Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2797 CWSA 04⧸02⧸25

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of human civilization.

00:00:11.760 It's called Coffee with Scott Adams.

00:00:15.300 You've probably never had a better time, but if you'd like to take this experience up to

00:00:19.840 levels that nobody can even understand with their tiny, shiny human brains, all you need

00:00:25.700 for that is a cup or a mug or a glass of tank or chalice and a canteen jug or flask, a vessel

00:00:31.060 of any kind.

00:00:32.380 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:00:33.760 I like coffee.

00:00:35.060 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine at the end of the day, the

00:00:38.500 thing that makes everything better.

00:00:39.880 It's called the simultaneous sip, and it happens right now.

00:00:44.260 Go.

00:00:49.860 Oh.

00:00:53.500 So good.

00:00:55.700 Well, you've probably heard by now, actor Val Kilmer has tragically died at age 65 from

00:01:04.160 pneumonia in Los Angeles.

00:01:06.060 I don't have anything to say about that, but when people who are younger than me die, it

00:01:11.240 bothers me a little extra, I have to say.

00:01:15.240 So rest in peace, Val Kilmer.

00:01:20.700 All right.

00:01:21.600 Shall we do some fake news?

00:01:23.620 Let's look at some fake news.

00:01:27.580 According to Futurism, Maggie Harrison Dupre's writing, that after a single concussion, kids

00:01:34.980 are 15% less likely to go to college.

00:01:39.580 Does that sound like real science to you?

00:01:42.060 After one concussion, kids are 15% less likely to go to college.

00:01:47.780 Do you know what else could be behind that number?

00:01:53.160 Could it be that smart kids get fewer head injuries?

00:01:56.740 I'm just asking.

00:02:00.320 If I showed you a bunch of mathletes, and they were standing next to a bunch of athletes,

00:02:09.480 the athletes probably are going to break their heads a little bit more often.

00:02:13.800 And the mathletes are probably going to be joining the band and maybe working on the, I don't know,

00:02:22.760 working on some clubs.

00:02:28.460 I hate to be all stereotypical, but I'm pretty sure that intelligence is highly correlated with

00:02:38.360 protecting your head.

00:02:40.280 What do you think?

00:02:44.820 Do you think that people of all intelligence levels are equally likely to wear a helmet?

00:02:53.520 To ride a bicycle?

00:02:55.520 It's not been my experience. 1.00

00:02:57.200 My experience is the dumber you are, the less likely you'll wear a helmet when you're riding 1.00

00:03:03.460 your bicycle. 1.00

00:03:06.160 Anyway, I thought that was funny.

00:03:09.740 Well, the Wisconsin Supreme Court elections didn't go the way a lot of Republicans wanted

00:03:14.480 it to go.

00:03:15.080 So the Democrat Crawford won, which means that there will be likely some reapportionment,

00:03:23.080 which means Wisconsin will subtract some Republicans and add some Democrats to the House, which means

00:03:33.640 the Republicans could lose the majority in the House.

00:03:39.780 Now, I don't know how close it is to guaranteeing that that will happen.

00:03:45.040 How close are we to guaranteeing that we lose the majority or Republicans lose?

00:03:50.020 Is it just very likely or is it guaranteed now?

00:03:57.280 Because anything could happen.

00:03:59.060 But let's talk about why that happened.

00:04:02.160 Why the heck did that happen?

00:04:06.840 According to The Hill, they say that Elon Musk might be toxic to elections.

00:04:13.120 Charlie Kirk says that the low-propensity voters, a lot of low-propensity voters voted for Trump.

00:04:23.340 But if Trump's not on the ticket, are they really going to show up for a local election?

00:04:29.540 That might be part of it.

00:04:31.320 I think a lot of it is that the Democrats had nothing else going for them.

00:04:35.180 So they had this one thing, that if they could find this clever way to sort of beat the system,

00:04:42.940 that they wouldn't have to act like they live in a democratic society.

00:04:47.940 They'd rather live in a lawfare-driven kleptocracy or something.

00:04:54.240 So they found this little weaselly way to win if they could put all their energy into it.

00:04:59.240 But they didn't have anything else to put energy into.

00:05:02.780 They had no policies, no ideas.

00:05:06.780 But they sure liked this idea of reapportioning so they have power.

00:05:11.540 So some of it has to do with the fact that nothing else was happening.

00:05:16.660 And so they could put all of their hopes and dreams and energy into this one little weaselly thing. 1.00

00:05:24.320 And I'll tell you, Democrats love weaselly shit. 1.00

00:05:27.080 But it's like, lawfare? 1.00

00:05:29.840 Sign me up.

00:05:31.880 Re-apportion to win?

00:05:34.480 Absolutely.

00:05:36.240 So it's all trickery.

00:05:38.320 Trickery and schemes.

00:05:41.920 But do you think Elon Musk is toxic to elections and that that might lead to the midterms?

00:05:49.820 Do you think the midterms will go poorly because of Elon?

00:05:52.540 Well, that might...

00:05:56.300 The interesting part is that he'll be done with his role.

00:06:01.220 It's supposed to only last 130 days.

00:06:03.740 So he'll be done, I don't know, for the summer or something.

00:06:06.980 And he thinks he can get his trillion dollars of savings before he's done.

00:06:11.560 Now, if he does that, if he succeeds and, you know, the major news sources agree that, okay, he did find a trillion dollars, didn't think he could do it, will that still make him toxic?

00:06:26.320 Well, maybe.

00:06:31.400 But it seems like after he's no longer working on the government, isn't it going to be harder to say it's his fault?

00:06:38.360 Because the actual cuts are going to be made by, you know, cabinet heads and group leaders who are in the government.

00:06:46.080 So are you really going to blame Doge or Musk if they get a trillion dollars and every one of the cuts, every one of them at this point, would be approved by people who, you know, are at least...

00:07:01.440 Most of them, I think, had to be at least approved by Congress before they can get in their job.

00:07:06.380 I don't know, it could feel completely different in six months, just the fact that you don't see his face associated with it all the time.

00:07:18.060 And the main thing is, when it comes to Democrats, I saw a Dr. Insensitive Jerk on X saying that you won't understand Democrats until you understand that they're thieves. 0.97

00:07:36.380 And they like letting people out of prison and they like, you know, prisoners having freedom because they relate to the thieves.

00:07:45.380 That's pretty harsh.

00:07:48.920 But it does seem a little bit like when you show them a...

00:07:52.820 Let's put it this way.

00:07:53.980 It seems to me that Democrats are about transferring wealth from people who made it.

00:07:59.660 And Republicans are about creating wealth.

00:08:02.320 So you got one party that creates wealth, and that's their main thing, and one party that wants to just take it away from them.

00:08:12.200 I don't know how that...

00:08:13.940 How could that even be a thing?

00:08:15.560 But it feels like that's what it is.

00:08:17.740 Well, today's Liberation Day, April 2nd, and President Trump will be announcing at 4 p.m., I think, in East Coast time.

00:08:27.860 From the Rose Garden, he'll tell you what exactly the tariffs are going to look like.

00:08:34.160 Will they be just straight reciprocal?

00:08:36.720 Will they be done with a scalpel or a jackhammer?

00:08:45.320 It doesn't matter what he does.

00:08:47.560 The press is going to say they hate it because, you know, what else they have to do except say they hate everything he does.

00:08:53.720 So, we'll see how that goes.

00:08:57.460 That's what's roiling the stock market today.

00:09:01.700 The stock market's going to react to the uncertainty.

00:09:07.120 Now, Israel, quite cleverly, got out in front of it and dropped all their duties and tariffs on American goods,

00:09:17.620 to which a lot of us said, wait a minute, they had tariffs on American goods?

00:09:26.780 I thought they were our friends.

00:09:29.220 And they had tariffs on American goods?

00:09:31.940 They weren't very high, and it wasn't much of it.

00:09:35.160 So, they didn't give up much by giving up their tariffs.

00:09:37.660 But it's so smart to do it before the tariffs kick in.

00:09:43.780 Like, given that there wasn't much money involved and Israel's very free market oriented,

00:09:50.180 it was just a clever move to get out of it and, you know, be one of the first, let's call it a victory for Trump.

00:09:59.020 Because, sure enough, he threatens, and Israel just says, okay, we'll drop ours.

00:10:07.840 So, that's how the negotiation is supposed to work.

00:10:11.080 India did the same, somebody says.

00:10:12.940 I haven't seen that in the news.

00:10:14.480 Did India drop all of its tariffs?

00:10:16.780 I think they only reduced them.

00:10:20.120 So, I'll have to check on that.

00:10:21.620 But give me a fact check on that.

00:10:24.880 Did India drop their tariffs in anticipation of the U.S. tariffs?

00:10:30.620 Or did they only adjust them downward?

00:10:33.780 I think they only adjusted them downward.

00:10:36.240 Which would be not nothing.

00:10:39.720 So, we'll see how that goes.

00:10:42.320 You know, the funny part is, people are still treating it like it's intended to be permanent.

00:10:47.800 And it doesn't matter how many times it's explained.

00:10:52.020 No, the point of this is to not have tariffs.

00:10:56.340 The end goal is that we don't have tariffs, they don't have tariffs.

00:11:01.360 So, we'll see.

00:11:02.620 Claudia was leaving for her pickleball tournament.

00:11:04.780 I've been visualizing my match all week.

00:11:07.300 She was so focused on visualizing that she didn't see the column behind her car on her backhand side.

00:11:13.320 Good thing Claudia's with Intact.

00:11:15.060 The insurer with the largest network of auto service centers in the country.

00:11:19.020 Everything was taken care of under one roof, and she was on her way in a rental car in no time.

00:11:23.480 I made it to my tournament and lost in the first round.

00:11:26.960 But you got there on time.

00:11:28.780 Intact Insurance.

00:11:29.960 Your auto service ace.

00:11:31.420 Certain conditions apply.

00:11:32.340 Unusual whales on X, that's an account on X, said that tariffs would add as much as $10,000 to the cost of the average new home.

00:11:47.120 What do you think of that as a data point?

00:11:50.020 That the costs of tariffs, the extra cost, would add $10,000 to the price of building the average new home.

00:11:58.580 Now, that's per CNBC.

00:11:59.960 Here's what I say.

00:12:03.480 What's the first thing I teach you when they show you a number without a percentage?

00:12:08.700 Or a percentage without a number?

00:12:11.740 What does it mean when the news gives you a number without the percentage?

00:12:17.580 Or the percentage without the number?

00:12:19.300 Because you don't know how much the average house costs to build, do you?

00:12:24.320 You don't know if that's 20%, 2%, 1%, do you?

00:12:29.600 So, this is propaganda or just really lazy, lazy work.

00:12:36.860 Because I had to go to AI and say, what's the cost of the average house?

00:12:41.500 And somewhere in the $300,000 range would be the average cost of a new house.

00:12:46.980 So, $10,000 added to that would be about 3% extra.

00:12:52.400 Now, would it be fair to say that, now that we know the number and the percentage, would it be fair to say that the tariffs will add 3%?

00:13:03.340 No, no, no, because the point of the tariffs is not to leave them in place.

00:13:12.960 The point of the tariffs is to negotiate.

00:13:16.640 So, what we don't know is where it all shakes out.

00:13:21.760 But what we do know for sure is that nobody, including the administration, plans for them to be permanent.

00:13:29.300 And just add costs to the U.S. consumer.

00:13:33.740 So, everything about that estimate is misleading.

00:13:37.680 First of all, that it would last.

00:13:40.640 Or even ever, it's possible, it will never even touch us.

00:13:44.340 Because maybe things will happen so quickly.

00:13:46.620 It's possible.

00:13:47.920 And the other thing is it's 3%.

00:13:49.840 $10,000 sounds like a lot.

00:13:52.580 3%, I don't know that you would notice it.

00:13:56.280 Would you?

00:13:56.680 On a house.

00:14:00.820 I mean, nobody wants to spend 3% more.

00:14:03.920 But would you even know the difference?

00:14:06.840 If I told you that the cost of a new house was $300,000, blah, blah, blah.

00:14:14.720 Versus the first time I ever talked to you about it, I told you it was 3% higher.

00:14:20.100 It wouldn't make any difference to your decision, would it?

00:14:24.460 3%?

00:14:26.140 Almost certainly no.

00:14:28.840 All right.

00:14:29.980 According to Mario Knopfel, and he's quoting somebody named Alec Stapp.

00:14:39.580 So, I guess Mario thinks this is a real number.

00:14:45.380 Maybe it is.

00:14:47.040 But the stat is that the U.S. is now producing 50% more oil than Saudi Arabia.

00:14:54.860 Does that sound right to you?

00:14:56.400 Does it sound right that the U.S. makes 50% or is producing 50% more oil than Saudi Arabia?

00:15:08.060 I think I'm going to need a fact check on that one, too.

00:15:11.140 If it's true, it's amazing.

00:15:12.540 So, I guess Saudi's share of the world oil has declined steadily.

00:15:22.160 And anyway, so that would, the U.S. is leading the world, accounting for 16% of the total global

00:15:31.380 output, whereas Saudi is 11% and Russia is 12%.

00:15:36.220 Now, if this is true, and it's newish, I also don't know how newish it is, but if we suddenly

00:15:45.120 have created a surge in oil production, wouldn't that tell you that that would make a bigger

00:15:53.460 difference to lowering prices than the tariffs might have to increasing prices?

00:15:58.580 If it's true, let's see, I've got, yeah.

00:16:08.340 All right.

00:16:09.220 So, I'm not even sure I believe that.

00:16:11.840 It sounds like almost too good to be true.

00:16:14.780 Well, as you know, Senator Cory Booker, he broke the record for talking nonstop in Congress

00:16:26.320 or at the Senate.

00:16:28.580 But they're calling it a talk-a-thon, not a filibuster, because it's not a filibuster because

00:16:35.100 he wasn't trying to stop any particular legislation.

00:16:39.740 So, why was he doing it?

00:16:44.100 I don't know.

00:16:45.780 I've been watching this news for like two days, and it's a headline story.

00:16:51.620 I don't even think the news told us why he did it.

00:16:55.760 I feel like he just needed some attention, and so he just put on a play.

00:17:04.840 What are we going to do?

00:17:06.240 I don't know.

00:17:07.540 How about I put on a play, and I'll pretend to be the very tired senator who cares a lot

00:17:14.600 and talks for 25 hours and breaks the record.

00:17:19.060 And I'm thinking, it's pure theater.

00:17:23.100 There's not even a specific thing he wanted.

00:17:27.620 Somebody said it had something to do with immigration.

00:17:32.180 But what exactly is he disagreeing about immigration? 0.77

00:17:36.200 So, the ridiculousness of it, the complete weakness of it, can only be beaten by the fact that

00:17:47.960 apparently his really good friend, who works for him sometimes, was led into the building

00:17:54.560 around the security check, and then later he told people he had a gun.

00:17:59.820 And he was immediately arrested because no guns are allowed in the Senate.

00:18:07.260 But it's a little unclear whether Senator Booker is the one who escorted him in, because it

00:18:15.660 seems like Booker was probably just at the podium most of the time, or somebody else did.

00:18:22.160 But I think it was reported as a member of Congress led him in, and led him around the screening.

00:18:30.700 Why does anybody get to go around the screening?

00:18:34.680 If you're the security person, and a member of Congress says, oh, this is somebody I know really well,

00:18:41.500 we're going to let him go around the screening, I would say to you, isn't that the most dangerous

00:18:48.200 person who came to the building, the one who has a, you know, somebody who is going to take him

00:18:54.220 around the screening? Why would you ever let anybody do that?

00:19:00.260 So, first of all, I'd probably fire the security people for allowing a member of Congress to take

00:19:06.020 anybody around the screening, especially when you find out later they have a gun.

00:19:10.300 Now, apparently there was nothing dangerous about it, but, I mean, he wasn't threatening

00:19:17.440 anybody or anything like that. But that's just crazy. Now, do you think that's bigger, or is

00:19:27.160 that a worse problem than Mike Waltz? Fat fingering, probably. We don't know the exact story. But

00:19:33.780 however, he invited Jeffrey Goldberg accidentally, and then he saw some plans for the attack, which

00:19:41.960 they don't call plans for the attack. I don't know. I think these are both nothings. You know,

00:19:47.220 they both led to nothing. Nobody got hurt. You know, could have been a problem, but wasn't.

00:19:54.920 So, I'm going to treat this, you know, the friend who brought a gun in, I'm going to treat this the

00:20:01.460 same as the Mike Waltz thing. I don't really think, you know, even if Booker is the one who

00:20:07.220 took him around the security, we don't know that. But even if he is, I don't think Booker should be,

00:20:14.380 you know, resigning. I don't think Mike Waltz should be resigning. These are just tiny little,

00:20:20.380 you know, human problems. They were dumb. You know, I'm not defending any of it, 1.00

00:20:27.840 but not the biggest problem in the world. Well, meanwhile, CNN and Harry Yen has some new numbers

00:20:37.080 that are bad for Democrats. So, according to a new poll, Quinnipiac, Democrats' opinion of their own,

00:20:48.120 well, actually the entire voters' opinion of Democrats in Congress is a 21% approval.

00:20:55.100 Now, this is Democrats in Congress, so it's not about the party of Democrats, just the ones

00:21:02.460 that are elected in Congress. And only 40% of Democrats approve of their own bunch of Congress

00:21:13.620 people. It's the lowest approval on record for Quinnipiac. So, even though the Democrats had a

00:21:25.100 so they could do their little reapportionment scheme, they're not doing so well. By the way,

00:21:31.240 there were also, there were some elections in Florida, some special elections, and the Republicans

00:21:38.760 both won, but not by as much as people thought they would. So, it kind of, everything is sort of

00:21:47.400 suggesting, all the special elections, are sort of suggesting that the Republicans have some weakness

00:21:53.020 whenever Trump is not on the ticket. So, that could be a bad signal coming up.

00:22:01.300 When I found out my friend got a great deal on a wool coat from Winners, I started wondering,

00:22:07.000 is every fabulous item I see from Winners? Like that woman over there with the designer jeans. 1.00

00:22:12.760 Are those from Winners? Ooh, or those beautiful gold earrings? Did she pay full price? Or that leather

00:22:18.580 tote? Or that cashmere sweater? Or those knee-high boots? That dress? That jacket? Those shoes?

00:22:24.260 Is anyone paying full price for anything?

00:22:27.220 Stop wondering. Start winning. Winners. Find fabulous for less.

00:22:31.920 All right. So, yesterday, I didn't know during the show that Bill Maher had already had dinner

00:22:37.200 with Trump at the White House. And there's a little bit of feedback. I think Bill Maher's going to talk

00:22:47.900 about it on Friday on the show. That will be interesting. But the dinner was Bill Maher, Trump,

00:22:54.440 Kid Rock, who set it up, and Dana White, who was just there because he's a good dinner date,

00:22:59.740 I guess. And I was thinking to myself, how could that not be fun? I mean, just think about it.

00:23:07.280 Bill Maher, Trump, Kid Rock, Dana White. There was no chance that that could be anything but a good

00:23:13.560 time. But here are the little bit of stories we've heard from it. We'll hear more. I think I heard

00:23:23.860 this on Gottfeld. That Bill Maher brought with him a list of insults Trump had said about Bill Maher

00:23:33.400 over the years and handed it to him. So, what do you think Trump did with it? The list of insults

00:23:41.740 that Trump had used against Bill Maher. What's the funniest thing that Trump could do? He autographed

00:23:50.200 it and gave it back. He signed it. Now, how much do you love that? And how disarming is that?

00:24:04.520 So, you're Bill Maher and you're coming in with, okay, these are all the things you said about me,

00:24:09.360 which, you know, in itself was kind of a humorous thing to do. But I think Trump topped him by signing

00:24:15.900 it. Especially if he hadn't been asked to sign it. It's funnier if Bill Maher didn't ask him to sign

00:24:23.940 it and he just said, give me a pen. Oh, that was funny. But apparently a good time was had by all

00:24:34.460 they got along. And there was a little guided tour of the White House and even the private residence.

00:24:43.580 That's the good stuff. People don't get to usually see that. And then we learned that Bill Maher,

00:24:49.020 the Democrat that he's been forever, has never been to the White House. Even I've been to the

00:24:55.400 White House. There's so many like podcasters and Republicans of all kinds who have been invited to

00:25:03.180 the White House. Generally, you know, because the president wants to, you know, make sure you're on

00:25:08.280 board and just work the crowd a little bit. But Bill Maher had never been invited. But here's the

00:25:15.620 kill shot. Now, we might hear more about this, but this is what we know so far, that apparently during

00:25:23.340 dinner, Trump asked Bill Maher about Maher's opinion about Iran and Israel and the Middle East.

00:25:31.560 Now, what I was looking for was the kill shot. The kill shot is where Trump, who has crazy charisma, 0.99

00:25:43.180 he can turn anybody in person. Like you cannot dislike him in person. It would just be so hard. 0.96

00:25:49.960 Because in person, I mean, he just glows. I had the experience. You just want to be talking to him.

00:25:57.780 And he never runs out of things to say. He always gives you full attention and treats you like you're

00:26:04.620 the only person in the room. But here's the kill shot. Imagine being Bill Maher, and you think of 0.69

00:26:11.940 yourself as basically a well-informed political comedian. And then the most powerful and important

00:26:20.560 person, maybe in the world, the president of the United States looks at you and says, what do you think

00:26:29.220 I should do about the Middle East? And you might actually have some ideas, because you've been thinking

00:26:36.460 about it, and you're well-informed. I can tell you what happened next, because I experienced it.

00:26:43.600 Whatever Maher said, unless he just said a joke, which I doubt, so maybe we'll find out about that later,

00:26:51.560 if he gave him any actual advice, or treated it as seriously, like, you know, I think the only thing

00:26:58.600 you can do is this or that, I guarantee you that Trump gave him his full attention, listened to him

00:27:06.400 completely without interrupting, and then, you know, maybe commented on his comments or something. Do you know

00:27:13.720 what that does to a person? I had that experience, where I've told you this story before. It's not really

00:27:21.820 private. When Trump asked me who I thought would be his running opponent, the next time he ran, because I saw

00:27:31.100 him in 2018. And I said, I thought it would be Kamala Harris. And then, you know, he said he thought it

00:27:38.020 would be Biden. So he was right. But when the president of the United States asks for your opinion,

00:27:47.220 and then he listens for the answer, like he really actually, no joke, in the real world,

00:27:54.300 wanted to hear your opinion. The power of that is incalculable. So I expect Bill Maher will try to

00:28:04.900 act like nothing happened. You know, like there were two adversaries who had a good dinner, and it was

00:28:12.160 fun, but it doesn't change anything about how he feels, or how he's going to act, or how hard he's

00:28:17.320 going to be on Trump. I imagine that that's the look we're going to get. But I'll tell you,

00:28:23.480 that experience will change you. And that's one of the superpowers that Trump has. He can ask for

00:28:30.760 your opinion, treat you like you're the only one in the room and your opinion matters, and you'll

00:28:37.340 never be the same. You'll never be the same. It will just change you forever. It's like an incredible

00:28:46.620 thing. Anyway, do you remember a while back, it was in 2020, there was a study that went all over

00:28:55.840 the internet that said that black infants have a lower survival rate if they're cared for by white

00:29:03.900 doctors? How many of you remember that? I remember it. So that would be pretty horrible, right? It's so

00:29:12.500 racist if black infants didn't do as well if they had white doctors. So guess what happened? 0.98

00:29:23.400 Turns out somebody looked at the data and found out the data was maybe not so reliable, and here's why.

00:29:31.900 There was a little bit of a selection bias. It's so bad. Science is so terrible. Here's what the

00:29:43.040 selection bias was. There are more white doctors in the specialties where you go to those specialties

00:29:53.100 because somebody might die. So the white doctors were in the sort of dangerous jobs, more of them. 0.98

00:30:01.440 There were more of them. So that it looked like when you went to a white doctor, you'd have bad 0.97

00:30:06.240 outcomes. But you would only go to those specialists who just happened to be more staffed by white

00:30:13.060 doctors if you were already in dire trouble, right? So it might be the oncologist or heart surgeon or

00:30:22.560 something like that. So all it was was they didn't select an equal set of black doctors and an equal

00:30:31.440 set of white doctors. The white doctors were more often in specialties that involved more dangerous 0.68

00:30:39.180 kinds of situations. And that's all it was. And once you corrected for that, the difference kind of went

00:30:46.020 away. Now, you know, even if you didn't know that, what was the credibility you should have given the

00:30:58.200 study from day one as soon as you heard it? The answer is none. From the first time you heard it

00:31:06.200 without even knowing what the problem was, you should have said, oh, it's one of those. Here's why.

00:31:11.700 Half of all these studies, half, are not reproducible, meaning that it's a coin flip,

00:31:21.440 whether it's real or not. Even if it's peer-reviewed, there's a 50% chance it's not reproducible,

00:31:28.880 meaning it was never valid in the first place. Now, if the question is sort of a yes-no,

00:31:34.120 which this is, do the black babies do as well if the doctor is a different race? Yes or no, 0.97

00:31:43.860 right? It's like a coin flip. It's yes or no. Under those conditions, when the studies themselves

00:31:51.080 are only 50% reliable, what is the difference between doing a study

00:31:56.720 and not knowing if it's reproducible and flipping a coin? Because it's just going to be yes or no,

00:32:04.900 heads or tails. And the answer is there's no difference. There's no difference between that

00:32:11.460 study, even if you didn't know that it was flawed. At the very, at the start of it, you should have said,

00:32:17.540 well, that means nothing. Now, it could become, it could become meaningful. Let's say if the study

00:32:24.960 were reproducible, that would mean something. Suppose other people did studies in the same

00:32:31.180 domain and got similar answers. Well, now you have my attention. You know, as long as it's not all

00:32:38.080 being funded by one kind of entity that has a, has a horse in the race. But no, when you first hear a

00:32:44.780 study like this, it's just a coin flip. It means nothing. Here's another one. Lab grown meat. I saw this

00:32:52.820 in the internet today. Lab grown meat, potentially worse for the environment than retail beef.

00:32:59.520 So this is told to us by an account called No Farms, No Food. So it's an entity that is sort of pro-farm,

00:33:10.820 which means probably not pro-lab grown meat. And they say an interdepartmental study from the

00:33:20.420 University of California, University of California, concluded that lab grown meat may be up to 25 times

00:33:29.500 worse for the environment than natural pasture-raised cattle retail beef. Now, here's the first tell

00:33:38.520 that something's amiss. The, the poster that's pro-farm did a screenshot instead of a link.

00:33:49.120 So if I wanted to click and see the details of the study, couldn't do it. So that's your first,

00:33:57.040 you know, that's a, that's a little signal there. Secondly, we don't know who funded the study.

00:34:06.300 Was it big meat? I mean, who else would fund it? Is there anybody, was there anybody else even going

00:34:14.780 to look into it? I don't know. So if you don't know who funded it, you should ignore it.

00:34:23.000 And then again, you have to put it into the context of the studies being 50% false anyway.

00:34:29.140 So I don't know. I don't know if any of that's true, but it's a low reliability. Speaking of low

00:34:36.260 reliability, Catherine Herridge and a number of other people reporting about the, I guess we have

00:34:44.680 some new information about the internal deliberations at the FBI during the time that the Hunter laptop

00:34:51.820 story was breaking. And the news is that the FBI knew that it was real, but they just shut up and told

00:35:02.180 everybody to shut up about it. Now, did you have the same experience with this story that I did,

00:35:08.860 if you already heard it? That didn't you think, didn't we already know that everybody in the

00:35:16.160 government was lying about the laptop and that they knew it was real? I had trouble figuring out

00:35:22.920 what was the new part. Maybe I just assumed it. Didn't you? Is there even one person listening

00:35:31.180 who thought the FBI thought that that was fake or the Department of Justice or those 51 Intel people

00:35:40.280 who said it looked like Russian craft or something like that? I didn't think that there was anybody

00:35:49.000 who thought that was real. I didn't think there was anybody who thought it was anything but real.

00:35:54.220 I thought we knew everybody in the government was lying in every capacity, in every place,

00:35:59.560 including the FBI. But I guess Catherine Herridge is going to do an expose with, or a deep dive 1.00

00:36:07.440 with Michael Schellenberger. I don't think they've worked together before, so this could be interesting.

00:36:14.900 And so they got newly released FBI chat messages and basically people were told to stand down and shut

00:36:23.020 up about it. But again, why does it feel like I saw the future or something, right? Because I kept reading

00:36:35.060 and thinking, didn't everybody know this? Didn't everybody know the FBI was lying if they were involved

00:36:41.700 at all? Well, the New York Times has inexplicably written a very long story about the U.S. involvement in Ukraine.

00:37:05.180 I guess this was yesterday or the day before. And it kind of reveals what all of us already knew

00:37:13.300 again. So this is like the same thing I said about the last story. Didn't you already know

00:37:19.880 that the U.S. was deeply involved in creating the situation that caused war in Ukraine?

00:37:26.900 But now the New York Times is revealing to us through their investigation that, yes, the U.S.

00:37:35.780 was very involved. But what they were keying on here is that the targeting information was coming

00:37:42.900 from U.S. people at a German military base. And even General Milley was directly involved in planning

00:37:52.080 for the Ukraine military. And there were even troops on the ground, U.S. troops on the ground

00:37:58.600 in Ukraine, presumably advising, but I would think helping with targeting. And I would think helping

00:38:07.720 tell people which button to push on the weapons, if they're American weapons. And so again, I asked the

00:38:16.300 question, didn't we all know that? Is there anybody who was watching this who didn't know

00:38:23.020 that there must have been U.S. military people sort of embedded with the Ukrainians from day one?

00:38:31.620 I just thought everybody knew that. So now it's a big story in the New York Times and people are like,

00:38:37.140 what? But seriously, in the comments, didn't you all know that we had boots on the ground from day

00:38:45.060 one? Because that's the way everything works. You don't have to know about Ukraine. You just have to

00:38:52.060 know anything about the United States. And anything about the United States would tell you,

00:38:58.840 of course, we had people pretending not to be our military who are our military. Might have been CIA,

00:39:05.460 might have been just special forces or something. But they just take off their outfits, dress like

00:39:11.960 Ukrainians, which I guess dress like Americans. And they're just training them. Maybe they're just 1.00

00:39:20.220 training them. This is the least surprising story of all. But there's some speculation. I saw Jack

00:39:29.140 Posobiec talking about it. And that the New York Times might be trying to maybe cover their own asses or 0.96

00:39:38.340 get ahead of the fact that there will be more coming out. So it doesn't look like they didn't do their 0.56

00:39:45.340 job. So I don't know. So apparently the U.S. has been directly involved in a war with Russia

00:39:53.880 the entire time, which again, I thought everybody knew it. None of you are surprised, right?

00:40:03.440 It's just how we operate. Anyway. So now that there are multiple offers for TikTok,

00:40:11.880 Wall Street Journal is reporting that Trump is going to be briefed on all the offers and

00:40:17.320 make some kind of a decision. But here's my question. Isn't it up to China? If China says you

00:40:25.800 can't sell it or TikTok says it, but really we would imagine that China was banned it. And I don't

00:40:33.640 think China is going to sell it. So if I had to predict, I think that China would eat the billions of

00:40:42.820 dollars of revenue that they could have made, 50 billion or whatever it is, because a lot of that

00:40:49.160 would go to the investors. It wouldn't go to China. If you were China and you knew you were going to 0.70

00:40:54.960 lose control of TikTok in America anyway, just America, would you sell it? If you thought you had

00:41:03.520 a little money involved, you know, maybe a billion here or there? Or would you just say, no, we'll just

00:41:11.620 go on a business in America and just sell it everywhere else? I think China is not going to 0.73

00:41:17.960 approve the sale. So I think Trump is going to have to kill TikTok, which China would be challenging

00:41:25.900 him to do, because you know how unpopular that would be? That would be super unpopular because

00:41:35.940 even Trump has said he's TikTok. So I think that China is going to want to corner Trump

00:41:41.900 and put him, especially during the tariff situation, they're going to want to corner and embarrass Trump

00:41:48.820 by saying, hard no, we're not selling it. So if you want to put it down to business,

00:41:54.280 that will be you, Trump, putting it down to business. So explain that to all the small

00:41:59.880 businesses who go out in business because they lose their TikTok access. It would be a nightmare.

00:42:08.900 So I feel like Trump may have accidentally walked into a trap that he set himself. How in the world

00:42:16.920 does he get out of this? So that's my prediction. China will be a hard no on the sale, and they'd rather 0.83

00:42:24.020 embarrass Trump into being the one who kills TikTok. I think that's where it's heading.

00:42:34.100 Apparently in New York State, there was some kind of a big strike by the corrections professionals.

00:42:44.900 And so there won't be enough or there are not enough people to operate the jails. So what they're

00:42:53.360 going to do is release a whole bunch of prisoners, not the most dangerous ones, but they're going to

00:42:59.980 release some massive amount of prisoners that should be in jail just by saying they don't have

00:43:06.820 jails. They don't have a staff to manage it. So I guess the corrections officers have been on

00:43:16.520 strike since February. They don't like the forced overtime and tough working conditions,

00:43:21.740 to which I say, why did you ask for a job in a prison?

00:43:29.360 Why? Why? Imagine asking for a job in a prison and then complaining about the difficult working

00:43:38.020 conditions. What did you think it would be? Like when you decided to work in a prison,

00:43:44.580 did you think you'd have a nice cubicle and a window view? It seems to me that job would be the hardest

00:43:55.440 job of all jobs, you know, and also the most dangerous. So I certainly understand why they'd go

00:44:04.300 on strike. I just don't understand why they'd take the job in the first place.

00:44:07.820 Well, meanwhile, Project Veritas has a new undercover video involving the NASA and the State Department

00:44:19.280 in which the employees are saying that they're not getting rid of DEI, they're just rebranding it,

00:44:25.580 and they're going to defy Trump's orders on DEI being illegal. So they said they canceled their DEI

00:44:34.680 stuff, but people just did it and called it something else. They work around the rules.

00:44:41.920 What do you think is going to happen? Do you think that the Department of Justice,

00:44:47.860 I guess it would be them, Pam Bondi, would come after them when the undercover investigation shows 0.97

00:44:56.980 that they were just lying and they were just continuing to racially discriminate? At what point

00:45:04.620 do you go to jail for it? Because it's illegal. If you're doing a scheme so that you can continue

00:45:13.740 illegally discriminating against white people, is there no jail for that? You know, at what point 0.84

00:45:22.900 is it jailable? Maybe is it a civil, you know, you get sued for it, you lose your funding? What

00:45:30.840 exactly is a penalty for that? Because if there's no penalty, nothing's going to happen. But apparently

00:45:37.360 racism is very important to NASA and the State Department, at least parts of it.

00:45:43.080 Well, according to The Hill, Tim Walsh's daughter has decided not to go to grad school. 1.00

00:45:53.780 It turns out the daughter might be as dumb as Tim Walsh. So listen to her reason for not going to 0.99

00:45:59.440 grad school. And she announced this on TikTok, that she's not going to go to grad school because she

00:46:06.480 says there's a lack of support, at least in the school that she wanted to go to, for the right

00:46:13.260 to protest at higher education institutions. She said, I applied for one school. I kind of had my

00:46:20.700 heart set on it. I'm not going to name the institution. But given the recent events, I'm not going to give

00:46:26.340 my money, go into debt for or support institutions that do not support students and the right to protest

00:46:33.140 protest and speak out for their communities. So that's why she's not going to graduate school?

00:46:44.660 So she's destroyed her own career because she thinks she doesn't have free speech on a college campus? 1.00

00:46:54.060 I'm not entirely sure this was about free speech, was it? I thought it was about

00:47:00.480 gross antisemitism. Was anybody complaining about free speech? Because I don't know that free speech

00:47:10.640 protects you from a level of antisemitism that pretty much guarantees there's going to be

00:47:17.300 violence attached. I don't know. Tim Walsh's daughter, I don't think you made a good decision.

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00:48:26.020 for details. Please play responsibly. Well, let's check in with the Department of Imaginary

00:48:32.220 Concerns. As you know, Democrats have a lot of drama and a lot of imaginary concerns. So we're

00:48:40.020 going to check in on those. Imaginary concern number one, Elon Musk is not elected.

00:48:46.400 That is an imaginary concern. Now, it's true. He's not elected. You know what else is true?

00:48:55.200 There are only two people in the executive branch who are elected. Just two. But I haven't given you

00:49:01.600 the percentage yet. Remember, number within a percentage is misleading. But there are about

00:49:08.360 2.4 million federal government workers. I think those are just within the president's domain.

00:49:18.320 So of the millions, let's just say a few million, of the millions of workers, only two of them are

00:49:26.780 elected. The rest are appointed or in some cases, Congress had to agree. But the vast majority of

00:49:35.520 people who work for the executive base, the vast majority, like 99.99999% are all unelected.

00:49:47.480 So the unelected claim is both true, but it belongs in the domain of the imaginary concerns.

00:49:55.980 We'll put that with things that could have happened, but didn't. Anyway, here's another one.

00:50:06.220 There's a Yale professor who said, I think this was on MSNBC, they were interviewing a Yale professor

00:50:16.860 who's going to leave the United States for Canada because he fears that Trump is implementing fascism

00:50:23.460 and he wants to highlight it and make a point. So he's a professor of fascism. So he's a scholarly

00:50:32.240 expert on fascism. Now, what happens if you're a scholarly expert on fascism? Do you notice a lot of it?

00:50:43.600 Yes, you do. What would happen if you were a scholarly expert on ghosts?

00:50:51.580 Would you see more ghosts than other people? Yes, you would. Suppose you were a scholarly expert

00:51:00.800 on narcissists. Do you think you'd see more of them than other people? Yes, you would. You'd see them

00:51:08.120 everywhere. So whatever you're the scholarly expert on, you're just going to sort of be primed to see

00:51:16.280 it everywhere. But what examples do you think are there? Because you've been hearing it too, right?

00:51:23.020 Trump's a fascist, Trump's a fascist. What exactly are the examples? So I went to Grok 1.00

00:51:30.640 to find out what Trump is doing specifically that his critics would call fascism.

00:51:39.280 And here's what Grok told me fits under that category of fascism. And what I want you to look

00:51:47.460 for is this the sort of thing that looks like confirmation bias, meaning if you were the Yale

00:51:55.220 fascism scholar expert, you could interpret all of this as fascism. But if you were not fucking crazy, 0.99

00:52:02.460 you could interpret it as just ordinary stuff, right? So the first indication that Trump is a fascist 1.00

00:52:10.460 is his America first policy. If you happen to be the Yale fascism scholar expert, well, that's a pretty

00:52:20.340 big signal that you're going to be a fascist. If you were a normal person who's not bad shit crazy, 0.99

00:52:26.540 you'd say, oh, you mean like every country does? Is there a country that doesn't put themselves 0.99

00:52:32.840 first? Well, maybe Great Britain, maybe France and a little bit of Germany at the point. But

00:52:42.760 don't you think that countries in general should manage their own situation first with an eye to

00:52:52.660 the fact that they have to work productively with other countries? So taking care of America first 0.91

00:52:59.560 and doing things like making sure that our tariff situation is at least reciprocal?

00:53:09.480 Is that what makes a fascist? Only if that's how you're primed. If you're not primed to see it,

00:53:17.820 it just looks like ordinary, the most obvious ordinary thing that the president

00:53:21.860 has the country in mind first. Here's another one. Trump pardoned the January Sixers, 0.94

00:53:29.320 which would suggest that he is in support of violent insurrectionists. Hmm. But that's just a media

00:53:40.060 narrative. It's not true. What's true is it was a protest. It's not true they were insurrectionists.

00:53:48.740 So if you believe they were insurrectionists and he pardoned them, well, I could see how you might

00:53:55.020 think, oh, that's a little too far. But if you happen to know that the media and the Democrats

00:54:00.820 cooked up this horrific scheme to hunt and jail Republicans, then you would say, oh, well, this is

00:54:09.680 just justice. What part of justice is fascism? And has not Trump also pardoned over time a lot of other

00:54:21.200 people who are not a bunch of white Republicans? He has. So looking at pardons, because pardons are

00:54:29.900 always sketchy. You know, every president does pardons, does at least a few that you say, what?

00:54:35.200 So pardons, I think that's a crazy standard. How about strict immigration policies? Again,

00:54:43.320 this is from Grok, trying to give you examples of how Trump is a fascist, or his critics would say 0.93

00:54:50.440 it. Grok is not saying it. Strict immigration policies? That's just common sense. That's literally

00:54:59.960 just protecting your country from what? Criminal Venezuelan gangs and degradation of the workforce 0.99

00:55:08.480 in the United States, or at least the pay for it. How in the world is that fascist to not let other 0.92

00:55:15.740 people come in and take your stuff? Then Grok says Trump has a rhetoric that talks about toughness,

00:55:28.320 like, you know, break those heads. And, you know, we might involve the military to do this.

00:55:34.200 But that's just talk. And it's just how it gets reframed. If you said to yourself, that's just how

00:55:41.600 he talks, it means nothing. If you say to yourself, well, that's the only, the only people who talk like

00:55:49.360 that are fascists because you're the Yale fascism scholar expert, well, then suddenly it looks like

00:55:56.080 something. But it's so thin. Then about Trump makes attacks on the media. So this is on Grok's list

00:56:07.580 of why Trump's critics call it fascist. Attacks on the media. Well, if you thought that the media was

00:56:15.900 fair and honest, then attacking it would look a little fascist. And do you think that the Yale

00:56:23.340 fascism scholar expert believes that CNN and MSNBC, he was actually appearing on MSNBC?

00:56:31.620 He was appearing on MSNBC and didn't notice that the entire media landscape is so biased that attacking

00:56:42.220 it is just common sense. Because they're, in many cases, just completely lying. And there are plenty

00:56:50.320 of examples where the media just ran schemes, that they ran plays against Trump. And they knew they

00:56:56.660 were doing it. We know they knew they were doing it. So attacking the media makes sense if the media

00:57:02.940 is worthy of attack. And boy, are they. And then Grok says that on Twitter, Trump allegedly praised Hitler.

00:57:16.340 Okay, I don't need to tell you that never happened. But there it is. That's what Grok says. No,

00:57:22.460 that never happened. And then they're saying that Trump made racist stereotypes of prosecutors.

00:57:32.320 Did he? I think the racist stereotype, if he did anything, was that there's a coincidence to the

00:57:41.240 type of people who are coming after him, which we all noticed, which is not a racist stereotype.

00:57:48.340 It's more complaining about people being racist against him. Now, and then the summary is that

00:57:58.600 Trump likes nationalism, suppression of dissent, and authoritarian government. Suppression of dissent?

00:58:07.300 What part was that? Attacking the media? The media are liars. It's suppression of misinformation, 0.74

00:58:15.080 maybe, by arguing back. And authoritarian government. What makes it authoritarian versus effective?

00:58:26.920 Where's the line between getting stuff done and being an authoritarian? Does the authoritarian

00:58:34.860 ask Kid Rock and Bill Maher to go to dinner?

00:58:38.440 It seems to me that this is one of those framing hypnosis cult situations, where if you've been trained

00:58:50.300 to see the world through the eyes of everything's fascism, or it's not, then you could sort of talk

00:58:57.240 yourself into it. But no, the evidence is purely open to interpretation.

00:59:07.700 And I don't see it. But once you're a ghost hunter, you're going to see a lot of ghosts.

00:59:15.300 According to the Daily Signal is writing, Tyler O'Neill, that Tesla owners not connected to Doge,

00:59:23.700 just people who own a Tesla, are acceptable victims, according to 31% of Democrats.

00:59:29.680 Democrats. So, roughly a third of Democrats in a poll said that attacking people who simply owned a Tesla,

00:59:41.600 which would include, you know, probably half of them are Democrats or leading Democrat,

00:59:49.280 that they would be acceptable targets. Now, remember I told you that Democrats are basically

00:59:56.320 the thieves, and they're looking to take things from people who have things. That includes Democrats

01:00:04.480 who have things. So, if anybody has nice things, you're going to find a lot of Democrats who are

01:00:10.380 willing to take it away. And I don't think it goes deeper than that. So, I think that probably 31%

01:00:17.420 of Democrats can't afford a Tesla. So, if you say to them, hey, how about these people who can afford

01:00:23.880 a Tesla, or even just afford a car, what do you think of them? And they're like, ah, I think they

01:00:31.600 should be victims just because I don't like Elon Musk. But really, is that the reason? Or is it just

01:00:39.040 because they can afford a nice car and you can't? So, that's crazy. I think in general that people

01:00:49.860 who don't have money are in favor of violence against people who do. Do you think that's a good

01:00:57.540 generalization? People who don't have money and don't expect that they're going to make any in any

01:01:04.100 legal way, are going to say they're going to be open to violence to take money from the people who 0.62

01:01:10.400 have it. Because everybody wants more money. And if you can't figure out a way to make it yourself,

01:01:16.280 maybe you'd rather take it from people. I had the experience of going from a low-income situation to a

01:01:25.520 high-income situation. And I can tell you that while I thought my character was improving and my morality,

01:01:32.860 as I got richer, all I eventually realized I was protecting my own class, like I got, I became

01:01:42.880 really anti-crime when I had money that people could steal from me. But when I had nothing and I

01:01:51.100 saw somebody maybe ripped off a rich person, it didn't bother me a bit. Is it because I used to have

01:01:57.900 low character and then I developed a conscience and higher character and morality and ethics?

01:02:04.460 No, probably just made more money. And then joining the people who said, you shouldn't attack

01:02:11.620 people who have more money because they earned it themselves. So the difference, I think, with

01:02:17.800 Republicans who don't have money and Democrats who don't have money is that Republicans who don't have

01:02:23.580 money are more likely to think, but I could have money if I worked harder and did all the obvious

01:02:29.480 things that people do to make money. So they're not thinking, I want to steal things and go to jail.

01:02:36.260 They're thinking, how do I work harder? Where's my mentor? Where do I get a foot in the door so I

01:02:43.040 can make something of myself? I think the Democrats are more likely to think that the system is rigged

01:02:49.320 and they need some reparations or they need some, basically, they need the government to take money

01:02:55.960 from the rich and give it to them. And whether you deserved it or worked for it, none of that matters.

01:03:04.180 They just don't have money. Other people do. So they're trying to figure out ways to get it.

01:03:11.260 And if you can make the government be your criminal enterprise, which is what Democrats have done,

01:03:18.780 you notice the Democrats have turned the entire government, you know, through USAID and all the

01:03:25.040 NGOs, they've turned the entire thing into a criminal organization to take money from the people who have 0.95

01:03:32.040 it and give it to themselves. In many cases, they're rich and they're still doing it. So there's that.

01:03:40.780 Anyway.

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01:03:59.000 Here's a story that sounds like you've heard it before, but it's actually just a third one like it.

01:04:04.020 There's yet another law firm that Trump went after because they had been involved in

01:04:09.640 investigating the January 6 attacks and some other stuff. And let's see, this one is called

01:04:19.100 Wilkie, Farr and Gallagher. So Trump was getting ready to go after them, but they cleverly got ahead of it.

01:04:27.220 And they said that they'll provide the equivalent of $100 million in pro bono legal services

01:04:34.120 for causes the administration supports. Now, this is the third major law firm

01:04:40.560 to offer a gigantic pro bono, you know, essentially bribe. Could you call it a bribe?

01:04:51.380 They don't call it a bribe. Let's not call it that. But here's my question. So pro bono means that

01:05:00.240 nobody would have to pay for it and they would do $100 million in legal services for

01:05:07.800 Trump-related or Republican-related areas. Now, here's my question. Do they put the top lawyers

01:05:18.540 on that kind of pro bono work? Are you going to get the A-plus players or are you going to get the

01:05:26.040 lawyers that maybe won't make it with the law firm and, you know, they're junior and, you know,

01:05:33.020 well, we can say we tried, but, you know, we put our lawyers on it and we did not prevail, but

01:05:40.800 I'm going to call that $10 million of legal service. And nobody's really going to check

01:05:46.380 that it was really $10 million in legal service. And they will burn through that $100 million

01:05:52.140 commitment in no time at all. And they will probably not win a single case.

01:05:59.720 They'll somehow, you know, like, you know, it seems to me that the odds of them giving the A-team

01:06:07.480 to the pro bono work for the other side is really low, really low. So I'm not so sure that this is a

01:06:16.780 real victory, but it's fun. All right, here's a question that I can't wrap my head around.

01:06:26.240 It doesn't seem like that long ago we were talking about China was in terrible trouble because their

01:06:31.960 demographics are bad. They don't have enough young people. They're full of bureaucracy and they can't

01:06:38.180 get anything done. And, you know, they might have a lot of debt and they build a bunch of cities that

01:06:43.140 they're just knocking down because it was a waste of money. And they're stretched kind of thin everywhere

01:06:48.920 and they're getting ready to collapse at any moment because the U.S. is moving its manufacturing

01:06:55.340 out of there, et cetera. On the other hand, it seems like the United States doesn't know how to

01:07:02.780 make anything. And China has entire industries of people that they've trained in the art of making

01:07:11.680 stuff. So if you wanted to build a manufacturing facility in the United States, you'd have to find

01:07:18.120 somebody who knows how to do that. And there aren't that many compared to China, where I think it's a 1.00

01:07:23.240 major. And you got all these, you know, armies of trained engineers and everything else who just

01:07:29.860 know how to build a manufacturing plant. So how do you compete with that? That we've got our kids who

01:07:36.140 can barely read. Every time there's a new report coming out, it's worse. So China is educating its

01:07:42.380 kids. We're not. It feels like we stopped being able to invent things. You know, only a few things have

01:07:51.340 come out recently. Mostly AI. But China's AI seems to be cheaper and open source. So if they keep their AI 0.73

01:08:01.800 almost as good and cheaper and open source, how do our big companies that we think are the jewels in our

01:08:10.740 crown, how do they even survive? How would chat GPT survive if it's competing against just as good

01:08:20.340 and almost free? I don't know how. And I don't think that China's going to, you know, suddenly start

01:08:29.240 charging for AI or at least charging more. Suppose there's a war.

01:08:35.840 The smart people, I think Naval said this recently, whoever has the most drones that are, you know,

01:08:45.240 at least good enough to be in military, whoever has the most drones is going to win every war

01:08:51.000 because they're going to be all drone wars. And whoever has the most is going to win. How in the

01:08:57.320 world are we going to have more drones than China? China will instantly go to complete military 0.96

01:09:04.380 dominance because it can manufacture. They can just make drones all day long and they would have 0.99

01:09:10.680 rare earth minerals and they would have everything they needed. They wouldn't need anything from

01:09:15.200 anybody. So that's crazy. So here's what I can't tell. Is China in trouble? Do they have debt

01:09:24.800 problems and, you know, population problems and bureaucracy and they can't get anything done?

01:09:30.140 Or have they become this competitive monster that will never be able to match militarily,

01:09:39.300 technologically, or manufacturing wise? And if we can't match them as a economy, then eventually they will

01:09:48.240 dominate us. And it seems like there's nothing we could do about it.

01:09:53.580 I saw a post by Hotep Jesus on X. And Hotep Jesus is funny because he says things that you're not

01:10:05.000 supposed to say in public. Very provocative things. And I don't have an exact quote, but I think he said

01:10:12.320 something like, if you're not expanding your empire, somebody is going to basically expand onto

01:10:19.460 you. So you don't have a choice of just staying the same. In this world, that's just not an option.

01:10:26.180 You can be growing and growing your empire or somebody else is going to grow their empire and

01:10:32.380 take yours. Those really are the only two choices. Because if you look at any civilization that was

01:10:41.280 thriving, they were usually conquering at the same time, you know, whether it was Rome when it was

01:10:47.320 growing. China right now is looking to, you know, conquer. It's already conquered what? Tibet. And now

01:10:55.080 it's going to conquer Taiwan. It's already conquered Hong Kong. So China's growing and it's looking to 0.70

01:11:02.600 dominate the oceans around China. It's expanding. Russia is expanding. It got bigger and in a pretty 0.84

01:11:14.680 important way. And we don't know. I mean, it doesn't look like he's done. He just added more

01:11:20.680 people. He just increased the size of his army substantially. Putin did. And then the United

01:11:27.500 States, we're looking to pick up Greenland and maybe something about Panama and maybe even Canada.

01:11:38.020 So when you see Trump overtly trying to expand, don't feel like that's a risk to the United States.

01:11:50.060 Think about it in terms of there are only two ways that big countries can go. They can keep expanding

01:11:55.180 everything or they die. Somebody else expands onto them. So, you know, maybe Europe is the only place

01:12:05.940 that's operating the opposite and it looks like they're doomed, right? So I don't see anybody in

01:12:12.580 Europe who's trying to expand their country. Instead, they're looking to give it away through mass

01:12:19.800 migration. So you should be able to predict that Europe is doomed and that the US, Russia, and China 0.98

01:12:30.460 are still expansionist countries. And we might, you know, come to blows with each other.

01:12:37.580 I think we'd be smart enough to avoid world wars, but those are three healthy competitive situations 0.92

01:12:44.800 if we don't go broke from debt. Anyway, Russia says it won't accept the U.S. ceasefire proposal

01:12:51.520 because it doesn't give them what they want, which is no NATO in Ukraine and something else,

01:13:00.740 some kind of security guarantee. No, what is it? What did they say? They want to, I don't know,

01:13:06.560 consolidate the land that they've already gotten and make sure that there's no NATO and blah, blah.

01:13:11.900 So, but I'm going to go further. I don't think that Putin's going to say yes to any deal.

01:13:19.460 So I hate to predict this because I would have, well, I did. I predicted that Trump could wrap up

01:13:26.920 the Ukraine war fairly quickly because I thought to myself, well, he's just going to say there's an

01:13:32.560 obvious deal to be made. Russia keeps what it already got. Ukraine doesn't join NATO. But as it's,

01:13:41.900 shaping up, I think I'm going to bet against any kind of a peace deal. I wouldn't bet that we'll

01:13:50.340 necessarily stay supporting Ukraine, which maybe isn't the worst thing that could happen. So

01:13:58.640 I'm going to say that there's not going to be a Ukraine peace deal. And I don't think Putin wants

01:14:05.840 it. I don't think Zelensky wants it. I don't think the European Union wants it, but the U.S. wants it.

01:14:13.280 So I think we'll just bow out. I think maybe we might sell weapons to people who want to buy them,

01:14:19.100 but I think Europe's going to have to cash the check. So yes, no peace deal, in my opinion. It

01:14:29.420 doesn't look like anything's pointing in that direction. According to Tech Explorer, there's

01:14:36.080 this new EV battery breakthrough that you could charge 500% faster, even in sub-zero weather.

01:14:43.380 University of Michigan engineers have it. And apparently it's working so well that it's already

01:14:50.360 being commercialized. So we might see that. If battery driven cars didn't have the cold weather

01:15:00.120 problem, and you could also charge them 500% faster, that's a big deal. Now, I will tell you that I do see

01:15:08.300 a battery breakthrough story every single day. But they all start sounding the same, so I stopped

01:15:15.400 reporting on all of them. But the battery stuff is really interesting. It's really interesting.

01:15:25.140 All right, here's on Andrew Huberman's show, Huberman Lab. He had an expert on who said

01:15:34.660 that if a mom has diabetes, the risk of an autistic child doubles. If the mom has obesity,

01:15:44.420 the risk of having an autistic child doubles. And if the mom has diabetes and obesity, which often go

01:15:52.580 together, it would quadruple the risk of the autistic child. Now, I don't know if I'm fully believing that

01:16:01.580 yet, because that would fall into the somebody who did a study. But I don't know. But first of all,

01:16:10.300 it doesn't match any of my anecdotal experience. Because every time I think of somebody who had a

01:16:18.440 who had an autistic kid, I don't really think of them as being overweight. And so, and I don't know

01:16:26.880 that they had diabetes. So, I haven't really seen it. It's not like something I've noticed or anything

01:16:32.620 like that. So, I'm a little skeptical of this one. But if it's true, it might be at least part of the

01:16:41.600 puzzle of why there's so much of it lately. And it wouldn't surprise me if diabetes and obesity,

01:16:48.220 you know, created a whole bunch of, you know, health problems that you didn't see coming.

01:16:55.100 So, that part sort of makes sense. But I don't know if I'm quite buying into

01:17:00.860 that it might be a big part of the answer. I don't know. I'm a little skeptical. But it could be that

01:17:07.800 there are multiple reasons and they're all environmental and or health. And it'll be hard to untangle it.

01:17:18.220 Meanwhile, according to HR Dive, Emily Shumway is writing that the judge says that IBM must face

01:17:26.480 the discrimination claim from the white male worker who believes that he was fired because he was white

01:17:34.220 so that the bosses could make room for their diversity goals. And let me just read this part.

01:17:44.080 The plaintiff alleged that IBM CEO set specific percentage targets for the racial and gender

01:17:51.340 composition of IBM's workforce. Now, I know that's true because I've seen video of the CEO saying

01:17:57.040 exactly that. And then IBM implemented a system of financial incentives to reward executives who worked

01:18:05.260 to achieve those targets, the DEI targets, according to the lawsuit. And the IBM CEO suggested that executives

01:18:16.460 who did not make progress on getting that diversity they wanted could be penalized or be fired or have their

01:18:25.260 pay reduced. Now, this is the goal versus system problem. As a goal, a little extra diversity might be

01:18:38.060 just positive as a goal. But you have to develop a system to make it happen. The system that he developed,

01:18:49.220 IBM CEO, guarantees that there would be massive discrimination against white people. Why? Follow

01:18:58.520 the money. He created a massive financial interest in discriminating against white people and trying to

01:19:08.920 make it look like it didn't happen. So suddenly, this guy who had been getting good reviews suddenly

01:19:15.460 puts on a gets put on a performance, you know, improvement plan, which is sort of the last thing they do before

01:19:22.260 they fire you, so that they would have some paperwork, allegedly, they would have some paperwork that would

01:19:28.740 support the firing the white guy. Because every time you fired a white guy, and replaced them with a non white 0.96

01:19:35.940 guy, you would make more money. Or, or to put it the other way, the more successful you were discriminating

01:19:45.060 against your white workforce, the less risk there would be that you would get fired, which is all 0.94

01:19:52.660 about money too. So how in the world does the CEO of IBM not understand how money is an incentive? And he

01:20:03.060 didn't realize that people would massively break the law as soon as money was involved. Because they could

01:20:10.740 pretend they weren't doing it. It wouldn't be hard to pretend, right? No, Carl was doing a inexplicably

01:20:20.500 bad job. Autism Capital is saying that Mexican President Claudia Scheinbaum says she will not impose

01:20:30.740 reciprocal tariffs on the US. I'll need to know more about that. But today is going to be fascinating. So if the

01:20:40.020 stock market turns green today, and it might, it would be because a few countries, it wouldn't take

01:20:47.540 many, decided to play ball with Russia, I'm sorry, play ball with the tariff situation, and just be 0.56

01:20:58.820 reasonable, and come up with something that makes sense. So maybe that's what Mexico is doing. Maybe that's 0.52

01:21:05.620 what Israel did, although they didn't have much tariffs. So we'll keep an eye on that. I think there

01:21:14.180 is a real good chance that the stock market will end up in positive territory by the end of the day.

01:21:19.300 All it takes is a little bit of a trend that countries are looking to avoid the economic

01:21:30.180 war and make something work. It wouldn't take much, maybe two or three countries, and the stock market is

01:21:38.340 going to love it. So we'll see. Oh, but I think Trump's announcement will be after the market closes.

01:21:46.500 I'm not sure. Yeah. So we'll see. All right. So IBM's got to figure that out.

01:21:59.300 Elon Musk is getting a lot of attention for saying he posted an X. As I mentioned several years ago,

01:22:05.300 it is increasingly, it increasingly appears that humanity is a biological bootloader for digital

01:22:12.580 super intelligence. Now, of course, he's 100% right. It's just an analogy. It's not like you have

01:22:21.940 to buy into the analogy. But here's what I think. The reason that Elon Musk says we need to be an

01:22:31.060 interplanetary species is that if you stayed on Earth, eventually you would be destroyed

01:22:38.180 by a meteor or the sun burns down or something. So the only way humans can survive is if they're

01:22:45.220 interplanetary. And even that seems like a risk because, you know, I mean, Mars might get destroyed

01:22:53.780 before the United States and before we find a third planet, because it's not like there's a bunch of

01:22:58.500 other planets. But suppose there was some kind of a gigantic risk to all life on Earth. Would that risk

01:23:10.580 be equal to the AI? Could you launch a rocket that just takes the best AIs and puts them on there and

01:23:21.140 has a solar panels and the AI just lives forever as a digital entity that's super intelligence?

01:23:31.140 So it could be that you need the biological entities, we humans, for a brief period of time

01:23:38.820 just to get super intelligence going, which could last forever, potentially. Could last through suns

01:23:45.780 burning out and everything else? Whereas the biological parts are unlikely to survive as easily

01:23:53.380 for, you know, for millions of years anyway. I think you're fine this week. I don't know. I agree

01:23:59.460 with his statement, but people are taking it wrong. They're taking it as if he's saying that AI is more

01:24:06.340 important than human beings, which is exactly the opposite of anything that Elon Musk ever said or believed.

01:24:12.340 Wait, the stock market's already up? Is that true? Oh, I'll be down. The stock market's up already.

01:24:24.340 Well, there you go. There you go. All right, everybody. That's all I have for today. Thanks for joining on

01:24:33.380 X and Rumble and YouTube. I'm going to talk to the subscribers on

01:24:41.220 subscribers on Locals next and privately. The rest of you will see you tomorrow.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 02, 2025

Episode 2797 CWSA 04⧸02⧸25

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