Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2841 CWSA 05⧸16⧸25

00:00:00.000 let's check our stocks and they look like they're in a healthy situation today

00:00:06.960 yeah test is up all right let's have a show gonna check my comments

00:00:20.400 there we go

00:00:30.000 good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of human civilization it's called

00:00:38.800 coffee with scott adams and you've never had a better time but if you'd like to take this

00:00:43.680 experience up to levels that nobody can understand with their tiny shiny human brains all you need for

00:00:50.800 that is a cup or mug or a glass of tank or gels a stein a canteen jug or a flask a vessel of any

00:00:57.200 kind fill it with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled

00:01:04.160 pleasure of the dopamine end of the day the thing that makes everything better it's called the

00:01:08.080 simultaneous sip and it happens now go

00:01:21.200 perfect uh well let's see if there's any science that they could have skipped

00:01:27.680 just by asking me hmm oh here we go uh my favorite writer lately eric dolan and sci post 0.90

00:01:37.600 he's uh reporting that women with adhd have less consistent orgasms during partnered sex

00:01:46.000 i'm glad they said partnered now do you think they needed to do that study

00:01:51.840 now i don't know the answer to this because of my personal exploits i know the answer to this because

00:02:00.400 i know what adhd is and i know what an orgasm is and i'm pretty sure that if you're thinking about 0.66

00:02:09.120 something else while you're having sex your orgasm will not be so powerful or likely to happen so

00:02:18.000 yeah next time you need to know if adhd is going to interfere with anything including sex

00:02:24.160 or anything else just ask me um yes i think their minds would wander a little bit

00:02:32.560 here's another one also eric nolan also psy post

00:02:37.440 apparently psychedelic experiences are linked to long-term improvements in psychological flexibility

00:02:46.240 you know who else they could have asked that question of 100 of people who have ever had a

00:02:51.920 psychedelic experience that's the main thing it does the main thing it does is make you see the world as

00:02:59.680 sort of subjective and then you get flexible because if the world is subjective

00:03:06.240 you don't have to be locked into any one way of thinking or one way of perceiving

00:03:10.960 so yes next time you want to study something about psychedelics just ask me i got the answers

00:03:20.800 well

00:03:24.000 because i have to know this uh i'm going to make all of you know it too if you were trying to avoid the

00:03:30.800 diddy the diddy trial because you'd hear something that would uh that would destroy your brain forever

00:03:39.280 uh you might want to not want to listen to this next thing

00:03:45.280 okay it's not funny it's not funny stop it it's not funny because there was a serious crime alleged

00:03:54.480 here but now there's new lawsuit according to uh bright bar news there's new lawsuit of a woman who 1.00

00:04:01.920 says that sean diddy combs um tried to rape her uh but that she was not that afraid once she once he 0.91

00:04:12.480 whipped out his manhood because she described it as tootsie roll sized 0.98

00:04:18.160 now are you ever going to be able to imagine him in any context again without imagining the the tootsie

00:04:32.080 roll no that's the most devastating thing you could do to him is do the the tootsie roll thing oh my

00:04:41.840 goodness but in related news the new york post is reporting that uh justin beaver's rep his rep my him

00:04:51.760 his rap um said that he was not a victim of sean combs so if you're worried about beaver being a victim

00:05:02.160 of sean combs his rep his rep his rep says it didn't happen now if you can't trust a celebrity rep

00:05:13.680 who can you trust

00:05:17.120 yeah so we're not going to believe the rep

00:05:21.680 i i hope it's true that he was not victimized but you're gonna need to do better than the rep

00:05:29.360 according to brendan carr at the fcc verizon has now agreed to end its dei policies um and uh that's

00:05:42.720 good news now you might know that uh i was a victim of dei back in my phone company working days i never

00:05:51.200 worked for verizon or any of the companies they absorbed but um i did experience the dei

00:05:59.520 effect so this one makes me a little extra happy because it feels personal so verizon we'll see

00:06:07.120 if you actually really get rid of your dei policies or are you just going to change the names they

00:06:14.080 might just change the names we'll check in with them later all right here's the uh the big story

00:06:22.560 everybody wants to talk about today so apparently james comey ex head of the fbi has arranged some

00:06:30.880 seashells on the beach and then took a picture of them and the shells were arranged in four digits

00:06:39.200 eight six four seven now 47 we assume refers to trump he's the 47th president 86

00:06:48.640 is a food services reference to getting rid of something so secretary christy noem as

00:06:58.960 um she she posted an ex disgraced former fbi director james comey just called for the assassination of

00:07:09.360 trump and uh she says that the department of homeland security is in secret service

00:07:15.840 are going to investigate this threat and will respond appropriately likewise fbi director cash patel

00:07:24.640 he's all over it he says we are aware of the recent social media post by comey and uh directly

00:07:32.400 at trump he says and we're in communication with the secret service and director current

00:07:36.560 primary jurisdiction is with the secret service but the fbi will provide necessary support

00:07:45.920 now if you were not aware of the 86 as a meaning beyond being a number you might not have worked in a

00:07:53.760 food services kind of job as i have i spent years working for in kitchens and i was a dishwasher and i was a

00:08:04.880 line cook and i was a salad cutting guy uh so i was always in and then i owned a couple of restaurants

00:08:11.920 so 86 was common phrase and so if my boss told me to 86 the lettuce i knew that that meant get a

00:08:22.720 high-powered rifle and hide it in the bushes near the golf course and then shoot that lettuce when it came

00:08:28.400 by right that's what that means it means assassinate the lettuce right 1.00

00:08:39.200 this this story strikes me is so dumb 0.99

00:08:42.640 that on one hand it's deadly serious because all it takes is one crazy person to say 1.00

00:08:50.400 he sends the signal he sends the assassination signal on the other hand

00:08:55.600 the odds that he will get in any kind of serious legal trouble for using a common word that means

00:09:02.800 get rid of something really low i don't think he's going to jail because he used a common food services term

00:09:11.440 with seashells so we can speculate what he was thinking and we could speculate what other people might

00:09:21.760 think when they think when they see it and whether he thought that they would think that

00:09:26.320 but i think he is in probably safe territory he's not going to go to jail for using a food services term

00:09:34.560 for getting rid of something you know we we never thought of it as assassinating the food

00:09:39.920 so i don't think he's in trouble but of course the news will be all over it today and you're going to

00:09:48.240 hear that story so many times and people will act terribly shocked and offended and

00:09:54.880 and it's the worst thing in the world they use that term 86

00:10:01.120 all right so that's coming um

00:10:05.040 joe rogan had a harvard uh i guess a persuasion mind control expert

00:10:11.200 and uh i saw a good summary of that annexed by the vigilant fox who's a good account to follow you

00:10:16.960 should follow the vigilant fox and uh the expert her name is lemoff she talked about how uh back in 2012

00:10:28.720 there was a an experiment done on facebook where they uh they achieved mass emotional contagion

00:10:38.000 at scale so whatever what they did was they uh they give one group of people without them knowing it

00:10:45.440 by the way this experiment was done on users of facebook without the users knowing they were part of an

00:10:51.440 experiment um some of them were given all these negative words and the others were fed a stream of

00:11:01.600 positive words and then they found out that the group that was exposed to more positive newsfeed

00:11:08.880 uh also had immeasurably statistically significant effect of more positive emotional response and the

00:11:19.360 control group was unaltered by this

00:11:23.760 now did they really need to run that experiment was there anything they could have done that would have been

00:11:30.640 cheaper and faster than running that big somewhat unethical experiment because

00:11:38.640 people didn't know that they were part of the experiment yes they could have just asked me

00:11:45.280 because every hypnotist and everybody in advertising would have known what would happen if you give

00:11:52.400 people a bunch of negative words they feel negative if you give them a bunch of positive words they feel

00:11:57.040 positive and it's not that complicated it's probably the the single most well understood thing in all of the

00:12:07.040 in all of persuasion yeah i doubt you could find even one hypnotist who wouldn't tell you oh you don't

00:12:13.840 need to do that experiment yeah all the negative words would make one group feel bad and positive words

00:12:20.240 would make the other group feel good yup

00:12:25.120 um but here's what you need to know that's basically cnn and msnbc every night now they're not running it as an

00:12:34.080 experiment it's just how they operate so you know that word chaos do you think it's an accident that they

00:12:43.840 all use that word and then when they they get a new word they all use it it's the same thing basically the

00:12:53.680 news news is a you know persuasion tool and they use negative or positive words based on the story

00:13:02.240 and uh it's very persuasive that that's why people who watch any one of those news shows

00:13:09.760 at the expense of watching the others seem to you to be emotionally

00:13:14.640 unbalanced and as because they are and you would be too if you only watched one news source

00:13:24.640 you would either get you know unrelenting good news about one side and unrelenting bad

00:13:30.400 words about the other side and and you'd be quite triggered

00:13:36.960 well trump is back from his successful middle east trip and i gotta say

00:13:41.840 is one of the most impressive you know successes that i've ever seen

00:13:49.200 i don't think we've seen a president

00:13:52.320 just dominate the news and do such a you know impressive job in other countries

00:13:59.040 but i i saw a joel pollock of breitbart did a little summary of what was

00:14:05.360 achieved and i think maybe the list is even longer than this but

00:14:08.880 uh joel's list is uh that trump got us respect and gratitude from the arab world yes investment

00:14:17.360 deals for the usa yes big ones release of the american israeli hostage well that timing was pretty good

00:14:24.480 huh clear statements of u.s interests and values yes uh tough message to iran yes uh

00:14:33.520 uh a distinct though linked path from israel you know a little bit of distance from israel but

00:14:40.960 we can see how we're connected yes bipartisan praise at home yes and a strong personal image

00:14:48.800 so yes now do you remember that it was only

00:14:54.640 oh i don't know two weeks ago when if you would ask democrats they would have said

00:15:00.720 that it's quite obvious to everybody that president trump is the laughing stock of other countries

00:15:06.480 do you remember that and does anybody remember me saying that no other countries are transactional

00:15:17.520 if trump offers something that they want they're going to love him if he offers them something they

00:15:24.080 don't like they're going to demonize him and all all this stuff you think about how oh they just have

00:15:30.960 an impression of him and it's negative and they think these none of that's real it's all about what

00:15:38.320 he can do for them and apparently they think he can do a lot for them in the middle east because they

00:15:44.080 really really put up the red carpet but i would say that the biggest thing he accomplished is that he

00:15:52.560 reframed war as commerce and i'm going to say it in my own words but this is what i got out of it

00:15:59.840 you know mostly from his speech but also from just the way he did business i i think i think he just

00:16:08.400 thinks that war is just the worst thing ever and he's very consistent about that you know when he

00:16:13.520 talks about it we just want to stop the killing etc but uh in a world where everybody has to be connected

00:16:22.560 commerce wise i think he just sees that commerce is the better tool do you want to be part of the

00:16:30.000 world economic global economy yes well then you're going to have to stop killing people

00:16:38.320 if you don't want to be part of the world economic global community basically the only way you could 0.97

00:16:45.040 ever thrive you don't have to be and we'll be happy to cut you out and you can just suffer and starve

00:16:51.280 and it feels to me like he's this is his greatest accomplishment i'm going to go a little further

00:17:00.720 and say it might be the greatest accomplishment of any leader in any time in american well no human

00:17:10.160 history not american history human history now part of it is because he's he's born in a specific time

00:17:18.000 you know uh 300 years ago you didn't need to maybe do some international trade but you can't really

00:17:26.240 survive unless you're plugged into the international commercial network of everything and i think trump is

00:17:35.200 the first one is the first one to say war is obsolete it's obsolete because in theory you can get almost

00:17:43.920 anybody to do almost anything to you know bring them from some extremist situation into the fold by just

00:17:53.520 making it clear that the only way you'll ever thrive is to act like a responsible country and then you could be

00:18:01.360 part of the world commercial situation now he hasn't said that directly but that sure feels like where

00:18:09.200 he's heading with iran with russia etc he's not saying if you don't give us what we want we're going to bomb

00:18:16.960 the hell out of you he doesn't take it off the table it's not off the table but he said clearly that 0.79

00:18:24.640 the the alternative for iran would be being crushed economically and the alternative for russia was to be

00:18:33.200 further sanctioned so i feel like it's one of the greatest accomplishments of any leader in the history of

00:18:43.440 humanity really if he pulls this off it's not completely pulled off but he seems to have reframed

00:18:52.800 it in a way that we can all understand well according to the uh kobe kobe is a letter on x uh trump's

00:19:03.120 investment he raised uh uh 2.5 trillion dollars in capital for the us now we don't know for what time

00:19:11.280 period but the uae was in for 1.4 trillion that they want to invest in the us saudi arabia 600 billion

00:19:19.760 cutter 500 billion um these are the very big numbers but they're not as big as what trump says it is

00:19:29.520 so those are the numbers based on news reports and what those countries have said out loud but

00:19:35.920 trump says that his his trip is worth 12 to 13 trillion and includes deals already announced

00:19:45.440 and some that will be you know outlined shortly so and he's going to be sending out letters to nations

00:19:53.440 for trade deals soon so i don't know so somewhere between 2.5 and 13 trillion is what he came back with

00:20:04.480 but i don't know how much of this to believe because when you look at the uh what the arabs 0.69

00:20:10.800 nations said they would contribute or actually invest not contribute um i don't know is that over 10 years

00:20:19.280 or 20 years so i don't even know how to how to say if that's important or not um i don't feel it

00:20:29.360 like nothing in my life changed um so i'm gonna say i'm not 100 sure anything in your life will change

00:20:37.760 either but it's way better than not getting those deals so a lot of what trump does is salesmanship and

00:20:46.880 selling the country and you know creating an image and you know just making people think differently

00:20:52.880 you know that's what he does best so if what he's done is created this situation where all the smart

00:20:58.800 people are putting massive amounts of money into the united states because it's the best place to invest

00:21:04.880 and it probably is it's probably the best place to invest um that would be amazing so i can quibble

00:21:12.880 about what the real number is and how big it is but what he's done is make everybody think in that way

00:21:20.400 the meaning that if he visits your country you better open your wallet and i think people will

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00:22:29.920 so not only did uh republicans think he did a great job in the middle east but

00:22:34.880 fox news and others are reporting that uh former biden officials people who would be you know deeply

00:22:41.920 critical of trump are also saying wow well he seems to have accomplished a lot in one trip and so

00:22:51.520 podcasters are saying it axios spoke to several biden administration officials

00:22:58.960 um and some of them are saying that trump's audacious foreign policy moves were um pretty pretty

00:23:05.760 amazing one official anonymously said uh gosh i wish i could work for an administration that can move

00:23:12.720 that quickly so even if you didn't love everything that trump has done everywhere you look at this and

00:23:19.680 you say to yourself biden could not do this i don't think there's a single democrat who actually knows what

00:23:29.520 they're talking about who would say oh yeah biden could have done that i you know he probably almost did

00:23:35.440 nope i think people are absolutely recognizing that he's a singular personality and that he can

00:23:44.960 literally do things that other people can't do and when you start imagining a world in which

00:23:51.200 you're not locked into all the same choices and that when trump shows up you have more options

00:23:57.920 and some of them look pretty good he's sort of someone who can make something happen

00:24:04.080 that all the smart people thought couldn't happen and that the value of that is incalculable

00:24:13.840 just think about that there's one personality really just one in the whole world where if he aims his

00:24:22.640 airplane at your country things can happen that just couldn't have happened without him nobody else is like

00:24:30.880 that i don't i don't even know historically if anybody's ever been like that so the fact that he's not

00:24:37.520 afraid of anything he's not afraid to take you in a different direction he's not afraid to upset you

00:24:44.160 he's not afraid to try something that might fail he's not afraid to try something that doesn't work then

00:24:50.320 he has to quickly pivot and change it his lack of fear combined with his common sense we've never seen this

00:25:01.600 we've just never seen this so you know uh i do i do appreciate that the democrats are not blind to it

00:25:12.880 they can see it too now there's a uh a rumor that i'm pretty sure is false that uh trump is at least

00:25:22.720 considering the idea of promoting a two-state situation and backing palestine palestine as a

00:25:31.840 its own country i don't think that's going to happen what do you think i feel like he would have

00:25:39.120 already signaled that now we're seeing that trump is uh made it very clear that israel is not going to be 0.89

00:25:48.320 yankee is chained so he's created some distance from israel without creating any kind of a 0.87

00:25:55.760 you know major economic or other problem um but he's very clearly signaled that he's going to do

00:26:03.280 what's good for the us and that's it if israel doesn't like it israel just has to deal with it

00:26:11.200 so we haven't seen that before um so i went to grok and i wondered how many of the palestinians

00:26:19.360 themselves want a two-state solution and it turns out it's just wildly difficult to get any kind of a

00:26:27.840 read on that uh according to grok but the numbers range from 24 to 74 percent

00:26:35.120 so we don't know exactly because the range is so big we don't know exactly if even the palestinians

00:26:43.200 want a two-state solution i just assumed that they all did but maybe not or maybe it's just that the

00:26:51.840 limitation and the polling over there is so bad that you know it's 74 percent plus could be

00:26:59.600 but then i wondered how many of the israelis want a two-state solution um according to gallup in 2024

00:27:09.520 only 27 percent and if you looked at the only the jewish israelis it's as low as 17 percent

00:27:18.480 um so i i don't even know how many people want it you know if you say a two-state solution to the

00:27:29.600 palestinians do they say to themselves oh no we really want to own the whole thing

00:27:36.320 so we want a one-state solution where we're in charge is that what they're thinking when they

00:27:43.040 answer the question so that would be you know yet another reason why you can't trust the polls on any

00:27:47.760 of this so but here's what i do think i think the opinions in the region would be so far all over

00:27:58.560 the place that if you propose any kind of two-state solution that even the people who said they were in

00:28:06.560 favor of it would be opposed to it because of the specific way you said you wanted to do it

00:28:12.000 all right two-state solution but who's in charge where is it where you know which real estate are

00:28:19.760 you talking about i don't think you could ever get much of an agreement on that so i'm gonna i'm gonna

00:28:27.520 assume that trump will either stay away from that question as in this is your problem not mine

00:28:34.000 uh but i don't think he's gonna come out strong in favor of a palestinian two-state solution

00:28:42.800 just a guess i don't think he will i could be wrong

00:28:48.400 well as you know there was a what's being called a top iranian official but really is an advisor he's

00:28:57.680 well connected but i don't know if he's a top official he said that iran would be willing to

00:29:04.000 make a deal with trump in which there would be some limits on their uranium enrichment and there

00:29:09.760 would be some agreement not to make nuclear weapons and there would be some kind of a

00:29:15.120 inspection to make sure that didn't happen and they might destroy their existing

00:29:20.240 um yeah maybe maybe get rid of some of their stockpiles but uh i don't think that gets close

00:29:29.920 to what the u.s wants so the u.s not only wants you know something in the nuclear realm as part of the

00:29:37.360 deal but they also want iran to stop supporting their terrorist proxies you know hamas and hezbollah

00:29:44.720 and uh i haven't seen that even discussed so would we make a deal if they were going to just

00:29:52.880 keep funding hamas doesn't feel like trump would so we're pretty far away on that and then uh as

00:30:02.960 whitkoff recently said that uh what the trump administration wants is a full dismantlement

00:30:11.040 of tehran tehran's uh nuclear program so that would include three main nuclear facilities completely

00:30:18.800 dismantled i think if i'm right tehran wants to continue having the ability to refine uranium

00:30:30.240 but they would keep their refinement well under the the level that you could make a bomb

00:30:36.560 and that there would be some inspections on that now i don't know if that would ever be enough

00:30:43.440 because it would still leave them with the ability to kind of semi-rapidly change their mind and make

00:30:50.560 a bomb and i don't think trump's gonna live with that so trump actually said that uh that there you know

00:30:58.800 important talks that are happening right now and uh he had some he had some optimism that uh maybe

00:31:06.960 something won't happen but the alternative that trump has laid out is that he will just turn off

00:31:13.120 uh oil sales from iran now right now iran is still selling oil and you know to china mostly

00:31:22.800 um i i guess we would embargo that or uh stop those ships in the water or something

00:31:31.200 but that would happen next if we don't get a deal

00:31:33.760 uh apparently oil prices have fallen in part because of uh trump's comments about iran and uh

00:31:47.280 so yeah so if oil prices fall that would also mean that russia gets less money to pursue their war i don't

00:31:56.160 know if it'd make a enough of a big deal that russia would want to make a deal but that's happening

00:32:03.760 all right uh let's change the topic to ai so according to fortune a bunch of ceos are saying

00:32:14.000 that only a fraction of ai initiatives are delivering a return on investment

00:32:20.720 now you know that i've been more skeptical than most people about what ai will ever be able to do

00:32:28.880 and i've been skeptical that companies will be able to use it in production because i don't think they

00:32:38.800 figured out how to get rid of the hallucinating the hallucinations and they don't know how to make it

00:32:45.040 reasoned yet you know and figure out things that it hasn't encountered before it's just not good at that

00:32:51.440 so so that seems to be a thing now at the same time that the ceos are saying hmm this has been a little

00:33:00.560 underwhelming

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00:33:16.800 okay meta one of the big players in ai they've apparently delayed their rollout of their flagship

00:33:26.320 ai model the next level and the insiders are saying it's because they don't think it

00:33:32.880 is enough of an improvement and there's a lot of insider fighting and stuff so it's sort of suggesting

00:33:41.680 and other people are saying the same thing that ai might be plateauing meaning that there will always

00:33:50.160 be you know new new models coming out that are better than the last one but they're not going to be

00:33:56.720 twice as good you know the next one might be three percent better i'm just making that up but that would

00:34:05.040 suggest that ai is reaching its total potential with the current technology so even if you build a

00:34:15.120 bigger data center and you train it even harder there might not be that much extra that it can go to

00:34:23.920 now if it's true that the ceos are saying it's underwhelming and it's not really paying back

00:34:29.680 and it's also plateauing what is that telling you that's that would be some bad news

00:34:40.400 but then i see some big breakthroughs the ai is doing for example google's deep mind ai is able to

00:34:50.400 come up with algorithms that humans were not capable to come up with to which i say wait a minute

00:34:59.840 are you telling me that in the real world benefit of ai the only thing they had to talk about this week

00:35:07.600 is that it could come up with some algorithms that we couldn't come up with and then i say what would

00:35:13.200 be those algorithms and how are those changing the world well alpha evolve i guess that's the

00:35:22.240 flavor of ai that's doing this came up with more efficient algorithms for

00:35:28.560 several kinds of computations several kinds i say several kinds not just one several kinds for

00:35:36.960 example they came up with a method for calculating um that involved matrices that are a better better

00:35:48.080 method for calculating matrices um and it's better than the strawson algorithm that has been relied on for

00:35:56.320 56 years so how good do you feel about that i i i tell you for 56 years i've been relying on the

00:36:07.520 strawson algorithm to calculate my matrices and the whole time i was getting well there's got to be a

00:36:13.840 better way does anybody have a better and sure enough ai came up with a better way to calculate your

00:36:20.480 matrices matrices better than the strawson algorithm it improves the computational efficiency by reducing

00:36:28.640 the number of calculations required to produce a result

00:36:31.440 so that's not nothing does it feel to you like all the little hints

00:36:42.560 are suggesting that ai may be reaching some kind of a limit that we weren't expecting

00:36:47.840 now the next level of ai you know where it's a super ai and agi and all the whatever

00:36:58.400 we're thinking is that next level that really depends on us inventing things we don't know how

00:37:04.400 to invent yet how long does it take to invent something we don't know how to invent

00:37:11.120 remember i remember i told you the day that the estimate for when we would have humanoid robots that

00:37:18.320 could live in your house and you just tell it oh i've got a new task for you uh you've never done

00:37:25.360 this before but here's how you feed the dog and then it would just watch you do it and go okay we're not

00:37:32.720 really close to that because you've never seen that even demonstrated have you

00:37:37.600 let me give you the demonstration of apparently what is the best our current ai can make a robot do 0.71

00:37:51.920 if you're just listening to this this is me dancing like a like a retard 0.95

00:38:00.160 jazz hands do you think it's a coincidence that every time we see a demo

00:38:06.800 is doing something that you wouldn't need at all

00:38:13.760 are you gonna buy the dancing robot or the robot that can do back somersaults

00:38:23.200 or the one that can carry a predetermined size box into a predetermined size place

00:38:30.240 and not much else um and and then you saw you know some estimates that maybe it'll be

00:38:39.040 two or three years before you buy a humanoid robot that can just do stuff around the house

00:38:45.760 two or three years doesn't suggest that we have current technology that can do it

00:38:50.960 that that's not just tweaking it for two or three years until it works

00:38:55.120 that really depends on inventing something that we haven't invented so i'm a i'm pretty skeptical on

00:39:03.840 this whole ai thing i think we may have we may be approaching the plateau but you know that could

00:39:09.600 change in a minute if somebody's invented something new well are you uh are you watching the supreme court

00:39:18.480 conversations um let me try to explain the supreme court situation because you know you're not all

00:39:25.120 lawyers and you don't have the deep understanding of law and the supreme court the way i do you know with

00:39:33.120 my complete lack of experience in that domain but apparently somehow oh let me just say this in case you

00:39:42.560 can't pick up the sarcasm there's nothing i say about the supreme court that you should trust

00:39:50.480 it's really complicated at the moment so apparently there are two questions birthright citizenship

00:39:57.760 and then the universal injunction thing and that's the thing where a federal judge who in theory would

00:40:07.360 be in charge of you know some small part of the country would make some kind of ruling that says

00:40:14.000 the entire country can't do this thing now it's been applied to a lot of the executive orders from trump

00:40:20.480 so all you need to do is get some lefty judge to say oh yeah uh i i give you an injunction so then nowhere 1.00

00:40:30.640 in the country can you do that and then of course the people who are normal say why can this one judge

00:40:38.320 who's only in charge of this little slice of the country tell the entire rest of the country what it

00:40:44.080 can and can't do now both of these questions you think would be good questions for the supreme court

00:40:52.880 but for reasons i don't fully understand the only way to get it in there was to to jam them together

00:41:00.640 and talk about how birthright citizenship have been blocked with a universal injunctive relief

00:41:07.760 so it would cause the supreme court to have to deal with both issues

00:41:15.200 in ways i don't quite understand so i listened to a bunch of the arguments i didn't understand the

00:41:21.120 damn thing i heard did anybody have the same experience you know some of you might be lawyers so 0.52

00:41:26.960 you understood it but i didn't understand any of it and i don't understand how they can just 0.98

00:41:32.160 staple these two staple these two items together and take them both to the supreme court and expect

00:41:39.680 that you're going to get some kind of answer to them individually don't get it at all absolutely

00:41:46.880 baffled by the whole thing but the smart people the people who know way more than i do and uh politico

00:41:55.360 has some writing by josh gerstein and hassan ali kanu um they're saying that the the birthright part

00:42:05.360 is getting a frosty reception meaning that don't expect the supreme court to come up with any ruling

00:42:12.800 that says that birthright citizenship will go away or be limited so it looks like maybe both the

00:42:20.400 lefty and the righty parts of the supreme court are just saying hey we got precedent we got clear

00:42:28.320 writing in the constitution we're not going to change it but the situation of the uh judges that are

00:42:38.800 making these broad um rulings that affect the whole country there does seem to be some wiggle room on that

00:42:46.080 one so we don't know you know it's too early to know how anybody's going to vote but there's a

00:42:51.920 possibility that when they're all done nothing about birthright citizenship which is you get to be a

00:43:00.000 citizen if you're born in this country probably nothing about that will change but the idea that a 0.76

00:43:07.760 judge can you know a federal judge in one part of the country can do something that affects the whole

00:43:14.640 rest of the country there might be some changes coming in that domain but that's uh that's speculative at

00:43:22.880 this point well as you know trump's big beautiful bill is getting ready for the prime time they're

00:43:33.600 they're still marking it up and playing with it but basically they've got the bill kind of close

00:43:40.320 and uh i think trump's kind of happy with it but rand paul says uh quote it will be a record for

00:43:48.560 congress to raise the debt five trillion dollars but also indicates that this year the deficit will be

00:43:56.400 over two trillion but it means they're anticipating close to three trillion for the next year

00:44:02.080 so so rand paul is questioning the raising the debt ceiling by five trillion and uh

00:44:14.160 so yeah and especially in the context of doge was supposed to save us all this money

00:44:19.680 but we don't see anything like that we don't see anything that looks like a doge saving

00:44:24.480 where is it what happened to it did we go through all that for nothing um and uh paul says he summarizes

00:44:34.720 it by saying it's really a slap in the face that those of us who were excited about elon musk and doge

00:44:40.560 and all the cuts well that's me that's me i was excited about doge and all the cuts and i consider this bill

00:44:50.240 a slap in my face i feel insulted literally insulted um and let me let me just put it this way

00:45:05.200 congress had one thing that they had to get right we'd like them to get everything right 0.94

00:45:16.720 but they had one fucking thing they needed to get right which is not to spend us into a certain death 1.00

00:45:23.920 and those motherfuckers republicans i'm only talking about you republicans you motherfuckers 1.00

00:45:30.640 came up with a bill that will spend us into oblivion and you fucking know it you fucking know it and 1.00

00:45:39.760 you're doing it right in front of our faces am i insulted yes can i support republicans when they're 1.00

00:45:46.960 doing this right to our face no no fuck you i'm out i am so out you need to at least put a little 1.00

00:45:56.160 effort into it don't try to shove this up our fucking asses one more time do you think you didn't 1.00

00:46:04.240 get the message that the public is done with this we're so done with this go back take five or ten percent 0.99

00:46:13.440 off or whatever you need to do it's gonna hurt here's the problem we have a goal which is to

00:46:23.200 have fiscal responsibility but we don't have a system that can ever get that for us because the

00:46:30.720 problem is that if any politician cut anything enough to make a difference they would not get

00:46:37.600 re-elected so we shouldn't be surprised that the people who are in the system that they will be punished

00:46:44.880 to do the right thing they will be punished they will be punished if they do the right thing which

00:46:51.360 is cut the spending they will be punished even if they take something that only ten percent of the

00:46:58.720 public cares about that's enough not to get re-elected they would be punished so as long as we have a 0.99

00:47:05.600 fucking system that guarantees we're going to go down the fucking drain don't ask me to sign off on this 1.00

00:47:13.520 don't ask me to pat you on the fucking head don't ask me to say good job guys no this is an insult 1.00

00:47:21.520 this is an insult ran paul i'm on your side and i feel like the public just has to take over this process 1.00

00:47:34.320 i feel like the public needs to just say we're going to get rid of everybody unless you

00:47:43.600 can fix this now i don't know any way that that can work but i'll tell you one thing the congress 0.91

00:47:51.040 can't do this thing and it's the most important fucking thing and if you can't do the most important 0.96

00:47:56.720 fucking thing to keep us all alive to keep us fucking alive you got to go something's got to change 0.99

00:48:06.880 and am i happy with president trump who apparently seems to be perfectly happy with kicking this can 1.00

00:48:15.120 down the road at the age of whatever fuck he is nope absolutely not no i i can tell you that trump did 0.97

00:48:26.560 amazing work in the middle east i think really just historically amazing work but if he gives us this 0.98

00:48:34.640 budget how am i supposed to support that and it doesn't have anything to do with republican or democrat 0.98

00:48:42.560 it's doom it's the end of your fucking life unless somebody's come up with some magical way that 0.97

00:48:52.640 everything will be better the the only thing i saw that was like this glimmer of hope was somebody 0.98

00:48:59.280 in the comments on x said well you know nothing about the budget will matter when ai reaches

00:49:06.400 you know this certain level ai will change everything so so debt won't matter etc really

00:49:12.400 is is that why the uh the fortune 500 companies say hmm this ai isn't working out so much

00:49:23.120 you're gonna have to give us some kind of a plan that doesn't look like you're gonna kill us 0.99

00:49:29.760 and this is absolutely a non-starter so every one of you fuckers you got something to explain to the 1.00

00:49:39.440 public you've insulted us you've failed you've set us on a track to absolute destruction and you'd better 0.99

00:49:48.880 fucking figure it out now again i do have some sympathy for the fact that they're in a system 0.96

00:49:57.360 where they will be personally punished for doing the right thing 0.99

00:50:00.320 i feel like the public or or maybe it's trump i mean you know he he's a singular character he could

00:50:10.400 he could do it i just don't know that he would i i think that it's political suicide to cut any part

00:50:20.160 of the budget for any any reason whatsoever just absolute suicide so i don't know where this goes

00:50:28.320 but don't expect me to be mindlessly supporting republicans when they're trying to kill us all

00:50:35.440 that that's not gonna happen that's just not gonna happen when i found out my friend got a

00:50:40.800 great deal on a wool coat from winners i started wondering is every fabulous item i see from winners

00:50:47.760 like that woman over there with the designer jeans are those from winners ooh are those beautiful gold 1.00

00:50:53.680 earrings did she pay full price or that leather tote or that cashmere sweater or those knee-high boots

00:50:59.520 that dress that jacket those shoes is anyone paying full price for anything stop wondering

00:51:06.240 start winning winners find fabulous for less well not only are they trying to take away all of our money

00:51:13.680 and destroy the country but now senator mike lee republican he wants to make porn a crime in the united states

00:51:23.040 so all pornography would be basically become a crime now my first question about this was would that

00:51:34.000 include only fans would the only fans be able to still do their only fans thing because if you got rid of

00:51:43.680 all sort of classic porn wouldn't men turn more to only fans and wouldn't that turn women more into 0.87

00:51:54.080 prostitutes online 0.75

00:51:57.760 i don't know i would worry a little bit about the unintended consequences of this one you know i don't

00:52:03.200 know enough about it but um i don't know it also looks like a limitation on free speech and everything else

00:52:14.320 so you can have your opinion on that

00:52:19.200 um u.s wholesale uh prices so the according to the daily wire so u.s wholesale prices had the biggest

00:52:27.520 decline in five years flying in the face of economist predictions at the same time the news is saying

00:52:35.280 that walmart's getting ready to raise their prices substantially because of tariffs so if you're not

00:52:43.760 you're well versed in economics how can it be true that walmart's going to raise its prices

00:52:49.360 at the same time which would be the signal for everybody else to do it really

00:52:53.600 uh at the same time that we've seen the biggest drop in five years and the answer is there's a

00:52:59.440 timing difference so that the tariff stuff hasn't really hit the economy yet and we don't know how

00:53:05.920 big it will be but uh nothing that has happened so far is predictive of what will happen over the summer

00:53:14.720 and the news is pretending it is the news is pretending that that uh because there's some kind of weird

00:53:22.880 disconnect between the trump tariff uh action and the fact that prices are actually going down

00:53:31.280 i think the news is trying to convince you that there won't be a connection because there hasn't

00:53:36.560 been a connection so far that is not true there is a timing difference we might see some further decreases

00:53:44.800 in prices but when the tariffs start kicking in over the summer it's only going to go in one direction

00:53:53.440 now it could be that the walmart's are the ones where the prices happen maybe we won't see it in some

00:54:00.720 bigger areas like tech and stuff like that maybe but don't be confused if walmart's getting ready to

00:54:09.920 raise prices and they've announced it prices are going up

00:54:13.920 um according to politico joe biden uh probably cost the democrats the white house in 2024

00:54:26.560 through his feebleness and his insistence of being in the race anyway but now they're thinking that he's

00:54:33.440 gonna uh completely hobble them in 2028. uh i'm gonna push back on a little this

00:54:40.480 this so politico's the writing is from adam brand and holly otterbean um and i guess they're talking

00:54:49.200 about the fact that the democrats are still not coming clean about the fact that they were running

00:54:55.760 a candidate who is mentally incompetent and if they don't come clean on that 0.86

00:55:01.760 and find some way to deal with it productively 0.95

00:55:05.360 it might hang over them all the way to 2028

00:55:09.360 i'm not so sure because 2028 is so far away that we're gonna have a whole bunch of other things to think about

00:55:18.480 and i was watching the news yesterday and have you had this experience yet it'll be a podcast or a

00:55:26.080 news show and they're just saying the same thing about biden over and over well they should have known

00:55:33.840 well the tapper book is really just trying to give the press some kind of out well certainly the insiders knew

00:55:42.000 why didn't the insiders tell us and it's all the same now i don't believe that the political right

00:55:50.080 and their podcasters and slash news people i don't think they can keep telling that same freaking story 0.59

00:55:56.960 for four more years can i three more years

00:56:02.000 so even as powerful as that story is i only kind of see it from the republican side

00:56:09.680 and then the democrats are like okay you know you got a pretty good point there

00:56:14.560 but i don't think it's got three years of legs

00:56:19.600 i think it'll be based on how trump did for the next three years and based how the economy does and

00:56:27.360 i just don't know that that's got the legs to make a difference in 2028 but we'll see

00:56:34.000 at the moment the books coming out are driving the headlines

00:56:38.000 and there will probably be some more books and they will sort of all be the same

00:56:42.160 oh here's another insider who says that he noticed something was wrong with biden we know that

00:56:49.440 there's nothing new

00:56:53.120 but governor whitmer was on cnn so here's another example so even cnn is trying to get people to admit

00:57:00.880 that they knew but cnn is doing the trick where if they can get you to think that the problem was the

00:57:09.600 biden insiders were lying then you won't notice that cnn is uh

00:57:17.680 didn't somehow pick up on the fact that you could tell just by looking at biden in public

00:57:22.480 fox news knew it how did fox news know that biden was mentally incompetent and uh probably 70 million

00:57:33.680 republicans could tell every time they saw him in public and cnn's trying to paper over that

00:57:40.240 that essentially changed history they're trying to rewrite history so the problem was not their

00:57:46.960 observational skills which was the real problem well it wasn't even their observational skills

00:57:53.920 it was their willingness to say they noticed um so whitmer was asked you know since she was very

00:58:04.160 involved in the campaign um you know if she didn't notice biden's decline and she said i was busy

00:58:12.080 working i didn't see the president directly are they going to really get away with that

00:58:18.000 that that that all these people who are working on behalf of the president didn't really spend much

00:58:24.480 time with them yeah i didn't really see him much i can't blame me again they're trying to make it look

00:58:31.760 like you couldn't tell every time he was in public so anyway um so there's a story about uh

00:58:45.280 a soros foundation director so this is somebody who's literally the director of the soros foundation like i

00:58:56.720 just said who uh who was sort of admitting according to the national pulse that the ngos were using the

00:59:05.360 law fair to protect illegals against public wishes and so this uh fellow greg uh maniatis

00:59:14.880 the director at the george soros foundation was saying that uh the sort of the activities of

00:59:22.000 his organization um created chaos at the border now the reason i found this story interesting

00:59:31.040 is that he's using the word chaos to describe what they had created he said quote chaos is the

00:59:38.320 defining story of failure among progressives maniatis said pinpointing the refusal of democratic leaders

00:59:45.920 to address a quote chaotic border system particularly over the last decade is it possible that the

00:59:55.360 democrats use of chaos as their their one big word against trump is it possible now that the word is just

01:00:03.360 become normalized to the point where they're using against themselves you know it seems like the

01:00:11.600 democrats are now competing to see who can say the worst thing about democrats

01:00:16.800 right because there's a little bit of competition of who could be the most honest about knowing

01:00:24.720 that biden was mentally incompetent but now there's further competition to say oh god we were bad about 0.68

01:00:34.560 that border yeah yeah i gotta admit we sure we're bad about the border and they're even using their own code word 0.83

01:00:42.880 chaos i don't know it struck me that that was fun

01:00:48.800 i saw a story that at first i thought was terrible but maybe it isn't um governor newsom of california

01:00:59.200 in his uh new budget he's calling for closing yet another prison in california which would be the fifth one

01:01:07.920 that would have been closed during the binded or the newsom administration

01:01:11.520 now when you hear that he's going to close five prisons or or close the fifth one four have already

01:01:19.360 been closed doesn't that suggest to you that he's letting criminals out or whether somehow they'll just

01:01:26.640 let the criminals run free and not put them in prison well maybe but his argument is that crime is down

01:01:35.520 and they just don't need it is that possible do you think crime is actually down and falling

01:01:45.280 and that it's falling at a predictable enough rate that he can close another prison

01:01:52.320 that would be kind of awesome do you think it would have anything to do with closing the border

01:01:57.520 yes so it might be that closing the border although i doubt that had anything to do with the first four

01:02:07.520 that he closed it could be the closing the border has a predictable effect on crime that the governor

01:02:14.560 of california is saying you know what we might have too many prisons i don't know if they're connected

01:02:21.440 yet so i'm just speculating well because democrats uh can't they they seem to be unable to do anything

01:02:32.960 right in terms of messaging uh now some democratic lawmakers are pushing hard again for reparations

01:02:41.920 so uh representative summer lee democrat pennsylvania she's going to reintroduce 0.78

01:02:48.080 uh and this has been first introduced in 2023 by cory bush but they're going to reintroduce some reparations

01:02:56.800 um ideas and uh trying to make up for all those bad things in the past what do you think about that

01:03:07.280 do you do you think that uh the thing that will help the democrats uh in the midterms and in 2028 will

01:03:14.640 be their push for reparations i i'd love to see uh james carville's opinion about that paging james carville

01:03:25.920 do you think this is the time to talk about reparations do you think they seized the moment just right

01:03:37.200 i'm seeing something online it's not a big trend yet but it's going under the tag of uh

01:03:44.640 black fatigue is that it black do i have that right black fatigue but it's the idea that just

01:03:51.360 people are getting tired of listening to uh black specific problems and it does feel to me like this

01:04:00.880 isn't the right moment for that and you know my take on it is i used to be um extra interested in

01:04:10.560 black american problems most of my adult life under the theory that if you could help the people who

01:04:16.480 were in the deepest hole uh that would be the best thing for the country so if you could take somebody

01:04:23.520 somebody from can't get a job to got a job or can't get into college to got into college or doesn't have a

01:04:32.480 good education to got a good education that you get enormous benefits you know better than if somebody

01:04:40.640 got a 10 raise at the job they already had so my thinking was well just make sense i mean just make

01:04:47.280 sense that you would focus in that area because that's where the the deepest problem is you reverse

01:04:52.720 that you really get some some good societal gains but i'm just so tired of it all and now i just think

01:05:02.880 everybody's got problems there's nobody with special problems and so when i hear any group saying

01:05:10.160 i've got a special problems and you should give me some money i just think i'm bored and i don't care

01:05:16.400 you're boring me and i don't care do they have a point i don't care do they have a good historical

01:05:26.400 argument for reparations i don't care because everybody's got a good argument for why they

01:05:34.400 should get some extra too so do i i've been discriminated against for 50 years

01:05:41.360 do you care no you don't care why should i care about anybody else so no i have i have some kind of

01:05:51.120 fatigue don't care but i think james carville will be funny if he weighs in on this because if the

01:05:59.520 democrats don't have anything that's working that's the worst time to throw this into the mix

01:06:05.600 it's just not going to get you any extra votes well according to the news the the eu is going to

01:06:19.040 put new sanctions on russia because putin skipped that peace talks in turkey so poor little zelensky

01:06:29.120 went down to turkey and he thought he was going to meet with putin and then putin just ghosted him

01:06:36.400 which to me is funny it's funny that he ghosted him but then you know he sent some low-level people

01:06:42.720 and then they all said well this is worthless so they just already ended the meeting um trump has

01:06:48.320 said that he's already he's ready to meet with putin to try to work things out but apparently the eu

01:06:54.960 is going to put some extra sanctions on russia so we'll see if that makes any difference

01:07:02.000 um but it does suggest that the trump approach of making all wars commercial wars you know he if you

01:07:13.440 want to be part of the world commercial system you better stop your physical wars

01:07:18.560 um but we'll see if trump can get something done there in other news newsmax is reporting that uh

01:07:26.080 health and human services is gonna stop advising covid shots for kids and pregnant women

01:07:33.120 to which i said to myself wait they were still advising that all right are any of you surprised that they were

01:07:41.840 still advising that

01:07:43.120 you don't have to be a doctor to know that that was a bad idea you just have to be a little bit

01:07:52.480 aware of the news my god really and and they haven't stopped yet that they've just announced that

01:08:00.800 they're going to how about just get this done how about just saying pick up the phone or write a memo or

01:08:09.840 sign an executive order how about stopping it right now why are you gonna wait a week jesus all right

01:08:19.840 got a little worked up today that's all i got for you today see if you can embarrass your republican

01:08:28.400 representatives into doing their job for the first time ever um see what we can do i don't have a good

01:08:34.400 idea there maybe you do maybe ai or something uh but i'm going to talk uh privately to the people on

01:08:43.440 locals if you're on rumble or youtube or x thanks for joining and i will see you again

01:08:50.400 same time same place tomorrow and locals coming at you privately and

01:08:58.400 where are you um

01:09:28.400 Thank you.

01:09:58.400 Thank you.

01:10:28.400 Thank you.

01:10:58.400 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - May 16, 2025

Episode 2841 CWSA 05⧸16⧸25

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