Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2865 CWSA 06⧸11⧸25

00:00:00.000 in the stock market it looks like it's a little bit up all right all right we'll take it

00:00:07.540 let's uh get this show on the road

00:00:11.760 because it's what you deserve

00:00:16.760 there we go everything's working now

00:00:30.420 good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight

00:00:45.840 of human civilization it's called coffee with scott adams and you've never had a better time

00:00:53.920 but if you'd like to take a chance to take this experience up to levels that no one can even

00:01:02.300 understand with their tiny shiny human brains all you need for that is a cup or mug or a glass

00:01:09.680 a tanker chalice or stein it's hard for me to say chalice or stein a canteen jug or flask

00:01:17.600 a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the

00:01:24.820 unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine at the end of the day the thing that makes everything better

00:01:28.960 it's called the simultaneous sip and it's going to happen right now go

00:01:34.340 sound is working

00:01:41.540 everything's coming together well the uh may month of may cpi

00:01:52.980 uh in other words the inflation measure was 2.4 percent which was in line with expectations

00:02:02.900 so if that's what you expected you got what you wanted

00:02:08.100 uh meanwhile in california it is now illegal for drivers to hold their phones to view a map

00:02:17.620 so you can put your phone into a holder you can have it in your pocket but you can't have it in one

00:02:26.340 hand while you're driving um that should be on a list with many other things you should not be able to

00:02:35.140 drive while you've got that in your hand for example i'll say a makeup brush right when when you feel safer

00:02:48.180 if nobody can drive with one hand and put makeup on with the other

00:02:53.780 yeah that's just one example i'll bet you could think of another

00:02:59.140 but uh moving on uh the uh house which would be congress um well part of congress is uh launching

00:03:09.620 a probe into harvard over their just well alleged discrimination in hiring

00:03:17.620 uh that's uh washington examiner has a story and uh what do you think

00:03:24.820 then do you think when they look into harvard that they will find any

00:03:31.460 possible discrimination against white men in hiring do you think there's any chance

00:03:39.380 that they don't discriminate against white men of course they do so we'll see uh how much trouble they 0.88

00:03:49.140 get into over that

00:03:52.980 meanwhile uh you might remember the reporter uh terry moran who was working for abc news but

00:04:03.940 he made some unfortunately highly personal sounding hatred posts about uh stephen miller

00:04:15.140 and he's uh also said some bad things about trump but he was uh put on some kind of uh leave

00:04:22.740 and now they say abc says his contract is up and he will not be renewed so what happens with all these

00:04:35.380 uh biased news people who get fired for being biased and terrible how many of them will start their own

00:04:45.380 podcast that becomes wildly economically successful do any of you think that don lemon is making money

00:04:56.420 on his podcast because i kind of doubt it and what about uh uh what's his name uh jim

00:05:06.820 jim uh jim uh who always would be uh yelling at the president for one thing or another do you think

00:05:16.100 oh casa no jimacasa um what are the odds he's making any money with this podcast

00:05:26.020 probably not very high and every one of these uh people who get fired from the mainstream media

00:05:33.140 they have no place to go sort of like me actually same situation when they get canceled they end up

00:05:42.580 starting podcasts i saw um was it chris cuomo who was predicting that uh that even joe rogan show

00:05:56.420 would go down in viewership and it would be because so many people are entering that space

00:06:03.860 and a lot of them are really good so the idea is that the space that you have enjoyed for podcasting

00:06:13.140 will be full of highly qualified people will be sucking up all the time and attention that i was

00:06:20.500 taking from you well we'll see we'll see because the podcasting world is a very different skill

00:06:33.140 all right what else is going on here oh um so according to the uh wall street journal as uh being reported

00:06:42.900 here by zero hedge um in the final years of the biden administration they had launched um the biden

00:06:53.140 people had launched an investigation into elon musk's uh foreign associates so they were just apparently

00:07:05.140 they were spying on who came and went to musk's uh properties from other countries now what crime do you think

00:07:17.860 do you think they were looking for the answer is any any crime they were they were looking for anything

00:07:27.700 because uh i think it was already obvious that musk was not going to be helpful to biden

00:07:35.380 and i think they were just weaponizing government and going after a potential trump ally before he was

00:07:44.980 as much a trump ally and i guess they didn't find anything because nothing came of it

00:07:53.540 but just think of that the department of homeland security and the justice department

00:08:01.860 were investigating musk for nothing for nothing that there's no there's no allegation

00:08:13.460 they simply were you know looking into his associates to see if there was anything they

00:08:19.300 could make something out of god anyway uh over in france where you thought the french were more

00:08:30.100 open-minded than the rest of us well it turns out that they would like to classify the x platform as an

00:08:37.700 adult site because it has a lot of adult content on it um and they want uh france wants the users of x

00:08:49.300 to have to have to show an id to use the platform now not every time they use it obviously but i think

00:08:57.300 it uh they're also doing the same thing with porn hub and some other uh porn sites so they're being

00:09:05.300 at least they're being consistent it's not there it's not that they're going after x in particular but um

00:09:14.740 apparently there's going to be a little bit of friction there so we'll see when i

00:09:19.220 found out my friend got a great deal on a wool coat from winners i started wondering is every

00:09:25.220 fabulous item i see from winners like that woman over there with the designer jeans are those from 1.00

00:09:31.060 winners ooh are those beautiful gold earrings did she pay full price or that leather tote or that 1.00

00:09:36.740 cashmere sweater or those knee-high boots that dress that jacket those shoes is anyone paying full

00:09:43.140 price for anything stop wondering start winning winners find fabulous for less speaking of musk

00:09:54.180 there appears to be some kind of uh understanding that is developing here between trump and musk

00:10:02.900 uh and uh this started with um we think they had a phone call but uh musk posted quote i regret some of my

00:10:15.860 posts about president uh trump last week now oh he says they went too far

00:10:22.260 now how many of you would call that an apology he's got regret and he says why he regrets it because it went too

00:10:36.340 far is that an apology well you know an apology to your spouse would have to be a lot deeper and more

00:10:48.020 personal but in in terms of famous people who you have thicker skin than they're used to the stuff

00:10:58.340 that's pretty close sort of it's in the neighborhood of an apology it it at least acknowledges that he was

00:11:08.500 in the wrong which is in the wrong which is the important part because you know if you're dealing

00:11:15.140 with trump and your your conclusion is okay the problem was all me um i regret it i should not have done

00:11:24.420 that here's why that's not bad that's not bad it's not technically an apology but among famous people

00:11:34.660 people yeah it's not bad so um and then i guess trump was asked if they if he could ever you know work

00:11:44.900 with musk again and trump says uh i guess i could i guess i could so that would suggest that maybe there's

00:11:56.580 some kind of agreement going on there that they that they know they're better with each other than without

00:12:03.300 now this might be related or it might not be so see if you think this next story is related to the musk

00:12:14.260 and trump story so speaker mike johnson um he told the reporters that republicans plan to launch a quote

00:12:26.180 multi-front war against the deficit he says uh every dollar matters we're serious about this the republican

00:12:35.460 party is doing everything blah blah but then he said and here's the important part he said uh this

00:12:42.740 recent rescission package is a critical step and it's one of many so it's the one of many part that's the

00:12:52.340 important part uh according to uh speaker johnson there'll be several of these and they'll come from

00:13:00.900 the white house who will work together with the uh the work with the administration to cut all the

00:13:06.980 fraud waste and abuse so what mike johnson is saying is that there will be doge like cuts but that they're

00:13:18.260 going to come in separate packages and it's a presumed understood part of the process now doesn't that

00:13:28.740 sound like something that musk would have asked for in order to stand down and stop criticizing the big

00:13:37.940 beautiful bill i feel like the thing he could have asked for and should have is um it's one thing if

00:13:46.580 you tell me that this package is not the one that's gonna make all the big cuts

00:13:52.580 but you're gonna have to tell me which one does you you're gonna have to put something out there

00:14:00.900 that says we are going to cut expenses with these subsequent spending packages that's what

00:14:09.380 johnson's saying now i i think this had always been the plan but i don't remember mike johnson saying it

00:14:20.020 as clearly as he's saying it now so it makes me wonder if the outcome of elon talking to trump

00:14:29.700 uh and getting bad at them and you know maybe hopefully getting over it is that at some point

00:14:37.140 maybe speaker mike johnson agreed to give a little bit more detail to the public about how they plan to

00:14:45.620 attack the debt now i don't know if this is enough so i you know i i would love to tell you oh yeah if

00:14:55.220 they if they have these subsequent spending bills that they don't call spending bills and they cut them

00:15:04.740 well we're in good shape i don't know that that will be the case but it's definitely what we needed to

00:15:11.060 here we all needed to hear we all needed to hear that they have some kind of plan for cutting expenses so

00:15:18.260 that helps

00:15:21.380 um

00:15:24.020 according to uh

00:15:27.140 a new study uh sci post is talking about this eric nolan um there's a when there's a perceived

00:15:36.500 social breakdown it uh fuels the desire for authoritarian leaders there's a new psychology

00:15:44.500 study that says so when society is falling apart the uh the members of society are far more likely to say

00:15:56.660 could i just have a dictator to you know work this out for us because 0.70

00:16:03.140 democracy isn't going to work in this chaos and uh is there a way they could have saved any money

00:16:12.420 on that study can you think of anything they could have done instead of doing the study

00:16:21.140 that would have gotten them to the same conclusion well yes they could have asked scott

00:16:28.820 because if you said to me scott do you think that during times of uh you know great uncertainty

00:16:37.940 people will want stronger leaders i would have said duh yeah every time and i didn't even know that was a

00:16:48.660 question of course i will and if things look like they're going fine what happens then

00:16:56.260 when things look like they're going fine that's how you elected jimmy carter

00:17:05.300 you get jimmy carter so

00:17:09.140 i thought everybody knew that that when things look uh uncertain that people want to authoritate

00:17:16.500 authoritarian leader who can take charge

00:17:20.100 you know so maybe that's exactly where trump needs to be

00:17:29.860 um trump says uh in a post on truth social he said we made a great decision in sending the national

00:17:40.420 guard so do you think so if we had not done so la would have been completely obliterated

00:17:50.820 the very incompetent governor he puts it in quotes governor uh gavin newscom

00:17:59.620 and mayor karen bass should be saying thank you president trump you are so wonderful

00:18:07.060 um we would be nothing without you sir

00:18:09.860 every time he writes it's funny but uh here's what i think we will never know what would have happened

00:18:21.780 in la if there had not been national guard but are you happy that trump um went full authoritarian and went

00:18:35.540 heavy on the law enforcement through you know the national guard um are you happy about that

00:18:44.660 i am i'm happy about it because i don't know if it you know

00:18:50.260 increased or decreased any any kind of uh violence i doubt it increased it it seems kind of unlikely it made

00:19:01.060 it worse but that that's what the democrats are claiming so i would say during great uncertainty

00:19:08.420 when uh when uh when our cities are inflamed look back at that psychology study and ask yourself did you

00:19:18.020 want a strong leader this week or did you want a weak leader this week

00:19:24.660 and if you're being honest you're probably saying to yourself you know a lot of uh stuff on fire a lot of

00:19:35.300 uncertainty i wouldn't mind having a strong leader and trump stands in and he gives you exactly what you want

00:19:45.060 he is very good at reading the room so his his timing for being more assertive as a leader if if that's even

00:19:56.020 possible um was perfect uh oh i'm running out of ink on my printer well uh karen bass has declared a local

00:20:09.380 emergency emergency for just one part of la and so curfews are in place from 8 pm to 6 a.m

00:20:18.740 now why did that take so long so trump is there with the national guard in like no time at all

00:20:29.060 and the mayor it took until now to come up with this idea of a curfew

00:20:36.020 if a if a curfew is useful didn't they wait a little little bit too long or are these riots supposed

00:20:46.260 to last forever like how long are they going to last uh i would think that the you know the natural life

00:20:55.620 you know life of a protest like this would be i don't know two weeks maximum two weeks

00:21:02.980 but uh if a curfew helps um i'm gonna say why wasn't that the first thing you did

00:21:13.060 you know once you saw um foreign flags and cars on fire and graffiti on things

00:21:21.860 wasn't there an earlier time when you might decide you know what a little bit of a curfew would help

00:21:28.420 all right well better than nothing

00:21:34.260 so uh governor newsom had a little embarrassment because he planned this major announcement where he

00:21:41.220 put on a suit and tie and acted like he was a governor and he wanted to say some things that were

00:21:48.340 bad about trump mostly uh while using the excuse of the protests in la as a reason to talk to the country

00:21:58.740 and uh first uh several minutes of his broadcast there was a an audio problem

00:22:08.820 so it looked really sort of amateurish because the audio didn't work for a while they got it working

00:22:16.340 finally it was a recorded recorded piece um but it didn't it didn't come off well

00:22:24.340 because it made him look like uh he was running a crappy operation and then there's this weird story

00:22:35.940 where newsom apparently made the claim that trump had never called him or called him back i don't know

00:22:43.060 which one it was but trump um responded to the claim that he had never called newsom by showing uh

00:22:55.700 fox news host john roberts his call log and there it was uh right on the phone a call log of 16 minutes

00:23:06.820 where he spoke with newsom now if you're newsom and i get that he's a you know professional liar because he's a politician 0.54

00:23:18.580 they're all professional liars but why would you tell a lie that could so easily be detected 0.84

00:23:27.540 and debunked did he forget he talked to trump or did he think nobody would check

00:23:36.580 or did it work because the people who were watching whatever trump said are different from

00:23:42.900 the people watching whatever he says so he can make any claim he wants and there sticks so probably

00:23:51.860 i don't know the three quarters of his base who ever heard him say that trump didn't call

00:23:59.380 they probably still believe he didn't call even though there's a call log and you know it's a national

00:24:05.140 story that he did so anyway so how is uh msnbc handling the coverage of the uh protests well one of them

00:24:18.500 whose name i don't know uh he uh he said that he was reminded of a slavery

00:24:26.500 and he's reminded of the slave holders versus the slave catchers and uh he didn't want to live in a 0.55

00:24:37.700 world where citizens were forced to decide if they should be helping ice or not helping ice and so he

00:24:47.540 made an analogy to slavery and escaped slaves now i've got a little advice for you

00:24:56.500 if you ever hear anybody bolstering their opinion about a topic by making an analogy to slavery

00:25:07.940 the holocaust or hitler uh and there's probably more i could add to the list but those are not serious

00:25:18.180 people those are people whose filter um is just completely broken because you shouldn't need any kind

00:25:28.740 of analogy for something that's obviously wrong and the argument is enough well why would you have to

00:25:36.740 make an analogy to slavery if it were bad wouldn't you be able to say oh let me just describe it

00:25:46.340 and there's nothing else you need to know you don't need to know well does it share three of 17 points with

00:25:55.380 this historical event that you know was horrible in its own right no anybody who needs to make an analogy

00:26:05.700 to the holocaust to hitler or to slavery they don't have an argument so they're sort of flailing

00:26:15.460 away there all right here's a story which is in the news but i can't tell if it's fake news or partial

00:26:27.140 fake news so i'll watch the comments maybe you know so the the allegation is that the uh either ice or border

00:26:38.900 patrol um was starting to target home depot day workers now those would be the people who at least 0.64

00:26:48.820 where i live um the illegal immigrants would often gather in the parking lot of home depot because people

00:26:59.060 would um need projects and so you could drive up to the little group of them and say i need uh you and

00:27:09.060 you to help me uh dig a ditch today or put up a rock wall and then you drive them to your house

00:27:17.300 and they work all day and then somehow they get home i don't know how and so the

00:27:27.540 the allegation is that ice is uh targeting them and has targeted them and especially

00:27:35.780 uh in the paramount area uh they targeted home depot allegedly and i'm asking you if this is real

00:27:48.900 and that that caused uh the protests now does that sound true because here's the uh here's the problem

00:28:00.740 um there there was one story in april where um there was somebody with a arrest warrant who was one of

00:28:11.780 the day workers and when either ice or border patrol i forget um went to arrest the one who had a you know

00:28:20.740 open arrest warrant they did what they have told us they have to do which is uh in the process of going

00:28:29.860 after the one person if it puts them in contact with a bunch of other people who are illegal but

00:28:37.700 they were not the targeted ones they might get deported now that's something that ice and tom holman

00:28:47.540 have been saying since the very start you know and i understand it i don't love it but i understand it

00:28:55.700 it that if your job is ice um and you're in a room full of people that you don't to be illegal

00:29:05.860 what are you gonna do are you gonna ignore it i mean it's still a crime so the part that i

00:29:13.780 liked about tom holman's approach was the worst first which makes me very comfortable

00:29:23.220 um and uh if they were if they were targeting home depot people just because it was easy and you know

00:29:33.780 they're standing right there in public and you'd know exactly what they were um they're not really

00:29:40.580 the criminals they're not the worst and it would be really bad publicity you know a bad brand image

00:29:49.140 look for ice to be going after the people who literally are standing there saying can i help

00:29:57.380 you build a wall you know can i work for you at you know below market wages they're not really the

00:30:06.420 dangerous ones so i know that many of you are going to say uh ship everybody home there's no such thing as

00:30:15.140 um anybody who should stay if they're illegal i get it but wouldn't you agree with me

00:30:23.460 that if you were ice you should stick with your plan of worst first and the story about the home depot

00:30:33.220 would be the opposite of the worst first so i don't know if the story is even true

00:30:39.380 because i i can't imagine ice saying you know this whole worst first thing has worked so far but

00:30:50.340 now we got all the bad ones so we'll start taking the day workers from the parking lot

00:30:56.980 i don't know doesn't seem like a good plan so i'm gonna say that i don't believe this is real news

00:31:04.420 or that there's something about the news that's you know undisclosed like you know maybe there were

00:31:12.500 some known gang members within that group or something but now there's something wrong with

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00:32:20.980 casino.com for details please play responsibly um according to a news nation federal agents have uh arrested more

00:32:34.980 than 100 people that this big nebraska uh food plant glenn valley foods in omaha and i guess the workers

00:32:46.980 ran for cover and but they got a hundred of them now is that a case of worst first

00:32:56.420 and so the question i have is has something changed in the priority of the deportations

00:33:05.380 and i'm not arguing whether it should or should not right at the moment i'm just asking

00:33:10.980 did something happen where they decided that worst first did make sense um i certainly understand that

00:33:22.500 if a hundred of them were working at this one glenn valley foods wouldn't that be a hundred jobs that american

00:33:32.500 american citizens might have instead you know that it's indoor work and it seems like it wouldn't

00:33:41.780 take a ton of training to get somebody to do the jobs within a food plant so

00:33:51.620 you know uh i'm not going to say i'm in favor of it or against it um i'm just wondering if it's a change in strategy

00:34:02.500 uh you say you think it's a new sheriff in town move to uh scare scare him into not working in america in

00:34:12.660 the first place maybe um and msnbc is reporting the ice is gonna deploy tactical units to five sanctuary

00:34:26.580 cities run by democratic mayors so that would include seattle chicago new york philadelphia and northern

00:34:35.460 virginia now that part seems like business is normal because the sanctuary cities would presumably be

00:34:46.900 where a lot of the worst of the worst are so that makes sense um and it does suggest

00:34:54.820 that ice and trump are not backing down because they're gonna go right after the bluest cities

00:35:02.820 so there's something to be said about that

00:35:08.260 um do you remember la monica mckiver she's representative house of representatives and she 1.00

00:35:14.900 was the one who was accused of forcibly interfering with the federal law enforcement officers

00:35:21.220 um gateway pundit is writing about this and apparently a federal grand jury has returned a

00:35:30.260 three-count indictment charging her with forcibly impeding and interfering with federal law enforcement

00:35:39.300 at the delaney hall detention center in newark last month and apparently she she's facing a maximum

00:35:48.180 of 17 years in prison how bad was it you know when i when i hear the uh the penalties

00:36:00.580 for some things i say to myself seriously 17 years for a middle-aged woman pushing somebody 0.72

00:36:11.060 in law enforcement now obviously it needs to be illegal to interfere with law enforcement doing their job

00:36:20.340 so i have no problem with it being illegal but what would be the appropriate penalty i i don't think it's 17

00:36:30.180 17 years maybe six months yeah at most six months suspended sentence yeah so i don't know we'll see

00:36:45.300 um i guess there are according to fox news 1500 protests planned in 50 states

00:36:53.540 um pbd was on fox news and he was talking about uh it looks like a setup that democrats are looking for their

00:37:06.180 next uh george floyd moment to frame trump as a dictator now that's exactly what it is um i would go further

00:37:17.300 and say what we're in and say what we're in is not a protest but a photo op competition

00:37:25.860 once you start thinking of it as a photo op competition then everything makes sense

00:37:33.700 so at the moment trump is winning because the photo ops are you know guy with mexican flag on top of a

00:37:42.340 burning car so that that's a photo that's you know works in trump's favor so at the moment the photo op

00:37:51.860 competition is strongly favoring trump but it would only take one photo of something that goes the other way

00:38:04.580 before the democrats could be you know solidly winning the photo op competition

00:38:10.340 they they they just need one one one law enforcement person to put one knee on somebody's back 1.00

00:38:20.580 they just need one person to be wounded badly who's a who's a protester they need a short video of

00:38:31.380 somebody who didn't look too dangerous being you know dragged away the the photo op contest

00:38:40.340 will get a lot closer than it is at the moment like i say trump is you know he's dominating all the photos are

00:38:49.620 pro pro pro wanting a strong leader to take control

00:38:54.820 but uh keep an eye on that so yes pvd you are correct it is a photo op competition

00:39:02.260 so meanwhile uh rachel maddow living in her world of madness and hallucination 0.94

00:39:13.620 um she she has this uh persuasion method that i don't know if it has a name but she's trying to convince 1.00

00:39:24.740 for viewers that there's something that she's imagining that they can also see clearly

00:39:34.020 it's a tough trick so she's operating from pure imagination hallucination and what she sees

00:39:43.540 is she's calling a clear unambiguous all doubts have been removed uh trump is an authoritarian leader

00:39:52.820 who's trying to take you know full dictator control of the country now the way she's trying to sell this 1.00

00:40:02.500 is not by giving you examples which would normally be the way you'd sell such a thing it would be like

00:40:10.660 well he did this and then he did that and then he did this and then he said that

00:40:17.140 and if you put it all together it looks like he wants to be a dictator now that would be an actual

00:40:24.100 argument but she's hallucinating that everybody can see it clearly where

00:40:35.860 what are you even talking about it is is sending in the national guard to temporarily protect the city

00:40:45.540 is that what makes a king that's a pretty weak king so she uses words to convince people that they should

00:40:56.660 not question so she doesn't say you know it looks like there's some risk here that you know this trump

00:41:06.740 fellow might be trying to take more power you know that that's the way you talk about the real world

00:41:13.060 you don't know for sure or anything but you say to yourself well there's some risk you know if

00:41:19.380 this happened and that happened maybe something bad would happen but instead she goes with it's clear it's

00:41:26.900 certain it's unambiguous there's now no question about it that he's becoming a dictator

00:41:33.860 if that's all you have is words that's it just words clear unambiguous all doubt removed

00:41:46.580 those are not arguments those are words and that's what she's got just words

00:41:57.140 well cnn's uh harry enton uh you know him because he does a lot of the polls and data stuff on cnn

00:42:06.580 um is pointing out that uh legal immigrants in the u.s people who came here the right way and you

00:42:17.780 either got a citizenship or they or at least here legally that among the people who are legal immigrants

00:42:25.620 there's been a 40 point shift to the right among immigrant voters so now republicans went from way

00:42:35.460 down uh in the minds of uh legal immigrants to way up uh they even shifted wildly in their support for

00:42:47.220 president trump so if you're a legal immigrant um the odds that you like trump are pretty good

00:42:58.660 pretty good now i don't know if it's the same where you live but i know quite a few legal immigrants

00:43:09.060 and i would say that a solid majority of them are pro-trump um the illegal immigrants probably

00:43:20.740 probably not the same i assume but but the ones who followed the law and got here the right way

00:43:27.940 they're not looking for trouble you know they're they're not looking for people coming from their 1.00

00:43:33.540 home country you know disrupting their their stores and their cities they're not looking for that at all

00:43:41.140 they're looking for you know the law and order and the the country they they thought they were going

00:43:47.460 to so yeah um that supports my observation that legal immigrants are more likely to want a little law and 0.98

00:43:58.660 order and be more republican than you your common sense tells you to make sense that's been my experience

00:44:12.340 bank more encores when you switch to a scotia bank banking package

00:44:16.820 learn more at scotia bank.com banking packages conditions apply scotia bank you're richer than you think

00:44:23.860 okay well i was uh wondering yesterday um when a apple store gets uh looted and you see the people

00:44:34.900 just grabbing each of the individual phones and ripping them out and running away i said to myself and to

00:44:41.940 you as well um why are these phones working you know once once they know they've been stolen so it seems

00:44:51.700 to me that the phone should have some kind of a facility on it that if you took it out of the store

00:44:59.620 illegally it would lock up or you know or erase itself or something but apparently it's even better than

00:45:07.700 that um the iphones sound alarms and then a message reads that it was a stolen phone and it needs to be

00:45:18.180 where it needs to be returned so there was a video of a pile of stolen phones just going

00:45:28.180 and i don't think you could get those phones to do anything else what's happening in the stock market is up

00:45:38.260 looks like it is anyway so that answered my question um if you were planning on looting a apple store

00:45:48.180 does it doesn't look like that works so well if you're going to take phones don't do it

00:45:55.780 well here's a gigantic story in terms of how it will affect you in the world bigger than all the

00:46:04.420 rest of the stories and that is uh wall street journal has a story that uh google has changed from giving you

00:46:13.540 links to giving you answers using its own ai so if you wanted to know you know some kind of news story

00:46:24.900 or something like that instead of giving you a list of news sites it might open its own ai and just

00:46:33.620 answer the question so why is that a big deal it's a big deal because most of the news sites depend on

00:46:42.660 google search traffic for their own advertising you know revenue to be triggered by traffic

00:46:53.220 so apparently uh often post uh is almost invisible now like it doesn't show up in searches because

00:47:02.500 the ai is answering the questions um the washington post looks like it'll take a hit

00:47:08.980 business insider is cutting staff due to a reduction in traffic the atlantic publication

00:47:18.740 um expects uh google traffic to approach zero wow zero now that has happened before

00:47:30.420 to uh breitbart for example uh the reason wasn't ai in that case it was uh

00:47:36.980 uh censorship so basically uh breitbart went from a place that would show up on google searches

00:47:47.860 to a place that did not and that you know pretty much just you know decimated uh um breitbart but they

00:47:58.100 seem to be uh recovering so we'll see if they're part of the uh problem now

00:48:04.980 what would happen oh by the way the wall street journal didn't seem as susceptible and i understand

00:48:14.420 that because when i when i want to see the wall street journal um i don't just google a story i google

00:48:24.500 the wall street journal because their brand is so well known so that makes sense that their their

00:48:32.100 traffic would be you know flatter up because uh you know when you look for them you're looking for them

00:48:39.780 you're not just looking for a story

00:48:44.100 anyway um the reason that's such a big thing is that what would happen if your major news sites

00:48:53.540 uh lost uh lost 50 to 75 percent of the revenue would they stay in business and if they didn't stay in

00:49:04.020 business what would that do to all the social media people like me the podcasters who look at the

00:49:13.380 traditional news um in part to make fun of it and to determine what's fake and what's not and to

00:49:21.540 compare it you know the left and the right that whole game might be over it's entirely possible

00:49:29.220 that the whole concept of going and looking at the news site that might be a year away from being obsolete

00:49:40.100 and that's pretty that's pretty extreme well how would i know what's real

00:49:46.420 who would be looking to find out what the real news is you know as much as we make fun of the

00:49:54.580 traditional media how would you know what's happening in iran or what's happening in the

00:50:02.020 ukraine war now i know that the the fake news will have lots of stories that are not you know totally

00:50:09.860 believable and credible but that's part of the process is comparing it to other stories and you

00:50:18.740 know trying to figure out what's real and what isn't and sometimes you can you know crawl toward

00:50:24.260 the truth but what if you didn't have any of that but what if i didn't have a new york times or

00:50:31.300 washington post or a wall street journal to even look at because they they couldn't maintain their business

00:50:39.060 model we're right on the right on the edge of that and then what would happen to google's ai

00:50:49.700 when you said all right i'm not gonna um you know have links to the other sites but the ai will tell

00:50:56.580 me what's true how could it do that the ai would only would only be able to look at other news stories

00:51:06.340 and you know scrape them or steal them or something but the ai doesn't know what's real

00:51:13.700 the ai can only look at news and then tell you what the news says so if the google ai

00:51:22.660 puts all of the news people in a business which it very well might do and very quickly

00:51:29.060 then what would it say i do when you ask it a question about the news it wouldn't be able to

00:51:37.380 answer so we're we're sort of right on the edge of all public information disappearing

00:51:47.460 what the hell does that look like if you didn't have reporters and independent press and

00:51:54.180 you know there's going to be some things that the independent press can't really afford to do

00:52:00.740 you know with like you know none of the podcasters have their own you know news bureau in the middle

00:52:07.780 east so we may be approaching a really weird time in human civilization where our sources of news

00:52:19.860 just disappear because they won't be sustainable google will eat it all the google will eat it

00:52:29.540 and then starve to death on its own because it needs the things that it's eating for its own survival

00:52:37.220 not just not not company survival but survival as a news information entity

00:52:46.980 so interesting times claudia was leaving for her pickleball tournament i've been visualizing my match

00:52:52.980 all week she was so focused on visualizing that she didn't see the column behind her car on her backhand

00:52:58.660 side good thing claudia's with intact the insurer with the largest network of auto service centers in the

00:53:05.060 country everything was taken care of under one roof and she was on her way in a rental car in no time

00:53:10.180 i made it to my tournament and lost in the first round but you got there on time intact insurance

00:53:16.580 your auto service ace certain conditions apply well here's a story about china and the trade deal

00:53:24.260 uh as you know china and the united states have been talking productively and uh at least some of the

00:53:35.300 people are saying good things i think ludnik is saying that uh the two largest economies have reached a

00:53:43.140 handshake for a framework so let me explain how far away that is from a deal there is a trade deal

00:53:54.900 which you know could take years to get the details right and then above that there would be a framework

00:54:03.140 which would be something you could agree on that the details have to attach to

00:54:08.500 but we don't have that we have a handshake about a framework we have a handshake about a framework

00:54:22.820 of a deal does that sound like a deal to you

00:54:29.940 so i don't know i've never uh negotiated a international trade deal with china

00:54:38.100 so it could be that this is the one and only way to get there um that everything looks tentative and

00:54:47.940 it's a messy process and people think you've agreed to one thing but the other side says no we didn't

00:54:54.900 agree to that but what was that handshake all about well that handshake was about the framework it wasn't

00:55:01.300 you know so probably it's not as nailed down as all the participants would want you to believe

00:55:10.180 but the things that matter are apparently uh trump has pushed hard to get a speedy answer on the

00:55:20.340 the rare earth minerals and so far it looks like china would be willing to do that so that's good you

00:55:28.820 you know if if the only thing we got out of it was that at least in the short run that'd be pretty

00:55:34.820 good and it would make the markets happy etc but um there's also the question of the tariffs

00:55:44.980 and as of today the reporting is that the us would have a 55 percent tariff on china

00:55:52.980 um whereas china would be 10 percent now that part i don't believe i don't believe there's gonna be

00:56:03.860 some kind of general tariff that's you know five times bigger one direction than the other

00:56:11.540 does that sound real i don't know i would need to hear more about that to know how real that is

00:56:17.220 uh there's something about chinese students being allowed to stay i feel like that might have been a

00:56:25.940 big lever because imagine all the wealthy chinese leaders whose children are in school or they wanted

00:56:34.740 them to be in school in the united states once that looked like it was gonna go away i'll bet you

00:56:42.660 president xi got a lot of phone calls from his buddies um you know it would be really good if

00:56:51.620 my son or daughter could get back into that school that they were in so i think that was probably a big

00:56:58.820 leverage point but it's hard to say

00:57:03.700 and trump apparently is okay with the chinese students

00:57:07.940 um as long as it's you know part of the larger trade bill and so he seems to be happy about it

00:57:16.340 i haven't seen anything on fentanyl or ip theft which are really big deals they're also the things

00:57:27.540 most likely to be ignored in the end so what would you imagine is going to happen

00:57:34.420 do you think that china will come up with a fentanyl offer that when we look at it we'd say oh yeah 1.00

00:57:44.500 that'll really take care of it that'll that'll get rid of the problem i don't feel like they will

00:57:53.460 i feel like that that will be the last thing that gets negotiated and because it's the last thing

00:58:01.140 and you don't want to lose all the gains that you've already made we'll agree to you know any 0.86

00:58:08.820 any bullshit thing they say and one of the bullshit things are likely to say is oh yeah we'll uh 0.98

00:58:16.740 we'll crack down on those precursors yeah we'll totally do that oh and and those dealers we'll uh 0.99

00:58:23.940 uh we'll talk to them and we'll tell them they go to jail or we'll put them in jail if they do anything

00:58:30.500 with fentanyl yeah yeah we got it and that will look a lot like what they've promised in the past and

00:58:38.180 never delivered so i'm expecting absolutely no fentanyl progress when this is all done i would love to be

00:58:51.620 wrong but i think they can just keep kicking that can and just ignoring it as long as they want i don't

00:59:00.740 think we're going to go to war over it so they kind of have the advantage there 0.98

00:59:08.260 and i don't know what they could possibly promise about ip theft because how would we

00:59:15.220 police it are they going to create some kind of you know international court that uh you know bows to

00:59:24.820 external demands for you know justice that doesn't sound like china so i don't think we're going to get

00:59:35.540 anything on ip theft or fentanyl but we'll probably get tariff uh tariff stuff and uh you know rare earth

00:59:49.060 mineral stuff so that's not nothing um according also to the wall street journal uh europe wants uh their

01:00:01.860 versions of ai to be uh locally uh obedience so in other words uh the ai that um let's say chat gbt

01:00:14.900 makes or nvidia or perplexity um would be a sovereign version so everybody would have their own sovereign

01:00:24.660 ai you know even though there might be you know several different ais each one would have to be

01:00:31.860 you know made for that country and so if you ever thought to yourself well this ai is going to get 0.99

01:00:41.860 all the countries to agree on the history and the facts and all the fake news will go away

01:00:50.100 i don't think so i don't think any of the fake news is going to go away i think as long as every

01:00:56.580 country has their own ai they'll have their own histories they'll have their own truth that's where

01:01:04.660 we're headed now i always tell you there's a new uh lithium battery but here's another one uh interesting

01:01:15.460 engineering has a story there's another uh solid lithium air battery that has four times the energy

01:01:22.900 density density as the old ones and it breaks the room temperature performance barrier now when it

01:01:32.180 comes to batteries there's always going to be some you know inflection point where it's not just you

01:01:39.540 know a little bit better battery but it just changes everything this one has the potential to be that kind

01:01:48.260 of a battery because um it would reach the uh it would reach the energy density of uh gas basically so

01:01:59.860 gasoline is a good energy density but if you can make this lithium battery four times more you know energy

01:02:08.260 storage it would be right up there and that would change everything so i'm not saying this particular

01:02:16.260 battery is going to be the one but you know once you see that every single day there's another

01:02:23.780 breaking story of a lithium battery laboratory breakthrough that gives it you know way more power

01:02:31.300 and way more uh you know faster charging and all that we have some fun stuff ahead of us and batteries are

01:02:41.140 going to be a real big part of that all right um apparently u.s oil output is going to drop um for the first time since uh

01:02:58.420 since the covet now that kind of had to happen right um trump's idea was to unleash energy

01:03:09.700 by you know drill baby drill and making it legal to drill in more places in more ways and easier to get

01:03:18.020 permits etc but the the obvious problem is that the more oil we drill the lower the cost of a barrel of

01:03:28.340 oil because you know supply and demand and then when you reach a certain point which apparently we reached

01:03:36.580 it doesn't make sense to drill anymore so you can't use that technique to just keep lowering energy costs you

01:03:44.820 can only only lower it to the point where it still makes sense to produce the energy and apparently we hit

01:03:52.420 that point so if you were waiting for the cost of energy to go down another you know x percent probably not

01:04:04.340 you we i think we had some kind of like floor and below that at least when it comes to the you know the

01:04:10.660 carbon fuels um probably won't go lower now the good news is that the u.s government uh working with

01:04:21.940 private industry is really going hard at nuclear energy and specifically the kind of nuclear plants

01:04:31.380 that don't have the meltdown risk so they they know how to do that basically at this point and so

01:04:39.620 building the micro reactors and the even the bigger reactors are using the new technology and the new

01:04:46.180 fuel we're gonna get to the point it might be i don't know 12 to 20 years from now because everything

01:04:55.940 takes too long where we're gonna have coming online a massive amount of low-cost electricity but at the

01:05:05.940 same time there'll be a massive demand for it through ai but at the same time and i don't see other people

01:05:17.140 adding this to their uh predictions but my prediction looks like this at the moment we think we need

01:05:27.860 like you know i don't know 100 nuclear power plants just to keep the lights on because ai is going to use

01:05:35.140 so much power that will just you know it'd be almost impossible to make too much but at the same time

01:05:43.380 we're trying to create all of that power i think people are trying to figure out how to have ai that

01:05:51.220 doesn't need that much power and my guess is that by about the same time all those nuclear power plants

01:06:00.340 come online will be about the same time we figured out that we don't need that much electricity

01:06:07.060 because we found you know clever workarounds and you know we we figured out you know take the entire ai

01:06:15.860 model and put it on your phone and so it's only using your phone electricity after that so i feel like

01:06:23.780 there's a point in 20 years i don't know and might be in five not five but probably 15 to 20 where we're

01:06:35.460 going to have a massive amount of electricity coming online and not really a massive demand anymore

01:06:44.340 at which point um the cost of energy could come down that might be the good news

01:06:54.740 all right ladies and gentlemen that is the end of my prepared statements um i hope you all feel smarter

01:07:02.500 and uh and a little bit more prepared for the day uh i'm going to talk to the uh subscribers on locals

01:07:12.900 privately for a minute the rest of you thank you so much for joining and i hope you come back tomorrow

01:07:19.460 same time same place where we'll solve whatever problems are left in this weird world all right local

01:07:28.260 local subscribers coming at you privately in 30 seconds

01:07:58.260 so

01:08:11.700 um

01:08:16.100 so

01:08:16.260 Thank you.

01:08:46.260 Thank you.

01:09:16.260 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - June 11, 2025

Episode 2865 CWSA 06⧸11⧸25

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