Episode 2832 CWSA 05⧸07⧸25
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 25 minutes
Words per Minute
134.32678
Summary
Everything seems to be going President Trump's way suddenly, but what does that mean for the rest of the world? Is it about trade deals, the Middle East, Iran, the stock market and much more!
Transcript
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good day ad stock market is up so it's a good day to check your stocks
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let's get our uh show going here get the comments working
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good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of human civilization it's called
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coffee with scott adams and you've never had a better time but if you'd like to take a chance
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on taking it up to the levels that nobody can even understand with their tiny shiny human brains all
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unparalleled pleasure the dopamine at the end of the day the thing that makes everything better
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it's called the simultaneous sip and it's going to happen right now go
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that's good that's good well happy uh hump day although i'm going to call it trump day
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because the theme of my notes today is that it feels like everything's going trump's way suddenly
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now i don't know that that's true it might be just a weirdness of the way the news broke
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but there's a lot of stuff that seems to go pro trump suddenly let's get into it
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first of all trump is teasing us that uh quote we have a big announcement to make
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it's going to be truly earth-shattering and positive development for this country
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and it's not about trade uh what do you think it is what would be a truly earth-shattering and
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positive development that we don't yet know about and it's not about trade could it be
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the end of a war that doesn't feel like that would be you know a positive development for this country
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it'd be good for the world but i don't know if he'd say it that way could it be
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well i don't know what do you think it is he's so good at the show
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i don't know you know we'll talk about that so we'll talk about all the the things that are
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happening but they don't seem to fit truly earth-shattering and positive developments for
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this country there's a bunch of things that could be happening for other countries mostly you know
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their benefit i don't think it's that i don't know what it is so we'll see anyway um believe it or not
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according to the national pulse the us and the uk are set to sign a bilateral trade deal oh here
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it comes all right the first thing they need to know about all the announcements of trade deals
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probably they're over they're exaggerated meaning if if somebody says to you today hey we got a trade
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deal with fill in the blank whatever country it probably means not really it probably means that
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it's close it looks like it might happen you know maybe in a month maybe if we make some agreements
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so we haven't made yet so i'm not willing to believe any of the uh we almost have a trade deal but
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that's the news um and the early reporting is that the uk is signed they're poised to sign a bilateral
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trade agreement but they would not accept our our food products that's part of the reporting when it's not
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confirmed so this is unconfirmed stuff but uh i wouldn't be surprised if they say we won't get we
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won't accept your food products because as hormones and it's or whatever now wouldn't you like an option
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to buy the european version of american food would you buy that so we've got you know various chemicals
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and treatments and treatments and hormones and whatever in our food and the europeans use that
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as an excuse not to buy our food but i would love a section of the store where it's our food but it's
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made in a way that only europeans will accept so there's no chemicals i would buy the european version
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of american food you know grown in america so maybe there's something that good that will happen to
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that uh us and iran are going to hold the fourth round of talks and i guess it's good that there's a
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fourth round and there's also some clarity of what trump would accept and if you combine it with what
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rubio said um they're looking for a complete dismantling of iran's ability to make a nuclear
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weapon but it looks like according to rubio there might be a path uh if iran agreed there might be a
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path for iran to have domestic nuclear power which would be unfair for us to deny i think so we'll see
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there's more on that in a minute um and then trump envoy uh whitkoff according to jewish news syndicate
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um he's sensing that the abraham accords might have a breakthrough that uh that we can know something
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about it uh by next year so that would be a like a real alignment of the middle east i think a lot of it
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is just um will you accept israel's existence and will you all do trade with each other and it looks
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positive so iran is the big stinker in the middle east and we're even negotiating with them so that
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all looks like it's heading in the right direction so you see why i say it's it's not just a hump day
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today it might be trump day so everything is either teasing that something really good is coming
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in a variety of areas from trade deals to whatever trump was teasing about to the abraham accords to
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at least we're talking to iran i mean they're willing to have a fourth round of talk
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i'm still not super optimistic about that but better than not talking and then trump was teasing that
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india might drop all tariffs um then i saw separately that they might only drop tariffs on auto parts and
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steel so i would say that story is unconfirmed and i'd wait a little bit more for that but
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it does look like india is willing to do something that we would really like you know the the details
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of that to be determined but we might be looking at trade deals with the uk and trade deals with india
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fairly soon now you should understand that the trade deals are not really going to be fully
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you know fully signed and everything they usually start with some kind of letter of understanding
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so the letter of understanding would be well it is our intention to do this and it's your intention
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to do that do you agree but it's not the deal the the deal has to be really detailed and have every kind of
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contingency work into it and that takes a lot longer
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but uh trump says that india has quote already agreed to eliminate all tariffs on the u.s goods
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i think trump might be getting ahead of himself a little bit on some of the claims let's say it's
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directionally true because trump is usually pretty good in you know directionality meaning that we might
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be close to a deal or that's how it's going to turn out or it'll be something like that so that's all
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positive then on top of that you know i was i was a little suspicious whether the hoodies genuinely
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said that they wanted to stop fighting with the united states and stop bombing our ships and
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so far it looks like it might be true because what the hoodies did say is that they're gonna keep
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attacking israel and if they have the ability to give a statement that says we're still going after
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israel and vice versa israel's going after them that would have been the opportunity for them to say
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and we're still going after everybody or uh or trump is lying we don't really have a ceasefire deal
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but they didn't so i guess we're uh negotiating with them through some other country but it looks like
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it's possible that trump did something that i didn't think was actually possible to do in the real world
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he may have bombed them into into exactly what he wanted which is to stop bothering us in the red sea
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bothering our ships now it almost seems impossible doesn't it it and i was saying it doesn't look
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possible to me like i i didn't have a better idea so you know maybe it was worth a shot but i didn't
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really see that there would be some some situation where he would just bomb the living crap out of
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yemen and then the hoodies would say all right you made your point yep we we surrender uh we're not
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going to bother you anymore did anybody think that would work and we don't know the details but it seems to
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me that you know in trump's first term he also had some wins we weren't expecting against isis for
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example and it was always the same thing like if you look behind the curtain and find out why he had
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some success that we had not had before it's usually because he unleashed the full lethality of the military
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and there wasn't much reporting on it so so if what happened is that there's a hegseth being focused on
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you know lethality and not focused on trans in the military if they just said you can make your own
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local decisions you know you don't have to check in if you see a target you because that was a big problem
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before um you can go after any site that looks like it would be productive for our you know our national
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interests maybe that's all it took maybe the only thing we really needed to do was unleash the military's
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full lethality and then yemen said oh okay we weren't expecting that and we'd better we'd better surrender
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well in the same time um you probably are the israel because they the rudis incentive missile that came
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close to ben gurien airport that the uh israelis destroyed the port where yemen was importing 80 percent of
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their food and uh i think they may have i don't know if they already destroyed the the main airport in
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yemen but that's a pretty big response and it makes sense because israel can't really be israel
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if they can't have their own airport because the the hoodies might missile attack it at any minute
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so for israel to respond in what looks like an over response taking out the port that handles 80 percent
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of their food that's a big response and taking out maybe their only airport that's a big response
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so we'll see where that goes anyway so if it's true that trump at least got the rudis to agree not to
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attack the ships in the red sea maybe except for israel ships because they have something still going
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on that would look like one of the greatest achievements of his presidency it would be quite
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impressive i didn't expect it to happen and i'm i'm not positive it's happened but remember this is a
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hump day but it's actually trump day so we're just gonna let's just assume it's real just for today
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because it feels good well allegedly james o'keefe is going to have some kind of story today
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that would be the reason that he disappeared for a while because he was afraid that he would get killed
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now alex jones teased that alex jones knows some of what the topic of the story will be but it doesn't
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know the details and alex jones agrees it's this is big now as has it been released yet because sometimes
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this stuff happens while i'm talking to you but has james o'keefe released his newest story
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i have to admit i'm interested now given that uh you know the nature of james o'keefe stories do you think it
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will be good for trump meaning that it will be something that shows that there's very bad behavior
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by democrats or do you think it'll be bad for trump because it would go after some republican thing
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well if you look at history you you would probably assume that whatever it is that james o'keefe is up
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to you know if he drops his story today it's probably bad for democrats which would mean
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it's a perfect story for trump day yeah not hump day trump day um now on the uh scarier side of things
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you probably heard that india did an attack on pakistan that was in response to um a pakistani militant
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attack that killed 26 people in india and of course this is a long-term thing that's been simmering
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forever and occasionally there's some some action back and forth but uh they are both nuclear nuclear
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countries and these are bigger attacks than what we normally see and i guess pakistan is already
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responding to india's response so with some artillery but artillery seems like maybe a
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you know could have been worse i think india was sending in missiles and if the response is artillery
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it would feel like they're just making sure that india didn't get a free punch so i'm not sure
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they're escalating they may have just said all right all right you did this we did that
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you know let's get a go so i'm not afraid of that yet and i don't think that that has anything
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to do with trump at the moment there's nothing you can do about it um speaking of trump um he's
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escalated his public calls for military action against the mexican cartels and he said that he had
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made an offer on monday to the mexican president and uh this this this is what he said about the
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president of mexico now i ask you would any other president ever use these words there's some things
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that that trump does so perfectly that it doesn't look like a president should even do this stuff
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but when you just sort of look at it you go that's sort of perfect this is what trump said about the
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shine bomb the mexican president quote she is so afraid of the cartels she can't even think straight
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she is so afraid of the cartels she can't even think straight
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now the funny thing about that is it rings true doesn't it like when you hear that you think okay
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that's you just got to the center of it she must be afraid of the cartels we all knew that right that's
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not news but when you add the that she can't even think straight it probably is because when he talks to
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her he's talking about you know solving the cartel problem and she's not responding like she wants to
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solve it you know that would look like she's not thinking straight so i just love that framing that
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she was so afraid of the cartels she can't even think straight
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so uh now that uh trump has moved our military um to a lot of locations on the border with mexico
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i think it's causing some of the cartels to have to arrange their business differently and i guess
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the cartels are fighting each other which i always wonder if we're behind that do you ever wonder if
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we're behind that like wouldn't it be easier for us to get the cartels to fight each other than it
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would be for us to fight them so i always wonder do we send some information to one that sort of suggests
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maybe they should fight with the other one i don't know we should if we're not doing that we're missing a
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obvious move anyway so my question is this do you think trump would ever attack the cartels in mexico
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mexico without approval of the president of mexico now uh one possibility is that
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he could give her deniability so she could continue to say no you are definitely not allowed to use your
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military but then we could maybe use the military and then she could say i told you not to use the
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military we'll do everything we can in our power to stop you from using your military i mean they're not
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going to attack our military that would be suicide so maybe there's a good cop bad cop situation where
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the president of mexico shine bomb can pretend that she's opposed to it while letting it happened
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well not letting it happen what the hell could she do really because she's not going to turn the mexican
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military on the u.s military i mean that would just be insane so i think that they would stand down and
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they would just complain a lot but maybe they'd be getting what they wanted which is the cartels getting
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whacked here's what i predict i predict that after a given amount of time and it might not be right away
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that there will be a limited attack um probably by drone so not with boots on the ground but by drone
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on a cartel facility maybe a maybe a military you know maybe they will find the cartel has a ammo dump
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or something and it will go after it because it's really just military and it'll be a test and then
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scheinbaum will say damn it i told you to keep your military out of our country you can't do that again
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whatever you do don't do that again and then we see how bad it was and we'd be like all right that
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wasn't so bad maybe we'll try it again so i think trump is likely to test it out and see what the public
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reaction is see what the see what the mexican public thinks because i'm not sure what the mexican
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public would think would the mexican public really be angry if we took in a cartel facility or would they
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say okay you know we're not supporting the cartel but you can't do that in our country or would they
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say finally finally because our own government won't do this finally somebody's going to take
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on the cartels which would they do probably a little of both right there's always people on both sides of
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everything i don't know in related news one american news is reporting that uh bondi has announced one of
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the largest fentanyl seizures seizures in the u.s history and they also captured a um one of the
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sinaloa cartel leaders who i believe was in the united states operating somewhat freely in the united
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states now largest one of the largest fentanyl seizures it came with a bunch of other drugs as well
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but you shouldn't get excited about large fentanyl seizures because the ability of the cartels to just
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make more large fentanyl um shipments is really high right now so if you you know if you get a million
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pills they just say all right we're gonna have to work overtime tonight make another million pills it's not
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the biggest problem in the world and i think it's all sort of factored into the cartel business model
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okay we're gonna have a certain amount of very large captures so they just make sure they make enough
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that the large captures don't change the nature of what they're doing so i don't think that's going
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to help too much but it's better than not you know it's better than not catching them
00:24:43.520
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think uh well apparently uh scott basant treasury secretary and uh our trade representative
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of a greer are going to meet with the chinese um uh what would you call them sort of a trade they're not
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really a trade delegation but they're going to serve a capacity at the moment in switzerland now that
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turned out to be the perfect solution because china didn't want to look like it was you know anybody's
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um slave so if we had said to them hey let's talk and then we said the place that we're going to talk
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then china would say you can't push this around we're not going to go where you want us to go
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so what we found was a place they were going to be anyway they were going to be in switzerland for
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other business so then basant says well why don't i just meet you in switzerland
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could that be more perfect no i mean switzerland being famous for being unaligned
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and they're going to be there anyway so it's just the perfect opening to have the conversation about
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you know how do we talk about trade now you should not expect that any agreements will be made
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um accept agreements to make agreements basically but they'll be talking on saturday and sunday
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and besant is trying to you know um trying to make sure that you curb your enthusiasm about what's
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possible he said we're going to agree about what we're going to talk about and then he says my sense
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is it'll be about de-escalation not about big trade deals so de-escalation would mean
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that we say something like okay we intend to do trade talks we intend to so in the meantime can
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we drop some of these tariffs so maybe you know and then china would not feel like they're being
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you know under duress they would feel like they're negotiating with uh with a peer which is what they've
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asked for so it looks like there's a path um and it looks like everybody knows what the path is
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which is first you de-escalate you treat them like a peer not like somebody that you're pushing around
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so far so good and you know the thing that trump did is he made it at everybody's top priority
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without that i don't think anything would be happening so trump gets the win for making it a
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top priority and then the market has to deal with the fact that the thing they were most afraid of
00:27:53.680
is that china you know our china trade deals would go off the rails everything would be bad and that
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would be bad for the market but now you can see that there might be a fairly reasonable path
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which is first you meet and agree upon what you're going to talk about probably you talk more about
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de-escalating instead of a whole trade deal and then everybody goes whew we've got 90 days or maybe to
00:28:25.680
the end of the year or whatever they need and in that time we're going to talk about all those trade
00:28:32.400
related things and tariffs and ip theft and everything else that were bothered by china and then the markets
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are going to say all right it looks like a step in the right direction and that's why i call it trump day
00:28:49.200
instead of humtay according to just the news tulsi gabbard the dni has released a fully unredacted version of a
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biden memo directing federal law enforcement to go after non-criminals in the united states
00:29:13.280
just think about that there was a biden memo authorizing federal law enforcement this is four
00:29:24.560
years ago to target americans who were engaged in now remember none of these are illegal so they were
00:29:32.560
they were authorized to go after americans engaged in uh concerning non-criminal behavior non-criminal
00:29:41.520
in the name of fighting domestic terrorism um in the name of fighting domestic terrorism
00:29:46.960
so with a specific eye on those serving in the military what they're going to especially look at people just
00:29:57.280
serving patriotically in the military really um people who own firearms what
00:30:07.680
people who legally own firearms are going to be targets of law enforcement um or spreading what
00:30:17.920
officials consider to be xenophobic disinformation what xenophobic disinformation i feel like you could
00:30:28.720
put a lot in that that bucket on freaking believable it was a june 2021 memo so now you understand uh why the
00:30:40.000
fbi was monitoring conservative catholics and parents who protested against school boards and uh
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now this is the sort of news that won't make it onto the major media news right so democrats will never hear
00:31:00.240
this news but do you think democrats would be happy knowing that biden had ever ever authorized
00:31:11.120
federal law enforcement to go after people who were explicitly not accused of any crime
00:31:17.360
crime not accused of any crime and also not accused of preparing for a crime as far as i can tell
00:31:30.400
unbelievable but of course you know good for trump so it's another another good for trump thing
00:31:36.960
um the daily wire is doing an investigation into the african development foundation which is one of those
00:31:46.800
uh organizations that doge tried to penetrate and when doge went after them uh the african development
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foundation cfo refused to let them see the books and uh tried to lock them out and file a lawsuit
00:32:04.560
and you say to yourself that's pretty aggressive why would the cfo try so hard to deny doge looking at
00:32:12.480
their books well it turns out there's a reason the cfo had been steering allegedly had been steering
00:32:20.160
fake contracts to a friend of his who then wired cash back to the cfo oh god everything is exactly what
00:32:31.040
you thought it was you thought these these various uh charitable groups and ngos you thought that they
00:32:41.680
looked like money laundering operations because they didn't have any you know there was no real audit
00:32:47.360
trail for anything it was exactly what it looked like it was exactly what it looked like it was just
00:32:55.520
gigantic money laundering theft on freaking believable but again it makes uh the trump administration look
00:33:07.040
like the honest ones who were you know fighting crime and makes it look like the uh the biden administration
00:33:15.600
either wasn't good at finding and fighting crime or they were in on it so again it's not just hump day
00:33:25.680
today it's trump day everything's going his way
00:33:28.640
um then meanwhile uh joe biden did a bbc interview did any of you see a clip from that
00:33:39.120
so biden decides that he'll talk to the bbc now maybe that's because all the american media
00:33:46.560
is pretending that they're mad at him for his insiders not telling telling anybody that he was
00:33:52.720
mentally deficient so is that why he's talking to a foreign press because you know he doesn't have
00:34:00.480
that friction with them i don't know it but it was a bad idea because biden looks completely mentally
00:34:08.400
deficient in the interview and you know you sort of forget how much we got used to
00:34:17.360
now i don't forgive anybody for not being able to see it because it was still pretty damn obvious for
00:34:23.920
the entire term of biden's uh well even before he got in office it was obvious but when you see it
00:34:30.400
again after you haven't seen it for a few months because we've been sort of denied any uh biden
00:34:38.160
spontaneous comments you know we've only seen him read a speech but when he tries to talk on his own
00:34:44.480
oh my god how in the world did we put up with that for so long so that was a total failure
00:34:54.080
which is good for trump on hump day that's now trump day when i found out my friend got a great deal on
00:35:01.840
a wool coat from winners i started wondering is every fabulous item i see from winners like that woman over
00:35:09.120
there with the designer jeans are those from winners ooh are those beautiful gold earrings did
00:35:14.880
she pay full price or that leather tote or that cashmere sweater or those knee-high boots that dress
00:35:20.560
that jacket those shoes is anyone paying full price for anything stop wondering start winning winners find
00:35:28.320
fabulous for less well in other news that doesn't have to do with trump uh the uk is going wild in a good
00:35:37.920
way uh with ai powered uh scans so apparently they've got a new uh ai powered 3d heart imaging
00:35:48.320
the 56 hospitals have that's going to turn uh routine ct scans into precise personalized coronary maps
00:35:58.080
so apparently it's going to replace a lot of work that doctors would do but it'll do a an even better
00:36:03.760
diagnosis than the doctor and they're already rolling it out so i feel like one of the biggest
00:36:10.880
things that's going to happen and maybe trump will just get lucky because he happens to be in office when
00:36:16.560
this just coincidentally happens is i think there's going to be this enormous cost-saving trend in health
00:36:25.520
care now you know maybe a little start in other countries and spread to us but think of all the
00:36:32.960
things that ai could do and robots could do that we haven't quite implemented for example i'm pretty
00:36:42.960
sure that robots can do surgery better than human surgeons now i wouldn't personally want to go under
00:36:50.720
the knife with a robot doctor um but i could probably get used to it you know if i saw enough
00:36:58.800
science that said it's better but i'd need a human to be watching you know i'd want the uh the surgeon
00:37:07.040
even if it's in a different country you know they could be eating the sandwich and playing a video game
00:37:12.240
but every once in a while i'd like them to look at what the robot doctor is doing to say no no that's the
00:37:17.360
wrong organ no no no uh he's here for a heart problem uh you're taking on his kidney stop doing
00:37:25.520
that so if if the ai is better at imaging and we can reduce the cost of imaging which i think is a
00:37:38.000
it seems likely doesn't it doesn't seem to you that the cost of these big ct and pet scans and all those
00:37:44.320
things doesn't it feel like the natural direction for those would be much lower cost over time because
00:37:51.200
we'll innovate and there'll be a better way to do it etc so i'm thinking that the diagnosis part
00:37:59.840
of medicine is going to get real cheap because of ai and startups and then i'm thinking that the
00:38:08.080
uh treatment in many cases will also get a lot cheaper um the hard part will be the hospital stays
00:38:20.320
so here's just a question i was noodling on if you have a hospital you have to be ready for pretty much
00:38:28.880
anything that that could happen right so you're ready for every kind of possibility so you need to
00:38:35.280
have every machine which probably means a lot of your equipment is sitting around idle i'm just
00:38:41.280
guessing so i don't know anything about this industry so what would happen hypothetically
00:38:48.000
if startups started doing you know little hospital functions where they only do one thing
00:38:56.000
so let's say for example there's a mini hospital that pops up that only does hip replacement surgery
00:39:03.600
because probably there's a certain set of machines that you use just for that
00:39:09.840
and then you can make sure that you have real specialists who are just good at that
00:39:15.120
wouldn't it be cheaper yeah wouldn't you be able to get all kinds of uh you know efficiencies
00:39:22.800
if you only worked on the one thing and there's plenty of them i mean you wouldn't run out of
00:39:27.200
you know hip surgery possibilities so i'm just wondering if there's some way that the whole
00:39:33.360
hospital thing could be rethought so that the more you know the common problems if you you know if
00:39:41.120
they're not life-threatening the life-threatening stuff you just have to be ready for everything
00:39:45.840
but if it's just a ordinary surgery couldn't you have a place that just is specializing in that and
00:39:52.640
it would be cheaper i don't know maybe but i think healthcare costs have some possibility going down
00:40:01.680
um apparently uh former google ceo eric schmidt is one of the backers of a startup called future house
00:40:13.120
and they've just released an ai agent for discovery and biology now it's currently in beta but apparently
00:40:21.920
it can do open-ended and directed data analysis so if you give it a whole bunch of data it can look
00:40:29.680
for whatever you tell it to look for but it can also look at the data and just see if it finds anything
00:40:35.600
that might be interesting that you didn't know to ask for now that would be amazing but here's my question
00:40:41.520
um so um so i'm seeing adam dopamine says that healthcare isn't expensive because of doctors
00:40:52.000
that's true it is expensive because the government killed the free market for healthcare
00:40:58.400
um i'm open to that argument that's an area i don't know enough about but it wouldn't surprise me
00:41:06.000
if the trump administration can sign some executive orders to make uh the healthcare market more competitive
00:41:16.160
so you know maybe that's coming anyway so my question is this we've had ai for a while now
00:41:23.280
has ai ever come up with a genuine insight in any domain
00:41:30.080
now is that and is that what this uh this biology based a ai agent is going to do
00:41:39.520
so as an ai agent for discovery and biology so it's going to be zipping through data
00:41:47.840
is it going to come up with its own like great insights that we didn't know to ask it to look for
00:41:54.640
because i've not heard of any example where where somebody said you know what i can't believe how
00:42:03.840
dumb we were we've been looking at this data forever and until we turned the ai onto it we didn't
00:42:10.720
realize that we were sitting on the answer to our problems we just weren't asking the right questions
00:42:17.920
i don't know so it's making me wonder if ai can ever do that or or at least you know the current
00:42:27.520
technology of ai i i feel like by now we would have seen all these great insights
00:42:34.880
and it would be you know it would be posting on x better than naval and uh it'd be saying things that
00:42:43.680
you knew were good for you but if it hadn't framed it that way you weren't going to do anything about
00:42:49.360
it i mean just think of some of the things that i've done for example uh you know if you're new to
00:42:57.280
me this will sound weird but those of you have been here for a while it won't sound weird so how many of
00:43:04.000
you have heard me say something or write something in one of my books that caused you to change your life
00:43:11.040
either lose weight or stop drinking or exercise more or build a talent stack or do systems over
00:43:18.320
goals now those are those are insights those are you know reframes in some case but basically
00:43:27.520
they're designed to make you see something that was sort of always there it's just that i saw it
00:43:34.640
differently and in seeing it differently or even just putting it in different words i could turn your
00:43:42.640
general desire to improve into you to actually doing things and then you would actually improve
00:43:50.400
now that is a genuine insight has ai done anything that would cause people to go whoa
00:44:01.040
you know there's a new way of thinking i i'm going to try that out see how it works i don't think so
00:44:07.280
so it makes me wonder if there's any kind of cap on that that ai can't get past we'll find out
00:44:14.560
well scott jennings who continues to be the uh star of cnn he was talking about what i would call the
00:44:26.560
half pinion of democrats now that's my word the half pinion but uh he says ask a liberal for their
00:44:34.160
trade strategy and they'll say a lot of words that essentially translate into uh let china keep eating
00:44:40.640
our lunch now that's you know his own take on it which is funny but it's right if you say well what
00:44:51.200
should we do about the fact that china has unfair trade practices well we shouldn't do a tariff war
00:45:00.400
okay so that if we don't do the tariff war then they just keep eating our lunch
00:45:06.960
well but tariffs are bad okay i hear you but if we don't do the tariffs you're okay with us just
00:45:18.560
continuing to be robbed it's like they can't really consider the the full picture but uh you see that
00:45:27.520
you see that continuously in the differences of opinions that that that the democrats have half
00:45:34.880
opinions um i would say that gaza you know the people who want israel to stop dominating gaza
00:45:43.440
also a half pinion now no matter what you think about the the ethics or the morality of what's going
00:45:50.240
on over there i i just stay out of that completely because that's not my domain um you'd have to admit
00:45:57.520
that if you say i want to the killing to stop you're sort of ignoring half of the question which is what
00:46:07.040
would happen if the killing stopped would they just reconstitute hamas after a while and then israel got
00:46:14.560
nothing out of all that devastation that's not really an opinion it's half an opinion uh i want people to
00:46:23.360
stop fighting not really stop fighting not really an opinion it's halfway there
00:46:37.280
um what would what would happen if doge had tried to do things the normal way that people try to do things
00:46:44.480
how how would that go they would walk in and they'd say we'd like to have access to all your books
00:46:53.040
and see what we can cut in your organization but of course we're going to do it the right way
00:46:59.440
so we would like to check with you leaders of this group to make sure that we're not doing anything
00:47:04.880
that's inappropriate and then the leader says oh good that's exactly what you should be doing and by the
00:47:11.360
way there's nothing here that could be cut none of that would work so if you don't like the chainsaw
00:47:20.560
with the break you first and then fix it if if you have to you're not really talking about the real world
00:47:28.080
it's a half pinion my half pinion is we should not do anything that's a mistake okay yeah you wouldn't do
00:47:36.560
anything if you'd never wanted to make a mistake that that just doesn't work for any domain you know all
00:47:46.880
right so here's a here's something i've noticed as a general trend republicans try to do policy
00:47:57.200
and democrats play with the rules and i'm going to give you some examples of that so here's the
00:48:07.280
theme the theme is that republicans try to fix actual problems and democrats not having a better idea for
00:48:16.080
fixing problems try to use the the rules they game the rules here's some examples the elections
00:48:27.200
so the democrats have just wildly game the the election laws to make legal uh voting without id and
00:48:37.680
voting from home and and a whole bunch of things but all of this seems to be rules related the republicans
00:48:46.480
are more like they just want a fair election but then the democrats are all about let's play with these rules
00:48:54.240
rules what about uh the the maryland dad the republicans just want to get rid of somebody who's
00:49:02.640
looks to be an ms-13 bad guy they just want less crime fewer criminals what are the democrats complain
00:49:12.160
about the process we're going to talk about the process how about the uh we were just talking about doge
00:49:19.920
um they wanted to complain about the process of doge whereas republicans were can we just get in there
00:49:29.680
and cut all of this garbage and if we cut too much somebody will scream and we'll fix it which is what
00:49:35.520
they did and and meanwhile the democrats are just trapped on process yeah but you should use the scalpel
00:49:43.760
which means nothing really what about the uh trump's tariffs and trade wars
00:49:52.560
same thing trump says we're getting ripped off i'm going to stop it so he does a very big move
00:50:01.920
to you know do these wild you know tariff reciprocity and more and uh he's going after the problem
00:50:11.600
the problem the problem is that countries are ripping us off and they're not paying attention to us when
00:50:16.320
we say stop ripping us off now they're paying attention so he's getting close to a solution
00:50:23.280
so what do the democrats do they complain about the way he's doing it again it's not about the solution
00:50:32.240
it's about the way he's doing it um and of course they complain endlessly about trump's personality
00:50:39.280
which has nothing to do with anything and uh there's the law fair the law fair is not about
00:50:48.560
really having a you know better country or fixing crime it's about manipulating the law
00:50:56.960
to to win basically so again it's about manipulating the rules and the law and the
00:51:03.120
you know the the standards basically going after a president with every every possible way you can
00:51:11.200
with these bullshit law fair things that's new what about all the censorship attempts that we learned
00:51:18.000
about with the twitter files and we learned about with this latest uh biden memo that came out again
00:51:26.400
instead of just having you know free speech which would be a sort of a republican goal free speech
00:51:35.840
they go after all the rules they find these clever ways to build ngos and and you know have have the uh
00:51:44.400
the external forcing uh or our external processes turned internally so that we can censor americans again
00:51:54.480
playing with the rules what about the fake news again it's not about what's real in the real world it's about
00:52:03.520
a narrative so that people don't know exactly what's real but the playing with the the rules of the the
00:52:11.680
fake news basically what about all these ngos again creating a whole rules-based
00:52:19.360
structure that they can hide money and get stuff done that maybe nobody wanted done what about all those soros
00:52:28.560
prosecutors again it's playing with the rules what about climate change being a driver of everything
00:52:39.040
playing with the rules um where the the better goal would have been let's get as much energy as
00:52:45.360
possible um i think i think doug bergam was the one who explained it really well recently
00:52:51.360
that even if you think that we need to get to a point where there's less co2 in the atmosphere
00:52:57.440
even if you believe you have to get there bergam correctly says the only way you could ever get there
00:53:04.560
is through um technical innovation and the only way we're going to survive
00:53:11.360
to get to a point with technical innovation at that level is if we have tons of energy right now
00:53:18.400
from every way we can get it because ai in particular will be sucking up that energy so ai might be
00:53:25.920
actually the technology that determines how real any of the climate stuff is and if it is real and has
00:53:34.160
to be solved probably would be the technology that figures out the best way to do it
00:53:41.440
so in general republicans try to get some policy done and democrats try to game the rules
00:53:51.280
well meanwhile in my state there's a uh an estimate by a kenneth well by the center square that's what's
00:54:03.120
writing about it yeah there's a new study from the university of southern california
00:54:08.800
michael mish and he's looked at what is likely to be californian gas prices
00:54:16.080
by the end of 2026 and that would be after the two refineries that say they're going to close have
00:54:23.760
closed and that would be one-fifth of our state's refining capacity so currently we have the nation's
00:54:31.440
highest gas prices four dollars and 78 cents per gallon which by the way is cheaper than i've seen
00:54:38.000
anywhere so i haven't seen 478 on the sign but i don't get out much so maybe i haven't seen anything
00:54:47.120
under five so i don't know if that's my local area or it changed recently and i just haven't gotten gas
00:54:53.600
in a month but the estimate is that california gas by the end of 2026 will cost eight dollars and 44 cents
00:55:04.480
per gallon based on the things that we know are going to happen not based on weird speculation
00:55:12.880
but based on the things that we already know are definitely going to happen
00:55:19.920
our state is so pathetic here are a few things that we don't get to have in our state
00:55:27.360
a movie business remember when california had a movie business
00:55:32.880
can you believe that we destroyed the entire film and movie business we completely own that
00:55:39.680
and it's completely dead because of taxes and basically bad management we're not going to have gas
00:55:49.600
because you know half of the half of the citizens won't be able to afford gas if it's eight dollars and
00:55:55.280
44 we don't have fire insurance and we don't have fire mitigation so it's more important to have fire
00:56:03.600
insurance than ever we don't have safety on the streets or in the stores
00:56:10.800
we don't have electricity when it's windy let me say that again if you didn't know that we don't have
00:56:17.680
electricity when it gets windy that's because the wind might blow some power lines down and start a fire
00:56:28.400
that's a real thing in southern california um i don't think it sent me in northern california yet but it
00:56:35.200
could when the wind reaches a certain level they turn off the electricity in my state
00:56:47.840
and for all of that we have the highest state taxes
00:56:54.000
so that's that's what california got for you good job california anyway
00:57:03.680
um and then here's some news from the brighter side of news joshua shavit is writing about this
00:57:12.880
uh one of the things i enjoy is making a prediction years before it could come true
00:57:25.360
and then knowing it's going to be true and then just watching it develop
00:57:32.160
now here's here's just one that makes me laugh there's new research that reveals that plants absorb
00:57:38.080
31 percent more co2 than previously thought now now suppose this is true
00:57:49.600
how good are those climate models if they got if they got plant absorption of co2 off by 31
00:57:59.920
do you think that they put those 100 variable climate models everything was fine
00:58:06.880
but they had this one little thing and if they just tweak that then it'll be just just right
00:58:12.960
so the the thing i've been saying on social media for a while that just always makes me laugh
00:58:18.000
whenever i see a story like this i always say wait until you find out about the climate models
00:58:25.840
in my opinion there's a hundred percent chance that sometime probably in your lifetime
00:58:32.080
there will be a whistleblower and the whistleblower will be somebody who worked with climate models
00:58:39.520
and will be maybe done with that industry or you know maybe they're just brave
00:58:44.560
and they're going to come out they're going to say all right the climate models are not real
00:58:50.000
how do i know i made climate models what do you mean they're not real okay we were just guessing
00:58:56.560
if you tweak anything you can get any number you want every now and then we would produce a
00:59:02.880
an estimate that was outside the zone that the industry would allow so we just tweaked it so it was in the
00:59:10.160
zone there's going to be a whistleblower on on the climate models you wait for that i guarantee it
00:59:18.480
it's it's the most predictable thing in the world because i think everybody who's worked with
00:59:23.760
any kind of prediction models i think we all in which i have in the financial realm not in the
00:59:30.720
climate realm but it's the same the same thing once you add a certain number of variables to a
00:59:37.040
prediction model it's completely useless you can't you can't predict the future
00:59:44.400
and nobody's ever figured out is predict the future with you know a hundred variables
00:59:49.600
so just wait till you find out when the whistleblower appears it's coming
00:59:59.840
according to modernity steve watson is writing that cbs news did a piece about china that almost seems
01:00:08.160
like cbs wants china to win the trade war so cbs news sent a correspondent over to the
01:00:15.440
manufacturing fair in china and uh the the theme of the report was that the poor uh the poor factory
01:00:27.520
workers and manufacturing people in china were being punished for quote being good at exporting their
01:00:35.520
products so we're punishing the chinese the poor chinese workers for simply being good at what they do
01:00:43.040
um so and it's terribly unfair and what we're doing to china is very mean that's cbs news
01:00:58.560
um according to the national pulse there are some medium-sized companies manufacturing companies that
01:01:06.720
are just swamped with new business in america because people are looking for alternatives to chinese
01:01:14.960
products so in some cases there are things we don't make in america in other cases there are things we do
01:01:21.920
make that maybe were a little more expensive than the chinese version but with the tariffs um
01:01:29.440
um they're they're just doing great business right now so for example uh u.s manufacturers such as
01:01:37.440
jergens grand river rubber and plastic safe source direct accu rounds whirlpool and excel dryer they're
01:01:46.000
all reporting just businesses booming because they're american businesses and and they were doing something that
01:01:54.160
china was doing a little bit cheaper but maybe not now so this is sort of a hidden a hidden benefit
01:02:03.600
because these are not the biggest companies but they're uh they're located in various places ohio
01:02:10.320
illinois massachusetts and michigan and they're just doing booming work and that is your hump day that's really trump day
01:02:20.480
well i don't know if you saw the clips of uh prime minister carney of canada meeting with trump
01:02:29.760
but it was very interesting so trump managed to balance the fact you know that we have this friction with canada
01:02:38.240
with the fact that his charisma is so strong that he can make uh prime minister carney
01:02:45.760
sort of smile and have a good time while he's telling him he wants to take over his country
01:02:57.360
um so carney tried to frame the idea that you know canada would ever become a
01:03:05.280
the 51st state of the united states he said uh that canada is not for sale
01:03:11.120
so he said it very well he said some things are never for sale and you know canada will never be
01:03:18.080
for sale but when did we say we wanted to buy them i don't recall that i think trump was just saying
01:03:27.920
it just makes more sense we would be one country he didn't say we want to buy you
01:03:32.640
and and i would agree there's no price so yeah i would agree with carney canada is not for sale
01:03:41.600
and it should not be for sale but trump calls it a potential marriage a marriage
01:03:51.200
where two people say you know what this would be a good deal for both of us that's a completely different
01:03:57.280
frame so uh and then trump reinforces the fact that they're getting 200 billion dollars a year of
01:04:04.960
free military protection from the united states uh i don't know if that's a real number but it's one
01:04:10.960
he's using and that would be something that wouldn't be unfair if we were part of the same country
01:04:19.920
and then you wouldn't have to worry about any tariffs on anything because we'd be part of the same
01:04:27.120
country and maybe the cost of government you know may be reduced because instead of two entirely
01:04:36.960
different governments maybe you just have one now i'm not going to say that this is likely that canada
01:04:44.720
in the us will have a marriage and become one but um right in front of the entire world after
01:04:52.640
carney says in front of the press that canada is not for sale trump trump just shrugs and he goes
01:05:03.920
he says i've had many many things that were not doable and and ended up being doable and i thought to
01:05:10.560
myself okay that really is true there's nobody i know more than trump except maybe elon musk who's
01:05:20.640
taken on things that everybody knew were undoable and sort of made it work you know closing the border
01:05:28.560
was undoable but he did it becoming president the first time was undoable but he did it becoming
01:05:34.400
president the second time was undoable but he did it um getting the hooties to stop attacking
01:05:40.480
the ships seemed undoable but he did it so he does have a track record of doing the undoable
01:05:49.520
it's hard to it's hard to deny him that um but i would say that uh and there's also reports that carney
01:05:59.040
privately asked uh trump to stop talking about making canada the 51st state and i agree
01:06:06.720
i agree we should stop talking about making canada the 51st state and we should adopt trump's newer
01:06:15.520
model if you wanted any kind of a marriage to happen there uh to talk about it more like a marriage
01:06:23.200
meaning that it would happen if both sides say you know what this is a good idea
01:06:27.360
and at the moment there's no proposition on the table that canada could look at and say
01:06:33.840
oh actually if that's what you're talking about that wouldn't be a bad idea at all
01:06:40.720
so there's nothing really for canada to look at at this point it's just it just feels like trump is
01:06:46.560
trump is just making the impossible seem like maybe and i think he's actually pulled it off
01:06:57.200
because if you asked me a few months ago what are the odds that us and canada would become one country
01:07:03.200
i would have said come on that's not going to happen there's no scenario in which they're going to sell
01:07:10.320
the country or yeah no that's not going to happen if you ask me today i'd say huh probably not
01:07:24.880
so trump pulled that off he actually changed my mind from completely ridiculous to huh i don't know
01:07:35.600
you know you you could imagine there's a scenario in which there's a proposition that's just so good
01:07:43.200
for canada maybe lowers their taxes i don't know i mean that our systems are different enough that it
01:07:51.120
would be a massive transition or problem if we ever did it and you'd have to figure out a way that
01:07:58.160
it didn't make them look like the little you know the little uh partner that's being dragged along
01:08:05.600
but rather you know they they they got their full respect and uh i think it could be done
01:08:12.560
i'm not gonna i'm not gonna predict it will be done but the fact that he turned it from this is
01:08:25.280
well i guess trump's also issued some or is expecting to issue some uh executive orders
01:08:33.040
zero hedges reporting out in this actually axios reported on the first i think
01:08:38.400
to accelerate the deployment of nuclear reactors mostly getting rid of the regulatory burden
01:08:44.240
now that's a big deal um i thought that something like that had been worked on before
01:08:52.560
but not through the president's office i think maybe the you know the energy department or something
01:08:58.240
had been trying to reduce regulations but maybe they didn't get there so if we get to the point
01:09:05.040
where we can make the small nuclear reactors and just approve a few designs then we could just say
01:09:14.000
all right as long as it's this design just go wild and make a bunch of them you know the smaller reactors
01:09:20.000
that's probably where the big win is so this again is another potentially
01:09:27.040
gigantically important thing that trump could do that nobody else did reducing the regulations
01:09:34.640
for nuclear power plants um so it's uh it's trump day
01:09:41.280
uh cnn's uh polling data guy harry enton was talking about uh trump and how he's doing on crime
01:09:52.480
and apparently trump is doing well on crime and doing quote far better than joe biden who was so far
01:09:59.760
underwater enton said that my goodness he was setting records at minus 26 points you rarely ever see it so
01:10:07.360
apparently biden was so bad on crime that he set records for being bad on crime and then trump ran on
01:10:18.320
law and order and it was one of the reasons he got elected and now he's uh uh he's now plus two net
01:10:28.320
approval rating on that but here listen to this uh and said if we go back to uh march of 2024
01:10:37.360
all right so that's a year ago march of 2024 trump was underwater on crime at minus 13 and he got all the
01:10:48.720
way back and now so he's doing 15 points better than he was a year ago in terms of how people are
01:10:56.000
viewing him on crime you know one of the main things that the public cares about and uh and and then
01:11:04.080
enton mentions something that we've been talking about he said the alcatraz idea uh was a way to
01:11:12.720
focus the public on the fact that trump is the anti-crime guy exactly exactly so even harry enton completely
01:11:23.520
gets trump at this point that maybe alcatraz is a place that could end up being you know a prison maybe
01:11:33.040
but even if it doesn't the fact that he put it in your head makes you think oh that trump is the
01:11:39.920
anti-crime guy i mean biden never would have done that so alcatraz doesn't have to happen
01:11:47.520
it just has to inhabit your brain and sit next to trump is strong on crime yeah he must be strong in
01:11:55.360
crime he's trying to turn alcatraz into a you know into a place to handle more criminals
01:12:03.440
so uh i love the fact that even harry enton completely understands that that play
01:12:11.360
um columbia university one of the universities that was losing federal funding because they
01:12:18.480
didn't do enough about anti-semitism at their school uh they lost 400 million in federal funding
01:12:25.920
and now they're going to lay off 180 staff members that do administrative stuff
01:12:30.880
do you think that maybe they had 180 too many staff members anyway don't you think that maybe they
01:12:41.040
won't even notice the difference if 180 staff members go away i feel like that might be less of a
01:12:48.400
a you know less of a problem than it sounds like on paper um so they probably only cut the fat out
01:12:58.640
and a lot of a lot of the federal funding for quote research at these schools
01:13:04.480
i think most of the money actually just went to um administrative stuff and very little of it as a
01:13:15.120
percentage went to the actual research so i don't know it seems like it's moving in the right direction
01:13:25.600
now you've heard this story before but it's getting weirder uh senator uh what is the name uh tillis
01:13:34.000
so senator tom tillis he's opposing the confirmation or nomination of ed martin for the job of the u.s
01:13:43.280
attorney for the district of columbia now what you need to know is that the the person who's in that job
01:13:51.680
as u.s attorney for the district of columbia is going to be in charge of some of the most important
01:13:58.560
stuff because it's dc so whoever's in that position is going to have tremendous
01:14:06.880
influence on the world if he doesn't get confirmed it's possible that because of the weird way that dc
01:14:15.040
works judge bozberg would be the one who appoints the replacement so we could go from
01:14:24.080
the friendliest of the mega trump people that you could have ed martin to the worst thing that could
01:14:31.760
ever happen and it could happen because tom tillis doesn't like ed martin so i asked myself as does the
01:14:40.960
news what is it that tillis has against ed martin well you've heard before
01:14:50.080
that he doesn't like the fact that ed martin well he doesn't like his views on january 6.
01:14:56.400
so let me give you a little bit more about that so tillis this is according to reporting
01:15:03.520
uh he doesn't like the fact that ed martin might pursue the feds erection idea the fact that the
01:15:11.600
feds were maybe a little too active in causing the events of january 6 that is unconfirmed at this point
01:15:19.680
but uh if ed martin thinks it's worth looking into and tillis does not that would be a difference
01:15:26.800
um ed martin was a little more favorable to the pardons of the january 6 people
01:15:34.240
where tillis thinks they should have all been in jail if they violated the law
01:15:39.040
um and uh doesn't like his involvement in the stop the steel steel movement which had baseless claims of
01:15:50.080
election fraud and um tillis said uh he he might support martin for a role that wasn't the dc
01:16:01.600
district but not in washington he said where the january 6 events occurred citing that as a friction but
01:16:08.800
then he also goes on he doesn't like martin's quote lack of prosecuted prosecutorial experience
01:16:16.560
and controversial actions such as failing to disclose over 150 appearances on russian state media
01:16:24.640
and sending threatening letters to political opponents now here's a little uh rule that i learned
01:16:32.480
a long time ago and i've i've mentioned it before i've had to detect a lie
01:16:37.760
a lie if somebody says oh sorry i'm late traffic was bad that might be true because it's one reason
01:16:49.600
if somebody says oh i'm sorry i'm late traffic was bad and my car got a flat tire and i had the wrong
01:16:59.760
time on my calendar that's a little less likely to be true and people who have real reasons usually have
01:17:10.400
one there's like one good reason but when you start throwing the entire you know the entire laundry
01:17:17.920
basket at it it's like well i'd be okay with him being um in this job if it were not washington dc
01:17:27.760
and then he throws in the lack of prosecutorial experience which would be the opposite of his
01:17:34.160
earlier point his earlier point would being oh he'd be perfectly fine for some place not washington dc
01:17:42.000
but then he says he has a lack of prosecutorial experience which would suggest
01:17:47.120
that he thinks he's not qualified for those other places that are not dc
01:17:50.880
right so there's something that just smells a little wrong about the reasons he's giving
01:18:00.560
and then there's what this one about 150 appearances on russian state media
01:18:05.360
so that would be rt i'm pretty sure the the outlet rt now rt is definitely russian state media
01:18:16.720
there's no doubt about it but i too have appeared on rt um not recently but during the the first uh
01:18:25.760
election cycle for trump and i remember you know i was getting lots of requests because i had a different
01:18:32.960
take on trump that he was persuasive so rt would often invite me on and then i would do an interview
01:18:42.160
usually live and they would show the entire thing and they wouldn't you know have much pushback
01:18:49.840
and i thought to myself is that really a problem for me because i was fully aware that rt meant
01:18:56.400
russian you know russia today and that it was a you know russia dominated media i was completely aware
01:19:03.280
of that but it didn't matter because as long as they didn't edit what i said why did i care who it was
01:19:14.240
so i just i've stopped you know i stopped accepting uh offers from rt because they got too much heat
01:19:21.920
and i understand why you know because because they can also influence things by who they have on
01:19:29.600
so if they have on one set of views but not another i could see how that would be propaganda-ish
01:19:36.880
but from my personal perspective as long as they didn't edit what i said
01:19:42.880
why did i care what edit what outlet it was they got to hear me i just didn't care
01:19:49.520
so at the moment i'm playing it cautiously and i wouldn't i wouldn't go on rt but there was a
01:19:55.760
time when a lot of people who were normies went on rt because they didn't get edited so
01:20:04.400
what was the problem it was also before you know russia attacked ukraine so things were different then
01:20:11.280
i don't know so my take on uh tillis is there's something else that is the problem i believe he's
01:20:20.880
trying to protect something or hide something and i do not trust that the reasons he's giving
01:20:27.520
are real reasons there's something fishy about this something really fishy i don't know if we'll ever find
01:20:35.520
out if that's true but uh smells fishy to me the post-millennium is saying that there's a new report
01:20:46.080
by the national intelligence council that uh it's probably not true that the head of venezuela is
01:20:56.160
controlling the activities of the trenda aragua gang in the united states but it's probably true
01:21:04.960
that members of the madura regime uh were active in helping them get to the united states and other
01:21:12.720
countries as a destabilizing force so it's it's probably not true that they're operating like a
01:21:21.440
a wing of the madura government you know like a paramilitary force or something because they're
01:21:27.600
a little into they're kind of independent and spread out and they're kind of concentrating on
01:21:33.840
smaller crimes you know not big terrorist acts or something so that sounds true um so there's
01:21:40.800
probably some understanding that if it's destabilizing to the united states they're kind of okay with it
01:21:48.960
but beyond that i don't think that they're giving them orders so it's probably less likely that you're
01:21:56.400
going to see some big trenda aragua terrorist event you know you know orchestrated by the head of
01:22:03.920
venezuela probably not but there may be plenty of people in the government of venezuela who are happy to see
01:22:11.760
us struggling with the gangs all right ladies and gentlemen that is my show for today um i think i've
01:22:20.480
made my point that it's trump day not hump day so we'll see how much more good news there is coming
01:22:26.000
um we'll check in on uh the breaking news and uh thanks for joining we'll see you same time tomorrow
01:22:35.600
for more fun and uh locals i'm going to talk to you privately in 30 seconds if my
01:22:56.000
portion of you is working to do with my question and here's your question please