Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2721 CWSA 01⧸15⧸25

00:00:00.000 favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine hit of

00:00:05.600 the day the thing that makes everything better except fires it's called the simultaneous sip

00:00:10.960 and it happens now go i am now hydrated enough to get through the entire show

00:00:22.480 so let's get going so i've got a friend who on almost every other contact tries to tell me

00:00:35.040 uh that he's he's figured out something that elon musk is doing that's dumb

00:00:42.000 and i say you know he's got five of the most important businesses in the world he's solving

00:00:50.000 problems he's going to mars i don't know if he's really dumb i i feel like maybe he doesn't have

00:00:56.880 you know the the mental problems you think now my friend is has a net worth of zero

00:01:06.080 and i don't want to say you know you have a net worth of zero and you're giving advice to the

00:01:10.960 richest man in the world and none of it looked like luck to me it looked like a skill so maybe you

00:01:17.360 should take that into consideration that he might know a little bit more than you

00:01:24.640 and then today i saw a post by elon musk and i thought hmm i'm gonna have to go in there and correct

00:01:29.840 his thinking

00:01:34.160 apparently i'm just i'm just an idiot so that do you know how absurd it is to say hmm

00:01:42.080 elon musk has an opinion but i'm so much smarter watch me fix it for him but that's what i'm going

00:01:49.120 to do but only because it's a very special case i wouldn't do i wouldn't do this about engineering or

00:01:55.440 business or or most things so it's a very special case here's the situation uh dr peter diamandis on x

00:02:06.320 he had a post in which he led off by saying sugar is poison and then you know he did a thread on here's

00:02:12.080 why sugar is poison now he didn't make that up that's the title of the book and you're all aware that

00:02:19.280 i often say alcohol is poison now elon musk weighed in on the statement that sugar is poison and he said

00:02:26.960 um no cyanide and arsenic are poisons whereas sugar is edible you don't see a pile of bodies outside a

00:02:34.960 candy store lmao and then elon said that said sugar should only be eaten occasionally and in small

00:02:43.840 quantities now he's not technically wrong right it it's sugar is not actually a poison like literally

00:02:53.280 it's not um and sugar is edible and if you're going to eat it small amount would be you know

00:03:00.960 not the worst thing that ever happened to you but uh being the being the reframe guy i i couldn't let it

00:03:09.840 stand so i don't know what the comments are going to be but i weighed in and i said uh reframes need not

00:03:18.560 be literal most of the good ones are not literal and then i noted i wrote the book on that reframe

00:03:25.280 your brain a reframe is a brain hack it gives you the ability to make better decisions without

00:03:31.040 changing the data so it's just a trick it's not supposed to be literal and in fact being literal

00:03:37.440 doesn't help it a bit there's no advantage to being literal you want it to work you don't want it to be

00:03:44.800 accurate um so i pointed out that uh if the goal is to minimize but not eliminate sugar calling it a

00:03:53.840 poison is a perfect reframe and but then i had to uh acknowledge because i think i learned something in

00:04:02.320 this exchange why would elon musk clearly and unambiguously one of the smartest people in

00:04:10.080 you know all of our experiences not understand a simple reframe is not meant to be literal

00:04:17.600 how's that possible well um i don't know the exact answer but i i ended with this statement i said i

00:04:25.680 acknowledge that departing from the literal doesn't work for every brain now this this should not be

00:04:32.640 taken as any kind of an insult to anybody i've made this mistake before which is if i mentioned

00:04:39.040 somebody's on the spectrum if i say anything like that publicly people say whoa whoa who are you

00:04:45.360 insulting to which i say insult where was the insult well you just said somebody's on the spectrum

00:04:54.080 to which i say right but but what's the insult isn't that like saying somebody's tall somebody's

00:05:01.520 somebody's somebody's black somebody's white somebody's male so it's just who you are so i don't put judgment

00:05:08.800 on being on the spectrum you know if you if you took away the inventions and the benefit that has been

00:05:14.480 brought to the world by people who are technically on the spectrum and i think elon includes himself

00:05:20.400 uh you know he's he's self-identified as you know being on the spectrum i'm not 100 sure it's true but when i see this

00:05:27.520 this kind of opinion where he's favoring the literal over the over the reframe that doesn't need to be

00:05:34.560 literal i think wow that this might be one of the cases where drawing this distinction between a reframe

00:05:43.760 would work for the regular public but here's what i learned i just learned it doesn't work if you're on the

00:05:49.920 spectrum which actually makes sense right so being on the spectrum would make you a little more literal

00:05:57.120 and maybe you just couldn't embrace the imaginary part of the reframe so i learned something anyway

00:06:05.520 looks like there might be coming a ban on chinese connected car software

00:06:10.320 vars technica is talking about that i guess that's uh the congress is working on that there might be some

00:06:17.360 exemptions but it would block americans from having cars with chinese software now i don't know what the real

00:06:26.480 potential risk is for having a let's call china an adversary um having them have control over some 0.99

00:06:33.280 number of cars in america but how many cars do you think are on the road at any one time in america it's

00:06:40.400 a big number right would it be five or ten million at any moment during the day i don't know what the

00:06:47.200 number is but it's got to be millions and suppose we become a self-driving car nation seems inevitable

00:06:55.760 might be only a few years away what would happen if an enemy just got a hold of a million cars and just

00:07:02.080 drove them into ditches it is a weapon of mass destruction potentially to have a million cars drive

00:07:10.000 off the road at the same time so yeah i'm in favor of banning the chinese software even if there's no

00:07:17.040 indication there's something wrong with it there will be there will be uh meanwhile over at interesting

00:07:25.760 engineering there's a pine cone inspired building shades so they studied pine cones that apparently

00:07:33.760 i guess the little uh whatever you call it the the what what would you call the little leaves or

00:07:40.160 whatever the on the pine cone it's probably a word for that um but apparently they move based on the sun

00:07:46.560 so they wanted to find some way that you could make your windows in your building uh open up and

00:07:51.760 close based on sun and without using electricity so are we called needles

00:08:01.200 i don't know i'm not sure if that's right but uh they do it without electricity so that's the important

00:08:06.960 part the sun directly causes the pine cone like parts to open now my take on this is doesn't your

00:08:15.680 window look like a pine cone do you ever want your window to look like a pine cone

00:08:24.080 i don't know i'm not sure this has potential meanwhile there's a uh the tick-tock tick-tock ban

00:08:31.920 as far as i know it's going to go into effect on sunday unless something miraculous happens between now

00:08:36.960 and then can you give me a fact check on that is that correct that tick-tock is going to be done in

00:08:43.040 the united states it'll still be international but is it going to be done in the united states

00:08:49.520 hmm because i feel like there might be another thing coming you know there were some reports that

00:08:56.880 elon musk was talking to china i don't think that's true well that was never confirmed so i don't think

00:09:03.600 that was ever true but do you think anybody could put together a purchase deal in a few days you know

00:09:12.560 i suppose they could if they felt the price was right but i don't see any possibility that tick-tock's

00:09:19.440 going to say yes even if the price is right so i don't know exactly what would be purchased if somebody

00:09:26.720 purchased tick-tock but it makes me wonder if china is willing to give up billions and billions and

00:09:33.520 billions of dollars they must be hiding something in other words if if somehow we got control of their

00:09:42.720 software and their algorithms would we be able to determine how much they've been putting a finger on

00:09:49.360 the algorithms would we be able to know that just by buying it looking at whatever they sold us it

00:09:56.560 could be that they're worried that they don't have a way to scrub that because you know how when musk 1.00

00:10:04.000 bought twitter there were so many little censoring tags in it that that even the owner couldn't tell what

00:10:12.480 it was censoring like it was just too complicated so what if china said get rid of all the get rid of

00:10:19.120 all the incriminating stuff and then maybe we can sell it and then tick tock would have said uh we could

00:10:27.200 try but we probably wouldn't get close to knowing that we had all the incriminating stuff out of the

00:10:33.440 software because it's not that easy and then china might say uh you can't sell that thing because if

00:10:41.360 they find out what we've been doing there will be repercussions so this is speculation but i

00:10:49.280 suspect that tick tock would be sellable unless they're hiding something and they don't know how to

00:10:56.320 unhide it or they don't know how to hide it completely i guess anyway um if you're saying to

00:11:02.880 yourself hey but trump liked tick tock so he won't like it if it goes away i remind you he's not going

00:11:08.640 going to be running again and i would be really surprised if the republicans ever field another

00:11:14.400 candidate who can rule tick tock you know that you know that being able to control and even dominate

00:11:23.360 the messaging on tick tock that's purely a trump thing you all know that right so anything you say

00:11:29.680 about well you know trump trump did well on tick tock so why would you ban it that's just trump

00:11:35.600 not that do you think desantis is going to light up tick tock you know if tick tock still existed

00:11:43.760 no no he's not yeah that's purely trump so the republicans aren't going to care if it goes away

00:11:53.440 we'll see some of you may remember how many of you remember that back in 2018 2019

00:12:01.360 uh i announced to you that i was going to try to put tick tock out of business do you remember

00:12:08.000 that and you said to yourself well i mean that's that's not a thing and then i kept saying it's a

00:12:15.600 thing do you know what the first part of persuasion is the first part of persuasion is you have to

00:12:22.880 think it's a thing if you don't think it's a thing everything else you say after that doesn't

00:12:27.840 matter you're like blah blah blah blah blah but as soon as you think it's a thing then you can start

00:12:33.600 looking at the pros and the cons so i decided a few years ago i'm going to make sure everyone knows

00:12:39.840 it's a thing and i got to senators i got to a lot of senators a lot of people in the house

00:12:47.360 just because they're natural viewers some of them i contacted personally you know ones that i could dm

00:12:53.120 and in some cases i know for sure they heard the message got it completely and uh even responded

00:13:03.120 so i certainly was not pushing it for the last you know year or so because it looked like it was just

00:13:09.760 becoming an israel issue so i think israel killed it because they didn't like they didn't like that it

00:13:15.200 was persuading against them i don't know if that'll ever be official or i don't know if history will record

00:13:20.880 that israel killed tick tock in america but i'm pretty sure that's the case now normally i would 0.77

00:13:27.840 have said hey israel another country even our ally you can't you can't turn off a free speech platform

00:13:36.000 in our country stop that but since i'm completely on the same page i just sort of step back now do you

00:13:45.600 remember when uh trump first mentioned buying greenland and your first reaction was come on

00:13:52.480 you know why because you did not believe it could be a thing that was step one trump first told you

00:14:02.240 it's a thing and then you would argue whether it's dumb or he's kidding or it's a joke but when you were

00:14:07.840 done you would think it's a thing and therefore you can talk about the pros and cons and it turns out

00:14:15.040 there were a lot of pros a lot of pros and the cons

00:14:22.480 none you know depending on the nature of the deal maybe none they won't necessarily be voting could be

00:14:30.240 a territory there might be a price that makes sense it might work for denmark it might work for greenland

00:14:36.480 but nothing would have happened nothing until trump told us it's a thing so when i said banning tick tock

00:14:46.640 is a thing i got no traction on day one i think i had zero people agreeing with me on day one eventually

00:14:54.560 i hammered it and hammered it until you might disagree you might agree but you definitely know

00:15:00.960 it was a thing and on sunday we might find out if it's the thing all right uh the sec is suing

00:15:08.640 yelon musk because they have nothing else better to do but uh i don't know if this one is legit

00:15:15.360 it might be this one might be legit and it's just a money thing so you know if you had to pay some

00:15:20.320 money i could see that happening but he's being sued because when he first bought the first shares of

00:15:26.400 twitter it was above i guess it was above some number where you're supposed to announce your your

00:15:32.960 purchase and he was late i guess late in registering that he'd done it and there's some argument that

00:15:41.360 because he didn't say it um then he said just because uh you know he didn't say it that somehow

00:15:50.400 other people lost money because they didn't know that he did it maybe you know i i can see that

00:15:57.280 argument i just i just wonder if this would have been pressed against everybody because it seems like

00:16:05.280 it'd be easy it would be easy to demonstrate this is the day he bought the stock this is the rule

00:16:11.920 this is when he you know when he admitted he bought it it's after the rule yeah 175 million dollars

00:16:19.600 write us a check so it's just it might be valid you know you you might say to yourself yeah that

00:16:27.440 would have happened to anybody i don't know um i watched the segment with uh michael schellenberger

00:16:32.800 on tucker's show tucker carlson and uh there was a little discussion on uaps i did notice that

00:16:40.880 tucker sort of took over that conversation and i never really got to hear what michael schellenberger

00:16:46.960 thought was happening so schellenberger brought up a few of the hypotheses but i don't think he landed

00:16:55.760 on you know what his opinion was and part of it is because when tucker started talking about it

00:17:01.520 i think that just took the conversation in such a direction that i don't know if michael thought that

00:17:07.600 was the right time to give his own opinion on it because i'm sure he has one but uh here's what tucker said

00:17:13.520 about the the uap is quote they're not from mars they're not from another planet they're from here

00:17:20.400 they've always been here these are spiritual entities it's clear that these things reside

00:17:26.240 deep in the earth under the water and in the atmosphere and they pointed out that elon musk

00:17:31.520 and he'd had personal conversations with musk tucker had um didn't think that there was anything coming

00:17:38.080 from space now tucker said and i don't know if this is just tucker or elon said this as well

00:17:45.280 and i'm not sure it's true he said that uh we'd pick up on satellites anything entering the atmosphere

00:17:52.320 do you think that's true i don't if you look at the quality of any of these systems in the united

00:18:01.920 states that you thought were good none of them are good you yeah if you had asked me a month ago scott

00:18:09.920 what do you think is one of the you know best fire departments in the world i would have said well

00:18:16.640 you know obviously la because they would need it they would have the money and you know enough of

00:18:22.640 the population to get whatever they needed so yeah the best fire department in the world probably be la

00:18:29.280 well not so much so when i hear things like well our advanced satellites would pick up any ufos coming

00:18:38.320 through our completely impenetrable digital network of surveillance i say to myself or not yeah or not

00:18:47.840 maybe um so i don't know if that's a good reason but uh trump said uh about the uaps uh um

00:18:56.240 um i'm going to give you a report on drones uh at least we don't know if the drones are really the

00:19:02.720 same as uaps but the drones over new jersey i think he's talking about uh we'll give it in one day into

00:19:08.160 the administration he told the governors somewhere because i think it's ridiculous that they're not

00:19:12.960 telling you about what is going on with the drones i'm going to make a prediction he's not going to tell

00:19:19.200 us what's going on with the drones and if he does you're going to feel that it's incomplete

00:19:25.360 like really does that explain all the drones or did that explain some of the drones or maybe a lot of

00:19:36.480 the drones so if you think that trump's going to get in there and then answer that question to your

00:19:44.080 satisfaction i don't think there's any chance of that i do think he means it i do think he's

00:19:50.160 telling the truth that he's going to try to do that i do think he'll try but no matter what he says

00:19:56.480 you're going to say how do we know he wasn't told he has to leave something out how do we know that when

00:20:03.120 he hears the real reason he says oh man i really wasn't expecting that so yeah i guess i'll just say

00:20:11.760 they're hobbyists and i'll leave out the rest maybe so i'm betting you will not be satisfied

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00:21:20.640 responsibly uh there's an army green beret who's now making some claims on social media i guess according

00:21:26.960 to the daily mail he was led into this secret ufo uh ufo crash storage at an underground naval base and he

00:21:35.520 went through all the uh all the places and they showed him the advanced alien technology there was

00:21:41.200 an orb that seemed to be operated by consciousness alone and there was some kind of thing you put on

00:21:46.560 your arm and it was magic but here's the part that completely made the whole story fall apart i mean if it

00:21:52.960 didn't already uh apparently he saw a door that was labeled and i quote off world technology

00:22:04.320 uh and i'm out and i'm out no there is no place in the world where somebody has a door

00:22:14.480 labeled off world technology

00:22:21.520 because even if even if you accepted that there is such a thing as off world technology and even if

00:22:28.640 you accepted that nobody should be in that part of the the building unless they had you know full

00:22:34.320 clearance and ability to know even then you're not going to put on the door off world technology

00:22:40.560 that's just not going to happen in any real world so no sorry army green beret

00:22:49.600 that that doesn't pass the initial sniff test speaking of sniff test alex jones had a kind of

00:22:56.480 an exclusive i think he he has a from a descendant see if i get this right so it was maybe the grandson

00:23:04.560 or so of somebody who was a confidant and a very rich guy confidant of lbj so the first part of the story

00:23:14.080 is that lbj was just a flat-out criminal and he ran the government through blackmail through i guess j

00:23:24.480 edgar hoover so it was according to this telling um so alex jones and his guest um

00:23:33.840 it's well known well documented apparently there are books written in which lbj was just flat-out

00:23:39.600 criminal some say he was also a murderer some say he ordered the hit on uh jfk because he was so

00:23:49.600 uh humiliated by the way he was being treated now there is seems to be good evidence that he was

00:23:56.960 humiliated so the part is did he really order well the evidence is according to the grandson he found

00:24:06.400 some the he'd had them for a long time he didn't just find them but for a long time he had had the

00:24:12.080 tapes left to him you know in the estates or the wills or something so he had these little tapes and he

00:24:18.800 finally had them you know uh converted so we could listen to him whatever that took and then those

00:24:25.520 tapes were played and it showed i i believe it was either you know his own relative talking to another

00:24:32.240 close confidant and it seemed to be a phone call in which they were talking casually but in a worried

00:24:39.440 way just sort of matter-of-factly that lbj had ordered the hit on kennedy and it's just like right

00:24:47.840 there plain as day now um alex jones says that the source is impeccable so he vouches for the the

00:24:56.720 human being who had the tape he knows that that person was in fact a relative is in fact a relative

00:25:02.960 of a real person who genuinely was you know lbj's confidant and apparently participated in some shady

00:25:11.440 stuff um he's he's checked to make sure that the a that the audio was not ai generated so he feels that

00:25:20.960 he has a positive source the the recording didn't just pop up today it's something that the source

00:25:27.520 that he trusts says he's had in his possession for a long time and that um it didn't seem fake

00:25:34.880 fake fake in terms of it doesn't seem like something that that was not related to those two people it does

00:25:43.040 look like the two people made the tape it's a real tape but then i listened to it i would like to give you

00:25:49.840 my judgment it might be the real people just just like as claimed it might be exactly those two people it may

00:25:58.880 have been made at exactly that time so i think the tape is real the people are real and the timing is real

00:26:07.280 and they really said those things however i'm going to give you a little insight as a professional writer

00:26:15.680 the hardest thing about being a professional writer when you write dialogue and i remind you that i write

00:26:21.360 dialogue for characters every single day for 35 years there is a skill involved in writing dialogue

00:26:30.240 the main part of the skill is avoiding looking like it's scripted dialogue did you all know that

00:26:38.640 the main thing that you want to avoid to be a good writer you know some one that people will pay

00:26:43.840 attention to is your writing have to has to just be clearly unscripted you know something that a real

00:26:50.960 person would say if you listen to the tape as i did and you're a professional writer you will see

00:26:58.720 right away it's scripted so it doesn't mean it's not true that that's a whole different conversation

00:27:06.160 it could be that the principals wanted to get it on tape so that it would be you know believed or

00:27:12.480 something in future days it might have been a protection thing maybe they were protecting their

00:27:17.120 own lives by you know having a tape that would be embarrassing to jfk or to lbj so i do think

00:27:25.120 everything about it was real except that it was in my opinion very obviously scripted so as a

00:27:32.720 professional writer that was professionally scripted do you know do you want to know what the tell is

00:27:38.880 the tell is how perfect it was and how often they put the person's name in the middle of a sentence so

00:27:46.880 you'd know that who was talking that that was a little over the top so it would go like hello sol i

00:27:55.840 hope you're having a good day well thank you for that input sol it's good that we have these i'm making

00:28:03.440 that up but you can see how stilted it is here here's where our real people talk oh man i got this

00:28:10.080 thing what uh yeah i got a thing and then the other one talks over him then he asks a question and then

00:28:16.880 then you you you circle back and you you apologize for saying it wrong and you correct your words

00:28:22.960 that's what real conversation looks like this was not that

00:28:28.720 it was pretty far from natural conversation now i'd like a second opinion

00:28:34.160 and remember i'm not doubting the veracity of the underlying claim

00:28:40.240 i wouldn't know one way or the other i'm just saying it's scripted

00:28:44.640 might be true but it would be scripted

00:28:50.640 if there are other professional writers who write dialogue specifically i'd love to get an opinion on

00:28:55.600 that uh spacex is going to launch two unmanned lunar missions so that i guess there are two rovers

00:29:02.800 and those rovers will be going around on mars not mars on the moon so elon musk is launching two probes

00:29:12.400 into my moon ouch

00:29:14.720 um so that's fun i i really like having a rover on the moon i'm pretty much rover fascinated i'll watch

00:29:26.560 whatever that rover does and takes takes pictures of um and the december uh inflation was 2.9 they

00:29:34.640 expected it to be 2.9 so the good news is it's not going up quickly but of course the the baseline of

00:29:43.680 our costs are all basically unaffordable so yeah unless it goes down it's not helping at all

00:29:52.160 uh just staying where you expected it used to be good news not anymore uh well trump has announced

00:30:00.160 the formation of the what he calls the external revenue service so instead of collecting money for

00:30:07.040 the government from internal citizens he's going to find ways to charge other companies or countries

00:30:14.160 for stuff so it would include uh any money collected from tariffs which you might say uh that comes from

00:30:24.720 american companies that's the opposite of external you would be right

00:30:33.520 but if if it's part of the if it's part of the negotiations you know where we're going to use

00:30:39.840 tariffs as a weapon using tariffs as a weapon using tariffs as a weapon is going to be a whole lot more

00:30:45.440 convincing if we've got an entire department who's dedicated to using that weapon and and

00:30:53.040 collecting the money from it um so here's what i think is coming has not been in any way explicitly

00:31:01.200 announced but let me tell you what's inevitably coming we're going to have such a budget problem

00:31:07.120 that trump being trump is going to do the smarter thing than nobody's done before and it's basically

00:31:14.160 a mafia play because we've got the biggest military and you say to the small countries that have

00:31:20.480 had a free ride because your military protects them basically it'd be a shame if something happened

00:31:27.760 to your little country well nothing's going to happen to us we're part of nato and you know that

00:31:32.720 nobody would attack this hemisphere and you know you don't have to worry you know well that's only

00:31:38.160 because we're protecting you right right what if we stopped what what if we stopped protecting you

00:31:46.800 why would you do that it's expensive but you're not actually sending any military here you're just

00:31:53.280 saying that if something happened you would send military here so other countries will stay away from

00:31:59.600 let's say south america and then trump says right yeah that's that's the way it's been it's not the

00:32:08.560 way it's going to be because if you want a little military protection in advance before you need it

00:32:16.000 why would that be free when you pay for insurance you pay for it before the disaster you don't pay for

00:32:23.280 it after the war starts that that's not when we're going to start billing you you pay now because

00:32:29.200 you're buying an insurance plan so trump appears to be setting the stage for the u.s military

00:32:38.400 to be everybody's insurance plan which means that you would literally pay for it maybe even based on

00:32:45.200 your population or something just like insurance now is that unethical or is it just a smarter way to

00:32:54.720 organize a military well if you're another country let's say you're costa rico costa rica has no

00:33:01.360 military unless unless they formed one recently i don't think so no military how hard would it be for

00:33:06.800 a foreign power to take over a country with no military easy why is it they don't try because of the u.s 0.88

00:33:15.840 military yeah do you think costa rica is paying us a annual payment for all that protection literally

00:33:23.520 protecting the whole country oh now i think is that fair no now you could argue that we're protecting

00:33:30.720 them for our own benefit and that would be a good argument it's like oh it's bad for america

00:33:36.400 if costa rica falls to an adversary but it's also true we're protecting them and they're paying nothing

00:33:44.720 or not enough so i i think this might have more legs than you think and once again trump is doing

00:33:53.200 that thing that he did with greenland until he creates this department the external revenue service

00:33:59.600 you don't really think it's a thing they would charge other companies or other countries for

00:34:05.200 protection but now you think it's the thing don't you you might hate it you might love it but guess

00:34:12.080 what it's a thing it's a thing it trump does this maybe better than anybody's ever done it which is

00:34:21.760 making the thing that's not a thing a thing and then if the if the cost benefit in a purely objective

00:34:29.280 sense makes sense then the thing can go on on its own and and become a real thing but first you have

00:34:36.960 to change the entire national consciousness from that's not a thing to oh that's a thing now we can

00:34:45.920 talk about it it's brilliant it that i hate to keep saying things like this because they sound so

00:34:53.760 hyperbolic so so kissing his ass so you know hero worshiping i get how it sounds but i think history 0.77

00:35:03.600 is going to back me on the following statement we've never seen anything like this this is a level of

00:35:11.600 understanding understanding of how persuasion and and people think that is so unprecedented

00:35:19.680 there's nobody even close i know you want to say oh reagan was the great communicator yes

00:35:25.200 very very good very a plus reagan this is a whole different level so reagan was a plus in junior

00:35:33.920 college you know trump's a plus at the india institute of technology which is ways which is way more than

00:35:41.760 you think it is all right bank more on course when you switch to a scotia bank banking package

00:35:51.520 learn more at scotia bank.com banking packages conditions apply scotia bank you're richer than

00:35:58.160 you think

00:36:00.480 special counsel jack smith's report is indicating that trump would have been convicted if not elected

00:36:06.400 that's what everybody's saying uh is that news i think everybody knew that didn't everybody know that

00:36:14.720 trump would be trump would go to jail if he wasn't elected we all knew that did it help him get elected

00:36:22.080 i hope so so we live in a system where if things go wrong they can just lawfare somebody into jail and

00:36:32.560 damn near did it the only thing that kept trump out of jail is an amazing campaign team his own

00:36:40.320 abilities which are transcendent and the fact that the public said that's a line too far

00:36:45.840 i i think the public stopped that entirely i mean by their vote of course but there was also an implied

00:36:54.160 threat wasn't there there was an implied threat that if half the country watched their leader be put in

00:37:02.800 jail the entire social contract was going to be ripped up and i think enough people said that that was

00:37:09.920 believable um i don't know if it would be but i but i think it could have been the entire social contract

00:37:19.120 if you know what i mean uh meanwhile james o'keith and his omg uh undercover uh video business

00:37:27.920 they found an advisor to the joint chiefs of staff so this is a somebody has a high level advisor a former

00:37:34.480 fbi special agent and he called himself a spy hunter and he went on one of these dates in which

00:37:41.200 he talked too much fake dates so the undercover person went on the fake date and recorded him

00:37:47.680 uh asked somebody thought about trump and he said uh trump's a sociopathic narcissist who is only

00:37:53.040 interested in advancing his name his wealth and his fame he's had a lifetime of cheating he's

00:37:57.680 habitually addicted to lying about himself okay so the first thing you know is he's suffering from

00:38:02.880 terminal tds these are not the words of a person whose brain is working correctly or is it true

00:38:11.600 that trump uh tries to maximize his own game like everybody like everybody well was there some

00:38:20.400 politician who didn't like to see himself succeed which one was that even bernie sanders was trying to

00:38:27.200 win the damn election so watching them try to get what's good for them the only thing that matters

00:38:34.240 is was it also good for the country and what trump is doing is also good for the country so there's no

00:38:41.520 real difference between doing a great job for the country and doing a great job for yourself they're

00:38:48.000 exactly the same you know and and the job is so transparent they would literally have to do illegal things

00:38:55.120 to get out of that model of what's good for the country ends up being good for you you have to be

00:39:00.240 illegal for that not to be true and we're watching pretty closely especially trump so that's crazy

00:39:10.000 but then it gets worse um he apparently was involved in uh back in russia gay times he spent his time

00:39:18.080 looking for all that foreign interference to explain how trump got elected didn't find any

00:39:26.160 so his tds is extreme couldn't even believe that trump got elected unless there must have been

00:39:31.840 some foreign interference nope there was foreign interference it was against trump

00:39:37.360 uh the the minor little russian memes didn't make any difference everybody smart knows that

00:39:41.760 um and then the uh undercover reporter asked him if there's anything that he quote could do to

00:39:49.840 protect the american people from stuff that trump might try and he said quote i'm in conversation with

00:39:57.760 a couple of retired generals to try to explore what we can do so here's a spook who's

00:40:06.480 actually having conversations with retired generals we didn't get their names uh

00:40:15.280 looks like he's planning an insurrection

00:40:18.880 so it looks like they're not looking to respond to some specific thing trump did

00:40:24.240 but rather just take him out of office through some kind of you know undercover mechanism that involves

00:40:30.640 generals and somebody who's a spy hunter now i assume he lost his job immediately but who knows

00:40:38.960 so that's all we know about that so beware all of the undercover people who think that they're doing

00:40:44.880 what's good for the world i think this guy actually believed he was doing the right thing

00:40:50.880 which is scary it's really scary if he thought that was the right thing

00:40:54.560 all right the inauguration is coming up and uh it's been announced a number of entertainers but the

00:41:00.720 interesting ones that are non-obvious i mean uh kid rock is obvious but the the village people said yes

00:41:08.880 now i love that the village people said yes not only because trump you know trump basically made them

00:41:15.200 rich because i'm pretty sure he popularized the song again i don't know 30 years or 40 years after it was

00:41:22.800 an original and um since the public in general assumes that they're all gay and and that that's actually

00:41:33.840 part of the fun you know the whole ymca thing it's kind of a gay anthem but it's weird that they say no

00:41:40.960 we're not gay but to the public it's the gayest group in the world but not in a bad way and so the

00:41:49.920 beauty of what trump did was he wasn't mocking them he was accepting them exactly as they wanted

00:41:56.560 to be accepted as really good music that we like to dance to and it's unusually fun because it breaks

00:42:03.040 out of that hetero only you know way of being and so you know even watching trump enjoy the pleasure of

00:42:11.440 breaking into that hetero only you know you can't act like you're enjoying that music or something it's

00:42:17.520 wonderful and uh they're they're paying them back or maybe paying themselves either way it works for me

00:42:23.680 by uh taking the chance they're taking a chance on him i love that so good job village people

00:42:32.560 uh carrie underwood is performing that's the one that surprised me why in the world would a really

00:42:40.560 well-established uh singing star one associated with trump if if she hasn't already uh because

00:42:48.400 isn't that going to cut her future revenue in half forever it might so both the village people and

00:42:57.680 carrie underwood seem to be more of a indication that he that trump has been at least a little bit

00:43:06.400 established as okay to say you you support him now if you're getting the if you're getting the

00:43:13.840 entertainment people to say that you've really penetrated a whole new category because you

00:43:19.920 already got the tech people saying whoa whoa wait a minute the fine people hoax wasn't real

00:43:26.400 so that the tech people have all caught on that that it was just this major brainwashing operation

00:43:32.160 so once they found that it was all brainwashing they could see all the other brainwashing and then

00:43:36.800 then their vision cleared and then they just made the the rational choice but uh to get it into the

00:43:44.000 entertainment world as deeply as carrie underwood is impressive so uh all respect to carrie underwood

00:43:51.680 for taking what is clearly a risk but if she doesn't get as much pushback as would end her career

00:44:00.560 then i would say she's part of the solution if you're trying to unite the country you're going to

00:44:06.560 need some people who go first and take the arrows on the back and this to me seems really brave

00:44:13.360 for carrie underwood i'm very impressed i've seen her in concert by the way i've only i've only

00:44:17.520 ever been to a few concerts in my whole life but maybe three concerts in my life but she was one of

00:44:26.480 of them it was a good show michelle obama is not coming to the inauguration but barack is that would

00:44:33.200 make two events in recent weeks that barack went to and michelle didn't where you would expect that

00:44:39.680 normally she would the other was the carter funeral now unless she has a medical problem which i wouldn't

00:44:47.280 rule out just maybe something she doesn't need to get into with the public it would suggest there's 1.00

00:44:53.440 marital problems now there's i've heard the rumors i don't think there's direct evidence to support

00:45:01.440 that and you never know what's going on in somebody's relationship but it's a little hard to understand

00:45:08.080 weeks apart you know same thing it's it's sort of built into what you expect that they would do as a

00:45:16.160 couple brock and michelle so i would say the possibility of either a medical situation that

00:45:23.760 doesn't resolve very quickly which could be very bad and it might be just that or there's something

00:45:29.120 else going on and so there may be an early signal that when i found out my friend got a great deal on

00:45:35.360 a wool coat from winners i started wondering is every fabulous item i see from winners like that woman 0.93

00:45:42.400 over there with the designer jeans are those from winners ooh are those beautiful gold earrings did

00:45:48.400 she pay full price or that leather tote or that cashmere sweater or those knee-high boots that dress 1.00

00:45:54.000 that jacket those shoes is anyone paying full price for anything stop wondering start winning winners

00:46:01.520 find fabulous for less meanwhile costco has uh responded to criticisms about his dei programs

00:46:09.440 by saying they're planning to keep them um so they like their dei they have a dei manager i guess and

00:46:16.720 they're going to keep their dei because it's worked for them they say at costco robbie starbuck who's the

00:46:22.640 activist who's had huge success getting companies to eliminate their dei uh notes that costco is not

00:46:31.360 high on his list because it would be a hard one and it makes sense to do the ones you know you can

00:46:36.160 get because it creates momentum to get the hard ones later so so starbuck is telling us yeah that's

00:46:43.440 that's not on the top of the list right now get to that one later maybe but here's what i want to

00:46:50.160 point out uh costco is uh 72 percent of top costco managers were men and 81 were white let me remind

00:47:01.040 you that i have been grossly discriminated in my life for my gender and my race you all know the

00:47:09.040 stories i worked for a bank they said i couldn't be promoted because i was a white male i left i went to the

00:47:14.240 phone company eventually they said you can't be promoted because you're a white male i created a

00:47:19.440 tv show that lost its slot on monday which ends up you know being a death it's sort of a death blow to

00:47:27.600 a show to lose your time slot because i was a white male and i had a comic about a white guy and they

00:47:32.960 decided it was going to be an all african-american comedy night and of course i lost my entire

00:47:38.960 publishing and syndication career because i said something that you would only be punished for if

00:47:45.040 you're a white man and people didn't even disagree with me it wasn't even like i said something people

00:47:51.520 didn't disagree with once they actually heard what it was in context nobody disagreed i've never heard

00:47:58.000 a single person disagree with it but i was canceled worldwide now here's what you need to know

00:48:04.880 every one of those motherfuckers who canceled me was a white guy all of them they were all white 0.99

00:48:12.480 guys protecting their own asses because they knew they were in that position where there should have 0.62

00:48:17.680 been more diversity in their own job but as long as they could force people like me who had less power

00:48:24.640 than them to take the hit they can say look at all these good things we're doing we're getting rid of

00:48:30.480 all these white guys who say things you don't like we're we're making sure that they can't be promoted

00:48:35.920 give me an extra bonus because i've discriminated against white men so let me say it again in my life 0.89

00:48:42.560 i'm not aware of even one time any black american or any black person in any country ever discriminated

00:48:50.320 against me not once not once have i been discriminated against by white people yes a lot

00:49:00.320 a lot and i fucking hate their guts so if you had a problem with me because you're black 0.99

00:49:08.800 we have a lot more in common than you think first of all you and i never had any problem ever not in

00:49:14.640 person not professionally not in any way surprisingly and i know this would be a surprise to you i didn't

00:49:21.040 lose any black friends none i only lost white friends white people discriminated against white people

00:49:29.920 is an enormous fucking problem and if you get it wrong and you imagine that it's the dei hires 0.92

00:49:37.200 that that are the problem they don't even get those jobs that they don't even get there until there's

00:49:43.520 already been massive discrimination by the white people so is the you know is the police chief uh

00:49:52.080 in la you know who's a lesbian and i guess three of the top people in the fire department are lesbians 1.00

00:49:59.040 is that an indication that she's discriminating against white men well she probably is but you also have 0.56

00:50:07.600 to open the possibility that people tend to hire people that they know you know that's just a that's

00:50:15.440 a worldwide pattern you know the white ceo is far more likely to hire just somebody they knew from another

00:50:22.720 job so that's probably pretty pretty common anyway so i'm not in favor of it any of the dei but just

00:50:31.120 keep it straight it's white people discriminated against white people is 95 of the problem 95 but i

00:50:39.440 love black americans uh i hate powerful white americans who discriminate against me

00:50:47.600 p hegseth nomination i didn't watch every bit of it but i saw a lot of clips and i'm going to say

00:50:52.400 my god i have to admit that when p hegseth was nominated i said to myself what tv host he's not

00:51:04.240 even the like top rated tv host like what why does that even make sense now didn't some of you have that

00:51:12.880 same reaction when i was first announced but then i found out more i i didn't know the degree of his

00:51:19.760 activism on behalf of the military the soldiers very impressive um i believe he signed up for

00:51:28.400 twice right he was out of the military briefly and decided to go back in

00:51:33.840 right uh that's impressive he is he's completely dedicated to the uh the what he calls the warrior

00:51:42.320 uh ethos instead of the dei you know trying to be nice to everybody ethos he has got an iv league

00:51:51.040 education so he understands the military the people the people on the ground um he's brilliant because

00:51:57.840 he's got that college education that pretty much certifies he's smarter than the average person by a lot

00:52:03.600 and then i heard him talk wow when they say he's just a tv host that's what the critics are saying

00:52:13.120 uh how about he has one of the best talent stacks i've ever seen because if you if you include you

00:52:21.040 know his his immersion in the news you know as a news person you add his talent for speaking in public

00:52:28.240 you add his ivy league background you add his really super relevant military experience and recently

00:52:38.160 that's like one of the strongest talent stacks i've ever seen but if you haven't seen yet the meme

00:52:44.000 there's a meme i would show it to you but you'll see it on all over the place of hank seth with his head

00:52:50.320 is in the middle of the meme and he's just sort of looking you know looking around just casually

00:52:55.680 and then there's four boxes of four of the female senators who are literally yelling at him 0.99

00:53:03.360 and they all play at once while pete is just sort of in the middle

00:53:08.080 and then you you hear all four of them talking over each other

00:53:12.720 and their faces are all like rabid dogs except it's it's like your worst you know your worst

00:53:21.120 relationship experience if you've ever been male now i know you're going to say

00:53:28.560 scott you're being sexist because you could have put a bunch of men in that and it would look the

00:53:34.160 same no it wouldn't no it wouldn't it wouldn't look the same if you put a bunch of men there it would

00:53:41.520 look you know maybe some of them are asking crazy questions but it wouldn't be the same

00:53:47.360 it wouldn't be the same so as memes go it's as soon as i saw it i thought to myself this might be one of

00:53:55.760 the best i've ever seen because you have to know also that the context was that um pete had i think

00:54:04.000 before he was nominated he said things about women in combat like him not being in favor of it so the

00:54:10.000 women were attacking mostly about the that and some accusations about his personal life that had

00:54:15.520 been debunked but uh watching him um answer the questions so confidently and so clearly and so

00:54:27.520 perfectly state what he wanted to do which is you know increase the the lethality of it and to focus

00:54:34.560 on that and do the job of the military not all the not all the side stuff so well said so well

00:54:40.720 presented so confident wow wow now i know that i will be blamed for you know being all in on trump

00:54:50.880 stuff and this sounds like one of those times i think this is just just recognizing quality that's

00:55:00.720 all it looks like to me so if the if the democrats ran somebody who could do what he did to basically

00:55:08.960 you know weather this situation give me a clear statement of exactly what he wants to do that

00:55:14.320 matches exactly without with what i want to do well i would say good things about that democrat

00:55:20.480 i i promise you i would right i say good things about fetterman when he's good i say good things about

00:55:26.400 aoc when when her persuasion is wrong i don't like most of the rest but i think i would i would

00:55:33.040 compliment a democrat in this situation i just like this game it was totally good

00:55:40.240 uh one of the my favorite parts was uh senator reed asking what does jag off mean so jag refers to the

00:55:48.640 you know jag and the military the the legal the legal group of the military uh which branch is that just

00:55:56.800 is that just the air force i forget but it's a legal term so so senator i guess at some point um pete

00:56:07.040 must have said something that used the phrase jag off like as a insult to the jag people or something

00:56:13.680 and so he's asked in public what does jag off mean senator reed asked that

00:56:18.480 now think of all the ways that you could have answered that wrong pete just says everybody here

00:56:28.320 knows what that means now that was the right answer everything else was the wrong answer there's not that

00:56:36.800 that was one of those situations where he clearly had not prepared for it like who would know that's

00:56:41.520 coming but to give that that clean an answer that was a clean answer when you you've never heard that

00:56:49.520 that shows that he's got a quick mind and he he can read the room so that was perfect the people in the

00:56:55.360 room knew what it meant but uh god i wish i knew what it meant so you know the rest of us will never know

00:57:04.080 the jag off

00:57:04.880 any ideas and maybe only the people in the room knew what you know too okay we all know

00:57:15.840 all right uh scott jennings did a post where he was talking about the uh nomination stuff for p eggseth

00:57:24.800 and and all the characters who were weighing in on it uh during the questioning and uh scott jennings

00:57:30.640 said uh they didn't lay a glove on hexeth today why do dem send their dumbest members to do this 1.00

00:57:36.640 to this important committee now my new nickname for scott jennings is clown slayer

00:57:43.280 uh because his specialty besides just you know being the best voice on the republican side who's

00:57:51.040 on cnn uh is that he seems to just slay clowns like the democrats who just shouldn't even be in

00:57:57.920 the conversation and and again not because they're democrats they are just legitimately stupid now are

00:58:04.880 there some legitimately stupid republicans i assume so but i don't feel like they go i don't feel like

00:58:11.200 they're in front of the the parade right when when you hear a republican talking it's like oh tom cotton

00:58:18.160 all right even if you disagree brilliant guy oh uh ran mccl uh ran paul oh well you might disagree

00:58:26.800 with a few things but brilliant guy you know thomas massey oh might disagree brilliant guy and you know

00:58:34.480 you can go down the line but the the democrats do seem to send their stupidest people

00:58:41.600 according to scott jennings but now i don't usually disagree with scott jennings so this might be the

00:58:47.680 only time i ever do i'm not sure that's their stupidest people i got bad news for you 0.81

00:58:54.400 it might be the smartest

00:59:01.520 it might be i mean you tell me which one's the smart one

00:59:09.120 yeah you tell me

00:59:12.160 yeah not much difference and then tim kane uh was prominent but tim kane looked like uh the pointy

00:59:19.360 haired boss from dilbert except more gay so he looked like the gay pointy horde boss now as far 0.85

00:59:26.480 as i know he's identifies as hetero but uh presents as a pointy haired gay guy so that was fun i couldn't

00:59:34.880 i couldn't get my eyes off it so and again if you know me well enough you know that i never insult the

00:59:42.160 lgbtq community because i think they're amazing uh the success they've had in the united states

00:59:49.120 reputationally economically socially is just one of the most impressive things i've ever seen

00:59:56.160 meanwhile over in south korea i was trying to ignore this because i thought the story would go away but

01:00:00.400 uh the ex-president the one who was removed by impeachment his name is uh uh uh yoon suk yeol

01:00:11.840 y-o-o-n middle name s-u-k last name y-e-o-l now you might not recognize that as a south korean

01:00:23.120 president name but you might be confused because it's also how

01:00:28.640 a southern man in the united states insults somebody same thing what you don't see it right so

01:00:37.520 in korea he would be called yoon suk yeol and if it were an insult from a southern gentleman it would

01:00:44.640 be you suck y'all yoon suk yeol as opposed to you suck y'all same thing anyway he uh he had been 0.99

01:00:56.880 impeached and they wanted to arrest him but he used his own uh uh his government security to prevent

01:01:04.960 him from being arrested so he went into his little uh very well protected compound and when they send

01:01:11.280 authorities to arrest him his own security which is paid by the government said nope we protect him

01:01:19.920 until that job changes you're not arresting anybody which i which i i really respect it

01:01:26.880 now they came back with 1100 people so then the security force was so outnumbered that quite

01:01:34.400 reasonably they knew that the smarter thing to do was to stand down and they did so he's arrested

01:01:41.760 uh he was a conservative he was arrested by something more liberal on the left

01:01:46.560 uh there's some insurrection charges does any of this sound familiar to you impeached insurrection

01:01:53.680 he's a conservative

01:01:56.880 sound familiar

01:01:59.840 do you think we were behind this do you think the united states may have backed this

01:02:04.880 i don't know i do not know but uh certainly suspected claudia was leaving for her pickleball

01:02:12.480 tournament i've been visualizing my match all week she was so focused on visualizing that she didn't 0.95

01:02:17.920 see the column behind her car on her backhand side good thing claudia's with intact the insurer 1.00

01:02:24.000 with the largest network of auto service centers in the country everything was taken care of under

01:02:28.640 one roof and she was on her way in a rental car in no time i made it to my tournament and lost in the 1.00

01:02:34.240 the first round but you got there on time intact insurance your auto service ace certain conditions

01:02:40.160 apply all right there's a little bit more on the palisades fire i know you're all tired of it and if

01:02:44.880 you're not a californian this may not be too important to you but i remind you that california's

01:02:50.880 economy is bigger than 35 of the other states put together and if california gets a cold

01:02:57.760 or what is it if california sneezes the whole country is going to get a cold so if you think

01:03:03.600 this doesn't affect you just wait it will it's going to affect you i mean it affects everybody

01:03:10.240 in california whether you're in the fire zone or not so we're all you know there's a lot you haven't

01:03:15.600 heard about but we're all struggling so things are not easy right now for anybody and and that includes

01:03:24.160 people who have some extra resources uh everybody's in a position they haven't been in before so that

01:03:32.320 the amount of pressure on everybody is through the roof and i don't know if you can fully appreciate

01:03:37.840 that you if unless you've been near a near one of these yourself but here are some of the things we're

01:03:43.760 learning now that should bother you um according to rich mccue from news nation there is video proof that

01:03:50.880 there was no response to from the fire department to the pacific palisades fire 45 minutes after it

01:03:57.760 was first reported now i think that they can tell that by some uh video video security from one of the

01:04:05.440 houses that was near the fire and may may have been involved in reporting it so i don't know if that's

01:04:12.320 confirmed because i've heard other stories that the fire department did as well as you'd expect

01:04:19.040 but that's out there so that i'm going to call that in uh an allegation because i'll bet you if you

01:04:28.880 asked the fire department they'd say something different so until i hear the other story i'll just

01:04:33.520 put a pin on that one but there is some concern that they didn't mobilize in time michael schellenberger

01:04:39.280 um talks about uh some of the failures and he had a good list that i'll summarize for you

01:04:48.320 um first of all here's uh here's a take from joel pollack and breitbart uh joel and by the way you

01:04:56.720 should be following joel pollack if you have any interest whatsoever in the fire because he's the only

01:05:02.400 person the only one who is a local and a you know a national reporter and is working full time to

01:05:10.960 make sure that people understand what's going on and uh so he's doing more than well i i don't want

01:05:18.880 to get in too much into the details but um we're gonna we're gonna owe him a we're gonna owe him a lot

01:05:25.120 when he's done we're gonna owe him a lot a lot of people are gonna owe him a lot um so he says that

01:05:33.520 in la due to budget budget cuts that uh the fire department was not um deployed wait do i have this

01:05:43.440 wrong this may have been sheldonberger too so there's something this is some thought that uh from some of

01:05:50.000 the smartest people who are watching that what should happen as soon as there's a long-term weather

01:05:56.080 forecast and i didn't know this by the way that what la should have done and what would have been

01:06:01.440 actually normal is as soon as they had the forecast that said wait a minute we're gonna have no rain

01:06:08.240 and we're gonna have these winds and we know there are all kinds of ignition possibilities

01:06:13.840 so in that condition what you don't do is wait for a fire normally that's the fire department's job

01:06:22.240 is to wait for a fire and respond in this case you know there's a fire multiple so they could know with

01:06:29.600 complete certainty there will be multiple gigantic fires what did they do in advance well not enough

01:06:37.600 here's what they should have done they should have put a truck or two everywhere there was likely to

01:06:43.040 be in the ignition and they know from history what places are more likely so that they could have

01:06:49.280 gotten really quickly at least with one truck to anything that just flared up now that's a big

01:06:56.640 difference from what happened so that didn't happen now why didn't it happen well one of the reasons is

01:07:03.280 budget cuts one of the reasons is a bunch of people got let go at some point because they didn't get

01:07:09.520 vaccinated a bunch of it is like a hundred trucks were in for repair probably also a budget thing so

01:07:17.280 between the budgets and the bad management they had completely eliminated their ability

01:07:23.600 to do normal stuff and normal in this case would have been to have enough trucks and people to

01:07:30.640 pre-deploy i think the the lack of pre-deployment is the biggest

01:07:36.960 in the end i think that's going to be the biggest thing

01:07:41.360 there's reporting that the fire department did not know that the reservoir had been drained but the

01:07:47.120 reservoir had been drained for nine years if the firemen if the fire department didn't know

01:07:53.280 that their main source of water at least for that one area had disappeared after nine years

01:08:00.480 there wasn't anybody who mentioned that so i'm going to say i doubt the reporting

01:08:06.880 that the fire department was not aware it might be true that they were not officially informed

01:08:12.880 but not aware the whole reservoir didn't have water and it was one of their main

01:08:18.160 main water sources for a place that certainly was going to catch on fire it's not like it maybe

01:08:22.800 it will catch on fire it was certainly they didn't have anything in the air that noticed

01:08:27.200 there was no resident who pointed it out i don't know i'm not not sure i believe that they didn't know

01:08:35.120 um let's see

01:08:40.240 what else they should of course they should have water sources that were near the fires

01:08:44.960 um they should have required more clearing of bushes and bushes and debris i think that might have been

01:08:51.280 a budget cut issue but the canyons were just filled with trees and debris i don't know how much you can

01:08:57.280 clean a canyon

01:09:00.960 like can you really do that can you remove the fire debris sufficiently from a canyon that it makes that

01:09:07.680 much difference i'm going to say yes because the experts are saying so but i don't know if that's

01:09:13.120 really that much of a thing um let's see the state or county could have spent 50 million dollars and

01:09:20.880 had a bunch of trucks maybe not the best ones they could be used ones or lower end ones but they could

01:09:26.080 be staged near the fire and that would make a big difference um the number of calls that the la

01:09:32.560 firefighters make in a year has tripled over the last 30 years while the staffing has declined by a

01:09:40.400 third so clearly they did not you know some of it is that the number of homeless has gone through the

01:09:48.160 roof um anyway a lot of this came i read this in pj media speaking of pj media uh they report that uh

01:09:58.160 the beginnings of what might be a recall effort against newsom and the mayor bass uh

01:10:04.960 this did so i don't know if uh that's going to happen but they're about 17 yesterday when i checked

01:10:11.680 the palisades fire were only 17 contained um but it seemed like the other fires were definitely getting

01:10:19.200 under control but not that that one uh and there'll be new uh winds whipping things up so i don't know if

01:10:27.920 anybody's going to get recalled some smart people say gavin newsom will come through a fine just by

01:10:34.560 blaming karen bass for everything and that might not be far off you know honestly i don't think

01:10:42.480 newsom should keep his job for a variety of reasons but i don't know if this specifically was his fault

01:10:49.920 you know that the fact that he said some things that you didn't like and you know acted like a clown

01:10:56.320 i don't know if it made anything worse but karen bass has some explaining to do 1.00

01:11:01.040 um one of the things gavin's done or i don't know if this state or this is local this might be local

01:11:13.120 but there are there's a you can't do price gouging because that's you know it's bad if you're price

01:11:21.280 gouging but on the other hand um it's kind of impossible for the displaced people to find any

01:11:28.880 place to live unless new places become available that weren't available before so in other words

01:11:36.640 no nobody's going to make anything available unless they already made it available so if the economics and

01:11:44.160 incentives were there before the fire to have a rental well maybe that's still there but if you want

01:11:50.400 somebody to open up that you know the the in-law room that you know used to have grandma but she 1.00

01:11:56.480 died they weren't planning on renting so if you want them to rent maybe they're going to charge more than

01:12:03.520 the market rate because they're saying oh well i can help somebody and i wouldn't want to rent it but

01:12:09.440 if somebody wants to pay a little more or even a lot more why would i stop them so you've got the

01:12:16.960 economics of a free market and the availability that is driven by economics fighting against the

01:12:23.280 we don't want to have price gouging and those two compete you kind of have to pick one um i think

01:12:31.920 the smart economics in this particular case is to let the price gouging happen and let competition erase

01:12:39.920 it so imagine if you will that um somebody says hey uh the rent here is double because you have so

01:12:48.880 few options what's that going to do to your neighbor your neighbor is going to say how much did you get

01:12:54.720 they paid that much rent whoa i'll try it too now you've got competition then the next person who says

01:13:03.520 well i'll try it too they can't get a renter um unless they lower the price so they're competing

01:13:10.880 with the other they're going to compete with the other rentals so competition should make a temporary

01:13:17.040 spike in rents that is completely unconscionable you know like people just actually just abusing the

01:13:25.040 the people who've already been abused by the fire itself that will definitely happen in a free market

01:13:29.680 market but it's also the only way you get real places that are available and everybody's happy

01:13:36.000 with the price there's no other way to get there the government can't get you there so it's a tough

01:13:40.640 choice and one understands the impulse to limit gouging but uh it's worse than you think

01:13:50.160 so um if you were to look at the price of a house in la let's say you you own a house and you

01:13:58.080 wanted to say oh i was thinking of moving and maybe i can rent out my house i'm leaving behind

01:14:03.920 if you buy a house in california a three-bedroom house down there in la and that in that zip code

01:14:09.760 90402 would be about 2.85 million dollars um which means that the pay if you bought it you'd be paying

01:14:20.160 20 000 a month on your mortgage what do you think you could charge in rent in that three-bedroom house

01:14:28.640 do you think you could get enough to pay your 20 000 a month mortgage nope you you know i think the

01:14:36.480 rental would be i'm just guessing 6 000 a month so there's no economic way the the the economics just

01:14:46.320 don't work so unless something was already rental and has been for a long time or you've owned your

01:14:50.880 house and you paid off the mortgage and you don't want to sell it it doesn't work to rent i remember when

01:14:56.800 people used to say scott you've got a little extra money why don't you buy some property and turn them

01:15:01.760 into rentals to which i say that's not a thing there's nothing i could buy that wouldn't be more

01:15:08.400 expensive for me to own than compared to what i could get the only special cases you can do that

01:15:14.960 where there's some weird thing that got you a deal or you've already paid it off or something

01:15:19.040 meanwhile over on cnn uh somebody named uh aisha mills democrat strategy strategist she's a black 0.99

01:15:28.720 woman which is important to the story and i think she was complaining about trump once saying that

01:15:34.400 there were a lot of bad genes among the migrants now if you know how language works and you interpret 1.00

01:15:42.800 trump correctly a lot of bad genes means there are a lot of criminals and if their genes are bad as

01:15:49.360 opposed to society has given them a bad start then there's nothing you can do about it and the only

01:15:55.840 thing you should do to keep out people with bad genes criminals is to not let them in the first place

01:16:02.480 so that's how i take it but apparently aisha and some of the democrats have taken that as racism

01:16:11.040 oh are you saying that everybody who comes across the border has bad genes no he didn't say that oh

01:16:17.760 you're saying that on average they have worse genes than white people no he did not say that what he said

01:16:26.640 was a lot of bad genes a lot is not all of them a lot is too many how many people who are just

01:16:36.320 going to be committing crimes you know in america we already have people who do like all the crimes

01:16:41.840 right some tiny amount of people do all the crimes do you think that they're genetically the same as the

01:16:48.000 people who are the same demographic as them i don't think so you show me the black guy who's got like

01:16:55.120 25 convictions and then compare them to you know your your black friends in the cubicle next to you

01:17:02.000 do they have the same genes no they have different genes whatever is causing the 25 crimes in a row

01:17:09.920 situation is not what's happening to bob in the cubicle next to you so to imagine that that's a

01:17:16.800 statement about the demographic group it's just weird like who would take it that way you'd have to

01:17:26.400 you'd have to aggressively want to interpret it wrong to to get to all the ways you got but anyway

01:17:32.560 so during that conversation there was a a bald white guy whose name i can't remember but he does a pretty

01:17:38.240 good job of supporting the trump side of things and she said to him on the air quote i'm not going to

01:17:45.760 be lectured by some white man who has no idea what he's talking about now suppose a white man said that

01:17:55.120 about her let's just reverse it because both of the characters on cnn are presumably very successful

01:18:03.760 professionals you know they they've got high-end jobs like really high-end so we we can treat them

01:18:09.440 as you know not like one is the oppressor and one's the victim they're they're both in a good good shape

01:18:14.960 compared to the average person in society do you think that if the man she'd been talking to a white 0.56

01:18:22.000 man that said i'm not going to be lectured by some black woman who has no idea what she's talking about 1.00

01:18:27.280 how long would that guy last as a guest on that show that would be the end of it they probably

01:18:35.360 would just go to commercial and say all right well you're not invited back and i think the host would

01:18:40.720 say you're never coming back we don't do that here she should have said the same thing the other way

01:18:50.560 we don't do that here yeah don't do that now even if that's the only thing that happened i'd be totally

01:18:56.960 happy uh what was the host the host was aaron i'm forgetting the last name but uh man you know i

01:19:07.520 didn't see what happened after but if but if she didn't say we have some standards that that's beyond

01:19:13.200 our standard if you want to be invited back that's that's that's not working that's all i wanted i i just

01:19:19.680 wanted a little bit of pushback i'm not asking for jail i'm not even asking that she not be invited back 1.00

01:19:26.240 i just need that just that just a recognition that that's not acceptable

01:19:33.360 anyway of course i guess pfizer has this lawsuit coming against them for anti-white discrimination

01:19:40.880 greg piper is writing about that and just the news and there was some challenge to that and that

01:19:46.640 got passed so that lawsuit will go forward so pfizer is going to have a little bit more to worry about

01:19:55.040 over at msnbc uh the head of the network rashida jones is stepping down now that's a weird phrase

01:20:03.360 isn't it stepping down don't does what does that sound like stepping down isn't she moving sideways

01:20:13.760 because she said she's got other you know she wants to work on other stuff so why is that down

01:20:21.840 maybe the other stuff is better isn't that up anyway it was a weird choice of words

01:20:28.240 um but she's being replaced at least temporarily with a of course i check a white woman and i said to 1.00

01:20:38.240 myself replaced with a white woman now i don't see an indication that the white woman is a lesbian 0.98

01:20:47.120 and so is that diverse enough for msnbc you know women are good they love they like women but i think 0.75

01:20:53.760 they like women who you know if you're going to be in prime time you got to be a little extra a woman 1.00

01:20:59.120 in black a woman gay you know lesbian so i don't know it was white woman and so i was first thinking i

01:21:05.920 don't know i don't think they've they've nailed that because it's a white woman and she just doesn't 1.00

01:21:10.560 seem on entirely on brand uh but then i saw what eyewear she was wearing her glasses and then i 1.00

01:21:18.560 understood let me explain it to you without showing you the glasses you know if somebody walks around the

01:21:26.000 corner you make an instant judgment if somebody walks around the corner with glasses like mine

01:21:32.240 i'm hoping they say oh there's a guy with glasses and that's it right but i'm just going to tell you

01:21:39.680 what would happen if the new head of msnbc which again might be temporary if you saw her coming around 1.00

01:21:47.040 the corner you would instantly see her glasses the the type and style and you would say to yourself oh god

01:21:55.120 god so if you haven't looked her up yet do this and have a good laugh just go look at what glasses 1.00

01:22:03.600 she's wearing and then ask yourself what you would do if she walked around the corner in any context

01:22:09.280 any context she walks around the corner and you look at her and you go just the glasses oh god

01:22:17.760 check it out you'll think it's funny anyway hamas says they reached a deal with israel to release a

01:22:23.840 third of the hostages um there's some people who say that didn't happen i don't know maybe

01:22:32.320 but i'm wondering if israel is figuring out the ultimate prisoner exchange so as i understand it

01:22:39.040 israel typically will give up lots of people for every one person that they get in return so it might

01:22:46.720 be 50 to 1 10 to 1 so there's gonna be a whole bunch of people that israel thinks belong in jail

01:22:53.840 that that would be returned and is my first impression was how's that right i mean you know

01:23:00.400 all the rest down you know it seems like you're just making it worse there's the picture yeah

01:23:09.280 but i wonder if israel is so clever that they're going to return all the hostages to the war zone so

01:23:14.080 they can kill them more effectively later so it'd be better to kill them than to keep them in jail

01:23:18.800 so it feels like they're going to get their prisoners back and take them to a safe place

01:23:24.880 but the ones that they wanted to keep in prison are probably the ones who want to go back to the war

01:23:28.880 zone which is probably exactly where israel wants them to be so they can kill them i feel like israel 0.99

01:23:37.040 just found a way to kill their prisoners they just have to do it indirectly stage one will release them

01:23:42.720 stage two we'll put them back in in gaza where they want to go stage three goodbye all right i'm going

01:23:54.480 to close with i'm going to i'm going to throw in a bad idea okay now the way i do this is that the bad

01:24:03.200 idea the purpose of it is to make you think of the better idea so this is to make you think differently

01:24:09.760 it's not that i necessarily think this is a good idea because there may be some hidden problems etc

01:24:17.520 and here it's an idea for doge so right now people pay six and a half percent on their salary to

01:24:24.960 social security so my idea is to make that go away that goes to zero so everybody who has a salary

01:24:33.440 gets this instant six and a half percent raise which is more than six and a half percent because

01:24:40.160 well six and a half percent raise um so that would uh that would give everybody some extra cash

01:24:47.280 so they would be able to spend a little bit more but how do you fund retirement well here's the bad

01:24:54.640 idea right remember i'm telling i'm calling it a bad idea but i don't know why so you'll tell me why

01:25:00.880 it's bad because i'm pretty sure it's bad but uh if you look at the total value of the fortune 500

01:25:08.000 uh you know the total capitalization it's um value if you added up all the stock basically it'd be

01:25:15.840 over 50 trillion dollars if you were to say we've got to cover 1.3 trillion dollars in social security

01:25:24.800 payments at the moment and growing um how much of that stock would you have to effectively tax

01:25:33.920 um to pay for it so imagine if instead of anybody paying anything that for several years then you

01:25:41.920 know maybe up to 10 5 to 10 years suppose that we keep the old system in place or we'll while we're

01:25:48.480 building up a new system and the new system would look like this once a year every company in the

01:25:53.920 fortune 500 has to print some new stock which would dilute their existing shareholders a little bit

01:26:02.480 and two and a half percent of their capital value would go to a fund that would be for everybody's

01:26:09.920 retirement now what you're saying is scott you're just taking a tax away from the citizens

01:26:16.960 and their paychecks and you're just giving it to their employers so you know doesn't it end up the

01:26:23.920 same no i'm not giving it to their employers i'm giving i'm taxing the stockholders and if you own a

01:26:30.800 lot of stock in the fortune 500 nobody feels sorry for you so it's automatically uh you know a progressive

01:26:38.480 tax the people who own the most assets would be hit the hardest but since the stock market goes up

01:26:45.600 80 percent a year or more um you know the it sort of still is okay now you ask yourself but scott people

01:26:54.640 nobody's going to invest in the fortune 500 which is the biggest investment vehicle right now because

01:27:01.360 you're degrading the return to which i say no the fortune 500 is two and a half percent better than all the

01:27:10.800 alternatives all it does is make them equal and if you wanted to do what's easy and safe

01:27:18.800 you'd buy that you know which is what i do i have most of my money is in the fortune 500

01:27:23.120 so on one hand it's a transfer of a dollar for a dollar from one part of society to another so

01:27:33.360 it's from the people who need to buy things to the people who had extra money and put it in the stock

01:27:39.440 market so the first thing is the people who are the employees have extra money so they spend more who is

01:27:48.320 the main beneficiary of employees having more money to spend it's the fortune 500 so the fortune 500

01:27:57.520 could potentially put two and a half percent uh well dilute its dilute its value to add you know add

01:28:05.440 some stock and it'd be two percent two and a half percent pay it every year but the economy would be so

01:28:12.800 juiced that their profits would probably go up to and a half percent you know or some compensating

01:28:19.280 amount so if you if you tax the people who don't have money the result is people spend less that's bad

01:28:26.880 for the fortune 500 if you let them spend more they're they're happier because they're buying stuff they

01:28:33.840 need and the fortune 500 has a massive amount one point trillion extra spending that just didn't exist

01:28:42.480 so my question is this

01:28:46.480 is that better because from the government's perspective they would be kind of out of the

01:28:52.080 business of social security they might be still managing the payments and stuff like that and

01:28:58.880 you know policing it but it wouldn't be part of the budget so it wouldn't be something you paid

01:29:05.440 and it wouldn't be something that the government took from your salary and gave to the retirement now

01:29:11.600 it'd have to be adjusted for the fact that there are more retirees and everything else but my main

01:29:16.720 question is this if you look at all the pluses and minuses it's the same amount of money that goes to

01:29:24.400 the retirees but since the the stock you collect would especially if you built up you know five to

01:29:32.160 ten years of these collections the stock you collect would go up on its own and you're not giving it out

01:29:38.800 the same day that you're getting it with with so you would have the possibility that if you collected

01:29:46.560 you know a few trillion the several trillion could sit there gaining just as things gain

01:29:54.400 and then you're you're basically keeping up with inflation and better so i do not claim that i've

01:30:02.640 i've thought of everything and these are all good ideas this is more of a buy greenland idea so you

01:30:10.000 see what i'm doing this is a buy greenland this is the external revenue service this it's the same

01:30:17.040 persuasion first i'm gonna make you think well maybe it's a thing and then you'll

01:30:23.520 say what are the pluses and the minuses and then we'll have a productive conversation eventually

01:30:28.880 smarter people will get involved smart a lot smarter than me and then they'll decide if that's

01:30:33.680 good or bad but you're not going to have that conversation and it won't remind you of a better

01:30:39.120 one unless you first say i wonder if that's a thing is that a thing and it could be that you know

01:30:48.000 it turns into some hybrid where you get stock sometimes instead of payments maybe you can opt in

01:30:54.160 that sort of thing who knows but first just imagine that it's a thing that you could get rid of the

01:31:04.160 social security tax and you might do something that's some kind of an equivalent with the fortune 500

01:31:10.320 oh here's the here's the part i forgot to tell you that's actually very important

01:31:14.640 do you know why companies like to get into the fortune 500

01:31:17.280 it's because their stock goes up once you're in the 500 you have an enduring systemic advantage over

01:31:25.600 everybody who's not in the top 500 because the big um funds all by the top 500 so the moment your

01:31:34.240 stock goes into it every stock index fund buys that and your price goes up in theory

01:31:40.320 so why does the 501st company get none of that benefit is that fair so taxing the fortune 500

01:31:51.600 you're basically taking from them only the unfair advantage they get by being in the top 500

01:32:00.080 so do democrats hate that no we all kind of hate that the elites have special privileges we don't

01:32:08.320 being in the top 500 is a special privilege for a company it's not like other things so if the only

01:32:15.600 thing you're doing is modifying this special privilege so it's a little closer to other

01:32:21.440 companies that doesn't feel unfair and especially since the fortune 500 gets the most benefit from

01:32:29.600 anything that gooses the economy in a legitimate way so it's surprisingly it's surprisingly robust idea

01:32:36.960 isn't it i don't think i've got the the math right and i've probably forgotten some things but the funny

01:32:43.120 part is it's not instantly it's not instantly rejectable doesn't mean it's good i would be very

01:32:50.560 surprised if if it's a clean good idea but i i added to the mix trying to be helpful now i remind you

01:32:59.280 one of the superpowers i claim to hold uh is resistance to embarrassment so do you think i would bring

01:33:07.680 this up unless i had almost complete resistance to embarrassment nope nope because i'm probably five

01:33:17.600 minutes away from somebody saying uh you idiot uh you forgot x and then i'm gonna say oh man you're right 0.95

01:33:25.760 i totally forgot x will i be embarrassed not even a little so so i can i can add this to the collective

01:33:34.800 thinking with the thinking that you know maybe it sparks somebody's better idea you know maybe it

01:33:40.880 just makes it look possible and i don't worry about the embarrassment that's just free there's no risk

01:33:46.800 to me so learn to be not embarrassed and you will be a much better value to the people around you that's

01:33:53.360 all i got for you today i'm going to say hi to the locals people privately in 30 seconds the rest of you

01:33:59.760 i'll see you tomorrow yeah

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - January 15, 2025

Episode 2721 CWSA 01⧸15⧸25

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