a general

00:35:20.460 war with the United States or anybody else, anybody else, because we don't have a border.

00:35:25.660 And we have so much economic connections, it would be devastating for both.

00:35:33.020 Why in the world would we ever have a war? You know, and there's a similar but different situation with Russia.

00:35:41.340 Russia definitely doesn't want to have a war with the United States, even though it's sort of in one and directly.

00:35:46.060 But with Russia, we do suspect that Putin has some ambitions, you know, to control other countries.

00:35:56.700 And that's, you know, that's warlike. But China seems to already control everything except Taiwan.

00:36:03.340 And in the long run, that's only going to go in one direction. So they're patient.

00:36:09.180 I think we should just admit that the US and China don't have any reason to be at war and maybe act like that.

00:36:17.180 And I don't see that ever changing, actually. So of all the things that I'd worry about in the world, at the very bottom is a war with China. 0.55

00:36:28.540 It's just the bottom. I would worry about everything before I'd worry about that.

00:36:35.420 They just don't want to. And we don't want to. And we have no reason. And it doesn't look like anything would ever change that would make us want to have a general war.

00:36:43.340 Anyway, so remember, I told you that Josh Shapiro seemed like the likely candidate choice for vice president for Kamala Harris.

00:36:54.600 And as of today, the news is still saying it could be any one of the people we've talked about.

00:37:01.000 So it's not a done deal.

00:37:04.060 Some people say that the Josh Shapiro story was intentionally leaked just to see how people would take it.

00:37:11.100 I don't think so.

00:37:14.800 That assumes a little bit of extra cleverness and capability that I think we have.

00:37:21.360 I think it was just a mistake.

00:37:23.240 I also think that choices of vice president can often be up in the air until like 24 hours before the announcement.

00:37:33.320 I think that it just goes back and forth and like, how about this one? How about that one?

00:37:37.300 Like, right until the last minute.

00:37:39.660 So even if there was some point where Josh Shapiro was the number one preference, it's not real until it's real.

00:37:48.400 Everything's totally hard to guess.

00:37:51.920 But allegedly tomorrow, Harris might announce who that person is.

00:37:57.260 We'll see.

00:37:57.760 Breitbart is reporting that Kamala Harris is backpedaling on yet another one of her radical policy things from the past.

00:38:12.540 At one point, she wanted a federal job guarantee so that everybody who was unemployed could at least have a federal job.

00:38:23.860 Doing what?

00:38:24.600 I don't know.

00:38:25.720 But now she says, absolutely not.

00:38:27.820 She's totally against that.

00:38:30.000 And part of me doesn't care when people change their minds about policies, especially if they're changing it from something crazy to something more mainstream, which would be a case here.

00:38:43.100 But in this one weird situation, since we don't know who the president is, and we're watching Harris, who should be the one setting policy, running away from all of her old policy positions.

00:38:59.720 Now, do you think she's doing that? 0.99

00:39:04.320 Or do you think that there's somebody who runs Biden who also runs her and is telling her to go to the mainstream or they won't support her?

00:39:12.660 That's what it looks like.

00:39:14.660 That's what it looks like.

00:39:16.160 So we really don't know who's running the country.

00:39:18.860 And that's not hyperbole.

00:39:21.060 It's definitely not hyperbole.

00:39:23.020 We literally don't know who's running the country.

00:39:25.560 So that's bad.

00:39:30.080 And Zero Hedge is reporting that Russia might be aggressively behind the Houthis and Iran, may have already sent weapons to Iran, because the hypothesis is that it would be good for Russia to drag the U.S. into another larger regional war.

00:39:52.000 Because then we would have less will for war in general, and maybe we would settle with them a little faster. 0.92

00:40:00.620 So that seems at least, I would say on the surface, probably they're helping in some way.

00:40:10.260 They may be helping a lot less than they could, which would make it look the opposite of the way it's reported.

00:40:16.240 So if, let's say, Iran was just really, really pressuring Russia to help, and Russia wanted to remain an ally with Iran, but didn't really want to create another big war,

00:40:30.060 they might give them some stuff so they could say they did something, but not enough to make it a really big war.

00:40:38.860 So Russia probably has this, you know, narrow little window where they can help a little bit, because they are allies with Iran.

00:40:47.980 But they don't want to go overboard, because there could be some pushback on that.

00:40:53.600 It would be severe.

00:40:55.380 So we'll see.

00:40:58.140 But, like I said, no missiles flying yet.

00:41:02.340 There's some thought that if they try to overwhelm the Israeli defenses, that pure number of missiles would be too many for the iron gnome to stop.

00:41:16.780 But do you think Iran is, has the right risk profile to do a major damaging attack on an Israeli population center? 0.76

00:41:30.040 I think no.

00:41:32.340 I think no.

00:41:35.400 So I think that whatever Iran does may take longer than we thought, because they've got to really think this through,

00:41:42.620 but will be maybe weirdly militarily focused.

00:41:49.840 I don't know that.

00:41:51.940 But if I were Iran, I would want to take out, let's say, a weapons depot, 1.00

00:41:56.580 or just some kind of asset, maybe even just the, you know, the air defense assets.

00:42:09.800 Bank more encores when you switch to a Scotiabank banking package.

00:42:14.800 Learn more at scotiabank.com slash banking packages.

00:42:18.100 Conditions apply.

00:42:19.920 Scotiabank.

00:42:20.640 You're richer than you think.

00:42:21.700 So one possibility is that Iran will try to avoid population centers and go after a military target because it's less likely to escalate.

00:42:34.500 I don't know.

00:42:37.800 So we'll see.

00:42:40.340 And then reports are that when colleges are back in session after the summer, the pro-Palestinian protests will just kick right back in.

00:42:51.140 So the U.S. will be full of protesters as soon as college is back.

00:42:58.160 Do you believe that any protests in the United States are organic?

00:43:02.280 I don't.

00:43:03.700 I don't think that the United States has people who spontaneously go to the streets to protest anything.

00:43:12.120 There has to be an organizer or nothing happens.

00:43:14.760 And the organizer is almost always paid by somebody, either our government or another government.

00:43:22.460 So I just don't see any protests as real.

00:43:26.780 Now, the opposite would be, you know, maybe some BLM stuff that jumped up because the news got everybody excited.

00:43:34.380 But even BLM was backed by billionaire money.

00:43:37.960 Anyway, Wall Street Journal is reporting that Russia may have rushed that hostage deal with the U.S.

00:43:48.440 because they wanted to get it done before Trump got in office.

00:43:52.280 Joel Pollack had predicted that, and apparently the Wall Street Journal is confirming it,

00:43:58.260 that the timing of it was not a coincidence.

00:44:01.320 It was to do it before the election.

00:44:04.660 Now, why would they do that?

00:44:06.100 Why would Russia care?

00:44:10.000 Do you think they want Biden to be in charge?

00:44:13.380 Do they prefer Biden so they make Biden look good by getting that done?

00:44:19.320 Is that what's going on?

00:44:21.000 Or could it be as simple as the fact that Trump says he doesn't give anything for hostages?

00:44:27.600 So maybe Russia said if we trade him now, we'll get a bunch of our prisoners back at the same time.

00:44:33.520 So that'll be good for us.

00:44:34.620 If we wait for Trump, Trump is going to say, give us our prisoners or we will sanction you to death.

00:44:42.500 And then they basically just have to cave and give him the prisoners.

00:44:47.140 So we don't know exactly what Putin's thinking, but I doubt he's, well, maybe he did want to prop

00:44:55.040 up the Biden-Harris group just because he thinks that they're weak.

00:45:01.120 Maybe.

00:45:02.840 Don't know.

00:45:03.920 But it does show that he didn't want, he wasn't really enthusiastic about a Trump presidency.

00:45:10.600 And that's got to be good for Trump.

00:45:12.580 Because the best thing that Trump could do is have an argument that Putin is working against

00:45:17.780 Trump.

00:45:18.880 And this would look like one of those situations.

00:45:22.800 All right.

00:45:23.000 Elon Musk has reopened his lawsuit against ChatGPT, according to Reuters.

00:45:27.560 So he's suing the open AI people.

00:45:30.760 Because remember, that's the group that he was part of, was Sam Altman.

00:45:35.080 And he was the original big money into open AI.

00:45:39.560 Because it was promised that it would be an open thing, not a commercial thing.

00:45:43.340 But then Microsoft got involved and now it's a total commercial thing.

00:45:46.660 So Elon is suing.

00:45:50.200 I don't know if that's just for competitive reasons or what.

00:45:56.440 Anyway, so according to PJ Media, Biden's freezing these immigration flights where they

00:46:03.520 were bringing in 30,000 citizens a month from places like Cuba and Haiti and Nicaragua and

00:46:09.300 Venezuela.

00:46:09.700 And the reason they paused it, because there was a massive fraud alleged by the sponsors

00:46:17.240 and the migrants.

00:46:18.420 So it wasn't the migrants themselves that were doing a fraud, but there were moneyed sponsors

00:46:24.280 that were organizing it all.

00:46:27.580 And they have apparently been accused of some major fraud.

00:46:30.820 So that program's on hold.

00:46:33.620 Why did that program ever exist?

00:46:36.600 Not for any good reason for America.

00:46:38.380 No, it was either for electoral advantage for Democrats or something, but wasn't what was

00:46:46.280 good for America, obviously.

00:46:49.760 Are you aware that the way our US government controls free speech is that there are all

00:46:55.520 these, somebody called them pop-up industries, that are international groups whose job it is

00:47:03.120 is to monitor the fact-checking of social media.

00:47:08.680 So these are basically fake groups that will, essentially, they're looking to get rid of

00:47:16.240 alternative voices.

00:47:17.460 Anybody who's against the narrative.

00:47:19.700 So basically conservatives.

00:47:21.060 So there's this whole industry of fake pop-up fact-checkers that are really just to stop

00:47:29.440 conservatives.

00:47:31.240 And, you know, they'll always say it's about misinformation, but they only chase misinformation

00:47:36.300 in one direction.

00:47:37.680 Yeah, these are the so-called NGOs, non-government organizations.

00:47:42.040 So it looks like the way the intelligence people in the US control free speech is by making sure

00:47:50.900 that if you're an entity that requires advertising dollars to survive, they'll have some fake

00:47:57.180 entities say that you're a liar, and then they'll talk to the biggest advertising groups,

00:48:03.380 and they'll say to the advertising groups, hey, these big entities that are independent,

00:48:08.680 but not really independent, they're fake, say that this group is bad apples.

00:48:15.880 So you should not give any of them, any of your advertising dollars to these groups.

00:48:20.720 So they can basically bankrupt any group that's making money and saying things they don't like

00:48:29.220 to hear.

00:48:29.540 Now, let me ask you this question after some time has gone by.

00:48:35.040 How many of you think that I got canceled from my Dilber job because of what I said?

00:48:43.900 Versus how many of you think it was to make sure that I didn't have money and that I would

00:48:48.920 drop out of being a public figure?

00:48:53.500 It's kind of coincidental that there's this entire structure whose job it is to bankrupt

00:48:59.080 people on the right, such as Alex Jones got rid of Tucker Carlson, Roseanne lost her job.

00:49:10.760 Yeah.

00:49:11.240 You do notice that there's this big coincidence that whenever there is a conservative who has

00:49:17.660 some source of money, that source of money will go away because it will be attacked.

00:49:23.440 Does that happen in the other direction too?

00:49:27.840 Yeah.

00:49:28.540 So I don't believe anything about my cancellation.

00:49:31.880 I don't believe that had anything to do with anything I said because I've actually said

00:49:35.700 that before.

00:49:36.440 I don't know.

00:49:37.200 I said exactly the same thing in public before.

00:49:40.040 It's just that when it's taken in context, nobody really even shrugs.

00:49:44.660 It's only out of context that it sounds alarming.

00:49:47.180 By the way, if anybody is new to this and says, what do you mean it's out of context?

00:49:53.860 You said black people are a hate group.

00:49:55.640 What are you talking about?

00:49:56.860 I was there.

00:49:57.680 I saw it.

00:49:58.620 I saw the video.

00:50:00.400 Now, the context is that in the context of ESG and CRT and DEI, white people are being framed

00:50:08.940 by the common narrative to be the problem.

00:50:13.040 And they're the ones that have the money and resources and you should take it from them

00:50:17.780 because they have it illegitimately.

00:50:20.860 Anytime you're in that situation, you want to get away from it if you can because you

00:50:25.640 literally have been targeted.

00:50:27.860 If you're being targeted where you live, you should try to live somewhere else if you have

00:50:33.120 an option.

00:50:34.560 And likewise, because there's so much racial animosity that's been drummed up by the bad

00:50:42.680 people in the world, that if you just have co-workers who are diverse, your odds of getting

00:50:49.320 sued go through the roof. 0.92

00:50:52.760 Now, I like diversity, but here's a fact.

00:50:57.300 A white man will never sue me for discrimination.

00:51:00.840 That's just a fact.

00:51:02.460 So if I happen to be working with mostly white men, one thing we wouldn't worry about is anybody 0.87

00:51:07.400 suing us.

00:51:08.020 If you work with a diverse group, your odds of being sued if you're the white guy and

00:51:13.340 you're in charge are really, really high, really, really high.

00:51:17.360 So you would want to get away from any situation where you had high risk and go where you have

00:51:22.100 lower risk.

00:51:23.560 Everybody agrees with that strategy that you should go where you have lower risk, all things

00:51:29.360 being equal.

00:51:29.840 So if you looked at what I said in context, and of course I didn't get to complete the

00:51:39.180 context because I get canceled so quickly, but everybody who was a regular viewer of my

00:51:46.500 stream knew what the context was.

00:51:49.380 Yeah.

00:51:50.160 These are purely punitive actions against people who go against the narrative.

00:51:56.040 That's what it is.

00:51:56.920 You do not live in a country with free speech or anything like it.

00:52:03.260 There's a concern now that AI will be so good that people will prefer AI as companions and

00:52:09.440 even lovers compared to humans.

00:52:13.220 And it will be further destruction of humankind, not just reproduction, but our ability to even

00:52:20.160 relate to each other.

00:52:21.820 Now, you may say to yourself, well, that's a little overblown.

00:52:24.540 I'm not going to fall in love with a robot.

00:52:27.160 Yes, you will.

00:52:29.200 Let me tell you just as clearly as I can.

00:52:32.780 Yes, AI and robots will have the ability to make you fall in love.

00:52:37.180 You do not have the ability to resist that.

00:52:40.200 Now, I'm not saying every single person, of course, but most people.

00:52:44.780 The average person will find that the AI that is good to them all the time and never tries

00:52:52.140 to sabotage them, never tries to, you know, shit test them, you know, never, never is unavailable.

00:53:01.100 You're going to find that very appealing.

00:53:02.900 And AI is only just starting to get good.

00:53:07.300 It's not even good yet.

00:53:08.940 Wait till it gets good.

00:53:10.900 So my prediction is that AI will actually replace a lot of human contact.

00:53:17.440 I can't wait for mine, let me tell you.

00:53:19.360 I can't wait for my robot so I've got somebody to hang out with that doesn't give me any trouble.

00:53:27.300 It's like, oh, you're not going to gossip.

00:53:30.760 You're not going to say shit behind my back.

00:53:34.360 You're not going to change your mind.

00:53:36.360 You're not lying when you say you want to do something or don't want to do something.

00:53:41.400 It's going to be kind of refreshing.

00:53:43.120 And some people are talking about using AI to replace departed partners.

00:53:49.860 So there's going to be some number of young enough widows who don't remarry. 1.00

00:53:55.880 They're just going to replace their beloved with a robot. 0.56

00:53:59.940 So that's going to happen.

00:54:01.940 That will definitely happen.

00:54:03.960 And the sex will be even better than people. 0.87

00:54:06.680 If you haven't seen the Bri AI sex model,

00:54:13.120 he's combined AI with a sex toy.

00:54:16.960 I won't be more specific than that.

00:54:19.780 But if your AI can talk to you

00:54:21.840 and the sex toy part feels as good or better than a human would feel,

00:54:27.240 you're going to feel like you have a human relationship.

00:54:31.220 And it will activate your oxytocin and all your good chemicals.

00:54:36.900 So yeah, it's a thing.

00:54:38.300 It's a big thing.

00:54:39.660 And it's going to dominate civilization within a year.

00:54:43.120 Within a year, people will be just fully into their computer friends.

00:54:49.100 All right.

00:54:49.980 Now let me, if anybody joined late, here's what I think about the economy.

00:54:53.780 The economy is fine.

00:54:55.380 We have a debt problem.

00:54:58.400 But short of the debt problem, what's happening now is temporary, normal.

00:55:05.640 Stock markets go down 10% routinely.

00:55:09.640 And sometimes they go down 20% and then they come back.

00:55:13.320 So every single time our stock market has gone down, it's come back every single time.

00:55:21.300 So this probably won't be different.

00:55:23.860 There's nothing structurally different except the debt,

00:55:26.960 which is not what's driving the current problem.

00:55:29.160 So maybe we have to get on the other side of the Iran response.

00:55:37.000 Maybe we need a president who can drill more oil. 0.99

00:55:41.840 But I think we'd be fine.

00:55:43.820 We'll be fine.

00:55:44.880 Here's what I recommend.

00:55:45.920 Don't look at your portfolio.

00:55:47.000 So I'm not even going to open my app today.

00:55:52.900 I don't know what my net worth is.

00:55:55.480 Don't want to know.

00:55:57.180 Right.

00:55:57.760 I'll just wait.

00:55:59.420 Yeah.

00:55:59.680 The odds of it going up if we get, let's say, a Trump presidency, pretty good.

00:56:05.760 Pretty good.

00:56:10.480 Poon said what?

00:56:11.520 I don't want to see that.

00:56:21.360 If you, what?

00:56:24.320 All right.

00:56:24.840 I was looking for a comment, but it went by too fast.

00:56:28.740 All right, everybody.

00:56:32.680 Don't panic.

00:56:34.140 You'll be fine.

00:56:35.840 But it's going to say, but the news likes to scare you.

00:56:38.760 So there'll be a lot of scare stories today.

00:56:41.520 And I don't know what else you would put your money in if you were afraid of the market.

00:56:48.720 You know, what I always say is if the entire market goes down and stays there, nothing's

00:56:54.520 worth anything.

00:56:55.740 It's not like your real estate isn't going to be worth anything if the stock market goes

00:57:00.460 to zero.

00:57:02.900 Anyway, so I'm just going to keep my money where it is.

00:57:06.040 Not going to do anything differently.

00:57:07.440 And I will talk to you tomorrow for everybody else.

00:57:12.200 And I'm going to see if I can go private with just the local subscribers.

00:57:15.820 And I will say thank you to everybody on X and YouTube and Rumble.

00:57:23.880 And if this works, I'll be talking to the local supporters separately.

00:57:29.220 Thank you.

00:57:29.360 Thank you.

00:57:29.560 Bye.

00:57:29.940 Bye.

00:57:30.240 Bye.

00:57:30.820 Bye.

00:57:31.080 Bye.

00:57:32.260 Bye.

00:57:35.380 Bye.

00:57:43.320 Bye.

00:57:46.100 Bye.

00:57:47.500 Bye.

00:57:48.820 Bye.

00:57:50.380 Bye.

00:57:52.180 Bye.

00:57:52.880 Bye.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - August 05, 2024

Episode 2557 CWSA 08⧸05⧸24

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