Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2802 CWSA 04⧸07⧸25

00:00:00.200 Coffee with Scott Adams.

00:00:03.040 Usually this is what I tell you to check your stocks,

00:00:06.040 or I check them for you.

00:00:07.700 Don't do that.

00:00:10.960 Whatever you do, don't check your stocks.

00:00:14.800 But let's get our comments going here.

00:00:18.940 And we'll be in good shape.

00:00:21.440 Do, do, do, do, do, do.

00:00:24.300 Do, do, do, do.

00:00:25.500 Do, do, do, do, do, do.

00:00:31.500 Good morning, everybody,

00:00:34.700 and welcome to the highlight of human civilization.

00:00:37.920 It's called Coffee with Scott Adams,

00:00:39.520 and you've never had a better time.

00:00:41.080 But if you'd like to take this experience up to levels

00:00:44.200 that nobody can understand with their tiny, shiny human brains,

00:00:48.380 all you need for that is a cup or mug or a glass of tank or chalice

00:00:51.360 or stein, a canteen jug or a flask of a vessel of any kind.

00:00:54.180 You can fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:00:56.500 I like coffee.

00:00:57.820 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine

00:01:00.640 end of the day, the thing that makes everything better.

00:01:02.960 It's called the simultaneous sip.

00:01:05.420 And guess what?

00:01:06.740 It happens now.

00:01:09.060 Go.

00:01:17.120 Oh, so good.

00:01:18.420 Well, before we get into the politics,

00:01:23.680 let's check on science.

00:01:26.880 Is there any science that didn't need to be done?

00:01:30.020 According to Psy Post of Vladimir Hedra,

00:01:32.880 he's writing that there's a study that shows that men

00:01:36.140 are more distracted by sexual images than women. 0.83

00:01:39.480 Now, you probably know what I'm going to say next.

00:01:46.520 You could have just asked Scott.

00:01:49.640 Yes, somebody got paid to show porn to men and women

00:01:54.540 and then measure their response.

00:01:57.520 I feel like giving a slow clap, a standing ovation

00:02:03.640 to whoever successfully got funding to do their study.

00:02:07.860 If I were a scientist, I would spend most of my time

00:02:11.140 trying to figure out how to do totally bullshit studies

00:02:13.960 that were fun for me.

00:02:16.300 It'd be whatever was my favorite thing.

00:02:19.860 I'd be like, hmm, let's see.

00:02:22.620 Do people who read cartoons have a better day?

00:02:27.660 Does reading cartoons reduce your depression?

00:02:33.240 Anyway, next time, just ask me if you want to know

00:02:36.080 who likes sexual images more, men or women.

00:02:41.300 Let's see.

00:02:42.020 Do we have any backward science

00:02:43.800 where they got the causation backwards?

00:02:45.940 I don't know.

00:02:46.900 Let's look at this one.

00:02:48.000 According to Psy Post, Eric Nolan is writing

00:02:50.820 that there's some new research

00:02:53.360 that links gratitude development

00:02:55.860 to lower adolescent depression.

00:02:59.100 So the more gratitude you develop,

00:03:02.860 the less depression you have is the suggestion.

00:03:06.940 But could that be working the other direction?

00:03:10.600 Because you know what?

00:03:11.680 When I'm depressed, I don't get depressed often,

00:03:14.740 but if I got depressed,

00:03:16.320 I don't think I'd be thinking about gratitude.

00:03:18.400 But if for some reason I became less depressed,

00:03:22.680 I would suddenly think, you know,

00:03:25.220 I'm grateful for this or that.

00:03:27.920 Do you think they got the causation right?

00:03:30.180 I don't know.

00:03:30.840 Maybe.

00:03:31.660 Maybe they did.

00:03:33.320 But this is one where I say to myself,

00:03:36.140 it could have gone the other way.

00:03:39.660 Do you remember the news about the tariffs

00:03:42.860 applying to those two islands

00:03:45.020 that had no people on them, just penguins?

00:03:46.780 Do you remember that story?

00:03:48.920 It turns out there was a good reason

00:03:50.740 for putting tariffs on the penguin islands.

00:03:55.600 If you didn't hear this story, it's funny.

00:03:57.960 When Trump put all of his tariffs on everything,

00:04:02.140 it included two,

00:04:04.160 I guess you'd call them countries,

00:04:05.800 but they don't have any people,

00:04:07.280 just penguins.

00:04:07.960 But the reason is

00:04:10.300 so that real countries with real people

00:04:13.620 can't use the fake countries

00:04:15.980 as a workaround for the tariffs.

00:04:18.760 In other words, they can say,

00:04:20.280 oh, it's not coming from my country.

00:04:22.420 It's coming from the penguin,

00:04:24.540 the penguin island.

00:04:25.600 There's no tariffs on the penguins.

00:04:27.980 So actually it made total sense.

00:04:30.500 They're just closing a loophole.

00:04:31.960 Here's an update on the signal gate.

00:04:36.320 According to the Guardian,

00:04:38.120 they did an investigation

00:04:39.620 and Mike Walsh has been cleared.

00:04:43.260 Now he did make the mistake,

00:04:45.600 but here's what he did not do.

00:04:48.240 He did not ever intentionally add

00:04:50.560 Jeffrey Goldberg to his signal contacts.

00:04:54.980 All right.

00:04:55.240 So if you're asking yourself,

00:04:57.800 well, you know,

00:04:59.220 I understand, you know,

00:05:01.060 punching the wrong button,

00:05:03.700 but why in the world

00:05:05.120 would he have Jeffrey Goldberg's contact

00:05:06.960 in the first place?

00:05:08.140 And the answer is

00:05:08.940 he didn't know he had it.

00:05:10.680 And there is an explanation

00:05:12.540 that makes sense.

00:05:13.740 So let's see if I can get this right.

00:05:16.060 So there was a,

00:05:17.320 there was an email

00:05:18.920 that got forward to the Trump campaign.

00:05:21.760 Now, not to Mike Walsh,

00:05:23.540 but to the campaign.

00:05:24.460 And then the campaign

00:05:26.020 wanted to get some

00:05:26.880 extra people's opinions.

00:05:28.740 The email included

00:05:30.540 Jeffrey Goldberg's contact information.

00:05:34.200 So somebody named Brian Hughes

00:05:36.260 copied and pasted the email

00:05:39.060 from Jeffrey Goldberg

00:05:40.720 into a signal text message.

00:05:44.260 And then signal helpfully

00:05:46.900 thought to itself,

00:05:48.620 hey, if Mike Walsh

00:05:52.380 is looking at a message

00:05:53.460 that has Jeffrey Goldberg's

00:05:55.020 contact information,

00:05:56.620 maybe he would like to add it

00:05:58.160 to his contacts.

00:05:59.820 And somehow,

00:06:01.560 I think it confused

00:06:03.600 the phone number for Goldberg

00:06:06.060 or maybe Walsh did

00:06:07.820 with Brian Hughes.

00:06:09.400 So he thought he was adding

00:06:11.060 Brian Hughes

00:06:12.000 to his contacts

00:06:13.720 based on a suggestion

00:06:15.420 that popped up.

00:06:16.620 But he probably just didn't

00:06:17.860 read the suggestion carefully.

00:06:19.920 And the suggestion

00:06:21.040 was to add

00:06:21.840 Goldberg's name.

00:06:24.540 Now,

00:06:25.280 I accept that.

00:06:27.600 That sounds,

00:06:29.560 it sounds just weird enough

00:06:31.220 that that's a real world thing.

00:06:33.120 So I think that's the end

00:06:36.640 of that story,

00:06:37.320 actually.

00:06:39.560 How many of you

00:06:40.580 have seen Jake Tapper

00:06:41.800 use Tim Walsh

00:06:43.080 as a speed bag

00:06:44.180 on CNN?

00:06:46.320 Poor Tim Walsh.

00:06:48.260 He is so bad

00:06:49.200 at interviews

00:06:49.820 and he's just,

00:06:51.380 he's so game,

00:06:52.120 he's out there all the time.

00:06:54.520 But here's the question

00:06:55.880 that Jake Tapper

00:06:57.200 asked Tim Walsh

00:06:58.500 on CNN.

00:06:59.980 He said,

00:07:00.760 I'm paraphrasing this,

00:07:01.920 but were the Democrats

00:07:02.960 gaslighting the country

00:07:04.360 about Biden's health,

00:07:07.120 inflation,

00:07:07.900 and the border?

00:07:09.800 Imagine being,

00:07:11.280 you know,

00:07:11.980 the number two person

00:07:13.440 who ran for president

00:07:14.440 on the Democrat side.

00:07:16.520 And even CNN

00:07:17.680 is saying,

00:07:19.340 essentially accusing him

00:07:20.660 of gaslighting the country

00:07:22.160 on three of the biggest issues,

00:07:24.660 the health of the president,

00:07:26.580 inflation,

00:07:27.380 and the border.

00:07:27.900 Now,

00:07:30.340 here's how I interpret that.

00:07:32.240 I know a lot of people

00:07:33.000 are saying,

00:07:34.080 that Jake Tapper,

00:07:35.340 he's from the Democrats.

00:07:37.160 Well,

00:07:38.020 he might be.

00:07:39.140 I think he's registered

00:07:40.860 independent or something.

00:07:42.700 But,

00:07:43.160 if I wanted the Democrats

00:07:45.660 to win,

00:07:46.820 I would spend some time

00:07:48.600 destroying Tim Walsh

00:07:50.060 just so he didn't

00:07:51.160 accidentally get nominated

00:07:52.460 because there's no way

00:07:54.020 that guy could win

00:07:55.120 the presidency.

00:07:56.280 There's not even

00:07:56.860 the slightest chance

00:07:57.820 he could be anybody

00:07:58.680 for the presidency.

00:08:00.580 So,

00:08:01.060 maybe that's what's going on.

00:08:03.340 You know,

00:08:03.580 the destruction of Tim Walsh.

00:08:07.540 Well,

00:08:08.100 Adam Schiff,

00:08:09.020 Senator Schiff,

00:08:09.940 was on Beat the Press

00:08:10.960 and he was talking

00:08:13.040 about all the

00:08:13.700 fake

00:08:15.840 protests.

00:08:18.820 No,

00:08:19.080 I call them fake protests

00:08:20.380 because we all know,

00:08:21.680 at this point,

00:08:22.440 we all know

00:08:22.880 that these are artificial.

00:08:24.000 it's people who are paid,

00:08:25.840 it's senior citizens,

00:08:26.780 and it's,

00:08:27.920 you know,

00:08:28.420 it's crazy people.

00:08:29.980 But,

00:08:30.320 basically,

00:08:30.740 these are inorganic.

00:08:32.380 These are completely

00:08:33.200 financed and organized

00:08:35.100 by dark forces,

00:08:37.280 which we have a good idea

00:08:39.320 where they are.

00:08:40.180 And they're all just

00:08:40.820 basically Democrat operatives.

00:08:43.420 So,

00:08:43.880 Schiff is trying to sell

00:08:45.060 all this fake protests

00:08:46.520 as,

00:08:47.080 quote,

00:08:47.320 the energy you're seeing now

00:08:49.260 manifest around the country

00:08:50.640 in these mass demonstrations

00:08:52.460 show that the Democratic Party

00:08:54.560 is waking up.

00:08:57.120 Is that what you're saying?

00:08:58.800 It doesn't look like that to me.

00:09:00.720 If you have to pay people

00:09:02.180 to show up,

00:09:03.500 they're not waking up,

00:09:04.920 they're just cashing a check.

00:09:08.020 But here's the thing

00:09:09.080 that I would be,

00:09:10.100 if I were,

00:09:10.780 if I were going to talk

00:09:12.320 to Adam Schiff,

00:09:13.940 I would ask him

00:09:14.660 the following question.

00:09:16.320 I'd say Adam Schiff,

00:09:18.060 if this is the Democrats

00:09:19.500 waking up,

00:09:20.820 there's some kind of people

00:09:22.480 who are missing

00:09:23.840 from the protests.

00:09:26.040 Let's take a look.

00:09:27.740 All right.

00:09:28.200 I see a lot of middle-aged women 1.00

00:09:29.660 and some of them

00:09:31.900 brought their husbands.

00:09:33.460 I saw a lot of senior citizens.

00:09:36.500 They seem to be

00:09:38.160 almost entirely white.

00:09:40.840 But I don't see

00:09:41.820 any young men

00:09:42.860 and no young men

00:09:46.340 except for a couple

00:09:48.420 of crazy ones.

00:09:49.800 And what about

00:09:50.460 black Americans?

00:09:53.060 How in the world

00:09:53.920 do you get that many people

00:09:55.040 in the street

00:09:55.600 who are Democrats

00:09:56.380 and none of them are black?

00:09:59.420 That is the question

00:10:00.560 which must be asked

00:10:01.740 because what it does

00:10:03.640 is it reveals

00:10:04.480 that it's artificial.

00:10:05.340 what else

00:10:09.380 is it going to be?

00:10:10.640 And it's funny

00:10:11.520 that the news

00:10:12.360 still allows

00:10:13.480 people to pretend

00:10:15.160 these are real.

00:10:17.600 Wouldn't you call

00:10:18.360 these protests

00:10:19.180 the next big

00:10:20.260 gaslighting?

00:10:22.020 If you were

00:10:22.740 Jake Tapper

00:10:23.420 and it's two years

00:10:25.100 from now,

00:10:26.160 are you going to say

00:10:26.880 to somebody

00:10:27.580 who was a guest,

00:10:28.820 were you gaslighting

00:10:29.840 the country,

00:10:30.680 Adam Schiff,

00:10:31.300 when you said

00:10:31.860 that this was

00:10:32.640 the energy

00:10:33.880 manifesting

00:10:34.940 as opposed to

00:10:36.480 obviously paid

00:10:37.460 and organized.

00:10:40.000 So,

00:10:40.720 that's the new

00:10:41.340 gaslight.

00:10:42.620 These are real protests.

00:10:44.440 No, they're not.

00:10:44.940 Bank more encores

00:10:49.860 when you switch

00:10:50.500 to a Scotiabank

00:10:51.400 banking package.

00:10:53.400 Learn more

00:10:53.800 at scotiabank.com

00:10:55.020 slash banking packages.

00:10:56.700 Conditions apply.

00:10:58.500 Scotiabank.

00:10:59.240 You're richer

00:10:59.700 than you think.

00:11:02.100 Well,

00:11:02.720 Trump has raised

00:11:03.580 the logging quota

00:11:04.820 25%.

00:11:06.700 Joel Pollack

00:11:08.780 is writing about

00:11:09.360 this in Breitbart.

00:11:10.860 But there are

00:11:11.400 two reasons.

00:11:12.440 One is to

00:11:13.600 clear the

00:11:14.680 forests

00:11:15.360 to make them

00:11:16.120 less forest fiery,

00:11:19.320 less risk

00:11:20.600 to forest fires.

00:11:22.180 And

00:11:22.740 the other reason

00:11:23.720 is perhaps

00:11:24.760 to get more lumber

00:11:25.900 so that we can

00:11:26.800 compensate for

00:11:27.840 any loss of lumber

00:11:29.600 from Canada

00:11:30.640 from the tariffs,

00:11:31.840 et cetera.

00:11:32.720 But the question

00:11:33.740 I wondered is

00:11:34.920 how often

00:11:35.780 are those

00:11:36.180 the same thing?

00:11:37.600 If you're

00:11:38.400 clearing on a forest

00:11:39.820 for the purpose

00:11:41.040 of fire suppression,

00:11:43.080 are you getting

00:11:43.880 good wood

00:11:44.540 or are you

00:11:46.080 just getting

00:11:46.540 all the crap?

00:11:48.220 And so

00:11:48.880 I went to

00:11:49.300 Grok.

00:11:50.260 Now,

00:11:50.800 I got to tell you,

00:11:51.500 I use Grok 0.97

00:11:52.440 several times

00:11:54.120 a day now.

00:11:54.860 And I'm quite

00:11:55.580 impressed

00:11:56.120 and quite happy

00:11:56.960 with it.

00:11:58.480 When I prepare

00:11:59.400 for the show,

00:12:00.320 there's always

00:12:01.320 some context

00:12:02.280 that's missing.

00:12:03.920 And I always

00:12:04.820 want that context.

00:12:05.980 And it's just

00:12:06.420 write one sentence

00:12:07.940 into Grok

00:12:08.680 and boom,

00:12:09.440 context.

00:12:10.400 So here's

00:12:10.740 what Grok 0.96

00:12:11.220 said.

00:12:12.380 Some of

00:12:12.800 that wood

00:12:14.680 that you

00:12:15.280 clear from

00:12:16.120 the forest

00:12:16.720 just for fire

00:12:17.480 suppression

00:12:17.940 can actually

00:12:19.100 be used

00:12:19.720 for construction.

00:12:21.060 Depends on

00:12:21.520 the kind

00:12:21.880 of trees

00:12:22.560 and how big

00:12:23.260 they are.

00:12:24.300 You can't

00:12:24.840 do much

00:12:25.220 with the

00:12:25.680 small underbrush

00:12:26.940 and there's

00:12:27.920 a lot of that.

00:12:29.780 But depending

00:12:30.580 on the trees,

00:12:31.420 you can use

00:12:32.200 them and if

00:12:33.540 the trees

00:12:33.980 are not the

00:12:34.460 perfect kind,

00:12:35.560 you can turn

00:12:36.080 them into

00:12:36.380 plywood or

00:12:37.160 particle board.

00:12:40.460 But there are

00:12:41.200 probably at least

00:12:41.820 two different

00:12:42.360 reasons why

00:12:43.080 the quota

00:12:44.540 went up.

00:12:45.300 One of them

00:12:45.760 probably is to

00:12:46.340 get good trees

00:12:47.080 for construction.

00:12:49.940 Jonathan Turley

00:12:50.960 is talking

00:12:52.940 about the

00:12:53.880 New York

00:12:54.160 Times news

00:12:54.740 story on

00:12:55.240 Hunter Biden.

00:12:57.200 Now,

00:12:57.760 how many of

00:12:58.360 you knew

00:12:58.880 that the

00:12:59.780 longer Biden

00:13:00.720 is out of

00:13:01.200 office,

00:13:02.260 the more

00:13:02.780 the, let's

00:13:04.200 say,

00:13:04.440 reputable

00:13:04.980 news sources

00:13:05.880 would have

00:13:06.800 to confess,

00:13:07.960 yeah, well,

00:13:08.980 there were

00:13:09.640 some problems

00:13:10.420 there.

00:13:11.900 Yeah, we

00:13:12.440 may have

00:13:13.100 known about

00:13:13.560 a few

00:13:13.880 things.

00:13:15.960 Yeah,

00:13:16.500 Hunter may

00:13:17.200 have done

00:13:17.560 some bad

00:13:18.100 things.

00:13:19.100 So the

00:13:19.500 latest is

00:13:20.140 the New

00:13:20.460 York Times

00:13:21.120 ran a

00:13:22.560 story that

00:13:23.200 when Biden

00:13:25.720 was vice

00:13:26.420 president,

00:13:28.000 that Hunter

00:13:28.640 was working

00:13:29.620 for Burisma

00:13:30.340 and he

00:13:31.660 went to

00:13:32.240 the American

00:13:32.820 ambassador

00:13:33.480 to Italy

00:13:34.700 and tried

00:13:35.720 to get

00:13:35.980 the American

00:13:36.580 ambassador

00:13:37.080 to Italy

00:13:37.660 to help

00:13:39.220 him get

00:13:40.580 the Italians

00:13:41.180 to make

00:13:41.900 some kind

00:13:42.300 of an

00:13:42.520 energy deal.

00:13:44.100 Now,

00:13:44.340 if that's

00:13:44.840 true,

00:13:46.100 and remember

00:13:46.740 this is the

00:13:47.320 New York

00:13:47.600 Times reporting

00:13:48.400 it,

00:13:48.980 so they're

00:13:49.480 not exactly

00:13:50.200 pro-Republican,

00:13:52.900 if it's true,

00:13:54.700 then it's

00:13:55.400 inexplicable

00:13:56.320 why he

00:13:56.740 wasn't

00:13:57.020 prosecuted.

00:13:58.300 Well,

00:13:58.640 it's not

00:13:59.120 inexplicable,

00:14:00.060 obviously.

00:14:00.480 it's because

00:14:02.220 of political

00:14:02.740 connections.

00:14:04.060 But these

00:14:04.500 are exactly

00:14:05.680 the kind

00:14:06.760 of crimes

00:14:07.240 that other

00:14:07.700 people were

00:14:08.180 prosecuted

00:14:08.720 for,

00:14:09.960 Manafort,

00:14:10.540 for example.

00:14:11.860 So it

00:14:12.540 is a crime,

00:14:13.640 it's a

00:14:13.980 fair violation

00:14:14.960 to be

00:14:16.900 lobbying on

00:14:17.740 behalf of

00:14:18.420 a foreign 0.60

00:14:19.020 country.

00:14:22.280 You can't

00:14:23.240 lobby the

00:14:23.720 United States

00:14:24.620 on behalf

00:14:25.380 of a foreign

00:14:26.000 country,

00:14:26.440 which is

00:14:26.880 exactly what

00:14:27.600 he was accused

00:14:28.180 of doing,

00:14:28.560 unless you're

00:14:30.200 a registered

00:14:30.720 agent,

00:14:31.940 and he was

00:14:32.360 not a

00:14:32.680 registered

00:14:33.060 agent.

00:14:34.660 So will

00:14:35.620 that turn

00:14:37.540 into any

00:14:37.980 kind of

00:14:38.280 charges?

00:14:39.240 I doubt

00:14:39.860 it.

00:14:40.680 I doubt

00:14:41.540 it.

00:14:42.460 Maybe he's

00:14:43.300 already

00:14:43.560 pre-pardoned

00:14:44.240 for that.

00:14:46.580 Well,

00:14:47.200 there's a

00:14:47.540 report that

00:14:48.300 Trump is

00:14:49.580 planning a

00:14:50.080 big military

00:14:50.900 parade to

00:14:53.180 celebrate the

00:14:53.760 Army's

00:14:54.160 250th

00:14:55.180 birthday.

00:14:56.360 I didn't

00:14:57.200 know Army's

00:14:57.840 had birthdays,

00:14:58.560 but all

00:15:00.000 right,

00:15:00.360 I didn't

00:15:00.740 even get

00:15:01.100 it or

00:15:01.280 anything.

00:15:03.840 And the

00:15:05.420 route will

00:15:05.920 be from the

00:15:06.440 Pentagon to

00:15:07.080 the White

00:15:07.400 House,

00:15:08.300 just like

00:15:08.820 the Gulf

00:15:09.360 War parade

00:15:11.580 in 1991.

00:15:13.800 So here's

00:15:16.340 what's going

00:15:16.740 to be

00:15:16.940 interesting

00:15:17.300 about a

00:15:17.940 military

00:15:18.380 parade.

00:15:20.480 The point

00:15:21.520 of a

00:15:21.820 military parade

00:15:22.620 is to show

00:15:23.240 how awesome

00:15:23.880 your military

00:15:24.420 is,

00:15:25.740 right?

00:15:26.280 I mean,

00:15:26.620 you're kind

00:15:27.200 of showing the

00:15:27.740 rest of the

00:15:28.180 world.

00:15:28.600 That's why

00:15:29.060 Kim Jong-un

00:15:30.280 does it.

00:15:30.820 It's not

00:15:31.160 just for his

00:15:32.440 local audience.

00:15:33.780 It's to show

00:15:34.340 the world you

00:15:34.920 have this

00:15:35.240 great military.

00:15:37.320 But the

00:15:37.940 problem is

00:15:38.520 almost everything

00:15:39.860 that we're

00:15:40.460 going to

00:15:40.920 highlight in

00:15:42.360 a military

00:15:42.900 parade would

00:15:43.500 be obsolete.

00:15:44.100 elite.

00:15:46.860 I saw a post

00:15:47.980 by Naval

00:15:48.720 Ravikant and

00:15:50.140 he said

00:15:50.500 this, I

00:15:51.100 think it

00:15:51.360 was last

00:15:51.900 night or

00:15:52.280 this morning,

00:15:53.260 he said,

00:15:53.680 any country

00:15:54.320 that can't

00:15:54.920 manufacture

00:15:55.480 drones will

00:15:56.400 be a

00:15:56.720 vassal state.

00:15:58.780 The military

00:15:59.600 is just

00:15:59.980 going to be

00:16:00.280 drones.

00:16:01.940 Everybody

00:16:02.460 smart, I

00:16:04.840 think,

00:16:05.080 understands

00:16:05.580 that.

00:16:05.980 It's just

00:16:06.520 going to be

00:16:06.900 drones.

00:16:07.180 If you can't

00:16:08.160 make drones

00:16:08.880 entirely within

00:16:09.880 your country,

00:16:11.060 or at least

00:16:11.940 let's say

00:16:12.560 with a

00:16:12.880 friendly

00:16:13.200 neighbor,

00:16:13.940 you might

00:16:14.260 have some

00:16:14.660 parts you

00:16:15.080 need,

00:16:16.140 you're not

00:16:17.340 going to be

00:16:18.140 independent

00:16:19.580 very long

00:16:20.220 because whoever

00:16:20.940 can make

00:16:21.380 better drones

00:16:22.020 is just

00:16:22.440 going to

00:16:22.720 own you.

00:16:25.420 So it

00:16:26.100 will be a

00:16:26.520 weird kind

00:16:26.940 of parade

00:16:27.360 because it

00:16:27.900 will be a

00:16:28.400 parade of

00:16:28.980 essentially

00:16:29.600 obsolete

00:16:30.500 military

00:16:31.260 equipment.

00:16:32.900 But it

00:16:33.660 will look

00:16:33.880 impressive,

00:16:34.460 I'm sure.

00:16:35.900 Well, let's

00:16:36.620 talk about

00:16:37.180 the stock

00:16:38.080 market.

00:16:39.880 How many

00:16:41.020 times do

00:16:41.640 you think

00:16:41.940 the stock

00:16:42.500 market has

00:16:43.100 gone down

00:16:43.740 20% or

00:16:45.340 more?

00:16:46.600 Just off the

00:16:47.420 top of your

00:16:47.820 head.

00:16:48.840 In the

00:16:49.520 history of

00:16:50.020 the United

00:16:50.360 States,

00:16:50.920 how many

00:16:51.420 times has

00:16:52.480 it dropped

00:16:52.940 20% or

00:16:54.580 more?

00:16:56.100 According to

00:16:56.960 Grok, the 0.87

00:16:57.600 answer is

00:16:58.200 20 times.

00:17:00.140 How many

00:17:00.860 times did

00:17:01.540 it fail to

00:17:02.380 come back

00:17:03.000 to even

00:17:04.040 higher levels?

00:17:05.940 Zero.

00:17:07.360 Every single

00:17:08.000 time it

00:17:08.420 came back.

00:17:08.900 Now,

00:17:09.720 sometimes it

00:17:10.320 took years.

00:17:11.600 So it

00:17:12.120 might take

00:17:12.720 5 to

00:17:13.500 10 years.

00:17:14.860 But it

00:17:15.500 has a

00:17:15.820 100%

00:17:16.340 record of

00:17:16.920 coming back.

00:17:18.240 100%.

00:17:18.720 But the

00:17:20.980 thing you

00:17:22.160 need to

00:17:22.440 know is

00:17:22.780 that not

00:17:23.180 all

00:17:23.420 corrections are

00:17:24.080 the same.

00:17:25.480 If the

00:17:26.160 reason it

00:17:27.100 went down

00:17:27.740 is that it

00:17:28.940 was oversold

00:17:29.800 by 50%,

00:17:30.960 which is

00:17:32.780 probably the

00:17:33.260 dot-com

00:17:33.740 situation,

00:17:34.760 it's not

00:17:35.620 going to

00:17:35.820 come back

00:17:36.200 quickly.

00:17:36.580 Because all

00:17:38.280 it is is

00:17:38.820 an adjustment

00:17:39.440 until the

00:17:40.140 stocks are

00:17:40.680 worth what

00:17:41.140 they're actually

00:17:41.640 worth instead

00:17:42.500 of being

00:17:43.060 overpriced

00:17:44.480 wildly.

00:17:45.360 So that's

00:17:46.020 going to

00:17:46.220 take a

00:17:46.540 while.

00:17:47.700 But let's

00:17:48.880 say you

00:17:49.200 had some

00:17:49.840 artificial shock

00:17:51.240 from the

00:17:51.640 outside.

00:17:52.860 And it

00:17:53.420 was a

00:17:53.740 temporary

00:17:54.080 shock,

00:17:55.260 and one

00:17:55.820 that didn't

00:17:56.360 involve

00:17:56.960 resources too

00:17:58.600 much.

00:17:59.180 So it

00:17:59.660 wasn't like

00:18:00.100 a shortage

00:18:00.740 of oil,

00:18:01.920 because that

00:18:02.320 caused

00:18:02.640 once.

00:18:03.000 is the

00:18:06.980 S&P

00:18:07.340 up?

00:18:10.400 I see

00:18:11.180 somebody

00:18:11.520 posting in

00:18:12.180 the comments

00:18:12.720 something that

00:18:13.520 looks like

00:18:13.880 the S&P

00:18:14.480 is up,

00:18:15.660 but I

00:18:15.960 don't know

00:18:16.160 about that.

00:18:18.120 So we'll

00:18:19.040 check that

00:18:19.540 after the

00:18:19.980 show,

00:18:20.260 I guess.

00:18:22.040 So here's

00:18:22.780 what I

00:18:23.060 think.

00:18:23.800 I think

00:18:24.340 that the

00:18:24.980 question of

00:18:26.860 how long

00:18:27.600 it will

00:18:27.800 take the

00:18:28.280 stocks to

00:18:28.880 come back,

00:18:30.280 because they'll

00:18:31.160 come back.

00:18:31.640 But whether

00:18:33.000 it takes

00:18:33.480 five to

00:18:33.960 ten years,

00:18:34.700 or it

00:18:34.940 takes six

00:18:35.580 months,

00:18:36.000 or it

00:18:36.280 takes one

00:18:36.700 year,

00:18:37.720 is largely

00:18:39.020 going to

00:18:39.400 be based

00:18:40.680 on how

00:18:41.060 quickly the

00:18:41.640 whole tariff

00:18:42.160 situation gets

00:18:43.060 resolved.

00:18:44.140 So let's

00:18:44.680 talk about

00:18:45.080 that.

00:18:45.940 If the

00:18:46.480 tariff

00:18:46.760 situation is

00:18:47.820 sort of

00:18:48.720 quickly resolved,

00:18:50.080 and let's

00:18:50.520 say by the

00:18:51.140 summer,

00:18:52.480 you're going

00:18:53.360 to see the

00:18:53.800 stock market

00:18:54.360 just tearing

00:18:54.900 back.

00:18:56.140 But there

00:18:56.440 are lots

00:18:56.740 of, you

00:18:57.160 know,

00:18:57.420 that's not

00:18:58.300 easy.

00:18:59.560 But here's

00:19:00.000 what we

00:19:00.260 know.

00:19:00.600 I saw

00:19:01.180 a post

00:19:01.640 by Nick

00:19:02.160 Sorter,

00:19:03.020 who's

00:19:03.220 saying that

00:19:03.720 Taiwan has

00:19:05.120 agreed to

00:19:05.620 drop all

00:19:06.180 tariffs on

00:19:06.840 the U.S.

00:19:07.440 They're

00:19:07.700 joining India,

00:19:08.620 Israel,

00:19:09.080 Vietnam,

00:19:09.540 and Cambodia,

00:19:10.860 who also

00:19:11.240 want to

00:19:11.500 have zero

00:19:11.980 tariffs.

00:19:12.800 Now,

00:19:13.040 here's the

00:19:13.420 trick,

00:19:13.940 if you

00:19:14.360 want to

00:19:14.540 be the

00:19:14.820 smartest

00:19:15.100 person in

00:19:15.720 the room.

00:19:16.560 It's not

00:19:17.360 good enough

00:19:18.100 that countries

00:19:19.620 drop tariffs,

00:19:21.580 because they

00:19:22.380 have other

00:19:22.920 ways to

00:19:23.660 screw us. 0.77

00:19:24.300 anything from

00:19:25.980 currency

00:19:28.840 manipulation to

00:19:29.980 VAT taxes to

00:19:31.200 duties to

00:19:32.900 various

00:19:33.860 restrictions.

00:19:35.440 So some

00:19:36.760 of these

00:19:37.060 offers are

00:19:37.660 kind of

00:19:37.980 fake,

00:19:39.180 meaning that

00:19:39.880 they're not

00:19:40.240 really offering

00:19:41.040 anything because

00:19:42.280 they have other

00:19:42.820 ways to kind

00:19:44.560 of nickel and

00:19:45.060 dime us.

00:19:46.280 So these are

00:19:47.280 negotiations.

00:19:48.480 These are not,

00:19:49.960 even if somebody

00:19:50.680 says, we want to

00:19:51.500 go to zero

00:19:51.940 tariffs,

00:19:53.280 that's the

00:19:53.820 beginning of the

00:19:54.460 negotiation.

00:19:55.660 That's not the

00:19:56.400 end of the

00:19:56.820 negotiation.

00:19:57.740 So we're closer

00:19:58.340 to the beginning

00:19:58.940 than the end,

00:20:00.160 but that looks

00:20:01.160 positive.

00:20:02.020 So over 50 0.99

00:20:03.080 countries have

00:20:03.860 allegedly called

00:20:05.620 to negotiate

00:20:06.240 with Trump.

00:20:06.860 That might be

00:20:07.240 an exaggeration,

00:20:08.180 but I'll bet

00:20:08.540 it's in that

00:20:08.940 range.

00:20:09.780 Claudia was

00:20:10.320 leaving for her

00:20:10.940 pickleball

00:20:11.340 tournament.

00:20:11.900 I've been

00:20:12.140 visualizing my

00:20:12.940 match all

00:20:13.580 week.

00:20:14.400 She was so

00:20:15.000 focused on

00:20:15.500 visualizing that

00:20:16.380 she didn't see

00:20:16.980 the column behind

00:20:17.640 her car on her

00:20:18.540 backhand side.

00:20:20.400 Good thing

00:20:21.080 Claudia's with

00:20:21.700 Intact, the

00:20:22.520 insurer with

00:20:23.140 the largest

00:20:23.620 network of

00:20:24.180 auto service

00:20:24.680 centers in the

00:20:25.440 country.

00:20:26.100 Everything was

00:20:26.640 taken care of

00:20:27.280 under one roof

00:20:28.020 and she was

00:20:28.560 on her way in

00:20:29.060 a rental car

00:20:29.680 in no time.

00:20:30.560 I made it to

00:20:31.300 my tournament

00:20:31.920 and lost in

00:20:33.100 the first round.

00:20:34.040 But you got

00:20:34.860 there on time.

00:20:35.880 Intact Insurance,

00:20:37.040 your auto service

00:20:37.800 ace.

00:20:38.500 Certain conditions

00:20:39.040 apply.

00:20:40.320 And here's

00:20:41.660 something that

00:20:42.560 mattered to me

00:20:43.260 a lot.

00:20:44.820 I've mentioned

00:20:45.400 this before a

00:20:46.540 number of times,

00:20:47.420 but the top

00:20:49.120 banker in the

00:20:50.140 country,

00:20:50.500 in my

00:20:51.520 opinion,

00:20:51.980 would be

00:20:52.420 Jamie

00:20:52.760 Diamond.

00:20:54.060 So if

00:20:54.820 Jamie

00:20:55.120 Diamond says

00:20:56.380 something,

00:20:56.960 you should

00:20:57.380 listen,

00:20:57.880 not only

00:20:58.280 because he

00:20:58.820 has a long

00:20:59.500 track record

00:21:00.140 of being

00:21:00.580 wise and

00:21:02.080 somewhat

00:21:02.740 nonpolitical,

00:21:04.240 so he's

00:21:04.940 just sort of

00:21:05.380 calling it

00:21:05.820 like he

00:21:06.180 sees it.

00:21:07.600 He says

00:21:08.280 the tariff

00:21:10.300 policy issue

00:21:11.100 should be

00:21:11.560 resolved

00:21:11.940 quickly.

00:21:13.500 That's the

00:21:14.220 head banker

00:21:14.820 of the

00:21:15.120 country,

00:21:16.040 who again

00:21:16.660 is not

00:21:17.240 Republican,

00:21:18.340 Democrat,

00:21:18.740 he might

00:21:19.200 be

00:21:19.320 Democrat,

00:21:20.180 but he's

00:21:20.880 famously,

00:21:22.660 and I

00:21:23.300 appreciate it,

00:21:24.920 he's

00:21:25.440 nonpolitical.

00:21:26.560 He's a

00:21:26.900 little bit

00:21:27.200 political on

00:21:27.800 DEI stuff,

00:21:28.800 but I'm

00:21:29.620 just assuming

00:21:30.180 he has a

00:21:30.660 daughter that

00:21:31.140 cares about

00:21:31.720 him.

00:21:32.700 I don't

00:21:33.280 know if

00:21:33.520 that's his

00:21:33.900 actual opinion.

00:21:35.340 But when

00:21:36.100 he's talking

00:21:36.480 about economic

00:21:37.340 stuff, he's

00:21:39.060 one of the

00:21:39.420 people you

00:21:39.780 want to

00:21:40.000 listen to.

00:21:41.160 So if

00:21:41.540 Jamie

00:21:41.840 Diamond

00:21:42.200 says,

00:21:43.300 yeah,

00:21:43.500 this will

00:21:43.780 be fine,

00:21:44.480 we'll just

00:21:44.900 work out this

00:21:45.540 tariff stuff

00:21:46.120 pretty quickly,

00:21:47.080 that is a

00:21:47.800 really good

00:21:48.240 signal to

00:21:49.440 the market

00:21:49.920 because he's

00:21:50.760 not crazy,

00:21:51.860 he's not

00:21:52.440 lying,

00:21:53.420 that's almost

00:21:54.420 certainly his

00:21:55.080 real opinion.

00:21:56.280 And there

00:21:56.680 are very few

00:21:57.220 people who

00:21:57.800 would have

00:21:58.180 the complete

00:21:59.740 understanding of

00:22:00.920 the economy

00:22:01.560 to say that

00:22:03.040 this is going

00:22:03.600 to resolve

00:22:04.140 quickly.

00:22:06.200 Well,

00:22:06.680 here's what

00:22:07.100 Trump is

00:22:08.020 crowing about

00:22:08.760 today on

00:22:09.340 True Social.

00:22:10.040 He said,

00:22:10.500 oil prices

00:22:11.200 are down,

00:22:12.040 interest rates

00:22:12.600 are down.

00:22:13.180 I guess

00:22:14.960 apparently

00:22:15.320 the Fed

00:22:16.240 is meeting

00:22:16.760 today,

00:22:18.260 which means

00:22:19.240 I don't

00:22:19.980 think it's

00:22:20.320 a decision

00:22:20.860 about interest

00:22:21.520 rates today,

00:22:22.880 but it

00:22:24.720 seems like

00:22:25.220 everything is

00:22:25.780 set for

00:22:26.200 them to

00:22:26.700 lower interest

00:22:27.820 rates,

00:22:28.160 we'll see.

00:22:28.740 That will

00:22:29.180 be the

00:22:29.500 biggest deal

00:22:30.260 if they

00:22:31.120 do.

00:22:31.920 Trump says

00:22:32.540 food prices

00:22:33.180 down,

00:22:33.800 there's no

00:22:34.220 inflation,

00:22:35.140 I don't

00:22:35.480 know about

00:22:35.800 no inflation,

00:22:37.060 and the

00:22:37.620 long-time

00:22:38.040 abused USA

00:22:38.860 is bringing

00:22:39.560 billions of

00:22:40.260 dollars a week

00:22:40.820 from the

00:22:41.220 abusing

00:22:41.580 countries.

00:22:43.180 The

00:22:43.660 abusing

00:22:44.120 countries

00:22:44.720 from the

00:22:45.660 tariffs

00:22:45.960 already in

00:22:46.520 place.

00:22:48.300 And then

00:22:48.940 he's saying

00:22:49.200 that China 0.93

00:22:49.640 is the

00:22:49.960 biggest

00:22:50.180 abuser

00:22:50.560 at all,

00:22:51.440 and he

00:22:51.720 says their

00:22:52.260 markets are

00:22:52.960 crashing,

00:22:54.580 which is

00:22:55.480 apparently

00:22:56.300 true,

00:22:57.000 not crashing

00:22:57.920 as much

00:22:58.320 as ours,

00:22:58.840 but the

00:22:59.220 Hong Kong

00:22:59.960 market seems

00:23:02.220 to be down

00:23:02.820 13% last

00:23:04.380 time I

00:23:04.720 checked.

00:23:05.240 That would

00:23:05.600 have changed

00:23:05.980 by now.

00:23:07.220 And the

00:23:07.980 currency is

00:23:08.840 having a

00:23:09.220 problem over

00:23:10.480 there in

00:23:11.480 China.

00:23:11.780 China will 0.99

00:23:14.680 be the

00:23:15.060 last country

00:23:17.280 to negotiate

00:23:18.400 just because

00:23:21.320 I think

00:23:22.460 China would 0.99

00:23:23.000 be perfectly

00:23:23.620 happy if

00:23:24.980 they could

00:23:25.940 force Trump

00:23:26.980 out of

00:23:27.300 office by

00:23:27.980 not negotiating

00:23:28.900 and not

00:23:30.000 selling

00:23:30.360 TikTok.

00:23:31.500 So they

00:23:31.920 may have

00:23:32.240 a different

00:23:33.620 game,

00:23:35.120 whereas

00:23:35.620 stocks are

00:23:37.080 up.

00:23:37.360 I'll be

00:23:37.860 down.

00:23:38.080 So let's

00:23:42.700 see what

00:23:42.960 else is

00:23:43.240 going.

00:23:44.520 Then Trump

00:23:45.220 also says

00:23:45.920 he's not

00:23:46.440 willing to

00:23:47.000 make a deal

00:23:47.480 with China

00:23:48.000 unless the

00:23:49.420 trade deficit

00:23:50.120 is solved.

00:23:51.620 Now,

00:23:52.060 there's a

00:23:52.440 trillion dollar,

00:23:53.700 I guess,

00:23:54.760 annual trade

00:23:55.800 deficit with

00:23:56.500 China,

00:23:57.100 and he

00:23:57.940 says it

00:23:58.360 has to be

00:23:58.900 solved.

00:23:59.400 It's not

00:24:00.080 good enough

00:24:00.600 just to

00:24:01.100 negotiate.

00:24:03.500 Wow,

00:24:04.300 China is 0.85

00:24:04.720 down.

00:24:04.920 It's not

00:24:06.140 good enough

00:24:06.540 to negotiate

00:24:07.240 just the

00:24:08.020 tariffs.

00:24:09.220 We need

00:24:10.000 to make

00:24:11.200 sure that we

00:24:11.680 don't have

00:24:11.940 the trade

00:24:12.240 deficit.

00:24:12.760 Now,

00:24:12.940 the only

00:24:13.280 way you

00:24:13.640 can do

00:24:13.980 that,

00:24:15.700 I'll

00:24:16.600 take a

00:24:17.000 fact check

00:24:17.520 on this,

00:24:18.180 is if

00:24:18.860 China moved 0.91

00:24:19.900 production to

00:24:20.760 the United

00:24:21.140 States.

00:24:22.640 But is

00:24:23.180 that going

00:24:23.480 to happen?

00:24:24.680 So can

00:24:25.500 you really

00:24:26.000 get China's 0.99

00:24:27.320 trade deficit

00:24:28.140 of a trillion

00:24:29.060 dollars down?

00:24:31.060 I don't

00:24:31.320 know.

00:24:31.880 Maybe.

00:24:32.800 I don't

00:24:33.420 know how

00:24:33.760 you could

00:24:34.040 do it.

00:24:34.920 But maybe.

00:24:36.840 I guess I'm

00:24:37.620 open to

00:24:37.980 hearing the

00:24:38.320 argument for

00:24:38.860 that, what 0.78

00:24:39.640 that would

00:24:39.940 look like.

00:24:42.140 Well,

00:24:42.760 Australia has

00:24:43.820 contacted the

00:24:44.840 U.S.

00:24:45.420 They want to

00:24:46.180 start

00:24:46.420 negotiations

00:24:47.260 because they

00:24:50.280 obviously are

00:24:51.360 getting hit

00:24:51.800 pretty hard.

00:24:52.940 The European 0.80

00:24:53.860 Union says

00:24:55.720 we're ready to

00:24:57.020 negotiate with

00:24:57.800 the U.S.

00:24:58.420 on tariffs.

00:24:59.760 Japan's

00:25:00.400 prime minister

00:25:01.100 just said

00:25:02.320 we need to

00:25:03.000 propose ideas

00:25:03.920 about how we

00:25:04.640 can together

00:25:05.220 create jobs

00:25:06.160 in the United

00:25:06.740 States and

00:25:08.100 contribute to

00:25:08.900 their economy.

00:25:10.300 Now, Japan 0.98

00:25:11.580 really knows

00:25:12.300 how to be an

00:25:12.800 ally, don't

00:25:13.360 they?

00:25:15.140 Have we ever

00:25:16.000 had a better

00:25:16.560 ally than

00:25:17.940 Japan?

00:25:19.040 Now, I

00:25:19.520 suppose the

00:25:20.820 fact that they

00:25:21.380 depend on us

00:25:22.140 for military

00:25:23.320 protection is a

00:25:25.760 big part of

00:25:26.460 this.

00:25:27.200 But this is

00:25:28.140 exactly what I

00:25:29.260 want to hear.

00:25:29.760 it's almost

00:25:31.640 better than

00:25:32.180 what I

00:25:32.520 expected.

00:25:33.700 That they

00:25:34.380 want to work

00:25:34.940 hard to

00:25:35.340 come up

00:25:35.660 with ideas

00:25:36.340 about how

00:25:36.980 to create

00:25:37.400 jobs in

00:25:37.980 the United

00:25:38.320 States and

00:25:39.680 contribute to

00:25:40.460 our economy.

00:25:42.400 Good.

00:25:43.140 So I guess

00:25:43.660 that would

00:25:43.960 mean more

00:25:44.520 other countries

00:25:45.140 manufacturing over

00:25:46.620 here to

00:25:48.720 avoid tariffs.

00:25:49.640 do you

00:25:53.100 remember

00:25:53.460 France's

00:25:54.720 Macron?

00:25:56.840 He had

00:25:57.720 suggested that

00:25:59.380 the French

00:26:00.440 companies stop

00:26:01.340 doing business

00:26:02.080 with the

00:26:02.440 United States.

00:26:04.620 And I

00:26:05.520 thought to

00:26:05.840 myself,

00:26:06.540 what?

00:26:07.560 Can French

00:26:08.420 companies really

00:26:09.240 stop doing

00:26:11.940 business with

00:26:12.600 the United

00:26:12.920 States?

00:26:14.160 Is that

00:26:14.740 even a

00:26:15.120 thing?

00:26:16.080 And

00:26:16.460 apparently

00:26:16.840 the big

00:26:18.300 French

00:26:18.720 companies

00:26:19.180 just told

00:26:19.780 them to

00:26:20.100 stuff it

00:26:20.460 up his

00:26:20.760 ass because 1.00

00:26:21.700 there's no

00:26:23.020 way that

00:26:23.560 Macron can

00:26:27.580 tell them

00:26:28.040 where they

00:26:28.460 should invest

00:26:29.120 and they're

00:26:29.980 definitely

00:26:30.300 going to

00:26:30.580 invest in

00:26:31.020 the United

00:26:31.320 States.

00:26:31.720 A lot

00:26:31.900 of them

00:26:32.100 have gigantic

00:26:33.100 entities.

00:26:35.340 Why am I

00:26:36.040 seeing so

00:26:36.480 many numbers?

00:26:40.080 There's a

00:26:40.660 whole bunch

00:26:40.960 of numbers

00:26:41.540 in the

00:26:41.880 comments,

00:26:42.720 but they're

00:26:43.080 all over

00:26:43.580 the place.

00:26:45.320 What do

00:26:45.900 the numbers

00:26:46.360 refer to?

00:26:47.000 because a

00:26:49.480 whole bunch

00:26:49.980 of you

00:26:50.280 are very

00:26:50.800 insistent

00:26:51.560 on saying

00:26:54.420 something with

00:26:55.040 numbers.

00:27:01.660 What's

00:27:02.380 this?

00:27:04.300 Breaking.

00:27:05.320 Trump

00:27:05.560 considering a

00:27:06.360 pause to

00:27:06.940 tariffs for

00:27:07.520 90 days,

00:27:08.560 excluding

00:27:09.060 China.

00:27:10.360 The market

00:27:11.040 explodes green

00:27:12.160 in celebration.

00:27:12.940 pause and

00:27:16.160 tariffs.

00:27:17.000 Well, the

00:27:17.260 pause and

00:27:17.680 tariffs,

00:27:18.320 that was my

00:27:18.940 very next

00:27:19.480 thing.

00:27:22.640 Investor

00:27:23.080 finance,

00:27:23.700 what would

00:27:24.000 you call

00:27:24.320 him?

00:27:24.980 Investor?

00:27:25.880 Bill

00:27:26.180 Ackman,

00:27:27.480 he had

00:27:28.260 suggested a

00:27:29.020 90-day

00:27:29.500 pause.

00:27:31.360 Now, a

00:27:31.900 90-day

00:27:32.380 pause makes

00:27:33.040 perfect sense

00:27:33.960 if the

00:27:35.240 countries are

00:27:38.040 willing to

00:27:38.500 negotiate.

00:27:38.960 And given

00:27:40.580 that so

00:27:41.000 many have

00:27:41.480 shown a

00:27:41.920 willingness to

00:27:42.640 negotiate,

00:27:44.280 you should

00:27:45.380 expect that

00:27:46.400 90 days

00:27:47.480 would be

00:27:48.180 completely

00:27:49.060 sane.

00:27:50.660 So, good.

00:27:53.600 I heard

00:27:54.320 there's a

00:27:54.780 little bit

00:27:55.680 of a

00:27:55.960 pushback

00:27:56.520 between

00:27:56.920 Bill Ackman

00:27:57.620 and

00:27:58.140 Lutnik,

00:27:59.380 you know,

00:27:59.920 Lutnik on

00:28:00.980 the Trump

00:28:01.740 administration,

00:28:02.680 because Ackman

00:28:03.980 thinks that

00:28:04.620 Lutnik is

00:28:05.420 long bonds,

00:28:07.180 meaning that

00:28:07.780 he owns

00:28:08.540 bonds in

00:28:09.800 his investment

00:28:10.580 company, I

00:28:11.160 guess.

00:28:11.900 And if you

00:28:12.400 own bonds,

00:28:13.660 then the

00:28:15.180 stock market

00:28:15.820 going down

00:28:16.400 is good for

00:28:17.020 you, because

00:28:17.860 people will

00:28:18.320 take their

00:28:18.660 money and

00:28:19.040 put it in

00:28:19.400 bonds, and

00:28:19.940 that drives

00:28:20.720 the price

00:28:21.120 up.

00:28:22.180 So, I

00:28:22.800 don't know

00:28:23.060 if that has

00:28:23.780 anything to

00:28:24.320 do with

00:28:24.600 what Lutnik's

00:28:25.320 up to, but

00:28:26.000 everybody who's

00:28:27.640 rich has all

00:28:29.300 these conflicts

00:28:30.080 of interest.

00:28:31.300 There's just

00:28:31.800 no way for a

00:28:32.520 rich person to

00:28:33.240 do anything

00:28:33.740 without a

00:28:34.180 conflict of

00:28:34.820 interest, because

00:28:35.500 they're just

00:28:35.820 too connected

00:28:36.440 to too many

00:28:37.200 things.

00:28:37.780 In related

00:28:41.660 news, China

00:28:44.320 is getting

00:28:44.880 dumber,

00:28:45.660 according to

00:28:48.120 a user,

00:28:49.460 Kremu.

00:28:53.020 The S&P

00:28:54.100 is up

00:28:54.560 three,

00:28:57.540 what is

00:28:58.180 that?

00:29:00.520 It looks

00:29:01.260 like the

00:29:01.680 Dow is up

00:29:02.260 a hundred.

00:29:04.700 Ackman 0.95

00:29:05.020 apologized.

00:29:05.780 Oh, Bill

00:29:06.460 Ackman 0.95

00:29:06.780 apologized about

00:29:07.680 the bond

00:29:08.120 thing.

00:29:08.740 Okay, that's

00:29:09.340 good.

00:29:11.600 Yeah, if the

00:29:13.600 pause in the

00:29:14.480 tariffs makes

00:29:15.960 the stock market

00:29:16.820 shoot up, that's

00:29:18.900 telling you that it

00:29:19.660 was never going to

00:29:20.300 be permanent.

00:29:21.980 Well, not a

00:29:23.620 hundred percent for

00:29:24.320 sure.

00:29:24.980 But it does

00:29:25.640 indicate that this

00:29:26.620 was not a

00:29:27.660 permanent structural

00:29:29.360 problem, but

00:29:30.580 rather just

00:29:31.120 something that we

00:29:31.660 had to bang

00:29:32.620 our way through.

00:29:33.240 And the

00:29:34.860 90-day pause

00:29:35.920 is a very

00:29:37.400 positive sign

00:29:40.120 that the

00:29:41.520 U.S. and

00:29:42.060 the other

00:29:42.360 countries are

00:29:42.880 taking it very

00:29:43.640 seriously, and

00:29:44.800 they're going to

00:29:45.200 bang their way

00:29:45.740 through.

00:29:46.740 So, good.

00:29:48.320 Anyway, getting

00:29:49.120 back to

00:29:49.760 Kremu, he

00:29:52.120 said a friend of

00:29:52.900 his made a

00:29:53.400 graph that he

00:29:54.320 showed on

00:29:54.740 X.

00:29:55.840 The graph

00:29:56.700 shows that the

00:29:57.420 fertility rate in

00:29:58.720 China is much 1.00

00:30:00.560 higher in the

00:30:01.200 provinces with

00:30:02.060 the lowest IQ.

00:30:04.640 So, the

00:30:05.460 smartest people in

00:30:06.840 China, this is 0.99

00:30:09.200 obviously not a

00:30:09.980 hundred percent, but

00:30:11.440 a lot of the

00:30:12.220 smart people end

00:30:12.940 up in the cities

00:30:13.800 because that's

00:30:14.860 where the good

00:30:15.380 jobs are.

00:30:16.540 But it's also

00:30:17.360 expensive to live

00:30:18.480 and expensive to

00:30:19.260 have a kid, and

00:30:20.220 it's in their

00:30:21.680 system.

00:30:22.260 It's hard to find

00:30:23.300 somebody to marry

00:30:24.200 unless they live

00:30:25.280 in your city.

00:30:26.740 So, the

00:30:28.100 smartest people

00:30:28.980 have been

00:30:29.960 compressed into

00:30:30.760 the cities and

00:30:31.720 put in a

00:30:32.200 situation where

00:30:32.920 having children

00:30:33.700 isn't such a

00:30:35.320 great deal

00:30:35.840 economically,

00:30:37.120 whereas if you're

00:30:38.160 living in a

00:30:38.720 rural area,

00:30:40.540 having some

00:30:41.120 kids to help

00:30:41.700 you farm might

00:30:43.120 be just a

00:30:43.620 plus.

00:30:44.960 So, the

00:30:45.760 net effect is

00:30:48.160 that China is 0.73

00:30:48.760 getting dumber

00:30:49.360 really fast

00:30:50.300 because the

00:30:52.080 low IQ people

00:30:53.660 are apparently

00:30:55.940 very fertile.

00:30:59.500 In other

00:31:00.280 news, Iran

00:31:02.340 has counter

00:31:03.580 offered.

00:31:05.020 Now, Iran, 0.91

00:31:05.980 we're not

00:31:06.280 talking about

00:31:06.820 tariffs in this

00:31:07.460 case.

00:31:07.840 Iran is talking 1.00

00:31:08.740 about war

00:31:09.800 because I think

00:31:11.740 there's a May

00:31:12.380 deadline from

00:31:13.760 Trump to

00:31:15.320 the May

00:31:17.060 deadline for

00:31:18.060 Iran to

00:31:19.740 essentially become

00:31:21.240 sane or else

00:31:22.120 where Trump

00:31:22.700 says he's

00:31:23.160 going to

00:31:23.440 bomb them.

00:31:25.020 And they've

00:31:25.700 decided that

00:31:26.460 they're going

00:31:28.020 to talk to

00:31:28.680 us indirectly

00:31:29.400 through Oman.

00:31:33.280 But, and

00:31:35.240 then separately,

00:31:36.100 Reuters is

00:31:36.760 reporting that

00:31:37.460 Iran-backed

00:31:38.480 militias in

00:31:39.140 Iraq are 0.96

00:31:39.700 ready to

00:31:40.160 disarm to

00:31:40.800 avert Trump's

00:31:41.540 wrath.

00:31:42.860 I don't know

00:31:43.640 if these are

00:31:44.240 important militias

00:31:46.340 or just maybe

00:31:47.280 some small

00:31:47.940 militia that

00:31:48.600 wasn't getting

00:31:49.100 funded by Iran

00:31:50.000 anymore.

00:31:50.780 So I'm not

00:31:51.520 sure the

00:31:51.980 militias are

00:31:52.780 telling you

00:31:53.180 much.

00:31:54.160 And I don't

00:31:54.980 think that

00:31:55.500 Iran is

00:31:56.140 serious about

00:31:56.840 negotiating.

00:31:57.860 I think

00:31:58.240 they're just

00:31:58.620 stalling.

00:32:00.340 I think the

00:32:01.420 longer they

00:32:02.120 drag it out,

00:32:03.020 the happier

00:32:04.340 they are.

00:32:04.940 So I don't

00:32:05.520 see any hope

00:32:06.140 that that's

00:32:06.600 going to go

00:32:06.940 anywhere.

00:32:09.220 This is

00:32:09.880 interesting.

00:32:10.420 Apparently

00:32:10.700 the U.S.

00:32:12.360 has gone

00:32:13.140 hard against

00:32:13.760 the Sinaloa

00:32:14.580 cartel and

00:32:15.880 sanctioned six

00:32:17.080 individuals and

00:32:18.060 seven entities,

00:32:19.000 entities being

00:32:20.740 companies,

00:32:22.800 that were

00:32:23.640 basically fake

00:32:25.340 money laundering

00:32:28.060 companies so

00:32:29.020 that they

00:32:29.400 could money

00:32:29.800 launder their

00:32:30.520 illegal gains.

00:32:33.680 This is

00:32:34.500 according to

00:32:35.100 Gateway

00:32:35.960 Hispanic.

00:32:38.860 Now,

00:32:39.180 here's my

00:32:39.660 question about

00:32:40.260 that.

00:32:41.300 How hard

00:32:41.900 was it for

00:32:42.520 the United

00:32:42.960 States to

00:32:44.080 find how

00:32:45.020 the Sinaloa

00:32:45.880 cartel was

00:32:46.860 laundering its

00:32:48.060 money?

00:32:49.000 Doesn't that

00:32:49.980 feel like the

00:32:50.600 sort of thing

00:32:51.300 we should

00:32:51.780 have already

00:32:52.160 known?

00:32:53.700 And does

00:32:54.080 that indicate

00:32:54.720 that the

00:32:55.600 Biden

00:32:55.860 administration

00:32:56.500 just wasn't

00:32:57.540 even doing

00:32:58.380 anything?

00:33:00.020 Or was

00:33:01.100 there some

00:33:01.500 magic process

00:33:02.820 that the

00:33:03.420 Trump

00:33:03.680 administration

00:33:04.340 applied that

00:33:05.760 they could

00:33:06.080 find these

00:33:06.660 money laundering

00:33:07.480 individuals

00:33:08.160 quickly?

00:33:10.580 I don't

00:33:13.120 know.

00:33:13.740 Yeah.

00:33:14.440 So the

00:33:15.220 cartel CIA

00:33:17.440 connection may

00:33:18.380 be part of

00:33:18.840 that story.

00:33:19.840 But apparently

00:33:20.720 Trump's not

00:33:21.520 worried about

00:33:21.980 that because

00:33:22.840 he just said

00:33:23.580 we're going

00:33:24.380 after your

00:33:24.820 money.

00:33:26.160 And probably

00:33:28.000 they know

00:33:29.380 how.

00:33:30.520 So that's

00:33:31.520 good.

00:33:32.560 Ontario,

00:33:33.540 the wait is

00:33:34.380 over.

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00:34:33.980 Well,

00:34:34.620 do you remember

00:34:35.040 that group

00:34:35.620 called GARM?

00:34:37.600 G-A-R-M. 1.00

00:34:39.300 It was that

00:34:39.880 big group of

00:34:40.640 people who

00:34:41.380 tried to

00:34:42.940 organize all

00:34:43.560 the companies

00:34:44.160 that advertised

00:34:44.820 so that they

00:34:46.080 had this

00:34:46.480 powerful

00:34:47.260 advertiser

00:34:48.240 cartel,

00:34:49.800 and they

00:34:50.380 could tell

00:34:50.940 X or

00:34:53.900 anybody else

00:34:54.620 what to do,

00:34:56.340 or they

00:34:56.920 could say,

00:34:57.580 we're not

00:34:57.840 going to be

00:34:58.360 advertising on

00:34:59.140 X, and

00:34:59.580 then all the

00:35:00.060 companies of

00:35:00.660 Garam would 1.00

00:35:01.140 say, all

00:35:01.560 right, we're

00:35:02.120 not on

00:35:02.920 X.

00:35:04.040 Well,

00:35:04.800 MasterCard,

00:35:05.700 which was

00:35:06.180 one of the

00:35:06.800 GARM

00:35:07.540 people,

00:35:08.720 according to

00:35:09.660 Reclaim the

00:35:10.240 Net,

00:35:10.740 D.D.

00:35:11.220 Rankovich,

00:35:12.480 they've decided

00:35:13.360 to pull out.

00:35:14.700 Now, it's just

00:35:15.400 one company,

00:35:16.980 but their

00:35:17.500 reasons were

00:35:18.300 that they're

00:35:21.000 taking steps

00:35:21.700 to, quote,

00:35:22.260 distance itself

00:35:23.300 from that

00:35:24.740 chapter in

00:35:25.400 its corporate

00:35:25.960 history.

00:35:27.000 In other words,

00:35:27.740 they were

00:35:28.020 embarrassed.

00:35:28.580 Now, that's

00:35:30.280 exactly the

00:35:31.060 right response.

00:35:32.660 MasterCard

00:35:33.220 should have

00:35:33.720 been embarrassed

00:35:34.420 that they

00:35:35.660 were an

00:35:36.300 anti-free

00:35:37.200 speech

00:35:37.760 contributor.

00:35:40.020 By being

00:35:40.820 part of

00:35:41.180 Garam,

00:35:42.060 they were

00:35:42.380 part of

00:35:42.760 the badness,

00:35:43.820 and there

00:35:44.240 was no

00:35:44.540 reason for

00:35:45.040 it.

00:35:46.180 So,

00:35:47.300 that's a

00:35:48.000 positive sign.

00:35:48.940 Moving in

00:35:49.460 the right

00:35:49.720 direction.

00:35:53.740 You know

00:35:54.440 the deep

00:35:55.640 seek AI

00:35:57.640 that China 0.93

00:35:58.220 came up

00:35:58.680 with,

00:35:59.020 it was

00:35:59.360 lower

00:35:59.860 cost,

00:36:00.580 but seemingly

00:36:01.640 almost as

00:36:02.480 good as

00:36:02.900 the American

00:36:03.600 models that

00:36:04.320 were much

00:36:04.960 more expensive.

00:36:07.200 Well,

00:36:07.820 apparently,

00:36:08.240 the next

00:36:08.560 thing that's

00:36:08.980 coming from

00:36:09.520 deep seek

00:36:10.180 is self-improving

00:36:12.980 models.

00:36:14.520 Now,

00:36:14.980 they're not

00:36:15.540 self-improving

00:36:16.320 yet,

00:36:17.520 but apparently

00:36:18.320 there's a

00:36:19.040 working paper

00:36:20.280 that shows

00:36:20.880 that's what's

00:36:21.380 coming.

00:36:22.540 And what

00:36:23.180 that means

00:36:23.640 is that the

00:36:24.280 AI will

00:36:25.040 use some

00:36:26.720 kind of a

00:36:27.400 judge

00:36:28.400 system

00:36:29.100 to try

00:36:31.680 to learn

00:36:32.080 things and

00:36:32.660 then judge

00:36:33.140 whether it's

00:36:33.640 learning the

00:36:34.080 right things.

00:36:35.460 And so,

00:36:35.980 this is the

00:36:36.340 next big

00:36:36.840 thing in

00:36:37.420 AI,

00:36:38.420 is AI

00:36:39.200 that can

00:36:39.720 improve on

00:36:40.980 its own.

00:36:43.000 Now,

00:36:43.380 here's what

00:36:43.840 the former

00:36:44.420 Google CEO

00:36:45.760 Eric Schmidt

00:36:46.920 said about

00:36:47.480 that.

00:36:49.120 He argued

00:36:49.980 that we might

00:36:50.580 need a kill

00:36:51.160 switch for

00:36:51.760 such systems.

00:36:52.680 When the

00:36:53.080 systems can

00:36:53.720 self-improve,

00:36:54.860 we need to

00:36:55.500 seriously think

00:36:56.280 about unplugging

00:36:57.140 it.

00:36:59.560 And I

00:37:00.340 understand that

00:37:01.780 because if

00:37:02.480 the AI is

00:37:03.760 improving on

00:37:04.380 its own,

00:37:04.800 you don't

00:37:05.080 know what

00:37:05.340 you're getting

00:37:05.780 and it

00:37:06.500 might improve

00:37:07.040 too fast.

00:37:07.860 But I don't

00:37:08.720 think that's

00:37:09.240 going to apply

00:37:10.260 to these

00:37:10.860 LLMs.

00:37:13.000 My guess

00:37:13.820 is that the

00:37:14.940 self-improving

00:37:16.100 models that

00:37:18.120 you have to

00:37:18.480 worry about

00:37:19.060 would be a

00:37:20.200 future technology

00:37:21.180 that we don't

00:37:21.740 yet have.

00:37:22.340 I think

00:37:24.180 the large

00:37:24.620 language models

00:37:25.400 are just

00:37:25.820 sort of

00:37:26.340 lossy

00:37:27.020 and buggy.

00:37:29.080 So probably

00:37:29.840 all this will

00:37:30.420 do is

00:37:31.020 fill in

00:37:31.940 some cracks

00:37:32.520 and make

00:37:32.920 them less

00:37:33.580 buggy

00:37:34.060 and a

00:37:34.940 little more

00:37:35.340 reliable.

00:37:37.000 So I'm not

00:37:37.620 worried about

00:37:38.160 this particular

00:37:39.720 iteration

00:37:40.340 destroying

00:37:42.160 all of

00:37:42.540 humankind.

00:37:46.020 Here's a

00:37:46.900 story that

00:37:48.340 seems small

00:37:49.080 but it

00:37:50.200 might be

00:37:50.540 big.

00:37:50.840 according to

00:37:53.920 interesting

00:37:54.500 engineering

00:37:55.100 there's a

00:37:57.180 hydro sponge

00:37:58.480 that's been

00:38:00.180 invented

00:38:00.580 and you

00:38:02.240 might say

00:38:02.880 to yourself

00:38:03.260 what's a

00:38:03.840 hydro sponge

00:38:04.660 Scott?

00:38:05.600 Well it's

00:38:06.380 a sponge

00:38:07.940 that's made

00:38:08.660 out of

00:38:09.040 special

00:38:09.540 materials

00:38:10.080 that are

00:38:10.720 apparently

00:38:11.200 not that

00:38:11.880 rare.

00:38:12.480 So no

00:38:12.900 rare earth

00:38:13.420 materials

00:38:13.920 needed.

00:38:14.840 And they

00:38:15.220 can make

00:38:15.560 this sponge

00:38:16.260 and they

00:38:16.680 can just

00:38:17.140 put it

00:38:17.840 outdoors

00:38:18.280 and even

00:38:19.920 if it's

00:38:20.340 kind of

00:38:20.720 dry

00:38:21.160 if it's

00:38:21.840 a dry

00:38:22.240 area

00:38:22.620 no clouds

00:38:23.480 it can

00:38:24.320 absorb

00:38:24.660 moisture

00:38:25.100 and it

00:38:26.380 does it

00:38:26.700 without

00:38:26.960 any

00:38:27.320 electricity.

00:38:28.940 Now the

00:38:29.220 catch

00:38:29.740 this has

00:38:31.200 been invented

00:38:31.740 before

00:38:32.160 but the

00:38:32.900 catch is

00:38:33.420 you would

00:38:33.700 still need

00:38:34.140 electricity

00:38:34.740 to release

00:38:35.660 the water

00:38:36.180 once it

00:38:37.180 gets in

00:38:37.520 the sponge

00:38:38.080 but apparently

00:38:39.320 they've

00:38:39.720 invented

00:38:40.100 one that

00:38:40.860 requires

00:38:42.200 so much

00:38:43.020 less energy

00:38:43.800 to release

00:38:44.480 the water

00:38:45.000 that the

00:38:46.300 sun would

00:38:46.760 do it.

00:38:47.100 so you

00:38:48.380 could just

00:38:48.720 put the

00:38:49.120 sponge

00:38:49.520 outdoors

00:38:50.080 it would

00:38:51.260 suck up

00:38:51.780 water

00:38:52.160 and then

00:38:53.100 the sun

00:38:53.560 would warm

00:38:54.060 it enough

00:38:54.460 to release

00:38:54.960 the water.

00:38:56.420 It's a

00:38:56.800 zero energy

00:38:57.880 or at least

00:38:58.460 man-made

00:38:59.400 energy

00:38:59.800 a zero

00:39:00.840 man-made

00:39:01.440 energy

00:39:01.840 to create

00:39:02.620 fresh water

00:39:03.340 out of air.

00:39:05.320 Now if this

00:39:06.260 thing actually

00:39:06.800 works

00:39:07.360 this is

00:39:09.020 completely

00:39:09.600 transformative

00:39:10.480 I mean

00:39:12.160 it would

00:39:12.460 be one

00:39:12.760 of the

00:39:12.980 biggest

00:39:13.220 technologies

00:39:13.880 in the

00:39:14.380 history

00:39:14.680 of humankind

00:39:15.500 because it

00:39:16.720 would end

00:39:17.160 water

00:39:17.560 shortages

00:39:18.080 wherever you

00:39:19.940 add these

00:39:20.320 sponges.

00:39:22.020 So I

00:39:23.060 just hope

00:39:23.820 they don't

00:39:24.120 put them

00:39:24.400 in the

00:39:24.620 ocean

00:39:24.920 because it

00:39:25.420 will dry

00:39:25.740 up the

00:39:26.000 ocean.

00:39:26.900 No just

00:39:27.500 kidding it

00:39:28.140 won't dry

00:39:28.600 up the

00:39:28.860 ocean.

00:39:31.760 All right

00:39:32.400 those are

00:39:33.320 the big

00:39:33.580 stories of

00:39:34.080 the day.

00:39:34.580 I would

00:39:34.920 like to

00:39:35.240 give you

00:39:35.580 a product

00:39:36.220 review.

00:39:38.800 Did you

00:39:39.340 ever try

00:39:39.700 to buy

00:39:40.100 a blanket

00:39:41.020 you know

00:39:42.400 not for

00:39:42.700 your bad

00:39:43.100 but let's

00:39:43.520 say just

00:39:43.960 a you

00:39:44.680 know

00:39:44.780 nice

00:39:45.020 blanket

00:39:45.560 that's

00:39:45.940 soft

00:39:46.260 and did

00:39:47.600 you notice

00:39:48.020 that some

00:39:48.480 blankets are

00:39:49.240 not the

00:39:49.580 same on

00:39:50.020 both sides

00:39:50.640 like some

00:39:52.360 blankets will

00:39:52.960 have this

00:39:53.380 nice fuzzy

00:39:54.120 comfortable

00:39:54.680 side but

00:39:56.200 then the

00:39:56.540 other side

00:39:56.980 is just

00:39:57.300 kind of

00:39:57.660 weirdly

00:39:58.080 smooth

00:39:58.720 and it's

00:39:59.840 like a

00:40:00.140 half blanket

00:40:00.840 don't ever

00:40:02.960 buy a

00:40:03.220 half blanket

00:40:03.800 it's

00:40:04.640 ridiculous

00:40:05.060 if your

00:40:06.360 blanket

00:40:06.700 doesn't feel

00:40:07.720 soft and

00:40:08.460 fluffy

00:40:08.900 on both

00:40:09.940 sides

00:40:10.380 that's a

00:40:11.640 that's a

00:40:12.140 throwaway

00:40:12.520 blanket

00:40:12.920 you just

00:40:14.220 put that

00:40:14.580 right in

00:40:14.840 the garbage

00:40:15.280 because it's

00:40:16.060 going to

00:40:16.260 make you

00:40:16.580 mad every

00:40:17.200 time you

00:40:17.540 pick it

00:40:17.880 up

00:40:18.120 so

00:40:20.140 that's

00:40:23.000 my

00:40:23.220 recommendation

00:40:23.820 never buy

00:40:24.600 a blanket

00:40:25.020 that is

00:40:25.380 different on

00:40:25.840 one side

00:40:26.320 all right

00:40:28.720 that's all

00:40:31.720 I got for

00:40:32.120 you today

00:40:32.700 and I'm

00:40:36.880 going to

00:40:37.040 talk to

00:40:37.440 the locals

00:40:38.240 people

00:40:38.620 privately

00:40:39.320 and we'll

00:40:40.900 catch up on

00:40:41.660 what's

00:40:41.920 happening in

00:40:42.380 markets

00:40:42.860 it's like

00:40:43.720 the markets

00:40:44.320 are jumping

00:40:45.880 all around

00:40:46.720 because you

00:40:48.540 know most

00:40:48.960 people just

00:40:49.420 don't even

00:40:49.800 understand

00:40:50.460 any of it

00:40:52.000 I've been

00:40:52.960 seeing some

00:40:53.420 of the worst

00:40:54.000 takes on

00:40:55.820 markets

00:40:56.360 especially the

00:40:58.700 the odds of

00:40:59.540 the market

00:40:59.920 coming back

00:41:00.680 I don't

00:41:02.020 think people

00:41:02.500 understand

00:41:02.980 anything about

00:41:03.780 tariffs or

00:41:04.440 markets or

00:41:05.140 anything

00:41:05.520 so you

00:41:07.480 know maybe

00:41:07.880 there are

00:41:08.240 people like

00:41:08.760 Scott

00:41:09.220 Bessent and

00:41:10.060 Peter Navarro

00:41:11.140 who understand

00:41:11.960 enough to

00:41:12.520 know what's

00:41:12.880 going on

00:41:13.460 Jamie Dimon

00:41:14.740 would be

00:41:15.100 another

00:41:15.360 but I

00:41:16.900 see a lot

00:41:17.280 of journalists

00:41:18.020 writing about

00:41:19.280 the end of

00:41:20.500 the United

00:41:20.860 States

00:41:21.420 because the

00:41:22.920 stock market

00:41:23.500 went down

00:41:23.920 for a week

00:41:24.460 doesn't look

00:41:27.260 like that to

00:41:27.820 me

00:41:28.100 to me it

00:41:29.420 looks like

00:41:29.880 it's

00:41:30.140 temporary

00:41:30.520 and

00:41:31.860 the other

00:41:34.460 thing that

00:41:34.980 makes me

00:41:35.740 curious about

00:41:38.180 how things

00:41:38.700 come out

00:41:39.280 is I

00:41:40.540 remember seeing

00:41:41.300 an interview

00:41:41.700 with I

00:41:42.840 think it

00:41:43.040 was Barbara 0.97

00:41:43.600 Cochran

00:41:44.240 she's a

00:41:45.260 real estate

00:41:45.860 investor type

00:41:46.780 who used to

00:41:48.320 work with

00:41:48.800 Trump

00:41:49.220 now when I

00:41:52.620 say work

00:41:53.020 with him

00:41:53.400 I think

00:41:53.860 meaning she

00:41:54.720 was in on

00:41:55.460 some of the

00:41:55.840 same deals

00:41:56.420 and she

00:41:57.760 said that he

00:41:58.480 was the

00:41:58.880 greatest

00:41:59.220 salesman

00:42:00.200 that she

00:42:01.140 had ever

00:42:01.540 witnessed

00:42:01.960 in her

00:42:02.300 life

00:42:02.620 like just

00:42:03.680 crazy good

00:42:04.600 at selling

00:42:05.120 now that

00:42:06.080 was in the

00:42:06.480 context of

00:42:07.100 selling real

00:42:07.680 estate deals

00:42:08.360 and making

00:42:09.080 deals

00:42:09.460 now what

00:42:11.160 you're seeing

00:42:11.880 is Trump

00:42:13.220 selling

00:42:14.560 something that's

00:42:15.740 really hard

00:42:16.300 to sell

00:42:16.820 which is I'm

00:42:18.400 going to make

00:42:18.760 your stocks

00:42:19.300 go down

00:42:19.940 but in the

00:42:21.400 long run

00:42:21.960 with through

00:42:23.180 negotiation

00:42:23.860 it's going to

00:42:24.500 be way way

00:42:25.020 better

00:42:25.320 that's a

00:42:26.620 really tough

00:42:27.460 sell

00:42:27.840 I think

00:42:28.720 it was

00:42:29.080 Mike

00:42:29.800 Cernovich

00:42:30.220 who pointed

00:42:30.680 out that

00:42:32.020 you need

00:42:32.660 a second

00:42:33.360 term president

00:42:34.180 who is not

00:42:35.780 afraid of

00:42:36.280 getting reelected

00:42:37.300 and who just

00:42:38.560 has balls of

00:42:39.340 steel

00:42:39.640 because the

00:42:40.680 things that

00:42:41.200 the United

00:42:41.580 States needs

00:42:42.580 to do

00:42:43.180 are hard

00:42:45.300 and they're

00:42:46.660 going to be

00:42:46.900 a little bit

00:42:47.380 painful

00:42:47.800 and it's

00:42:49.000 very much

00:42:49.460 a dad

00:42:50.200 energy

00:42:50.620 that you're

00:42:52.000 just going to

00:42:52.340 have to do

00:42:52.660 the hard thing

00:42:53.260 to get to

00:42:53.720 the good

00:42:54.020 thing

00:42:54.320 and if

00:42:54.960 you don't

00:42:55.240 do the

00:42:55.500 hard thing

00:42:56.000 you might

00:42:56.520 be out of

00:42:56.860 business

00:42:57.240 so

00:42:58.880 watching

00:42:59.920 Trump

00:43:00.420 sell this

00:43:01.540 is kind

00:43:02.720 of exciting

00:43:03.320 because it's

00:43:04.560 the biggest

00:43:05.420 sale of his

00:43:06.340 life

00:43:06.720 maybe even

00:43:07.680 bigger than

00:43:08.180 getting elected

00:43:08.800 you know

00:43:09.620 you'd think

00:43:10.040 that would

00:43:10.360 be the

00:43:10.600 biggest

00:43:10.900 but this

00:43:12.100 probably has

00:43:12.520 more

00:43:12.740 consequence

00:43:13.600 so it's

00:43:15.500 the biggest

00:43:15.880 sale of

00:43:16.460 all time

00:43:17.020 with the

00:43:18.120 best sales

00:43:18.660 person of

00:43:19.240 all time

00:43:19.720 and it

00:43:21.940 does feel

00:43:22.720 like he's

00:43:23.280 turning the

00:43:23.900 ship

00:43:24.220 and what

00:43:26.800 you look

00:43:27.200 for is

00:43:28.180 he's going

00:43:28.540 to play

00:43:29.500 up any

00:43:30.320 kind of

00:43:31.780 activity

00:43:32.240 that's

00:43:32.780 on his

00:43:33.500 side

00:43:33.840 so every

00:43:34.860 time there's

00:43:35.340 a country

00:43:35.860 that calls

00:43:36.440 and wants

00:43:36.820 to negotiate

00:43:37.460 he's going

00:43:38.080 to tell you

00:43:38.500 things are

00:43:38.960 going great

00:43:39.620 he's going

00:43:40.660 to tell you

00:43:41.020 how good

00:43:41.440 things are

00:43:41.820 going to

00:43:41.980 be when

00:43:42.340 we get

00:43:42.640 it all

00:43:42.860 worked

00:43:43.120 out

00:43:43.400 he's going

00:43:43.820 to tell

00:43:44.080 you how

00:43:44.840 bad these

00:43:45.440 countries

00:43:45.800 have been

00:43:46.140 treating

00:43:46.440 us

00:43:46.780 and he's

00:43:47.920 really good

00:43:48.600 at it

00:43:49.100 he is

00:43:50.640 really good

00:43:51.280 at it

00:43:51.780 so it's

00:43:54.620 sort of

00:43:54.900 him against

00:43:55.400 the world

00:43:56.000 you know

00:43:57.520 it

00:43:57.840 probably

00:43:58.640 maybe

00:44:00.920 98%

00:44:02.600 of the

00:44:03.400 entire

00:44:03.800 planet

00:44:04.340 would have

00:44:04.920 said don't

00:44:05.380 get into

00:44:05.880 a trade

00:44:06.340 war

00:44:06.600 and Trump

00:44:08.720 said I

00:44:09.360 can sell

00:44:09.760 a trade

00:44:10.100 war

00:44:10.340 and now

00:44:12.360 he's selling

00:44:12.860 it

00:44:13.120 now he

00:44:14.080 hasn't sold

00:44:14.600 it to

00:44:14.860 everybody

00:44:15.240 and if

00:44:16.560 if you're

00:44:17.280 depending on

00:44:17.960 your stocks

00:44:18.800 for your

00:44:19.320 retirement

00:44:19.780 etc

00:44:20.200 you're

00:44:21.040 pretty

00:44:21.280 panicked

00:44:21.840 but he

00:44:23.200 never

00:44:23.520 promised

00:44:24.000 you

00:44:24.200 it would

00:44:24.400 be

00:44:24.560 easy

00:44:24.980 he

00:44:26.280 just

00:44:26.540 promised

00:44:26.920 you

00:44:27.200 it was

00:44:27.560 necessary

00:44:28.260 and we

00:44:29.300 could get

00:44:29.640 to a

00:44:29.920 better

00:44:30.100 place

00:44:30.540 I still

00:44:32.180 think that's

00:44:32.940 probably

00:44:33.720 true

00:44:34.100 you know

00:44:35.280 the future

00:44:36.620 is unpredictable

00:44:37.480 but if I

00:44:39.940 had to look

00:44:40.440 at just

00:44:40.940 where we

00:44:41.580 are at

00:44:41.880 the moment

00:44:42.360 and then

00:44:43.440 look at

00:44:43.800 the skills

00:44:44.480 of the

00:44:45.020 people

00:44:45.260 involved

00:44:45.940 the only

00:44:47.240 one that's

00:44:49.240 sort of

00:44:49.900 up in the

00:44:51.180 air I

00:44:51.480 think is

00:44:51.800 China

00:44:52.160 and I'm

00:44:54.040 not so

00:44:54.440 sure that

00:44:55.140 China is 0.85

00:44:56.140 stable

00:44:56.800 or unstable

00:44:58.380 because I'm

00:44:59.300 seeing both

00:45:00.880 you know

00:45:01.780 sometimes people

00:45:02.580 say China

00:45:03.640 is like

00:45:04.280 you know

00:45:05.180 a little

00:45:05.460 island

00:45:05.920 and essentially

00:45:07.120 like an

00:45:07.580 island

00:45:07.820 and that

00:45:08.560 they can

00:45:08.960 just survive

00:45:09.640 longer than

00:45:10.320 we can

00:45:10.740 so they

00:45:11.700 can hold

00:45:12.100 out

00:45:12.480 and you

00:45:13.760 know

00:45:13.920 they have

00:45:14.340 all the

00:45:14.600 advantages

00:45:14.980 but then

00:45:16.060 other people

00:45:16.560 are saying

00:45:16.920 that China 0.93

00:45:17.500 is literally

00:45:18.040 failing

00:45:18.580 and their

00:45:20.120 economy

00:45:20.520 is falling

00:45:20.980 apart

00:45:21.360 who said

00:45:24.240 the other

00:45:24.560 day that

00:45:25.120 China is 0.85

00:45:26.440 a

00:45:26.900 savings

00:45:28.400 based

00:45:29.580 economy

00:45:30.140 and that

00:45:31.740 they do

00:45:32.100 a lot of

00:45:32.460 construction

00:45:32.980 to pretend

00:45:34.140 like they're

00:45:34.780 doing a lot

00:45:36.020 of great

00:45:36.340 stuff

00:45:36.720 but they're

00:45:37.800 building stuff

00:45:38.420 that they

00:45:38.740 don't need

00:45:39.340 and nobody

00:45:40.140 wants

00:45:40.620 one of the

00:45:42.040 examples was

00:45:42.900 they have

00:45:43.420 these really

00:45:43.940 impressive

00:45:44.980 indoor

00:45:45.700 malls

00:45:46.460 but there

00:45:47.800 aren't many

00:45:48.200 people shopping

00:45:49.040 despite

00:45:49.800 you know

00:45:50.400 China having 0.97

00:45:50.980 a lot of

00:45:51.300 people

00:45:51.560 there are

00:45:52.280 not many

00:45:52.600 people shopping

00:45:53.320 because they

00:45:55.460 are more

00:45:56.160 into saving

00:45:56.720 and they

00:45:59.140 just go there

00:45:59.740 because the

00:46:00.320 air is cleaner

00:46:01.060 and they have

00:46:02.080 air conditioning

00:46:02.640 so apparently

00:46:04.200 going to the

00:46:04.860 mall is just

00:46:05.520 someplace you

00:46:06.100 go so you're

00:46:06.680 not outdoors

00:46:07.320 and you're

00:46:08.240 not in your

00:46:08.700 home

00:46:08.940 and you

00:46:11.220 know we've

00:46:11.520 got more

00:46:11.860 of a

00:46:12.100 consumer

00:46:12.500 economy

00:46:13.060 they've

00:46:13.420 got more

00:46:13.720 of a

00:46:14.160 savings

00:46:14.860 economy

00:46:15.380 and we'll

00:46:17.280 we'll see

00:46:18.220 if that gives

00:46:18.920 them some

00:46:19.320 extra

00:46:19.700 superpower

00:46:20.400 to

00:46:20.640 analysis

00:46:21.240 all right

00:46:25.280 all right

00:46:27.700 ladies and 0.98

00:46:28.180 gentlemen

00:46:28.420 that's all I

00:46:29.060 have for

00:46:29.260 today

00:46:29.480 I'm going

00:46:29.820 to talk

00:46:30.100 to the

00:46:30.560 locals

00:46:31.300 people

00:46:31.640 privately

00:46:32.140 thanks for

00:46:33.000 joining

00:46:33.280 on a

00:46:33.740 rumble

00:46:34.040 and YouTube

00:46:34.640 and X

00:46:35.760 and locals

00:46:37.900 coming at

00:46:39.260 you privately

00:46:39.800 right now

00:47:04.640 from

00:47:06.300 to

00:47:06.840 m

00:47:07.860 about

00:47:19.660 across

00:47:19.920 are

00:47:20.600 »

00:47:21.500 at

00:47:21.780 end

00:47:22.340 like

00:47:22.980 I

00:47:23.340 »

00:47:23.560 did

00:47:28.340 »

00:47:29.460 «

00:47:30.480 but

00:47:30.980 I

00:47:31.080 don't

00:47:31.640 »

00:47:32.380 I

00:47:32.480 I

00:47:33.140 I

00:47:34.180 and I

00:47:34.240 can

00:47:34.380 I

00:47:34.640 Thank you.

00:48:04.640 Thank you.

00:48:34.640 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 07, 2025

Episode 2802 CWSA 04⧸07⧸25

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