Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2731 CWSA 01⧸25⧸25

00:00:00.000 do

00:00:00.560 what a saturday

00:00:06.380 good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of human civilization

00:00:12.800 golden era if you'd like to take this experience up to levels that nobody's ever seen with their

00:00:20.400 tiny shiny human brains all you need for that is a cup or mugger a glass of tanker gels with

00:00:25.780 dine a cantine jugger flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid i like coffee

00:00:30.440 and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine of the day the thing that makes

00:00:35.020 everything better it's called the simultaneous sip and it happens now thank you paul

00:00:42.160 oh my god that felt so good you know one of the things i i don't think i've ever mentioned

00:00:53.960 but um you know i do this low rent kind of podcast where i put uh obviously i'm not putting all of my

00:01:04.000 efforts into production values and you know hiring a team of team of writers and having a makeup artist

00:01:11.360 and things that other people do not everybody but some do and one of the things that happens is that

00:01:18.520 in a small way uh i end up recreating what trump does and in a very specific way not not the entire

00:01:26.700 trump thing but with just one narrow specific thing which is it becomes sort of an audience participation

00:01:34.320 and uh one of the things if you ever see me say thank you paul at the beginning of the show

00:01:40.180 is because i always had trouble knowing if the sound was working because no matter how well the sound

00:01:46.580 works there's always somebody it's not working for because you know their own phone is in some

00:01:50.800 mode or something so i can never tell for sure if the trolls were real or not but one of the uh

00:01:58.240 subscribers on locals um i won't say his full name just in case he doesn't want me to but uh created a

00:02:05.620 graphic that shows the the that i can very quickly see that the audio and the video are working

00:02:12.100 and he looked i think he's looking at multiple multiple platforms at the same time now i didn't

00:02:17.760 ask him to do that it's just it really needed to be done so he had the capability so he just did it

00:02:26.480 and it's the sort of thing that you see in the trump administration where somebody has a good idea

00:02:33.380 and they can find somebody who can find somebody who can find somebody who knows the president and next

00:02:40.140 you know the president hears the idea and if it's a good one he says that's a good idea and the world

00:02:47.620 changes it's the damnedest thing it's it's only a trump thing but i've i've sort of accidentally

00:02:53.060 recreated it by having you know low production standards but in there are there are a number of

00:02:58.360 other examples i won't get into in which people are just doing add-ons you know they're saying you

00:03:05.280 know this show would be a little bit better if you had this going for you and then somebody will just

00:03:10.300 do it it's it's really quite amazing um so after the show today owen gregorian is going to host a

00:03:18.800 spaces after party so spaces is the audio audio only thing on uh x so you have to be the next user

00:03:27.800 and it'll be after the show and uh people simply wanted a little extra and they wanted it in a

00:03:35.700 different form so somebody made it in this case it was owen so uh appreciate everybody who contributes

00:03:45.360 either sending me dms or figuring out what's wrong with the show and fixing it and it really is special

00:03:51.360 it makes it makes it feel completely different to me it feels like a it always feels like a team

00:03:56.260 effort even if i'm sitting here alone anyway you know i'm going to talk about evs and batteries

00:04:02.320 turns out according to car scoop uh steven rivers that at this point in time an ev an electric vehicle

00:04:12.000 will last as long as a regular combustion engine automobile now that kind of snuck up on me didn't

00:04:20.040 it because you're thinking why wouldn't you buy an electric car and the first thing you say is

00:04:26.220 well they don't last as long well that's over they they last a little bit longer so you don't have

00:04:34.200 to worry about that anymore now i i still think it depends which one you get and you know the battery

00:04:39.440 isn't exactly the same at the end as it is at the beginning so there's some of that um so if you have

00:04:46.220 some skepticism about the battery i'm open to that but the point is there are things like this that

00:04:52.420 just sneak up on you um for example if you didn't get an electric car because there weren't enough

00:04:59.180 charging stations well that's probably not true now so um i remind you that i have i have some tesla

00:05:09.160 stock so i'm not completely objective about the the domain but you're going to see evs they seem to

00:05:16.420 have crossed all of the critical the critical things meaning that the public now says there's

00:05:23.120 nothing wrong with it it lasts as long as the other ones there's a way to there's a way to get

00:05:28.160 electricity so a lot of those things got got solved just by waiting and innovating over time

00:05:34.280 anyway i i saw a uh a post today by somebody i don't know on x simp for satoshi that's the name of the

00:05:43.800 account but let me read the opinion and this one hit me like a like a box of rocks um so the opinion

00:05:52.960 is silicon valley is broken into being a bottom by the way so the the context was somebody saying that

00:06:00.000 in silicon valley it's like the pdd situation that there's a lot of gay grooming and that's behind a lot

00:06:08.360 of the startups now if you had told me that before i'd ever heard of harvey weinstein weinstein

00:06:17.700 one one side i would have said eh sounds unlikely if you told it if you told me that before i heard

00:06:25.020 about p diddy in the entire music industry i would have said yeah i don't know that doesn't sound real

00:06:32.500 to me but when you tell me after i know those two things and and they're both uh sort of male

00:06:40.480 dominated at least the management of the culture you know the managers in the culture um how could

00:06:47.880 it not be true what would be the argument that is not true now i can tell you that i've lived i've

00:06:55.180 lived in the bay area my entire adult life i've never seen any any hint of it and i've also never

00:07:02.600 heard of it until today it's literally the first time i've ever heard this accusation so i can't

00:07:08.220 confirm from any personal contacts and i have lots of them i mean you can imagine how many people i know

00:07:14.280 who work in the valley but i've never heard this before on the other hand so so i'll put it in one

00:07:21.600 basket i've never heard it so that that argues against it being real but on the other hand if

00:07:29.000 it seems to be real in a hundred percent of the situations in which it could be real and this is

00:07:35.100 one in which it could be real i don't discount it you know i can't confirm it from any personal

00:07:43.400 experience but it certainly opened my eyes to the fact that i never even thought about it so

00:07:50.540 um the accusation is that if you if you're willing to get groomed you're going to get a lot of money

00:07:56.460 and you'll be introduced to people and then you get on the fast track i'm not saying that's true

00:08:02.020 i'm just saying if it was true and if it were true in both the hetero and the homosexual way for

00:08:09.940 these other industries why wouldn't it be true in silicon valley like what would stop that from being

00:08:17.040 the same i don't i can't think of any force that would stop it from happening anyway um jillian

00:08:25.340 jillian michaels has a new fake news um finding here uh apparently there's a letter that alleges to

00:08:35.140 be signed by over 17 000 doctors denouncing uh rfk jr and his you know non-standard views on things

00:08:43.280 now if you heard that 17 000 doctors were against this one guy who wasn't even a doctor

00:08:50.660 he's not even a doctor that's be that'd be pretty persuasive wouldn't it how do you get 17 000

00:08:57.680 doctors to be on the same side i mean that's a lot well here's how they did it they started a

00:09:03.500 website they started a website where you could just say you're a doctor and then they would count

00:09:09.300 you that's all it was it was just a website where you could sign up how many of those do you think

00:09:13.980 are real doctors well not 17 000 you know they might have gotten a few hundred but most of them

00:09:22.140 seem somewhat obviously fake so no i don't think there are 17 000 doctors saying that anyway so good

00:09:31.140 for jillian michaels to uh call that out i love it when anybody gets involved in the fake news spotting

00:09:37.600 business you know the more people who don't do this for a living but are so inspired because they

00:09:45.920 they the first to notice it or they know that they have a bigger platform and they just say you know

00:09:50.980 what i gotta fix this so again in the trump golden age somebody like uh jillian michaels although she's

00:10:01.580 a public figure but somebody like her doesn't say oh this is bad and then just move on with

00:10:07.540 their business she says this is bad is anybody fixing it oh if nobody's fixing it i'll fix it

00:10:15.760 because i can so she makes a video and she fixes it you know at least now there's a record that there's

00:10:22.660 a there are two sides to the story so when when you start noticing you're gonna start noticing the

00:10:29.380 pattern over time that people are simply noticing a need and then just saying i can do that and just

00:10:36.420 stepping into it like like nobody's ever seen before the the fire victim is in la and north carolina

00:10:42.700 same experience that the the necessity just brings people in so people are willing to pitch in now

00:10:50.740 they they feel some optimism they feel connected a little bit to their neighbors a little more

00:10:55.420 uh this might be the biggest trend like the most important thing might be people just saying you

00:11:02.820 know i can do this nobody else is doing it i'll do it um this would be exactly the case for my next

00:11:12.600 story so joe rogan has a doctor on dr mark gordon who said and i quote i have a 76 year old veteran

00:11:20.740 who was diagnosed with a gleason seven roughly speaking that's how aggressive your cancer is

00:11:27.820 the gleason score so seven would be high and the uh gleason is a grade of cancer of the prostate meaning

00:11:34.740 you know what stage and it was a gleason seven then he says he went on 12 meg uh milligrams of

00:11:41.180 ivermectin every day for eight weeks and at the 12th week he got a special pet scan done

00:11:47.220 uh to look at the abnormalities in the prostate and they couldn't find anything they couldn't find

00:11:54.580 anything and his psa uh when he came in his initially it was a 12.6 the psa is what tells

00:12:02.300 you if your prostate's got cancer usually it could be for other things but normally that's what it means

00:12:07.840 if it's high and it's now down to 5.3 which would be i think that's below the midpoint so it'd be

00:12:15.360 perfectly acceptable for somebody who had no cancer at all now remember i said the the larger theme

00:12:23.160 is people just see a need and they say oh nobody else is doing this i can do this and then they step

00:12:30.160 in that's what joe rogan's doing joe rogan you know he's been following the ivermectin story

00:12:37.180 because he has a connection to it through the the covet experience and you know that he probably said to

00:12:42.360 himself why do people say it works but other people say it don't it doesn't work like where's

00:12:49.260 my medical test where's my evidence why isn't the news following up it's like not even in the news

00:12:54.620 and so joe rogan says here here i'm speculating because i can't actually read his mind right but it

00:13:00.540 seems like a reasonable assumption probably said nobody's going to look into this well how about if i do

00:13:07.620 it and so he invites really exactly the right kind of gas and then he looks into it and then he's added

00:13:15.540 he's added to the public discussion now adding to the discussion always good being right every time

00:13:23.900 about everything not really a standard i would put anybody to that's not the standard nobody's right

00:13:29.300 all the time if this is a big big important thing and there's somebody who can really add to it

00:13:35.300 and joe figures out that if this is real he could be doing an incredibly incredibly important service

00:13:45.220 um to the rest of the country in the world really because if this is true it's it'd be unbelievable

00:13:51.400 now like joe and maybe even like the doctor himself um i'm noticing something that needs to be done

00:14:01.080 about this story that unfortunately i'm uniquely capable of doing which is debunking it now i'm

00:14:10.200 going to debunk it but without knowing if it's true or false so what i'm going to debunk is just the

00:14:16.880 credibility of it because if you went into this and said okay that's a real doctor he doesn't look

00:14:23.040 like he's lying and i don't think he's lying i do not think he's lying all right i think the doctor

00:14:28.020 and other doctors who have similar claims i think they're telling the truth about what they think

00:14:32.940 they're seeing so they don't seem they don't have any they don't really have any tells for dishonesty

00:14:39.580 when they're talking about it but here's what you should look for number one the patient is anonymous

00:14:47.680 if i told you that something depends on an anonymous witness what would you say if it were a political

00:14:57.080 story you'd say oh anonymous means it's not true but if i tell you an anonymous there's an anonymous

00:15:03.560 case in the medical community you probably wouldn't have the same impression because you'd say well

00:15:08.800 duh people like to stay private with their with their medical stuff you know totally understandable

00:15:14.840 yeah everybody understands that except if you were 76 and you cured a gleason seven scored

00:15:24.760 um problem and cancer problem in your body you're not being joe rogan meaning that you've now you're

00:15:34.180 now in a special place if it's true if it's true you're in this very special place where only you

00:15:39.920 can step up so going public unfortunately it comes with a price but if he'd like to also go on the show

00:15:49.580 with his doctor and maybe have the medical records so we can all see a copy just just the medical records

00:15:56.060 that are relevant i don't need to know anything out about his health but we would ask questions such as

00:16:01.580 was he on anything else right well hipaa doesn't apply if everybody if everybody agrees right so obviously

00:16:09.100 the doctor can't on his own talk about it we all understand that it would have to be with consent

00:16:13.900 but if if the patient and the doctor and their medical records could all be presented at the same

00:16:23.160 time maybe on a podcast and uh somebody who could ask the right questions i'm just going to throw out

00:16:30.320 my favorite dr drew so you just put dr drew on the podcast or or his podcast would be the ultimate

00:16:37.140 right dr drew's podcast just have the same doctor but i don't want to hear from doctors anymore

00:16:42.540 i want to hear them sitting next to their patient with the medical records in their hand just the

00:16:49.140 relevant ones and say look at this look at this look at this that's what happened and then then i'm

00:16:55.840 going to be like whoa now you got something so here's my role i'm going to keep pushing on this

00:17:02.680 because if you got cancer you really need to know if this is real like really really really and if it

00:17:10.960 isn't real i think it's a service if you know what the real odds are you know being realistic about

00:17:18.200 the odds and knowing what to do and what not to bother with so let me give you a standard by which

00:17:25.600 i would check in my opinion so this next part is an assumption but i think it's a good one

00:17:31.520 that it's so well known to anybody who has this specific cancer prostate cancer pretty much

00:17:39.560 i would guess close to a hundred percent of them would be aware that people have claimed cures

00:17:45.760 with ivermectin and or fenbenazole i don't think anybody in america who has a social media account

00:17:53.840 and at least one friend would be completely unaware that there are these claims of complete miraculous

00:18:00.280 cures for the very thing they have that can't be cured without pretty bad side effects in any other

00:18:08.280 way and if it if it metastasizes then there's no cure at all so you're talking about the most

00:18:15.360 incentivized people who are going to look for under every rock to find out what works now let's do the

00:18:23.200 math so let's say i don't know hundreds of thousands of people being diagnosed every year

00:18:28.820 with this exact cancer almost every one of them will find out how much ivermectin somebody else took

00:18:35.960 and what result they got and if they believe it which almost all of them will say almost all of them

00:18:43.800 will say wait you're telling me the side effects are minimal to nothing and there are people who look

00:18:52.600 like they're telling the truth like this doctor he looks like he's telling the truth and they say it

00:18:57.580 works why wouldn't you try it right if you're asking me what's rational in a risk reward world

00:19:05.840 i would think almost half of them are trying it by now so my guess is you've got hundreds of thousands

00:19:13.300 of people who are just sucking down the ivermectin and fenbenazole and probably have for the last six

00:19:20.400 months or so now keep in mind that the claimed cures happen in one to three months of being on the

00:19:28.400 so just one to three months so by now we should have a base of something like

00:19:34.720 if i had to guess maybe one third of all the prostate cancers in america probably one third of

00:19:44.080 them have taken fenben or ivermectin or both so if it's as effective as claimed and the and the claim

00:19:52.480 is not that it's 20 better than what you're doing the claim is that it just gets rid of it

00:19:57.700 so if a hundred thousand people got rid of an incurable cancer

00:20:03.400 wouldn't every oncologist know it because they would have five every one of them would have

00:20:11.620 five patients apiece just in a year that had been cured now am i doing the numbers wrong

00:20:18.360 tell me where am i yeah i'm aware of dr mackis so i've looked into all the claims

00:20:25.220 and they're all the same it doesn't match the doctor with the medical record with the patient

00:20:31.000 and somebody who can ask them some smart questions so

00:20:35.080 and then i'll take it to the next level if it worked hundreds of thousands would be using it

00:20:42.320 and certainly there'd be almost every oncologist would say oh my god you know i don't have i don't

00:20:48.360 have a randomized controlled trial but in my practice i saw three to five things that i've never seen in my

00:20:55.180 life so there's something going on right but i don't think you're going to hear that so you have

00:21:03.780 to ask why here's the second if it works as well as the few doctors say and again under the assumption

00:21:11.300 that probably a hundred thousand people are taking it by now just in case wouldn't the mortality for

00:21:17.920 um for this specific cancer be dropping through the roof now some of them some of them are metastasized

00:21:26.680 so you can tell if they died or didn't die but you might have to wait a few years you maybe maybe

00:21:31.640 that's it might be three to five years before you knew for sure but we should see that the death rate

00:21:40.040 for this specific cancer just falls off a table because i'm pretty sure there's every single

00:21:48.380 patient has heard about this and doesn't think it's a bad thing to at least give it a shot now don't

00:21:53.980 take any medical advice from me this is the most important thing i'll say do not take medical advice

00:21:59.240 from me so what i'm engaged in is trying to figure out what is true i'm not engaged in telling you what's

00:22:06.060 true i'm engaged in trying to figure out what's true because if this is true i'm going to be its

00:22:12.300 biggest supporter i mean i will make sure the whole freaking country knows this works if it works but

00:22:19.200 you're going to have to get over this little hump to show me that either all oncologists have noticed

00:22:25.340 because they would every single one would have noticed by now in their own patients or the or the

00:22:31.240 death rate falls off a table and we don't have any other explanation for it or we can get at least

00:22:37.540 three doctor couples with their patient and with the records you give me any of those any of those

00:22:43.800 three pieces of evidence and i'll be the the biggest proponent for it but i'm going to push hard

00:22:50.960 against it being credible until i see something that's credible right so that i that's that i think is a

00:22:59.200 value that i can provide we'll see and again it's because i'm i'm simply capable of doing it if i

00:23:06.680 weren't capable of doing it i wouldn't step in if somebody else were doing what i just did i wouldn't do

00:23:12.760 it i'm just saying there's a hole here i can fill that so i jump in do you think this is safe

00:23:19.560 this isn't safe do you know how much shit i get over this topic a lot but i waded into the shit

00:23:29.320 knowing it's going to be up at least to my chin because i can do it and i can handle that so i

00:23:36.680 know i can handle it so i can do it for you anyway too much on that ontario the wait is over the gold

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00:24:41.360 nicole i as i said before but it's it's funny every time it happens when i wake up in the morning

00:24:48.360 there are always some msnbc clips going around that people are commenting on what is the one thing they

00:24:55.120 all have in common they're being treated as comedy and nobody's adding anything to it in other words

00:25:03.580 it's simply just showing what they said and nothing needs to be added to make it funny and and so all morning long

00:25:12.260 i'll be looking at these msnbc clips with no commentary added and just like that's funny oh wow they're so silly

00:25:20.040 now cnn's not like that you know when i watch cnn it's usually because oh i disagree with that or

00:25:29.940 something like that uh you're maybe i'm challenging whether they got the story right but i'm not really

00:25:36.000 laughing at it msnbc is literally just a just for the laughs it doesn't seem to have any other purpose

00:25:43.660 anyway so msnbc is nicole wallace um she had she had a segment on uh tips for navigating political

00:25:53.460 anxiety steve guest was posting this on x now here's what she said nicole wallace our job is to

00:26:01.180 hold up a mirror and to cover the story but i think having done a trump presidency once i think it does

00:26:07.500 create a lot of anxiety among a lot of our viewers and i think some of these tools and just being mindful

00:26:13.420 about it without being woo woo feels really important is there anything missing in this story

00:26:20.640 like the part where msnbc acknowledges that all of this anxiety that their audience is feeling

00:26:27.700 is caused by msnbc

00:26:31.520 did did did trump do anything this week that would make anybody feel anything except happy

00:26:38.560 and optimistic not really the reason that the msnbc audience has severe mental health problems

00:26:47.300 including half of their hosts is the way they cover it it's not trump and so here's a perfect

00:26:54.580 example did did steve guest need to put some commentary on this not really you can just read

00:27:02.140 laugh at it because because looking at them not understand how anything works is really the

00:27:09.760 description of you know the worst part of the democrat party they're the ones who don't understand

00:27:14.700 cause and effect literally don't understand that they cause this and what they're watching is their

00:27:21.140 their own effect don't get it don't get that um incentives matter never they never they never

00:27:29.300 understand that incentives matter no cause and effect understanding whatsoever anyway uh

00:27:39.140 tom elliott on x was sending another msnbc clip around same thing so uh al sharpton was on there

00:27:46.980 saying that uh enforcing immigration law is racist that's it that's the whole story

00:27:58.900 the reason trump won is that even democrats finally said uh okay yeah this open border thing is totally

00:28:05.940 not working and the best that msnbc could come up with is al sharpton who basically only has one thing

00:28:14.020 he says that's racist and they put that on the air and they're like yeah that's a good segment i i wonder

00:28:21.140 if they could have the one of the watergate guys come on bernstein or the other one and say it's worse

00:28:28.180 than watergate if you have somebody whose only thing they ever say is it's racist do you have to have them

00:28:35.300 on you know they they have that other guy who's got like the the mushroom hair and he he's also like

00:28:42.740 al sharpton they bring him on just to just to say everything's racist if that's all they do and it

00:28:49.220 is all they do why do you watch it except to think it's funny that they call everything racist now it's

00:28:55.460 just funny so the more he calls things racist the harder i laugh meanwhile on cnn where things are

00:29:02.580 actually uh they are at least management is fighting to find a middle ground so that their audience can

00:29:10.100 trust them again um and in in many ways that are important they are actually finding the middle

00:29:16.420 ground and one of them is harry enton their data data data guy and once again i mentioned him a lot

00:29:22.340 but he was he was glowing about trump's recent approval level so if you if you compare the approved

00:29:29.780 versus the disapproved for each for each person trump was negative three in 2017 meaning more people

00:29:37.380 disapproved than approved and he is currently at plus six a nine point swing now the data guy harry

00:29:48.340 enton was pretty excited about a nine point swing because you don't really see nine point swings

00:29:55.780 on things that people understand really well you know maybe if they learn something new

00:30:00.660 but this is still trump he was trump then he's trump now i i would argue he's doing a much better job

00:30:07.380 after the the practice term you know the first one's like the practice term so he is doing a better

00:30:14.020 job and uh people are noticing so i like that and good for good for cnn for finding the middle sometimes

00:30:24.820 you know they have some work to do i think they know exactly where that work has to be done but at

00:30:30.900 at least when they show the data they're not making up stuff to make trump look bad if the data says it

00:30:37.140 looks good steven a smith and bill maher two people that have been long for a long time associated with

00:30:46.820 the let's say the democrat side are uh definitely softening on trump um so steven a miller was on

00:30:54.820 real time with bill maher last night and he made a big deal saying about how the reason that trump is

00:31:02.420 more popular than ever is that he's keeping his promises that he ran saying i would do these hundred

00:31:09.860 things and he's just he's just all over the hundred things he's doing what he said he would do and

00:31:17.780 for especially for men i think i don't i don't know if it hits the same with women because there's

00:31:25.460 definitely a gender difference to this so maybe the women can tell me but for men if you say you're

00:31:32.100 going to do something that's even really hard and then you put your your total shoulder into it and

00:31:37.860 like you're really leaning on it hard and you're pounding almost don't matter if it succeeds because

00:31:45.460 that's the person you want on your team even before it works and you don't even know if it's

00:31:49.940 going to work in in every possible way uh yeah that watching him risk his life go from the bottom of

00:31:58.900 the swamp to the top of the hill is some of the most inspirational male energy i've ever seen in my life

00:32:06.980 i mean it it is american in the way that we want it to be not the way it usually is it is masculine

00:32:18.660 it is corrective it is common sense it's kind of everything men like so you know you i certainly

00:32:28.340 understand why the men like it um so i can't speak for the the female view on this but doing what you said

00:32:35.140 you would do i just feel like that means more to men is that sexist because i'm willing to be talked

00:32:43.860 out of that so maybe you can correct me on that if you think so um but anyway even even when bill

00:32:52.500 maher criticizes trump now the criticisms are either some generic thing like i don't like the guy or

00:32:59.220 you know he might uh he might be too something something but i don't even think bill maher is

00:33:06.820 calling him a fascist because that would be dumb and i don't think bill maher is saying that he's

00:33:12.580 going to steal your democracy he seems to be spending almost all of his time telling the people on his

00:33:18.180 side stop saying stupid shit you'll never win like that and here again we've got a country with a big

00:33:27.700 need here's what the big need is come together there's not a thing we can fix unless we find some

00:33:35.220 unity um so i'm gonna give and i know i know there's competing opinions about bill maher and

00:33:42.420 steven a smith but i'll give you mine i think bill maher says there's a giant hole that nobody's filling

00:33:51.220 which is a reasonable democrat who can sort of bridge that you know total divide that the

00:33:57.620 media has created artificially somebody who can say okay can you just settle down this part

00:34:05.460 you can not like you know let's let's say abortion this part you could not like

00:34:10.180 that's perfectly reasonable that's a difference of opinion but the common sense stuff stop arguing

00:34:16.740 against common sense you'll never win and honestly i think we're all better off if our

00:34:23.540 if our two parties are a little bit competitive at the moment it looks like republicans could just roll

00:34:29.140 over all comers for a while and that makes me a little nervous even as much as i back that side

00:34:37.140 i don't want one side to have too much power that that works against our interests so when bill maher

00:34:43.620 says there's this giant hole for somebody to take the arrows in their back by taking a bold stand

00:34:49.780 and saying okay my own team is being ridiculous you'll never win like this shape up i say

00:34:59.540 that's exactly what the country is doing that's male energy finding a need realizing that he's going

00:35:06.180 to get his ass kicked this is the important part bill maher has said it and obviously it's obvious

00:35:12.820 that being a little bit um open to at least trump's performance if not his character um is hugely just

00:35:22.260 destructive to his income his reputation probably even his personal life and he he jumped in anyway

00:35:30.180 now i know what you're gonna say scott he's just a performer you know he's going where the wind is

00:35:35.940 blowing no he isn't no he's going where the arrows are going to put him in the in the back

00:35:42.900 that's brave no matter what else you want to say about him he walked into the breach and he's done it

00:35:48.420 before so we don't have to say this is the only time so even if you disagree with him he saw a need

00:35:55.300 he realized he had a unique ability to fill that need and he jumped in with both feet i i have

00:36:01.460 complete respect for that doesn't mean i'll agree with everything that's different topic

00:36:09.620 bank more encores when you switch to a scotia bank banking package

00:36:14.100 learn more at scotia bank.com banking packages conditions apply scotia bank you're richer than you

00:36:20.900 think anyway so the big story yesterday was trump uh doing a tour of both the north carolina hurricane

00:36:29.140 disaster and the la fire disaster in the same day that is so baller to do them in the same day

00:36:38.740 the same day and and the contrast with you know biden's low energy with putting him right in the

00:36:47.540 middle of it twice in one day i mean this really is next level stuff i mean i know anybody could have

00:36:55.540 traveled there and you know in one day but he's the only one who would do it he's the only one that

00:37:00.660 could stay awake that long he's the only one who could who could absolutely dominate at least in terms

00:37:06.820 of you know common sense those situations let's talk about it so apparently after the north carolina

00:37:13.700 situation people were complaining about um insurance and insurance for the north carolina

00:37:21.540 people was a big deal so trump's already moved and congress and josh hawley has picked it up and he's

00:37:27.940 going to call the insurance companies in and say why don't you give insurance to these people now the

00:37:33.780 reasons i think are going to be economic and you know maybe systemic and i'm not sure it's the

00:37:40.340 insurance companies that'll be the bad guys when we're all done because because they would make

00:37:44.820 they want to they want to sell insurance they want to probably it's going to be government stuff

00:37:51.860 getting in the way just the economics of homes the you know the the way people built them

00:37:58.740 you know if a home was only worth a hundred thousand you could get insurance if that same home just sits

00:38:06.100 there and because of inflation turns into a million dollar home it's the same risk except

00:38:13.460 now it's ten times more expense so the insurance company can't fix that it just doesn't work as an

00:38:19.940 insurance property unless you pay so much that you're not willing to pay it

00:38:26.020 anyway so so the first thing is that as soon as trump uh had a number of people on the ground say the

00:38:33.140 insurance is our problem he was on it now where it goes we don't know but he's on it and uh holly has

00:38:40.500 already put them on notice and said you're coming in you can explain to us why these people can't get

00:38:46.020 insurance exactly right exactly right um don't know where it goes yet but those are the questions and

00:38:52.980 those are the people to ask all right um then he goes on to la and pacific palisades now if you noticed

00:39:03.060 both of these events there's one thing that stood out that's it's almost like a dog not barking

00:39:10.740 maybe that doesn't fit in this case but did you notice how well he listens

00:39:17.860 this is the big surprise about him people who only see him on tv and you know he blusters and let's say

00:39:24.180 he's in a debate if he's in the debate he might talk over you you know if he's if he's giving a

00:39:30.020 press conference and the press as being jerks he might cut him off so if you see this bullet this

00:39:37.140 big old bully personality cutting people off and you know making sure they heard him 10 times and

00:39:42.980 hear them none stuff like that you would imagine that if you put him in a room with somebody who

00:39:48.900 has something to say they're not going to be able to say it because you'll just sort of talk over them

00:39:53.860 and you know not hear it right that that would seem to fit like if you're just going to guess

00:40:00.180 what's it like to be in the room but i've told you from my own experience and a number of people have

00:40:04.740 said exactly the same thing people have met him in private for the 20 minutes i talked to him in the

00:40:12.420 oval office i had the most amazing sensation that he didn't care about anything except what i was saying

00:40:20.500 for 20 minutes now obviously it was there was an exchange so i was listening to him and he was

00:40:25.460 listening to me but he he had complete focus he did not change the subject he stayed on my topics for

00:40:34.420 the most part and he was interested and asked questions with some depth of understanding and what i

00:40:43.460 what i believed was genuine curiosity some of it was about my business model for cartooning and he

00:40:49.940 learned about the cartooning business model like he just added that to his knowledge stack

00:40:56.180 in 20 minutes now he's got another whole business model that maybe he didn't have fully figured out

00:41:01.380 before so his listening skills if you experience it in person are almost unprecedented you know i i would

00:41:10.580 call him out as if anybody's done it better i don't have a memory of it it's impressive by the time you

00:41:18.500 leave you feel like you're the only person who mattered for 20 minutes now in reality well i don't

00:41:23.220 know what was happening his head i can tell you that at one point aid came in with a note that must

00:41:29.060 have been something important because it interrupted us he takes one look at the note sets it down and

00:41:35.620 then he's right back in with complete focus on me like the note didn't matter i don't even know what

00:41:42.100 it was you know could have been important so when i watched him in north carolina he said uh you take

00:41:49.620 the microphone you tell us your story and then he just stood and he just watched and he listened then

00:41:57.140 he goes to uh la and he's got very carefully picked group of people with his advanced team and his advisors

00:42:06.420 and he's got a room full of people it's televised and he listened to everybody in the room the

00:42:15.860 politicians you know he was a little harder on the politicians which we like but when the people who

00:42:21.700 lost homes were talking not only did he understand it perfectly but he could repeat it in his own words

00:42:28.180 with even more emphasis than they told it to him you know about the the insurance problems the

00:42:34.260 regulations etc and then he then he brought to it a complete understanding of the building industry

00:42:40.420 and the regulatory problems and like a real world total talent stack that was almost made for this

00:42:48.420 purpose yeah it was almost like if trump didn't exist you would want to invent a trump just to handle

00:42:56.740 at least the la part and i think north carolina as well because you need somebody who understands

00:43:02.260 that when the public says we want to build back but we can't because the government is stopping us

00:43:08.420 or the insurance company is stopping us he doesn't just hear it and move to his next problem he he takes

00:43:14.740 a drill and he just goes right to the center of the earth until he understands that problem and then

00:43:19.300 he tells you what you need to do about it because he understands the space i've never seen anything like

00:43:24.180 it and so yesterday last night when he was uh in la um i was doing a man cave live stream for the

00:43:32.580 subscribers and locals and we just we just watched it and it was so entertaining to watch him go into full

00:43:43.140 boss mode and just bully these worthless politicians right in front of us he just he just bullied them

00:43:50.420 right in front of us i could not have been happier and uh then there was one moment which was pure trump

00:43:59.620 so there's a moment when joel pollack got to talk he was in the room and you know he's a senior editor

00:44:05.940 for breitbart but on top of that he's one of the affected people in the palisades so his home survived

00:44:12.580 against all odds but it's you know it's not it's not habitable just like the other people and joel had

00:44:20.660 you know an extended sort of uh explanation lots of good visuals about him trying to save his house

00:44:27.380 with nothing but a bucket and you know a vase of uh flower water that was still there from before the

00:44:33.780 fire and you know the neighbors tried to help but there's no water so that i mean that that just brought

00:44:39.300 you right into the the scene and and trump just listens to every word and then joel gets to um

00:44:48.020 could we do something like 9-11 did when there was a lot of federal funding to you know repair the 9-11

00:44:54.260 stuff and there was some kind of special master that was appointed to make sure the money didn't get

00:45:00.340 diverted to all the illegal stuff now if you live in california and you hear that the government's

00:45:06.180 going to give you ideally some large amount of money to help you recover your first concern is

00:45:13.140 and then the idiots and my local government are just going to hand it over to their friends and

00:45:17.620 the friends will never build anything like this is what usually happens so hearing that the federal

00:45:23.460 government is just going to write a check to california without any control on it is like hearing that

00:45:29.060 they're not going to do anything that's how it is to my ears because i i just think it'll all be stolen

00:45:34.580 or or the the uh the friends will be the ones that wind all the bets or the bids not the bets and so

00:45:41.780 i think the state is so corrupt and so incompetent that there is no amount of money that can help us get

00:45:47.220 out of this problem so joel knowing that says what would you think about having a special master to make

00:45:56.900 sure that the money is spent correctly and then this amazing thing happens trump goes that's a good

00:46:05.380 idea and he turns to rick grinnell who's a california resident so he was he was a part of it he goes do

00:46:11.380 you think you can hook me up like form a committee or something like get me a special master and we'll

00:46:18.020 take care of that and then he looks back at joel goes that's a really good idea and in that moment

00:46:23.060 federal federal federal help for california became real it didn't feel real until he said yeah i'm

00:46:31.860 going to make sure somebody's watching where it goes and then you you this this was his event in the

00:46:40.820 palisades trump's was the most remarkable display of capability and talent and talent stack you know a

00:46:49.380 whole bunch of talents that are coming together at that moment that i've ever seen and it was

00:46:55.060 entertaining on a level that i can't even explain i mean we were cheering you know watching it in the

00:47:01.140 man cave i was standing up and like pumping my arms and and cheering like literally out loud

00:47:08.740 and i don't get that excited about anything but i was watching something for the ages

00:47:13.140 if you watched how he took care of the politicians and you know told them what's real what works and

00:47:21.700 what isn't that my favorite moment was when uh uh karen bass the bobble-headed idiot with a creepy

00:47:30.340 smile the only one in the room a full of disaster victims who thought that smiling was the right play

00:47:37.780 you can't be dumber than that right you can't be talking about with file oh yeah we're going to do

00:47:44.420 some things and we're going to do some things and you just looked at her and she was a few people away

00:47:52.180 from trump and the contrast was incredible first of all she's a small person like physically she's not

00:48:01.140 very tall and trump's a big hulking character so seeing her tiny little bobble-headed stupid smile

00:48:10.020 and then it gets back better so trump is all about um you got to get rid of this regulation

00:48:15.700 i'm gonna i'm gonna i'm gonna stomp on this regulation we've i've already cancelled all the

00:48:21.220 federal regulations all this left is your local regulations and he's trying to get the mayor to say

00:48:28.180 yes i will do what you're doing and you know be be commonsensical about the um about the regulations

00:48:36.340 and and she's acting like she's agreeing and trump's saying you know can't they get back into

00:48:42.580 their own property do their own cleanup if they want to pay for it he's like yeah yes yes they'll

00:48:47.620 totally get back in yeah yeah and then trump says everybody i talked to says that you say they can't

00:48:54.420 get back or they can't they can't do something for 18 months and then he says he actually points to the

00:49:02.180 residents he goes he just told me that he just told me it's 18 months and you're telling me that they can

00:49:08.980 go in tomorrow so he's obviously basically calling her a liar she's like yeah and then and then she goes

00:49:15.460 uh uh uh i i i think uh it'll be safe you know we'll let's let people in in a week

00:49:23.700 and then i just watched trump after she said they'll be able to get back in a week

00:49:33.700 and you knew what was coming it was just the most wonderful live moment you know he's seething

00:49:42.740 when he hears it's going to take a week without a reason and there's this little pause and he looks

00:49:50.020 at her and he goes a week is a long time oh oh oh oh oh he goes why not tomorrow now i don't know if

00:50:05.860 getting in there tomorrow's a good idea i don't know what the safety is etc but i sure liked him

00:50:12.420 pushing because the citizens couldn't push they had nothing to push on they didn't have any leverage

00:50:19.700 nothing so citizens can push all day doesn't mean anything but trump he listened and he said

00:50:28.580 i'm just not gonna let this happen so he just embarrassed her in public and that was the right

00:50:36.340 play we needed to see her absolutely embarrassed in public now again i don't even know who's right

00:50:42.980 it could be that waiting a week would be the smartest week you ever waited because then you'd

00:50:47.780 really know what the toxicity is and what to do maybe i mean i'm no expert but the the pushing

00:50:55.460 against it and saying that here's what i like the frame in government a week is a short period of

00:51:04.100 time so that's why she said it that's just a week in construction a week is the end of the world

00:51:12.740 you don't wait a week for anything if you're waiting a week you're losing money

00:51:18.180 so trump's you know trump's uh time frame of how fast anything should work is so different

00:51:25.060 than you know much of the world they're watching him press that point of view on her that a week's a

00:51:30.980 long time god i wanted to hear that i so wanted to hear that a week is a long time because the whole

00:51:37.380 time the whole time after she said it i'm just sitting there thinking a week a week's a long time

00:51:43.540 that's a long time why a week and then it comes out of trump's mouth he says what we were all

00:51:50.020 thinking but nobody could say it because they're not in the right position not the right person etc

00:51:56.900 and he talked for us he talked for us wow it was incredible i would say it's trump's best performance

00:52:07.140 in any domain it's better than any speeches ever getting better than any press conference better than

00:52:17.300 any debate it was his best moment he's he's at full power he's not taking prisoners and he's working

00:52:26.980 for the people and wow it was just shockingly positive now we'll see if he follows up you know

00:52:36.020 because follow-up matters and we'll see if he keeps the keeps the boot on the mayor to actually do

00:52:42.820 something useful we'll see but again it was the ultimate boss situation um

00:52:54.100 and then there's also the insurance question i just don't know how that's going to get solved but

00:52:58.340 maybe somebody has a better idea i was asked to comment on melania

00:53:02.740 so i will you might have noticed that melania seems more present uh this term than the first term

00:53:11.540 i i would i attribute that to baron's age i think when baron was younger uh melania necessarily wanted

00:53:21.060 to be you know just there for him and that was her top priority and we all get that i get that now

00:53:27.300 baron's off to college and melania is not just you know with him but she is she's with him as an asset

00:53:36.420 when she's with him and she's clearly with him like she's not there's no attitude there's no there's

00:53:41.780 no sense that she wishes she were somewhere else she's usually smiling and she also looks great

00:53:48.340 fashion wise you know this is not a not a sexist comment it's just fashion wise she's just kill of it

00:53:57.300 you know i'm not like a fashion guy but even i can tell that i can't keep my eyes off her

00:54:03.620 because her fashion choices are just really good um

00:54:11.700 and so here's my take on that imagine going through what they both went through

00:54:18.900 for the last eight years just imagine the impact on melania my guess is she wasn't maybe a hundred

00:54:30.580 percent supportive of everything that happened in the first term and beyond because it didn't make

00:54:37.540 her look good didn't make the family look good which isn't good for baron um kind of a stain and then

00:54:45.460 she would have to live with it the same same as the rest of them and then like a phoenix

00:54:52.580 he rises from the ashes trump does conquers all of politics hits a popularity we've never seen

00:55:01.620 the international community is fully respecting of him and the entire narrative has changed from

00:55:10.100 the survivor of uh assassination strongest politician in the world the the role model that other

00:55:17.220 politicians are looking to the single most important change agent and maybe the only person who could save

00:55:24.740 us from the you know the ledge that we've been driving toward now what do you feel like well if she went

00:55:32.740 through the assassination attempt and she had to live with the thought that it could have been so much

00:55:39.620 the other direction and then she's part of it so you know her critical part we don't see everything she

00:55:48.100 does but you know it's critical and i think she's taken a victory lap which man did she earn she earned her

00:55:55.940 victory lap same as trump did so i think part of it is feeling that he's on some kind of a winner's crusade

00:56:04.660 and she doesn't have the the baron responsibilities the way she used to that she's just enjoying the show

00:56:10.820 so i i think she's loving it

00:56:14.980 my lenses are fuzzy

00:56:16.020 i think i think you're right yeah my lenses are dirty good catch i will clean them on my t-shirt

00:56:29.460 all right p hegseth got confirmed but only because uh vice president vance uh cast the tie-breaking vote

00:56:37.860 so susan collins and uh lisa murkowski said no but also mitch mcconnell huh mitch mcconnell voted against

00:56:48.420 pete hegseth and yet everybody except these two other senators were foreign uh the republic republicans

00:56:58.660 how do we interpret that um i've heard somebody say that he didn't kiss enough ass um or that

00:57:07.860 the hegseth had not uh been the darling of the military industrial complex and mitch would be

00:57:16.900 some say associated with the military industrial complex and so he wouldn't want to support the guy

00:57:23.860 who's not necessarily part of that team maybe that would that would fit the i don't know if it's true

00:57:32.180 but it would fit the observation

00:57:36.260 but here's my question and i think it has to be asked in a situation like this

00:57:43.140 we know that through his wife he has deep ties to the chinese communist party you know big industry

00:57:50.900 now you all knew that right so his wife her sister and her father are you know big in the chinese

00:57:57.780 communist party communist party now we of course don't prevent anybody marrying anybody they want

00:58:04.740 and that doesn't mean there's anything going on that's inappropriate would we all agree it doesn't

00:58:11.220 mean there's any problem it's just a gigantic red flag but here's the context that i'd like to know

00:58:18.580 so i can evaluate this risk properly the risk of too much you know chinese

00:58:24.100 blackmail or you know incentivization or something i would like to know what is the history of spies

00:58:34.580 is there any known history where a spy will marry somebody and

00:58:39.540 read for i don't know 50 years and and the entire time they were just a spy

00:58:46.340 do we have any history where especially chinese spies but any other kind of spies

00:58:51.460 i know on tv shows it's real because i just watched the tv show called the agency

00:58:58.660 and a big part of the plot was that he was he was sort of you know in a relationship

00:59:05.460 that was a fake relationship for six years is that real do we do we really have people who will go so

00:59:13.060 far that they'll marry you have your kids and they've been a spy the whole time now if that's not a thing

00:59:21.780 if it's not a thing then i'll be way less worried about it if it's a normal thing meaning it's been

00:59:29.220 happening forever and other countries do it too well then i've got more questions so i'm not gonna you

00:59:37.300 know everybody's innocent until proven guilty i have no i have no evidence of mitch mcconnell doing anything

00:59:43.460 wrong um but wow the red flag there is just literally red flag is just so obvious that i feel like i need

00:59:55.220 the next level of understanding to to judge it properly and that is is it common to have somebody

01:00:01.620 who's a fake spouse i'm not saying she is i'm just saying i'd need to know how common it is to have any

01:00:08.180 opinion about this story rod martin is reporting that on x that there's a huge department of justice

01:00:16.260 purge going on with the trumpers coming in and getting rid of the uh the anti-trump type people

01:00:22.820 and apparently there's a rule that the you can't get rid of employees within 120 days of new leadership

01:00:33.380 taking over seems like a dumb rule but so if pam bondy comes in and gets uh gets approved she wouldn't

01:00:44.420 be able to fire anybody for 120 days so you might say well how are they firing people now here's the

01:00:52.180 trick as rod martin points out they're using an acting director so there's no rule about the acting

01:01:00.180 director firing people and the longer it takes them to confirm bondi the more people they can fire

01:01:06.980 so by delaying delaying the approval of bondi the acting director who is very pro-trump uh can just

01:01:16.500 just lay waste to all the anti-trumpers and they'll be gone before bondi's even even on the job

01:01:23.700 now that's that's kind of clever you know using the system against itself i kind of have to appreciate

01:01:31.700 that but apparently the uh the purge is hitting the criminal division the national security the

01:01:37.540 international affairs assault per rod martin um and uh uh apparently the guy who's the acting

01:01:46.900 the acting at u.s attorney it was uh one of these stop the steel organizers or maybe these stop the steel

01:01:53.540 organizers so it if if you were worried about keeping your job and you were you know prominent

01:02:00.900 democrat in the department of justice the most scary thing that could ever happen is that the

01:02:05.860 guy who organized the stop the steel movement is the one in charge and firing people

01:02:14.500 oh wow anyway let's see how uh let's see how democrats are doing so i've already i've already

01:02:21.300 glowed with my praise of how trump is doing but hey there's two sides so maybe the democrats are doing

01:02:26.900 okay too let's check in with them uh let's see there's a story in red state by mike miller

01:02:34.020 that jamie raskin called in a psychologist to help house democrats cope with trump derangement syndrome

01:02:41.860 oh well that's not so good

01:02:45.300 now i i think the uh characterization there might be a a little bit

01:02:50.260 uh a little bit more narrative than the facts but not much all right so the facts are according to

01:02:58.020 punch bowl news so raskin uh was with the house judiciary committee so not not all the democrats just

01:03:04.980 the house judiciary committee uh and uh the there had some kind of uh retreat for the judiciary democrats

01:03:14.740 only and uh raskin invited a psychologist some guy who's a university of virginia professor of

01:03:21.300 psychology and the people who attended this is according to the reporting by um by uh red state

01:03:31.700 by mike miller and they say that the purpose was according to the attendees to counsel democrats

01:03:40.900 about how to approach conflict and effectively combat what raskin described as authoritarian styles of

01:03:48.660 speech um and they were also democrats were advised to avoid devolving into partisan mudslinging

01:03:58.580 how much did they pay a psychologist for that i'm not sure that's like a therapist but

01:04:06.100 who needed to tell them not to devolve into partisan mudslinging why don't they just listen to steven a

01:04:15.700 smith or bill maher or indeed 100 of the democrats who are still smart every one of them would have told

01:04:24.260 them the same thing yeah are the only people who didn't know they should have uh avoid devolving into

01:04:29.540 partisan mudslinging are the only ones who didn't know that the ones who went on this retreat the ones

01:04:35.620 we elected into office does electing somebody into office make you not know simple things that

01:04:40.740 everybody else knows so anyway that doesn't look like a winning play by the democrats meanwhile we

01:04:46.980 learned that trump had a phone call with the prime minister of denmark over uh over the greenland

01:04:54.580 situation and this is before he was in office but um not long before and apparently it didn't go well

01:05:01.780 um and uh so the denmark's prime minister is a woman who is described as the john bolton of europe

01:05:12.180 so one expert said she's the john bolton of europe so imagine trump

01:05:18.740 making a phone call to the female john bolton of europe saying that you know he wants to conquer their

01:05:27.060 territory so needless to say the conversation did not go well did not go well um and i asked myself

01:05:38.900 how would you ever get a deal with the female john bolton there's no there's no way to get there is there

01:05:46.660 so i've got a question how long will that prime minister stay in office

01:05:52.180 yes because i've got a feeling that trump is going to sweeten the offer until the the people in denmark

01:06:00.740 say uh we got to get rid of our prime minister because the threats are too big and the benefits are

01:06:08.980 so attractive that the only person stopping us from getting these benefits and keeping us safe

01:06:15.220 is the female john bolton of europe so i have a feeling that step one of doing something useful in

01:06:24.260 greenland is going to be changing out the prime minister because i think trump can do that just by

01:06:31.300 pressure so we'll see we'll see i'm not i'm not going to predict that's what he's going to do

01:06:37.940 but i don't see the current leadership of denmark making a deal because the way they're approaching

01:06:44.260 it is almost emotionally like it doesn't seem that they came at this rationally if they came at it

01:06:50.660 rationally then yes a deal will get done but if it's an irrational response there's nothing you can

01:06:56.900 do except get rid of the person so he might have to do that first and i think he has the capability to

01:07:02.020 do it he could bring down another government if he needs to um when i found out my friend got a great

01:07:10.100 deal on a wool coat from winners i started wondering is every fabulous item i see from winners like that

01:07:17.300 woman over there with the designer jeans are those from winners ooh or those beautiful gold earrings did

01:07:23.540 she pay full price or that leather tote or that cashmere sweater or those knee-high boots that dress

01:07:29.140 that jacket those shoes is anyone paying full price for anything stop wondering start winning winners

01:07:36.660 find fabulous for less so i talked about this alex soros did this rare interview in financial times

01:07:43.540 it's behind a paywall and it's a japanese-owned entity and they only asked them polite questions

01:07:48.900 so it's not a real interview um and there was this point where you know he said he was so happy to see

01:07:54.740 a gay pride flag on an embassy once you know these things are going in the right direction he thought

01:08:00.500 which is a weird thing to call out as your priority i don't know where that would be on my list of

01:08:09.220 priorities but gay pride flag on an embassy wouldn't be among my top 100 most important things and i'm i'm

01:08:20.180 as pro lgbtq as you can get you know i i often call them out as remarkably successful demographic in the

01:08:28.420 united states and so to me that's just american so that's the end of the story but you know

01:08:36.340 he he thinks the flag on the embassy is important i don't know something wrong but he did say

01:08:43.300 that he apparently he was trying to arrange meeting elon musk in november and it didn't happen he thinks

01:08:50.980 you know elon wasn't committed to actually doing it but every day that alex soros does not do a real

01:08:59.300 interview with somebody who's going to ask real questions whether it's elon musk or somebody else

01:09:05.540 i'm going to assume the worst i'm going to assume the worst because what am i supposed to do he's deeply

01:09:13.460 influential in my country's politics deeply like to the point of being the main thing sometimes um and

01:09:22.900 he's not going to do an interview like a real one he does his fake one behind the paywall with a

01:09:27.940 friendly that's not a real interview so i i'm i'm going to say that the elon musk theory that the senior

01:09:39.460 soros wants to destroy america or the world because he hates humankind ridiculous as that sounds

01:09:46.660 i don't have a better i don't have a better explanation and if that's the best explanation

01:09:53.700 as absurd as it sounds um i'm gonna have to run with it because this is important it's important how

01:10:00.180 much influence he has on the country and we can't say well we don't know why and then just walk away

01:10:07.380 i think we have to treat it like an existential risk and that if he can't explain why he's doing

01:10:13.380 what he's doing i'm pretty sure it's exactly what you think now the the part of the uh the part of

01:10:21.780 the conspiracy theory i don't buy into is the anti-semitic stuff um so i'm not buying into any of that

01:10:29.300 that doesn't that just doesn't doesn't map to anything i'm i'm observing and i know that some

01:10:35.860 of you are gonna say what what don't you notice but until the anti-semites can explain how things

01:10:44.660 would look different if all you knew is that jews are good at school and therefore they end up getting

01:10:50.020 good jobs and end up in leadership and you know if you have a perfectly normal explanation

01:10:58.420 you don't really need a conspiracy all right so i don't buy the conspiracy stuff

01:11:04.260 all right here's an interesting factoid i only have a partial understanding of i saw

01:11:09.380 naval ravikant posting on x in the middle of the morning today which was really last night

01:11:15.300 um he says turns out that instead of scraping the web to train ai you can just scrape the ai that

01:11:23.700 scraped the web now i think what he's talking about is this uh new chinese open source ai called deep seek

01:11:31.700 r10 that is um apparently completely public like you can you can look at it yourself it's open source

01:11:41.060 and it wasn't trained the way ai is trained i think this is what he's referring to it was just trained on

01:11:48.260 the ais so somehow you can use the ais to train it now i'm guessing but this is just a guess

01:11:56.580 that since the point of an ai is to look for these patterns in the real world you you have to start with

01:12:04.100 all the real world stuff you can absorb and then you can find a bunch of patterns

01:12:08.980 but by the time you've created the ai it's a bunch of patterns so if you use another ai and you want

01:12:17.060 to train it you could skip all of the looking at the details and just look at the patterns and copy them

01:12:24.980 and apparently that works so well that you don't need a data center to do your ai you just need a normal

01:12:32.180 computer and you put this code on it and it runs a it runs an ai that's apparently comparable or better

01:12:38.500 to the commercial ones now uh i should also admit that while i held some nvidia stock for a while

01:12:49.620 several months got a nice gain i got out of it and the reason i got out of it is because in the back

01:12:56.500 of my mind i could not believe that it wouldn't be disrupted by something like this so on one hand

01:13:06.020 you need a hundred billion dollars to build a data center to have the best ai on the other hand

01:13:12.900 this one that costs nothing it costs nothing it's free it's open source you can get this one

01:13:19.780 for nothing and all it will do is see if there's any new patterns developed by the 100 billion dollar

01:13:26.260 data center so do they even need chips how many nvidia chips do you need if your ai runs on my personal

01:13:36.820 computer and the answer is none the answer is none now ai could maybe get further trained by more

01:13:47.140 things happening but i don't think people are that interesting and i think we just repeat what we do all

01:13:52.740 the time and it's i think we probably were at the end of training so if we're at the end of training

01:13:59.860 and this free one can take all of the value that the hundreds of billions of dollars took to produce

01:14:07.940 and it can just clone it and it will work forever because the patterns away of the way humans talk

01:14:14.980 and think don't really change that much so what is nvidia worth if there's a free version that doesn't

01:14:24.100 need any chips now i don't know enough about ai to know if what i said makes sense

01:14:30.340 so i'll give you a big i'll give you a big caution don't buy or sell any stocks based on what i just

01:14:37.060 said if you know my history sometimes i get lucky but it's probably luck yeah you don't listen to

01:14:44.740 individuals about individual stocks it's a really bad idea and i'm an individual i'm talking about an

01:14:50.260 individual stock so don't make a decision based on that

01:14:53.460 in related ai and this is fascinating um if you're not following mark andreessen you're really

01:15:03.540 missing a tremendous show because he's he's got incredible intellectual weight plus a knowledge

01:15:10.660 across all the relevant everything so his opinions are just way better than other people's opinions in a

01:15:16.500 whole bunch of domains and he's he's sort of come out of the shadows and he's becoming more of a

01:15:22.500 public figure like sax or like elon and wow is he adding value almost everything you post is either

01:15:30.100 interesting or we're funny but i'm going to tell you his take he says that ai won't take our jobs

01:15:37.780 now i love it because it's contrarian but his argument as best i can reproduce it is that there

01:15:45.620 have been two times in our history when we were sure that all the jobs were going to go away

01:15:50.740 one was when we started shipping jobs to other countries so we were going to downsize all our good

01:15:55.940 jobs and everybody to be poor now it did devastate parts of the country you know rust belt etc but we

01:16:03.380 still added jobs so the total number of jobs went up even as we were shipping our jobs out as fast as

01:16:09.860 we could so when people said that will make the jobs go away well it didn't i mean it wasn't ideal

01:16:17.540 and we do want to bring manufacturing back but it seemed obvious that it would reduce the number of jobs

01:16:24.340 but it didn't secondly as mark andreason points out in the 2000s we had a lot of robots you know not

01:16:33.860 the smart ones but the ones who could do assembly line stuff and sure enough robots became an enormously

01:16:40.340 important part of manufacturing but employment went up so every time we think there's some big change in

01:16:49.860 society that will certainly get rid of all the jobs we created more jobs than we ever had

01:16:57.460 so andreason is speculating and predicting i guess the ai will have a similar effect it will definitely

01:17:05.700 eliminate some kinds of jobs but probably we'll just build other kinds of jobs you know somebody doing

01:17:12.500 a robot maintenance well maybe the robot could do that too so i don't know i don't know exactly how it's

01:17:17.940 going to go but then this is the more interesting part um andreason points out that if you look at all

01:17:26.580 the various technologies and industries in the united states some of the industries are zooming up in cost

01:17:34.500 like housing education and health care they're like zooming up some of them are zooming down

01:17:40.020 such as digital tvs and phones and stuff like that so what's the difference between the stuff that's

01:17:48.100 going down in price through competition and market forces etc versus ones that are just going to the moon

01:17:55.940 and part of it is that the ones that are going to the moon health care housing college food and

01:18:01.940 beverages i guess um are because they they made it illegal to use technology to get better now i need

01:18:09.460 some i asked for some clarification on that but what i think he means is there's not much stopping you

01:18:16.020 from making your television cost less especially if it's made in another country there's not much

01:18:21.780 there's not much that affects that but if you if you tried to make a change in health care well now the

01:18:29.620 the doctors say well if you did that then there would be fewer doctors so so the ama might be against it

01:18:38.180 because they want they want to keep they want to support their doctors maybe there's some insurance

01:18:42.500 problem maybe there's some other bureaucratic problem uh you take um education

01:18:47.540 if colleges really wanted to lower prices and they're really competing in a real world

01:18:55.860 we would already be trained by ai and you know the the teachers would be less part of it so i guess

01:19:02.900 the argument is that wherever there's an industry that is sort of constipated either by union

01:19:10.100 or a set of regulations you know housing is more about regulations um health education

01:19:17.540 at least at least at the lower level is more about unions but there's like some big force that's

01:19:22.900 stopping you from automating and if you don't automate you go right in the toilet so very interesting

01:19:31.140 hypothesis i got a question for you i'm going to add my own futuristic um prediction how can amazon survive

01:19:41.940 the age of ai because think about why you go to amazon you go to amazon to easily find a product

01:19:52.820 well ai is going to find the product no matter where it is it doesn't have to be on amazon if you

01:19:57.460 have a website and you're selling the product ai and a search engine will find it so you don't need

01:20:03.860 it you don't need amazon to find a product and then um but amazon makes it really easy to compare

01:20:12.740 so you know which one's better you look at the reviews and stuff but the reviews are often fake

01:20:18.420 so can you really compare but ai can compare ai can look at all the comments ever made

01:20:25.860 it might even be able to determine which ones are real if it can figure that out and it can compare

01:20:30.820 any two products just like amazon and it would do it instantly and just on demand but now the other

01:20:37.620 thing that amazon has is you know they keep your credit card information and you can just do one

01:20:42.660 click and your address is already in there so it's just the easiest best buying experience

01:20:48.740 ai can do that you only have to tell ai what credit card you want to use and what your address is and

01:20:55.060 then it'll know it for the next time so instead of one click you just say to your eye your ai okay buy it

01:21:02.660 why do you need one click if you could just say oh that's good okay buy that one

01:21:10.100 how about shipping costs there might be a period where the only thing that amazon has going for it

01:21:16.260 is low shipping costs but if you sell on amazon don't they take 30 i don't know it might depend

01:21:25.460 on products but if you took 30 off your selling cost you've got some money to pay for some shipping

01:21:32.100 don't you so maybe if the only place you were selling is on amazon and then suddenly you could

01:21:38.180 sell just as much from your own private website as long as ai could find it um wouldn't you be able to

01:21:45.540 offer free shipping because you just got rid of 30 of your expenses that would have gone to amazon

01:21:52.260 now i'm sure i'm oversimplifying but here's the main point i don't see anything that amazon

01:21:58.740 would be necessary for in 10 years do you i mean nothing's gonna happen quickly

01:22:05.300 but how can amazon stay a business it seems like that would be the the first thing that would go

01:22:10.980 away i don't know now there is a little of a trust issue so maybe you'd say well amazon invented it so

01:22:19.460 i trust it but how many fake and pirated things does amazon carry now a lot a lot yeah and if you

01:22:28.260 wanted to return something usually it's just a pain in the ass to figure out how and to fill out the

01:22:34.100 labels and to take it to the post office or have fedex pick it up but if you could just tell your ai

01:22:40.340 hey print me a label and notify fedex that i've got to pick up there's your returns so

01:22:49.300 how does amazon survive i have no idea i i don't see a path again don't sell any stocks because of

01:22:57.860 something i said okay there might be there might be a good argument on the other way

01:23:04.500 all right i um i'll tell you remember that owen gregorian has the spaces right after this

01:23:11.220 so on x go to owen gregorian's account or you can see that i reposted it if you want to see it on my

01:23:18.100 account and uh go to spaces i'll just i'm just going to finish with this following story

01:23:23.780 do you hate paperwork as much as i do probably not as much because i have trouble writing with

01:23:31.940 my hand if i have to figure out fill out regular paper the old 1960s way which is often the way you

01:23:38.100 have to do it so it's like a struggle just to write because my hand problems but i also have you know

01:23:45.780 some mild adhd and dyslexia so for me to simply fill out a form is almost impossible so the other

01:23:56.100 day i got a notice in my email that there was a foreign entity it was the uk who had some royalties

01:24:02.260 for me uh that somehow got lost and they didn't have my address so they couldn't pay me so they asked

01:24:08.180 me to fill out some forms so they could give me money that i didn't know i was even owed

01:24:13.620 so i looked at the forums it's like i don't know like 12 pages of dense boxes and i said to myself

01:24:24.340 how long is it going to take me to fill out a form that was created in the uk and it's going to be

01:24:30.260 full of stuff that i don't know how to do like it'll be codes i've never heard of you know so i said

01:24:36.900 to myself all right i'm not going to be an idiot because i don't know how much the royalties are

01:24:42.260 so i first email back and i say tell me how much the royalties are before i go into this you know

01:24:48.420 painful process and i was hoping they'd say well you know it's 26 and then i was going to say oh just

01:24:56.420 keep it because there's no way it's going to be worth it 26 to fill out all the paperwork but they go

01:25:02.260 back they say uh i forget the exact number but it's like 1700 1700 and now i'm like okay you you

01:25:12.820 would not be surprised to know that i don't need 1700 and i could just say keep it but i can't really say

01:25:23.060 keep 1700 like i'm just human right so it doesn't matter if if my net worth isn't changed by 1700

01:25:31.940 i'm going to fill out some paperwork for 1700 this is free money right now it wasn't it's not a scam

01:25:38.740 it's from a reputable entity that i've worked with um so i said to myself all right the only way

01:25:45.940 the only way this is going to turn bad for me because i i cleared my calendar turned my phone

01:25:52.100 off turned all the you know went to a room where nobody could bother me so i could really focus got

01:25:57.060 my coffee got my snack and i'm going to try to fill out some paperwork damn it and so i start like all

01:26:03.620 right i'm working through page after page painstakingly filling in these box swearing and hating my life

01:26:10.100 every moment oh i wish i were doing anything but filling out a form i hate this form but i'm but i'm

01:26:16.100 making progress and then i get to always there's this point they ask you for something that you don't

01:26:24.500 even know what it is i have to put my i-band there i-b-a-n no explanation it's like a box put in your i-band

01:26:35.780 okay so now i have to go on this whole this whole treasure hunt to figure out what the freaking i-band

01:26:43.940 is and then i research it it's like well it's something your bank has so that you can do

01:26:49.620 international transactions i'm like well i thought that was a swift number oh no that's for wire transfer

01:26:55.860 this is just you know going to be deposited in your bank so i go okay so how do i get this i-band

01:27:03.620 so now i have to figure out charles schwab's um not my bank i had to figure out my bank's

01:27:10.820 process for giving me one of these i-bands nowhere can you find it on your app because i just thought

01:27:17.460 you know there's probably one of these extra extra resources or something you look for so it's

01:27:23.060 definitely not on there so i now i have to contact a live a live person to ask this question

01:27:30.180 question so i get so finally i waved and waved and you know 17 minutes and finally i get a live

01:27:37.700 person i go all right what's this i-band thing and they go that's your account number your bank account

01:27:44.580 number and i said well no it says bank account number right after it and i've already written in

01:27:50.100 my bank account number what's the i-band and he says oh it's the same as your account number

01:27:57.380 it's just your account number so i had to fill in my account number twice

01:28:05.780 once above and once below on two different lines do you know how many times i had to fill out my name

01:28:11.460 on these 12 pages yeah it needed my name on about every other page you know do you know how mad i get

01:28:21.060 when i have to write my name more than once on the same form the same form these pages will never be

01:28:27.460 separated it's one document and i had to put my name like five times so now i'm a little bit crazy

01:28:35.460 but i'm still making progress i'm like halfway through this thing and i'm not quitting oh my god

01:28:41.780 i've decided you know sometimes i say you want something sometimes you decide and i said to myself

01:28:48.260 the only thing that can stop me now is if i get to the last thing on the form and it's impossible

01:28:56.340 and man is that going to make me mad if the last thing on the form is like something you actually can't

01:29:01.060 do which is very typical for this situation i i'm telling myself don't look ahead don't look ahead

01:29:09.700 don't be distracted but man i hope that last thing isn't as bad as i hope it is and then i got to the last

01:29:17.060 thing and i said if you're a uk resident we've got to charge you this 20 vat tax and i'm thinking

01:29:28.180 well i don't want to pay a 20 vat tax because i already have to pay 50 income tax if i pay the

01:29:35.700 vat tax too it's 20 off the top and then what's left my own government will take 50 of that's my

01:29:43.460 current tax rate so they're gonna take 70 not approximately 70 of my money so suddenly the total

01:29:53.860 amount that i'm going to receive is now below the level where it was worth doing the work but i've

01:30:01.300 gone this far i've gone this far and the only thing they needed was a certification that i was an american

01:30:09.460 resident and then i don't have to do the vat so it wasn't good enough that i say i'm not an amer

01:30:14.500 that i say i'm an american citizen it wasn't good enough i have to have certification

01:30:20.340 so i said do i have to do a whole bunch of research now to find out how i certify it so

01:30:29.220 i go to the internet and i start researching how do i certify it and it says well you use this form

01:30:36.500 download this form and then you apply to the government and the government will send you another

01:30:41.860 form that's the one that you would send into them to show that you're certified and then it said

01:30:48.180 you should expect that to take i think it was through three months or something

01:30:57.540 i can't remember what the timing was but it was weeks in the future if not months

01:31:03.860 and i would have to keep this document that is almost completely filled out and in a few months i

01:31:09.700 won't even remember why i was waiting for something i'm not going to keep anywhere in my house

01:31:17.380 a 12-page document for months sitting on the surface waiting for that one document to come in

01:31:23.620 so i can complete the form which by the way before i send it in i don't even know if it's right

01:31:30.340 because the most likely outcome is i get another email that says you filled it out wrong

01:31:35.300 you forgot to sign something you should have put in a number you put in the wrong number

01:31:39.540 so i don't even think it's going to work so now i'm down to the choice it gives you the option and

01:31:46.660 it tells you very directly if you don't want to prove you're a resident of the other country

01:31:51.940 you can just go ahead and pay the 20 of that

01:31:56.820 imagine how i felt knowing that i had to give the uk 20 of my money

01:32:02.820 or wait weeks for a bunch of paperwork that i'd rather put a steel spike through my forehead

01:32:12.340 than to wait and complete what do you think i did how do you think i handled it

01:32:21.220 20 vat tax fuck you and give it to me because i'm not going to spend another second on this damn thing

01:32:28.500 so i just printed it and saved it and took the 20 hit so i'm going to get you know ten dollars

01:32:35.300 at the end of it and spend my whole fucking day now this story is not about me and it's not about

01:32:41.380 this little situation this is about trump's meeting in la where it became incredibly clear that the

01:32:48.420 government was the entire obstacle to doing anything that made sense and trump did a masterful

01:32:54.820 job and understanding that and trying to fix it this is everywhere now you might say to me scott

01:33:02.180 why didn't you just hire your bookkeeper your accountant to do it very simply they would charge

01:33:07.460 me more than the amount i would get in the check so there wasn't really any small business way to do it

01:33:14.420 you know if if it had been part of you know lots of other business maybe i would have thrown it on the

01:33:18.980 pile you can't really get anything done in terms of a small business even the simplest things the

01:33:27.860 government is just so burdensome and it makes me think that what we need is some kind of special low

01:33:35.620 regulation state where if we could just pick one state that has reasonably good transportation and you

01:33:42.100 know access to water i guess to say all right let's just have one place that you could build a

01:33:48.820 manufacturing plant starting tomorrow if you wanted and we would just say make sure you don't do it too

01:33:54.740 dangerously okay got it maybe just cover it with insurance instead of government mandates so yeah the

01:34:02.740 the problem that the pacific palisades uncovered is part of this massive incompetence problem that the

01:34:10.660 country is suffering from and i don't think anybody but trump could understand it well enough and

01:34:16.100 care about it well enough and be strong enough to do something about it and it's the only way we're going

01:34:21.220 to ever be competitive we have we have painted ourselves in a completely doomed economic situation

01:34:30.820 we have to fix the regulation problem we got to get the government out of our pants

01:34:37.140 i mean you know it's always been true there's no time in my life when i wouldn't have said that

01:34:43.700 but it's just reached monumental proportions i mean you just can't really do anything

01:34:51.300 in the business world so that by the way is all i have for today

01:34:57.060 um thanks for joining and remember owen gregorian has the spaces right after this on x he's probably

01:35:04.180 already running over there and firing it up i'm going to say a few words to the people on locals

01:35:08.980 privately but uh i won't i won't be long so that you can go over and listen to owen if you'd like

01:35:14.980 or listen to everybody else talking it's not just owen all right everybody else thanks for joining

01:35:19.860 thanks for joining i'll see you again tomorrow same time same place

01:35:30.660 you

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - January 25, 2025

Episode 2731 CWSA 01⧸25⧸25

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