Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2754 CWSA 02⧸18⧸25

00:00:00.000 comments

00:00:02.480 all right we're ready

00:00:07.360 good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of human civilization

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00:00:45.800 it's called the simultaneous sip and it happens now go

00:00:50.000 well i don't know what's going to happen today my brain's not working at 100

00:01:01.420 yesterday was kind of a sick day

00:01:04.160 but today i'm at least barely functional so back at it if you're uh subscribed to the dilbert comic

00:01:14.000 which you can do there on x just go to go to my account on x and you'll see the button you'd see

00:01:21.060 that the pointy air boss hired a hypnotist to hypnotize their ai and to teach it persuasion

00:01:28.940 that hypnotist you might notice looks a lot like me coincidence total coincidence

00:01:36.660 so anyway if you're following dilbert look for the hypnotist who looks like me he causes trouble

00:01:42.760 um according to the babylon b i think the babylon b was pointing to a real poll

00:01:49.520 but it's hard to tell what's real these days uh there's a poll that said 26 percent of americans

00:01:55.160 still trust the media babylon b calls that a disturbing poll

00:01:59.740 that you still trust the media now of course you know i always say that 25 percent of the people

00:02:08.840 in every poll 25 percent will get totally the wrong answer you know if there's a right answer

00:02:14.800 and uh this is one that has a right answer if you're trusting the media you really haven't been

00:02:21.880 paying attention so yeah about a quarter of uh every poll that's exactly the wrong answer

00:02:29.200 so there's a tv show i think it's only on apple tv called severance and people kept mentioning it to

00:02:38.320 me and saying hey why aren't you watching that severance series it's great and i wasn't interested

00:02:46.360 until uh michael malice described it as he said severance is superb it's lost meets dilbert and then i

00:02:54.760 thought well i gotta watch that and it's also weird because one of the actors is adam scott

00:03:01.140 kind of weird isn't it that somebody would be in a show that has a dilbert-esque part to it and his

00:03:08.920 name is adam scott well i was all about ready to watch it until i saw some other people giving their

00:03:16.880 comments about it and now i'm not interested you know if somebody says yeah it's really slow

00:03:23.940 and nothing happens i'm not going to watch that but i never watched lost so being half dilbert is good

00:03:33.760 being half lost is sort of a reason not to watch it so probably won't watch it

00:03:39.680 how many of you saw the uh the put down that jd vance did on uh meddy hassan who used to work

00:03:47.840 at msnbc but i think he got fired or quit don't remember but uh here's what meddy said

00:03:56.720 he said uh hey jd vance he said this on x hey jd vance i know you're busy lecturing the europeans on free

00:04:03.120 speech but have you seen this and it's a it's a report about the ap being kicked out of the

00:04:10.640 press briefings and jd vance answers with this on x now this is the vice vice president i want

00:04:19.520 his first words yes dummy

00:04:23.920 yes dummy i think there's a difference between not giving a reporter a seat in the white house

00:04:28.320 press briefing room and jailing people for dissenting views the latter is a threat to

00:04:33.360 free speech the former is not hope that helps i like how helpful he is hey dummy 0.67

00:04:41.200 now do you think that a vice president could have ever said yes dummy to a member of the media

00:04:51.360 before the trump administration but now it just makes sense it just seemed completely normal

00:04:58.640 so elon musk has proposed that when he visits uh fort knox to see if the gold is really there

00:05:07.360 as part of the doge project that maybe they should live stream it

00:05:12.000 now i don't know if that's a good idea or not because could you tell by just looking at it that

00:05:19.200 it's all there i guess the fun would be if there's none there imagine how much we spend on security if

00:05:26.000 there's no gold in there that would be the funniest story in all of america that we've

00:05:30.640 been spending like probably 10 million dollars a year i'm just guessing to guard a building that

00:05:37.120 didn't have anything in it that would be just the perfect ending yeah and of course al capone's vault

00:05:44.640 is what we're all going to be thinking about so i've got a feeling it's like a reverse al capone's

00:05:50.720 vault so al capone's vault you remember heraldo was opening the vault that belonged to al capone

00:05:59.200 and then we're going to see if there was any cool things inside

00:06:03.680 what he found was there was nothing inside so this would be like a reverse al capone's

00:06:09.760 thing if we find out that there's nothing inside that would be the surprise

00:06:16.480 again is that a reverse or is that the same i don't know my brain's not working today

00:06:23.360 one way grok 3 is out way better than grok 2 and according to the metrics i saw it would be the

00:06:31.600 best ai out there i guess what uh must is doing right with ai is he's just built a better training

00:06:40.400 um technology platform so he's just got a more efficient way and a bigger way of training it

00:06:47.440 so i guess there's a pretty good chance it's going to stay ahead so i haven't tried it out fully but i

00:06:54.000 asked him some questions this morning and he gave me good answers now i understand that some people have

00:06:59.120 been having conversations with it but i don't see that option so am i only imagining that you can talk to

00:07:06.320 it you can talk to it by holding down the microphone i found that option but i didn't see an option for

00:07:13.840 just talking to it maybe there is i don't know so we'll watch that um on x

00:07:24.000 a user called uh indra asked me a question well asked a question i decided to answer it why do you

00:07:31.280 think it's so hard to get these models that would be the ai models to write or understand humor you 1.00

00:07:38.000 think reasoning would help there it made it worse now i don't think that reasoning helps you write

00:07:44.960 humor exactly so i thought i'd take a stab at it you've heard a version of this before but i think

00:07:50.080 i did it better this time so this is my version of why ai can't do humor number one the hidden problem

00:07:58.320 is that humor depends on the personality of the humorist in fiction it depends on the personality

00:08:04.800 of the character so dilbert is a character and when dilbert does nerdy things where he doesn't

00:08:10.800 understand how things work in the social world but he's really good with technology that's somebody you

00:08:17.040 know if if you watched the tv show friends or seinfeld you saw that each of the characters have their own

00:08:25.600 unique personalities and a joke that one character could do wouldn't work with others so one of the

00:08:32.800 characters in friends was joey who was a famous womanizer and he could make humor just by saying

00:08:40.160 how you doing you know because it was a running gag and he said it funny but ai can't do that because ai is

00:08:47.520 not joey and ai also doesn't have a funny voice if you took away the exact way that joey said it

00:08:56.000 you know which i can't do in my impression yeah you doing it's sort of the exact way he says it that

00:09:01.520 makes it work seinfeld same thing if you took away seinfeld's voice that's just sort of perfectly

00:09:09.840 designed or maybe developed it over time it's perfectly designed for humor

00:09:14.160 if you looked at let's say the george character on seinfeld as soon as you know what that character

00:09:21.840 is about you know he's kind of selfish and small and just looking for an angle and stuff like that

00:09:27.840 then anything he does that's in that context is funnier so ai doesn't have a personality

00:09:33.760 so if it had a personality it could do humor within the personality and that might work but there are other

00:09:40.800 problems um the personality has to have flaws so a personality where you're just really good at stuff

00:09:50.000 that's not really gonna work for humor you have to have flaws so you have to be selfish that's usually

00:09:56.880 the best one selfish uh uncaring uh lacking empathy so basically negative personality characteristics now in

00:10:07.120 the case of dilbert he is really good at technology but he's really bad at understanding anything like

00:10:14.000 dating or you know social interaction so that's a weakness it's a it's a flaw and ai can't present

00:10:22.240 itself with flaws because you wouldn't trust it you say oh it seems like you're a little emotional or

00:10:29.760 something it would just seem too human i guess so no flaws in the personality and then a lot of the

00:10:37.680 best jokes involve a thought that people have had something that people have thought about but for

00:10:44.320 whatever reason nobody's ever said out loud that's like the holy grail of humor is to find the thing that

00:10:51.040 people are thinking but nobody's ever put it into words before now how could you teach ai to do that

00:10:59.120 because ai only looks at things that do exist and have been written down you can't train ai on thoughts

00:11:07.040 so and and also once somebody says it is no longer usable right so the first time somebody makes a good

00:11:14.000 joke about you know have you ever thought you're in this situation and blah blah blah well once you've

00:11:20.400 done a joke about that situation it's sort of spoiled you can't can't do another one so

00:11:26.480 so so you can't train ai on thoughts that's a big that's a big problem

00:11:35.040 and then uh of course maybe the biggest problem well is that ai is not allowed to be 0.89

00:11:41.680 edgy or even mildly offensive or dangerous and a lot of what makes humor funny is that you say to yourself oh i

00:11:51.200 believe he or she said that oh you're gonna get in so much trouble oh i'll bet you're gonna get

00:11:56.480 canceled oh what is your wife gonna say when you get home oh what is your boyfriend gonna say once

00:12:02.400 he sees this joke so a lot of humor is just doing dangerous things but the trick is to do it in a way

00:12:09.920 that's not really that dangerous but it looks dangerous to other people there's a humorist

00:12:15.520 whose name i can't remember but it doesn't matter to the story who wrote very funny books you'll probably

00:12:22.000 tell me who it is in the comments um and it would be about his family so his young family life and when

00:12:29.280 you read it you say to yourself oh my goodness how in the world does he get away with writing these

00:12:35.680 hugely insulting but very funny stories about his early life in his family about how weird they were

00:12:42.080 and all that and i think the answer is they'd already worked about with his family and they knew

00:12:48.240 that it was you know some exaggerated version of reality not really them so that's the trick

00:12:53.680 yeah and ai can't do that so ai can't be edgy it can't be offensive it can't be dangerous because ai can't

00:13:01.600 be killed so you don't really worry about being embarrassed or fired or anything like that so it

00:13:07.440 takes away all the danger so danger is important to humor um thinking about let's say uh chappelle

00:13:16.400 doing jokes in the about trans now even though the jokes may have been inoffensive because he he's so 0.99

00:13:27.040 good at crafting things that are close to the edge but not over it the the fact that you make jokes

00:13:34.240 about the trans community it seemed really dangerous as in this could be the end of your career just 1.00

00:13:41.200 just one wrong word there and you're gonna get so cancelled but he didn't because he's an expert

00:13:47.440 at going up to the line and knowing where that line is hey i can never do that

00:13:53.920 it would never it would never be able to feel what is too far it's a feel and the reason there's only one

00:14:00.800 chappelle is that there's only one chappelle there's just one there there aren't many there are very few

00:14:08.960 humans in the whole world who can write commercial grade humor so if you look at all the humor in the

00:14:16.800 world like if you're an ai and you're training on it 99 of it wouldn't be that funny because that's

00:14:23.920 what most people do when they're writing you know they think they're funny but they're not

00:14:29.920 so if you train it on all the all the humor alleged humor that people think is funny but isn't that's

00:14:36.640 going to be a problem a lot of the stories a lot of the humor comes from stories so somebody will

00:14:44.880 say i went to the store yesterday and this that happened ai doesn't have any stories so ai never

00:14:51.360 went to the store yesterday ai never got married ai never had kids so all those things that are a story

00:14:59.520 that make you say oh oh god that happened that happened to me

00:15:03.120 hey ai can't do that because ai has no experiences that you share you don't know what it's like to be

00:15:11.120 an ai it doesn't know what it's like to be you so if you can't make it you know really understand your

00:15:16.640 situation you can't write humor about it and you know ai only understands that kind of a uh let's say a

00:15:25.200 top level but to really understand how something feels it can't get there um and then lastly when

00:15:35.760 i write jokes the way i do it and i don't know if this is true for other people but it might be

00:15:42.080 um i'll think of the situation and it has to make me sort of laugh before i write the joke

00:15:49.520 so the punchline comes last so i'm thinking oh that would be funny i know i can do something with

00:15:54.720 that i don't think ai could recognize that because it's literally an internal feeling so i'll look at

00:16:01.920 a situation and i go uh you know you have that little uh beavis and butthead laugh and you know

00:16:10.240 that just with the right words you can turn that into something really funny

00:16:14.800 so ai can't do that because it doesn't have the beavis and butthead automatic reaction

00:16:21.920 that probably is telling you it's something that's gonna work and um so when i cycle through punch

00:16:29.840 lines for example i say okay maybe if he says this maybe if he says that what i'm really doing is

00:16:34.960 checking my i'll say gut but my entire body response so if i cycle through suppose dilbert says

00:16:43.760 this nothing suppose dilbert says that nothing suppose dilbert aha and then i actually laugh

00:16:52.000 like okay that's the one so so ai can't test as it goes to see if it's setting the exact mark but a

00:17:00.400 human can um so what's that leave the only thing that's left for uh ai is word play and puns that's

00:17:09.680 mostly word play and reheated dad jokes because it has to be completely inoffensive not dangerous

00:17:18.000 not related to any stories that you've had not related to any personal experience just the most

00:17:23.760 bland bland boring thing just dad jokes which are mostly wordplay so i don't see a path

00:17:31.840 a path for ai to become funny i would love the challenge though so i'll reiterate my offer for

00:17:40.560 one billion dollars i will help train your ai to be funny one billion dollars now here here's the funny

00:17:49.280 part of that and oh and part of my offer is that if i can't do it and it's not funny and you could be

00:17:56.000 and whoever is going to pay me the billion can be the judge of that if it's not funny if it's not

00:18:01.200 funny you owe me nothing it's free so that's pretty good service right because if you had the first

00:18:08.800 funny ai you don't think you'd make an extra billion of course you would if you could have an ai that was

00:18:16.960 literally funny like not the way the current ones are that's worth probably lots of billions of dollars

00:18:24.480 so for one billion dollars i'll offer to make yours the only funny ai we'll see searchlight pictures

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00:19:06.960 out democrats for being super racist you know carville is one of the few people i'd like to interview

00:19:16.240 you know usually usually usually i'll go to hell yeah just go to hell um looking at the comments 0.89

00:19:32.240 there there's some people who are so toxic

00:19:36.000 that it's hard to understand it's just hard to understand the level of toxicity

00:19:40.400 but just go straight to hell you know you know who i'm talking to all right uh so james carville 0.87

00:19:48.880 said that uh when the democrats refer to people of color he says that's racist because it makes the 0.99

00:19:57.360 assumption that people of color are all the same and he uses the example you know are you saying that

00:20:03.520 the nigerians and the indonesians are basically the same as long as they're not white they're basically 0.95

00:20:10.320 all just non-white people that are the same and of course he's right and but i think it's way deeper 0.99

00:20:16.480 than that i think he's he's close to the answer and the answer is that every single thing democrats do

00:20:24.160 is built in that identity model so if you start with identity it's going to be racist because that's what

00:20:32.240 identity is if you can't get rid of the identity politics you'll never get rid of the racism that's built

00:20:38.480 into the into the world view so james carville is probably the most helpful people helpful

00:20:46.800 person to the democrats and i would love to know if they're paying attention i have a feeling that

00:20:51.680 they're not and that nothing he says matters because he's an old white guy which of course might be his

00:20:58.480 point too well dr burks remember dr burks she was uh fauci's uh little uh right-hand person there

00:21:10.480 and didn't you always suspect that they weren't telling you the truth now some of this might be a

00:21:17.680 repeat but the vigilant fox did a good uh thread today putting it all together so burks has sort of

00:21:24.240 uh been talking and here's some of the things we learned from dr burks so she was the white house

00:21:32.880 coronavirus response coordinator under uh the first trump administration so she admitted during a recent

00:21:39.440 appearance uh on pierce morgan uh that the government uh botched the uh covid response by overlooking early

00:21:48.960 treatments early treatments which would have been ivermectin i don't know so but i didn't we all know

00:22:00.720 that i feel like every single person in the public knew that something less than a vaccination which was

00:22:09.280 not really a vaccination something less than a shot probably would make sense it's amazing i can't tell if

00:22:17.600 they lied about it so that they could get the shots in it to everybody it looks like that's what

00:22:22.880 happened or did they actually not know or is it a motivated ignorance where they're sort of motivated

00:22:32.320 to say there's nothing else that could work i don't know it's kind of a gray area and then she said

00:22:41.040 um and then she said that the claims from the biden administration that the the jabs of efficacy were

00:22:51.920 based on hope not science so the idea that the shots would stop the transmission was never based on any

00:23:00.240 science and and burks actually says it was developed specifically to keep the most vulnerable people alive

00:23:10.240 it wasn't it wasn't even designed to stop the spread imagine finding that out now this is the well i would

00:23:19.360 go further so if they developed it not for people who were let's say young and healthy and then they

00:23:26.160 forced on people that are young and healthy i actually think the death penalty would be in order i think

00:23:32.480 you should be murdered um well no not murdered but i have to go through the legal system but if you lied 0.67

00:23:39.840 to the public about something that's definitely going to kill some of them and provide no benefit

00:23:45.520 whatsoever and they knew it because they developed the thing not to be necessary for young healthy people

00:23:52.320 and that's what burks is saying she's basically saying they knew they knew it wasn't for young

00:23:59.280 people and they also knew it wasn't going to stop the spread and then they told us it was going

00:24:06.480 to stop the spread so you better give it to young people that should be the death penalty 1.00

00:24:12.240 and the only reason it's not i guess is because we're not used to treating medical stuff like

00:24:20.880 like a crime but this is way more like a crime than a medical treatment to me the domain is crime

00:24:29.280 if you say the domain is health care and sometimes you get some wrong well i don't want people to be

00:24:35.520 punished for you know a good faith health care opinion that ends up being wrong i don't want people

00:24:42.400 punished for a mistake but that's not what we're being reported on no that's not what's reported

00:24:49.520 what's reported is they knew exactly what they were doing and did it anyway

00:24:55.840 i would imagine that there are at least 20 people who should be subject to the death sentence for that

00:25:02.080 now it would depend on what state and you know what you would call it but this is murder it's murder

00:25:10.080 isn't it if you know people are going to die and you do it anyway and you know that it was not even

00:25:16.240 meant for the purpose that you told everybody to do it isn't that murder i don't know

00:25:23.600 so i'm not sure how much of that is new most of you knew that but to hear burke say it out loud

00:25:31.360 as the new element that they knew because i was still open to the possibility that it was a fog of

00:25:37.680 war situation and maybe they didn't know what they were doing they they just hoped it would work

00:25:44.080 and she actually says that the the thought that it would stop the spread was based on a hope

00:25:51.520 they could have mentioned that to us how about they tell us next time if it's just a hope

00:25:56.480 anyway meanwhile um over in saudi arabia i guess russia's uh and russia russia's some of russia's top

00:26:07.440 people are meeting with some of our top people to talk about ukraine the fun part is that zelensky

00:26:16.240 and europe were not invited the the parties which would have the most you know the most uh you think

00:26:24.160 the most interest but uh then separately i saw a note that zelensky was invited but not till wednesday

00:26:32.160 tomorrow is that true was zelensky belatedly invited i'm seeing a yes but i don't know if it's to that

00:26:43.040 question or not so um i saw a report that said that but i don't know about that and uh one of the russians

00:26:50.800 says the main thing is to begin a real normalization of relations between us and washington

00:26:58.720 now i saw ian bremer saying that if you don't invite ukraine to the conversation about what

00:27:04.960 happens in ukraine that can't possibly work i'm i'm paraphrasing but that i think that was the essence of

00:27:11.760 it that is sort of a non-starter if ukraine is not involved in the discussion of what happens to ukraine

00:27:18.960 but one of the ideas that's being floated is that there would be an election in ukraine

00:27:27.440 do you invite the guy who canceled elections so he can stay in power to do to help you decide whether

00:27:34.240 it should be an election to remove him from power i feel like i feel like trump is just being practical

00:27:42.400 meaning that if you if you put ukraine in the middle of this conversation ukraine will

00:27:49.360 i think i think ukraine would sabotage it because if you pose the lenski there is lenski is going to

00:27:55.760 say okay i can't i can't be out of power because then people will figure out what i did and i'm not

00:28:01.680 going to survive so you don't want the person who doesn't want the war to end and doesn't want to be

00:28:08.800 removed from power to be deciding how the war ends and how he is removed from power because i'm not

00:28:14.320 sure he would get elected but the funniest thing about this is that either russia or the united states

00:28:22.560 believes that there would be anything like a fair election do you think the united states is is

00:28:29.200 pushing for the election because we know we're going to rig it

00:28:31.760 so it doesn't matter if there's an election or not i don't know it feels like it and do you think

00:28:38.960 russia could rig the election in ukraine would they have do you think they have that much reach at this

00:28:44.720 point maybe um if russia allegedly interfered with american elections although i think in a very minor way

00:28:54.640 couldn't they have some influence on ukraine probably they must have lots of spies there by now

00:29:02.080 so i i wonder how much of that is just for theater to make it look like there was a change of

00:29:08.240 leadership but really it's you know orchestrated from behind the curtain anyway we'll see where that

00:29:16.720 goes harry enton at cnn was talking about the drop in support for ukraine and i guess since 2022

00:29:27.040 the percentage of the u.s says that uh that says the u.s is doing too much to help ukraine uh was only

00:29:36.640 seven percent in 2022 so only seven percent thought we were doing too much to help ukraine and now it's

00:29:43.840 up to 41 and among the gop it's higher than 60 so if you're president trump and over 60 percent of

00:29:55.360 the people who are your base say we're already doing too much he needs to do a little less and

00:30:01.520 that's what he's aiming to do uh you know the not including zelensky sort of makes sense to me because

00:30:11.040 he seems more like a puppet than than a player but uh not including europe is funnier because europe is

00:30:20.640 such a mess that what is europe what exactly is europe is that every country is it the european union

00:30:30.240 would they do a good job of representing europe or would it be 15 new opinions thrown into a

00:30:37.440 negotiation which couldn't possibly work so here's something that trump knows that i'm not sure everybody

00:30:44.560 else knows you can't negotiate with lots of people in the room that's not a thing two people can

00:30:51.600 negotiate and then maybe if they come up with something they can sell it to other people but

00:30:56.320 you can't put europe and zelensky and russia and the united states in a room and come up with anything

00:31:01.920 you would come up with nothing guaranteed that wouldn't work

00:31:04.720 i apologize i'm still recovering from a cold

00:31:12.240 so i think if russia and the united states can make a comprehensive deal that includes ukraine but

00:31:19.760 maybe it includes other interests of the united states and russia so that we've got something bigger

00:31:25.120 you know something about the the long-term relationship between the two countries

00:31:30.320 then we've got something to present then you go to europe and you say how about this now if if at that

00:31:38.800 point europe says no way well maybe they have some good points maybe you learn something um

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00:32:01.920 than you think scott loved himself some zelensky i i love it when people hallucinate opposite of my

00:32:10.800 opinions can you tell me one time i was a zelensky supporter not once and and he had somebody over

00:32:19.920 in rumble oh scott loves zelensky have i said anything like that to me he's obviously corrupt 0.55

00:32:27.440 obviously corrupt so fix your act 0.88

00:32:34.720 byron york had a good summation of why the european leaders might not be invited

00:32:39.760 this is from his post on x he said european leaders are angry they're not included in ukraine talks

00:32:45.840 they feel they're they feel they're no ideas no agreement on how to proceed but plenty of platitudes

00:32:51.200 perspective would be a valuable part of the negotiations

00:32:57.040 yes we don't need platitudes what what is your what would europe say that we don't think is obvious

00:33:06.640 um we need to support ukraine otherwise russia will overrun us okay got it how about we have the

00:33:13.520 meeting without you now that we know everything you have to say well you know got to fight for

00:33:18.240 democracy okay platitudes platitudes we get it we get it so they don't really have anything to offer

00:33:27.680 that i can see anyway here's uh according to uh some breaking news the mexican senate has approved

00:33:38.800 the entry of the united states special forces into mexico now when i read that headline i thought to

00:33:45.040 myself oh oh i'm surprised because i thought there's no way that our special forces would be at least

00:33:52.880 invited into mexico and then i realized what's really happening when you first heard that special our

00:34:00.240 u.s special forces were going to fight the cartel did you think that was real i think it was a real

00:34:06.720 intention i think when trump said it was real i also assumed that once he started to implement it

00:34:14.720 there would be some let's say internal counterpoints that would be that would arise and so let me tell

00:34:21.200 you what i think was the worst case scenario the worst case scenario is if we wanted to send in our

00:34:27.760 special forces to crush the cartel but instead mexico talked us into training their own military

00:34:36.720 with our special forces to go attack the cartels and that's what it is so the special forces are

00:34:44.800 invited in not to fight that's not approved by mexico but rather to train the mexican military

00:34:52.720 to be better at fighting the cartels now you all see the problem with that right that's the worst case

00:34:59.200 scenario because if you train the mexican military how to fight the cartel they can go get a job with 0.68

00:35:06.960 the cartel that's way better than what if they're getting paid to be in the military and uh some say

00:35:13.200 that that's what happened with the zeta cartel they got these people were trained by special forces and

00:35:18.720 then just became cartels if you believe that the mexican military was independent and meant to do

00:35:27.360 you know intended to take out the cartels well then it might make sense but given that the mexican 1.00

00:35:34.880 military doesn't seem to have any ability or even desire to take on the cartels i kind of have to

00:35:40.640 assume that the cartel already owns the military so my worst case scenario seems to have come to pass

00:35:49.360 we're training mexico how to resist military attacks i don't think this could be worse honestly so

00:35:58.480 i'm 100 opposed to training the mexican military to be better 100 opposed and this looks to me like a

00:36:05.920 gigantic mistake that probably started down as good intentions but then when the real world got in the

00:36:12.880 way like well maybe the best we can do is train the mexicans and then it will look like we're doing 1.00

00:36:18.160 something but really just making everything worse so it looks like making everything worse to me

00:36:24.080 that's what it looks like also apparently cnn's reporting that the cia has been covertly flying

00:36:33.680 these reaper drones over mexico now the reaper drones are not weaponized in this case

00:36:39.760 maybe ever i don't know but they're not weaponized uh they're just observing and i guess they've been

00:36:45.600 doing that for a long time but observing them doesn't seem to help does it and i i feel like

00:36:53.520 we probably already knew this and drones were doing some surveillance there um did you see the video

00:37:00.000 the horrifying shocking video of the delta connections flight that had a crash landing in toronto at the

00:37:07.520 airport but it looks like it came in too heavy and just ripped its wings off and ended up upside down

00:37:16.560 and the amazing part is that uh 80 people were aboard the flight but possibly only 18 got injuries

00:37:26.240 so there was a huge fireball but it looks like the fireball kind of stayed mostly away from the cabin

00:37:35.360 and then then there were images of the people as you know getting off in the emergency

00:37:40.080 and it was pretty impressive so the good news is uh even though it landed it landed upside down when it

00:37:48.080 was done it was upside down so were all those people strapped in upside down in other words by the time

00:37:55.200 they had to get out were they literally trying to figure out how to get their seat belts off because

00:37:59.840 it'd be pretty hard if you're upside down so if that happened to me i would never fly again

00:38:07.280 there's not a single chance that i would ever get on an airplane if i had been on that flight

00:38:12.640 my goodness unless you want to play the odds if you play the odds you would say well what are the

00:38:19.520 odds i'd be in two plane crashes which actually is a good point all right i wasn't sure if i was going

00:38:27.040 to talk about doge today partly because i'm having doge dreams that are really unpleasant and the doge

00:38:36.480 dreams go like this there's a big claim by doge that they found some fraud or some waste and then some

00:38:45.040 other people say no you're reading it wrong you just don't know how to look at the data none of

00:38:50.160 it's true and then in my dream i kept trying to figure out what was true but of course you can't

00:38:55.920 because it's a dream and i'm getting a little bit tired of it do do any of you have doge burnout yet

00:39:04.320 or is it just because i follow the news too much i have complete doge burnout all the stories have the

00:39:11.120 same feel to them we found some big problem followed by other people saying no you didn't

00:39:18.400 you're being mistaken you're looking at the wrong thing and then i say well how do i know the difference

00:39:23.840 so here's the big one um big one is that they found uh let's see 4.7 trillion dollars in payments that

00:39:37.520 are untraceable now if you hear that there's 4.7 trillion dollars in untraceable payments the first

00:39:45.040 thing you should say is over what period of time and it wasn't in the article you really need to say

00:39:52.240 every single time you talk about numbers you have to say is that for this year or over 10 years

00:39:58.800 or over 20 years otherwise it's meaningless so the first thing i hate about the doge stuff is they

00:40:04.000 keep mixing one year of expense with multi-year and then you don't really know what happened

00:40:09.920 so i'm really pissed off about that because it makes what would be useful story is not useful

00:40:15.840 then the claim is that because it's untraceable it is certainly some big source of uh fraud

00:40:27.120 that's not the claim that's let's say the implication but is it or is it something that's just

00:40:34.640 poorly coded are we going to find out later that there was a way to track it but it was in a different

00:40:40.960 system or something like that so all of these have the fog of war problem where you think uh doge really

00:40:48.560 got it now they got the they got the good stuff and then you hear that somebody else says no they just

00:40:54.560 read it wrong i know and then there's also let's see there's also the thing with the social security

00:41:01.840 numbers there's some uh social security database that has death fields set to zero or false set to

00:41:11.760 false meaning that there's no uh death that would be measured even if the person died which would

00:41:19.840 suggest that people are using i don't know maybe expired not expired but social security numbers of dead

00:41:26.000 people but you don't know maybe because over at reddit they're saying no doge is just reading the

00:41:33.360 files wrong they don't know how to look at a cobalt database which seems unlikely that they don't know

00:41:38.160 how to do that but so i'm getting these gigantic really important sounding stories but i can't tell if

00:41:45.920 any of it's true and i'm getting a little worn out by it so i might take a i might take a let's say

00:41:52.880 a breather from reporting all the doge stuff because i just don't know what's true i do like

00:41:58.800 that they're reporting everything they find as they find it even if it's not 100 accurate or on point

00:42:05.520 because it's transparent so i like the transparency but it introduces all this error which is okay that's

00:42:12.720 your first take what what are the people who run that system say i mean are the people who are in

00:42:19.120 charge of the system do they say yeah you know you got us that's 4.7 trillion we didn't track

00:42:24.240 whatsoever no idea where it went or would they say you fool there's a different code that we use for

00:42:31.680 this kind of stuff and it's right there you just we're looking in the wrong place could go either way

00:42:37.440 so i don't know and then there's a question of whether we could find enough to balance the budget

00:42:43.680 the budget my take is not even close and i think thomas massey might be on the same page

00:42:51.200 because the congress is looking to increase increase our debt by 25 trillion is that over a

00:42:59.280 year or is that over time well it's over time but uh 10 years i think but i i'm having trouble believing

00:43:08.960 that the congress is so useless that in the context of we have to cut our expenses doge is working as

00:43:17.280 hard as possible that in that context they would be adding more expenses than i think doge is even

00:43:23.280 cutting so unbelievable we have a system where where our elected politicians can only say yes to expenses

00:43:33.920 if they say no they can't get elected so we we need to revise our system so that somebody

00:43:41.840 is making decisions that can stick and somebody can make some cuts but our congress can't

00:43:48.480 there's no real hope of that so we'll see ontario the wait is over the gold standard of online casinos has

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00:44:52.240 play responsibly um so apparently ai now has a brain decoder that can read a person's thought with a quick

00:45:02.160 scan of an almost no training so according this is according to live science skylar ware is writing about

00:45:08.560 this so i i assume this means they put sensors on your head and they try to read your thoughts and then

00:45:15.680 they could turn it into text now when you think about that your first thought is wow so cool imagine

00:45:23.120 if i could just think what i want to type and it appeared and i'd say that would be cool you know

00:45:29.680 maybe maybe you had just some little hat or glasses or something they could do that uh i know cobalt's

00:45:38.560 language you don't have to explain it to me i i know there's no such thing as a cobalt database you don't

00:45:46.800 have to be dicks about it yeah everybody i think everybody on rumble is toxic like i think all the

00:45:57.280 all the worst people in the world are on that platform anyway

00:46:02.560 um so here's my question do you think if we have that technology and we refine it a little bit more

00:46:11.360 do you think that's what it's going to be used for do you think it'll be used for typing really

00:46:15.680 quickly without using your fingers i don't i think it's going to be going to be used for job interviews

00:46:21.760 and lie detectors imagine having something that could turn your thoughts into text

00:46:26.560 while you're being interviewed by the police or a prospective employer and they say all right

00:46:33.280 could you wear this hat and i have some questions to ask um have you ever done anything that's super

00:46:40.560 racist and then the person says no no i've never done anything super racist and then then you're

00:46:46.160 watching the text uh i did this once uh thing i was like oh my god so i got a feeling

00:46:54.080 that our thoughts are now in play and i don't know how you get back from that because it's going to be

00:47:01.520 so useful if someone were lying to you in a job interview knowing that would be worth a lot of

00:47:08.880 money if somebody's lying about what crime they committed knowing that makes a big difference you

00:47:15.840 know it's somebody's freedom so yes the economics of it guarantee that your brain will be read

00:47:23.360 by sensors uh let's talk about the price of eggs

00:47:29.600 uh you know i've been avoiding this price of eggs thing because i just figure it takes care of itself

00:47:35.520 you know supply and demand plus time takes care of itself now it's bad while it's happening so i'm not

00:47:42.880 minimizing it it it's it's a big expense for a lot of people but doesn't it take care of itself

00:47:48.960 why would this be the one time it doesn't is there some great uh barrier to entry for having a chicken

00:47:57.440 so the question i wanted to ask was how long does it take a a baby chicken to

00:48:04.320 have its own eggs so apparently a baby chicken can have eggs in six months as as soon as four and a

00:48:13.680 half depending on some conditions so in theory we could take the eggs of the well the fertilized

00:48:22.400 eggs of the current chickens and in five or six months those new chickens would be laying eggs

00:48:29.600 so we should be maybe two or three six month cycles away from being back to normal and that actually

00:48:37.600 that's the way i'd like to see the information i'd like to see somebody say yeah it in one cycle

00:48:44.320 where we have new chickens six months later that would be maybe a third of the problem taken care 0.98

00:48:49.360 of we need another cycle and then a third cycle to get enough checking chickens now that assumes you 0.99

00:48:55.120 don't have avian flu and you know murder chickens or some other problem but wouldn't you like to know

00:49:01.840 that it just solves itself in 18 months because it might solve itself in 18 months i just don't know

00:49:09.040 so could be a problem that's not a problem in the long run

00:49:13.680 i saw user eric cook say this on that topic he said we have plenty of eggs in rural tennessee every

00:49:21.440 neighborhood has egg boxes take the eggs leave the money they're running three to four dollars a dozen

00:49:27.920 right now though you know i guess that's high and how much do you love that that you know you're in

00:49:36.080 the civilized part of the world and you know you you don't live next to a chicken farmer and you think 0.97

00:49:42.320 you're you're all doing good it's like yeah i'm living in the good part of the world i got grocery

00:49:47.920 stores all over the place and then in rural tennessee they have egg boxes where where they trust you

00:49:54.880 but entirely on the um on trust you take an egg and leave some money

00:50:03.760 i just love that i just love the fact that in rural tennessee this could even exist

00:50:09.920 is that sort of encouraging isn't it that there's anywhere in the world that somebody's selling eggs

00:50:15.440 on the trust basis and i won't even be there leave a dollar now if you don't have any money just take the

00:50:21.040 egg i love that well trump has added to his tariff program that he'll have reciprocal tariffs for

00:50:32.240 everything so these will be in addition to some tariffs that will be targeted for specific industries

00:50:38.720 but in general he's just going to say if you charge us this much we charge you that much but then he added

00:50:44.320 an interesting wrinkle he's treating the vat tax the value added tax that applies in europe and maybe

00:50:52.080 just europe i don't know um he's saying that that's the same as a tariff because if in order to sell into

00:50:59.040 your country or would it be buying i'm confused about the vat because we don't have that um that if you're

00:51:07.520 going to tax us or tariff it we're going to treat it like a tariff the tax is a tariff so he's adding

00:51:14.720 the tax adding what they're tariffing us to what they're charging us in vat and uh making our reciprocal

00:51:24.240 thing based on that i like it i was at first thinking why don't we just do that for everything

00:51:31.920 but but sometimes um you're really just trying to protect an industry so if you have to protect an

00:51:39.440 industry then yeah maybe you have to have some special ones on things like steel and cars or i

00:51:44.800 don't know i'm not sure which ones we're protecting but uh the rest i kind of like the idea that

00:51:52.160 we're just going to do whatever you do and if you raise it because we raised it to your level we'll just

00:51:56.640 match you we'll just keep matching you i like that that that's that's pure trump and pure common sense

00:52:05.280 i like it well over in new york state governor hochel is uh at least at least floating the idea

00:52:14.560 of removing new york city mayor uh arabs uh adams from his job eric adams and the big question is

00:52:22.480 how is that legal i asked grok if the if the governor can remove a mayor and grok says no

00:52:31.680 i'm paraphrasing a long answer but no the governor cannot remove a mayor so what exactly is she even 0.64

00:52:38.960 talking about how do you remove a mayor they were both voted the you know the mayor doesn't report to

00:52:46.080 the governor if it's not your boss how could she remove him there is there some kind of weird

00:52:54.080 impeachment thing i don't know about anyway so we'll keep keep an eye on that over in the middle

00:53:00.800 east hamas is going to release the bodies of four dead hostages uh this week and i say to myself and i

00:53:10.080 guess that would be in return from for women and children being released from israeli detention now

00:53:19.760 is it just me or do you also believe that they wouldn't be releasing

00:53:25.360 the bodies of dead hostages unless they had already released all the living ones

00:53:32.960 what do you think doesn't this mean that that they don't have any living ones left

00:53:40.320 now we can't be sure of that uh it could be that the the ones that are living are in such bad shape

00:53:47.040 that it would be worse than not releasing them at least from hamas point of view like they wouldn't 0.64

00:53:51.600 want you to see how bad the living are so whatever is going on here is just the deepest

00:54:00.080 evil whatever that is anyway so we'll keep an eye on that

00:54:04.880 according to new york post gambling addictions have soared since sport betting was legalized in

00:54:13.360 most of the u.s how many of you knew this sports betting was legalized i didn't know it until i read

00:54:19.520 that article sports betting is legalized in most of the united states when did that happen under what

00:54:27.200 administration i don't remember that happening and why would it be legalized wouldn't you know for sure

00:54:35.280 that the gambling addicts would be taken down by that of course the gambling addiction of the sword

00:54:42.560 and the gambling about uh sports i think is the most diabolical because everybody has that dunning

00:54:50.560 kruger thing you know where you think you're smarter than you are where you can uh you can look at the

00:54:58.720 sports teams and you think you know who's going to win i'm not sure that's a thing

00:55:04.640 yeah you know do you think your expertise will be like well this pitcher you know pitched a game three

00:55:10.960 days ago but he's not so good in in hot weather so you think you know something that other people don't

00:55:19.520 that's the most dangerous gambling because that's gonna you know even if you're down to your last

00:55:24.080 penny you're still gonna bet it because you think you know more than other people it couldn't be a

00:55:28.720 worse situation if it were pure gambling then it might even make more sense because nobody would

00:55:36.000 think they have a they have a good chance of winning that's what pure gambling is so something like a slot

00:55:42.560 machine some people would still be addicted to it of course as they are but at least you would know

00:55:49.680 that you couldn't use any skill to get it get an advantage so the same problem with online poker

00:55:57.440 online poker players think oh i have more skill so i can get into this and it'll pay off man that's

00:56:04.720 that's your worst combination is thinking you know something and also it's gambling you you don't want

00:56:09.920 to pair those two that's that's just like asking for trouble well in my last item here the director of the

00:56:17.360 cia john ratcliffe was saying on i think it was on fox that adam schiff has tried to impeach the

00:56:26.640 president he's now in his third try now some would say that would be the same as trying to overthrow the

00:56:32.640 elected government i think in this case it is i don't think all impeachments are that but in this case

00:56:39.680 case it's very clear that the trump impeachments are all meant as just overthrowing the government

00:56:46.880 and it's kind of amazing that he's not in jail

00:56:54.720 in it there's something go on going on that is the weirdest thing because

00:56:59.440 like i said the the people who pushed the coveted shots to the extent that they knew what they were

00:57:07.280 doing that should be jail but i don't think it ever will be and with schiff to the extent that he was

00:57:15.680 doing it just to remove the president and not because he thought the grounds of impeachment were

00:57:20.880 especially important like a phone call to ukraine who cared about that really nobody um it does look

00:57:28.800 like treason but it will never be treated that way and you could probably come up with 10 other

00:57:36.880 examples where you say to yourself that's not illegal you can't go to jail for that i don't know

00:57:43.920 i think sometimes we just get used to stuff so we just don't think of it as a crime when obviously it is

00:57:51.520 so anyway that's all i got for today i'm not operating at 100 today so i apologize if this

00:57:57.840 was not your usual incredibly entertaining live stream i i expect to be back to 100 really soon

00:58:07.920 and i'll tell you you never want to have a bad cough at the same time you have an untreated hernia

00:58:15.280 and asthma you don't want those three things at the same time that's that's the one thing i can tell you

00:58:20.320 that is a really tough 24 hours but i'm over the tough part i think we'll see all right i'm going

00:58:28.640 to say a few words privately to the locals people and the rest of you i will see you

00:58:36.880 tomorrow same time same place thanks for joining

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - February 18, 2025

Episode 2754 CWSA 02⧸18⧸25

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