Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2574 CWSA 08⧸22⧸24

00:00:00.000 The thing that makes everything better, it's called the Simultaneous Sip, and it happens now.

00:00:06.060 Go.

00:00:10.580 Oh, that's good stuff.

00:00:17.860 Well, let's talk about some fun science-y updates, and then politics.

00:00:24.520 Politics.

00:00:25.940 We'll get to it.

00:00:26.680 So there's some research published in the Science Advances saying that the simpler your headline, the more clicks you get.

00:00:37.860 That's right.

00:00:38.740 If people reading the news see your headline and they understand what all the words mean, they're more likely to click it.

00:00:46.220 If they don't understand what you're trying to say in the headline or it's a little too clever, they won't click it because why would they?

00:00:52.440 They don't even know what it's about.

00:00:53.740 Now, who could have told you that without the research?

00:00:59.840 Who could have told you that if you understand what the topic is of the story, you're more likely to click it versus not knowing what the story is about because they use big, confusing words?

00:01:13.520 Oh, they could have asked me.

00:01:15.020 They could have saved some money. 0.97

00:01:17.820 Scott, we're thinking of doing this study to see if dumbass, big, frickin' academic-looking titles get as many clicks as clear, fun, short ones. 0.97

00:01:28.800 And I would have said, whoa, good thing you asked me. 0.98

00:01:31.860 Save your money.

00:01:33.260 Those clear, short ones are going to get more interest.

00:01:35.580 Now, here's the fun part. 0.92

00:01:40.200 How many of you remember back in 2015 and 2016 when Donald Trump was considered the dumbest person in all of public life because when he talked, he talked like he had a sixth-grade vocabulary? 0.96

00:01:57.520 I mean, my goodness, how could he possibly be president with a sixth-grade vocabulary? 0.94

00:02:05.300 He's always using simple words.

00:02:07.140 And what's wrong with that guy, huh?

00:02:09.920 And then I told you, that's perfect.

00:02:14.900 The thing they're criticizing is the best communication style of all time, according to every study and every observable experience.

00:02:27.820 When was the last time you heard the media criticize Trump for his simplistic communication style?

00:02:37.320 I bet you didn't realize it completely disappeared, did it?

00:02:42.140 Well, honestly, it's been years.

00:02:43.780 I think it's been years since they brought that, oh, he uses simple vocabulary.

00:02:49.700 Do you know why?

00:02:52.140 Because at this point, everybody figured out that was the better way to communicate because the world is not as smart as writers and people who make headlines.

00:03:01.440 The people who make headlines went to college, and the college told them to use big words, and so they do, to impress their editors and their friends.

00:03:07.920 And then the people who read it, who necessarily maybe didn't go to such a good college, they look at it and say, I don't know what those words mean.

00:03:15.200 I think I'll click on something else.

00:03:17.620 So I really could have helped you there.

00:03:19.160 But once you understand that Trump is arguably the best public communicator of all time, even with his flaws, nobody's ever been more persuasive or more clear about what they want than he has.

00:03:35.160 So shorter is better.

00:03:39.160 There's a medical study saying that it's published in the JMA, J-A-M-A psychiatry publication.

00:03:49.220 Anyway, shows that kids who had persistent inflammation as kids, body inflammation, were far more likely to develop serious mental health disorders, including psychosis and depression.

00:04:02.240 Now, to their credit, the article about it says very clearly that they have not established that the inflammation causes the other problems.

00:04:15.200 It could be either related or associated.

00:04:18.660 So the first thing I'll say is congratulations for clearly writing about science in a way that makes sense.

00:04:25.060 But at what point in the article did they tell you that it wasn't necessarily causation?

00:04:32.860 Was it up at the top?

00:04:34.780 Was the first sentence?

00:04:37.180 We don't know if this is causation, but there's a great correlation between.

00:04:43.120 Do you think it did that?

00:04:45.160 No, it did not.

00:04:46.360 No.

00:04:46.800 You had to read a long time before they confessed, you know, we don't know if the inflammation causes the problems.

00:04:53.240 It could be just correlation.

00:04:56.240 So I'm only going to give them partial credit because the reason that you would click it and read it is that you thought that they had established some causation.

00:05:05.660 And if you knew that they did not establish any causation because they don't have the data to do that yet, maybe you would have read it differently or not read it.

00:05:17.040 But here's my hypothesis that I've been working on for a long time.

00:05:21.780 The other day, I had a very bad mental attitude.

00:05:28.180 I woke up just feeling this sense of dread and doom that wasn't really connected to anything happening in the world that was different than the day before when I felt fine.

00:05:39.660 You know, surely there are problems in the world, but why did I feel fine yesterday?

00:05:43.940 And then I wake up one day and then I feel like dread and doom.

00:05:48.520 You know what the answer is?

00:05:50.060 It's how my body felt.

00:05:52.180 When my body feels suboptimal, my brain follows along. 1.00

00:05:58.160 If you're still under the model that your brain and your body are two different functions, you're going to be fucked. 0.99

00:06:06.900 Your odds of happiness are practically zero. 1.00

00:06:10.900 Let me say that again.

00:06:11.940 If you think that your brain and your, well, let's put it another way.

00:06:16.020 If you think that your body is not a component of your mind and that it's only that little brain thing that's inside your skull that's part of your mind, oh, you're not going to succeed at anything.

00:06:29.020 You have to get rid of that.

00:06:31.380 Your body is your brain.

00:06:33.960 Here's what I mean.

00:06:35.300 How did I, how did I, how did I solve the problem that I, I felt a sense of doom and dread and, you know, I would have even called it like a mild depression.

00:06:44.860 It was because my body didn't feel good.

00:06:47.040 I didn't have enough exercise.

00:06:48.800 I, I had some inflammation maybe.

00:06:51.800 So I basically take a, you know, a, uh, what do you call it?

00:06:57.100 Uh, Epsom salt hot bath and my inflammation goes away and I eat some food I like and I get some sleep and all the doom went away.

00:07:07.080 So my brain problem was just my body.

00:07:11.940 So as soon as you realize that your brain is your body and that imagining they're two separate systems gets you all the wrong answers.

00:07:20.840 Your body is your brain.

00:07:23.180 I'm depressed.

00:07:24.300 What am I going to do about it?

00:07:25.400 Do some brain stuff?

00:07:26.840 No, do something with your body.

00:07:28.880 Get outside, get some sun, get some vitamin D, work on your inflammation if you, if you have a problem.

00:07:34.740 So that, that's my hypothesis based on my observation of my own life is that whenever my body hurts, my brain is in a bad place.

00:07:42.920 Whenever my body feels extraordinary, my brain is fine.

00:07:47.220 No problems at all.

00:07:50.880 Anyway, it's a good thing that climate models are dependable.

00:07:56.300 Oh, well, there's a new story that, uh, two prominent and, uh, very experienced climate scientists.

00:08:04.740 You've probably heard of them before.

00:08:06.220 They're sort of the contrarians in that, in that space.

00:08:10.000 Richard Lindzen, I've talked about him before.

00:08:13.060 And, uh, William Happer.

00:08:15.340 Now they're both very highly qualified, um, professionals in science.

00:08:21.020 And specifically spent a lot of time in the global climate change stuff.

00:08:27.000 Here's what they say.

00:08:28.080 Apparently, their claim is the following.

00:08:34.520 That if you add some CO2 to the air, it might warm the environment.

00:08:40.700 Or, or does, actually.

00:08:42.140 So they, they would agree that if you add CO2, human produced CO2 to the air, uh, and there's not much there already.

00:08:49.360 Maybe that as you're adding a little bit to the air, it will cause some warming.

00:08:55.460 But here's the surprising part.

00:08:58.280 Their claim is that when you reach a certain level, which we have already reached, that the science is very clear that the CO2 will stop having that same warming property.

00:09:11.480 In other words, we've already reached peak CO2 warming potential.

00:09:18.320 Adding more won't make any difference at all.

00:09:21.260 So, uh, their claim is, let's see if I can get it in their words, that, uh, the physics of carbon dioxide is that CO2's ability to warm the planet is determined by its ability to absorb heat.

00:09:35.540 So, if it doesn't absorb heat, it doesn't warm the planet, but its ability to absorb heat, this is the CO2, decreases rapidly as CO2 concentration increases.

00:09:50.980 So, it's basically the opposite of all of climate change.

00:09:55.260 That it does, it does correlate with an increase in temperature at lower rates, but when you reach about where we are now, it should plateau.

00:10:03.920 So, they're saying, basically, it's not going to add any warming, because it, it, it can't.

00:10:10.240 As soon as you have a, enough concentration of CO2, which is where we're at, you could add more, but it won't get any warmer.

00:10:19.360 Now, do all scientists agree?

00:10:22.380 Of course not.

00:10:23.940 But, these are two very qualified, well-known, you know, even I know these names.

00:10:28.780 I'm not in the scientific field, but I'm well aware of these two, two scientists.

00:10:33.920 So, if they're right, then everything about the climate models is wrong.

00:10:39.340 And they've made a, they've made a fairly simple claim, one that you think could be tested.

00:10:47.540 Now, I'm not going to claim that these scientists are right and all the other scientists are wrong.

00:10:51.600 I'm going to claim that we don't know anything about anything.

00:10:55.280 Like, all of our sense of certainty is all artificial.

00:10:59.480 It's, you know, we imagine that the data is never going to change, and nobody's lying, and all the assumptions they made are true, and, and that it's actually possible to predict the future based on a multi-variable model.

00:11:12.300 Well, it's not, it's not, it's not, it's not even close to possible, and everybody in the field knows it, but you don't.

00:11:21.560 All right.

00:11:22.400 So, but if that were the only problem, that would be the end of the climate crisis completely.

00:11:27.200 And it does seem like a testable claim.

00:11:32.620 Could you not test in the laboratory that increasing CO2 in, let's say, just a laboratory setting, a totally controlled environment?

00:11:42.260 And I think they've done that, right?

00:11:43.980 I'm pretty sure I've seen tests where in the laboratory, if you introduce CO2 to a little closed environment, you can demonstrate that it causes warming.

00:11:53.640 So, if the claim is that at a certain saturation level, it stops doing that instead of infinitely creating more warming, that would be easy to test, wouldn't it?

00:12:06.680 Couldn't you just build a little terrarium or something that looks like Earth in a box or, you know, in a sealed, in a sealed environment, introduce some CO2, measure the temperature?

00:12:18.940 Sure enough, we added CO2 and the temperature went up.

00:12:22.000 Now keep adding it until you get to the concentration we're at today in the real world.

00:12:27.980 Does it keep going up as you keep adding to it?

00:12:32.080 Or does it plateau, as these two scientists would suggest?

00:12:37.320 So, the fascinating thing about this is it seems so testable.

00:12:42.620 Maybe we'll find out it's real.

00:12:44.260 Who knows?

00:12:44.920 I'm not going to tell you that, you know, these scientists are right and the others are wrong, because I have no way to know that.

00:12:50.000 But I love the fact that they're very qualified people and they've got a very different idea of what's going on.

00:12:57.320 But at least the rest of the climate model stuff is all pretty solid.

00:13:02.720 You know, it's only that one assumption that they have to test.

00:13:06.200 You know, the one assumption that drives everything, that's the only one they're questioning.

00:13:11.380 The one assumption that makes everything different.

00:13:15.040 But are there any other assumptions in these climate models, huh?

00:13:19.860 Well, it turns out that there have been some new studies of ice.

00:13:24.440 And they can melt the ice in a special scientific way and figure out what kind of gases and stuff are in the ice.

00:13:32.600 And then they can reconstruct things about the past to know if their climate models today, you know, would have worked in the past as well.

00:13:41.360 That's pretty important.

00:13:42.040 So what did they find out?

00:13:45.080 Well, it turns out that the amount of biomass that has burned over time has been decreasing as the population of the world increases.

00:13:56.920 So biomass burning means like a forest fire.

00:14:00.460 You know, just a natural fire outdoors is a biomass burning.

00:14:04.000 So the climate models assumed that the more people you added to the world, the more burning there would be.

00:14:13.040 I assume they mean because people would burn forests to plant farms.

00:14:17.480 People would burn wood to heat themselves.

00:14:20.900 People would, you know, people, humans would be burning a lot of stuff.

00:14:24.580 So the climate models assume more people equals more burning.

00:14:29.180 That's a basic part of the models.

00:14:32.820 But it turns out that when you look at the ice samples, the more humans there are, the less biomass there is that's burned.

00:14:41.980 It's opposite.

00:14:42.780 So one of the key assumptions that people equals more burning, and that's fed into the model, is opposite, according to these new studies.

00:14:54.840 Now, again, does it mean the new study is correct and all the things in the model are incorrect?

00:14:59.900 I don't know that.

00:15:02.760 I'm just saying that one part of science that should be taken as credibly as the rest, probably, is saying that they got that big variable opposite.

00:15:13.060 So suppose there were only two problems with the models that have lots of variables.

00:15:19.820 And suppose the only two problems were they got this biomass thing backwards, and they got the CO2 doesn't eat anything after it reaches a certain saturation.

00:15:30.860 What if they got those two things wrong?

00:15:33.200 Well, then the entire models are nothing. 0.99

00:15:36.280 Garbage. 1.00

00:15:36.800 Garbage. 0.99

00:15:37.760 Now, let me say something again that if you're not convinced yet, oh, I'm going to wear you down. 0.99

00:15:44.460 It goes like this.

00:15:46.160 There is no such thing as accurate data for anything that matters.

00:15:51.920 If it doesn't matter or it's something we all observe, like, yes, there's a hurricane.

00:15:56.640 Yes, the news says there's a hurricane.

00:15:58.660 Science says there's a hurricane.

00:16:00.540 Okay, the easy stuff, we all agree.

00:16:02.300 That's real.

00:16:02.900 But all this stuff that really has big dollars involved, it's never real.

00:16:09.780 You can't have data collection and big dollars involved at the same time.

00:16:15.560 But unfortunately, that's the only way anything happens.

00:16:18.620 Because the only people willing to spend all the money it would take to collect data on something as big as the climate would be people who have a lot of money involved.

00:16:26.520 So there isn't actually a system in place in the world to get accurate data about anything that matters.

00:16:36.400 Think about that.

00:16:37.900 It's not a set of accidents.

00:16:41.680 It's not like, well, we looked at this data and it turns out that somebody involved was gaming the system.

00:16:47.900 But then we looked at some other data, it turned out there was something wrong with that data too.

00:16:53.560 And you say to yourself, wow, I'm sure all the rest of the data in the world is good, but these two look like they were wrong.

00:17:02.060 No, there is no way that it's even possible for data to be correct about anything important.

00:17:11.320 Because the people presenting it have an interest and they're only going to show it to you if they can make that data look whatever it is that they need it to look.

00:17:21.920 So, no, there's no such thing as accurate data about anything that matters.

00:17:29.120 And don't be confused by the data on things that don't matter.

00:17:33.480 There's probably plenty of data on things that don't matter to anybody politically or monetarily.

00:17:38.040 But if it matters and there's money involved, it's never real.

00:17:42.460 It can't be.

00:17:44.000 Design is destiny.

00:17:46.200 The design of the system is the only people who collect the data are the people who have a lot of money involved in it being one way.

00:17:53.800 That's our system.

00:17:55.680 Suppose you designed that on paper and you presented it to somebody as a way to run the world.

00:18:01.480 Suppose nobody had ever collected any data for anything before.

00:18:04.520 And you said, you know what, if we started collecting data in this world and we applied some science, we'd be way ahead.

00:18:14.240 So they come up with the idea of collecting data and they say, all right, here's how we're going to do it.

00:18:18.300 It's going to be expensive to collect any data that really matters and is going to move the needle.

00:18:24.260 So who's going to be doing the collecting?

00:18:28.680 The government?

00:18:29.700 Oh, no, the government might be biased.

00:18:31.740 You know, it might be Democrats in office versus Republicans.

00:18:34.380 You can't really trust the government with data.

00:18:37.140 So then I'd say, wait, so you're saying that all information that comes from the government will be fake?

00:18:44.380 Oh, yes, of course it will.

00:18:45.800 Of course it will.

00:18:46.740 Because it's either Democrats in charge or Republicans in charge, and neither of them have an interest in telling you the truth.

00:18:54.020 Right?

00:18:54.940 They have a gigantic monetary and, you know, other career interests in telling you the truth they want you to hear.

00:19:04.860 Do you think we could see that effect in the real world if the government has an incentive to lie to you all the time?

00:19:10.940 Well, let's look at some data.

00:19:15.560 Have you heard about the jobs reports that are being revised by over 800,000 because they were all fake?

00:19:22.160 Turns out it's way worse than that because we might be looking at jobs that were created as fake jobs to get PPP money during the pandemic.

00:19:30.960 So there's some suggestion that there might be 5 million fake jobs because people pretended they had employees so they could get money from the government and pretend that they had companies.

00:19:44.740 So some people think that our jobs numbers are completely just ridiculous and just made up, and now they're being revised.

00:19:52.120 So that's exactly what you would expect to happen if, in fact, your design of how you collect data was wrong and delegated to the people who had the most interest in lying to you.

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00:21:06.800 Let's see, what else?

00:21:08.540 How about our numbers about crime?

00:21:11.920 Do you think our crime statistics that come from the government are pretty good?

00:21:15.480 Pretty accurate?

00:21:17.180 No, because some people stopped collecting crime and then they started just making stuff up.

00:21:23.720 And I think we're all aware at this point that the crime numbers are made up.

00:21:28.300 Would you agree?

00:21:29.880 And even when they're not made up, they put it in the wrong context, like comparing to the pandemic versus not the pandemic, which is no comparison at all.

00:21:38.100 So, we don't have jobs numbers that are real.

00:21:43.300 And we don't have crime numbers that are real.

00:21:46.760 And it's because the government is in charge of those numbers.

00:21:49.720 And there is no scenario in which the government wants you to have real numbers.

00:21:54.920 Every scenario, no matter who's in charge, they want it to look like it's good for their team.

00:22:00.540 Period.

00:22:00.960 So, if you were to ask private companies to get you information, let's say drug companies to do drug studies, what should you expect?

00:22:11.960 If you were going to design that system on paper, all right, the people who could make a billion dollars if the drug is safe are in charge of telling you that the data says it's safe.

00:22:22.980 What do you expect?

00:22:24.760 What do you expect?

00:22:26.840 Yeah.

00:22:27.200 The design of the system guarantees that all important data is fake.

00:22:32.180 We've designed the system.

00:22:34.940 You have to understand that it's a system design problem.

00:22:38.700 It's not a bunch of people who have made a mistake coincidentally in each of these important domains.

00:22:44.620 That's not what's going on.

00:22:46.540 There's no mistakes happening.

00:22:48.060 People have a great interest in making assumptions that will drive the numbers the way they want them to be driven.

00:22:58.360 And whoever collects numbers gets to make the assumptions.

00:23:01.140 Oh, these numbers are good enough.

00:23:02.560 They're in.

00:23:03.440 These numbers don't look dependable to me.

00:23:05.800 I'll leave these out.

00:23:07.440 That's how it works.

00:23:10.820 All right.

00:23:12.660 Let's see.

00:23:13.400 Female doctors, another study says female doctors have a far greater risk of taking their own life than even male doctors, but, you know, higher than other professions. 0.99

00:23:26.880 Now, when I used to be a banker, it was my job to make loans to doctors and dentists and professionals like that for a while.

00:23:35.660 That was my job.

00:23:36.380 And one of the risks of making loans to medical professionals, especially dentists, is that they had unusually high rates of taking their own lives.

00:23:47.260 Dentists in particular have, like, career-wise are right at the top of taking their own lives.

00:23:53.120 I'm not surprised that doctors may be a little higher and that female doctors are the highest. 1.00

00:23:57.960 And I have a hypothesis to add to this.

00:24:02.680 You know, the obvious things would be that being a doctor isn't as good as it used to be and, you know, you don't have the same prestige and, you know, the work is terrible.

00:24:12.680 And a lot of the time you're just doing work that's just busy work to make sure you stayed up all night.

00:24:18.300 Because for some reason, the medical field wants to torture you when you're a new doctor.

00:24:24.640 I've never understood that.

00:24:26.360 To make you stay up 21 hours and all that stuff.

00:24:29.220 But here's my hypothesis.

00:24:32.580 Since all of those things would be pretty common, male or female, I think it's access to pills.

00:24:39.560 If you were a doctor and you were deciding to end it all, wouldn't you do it with pills?

00:24:45.580 I would think so.

00:24:50.000 And if you had access to them because you could get all you wanted, I would think that would explain most of it, actually.

00:24:57.600 You know, it seems like there are a lot of people who probably think about doing something to themselves.

00:25:03.000 But it's sort of hard.

00:25:05.340 You know, you're not quite sure how to do it in a way that you'd be willing to do it.

00:25:09.080 But if your job was giving out pills and you could get all you wanted,

00:25:12.740 if you could have asked me, you didn't have to do the study.

00:25:18.100 Scott, do you think that the industry that can get all the tools of taking your own life very easily,

00:25:27.020 do you think they would have higher rates of doing it?

00:25:29.000 I'd say, yeah, probably.

00:25:31.400 If you can get exactly the tool and it's easier for you, sure.

00:25:34.340 Well, it looks like the headlines say that Andrew Tate has been detained again by the Romanian officials.

00:25:42.360 So he got arrested.

00:25:43.940 Do you know what is the weird part of this?

00:25:46.060 The headline says Andrew Tate detained again in Romania.

00:25:51.080 But you read it and it says, you know, his brother was picked up, too.

00:25:54.600 I feel sorry for Andrew Tate's brother, Tristan, because he's always the also guy.

00:26:03.620 Andrew Tate gets picked up by the Romanian cops.

00:26:07.740 And he's a brother, too.

00:26:10.840 So here's my question.

00:26:12.820 Since we don't know what those charges are and Tate says he doesn't know what the charges are based on what evidence,

00:26:19.300 he says there's no evidence.

00:26:20.440 I don't have an opinion about whether he did or didn't anything wrong.

00:26:25.560 I will state again that citizens, even a citizen of Romania, is innocent until proven guilty. 0.74

00:26:33.920 Based on our standards, you know, he hasn't been proven guilty.

00:26:37.540 So he's innocent until proven guilty in my personal standard of these things.

00:26:42.100 But here's a question.

00:26:44.080 Do you think he would have been picked up if there were not an American election coming?

00:26:50.440 I feel like he's one of those people who can move young votes, especially young males.

00:26:58.160 I think that maybe Romania was asked to pick him up by somebody associated with the United States,

00:27:04.560 because he's exactly the kind of person you want to take off the field

00:27:08.380 when, you know, people under 30 are looking to figure out who to vote for

00:27:16.180 after not thinking about it until the last minute.

00:27:18.640 He's exactly the kind of person they don't want talking for the next few months.

00:27:25.100 To me, this looks very suspicious.

00:27:28.100 The timing looks suspicious.

00:27:30.020 The lack of, you know, any obvious evidence that we can see, the public can see of guilt.

00:27:36.560 And again, I want to be very clear.

00:27:38.820 It's not my job to defend them from any charges.

00:27:42.060 I have no idea what they did or did not do.

00:27:45.800 I have no awareness of any of that.

00:27:49.080 I'm just saying that if you had asked me to guess, would they be picked up just about now?

00:27:56.540 I think I might have put a bet on it.

00:27:59.440 If you'd said, all right, take a bet.

00:28:01.240 Give me your bet.

00:28:03.980 Would you bet that the Tates would be re-arrested and maybe never charged, you know,

00:28:10.280 just taken off the field and taken off the social media before the American election?

00:28:16.040 Would you place a bet on that?

00:28:18.200 I think I would have.

00:28:19.280 I think I would have placed a bet on that, that they would be arrested again, only because

00:28:24.680 they're effective.

00:28:25.960 People listen to them.

00:28:26.960 They have a big platform.

00:28:28.860 And they're, you know, presumably they're going to be more pro-Trump than pro-Biden or pro-Kamala Harris.

00:28:39.020 Anyway, there's a report that the Chinese tech companies are hiring, quote, cheerleaders to

00:28:44.380 motivate the programmers.

00:28:45.400 Now, based on the photo, the cheerleaders would look like they would be heterosexual, attractive 1.00

00:28:51.440 young women whose job, they say, is to do stuff like buy breakfast for the programmers, have 1.00

00:28:57.180 conversations with them, and play ping pong.

00:29:00.240 Now, if that's true, America just has to give up and surrender because we can't compete with that.

00:29:09.180 No.

00:29:10.040 What if our programmers suddenly found it enjoyable to go to work?

00:29:13.640 Well, that would be pretty sexist.

00:29:16.960 Yeah.

00:29:17.700 This sounds so sexist.

00:29:19.780 It can never happen in the United States.

00:29:21.560 So we can never compete with this, these happy programmers.

00:29:26.040 But maybe American programmers work harder because they know they have to get rich if they want a girlfriend.

00:29:34.180 So that's plenty of incentive.

00:29:36.320 They probably have all the incentive they need right now.

00:29:39.540 All right.

00:29:39.900 So there's a report that Osama bin Laden once said, and it must be in a document somewhere that we've captured after bin Laden got taken down.

00:29:53.900 But apparently there's some document in which he was saying it would be okay for al-Qaeda to try to assassinate Obama during Obama's term.

00:30:05.600 But they wanted to make sure that they didn't assassinate Joe Biden, the vice president.

00:30:10.800 Do you know why bin Laden thought it would be acceptable and desirable to assassinate the president of the United States, but not the vice president?

00:30:22.080 Do you know what his reasoning is for that?

00:30:25.080 Well, allegedly, his reasoning is that Joe Biden was incompetent, and it would be really good luck for al-Qaeda if he ever became president of the United States, because he would destroy the United States with his own bumbling incompetence.

00:30:38.520 That was bin Laden.

00:30:42.940 Now, do you believe that?

00:30:45.860 I kind of believe it.

00:30:48.880 It's a little too on the nose, so maybe I'll put a little skepticism in there.

00:30:54.300 I think that would be more appropriate.

00:30:56.400 Yeah, I think I was falling into the trap of wanting to believe it because it was a good recreational story.

00:31:01.600 It's like, oh, that's a good, fun story.

00:31:03.600 But I don't really think bin Laden had that insight, actually.

00:31:08.340 The more I think about it, I'm going to call it false.

00:31:11.100 I think I'm going to call this one fake news.

00:31:13.880 You know, maybe there's some document, but who knows who made it.

00:31:18.000 Seems a little fake newsy.

00:31:20.160 I don't know.

00:31:21.180 Seems like Russian disinformation to me.

00:31:23.520 No, it doesn't.

00:31:24.240 But so I'm going to use the it's a little too close to exactly what some people would want to hear to make me believe it happened just that way.

00:31:32.740 Yeah.

00:31:34.340 But here's a weird thing.

00:31:36.660 Do you know if you took the name bin Laden and simply removed the letters N, L, and A, that all happened?

00:31:45.200 They all happened.

00:31:46.280 They're next to each other.

00:31:47.580 So if you take bin Laden and remove some of the letters N, L, and A, do you know what you have? 0.84

00:31:56.600 Biden.

00:31:57.820 You literally can't spell bin Laden without Biden.

00:32:00.840 I don't know if this simulation is telling us something, but there it is.

00:32:08.580 Anyway, there's a story that one of the officials in the government nuclear weapons departments is trying to make the nuclear weapons group way gayer.

00:32:26.000 So it's the National Nuclear Security Administration's special assistant named N, A, N, A, I, R.

00:32:40.200 Anyway, made it clear that she wants to get rid of all the white supremacy in the nuclear weapons group, get rid of the white supremacy in the nuclear field. 1.00

00:32:53.000 And she wants to, you know, gay up the nuclear weapons as part of the diversity, equity, and inclusion. 0.59

00:32:59.760 So there's actually somebody who's feeling that the important thing about nuclear war is to make sure that diverse people launch them so that when we all die in a giant nuclear fireball, we can say, 1.00

00:33:17.620 Ah, I'm melting, but at least diversity was achieved.

00:33:25.400 That's my impression of dying after a nuclear blast.

00:33:28.880 Probably not too on point.

00:33:30.920 Probably not. 0.98

00:33:32.060 Now, am I saying that I don't want any gay people working in nuclear weapons? 1.00

00:33:38.400 No, obviously, I'm not saying that. 0.81

00:33:40.940 Am I saying that it would be bad to have diversity?

00:33:44.420 No, I'm not saying that.

00:33:45.800 Am I saying that a DEI hire is necessarily incompetent?

00:33:50.340 No, I'm not saying that.

00:33:52.380 What I'm saying is if you design a system where one of the top priorities is not, oh, let's say, avoiding a nuclear war or winning one if you have to be in one.

00:34:05.060 If your top priority of any individual who's got power in that organization is to make sure you have more diversity,

00:34:11.540 you've designed a system for failure and almost guaranteed nuclear war.

00:34:17.180 If you said to me, what would be a good way to create a nuclear war, I'd say, well, stop hiring based strictly on merit and make sure you got a good diversity in there.

00:34:28.520 Again, no complaints about anybody's genes or gender preference or gender or any of that.

00:34:35.220 That has nothing to do with any of my points.

00:34:37.780 My point is that if you force a certain population, no matter who they are, and you force them into the city or into the system, you're going to get incompetence.

00:34:49.020 So there's somebody whose job is to inject incompetence into our nuclear operation. 0.99

00:34:57.760 You know, you'd think there'd be some limit to how stupid we could be, but apparently not. 1.00

00:35:04.240 There's no limit to how stupid we could be. 1.00

00:35:07.760 But we're very diverse. 1.00

00:35:10.120 What time is RFK Jr. going to make his announcement today?

00:35:12.720 So allegedly, and I'm not sure the reports are completely reliable, but allegedly RFK Jr.

00:35:21.020 is going to suspend his campaign and maybe even endorse Trump.

00:35:25.480 I don't feel that that's 100% certain.

00:35:30.240 I think there's a good chance of it.

00:35:32.640 You know, if I had to bet, I'd bet that it's going to happen.

00:35:35.920 And here's the amazing thing.

00:35:38.120 Like, how is that even possible?

00:35:42.260 There's somebody whose family and he were just lifetime Democrats.

00:35:47.240 How badly do you have to abuse somebody before a Kennedy will become potentially endorsing a Republican? 0.56

00:35:57.200 You've got to be really, really, really terrible people.

00:36:01.820 And I think RFK Jr. is just reacting to how he was being treated.

00:36:05.940 So I would also point out that if you gave a quiz to people who didn't know who the people involved were for this quiz,

00:36:16.380 you said, all right, here's a list of characteristics of JFK.

00:36:21.440 So President JFK, you know, what was he all about?

00:36:25.740 Just describe what he wanted and his policies.

00:36:29.000 And then do a description of Trump and what he wanted.

00:36:33.340 But you take out all the hyperbole so that you're just factually saying, JFK wanted this stuff.

00:36:40.400 Trump wants this stuff.

00:36:42.300 I think they would look kind of similar.

00:36:46.760 Don't you?

00:36:49.100 There wouldn't be that much difference between what JFK thought was a good idea and what Trump thinks is a good idea.

00:36:55.980 So it's not that big of a leap, weirdly, because the Democrats became, you know, wildly left progressive and crazy.

00:37:07.960 And Trump is, you know, obviously he's more Republican than Democrat.

00:37:14.120 But if you were to look at a historical model, Trump is pretty commonsensical.

00:37:20.260 So I don't even see Trump as being on the right.

00:37:24.440 I never have, really.

00:37:26.640 I mean, he has to fit somewhere because we like to put things in boxes.

00:37:30.060 So I get that he's in that box.

00:37:32.440 But I just see all of his policies as not having a right or left dimension to them.

00:37:38.280 Am I the only one?

00:37:39.400 I just don't see right or left in why he does, because he shows you his work.

00:37:46.760 He says, this works, this doesn't.

00:37:49.220 This makes sense, this doesn't.

00:37:50.960 And you can look at it yourself and you can say, OK, there's precedent for why this would work. 1.00

00:37:56.660 And there's no precedent for why this stupid idea would work. 0.99

00:38:01.380 He just seems like the common sense, obvious path kind of guy. 0.98

00:38:05.700 Anyway, so people are saying, would RFK Jr. join a Trump administration?

00:38:14.320 Trump has acted positively about it.

00:38:17.820 I don't know if RFK Jr. has ever answered it.

00:38:20.060 I think you don't answer those questions while you're running.

00:38:23.660 But I'm still fascinated by how many roles you could imagine RFK Jr. taking.

00:38:30.520 This is a real compliment to RFK Jr. because, you know, I always talk about talent stacks.

00:38:37.300 You want to get as many talents as you can so you're ready for anything.

00:38:41.080 So you could easily imagine RFK Jr. being head of the CIA to clean it up.

00:38:48.980 You could imagine him being head of the FDA.

00:38:51.060 You could imagine him being attorney general.

00:38:52.760 Maybe there's five more jobs that you can imagine him being top advisor.

00:39:01.240 But whatever he does, I would love to see him be in charge of food and medical drug testing.

00:39:10.600 So that we'd have some chance of getting at least a clearer picture of those things.

00:39:15.620 So anyway, I also wonder, has it ever been confirmed that RFK Jr. has testosterone supplements?

00:39:28.860 Has he ever talked about that?

00:39:30.740 I feel like I sort of maybe remember he mentioned it because his muscular development suggests that

00:39:37.700 he's doing something that's both legal and very effective for muscle development.

00:39:43.500 So do we know that he's had his testosterone boosted or is it just obvious?

00:39:50.100 I'm seeing some yeses.

00:39:51.920 But here's the interesting thing.

00:39:55.120 Do you think that he would consider citing or endorsing Republicans if he had not boosted his testosterone?

00:40:07.320 Think about it.

00:40:09.960 I think it's the defining factor.

00:40:14.500 And let me tie this into my next story, which is CNN and MSNBC covering the Democrat convention.

00:40:24.780 They were trying to sell the fact that Doug Emhoff and Tim Walz are the example of the new male role models.

00:40:35.500 And that they were different from, and that they were different from, and this is actually what the commentators were saying.

00:40:40.980 This is not me saying it.

00:40:42.380 It was different from the testosterone-filled, you know, macho Republican people.

00:40:50.160 And so both MSNBC and CNN's, the women, the female pundits and observers, were saying that the Democrats have this new model of male, optimal male behavior, which is supporting a woman being your boss. 0.93

00:41:06.420 And that if you could be more, let's say, less macho Hulk Hogan and less Dana White and more Doug Emhoff and more Tim Walz, that that's the model that the Democrats want to put forward as modern male leadership.

00:41:26.480 And then RFK Jr. comes along, he's just like bristling with muscles, and he's willing to skin a dead bear.

00:41:39.060 And he just doesn't, he just doesn't fit their model.

00:41:46.700 So I'm going to say again, do you think, no, I'm making an assumption here, that if we assume that he's at least friendly with the Trump campaign, do we think that he would have any chance of endorsing or working with Trump if he had not boosted his testosterone?

00:42:05.440 Which, if I haven't told you this before, your body and your brain are the same organ.

00:42:12.940 Your body is your brain.

00:42:14.940 If RFK Jr.'s body is rippling with a high level of testosterone, that's his brain.

00:42:22.120 And it would make him way less likely to be a far left lefty.

00:42:27.900 So don't rule out that this is entirely chemical.

00:42:32.020 I don't think it's about issues and facts, because the issues are all lies and the facts are all lies.

00:42:38.660 But you can see testosterone, and you could look at the people attending the DNC, and you don't see any.

00:42:47.400 It looks like all the testosterone went to another city that day.

00:42:53.240 Anyway, so we'll keep an eye out.

00:42:55.860 What's the time for the RFK Jr. announcement?

00:42:58.480 Does anybody know when that's slated to happen?

00:43:02.480 I haven't seen anything about that yet.

00:43:04.980 Anyway, we'll look for that.

00:43:06.580 This story is funny.

00:43:08.160 There's a story, I guess the government's probably saying this, that both Russia and Iran are, quote,

00:43:14.820 waging operations to influence the U.S. elections.

00:43:17.720 All right, so the idea is that professional trolls from Russia and from Iran are trying to spread disinformation or put their finger on the scales for our election.

00:43:34.420 Do you see anything about that story that is funny?

00:43:38.360 I do.

00:43:41.260 Everything about our election is disinformation.

00:43:44.000 How are they going to add any extra disinformation?

00:43:48.440 You're watching the DNC, and 100% of what every person said was a lie.

00:43:54.300 100%.

00:43:54.740 There wasn't, I don't think there was anything honest that came out of the entire thing so far.

00:44:00.500 The news is completely fake.

00:44:03.620 Our data is completely made up.

00:44:06.160 And the citizens don't even know the made up stuff.

00:44:09.300 If you stop them on the street, they barely know the name of the people running for president.

00:44:13.240 So, in this context, do you think that the Russian and Iranian trolls are going to make a difference?

00:44:22.860 Let me put this in context for you, okay?

00:44:25.660 Because remember that Russia had that troll farm in 2016, and I laughed when I saw their memes. 0.81

00:44:33.020 Like, these memes look like they were made in high school.

00:44:35.300 There's no way, no way they had any influence on the election.

00:44:40.340 All right, here's what I think.

00:44:41.740 Imagine the Grand Canyon.

00:44:45.080 All right, got that picture in your mind?

00:44:47.380 Gigantic canyon.

00:44:49.060 Now imagine if the entire canyon was filled with cow feces. 1.00

00:44:57.180 It was just full of cow crap. 0.99

00:45:00.100 Not just to the top, but like, you know, 100 feet above the top. 0.99

00:45:05.200 Every bit of the Grand Canyon, full of feces.

00:45:08.760 Now, now imagine a pigeon flies over the Grand Canyon that's overflowing with cow feces,

00:45:16.800 and the pigeon poops on top of it. 0.98

00:45:19.920 That's the, that's all of the Russian and Iranian trolls. 1.00

00:45:26.480 You put them all together, and they're one pigeon pooping on top of a gigantic canyon full of shit. 1.00

00:45:35.820 If you imagine that they could have any impact when everything's already alive, 1.00

00:45:45.380 100% of what's, what both sides are talking about is just bullshit. 0.94

00:45:49.860 It's just completely left-handed context stuff and things that aren't even true and lies and hoaxes. 0.93

00:45:56.720 There's no way that Russia or Iran could add anything to that mix that would make it worse than what it is without their help.

00:46:05.200 They can't make that worse.

00:46:07.160 In what way could you make that worse?

00:46:11.640 To me, that's just hilarious.

00:46:13.420 It's so, it's so ridiculously not a risk that I can't even believe we're talking about it.

00:46:19.300 I guess there's still an illusion that some of our information is real,

00:46:25.520 and that if they added their little, you know, pigeon poop of misinformation,

00:46:31.460 that suddenly our, our delicate balance of correct information would be sent off.

00:46:36.740 There's no correct information.

00:46:39.260 Good luck, birds.

00:46:40.360 There's a report in the Washington Free Beacon that some Soros-funded fake news network is operating in Nevada now.

00:46:51.420 Now, it's literally an entity that tries to look like a real news entity,

00:46:56.200 but their only purpose is fake news for the benefit of Democrats.

00:47:02.700 So you've got a Soros-funded entity that's literally doing fake news stuff,

00:47:08.720 and when I say fake news, I don't mean they're real news that says things are fake.

00:47:13.440 They're not even a real news entity.

00:47:15.060 They're just pretending to be one so they can do fake stuff.

00:47:18.960 Now, that's what, that's what's happening without Russia and Iran. 0.94

00:47:24.380 They can't compete with Soros.

00:47:26.940 He's already got the misinformation thing all wrapped up.

00:47:32.820 Well, but at least the government is forthcoming with information when citizens or Congress ask for it.

00:47:38.720 Oh, wait.

00:47:39.740 Also, the Washington Free Beacon is saying that Biden-Harris administration,

00:47:44.000 they're stonewalling Congress who is asking for information about the U.S. nonprofits

00:47:50.080 that may or may not have been behind bankrolling the pro-Hamas protesters.

00:47:55.080 And so, there's a House Ed and Oversight Committee.

00:48:02.280 They want to subpoena the information.

00:48:05.140 Apparently, the government has some kind of information.

00:48:07.580 They would say what kind of nonprofits were funding the protesters.

00:48:13.520 Hmm.

00:48:14.480 Wouldn't you like to know that?

00:48:16.520 Well, I would, but the government isn't going to tell it.

00:48:19.400 Do you know why?

00:48:21.080 Because it might be accurate information.

00:48:24.400 Have I ever mentioned to you

00:48:25.740 that if information matters, it's all fake?

00:48:32.380 Well, this might be a situation where they have some real information

00:48:35.500 and the Oversight Committee would like to see it

00:48:38.220 because it might really matter who is funding them.

00:48:41.560 And that will not be made available according to the current situation.

00:48:45.940 They're just going to ignore the request

00:48:47.960 because the last thing the government wants

00:48:51.120 is accurate information in the public.

00:48:57.520 All right.

00:48:58.420 There's a September interest rate cut that's likely,

00:49:02.700 say all the smart people.

00:49:04.760 How many of you could have predicted

00:49:06.640 that there would be an interest rate cut

00:49:08.360 in the few months before the election?

00:49:11.560 Well, maybe it's a coincidence.

00:49:14.940 Maybe the people who are supposedly independent

00:49:18.020 in this interest rate stuff,

00:49:21.080 maybe they're not so independent.

00:49:23.780 But I'm pretty sure that I could have predicted it.

00:49:27.400 So what does it mean that I could have predicted it?

00:49:30.240 If you had asked me six months ago,

00:49:32.280 Scott, do you think that the administration in charge

00:49:36.080 would be so lucky that the independent,

00:49:40.380 the independent, you know, the Fed,

00:49:43.360 would lower the interest rate

00:49:45.460 just to make everything look wonderful before election?

00:49:49.120 I would have said yes.

00:49:50.740 Now, it could be that that was just going to happen anyway

00:49:53.960 because that was a natural evolution of the economy.

00:49:56.340 But I'd like to point out I would have predicted it

00:50:01.160 for whatever that's worth.

00:50:05.620 Well, the DNC is rolling on.

00:50:08.440 I have a real trouble watching it

00:50:10.620 because it creeps me out.

00:50:13.400 Is anybody else having that?

00:50:15.040 Like, I really wanted to watch more of the DNC

00:50:17.420 because it felt like I should be informed.

00:50:19.820 But the more I thought about it,

00:50:22.160 it's not really moving anybody's needle anywhere, is it?

00:50:27.320 How many people could possibly stomach watching the DNC

00:50:32.200 who had not already totally made up their mind

00:50:35.080 that this is their team?

00:50:36.880 Who in the world who is just casually interested in politics

00:50:40.420 and has not yet made up their mind could watch that? 0.99

00:50:44.660 It was just completely unwatchable crap. 0.99

00:50:48.860 Oh, my God. 0.99

00:50:51.380 And then Tim Walsh comes out,

00:50:54.020 and he's, I don't know if he's adopted this

00:50:57.480 just for the campaign or it's natural,

00:50:59.640 but he's gesticulating wildly to the crowd.

00:51:04.100 And these somewhat exaggerated, you know, his hand,

00:51:07.880 when Harris is waving to the crowd,

00:51:10.500 she puts one hand up,

00:51:12.260 and Walsh is standing right next to her,

00:51:14.180 and he's got two hands up.

00:51:15.240 First of all,

00:51:17.640 do not gesticulate more than the top of the ticket.

00:51:21.640 So, Tim Walsh, can I give you some advice?

00:51:24.340 It goes like this.

00:51:25.440 If you're standing right next to the top of the ticket,

00:51:28.400 and the top of the ticket has one hand up,

00:51:30.540 you know, waving to the crowd and accepting their applause,

00:51:33.740 don't put both hands up,

00:51:35.300 and don't act like you're jumping up and down

00:51:37.500 because you're taking attention

00:51:39.300 from the top of the ticket.

00:51:41.720 That's not cool.

00:51:43.320 That's not cool at all.

00:51:45.720 You need to be a vice president. 0.99

00:51:48.640 So act like a freaking vice president. 0.99

00:51:51.080 Look what the top of the ticket is doing, 0.99

00:51:53.620 body language-wise,

00:51:55.380 and do that.

00:51:57.880 Even if your instinct is not to do that,

00:52:00.040 that's your job.

00:52:01.400 Your job is to do that.

00:52:03.060 Do what she's doing.

00:52:04.580 Was Harris handling it better than him?

00:52:07.040 I thought so.

00:52:07.640 I think a professional approach to massive applause

00:52:13.480 makes you look pretty strong, right?

00:52:16.860 But jumping up and down because you got the applause

00:52:19.140 makes you look like a cheerleader.

00:52:23.420 So I'm going to compliment Harris.

00:52:25.740 She looked like a leader.

00:52:28.240 Tim Walsh looked like a cheerleader.

00:52:31.320 I guess they're both leaders,

00:52:33.000 but one's a cheerleader. 1.00

00:52:34.060 And then if you didn't see it,

00:52:37.420 there is a hilarious meme of Richard Simmons,

00:52:40.700 now deceased, I believe.

00:52:42.480 Richard Simmons, who is the exercise guru,

00:52:46.480 who is very effusive.

00:52:49.340 And when he would come out to the crowd,

00:52:52.240 both hands are up,

00:52:53.680 and he'd be dancing and bowing

00:52:54.980 and blowing kisses and stuff.

00:52:56.660 And you see it side by side with Tim Walsh

00:52:59.060 coming out to greet the crowd.

00:53:00.540 It does look like Richard Simmons.

00:53:04.120 Now, to me,

00:53:07.240 and I'm going to say it again,

00:53:10.020 Tim Walsh is so creepy,

00:53:12.660 I just can't even stand a second of him.

00:53:16.180 And it's not because he's a Democrat, right?

00:53:19.300 I could watch Obama all day long.

00:53:21.980 I could watch Bill Clinton all day long.

00:53:24.740 Even Hillary Clinton,

00:53:25.920 who I really, really didn't like as a candidate.

00:53:29.060 I mean, I didn't have, you know,

00:53:30.980 like a creepy reaction to it.

00:53:33.660 I just didn't like her.

00:53:35.340 But he gives me a genuine creep out.

00:53:38.160 Does anybody else get that?

00:53:40.540 And I don't know what it's about.

00:53:41.780 I don't have a specific idea

00:53:43.660 what's behind that.

00:53:45.820 But, oh my God,

00:53:47.140 the creepiness level is just off the chart.

00:53:49.320 I think that's why he started with the weird thing

00:53:52.200 to take pressure off himself being so creepy.

00:53:57.320 That's just my take.

00:53:59.300 Let's see.

00:54:00.340 The DNC mostly wanted to talk about Trump's character

00:54:03.420 and some hoaxes and lies about Trump.

00:54:07.420 They didn't mention crime, of course,

00:54:09.340 because that's not a strong topic of theirs.

00:54:11.280 But they want you to know that Trump's a bad person. 0.99

00:54:13.960 He's so bad. 0.99

00:54:15.080 Trump's bad.

00:54:15.760 Their audience will never notice

00:54:18.480 that their focus on Trump

00:54:21.300 is because they're trying to make you forget

00:54:24.400 that they don't have the goods

00:54:26.680 and that the things they've suggested for policies

00:54:29.080 are batshit crazy.

00:54:31.080 They're not just Democrat versus Republican. 0.99

00:54:34.340 They found a whole new category

00:54:36.020 that's neither Democrat nor Republican.

00:54:38.420 It's just guaranteed failure.

00:54:40.220 Her tax plan and, you know,

00:54:44.740 well, we've talked about it.

00:54:48.880 So I'll say again

00:54:50.280 that I think all the hoaxes about Trump

00:54:52.800 that the DNC speakers have presented,

00:54:55.820 you know, they continue fine people hoaxed,

00:54:58.400 drinking bleach hoax, hoax, hoax, hoax.

00:55:01.080 I think they know they're not true

00:55:02.940 and they know that if they can make

00:55:06.040 the Republicans get mad and talk about it,

00:55:08.660 oh, they're hoaxing us again.

00:55:09.880 They're hoaxing us.

00:55:11.040 That they'll have less pressure

00:55:12.720 to talk about policies

00:55:13.900 or to have Harris in front of the press.

00:55:17.380 So as a distraction,

00:55:19.300 the hoaxes are really working.

00:55:21.460 Worked on me.

00:55:24.560 Well, Oprah was at the DNC

00:55:26.380 and she said, quote,

00:55:29.120 I have been on the receiving end

00:55:30.620 of racism, sexism, and income inequality.

00:55:35.900 But somehow she fought through

00:55:37.560 and now she's worth billions of dollars 0.71

00:55:39.380 and got invited to the DNC.

00:55:41.640 So anyway.

00:55:44.080 Well, here's the funniest part of that.

00:55:46.220 The way CNN was covering her speech.

00:55:49.380 So CNN's got the camera on Oprah

00:55:51.100 and Oprah's going on.

00:55:54.540 And Oprah says,

00:55:55.660 and by the way,

00:55:56.160 the Vigilant Fox account on X caught this,

00:56:00.220 Oprah Winfrey's talking and mocking J.D. Vance.

00:56:06.560 She's mocking him about the childless cat lady comment.

00:56:12.940 And as Oprah is mocking him

00:56:15.660 about childless cat ladies,

00:56:17.940 CNN decides to cut to a close-up

00:56:20.660 of a audience member who is a woman

00:56:22.800 who may or may not be childless

00:56:26.120 and a cat lady.

00:56:27.760 Now, there's no mention of whether

00:56:29.360 she's childless or a cat lady, 0.99

00:56:31.080 but the fact that they cut to her

00:56:33.220 was hilarious.

00:56:37.560 And childless cat ladies. 1.00

00:56:39.760 And suddenly there's this big old face

00:56:41.680 of somebody in the audience

00:56:43.560 who really could have been.

00:56:46.400 I don't know.

00:56:47.340 Well, she could be a childless cat lady 1.00

00:56:49.740 if she had that look. 1.00

00:56:54.200 All right.

00:56:57.900 Bill Clinton was a speaker too.

00:57:00.720 And he hilariously mispronounced it

00:57:04.020 Kamala as Kamala.

00:57:07.820 Now, am I the only person who's noticed

00:57:11.220 how many black Americans call Kamala Kamala? 0.92

00:57:18.340 Black Americans do not pronounce her name correctly. 1.00

00:57:23.040 White Americans do not pronounce her name correctly. 0.97

00:57:26.940 President, ex-presidents do not pronounce her name correctly.

00:57:32.060 Maybe it's the name.

00:57:36.360 Maybe it's the name.

00:57:39.020 There's something about that name

00:57:40.700 that's difficult to remember how to pronounce it.

00:57:44.720 Now, part of the reason it's hard to remember

00:57:46.600 how to pronounce it

00:57:47.700 is that so many people

00:57:49.400 who are in the business

00:57:50.440 are mispronouncing it.

00:57:53.100 If I didn't see people

00:57:54.440 who should know how to do it correctly,

00:57:56.680 consistently doing it wrong,

00:57:58.360 I would remember it correctly.

00:58:01.080 So maybe it's just the name.

00:58:04.500 Can we find a little common ground there?

00:58:07.900 I would believe we should all be able

00:58:10.340 to meet at this place,

00:58:11.700 which is we'd all like to use

00:58:14.040 people's proper name.

00:58:15.160 You know, if we're being polite human beings,

00:58:19.060 we do want to use their name correctly.

00:58:22.880 But it's hard.

00:58:25.200 I think that's the better framing.

00:58:28.720 It's just our name to remember.

00:58:31.080 You know, nobody needs a nickname

00:58:32.480 more than she does.

00:58:33.800 She needs a nickname, 1.00

00:58:34.960 like a positive nickname from her own team.

00:58:37.580 Something that isn't coach.

00:58:40.020 Trying to call Tim Walsh coach

00:58:43.280 is just giving me every creepy vibe.

00:58:46.580 Oh, my God.

00:58:47.280 I just, I can't even watch it.

00:58:50.920 Anyway, MSNBC's Rachel Maddow,

00:58:55.540 she was on air talking about

00:58:58.120 how happy everybody was

00:59:01.240 that Tim Walsh was giving his speech.

00:59:03.400 And she actually said this

00:59:05.740 about the on-air talent at MSNBC,

00:59:09.520 that they were literally got up

00:59:12.700 and danced in jubilation

00:59:14.240 to Tim Walsh.

00:59:19.700 That's the news.

00:59:22.220 So the news people,

00:59:24.960 whose job it is to tell you the news,

00:59:28.460 now, obviously, they're opinion people,

00:59:30.320 but they're on a news network.

00:59:31.360 They say they danced in jubilation.

00:59:37.180 Yeah, thank you.

00:59:38.920 I see the wrap-up messages.

00:59:40.880 I'll wrap up pretty soon.

00:59:43.020 I've got about five more minutes,

00:59:44.660 so I should be fine.

00:59:45.480 Thank you.

00:59:47.960 Anyway,

00:59:48.920 that tells you everything you need to know.

00:59:52.500 If they're literally dancing to the happiness

00:59:54.740 that one team could win.

00:59:57.820 Daniel Dale,

00:59:58.680 the most embarrassing job in the world,

01:00:01.440 which is to be the political fact-checker

01:00:03.680 and ignore most of the lies by one side,

01:00:06.940 they brought him on to fact-check the claim

01:00:09.040 by one of the DNC people

01:00:10.400 that Trump wrote a project 2025,

01:00:13.620 which he did not.

01:00:15.160 So Daniel Dale,

01:00:16.080 to his credit,

01:00:17.400 says that Trump is not named

01:00:18.960 as an author of the document.

01:00:20.480 And then he went on to debunk

01:00:23.480 all of the other...

01:00:24.800 No, he didn't.

01:00:26.620 Now, I don't know what else

01:00:27.900 Daniel Dale debunked,

01:00:29.800 but I guarantee he didn't debunk

01:00:31.640 any of the big ones.

01:00:33.560 So I think you have to see this debunk

01:00:36.300 in the context of misinformation.

01:00:39.940 Here's why.

01:00:41.800 If you were watching that

01:00:43.200 and you saw that the only thing

01:00:44.760 that got debunked

01:00:46.120 was that one claim about that document,

01:00:48.180 which has the authors listed right on it,

01:00:50.480 but Daniel Dale could say

01:00:52.280 he's not listed as an author,

01:00:55.100 that is a fake fact-check.

01:00:58.820 What makes it fake

01:01:00.060 is not that it's wrong

01:01:01.600 because it's actually right.

01:01:03.560 What makes it fake

01:01:04.680 is if you watch the network

01:01:05.960 and that's the only thing

01:01:06.860 that got fact-checked, 1.00

01:01:08.020 you would believe the other bullshit. 1.00

01:01:10.620 You'd say, 1.00

01:01:11.320 well, they would fact-check it.

01:01:12.520 They got this guy

01:01:13.300 whose only job is to fact-check,

01:01:14.920 so all that other stuff must be true.

01:01:17.260 So Daniel Dale

01:01:18.420 actually ended up being

01:01:19.860 the person

01:01:21.300 who's most responsible

01:01:22.660 for spreading fake news

01:01:24.440 by fact-checking correctly

01:01:27.420 only this one thing

01:01:30.060 in this sea of other fake news

01:01:31.700 or at least fake claims.

01:01:34.800 So that's humiliating to be him

01:01:37.680 and I can't even imagine

01:01:38.980 how he sleeps at night, honestly.

01:01:41.060 I mean,

01:01:41.440 he must feel that he's part

01:01:42.940 of a huge disinformation campaign.

01:01:44.820 How could he not feel that?

01:01:47.980 And how could you be okay with that?

01:01:50.520 If your only job is lying

01:01:52.200 and you're okay with it?

01:01:56.160 Anyway,

01:01:56.820 Kim.com

01:01:57.680 noted that the poly market,

01:02:00.760 I guess that's a betting market,

01:02:02.500 now has Trump handily up on Harris,

01:02:05.160 53 to 46.

01:02:06.880 They were recently tied

01:02:08.480 and even before that,

01:02:10.200 Harris was slightly ahead.

01:02:12.280 And as Kim.com

01:02:15.200 cleverly says,

01:02:17.740 the more they talk,

01:02:19.080 the more they drop.

01:02:21.040 So the longer the DNC goes on,

01:02:23.840 the betting markets are like,

01:02:25.160 maybe not.

01:02:27.700 Not so much.

01:02:29.400 Maybe not.

01:02:30.260 I'll wrap it up

01:02:33.780 in a minute here.

01:02:35.680 We just found out

01:02:36.940 that Thomas Crooks,

01:02:39.120 the attempted assassin guy,

01:02:42.980 we knew he had

01:02:44.620 encrypted messaging apps,

01:02:46.380 but now we know

01:02:46.960 that they're

01:02:47.540 on platforms

01:02:48.880 located in Belgium,

01:02:50.260 New Zealand,

01:02:50.860 and Germany.

01:02:53.220 Now,

01:02:53.860 as General Flynn noted,

01:02:56.200 we knew that

01:02:57.120 probably in 24 hours.

01:02:58.540 We meaning

01:02:59.240 the government knew it.

01:03:00.760 Why'd they wait

01:03:01.340 till now to tell us?

01:03:02.860 And by the way,

01:03:04.820 by the way,

01:03:06.440 Belgium,

01:03:07.140 New Zealand,

01:03:07.700 and Germany,

01:03:08.680 what possible reason

01:03:10.460 would you have

01:03:11.200 to use an encrypted app

01:03:12.640 that is platformed

01:03:14.400 in those countries?

01:03:16.420 Well,

01:03:17.160 to keep the United States

01:03:18.460 from seeing your plans

01:03:19.580 would be one,

01:03:20.620 but it does suggest

01:03:22.080 there might be

01:03:22.900 some foreign involvement.

01:03:24.520 It doesn't,

01:03:25.040 it's not evidence for it,

01:03:26.800 but it's a situation

01:03:28.200 which would be

01:03:28.940 conducive to it.

01:03:30.240 It's hard for me

01:03:32.880 to imagine

01:03:33.400 that this kid

01:03:34.640 had enough

01:03:36.100 wherewithal

01:03:37.600 and knowledge

01:03:38.220 to use these

01:03:39.020 foreign encrypted apps.

01:03:41.640 But,

01:03:42.360 if you were being,

01:03:43.900 let's say,

01:03:44.400 managed by somebody

01:03:45.560 in an intelligence group,

01:03:47.860 either domestic

01:03:48.640 or foreign,

01:03:49.760 they could certainly

01:03:50.640 point him

01:03:51.120 toward those things

01:03:51.940 and say,

01:03:52.280 you know,

01:03:53.220 you should be

01:03:53.760 off the grid,

01:03:54.420 you'd better use

01:03:55.000 these foreign encrypted apps

01:03:56.540 because America

01:03:57.160 is in the back door

01:03:58.460 of ours.

01:04:00.560 So,

01:04:01.280 curiouser and curiouser.

01:04:02.840 All right,

01:04:03.140 the funniest thing

01:04:03.860 is that the head

01:04:04.960 of Hamas,

01:04:05.840 Sinwar,

01:04:07.220 he's added a requirement

01:04:08.620 to the ceasefire negotiations.

01:04:10.900 He is politely asking

01:04:12.380 if they do a ceasefire,

01:04:14.080 could you please 0.98

01:04:14.780 not kill me? 0.99

01:04:17.180 So,

01:04:17.820 one of the requirements

01:04:19.260 of the ceasefire

01:04:20.140 is that Israel

01:04:21.400 has to promise

01:04:22.100 not to kill

01:04:22.820 the guy

01:04:23.880 who was in charge

01:04:24.720 of October 7th.

01:04:26.540 Let me see

01:04:28.400 if I can

01:04:28.960 take a bet

01:04:29.960 on whether Israel

01:04:31.100 will accept

01:04:31.960 that they will

01:04:33.140 let the mastermind

01:04:34.680 of the October 7th

01:04:36.600 slaughter

01:04:37.500 live

01:04:39.280 so that they

01:04:40.100 can get a ceasefire.

01:04:43.340 No.

01:04:46.220 So,

01:04:46.780 there are two possibilities.

01:04:48.500 Either Israel 0.95

01:04:49.960 will say,

01:04:50.500 no,

01:04:50.760 we're not going

01:04:51.180 to agree with that 1.00

01:04:51.820 and then they kill him 1.00

01:04:52.720 or Israel says, 1.00

01:04:54.820 oh,

01:04:54.980 we totally agree

01:04:55.720 with that 1.00

01:04:56.080 and then they kill him. 0.98

01:04:58.240 Here's what's not 0.93

01:04:59.080 in question.

01:05:00.540 Israel's going 1.00

01:05:01.120 to kill him. 1.00

01:05:02.240 There is 100% chance 1.00

01:05:03.940 they're going 1.00

01:05:04.480 to fucking kill him. 1.00

01:05:05.860 They might do it today. 1.00

01:05:07.560 They might do it tomorrow.

01:05:09.580 It could take

01:05:10.320 eight years. 1.00

01:05:11.240 They're fucking 1.00

01:05:11.820 going to kill him. 1.00

01:05:13.140 There's nothing 1.00

01:05:13.780 that's going to stop it.

01:05:15.300 And by the way,

01:05:16.100 if you were Israel,

01:05:17.180 you'd feel the same way.

01:05:19.000 Now,

01:05:19.300 am I

01:05:19.740 encouraging it,

01:05:21.660 promoting it,

01:05:23.140 embracing it?

01:05:23.800 I'm not even

01:05:25.280 involved.

01:05:26.220 I'm just observing.

01:05:27.760 There's nothing

01:05:28.580 that will stop Israel 1.00

01:05:29.680 from killing 1.00

01:05:30.260 that fucking guy. 1.00

01:05:31.860 And, 1.00

01:05:32.460 you'd do the same thing.

01:05:34.500 So,

01:05:34.940 I don't have

01:05:35.820 an opinion on it.

01:05:37.400 No opinion

01:05:38.000 is needed.

01:05:39.560 It's,

01:05:40.220 we'll just watch

01:05:41.220 what happens

01:05:41.740 and there's only

01:05:42.480 one way it goes.

01:05:45.000 So,

01:05:45.520 he's pretty dead.

01:05:46.580 That,

01:05:47.000 ladies and gentlemen,

01:05:47.600 is the end of my show.

01:05:48.540 I've got to do some

01:05:49.340 veterinarian stuff

01:05:50.660 with my dog.

01:05:51.540 She's got a torn ACL

01:05:52.680 and so she's not too happy

01:05:54.900 but we're going to see

01:05:55.760 about getting that fixed

01:05:56.840 if we can.

01:05:58.400 Thanks for joining.

01:05:59.520 I can't,

01:06:00.080 I can't go private

01:06:01.040 with you today

01:06:01.700 on Locals

01:06:02.720 because I got to run.

01:06:04.140 But,

01:06:04.420 thanks for joining

01:06:04.980 and I'll see you tomorrow

01:06:06.400 and Locals,

01:06:07.820 I'll see you in the man cave

01:06:09.000 tonight.

01:06:10.720 And,

01:06:11.100 bye for now.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - August 22, 2024

Episode 2574 CWSA 08⧸22⧸24

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