Episode 2805 CWSA 04⧸10⧸25
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 9 minutes
Words per Minute
142.2222
Summary
On today's episode of the Stock Market Movers and Shakers podcast, the stock market hit a record high yesterday and then went down again today. What happened? Why did the market go down? What caused it to do so much so fast? And what will it take to bring it back?
Transcript
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we'll go with that you ready for that all right first story i already said uh
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they're going to be optimist robots on mars um i already feel sorry for them
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because don't you think the robots are going to be stranded on mars
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and they don't have you know they don't have personalities and stuff but wouldn't you feel
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super bad if you send a robot that could walk and talk and you know act like a like it's ascension
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being and then you just leave it on mars until the mars conditions destroy it i don't know i i
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literally feel bad for the robots so that's happening um so there's a according to the
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post-millennial the support for nuclear power in the united states is at an all-time high 61
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of adults are pro-nuclear power we'll get to all the tariff stuff and the stock market and stuff
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now in 2016 most of you know if you're my regulars uh you know that uh i started trying to persuade the
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country that nuclear power was the only thing that was going to save them and that wasn't the only one
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of course you know mark schneider and michael schellenberger and zion lights and some other
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really smart people but uh i i have the weirdest um experience which is sometimes when i try to change
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things they do change and i never know if i made a difference or if i just got lucky or i'm really good
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at jumping in front of a parade that's already going to happen and this is one of them so but the
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good news is i was on the right side the right side of history in other news trump signed an executive
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order to get rid of the what he calls the dumb obama biden showerhead regulations so now you got
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toilets that'll flush and showers that'll wash your hair and light bulbs that'll make you happy
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um my timing could not be worse literally yesterday uh i was way walked by and said hey the uh
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the the the plumbing for your bathroom because he's been working on the bathroom for a while
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uh just came in so i got all new fixtures for my bathroom that i have to throw away
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they're brand new they're literally not even installed i might just shake can them right away
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because i'm not going to put on any low flow stuff if the executive order says i can have high flow
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and i don't think there's any way to rig them now i think they just you know weld in the uh the low flow
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stuff so i don't know if you know how expensive it is to get new shower parts you know the the the
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hardware that goes in the shower but i think i have to throw them all away because i can't possibly
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use them i would never use the low flow stuff so that was the most expensive thing i've done to
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well according to slay news the trump wayhouse says it will not respond to emails from reporters that
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that include their preferred pronouns and it's funny because i have exactly the same policy if i get a
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email from a reporter who has their preferred pronouns i will not answer uh i will not answer that
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i guess i've got to turn off that alert somebody doesn't know that this is never the time to send me a
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tax message never never all right let's talk about uh trump and the tariff strategies as you
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know the stock market uh zoomed up yesterday today it's going to give back a little no surprise i think
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everybody who uh everybody who noticed that it went up yesterday probably you all thought it's not going to
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stay there it's going to bobble around for a while but uh i'm going to give you my take on what was
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intentional and what wasn't and what was 4d chess and what isn't and it'll be a little different from
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what i think you've heard anywhere else uh the first thing is when you're listening to people talk about
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the stock market uh you want to figure out you know after you know what's true you want to figure out
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who got it right what did i tell you about how quickly the stock market could recover i didn't say
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it would automatically be fast i didn't say it would be slow i told you that it would depend on the reason
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it went down in the first place and that not all reasons are the same so if the stock market had gone
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down because a world war broke broke out well it's probably not going up anytime soon or you ran out
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of oil everywhere in the world well good luck with your stock market it would take years or decades if
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it ever came back but what we had was a uncertainty based decline in the stock market and so i reasoned
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correctly that if you reduce the uncertainty it would just sort of pop back now it's not a done deal
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because there'll be more uncertainty there's going to be ups and downs and the stock market will follow
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the you know the uncertainty up and down but i think i had the best call on the stock market the best call
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was that we had a something that could be easily reversed and as soon as it was stock market went up
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now of course it's going to give back a little bit but uh so that's the first thing um it does feel
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as if even if the stock market is depressed for a little bit that there's nothing permanent about it
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that it's really just responding to trump and his policies and uncertainty and if trump reduces the
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uncertainty when he's ready to do that should be fine that's what i say uh uncertainty is probably the
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simplest thing that a stock market can fix if the uncertainty is in uh intentionally being inserted
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by a president and he can intentionally take it away when he's ready to so that should be the easiest
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fix of all time all right here's what i think trump was doing um i do not believe that there was a master
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plan with every step figured out in advance and that he was just playing the world i don't think it was
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that i think he was doing what he usually does which is he shakes the box he gets everybody agitated
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and then suddenly he's the most important person in the world again i mean being president in the united
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states gets you halfway there uh maybe more than half but he needed people to to take the tariff
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negotiations seriously and to put it at the top of their list of things that they needed to do
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and he did that so what i always tell you about persuasion is step number one of persuasion is
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you have to get attention if you can't get attention it doesn't matter what else you do your persuasion
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is not going to make any difference so trump is the best of all time at getting attention so he shook
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the box like crazy he had all kinds of uncertainty and who knows what he's doing and did he go crazy
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is the world going to just be destroyed hey what happened to my stocks it was just wonderfully
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uncertain now in a situation where everybody is uncertain it's sort of like the uh the land of the
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blind where the one-eyed person in the land of the blind is the king that's sort of what trump is
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because he's the only one who kind of does know what he wants and he does know what he might do and he
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does know how long stuff will last and he does know what a good deal will look like or not look like so
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the fact that he made everybody else uncertain is why they started calling and jumping on planes and
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saying uh can we have a meeting because maybe we should negotiate our trade so the uncertainty is his
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is almost his signature move for persuasion he gets everybody riled up makes whatever he cares about
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their most important topic too he certainly got that done and uh then everybody's trying to deal with
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it and trying to work through their own uncertainty and this is another persuasion trick
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um when people feel uncertain they will gravitate toward anybody who is certain so as long as trump
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remains uh confident that he knows exactly how everything should go people would be drawn to him
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as the solver because they don't know how everything should go they don't know what he's going to say
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they they just don't know how long it will last they don't know how bad it will be
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but trump kind of does and and so this makes him the most important person in the conversation
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for something that's affecting every country in a big way all at the same time so kind of brilliant
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course there's a the in terms of the 90-day pause that part i don't think was planned a long time ago
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um i i do buy the charles gasparini take that uh what was happening is that japan the citizens were
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selling off uh treasuries u.s treasuries which would cause our interest rates to spike and that's no bueno
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so i think uh just uh did i say china japan i meant japan uh i think japan selling our treasuries
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probably was what pushed him into the 90-day pause and you know bill ackman had mentioned it uh joel
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pollock had mentioned it before it happened so people were talking it up that that a 90-day pause makes
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sense and it did make sense because by then 75 countries had already said uh can we send somebody
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over there to negotiate this right away how can we get in the front of the list um and trump did his
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other great persuasion thing where he tries to make the biggest distinction between people who are doing
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what he wants and people who are not so he he said for example several times that uh japan uh did not
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retaliate and that's that's rule number one if you don't retaliate and you say can we work out a deal
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you're our best friend so he made sure that everybody knew that japan had played it correctly
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now at the same time they were selling bonds so you know but that's the government versus individual
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investors i think so japan played it right and in the very i hate to say it but it's a very
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a very japan-like way they didn't cause trouble they they tried to be nice and polite to everybody
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and boy did that work it worked perfectly so so trump is telling everybody they're first in line
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you know they're the first ones in line now of course we also want to get a better deal so
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you know being first in line means first in line for something that's good for us too
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so then if you didn't do those things then you're china so he made this huge distinction between doing
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what is friendly to the united states and doing what's not friendly so that's good persuasion you
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don't want to act like those two things are almost the same you want the biggest possible distinction
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between good behavior and bad behavior he's so good at that and that's that's good persuasion
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um he also created a situation where it would seem that our allies would need trade deals with us
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new ones that are good for us more than we need it now that might not be true but it created uh
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such uncertainty with our allies that they they act like they need the deal more than we do
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because they're they're calling they're they're saying can we talk can we fly in can we can we have a
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a meeting so somehow and this is this is kind of magical persuasion he made his top priority
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not just their important priority too but somehow he turned it into it's even more important for them
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at least they're acting that way so that's good um
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um so he so i guess the uh the play is that he's going to do individual deals with 75 different
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entities but it looks like the individual deals won't be just reciprocal tariffs because he's throwing in
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defense so for example if we're gonna uh do the if the reason that your country is safe
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in terms of security and defense is because the united states has a big navy around you or has the
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potential to put one there then maybe you get uh maybe you should pay a little more on the trade deals
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so he's bringing in more variables i've told you before this is great persuasion um you introduce
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new variables and you bring them in so they're not just negotiating duties and vat taxes and um and
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tariffs he's basically bringing in our security umbrella and saying hey if you want to be part of
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this security umbrella maybe you should be real flexible on trade and it makes sense because you know
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a lot of this a lot of this stuff that we're looking at now is uh historically um something
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that made sense at one point these countries were developing and we thought oh if we develop them into
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good markets we can sell them stuff and we can use them for source of raw materials and everybody wins
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but now that many of these countries are doing fine it makes sense to renegotiate
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so i think trump is right on point with at least what he wants to do
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um the other thing that trump does you know you've heard a lot of people say
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all all of our allied countries are mad at us and they're they're mad at trump and this is surely
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going to lead to destruction i never believed that was true because i think countries are kind of
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transactional if something's good for the other country then they're fine with it if it's bad for
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them they'll have lots of reasons they're not fine with it but basically it's just transactional what's
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good for another country they're gonna like and as soon as he turned from you know i'm gonna give you
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all these massive tariffs to oh if you don't retaliate it looks like we can work out a deal everybody wins
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you get some security we get some better deals and it feels like uh almost like a dating technique
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where he's negging have you ever heard of that where where you say things that are
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insulting uh literally insulting to the people that you want to woo uh so in dating it would be a man
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giving a small insult to a woman and then she would sort of try to defend herself and you know argue
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that you should like her more i'm simplifying but that's basically it but trump does this with our
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allies he negs them so he gives them like little insulting things and then they weirdly they get mad
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and then you think well that's that's all bad why did he insult our friends and then they get mad at
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us that's not good but weirdly it can create this situation where they want to work extra hard to be
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your friend because they're they're sort of inclined to want to be our friends meaning that they want to
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get along with america that's just a good idea and so if he negs them with those little insults and
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jabs and stuff uh it has this this unexpected impact which is what nagging is that once once the uh
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let's say the smoke settles they just try a little harder to be your friend because they don't want to
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get insulted again so there might be some of that going on anyway um part of the the magic that happened
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was uh um china got isolated so by china saying you know you can't tariff us more than we can tariff
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you you know you'll be sorry it kind of made 75 countries look reasonable and like oh hey we got
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75 friends who all want to do the right thing yay our 75 countries doing great and then china looks extra
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evil because he's created this contrast between people who are acting you know responsibly and
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people who are just trying to pick a fight it looks like so that's good now how much of that was planned
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in advance i don't know so my take on trump is this if he creates confusion he knows that he can
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um thrive in that atmosphere he knows that people will want to do whatever it takes to reduce their
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own confusion and uncertainty and that gives them a huge advantage so he's created essentially assets
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out of nothing he created this gigantic uncertainty and fear that just wasn't there before and then
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suddenly 75 countries want to do a deal with you that's pretty good persuasion that's pretty good
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so i think uh there are basically two ways for uh trump to win with china and uh
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it feels like there's no way to lose which is not to say that it wouldn't be expensive and
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you know have some downside but the two ways to win would be number one you uh make tariff deals
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with china that are all fair anybody think that's gonna happen do you think china is gonna deal with
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us they said they would they i think today they said oh we'll we'll talk to you about tariffs i don't
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think so because they also steal our ip and why would we put up with that uh they also you know make it
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really hard to do business over there why would we put up with that they you know are massively spying on
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our our businesses over there why would we put up with that so i don't think we're necessarily going
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to make a trade deal i think it's more likely that we'll create this big um trading block the 75
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countries plus the us plus whoever else joins and that that trading block would be an alternative to
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china now at the moment china still has a you know vice grip on some things that you can't get other
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places but that's not permanent you know there's nothing about the rare earth minerals that says
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they can't be produced by you know canada or australia or somebody who would be perfectly willing to sell
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them to us so i've got a feeling that the long-term plan which is probably necessary for survival is to
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make sure that china is not uh in control of our future and that might require some couple years of
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bad news you know maybe less growth and that sort of thing but we'll see so i think the long-term
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uh trump's got the advantage he's also threatened to end of pharmaceutical tariff exemptions according to
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the bbc um and the reason you would want to put tariffs on pharmaceuticals is that it would help
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get them out of china now i thought pharmaceuticals the story was going to be uh we don't know how to
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make them anymore so china has to do it but it turns out that the us is one of the top pharmaceutical
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manufacturing countries so i guess we do know how to we do know how to do that stuff so we don't need
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to do it in china it was just some kind of economic advantage i guess so if we get the rare earth minerals
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and we get the pharmaceuticals and we get the electronics um we don't need china the those those
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three industries and they're all doable it's just not fast claudia was leaving for her pickleball
00:23:52.080
tournament i've been visualizing my match all week she was so focused on visualizing that she didn't
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see the column behind her car on her backhand side good thing claudia's with intact the insurer with
00:24:03.840
the largest network of auto service centers in the country everything was taken care of under one roof
00:24:08.800
and she was on her way in a rental car in no time i made it to my tournament and lost in the first
00:24:14.160
round but you got there on time intact insurance your auto service ace certain conditions apply
00:24:21.840
um the european union has agreed to buy more american uh gas you know that the liquefied not
00:24:30.880
what would you call it the uh the kind of gas that you don't put in your car
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now to me buying energy is going to be the fastest way for these other countries the allied countries
00:24:45.840
to uh close the trade gap so if there's a country that uh lng thank you the lng gas so if there are
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countries that are selling us more than we're but then we're selling them and they want to close that gap
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quickly because it would help them with the overall tariff negotiations then one way to do it is to buy
00:25:09.840
energy from the united states and commit to it because everybody's going to need a lot more energy
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and energy is really expensive and apparently we have the ability to deliver it you know at least lng
00:25:22.640
um to a lot of places so i think you're going to see a whole bunch of deals i think south korea is
00:25:29.360
already talking about that exact kind of thing um but the eu is already trying to get in there
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and say we'll buy more american gas so here's what i think it looks like it's going to look like the us
00:25:43.840
saying our military is part of your security we need you to buy more of our energy and that will close
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our you know our gap in uh in imports and exports and uh we need fairer trade deals
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and i think there's a real good chance that trump's going to get a lot of that if not all of it
00:26:08.640
according to the uh wall street journal other countries are pondering what to do because trump's
00:26:14.960
u-turn of the wall street journals calls it a u-turn has left governments around the world pondering
00:26:20.960
how to approach the us that has become nearly impossible to predict well let me give some
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advice to the countries that are trying to figure out how to deal with the us that's now impossible to
00:26:34.720
predict make an appointment make a phone call and come in here and offer us a better trade deal
00:26:43.760
that's it it's not complicated there there's one thing that trump wants at the moment he wants better
00:26:52.640
trade deals so if you're not if you're not flying over here you're not trying to get somebody on the
00:26:58.800
phone you're not looking at your own trade deals and saying hmm where where could we make this a little
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more fair you're not doing anything all we want is better trade deals so maybe you should be doing
00:27:13.920
what the eu is doing offering to buy more lng maybe you should be making an appointment getting on the
00:27:21.200
plane like china i'm sorry like japan so it's not too hard wall street journal they they know what to do anyway
00:27:30.240
um the chinese won their currency just at an 18 year low i don't know if that's changed since this
00:27:42.320
morning but their currency has taken it and uh there's reports that the uh the big trump uh tariff on
00:27:51.920
china 125 is uh creating some panic among the amazon sellers in china um so that's not good for china
00:28:04.480
and but here's the thing uh one of the other big problems with china is they keep stealing our
00:28:10.480
intellectual property you probably heard mr wonderful talking about that and it's not a little
00:28:17.040
bit it's massive you've heard me complain about if i if i were to write a new book and put it on amazon
00:28:26.800
tomorrow it would take about 10 minutes before there were five different stolen copies of my book
00:28:35.280
with practically the same you know cover and title that are from i think china so the the massive amount
00:28:44.640
of intellectual property stealing seems like something that has to be fixed but do you think that china
00:28:53.520
would agree to stop doing it and then actually stop doing it i say no there must be something baked into the
00:29:03.600
chinese system where unfortunately a number of them are thieves now they probably don't see it that way
00:29:10.480
they probably just think it's being competitive or something but we really can't deal with china in
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the long run if they're just stealing everything that's our intellectual property so probably our
00:29:22.480
long term is to make sure we have a clean break and let china just do its thing while we do our thing
00:29:29.360
so i don't think you can fix massive theft of your intellectual property that's so so completely
00:29:36.160
universal and so built into the system that it happens every time and it happens fast and it's a lot
00:29:43.760
i don't think you can reverse that so sometimes you just have to say you know we can't be friends
00:29:56.800
so the trump has ordered the department of justice to investigate this author who was anonymous for a
00:30:03.440
while this guy miles taylor uh trump said he thinks he's guilty of treason so this is a guy who wrote a
00:30:10.960
book and uh said that uh the book was called what was it called um it called a warning in 2019 so he said he
00:30:26.080
was a you know a trump insider kind of a staffer and that he had all these terrible secrets and he put
00:30:34.320
them in a book well turns out he wasn't very close to anybody so it looked like there's something sketchy
00:30:43.600
going on there so apparently the uh department of justice is going to look into that guy but at the same
00:30:51.520
time there is a similar order against um chris prebs the former director of cyber security and
00:31:00.160
infrastructure security cisa um and i guess trump uh fired him in 2020 for claiming that that that
00:31:08.080
year's election was the most secure in american history now he's he is the he was sort of a leading
00:31:15.360
face going around saying that the 2020 election was one of the most secure most audited most checked
00:31:23.920
um cleanest election of all um and trump said we're going to find out about this guy too because
00:31:32.160
this guy's a wise guy but here's my question what exactly is his alleged crime you know i was watching
00:31:41.040
some videos of what he was doing back in 2020 and he was doing that thing that the democrats were doing
00:31:48.240
which is pretending that if you audited um or if there were uh let's say legal challenges that didn't
00:31:58.080
work that that was proof positive that the elections were as clean as a whistle now that's not even
00:32:06.240
logical those are just two things that can check a few things that doesn't tell you the whole thing
00:32:12.880
is not is good now i don't know of any specific you know irregularities personally i don't know what
00:32:19.520
to believe about that election i mean it looked suspicious to me but i don't have any proof of that
00:32:26.640
so i don't know exactly what would be the alleged crimes they'd be looking into
00:32:33.360
um i hope this is not entirely based on trump's view that it must have been crooked and that this
00:32:41.760
guy must have known because it must have been crooked i don't know i feel like he might need a
00:32:48.400
little bit more than that to drag somebody into a um sort of a lawfare web i'm not totally comfortable
00:32:57.280
with this one um are you how many of you think that trump has made the case that uh that this
00:33:07.680
individual crabs should be investigated there might be a good reason but i didn't see it um it just looked
00:33:16.960
like a suspicion that if somebody said this was a good election and said it a lot uh and you were
00:33:26.000
positive it wasn't that there must be something there beverly says yes hunt them back
00:33:35.520
you're done playing a nice guy all right well i don't think that's the right answer so i don't think
00:33:43.040
hunt them back is the right solution ever unless there's actual evidence of potential crimes there might
00:33:50.960
be but i don't know that one makes me uncomfortable as you know uh chuck schumer senator schumer is a
00:34:01.200
monster i saw a video i think western lensman was the source of that where uh chuck schumer is in the
00:34:09.920
hallway one of the official hallways and a reporter is trying to get him to comment on the tesla
00:34:16.320
uh violent protests and uh so after asking several times do you have anything to say about the tesla
00:34:25.600
violent protests schumer says quote i can't talk about tesla but elon musk is a disaster for america and
00:34:35.360
america knows it look at wisconsin i can't talk about tesla the question was what do you think about the
00:34:44.960
violent protests he couldn't think of anything to what why can't he talk about tesla it's a very big
00:34:53.760
story now he's a monster the the fact that he was not willing to say you know i i disavowed the
00:35:03.520
violence i hope none of that happens i don't want to see anybody's you know car get keyed because they're
00:35:09.360
made in america there were a million things he could have said but i can't talk about tesla
00:35:17.120
that suggests he's completely on board with violence i don't know how else to see it now you might you
00:35:25.040
might know if you watch this show or you're familiar with what mike benz does which is the
00:35:30.640
the the smart version um you know we're we're in the middle of a violent insurrection right
00:35:38.240
that we are being color revolutioned and that all the same people the people who are experts
00:35:44.160
at doing color revolutions are doing it to america they tried it in the first term of trump
00:35:51.040
before we knew what it meant and before we could recognize it but now we've been trained we know
00:35:56.720
exactly what it looks like it would be massive fake protests check it would be trying to corrupt the
00:36:05.120
judges and the prosecutors and the attorney generals check that's what they've done um there would be
00:36:14.640
control of the media so the media would have a message that this populist who you know somehow has
00:36:21.840
a lot of popular support is really the devil and the media is all agreed on that check so these are
00:36:30.880
all the things that uh are absolutely guaranteed to be part of an insurrection and it's happening right
00:36:39.120
now while we watch but because most of the country doesn't know what i just told you uh it's you just have
00:36:46.160
to be kind of a nerd and really pay attention to a lot of stuff online people let it happen or maybe half of
00:36:54.080
the country wants it to happen so they don't care how legal or ethical or moral it is uh but we're right there
00:37:03.600
now um it also makes me wonder uh how many of our corrupt leaders like like schumer how many of them does
00:37:14.160
doge already have the goods on as in does anybody know how schumer made his money because i've got a
00:37:22.880
feeling that musk might have a list of politicians who just absolutely have a you know a trail of money
00:37:32.960
from you know some government funding or some outside corrupt source right into their pockets
00:37:39.600
and uh schumer would be the top one that i would suspect based on the way he operates
00:37:50.240
bank more encores when you switch to a scotia bank banking package
00:37:54.720
learn more at scotia bank.com slash banking packages conditions apply scotia bank you're richer than you
00:38:01.520
think all right um so it turns out the department of justice is going to go after the money people
00:38:11.600
the organizers behind the tesla domestic violence and i don't think they've ever tried that before
00:38:20.720
i don't think they tried it with antifa or black lives matter but we're smarter now so now we know
00:38:27.040
that these are not organic we know that they're organized and we even know for the most part we
00:38:33.360
know which ngos and which entities and which billionaires are doing it all so um the the thinking
00:38:41.360
is and elon musk seems to think this is going to happen that uh the government or the department
00:38:47.280
of justice will look into who is behind it all and that they might go to jail do you believe that
00:38:54.240
the people who organized it the fake protests and the domestic um extremism or terrorism against the
00:39:03.840
cars and some of the people do you do you think the government's gonna actually put in jail the organizers
00:39:12.080
that would be an amazing thing um i'm not again i'm not sure exactly you know what crime would
00:39:21.760
would be uh the one that would get them but uh that's pretty that's pretty interesting so who whoever
00:39:30.320
is bankrolling the domestic uh terrorism might have some questions to answer and uh attorney general
00:39:39.280
bondi warned that no one not the first soldiers not the financial financiers will escape justice
00:39:45.920
in other news trump's one of trump's executive orders he's getting busy with lots more executive
00:39:54.640
orders um would prohibit the states from using climate change ideology to cripple our various energy
00:40:05.360
projects so this could be a really big deal so the attorney general shall expeditiously take all
00:40:13.440
appropriate action to stop the enforcement of state laws and continuation of civil actions identified and
00:40:20.640
blah blah blah that the attorney general determines to be illegal so i guess states have sued energy
00:40:28.720
companies for supposed climate change harm uh under under nuisance and uh other tort regimes
00:40:36.800
so the idea here is that um the states are completely broken and if you tried to make their energy
00:40:47.040
less expensive the state would find some way not to do it by continuously chasing climate change
00:40:55.040
you know objectives instead so i like this one we'll see if it makes any difference but
00:41:00.880
could make a huge difference imagine if imagine if there were no climate change considerations to any energy
00:41:10.720
decisions made in my state i feel like my price of gas would not be twice what yours is which is what it is
00:41:20.080
it's roughly twice what the red states pay for gas twice and what do i get extra i don't even get security
00:41:29.360
that it will be there tomorrow you know the very the very least you'd expect if you're paying twice as
00:41:35.840
much for gas in your state is that they're guaranteed to have gas i don't even get that i'm not we're not
00:41:43.600
guaranteed anything we're just paying paying more anyway as you know doge has made a number of
00:41:52.880
projections of savings and it turns out that uh this group called the hamilton project came up with a
00:42:01.600
chart that shows that uh 2025 outlays or what we're going to spend on the budget would be flat compared to
00:42:09.920
2024 which would make it look like doge didn't do anything that the budget would just stay the same
00:42:17.200
now uh but fortunately um brand new chief economist julia pollack did a post on x to show the trick that
00:42:26.480
they used and uh the trick that they used is the chart as uh julia pollack explains uh the chart omits
00:42:35.120
prior years and therefore hides the prior trend and let's talk about what's missing so in 2023
00:42:42.160
2023 the federal outlays you know the the budget were were 6.13 trillion the next year
00:42:51.920
they jumped up 10 to 6.75 so that's sort of what the trend was so the trend was never that spending
00:43:00.560
was flat the trend was always that it kept going up no matter what you did and 10 is a lot
00:43:06.320
in one year so as julia points out uh flat from 2024 to 2025 isn't nothing happened and indeed it's huge
00:43:20.320
because it's uh it's the first break from the autopilot uh goes up every year by some 10 or so
00:43:29.200
if if the only thing you could do is keep is keep spending flat in a context in which there's some
00:43:37.920
inflation which we do have and there's some growth which we do have you would get to a much better
00:43:46.640
place than where we are so keeping things flat is a big cut it's a difference between 10 up and you
00:43:56.240
know chipping away at with the just the baseline uh inflation rate so that's good work
00:44:09.440
let's see um our top banker in the country i always call him that jp morgan banker jamie diamond
00:44:19.920
thinks there'll be more uh defaults which is people who can't pay their debts and so they have to
00:44:26.000
default he was on uh fox news talking to maria borderroma and he says i think you're gonna see
00:44:33.040
a slowdown in the economy and he he said expects more defaults we haven't seen him much yet but you'll
00:44:40.960
see more credit problems than people have seen in a long time um maybe that might be what happens but i
00:44:50.160
think a lot depends on what happens with the tariff negotiations you know if uh if trump ends up
00:44:58.160
lowering taxes for at least a lot of people and uh getting our our trade thing better negotiated
00:45:07.520
um and then doge is keeping our expenses from running out of control um things could fairly quickly
00:45:17.440
get back to where you want them to be let's look at inflation so march inflation uh our inflation rate
00:45:25.840
was 2.4 percent uh which is below expectations which were 2.5 and the core cpi um increased 2.8
00:45:38.400
compared to forecasts of three so there is inflation but it doesn't seem to be at killer levels so it's
00:45:48.560
actually weirdly under control did you know that the uh i saw this on the amuse account on x did you know
00:45:57.840
that the chinese communist party um passed a law that requires all chinese students abroad to participate in
00:46:06.080
an intelligence gathering it's actually the law so if you're a chinese student you know as in born in
00:46:14.640
china and you were in school here you would have to be involved in intelligence gathering you'd have to be
00:46:22.480
it's the law for china but uh a senator moody uh one of ours uh says the united states should
00:46:32.560
immediately stop issuing student visas because all the students are spies they might not want to be
00:46:39.280
and they may not have been raised to be spies but if the chinese government says you must be a spy
00:46:46.320
i guess they are so yeah i think we should talk about why are we uh educating them at all speaking of
00:46:56.160
which laura loomer got another scoop i'd never heard this before but apparently uh president xi of china
00:47:05.680
has a daughter who went to harvard and now lives in the united states
00:47:11.200
um and of course that raises a question let's say president xi's daughter went to harvard
00:47:21.280
and now lives in the united states you know what i worry i worry the harvard turned that woman communist
00:47:35.120
all right um speaking of china new york post has an article that says
00:47:41.200
there's a a meta whistleblower so a whistleblower about the company meta you know facebook um
00:47:50.400
and it says that meta actively helped china in the race to develop artificial intelligence
00:47:56.240
as part of its effort to make china like it so it can do more business in china do you believe that
00:48:02.880
do you believe that meta was helping china develop technology to outcompete the united states um particularly
00:48:14.560
in i think ai was one of the categories and that they did it so that they could act get access to the
00:48:21.520
chinese market does that sound real to you um here's more of the story the details are that meta became
00:48:31.600
uh began uh began providing briefings to the chinese communist party as early as 2015
00:48:38.480
oh so meta was giving china briefings about key technologies and whatnot briefings
00:48:49.440
while they were pursuing something called project aldrin uh which was their effort to get more access to
00:48:55.760
the chinese market now here's my dilbert take on that nothing ever came out of a briefing
00:49:07.280
do you do you think the meta gave them a briefing and then the people at the briefing went out and said
00:49:13.200
now i finally know how to make ai and then develop deep seek i don't think so i'm i don't know how much
00:49:21.360
value you can get out of a briefing but it doesn't scream that that meta was giving up the united states
00:49:30.960
for economic advantage it kind of screams that they were trying to play along and be friendly
00:49:39.840
give them some high level information that they probably could have googled
00:49:44.160
and uh tried to get access to the markets so i'm going to say the whistleblower doesn't sound
00:49:53.040
persuasive to me um i'm going to need more than knowing that they gave some briefings
00:50:01.440
uh if if they said our engineers will work with your engineers to transfer our technical knowledge
00:50:09.200
then i would say whoa that's terrible that's pretty bad but it doesn't say that at all it sounds like
00:50:15.280
they weren't even talking to engineers they were talking to the chinese communist party and giving them
00:50:24.000
how much value have you ever gotten out of a briefing
00:50:28.480
not enough to build your own ai model but anyway people have and by the way i could be wrong there might
00:50:35.840
be more to this story but just based on what's reported it doesn't look like much and then i
00:50:43.840
guess the whistleblower said there's a straight line you can draw from these briefings to the recent
00:50:49.360
revelations that china is developing ai models for military use relying on meta's llama model well here's
00:50:57.360
the thing the llama model is open source it's available to everyone so china is not the only one
00:51:06.480
who would use it so do you think because they gave them a briefing they suddenly knew how to use the
00:51:13.920
you know this llama ai well i don't know i i'm not sure the straight line is as straight as the whistleblower
00:51:23.120
wants to tell you when i found out my friend got a great deal on a wool coat from winners i started
00:51:28.960
wondering is every fabulous item i see from winners like that woman over there with the designer jeans
00:51:35.600
are those from winners ooh are those beautiful gold earrings did she pay full price or that leather
00:51:41.520
tote or that cashmere sweater or those knee-high boots that dress that jacket those shoes is anyone
00:51:48.080
paying full price for anything stop wondering start winning winners find fabulous for less anyway here's
00:51:55.840
another doge success story uh based on a initial survey of unemployment insurance there are claims that
00:52:05.840
uh this is from 2020 that uh 24.5 000 people got unemployment even though they were over the age of 115
00:52:16.240
and they got 59 million dollars in benefits and there were 28 000 people allegedly between the ages of one
00:52:25.040
and five years old who also got unemployment um 245 million in benefits blah blah blah now i've been burned
00:52:38.320
before uh assuming that uh assuming that uh the doge anecdotal stuff was true i'm not going to believe
00:52:46.720
this one yet because you know the democrats are going to say um the problem is the date fields are not
00:52:55.200
filled in they're not actually 115 years old the there's just a the date field isn't filled in they're just
00:53:03.680
ordinary people who are have ordinary ages and the database is inaccurate so the important thing is
00:53:12.400
that somebody looked at them and they got they qualified for unemployment insurance um and the date
00:53:19.920
of how old they are might be inaccurate but doesn't really affect anything
00:53:24.960
now what is true do you think it's true that these are literally fake fake uses of uh unemployment
00:53:35.600
insurance maybe it could be but i no longer trust the anecdote on this so i would need to see more than
00:53:47.680
you know this uh the 115 year old getting the benefits because we we keep seeing the same
00:53:54.640
story over and over again that people who are too old to actually be alive or too young to get a benefit
00:54:01.440
that they should be getting or that others get um i don't know i'm just gonna say maybe i'm gonna say
00:54:10.000
maybe on that but again i'm a big fan of doge and i think directionally uh they're completely spot on
00:54:17.600
so if they get a few anecdotes you know that they're over over interpreting not a big deal
00:54:24.560
i saw argentina is doing great they uh they're now the leader in latin america and fiscal discipline
00:54:32.480
under their leader melee now every time i hear a story about argentina it is suspiciously too good
00:54:41.200
as in really did he really take a chainsaw to everything in the government and and then
00:54:49.200
everything worked out and it happened really quickly really so i went to grok and i asked that
00:54:57.360
was there a downside of melee and the answer is yes so the the things that worked out well is that he cut
00:55:07.840
the budget and created a at least at the highest level a functional economy that was not spending
00:55:16.160
more than it was making good that's very impressive but in order to get there what do you have to cut
00:55:23.680
well apparently there are deep cuts in education health care pensions transportation and the poorest
00:55:31.040
people are probably hit the hardest so there is some genuine i don't know if misery is the right word
00:55:41.200
but these are the kind of cuts you could never make in america i mean even doge wouldn't touch this kind of stuff
00:55:51.120
so um i'm going to be a partial skeptic on melee's you know miracle success
00:56:00.000
because if you haven't talked to the the average person there i don't know if you know
00:56:06.560
if things are working swimmingly but certainly having a country that can pay its bills and is not
00:56:14.480
running into debt destruction that's good so by any measure i think melee probably has the right long-term
00:56:23.600
perspective but i'll bet you it's way more expensive than people are telling you in terms of its impact
00:56:31.040
on the poor people in uh in argentina well ukraine's uh president zelensky says uh ukraine wants to buy
00:56:39.760
50 billion dollars in u.s weapons the kind that nobody else makes uh in this case patriot missiles
00:56:47.040
and it'd be the largest u.s weapon sale ever eclipsing japan's big deal for f-35s
00:56:56.160
well um now what's different is he's going to use the european union's money and uh so the u.s would
00:57:05.920
basically just be selling a product we uh we wouldn't be giving it to him we wouldn't be the bankers for it
00:57:14.240
we wouldn't be you know asking for something in advance we'd just be selling it and ukraine would
00:57:21.280
use the money from the european union to pay for it to which i say i don't have much of a problem with
00:57:29.760
that if you can really get the european union to pay for american weapons yeah maybe we should sell
00:57:40.400
them some weapons in according to live science uh ai can now design its own chips which would outperform
00:57:55.040
human designed chips uh but no one understands them so i guess when ai develops a chip the first problem
00:58:03.840
is it might hallucinate and the chip doesn't work at all but when it does work it works better than
00:58:11.200
human-made chips but if a human looks at the chip and tries to figure out why is it this way
00:58:17.520
they can't do it which is kind of fascinating to me um so princeton researchers say the ai design
00:58:26.880
chips they don't use traditional layouts they take a radical approach um that boosts performance beyond
00:58:34.240
human capability now there are a bunch of other things that are happening in ai like the uh there's
00:58:41.920
a there's a way to run llama on a laptop now instead of trying to run it through a whole data center
00:58:49.120
um there are photon based chips that are being developed for ai that would be way more efficient
00:58:55.280
power wise and uh my question is since the big issue with ai is power and ai can design a chip can ai
00:59:07.600
figure out how to use less power for ai if you really pushed it to do that could you say hey ai i want
00:59:17.280
you to develop a chip that will make ai way easier to run could it do it i don't know but we're probably
00:59:26.720
right at the uh the doorway of uh ai being able to figure out the cheaper way to be ai
00:59:37.120
uh there's a whole bunch of uh news also i don't always report all of it but there's a whole bunch of
00:59:42.800
news that goes to the same direction which is ways to make ai use way less energy you know as in all
00:59:51.920
the way down to making it run on a laptop so so i think it's going to be a race between trying to
01:00:01.360
find energy to run these big data centers and not needing energy so maybe somewhere in between is
01:00:09.920
what's going to be real amazon's launching a something called a nova sonic speech to speech ai
01:00:18.640
now all it does is understand human speech like other ais and talk but wow it's good you know i
01:00:27.680
listened to a demonstration and you know how an ai voice is always a little slow and you could tell it's
01:00:33.280
ai and all that this one is just conversational and it speaks fast and it gives you uh just the feeling
01:00:41.520
that's human as heck so apparently it outperforms open ai's voice model which by the way is great
01:00:50.160
you know that the difference between the old pre-ai voice recognition they were terrible
01:00:57.680
i mean just terrible but ever since ai you can really get an app to understand what you're saying
01:01:06.480
even if there's noise in the room or anything else so apparently this is uh rowan rowan chung is uh
01:01:13.600
reporting on this but it's hugely better than anything that's been out there for voice so that's coming
01:01:20.400
uh cash patel is telling us that they got a big win on stopping drugs from cartels they found uh
01:01:28.720
over half a billion dollars in drugs they intercepted uh cash patel calls it one of the most successful
01:01:36.800
counter-narcotics efforts in u.s history we'll see if that makes any difference but it's got to hurt
01:01:44.720
the cartels to lose half a billion dollars in one deal meanwhile over in the house of representatives
01:01:53.120
the republicans have figured out uh how to pass a bill which they passed to stop rogue judges from
01:02:01.680
making decisions that affect places where the judges don't have authority um so another maybe
01:02:09.040
authority is the wrong word but uh you know the problem of judge hunting and the democrats can find
01:02:16.320
a judge anywhere who will stop anything anywhere else in the country and you say to yourself wait a
01:02:23.600
minute why would uh some biased dc judge be able to stop something that's happening not in dc but somewhere
01:02:31.440
else around the country and the answer is well they were getting away with it but now this legislation
01:02:38.240
if it were to pass the senate and i'm thinking it might because the republicans have a majority that
01:02:47.600
they would use the congressional authority to keep judges from passing uh you know from ruling on things
01:02:56.640
that are not in their domain um i'm kind of surprised that this is the way that that gets fixed it seems
01:03:04.480
weird to me that the congress can deal with that what seems like a core issue but if they can
01:03:14.320
it's amazing good luck with that meanwhile according to interesting engineering uh the us now has this
01:03:21.840
powerful microwave weapon that can fry swarms of drones at the same time and boats so if you've got
01:03:30.560
stuff coming out stuff coming at you you know you're a big naval ship or something you see a swarm of drones
01:03:36.960
you can take them all out at the same time with this high-powered microwave uh called leonitis hdo
01:03:45.200
and it can also have engage multiple targets uh it can stop boats so that's pretty impressive
01:03:54.000
uh i think the the boats that get pirated are going to want that
01:04:01.280
we're also working according to newsmax p hegseth is uh coming up with options for a space-based defense
01:04:09.520
shield for the united states so putting something in low earth orbit i guess that can shoot down incoming
01:04:19.040
missiles and and aircraft i would guess um they don't have a decision yet on what that looks like
01:04:26.800
but uh apparently the project to figure out what that looks like and then build it is moving right
01:04:32.000
ahead so we're gonna have a space shield for missiles and if they get through we'll microwave them
01:04:39.600
here's a study that uh i don't know how obvious this one was so side post is reporting there's a study
01:04:49.520
that finds conscientiousness is linked to higher reproductive success worldwide so if you're conscientious
01:04:57.840
which they define as the tendency to be organized responsible self-disciplined and goal-oriented
01:05:04.880
you tend to have more children would you have guessed that or would you have guessed that the people who
01:05:11.200
are least conscientious pump out the most babies and the babies have to take care of themselves basically
01:05:19.680
i don't know i'm a little surprised that conscientiousness is linked to having more babies
01:05:25.680
it just seems to me that the least conscientious people are knocking up their girlfriends and
01:05:31.520
leaving them to fend for themselves but maybe maybe that's the way it is and then in related news
01:05:42.640
um the number of u.s non-parents who never want children is growing so listen listen to this
01:05:49.120
percentage in 2002 14 of non-parents decided said they didn't want any children 14 now that seems
01:06:00.800
manageable doesn't it if only 14 of married people don't want children you'd say to yourself well
01:06:07.520
that still leaves plenty of people that have children so not everybody has to be the same but in 2023 that
01:06:15.280
went to 29 percent 29 of married people don't want kids ever 29 that feels not survivable in the long run
01:06:30.880
does it you know i i think we're gonna end up doing a hungry kind of thing where you you say you won't have
01:06:37.840
to pay taxes if you have several kids uh something's gonna have to give and maybe it's gonna be robots i don't know
01:06:47.760
why would anybody get married if they didn't want kids that's what i would ask the the two times i got married is because
01:06:55.600
kids were already in the mix and everything works better if you're married and you've got step kids or real kids
01:07:08.560
but yeah i i can uh this is scary 29 don't want kids do you think that's mostly financial
01:07:18.080
i feel like it might be but also having having children in the modern era
01:07:24.480
doesn't look anything the same because once you once the kid gets a smartphone it's like you don't have a
01:07:32.720
child you know they're they're just wed to their phone um i saw so i studied the other day
01:07:40.560
that the entire influence of the parents ends at i don't know like seven years old
01:07:48.720
and then after that it's entirely pure influence you know it's smartphones and it's peers and their
01:07:57.440
classmates and in school but after the age of seven parents don't have much to do with how they're
01:08:03.760
raised even no matter how much you try because apparently they're just way more influenced by their
01:08:10.320
peers i'm not saying that's good or bad but it's easy to see why somebody doesn't want to do it
01:08:15.520
it because you get a few years where you think you're doing something important and then it's
01:08:20.640
completely canceled out by just the environment you know with the friends they hang out with and that
01:08:27.600
sort of thing anyway so that's what i got for you today sorry it took two tries to get this working
01:08:35.440
um i'm hoping it will work on x by tomorrow uh we'll get that fixed i hope um and we'll take a look at
01:08:44.560
the uh stock market obviously it's going to give back a little bit today but i wouldn't be too worried
01:08:51.040
about it yet we've got lots of things ahead and uh thanks for joining everybody i'm going to talk to
01:08:57.680
the locals people privately in 30 seconds the rest of you i'll see you tomorrow same time same place