Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2828 CWSA 05⧸03⧸25

00:00:00.640 I think we should get ready for the best Saturday podcast you're ever going to see.

00:00:07.320 Because all the lazy people are sleeping in.

00:00:10.840 But boy, we're not lazy.

00:00:13.120 Or we're in different time zones.

00:00:15.700 That works too.

00:00:16.460 All right, let's get our notes and our comments.

00:00:39.420 Good morning and welcome to the highlight of human civilization.

00:00:43.380 It's called Coffee with Scott Adams.

00:00:44.960 And you've never had a better time.

00:00:46.280 But if you'd like to take this experience up to levels that nobody can understand with their tiny, shiny human brains,

00:00:53.380 all you need for that is a cup or mug or a glass of tank or chalice or stein, a canteen jug or a flask.

00:00:58.600 A vessel of any kind.

00:01:00.740 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:01:02.780 I like coffee.

00:01:04.180 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure.

00:01:07.100 The dopamine in it of the day.

00:01:08.460 The thing that makes everything better.

00:01:10.320 It's called the simultaneous sip.

00:01:12.120 And it's going to happen right now.

00:01:13.560 Go.

00:01:16.280 Oh, that's just what I wanted.

00:01:22.160 Just what I wanted.

00:01:23.820 All right.

00:01:24.540 Get that fucking comment out of there. 0.99

00:01:27.860 There we go.

00:01:28.740 Well, after the show, there will be a special Spaces for those of you who want a little extra.

00:01:37.640 That will be hosted by Owen Gregorian on X.

00:01:41.980 So if you're on X, just look for Owen Gregorian's X account.

00:01:46.780 You'll see the link for the spaces that will start after I'm done here.

00:01:53.760 Well, let's see.

00:01:54.980 There are, according to the Daily Mail, there are secret CIA files that claim to expose the secret locations of three alien bases.

00:02:05.760 And two of them are on Earth, and apparently they discovered them using remote viewing.

00:02:16.640 Now, I guess the remote viewing was all they needed, so they didn't go to those places and look around, at least the ones on Earth, and see if there were actually any alien bases.

00:02:27.580 But I'm here to tell you that remote viewing, which is where you have this psychic person go, oh, I can see miles from here.

00:02:39.560 There's a submarine base or whatever.

00:02:41.380 Now, you might say to yourself, but Scott, there's a peer-reviewed study that shows that it is, to which I say, peer-reviewed studies are not worth anything.

00:02:56.720 You need a randomized controlled study.

00:02:59.900 Do you know how many remote viewers have passed a randomized controlled study?

00:03:06.600 None.

00:03:08.520 None.

00:03:09.720 Zero.

00:03:10.100 It's never happened.

00:03:12.400 Now, if the only test that's good enough for science is a randomized controlled study, and if remote viewing were real and people could do it, it would be the greatest asset the United States ever had.

00:03:28.000 I mean, it would allow us to win wars and find aliens, and oh, my God, would that be valuable.

00:03:33.880 But nobody has ever passed a randomized controlled study for remote viewing.

00:03:42.200 It's always anecdotal.

00:03:44.820 The one I always laugh about, there's a famous case of the guy who was the best remote viewer, and he was told to look at some location in Russia, or Soviet Union, I guess.

00:04:00.080 It was a while ago, it was a while ago, and he accurately drew a picture of a submarine base.

00:04:05.900 So he showed the submarine and some support structures on the port.

00:04:10.680 And I said to myself, all right, if somebody asked you to look at a remote place in Russia, and it was somebody who would be interested in a military kind of information, don't you think that would be enough to tip you off, that you're looking for some kind of military thing?

00:04:34.160 And if that location happened to be on the water, as in it was sort of an easy place for any kind of maritime stuff, don't you think you would say to yourself, hmm, sounds like some kind of naval base?

00:04:52.160 But if they asked the remote viewer, that means that they can't see what they need to see with a satellite.

00:05:00.620 So you'd say to yourself, hmm, it's near the water, it's Russia, it's probably military, but you can't see everything you need to see from a satellite.

00:05:10.820 What would that leave?

00:05:12.720 A submarine.

00:05:13.360 I mean, so every time you see one of these or hear about one of these stories where a remote viewer got an amazing hit, like how could they possibly have guessed that?

00:05:25.620 It's the usual way.

00:05:27.680 There are just some hints.

00:05:29.940 And then every once in a while, somebody's just going to get lucky.

00:05:34.360 They're just going to literally guess, and it'll be pretty close.

00:05:39.100 So that's what remote viewing is.

00:05:40.720 Remote viewing is very much not real.

00:05:43.540 If you'd like to check that for yourself, do what I did, which is ask Grok, has there ever been a randomized controlled study that showed that remote viewing is real?

00:05:54.760 And it will tell you, nope, it is definitely not real.

00:05:58.880 And if I were to put a level of confidence on this opinion, because I tend to say everything with the same level of apparent confidence, even if I don't have it, 100%.

00:06:12.200 This is one of my opinions where I'd say, 100%.

00:06:16.700 Well, but would you bet every dollar you have?

00:06:21.840 Yeah.

00:06:22.900 Yeah, totally.

00:06:23.720 I would bet every dollar I've ever made.

00:06:26.020 I'm 100% sure remote viewing is not real.

00:06:29.920 Well, there's, according to Fox News, a big surge in gun purchases and also gun training.

00:06:39.560 So that's the good news.

00:06:40.900 People are pretty serious about getting safety training.

00:06:44.800 And apparently now more than 40% of U.S. households have a gun.

00:06:50.060 I wonder at what point burglary doesn't make sense anymore.

00:06:54.800 If 40% of U.S. households have a gun, that's pretty dicey if you're a burglar, right?

00:07:04.620 And you're trying to go in there at night and somebody might be there, but you think they're probably not.

00:07:10.540 I guess one of the tricks that the burglars use is they put a trail cam, a wireless trail cam in your bushes, and they aim it at your house.

00:07:18.720 And somehow they can tell you that you're not home, but they don't know for sure.

00:07:26.080 So 40% is quite a disincentive to go into somebody's house.

00:07:32.260 According to interesting engineering, we now have our first 18-wheel driverless truck that can do long-haul deliveries in the U.S.

00:07:43.420 It's called the Aurora driver system.

00:07:47.000 So we've actually got a truck, and Aurora is a Pittsburgh-based autonomous vehicle tech startup, and they're already pressing it into service for deliveries between Dallas and Houston.

00:08:01.280 So this is the first time that you could go out there and you could potentially see a big wheel, what do they call it, a big rig, long-distance truck with no driver.

00:08:13.760 I'm pretty sure I saw a story that said Tesla is pretty far along in building their own.

00:08:22.460 So I would hate to be a startup company that was going to compete against a Tesla self-driving long-haul truck.

00:08:31.880 Because I feel like Tesla could make them cheaper in the long run, and their self-driving system will be superior.

00:08:42.500 So that's going to be a tough one to compete with.

00:08:44.600 According to Eric Dolan, who's writing for a side post, a new study published in Political Psychology says that, at least in the United States,

00:08:58.760 political identity is the strongest driver of how people view other people.

00:09:03.560 So we've actually transcended race and religion and gender and sexual preference and everything else.

00:09:13.260 But if you're the same political view, you're okay.

00:09:18.060 Now, it seems to me that this is sort of a move in the right direction.

00:09:25.920 On the surface, it would seem like, oh, no, we're so divided by politics, which we are.

00:09:33.880 We're seriously divided by politics.

00:09:35.900 But the accidental outcome of that is that we're less divided by race and religion and gender.

00:09:47.160 Apparently, if you meet somebody that has the same political views, you're just friends.

00:09:54.260 And the other stuff just melts away.

00:09:56.880 And that's sort of the first time that's ever been the case.

00:10:00.220 So, finally, a colorblind world, which also suggests that the Democrat idea of identity politics is truly dead.

00:10:12.140 Because the more divided we get politically, the less we care what color somebody is.

00:10:18.080 I was looking at a video yesterday of a black conservative, I won't name him,

00:10:25.420 who said some things that are super provocative and interesting.

00:10:30.220 And I just said to myself, conservative, you know, I actually feel this difference that, you know,

00:10:40.020 we're not blind to race, of course, we notice, but it's just not the thing that makes you form any kind of an opinion.

00:10:49.360 It's an observation, and then you move on.

00:10:52.620 The decision-making part has to do with their brain and, you know, their beliefs.

00:10:58.400 In other news, MIT Technology Review says there's going to be, for the first time, a magic pig

00:11:08.680 who they've used the CRISPR technology to edit its genes so that it doesn't get some kind of common virus

00:11:18.120 that pigs usually get before they're shipped to slaughter. 0.55

00:11:21.720 So now we have these special, special pigs with special genes made by CRISPR.

00:11:30.800 And you know what that makes me ask?

00:11:33.740 Will the bacon be CRISPR?

00:11:38.500 Will the bacon be CRISPR?

00:11:40.480 That's what I want to know.

00:11:42.040 The whole pig is CRISPR.

00:11:44.100 So, yeah, should be.

00:11:45.280 Well, Trump is continuing to troll the world in his Trump-like way.

00:11:53.480 He posted on True Social an image, an AI image, of himself being the next pope.

00:12:02.300 Because he was asked the other day who he thinks should be the next pope.

00:12:06.020 And he said, I think I should be.

00:12:07.600 That'd be a great job.

00:12:08.700 And I love how provocative that is.

00:12:14.360 It's, on one hand, you can tell he's just joking.

00:12:18.760 And on the other hand, you think, well, is that being disrespectful?

00:12:25.480 And then you think, well, it's not really disrespectful if he personally wishes he could have the job.

00:12:32.260 Because I would suggest it would be a good thing to have.

00:12:36.720 So the fact that he just has that instinct to keep us continually laughing or angered is amazing.

00:12:46.880 Now, I've got a frame on Trump that's my own frame that I don't talk about too much.

00:12:53.860 But when you hear people say, oh, he's got chaos and you don't know what he's going to do and he's unnecessarily mean and, you know, why is he doing this and why is he doing that?

00:13:05.480 I always think of the Bill Maher experience where he found out that Trump in person has nothing to do with public Trump.

00:13:16.300 The public Trump is a show.

00:13:19.600 He's the world's greatest showman.

00:13:21.720 And when you watch his rallies, it would be tempting to say, oh, wow, he's like a good stand-up comedian because he makes people laugh.

00:13:34.820 No, no.

00:13:36.760 Or you'd say he's a good public speaker.

00:13:39.940 No, that's not quite it.

00:13:42.700 He's the greatest showman.

00:13:45.720 And he understands the power of the show.

00:13:48.460 And so when he does things like, you know, posting himself as the Pope, that's the show.

00:13:58.400 If you talk to him in person, he would presumably laugh about that.

00:14:03.060 But if you don't know the difference between the show and the real person, you get all bent out of shape because you think the show is real.

00:14:13.400 No, it's a show.

00:14:14.900 And he understands the power of the show, that he can keep your attention.

00:14:19.540 He can, you know, he can divert you if he needs to.

00:14:22.560 He can make you love him.

00:14:25.540 It's the show.

00:14:26.560 And I don't think that he's even the least bit confused about what's his real personality and what is the show.

00:14:36.180 But boy, is the show good.

00:14:38.400 So good.

00:14:39.000 All right.

00:14:41.600 I guess Reuters is reporting that Texas, we saw this come and signed a $1 billion school voucher law.

00:14:49.920 So now if you wanted to take your kid to a private school and get him out of the garbage schools of the public school system,

00:15:00.420 you can get up to $10,000 per kid that you could use, that the state would give you, you could use for your private school.

00:15:09.220 To which I asked the following question.

00:15:11.960 Is that even close to being enough?

00:15:16.280 What is the price of a good private school?

00:15:20.620 I thought it might be a lot more than $10,000 a year.

00:15:24.920 But maybe there's a difference between the high-end ones and the normal ones or something.

00:15:30.960 Does anybody have that information?

00:15:33.360 The average cost of a private school?

00:15:38.140 Because if all this is doing is allowing rich kids to save some money,

00:15:43.140 somebody says $25,000 a year, $20,000 a year.

00:15:46.720 Yeah, that's kind of what I was guessing.

00:15:48.900 I was guessing $25,000 plus.

00:15:51.000 $60,000 a culver.

00:15:56.300 Wow.

00:15:57.460 $20,000 in Canada.

00:15:58.900 $20,000 to $45,000.

00:16:01.860 Yeah.

00:16:02.960 So all it's really going to do is allow rich kids to save some money, right?

00:16:09.100 Because the poor kids, the ones who really need to have the choice,

00:16:14.180 the poor kids aren't going to be able to afford it just because they got an extra $10,000.

00:16:18.520 So we'll keep an eye on this, but I don't know if this makes a difference in the real world,

00:16:23.880 except to be just a gift to some rich kids.

00:16:29.180 Well, according to the BBC, I'm not sure how much of this story I believe,

00:16:34.400 there's an individual, one guy,

00:16:36.560 who spent 20 years allowing himself to be bit by different snakes on purpose

00:16:46.260 and also injecting himself, in some cases, with snake venom.

00:16:53.180 And he survived.

00:16:55.060 And he survived more than 200 bites from different snakes that he intentionally allowed to happen.

00:17:02.460 And apparently the net effect of this is he built up some natural immunity

00:17:08.460 that would cover a whole range of different kinds of snakes.

00:17:13.360 So now the scientists are trying to figure out how they can harvest his immunity

00:17:19.020 and make it available to other people so that snakes won't hurt us.

00:17:24.340 I'll tell you, that guy sounds a little bit crazy.

00:17:29.920 Is he crazy or is he just like the greatest hero we've ever known

00:17:35.100 because he decided to take on this challenge and get bitten 200 times?

00:17:40.960 To me, that sounds a little mentally ill.

00:17:44.220 So I hope the mental illness is not in his blood 0.98

00:17:47.300 because the only part I want is the snake immunity.

00:17:50.820 Anyway, according to the Wall Street Journal,

00:17:56.600 they're acting surprised that the U.S. economy is showing significant resilience.

00:18:02.180 For example, the jobs numbers are pretty good

00:18:05.140 and the stock market rally is pretty good

00:18:08.620 and the unemployment rate is pretty good

00:18:15.200 and a bunch of companies are trying to bring more business into the United States,

00:18:20.660 which is pretty good.

00:18:23.400 Now, of course, our debt problem is terrible,

00:18:26.560 but there are a whole bunch of normal things that look like

00:18:29.660 they're stronger than you would expect,

00:18:32.060 given that we're in some kind of a terrafore.

00:18:35.580 But we've already forgotten that the Democrats stopped talking about eggs.

00:18:41.140 Have you noticed that?

00:18:42.020 The Democrats went from eggs, eggs, eggs, eggs

00:18:46.940 to how about chaos?

00:18:51.480 Can we talk about chaos?

00:18:54.100 And gas prices, aren't gas prices at least a little bit lower

00:18:58.140 since Trump took over?

00:18:59.440 So eggs and gas prices went from one of the top things

00:19:04.660 that every single Democrat to say every time they talk in public

00:19:08.400 to never mind, never mind about those eggs

00:19:13.140 because their prices come way down.

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00:20:18.360 I'm going to give you,

00:20:19.560 here's the most useful thing I'm going to do today.

00:20:21.660 I'm going to reframe Trump

00:20:23.820 in a way that you haven't seen done.

00:20:27.780 You've seen parts of it,

00:20:29.440 but you haven't seen it done comprehensively.

00:20:32.060 Number one,

00:20:33.960 you are all aware that Trump has said,

00:20:36.880 many times,

00:20:38.400 he said it out loud,

00:20:39.500 I think he's written it in his books,

00:20:41.480 that he likes to be unpredictable.

00:20:43.940 Right?

00:20:44.420 So we're all aware

00:20:46.380 that he's intentionally unpredictable.

00:20:50.100 So what the Democrats did,

00:20:51.860 which was kind of clever,

00:20:53.280 is they reframed unpredictable

00:20:54.920 to chaos.

00:20:58.140 And then it sounds bad.

00:21:00.400 And chaos is one of those words

00:21:01.900 that just scares people

00:21:03.020 who aren't paying attention,

00:21:04.280 especially the elderly.

00:21:05.420 If you're elderly

00:21:07.100 and you're depending

00:21:07.880 on your social security

00:21:09.300 and the Democrats tell you

00:21:11.540 that Trump's full of chaos

00:21:13.340 and he might cut all your benefits,

00:21:15.680 well, you might believe it.

00:21:17.560 So, you know,

00:21:18.900 they're using that

00:21:19.740 Nazi persuasion technique 0.85

00:21:21.860 of the big lie

00:21:22.820 followed by infinite repetition.

00:21:25.720 And it kind of works.

00:21:27.600 But here's what you need to know.

00:21:30.080 The chaos

00:21:30.960 is just his normal technique

00:21:33.700 of being unpredictable.

00:21:35.840 Now, you might say to me,

00:21:37.540 but Scott,

00:21:38.740 clearly the tariff rollout

00:21:41.420 was kind of a,

00:21:43.200 just a hot mess.

00:21:45.860 It looked like

00:21:46.840 they didn't have it well planned.

00:21:48.960 And then as soon as it came out,

00:21:50.860 they're like,

00:21:51.220 oh, but we'll change this.

00:21:53.160 And, oh, we didn't mean it.

00:21:54.560 We'll drop the tariff on that one.

00:21:56.340 And, oh, well,

00:21:58.120 we'll make this tweak.

00:21:59.520 And did I say 100%?

00:22:01.460 I meant 145%.

00:22:03.220 And then it looked to us

00:22:05.640 like all kinds of

00:22:08.000 poor planning.

00:22:12.300 But,

00:22:13.100 here's a frame

00:22:14.500 that you need to understand

00:22:15.820 because I know Trump does.

00:22:18.180 Have you ever heard

00:22:19.020 the saying in war

00:22:20.140 that a war plan

00:22:22.280 only lasts

00:22:23.100 until the first shots are fired?

00:22:24.600 because once the first shots are fired,

00:22:27.740 you have to figure it out

00:22:29.260 like you had done

00:22:30.160 no planning whatsoever

00:22:31.300 because it depends

00:22:33.220 where the shots came from

00:22:34.600 and, you know,

00:22:35.440 and all that.

00:22:36.080 Mike Tyson has a version

00:22:38.620 of that for boxing.

00:22:40.520 And he says that

00:22:41.260 your game plan

00:22:42.740 for your boxing match

00:22:44.420 only lasts

00:22:45.760 until the first time

00:22:46.600 you get punched in the face.

00:22:49.380 So, my question is this.

00:22:51.960 How much was the right amount

00:22:53.960 of planning

00:22:55.640 and implementation

00:22:56.680 for the tariffs?

00:22:57.840 And the answer is

00:22:59.960 if you believe

00:23:01.700 that that should have been

00:23:02.640 really,

00:23:03.320 really well planned,

00:23:05.660 then you don't understand

00:23:07.180 what Mike Tyson was saying

00:23:08.980 and you don't understand

00:23:10.600 what every general

00:23:11.640 will tell you.

00:23:12.840 Your plan

00:23:14.040 is only good

00:23:15.180 until the first

00:23:16.360 shot is fired

00:23:17.680 or the first time

00:23:19.360 you get punched

00:23:19.900 in the face.

00:23:21.620 And he knew,

00:23:23.300 because anybody smart

00:23:24.380 would know,

00:23:25.300 that when he introduced

00:23:26.400 tariffs on all these countries

00:23:28.040 and it was sort of

00:23:29.740 all over the place,

00:23:31.160 that there would be

00:23:32.120 lots of shots fired

00:23:33.240 and lots of punches 0.95

00:23:34.080 in the face

00:23:34.840 and then you figure it out

00:23:36.440 from there.

00:23:37.740 But in the meantime,

00:23:39.380 you're getting the benefit

00:23:40.400 of being unpredictable.

00:23:42.480 Now, you might say,

00:23:44.120 but wait a minute.

00:23:45.480 Why is unpredictable good?

00:23:47.720 Unpredictable is bad,

00:23:49.060 especially for the economy,

00:23:51.200 right?

00:23:52.700 Unpredictable is the worst

00:23:53.620 thing you could have

00:23:54.260 for an economy.

00:23:55.920 Well,

00:23:57.560 temporarily,

00:23:58.520 we saw that our economy

00:24:00.060 pulled back a little bit,

00:24:01.260 right?

00:24:01.660 Stock market dropped,

00:24:03.660 things,

00:24:04.120 you know,

00:24:04.380 the news coverage

00:24:05.320 turned negative.

00:24:07.100 But that's all part

00:24:08.260 of the plan.

00:24:09.180 That's the part

00:24:09.860 where you're getting

00:24:10.400 punched in the face.

00:24:12.620 So,

00:24:13.560 Trump

00:24:13.960 was

00:24:15.440 accurately

00:24:16.240 and correctly

00:24:17.160 not too worried

00:24:18.920 about what a step

00:24:20.280 two would be.

00:24:22.060 Step one

00:24:22.720 was to get everybody

00:24:24.220 all mad

00:24:25.640 and to make it

00:24:27.360 their top priority.

00:24:29.440 So,

00:24:29.680 persuasion-wise,

00:24:31.020 if you could make

00:24:31.700 something somebody's

00:24:32.700 top priority

00:24:33.460 and they're paying

00:24:34.360 attention to it

00:24:35.220 and they're booking

00:24:36.220 flights to come over

00:24:37.240 here to talk about it,

00:24:38.620 that's a home run.

00:24:40.760 Now,

00:24:41.040 some people say,

00:24:41.920 Scott,

00:24:43.300 couldn't you do it

00:24:44.360 the boring,

00:24:45.280 normal way

00:24:45.980 where you just

00:24:47.400 have your ambassador

00:24:49.340 contact each country

00:24:50.860 and say,

00:24:52.020 we'd like to

00:24:52.560 renegotiate

00:24:53.520 our trade deal.

00:24:54.920 Can you meet

00:24:55.940 with us?

00:24:57.080 That wouldn't

00:24:57.880 have worked.

00:24:59.020 There's nobody

00:24:59.820 smart who thinks

00:25:00.760 that would have

00:25:01.280 worked.

00:25:02.140 Would it work

00:25:02.840 a little bit

00:25:03.720 if you took

00:25:05.320 four years

00:25:06.080 for each

00:25:06.640 nation you're

00:25:08.480 working with?

00:25:09.440 Maybe a little bit.

00:25:10.640 But by being

00:25:12.200 unpredictable

00:25:12.940 and maybe

00:25:13.760 a little crazy,

00:25:15.640 the crazy

00:25:16.220 is part of

00:25:16.920 the process,

00:25:17.560 by the way.

00:25:18.420 And remember,

00:25:19.540 this is a show.

00:25:22.060 It's not his

00:25:23.000 personality.

00:25:24.260 It's not who he is

00:25:25.380 in the quiet moments.

00:25:27.040 This is all

00:25:28.260 part of the show.

00:25:29.880 And what Trump

00:25:30.760 can do

00:25:31.220 that no one

00:25:31.760 else can do

00:25:32.520 is he can

00:25:33.660 weaponize the show.

00:25:35.340 And that's

00:25:35.760 what he did.

00:25:36.880 So,

00:25:37.300 when he says

00:25:37.980 how much

00:25:39.780 he loves

00:25:40.260 tariffs and

00:25:41.100 it's going

00:25:41.420 to be

00:25:41.700 replacing

00:25:42.260 income taxes

00:25:43.780 and the money

00:25:44.580 is going

00:25:44.860 to be rolling

00:25:45.420 in,

00:25:46.380 that's the show.

00:25:48.300 That's not

00:25:49.060 necessarily

00:25:49.740 something you're

00:25:50.560 supposed to

00:25:51.000 believe is

00:25:52.380 specifically true.

00:25:54.760 That's the show.

00:25:56.280 And if the show

00:25:57.000 gets every other

00:25:57.820 country to

00:25:59.060 feel uncomfortable

00:26:00.460 because there's

00:26:02.040 too much

00:26:02.500 uncertainty,

00:26:03.600 that's exactly

00:26:04.800 what he needs.

00:26:06.480 If you're

00:26:07.200 going to

00:26:07.420 negotiate

00:26:08.020 productively,

00:26:09.440 you don't

00:26:09.820 want to

00:26:10.080 have your

00:26:10.460 ambassador

00:26:11.040 call their

00:26:11.600 ambassador

00:26:12.120 and set up

00:26:12.760 a meeting

00:26:13.240 because the

00:26:14.280 other country,

00:26:15.120 if they have

00:26:15.520 an advantageous

00:26:16.880 trading situation,

00:26:18.700 which they do,

00:26:19.920 they're just

00:26:20.620 going to

00:26:21.300 shine you on.

00:26:22.960 They're just

00:26:23.500 going to

00:26:23.800 tap you on.

00:26:24.720 As Trump

00:26:25.600 likes to say,

00:26:26.180 they're going

00:26:26.420 to go tap,

00:26:27.020 tap,

00:26:27.280 tap.

00:26:27.960 And,

00:26:28.520 oh,

00:26:28.760 yeah,

00:26:29.120 well,

00:26:29.780 let's schedule

00:26:30.380 that meeting

00:26:30.920 next year.

00:26:32.500 Oh,

00:26:33.100 too bad,

00:26:33.620 our ambassador

00:26:34.160 got replaced.

00:26:35.420 Why don't

00:26:35.960 we wait another

00:26:36.540 six months

00:26:37.180 and then

00:26:37.520 we'll totally

00:26:38.400 have that

00:26:38.840 trade meeting.

00:26:40.100 In the real

00:26:41.100 world,

00:26:41.880 the countries

00:26:42.500 that had

00:26:42.900 better trade

00:26:43.720 deals than

00:26:44.820 we do,

00:26:46.100 and therefore

00:26:46.720 were already

00:26:47.360 at an

00:26:47.780 advantage,

00:26:49.200 they would

00:26:49.640 just delay.

00:26:51.200 And then

00:26:51.740 they wouldn't

00:26:52.220 seriously

00:26:53.180 negotiate.

00:26:55.200 What you

00:26:55.900 needed was

00:26:56.520 somebody who

00:26:57.080 looks crazy

00:26:58.020 and committed

00:26:59.380 and unpredictable.

00:27:01.860 if you

00:27:03.460 throw that

00:27:04.120 at somebody,

00:27:05.100 hey,

00:27:05.420 you know

00:27:05.680 your economy?

00:27:07.000 It might

00:27:07.940 completely

00:27:09.180 collapse.

00:27:10.580 I'm not

00:27:11.240 saying it

00:27:11.700 will,

00:27:12.880 but,

00:27:13.320 you know,

00:27:13.920 some things

00:27:14.480 are in motion

00:27:15.040 and people

00:27:16.400 who don't

00:27:16.860 deal with

00:27:17.300 us,

00:27:17.580 they might

00:27:17.920 get some

00:27:18.300 secondary

00:27:18.880 tariffs.

00:27:19.460 You never

00:27:19.800 know.

00:27:20.480 Maybe

00:27:20.820 they're big

00:27:21.220 ones.

00:27:21.680 Maybe

00:27:21.880 they're

00:27:22.100 145%.

00:27:23.200 There's

00:27:24.000 just no

00:27:24.380 way to

00:27:24.660 know how

00:27:25.580 bad things

00:27:26.180 could get

00:27:26.740 if you

00:27:27.540 don't

00:27:27.740 negotiate

00:27:28.220 with us

00:27:28.700 right away.

00:27:31.220 So,

00:27:31.940 the first

00:27:32.380 thing you

00:27:32.660 need to

00:27:32.920 know is

00:27:33.360 that chaos

00:27:34.140 is really

00:27:35.020 just the

00:27:35.820 reframe

00:27:36.460 of

00:27:36.740 unpredictable.

00:27:38.340 Unpredictable

00:27:38.900 is good

00:27:40.080 if you

00:27:41.100 know how

00:27:41.540 to use

00:27:41.900 it.

00:27:43.080 Unpredictable

00:27:43.640 comes with

00:27:44.420 a show.

00:27:45.960 Trump

00:27:46.520 puts on

00:27:46.980 a show

00:27:47.500 which he

00:27:48.360 knows is

00:27:48.940 a show.

00:27:49.940 So,

00:27:50.420 when he

00:27:50.620 says things

00:27:51.260 that sound

00:27:51.700 to you

00:27:52.060 crazy,

00:27:53.160 it's not

00:27:53.600 like he

00:27:53.940 doesn't

00:27:54.220 know it.

00:27:54.680 he knows

00:27:56.880 it's

00:27:57.080 making

00:27:57.320 you

00:27:57.600 crazy

00:27:58.020 and he

00:27:58.960 knows

00:27:59.200 it creates

00:27:59.800 a sense

00:28:01.080 of urgency

00:28:01.900 in all

00:28:03.140 the people

00:28:03.600 who get

00:28:04.020 dragged

00:28:04.380 into the

00:28:04.880 show

00:28:05.200 which so

00:28:05.860 far is

00:28:06.340 every

00:28:06.680 country

00:28:07.020 we do

00:28:07.420 business

00:28:07.800 with.

00:28:09.080 So,

00:28:09.720 what would

00:28:10.700 you do

00:28:11.160 if you

00:28:11.600 were an

00:28:12.220 Asian

00:28:12.500 country

00:28:12.900 that didn't

00:28:13.480 want any

00:28:13.980 uncertainty?

00:28:15.720 You would

00:28:16.420 get on the

00:28:16.920 first plane

00:28:17.520 you could,

00:28:18.500 you'd come

00:28:18.980 over here

00:28:19.560 and you'd

00:28:20.520 give up

00:28:20.920 something

00:28:21.300 to get

00:28:22.300 your

00:28:22.500 certainty

00:28:22.800 back.

00:28:23.780 And that's

00:28:24.100 what's

00:28:24.340 happening.

00:28:25.560 So,

00:28:26.380 uncertainty

00:28:27.560 causes

00:28:28.620 anxiety

00:28:29.460 in the

00:28:30.020 person

00:28:30.300 you were

00:28:30.800 dealing

00:28:31.200 with.

00:28:31.960 They need

00:28:32.620 to get

00:28:32.920 rid of

00:28:33.160 the

00:28:33.320 anxiety

00:28:33.940 and so

00:28:35.160 they're

00:28:35.380 going to

00:28:35.620 give you

00:28:36.040 something

00:28:36.420 to get

00:28:37.500 back to

00:28:38.000 certainty.

00:28:39.360 That's how

00:28:40.040 negotiations

00:28:40.720 work if

00:28:41.800 you have

00:28:42.740 a showman

00:28:43.240 doing it

00:28:43.740 who really

00:28:44.320 understands

00:28:44.960 the field.

00:28:45.880 If you

00:28:46.600 were a

00:28:47.120 Democrat

00:28:47.440 and you're

00:28:48.660 just watching

00:28:49.200 it,

00:28:49.580 you say

00:28:49.920 stupid 0.75

00:28:50.400 shit like, 0.75

00:28:51.660 oh,

00:28:52.040 why don't

00:28:52.380 you use

00:28:52.880 a scalpel

00:28:53.540 instead of

00:28:54.580 a chainsaw?

00:28:56.220 That's

00:28:56.620 what somebody

00:28:57.120 with no

00:28:57.500 real experience

00:28:58.500 or understanding

00:28:59.240 of the

00:28:59.660 show or

00:29:00.300 negotiating

00:29:01.040 or anything

00:29:02.560 says.

00:29:04.060 Because they

00:29:04.600 imagine that

00:29:05.580 the normal

00:29:06.820 boring processes

00:29:07.920 would get you

00:29:08.660 a good

00:29:08.980 outcome.

00:29:09.840 They won't.

00:29:10.440 they never

00:29:11.640 could.

00:29:12.480 They don't

00:29:12.880 have that

00:29:13.300 power.

00:29:14.460 But he's

00:29:14.960 created a

00:29:15.600 situation where

00:29:16.300 he definitely

00:29:16.840 has the

00:29:17.280 power to

00:29:18.420 get people

00:29:18.920 to want

00:29:19.300 to get

00:29:19.540 rid of

00:29:19.820 their

00:29:19.980 anxiety.

00:29:21.980 And you

00:29:22.280 saw that

00:29:22.660 the stock

00:29:23.120 market,

00:29:24.020 as soon

00:29:24.480 as it

00:29:24.800 saw

00:29:25.000 something

00:29:25.360 that looked

00:29:25.740 like a

00:29:26.840 little bit

00:29:27.320 of certainty,

00:29:28.820 went

00:29:29.020 right up.

00:29:31.640 And there's

00:29:32.280 probably more

00:29:32.740 to come on

00:29:33.200 that.

00:29:34.360 So,

00:29:35.300 here's what

00:29:36.900 you need

00:29:37.180 to know.

00:29:40.200 There's

00:29:40.720 probably no

00:29:41.460 uncertainty

00:29:42.060 whatsoever

00:29:42.780 about what

00:29:44.100 it is we

00:29:44.640 want from

00:29:45.360 each country.

00:29:46.960 So,

00:29:47.700 we might

00:29:48.160 say,

00:29:48.640 South Korea,

00:29:49.640 we just

00:29:50.400 need to

00:29:51.560 get rid

00:29:51.900 of these

00:29:52.220 tariffs on

00:29:52.840 these three

00:29:53.640 things.

00:29:55.000 China might 0.71

00:29:56.460 be,

00:29:56.980 we need

00:29:57.320 you to

00:29:57.600 stop doing

00:29:58.120 the fentanyl

00:29:58.740 business,

00:29:59.960 we need

00:30:00.700 you to

00:30:00.960 stop stealing

00:30:01.600 IP,

00:30:03.340 and we

00:30:03.700 need a

00:30:03.980 bunch of

00:30:04.320 stuff with

00:30:04.720 tariffs.

00:30:05.080 At the

00:30:07.040 negotiating

00:30:07.800 level,

00:30:08.400 you know,

00:30:08.600 the people

00:30:09.180 who actually

00:30:09.680 be in the

00:30:10.140 room to

00:30:10.560 negotiate the

00:30:11.520 beginning of

00:30:11.960 a deal,

00:30:12.840 they know

00:30:13.360 exactly what

00:30:14.020 they're going

00:30:14.300 to ask for,

00:30:15.220 they know

00:30:15.640 what a bad

00:30:16.120 deal looks

00:30:16.640 like,

00:30:17.560 and they

00:30:17.900 know which

00:30:18.560 country has

00:30:19.300 which kind

00:30:19.800 of bad

00:30:20.160 deals with

00:30:20.700 us,

00:30:21.300 and there's

00:30:21.920 no uncertainty

00:30:22.600 there whatsoever.

00:30:23.760 We know

00:30:24.400 what their

00:30:24.900 situation is,

00:30:25.820 and we know

00:30:26.220 what we'd

00:30:26.760 prefer,

00:30:28.100 so we know

00:30:28.760 what we're

00:30:29.120 going to ask

00:30:29.440 for.

00:30:30.060 And the

00:30:30.480 other countries

00:30:31.060 probably know

00:30:31.720 that too.

00:30:32.620 They probably

00:30:33.040 show up

00:30:33.780 knowing

00:30:34.580 exactly what

00:30:35.600 we're going

00:30:35.900 to ask

00:30:36.200 for,

00:30:37.040 because they

00:30:37.460 also understand

00:30:38.360 their trade

00:30:39.600 advantage.

00:30:41.540 This episode

00:30:42.660 is brought

00:30:43.140 to you by

00:30:43.720 Square.

00:30:44.260 You're not

00:30:44.920 just running

00:30:45.600 a restaurant,

00:30:46.320 you're building

00:30:46.940 something big,

00:30:48.400 and Square's

00:30:49.000 there for all

00:30:49.580 of it,

00:30:50.160 giving your

00:30:50.540 customers more

00:30:51.420 ways to order,

00:30:52.440 whether that's

00:30:53.040 in person with

00:30:53.880 Square Kiosk,

00:30:54.700 or online.

00:30:56.360 Instant access

00:30:57.040 to your sales,

00:30:58.080 plus the funding

00:30:58.820 you need to go

00:30:59.420 even bigger,

00:31:00.260 and real-time

00:31:01.220 insights so you

00:31:02.100 know what's

00:31:02.420 working,

00:31:03.060 what's not,

00:31:03.940 and what's

00:31:04.600 next.

00:31:05.120 Because when

00:31:05.760 you're doing

00:31:06.180 big things,

00:31:07.060 your tools

00:31:07.600 should too.

00:31:08.620 Visit

00:31:08.860 square.ca

00:31:09.840 to get

00:31:10.200 started.

00:31:12.900 So,

00:31:14.380 here's what I

00:31:16.240 think.

00:31:17.260 As soon as

00:31:18.160 Trump gets a

00:31:18.920 few deals

00:31:19.600 signed,

00:31:20.660 everything's

00:31:21.680 going to look

00:31:22.120 different.

00:31:23.420 Now,

00:31:23.960 the Democrats

00:31:24.500 are going to

00:31:24.920 have to come

00:31:25.320 up with a

00:31:25.780 whole new

00:31:26.520 attack,

00:31:28.040 so I guess

00:31:29.020 they'll say

00:31:29.520 that the trade

00:31:30.300 deals are

00:31:30.940 worse than

00:31:32.240 what he

00:31:32.560 had,

00:31:33.060 even if

00:31:33.460 that's not

00:31:33.920 true,

00:31:34.640 because people

00:31:35.580 aren't going

00:31:35.900 to really be

00:31:36.740 able to

00:31:37.040 check.

00:31:37.840 So they'll

00:31:38.280 probably just

00:31:38.680 come up with

00:31:39.220 a new

00:31:39.680 Nazi lie

00:31:40.640 and say,

00:31:41.800 oh, we

00:31:43.060 just gave

00:31:43.540 away the

00:31:43.960 farm,

00:31:44.680 and then the

00:31:46.120 average person

00:31:46.780 won't even

00:31:47.180 know how to

00:31:47.600 check to

00:31:48.940 find out if

00:31:49.900 we came out

00:31:50.420 ahead or

00:31:50.840 behind,

00:31:51.520 and then

00:31:52.040 they'll just

00:31:52.460 repeat it

00:31:53.100 over and

00:31:53.500 over.

00:31:54.200 Oh, I

00:31:54.560 gave away

00:31:54.860 the farm,

00:31:55.380 gave away

00:31:55.680 the farm,

00:31:56.640 looks like

00:31:57.060 you gave

00:31:57.380 away the

00:31:57.720 farm,

00:31:58.380 and they'll

00:31:59.020 have a

00:31:59.320 little phrase

00:32:00.100 that they'll

00:32:01.240 all repeat,

00:32:02.080 and it

00:32:02.340 might be

00:32:02.620 that one,

00:32:03.660 you gave

00:32:04.060 away the

00:32:04.400 farm,

00:32:05.380 and they'll

00:32:06.720 repeat it

00:32:07.280 endlessly,

00:32:08.360 which is the

00:32:09.320 Hitler technique,

00:32:10.620 because the

00:32:11.700 Democrats are

00:32:12.620 fully committed

00:32:13.960 to Hitlerian 0.59

00:32:16.080 persuasion at

00:32:17.300 this point,

00:32:18.160 they're completely

00:32:19.880 down with it,

00:32:21.300 and then they're

00:32:23.040 going to say

00:32:23.340 stuff like this,

00:32:24.100 I saw somebody

00:32:24.720 say that the

00:32:26.980 reshoring of

00:32:28.440 the chip

00:32:29.320 making,

00:32:30.220 it's not

00:32:30.820 even reshoring

00:32:31.580 because it

00:32:31.920 wasn't here

00:32:32.380 in the first

00:32:33.180 place,

00:32:34.220 but, you

00:32:34.840 know,

00:32:35.060 TSMC, I

00:32:37.260 guess, said

00:32:37.840 it's broken

00:32:38.580 ground now

00:32:39.200 in its third

00:32:40.260 chip making

00:32:41.600 place in the

00:32:42.320 United States,

00:32:44.120 and I saw

00:32:44.820 somebody say,

00:32:45.860 you don't

00:32:46.800 understand,

00:32:47.460 it will take

00:32:47.920 10 years to

00:32:49.640 build a new

00:32:50.420 chip manufacturing

00:32:51.520 plant in the

00:32:52.220 United States,

00:32:53.160 to which I

00:32:53.760 say, so that

00:32:55.620 means we should

00:32:56.200 start today,

00:32:56.860 right?

00:32:57.100 If you think

00:32:58.860 that because it

00:32:59.640 takes 10 years

00:33:00.460 you shouldn't

00:33:01.060 do it, what

00:33:02.780 the hell is

00:33:03.240 that?

00:33:04.880 What kind of

00:33:06.900 idea is that?

00:33:08.700 That if it

00:33:09.320 takes 10 years

00:33:10.160 to do it,

00:33:10.800 this thing,

00:33:11.360 which is

00:33:11.600 completely

00:33:12.160 necessary,

00:33:13.880 that you

00:33:14.480 shouldn't do

00:33:14.920 it?

00:33:16.800 No, if it

00:33:17.540 takes 10 years,

00:33:18.460 you should start

00:33:19.040 now, and you

00:33:19.920 should try to

00:33:20.400 get it down

00:33:20.820 to five,

00:33:21.780 which is

00:33:22.680 probably

00:33:23.160 possible.

00:33:23.680 So, he's

00:33:26.200 got that

00:33:26.560 going for

00:33:27.040 him, and

00:33:28.780 the other

00:33:30.940 thing that

00:33:31.540 the Democrats

00:33:32.700 get wrong is

00:33:33.720 they say that

00:33:34.260 he's ruined

00:33:34.860 our reputation

00:33:35.680 in the world.

00:33:37.160 Do you think

00:33:37.540 that's true?

00:33:39.400 Do you think

00:33:40.200 if Trump

00:33:40.800 starts rolling

00:33:41.800 up the trade

00:33:42.760 negotiations and

00:33:43.860 he gets a

00:33:44.400 win after win

00:33:45.340 after win,

00:33:46.680 and he'll

00:33:47.020 probably start

00:33:47.540 with our

00:33:47.900 friendliest trade

00:33:48.840 partners so

00:33:49.520 that he knows

00:33:50.040 he gets some

00:33:50.580 easy wins,

00:33:51.600 you know,

00:33:51.820 it won't be

00:33:52.260 China first. 0.94

00:33:54.320 Do you think

00:33:55.080 that the other

00:33:55.620 countries will

00:33:56.260 say, oh,

00:33:58.440 he's crazy?

00:34:00.280 Or will

00:34:00.940 they say,

00:34:02.240 all right,

00:34:02.680 well, okay,

00:34:04.400 it started

00:34:04.900 out kind of

00:34:05.520 sketchy, but

00:34:06.240 he is getting

00:34:07.620 some deals,

00:34:08.700 and they are

00:34:09.900 good for the

00:34:10.400 United States.

00:34:11.680 The thing you

00:34:12.500 need to know

00:34:12.940 about international

00:34:13.800 relations is

00:34:15.460 they're not

00:34:16.220 personal,

00:34:17.220 they're all

00:34:17.680 transactional.

00:34:19.440 The very

00:34:21.000 minute

00:34:21.560 that another

00:34:23.020 country needs

00:34:23.880 the United

00:34:24.340 States for

00:34:25.000 anything,

00:34:26.160 they're going

00:34:26.560 to be

00:34:26.760 friendly.

00:34:28.020 The minute

00:34:28.780 they don't

00:34:29.180 need us

00:34:29.520 for anything

00:34:30.140 ever,

00:34:30.900 including

00:34:31.220 national defense

00:34:32.160 or trade,

00:34:33.480 well,

00:34:33.840 they're going

00:34:34.140 to be

00:34:34.360 jerks.

00:34:35.940 And it

00:34:36.320 has nothing

00:34:36.740 to do

00:34:37.160 with Trump

00:34:38.320 making people

00:34:39.160 mad and

00:34:39.840 insulting people.

00:34:41.180 That stuff

00:34:42.020 is completely

00:34:42.900 just transient.

00:34:45.180 It just

00:34:45.860 gets them

00:34:46.340 going,

00:34:46.900 it makes

00:34:47.200 them pay 0.89

00:34:47.540 attention to

00:34:48.120 the United

00:34:48.520 States,

00:34:48.980 it makes

00:34:49.900 them think

00:34:50.340 that whatever

00:34:51.040 we need

00:34:51.720 them to

00:34:52.080 do is the

00:34:52.560 most important

00:34:53.120 thing they

00:34:53.500 need to

00:34:53.820 do to

00:34:54.260 make their

00:34:55.300 uncertainty

00:34:55.800 go away. 0.82

00:34:58.680 But by

00:34:59.400 far,

00:35:00.320 all that

00:35:01.040 matters is

00:35:01.720 we end

00:35:02.120 up in a

00:35:02.480 good place.

00:35:04.020 So if we

00:35:05.020 end up in a

00:35:05.560 place where

00:35:06.160 we're trading

00:35:06.900 with other

00:35:07.360 countries and

00:35:08.140 we've got

00:35:08.500 maybe some

00:35:09.820 kind of

00:35:10.200 defense agreement

00:35:11.080 with them,

00:35:11.900 they're going

00:35:12.280 to be perfectly

00:35:12.940 happy.

00:35:14.080 Maybe they

00:35:14.740 need to wait

00:35:15.280 for the next

00:35:15.800 president,

00:35:17.080 but that's not

00:35:17.620 too far away.

00:35:18.720 The United

00:35:19.200 States is not

00:35:19.920 going to lose

00:35:21.420 all of its

00:35:22.420 reputation just

00:35:24.960 because it did

00:35:25.620 a good job

00:35:26.220 getting better

00:35:26.760 trade deals.

00:35:27.840 That's not

00:35:28.300 going to

00:35:28.460 happen.

00:35:31.340 Let's talk

00:35:32.040 about Doge.

00:35:33.560 I've been a

00:35:34.620 critic of

00:35:35.680 Doge in

00:35:36.540 the sense

00:35:36.940 that I

00:35:37.280 don't believe

00:35:37.840 some of

00:35:38.220 their anecdotal

00:35:39.140 stories of

00:35:40.000 successes.

00:35:41.500 And I was

00:35:43.460 hoping for a

00:35:44.160 trillion dollars

00:35:44.820 in savings,

00:35:45.660 but it looks

00:35:46.080 like they're

00:35:47.260 not going to

00:35:47.600 get close

00:35:48.100 to that.

00:35:49.660 But they

00:35:51.100 are doing

00:35:51.660 something that

00:35:53.120 is so

00:35:53.600 wonderfully big

00:35:54.800 and important

00:35:55.420 that it might

00:35:56.140 be bigger

00:35:56.880 than even

00:35:57.800 the savings,

00:35:59.040 which is

00:36:00.040 they're putting

00:36:00.440 in fraud

00:36:01.020 catching systems.

00:36:03.280 And by that

00:36:03.740 I mean requiring

00:36:05.040 let's say a

00:36:05.700 code and some

00:36:06.680 kind of a

00:36:07.160 receipt before

00:36:08.580 money is

00:36:09.240 dispersed so

00:36:10.660 that people

00:36:11.100 just can't

00:36:11.760 easily get

00:36:12.420 away with

00:36:12.800 fraud.

00:36:13.680 That might

00:36:14.440 be the most

00:36:15.000 important thing

00:36:15.640 they do

00:36:16.120 because if

00:36:17.700 they upgrade

00:36:18.220 the systems

00:36:19.020 and systems

00:36:20.700 here is both

00:36:21.600 computer as

00:36:22.740 well as how

00:36:23.180 people act

00:36:23.860 and they put

00:36:26.560 in fraud

00:36:27.120 catching systems,

00:36:28.760 that might be

00:36:30.600 your trillion

00:36:31.160 dollars.

00:36:32.540 I mean I don't

00:36:32.960 know how big

00:36:33.460 it could be,

00:36:34.240 but when you

00:36:35.040 look at how

00:36:35.500 much is clearly

00:36:36.280 being stolen

00:36:37.040 from taxpayers,

00:36:39.200 that could be

00:36:40.000 the biggest

00:36:40.460 legacy.

00:36:41.700 That there'll

00:36:42.140 always be a

00:36:42.780 doge.

00:36:44.900 I said this

00:36:45.740 before that

00:36:46.440 you know the

00:36:46.920 big benefit

00:36:47.760 is that we

00:36:48.620 know what a

00:36:49.080 doge is and

00:36:50.720 we realize we

00:36:51.440 didn't have

00:36:51.840 one, meaning

00:36:53.120 that we didn't

00:36:53.660 have anybody

00:36:54.320 looking to see

00:36:55.160 if we were

00:36:55.560 being efficient

00:36:56.260 and legal or

00:36:58.000 if there were

00:36:58.440 fraud.

00:36:59.680 So once people

00:37:00.800 realize, oh,

00:37:02.440 well if you

00:37:03.120 did it right,

00:37:04.620 and everybody

00:37:05.400 has a different

00:37:06.000 idea what that

00:37:06.700 looks like,

00:37:07.460 but if you did

00:37:08.120 it right, it'd

00:37:09.820 be a good idea

00:37:10.480 to have a

00:37:10.940 doge everywhere

00:37:11.860 in your

00:37:12.700 state, in

00:37:13.340 your corporation,

00:37:14.500 in your

00:37:14.780 organization.

00:37:16.320 So yeah,

00:37:17.140 it's a

00:37:17.900 completely

00:37:18.440 civilization

00:37:20.360 altering

00:37:21.340 concept, and

00:37:23.720 it's an

00:37:24.160 important one.

00:37:26.760 I guess the

00:37:27.200 White House

00:37:27.620 has unveiled

00:37:29.880 a new

00:37:30.400 website that

00:37:31.800 some say

00:37:32.300 looks like

00:37:32.820 the old

00:37:33.220 drudge

00:37:33.540 report.

00:37:34.280 New York

00:37:34.580 Post is

00:37:35.080 reporting on

00:37:35.720 this, and

00:37:37.060 the idea is

00:37:37.740 that the

00:37:38.260 White House

00:37:39.500 wants to

00:37:40.160 tell people

00:37:40.860 what's real

00:37:42.120 and what's

00:37:43.040 not fake

00:37:44.080 news.

00:37:45.220 So we'll

00:37:46.040 see.

00:37:46.540 I haven't

00:37:46.960 seen it

00:37:47.280 yet, but

00:37:48.680 I'm sure

00:37:49.100 it's biased.

00:37:51.580 I don't

00:37:52.300 know how

00:37:52.600 much play

00:37:53.060 it'll get,

00:37:53.520 but it's

00:37:53.800 sort of a

00:37:54.260 good idea.

00:37:55.220 I do think

00:37:55.840 the White

00:37:56.940 House having

00:37:57.540 a hoax

00:37:58.180 list, which

00:37:59.560 they have,

00:38:00.900 and then

00:38:01.520 putting their

00:38:02.200 own frame of

00:38:04.300 what the

00:38:05.400 truth is on

00:38:06.360 their website,

00:38:07.540 pretty good.

00:38:08.860 Making it

00:38:09.360 look like

00:38:09.780 a news

00:38:10.680 report,

00:38:12.120 that's

00:38:13.740 probably a

00:38:14.120 good decision

00:38:14.680 as well.

00:38:17.200 Well,

00:38:17.920 Bill Maher's

00:38:18.880 panel

00:38:19.380 apparently

00:38:21.680 didn't like

00:38:22.180 the idea

00:38:22.600 that Oklahoma

00:38:23.560 is going to

00:38:24.160 require their

00:38:24.780 students to

00:38:25.420 learn that

00:38:26.660 the 2020

00:38:27.380 election was

00:38:28.420 quote,

00:38:28.880 tainted by

00:38:29.740 fraud.

00:38:32.440 Now,

00:38:33.200 without getting

00:38:34.000 into the

00:38:35.700 weeds of

00:38:36.320 whether the

00:38:36.920 2020 election

00:38:37.960 was in

00:38:38.440 fact tainted

00:38:39.720 with fraud,

00:38:41.360 and I would

00:38:42.580 say that there

00:38:43.100 are two

00:38:43.540 categories of

00:38:44.340 fraud.

00:38:45.420 One would

00:38:46.080 be money

00:38:47.680 coming in

00:38:48.300 from the

00:38:48.620 outside and

00:38:49.480 the lawyers

00:38:50.020 changing the

00:38:50.820 rules and

00:38:51.720 changing them

00:38:53.280 in a way that

00:38:53.980 the courts

00:38:55.040 would never

00:38:55.480 have agreed,

00:38:56.240 but somehow

00:38:56.880 they didn't

00:38:57.300 look at it.

00:38:57.940 that seems

00:39:00.140 pretty sketchy,

00:39:02.000 but not

00:39:03.100 exactly what

00:39:03.900 I'd call

00:39:04.260 fraud.

00:39:05.000 It just

00:39:05.460 seems like

00:39:06.000 the election

00:39:07.380 was gamed,

00:39:08.940 I will say.

00:39:09.880 Gamed,

00:39:10.540 but not

00:39:10.860 necessarily

00:39:11.420 illegally.

00:39:12.940 In some

00:39:13.520 cases,

00:39:14.020 maybe in a

00:39:14.460 minor way.

00:39:15.720 But the

00:39:16.120 other one

00:39:16.860 would be,

00:39:17.580 is there

00:39:18.080 actually some

00:39:18.960 obvious case

00:39:20.020 of real

00:39:21.880 fraud,

00:39:22.800 like where

00:39:23.220 fake votes

00:39:23.920 were counted

00:39:24.380 and stuff?

00:39:25.680 And then you

00:39:26.220 also have the

00:39:26.680 issue of

00:39:27.200 the illegal

00:39:28.680 voters,

00:39:29.420 et cetera.

00:39:32.700 So we

00:39:33.360 don't have

00:39:33.700 to get into

00:39:34.160 that,

00:39:34.720 but I like

00:39:35.360 the fact

00:39:35.760 that Oklahoma

00:39:36.460 is going to

00:39:37.860 teach their

00:39:38.440 students that

00:39:39.140 it was

00:39:39.440 tainted with

00:39:40.140 fraud.

00:39:42.520 I do think

00:39:43.520 there's enough

00:39:44.140 publicly

00:39:45.520 confirmed

00:39:46.400 information to

00:39:47.520 say,

00:39:48.420 I don't know

00:39:49.480 about that

00:39:49.920 election.

00:39:51.360 I'm not so

00:39:52.240 sure that we

00:39:52.960 had all the

00:39:53.500 controls on

00:39:55.000 everything that

00:39:55.600 we needed.

00:39:56.680 I'm not so

00:39:57.260 sure you

00:39:57.740 could even

00:39:58.120 audit it.

00:39:59.400 And why

00:39:59.760 in the

00:40:00.040 world was

00:40:00.580 there just

00:40:00.940 one year

00:40:01.620 in which

00:40:02.100 there were

00:40:02.380 way more

00:40:02.940 Democrat

00:40:03.380 voters that

00:40:05.020 didn't match

00:40:06.140 the historical

00:40:06.960 trend and

00:40:07.680 didn't even

00:40:08.100 match what

00:40:08.600 happened at

00:40:09.300 the very

00:40:09.620 next election?

00:40:11.220 Now,

00:40:11.540 to me,

00:40:12.020 that is

00:40:12.480 pretty tainted.

00:40:14.820 Now,

00:40:15.420 can I prove

00:40:16.000 it?

00:40:16.520 Nope.

00:40:17.400 I don't have

00:40:17.980 any proof that

00:40:19.020 the election

00:40:19.420 was stolen or

00:40:20.500 rigged,

00:40:21.260 but it looks

00:40:22.100 exactly like

00:40:22.940 it.

00:40:24.040 From just

00:40:25.220 an interested

00:40:27.560 observer's

00:40:28.560 point of

00:40:28.920 view,

00:40:30.140 it certainly

00:40:30.540 looks like it

00:40:31.200 was fraudulent

00:40:31.900 because if we

00:40:33.520 don't see that

00:40:34.100 level of

00:40:34.740 Democrat voters

00:40:35.820 in the next

00:40:37.160 election,

00:40:38.400 it's going to

00:40:39.020 be really

00:40:39.520 obvious that

00:40:41.220 that was a

00:40:41.740 one-off.

00:40:43.040 Yeah,

00:40:43.220 and then also

00:40:43.800 as Owen

00:40:44.380 was saying,

00:40:45.300 the bellwether

00:40:46.440 places were

00:40:47.640 all wrong.

00:40:48.860 Like,

00:40:49.140 all the

00:40:49.500 bellwethers

00:40:50.140 were sort

00:40:50.720 of opposite

00:40:51.240 of what

00:40:51.720 they should

00:40:52.100 have been.

00:40:54.880 So,

00:40:56.160 my bigger

00:40:57.000 question now,

00:40:58.100 you know,

00:40:58.780 is,

00:40:59.580 if Oklahoma

00:41:01.540 is teaching

00:41:02.900 a different

00:41:03.360 history than

00:41:04.700 the other

00:41:05.100 states,

00:41:06.300 how could

00:41:07.240 we ever

00:41:07.640 trust history?

00:41:09.560 And the

00:41:10.240 answer is,

00:41:10.880 we couldn't

00:41:11.720 and we

00:41:12.700 shouldn't.

00:41:13.740 I don't

00:41:14.400 think much

00:41:14.980 of our

00:41:15.300 American

00:41:15.680 history is

00:41:16.400 accurate.

00:41:16.820 You know,

00:41:18.380 I think I've

00:41:18.960 learned at

00:41:19.380 least two

00:41:19.960 different

00:41:20.340 versions of

00:41:21.680 every big

00:41:22.320 story of

00:41:22.960 America.

00:41:24.500 You know,

00:41:24.920 when I was

00:41:25.700 little,

00:41:26.640 I learned

00:41:27.460 that the

00:41:28.100 pilgrims and

00:41:29.780 the Iroquois

00:41:30.640 Indians,

00:41:31.460 they got

00:41:32.340 along great.

00:41:34.760 And Squanto,

00:41:36.180 the Iroquois

00:41:36.840 Indian,

00:41:38.160 taught us

00:41:39.040 how to put

00:41:40.360 an ear of

00:41:40.920 corn in

00:41:41.460 the hole

00:41:41.940 and,

00:41:42.560 you know,

00:41:43.100 a fish,

00:41:44.880 use a fish

00:41:45.640 as a fertilizer

00:41:46.480 in the

00:41:46.860 hole so

00:41:47.280 your corn

00:41:47.860 would grow

00:41:48.420 or something

00:41:48.820 like that.

00:41:49.880 And,

00:41:50.340 you know,

00:41:50.500 everybody got

00:41:51.080 along great.

00:41:53.400 Then you

00:41:53.880 get older

00:41:54.340 and you

00:41:54.700 read the

00:41:55.460 real versions,

00:41:57.020 you know,

00:41:57.260 with these

00:41:57.640 smallpox on

00:41:58.560 blankets and

00:42:00.340 Christopher Columbus

00:42:01.760 using the

00:42:02.520 locals as

00:42:03.280 cattle.

00:42:04.460 They would

00:42:05.140 actually ride

00:42:05.760 on their

00:42:06.100 backs.

00:42:07.160 They would

00:42:07.480 just enslave

00:42:08.220 them and

00:42:09.160 use them as

00:42:10.120 horses,

00:42:11.660 basically.

00:42:12.560 They would

00:42:12.840 just climb on

00:42:13.480 the backs of

00:42:14.040 the locals and

00:42:14.760 make the

00:42:15.100 locals trot

00:42:15.820 along.

00:42:18.000 I don't

00:42:18.620 even know

00:42:18.920 if that's

00:42:19.320 true,

00:42:19.620 but I

00:42:19.820 read it

00:42:20.200 in some

00:42:20.620 history book.

00:42:22.260 So,

00:42:22.980 if our

00:42:24.680 news is

00:42:25.420 obviously

00:42:25.940 fake,

00:42:27.120 how can

00:42:27.840 we possibly

00:42:28.580 have real

00:42:29.240 history?

00:42:30.700 It's not

00:42:31.380 possible.

00:42:32.400 We can

00:42:32.800 never have

00:42:33.200 real history

00:42:33.780 if our

00:42:34.240 news is

00:42:34.740 fake,

00:42:35.580 because the

00:42:36.000 history comes

00:42:36.680 out of the

00:42:37.060 news,

00:42:37.360 right?

00:42:40.660 Well,

00:42:41.300 there's now

00:42:41.880 even more

00:42:42.840 internal

00:42:43.440 Democrat

00:42:44.180 on

00:42:44.440 Democrat

00:42:44.880 hate.

00:42:46.200 So,

00:42:46.480 there's

00:42:46.820 an

00:42:47.140 ex-Nancy

00:42:48.080 Pelosi

00:42:48.500 advisor who

00:42:49.500 also worked

00:42:50.960 as a

00:42:52.420 comms

00:42:53.600 person for

00:42:54.320 Kamala Harris

00:42:55.200 and worked

00:42:56.120 for Obama

00:42:56.700 at one

00:42:57.060 point.

00:42:58.220 And so,

00:42:58.560 somebody who

00:42:59.080 is really,

00:43:00.500 you know,

00:43:01.840 really,

00:43:02.760 what would

00:43:03.620 you say,

00:43:03.960 really connected

00:43:04.740 in the

00:43:05.620 Democrat

00:43:05.940 world,

00:43:06.820 Ashley

00:43:07.240 Etienne.

00:43:07.820 and she

00:43:08.160 was on

00:43:08.460 a podcast

00:43:09.140 for

00:43:09.520 Politico's

00:43:10.940 playbook

00:43:11.760 deep dive, 0.95

00:43:12.840 and she

00:43:13.780 went after

00:43:14.420 Hakeem

00:43:15.420 Jeffries

00:43:15.880 for his

00:43:17.220 lack of

00:43:17.940 leadership

00:43:18.340 skills.

00:43:20.360 And I

00:43:21.980 thought,

00:43:22.600 well,

00:43:23.520 why did

00:43:23.820 that take

00:43:24.220 them so

00:43:24.640 long?

00:43:25.300 Every time

00:43:25.980 I see

00:43:26.380 Hakeem

00:43:26.880 Jeffries

00:43:27.340 talking,

00:43:28.440 I think

00:43:28.840 to myself,

00:43:30.400 really?

00:43:32.100 That's sort

00:43:32.920 of the best

00:43:33.440 talker they

00:43:34.100 got?

00:43:34.420 Of all

00:43:36.220 the people

00:43:36.620 in the

00:43:36.920 world that

00:43:37.480 they could

00:43:37.820 have picked

00:43:38.260 to be

00:43:38.820 their main,

00:43:40.200 sort of a

00:43:40.760 main voice,

00:43:42.620 they picked

00:43:43.140 him?

00:43:44.020 Because he

00:43:44.660 doesn't seem

00:43:45.260 very good at

00:43:45.980 what he

00:43:46.260 does.

00:43:47.180 Like,

00:43:47.360 the things

00:43:48.940 he said

00:43:49.380 are just

00:43:49.740 sort of

00:43:50.140 obvious,

00:43:51.060 just talking

00:43:51.800 points.

00:43:52.500 All he

00:43:52.800 does is

00:43:53.140 repeat

00:43:53.460 talking

00:43:53.840 points.

00:43:54.640 And I

00:43:54.940 think that's

00:43:55.320 the same

00:43:55.640 thing that

00:43:56.040 Ashley

00:43:56.400 Etienne is

00:43:57.160 saying,

00:43:57.940 that he's

00:43:58.180 just not

00:43:58.620 really adding

00:43:59.160 much.

00:44:00.820 And I

00:44:01.660 wonder if

00:44:02.040 that's enough

00:44:02.620 for them to

00:44:03.400 actually make

00:44:03.940 a change.

00:44:05.540 And my

00:44:05.940 guess is,

00:44:07.000 nope,

00:44:07.800 I don't

00:44:08.320 think it's

00:44:08.680 enough to

00:44:09.040 make a

00:44:09.300 change.

00:44:10.860 So they've

00:44:11.660 got the

00:44:12.100 worst

00:44:12.840 leadership,

00:44:14.780 Schumer,

00:44:16.220 Hakeem

00:44:16.680 Jeffries,

00:44:18.100 Pelosi is

00:44:18.860 now a

00:44:19.200 thousand years

00:44:19.840 old,

00:44:20.720 and I

00:44:22.660 don't think

00:44:23.220 they have

00:44:23.640 the ability

00:44:24.180 to change

00:44:24.780 them.

00:44:25.660 In some

00:44:26.260 cases,

00:44:26.800 because there's

00:44:27.340 a DEI

00:44:27.960 thing,

00:44:28.780 in other

00:44:29.160 cases,

00:44:29.800 because somebody

00:44:30.740 has been

00:44:31.060 there so

00:44:31.500 long that

00:44:32.040 they have

00:44:32.360 too much

00:44:32.800 power and

00:44:33.360 control.

00:44:34.940 They are

00:44:35.820 in real

00:44:36.340 trouble.

00:44:38.720 Here's the

00:44:39.580 least surprising

00:44:41.000 update.

00:44:43.680 A federal

00:44:44.280 judge has

00:44:45.000 ruled.

00:44:48.200 Can we

00:44:49.080 go one

00:44:49.960 day without

00:44:51.220 me having

00:44:51.760 to tell you

00:44:52.540 a story that

00:44:53.200 starts with,

00:44:54.380 a federal

00:44:54.940 judge has

00:44:55.720 ruled,

00:44:56.520 and you

00:44:57.040 know that

00:44:57.400 whatever comes

00:44:58.060 after that

00:44:58.600 you're not

00:44:58.960 going to

00:44:59.140 like.

00:44:59.420 a federal

00:45:01.140 judge has

00:45:01.760 ruled that

00:45:03.640 Trump's

00:45:04.060 executive

00:45:04.480 order going

00:45:05.580 after Perkins

00:45:06.600 Cooey,

00:45:07.340 the law

00:45:08.260 firm that

00:45:08.780 was doing

00:45:10.560 some bad

00:45:11.140 behavior,

00:45:11.860 according to

00:45:12.340 the Trump

00:45:12.760 administration,

00:45:13.940 that going

00:45:15.200 after them

00:45:15.720 and taking

00:45:16.080 away their,

00:45:16.800 I guess,

00:45:18.820 their security

00:45:20.480 clearance is

00:45:21.920 unconstitutional

00:45:22.880 and permanently

00:45:24.220 blocked.

00:45:24.780 now,

00:45:26.960 wouldn't you

00:45:28.400 expect that

00:45:29.820 a law firm

00:45:30.760 as capable

00:45:31.620 and powerful

00:45:32.320 as Perkins

00:45:33.160 Cooey could 0.99

00:45:34.660 find at least

00:45:35.420 one judge

00:45:36.260 to,

00:45:38.100 to,

00:45:38.780 what just

00:45:40.100 happened?

00:45:40.440 hold on,

00:45:41.420 my light

00:45:41.840 just went

00:45:42.220 off.

00:45:48.640 Bank more

00:45:49.460 encores when

00:45:50.300 you switch to

00:45:50.860 a Scotiabank

00:45:51.580 banking package.

00:45:53.160 Learn more

00:45:54.000 at scotiabank.com

00:45:55.200 slash banking

00:45:55.940 packages.

00:45:56.900 Conditions

00:45:57.200 apply.

00:45:58.700 Scotiabank,

00:45:59.440 you're richer

00:45:59.900 than you think.

00:46:04.780 That was

00:46:05.540 weird.

00:46:07.200 Don't you

00:46:07.900 think that

00:46:08.420 a high-powered

00:46:09.560 legal firm

00:46:10.780 that would

00:46:11.080 be connected

00:46:11.720 to everybody

00:46:12.380 could shop

00:46:13.460 for a judge

00:46:14.160 and find

00:46:14.640 at least

00:46:15.040 one judge

00:46:15.740 who would

00:46:16.660 say,

00:46:17.080 no,

00:46:17.320 that order

00:46:17.840 against us

00:46:18.520 is all

00:46:19.140 illegal.

00:46:20.100 Well,

00:46:20.520 they did.

00:46:21.640 It's the

00:46:22.260 least surprising

00:46:23.160 thing you'll

00:46:23.840 ever see

00:46:24.300 in the news.

00:46:25.320 Do you

00:46:25.600 think they're

00:46:25.980 done?

00:46:26.660 No.

00:46:27.740 Perkins

00:46:28.180 Cooey is

00:46:28.940 very powerful.

00:46:30.780 So,

00:46:31.080 maybe on

00:46:31.560 day one

00:46:32.020 they took

00:46:32.480 a hit

00:46:32.920 when Trump

00:46:33.860 surprised them

00:46:34.840 by trying

00:46:35.560 to take away

00:46:36.100 their access

00:46:36.740 and stuff.

00:46:37.840 But,

00:46:38.520 you knew

00:46:39.080 that they

00:46:39.420 were going

00:46:39.740 to gather

00:46:41.900 up and

00:46:42.700 come up

00:46:43.180 with a plan

00:46:43.800 and it

00:46:44.280 wouldn't be

00:46:44.680 a bad

00:46:45.100 plan.

00:46:45.980 Because they

00:46:46.620 didn't get

00:46:47.020 to be

00:46:47.340 Perkins

00:46:47.820 Cooey

00:46:48.300 unless they

00:46:49.460 were really

00:46:49.960 good at

00:46:50.420 stuff,

00:46:51.360 especially

00:46:52.560 in the

00:46:53.040 legal domain.

00:46:54.600 So,

00:46:54.900 of course,

00:46:55.740 they were

00:46:56.000 going to

00:46:56.220 come back

00:46:56.700 strong.

00:46:58.000 And there

00:46:58.640 it is.

00:46:59.620 Looks like

00:47:00.120 they win.

00:47:00.560 And it

00:47:04.580 turns out

00:47:05.000 that CBS

00:47:05.520 News,

00:47:06.740 complete

00:47:07.200 coincidence

00:47:07.740 here.

00:47:08.940 Listen to

00:47:09.360 this

00:47:09.560 coincidence.

00:47:10.820 CBS

00:47:11.120 News is

00:47:11.800 planning to

00:47:12.320 run a

00:47:12.640 segment

00:47:12.980 on 60

00:47:14.580 Minutes

00:47:14.960 about

00:47:15.300 President

00:47:15.880 Trump

00:47:16.320 targeting

00:47:16.900 law

00:47:17.300 firms

00:47:17.720 and other

00:47:19.440 enemies.

00:47:20.580 Oh,

00:47:21.020 do you

00:47:21.320 think that

00:47:21.700 they were

00:47:22.000 planning to

00:47:22.600 do that

00:47:23.040 anyway?

00:47:24.160 Or is

00:47:24.940 it possible

00:47:25.620 that Perkins

00:47:26.580 Cooey or

00:47:27.400 somebody who

00:47:28.080 has allied

00:47:28.720 with them

00:47:29.160 said,

00:47:30.240 you know,

00:47:30.840 hey CBS,

00:47:32.420 you know,

00:47:32.800 it would be

00:47:33.060 a good

00:47:33.380 story if

00:47:34.980 you did

00:47:35.280 a story

00:47:35.740 about how

00:47:36.240 Trump is

00:47:36.800 targeting

00:47:37.340 the law

00:47:37.880 firms.

00:47:39.220 Now,

00:47:39.920 I don't

00:47:40.640 have any

00:47:41.100 information

00:47:41.620 that says

00:47:42.140 Perkins

00:47:42.640 Cooey is

00:47:43.320 behind CBS's

00:47:44.860 decision,

00:47:46.200 but wouldn't

00:47:47.640 that be good

00:47:48.260 lawyering if

00:47:49.040 they were?

00:47:50.800 And they're

00:47:51.520 good lawyers?

00:47:52.680 You don't

00:47:53.280 think that

00:47:53.880 there was

00:47:54.560 even one

00:47:55.200 person that

00:47:55.820 Perkins

00:47:56.220 Cooey who

00:47:56.840 could get

00:47:57.280 to somebody

00:47:57.920 who was

00:47:58.780 a decision

00:47:59.320 maker at

00:47:59.880 CBS and

00:48:00.780 say,

00:48:01.580 hey,

00:48:01.960 if you

00:48:03.000 do this

00:48:03.440 story,

00:48:04.000 you know,

00:48:04.420 we're going

00:48:04.680 to open

00:48:05.040 our kimono

00:48:05.660 and we're

00:48:06.260 going to

00:48:06.360 have lots

00:48:06.740 of people

00:48:07.100 talk to

00:48:07.580 you and

00:48:08.140 we'll package

00:48:09.400 up this

00:48:09.920 story so

00:48:10.480 you really

00:48:10.900 got a

00:48:11.200 winner.

00:48:12.840 I don't

00:48:13.480 know that

00:48:13.860 they did

00:48:14.240 that,

00:48:15.200 but they

00:48:15.900 would be

00:48:16.260 the kind

00:48:16.920 of highly

00:48:17.380 capable

00:48:17.920 lawyers who

00:48:19.340 should know

00:48:19.940 that they

00:48:20.440 should do

00:48:20.920 that.

00:48:21.760 I mean,

00:48:22.000 it would

00:48:22.200 be a good

00:48:22.620 play.

00:48:23.700 So if

00:48:24.140 they didn't

00:48:24.620 do it,

00:48:25.580 they're sure

00:48:26.040 getting

00:48:26.320 lucky and

00:48:28.420 I don't

00:48:28.760 believe in

00:48:29.200 that much

00:48:29.580 luck.

00:48:31.020 So again,

00:48:32.680 if you

00:48:33.820 thought that

00:48:34.300 Perkins

00:48:34.740 Cooey was

00:48:35.420 just going

00:48:35.820 to roll

00:48:36.240 over and

00:48:36.780 take the

00:48:37.160 loss,

00:48:38.160 no,

00:48:38.520 that's not

00:48:38.900 how that

00:48:39.300 works.

00:48:40.200 They were

00:48:40.540 going to

00:48:40.800 regroup and

00:48:41.660 come back

00:48:42.120 stronger and

00:48:43.580 boy,

00:48:43.980 did they.

00:48:44.300 do it.

00:48:46.360 But we

00:48:47.000 don't know

00:48:47.340 if they

00:48:47.580 influenced

00:48:48.020 the CBS

00:48:48.660 news.

00:48:50.620 It just

00:48:51.400 looks like a

00:48:51.980 weird coincidence

00:48:52.660 if you know

00:48:53.240 what I mean.

00:48:55.260 So I

00:48:56.040 saw some

00:48:56.660 long thread

00:48:58.260 inspired by

00:48:59.840 Mike Benz,

00:49:00.860 but put

00:49:01.220 together by

00:49:01.820 Data

00:49:02.180 Republican,

00:49:03.180 who you

00:49:04.300 should follow

00:49:04.820 next,

00:49:05.480 Data

00:49:05.740 Republican.

00:49:07.740 And it's

00:49:09.280 a story

00:49:09.680 about how

00:49:10.220 all these

00:49:10.900 NGOs

00:49:11.680 came into

00:49:13.520 being.

00:49:15.300 And the

00:49:15.920 story is

00:49:16.420 that George

00:49:16.940 Soros 0.94

00:49:17.600 wrote a

00:49:18.380 document and

00:49:19.120 he laid

00:49:19.540 out 30

00:49:20.160 years ago

00:49:20.900 how NATO

00:49:22.300 should

00:49:23.040 transform

00:49:23.880 from a

00:49:24.780 fighting the

00:49:25.880 Soviet Union,

00:49:26.860 which was

00:49:27.260 going on a

00:49:27.760 business,

00:49:28.540 to some

00:49:30.060 kind of a

00:49:30.680 open society

00:49:31.740 promoting

00:49:32.640 entity.

00:49:35.380 And that

00:49:36.240 it would be

00:49:36.680 done mostly

00:49:37.600 with things

00:49:39.380 that look

00:49:39.900 like non-military

00:49:40.900 things.

00:49:41.680 In other

00:49:42.380 words,

00:49:42.800 NGOs and

00:49:43.760 other

00:49:44.180 charity

00:49:45.380 things.

00:49:46.700 And so

00:49:47.380 he laid

00:49:47.740 out what

00:49:49.380 we should

00:49:50.900 be doing

00:49:51.720 with the

00:49:53.040 West,

00:49:53.460 I guess,

00:49:53.780 the United

00:49:54.200 States and

00:49:54.760 NATO.

00:49:55.780 And what

00:49:56.060 NATO should 0.97

00:49:57.620 be doing,

00:49:58.180 according to

00:49:58.780 Soros,

00:49:59.400 again,

00:49:59.740 this is 30

00:50:00.340 years ago,

00:50:02.300 is not so

00:50:03.320 much focusing

00:50:04.080 on war,

00:50:05.400 because the

00:50:06.420 threat of war,

00:50:07.360 at least with

00:50:07.760 the Soviet

00:50:08.120 Union,

00:50:08.640 was much

00:50:09.360 smaller.

00:50:09.740 after the

00:50:10.720 Soviet Union

00:50:11.400 was falling

00:50:12.880 apart.

00:50:14.380 And instead,

00:50:15.900 it should be

00:50:16.500 to reshape

00:50:17.440 other countries

00:50:18.420 into this

00:50:19.400 so-called

00:50:19.900 open society.

00:50:21.760 Because if

00:50:22.800 you got

00:50:23.700 rid of the

00:50:24.280 populists,

00:50:26.300 and even

00:50:26.860 then they knew

00:50:27.440 that populists

00:50:28.260 were the

00:50:28.600 problem,

00:50:29.380 and they

00:50:29.880 said that

00:50:30.280 populists,

00:50:31.040 like Trump,

00:50:32.260 were the

00:50:32.860 problem because

00:50:33.600 they needed

00:50:34.160 an enemy.

00:50:34.820 Now,

00:50:36.440 I'm not

00:50:36.720 sure that's

00:50:37.240 true in

00:50:38.660 Trump's

00:50:39.360 world,

00:50:39.860 except for

00:50:40.360 maybe

00:50:40.720 immigration,

00:50:42.040 but that's

00:50:42.320 not really

00:50:42.700 an enemy

00:50:43.220 situation

00:50:43.900 per se.

00:50:46.700 So that

00:50:47.420 wherever there

00:50:48.020 was a

00:50:48.280 country that

00:50:48.820 had a

00:50:49.300 populist

00:50:49.980 leader,

00:50:50.960 they would

00:50:51.320 try to

00:50:51.660 use their

00:50:52.340 non-military

00:50:53.800 power to

00:50:54.860 get rid of

00:50:55.260 the populists

00:50:55.960 and put in

00:50:56.920 place a

00:50:57.480 system that

00:50:58.780 would be

00:50:59.180 resistant to

00:51:00.260 populists.

00:51:01.000 and here's

00:51:04.300 what the

00:51:05.140 open society

00:51:06.160 should look

00:51:06.720 like.

00:51:07.700 Now,

00:51:07.940 this is in

00:51:08.480 concept.

00:51:09.240 It's not

00:51:09.780 the real

00:51:10.520 world.

00:51:11.560 But in

00:51:11.920 concept,

00:51:12.720 the open

00:51:13.200 society that

00:51:14.140 Soros wanted 0.98

00:51:15.040 all these

00:51:15.560 other countries

00:51:16.260 to follow

00:51:17.720 would be

00:51:18.160 they should

00:51:18.500 be democracies

00:51:19.600 with free

00:51:20.320 markets,

00:51:21.260 civil rights,

00:51:22.180 minority

00:51:22.540 protections,

00:51:24.040 transparency,

00:51:25.160 and a

00:51:25.580 global

00:51:26.940 rules-based

00:51:27.880 order.

00:51:28.260 Now,

00:51:30.980 I don't

00:51:31.180 know if

00:51:31.500 that's

00:51:31.740 anything

00:51:32.140 close to

00:51:33.300 how things

00:51:34.180 are playing

00:51:34.580 out in

00:51:34.920 the real

00:51:35.200 world,

00:51:35.820 but they

00:51:36.680 needed to

00:51:37.420 avoid

00:51:37.800 nationalism.

00:51:38.820 I'll say

00:51:39.420 nationalism

00:51:40.000 instead of

00:51:40.780 populism.

00:51:42.200 So he

00:51:42.600 was railing

00:51:43.200 against

00:51:43.660 nationalism

00:51:44.640 because

00:51:45.760 nationalism

00:51:46.400 is the

00:51:47.640 one that

00:51:48.140 attracts

00:51:49.020 enemies,

00:51:49.860 basically,

00:51:50.680 or at

00:51:51.300 least identifies

00:51:52.120 as somebody

00:51:52.660 else's

00:51:53.060 enemy.

00:51:54.840 And he

00:51:55.840 thought that

00:51:56.980 the open

00:51:57.480 society

00:51:58.040 should be

00:51:58.660 sort of

00:51:59.040 dominated

00:51:59.540 by outside

00:52:00.380 forces and

00:52:01.120 elites.

00:52:02.400 I think

00:52:03.120 that's an

00:52:03.540 interpretation.

00:52:05.220 But here's

00:52:05.880 a Soros

00:52:06.500 quote that

00:52:07.660 Data Republican

00:52:08.380 is giving

00:52:08.900 us.

00:52:10.940 Combating

00:52:11.680 closed

00:52:12.500 societies

00:52:13.140 involves the

00:52:14.080 building of

00:52:14.640 democratic

00:52:15.140 states and

00:52:16.000 open societies

00:52:16.940 and embedding

00:52:18.340 in them

00:52:18.840 a structure

00:52:20.040 which precludes

00:52:21.300 certain kinds

00:52:22.060 of behavior.

00:52:25.940 Embedding

00:52:26.760 in them

00:52:27.280 a structure

00:52:29.360 that precludes

00:52:30.420 certain kinds

00:52:31.120 of behavior.

00:52:32.760 Would that

00:52:33.560 be something

00:52:34.040 like building

00:52:34.800 some kind

00:52:38.220 of an

00:52:38.620 anti-free

00:52:39.440 speech

00:52:40.180 censorship

00:52:41.620 mechanism

00:52:43.440 that affects

00:52:44.280 a whole bunch

00:52:44.820 of different

00:52:45.240 countries from

00:52:46.060 the outside

00:52:46.560 but also

00:52:47.220 from the

00:52:47.640 inside?

00:52:48.020 I think it

00:52:49.680 would.

00:52:49.980 So the

00:52:51.400 censorship

00:52:52.200 stuff that

00:52:53.440 a lot of

00:52:53.780 the NGOs

00:52:54.360 were involved

00:52:55.140 in

00:52:55.460 seem like

00:52:57.540 it fits

00:52:58.400 into this

00:52:58.940 category of

00:52:59.680 a structure

00:53:00.340 that precludes

00:53:01.340 certain kinds

00:53:02.000 of behavior.

00:53:03.520 In other

00:53:03.800 words,

00:53:04.380 anything that

00:53:05.320 Soros 0.94

00:53:07.420 doesn't want

00:53:08.360 to be said

00:53:08.940 out loud,

00:53:10.500 there would be

00:53:10.900 a mechanism,

00:53:12.360 a censorship

00:53:12.940 mechanism.

00:53:13.800 Now this is

00:53:14.800 my

00:53:15.140 extending the

00:53:16.460 argument.

00:53:16.780 This is

00:53:17.300 not coming

00:53:17.840 from

00:53:18.280 data

00:53:18.780 Republicans

00:53:19.320 specifically.

00:53:23.080 So all

00:53:23.940 these NGOs

00:53:24.820 would pop

00:53:25.780 up and

00:53:26.400 all they'd

00:53:26.760 have to do

00:53:27.160 is say,

00:53:27.580 hey,

00:53:27.680 we're part

00:53:28.100 of this

00:53:28.500 creating

00:53:29.880 these

00:53:30.240 countries

00:53:30.680 being less

00:53:31.700 nationalism

00:53:32.340 and more

00:53:34.000 open societies

00:53:35.000 and we'll

00:53:36.980 put some

00:53:37.700 mechanisms in

00:53:38.660 place that

00:53:39.180 can control

00:53:39.900 them directly

00:53:41.540 or indirectly.

00:53:44.060 And that

00:53:44.880 the new

00:53:45.220 purpose of

00:53:45.780 NATO was

00:53:46.420 to assimilate

00:53:47.100 countries as

00:53:47.940 open societies.

00:53:50.140 So that's

00:53:50.940 what Soros

00:53:51.720 was pushing

00:53:52.300 30 years

00:53:52.940 ago.

00:53:54.740 And it

00:53:57.640 was also

00:53:58.040 specifically

00:53:58.720 meant that

00:54:00.080 NATO would 0.64

00:54:00.680 try to

00:54:01.260 expand its

00:54:02.260 presence

00:54:02.720 eastward and

00:54:04.420 pick up

00:54:04.860 those ex-Soviet 0.99

00:54:06.340 bloc countries,

00:54:07.300 which it

00:54:07.640 did.

00:54:08.560 So it's

00:54:09.240 exactly what

00:54:09.860 we saw.

00:54:11.080 So the

00:54:14.060 open society

00:54:14.880 was something

00:54:15.520 that the

00:54:15.960 unit party

00:54:16.680 agreed on.

00:54:17.980 It was

00:54:18.340 basically a

00:54:19.100 way to

00:54:19.460 conquer

00:54:20.060 other

00:54:20.480 countries,

00:54:21.500 but make

00:54:22.700 it look

00:54:23.060 like it

00:54:23.540 was more

00:54:23.940 of a

00:54:24.180 natural

00:54:24.640 outcome

00:54:25.400 instead of

00:54:26.000 a war.

00:54:27.040 You would

00:54:27.440 conquer them

00:54:28.120 with,

00:54:28.580 you know,

00:54:30.040 influence,

00:54:30.660 basically.

00:54:31.520 Money and

00:54:32.060 influence.

00:54:32.580 and as

00:54:36.640 data

00:54:37.560 Republican

00:54:38.040 points out,

00:54:39.320 this isn't

00:54:39.900 just

00:54:40.140 theoretical.

00:54:42.080 There are

00:54:43.060 some

00:54:43.220 examples.

00:54:43.860 In 1994,

00:54:44.940 the partnership

00:54:45.580 for peace

00:54:46.300 launched.

00:54:46.940 In 99,

00:54:47.740 NATO admitted

00:54:48.400 Poland,

00:54:49.280 Hungary,

00:54:50.320 Czech Republic.

00:54:51.260 2004,

00:54:52.780 NATO brought 0.92

00:54:53.800 in Estonia,

00:54:54.760 Latvia,

00:54:55.420 Lithuania,

00:54:56.000 Romania,

00:54:56.540 Bulgaria.

00:54:56.960 2008 to

00:54:58.420 2022,

00:55:00.500 you brought

00:55:01.140 in,

00:55:02.140 well,

00:55:02.380 tried to

00:55:02.740 bring in

00:55:03.120 Ukraine and

00:55:04.500 Georgia,

00:55:05.100 but they

00:55:05.720 didn't make

00:55:06.340 it.

00:55:07.280 And in

00:55:07.680 2023,

00:55:08.600 Finland joins.

00:55:11.680 And then

00:55:12.460 as data

00:55:12.920 Republican,

00:55:13.640 I asked,

00:55:14.000 why did

00:55:14.300 everybody go

00:55:14.980 along with

00:55:15.540 it?

00:55:16.680 Like,

00:55:17.040 how do you

00:55:17.640 get so many

00:55:18.220 people to get

00:55:19.000 on board with

00:55:19.720 a plan like

00:55:20.420 this?

00:55:21.220 And the

00:55:21.480 answer is

00:55:21.960 that the

00:55:22.260 amount of

00:55:22.640 money involved

00:55:23.420 was enormous.

00:55:25.760 So everybody

00:55:26.720 could figure

00:55:27.280 out how to

00:55:27.760 get a taste.

00:55:28.820 It's like,

00:55:29.220 well,

00:55:30.200 if I go

00:55:30.700 along with

00:55:31.240 this,

00:55:32.460 I could

00:55:32.800 start an

00:55:33.460 NGO or

00:55:34.520 I could

00:55:34.860 work on

00:55:35.440 one and

00:55:36.220 there's all

00:55:36.800 this money

00:55:37.220 slopping

00:55:37.780 around.

00:55:38.840 I could

00:55:39.200 get me

00:55:39.520 some of

00:55:39.840 that money.

00:55:40.880 So pretty

00:55:41.440 much money

00:55:42.140 was behind

00:55:43.320 it all.

00:55:45.700 So I

00:55:46.380 don't know

00:55:46.580 if that helps

00:55:47.100 you understand

00:55:47.900 how we got

00:55:48.400 to where we

00:55:48.860 are,

00:55:49.160 but it

00:55:49.700 helped me.

00:55:51.400 David Sachs

00:55:52.140 had an

00:55:52.480 interesting

00:55:52.880 post about

00:55:53.980 how quickly

00:55:54.720 AI would

00:55:55.700 improve.

00:55:57.220 Now,

00:55:57.600 some smart

00:55:58.320 people disagreed

00:55:59.200 with him,

00:55:59.620 but he was

00:56:01.040 talking about

00:56:01.600 how by the

00:56:03.820 end of the

00:56:04.420 Trump

00:56:04.720 administration,

00:56:06.100 assuming he

00:56:06.860 just goes

00:56:07.340 four years

00:56:08.400 this time,

00:56:09.660 that the

00:56:11.280 models themselves

00:56:12.140 would be

00:56:12.500 100 times

00:56:13.100 better,

00:56:14.120 and that

00:56:14.420 would be a

00:56:14.840 normal

00:56:15.160 compounding

00:56:15.960 rate from

00:56:16.560 what we've

00:56:17.140 seen.

00:56:18.160 The chips

00:56:18.820 would be 100

00:56:19.420 times better,

00:56:20.240 and the

00:56:20.500 data centers

00:56:21.280 would have

00:56:23.500 100 times

00:56:24.120 more chips

00:56:24.700 for a

00:56:25.580 total increase

00:56:26.380 if you take

00:56:26.880 all these

00:56:27.240 hundreds,

00:56:27.820 100 times

00:56:28.440 100 times

00:56:29.060 hundreds,

00:56:29.640 you get to

00:56:30.580 a million

00:56:31.200 times more

00:56:31.940 artificial

00:56:32.660 intelligence,

00:56:34.160 a million

00:56:35.440 times more.

00:56:37.840 So whatever

00:56:38.600 you think

00:56:39.220 is how

00:56:40.200 awesome

00:56:40.720 AI is,

00:56:42.560 by the end

00:56:43.820 of the

00:56:44.080 Trump

00:56:44.320 administration,

00:56:45.660 it could be

00:56:46.960 a million

00:56:47.760 times stronger

00:56:49.140 than what

00:56:49.640 we see,

00:56:50.480 a million

00:56:51.100 times.

00:56:52.520 Now,

00:56:53.360 some critics,

00:56:54.720 and I might

00:56:55.260 be one of

00:56:55.700 them,

00:56:56.640 will say

00:56:57.160 something like,

00:56:58.060 yeah, but the

00:56:58.680 other possibility

00:56:59.320 is that AI

00:57:00.420 has already

00:57:00.980 plateaued.

00:57:02.620 Now, it's

00:57:03.640 still getting

00:57:04.060 better, you

00:57:05.160 know, in a

00:57:05.460 whole bunch of

00:57:05.920 different ways,

00:57:06.520 languages, but

00:57:07.440 the large

00:57:08.760 language models

00:57:09.720 might have

00:57:10.540 some kind

00:57:11.120 of a limit.

00:57:12.380 You know,

00:57:12.520 once you've

00:57:13.060 trained it

00:57:14.200 every way

00:57:14.680 you can

00:57:15.020 train it,

00:57:17.160 you know,

00:57:17.380 maybe from

00:57:18.160 that point

00:57:18.620 the benefits

00:57:19.320 are a little

00:57:19.820 bit slower,

00:57:20.980 you know,

00:57:21.200 more normal

00:57:22.260 like regular

00:57:23.860 software.

00:57:24.800 We don't

00:57:25.540 know.

00:57:27.020 But I do

00:57:27.820 know that to

00:57:28.400 get to

00:57:29.000 the super

00:57:31.200 intelligence

00:57:31.840 that we're

00:57:33.080 warned about,

00:57:33.760 probably they

00:57:35.040 need to

00:57:35.520 invent some

00:57:37.160 new techniques,

00:57:38.200 not just

00:57:38.740 make the

00:57:39.220 current

00:57:39.580 techniques

00:57:40.060 faster.

00:57:41.300 So we'll

00:57:41.800 see if any

00:57:42.260 of that

00:57:42.520 happens.

00:57:43.180 But it's

00:57:44.320 going to be

00:57:44.600 a crazy

00:57:45.160 world.

00:57:45.960 Apparently

00:57:46.340 Google says

00:57:48.100 that 30% 0.79

00:57:49.020 of all their

00:57:49.660 computer code

00:57:50.480 is now being

00:57:50.980 written by

00:57:51.460 AI.

00:57:52.820 But I'll

00:57:53.460 bet they

00:57:53.760 still need

00:57:54.740 the real

00:57:55.220 physical

00:57:55.800 programmers.

00:57:57.160 So I

00:57:58.080 don't know

00:57:58.320 how long

00:57:58.720 it's going

00:57:59.120 to be

00:57:59.300 before that

00:57:59.760 goes away.

00:58:00.580 When I

00:58:00.740 found out

00:58:01.160 my friend

00:58:01.640 got a great

00:58:02.300 deal on a

00:58:02.940 wool coat

00:58:03.340 from Winners,

00:58:04.200 I started

00:58:04.960 wondering,

00:58:05.860 is every

00:58:06.680 fabulous item

00:58:07.460 I see from

00:58:08.140 Winners?

00:58:09.000 Like that

00:58:09.480 woman over 0.99

00:58:09.960 there with

00:58:10.440 the designer

00:58:10.860 jeans.

00:58:11.700 Are those

00:58:12.280 from Winners?

00:58:13.220 Ooh,

00:58:13.860 or those

00:58:14.180 beautiful gold

00:58:14.800 earrings?

00:58:15.660 Did she pay 0.97

00:58:16.100 full price?

00:58:17.020 Or that

00:58:17.280 leather tote?

00:58:18.040 Or that

00:58:18.300 cashmere

00:58:18.640 sweater?

00:58:19.220 Or those

00:58:19.560 knee-high

00:58:19.880 boots?

00:58:20.720 That dress?

00:58:21.500 That jacket?

00:58:22.180 Those shoes?

00:58:23.200 Is anyone

00:58:23.980 paying full

00:58:24.620 price for

00:58:25.160 anything?

00:58:26.140 Stop

00:58:26.620 wondering.

00:58:27.420 Start

00:58:27.660 winning.

00:58:28.340 Winners.

00:58:28.940 Find

00:58:29.160 fabulous for

00:58:29.960 less.

00:58:30.760 According to

00:58:31.440 the Wall

00:58:31.740 Street Journal,

00:58:32.400 somebody in

00:58:35.880 China has 0.91

00:58:37.000 been asking.

00:58:38.620 It's the

00:58:39.060 Chinese Minister

00:58:39.960 for Public

00:58:40.540 Security.

00:58:41.980 And he's

00:58:42.420 been inquiring

00:58:43.160 what the

00:58:43.640 Trump

00:58:43.940 administration

00:58:44.600 expects on

00:58:46.800 the fentanyl

00:58:47.820 question.

00:58:49.180 Because China 0.94

00:58:50.360 is sort of

00:58:50.980 slowly preparing

00:58:52.340 to negotiate

00:58:53.060 trade, and

00:58:54.140 fentanyl was

00:58:54.960 one of the

00:58:55.740 things that

00:58:56.640 Trump laid

00:58:57.460 down as

00:58:58.000 important.

00:58:58.380 and so

00:59:00.560 allegedly,

00:59:01.740 according to

00:59:02.120 the Wall

00:59:02.420 Street Journal,

00:59:03.780 there's at

00:59:04.380 least one

00:59:04.840 person who's

00:59:05.460 in the

00:59:05.700 right kind

00:59:06.100 of job

00:59:06.640 who's

00:59:07.340 saying,

00:59:07.900 can you

00:59:08.640 tell us

00:59:09.060 more about

00:59:09.740 what you'd

00:59:10.940 expect us

00:59:11.600 to do?

00:59:13.120 Now, to

00:59:13.740 me, that

00:59:14.240 sounds like

00:59:14.900 they're getting

00:59:15.340 ready to

00:59:15.840 negotiate, and

00:59:17.040 they just

00:59:17.380 want to be

00:59:17.800 prepared.

00:59:18.280 And, according

00:59:22.760 to Fox

00:59:23.240 News, Beijing

00:59:26.220 has now

00:59:26.940 sort of laid

00:59:28.080 down the

00:59:28.600 following

00:59:29.020 condition, I

00:59:30.780 guess, that

00:59:32.020 they'd be

00:59:32.420 willing to

00:59:33.000 talk, so

00:59:34.340 they're, quote,

00:59:35.020 evaluating an

00:59:36.240 offer from

00:59:36.840 the U.S.

00:59:37.320 to hold

00:59:37.700 talks on

00:59:38.300 tariffs.

00:59:39.320 So, they're

00:59:40.060 not rejecting

00:59:40.700 it, they're

00:59:41.960 evaluating the

00:59:43.280 offer to

00:59:43.760 talk.

00:59:44.780 So, they

00:59:45.160 want to

00:59:45.500 act sort

00:59:46.920 of like

00:59:47.340 we're

00:59:49.140 wooing

00:59:49.580 them or

00:59:50.020 something.

00:59:50.760 So, they're

00:59:51.600 not coming

00:59:52.320 to the

00:59:52.620 table because

00:59:53.200 we're

00:59:53.520 bullying

00:59:53.880 them.

00:59:54.740 They're

00:59:55.260 coming to

00:59:55.660 the table

00:59:56.060 because we're

00:59:57.420 asking nicely,

00:59:58.640 and, you

00:59:59.080 know, they'll

00:59:59.720 consider it.

01:00:00.760 So, that's

01:00:01.420 the way they

01:00:01.820 want to

01:00:02.100 frame it.

01:00:03.680 So, as

01:00:04.360 long as

01:00:04.980 Trump starts

01:00:06.860 to talk

01:00:07.580 nicely to

01:00:08.220 them, it

01:00:08.760 looks like

01:00:09.260 they're

01:00:09.820 willing to

01:00:10.380 take baby

01:00:11.260 steps toward

01:00:12.120 negotiating,

01:00:13.280 because, of

01:00:13.600 course, they

01:00:13.920 have to.

01:00:16.280 So, I

01:00:16.880 think that's

01:00:17.260 going to

01:00:17.420 happen.

01:00:21.000 According to

01:00:22.000 Terrence

01:00:22.780 Cole, who

01:00:24.060 is Trump's

01:00:25.060 pick to

01:00:25.400 have the

01:00:26.180 DEA, he

01:00:27.680 told the

01:00:28.160 Senate Judiciary

01:00:29.060 Committee that

01:00:29.680 the cartels now

01:00:30.760 govern most of

01:00:31.840 Mexico.

01:00:33.420 And he claims

01:00:34.140 that the drug

01:00:34.760 lords aren't

01:00:35.360 just influencing

01:00:36.260 cops in the

01:00:37.060 military, they're

01:00:37.720 working with

01:00:38.320 them.

01:00:39.200 So, the

01:00:39.840 government and

01:00:41.420 the cartels are

01:00:42.400 basically

01:00:42.900 indistinguishable

01:00:44.020 now.

01:00:45.280 Okay.

01:00:47.080 So, if

01:00:48.160 you wondered

01:00:49.180 whether we

01:00:49.680 have to send

01:00:50.240 our military

01:00:50.980 down there to

01:00:51.820 take care of

01:00:53.100 business, it's

01:00:54.420 not going to

01:00:54.860 happen with the

01:00:55.440 Mexican military

01:00:56.400 unless they do

01:00:57.460 some, you

01:00:58.940 know, I think

01:00:59.380 they do some

01:00:59.900 fake outs

01:01:00.640 where they just

01:01:01.980 go after a

01:01:02.780 rival, you

01:01:04.180 know, the

01:01:04.580 weaker rival

01:01:05.740 cartel, and

01:01:07.280 then they tell

01:01:07.780 the United

01:01:08.180 States, look,

01:01:09.120 look, we're

01:01:10.280 doing things to

01:01:11.080 get rid of

01:01:11.520 drugs here.

01:01:12.080 We got rid

01:01:12.600 of, you

01:01:13.280 know, this

01:01:13.620 cartel.

01:01:15.020 But really,

01:01:15.840 they're just

01:01:16.180 working with

01:01:16.800 a stronger

01:01:17.280 cartel who

01:01:18.080 wanted to

01:01:18.500 get rid of

01:01:18.840 the competition.

01:01:19.940 I feel like

01:01:20.820 that's what's

01:01:21.340 happening.

01:01:22.340 So, we'll

01:01:22.980 see if Trump

01:01:23.540 can work his

01:01:24.160 way through

01:01:24.500 that.

01:01:25.820 Meanwhile,

01:01:26.620 according to

01:01:26.940 the Wall

01:01:27.160 Street Journal,

01:01:28.100 Columbia is

01:01:28.980 at a new

01:01:29.640 high in

01:01:30.140 making cocaine.

01:01:31.820 Do you

01:01:32.160 remember, it

01:01:33.820 wasn't that

01:01:34.320 long ago, when

01:01:35.480 our CIA and

01:01:37.120 the Colombian

01:01:38.120 government worked

01:01:39.680 together to go

01:01:41.060 after the

01:01:41.740 cocaine fields,

01:01:43.460 and they were

01:01:44.220 spraying them,

01:01:45.160 and they were

01:01:45.520 working hard to

01:01:46.280 arrest people,

01:01:47.140 and they

01:01:47.380 really, they

01:01:48.540 knocked down

01:01:49.100 the cocaine

01:01:49.880 production in

01:01:50.620 Columbia by

01:01:51.360 70% or

01:01:52.720 something.

01:01:53.140 It was quite

01:01:53.600 successful.

01:01:54.680 But there was

01:01:55.340 a lot of

01:01:55.640 pushback, and

01:01:58.160 ultimately, that

01:01:59.180 partnership fell

01:02:00.580 apart, and now

01:02:02.820 Columbia is

01:02:03.520 making so much

01:02:04.980 cocaine, because

01:02:07.520 they're getting

01:02:07.900 better at it, and

01:02:08.700 there's just more

01:02:09.240 of it, that

01:02:10.460 they need

01:02:11.540 special narco

01:02:13.580 submarines to

01:02:14.520 move it all.

01:02:16.020 So they've got

01:02:16.780 these semi-submarines

01:02:20.040 where the top of

01:02:21.880 it is still above

01:02:22.760 the water, but

01:02:23.960 it's very, very

01:02:24.840 shallow, and

01:02:25.680 doesn't look like

01:02:26.960 there's much going

01:02:27.600 on on the top,

01:02:29.000 but the rest of

01:02:29.900 it is underwater,

01:02:31.200 so it's harder

01:02:31.780 to spot.

01:02:33.040 And apparently,

01:02:33.740 one of these was

01:02:34.660 on the way from

01:02:35.560 Columbia to

01:02:37.020 Australia, and I

01:02:39.600 thought, really?

01:02:41.660 They have the

01:02:42.500 technology to

01:02:43.440 build a semi-submarine

01:02:46.160 that can take tons

01:02:47.400 of cocaine all the

01:02:48.520 way to Australia?

01:02:51.000 Now, it got

01:02:51.840 caught, but

01:02:52.820 apparently, they

01:02:53.420 make so much that

01:02:55.180 losing a few tons of

01:02:56.860 cocaine is no big

01:02:57.840 deal.

01:03:00.440 According to the

01:03:01.360 Jerusalem Post, the

01:03:04.060 U.S. is going to

01:03:05.060 withdraw some of

01:03:05.940 its efforts as

01:03:06.880 mediator in the

01:03:08.580 Ukraine-Russia

01:03:09.400 peace talks.

01:03:11.860 So, according to

01:03:13.120 Tammy Bruce, State

01:03:14.620 Department spokesperson,

01:03:17.240 she said that the

01:03:18.420 methodology for the

01:03:19.460 talks will change,

01:03:20.760 and that we will not

01:03:21.760 be the mediators.

01:03:23.360 So the U.S. is 0.61

01:03:24.520 kind of saying,

01:03:25.300 all right, we've done

01:03:26.140 what we can do.

01:03:28.480 Now you're going to

01:03:29.280 have to talk with

01:03:29.960 each other, or

01:03:30.680 nothing's going to

01:03:31.420 happen.

01:03:32.360 Because we were,

01:03:33.380 obviously, we knew

01:03:34.280 that neither of them

01:03:35.160 could make a deal

01:03:35.840 with each other by

01:03:37.800 talking to a third

01:03:38.700 party us.

01:03:40.340 That, you know,

01:03:41.240 maybe you could toss

01:03:42.560 down some ideas and

01:03:43.640 find out, you know,

01:03:45.040 where the guardrails

01:03:45.940 are and stuff like

01:03:46.720 that.

01:03:47.320 But you couldn't

01:03:48.140 really make a deal

01:03:49.220 by not talking to

01:03:51.500 the person you're

01:03:52.160 making a deal with.

01:03:53.800 So, since they were

01:03:55.100 not talking directly,

01:03:56.400 it looked like

01:03:57.100 nothing was going

01:03:57.800 to happen.

01:03:58.920 So Rubio, Marco

01:04:00.260 Rubio, told

01:04:01.100 reporters that the

01:04:03.060 U.S.

01:04:03.720 could not continue

01:04:04.560 to dedicate its

01:04:05.500 resources to talks

01:04:06.780 that would not

01:04:07.380 succeed.

01:04:09.520 So we're basically

01:04:10.580 pulling back.

01:04:12.120 So we got that

01:04:13.400 mineral deal signed,

01:04:15.140 which makes it look

01:04:16.780 like we have a

01:04:17.520 long-term economic

01:04:18.740 interest there.

01:04:20.500 I think we could

01:04:21.580 debate how real

01:04:22.580 that deal is and

01:04:23.540 how long it would

01:04:24.420 take before anybody

01:04:25.280 makes any money on

01:04:26.260 it.

01:04:26.420 that would be a

01:04:28.440 perfectly fair

01:04:30.060 conversation.

01:04:31.540 But I think

01:04:34.060 this would be a

01:04:35.060 test of my

01:04:35.660 predictive ability.

01:04:37.260 How many of you

01:04:38.180 remember me

01:04:38.940 predicting kind of

01:04:40.640 a while ago that

01:04:42.840 it didn't look like

01:04:43.840 either Russia or

01:04:46.040 Ukraine were

01:04:46.860 seriously interested

01:04:47.960 in peace?

01:04:49.360 And I predicted 0.61

01:04:50.600 that we would have

01:04:51.380 to step away

01:04:52.120 because they just

01:04:53.800 weren't serious.

01:04:54.500 well, there it is.

01:04:56.960 I don't know how

01:04:57.880 many other people

01:04:58.640 predicted that there

01:05:00.320 was no way that the

01:05:01.220 two of them were

01:05:01.800 going to be serious

01:05:02.940 about a deal, but

01:05:04.020 I got that one

01:05:04.920 right.

01:05:05.660 So if you keep

01:05:07.120 in score.

01:05:09.720 However, here's

01:05:11.840 some related news

01:05:13.040 that might be

01:05:13.860 important to it.

01:05:17.360 According to

01:05:18.060 New Atlas,

01:05:18.840 there's a new

01:05:19.500 drone company in

01:05:20.500 the United States

01:05:21.260 that claims,

01:05:23.260 and this claim

01:05:24.120 has not been

01:05:24.620 verified because

01:05:25.640 it's a big claim

01:05:26.620 that they can make

01:05:28.160 incredibly high

01:05:29.700 performance drones

01:05:30.780 in the United

01:05:31.640 States, and they

01:05:33.220 can make them for

01:05:34.140 a cost that's

01:05:35.440 competitive with

01:05:36.460 China's cost for

01:05:37.660 making drones.

01:05:39.360 Now, that's

01:05:39.860 quite a claim.

01:05:42.100 But that not only

01:05:43.980 would it be cost

01:05:45.080 competitive, but

01:05:45.980 it'll fly four times

01:05:47.740 longer, ten times

01:05:48.840 further, and ten times

01:05:50.040 quieter, and carry

01:05:51.040 five times more

01:05:51.880 payload.

01:05:53.740 So it's a

01:05:54.940 Silicon Valley

01:05:55.560 based company

01:05:56.860 called SciFly, and

01:05:59.200 of course, there

01:06:00.000 would be other

01:06:00.760 drone companies as

01:06:02.420 well.

01:06:03.240 So do you think

01:06:03.920 that's real?

01:06:04.900 There are some

01:06:05.740 skeptics who say,

01:06:07.000 we're going to have

01:06:08.120 to see this thing.

01:06:10.220 You know, we're not

01:06:11.240 going to take the

01:06:11.820 press release as

01:06:12.900 true.

01:06:13.780 We're going to need

01:06:14.580 to see this.

01:06:15.600 How in the world

01:06:16.500 do you make your

01:06:17.420 drone, how do

01:06:18.740 you make your

01:06:19.140 drone so cheaply?

01:06:20.820 It just doesn't

01:06:21.820 seem like that's

01:06:23.960 economically possible.

01:06:26.320 But maybe.

01:06:27.520 You know, maybe

01:06:28.180 they fully automated

01:06:29.320 it, and it's 3D

01:06:31.400 printers and a

01:06:32.280 couple of robot

01:06:32.900 arms, and you're

01:06:33.980 off to the races.

01:06:35.160 It could be.

01:06:37.180 Or it could be

01:06:38.320 vapor.

01:06:39.300 But here's what I

01:06:40.080 think.

01:06:40.880 I think the U.S.

01:06:41.880 has decided that

01:06:43.760 Ukraine is going to 0.96

01:06:44.680 be our drone

01:06:45.480 testing environment.

01:06:46.620 Now, Ukraine

01:06:48.700 itself is maybe

01:06:50.600 the, arguably,

01:06:53.340 could be the

01:06:54.340 foremost producers

01:06:55.460 of war drones,

01:06:58.020 because they sort

01:06:58.700 of had to develop

01:06:59.540 that.

01:07:00.260 Now, a lot of

01:07:00.720 theirs are, you

01:07:01.940 know, made in

01:07:03.400 garages, but

01:07:04.480 they've also

01:07:05.320 developed a drone

01:07:07.700 industry.

01:07:09.360 So Ukraine can 0.95

01:07:10.540 make a lot of

01:07:11.040 drones.

01:07:11.680 But of course,

01:07:13.080 if our drones

01:07:13.860 are better and

01:07:14.540 more deadly,

01:07:15.780 we're going to

01:07:16.620 they're probably

01:07:17.520 going to end up

01:07:18.040 in Ukraine.

01:07:19.060 And then we're

01:07:19.440 going to see how

01:07:19.920 well they work

01:07:20.560 against Russian 0.99

01:07:21.760 drones and

01:07:22.960 Russian anti-drones.

01:07:24.720 So I feel like

01:07:26.500 there's some

01:07:28.260 confidence that

01:07:29.580 Russia can be

01:07:30.380 held at bay with

01:07:32.120 massive drone

01:07:33.540 technology that's

01:07:35.380 really inevitable.

01:07:36.460 so this could be

01:07:39.040 part of the reason

01:07:39.720 that we can step

01:07:40.640 away, is that we

01:07:42.260 don't think the

01:07:43.000 front line is

01:07:43.820 going to change

01:07:44.360 that much.

01:07:45.060 And if it did

01:07:45.620 change that much,

01:07:46.540 the number of

01:07:47.680 drones would go up

01:07:48.600 by 100, and it

01:07:50.420 would change back.

01:07:52.400 So I think it's

01:07:54.600 the drone testing

01:07:55.560 ground from now

01:07:56.660 on, and that the

01:07:57.860 U.S. will 0.92

01:07:59.540 probably be greatly

01:08:00.480 advantaged by

01:08:02.400 testing their drones

01:08:03.560 in actual combat.

01:08:05.400 Because if you

01:08:06.060 don't test them

01:08:06.660 in actual combat,

01:08:07.720 you never really

01:08:08.480 know if you've

01:08:10.100 got a winner

01:08:10.580 drone.

01:08:11.560 You've got to

01:08:12.240 put it into the

01:08:13.340 actual fight.

01:08:14.780 And this is the

01:08:15.600 ideal actual fight

01:08:16.980 because it's Russia

01:08:17.820 on one side.

01:08:19.580 So Ukraine will 0.98

01:08:20.660 be a drone testing

01:08:21.620 environment, I think.

01:08:24.980 Well, Trump has

01:08:26.040 threatened to put

01:08:27.000 tariffs on, well,

01:08:29.720 actually, Lindsey

01:08:30.380 Graham is

01:08:31.120 co-sponsoring a

01:08:31.980 bill that would

01:08:32.420 put tariffs on

01:08:33.420 countries that

01:08:34.140 buy oil and gas

01:08:35.320 and other minerals

01:08:36.900 from Russia.

01:08:39.260 And so what's

01:08:40.660 missing in the

01:08:41.300 story is what

01:08:43.020 countries are

01:08:44.460 buying oil and

01:08:45.760 gas from Russia?

01:08:48.500 So I went to

01:08:49.580 Grok, and I asked

01:08:50.760 that question, and

01:08:52.280 the answer is

01:08:53.000 China, most of

01:08:54.220 it, or like half

01:08:55.560 of all their sales

01:08:57.080 are to China.

01:08:58.020 Boy, are they

01:08:58.460 beholden to China.

01:08:59.980 But also, a lot

01:09:02.020 of their sales of

01:09:03.460 oil and gas and

01:09:05.100 related stuff is

01:09:06.960 to India.

01:09:08.040 India is the 0.97

01:09:08.740 second biggest

01:09:09.380 buyer of Russian

01:09:10.480 energy.

01:09:13.520 And then Turkey, 0.55

01:09:15.520 so, you know,

01:09:16.700 already we have a

01:09:17.540 problem here.

01:09:19.100 Turkey

01:09:19.720 sparted NATO.

01:09:20.500 And then the

01:09:23.160 European Union,

01:09:24.880 17 billion of

01:09:27.340 LNG, Brazil,

01:09:29.260 Saudi, even 0.65

01:09:29.920 Saudi Arabia,

01:09:31.640 buys some kind

01:09:32.640 of specialty

01:09:33.380 kind of energy

01:09:34.940 from Russia that

01:09:35.980 I guess they

01:09:36.560 don't do in

01:09:37.140 Saudi Arabia.

01:09:38.820 And maybe the

01:09:39.920 UAE and South

01:09:41.120 Korea and Japan

01:09:41.880 and Taiwan.

01:09:43.060 And I'm thinking

01:09:43.620 to myself, when

01:09:45.380 you first read

01:09:46.220 Lindsey Graham

01:09:46.960 saying that, you

01:09:48.080 know, they're

01:09:48.340 going to put some

01:09:48.940 kind of tariffs

01:09:50.540 on countries

01:09:51.320 that buy from

01:09:52.180 Russia, if you're 0.87

01:09:53.940 not thinking

01:09:54.540 about which

01:09:55.240 countries those

01:09:56.160 are, it might

01:09:57.800 sound like a

01:09:58.420 good idea.

01:10:00.000 But we've

01:10:01.060 already, you

01:10:01.560 know, we're not

01:10:01.960 going to put,

01:10:02.480 you know, additional

01:10:03.400 tariffs on China.

01:10:05.980 Probably not.

01:10:08.120 And India is

01:10:09.820 an ally.

01:10:11.320 And you could

01:10:12.180 just go down

01:10:12.980 the line.

01:10:13.420 How in the

01:10:14.540 world are we

01:10:15.060 going to

01:10:15.360 tariff the

01:10:16.000 EU for

01:10:17.820 buying some

01:10:18.540 Russian energy?

01:10:19.760 I don't know.

01:10:20.580 That doesn't

01:10:21.060 seem real.

01:10:23.860 Well, after the

01:10:24.900 show, I told

01:10:25.640 you that Owen

01:10:26.660 Gregorian is

01:10:27.480 going to be

01:10:27.820 hosting a

01:10:28.580 Spaces on

01:10:29.760 X.

01:10:30.560 So this is the

01:10:31.740 end of my

01:10:32.300 prepared remarks.

01:10:33.760 I'm going to

01:10:34.000 talk to the

01:10:34.700 locals people,

01:10:35.860 but only briefly,

01:10:36.920 so I'll release

01:10:37.760 them to go to

01:10:39.480 the Spaces.

01:10:41.520 Hope you

01:10:42.140 enjoyed the

01:10:42.780 show.

01:10:43.500 Hope you

01:10:43.840 learned something

01:10:44.380 about Trump's

01:10:45.140 negotiating

01:10:45.900 techniques and

01:10:47.160 chaos equals

01:10:48.860 unpredictability.

01:10:51.940 And that's

01:10:53.660 it for today.

01:10:54.920 So look for

01:10:55.560 Owen Gregorian's

01:10:56.860 X feed.

01:10:58.360 He's going to

01:10:58.800 do a Spaces,

01:11:00.160 and they'll

01:11:00.680 continue the

01:11:01.560 conversation on

01:11:03.060 these topics and

01:11:03.960 more.

01:11:05.300 All right.

01:11:05.980 Locals, I'm

01:11:06.760 coming at you

01:11:07.300 privately, but

01:11:08.080 only very

01:11:08.780 briefly.

01:11:12.140 Cheers.

01:11:13.200 Cheers.

01:11:13.440 Cheers.

01:11:13.600 Cheers.

01:11:14.280 Cheers.

01:11:15.020 Beautiful.

01:11:15.360 Cheers.

01:11:16.080 Cheers.

01:11:16.720 Thanks.

01:11:17.940 Thanks.

01:11:18.400 Cheers.

01:11:19.240 Cheers.

01:11:19.500 Cheers.

01:11:20.900 Cheers.

01:11:22.180 Dionysicag.

01:11:25.760 Cheers.

01:11:28.620 Cheers.

01:11:29.620 Cheers.

01:11:30.500 Cheers.

01:11:31.960 Cheers.

01:11:32.680 Cheers.'

01:11:34.980 Cheers.

01:11:35.180 Cheers.

01:11:35.900 Cheers.

01:11:37.100 Cheers.

01:11:38.380 Cheers.

01:11:38.940 Cheers.

01:11:38.980 Cheers.

01:11:40.020 Cheers.

01:11:40.060 Cheers.

01:11:41.060 Cheers.

01:11:41.120 Cheers.

01:11:41.440 Thank you.

01:12:11.440 Thank you.

01:12:41.440 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - May 03, 2025

Episode 2828 CWSA 05⧸03⧸25

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