Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2816 CWSA 04⧸21⧸25

00:00:00.000 My advice to you is, if you own stocks, don't look at them today.

00:00:07.140 It's not a good day for stocks.

00:00:10.280 But we're going to do a show that will take your mind off of all of that.

00:00:15.600 It's going to be so good you won't even believe it.

00:00:30.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of human civilization that's called

00:00:36.640 Coffee with Scott Adams, and you've never had a better time.

00:00:40.260 But if you'd like to take this experience up to levels that nobody can even understand

00:00:45.400 with their tiny, shiny human brains, all you need for that is a cup or mug or a glass of

00:00:50.080 tank or shells or stein, a canteen jug or flask, a vessel of any kind, fill it with your favorite

00:00:55.660 liquid.

00:00:56.260 I like coffee.

00:00:57.000 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine at the end of the day, the thing

00:01:02.600 that makes everything better.

00:01:04.340 It's called the simultaneous sip, and it happens right now.

00:01:07.720 Go.

00:01:14.100 That's some good stuff.

00:01:16.040 That's some good stuff.

00:01:18.340 Well, I'd like to start off by reading a very special, it was an Easter message by Donald

00:01:25.780 Trump, our president.

00:01:28.340 And because it's so sweet and empathetic and caring, I thought I would just read it for

00:01:34.080 you.

00:01:35.080 A dramatic reading from Truth Social from President Trump.

00:01:40.380 Happy Easter to all, including the radical left lunatics who are fighting and scheming so hard 0.87

00:01:46.960 to bring murderers, drug lords, dangerous prisoners, the mentally insane and well-known MS-13 gang 0.98

00:01:53.640 members and wife beaters back into our country. 0.98

00:01:57.160 Happy Easter also to the weak and ineffective judges and law enforcement officials who are allowing

00:02:03.280 the sinister attack on our enforcement on our nation to continue, an attack so violent that it will never be

00:02:11.740 forgotten.

00:02:13.440 Sleepy Joe Biden purposely allowed millions of criminals to enter our country, totally

00:02:19.960 unvetted and unchecked through an open borders policy that will go down in history as the single 0.98

00:02:25.520 most calamitous act ever perpetrated upon America.

00:02:29.660 He was, by far, our worst and most incompetent president, a man who had absolutely no idea what 0.94

00:02:37.020 he was doing. 0.64

00:02:38.040 But to him, and to the person that ran and manipulated the auto pen, perhaps our real

00:02:44.620 president, and to all the people who cheated in the 2020 presidential election in order to get this 0.94

00:02:52.380 highly destructive moron elected, I wish you with great love, sincerity, and affection a very happy 0.98

00:03:01.420 Easter. 1.00

00:03:05.320 Oh, nobody's ever done it better.

00:03:08.640 Well, you know, if you saw anything in the news today, that the Pope did die last night, I guess,

00:03:16.080 at the age of 88, and he did it immediately after celebrating Easter Sunday.

00:03:24.840 Now, of course, I am tempted to make all kinds of inappropriate jokes, but I think maybe today

00:03:32.500 I won't.

00:03:33.700 Maybe I'll just pay proper respect to the Pope and to all those people who follow the Pope,

00:03:41.260 Pope, and I guess we'll get a new Pope sometime soon.

00:03:46.900 But Pope Francis has passed away at 88.

00:03:50.880 I think it was within a day of J.D.

00:03:54.060 Vance visiting and seeing him, which must be really weird for Vance to know that he saw

00:04:02.180 them right before he died.

00:04:05.740 So anyway, and the fact that it happened on Easter is...

00:04:11.260 It was real weird, but it did.

00:04:17.000 Anyway, let's let the news handle that.

00:04:20.480 That's going to be all over the news forever.

00:04:23.440 And you'll get plenty of Pope Francis news, so I won't dwell on that.

00:04:31.100 Let's look at science.

00:04:33.400 Has science got anything to tell us?

00:04:35.560 Well, according to Psy Post, main Kara Yakubian is writing that life satisfaction and personality

00:04:43.800 share strong genetic roots.

00:04:46.940 Did you know that people who were raised in exactly the same family situation can turn out

00:04:55.660 completely different?

00:04:56.600 Well, you could have asked me, yes.

00:05:01.800 People who raised the same can come out differently because genes are the driving force.

00:05:08.520 But according to new research, they're showing that both personality traits and life satisfaction

00:05:16.100 are more heritable than previously thought.

00:05:19.340 How many of you didn't know that mostly what a person is is what they're born with?

00:05:29.660 You've all noticed that people from the same family turned out completely differently, right?

00:05:35.300 Like if you hadn't noticed that, you would be very confused about how anything works.

00:05:39.940 Yeah, whatever you're born with, which presumably comes from your parents, is kind of telling

00:05:47.380 you how you're going to turn out, and it happens kind of quickly.

00:05:52.000 So they could have asked me about that one.

00:05:55.340 All right, here's one.

00:05:56.440 Total surprise.

00:05:58.120 You would never guess, according to the University of Sydney, a high-fat, high-sugar diet impacts

00:06:05.180 your cognitive function.

00:06:06.580 Now, is it my imagination, or is there a new study every single day that says obesity

00:06:14.800 and high-sugar diets and weighing too much is bad for your brain?

00:06:20.760 At some point, they just have to stop doing the science, don't they, and just check with

00:06:25.380 me.

00:06:26.100 It's like, Scott, we've done a thousand studies in a row that all show exactly the same thing,

00:06:32.720 that high-sugar diet and obesity is bad for your brain.

00:06:36.580 We're thinking of doing another study.

00:06:39.100 Don't.

00:06:39.820 Don't, I would say.

00:06:41.320 I would jump right in and say, I'm going to save you some money and some time.

00:06:45.220 No, you're going to get the same result as every other time.

00:06:49.680 No, I don't believe anybody's ever had a different outcome.

00:06:53.860 Pretty much, yeah, same thing.

00:06:56.640 So just ask me next time.

00:06:57.980 Well, Trump is threatening Harvard and his ongoing battle with Harvard, wanting them

00:07:04.120 to change their ways and be less DEI and less anti-Semitic, according to him.

00:07:10.600 But Harvard is hanging tough.

00:07:14.880 And it looks like they're going to lose another billion dollars in federal funding, or at least

00:07:21.260 they'll be delayed until something changes.

00:07:23.140 And that billion dollars would be funding for health research.

00:07:28.720 So that's pretty serious.

00:07:31.300 Now, what percentage of every dollar from federal funding do you think actually goes to the

00:07:38.040 researchers?

00:07:39.760 It's not much.

00:07:41.980 I don't know.

00:07:43.020 I forget the actual number.

00:07:44.880 But it's in the range of 10%, I think.

00:07:48.340 Can you give me a fact check on that?

00:07:52.140 I think 90% goes to overhead to the college, because the college is the entity that has the

00:07:59.660 control and can get the grants.

00:08:02.400 But the actual researchers, the scientists, I think they get like 10% of every federal dollar.

00:08:10.760 So it makes me wonder if anything's actually going to change.

00:08:14.480 Do you think that Harvard won't be able to afford to do the research?

00:08:20.780 Or is it just going to make them not afford paying the lighting bill?

00:08:28.420 I don't know.

00:08:29.240 We'll see where that goes.

00:08:31.560 Meanwhile, the Rasmussen polling people say that 66% of American voters agree on deporting

00:08:41.820 illegals that have broken the law, you know, besides just the immigration law. 0.86

00:08:48.420 So two-thirds of the public agrees with Trump getting tough with the criminals that are in

00:08:57.560 the country and deporting them.

00:09:00.000 Can't do much better than that.

00:09:01.680 Two-thirds?

00:09:03.000 Pretty rare to get two-thirds of anything.

00:09:04.820 Here's a little reminder from SciPost, Eric Nolan is writing this, that apparently they

00:09:16.620 did a study and they found out that county sheriffs in California who have to be elected, that when

00:09:24.640 their election year is happening and they don't want people to be mad at the sheriff, there

00:09:31.220 are fewer traffic stops.

00:09:35.400 So apparently if you're running for re-election as a sheriff, the last thing you want to do

00:09:42.200 is get real tough on traffic.

00:09:45.140 So remember I always tell you that money predicts everything?

00:09:50.300 There you go.

00:09:51.180 If all you have to do is, you know, reduce the amount of tickets you're giving out and

00:09:57.380 it might help you get re-elected, yeah, the money will absolutely predict what's going

00:10:03.800 to happen in every domain.

00:10:06.200 Claudia was leaving for her pickleball tournament.

00:10:08.340 I've been visualizing my match all week.

00:10:10.860 She was so focused on visualizing that she didn't see the column behind her car on her

00:10:15.000 backhand side.

00:10:16.860 Good thing Claudia's with Intact.

00:10:18.620 The insurer with the largest network of auto service centers in the country.

00:10:22.580 Everything was taken care of under one roof and she was on her way in a rental car in

00:10:26.400 no time.

00:10:27.040 I made it to my tournament and lost in the first round.

00:10:30.500 But you got there on time.

00:10:32.380 Intact Insurance, your auto service ace.

00:10:34.980 Certain conditions apply.

00:10:36.960 Well, you remember the Signal Gate drama where Pete Exeth was sending out a message that

00:10:46.660 showed the attack plan or at least the attack schedule for the Hooties.

00:10:54.000 And the other people on the Signal chat thing were mostly people who should see the message.

00:11:02.360 But one of them was accidentally that journalist, Goldberg.

00:11:08.980 Well, it turns out that there's Signal Gate 2 now.

00:11:12.660 So Pete Exeth allegedly also sent details of the March attack, the same attack that was in

00:11:20.020 the other Signal Gate issue.

00:11:22.140 He also sent it separately to his wife, his brother, and his personal lawyer.

00:11:28.080 Now, people like me, we would really like to say, you know, every time you say there's

00:11:40.200 chaos in the Trump administration, I think you're exaggerating.

00:11:44.060 But how in the world do you send your attack plans to your lawyer, your brother, and your

00:11:53.640 wife?

00:11:56.520 I don't even have anything to say about it.

00:11:59.400 You know, apparently Trump is fully backing Hank Exeth, so nothing's going to happen to

00:12:04.100 him.

00:12:04.260 But the fact that this happened twice, and the second time is even worse than the first,

00:12:12.220 because it's the wife, the brother, and the personal lawyer, I don't even know what to

00:12:17.860 say about it, except it's so bad it's funny.

00:12:21.840 Now, I don't think it has any impact on the real world.

00:12:25.440 You know, the Democrats might make something out of it and say, oh, those Hooties could have 0.98

00:12:31.480 quickly adapted, but probably didn't.

00:12:36.340 So, I think it's just funny that it happened.

00:12:40.340 There's not much else to say about it.

00:12:44.220 Well, according to the Maze account on X, which is a good one to follow, Maze, M-A-Z-E,

00:12:53.040 we're being reminded that during the first SignalGate, the Wall Street Journal published a story

00:13:01.460 that said that, and it was wrong, it was incorrect.

00:13:05.700 So, the Wall Street Journal said that Steve Wyckoff was in Russia at the time, and he had

00:13:10.980 his private phone.

00:13:12.640 Now, if he had been in Russia with his private phone, we would assume the Russians would pick 0.93

00:13:17.780 up the signal, and they would have seen the Hootie attack plan.

00:13:21.880 So, that was all the news.

00:13:24.600 Wyckoff was in Russia.

00:13:25.840 Russia, you know, Russia must have known the plan.

00:13:29.540 Turns out that wasn't true. 0.97

00:13:31.820 So, he was in Russia, but he didn't have his phone with him, because that would be dumb.

00:13:36.760 So, but as Maze points out, there were never any on-air retractions or apologies.

00:13:45.660 The fake news just kept on going.

00:13:48.380 You know, they just acted like there had never been any fake news about it, and it just continued.

00:13:55.560 Now, if I hadn't been reminded of this, I wouldn't remember that at all.

00:14:00.220 But, yeah, there's your respectable news sources.

00:14:04.620 Did you know that the U.S. cattle inventory is at a 73-year low, according to Zero Hedge?

00:14:15.340 So, apparently, there were a bunch of things that caused people to make fewer cows, meaning

00:14:25.180 for beef.

00:14:25.900 So, some of it is environmental regulations from the Biden administration.

00:14:33.360 Some of it is drought conditions.

00:14:36.040 Some of it is, you know, just squeezed margins and eroded incentives in various ways.

00:14:43.520 But the bottom line is, we have fewer beef cows than we've had since 1951.

00:14:51.700 So, that's not good.

00:14:59.280 So, if you have a cow, you should impregnate it immediately.

00:15:04.340 You might need an extra cow. 0.99

00:15:06.900 So, doesn't it seem like our food supply is just under attack?

00:15:12.680 It's almost like it's a coordinated campaign to starve the country.

00:15:16.860 It's like, well, you don't have enough eggs.

00:15:19.300 Well, you don't have enough chickens. 0.93

00:15:21.700 Well, it looks like you don't have enough beef.

00:15:24.500 Well, it looks like there's not enough water to grow the vegetables.

00:15:29.660 Doesn't it feel like it's just one thing after another?

00:15:32.900 How in the world is all this coincidental?

00:15:38.060 I don't know.

00:15:39.040 So, we better put some energy on that.

00:15:41.160 I don't even eat beef.

00:15:47.000 But this looks like a pretty big problem to me.

00:15:49.760 So, if you don't want to eat bugs, because you know that's the fallback, you don't want to eat bugs, you might want to fix this cow situation. 0.91

00:15:58.720 Well, I was taking a look at the story about the budget problem.

00:16:05.120 So, the Republicans have this very big problem trying to come up with a budget.

00:16:11.820 Number one, you know, the budget is way beyond our ability to pay.

00:16:17.800 So, you have to cut expenses, which apparently the Republicans are unwilling to do, at least collectively.

00:16:27.580 There might be some that are willing to do it.

00:16:29.300 But collectively, they're unwilling to cut expenses for the vital services that vulnerable people require.

00:16:38.860 You know, the Medicaid, the Social Security, et cetera, where the big money is.

00:16:43.000 And, of course, the military budget just goes up no matter what.

00:16:48.080 So, they can't balance the budget by cutting expenses.

00:16:53.480 But they also can't balance it by raising taxes, because they're Republicans.

00:16:59.300 So, even if some of them were maybe into it for the rich, it wouldn't be enough, and it wouldn't be very popular for a Republican.

00:17:08.580 It'd be hard to get elected if you raise taxes.

00:17:11.500 So, we have a situation where we're something like 27% higher expenses than we have income, which will kill us all.

00:17:22.740 And so, I spent a little time with Doge, I'm sorry, with Grok, trying to figure out just how deep a hole are we in?

00:17:33.940 Is there any plan for survival?

00:17:38.020 Survival.

00:17:39.000 I'm not even talking about optimizing.

00:17:40.620 We currently have a plan for death, because we can't really run this kind of a deficit year after year.

00:17:48.760 And even the Republicans look like they're going to do it.

00:17:51.380 So, they're either not going to pass any kind of budget, and they'll just kick the can down the road, which is what I'm expecting.

00:17:59.480 But nothing is happening that would save us.

00:18:03.680 So, Doge, apparently, I'm going to call it a failure, because it looks like they got to $150 billion, which is good.

00:18:14.340 So, you know, the $150 billion, I'm glad that they saved that.

00:18:19.400 But it really needed to be about 10 times that.

00:18:22.780 And 10 times that would be the bare minimum that maybe you could survive.

00:18:27.160 Probably it needed to be 20 times that.

00:18:29.280 So, Doge worked in the sense that it reduced some expenses, but it did not work in terms of balancing the budget.

00:18:39.700 It didn't even come close.

00:18:41.100 And it doesn't look like anything's going to happen to change that.

00:18:43.920 Which might be why Elon Musk has been a little bit quiet lately, because Doge just sort of didn't work.

00:18:51.000 And I'm not too surprised, because once the, you know, once the cabinet people were in position, they probably just all fought the any kind of cuts.

00:19:03.640 And they just vetoed them, which they had the power to do.

00:19:08.220 So, I don't see any way that we're going to get to it.

00:19:13.100 So, but suppose you just said, all right, we're in an emergency situation.

00:19:21.180 Oh, and also, the, you know, you'll hear people like Peter Navarro say, well, but we have all this tariff revenue, could be $600 billion.

00:19:31.380 We're not going to get $600 billion of tariff revenue.

00:19:36.560 Nobody thinks that.

00:19:37.880 So, you know, maybe it helps a little bit.

00:19:43.520 But if we were, according to Grok, we would have to cut something like a quarter of all the expenses on everything in order to get to a balanced budget.

00:19:54.640 Now, even if you did it gradually, so that you worked up to it, it would be way more of a cut than anybody could survive.

00:20:03.340 But here's the economist in me.

00:20:08.700 If you said to a senior citizen, hey, we're going to have to cut your Social Security by a quarter.

00:20:17.620 Now, you're probably going to say, but just do the rich people.

00:20:20.960 If you did all the rich people and just took away their Social Security, wouldn't make a dent.

00:20:27.440 Because I asked Grok that.

00:20:29.480 Barely makes a dent.

00:20:30.500 You would have to take away just a tremendous amount of Social Security from people who really needed it.

00:20:37.360 That's the only way you could get there.

00:20:39.580 Now, if I told you, hey, a senior citizen, the only way we can survive is if you cut a quarter of your expenses. 0.53

00:20:48.600 Could they live?

00:20:50.320 Could they find a way to survive?

00:20:52.460 I don't know.

00:20:54.260 But here's what they don't know.

00:20:56.500 The alternative is you don't get anything.

00:20:58.360 So, we still think that the alternative is either cut it or don't cut it.

00:21:05.540 That's not the alternative.

00:21:07.180 The alternative is you either cut it or there won't be anything for anybody.

00:21:12.400 The entire system will collapse.

00:21:14.160 So, you can either figure out how to get by with 25% less or you can figure out how to get by with nothing.

00:21:27.480 And I don't think anybody has really made that case because you would have to make that case.

00:21:33.600 The entire thing is going to fall apart.

00:21:36.140 Now, if you were collecting Social Security, you would immediately say, oh, wait a minute.

00:21:42.420 Why don't you just take more out of the military budget?

00:21:45.280 Well, that would be great, except the people who control the military budget control the country. 0.82

00:21:52.020 And so, they're not going to cut their own income.

00:21:54.960 So, we don't really have any way to cut military budgets.

00:22:00.520 Unless we made some kind of deal with Russia and China and we all cut our budgets or something.

00:22:05.680 But it doesn't look like that's going to happen.

00:22:09.980 So, here's my thing.

00:22:14.300 We need something that we've never talked about.

00:22:18.060 I don't know what it would be.

00:22:20.060 But it's going to be something like you can only get Social Security under certain conditions.

00:22:28.260 It's going to be something like Medicaid.

00:22:31.100 Medicaid, you're going to have to use AI before you use the actual Medicaid system.

00:22:38.280 Something like that.

00:22:39.780 So, we're going to have to retool and re-engineer pretty much the entire way we live to have any chance whatsoever of survival.

00:22:51.420 And nobody in the news is talking honestly about this.

00:22:55.660 They're just acting like it's business as usual.

00:22:57.900 It's like, well, it's a budget, you know, it's not optimal.

00:23:02.700 That's not where we're at.

00:23:04.320 We're at complete destruction and kind of guaranteed.

00:23:09.140 So, if you want your money to be worth nothing, then you should insist on no cuts.

00:23:16.520 If you want to keep 75% of your money, you want a 25% cut.

00:23:22.660 So, unfortunately.

00:23:29.480 It would be interesting to see if the United States just cut that much in if it's military and said, here's the deal.

00:23:37.060 If you mess with us, we still have nukes because we didn't cut the nukes.

00:23:41.120 So, don't mess with us.

00:23:42.360 Because it would be better if we don't have the ability to fight every kind of war and every kind of theater, which is sort of what we're preparing for.

00:23:52.600 Wouldn't it be better if we could just fight the wars that we would have to fight?

00:23:56.960 Maybe.

00:23:58.940 So, we'll see.

00:24:00.180 Interior Secretary Burgum, according to Newsmax, says that Trump is fighting a war on mining, meaning that the Biden administration made it very tough to do mining.

00:24:30.680 And, of course, some states would be having their own limitations.

00:24:35.600 But, apparently, Trump has announced a resolution on copper mining, so something that would allow rapid approval to do copper mining.

00:24:45.440 We need that for high tech.

00:24:46.840 And, apparently, Trump has approved 10 different, or there are 10 different mines that are now being added to the list of things that look like they'll get approved.

00:25:03.660 So, Trump's had 10 more mining projects to the list of the fast approval list.

00:25:11.460 So, these are all things that would help us compete against China. 0.97

00:25:14.480 Now, question, could we earn our way out of our debt problem?

00:25:23.560 Could we do so good at mining and energy production and sales?

00:25:30.500 And, you know, basically, you know, just boosting the things that are the most valuable?

00:25:38.320 Mining, energy, robots?

00:25:42.680 I don't know.

00:25:45.040 Maybe.

00:25:47.720 But, here's the kind of world we're living in.

00:25:51.180 Breitbart has an article on that.

00:25:53.320 There's a New Mexico judge who just resigned because ICE arrested a Venezuelan gang member who lived in his house.

00:26:01.300 So, he was a Democrat-appointed judge who had a roommate who was literally trying to do a ragwa. 0.51

00:26:12.640 And, the guy had ammo, gang tattoos, video of him firing an AR-15 with a suppressor, graphic images of mutilated bodies on his phone.

00:26:25.020 And, the judge, who was a former cop, so the judge was a former cop, and he didn't notice anything about his roommate.

00:26:36.480 He didn't notice that his roommate was obviously a gang member.

00:26:41.980 Anyway, that's the world we're living in.

00:26:46.480 Here's a question I saw answered by the Wall Street Journal that I've been wondering about for a while.

00:26:52.660 Well, apparently, Nike has been trying to move its production out of China for a long time.

00:27:01.360 So, not just recently, but for about 10 years, they've been trying to move their production out of China, to move it to Vietnam or Mexico or wherever they can move it.

00:27:13.700 And, they've spent a ton of money trying to automate making of sneakers.

00:27:21.020 But, they found out it never works.

00:27:24.640 So, they can automate a little bit, but mostly, you just need an army of people.

00:27:31.060 And, I never understood why.

00:27:33.580 Like, why is it that you can't automate sneakers?

00:27:37.400 Doesn't it seem like that would be somewhat easy compared to automating, I don't know, a motherboard of a phone?

00:27:44.560 But, here's a reason that makes sense.

00:27:48.860 The materials that you use to make sneakers will change their qualities based on temperature and probably atmospheric moisture, too.

00:28:02.480 So, every time you're putting a sneaker together, it's a little bit different than it was the day before.

00:28:09.060 You can't really automate that.

00:28:11.140 You can automate things that are exactly the same every time, but a sneaker is just a little bit different every time.

00:28:17.740 And, then, on top of that, Nike's business model, which they don't want to change, is that they're introducing all kinds of new models all the time.

00:28:27.360 You would never be able to keep up, even if you could come up with some way to automate the making of sneakers.

00:28:33.880 You wouldn't be able to update your factory to do it automated with all the new models.

00:28:41.620 But, a human being can look at the new sneaker and say, oh, same as the old sneaker, but looks like the bottom is different.

00:28:49.880 So, I'll just glue this together.

00:28:52.140 So, there are some things that we might want to be onshored that just never will be because there isn't any way to automate it.

00:29:01.260 Now, I do wonder if AI could solve that because the automation we're talking about so far is the dumb kind where it just can do the same thing every time.

00:29:13.440 But, if you added AI, would it be able to detect the slight changes in the temperature and the squishiness of the materials?

00:29:25.740 Would it be able to instantly adjust to make the new model?

00:29:29.360 Because it would say, hmm, it's just like the old one except a different footprint, so to speak.

00:29:36.320 I don't know.

00:29:37.040 I don't think so.

00:29:38.220 At least not anytime soon.

00:29:42.260 So, here's a good example of how our trade war is going with China.

00:29:47.620 So, Huawei, wait, hold on.

00:29:55.900 So, the U.S. was blocking NVIDIA from selling its high-end H20 chip to China, to Huawei in particular.

00:30:05.780 And so, you think to yourself, oh, good job, America.

00:30:11.000 We don't want China to have the good stuff, so we'll block them from having the best chips, and then we'll get way ahead on AI.

00:30:19.940 So, what happened?

00:30:22.780 NVIDIA is selling them lesser chips, the 910C.

00:30:26.920 But it turns out that with a little clever engineering, if you have two of them, and you just work them together, they reach the same performance as their high-end chip.

00:30:41.280 So, now NVIDIA can just sell all these low-end chips, which would be totally legal, and China can just stick them together and use some clever engineering, and they end up operating like high-end chips.

00:30:57.020 So, we got basically nothing out of that.

00:31:01.300 Anyway, so, sanctioning the other companies has a limited ability.

00:31:08.460 Reuters has that story.

00:31:11.280 So, here's some AI stories that I don't believe.

00:31:16.960 You know, there's going to be a certain amount of AI, you know, headline news that's true, and there's going to be a certain amount that just is BS.

00:31:29.340 Here's some stuff that my BS detector says, I don't think so.

00:31:33.720 I don't know.

00:31:34.380 I know you're reporting it as true, but I don't know.

00:31:38.500 So, here's one.

00:31:42.300 So, you know the DeepSeq AI that comes from China, which is allegedly as good as other AIs, but less expensive.

00:31:53.120 So, according to Geeky Gadgets, Julian Horsey is writing about this, there's something fantastic happening with DeepSeq, and that it's capable of self-improvement.

00:32:04.740 So, in other words, it can somehow, on its own, get smarter.

00:32:11.160 Do you believe that?

00:32:14.980 Do you believe that without any external interaction, that the AI is already a point where it can just get smarter on its own?

00:32:26.040 I'm going to say no.

00:32:28.200 I don't believe that.

00:32:29.500 There might be some, you know, narrow area in which it can improve itself without external input.

00:32:38.940 Well, I don't believe it.

00:32:40.880 So, it says it can improve itself through, quote, iterative feedback loops, which is just talking to itself, right?

00:32:50.220 It's not talking about checking it with other AI or checking it with people, and that would make sense.

00:32:58.820 You know, if it did things and then some external source checked its work and then it said, oh, okay, now you've checked me, so I'll get this right next time.

00:33:09.380 But how in the world is just running on its own going to allow it to get smarter?

00:33:19.620 You know, I get that maybe it says stuff like, you know, once you get an answer, you should double check it and use these tools to double check it.

00:33:30.240 All right.

00:33:31.160 But there's not much, I don't think there's much room to grow there.

00:33:36.320 So, I'm going to say I don't believe this.

00:33:38.620 I don't believe that DeepSeek is just making itself better by sitting there running on its own because they've got a clever algorithm that they built into it.

00:33:47.840 Don't believe it.

00:33:50.440 Here's another one I don't believe.

00:33:52.680 According to Talk Android, AI apparently has stunned researchers by rewriting its own code to overcome a limitation.

00:34:03.220 So, one of the limitations was the AI was running on trying to solve some problem and it decided it needed more time.

00:34:12.200 So, allegedly, according to this story that I don't believe whatsoever, it rewrote its own code to give it more time.

00:34:25.060 So, it actively modified its own underlying code to extend its operational capabilities.

00:34:33.200 Do you believe that?

00:34:34.880 Do you believe that the AI had access to its own source code and then rewrote it on the fly?

00:34:42.880 No, I don't believe that.

00:34:45.420 I don't believe that even a little bit.

00:34:47.300 Why in the world would they give it access to its own source code?

00:34:53.440 Why would that even be possible? 0.95

00:34:56.120 Who would be dumb enough to allow it to rewrite itself on demand? 0.98

00:35:02.700 I don't see it. 0.95

00:35:05.720 Now, I could understand if it recommended a change.

00:35:09.420 I could see if it said, here's some code that if you add to me, I'll be able to solve this problem.

00:35:17.680 Now, that I could see.

00:35:19.300 But I don't see it just autonomously rewriting its own code and then recompiling and then going forward.

00:35:27.160 Does anybody think it can really do that?

00:35:30.140 These just sound like BS claims to me.

00:35:37.500 Now, obviously, I'm no expert on AI.

00:35:41.740 And so, I could be deeply misunderstanding things.

00:35:44.860 But I'm pretty good at BS.

00:35:48.060 So, no expertise at AI, but pretty good at telling what BS looks like.

00:35:54.460 This just looks like BS to me.

00:35:56.140 I think that they may be sort of true in some technical way.

00:36:02.540 But if you looked into it for five minutes, you would find out it's not exactly what they said.

00:36:07.800 So, I'm not buying it at all.

00:36:12.060 Here's something that's good.

00:36:14.180 So, the European Union, according to Reuters, might tweak their methane rules so that they can buy more U.S. gas.

00:36:22.440 So, apparently, the U.S. has some kind of methane that's different than what they use locally.

00:36:30.160 And they can't buy our gas because they say we have the wrong kind of methane.

00:36:34.500 But the methane that U.S. gas has doesn't seem to be worse or more dangerous than whatever they're doing.

00:36:43.880 So, the EU, because they want to, you know, be able to buy U.S. gas and close the trade gap so that they can get a better trade deal with Trump.

00:36:56.740 They might change their own rules so they can buy U.S. gas without that limitation.

00:37:02.620 And that seems pretty good.

00:37:04.100 So, that would be a big win if we could sell things.

00:37:09.740 You know, I do wonder, does the U.S. produce enough energy or could it that energy alone would be the difference between, you know, meeting our budget needs and not?

00:37:21.600 You know, could we boost our GDP by, I don't know, 10% a year instead of 3% a year or whatever is normal just with energy?

00:37:34.100 Because it looks like there's going to be infinite need for energy all over the world.

00:37:39.880 And Trump's doing a good job of saying you better buy our energy because, you know, it's part of the larger trade deal.

00:37:47.360 I just wonder what the upside of that is.

00:37:50.520 Is this the only way we could save ourselves by becoming essentially the Saudi Arabia of the world? 1.00

00:37:59.140 I guess we already have more oil than Saudi Arabia.

00:38:04.100 In terms of what we're producing.

00:38:06.580 Maybe.

00:38:07.780 I'd love to see some numbers of what the potential upside could be of just being the world's energy producer times 10.

00:38:19.600 Which we could.

00:38:21.160 I mean, it's possible.

00:38:21.960 According to the Amuse account on X, we're paying China to conduct live war games in Egypt.

00:38:36.660 Not directly, but indirectly.

00:38:38.940 So apparently we spend $2 billion a year to support Egypt's military.

00:38:45.220 Now you might say to yourself, well, that's not so bad because, you know, we like Egypt to be on our side and, you know, it's one way to get some influence over there.

00:38:56.760 $2 billion doesn't sound like, you know, the worst thing in the world given all our other expenses.

00:39:02.100 But here's the part you don't know.

00:39:06.220 That Egypt is currently doing war games with China. 0.76

00:39:11.860 So they're doing these extended war games in which they're coordinating with the Chinese military.

00:39:17.820 That's right.

00:39:19.320 The Chinese military is doing war games with Egypt that has the military equipment that we gave them.

00:39:30.800 So do you think they're learning anything about U.S. military equipment?

00:39:37.320 Yes, they are.

00:39:38.160 How in the world is this even possible that we're paying Egypt $2 billion a year for the military and then they're doing military drills with China?

00:39:50.520 It doesn't even seem possible, does it?

00:39:53.060 I hope there's something to this story that I don't know.

00:39:58.160 Well, the Wall Street Journal is warning that the trade negotiations with China are, you know, not going well.

00:40:04.940 And that it could lead to a larger Cold War, meaning that China would take its, let's say, reactions to our trade demands outside of the trade domain and maybe they'd do some more cyber attacks.

00:40:24.180 Maybe they would get a little more militarily adventurous around Taiwan.

00:40:30.480 So a Cold War would sort of bring into the larger equation some extra risks that you don't normally see unless you're in a Cold War.

00:40:43.680 But I wonder how different that would be than what we've experienced for the last 20 years.

00:40:50.340 Don't you think China is already doing what it can to degrade the United States in every way they can get away with? 0.93

00:40:56.900 So I don't know if it would be different, but maybe we'd talk about it differently.

00:41:04.220 But yes, we're heading toward a larger Cold War.

00:41:08.100 I don't see us getting into a hot war or a nuclear confrontation, but a Cold War?

00:41:14.740 Yeah, probably, probably.

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00:42:04.660 So, China is warning other countries that don't make any trade deals with the U.S. that are bad for China.

00:42:26.020 So, Newsmax Money is reporting this.

00:42:30.960 And I don't know what that would look like, but that's a pretty big threat.

00:42:38.740 Don't make a deal with the United States that would be bad for China?

00:42:43.280 How do they define that?

00:42:46.740 Let's say if Vietnam wanted to do more manufacturing with the U.S., would that be bad for China?

00:42:53.560 And therefore, would they try to punish Vietnam?

00:43:00.440 I don't know.

00:43:00.900 It's a pretty big threat.

00:43:02.740 We'll see where that goes.

00:43:05.000 According to the Gateway Pundit, and there are some sources that spoke to Reuters and say that Israel is looking at and is likely to do their own military attack without the United States on Iranian nuclear facilities.

00:43:24.140 So, it wouldn't be as massive as it would be if the U.S. was all in.

00:43:30.180 But since the U.S. is not all in, it looks like Israel might do it anyway. 0.82

00:43:36.240 Now, it does make me wonder how Iran would treat that.

00:43:40.540 Would Iran treat that as the United States was involved?

00:43:43.960 Because Israel would be using our weapons and, you know, probably we'd be giving them some intelligence from satellites and probably we'd have some secret interaction with them that maybe wasn't public, but Iran would know about it. 0.55

00:44:02.320 I don't know.

00:44:02.820 Now, it does seem to me that that's the most likely outcome because I don't think Trump can survive starting a war.

00:44:13.040 He would lose, you know, one of his biggest claims to being a good president if he starts a war.

00:44:23.480 Now, I think the Houthi situation is already questionable because that looks like a war to me.

00:44:29.660 But if he goes after Iran directly and U.S. bombers go over Iranian territory and drop bombs and kill Iranian citizens and take out their nuclear program,

00:44:45.300 first of all, I don't know that it would work, and secondly, we have no idea what Iran would unleash on the United States

00:44:53.860 because it wouldn't take much for, you know, a well-trained group of terrorists to just take down the whole country.

00:45:03.560 You know, I'm not going to give them any suggestions, but you can use your imagination if Iranian... 1.00

00:45:15.300 And if they did, then I guess we would be even more militarily inclined to attack.

00:45:27.320 So maybe Iran would say, okay, let's just deal with Israel and make the best of it. 0.94

00:45:34.320 But yes, I don't think there's any chance that Iran will reach an agreement that Israel and the U.S. think is okay for their nuclear situation.

00:46:04.320 I saw a news bit, but it's not confirmed.

00:46:07.460 Maybe you can fact-check me on this because it was just this morning.

00:46:11.560 Did Trump somehow block Ukraine's NATO bid?

00:46:17.160 Meaning, did Trump say Ukraine will never be in NATO?

00:46:21.500 Did that happen?

00:46:22.180 Because if it did, that would be a weird negotiating position because that would be called negotiating with yourself.

00:46:35.700 Basically, giving something up without getting something in return, unless there's something in return, but I'm not aware of it.

00:46:43.700 So it could be that Trump is just saying, there won't be any NATO.

00:46:50.720 We're not going to pay for Ukraine to be in a war anymore.

00:46:54.060 You guys figure out the land situation.

00:46:58.580 Maybe.

00:46:59.020 But I don't see anything that looks like a peace deal that's going to come out of Ukraine and Russia.

00:47:05.300 I guess they tried to have a ceasefire just for Easter, but that didn't last.

00:47:10.780 The next thing you know, Russia was launching a massive missile and drone attack on Ukraine today.

00:47:19.720 So more fighting to come.

00:47:22.440 Here's a weird story.

00:47:27.360 According to Neoscope, Frank Landymore is writing, that there's now a single injection of a decades-old existing asthma medication called omelizumab.

00:47:43.460 And it's sold as Zolaire.

00:47:46.800 And apparently, it has shown that it can successfully treat all allergies.

00:47:52.440 Then it just eliminates, just eliminates them, all allergies.

00:47:58.780 But it's not even just seasonal allergies, food allergies.

00:48:03.520 So you get one shot, just one injection.

00:48:07.420 And I know, I know what you're thinking.

00:48:09.480 Don't give me no injections.

00:48:12.020 You'll turn me into a piece of wood.

00:48:15.500 So I know that you're not crazy about anything that involves an injection or a big pharma.

00:48:19.740 So I'm not going to say that this works.

00:48:23.240 I'm just going to say that this is in the news, okay?

00:48:27.640 It's not me recommending it.

00:48:29.700 But the fact that they might have an existing medication that you could take once and you would never have allergy problems again, even from food.

00:48:40.900 Do you think there's a catch?

00:48:44.780 Of course there is.

00:48:47.060 There's always a catch.

00:48:48.780 Here's the catch.

00:48:50.540 The annual cost of doing this would be $60,000 per person.

00:48:56.180 $60,000.

00:48:57.540 How in the world could that possibly be the cost for one injection?

00:49:06.000 I don't know.

00:49:07.200 So, but there's some thought that it's on the verge of being a generic.

00:49:12.180 So the FDA approved a generic in March, which could drive down the cost in the future.

00:49:19.140 So it might be a generic shot that removes all allergies.

00:49:25.740 I don't know.

00:49:26.180 So, you're not willing to try it?

00:49:28.980 I think most of you in the comments have said, get that away from me.

00:49:32.780 I don't need no extra shots.

00:49:36.680 And I don't disagree with you.

00:49:40.580 According to Popular Mechanics, Tim Newcomb is writing that engineers believe they found evidence of hydraulics in an ancient pyramid.

00:49:50.180 Which, if they're right, would solve a 4,500-year mystery of how they move these big rocks.

00:49:57.780 So, apparently there's something inside one of the pyramids that suggests that it was built using hydraulics.

00:50:09.040 So they can see some kind of remaining mechanism that seems like it would only be related to hydraulics.

00:50:15.680 So they would, in other words, using water as their mechanism for moving stuff.

00:50:21.540 Maybe.

00:50:23.080 Maybe.

00:50:23.160 Maybe.

00:50:23.180 Maybe.

00:50:23.220 Maybe.

00:50:23.260 Maybe.

00:50:24.260 I don't know how they would move a rock to the top of the pyramid with water, but that would be a pretty clever system if they could do it.

00:50:33.780 Now, here's another story that nobody believes.

00:50:39.920 As you know, every single day, there's a new announcement about a battery breakthrough that you'll be able to charge your car in a few minutes and it will go for 1,000 miles and it doesn't use lithium and every day.

00:50:55.560 But I don't think maybe none of them will actually become products because I'm not seeing any of them come to market.

00:51:02.560 So, here's another one from Interesting Engineering, something that can charge in 20 minutes, an EV battery that will charge.

00:51:13.100 And they figured out some new anode.

00:51:15.940 So, the current ones don't charge that fast, but they've already figured out a new anode in South Korea and it promises to make your car charge in 20 minutes.

00:51:26.960 And it can endure over 1,500 charge cycles so that it would be as easy as filling your car with gas.

00:51:35.320 Basically, 20 minutes is pretty fast.

00:51:37.680 Now, do you think you'll ever see this technology in the real world?

00:51:42.140 I don't.

00:51:43.060 There's literally an EV battery breakthrough every single day.

00:51:50.520 Most of them are from Korea, South Korea.

00:51:54.040 And I don't think you're going to see any of it.

00:51:56.800 I think it's all just announcements.

00:51:59.480 It's sort of announcement science.

00:52:03.820 All right.

00:52:04.620 That, ladies and gentlemen, is all I've got for today.

00:52:09.000 And it's going to be a Pope-filled day.

00:52:12.420 We'll be seeing lots of coverage of that.

00:52:16.160 And then maybe in a day or two, we'll be back to regular news.

00:52:21.900 But after Easter weekend and the death of a Pope, the news got a little slow today.

00:52:29.200 Maybe it'll speed up later.

00:52:31.480 Don't look at your stocks.

00:52:33.660 Don't look.

00:52:35.260 All right.

00:52:35.680 I'm going to say a few words privately to the local subscribers and the rest of you.

00:52:40.120 Thanks for joining.

00:52:40.960 And I will see you tomorrow.

00:52:43.960 Same time, same place.

00:52:47.420 All right.

00:53:01.040 Bye.

00:53:02.040 Bye.

00:53:31.040 Bye.

00:54:01.040 Bye.

00:54:31.040 Bye.

00:54:32.580 Bye.

00:54:38.980 Bye.

00:54:40.380 Bye.

00:54:42.100 Bye.

00:54:43.700 Bye.

00:54:43.900 Bye.

00:54:44.180 Bye.

00:54:49.880 Bye.

00:54:58.440 Bye.

00:54:58.900 Bye.

00:54:59.940 Bye.

00:54:59.960 Bye.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 21, 2025

Episode 2816 CWSA 04⧸21⧸25

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