Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2805 CWSA 04⧸10⧸25

00:00:00.000 but uh youtube is

00:00:04.080 we'll go with that you ready for that all right first story i already said uh

00:00:08.640 they're going to be optimist robots on mars um i already feel sorry for them

00:00:14.800 because don't you think the robots are going to be stranded on mars

00:00:20.160 and they don't have you know they don't have personalities and stuff but wouldn't you feel

00:00:26.000 super bad if you send a robot that could walk and talk and you know act like a like it's ascension

00:00:33.280 being and then you just leave it on mars until the mars conditions destroy it i don't know i i

00:00:41.040 literally feel bad for the robots so that's happening um so there's a according to the

00:00:49.200 post-millennial the support for nuclear power in the united states is at an all-time high 61

00:00:57.120 of adults are pro-nuclear power we'll get to all the tariff stuff and the stock market and stuff

00:01:06.000 now in 2016 most of you know if you're my regulars uh you know that uh i started trying to persuade the

00:01:15.840 country that nuclear power was the only thing that was going to save them and that wasn't the only one

00:01:23.920 of course you know mark schneider and michael schellenberger and zion lights and some other

00:01:29.520 really smart people but uh i i have the weirdest um experience which is sometimes when i try to change

00:01:40.080 things they do change and i never know if i made a difference or if i just got lucky or i'm really good

00:01:46.800 at jumping in front of a parade that's already going to happen and this is one of them so but the

00:01:54.080 good news is i was on the right side the right side of history in other news trump signed an executive

00:02:02.800 order to get rid of the what he calls the dumb obama biden showerhead regulations so now you got

00:02:10.160 toilets that'll flush and showers that'll wash your hair and light bulbs that'll make you happy

00:02:15.920 um my timing could not be worse literally yesterday uh i was way walked by and said hey the uh

00:02:28.720 the the the plumbing for your bathroom because he's been working on the bathroom for a while

00:02:34.080 uh just came in so i got all new fixtures for my bathroom that i have to throw away

00:02:40.080 they're brand new they're literally not even installed i might just shake can them right away

00:02:46.560 because i'm not going to put on any low flow stuff if the executive order says i can have high flow

00:02:53.680 and i don't think there's any way to rig them now i think they just you know weld in the uh the low flow

00:03:01.200 stuff so i don't know if you know how expensive it is to get new shower parts you know the the the

00:03:09.440 hardware that goes in the shower but i think i have to throw them all away because i can't possibly

00:03:14.720 use them i would never use the low flow stuff so that was the most expensive thing i've done to

00:03:20.960 upgrade my house literally garbage

00:03:26.000 well according to slay news the trump wayhouse says it will not respond to emails from reporters that

00:03:33.200 that include their preferred pronouns and it's funny because i have exactly the same policy if i get a

00:03:41.520 email from a reporter who has their preferred pronouns i will not answer uh i will not answer that

00:03:52.320 i guess i've got to turn off that alert somebody doesn't know that this is never the time to send me a

00:03:59.520 tax message never never all right let's talk about uh trump and the tariff strategies as you

00:04:09.200 know the stock market uh zoomed up yesterday today it's going to give back a little no surprise i think

00:04:15.760 everybody who uh everybody who noticed that it went up yesterday probably you all thought it's not going to

00:04:23.280 stay there it's going to bobble around for a while but uh i'm going to give you my take on what was

00:04:33.120 intentional and what wasn't and what was 4d chess and what isn't and it'll be a little different from

00:04:39.600 what i think you've heard anywhere else uh the first thing is when you're listening to people talk about

00:04:46.320 the stock market uh you want to figure out you know after you know what's true you want to figure out

00:04:53.440 who got it right what did i tell you about how quickly the stock market could recover i didn't say

00:05:01.600 it would automatically be fast i didn't say it would be slow i told you that it would depend on the reason

00:05:08.720 it went down in the first place and that not all reasons are the same so if the stock market had gone

00:05:15.520 down because a world war broke broke out well it's probably not going up anytime soon or you ran out

00:05:24.080 of oil everywhere in the world well good luck with your stock market it would take years or decades if

00:05:31.840 it ever came back but what we had was a uncertainty based decline in the stock market and so i reasoned

00:05:42.720 correctly that if you reduce the uncertainty it would just sort of pop back now it's not a done deal

00:05:51.280 because there'll be more uncertainty there's going to be ups and downs and the stock market will follow

00:05:55.520 the you know the uncertainty up and down but i think i had the best call on the stock market the best call

00:06:04.640 was that we had a something that could be easily reversed and as soon as it was stock market went up

00:06:13.520 now of course it's going to give back a little bit but uh so that's the first thing um it does feel

00:06:21.040 as if even if the stock market is depressed for a little bit that there's nothing permanent about it

00:06:27.280 that it's really just responding to trump and his policies and uncertainty and if trump reduces the

00:06:34.160 uncertainty when he's ready to do that should be fine that's what i say uh uncertainty is probably the

00:06:42.400 simplest thing that a stock market can fix if the uncertainty is in uh intentionally being inserted

00:06:50.560 by a president and he can intentionally take it away when he's ready to so that should be the easiest

00:06:56.640 fix of all time all right here's what i think trump was doing um i do not believe that there was a master

00:07:06.320 plan with every step figured out in advance and that he was just playing the world i don't think it was

00:07:14.240 that i think he was doing what he usually does which is he shakes the box he gets everybody agitated

00:07:22.640 and then suddenly he's the most important person in the world again i mean being president in the united

00:07:28.080 states gets you halfway there uh maybe more than half but he needed people to to take the tariff

00:07:36.480 negotiations seriously and to put it at the top of their list of things that they needed to do

00:07:43.760 and he did that so what i always tell you about persuasion is step number one of persuasion is

00:07:51.280 you have to get attention if you can't get attention it doesn't matter what else you do your persuasion

00:07:57.680 is not going to make any difference so trump is the best of all time at getting attention so he shook

00:08:05.440 the box like crazy he had all kinds of uncertainty and who knows what he's doing and did he go crazy

00:08:12.480 is the world going to just be destroyed hey what happened to my stocks it was just wonderfully

00:08:21.280 uncertain now in a situation where everybody is uncertain it's sort of like the uh the land of the

00:08:31.040 blind where the one-eyed person in the land of the blind is the king that's sort of what trump is

00:08:38.720 because he's the only one who kind of does know what he wants and he does know what he might do and he

00:08:44.880 does know how long stuff will last and he does know what a good deal will look like or not look like so

00:08:51.760 the fact that he made everybody else uncertain is why they started calling and jumping on planes and

00:09:00.160 saying uh can we have a meeting because maybe we should negotiate our trade so the uncertainty is his

00:09:06.480 is almost his signature move for persuasion he gets everybody riled up makes whatever he cares about

00:09:15.600 their most important topic too he certainly got that done and uh then everybody's trying to deal with

00:09:23.440 it and trying to work through their own uncertainty and this is another persuasion trick

00:09:28.400 um when people feel uncertain they will gravitate toward anybody who is certain so as long as trump

00:09:39.200 remains uh confident that he knows exactly how everything should go people would be drawn to him

00:09:46.560 as the solver because they don't know how everything should go they don't know what he's going to say

00:09:51.840 they they just don't know how long it will last they don't know how bad it will be

00:09:55.200 but trump kind of does and and so this makes him the most important person in the conversation

00:10:03.520 for something that's affecting every country in a big way all at the same time so kind of brilliant

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00:11:13.760 course there's a the in terms of the 90-day pause that part i don't think was planned a long time ago

00:11:24.400 um i i do buy the charles gasparini take that uh what was happening is that japan the citizens were

00:11:33.840 selling off uh treasuries u.s treasuries which would cause our interest rates to spike and that's no bueno

00:11:42.160 so i think uh just uh did i say china japan i meant japan uh i think japan selling our treasuries

00:11:53.200 probably was what pushed him into the 90-day pause and you know bill ackman had mentioned it uh joel

00:12:00.640 pollock had mentioned it before it happened so people were talking it up that that a 90-day pause makes

00:12:07.680 sense and it did make sense because by then 75 countries had already said uh can we send somebody

00:12:16.000 over there to negotiate this right away how can we get in the front of the list um and trump did his

00:12:23.760 other great persuasion thing where he tries to make the biggest distinction between people who are doing

00:12:31.520 what he wants and people who are not so he he said for example several times that uh japan uh did not

00:12:40.960 retaliate and that's that's rule number one if you don't retaliate and you say can we work out a deal

00:12:50.800 you're our best friend so he made sure that everybody knew that japan had played it correctly

00:12:57.760 now at the same time they were selling bonds so you know but that's the government versus individual

00:13:03.440 investors i think so japan played it right and in the very i hate to say it but it's a very

00:13:13.040 a very japan-like way they didn't cause trouble they they tried to be nice and polite to everybody

00:13:21.120 and boy did that work it worked perfectly so so trump is telling everybody they're first in line

00:13:28.080 you know they're the first ones in line now of course we also want to get a better deal so

00:13:33.440 you know being first in line means first in line for something that's good for us too

00:13:38.240 so then if you didn't do those things then you're china so he made this huge distinction between doing

00:13:47.920 what is friendly to the united states and doing what's not friendly so that's good persuasion you

00:13:54.640 don't want to act like those two things are almost the same you want the biggest possible distinction

00:14:00.080 between good behavior and bad behavior he's so good at that and that's that's good persuasion

00:14:06.320 um he also created a situation where it would seem that our allies would need trade deals with us

00:14:13.520 new ones that are good for us more than we need it now that might not be true but it created uh

00:14:22.240 such uncertainty with our allies that they they act like they need the deal more than we do

00:14:29.920 because they're they're calling they're they're saying can we talk can we fly in can we can we have a

00:14:34.880 a meeting so somehow and this is this is kind of magical persuasion he made his top priority

00:14:45.120 not just their important priority too but somehow he turned it into it's even more important for them

00:14:54.400 at least they're acting that way so that's good um

00:14:59.040 um so he so i guess the uh the play is that he's going to do individual deals with 75 different

00:15:10.000 entities but it looks like the individual deals won't be just reciprocal tariffs because he's throwing in

00:15:18.480 defense so for example if we're gonna uh do the if the reason that your country is safe

00:15:26.960 in terms of security and defense is because the united states has a big navy around you or has the

00:15:34.480 potential to put one there then maybe you get uh maybe you should pay a little more on the trade deals

00:15:44.720 so he's bringing in more variables i've told you before this is great persuasion um you introduce

00:15:51.840 new variables and you bring them in so they're not just negotiating duties and vat taxes and um and

00:16:00.560 tariffs he's basically bringing in our security umbrella and saying hey if you want to be part of

00:16:08.160 this security umbrella maybe you should be real flexible on trade and it makes sense because you know

00:16:16.800 a lot of this a lot of this stuff that we're looking at now is uh historically um something

00:16:24.160 that made sense at one point these countries were developing and we thought oh if we develop them into

00:16:29.520 good markets we can sell them stuff and we can use them for source of raw materials and everybody wins

00:16:36.800 but now that many of these countries are doing fine it makes sense to renegotiate

00:16:43.440 so i think trump is right on point with at least what he wants to do

00:16:50.320 um the other thing that trump does you know you've heard a lot of people say

00:16:56.240 all all of our allied countries are mad at us and they're they're mad at trump and this is surely

00:17:02.320 going to lead to destruction i never believed that was true because i think countries are kind of

00:17:09.520 transactional if something's good for the other country then they're fine with it if it's bad for

00:17:15.840 them they'll have lots of reasons they're not fine with it but basically it's just transactional what's

00:17:21.520 good for another country they're gonna like and as soon as he turned from you know i'm gonna give you

00:17:28.480 all these massive tariffs to oh if you don't retaliate it looks like we can work out a deal everybody wins

00:17:37.040 you get some security we get some better deals and it feels like uh almost like a dating technique

00:17:45.520 where he's negging have you ever heard of that where where you say things that are

00:17:51.200 insulting uh literally insulting to the people that you want to woo uh so in dating it would be a man

00:18:00.640 giving a small insult to a woman and then she would sort of try to defend herself and you know argue

00:18:09.280 that you should like her more i'm simplifying but that's basically it but trump does this with our

00:18:15.040 allies he negs them so he gives them like little insulting things and then they weirdly they get mad

00:18:24.560 and then you think well that's that's all bad why did he insult our friends and then they get mad at

00:18:30.160 us that's not good but weirdly it can create this situation where they want to work extra hard to be

00:18:36.400 your friend because they're they're sort of inclined to want to be our friends meaning that they want to

00:18:44.640 get along with america that's just a good idea and so if he negs them with those little insults and 1.00

00:18:51.200 jabs and stuff uh it has this this unexpected impact which is what nagging is that once once the uh

00:19:01.360 let's say the smoke settles they just try a little harder to be your friend because they don't want to

00:19:07.360 get insulted again so there might be some of that going on anyway um part of the the magic that happened

00:19:18.400 was uh um china got isolated so by china saying you know you can't tariff us more than we can tariff

00:19:28.720 you you know you'll be sorry it kind of made 75 countries look reasonable and like oh hey we got

00:19:37.360 75 friends who all want to do the right thing yay our 75 countries doing great and then china looks extra 0.84

00:19:46.640 evil because he's created this contrast between people who are acting you know responsibly and

00:19:53.680 people who are just trying to pick a fight it looks like so that's good now how much of that was planned

00:20:00.720 in advance i don't know so my take on trump is this if he creates confusion he knows that he can

00:20:09.520 um thrive in that atmosphere he knows that people will want to do whatever it takes to reduce their

00:20:17.920 own confusion and uncertainty and that gives them a huge advantage so he's created essentially assets

00:20:25.840 out of nothing he created this gigantic uncertainty and fear that just wasn't there before and then

00:20:32.560 suddenly 75 countries want to do a deal with you that's pretty good persuasion that's pretty good

00:20:41.200 anyway um

00:20:45.760 so i think uh there are basically two ways for uh trump to win with china and uh

00:20:54.960 it feels like there's no way to lose which is not to say that it wouldn't be expensive and

00:21:00.480 you know have some downside but the two ways to win would be number one you uh make tariff deals

00:21:09.520 with china that are all fair anybody think that's gonna happen do you think china is gonna deal with 0.95

00:21:17.040 us they said they would they i think today they said oh we'll we'll talk to you about tariffs i don't

00:21:23.360 think so because they also steal our ip and why would we put up with that uh they also you know make it

00:21:32.880 really hard to do business over there why would we put up with that they you know are massively spying on

00:21:40.400 our our businesses over there why would we put up with that so i don't think we're necessarily going

00:21:47.040 to make a trade deal i think it's more likely that we'll create this big um trading block the 75

00:21:56.800 countries plus the us plus whoever else joins and that that trading block would be an alternative to

00:22:05.280 china now at the moment china still has a you know vice grip on some things that you can't get other 0.96

00:22:12.160 places but that's not permanent you know there's nothing about the rare earth minerals that says

00:22:20.400 they can't be produced by you know canada or australia or somebody who would be perfectly willing to sell

00:22:27.840 them to us so i've got a feeling that the long-term plan which is probably necessary for survival is to

00:22:35.360 make sure that china is not uh in control of our future and that might require some couple years of 1.00

00:22:45.120 bad news you know maybe less growth and that sort of thing but we'll see so i think the long-term

00:22:51.760 uh trump's got the advantage he's also threatened to end of pharmaceutical tariff exemptions according to

00:22:58.640 the bbc um and the reason you would want to put tariffs on pharmaceuticals is that it would help

00:23:07.440 get them out of china now i thought pharmaceuticals the story was going to be uh we don't know how to

00:23:14.960 make them anymore so china has to do it but it turns out that the us is one of the top pharmaceutical

00:23:22.320 manufacturing countries so i guess we do know how to we do know how to do that stuff so we don't need

00:23:29.600 to do it in china it was just some kind of economic advantage i guess so if we get the rare earth minerals

00:23:36.800 and we get the pharmaceuticals and we get the electronics um we don't need china the those those 0.99

00:23:45.920 three industries and they're all doable it's just not fast claudia was leaving for her pickleball

00:23:52.080 tournament i've been visualizing my match all week she was so focused on visualizing that she didn't 0.95

00:23:57.520 see the column behind her car on her backhand side good thing claudia's with intact the insurer with 1.00

00:24:03.840 the largest network of auto service centers in the country everything was taken care of under one roof

00:24:08.800 and she was on her way in a rental car in no time i made it to my tournament and lost in the first 1.00

00:24:14.160 round but you got there on time intact insurance your auto service ace certain conditions apply

00:24:21.840 um the european union has agreed to buy more american uh gas you know that the liquefied not

00:24:30.880 what would you call it the uh the kind of gas that you don't put in your car

00:24:35.680 now to me buying energy is going to be the fastest way for these other countries the allied countries

00:24:45.840 to uh close the trade gap so if there's a country that uh lng thank you the lng gas so if there are

00:24:56.400 countries that are selling us more than we're but then we're selling them and they want to close that gap

00:25:03.680 quickly because it would help them with the overall tariff negotiations then one way to do it is to buy

00:25:09.840 energy from the united states and commit to it because everybody's going to need a lot more energy

00:25:15.920 and energy is really expensive and apparently we have the ability to deliver it you know at least lng

00:25:22.640 um to a lot of places so i think you're going to see a whole bunch of deals i think south korea is

00:25:29.360 already talking about that exact kind of thing um but the eu is already trying to get in there

00:25:36.320 and say we'll buy more american gas so here's what i think it looks like it's going to look like the us

00:25:43.840 saying our military is part of your security we need you to buy more of our energy and that will close

00:25:53.200 our you know our gap in uh in imports and exports and uh we need fairer trade deals

00:26:01.360 and i think there's a real good chance that trump's going to get a lot of that if not all of it

00:26:08.640 according to the uh wall street journal other countries are pondering what to do because trump's

00:26:14.960 u-turn of the wall street journals calls it a u-turn has left governments around the world pondering

00:26:20.960 how to approach the us that has become nearly impossible to predict well let me give some

00:26:27.680 advice to the countries that are trying to figure out how to deal with the us that's now impossible to

00:26:34.720 predict make an appointment make a phone call and come in here and offer us a better trade deal

00:26:43.760 that's it it's not complicated there there's one thing that trump wants at the moment he wants better

00:26:52.640 trade deals so if you're not if you're not flying over here you're not trying to get somebody on the

00:26:58.800 phone you're not looking at your own trade deals and saying hmm where where could we make this a little

00:27:05.280 more fair you're not doing anything all we want is better trade deals so maybe you should be doing

00:27:13.920 what the eu is doing offering to buy more lng maybe you should be making an appointment getting on the

00:27:21.200 plane like china i'm sorry like japan so it's not too hard wall street journal they they know what to do anyway

00:27:30.240 um the chinese won their currency just at an 18 year low i don't know if that's changed since this

00:27:42.320 morning but their currency has taken it and uh there's reports that the uh the big trump uh tariff on

00:27:51.920 china 125 is uh creating some panic among the amazon sellers in china um so that's not good for china

00:28:04.480 and but here's the thing uh one of the other big problems with china is they keep stealing our 0.99

00:28:10.480 intellectual property you probably heard mr wonderful talking about that and it's not a little

00:28:17.040 bit it's massive you've heard me complain about if i if i were to write a new book and put it on amazon

00:28:26.800 tomorrow it would take about 10 minutes before there were five different stolen copies of my book

00:28:35.280 with practically the same you know cover and title that are from i think china so the the massive amount

00:28:44.640 of intellectual property stealing seems like something that has to be fixed but do you think that china 1.00

00:28:53.520 would agree to stop doing it and then actually stop doing it i say no there must be something baked into the

00:29:03.600 chinese system where unfortunately a number of them are thieves now they probably don't see it that way 0.85

00:29:10.480 they probably just think it's being competitive or something but we really can't deal with china in 1.00

00:29:16.160 the long run if they're just stealing everything that's our intellectual property so probably our

00:29:22.480 long term is to make sure we have a clean break and let china just do its thing while we do our thing

00:29:29.360 so i don't think you can fix massive theft of your intellectual property that's so so completely

00:29:36.160 universal and so built into the system that it happens every time and it happens fast and it's a lot

00:29:43.760 i don't think you can reverse that so sometimes you just have to say you know we can't be friends

00:29:51.440 that's what i think

00:29:54.960 um

00:29:56.800 so the trump has ordered the department of justice to investigate this author who was anonymous for a

00:30:03.440 while this guy miles taylor uh trump said he thinks he's guilty of treason so this is a guy who wrote a

00:30:10.960 book and uh said that uh the book was called what was it called um it called a warning in 2019 so he said he

00:30:26.080 was a you know a trump insider kind of a staffer and that he had all these terrible secrets and he put

00:30:34.320 them in a book well turns out he wasn't very close to anybody so it looked like there's something sketchy

00:30:43.600 going on there so apparently the uh department of justice is going to look into that guy but at the same

00:30:51.520 time there is a similar order against um chris prebs the former director of cyber security and

00:31:00.160 infrastructure security cisa um and i guess trump uh fired him in 2020 for claiming that that that

00:31:08.080 year's election was the most secure in american history now he's he is the he was sort of a leading

00:31:15.360 face going around saying that the 2020 election was one of the most secure most audited most checked

00:31:23.920 um cleanest election of all um and trump said we're going to find out about this guy too because

00:31:32.160 this guy's a wise guy but here's my question what exactly is his alleged crime you know i was watching

00:31:41.040 some videos of what he was doing back in 2020 and he was doing that thing that the democrats were doing

00:31:48.240 which is pretending that if you audited um or if there were uh let's say legal challenges that didn't

00:31:58.080 work that that was proof positive that the elections were as clean as a whistle now that's not even

00:32:06.240 logical those are just two things that can check a few things that doesn't tell you the whole thing

00:32:12.880 is not is good now i don't know of any specific you know irregularities personally i don't know what

00:32:19.520 to believe about that election i mean it looked suspicious to me but i don't have any proof of that

00:32:26.640 so i don't know exactly what would be the alleged crimes they'd be looking into

00:32:33.360 um i hope this is not entirely based on trump's view that it must have been crooked and that this

00:32:41.760 guy must have known because it must have been crooked i don't know i feel like he might need a

00:32:48.400 little bit more than that to drag somebody into a um sort of a lawfare web i'm not totally comfortable

00:32:57.280 with this one um are you how many of you think that trump has made the case that uh that this

00:33:07.680 individual crabs should be investigated there might be a good reason but i didn't see it um it just looked

00:33:16.960 like a suspicion that if somebody said this was a good election and said it a lot uh and you were

00:33:26.000 positive it wasn't that there must be something there beverly says yes hunt them back

00:33:35.520 you're done playing a nice guy all right well i don't think that's the right answer so i don't think

00:33:43.040 hunt them back is the right solution ever unless there's actual evidence of potential crimes there might

00:33:50.960 be but i don't know that one makes me uncomfortable as you know uh chuck schumer senator schumer is a

00:34:01.200 monster i saw a video i think western lensman was the source of that where uh chuck schumer is in the

00:34:09.920 hallway one of the official hallways and a reporter is trying to get him to comment on the tesla

00:34:16.320 uh violent protests and uh so after asking several times do you have anything to say about the tesla

00:34:25.600 violent protests schumer says quote i can't talk about tesla but elon musk is a disaster for america and

00:34:35.360 america knows it look at wisconsin i can't talk about tesla the question was what do you think about the

00:34:44.960 violent protests he couldn't think of anything to what why can't he talk about tesla it's a very big

00:34:53.760 story now he's a monster the the fact that he was not willing to say you know i i disavowed the 0.52

00:35:03.520 violence i hope none of that happens i don't want to see anybody's you know car get keyed because they're

00:35:09.360 made in america there were a million things he could have said but i can't talk about tesla

00:35:17.120 that suggests he's completely on board with violence i don't know how else to see it now you might you

00:35:25.040 might know if you watch this show or you're familiar with what mike benz does which is the

00:35:30.640 the the smart version um you know we're we're in the middle of a violent insurrection right

00:35:38.240 that we are being color revolutioned and that all the same people the people who are experts

00:35:44.160 at doing color revolutions are doing it to america they tried it in the first term of trump

00:35:51.040 before we knew what it meant and before we could recognize it but now we've been trained we know

00:35:56.720 exactly what it looks like it would be massive fake protests check it would be trying to corrupt the 0.99

00:36:05.120 judges and the prosecutors and the attorney generals check that's what they've done um there would be

00:36:14.640 control of the media so the media would have a message that this populist who you know somehow has

00:36:21.840 a lot of popular support is really the devil and the media is all agreed on that check so these are

00:36:30.880 all the things that uh are absolutely guaranteed to be part of an insurrection and it's happening right

00:36:39.120 now while we watch but because most of the country doesn't know what i just told you uh it's you just have

00:36:46.160 to be kind of a nerd and really pay attention to a lot of stuff online people let it happen or maybe half of

00:36:54.080 the country wants it to happen so they don't care how legal or ethical or moral it is uh but we're right there

00:37:03.600 now um it also makes me wonder uh how many of our corrupt leaders like like schumer how many of them does

00:37:14.160 doge already have the goods on as in does anybody know how schumer made his money because i've got a

00:37:22.880 feeling that musk might have a list of politicians who just absolutely have a you know a trail of money

00:37:32.960 from you know some government funding or some outside corrupt source right into their pockets

00:37:39.600 and uh schumer would be the top one that i would suspect based on the way he operates

00:37:50.240 bank more encores when you switch to a scotia bank banking package

00:37:54.720 learn more at scotia bank.com slash banking packages conditions apply scotia bank you're richer than you

00:38:01.520 think all right um so it turns out the department of justice is going to go after the money people

00:38:11.600 the organizers behind the tesla domestic violence and i don't think they've ever tried that before

00:38:20.720 i don't think they tried it with antifa or black lives matter but we're smarter now so now we know 0.91

00:38:27.040 that these are not organic we know that they're organized and we even know for the most part we

00:38:33.360 know which ngos and which entities and which billionaires are doing it all so um the the thinking

00:38:41.360 is and elon musk seems to think this is going to happen that uh the government or the department

00:38:47.280 of justice will look into who is behind it all and that they might go to jail do you believe that

00:38:54.240 the people who organized it the fake protests and the domestic um extremism or terrorism against the

00:39:03.840 cars and some of the people do you do you think the government's gonna actually put in jail the organizers

00:39:12.080 that would be an amazing thing um i'm not again i'm not sure exactly you know what crime would

00:39:21.760 would be uh the one that would get them but uh that's pretty that's pretty interesting so who whoever

00:39:30.320 is bankrolling the domestic uh terrorism might have some questions to answer and uh attorney general

00:39:39.280 bondi warned that no one not the first soldiers not the financial financiers will escape justice

00:39:45.920 in other news trump's one of trump's executive orders he's getting busy with lots more executive

00:39:54.640 orders um would prohibit the states from using climate change ideology to cripple our various energy

00:40:05.360 projects so this could be a really big deal so the attorney general shall expeditiously take all

00:40:13.440 appropriate action to stop the enforcement of state laws and continuation of civil actions identified and

00:40:20.640 blah blah blah that the attorney general determines to be illegal so i guess states have sued energy

00:40:28.720 companies for supposed climate change harm uh under under nuisance and uh other tort regimes

00:40:36.800 so the idea here is that um the states are completely broken and if you tried to make their energy

00:40:47.040 less expensive the state would find some way not to do it by continuously chasing climate change

00:40:55.040 you know objectives instead so i like this one we'll see if it makes any difference but

00:41:00.880 could make a huge difference imagine if imagine if there were no climate change considerations to any energy

00:41:10.720 decisions made in my state i feel like my price of gas would not be twice what yours is which is what it is

00:41:20.080 it's roughly twice what the red states pay for gas twice and what do i get extra i don't even get security

00:41:29.360 that it will be there tomorrow you know the very the very least you'd expect if you're paying twice as

00:41:35.840 much for gas in your state is that they're guaranteed to have gas i don't even get that i'm not we're not

00:41:43.600 guaranteed anything we're just paying paying more anyway as you know doge has made a number of

00:41:52.880 projections of savings and it turns out that uh this group called the hamilton project came up with a

00:42:01.600 chart that shows that uh 2025 outlays or what we're going to spend on the budget would be flat compared to

00:42:09.920 2024 which would make it look like doge didn't do anything that the budget would just stay the same

00:42:17.200 now uh but fortunately um brand new chief economist julia pollack did a post on x to show the trick that

00:42:26.480 they used and uh the trick that they used is the chart as uh julia pollack explains uh the chart omits

00:42:35.120 prior years and therefore hides the prior trend and let's talk about what's missing so in 2023

00:42:42.160 2023 the federal outlays you know the the budget were were 6.13 trillion the next year

00:42:51.920 they jumped up 10 to 6.75 so that's sort of what the trend was so the trend was never that spending

00:43:00.560 was flat the trend was always that it kept going up no matter what you did and 10 is a lot

00:43:06.320 in one year so as julia points out uh flat from 2024 to 2025 isn't nothing happened and indeed it's huge

00:43:20.320 because it's uh it's the first break from the autopilot uh goes up every year by some 10 or so

00:43:29.200 if if the only thing you could do is keep is keep spending flat in a context in which there's some

00:43:37.920 inflation which we do have and there's some growth which we do have you would get to a much better

00:43:46.640 place than where we are so keeping things flat is a big cut it's a difference between 10 up and you

00:43:56.240 know chipping away at with the just the baseline uh inflation rate so that's good work

00:44:09.440 let's see um our top banker in the country i always call him that jp morgan banker jamie diamond

00:44:19.920 thinks there'll be more uh defaults which is people who can't pay their debts and so they have to

00:44:26.000 default he was on uh fox news talking to maria borderroma and he says i think you're gonna see

00:44:33.040 a slowdown in the economy and he he said expects more defaults we haven't seen him much yet but you'll

00:44:40.960 see more credit problems than people have seen in a long time um maybe that might be what happens but i

00:44:50.160 think a lot depends on what happens with the tariff negotiations you know if uh if trump ends up

00:44:58.160 lowering taxes for at least a lot of people and uh getting our our trade thing better negotiated

00:45:07.520 um and then doge is keeping our expenses from running out of control um things could fairly quickly

00:45:17.440 get back to where you want them to be let's look at inflation so march inflation uh our inflation rate

00:45:25.840 was 2.4 percent uh which is below expectations which were 2.5 and the core cpi um increased 2.8

00:45:38.400 compared to forecasts of three so there is inflation but it doesn't seem to be at killer levels so it's

00:45:48.560 actually weirdly under control did you know that the uh i saw this on the amuse account on x did you know

00:45:57.840 that the chinese communist party um passed a law that requires all chinese students abroad to participate in

00:46:06.080 an intelligence gathering it's actually the law so if you're a chinese student you know as in born in

00:46:14.640 china and you were in school here you would have to be involved in intelligence gathering you'd have to be

00:46:22.480 it's the law for china but uh a senator moody uh one of ours uh says the united states should

00:46:32.560 immediately stop issuing student visas because all the students are spies they might not want to be

00:46:39.280 and they may not have been raised to be spies but if the chinese government says you must be a spy

00:46:46.320 i guess they are so yeah i think we should talk about why are we uh educating them at all speaking of

00:46:56.160 which laura loomer got another scoop i'd never heard this before but apparently uh president xi of china

00:47:05.680 has a daughter who went to harvard and now lives in the united states

00:47:11.200 um and of course that raises a question let's say president xi's daughter went to harvard

00:47:21.280 and now lives in the united states you know what i worry i worry the harvard turned that woman communist 1.00

00:47:32.320 no

00:47:35.120 all right um speaking of china new york post has an article that says

00:47:41.200 there's a a meta whistleblower so a whistleblower about the company meta you know facebook um

00:47:50.400 and it says that meta actively helped china in the race to develop artificial intelligence

00:47:56.240 as part of its effort to make china like it so it can do more business in china do you believe that

00:48:02.880 do you believe that meta was helping china develop technology to outcompete the united states um particularly

00:48:14.560 in i think ai was one of the categories and that they did it so that they could act get access to the

00:48:21.520 chinese market does that sound real to you um here's more of the story the details are that meta became

00:48:31.600 uh began uh began providing briefings to the chinese communist party as early as 2015

00:48:38.480 oh so meta was giving china briefings about key technologies and whatnot briefings

00:48:49.440 while they were pursuing something called project aldrin uh which was their effort to get more access to

00:48:55.760 the chinese market now here's my dilbert take on that nothing ever came out of a briefing

00:49:07.280 do you do you think the meta gave them a briefing and then the people at the briefing went out and said

00:49:13.200 now i finally know how to make ai and then develop deep seek i don't think so i'm i don't know how much

00:49:21.360 value you can get out of a briefing but it doesn't scream that that meta was giving up the united states

00:49:30.960 for economic advantage it kind of screams that they were trying to play along and be friendly

00:49:39.840 give them some high level information that they probably could have googled

00:49:44.160 and uh tried to get access to the markets so i'm going to say the whistleblower doesn't sound

00:49:53.040 persuasive to me um i'm going to need more than knowing that they gave some briefings

00:50:01.440 uh if if they said our engineers will work with your engineers to transfer our technical knowledge

00:50:09.200 then i would say whoa that's terrible that's pretty bad but it doesn't say that at all it sounds like

00:50:15.280 they weren't even talking to engineers they were talking to the chinese communist party and giving them

00:50:20.880 briefings

00:50:24.000 how much value have you ever gotten out of a briefing

00:50:28.480 not enough to build your own ai model but anyway people have and by the way i could be wrong there might

00:50:35.840 be more to this story but just based on what's reported it doesn't look like much and then i

00:50:43.840 guess the whistleblower said there's a straight line you can draw from these briefings to the recent

00:50:49.360 revelations that china is developing ai models for military use relying on meta's llama model well here's

00:50:57.360 the thing the llama model is open source it's available to everyone so china is not the only one

00:51:06.480 who would use it so do you think because they gave them a briefing they suddenly knew how to use the

00:51:13.920 you know this llama ai well i don't know i i'm not sure the straight line is as straight as the whistleblower

00:51:23.120 wants to tell you when i found out my friend got a great deal on a wool coat from winners i started

00:51:28.960 wondering is every fabulous item i see from winners like that woman over there with the designer jeans 1.00

00:51:35.600 are those from winners ooh are those beautiful gold earrings did she pay full price or that leather 0.69

00:51:41.520 tote or that cashmere sweater or those knee-high boots that dress that jacket those shoes is anyone

00:51:48.080 paying full price for anything stop wondering start winning winners find fabulous for less anyway here's

00:51:55.840 another doge success story uh based on a initial survey of unemployment insurance there are claims that

00:52:05.840 uh this is from 2020 that uh 24.5 000 people got unemployment even though they were over the age of 115

00:52:16.240 and they got 59 million dollars in benefits and there were 28 000 people allegedly between the ages of one

00:52:25.040 and five years old who also got unemployment um 245 million in benefits blah blah blah now i've been burned

00:52:38.320 before uh assuming that uh assuming that uh the doge anecdotal stuff was true i'm not going to believe

00:52:46.720 this one yet because you know the democrats are going to say um the problem is the date fields are not

00:52:55.200 filled in they're not actually 115 years old the there's just a the date field isn't filled in they're just

00:53:03.680 ordinary people who are have ordinary ages and the database is inaccurate so the important thing is

00:53:12.400 that somebody looked at them and they got they qualified for unemployment insurance um and the date

00:53:19.920 of how old they are might be inaccurate but doesn't really affect anything

00:53:24.960 now what is true do you think it's true that these are literally fake fake uses of uh unemployment

00:53:35.600 insurance maybe it could be but i no longer trust the anecdote on this so i would need to see more than

00:53:47.680 you know this uh the 115 year old getting the benefits because we we keep seeing the same

00:53:54.640 story over and over again that people who are too old to actually be alive or too young to get a benefit

00:54:01.440 that they should be getting or that others get um i don't know i'm just gonna say maybe i'm gonna say

00:54:10.000 maybe on that but again i'm a big fan of doge and i think directionally uh they're completely spot on

00:54:17.600 so if they get a few anecdotes you know that they're over over interpreting not a big deal

00:54:24.560 i saw argentina is doing great they uh they're now the leader in latin america and fiscal discipline

00:54:32.480 under their leader melee now every time i hear a story about argentina it is suspiciously too good

00:54:41.200 as in really did he really take a chainsaw to everything in the government and and then

00:54:49.200 everything worked out and it happened really quickly really so i went to grok and i asked that

00:54:57.360 was there a downside of melee and the answer is yes so the the things that worked out well is that he cut

00:55:07.840 the budget and created a at least at the highest level a functional economy that was not spending

00:55:16.160 more than it was making good that's very impressive but in order to get there what do you have to cut

00:55:23.680 well apparently there are deep cuts in education health care pensions transportation and the poorest

00:55:31.040 people are probably hit the hardest so there is some genuine i don't know if misery is the right word

00:55:41.200 but these are the kind of cuts you could never make in america i mean even doge wouldn't touch this kind of stuff

00:55:51.120 so um i'm going to be a partial skeptic on melee's you know miracle success

00:56:00.000 because if you haven't talked to the the average person there i don't know if you know

00:56:06.560 if things are working swimmingly but certainly having a country that can pay its bills and is not

00:56:14.480 running into debt destruction that's good so by any measure i think melee probably has the right long-term

00:56:23.600 perspective but i'll bet you it's way more expensive than people are telling you in terms of its impact

00:56:31.040 on the poor people in uh in argentina well ukraine's uh president zelensky says uh ukraine wants to buy

00:56:39.760 50 billion dollars in u.s weapons the kind that nobody else makes uh in this case patriot missiles

00:56:47.040 and it'd be the largest u.s weapon sale ever eclipsing japan's big deal for f-35s

00:56:56.160 well um now what's different is he's going to use the european union's money and uh so the u.s would

00:57:05.920 basically just be selling a product we uh we wouldn't be giving it to him we wouldn't be the bankers for it

00:57:14.240 we wouldn't be you know asking for something in advance we'd just be selling it and ukraine would

00:57:21.280 use the money from the european union to pay for it to which i say i don't have much of a problem with

00:57:29.760 that if you can really get the european union to pay for american weapons yeah maybe we should sell

00:57:40.400 them some weapons in according to live science uh ai can now design its own chips which would outperform

00:57:55.040 human designed chips uh but no one understands them so i guess when ai develops a chip the first problem

00:58:03.840 is it might hallucinate and the chip doesn't work at all but when it does work it works better than

00:58:11.200 human-made chips but if a human looks at the chip and tries to figure out why is it this way

00:58:17.520 they can't do it which is kind of fascinating to me um so princeton researchers say the ai design

00:58:26.880 chips they don't use traditional layouts they take a radical approach um that boosts performance beyond

00:58:34.240 human capability now there are a bunch of other things that are happening in ai like the uh there's

00:58:41.920 a there's a way to run llama on a laptop now instead of trying to run it through a whole data center

00:58:49.120 um there are photon based chips that are being developed for ai that would be way more efficient

00:58:55.280 power wise and uh my question is since the big issue with ai is power and ai can design a chip can ai

00:59:07.600 figure out how to use less power for ai if you really pushed it to do that could you say hey ai i want

00:59:17.280 you to develop a chip that will make ai way easier to run could it do it i don't know but we're probably

00:59:26.720 right at the uh the doorway of uh ai being able to figure out the cheaper way to be ai

00:59:37.120 uh there's a whole bunch of uh news also i don't always report all of it but there's a whole bunch of

00:59:42.800 news that goes to the same direction which is ways to make ai use way less energy you know as in all

00:59:51.920 the way down to making it run on a laptop so so i think it's going to be a race between trying to

01:00:01.360 find energy to run these big data centers and not needing energy so maybe somewhere in between is

01:00:09.920 what's going to be real amazon's launching a something called a nova sonic speech to speech ai

01:00:18.640 now all it does is understand human speech like other ais and talk but wow it's good you know i

01:00:27.680 listened to a demonstration and you know how an ai voice is always a little slow and you could tell it's

01:00:33.280 ai and all that this one is just conversational and it speaks fast and it gives you uh just the feeling

01:00:41.520 that's human as heck so apparently it outperforms open ai's voice model which by the way is great

01:00:50.160 you know that the difference between the old pre-ai voice recognition they were terrible

01:00:57.680 i mean just terrible but ever since ai you can really get an app to understand what you're saying

01:01:06.480 even if there's noise in the room or anything else so apparently this is uh rowan rowan chung is uh

01:01:13.600 reporting on this but it's hugely better than anything that's been out there for voice so that's coming

01:01:20.400 uh cash patel is telling us that they got a big win on stopping drugs from cartels they found uh

01:01:28.720 over half a billion dollars in drugs they intercepted uh cash patel calls it one of the most successful

01:01:36.800 counter-narcotics efforts in u.s history we'll see if that makes any difference but it's got to hurt

01:01:44.720 the cartels to lose half a billion dollars in one deal meanwhile over in the house of representatives

01:01:53.120 the republicans have figured out uh how to pass a bill which they passed to stop rogue judges from

01:02:01.680 making decisions that affect places where the judges don't have authority um so another maybe

01:02:09.040 authority is the wrong word but uh you know the problem of judge hunting and the democrats can find

01:02:16.320 a judge anywhere who will stop anything anywhere else in the country and you say to yourself wait a

01:02:23.600 minute why would uh some biased dc judge be able to stop something that's happening not in dc but somewhere

01:02:31.440 else around the country and the answer is well they were getting away with it but now this legislation

01:02:38.240 if it were to pass the senate and i'm thinking it might because the republicans have a majority that

01:02:47.600 they would use the congressional authority to keep judges from passing uh you know from ruling on things

01:02:56.640 that are not in their domain um i'm kind of surprised that this is the way that that gets fixed it seems

01:03:04.480 weird to me that the congress can deal with that what seems like a core issue but if they can

01:03:14.320 it's amazing good luck with that meanwhile according to interesting engineering uh the us now has this

01:03:21.840 powerful microwave weapon that can fry swarms of drones at the same time and boats so if you've got

01:03:30.560 stuff coming out stuff coming at you you know you're a big naval ship or something you see a swarm of drones

01:03:36.960 you can take them all out at the same time with this high-powered microwave uh called leonitis hdo

01:03:45.200 and it can also have engage multiple targets uh it can stop boats so that's pretty impressive

01:03:54.000 uh i think the the boats that get pirated are going to want that

01:04:01.280 we're also working according to newsmax p hegseth is uh coming up with options for a space-based defense

01:04:09.520 shield for the united states so putting something in low earth orbit i guess that can shoot down incoming

01:04:19.040 missiles and and aircraft i would guess um they don't have a decision yet on what that looks like

01:04:26.800 but uh apparently the project to figure out what that looks like and then build it is moving right

01:04:32.000 ahead so we're gonna have a space shield for missiles and if they get through we'll microwave them

01:04:39.600 here's a study that uh i don't know how obvious this one was so side post is reporting there's a study

01:04:49.520 that finds conscientiousness is linked to higher reproductive success worldwide so if you're conscientious

01:04:57.840 which they define as the tendency to be organized responsible self-disciplined and goal-oriented

01:05:04.880 you tend to have more children would you have guessed that or would you have guessed that the people who

01:05:11.200 are least conscientious pump out the most babies and the babies have to take care of themselves basically

01:05:19.680 i don't know i'm a little surprised that conscientiousness is linked to having more babies

01:05:25.680 it just seems to me that the least conscientious people are knocking up their girlfriends and

01:05:31.520 leaving them to fend for themselves but maybe maybe that's the way it is and then in related news

01:05:42.640 um the number of u.s non-parents who never want children is growing so listen listen to this

01:05:49.120 percentage in 2002 14 of non-parents decided said they didn't want any children 14 now that seems

01:06:00.800 manageable doesn't it if only 14 of married people don't want children you'd say to yourself well

01:06:07.520 that still leaves plenty of people that have children so not everybody has to be the same but in 2023 that

01:06:15.280 went to 29 percent 29 of married people don't want kids ever 29 that feels not survivable in the long run

01:06:30.880 does it you know i i think we're gonna end up doing a hungry kind of thing where you you say you won't have

01:06:37.840 to pay taxes if you have several kids uh something's gonna have to give and maybe it's gonna be robots i don't know

01:06:47.760 why would anybody get married if they didn't want kids that's what i would ask the the two times i got married is because

01:06:55.600 kids were already in the mix and everything works better if you're married and you've got step kids or real kids

01:07:03.680 not real kids uh biological kids um

01:07:08.560 but yeah i i can uh this is scary 29 don't want kids do you think that's mostly financial

01:07:18.080 i feel like it might be but also having having children in the modern era

01:07:24.480 doesn't look anything the same because once you once the kid gets a smartphone it's like you don't have a

01:07:32.720 child you know they're they're just wed to their phone um i saw so i studied the other day

01:07:40.560 that the entire influence of the parents ends at i don't know like seven years old

01:07:48.720 and then after that it's entirely pure influence you know it's smartphones and it's peers and their

01:07:57.440 classmates and in school but after the age of seven parents don't have much to do with how they're

01:08:03.760 raised even no matter how much you try because apparently they're just way more influenced by their

01:08:10.320 peers i'm not saying that's good or bad but it's easy to see why somebody doesn't want to do it

01:08:15.520 it because you get a few years where you think you're doing something important and then it's

01:08:20.640 completely canceled out by just the environment you know with the friends they hang out with and that

01:08:27.600 sort of thing anyway so that's what i got for you today sorry it took two tries to get this working

01:08:35.440 um i'm hoping it will work on x by tomorrow uh we'll get that fixed i hope um and we'll take a look at

01:08:44.560 the uh stock market obviously it's going to give back a little bit today but i wouldn't be too worried

01:08:51.040 about it yet we've got lots of things ahead and uh thanks for joining everybody i'm going to talk to

01:08:57.680 the locals people privately in 30 seconds the rest of you i'll see you tomorrow same time same place

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 10, 2025

Episode 2805 CWSA 04⧸10⧸25

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