Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2635 CWSA 10⧸21⧸24

00:00:00.000 economy. Well, we're going to have quite the show today. I'm going to put up some comments

00:00:07.060 by the locals people, because they get the best of everything.

00:00:13.620 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of human civilization. It's called

00:00:33.340 Coffee with Scott Adams, and I'm pretty sure you've never had a better time in your whole life.

00:00:37.720 But if you'd like to take this experience up to levels that nobody can understand with their

00:00:43.960 tiny, shiny human brains, all you need is a cup or mug or a glass, a tank or gels, a stein, a canteen

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00:01:00.100 It's called the Simultaneous Sip, and it happens right now. Go.

00:01:07.720 Ah. Now there's something you can't mail in, am I right? That's right. Got to do it in person.

00:01:17.620 No ID required.

00:01:21.680 Well, I've got all kinds of things to talk about. Shall I jump right in? There's a, according to

00:01:26.540 Wall Street Journal, there might be a big breakthrough in electric motors, which would be a gigantic big

00:01:33.600 deal because the size of the breakthrough could be like an 80% efficiency. Apparently, Ben Franklin

00:01:40.780 invented a little electric motor back in his day that was not considered efficient enough. And for

00:01:47.920 whatever reason, the new modern motors became the standard. But there have been other developments in

00:01:54.340 science that might make old Ben Franklin's design that seems to, instead of sending a flow of energy,

00:02:01.500 energy, does a back and forth between negative and positive somehow, and can reduce maybe your,

00:02:07.680 can improve your efficiency tremendously. Might be 80% better.

00:02:15.100 That, now, that might not sound like a big story to you, but there's going to be an electric engine

00:02:20.480 in every robot and every car. If you can make them 80% more efficient, that's everything. Like that,

00:02:29.400 everything you assumed about the economy, the future, completely different, just with this one,

00:02:37.360 one invention, if it works. Now, it's not really right on the edge of, you know, they're going to

00:02:43.360 roll it out. They need some work, but it looks like it might. And, you know, the, the thing about the

00:02:50.100 future and predicting it is that probably it's going to be, you know, six people in a garage somewhere

00:02:58.080 trying to make an electric motor work better, or somebody invented something to make a battery

00:03:03.960 better, or somebody figured out how to make a small modular nuclear power plant a little bit

00:03:10.120 safer or better or faster. And that's going to be everything. Basically, you could just look at

00:03:16.440 energy inventions, and you would know everything about the future of a country.

00:03:21.480 So let's hope we out invent other countries. I like our odds. Now, there's a story that says from

00:03:29.100 No Ridge that says vitamin B12 might be the key to reducing your chronic inflammation. Well, I have

00:03:38.760 lots of chronic inflammation. I have always, and I've tried to figure out what that is all about. And I

00:03:46.520 have a pretty, a pretty good opinion on this now. Now, you could talk to your doctor. That'd be one

00:03:53.460 way to find out about your health. Or you could listen to a disgraced cartoonist on the internet. 0.98

00:03:59.080 Which one makes more sense? Well, it's probably closer to a tie than you'd like to admit.

00:04:07.200 But I can tell you from my own experience that what makes you have chronic inflammation is

00:04:12.880 everything. I think everything. Every little pollution, every food additive, everything you do,

00:04:23.640 everything you touch. It feels like everything causes inflammation. So I have experimented with

00:04:29.320 taking B12 and not taking B12. And I can tell you that my experience of chronic inflammation was no

00:04:36.140 different. However, I suspect B12 is good for you. Now, I'm not a doctor. So don't take my advice

00:04:44.240 for any of this. But I'd be surprised if it's bad for you. So, but it's not going to cure your

00:04:51.340 inflammation. I'm pretty sure of that. Unless you have the one kind of inflammation that is only

00:04:57.260 caused by B12, which would be amazing to me. And then who knows? But listen to your doctor. Don't

00:05:03.900 listen to me. So I saw a story that according to something called Intelligent, I guess that's a

00:05:12.600 publication. One in six companies are hesitant to hire recent college graduates because they have

00:05:17.540 all kinds of problems with these college graduates. What do you think of the problems? Well, 5% of the

00:05:22.500 companies report that some of the recent college graduates were unsatisfactory. Now, does that sound

00:05:31.080 like a problem? If 5% of your college hires turned out to be not good, I would say that's actually a

00:05:41.240 pretty good rate. But it's, but the story is that it's bad news. Is it? If only 5% of the people you

00:05:50.300 hired who had college degrees turned out to be bad, I feel like you'd be one of the best hirers of all

00:05:56.500 time. So that doesn't sound bad. 5%. Six in 10 companies fired a recent college graduate they

00:06:03.400 hired this year. Again, six in 10 companies firing a recent college graduate. Well, that's just the

00:06:09.580 5%. So that's not really very scary. That sounds kind of in line with what I'd expect.

00:06:18.300 One in six hiring managers say they're hesitant to hire people from this group. In other words, recent

00:06:26.940 college graduates. Well, why do you think that they're hesitant to do that? The news is full of

00:06:34.080 bullshit stories about, oh, they're all incompetent and they can't do anything. Well, if you've ever read 1.00

00:06:40.000 the news, of course you'd be hesitant. But so far, the two pieces of data that they've given me have

00:06:47.400 not suggested any reason for pain. But let us continue. Hiring managers say recent college

00:06:53.980 graduates are unprepared for the workforce. That's what a recent college graduate is.

00:07:02.320 If any of you were ever recent college graduates, do you remember how unprepared you were for the

00:07:07.980 workforce? Oh, my God. It's the definition of unprepared. Oh, yeah. Very unprepared. But is

00:07:15.000 that different? Is that new? This is exactly the way it's always been. One in seven companies may

00:07:21.520 refrain from hiring college graduates. Well, again, because they read the news. Nine in 10 hiring

00:07:26.440 managers say recent college graduates should undergo etiquette training. I think that could be useful,

00:07:34.200 but I don't think it's the end of the world either. Yes, it's true that some people need a little

00:07:43.120 you know, etiquette. It'd be a good idea. I'm all for it. I don't think it's going to be the difference

00:07:49.320 between inventing a new microchip and not. It's like, oh, we're trying to invent a new way to

00:07:56.920 communicate. We're trying to build a satellite. But it turned out that Eric didn't know which fork to

00:08:02.600 use at lunch. So it all fell apart. Yeah, I mean, it would be good to have all these manners and

00:08:09.720 stuff, but probably doesn't change how many satellites get invented. And three and four

00:08:17.280 companies report issues with recent graduate hires, of course, because they've got issues with

00:08:23.440 every one of the cohorts that they hired. You could randomly pick any group of people.

00:08:30.060 You could make it racist. You could make it sexist. How about we'll just look at the LGBTQ 1.00

00:08:35.700 new hires. Do you think that managers have had any problems in the LGBTQ community? Probably.

00:08:44.420 Now, in my experience, the LGBTQ employees are unusually good. Just, you know, anecdotally.

00:08:54.940 I have no science behind that. They just, just my experience is that the people who are out

00:09:01.060 just tend to be pretty serious people and know how to get stuff done. So, but I think you could

00:09:07.620 take any group and then ask the manager if they've had any recent problems with them. And statistically

00:09:12.360 speaking, they would say yes, even if it was their very best group. They'd say, yeah, I got a problem.

00:09:17.840 Two people were a problem this month. Every group has problems. So, I think this might be

00:09:23.820 a continuation from ancient Greece.

00:09:29.920 I have a distant memory that there is some quote from ancient Greece, somebody like, you know,

00:09:36.960 Plato or Socrates or somebody like that, saying that the new generation are all basically worthless.

00:09:43.700 And then that generation grew up and realized that they were actually pretty awesome. But the next

00:09:52.100 generation, they're looking pretty awesome. And then repeat, repeat, repeat. When I was a kid,

00:10:00.240 I heard every single day that the hippies that were in my generation were all worthless, dirty, 1.00

00:10:06.980 non-working pieces of trash. And the world was going to end. And it just never stops. We just always 1.00

00:10:14.720 think the next generation is garbage. Here's why. Here's why. 80% of every group is not helping. 1.00

00:10:27.560 So, of course, you need all the people to do all the jobs that need to be done. So, they're getting

00:10:32.600 jobs done. But the people who are making civilization move forward, it's like 1% of 1% of the country.

00:10:40.840 And guess what? Did I just sound like Joe Biden? Guess what? People, guess what? It's the same 1% 0.80

00:10:52.520 and 1% that are making the country move forward that has always been the same 1% and 1%. Everybody else

00:10:58.720 is just carrying things, just moving stuff, right? But you need that. I mean, the country would fall

00:11:05.020 apart. So, some people are digging in the ground to dig up some coal, to move it somewhere, to do

00:11:10.540 something with it. So, most of the world is just moving stuff. You know, they're driving stuff. They're

00:11:17.140 moving papers back and forth. And then 1% and 1% are inventing the future. That 1% and 1% is probably

00:11:26.680 stronger and better than it's ever been any time in history. So, we might be in a better shape

00:11:32.440 than any time in history, but it would always look like it isn't. And it will look like that next time

00:11:38.160 and next time and next time. Daniel Penny, you remember him? He was the one who tried to

00:11:43.820 keep people safe on a subway train by restraining somebody who was looking dangerous. The person who

00:11:49.840 was looking dangerous died in his grips. It didn't look like it was a killer grip, but, you know,

00:11:55.680 maybe drugs were involved. We don't know. But it's coming to trial, I guess, on Monday.

00:12:01.400 And the reporting is that the lawyer will try to put the people who are in the jury, they're

00:12:09.700 going to put them in the car. Now, that means mentally. So, this is a lawyer trick from Jerry

00:12:17.780 Spence. I read his book, How to Argue and Win Every Time or something like that. A very old

00:12:24.580 book, but very influential. And I think maybe that's where I got a lot of my interest in persuasion

00:12:32.000 was learning about how one defense lawyer won every single case. And what he would do is he

00:12:38.060 would simply put the jury, he would take them on a ride and tell a story where he put the jury

00:12:44.420 in the spot of the person he was trying to get some money for whatever accident they were in.

00:12:50.480 And the people would just feel it. They just became the victim. And then if you become the

00:12:56.820 victim, it's pretty easy to give money to the victim because you're the victim.

00:13:01.320 So, that, of course, I don't know if the reporting is based on something they know from the defense's

00:13:08.260 plans or it's just obvious. But here's how I would do it. I would say, it's whatever it is,

00:13:17.000 I'm going to make up the facts. These are not the real facts. It's Tuesday morning. You had your

00:13:22.860 coffee and you went to work just like always. You got on the subway. You're already feeling a little

00:13:28.840 bit of concern because the subway is getting a little more dangerous. You do a look around.

00:13:34.280 You ask yourself, if something went down, where would you go? Where's your exits? Who would protect

00:13:38.700 you? Who would be dangerous? You're never really comfortable, are you? Suddenly, you see a gentleman who's

00:13:44.800 acting up. And he's acting up in a way that looks dangerous and he's making some threats. And you're

00:13:51.780 looking at the faces of the men in the car and you're pleading with them with your eyes. And you're

00:13:56.980 saying, please, if this gets worse, will one of you do something? Because he's bigger than I am

00:14:03.100 and I can't control this situation. I can't leave. I'm trapped. I'm afraid.

00:14:09.980 And then you look at the faces of the men and they're looking away. Every time you look at a man,

00:14:17.100 he's trying to not look at this guy. If this guy attacks me, will these men help me?

00:14:23.380 Will these men watch? What is 2023? I don't know what year it was. Am I dead?

00:14:31.480 If this guy wants to hurt me, are they just going to watch? And now I'm really afraid because he's

00:14:40.720 starting to act up. He's starting to make specific threats against other people. And he's big enough

00:14:47.040 that he can make it happen and make it happen quick. And the men are not moving. They're not moving.

00:14:55.680 I'm dead. I'm going to die right now because nobody is going to stop this man. 0.62

00:15:05.740 And then one man stands up. I found out later his name was Daniel Penny. And he acted. I don't know

00:15:15.420 why the other men didn't. But when he acted, a few others came to his assistance. Somebody had to go

00:15:22.540 first. There was one leader on the car and a few followers. But there was only one leader.

00:15:32.380 Fortunately, I found out later that this wasn't an accident. He had been trained. He had been in

00:15:38.540 the military. And he was trained to go toward danger, not away from it. And the only thing that

00:15:45.320 holds society together, ladies and gentlemen, is the fact that some men are trained to go toward danger.

00:15:52.540 If you didn't have them, we couldn't be in this courtroom having a conversation.

00:15:57.780 You couldn't ever get on that car and take a ride to work and be safe. You need to know

00:16:03.820 that if somebody acts up, there's going to be somebody nearby, probably a man, but doesn't have

00:16:10.060 to be, who's going to go toward the danger instead of away from it. That, ladies and gentlemen,

00:16:15.540 is the only thing that holds civilization together. If you want to get rid of that,

00:16:20.200 you're going to get rid of the very fibers and fabric that keep America whole. The moment you

00:16:29.640 can't depend on a big man coming toward danger, everything's gone. Everything. You're going to lose

00:16:37.460 your life, your job, your family. Everything you like about this country is dependent on this one

00:16:43.880 very fragile thought. It's not even the physical thing. It's a thought. And the thought is this.

00:16:53.880 It's better if I go toward that danger. As soon as you take that away from our system, the whole

00:17:02.480 thing falls apart. We become like other countries. Other countries that can't figure out how to pull 0.98

00:17:08.780 it together. Countries that can't run a legal system. It's the basis of everything. The moment 1.00

00:17:15.220 our legal system isn't trusted or isn't part of this solution, nothing else works. The legal system

00:17:21.940 and the threat that strong men or strong women will come to the rescue of people who are in trouble

00:17:29.600 in public and even in private, if you take that away from the United States, we've got nothing left.

00:17:36.260 Everything. Everything. Everything depends on that one fragile thought. If somebody comes after you,

00:17:45.300 the people around you will stop it. Ladies and gentlemen, this is a little bit about this one

00:17:52.540 situation, and we all see that. It's also about the bigger situation because this is in the news.

00:17:59.120 Everybody's watching. Everybody who sees this is going to be affected by it. If Daniel Penny goes to

00:18:05.240 jail for trying to help, the next one isn't going to help. Let me look you in the eyes,

00:18:14.360 every one of you in the jury, and here's what I want you to say. I want you to look me in the eye,

00:18:21.220 and I want you to tell me that you're okay being a person who removes the most vital thought

00:18:28.400 in American life. That if somebody comes for you, we're going to help. If you take that away,

00:18:37.400 just know what you're doing. You can't get it back.

00:18:44.280 So, Daniel Penny is way more, way more than a case about one man who killed one man in an accidental,

00:18:53.280 presumably accidental, um, um, act of, really an act of love. It was an act of love for his fellow

00:19:02.540 citizens. Didn't work out, and it was a tragedy. But you don't want to throw away the good because

00:19:11.060 there was something bad that happened this one time. Ladies and gentlemen, I depend on you

00:19:16.060 to keep America solid. If you remove this pillar, we're all in trouble. So that's how I'd do it.

00:19:28.960 I hope that Daniel Penny has a good lawyer.

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00:20:32.380 I was listening to a story that I would like you all to ignore me on,

00:20:36.780 meaning that I'm going to say some things in the medical domain, and you really, really,

00:20:42.560 really need to ignore me on this one, okay? Do not take anything I'm going to say as being true.

00:20:52.020 It's just where my head's at. So there's a story about two women who had breast cancer. I think they

00:20:58.840 got surgery to get rid of the tumors or whatever. But then they turned down the follow-up work that I

00:21:05.520 think would have been chemo and some other drugs and some other things, because they didn't like

00:21:09.900 where the side effects were pointing. But so far, they're fine. You know, a number of years have

00:21:16.240 gone by and they seem to be fine. I can't conclude that they're fine. Now, here's what I want to tell

00:21:20.880 you. If what you hear is me telling you not to follow the advice of doctors, I'm not saying that.

00:21:27.420 I'm not saying that. I'm saying I was putting myself in their position

00:21:35.140 coming off of the pandemic. And the doctor says to you, all right, in this situation,

00:21:43.680 the rules say, usually there's some kind of, you know, employer. And my employer, my hospital,

00:21:52.620 my HMO or whatever, says that in these conditions, we should use these treatments. It's one of these

00:21:59.220 three treatments. Pick one. And here's my question. How do those doctors know those are the right

00:22:07.380 treatments? Well, you'd say science, obviously. Every drug has been studied. But I lived through

00:22:15.620 the pandemic. All of you did too. When somebody says a drug has been studied, does it hit you the

00:22:25.300 same as it did before the pandemic? Doesn't hit me the same. Today, I say to myself, okay, who in the

00:22:34.360 world would have enough money to do, you know, a multi-million dollar study about a drug that's

00:22:41.180 going to benefit one company? That company. So is there any independent data on any of these

00:22:52.600 products? My guess is no. Meaning that there is no, you know, popular, probably, there's probably

00:23:01.980 no popular treatment for cancer that has been studied by independent anything. Probably just

00:23:11.660 the people who make the drug study it and tell you it worked. Now, when they tell you that the cancer

00:23:16.920 drug worked, are they telling you that it cured it and you go home and you're good? Mostly not.

00:23:25.020 You know, there's lots of different cancers and lots of different things going on. But mostly,

00:23:29.440 they're slowing it down. Now, combine everything you know about the pandemic with everything you

00:23:37.020 know about how drugs are tested by only the company that's going to make millions of dollars if it gets

00:23:41.720 approved. And then you throw on that it doesn't cure it. Now, if it cured it, you'd be pretty sure it

00:23:50.580 was working. Because you'd say the people who didn't take it, they died. The people who did take it,

00:23:55.720 blah, blah. But what if all it does is extend your life? Do you think that they could really sort that

00:24:03.000 out? It's like we got them an extra year? Because I'll bet you there are no two cancer patients who do

00:24:09.980 the same things. And I don't know how you'd sort all that out. If all you're looking at is, you know,

00:24:16.620 somebody bought two extra years, and that's the only thing that drug is doing for you. Got you two

00:24:22.080 extra years. But it made all of your years bad. So from day one, you know, you had side effects,

00:24:29.060 you were tired, your hair fell out, whatever it was. Do you think you would trust a study that was

00:24:36.480 funded by the company that makes millions, and only them, nobody else? And it said it gave you two extra

00:24:44.080 years when you knew that every single person who used it was in a different situation?

00:24:48.760 So you're not entirely sure if you even isolated the effect of that one drug, because they're

00:24:54.380 probably on three different drugs. They might be on 10 different drugs, because they might be slamming

00:24:59.940 vitamin D and B12, because somebody told them to do it. They might be trying any one of, you know,

00:25:06.840 a million things that are in the media of like, oh, somebody tried this. And, you know, it's all

00:25:10.840 anecdotal. There probably aren't two people who are in the same situation. So can you really even know if

00:25:18.540 those drugs work? Now, here's where I have to be careful. I would talk to your doctor, not me.

00:25:28.300 You definitely don't want to get your cancer advice from me. But I think there's a real crisis in

00:25:36.120 medicine. And the pandemic uncovered it in a way that we've never seen before. You always knew that

00:25:43.120 it wasn't 100%. If your doctor told you to do something, it was a good idea. But I feel like

00:25:49.380 I've taken it from 100% down to 60%. Meaning I'd still take the doctor's advice in all likelihood.

00:25:57.340 But it doesn't feel like a 90% anymore. Feels like better than a coin flip. But not super better

00:26:06.600 than a coin flip for a lot of different categories. So I'm just gonna put that out there. But listen to

00:26:12.960 your doctor. Don't do anything crazy. I just I just don't trust anything anymore. The US government

00:26:19.620 says, according to Wired, that relying on China for there are lithium batteries for networks and stuff

00:26:26.540 is really risky. But I'm going to give the counter to that. I think that there is zero chance that the

00:26:34.840 United States and China could enter a shooting war that lasts. You know, you could imagine there might be 0.99

00:26:41.220 this skirmish over an island or something. But in terms of a major war between the two countries,

00:26:46.980 almost impossible. Almost impossible. Almost impossible. And it's because we're too economically

00:26:53.420 tied. So, yes, it'd be better for us if we didn't have to depend on for lithium batteries. But on the other

00:27:04.240 hand, it's probably this depending on each other for everything that makes us not go to war. Have any

00:27:12.520 countries ever gone to war? Have any countries ever gone to war when they were highly dependent on each

00:27:21.680 other for their economies in the modern world? Let's just say the last 50 years. Is there any country

00:27:29.260 that went to war with their own customers? Is that even a thing?

00:27:38.580 I wonder. Yeah. So it seems to me that the risk with China, as long as we have, you know, this need 0.99

00:27:47.600 for the rare earth materials and they need stuff from us, which is we need to buy things from them for

00:27:53.660 them to stay in business. I don't see how we're going to have a major war. But also, China doesn't

00:28:00.260 need a major war to someday control the world if they think their population is going to grow

00:28:06.240 and stay bigger than the rest. China really just needs to manage their situation well. 1.00

00:28:13.940 And given the just pure number of people, that should put them in the economic dominant position

00:28:20.320 eventually. It might take a hundred years, but whoever has the most people and, you know, all that

00:28:28.600 land should be the dominant country in a hundred years, no matter what else happens. So it doesn't

00:28:36.660 make sense for China to start a war. It doesn't make sense for us to start a war. It makes no sense

00:28:41.180 whatsoever to be in a war with Russia. War doesn't make any sense anymore. It only makes sense for the

00:28:49.140 terrorist type, you know, Yemen hoodies kind of weird things. And, you know, some special cases like

00:28:57.280 Russia trying to keep, you know, keep NATO out of Ukraine. So Ukraine's got a special case. But 0.90

00:29:05.440 I don't remember that we were buying a lot from Ukraine. And I don't remember, I mean, even though

00:29:13.360 they were enormous in terms of food and trade, it feels like we absorbed that economic hit pretty

00:29:23.680 easily. I don't remember anybody starving because Ukraine couldn't make enough wheat. Weren't we

00:29:29.380 supposed to run out of wheat? Because it's like the breadbasket of Europe. And then what happened?

00:29:35.140 Did just somebody grow more wheat? So what happened to losing the breadbasket of Europe? It's like,

00:29:42.040 we don't even talk about it. So I don't know what happened there. Anyway, I'm not worried about the

00:29:47.740 big countries wanting to go to war because they just don't have any reason. It's just all downside.

00:29:54.380 And I'm not sure that was always the case. According to LinkedIn and the Post Millennials 0.99

00:30:00.040 reporting, the older job seekers from 60 to 78 are looking for jobs. I am not surprised whatsoever.

00:30:09.520 That seems like the natural outcome from the economy starting to fall apart. Is the older 0.63

00:30:15.500 people looking for jobs? So tomorrow, here's a announcement. So tomorrow will be two weeks,

00:30:23.600 Tuesday night, tomorrow, two weeks until actual election day. I'm going to live stream in the

00:30:31.280 evening tomorrow at 9pm Eastern Time. My local time that would be 6pm. And it will be in place of my

00:30:39.840 normal man cave that I do. Usually that's just for subscribers. But this will be open. I'll do it on

00:30:45.620 all the platforms. And all I'm going to do is fill out my voting ballot. I'm not going to show it to you.

00:30:53.540 I'm not going to tell you to vote for. I'm just going to keep you company. And so if you've got a

00:30:59.640 little bit of ADHD and you keep telling yourself, I'm going to do it. I'll get to it. I can't remember

00:31:04.360 where it is. Just find your ballot. Just find it. And then if you want to join me, fill it out at the

00:31:14.760 same time. I won't see yours. You won't see mine. But we will just be patriots at the same time.

00:31:19.640 And this one really matters. I've never done this before. In fact, honestly, I've never gone out of

00:31:27.340 my way to tell people to vote. Because in the past, you know, pre-Trump, it never seemed like it

00:31:34.640 mattered. Now it matters. Now I feel like I'm doing something that has real purpose. So we're just going

00:31:44.980 to have fun. It won't last that long, probably. I'll take some questions, do some usual stuff.

00:31:51.180 But it won't be much entertainment. We'll just keep you company. And we'll just fill out our

00:31:56.620 ballots at the same time and mail them in. Now, I remind you that if you're in a state like I am,

00:32:02.780 California, and you say to yourself, but Scott, my vote doesn't matter. Oh, yes, it does.

00:32:08.320 Oh, yes, it does. Because if Trump doesn't win, not just the electoral college, but also the

00:32:15.440 overall national vote, he's not going to have the credibility he needs. He's going to have to just

00:32:21.300 scream through the voting on this. He's going to have to dominate the swing states, but also

00:32:28.600 cleanly win the national vote. Otherwise, it's just trouble. We need Californians to say,

00:32:37.540 well, even though he didn't win in California, it's the most he's ever gotten there. Well,

00:32:42.980 maybe he didn't win in New York, but oh my God, was it close. Know what I mean? So there's no such

00:32:49.440 thing as a swing state anymore. They're all swing states. Everything's swinging, but for a different

00:32:55.520 purpose. But they're all swinging. So get over your idea that you live in a state where it doesn't

00:33:03.020 matter. It all matters this time. And this is different. It's not like other times. Other

00:33:08.060 times, honestly, it didn't matter. And I've said that myself. I've said it didn't really matter.

00:33:14.060 This time, this matters as much as anything has ever mattered in the United States.

00:33:19.760 This is the highest level of, oh my God, it matters. You can't get higher than this much

00:33:26.340 mattering. So do what you need to do. According to the Daily Mail, Harris has a huge, huge lead in

00:33:37.200 older women over the age of 50, even more than Joe Biden did. So the older women, they love her. 0.87

00:33:46.480 What do we know about older women in the United States? They're on antidepressants. 1.00

00:33:52.260 If you would like to not be on antidepressants, maybe vote the other way this time. Maybe vote for

00:33:59.800 the guy who's got a plan to get you off of antidepressants. RFK Jr., better food, better

00:34:05.780 exercise, better pharma. Yeah. If your problem is your own mental health, I think Trump can help you

00:34:14.460 with that a lot more than anybody else can, because of the team he's bringing into it.

00:34:18.220 All right. Let's talk about the fake polls. Washington Post still has Harris winning the

00:34:26.280 Electoral College. Simon Rosenberg's talking about this on X. The very next story. All right. So here

00:34:38.040 are the stories that are next to each other. The Washington Post has Harris winning the Electoral

00:34:42.480 College, which means winning the election. The very next story is that Trump opens a 10

00:34:48.180 point lead on Harris, according to modernity in a major forecast. In the Decision Desk HQ,

00:34:56.240 the Hill forecast. Trump has a 52% chance of winning versus 42, right? So Washington Post has Harris

00:35:07.440 winning the Hill and the Decision Desk HQ. They have Trump winning handily. Now, do you remember what I told you

00:35:18.020 about the polls? What we're going to see is two phenomenon that are both fake, but they're fake in a

00:35:28.340 different way. So the original polls didn't have to be accurate because nobody voted yet. So nobody could

00:35:35.300 tell if they were inaccurate. Under those conditions, many of the polls operate as propaganda. So in order

00:35:43.860 to raise money, your friendly pollster says, my God, look how good you're doing. If you just had a

00:35:50.540 little bit more money, it would put you over the top. You would win. And then the money people say,

00:35:54.940 well, perfect. This is a good use of my money because it's so close that my money could make

00:36:01.080 the difference. So if you want to raise money, you got to show that it's close. If you want to be

00:36:08.340 credible as a pollster, you got to get it right. So you're going to move from an area in which simply

00:36:14.960 making it fake look like it's really close is what everybody makes money from. Everybody gains that

00:36:21.780 way. Just more money flowing around. Yeah, it's close. It's close. You better get another poll.

00:36:28.820 Why don't I sell you another poll result? We'll do you a private one. Yeah, it's so close. You're

00:36:33.820 going to have to study everything. So everybody's benefiting by fake too close polls. Now, what

00:36:41.260 happens when you get close to the actual election? Well, you got two kinds of pollsters. One kind of

00:36:46.480 pollster wants to remain credible. So they converge on the accurate as they know it answer so that when

00:36:54.500 the actual election happens, they go, well, you know, it's a good thing we updated it from our summer

00:37:00.580 numbers that are way off. But when we got to the end, apparently the public changed. No, it wasn't.

00:37:07.100 It wasn't us. It was the public. The public changed their votes. No, no, it wasn't the way we measured

00:37:11.920 it. No, don't look at us. Don't look at us. Don't look at us. The public changed their mind because

00:37:17.840 because Trump sold some French fries. Yeah, that's it. That's it. That's it. There was a big move at the end

00:37:25.120 because Trump sold French fries at McDonald's and that probably moved a lot of voters. So that's why

00:37:31.860 we move from being, you know, saying he would lose to saying he's going to win at the end. So now that

00:37:37.660 would be the honest pollsters because they're trying to hit the polling number and the actual result

00:37:44.940 being as close as possible. And then there's the Washington Post. There should be some pollsters who

00:37:53.540 will maintain that it never left too close to call. The reason they would do that is presumably,

00:38:03.060 now this is speculation based on observation, that they're part of the cheat. Now, if there are in

00:38:09.920 fact, and this is speculation, if there are in fact entities within the Democrat party that are planning

00:38:15.700 to cheat and they want to get away with it, the only way they could get away with it is if some of

00:38:23.160 their illegitimate press and illegitimate pollsters say it was too close to call. So how can you even

00:38:30.580 say it was cheated? We don't even know who was supposed to win. It was too close to call. And then

00:38:35.700 others will say, but, but, but these other polls said it wasn't close at all. Trump was totally going

00:38:40.940 to win. And then they'll say, but, but, but the Washington Post said it was going to be close.

00:38:46.840 But the Washington Post is the loudest noise. The people who are pollsters, but do not own media

00:38:53.400 are just going to be complaining. But the Washington Post will write story after story telling you that

00:38:59.980 it was too close to call. And so obviously it's a clean race because the courts have not shown that

00:39:05.680 there were any problems because the courts are not the right tool to do it and they don't have time to

00:39:10.300 do it and people don't have a standing and they want to stay on it if they can. So the story will be

00:39:16.420 that there were big polls that said it was going to be close. It was in fact close. And if you think

00:39:24.040 there were some irregularities, well, that's always the case. There's always some irregularities. And

00:39:28.540 we found a few, but they didn't, they weren't enough to change anything. But what if there were more?

00:39:34.680 You won't know. No way to know if there were more, more ones that didn't get caught. You won't have a

00:39:41.160 way to know. So it does look in every way like the, the fix is in. But don't blame Dominion voting

00:39:51.120 systems. They have warned us in an ex post. So this is from Dominion. Dominion is closely monitoring

00:39:58.960 claims around the November, 2024 election and strongly encourages use of verified, credible

00:40:04.980 sources of information. So what would be a verified, credible source of information according to

00:40:10.400 Dominion? Probably the Washington Post and the New York Times, maybe a time magazine, the Atlantic,

00:40:21.160 MSNBC, CNN. Okay. So you're credible and my, my credible might not be the same, but Dominion says

00:40:35.940 we remain fully prepared to defend our company and our customers against lies and those who spread them

00:40:41.760 get the facts. So in other words, they're going to take you to court if you tell a lie about their

00:40:46.800 company. Now, if I were Dominion, I would do this. This is the right play. So from a business

00:40:55.900 perspective, warning people that if they get too far over their skis and accuse them of something

00:41:01.460 without proof, they're going to be in a lot of trouble. Basically, they're going to be broke.

00:41:07.840 They'll break you. So I want to be as careful as I can in saying this. I'm not personally aware of any

00:41:15.240 specific problems with Dominion or other voting machines. At the end of the election,

00:41:24.080 even if there are very reliable sounding claims, I won't know. Because I guarantee you that 95% of

00:41:32.560 the claims of election fraud will be fake. They will be fake. And indeed, many of the ones that you

00:41:39.380 already have seen and already believe are credible, probably a lot of them are fake. I don't know if

00:41:46.720 all of them are, but probably the majority. So keep these two things in mind. You will never probably

00:41:55.380 know, probably never know if any specific claim was valid, either because the courts dragged their

00:42:03.340 feed or somebody lost the records or whoops, we forgot to make a backup. You know, all the things

00:42:10.120 that you've seen every day. You're seeing the same thing every day. It's the same play. Oh, we lost

00:42:15.600 that. Oh, that record is wrong. Oh, the videotape got overwritten. So it seems unlikely that if there

00:42:22.560 were any irregularities, that it would be solved in any organized way. I don't think we have a system

00:42:29.180 that could solve things in time, even if they were surfaced. But I don't believe that the voting

00:42:34.840 machines need to be a part of any cheating. Because we have overseas ballots coming in without ID 0.89

00:42:41.840 requirements, and they can email their ballot. You can email a vote from overseas without proving

00:42:49.140 you're overseas. Now, let's say a whole bunch of people's just speculating again. Imagine a whole

00:42:55.700 bunch of people who voted illegally overseas. How long would it take to catch them and verify 0.90

00:43:03.360 that they were all illegal votes? Well, let me tell you how that would go. Well, these votes came

00:43:10.200 from lots of different sources, and we're following up as hard as we can, but it's going to take some

00:43:15.100 time. Well, I mean, you only have until January 6th. I know, I know, but well, we're trying as hard as

00:43:23.600 we can, but it turns out the people we need to talk to are on a two-week vacation. Oh, but they're

00:43:30.000 coming back, right? It's just because of Christmas? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. So now you've studied all

00:43:35.960 the people in Europe that voted? No, no, no. Oh, my God. There were millions of them. How are we going to

00:43:42.100 call millions of people in just a few weeks with all the vacations and Christmas and everything?

00:43:47.140 And then we'll say, but you need to. You need to, because if you don't, we won't know who won,

00:43:52.900 but we don't have time. Well, we're taking this to the courts, and the court says, well, what do you

00:43:58.400 got? Well, we found so far 2,500 people who voted overseas that are totally not eligible to vote.

00:44:07.720 And then the court will say, well, what was the margin of victory? Well, the margin of victory

00:44:14.040 was 500,000 people. So basically, what you're giving me is something that wouldn't change the

00:44:20.460 result. Yeah, yeah, but we think there's a lot of it. But you've only found 2,500. Yeah, yeah,

00:44:28.140 but we don't have time, because there were millions that we need to check, and you'd have to, you know,

00:44:33.120 catch up to them. You'd have to compare their vote. You'd have to find out if they're real. You'd have

00:44:38.040 to visit them in person to find out if they're even real people, check their IDs. And then the

00:44:44.580 court says, you know what? I can't deal with this, because you haven't shown me it would change the

00:44:50.680 result, and the courts don't like to get involved if no result is going to be changed. You don't have

00:44:56.560 a perp. You've just got names in Europe, and that's not my jurisdiction. And the court is going

00:45:04.680 to say, I got nothing. I can't help you. So the only thing you need to do to get away with cheating

00:45:12.780 is to have a system which is sufficiently distributed that if anybody looked into it,

00:45:19.860 and they found the cheating, and they found it, they wouldn't be able to find enough in time

00:45:27.160 to change anything. And then once the new administration's in power, what do they do?

00:45:33.420 They put their attorney general in charge, and then the attorney general says, I think all the

00:45:38.680 claims of election interference are overblown. Let's leave that alone. There is no way

00:45:46.820 to reverse this. If, in fact, and again, this is just a worry. It's not something I have proof of.

00:45:56.020 But if we get a whole bunch of suspicious votes from overseas, there's no way to stop it.

00:46:03.960 It's a perfect cheat, and we see it in advance. We see it in advance. Now, how could we ever have

00:46:12.000 a real election under our current circumstance? Where one candidate has been likened to

00:46:19.240 Hitler so many times, and people literally believe he's going to steal your democracy.

00:46:27.520 And the only thing you have to do, according to their view of things, to save things,

00:46:32.740 is to email, to email a vote that you're not allowed to make. How many people would say,

00:46:42.040 well, if I can save the world, I guess I can send a fake email? I don't know. Not much of an election

00:46:49.780 this time. Well, Trump went to McDonald's, you all know. Some people said, oh, it's fake because

00:46:56.600 all the cars were vetted, and they even trained for the interaction. Well, of course, they're vetted.

00:47:04.860 The president said, at least two assassination attempts. Of course, they made sure that the

00:47:10.820 cars that went by the windows were not ordinary customers. The only thing they got was french fries.

00:47:17.760 They weren't even real orders, because if they wanted more than french fries, all they got was

00:47:21.900 from Trump was a bag of french fries. But he did it perfectly. Nobody can do that better than Trump.

00:47:30.620 He does his, he can chatter with everybody. He just made it look comfortable and fun and

00:47:36.020 kind of ironic and iconic and just everything that Trump does. It was sort of bringing together all the

00:47:43.960 best of. You know, if there's any best thing he does, it's that. It's interacting with ordinary people

00:47:50.680 in a way that is interesting to people watching. I mean, nobody does that better. So who knows if

00:47:57.100 it changes any votes, but it's certainly made him look good and helped his, I think he won the day.

00:48:03.620 You know, they're talking about winning each day in politics. He won that day. But you do have to ask,

00:48:10.400 what did RFK Jr. and Nicole Shanahan think about Trump boosting fast food at McDonald's?

00:48:17.660 And that's a good question. Politically, I think it was brilliant. Medically, we can do better.

00:48:30.240 All right, I'm going to anger you on this 60 minutes thing. As you know, 60 minutes edited at least one

00:48:39.700 answer from Kamala Harris to make it less word salad-y and more coherent. And people said, you dirty 60 1.00

00:48:50.760 minutes, you're in the bag for Kamala Harris. You're not allowed to edit it. Show us that complete,

00:48:56.700 complete unedited document so we can see how badly you edited it. All right. What I'm supposed to tell you

00:49:05.280 is that 60 minutes is influencing the election and their fake news and everything else. I don't see

00:49:15.900 it. So let me tell you something that most of you didn't know when you read the story.

00:49:23.460 For the big publications where there is editing, editing for time, and that would include a print

00:49:29.960 story where they don't want the print story to be as big as a book. So it's got to be smaller.

00:49:38.640 And certainly if it's televised and has to fit a certain time, then it's always edited. Now, I have been

00:49:45.700 the subject of many, many interviews, hundreds, thousands, at least many hundreds. I don't know how many

00:49:54.340 over my career. And I can tell you that the most typical and normal thing is that they will edit

00:50:00.880 your comments. And they edit them if your comment is sort of, it goes on a little bit, but there's a

00:50:08.620 bit of it that says the core part. It's very common that they'll cut out the part where you just run on

00:50:15.500 a little bit long and they'll keep the part where you summarized it and said it just right.

00:50:20.380 Here's why they do that. It's better to watch. As a viewer, you would appreciate it because you

00:50:29.620 didn't need the word salad. You just needed the summary or the part that said it right.

00:50:34.920 This is a very ordinary thing. So when 60 Minutes admitted that they edited one for tightness,

00:50:43.160 I looked at it and I said to myself, did they get rid of something that was like the opposite of what

00:50:48.900 she said? Because if they changed it from saying yes to no, well, I mean, that's almost a crime,

00:50:56.220 isn't it? But if they changed it from yes to hell yes, or yes to yes, but just the words are changed,

00:51:05.000 that's just what they always do. That's actually normal. So I'm going to be a contrarian on this,

00:51:12.180 having been the subject of many edited interviews. And I will tell you that if the entity that is

00:51:20.800 doing the editing is doing a hit piece, such as Bloomberg did on me once during 2016, I think,

00:51:28.560 their edits of me were to make me look bad. When I did the Playboy interview back when Playboy was a

00:51:37.260 much bigger deal back in the 90s, I was a featured interview in the Playboy interview. And when I read

00:51:43.420 the interview, I barely recognized my own speech. It was so heavily edited that if you played my actual

00:51:53.020 tape next to the, you know, to the written part, you would be shocked how heavily edited it was. But

00:52:01.020 did I complain? I did not. Do you know why I didn't complain? Because they edited it to make me

00:52:07.740 look smarter. They simply, they kept the places where I said exactly the right thing, just the right

00:52:15.120 way. And maybe if I, you know, coughed or hummed or said something twice when I only needed to say it

00:52:23.260 once, they just fixed it. So when I read my own interview, I remember thinking, oh my God,

00:52:29.600 did they make me look smarter than I actually am. That's normal. Now the, the, the Playboy

00:52:36.520 interviews are not meant to make anybody look bad. They don't do, they don't do hit pieces.

00:52:40.680 They do pieces that you want to read. So it'll be about somebody that you wanted to read about.

00:52:47.200 It'll be mostly positive things. So when you see this 60 minute interview and you see the edit,

00:52:54.000 you don't know if they were acting in a malicious way. The only thing you can know for sure is that

00:53:04.620 they acted in a typical way, the way any other media would have acted in that same situation.

00:53:10.460 Now, since Harris is known for her word salad and she's running for president, that the word salad 1.00

00:53:19.300 or the lack of it is really important in this context. So in this context, I do think it's a

00:53:26.600 little illegitimate to cut it out. But if you imagine that what was going on is that the people

00:53:34.440 who do the normal jobs, did the normal jobs, there's somebody whose job it is to edit. If the

00:53:41.020 editor simply edited the way they always edit without even thinking about it, without thinking

00:53:45.980 about any bias or really just not thinking about anything except being a good editor, it would have

00:53:51.560 looked just like this. So that's the problem. You can't tell if somebody was trying to pull a trick

00:53:58.760 on you because whether they were or whether they're not, it would look the same. It would look like

00:54:04.280 they fixed it to make her look smart because it's sort of what they do. They do it to me. They do it,

00:54:09.980 you know, if they liked me, they would do it to me. So you can certainly say that it's not ideal,

00:54:15.940 but to say that 60 minutes was necessarily glaringly and obviously biased is not an evidence.

00:54:24.600 That is not an evidence. It's certainly possible. It's possible that they edited it with an eye

00:54:30.500 toward making her get elected. Very possible, but it's not an evidence. So I can't go there with you.

00:54:39.880 All right.

00:54:45.780 Here's another fake news. I hate to be defending Kamala Harris against fake news, but there's another

00:54:51.280 one. So she was doing an event, talking to an audience and some heckler came in and the heckler

00:54:57.440 said something along the lines of, you know, he started yelling, what about Israel's genocide?

00:55:02.760 Now, genocide is the word chosen by the heckler, right? What about Israel's genocide? What about 19,000

00:55:09.420 children dead? Now he said more than those two sentences, but among them were Israel's genocide.

00:55:17.780 That's his take on it. And 19,000 children dead. Now security immediately had the guy taken out

00:55:26.520 and then Kamala Harris's comment immediately after he's out, she said, quote, what he is talking about

00:55:33.500 is real and I respect his voice. So that guy reported as that she was sort of in favor of genocide. 0.96

00:55:43.420 Genocide. Come on. Really? Or they should know not she was in favor of genocide, but that she was

00:55:55.240 blaming Israel for genocide. I'm sorry. So forget the first thing I said. She's being blamed

00:56:01.060 for accusing Israel of genocide because she said of what the protester said, that that is real and I

00:56:10.880 respect his voice. Okay. If Trump had been in this situation, here's what I would say. He's obviously

00:56:19.400 not talking about the genocide interpretation. He's talking about the fact that a bunch of people

00:56:25.460 are getting killed and good leadership could end that faster. So yes, it's real that people are

00:56:31.400 getting killed. A lot of them are children and everybody would like to end that faster. It doesn't

00:56:36.600 mean she agreed with the characterization of genocide. And by the way, I don't know if she

00:56:41.860 does. So if you have some other source where she has said, oh, it's genocide, then I would revise my

00:56:49.740 opinion. But to me, she did not embrace everything the guy said. I think she was embracing the fact

00:56:56.700 that people are getting killed and a lot of them are, you know, innocents and children.

00:57:01.600 So I don't think I want to get into a question about what is genocide and what is not, because

00:57:10.180 we're all talking about the same thing. I feel like you enter stupidville if you're looking at the 0.88

00:57:18.860 same thing, that everybody's seeing the same thing, and you're arguing about the definition of it. 0.94

00:57:23.500 Why? That's like trans. When I see people arguing about whether somebody is 0.98

00:57:31.640 really a man or really a woman, I say, wait a minute, don't you both agree completely on the

00:57:38.640 facts of this case? You both agree that a person was born in one gender. You both agree that the

00:57:45.340 person's preference is the different gender. You both agree that they're identifying as the different 0.71

00:57:51.000 gender. Why are we talking about definitions? Because we both are looking at exactly the same

00:57:58.140 facts. And yet we found a way to argue about it. Now, you could argue about what rights somebody has

00:58:07.020 in the trans situation, and that's a good argument. We need to figure that out. But you shouldn't be 1.00

00:58:13.540 arguing about whether or not they are or are not a woman, because you're both looking at exactly the

00:58:17.920 same set of facts, and you don't disagree with them at all. You know that somebody is calling

00:58:22.360 themselves a woman, and you know that maybe you don't like it. So there's nothing else to say. 0.61

00:58:30.180 But you can talk about what rights people have. That makes sense. Anyway, so talking about whether

00:58:35.760 Israel is doing a genocide or they're just in a defensive war, why does the labeling make it

00:58:43.120 different? Do fewer people get killed if you change the word for it? Are you more in favor of it if you

00:58:51.160 change the word for it? Are you more against it because you change the word you're using? Every

00:58:56.440 single one of us knows that Israel is trying to kill all of the Hamas fighters. It would be to their 0.90

00:59:04.400 advantage. Israel is to kill the fewest number of non-combatants. But sometimes, well, often, 0.99

00:59:13.220 people, the non-combatants are going to die. So what part are we arguing about? It's just not even

00:59:18.940 worth having a conversation about what the word is, if we're both saying exactly the same stuff.

00:59:27.160 Anyway, the biggest hoax of this election, I'm going to call it. The biggest hoax and the biggest

00:59:34.060 failure of the Republicans in messaging is the, quote, turn down border bill. Now, one of the

00:59:41.760 reasons I say that Byron Donalds is sort of a superstar among Republicans is that every time this

00:59:49.480 topic comes up, he goes to X and he posts, I think, nine bullet points of why that border bill was

00:59:57.080 not what they said it was. Now, that's the right answer. Every single time, here's nine reasons that was a

01:00:05.700 fake. If all you can do is say, oh, but, but, but, uh, uh, Trump was better at the border, but we, we had a

01:00:15.500 border bill that would have fixed everything and Trump turned it down for politics. Oh, oh, but, but, but it was

01:00:24.300 better, better during Trump. Well, I know, I know, but it would have been great if we had a border bill

01:00:32.500 and he backed it. Instead, he turned it down for political reasons. Oh, oh, but, but, oh, the border

01:00:39.760 was better under Trump. And it just lets the hoax just sit there. The border bill was a hoax. It was,

01:00:48.820 um, even so Brett Baer even failed on this because you'll get talked over if you try to do it.

01:00:56.880 So remember when, uh, Harris said during the Brett Baer, Baer interview said that, uh, but we tried

01:01:03.760 to get this border bill passed and Brett interrupted her, which didn't work out. He said, yes, ma'am.

01:01:09.640 It was called the U S citizenship act of 2021. Um, and then Baer described it as essentially a pathway

01:01:16.640 to citizenship. The main point of the bill was to take the things that we want to stop and are

01:01:25.720 currently illegal, which is people coming into the country illegally and simply make it legal.

01:01:32.400 It wasn't stopping it. It was just changing the word for it. So it'd be legal. It's the opposite of

01:01:38.360 stopping. It's encouraging. So here's how, if you didn't know the nine bullet points that were a

01:01:47.600 problem, you should say it was a pathway to citizenship bill primarily. And it was doing

01:01:53.600 the opposite of what we wanted. What we wanted to do is to stop it and also stop the incentive for it

01:02:00.380 and also ship back some number of people. What the bill would do is let people stay here, 0.84

01:02:07.600 make it legal and increase the incentive for more of them to come because they see it works out.

01:02:13.620 So the, the, the fact that Republicans completely botched the messaging and argument on this border

01:02:21.240 bill thing, I don't think there's a single Democrat who knows what I just told you. I'll bet none.

01:02:27.920 I'll bet not a single Democrat has ever heard that the border bill was,

01:02:32.760 was really the opposite of preventing people. It was, it was designed to make it faster to process

01:02:39.620 people in. I don't write about that, right? When they said it was going to, it was going to increase

01:02:45.460 the number of border people working. It wasn't increasing the number of people shipping people

01:02:51.040 back. It was processing the number of people stamping papers to let them in. It was literally

01:02:57.920 to increase the number of people coming in and it would, it would make legal a number of entrants

01:03:04.840 like 1.8 million. What was the number? 1.8 million or something. There was some number of

01:03:10.160 annual entrance that was way above what Republicans think is okay. That was going to be codified into law.

01:03:19.060 So it was basically going to codify the, all the things we want to go away. It was going to simply

01:03:26.020 make legal and boost all the bad things, according to Republicans. Again, this is, would be based on

01:03:33.400 their argument. So the fact that that hoax got all the way to two days, two weeks before election.

01:03:40.020 And I saw, honestly, I only saw Byron Donalds do a good job of trying to defeat it, but he's one

01:03:47.440 person. You know, there's not much he can do as one person, but he's the only A plus. I'm giving out

01:03:54.180 one A plus and everybody else failed. Honestly, just failed. Anyway, so as you know, Elon Musk is giving

01:04:05.020 away a million dollars per day to some lucky person who signs a, he's got some kind of a petition he's

01:04:12.020 taking around when he's giving these talks in Pennsylvania. And if you sign the petition saying

01:04:17.520 that you favor free speech and gun rights and basically the constitution, you could be eligible

01:04:25.780 to get a million dollars. Now, the governor has threatened to launch a criminal investigation

01:04:32.100 here's what I know, because I used to work for a big corporation. And every now and then one of us

01:04:41.100 would have the brilliant idea that we can increase sales with some kind of a contest. And no matter

01:04:47.600 what kind of contest we came up with, do you know why we didn't do it? We could never get it past a

01:04:53.940 lawyer. Try this in your company. If you work for a big company, your fortune 500 company,

01:05:00.360 go to your boss and suggest a contest for your customers that somebody will win something if

01:05:07.760 they're one of the lucky people. See what your lawyer says about that. They're going to slap you

01:05:12.880 down so fast. And do you know why? There are a whole bunch of different state regulatory restrictions

01:05:23.100 on contests. And the reason is contests are ways that people get ripped off. So fake contests are

01:05:30.740 kind of a classic scam. So in order to make sure you're not a fake contest, you got to do a number of

01:05:37.720 things. If must didn't do the things, you know, it would be different in each state, then there's some

01:05:47.900 small legal liability, not jail time, but probably some, I don't know, maybe some kind of a fine or

01:05:54.340 something. So let me give you an example. If you want to run a contest in California, and unless the

01:06:01.540 law changed, this is what it used to be, you would have to show that you held the money. Let's say it's

01:06:07.520 money that you're going to win in escrow. So you can't just say, I will pay you a million. You have to

01:06:14.600 the millions sitting there in a defined account that is free from any other use, can't be used for

01:06:22.000 anything except paying off the winner. And that's how you make sure it's not a scam. You don't get

01:06:27.840 to say, I will pay you. You got to say, here's my money. It's sitting here. It's in this protected

01:06:32.680 account. It cannot be used for any other purpose. This is your money. Now, do you think that Musk needs

01:06:39.820 to do that? Well, no, because everybody knows that Musk will pay. There's nobody who thinks he's not

01:06:48.320 going to pay. So you don't really need it, but it might be a law. Now, the law in Pennsylvania would

01:06:54.340 be different than California. But if that's a law, and if he decided to skip it, and I don't know if

01:07:01.340 either of those are true, then there would be some minor, totally unimportant violation of a minor

01:07:09.340 law, I guess. But I think there are other things like that. There are a few other hoops you have to

01:07:18.140 jump through. So he might have some trouble. And of course, if you're worrying about money from

01:07:24.500 billionaires going into politics and changing something, you got to talk about the Soros family.

01:07:30.740 And I just saw another picture of Alex Soros with like demon eyes. I don't know. Is it just me?

01:07:40.240 I'm seeing a lot of the people that I call the bad guys, you know, the people who seem to be on the

01:07:44.780 same team of bad actors on the Democrat side. The number of them that have crazy eyes is really hard to 0.91

01:07:53.340 ignore. And it could be just my, my bias. Maybe I'm just seeing them as having crazy eyes when they

01:08:03.220 don't. But wow, a lot of them have crazy eyes. Anyway, Der Spiegel, which is might be the biggest 0.93

01:08:11.460 publication in Germany, has Musk on the cover, and it calls him enemy number two, and shows some of his

01:08:19.420 skin being removed and underneath it is Trump. In other words, they're basically setting him up for

01:08:26.400 assassination, which Elon Musk noticed. And he said, with their relentless hit pieces, legacy mainstream

01:08:33.140 media are actively encouraging the assassination of Trump and now me. Is that an exaggeration?

01:08:39.920 No, it's not. That is not an exaggeration. To me, it seems really clear that somebody behind the media

01:08:53.200 and maybe just the media themselves making their own decisions are creating a situation that makes it very

01:08:59.760 likely that Trump is in trouble. And so is Musk. We hope their security is excellent.

01:09:04.820 Meanwhile, Politico has an article priming you for the steal. Now, when I say priming you for the

01:09:13.280 steal in the election, I don't mean that I have proof of a steal. What I mean is, if everything looks

01:09:19.720 like they're setting you up to steal it, I wouldn't ignore that. Now, what you would expect is, first of

01:09:25.980 all, you'd have some fake polls, the ones you trust the least, would show that the election is close.

01:09:31.860 Washington Post. Done. The other thing you'd have is you'd have people warning you in advance

01:09:39.200 what happens if there's a fair win for Harris, but those evil, evil Republicans, and especially that 0.99

01:09:48.300 darn old president, ex-president Trump, if he tries to say that that wasn't a good election, 0.98

01:09:54.180 they want you to know that that is trouble and needs to be dealt with. And by the way, 0.99

01:10:00.480 the thing you shouldn't think about is whether or not the election was rigged. I would like you to

01:10:05.360 not think about whether the election is rigged. I'd like you to think past that to how we will

01:10:10.560 punish the people who said it was rigged. The election hasn't happened yet, and they're already

01:10:18.000 talking about how they're going to punish you for claiming it was rigged. Dominion, as I already told

01:10:23.920 you, has now said publicly, if you blame their machines, you're going to be destroyed. Whether

01:10:30.860 you're right or wrong won't be relevant. You will be law fared just because it's real expensive to go

01:10:36.300 to court. And now you've got Politico setting you up to say, if he loses, Trump, here's how he might

01:10:46.800 try to overturn the 2024 election and install himself in the White House. Do you see that word

01:10:53.240 install? Here's how they could have written it. If the election looks sketchy, here's what Trump might

01:11:00.780 do to see if he can get a better audit or a little clarity on who won. Wouldn't that be fair? Is that an

01:11:08.060 accurate way to say it? No, they use the word install. It's a dictator word. So they're already

01:11:14.480 creating Politico, one of the more important political outlets, is now setting us up to think

01:11:21.860 past whether the election is real, and all the way to how to punish the people who say it's not real.

01:11:30.620 Am I supposed to ignore that? I mean, that seems pretty clear signal of bad things ahead. Very bad.

01:11:39.940 All right. But here's how I would have written that article. I would have said the risk of

01:11:47.560 shenanigans goes both ways. It is not a risk of what happens if Trump loses and claims he won.

01:11:54.280 It is a problem that no matter who wins, the other side is going to say that it was fixed. Am I right?

01:12:02.780 It doesn't matter which side wins. They're both going to say it was fixed. We know that from 2016,

01:12:07.700 very clearly, it's the same people, the same people like Hillary Clinton and Raskin and all those people

01:12:15.120 will say it was rigged if Trump wins. So why aren't we talking about that? It works both ways and he's

01:12:21.820 ahead in the polls, the real ones. So what happens if Trump wins and Harris tries to install herself

01:12:30.040 anyway? Isn't that a fair question? But no. And we know that Jamie Raskin is already talking about if

01:12:38.260 Trump wins, they're going to try to not certify the election and install Harris instead. They're saying

01:12:45.940 it out loud, and yet it didn't make it into the story. Let's just hold that in your mind.

01:12:53.260 The Politico knows that Raskin has said out loud in public that if Trump wins, they have a plan to

01:13:02.100 remove him from office and install Harris. Amazingly. And yet the story is about what

01:13:10.960 would happen if Trump makes that claim. I mean, the level of shenanigans is, I've never seen anything

01:13:19.400 like this. Well, let's talk about Israel. I told you there's some fog of war, a lack of clarity about

01:13:28.320 whether Netanyahu's home was actually attacked by Hezbollah. And the current reporting says there

01:13:37.300 were three missiles that went toward his home. Two of them got knocked down and one of them created

01:13:44.640 minor damage. But the Netanyahu family had not been there for several days. So there was not bodily

01:13:52.180 risk, at least on that day. Now, remember, it's still fog of war. Is this true? Is it true that three 0.64

01:14:03.200 missiles were sent from Hezbollah and, you know, likely at Netanyahu as being the target? Is it true?

01:14:11.680 I don't know. How would you know? Do you believe stories that come from war zones in the middle of

01:14:18.660 a war? If you believe this story, that's a mistake. Is the story true? It might be. I mean, it totally 0.97

01:14:28.740 might be. There's nothing to rule it out. But is it true? I would act like you don't know one way or

01:14:37.480 the other. I would say it's a coin flip at best. Because, and I think I've told you this before,

01:14:45.380 in the context of self-defense and Israel's operating in self-defense, as is the others

01:14:53.640 would say they're in self-defense too, I suppose. But if you're operating in self-defense, you can lie

01:14:57.940 what the hell you want. It's self-defense. If lying gives you any advantage when trying to defend

01:15:07.060 yourself, absolutely. Absolutely. If you're my ally, and I heard that you lied in the context of

01:15:14.460 defending yourself, I'm going to pat you on the back and say, that was a good lie. Good. Well done there.

01:15:20.720 You protected yourself, just like I want my allies to do. So I don't care. Well, I don't really care

01:15:27.420 if it's true. I care if it works. So in terms of analyzing, I'll say, well, here's what it did.

01:15:37.000 It just gave Israel permission to take out the leadership of Iran. So that's the only story. 0.59

01:15:45.520 Now, they've already taken out the leadership of Hezbollah and gone down one or two levels of

01:15:51.900 leadership. The leadership that matters is sitting in Iran. Now, until this, I would have said that if

01:16:02.040 they had taken out the leadership of Iran, they would have gone too far. Because you couldn't look 0.65

01:16:08.100 as something that was the equivalent. But now that there is a narrative, might be true, might not

01:16:15.980 be true. But the narrative is that the proxy of Iran, which you assume would not do such a thing

01:16:24.040 without permission from the bosses, which would be Iran, have tried to take out the head of Israel.

01:16:29.580 So this is a free pass. If Israel decides to take out the leadership of Iran, they're going to say,

01:16:39.640 you started it. And we're not going to know the difference, whether they started it or not.

01:16:45.540 In my opinion, Iran would be insane to have tried to take out Netanyahu.

01:16:51.700 So if you told me that Hezbollah tried to do it and it made Iran unhappy, that would be very 0.95

01:17:00.920 believable. Because the Hezbollah people are taking orders, but maybe not on every missile. 0.99

01:17:08.020 You know, maybe they have sort of general orders and you've got some rogues and maybe the rogues

01:17:12.480 thought, oh, we'll end the war by taking care of Netanyahu. So it's entirely possible that Hezbollah 1.00

01:17:19.120 tried to take out Netanyahu. It's entirely possible that they did it with the approval and

01:17:24.700 even maybe help by the Iranian leadership. But it's also entirely possible that Hezbollah really

01:17:32.020 fucked up and they thought they were doing something maybe that they wanted to do. And 0.97

01:17:36.500 maybe they thought Iran would like it if it worked. But I don't believe that the Iranian leadership

01:17:44.540 has ever shown enough stupidity that they would do that. Because they just opened up a doorway that 1.00

01:17:54.760 they did not need to open up. Because the war would not have stopped if Netanyahu got killed.

01:18:02.700 It wouldn't have stopped. It might have gotten worse. So how in the world could Iran have benefited 1.00

01:18:09.040 by taking out Netanyahu? That's the question you have to ask. But we will never know the truth of

01:18:15.860 this. Probably. We'll never know the truth. We'll never know if Iran said, yes, take out Netanyahu.

01:18:22.500 We'll never know if Hezbollah did it and Iran was mad at them for doing it. We'll never know if these 0.75

01:18:29.180 missiles really were not that close to Netanyahu's house, but they maybe exaggerated it so it sounded like

01:18:36.520 it was more dangerous. We'll never know. Because Israel has every right to lie in self-defense. 0.98

01:18:43.340 As we all do. And it's not a crime. It's not immoral. It's not unethical. It's nothing you need

01:18:50.200 to apologize for if you did it. So I don't believe the story entirely, but I don't disbelieve it. I just

01:18:58.380 don't have any way to know it's true or not true. The only thing I know for sure is that the

01:19:04.200 option of taking out Iran's leadership is now completely open. And that's never been the case

01:19:11.460 before. Now, would taking out Iran's leadership make things better or worse? No idea. I'm pretty 0.97

01:19:19.880 sure it's a good idea to take out the leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah. That feels like you don't

01:19:25.520 have to be a military genius to know that that's a good idea. But the head of an actual, you know,

01:19:32.740 UN state? I don't know. I don't know. I wouldn't be surprised if Israel gets a clean shot if they take 1.00

01:19:45.420 it. Don't be surprised. I'd be surprised if it happens before election, unless they wanted to

01:19:52.900 use the election to say, you guys are all too distracted. And they wouldn't want to change

01:20:00.360 the election outcome. So I don't think Israel would want to change America's outcome by some,

01:20:07.760 you know, action in the next two weeks, because they would get blamed for it. They'd say, you knew,

01:20:13.600 you knew if you did or didn't do this. Yeah. So I think Israel will not take out the leadership of

01:20:26.600 Iran before our election. But once our election happens, we're still not going to have a president,

01:20:33.620 right? Even if we think we elected one, we're not going to have a president.

01:20:37.600 Because it'll take time to count and we'll be disagreeing and everybody will say the other

01:20:45.580 side cheated and it'll be in court and everything else. So between the election day and the actual

01:20:52.540 day, if we ever decide who actually is president, that's probably where Israel would want to make a 0.82

01:20:58.540 move. Because Trump can say, I wasn't president, so I couldn't stop it. Nobody will think Biden could

01:21:06.620 have stopped it. And they'll say the vice president wasn't in charge. So we're entering a period where

01:21:13.040 basically nobody's going to be in charge. And we know it. And Israel knows it too. So if I were

01:21:19.740 Israel, and again, this is not a recommendation, because I'm no war planning expert. But it seems the

01:21:27.680 most rational time to do it would be between election day and January 6. I hate to say it. But if it's going

01:21:35.500 to happen, that would be the time to do it. So that is what I got for today. Do you notice I have

01:21:45.120 something behind me? I'm going to make probably a separate video on this, but people always ask me,

01:21:54.460 Scott, I know somebody who's a fan of Dilbert or a fan of your other work, and I want to know what

01:22:01.540 gift to buy them for Christmas. And so I thought I'd answer that. If your friend is a Dilbert fan,

01:22:09.460 and they don't care about politics or fixing their career or anything like that, they just like the

01:22:14.680 jokes, then they should get the 2025 Dilbert calendar, which is now reissued. It was discontinued

01:22:21.340 last year. But now it's reissued, made in America, twice the comics. It's got the traditional

01:22:27.640 comics that you always see on the front pages. But on the backs of every page is the Dilbert

01:22:35.700 Reborn comic that is only available normally to subscribers. And so you'll get twice as many

01:22:43.340 comics as ever. The only place you can buy this is at the link at Dilbert.com. It is not going to be

01:22:49.680 on any other online or brick and mortar store. The only place you get it, go to Dilbert.com and get

01:22:58.480 the link. If you buy it as a pre-sale, it's good for me. So if you like me, buy it now. Don't wait

01:23:06.560 till December 15th because they get printed on demand the way we're making them. So you don't want to run

01:23:13.200 out by waiting too long. And the sooner you do it, the better it is for me. If you know somebody

01:23:20.600 that you want to give a gift to who's sort of a brainy, big thinker, philosophy, sci-fi kind of

01:23:26.860 person, they will love the newly issued God's Debris, which is now three separate works. It's God's

01:23:35.220 Debris, which used to be its own book. It is the sequel as well, also now in the same book,

01:23:40.620 The Religion War, very hard to find the sequel. And I've added a short story called Lucky House.

01:23:48.000 Lucky House rounds out the trilogy. And a number of people tell me this is the best book they've

01:23:54.300 ever read in their life. That's a real thing. All the time, people tell me it's the best book they've

01:24:02.700 ever read in their life. Now, that was even the first God's Debris people have been telling me that.

01:24:07.340 So not every person is going to like every book, but this is a real good bet. It'll make your brain

01:24:14.340 spin around in your head. Wynn Bigley is the book I wrote about Trump's 2016 run and the influence he

01:24:21.940 used. So if you want to give a book to somebody that will help them be more successful and happy,

01:24:27.260 I've got three books. One will teach you persuasion in the context of how Trump used it,

01:24:32.440 but it's all stuff you can use. You could use it immediately. Just read it and you'll know how to do it.

01:24:36.780 This is the second edition. So it's a little bit updated. If you've already read the first one,

01:24:44.280 you don't need to read the second one because it's just, you know, it's just punched up a little

01:24:48.780 bit. Likewise, my book from 2013, How to Fail Almost Everything and Still Win Big, is the still the OG

01:24:56.200 book in the success domain, career or personal. And this is the book that's influenced a whole bunch

01:25:03.580 of other books. So you'll see the work from this book in lots of popular books, and you might not

01:25:10.720 recognize where it came from. But if you want to see the original work that teaches about systems over

01:25:17.000 goals and building talent stacks and chasing your, what do you call it, your joy or something,

01:25:30.540 it's not so good. Just build yourself a talent stack. You'll be fine. And then more recently,

01:25:36.540 and this is the first edition that came out in the last year, Reframe Your Brain will teach you

01:25:43.400 how to think yourself into a happier and more productive life without doing any work at all.

01:25:49.480 All you have to do is read the various reframes in the book. Some won't apply to you. Doesn't matter.

01:25:56.400 But the ones that do apply to you, you might find them completely spinning your thoughts around

01:26:01.420 to the point where things that were big problems just go away. And this can fix problems in your

01:26:07.600 career plan, your mental health, your physical health, your social life. Basically, every part of

01:26:16.400 your life has at least one reframe, which is just a simple way to look at something differently

01:26:23.120 that changes everything about it. So if you want a persuasion, you want a plan for success

01:26:29.620 professionally or personally, and you want to know how to change your brain to get the best result,

01:26:34.760 I've got three books that I guarantee you people love. They really love these books. So entertainment

01:26:42.040 on the left, fix your life on the right. And there you are. All right. I'm going to talk to the people

01:26:48.800 who are subscribers on Locals privately. The rest of you, thanks for joining. I appreciate you. Bye for now.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - October 21, 2024

Episode 2635 CWSA 10⧸21⧸24

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