Episode 2568 CWSA 08⧸16⧸24
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 18 minutes
Words per Minute
151.22623
Summary
In this episode of the podcast, I talk about the science that's exciting, and the politics that's not so exciting, like a famous scientific experiment, climate change, AI, and more. I don't know if I'll be alive when this happens, but I'll bet my life on it.
Transcript
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Now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine of the day, the thing that makes everything
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It's called the simultaneous sip, and it happens now.
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All right, well, let me jump into the science that's exciting, and we'll talk about all
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Do you know that famous experiment where they take two little toddlers, and they put a marshmallow
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in front of them, and then they would leave the room after telling them, whatever you
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do, don't eat the marshmallow, the delicious marshmallow.
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And then they would see that some kids could do what they were told and avoid the marshmallow.
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But other kids would look around, and they'd say, nobody's looking, and they'd grab the
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Now the science told us that that was an indication that one of those children was genetically defective.
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But the idea is that some people don't have good emotional control, emotional intelligence.
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In other words, they can't put off pleasure for later.
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And so they said, these people will not do well in life.
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But once you control for all the variables, it turns out you can't really see any difference.
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This is one of the most famous experiments in all of social science.
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Now, here's what I would have told you if you had asked me.
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Suppose you wanted to, you know, save all that time and money and incorrect science, and you
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just came to me and you said, you know, we did this experiment.
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Sometimes the kid will take the marshmallow and sometimes they won't.
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I would have picked the kid who took the marshmallow.
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Because the kid who took the marshmallow correctly saw the risk benefit.
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Do you think the kid was going to be punished reading marshmallow?
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No, the kid who takes the marshmallow gets the marshmallow and no punishment.
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And for how many decades, fucking idiot scientists telling us that the guy who doesn't take the
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Do you think Trump was the toddler who took the marshmallow or the one who left it there
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No, Trump took the marshmallow and he's the president of the, or well, he was, he might
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be again, president of the biggest country in the world, or most powerful, I guess.
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You know, it's funny, once this is debunked, it becomes so obvious why it wasn't true.
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You want the risk taker, but also the one who took the correct risk.
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There was not one toddler who was ever punished for taking a marshmallow.
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The toddlers who knew that and took the marshmallow, they're the ones I want to work for.
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I mean, those are your Elon Musks and you're the people who make the world a better place.
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There's a, the Guardian's running an article talking about Jonathan Watts.
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He's in the global environment editor and he's talking about how the climate models are having
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a, not a small problem with predicting the climate.
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And the problem is that they don't predict the warming.
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So apparently we had a few extra warm years, last few years, but the models don't predict
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So would it be legitimate to say that the models can't predict at all?
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If they can't predict warming, you know, in other words, it warmed in those particular
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So anyway, whenever you've got this many variables, it's not really possible to have a, any kind
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This prediction, I'd say, oh yeah, I would totally bet my life on it.
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I don't know if I'll be alive when it happens, but someday we will know the climate models
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And we have, when you reach a certain number of variables, nothing predicts.
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It's built into the nature of, you know, the nature of the universe.
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And if you can't know them exactly, and you never can, a few iterations later, the whole
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So, the fact that that's not 100% obvious to everybody who's looking at it and everybody's
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The marshmallow test was somewhat obviously bullshit.
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And now that it's been debunked, you go, oh, I guess I didn't see that coming.
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And, well, if you don't see the climate model being debunked in the future, you can't see
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You know, are there some of you who just can't imagine that?
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No, it's 100% certain that they will be debunked someday.
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I hope it's in my lifetime just so I can enjoy the show.
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Which, by the way, doesn't mean that the climate is not warming.
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And it doesn't mean that we should not worry about it.
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I'm just saying that the models are ridiculous.
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Likewise, I did see a chart that showed that the CO2 went down quite a bit during the pandemic,
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So, is there some kind of weird lag between CO2 and temperature that I'm not aware of?
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Here's another scientific hypothesis that's against the mainstream.
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I'm not sure I would put a high confidence in this.
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What I like about it is that it's not a mainstream opinion.
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So, this is not me trying to convince you this opinion is true.
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And he's claiming that ADHD is not a disorder, it's a phenotype.
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It means you have OG genetics, that people with ADHD were the elite hunters and gatherers.
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And that the ADHD people are not broken, they're just being forced to live in a society where ADHD doesn't have its benefits like it would if you were a hunter or a gatherer.
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Now, the thinking is that if you took those people outdoors and their job was to notice danger and notice opportunities and always be looking around their environment to make sure they're safe, that the ADHD would have some benefit.
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And that you'd need those people to go out and do the dangerous, unexpected things that other people weren't doing.
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Now, I'm not sure if I completely buy that because I think there might be some modern things that are exacerbating it.
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You know, like all of our attention spans are going down.
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I have a major problem with attention span because there's just so many things going on.
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So the fact that there are so many things going on and that when I'm falling off to sleep, there are 10,000 things in my head, that's got to be different than how it was in caveman days.
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So I'm not 100% on board with this, but I love the, here's what I like about it.
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I think I like it philosophically more than I like it scientifically.
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Philosophically, I like having the following bias.
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Now, that's a really powerful idea and it doesn't feel like it until you think it through.
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In our current world, we say, if you're black, you're one of the black people.
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So we got to treat you like one of the black people.
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If you're a woman, well, you're one of the women.
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And then we argue about who's a woman and we argue about who's black.
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Every one of these fights is completely unproductive, illogical, and off point.
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Treating everybody like there's no other person like them.
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If I meet an ADHD person, I don't say, this person's broken.
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And the very next person I meet, whether or not they have ADHD, is going to be completely
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different from that guy and me and everybody else.
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And that is the most, by far, the most useful filter you can put out in the world.
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If somebody comes to me and says, I'm black, so you have to help me, I say, fuck you.
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Everybody's got problems and yours are not special or magical.
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And there's no reason whatsoever I should help you versus the next 10 people who come up and
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Well, the history of the average of the people, to which I say, I don't care.
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They all came out of some history that wasn't so good for a variety of reasons.
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So, no, I don't give a fuck about your general generic average problems.
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But if you come to me as an individual who is different from every other individual,
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maybe part of that difference is that you're black and you're this and that and that, but
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There's not one person who's like one other person.
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So if that one person says, I'm an individual and I think maybe you have some advice for me
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or maybe you could connect me with somebody that would help me get what I want.
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And if it's something like, you know, a good life and a good job or something like that,
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I wouldn't help if you're making some kind of average general racial comment.
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But if you come to me as an individual, sure, if it makes sense.
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If I've got something you need as an individual, I'm all in.
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So you go from a situation where people are resistant to helping you because you've created
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this artificial fight of your group against my group.
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But as soon as you come to me as an individual, all of that goes away.
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What you're asking for would take a little work, but not much.
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So by far, the most important filter we need is to get back to we're all different.
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The reason that we're not forming families and having children as much is economics are
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And there's not enough meaning in it as there used to be.
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And, you know, you'd build your whole life around it.
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And divorce was difficult and all those things.
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But I do think that having to work all day kind of works against the whole family thing.
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What happens when the robots are doing all the hard work and you don't have to have a
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great job or even a job at all, maybe, in order to have a good life?
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Because the robots are making the food, so it's cheap.
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The robots are making the energy, so it's cheap.
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You've got your fusion and your nuclear power, so it's cheap.
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And then suddenly, basically, everybody could have UBI and there's still plenty to go around.
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Well, what I think happens is that people will have no meaning in life if they don't have
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I can't even imagine what my life would be like if I didn't have the structure of having,
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you know, we're not having to always, but going to work.
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Part of the reason I don't retire when I'm clearly at retirement age is that I like structure.
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If I can do something that any of you at the end of the day say, you know, that's a new
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If I introduce a new idea or a new filter on how to see something or a new way to analyze
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something and it affects some of you, I think, good, there we go.
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There's a little positivity I put into the world and I have meaning.
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But suppose you took all that away from me and I didn't have a job and I didn't need a
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job and if I worked a job, nobody would care because the robots could do it better anyway.
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Well, I think I would have a natural search for meaning and I think I'd say, you know
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what, why don't I build a little world where I can build some kids?
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You know, I'll be in a relationship, I'll make some kids and every day I'll wake up and
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So I've got a feeling that one of the unpredictable effects of a robot AI driven world, which we're
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going to have and fairly quickly, is that it might make having a family easier.
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So if anybody is a pessimist here and you're saying, no, it could go the other way, totally.
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It might, but I would say it's unpredictable and our search for meaning might drive us into
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family structures just for meaning, just so that when you died, you were part of something
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If the robots are doing it all, you don't even need to join an organization.
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Basically, you don't need to do much of anything.
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I'm not even sure if politics will still be a thing in 10 years.
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Why would politics not even be a thing in 10 years?
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Because if AI starts telling us what makes sense and what doesn't make sense, what are
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In our current world, we just use propaganda and brainwashing and nothing useful.
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But suppose AI starts saying things like, price gaps have failed 100% of the time.
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By the way, do you know what happens if you ask chat GPT if price gaps are good for society?
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It'll tell you something that Democrats don't like.
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It'll tell you that economists say that price gaps fail, and it will give you historical
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And then you ask it, but what's the counterpoint?
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It'll say, well, there's this economist who says this or that.
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And then you ask it, all right, is that a well-regarded opinion?
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No, there are other opinions, but they're not regarded as serious, basically.
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So this whole price gap thing has exactly one right answer.
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And I've teased before that you won't see any economists go on MSNBC or CNN for maybe the
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You might not see another economist on television, except on Fox News, for the rest of the cycle.
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And the reason is that the price gap is to have zero support among anybody who knows anything
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Yeah, the only one who tried to make an argument was like a fringe, radical economist, but nobody
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There would be no point in having a Democrat or a Republican.
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The AI would just tell you what works and what doesn't.
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A lot of things could be different in 10 years.
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Anyway, Secret Service has a new plan to let Trump do outdoor rallies.
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They're going to put him in a bulletproof glass box.
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Because don't you have to protect against drones as well?
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I don't know what kind of glass shield they're going to use.
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But the glass shield obviously has to cover the entire front.
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We know from the assassination attempt that came from the side, they've got to cover the
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Because all it would take is a drone attack to drop something down his glass tube.
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And are you going to feel like he's there alive if he's in a glass box?
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If all of our outdoor rallies put the candidate in a glass box, what's to stop them from using
00:19:40.300
There's a product, an existing product, you could buy it now, where if you want to do a
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video call with somebody, they can stand in this big, like closet-sized, no, let's say
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And they will appear on the other side as if they're standing in front of you fully 3D.
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So if you could put somebody in a glass box and people are happy about it, because to me,
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that wouldn't feel like it's live, even though he was live.
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I mean, I wouldn't care if he were virtual reality at that point.
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You know, if he's interacting with the audience and you can see him, but he's behind glass.
00:20:23.060
Maybe the virtual reality outdoor event is coming.
00:20:31.300
Bank more encores when you switch to a Scotiabank banking package.
00:20:35.800
Learn more at scotiabank.com slash banking packages.
00:20:46.000
So Harrison Walsh got some criticism from the right that doesn't matter to anybody.
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That they did, instead of doing an interview, we're doing a press conference so that the press can ask them tough questions.
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They decided to do a sit-down interview with each other.
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So they filmed the two candidates just talking to each other and having a good time.
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Now, Republicans and the press said, oh, you're afraid of the press.
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And I'm sorry if you don't like this, but it's a really smart strategy.
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Try to think of anything good that comes out of talking to the press.
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When Trump talks to the press, if it's the unfriendly press, 100% of the time they take something out of context.
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When was the last time that you saw Trump's numbers went up because he talked to the press?
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Have you ever seen Trump talk to the press and, wow, look at his numbers, because he said that good thing that everybody liked?
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But I've certainly seen bad stories come out of it that live forever.
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That, in fact, the fine people hoax, that came out of a press event, didn't it?
00:22:14.080
But didn't his taken out of context thing come from a press event?
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They were there, and then they said, you said what you didn't say, and then it turned into hoax.
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So everything bad that's ever happened to Trump is because he talked to the press.
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Now, at some point, you know, in 2016, he had to do it because he was an unknown, and we need to know who he was.
00:22:43.520
But now that we know exactly who Trump is, I don't know if talking to the press makes any sense.
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I think that the new model will be not talking to the press because it worked for Biden.
00:22:57.280
And when Biden talked to the press, was it ever good?
00:23:00.960
Not a single time was Biden talking to the press turned into a positive thing.
00:23:06.760
So I think candidates are just going to stop doing it if they're well-known.
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If they're not well-known, they're going to have to go through a certain amount of pain to get some attention.
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But if they're well-known like both of these candidates, why would they ever talk to the press?
00:23:21.000
They can just put out their message and make it cleaner.
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I've got a clever point coming up, but it needs a little more introduction to get to it.
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I think that both candidates should be talking to voters.
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And I'll keep saying this until I sell it, because I think it's going to happen.
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Give me, you tell me which of these would tell you something useful.
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Any reporter who is going to be biased one way or the other talking to any candidate.
00:24:06.840
Now compare that to either of the candidates sitting down with somebody from the other party.
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Somebody who's definitely planning to vote for the other candidate.
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And maybe more than one, and just talking to them for an hour to find out what they think and let the candidate make their best case one-to-one, person-to-person.
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Because that would be fascinating and unpredictable.
00:24:38.200
And I also think that if you picked your citizens right and you didn't get activists, you would get people who actually want to know what's real.
00:24:47.060
Do you think that the reporters want to know what's real?
00:24:57.240
But if you just got some citizens and say, all right, have lunch with Kamala Harris.
00:25:02.020
And tell her what you think from the other team.
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Because the screen between the candidate and the voters is way too thick.
00:25:17.020
They're seeing them through the filter of the news.
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And the news is completely illegitimate in this context.
00:25:26.840
And I think Trump would have a tremendous advantage in this.
00:25:34.480
And that's going to be an easier sell than let's go communist.
00:25:44.140
Think of the hardest thing that a Democrat could ask Trump about.
00:25:48.560
You can always think of a reasonable answer that if you were there, you could even give it yourself.
00:25:55.500
You know, like, you know, abortion would be the tough one.
00:25:58.160
And then Trump says, well, you don't want me to be making decisions about your body, do you?
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So all you have to do is convince other women, and you can have abortion any way you want.
00:26:16.940
Now, that would be an absolute kill shot to the accusations about Trump's going to stop abortion.
00:26:26.500
But you would never be able to do that with the press.
00:26:34.020
Well, they might try, but, but, but, you're in favor of a national ban on abortion.
00:26:54.020
And if women agree with you, you can have any law you want.
00:26:59.500
Now, that is a strong, strong answer to the biggest complaint.
00:27:07.200
Let's say you had some well-informed Republicans having lunch with Kamala Harris.
00:27:12.120
And she'd say, I'm going to bring your inflation down by capping prices on food.
00:27:17.840
And suppose you're a Republican and you're well-informed and you say, food?
00:27:21.780
Food only has the narrowest profit margin of every industry.
00:27:30.900
Now, if you're talking pharma, you might have big margins.
00:27:34.400
And, you know, in tech, there might be big margins for some things.
00:27:38.100
But in food, it's the smallest margins of any industry.
00:27:44.560
Is there any industry with a smaller margin, profit margin, than food?
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The only reason they can make any money is that people are eating food every day.
00:27:56.000
So if somebody sitting at lunch said to Kamala Harris, every time price caps have tried, they just created shortages.
00:28:08.080
Can you think of any case where it ever worked?
00:28:10.480
Now, what reporter is going to ask Kamala Harris that question?
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Can you give me any example where price caps have ever worked?
00:28:20.420
And did you know that food has the smallest margin of profit of any industry ever?
00:28:32.240
Do you know why a citizen would ask those questions?
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Because those are the normal, most obvious questions.
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Citizens will ask the most normal, obvious questions.
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They'll ask the one that could get them the gotcha.
00:28:48.680
You know, what do you think about, how do you define a woman?
00:28:56.720
Do you care about how Kamala Harris defines a woman?
00:28:59.180
You know, I get that it has real impact in the real world, but it's not your top 10 problems.
00:29:06.160
So no, you need voters to talk to candidates, nothing in between.
00:29:14.820
Politico says that Harris has a, she's rolling out her plan to fight inflation.
00:29:19.900
That is bullshit and propaganda and brainwashing.
00:29:23.900
She has not rolled down a plan to fight inflation.
00:29:33.920
You know, they can argue it's going to lower your prices, but if you don't do something about the money supply and other things that are driving inflation, that ain't it.
00:29:43.320
But Politico carries her water and calls it a plan to fight inflation.
00:29:49.960
So let's talk about some of the economic ideas of Kamala Harris.
00:30:00.300
So in terms of persuasion and running a campaign, this is pretty good stuff.
00:30:07.240
So don't, don't poo poo it because you think, you know, it's, it's inaccurate.
00:30:14.540
It might be inaccurate and a bad idea, but it's pretty sellable.
00:30:19.100
So persuasion wise, they've got a good bite on this economic thing.
00:30:27.640
So Biden administration, so Kamala Harris would presumably get some, you know, credit for this as well.
00:30:36.360
They've negotiated the price down quite a bit, they say, on 10 different drugs.
00:30:42.040
So they let the Medicare, Medicare program negotiated lower prices.
00:30:54.880
Let's say there were big pharma who is charging too much.
00:30:59.360
And then the government negotiated the prices down, you know, like an average of more than 50%.
00:31:07.340
You're really going to feel that in your pocket, right?
00:31:17.480
Is my insurance going to go down if my healthcare provider pays less for those drugs?
00:31:22.140
No, no, that's just free money to the insurance company.
00:31:30.000
Because she hasn't told the insurance company to lower the prices.
00:31:33.320
And the insurance company is buying the drug, not me.
00:31:35.980
I'm just paying some copay that would be the same no matter what I paid.
00:31:40.640
Now, there'll be a little bit of bleed through.
00:31:42.600
And presumably, your insurance company would at least have the option of lowering the price
00:31:51.440
So you can imagine that it could work through the system a little bit.
00:31:54.860
But in the short run, consumers weren't buying these expensive drugs.
00:32:02.800
And they're still going to go without if it's only 50% less cost, right?
00:32:06.600
So you either have insurance that's paying for it, or you're probably not getting it at all
00:32:14.640
Anyway, we also don't know exactly how much they reduce the prices
00:32:19.300
because when they talk about the percentage decrease,
00:32:22.440
they admit in the stories that they don't know what they're decreased from.
00:32:27.880
Because apparently the list price is not necessarily what anybody's paying,
00:32:35.020
So in other words, the Biden administration is claiming specific price decreases
00:32:41.240
without telling you what level they were before they were decreased.
00:32:46.900
So it's a lie because they're not always paying full price already.
00:32:52.560
Now, I think it is very true that the total amount that would be paid,
00:32:58.720
But the actual number is kind of gamed a little bit
00:33:02.540
because they don't know what it's coming down from.
00:33:04.320
But it's almost certainly coming down from something.
00:33:12.780
So after this long story about how the drug companies argued like crazy
00:33:23.880
And then they were asked about what would happen to their stock prices.
00:33:27.760
And here's what the experts said when these 10 drug companies
00:33:34.860
They said it wouldn't really affect their stock price.
00:33:42.900
How could their products be, the price be cut in half by somebody externally,
00:33:48.040
the government, and yet it doesn't affect their stock price?
00:33:55.400
That can't not affect your stock price unless you're such a big company
00:33:59.660
that that one little drug didn't make much difference.
00:34:04.720
Now, the other thing that I assume the government is not including
00:34:10.860
So if some companies spend a billion dollars to develop a drug
00:34:19.040
but they're going to sell it for like $100 a go,
00:34:23.600
it's because they're getting back their billion dollars.
00:34:28.060
It's not because they're making a killer amount on the per drug.
00:34:34.780
They're just trying to pay back what they put into it.
00:34:40.340
can you please explain to us how much you invested
00:34:43.480
and then we'll look at your return on investment
00:34:46.460
and if it's outrageous, then we're going to ask you to lower it.
00:34:53.880
As soon as you introduce that kind of madness into a system,
00:35:01.680
because presumably there'll be companies that spend a billion dollars,
00:35:06.380
the government said you had to cut the price by 50%
00:35:09.080
and they say, we really can't get our billion dollars back
00:35:13.400
because this will be off a patent before we get our billion back.
00:35:21.600
Not if they think the government's going to set their prices.
00:35:24.040
You wouldn't make the next drug if you thought the government
00:35:31.160
because you'll never know if you'll get your billion back.
00:35:34.460
I doubt the government asked them about their ROI
00:35:42.820
So everything about this is a distortion of the free market
00:35:46.780
but in the short run, it's going to sell really well
00:35:50.200
because consumers are just going to say, you lowered my cost?
00:35:58.080
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Harris also wants to give or extend child credits.
00:37:06.340
and make it up to $6,000 if you've got a new kid.
00:37:24.540
meaning they don't tell you what the cost of it is.
00:37:44.160
of young people who think they might have kids.
00:37:48.840
And then she wants to boost a new home building.
00:37:59.140
to help local governments develop innovative solutions
00:38:13.420
So basically, she'd be paying local governments
00:38:20.540
Do you know what the problem with this plan is?
00:38:36.000
or whatever their share is and build something.
00:38:39.420
I think they just give it to their contractor friends
00:39:02.740
Local government should have no decision-making
00:39:17.760
Because that's where all the corruption happens.