Episode 2865 CWSA 06⧸11⧸25
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 9 minutes
Words per Minute
119.80679
Summary
In this episode of Coffee with Scott Adams, Scott Adams talks about a variety of topics, from the stock market, to the news, to politics, and everything else in between. Scott Adams is a standup comedian, podcaster, writer, and host of the popular podcast "Coffee With Scott Adams" and co-host of the podcast "Don Lemon".
Transcript
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in the stock market it looks like it's a little bit up all right all right we'll take it
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good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight
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of human civilization it's called coffee with scott adams and you've never had a better time
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but if you'd like to take a chance to take this experience up to levels that no one can even
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understand with their tiny shiny human brains all you need for that is a cup or mug or a glass
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a tanker chalice or stein it's hard for me to say chalice or stein a canteen jug or flask
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a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the
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unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine at the end of the day the thing that makes everything better
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it's called the simultaneous sip and it's going to happen right now go
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everything's coming together well the uh may month of may cpi
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uh in other words the inflation measure was 2.4 percent which was in line with expectations
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so if that's what you expected you got what you wanted
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uh meanwhile in california it is now illegal for drivers to hold their phones to view a map
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so you can put your phone into a holder you can have it in your pocket but you can't have it in one
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hand while you're driving um that should be on a list with many other things you should not be able to
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drive while you've got that in your hand for example i'll say a makeup brush right when when you feel safer
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if nobody can drive with one hand and put makeup on with the other
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yeah that's just one example i'll bet you could think of another
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but uh moving on uh the uh house which would be congress um well part of congress is uh launching
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a probe into harvard over their just well alleged discrimination in hiring
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uh that's uh washington examiner has a story and uh what do you think
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then do you think when they look into harvard that they will find any
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possible discrimination against white men in hiring do you think there's any chance
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that they don't discriminate against white men of course they do so we'll see uh how much trouble they
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meanwhile uh you might remember the reporter uh terry moran who was working for abc news but
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he made some unfortunately highly personal sounding hatred posts about uh stephen miller
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and he's uh also said some bad things about trump but he was uh put on some kind of uh leave
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and now they say abc says his contract is up and he will not be renewed so what happens with all these
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uh biased news people who get fired for being biased and terrible how many of them will start their own
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podcast that becomes wildly economically successful do any of you think that don lemon is making money
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on his podcast because i kind of doubt it and what about uh uh what's his name uh jim
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jim uh jim uh who always would be uh yelling at the president for one thing or another do you think
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oh casa no jimacasa um what are the odds he's making any money with this podcast
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probably not very high and every one of these uh people who get fired from the mainstream media
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they have no place to go sort of like me actually same situation when they get canceled they end up
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starting podcasts i saw um was it chris cuomo who was predicting that uh that even joe rogan show
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would go down in viewership and it would be because so many people are entering that space
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and a lot of them are really good so the idea is that the space that you have enjoyed for podcasting
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will be full of highly qualified people will be sucking up all the time and attention that i was
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taking from you well we'll see we'll see because the podcasting world is a very different skill
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all right what else is going on here oh um so according to the uh wall street journal as uh being reported
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here by zero hedge um in the final years of the biden administration they had launched um the biden
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people had launched an investigation into elon musk's uh foreign associates so they were just apparently
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they were spying on who came and went to musk's uh properties from other countries now what crime do you think
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do you think they were looking for the answer is any any crime they were they were looking for anything
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because uh i think it was already obvious that musk was not going to be helpful to biden
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and i think they were just weaponizing government and going after a potential trump ally before he was
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as much a trump ally and i guess they didn't find anything because nothing came of it
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but just think of that the department of homeland security and the justice department
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were investigating musk for nothing for nothing that there's no there's no allegation
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they simply were you know looking into his associates to see if there was anything they
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could make something out of god anyway uh over in france where you thought the french were more
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open-minded than the rest of us well it turns out that they would like to classify the x platform as an
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adult site because it has a lot of adult content on it um and they want uh france wants the users of x
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to have to have to show an id to use the platform now not every time they use it obviously but i think
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it uh they're also doing the same thing with porn hub and some other uh porn sites so they're being
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at least they're being consistent it's not there it's not that they're going after x in particular but um
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apparently there's going to be a little bit of friction there so we'll see when i
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found out my friend got a great deal on a wool coat from winners i started wondering is every
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fabulous item i see from winners like that woman over there with the designer jeans are those from
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winners ooh are those beautiful gold earrings did she pay full price or that leather tote or that
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cashmere sweater or those knee-high boots that dress that jacket those shoes is anyone paying full
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price for anything stop wondering start winning winners find fabulous for less speaking of musk
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there appears to be some kind of uh understanding that is developing here between trump and musk
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uh and uh this started with um we think they had a phone call but uh musk posted quote i regret some of my
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posts about president uh trump last week now oh he says they went too far
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now how many of you would call that an apology he's got regret and he says why he regrets it because it went too
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far is that an apology well you know an apology to your spouse would have to be a lot deeper and more
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personal but in in terms of famous people who you have thicker skin than they're used to the stuff
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that's pretty close sort of it's in the neighborhood of an apology it it at least acknowledges that he was
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in the wrong which is in the wrong which is the important part because you know if you're dealing
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with trump and your your conclusion is okay the problem was all me um i regret it i should not have done
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that here's why that's not bad that's not bad it's not technically an apology but among famous people
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people yeah it's not bad so um and then i guess trump was asked if they if he could ever you know work
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with musk again and trump says uh i guess i could i guess i could so that would suggest that maybe there's
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some kind of agreement going on there that they that they know they're better with each other than without
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now this might be related or it might not be so see if you think this next story is related to the musk
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and trump story so speaker mike johnson um he told the reporters that republicans plan to launch a quote
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multi-front war against the deficit he says uh every dollar matters we're serious about this the republican
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party is doing everything blah blah but then he said and here's the important part he said uh this
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recent rescission package is a critical step and it's one of many so it's the one of many part that's the
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important part uh according to uh speaker johnson there'll be several of these and they'll come from
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the white house who will work together with the uh the work with the administration to cut all the
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fraud waste and abuse so what mike johnson is saying is that there will be doge like cuts but that they're
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going to come in separate packages and it's a presumed understood part of the process now doesn't that
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sound like something that musk would have asked for in order to stand down and stop criticizing the big
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beautiful bill i feel like the thing he could have asked for and should have is um it's one thing if
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you tell me that this package is not the one that's gonna make all the big cuts
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but you're gonna have to tell me which one does you you're gonna have to put something out there
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that says we are going to cut expenses with these subsequent spending packages that's what
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johnson's saying now i i think this had always been the plan but i don't remember mike johnson saying it
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as clearly as he's saying it now so it makes me wonder if the outcome of elon talking to trump
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uh and getting bad at them and you know maybe hopefully getting over it is that at some point
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maybe speaker mike johnson agreed to give a little bit more detail to the public about how they plan to
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attack the debt now i don't know if this is enough so i you know i i would love to tell you oh yeah if
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they if they have these subsequent spending bills that they don't call spending bills and they cut them
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well we're in good shape i don't know that that will be the case but it's definitely what we needed to
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here we all needed to hear we all needed to hear that they have some kind of plan for cutting expenses so
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a new study uh sci post is talking about this eric nolan um there's a when there's a perceived
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social breakdown it uh fuels the desire for authoritarian leaders there's a new psychology
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study that says so when society is falling apart the uh the members of society are far more likely to say
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could i just have a dictator to you know work this out for us because
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democracy isn't going to work in this chaos and uh is there a way they could have saved any money
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on that study can you think of anything they could have done instead of doing the study
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that would have gotten them to the same conclusion well yes they could have asked scott
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because if you said to me scott do you think that during times of uh you know great uncertainty
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people will want stronger leaders i would have said duh yeah every time and i didn't even know that was a
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question of course i will and if things look like they're going fine what happens then
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when things look like they're going fine that's how you elected jimmy carter
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i thought everybody knew that that when things look uh uncertain that people want to authoritate
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you know so maybe that's exactly where trump needs to be
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um trump says uh in a post on truth social he said we made a great decision in sending the national
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guard so do you think so if we had not done so la would have been completely obliterated
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the very incompetent governor he puts it in quotes governor uh gavin newscom
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and mayor karen bass should be saying thank you president trump you are so wonderful
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every time he writes it's funny but uh here's what i think we will never know what would have happened
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in la if there had not been national guard but are you happy that trump um went full authoritarian and went
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heavy on the law enforcement through you know the national guard um are you happy about that
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i am i'm happy about it because i don't know if it you know
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increased or decreased any any kind of uh violence i doubt it increased it it seems kind of unlikely it made
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it worse but that that's what the democrats are claiming so i would say during great uncertainty
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when uh when uh when our cities are inflamed look back at that psychology study and ask yourself did you
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want a strong leader this week or did you want a weak leader this week
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and if you're being honest you're probably saying to yourself you know a lot of uh stuff on fire a lot of
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uncertainty i wouldn't mind having a strong leader and trump stands in and he gives you exactly what you want
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he is very good at reading the room so his his timing for being more assertive as a leader if if that's even
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possible um was perfect uh oh i'm running out of ink on my printer well uh karen bass has declared a local
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emergency emergency for just one part of la and so curfews are in place from 8 pm to 6 a.m
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now why did that take so long so trump is there with the national guard in like no time at all
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and the mayor it took until now to come up with this idea of a curfew
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if a if a curfew is useful didn't they wait a little little bit too long or are these riots supposed
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to last forever like how long are they going to last uh i would think that the you know the natural life
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you know life of a protest like this would be i don't know two weeks maximum two weeks
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but uh if a curfew helps um i'm gonna say why wasn't that the first thing you did
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you know once you saw um foreign flags and cars on fire and graffiti on things
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wasn't there an earlier time when you might decide you know what a little bit of a curfew would help
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so uh governor newsom had a little embarrassment because he planned this major announcement where he
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put on a suit and tie and acted like he was a governor and he wanted to say some things that were
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bad about trump mostly uh while using the excuse of the protests in la as a reason to talk to the country
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and uh first uh several minutes of his broadcast there was a an audio problem
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so it looked really sort of amateurish because the audio didn't work for a while they got it working
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finally it was a recorded recorded piece um but it didn't it didn't come off well
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because it made him look like uh he was running a crappy operation and then there's this weird story
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where newsom apparently made the claim that trump had never called him or called him back i don't know
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which one it was but trump um responded to the claim that he had never called newsom by showing uh
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fox news host john roberts his call log and there it was uh right on the phone a call log of 16 minutes
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where he spoke with newsom now if you're newsom and i get that he's a you know professional liar because he's a politician
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they're all professional liars but why would you tell a lie that could so easily be detected
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and debunked did he forget he talked to trump or did he think nobody would check
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or did it work because the people who were watching whatever trump said are different from
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the people watching whatever he says so he can make any claim he wants and there sticks so probably
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i don't know the three quarters of his base who ever heard him say that trump didn't call
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they probably still believe he didn't call even though there's a call log and you know it's a national
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story that he did so anyway so how is uh msnbc handling the coverage of the uh protests well one of them
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whose name i don't know uh he uh he said that he was reminded of a slavery
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and he's reminded of the slave holders versus the slave catchers and uh he didn't want to live in a
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world where citizens were forced to decide if they should be helping ice or not helping ice and so he
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made an analogy to slavery and escaped slaves now i've got a little advice for you
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if you ever hear anybody bolstering their opinion about a topic by making an analogy to slavery
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the holocaust or hitler uh and there's probably more i could add to the list but those are not serious
00:25:18.180
people those are people whose filter um is just completely broken because you shouldn't need any kind
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of analogy for something that's obviously wrong and the argument is enough well why would you have to
00:25:36.740
make an analogy to slavery if it were bad wouldn't you be able to say oh let me just describe it
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and there's nothing else you need to know you don't need to know well does it share three of 17 points with
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this historical event that you know was horrible in its own right no anybody who needs to make an analogy
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to the holocaust to hitler or to slavery they don't have an argument so they're sort of flailing
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away there all right here's a story which is in the news but i can't tell if it's fake news or partial
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fake news so i'll watch the comments maybe you know so the the allegation is that the uh either ice or border
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patrol um was starting to target home depot day workers now those would be the people who at least
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where i live um the illegal immigrants would often gather in the parking lot of home depot because people
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would um need projects and so you could drive up to the little group of them and say i need uh you and
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you to help me uh dig a ditch today or put up a rock wall and then you drive them to your house
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and they work all day and then somehow they get home i don't know how and so the
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the allegation is that ice is uh targeting them and has targeted them and especially
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uh in the paramount area uh they targeted home depot allegedly and i'm asking you if this is real
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and that that caused uh the protests now does that sound true because here's the uh here's the problem
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um there there was one story in april where um there was somebody with a arrest warrant who was one of
00:28:11.780
the day workers and when either ice or border patrol i forget um went to arrest the one who had a you know
00:28:20.740
open arrest warrant they did what they have told us they have to do which is uh in the process of going
00:28:29.860
after the one person if it puts them in contact with a bunch of other people who are illegal but
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they were not the targeted ones they might get deported now that's something that ice and tom holman
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have been saying since the very start you know and i understand it i don't love it but i understand it
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it that if your job is ice um and you're in a room full of people that you don't to be illegal
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what are you gonna do are you gonna ignore it i mean it's still a crime so the part that i
00:29:13.780
liked about tom holman's approach was the worst first which makes me very comfortable
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um and uh if they were if they were targeting home depot people just because it was easy and you know
00:29:33.780
they're standing right there in public and you'd know exactly what they were um they're not really
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the criminals they're not the worst and it would be really bad publicity you know a bad brand image
00:29:49.140
look for ice to be going after the people who literally are standing there saying can i help
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you build a wall you know can i work for you at you know below market wages they're not really the
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dangerous ones so i know that many of you are going to say uh ship everybody home there's no such thing as
00:30:15.140
um anybody who should stay if they're illegal i get it but wouldn't you agree with me
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that if you were ice you should stick with your plan of worst first and the story about the home depot
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would be the opposite of the worst first so i don't know if the story is even true
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because i i can't imagine ice saying you know this whole worst first thing has worked so far but
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now we got all the bad ones so we'll start taking the day workers from the parking lot
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i don't know doesn't seem like a good plan so i'm gonna say that i don't believe this is real news
00:31:04.420
or that there's something about the news that's you know undisclosed like you know maybe there were
00:31:12.500
some known gang members within that group or something but now there's something wrong with
00:31:19.060
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casino.com for details please play responsibly um according to a news nation federal agents have uh arrested more
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than 100 people that this big nebraska uh food plant glenn valley foods in omaha and i guess the workers
00:32:46.980
ran for cover and but they got a hundred of them now is that a case of worst first
00:32:56.420
and so the question i have is has something changed in the priority of the deportations
00:33:05.380
and i'm not arguing whether it should or should not right at the moment i'm just asking
00:33:10.980
did something happen where they decided that worst first did make sense um i certainly understand that
00:33:22.500
if a hundred of them were working at this one glenn valley foods wouldn't that be a hundred jobs that american
00:33:32.500
american citizens might have instead you know that it's indoor work and it seems like it wouldn't
00:33:41.780
take a ton of training to get somebody to do the jobs within a food plant so
00:33:51.620
you know uh i'm not going to say i'm in favor of it or against it um i'm just wondering if it's a change in strategy
00:34:02.500
uh you say you think it's a new sheriff in town move to uh scare scare him into not working in america in
00:34:12.660
the first place maybe um and msnbc is reporting the ice is gonna deploy tactical units to five sanctuary
00:34:26.580
cities run by democratic mayors so that would include seattle chicago new york philadelphia and northern
00:34:35.460
virginia now that part seems like business is normal because the sanctuary cities would presumably be
00:34:46.900
where a lot of the worst of the worst are so that makes sense um and it does suggest
00:34:54.820
that ice and trump are not backing down because they're gonna go right after the bluest cities
00:35:08.260
um do you remember la monica mckiver she's representative house of representatives and she
00:35:14.900
was the one who was accused of forcibly interfering with the federal law enforcement officers
00:35:21.220
um gateway pundit is writing about this and apparently a federal grand jury has returned a
00:35:30.260
three-count indictment charging her with forcibly impeding and interfering with federal law enforcement
00:35:39.300
at the delaney hall detention center in newark last month and apparently she she's facing a maximum
00:35:48.180
of 17 years in prison how bad was it you know when i when i hear the uh the penalties
00:36:00.580
for some things i say to myself seriously 17 years for a middle-aged woman pushing somebody
00:36:11.060
in law enforcement now obviously it needs to be illegal to interfere with law enforcement doing their job
00:36:20.340
so i have no problem with it being illegal but what would be the appropriate penalty i i don't think it's 17
00:36:30.180
17 years maybe six months yeah at most six months suspended sentence yeah so i don't know we'll see
00:36:45.300
um i guess there are according to fox news 1500 protests planned in 50 states
00:36:53.540
um pbd was on fox news and he was talking about uh it looks like a setup that democrats are looking for their
00:37:06.180
next uh george floyd moment to frame trump as a dictator now that's exactly what it is um i would go further
00:37:17.300
and say what we're in and say what we're in is not a protest but a photo op competition
00:37:25.860
once you start thinking of it as a photo op competition then everything makes sense
00:37:33.700
so at the moment trump is winning because the photo ops are you know guy with mexican flag on top of a
00:37:42.340
burning car so that that's a photo that's you know works in trump's favor so at the moment the photo op
00:37:51.860
competition is strongly favoring trump but it would only take one photo of something that goes the other way
00:38:04.580
before the democrats could be you know solidly winning the photo op competition
00:38:10.340
they they they just need one one one law enforcement person to put one knee on somebody's back
00:38:20.580
they just need one person to be wounded badly who's a who's a protester they need a short video of
00:38:31.380
somebody who didn't look too dangerous being you know dragged away the the photo op contest
00:38:40.340
will get a lot closer than it is at the moment like i say trump is you know he's dominating all the photos are
00:38:49.620
pro pro pro wanting a strong leader to take control
00:38:54.820
but uh keep an eye on that so yes pvd you are correct it is a photo op competition
00:39:02.260
so meanwhile uh rachel maddow living in her world of madness and hallucination
00:39:13.620
um she she has this uh persuasion method that i don't know if it has a name but she's trying to convince
00:39:24.740
for viewers that there's something that she's imagining that they can also see clearly
00:39:34.020
it's a tough trick so she's operating from pure imagination hallucination and what she sees
00:39:43.540
is she's calling a clear unambiguous all doubts have been removed uh trump is an authoritarian leader
00:39:52.820
who's trying to take you know full dictator control of the country now the way she's trying to sell this
00:40:02.500
is not by giving you examples which would normally be the way you'd sell such a thing it would be like
00:40:10.660
well he did this and then he did that and then he did this and then he said that
00:40:17.140
and if you put it all together it looks like he wants to be a dictator now that would be an actual
00:40:24.100
argument but she's hallucinating that everybody can see it clearly where
00:40:35.860
what are you even talking about it is is sending in the national guard to temporarily protect the city
00:40:45.540
is that what makes a king that's a pretty weak king so she uses words to convince people that they should
00:40:56.660
not question so she doesn't say you know it looks like there's some risk here that you know this trump
00:41:06.740
fellow might be trying to take more power you know that that's the way you talk about the real world
00:41:13.060
you don't know for sure or anything but you say to yourself well there's some risk you know if
00:41:19.380
this happened and that happened maybe something bad would happen but instead she goes with it's clear it's
00:41:26.900
certain it's unambiguous there's now no question about it that he's becoming a dictator
00:41:33.860
if that's all you have is words that's it just words clear unambiguous all doubt removed
00:41:46.580
those are not arguments those are words and that's what she's got just words
00:41:57.140
well cnn's uh harry enton uh you know him because he does a lot of the polls and data stuff on cnn
00:42:06.580
um is pointing out that uh legal immigrants in the u.s people who came here the right way and you
00:42:17.780
either got a citizenship or they or at least here legally that among the people who are legal immigrants
00:42:25.620
there's been a 40 point shift to the right among immigrant voters so now republicans went from way
00:42:35.460
down uh in the minds of uh legal immigrants to way up uh they even shifted wildly in their support for
00:42:47.220
president trump so if you're a legal immigrant um the odds that you like trump are pretty good
00:42:58.660
pretty good now i don't know if it's the same where you live but i know quite a few legal immigrants
00:43:09.060
and i would say that a solid majority of them are pro-trump um the illegal immigrants probably
00:43:20.740
probably not the same i assume but but the ones who followed the law and got here the right way
00:43:27.940
they're not looking for trouble you know they're they're not looking for people coming from their
00:43:33.540
home country you know disrupting their their stores and their cities they're not looking for that at all
00:43:41.140
they're looking for you know the law and order and the the country they they thought they were going
00:43:47.460
to so yeah um that supports my observation that legal immigrants are more likely to want a little law and
00:43:58.660
order and be more republican than you your common sense tells you to make sense that's been my experience
00:44:12.340
bank more encores when you switch to a scotia bank banking package
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learn more at scotia bank.com banking packages conditions apply scotia bank you're richer than you think
00:44:23.860
okay well i was uh wondering yesterday um when a apple store gets uh looted and you see the people
00:44:34.900
just grabbing each of the individual phones and ripping them out and running away i said to myself and to
00:44:41.940
you as well um why are these phones working you know once once they know they've been stolen so it seems
00:44:51.700
to me that the phone should have some kind of a facility on it that if you took it out of the store
00:44:59.620
illegally it would lock up or you know or erase itself or something but apparently it's even better than
00:45:07.700
that um the iphones sound alarms and then a message reads that it was a stolen phone and it needs to be
00:45:18.180
where it needs to be returned so there was a video of a pile of stolen phones just going
00:45:28.180
and i don't think you could get those phones to do anything else what's happening in the stock market is up
00:45:38.260
looks like it is anyway so that answered my question um if you were planning on looting a apple store
00:45:48.180
does it doesn't look like that works so well if you're going to take phones don't do it
00:45:55.780
well here's a gigantic story in terms of how it will affect you in the world bigger than all the
00:46:04.420
rest of the stories and that is uh wall street journal has a story that uh google has changed from giving you
00:46:13.540
links to giving you answers using its own ai so if you wanted to know you know some kind of news story
00:46:24.900
or something like that instead of giving you a list of news sites it might open its own ai and just
00:46:33.620
answer the question so why is that a big deal it's a big deal because most of the news sites depend on
00:46:42.660
google search traffic for their own advertising you know revenue to be triggered by traffic
00:46:53.220
so apparently uh often post uh is almost invisible now like it doesn't show up in searches because
00:47:02.500
the ai is answering the questions um the washington post looks like it'll take a hit
00:47:08.980
business insider is cutting staff due to a reduction in traffic the atlantic publication
00:47:18.740
um expects uh google traffic to approach zero wow zero now that has happened before
00:47:30.420
to uh breitbart for example uh the reason wasn't ai in that case it was uh
00:47:36.980
uh censorship so basically uh breitbart went from a place that would show up on google searches
00:47:47.860
to a place that did not and that you know pretty much just you know decimated uh um breitbart but they
00:47:58.100
seem to be uh recovering so we'll see if they're part of the uh problem now
00:48:04.980
what would happen oh by the way the wall street journal didn't seem as susceptible and i understand
00:48:14.420
that because when i when i want to see the wall street journal um i don't just google a story i google
00:48:24.500
the wall street journal because their brand is so well known so that makes sense that their their
00:48:32.100
traffic would be you know flatter up because uh you know when you look for them you're looking for them
00:48:44.100
anyway um the reason that's such a big thing is that what would happen if your major news sites
00:48:53.540
uh lost uh lost 50 to 75 percent of the revenue would they stay in business and if they didn't stay in
00:49:04.020
business what would that do to all the social media people like me the podcasters who look at the
00:49:13.380
traditional news um in part to make fun of it and to determine what's fake and what's not and to
00:49:21.540
compare it you know the left and the right that whole game might be over it's entirely possible
00:49:29.220
that the whole concept of going and looking at the news site that might be a year away from being obsolete
00:49:40.100
and that's pretty that's pretty extreme well how would i know what's real
00:49:46.420
who would be looking to find out what the real news is you know as much as we make fun of the
00:49:54.580
traditional media how would you know what's happening in iran or what's happening in the
00:50:02.020
ukraine war now i know that the the fake news will have lots of stories that are not you know totally
00:50:09.860
believable and credible but that's part of the process is comparing it to other stories and you
00:50:18.740
know trying to figure out what's real and what isn't and sometimes you can you know crawl toward
00:50:24.260
the truth but what if you didn't have any of that but what if i didn't have a new york times or
00:50:31.300
washington post or a wall street journal to even look at because they they couldn't maintain their business
00:50:39.060
model we're right on the right on the edge of that and then what would happen to google's ai
00:50:49.700
when you said all right i'm not gonna um you know have links to the other sites but the ai will tell
00:50:56.580
me what's true how could it do that the ai would only would only be able to look at other news stories
00:51:06.340
and you know scrape them or steal them or something but the ai doesn't know what's real
00:51:13.700
the ai can only look at news and then tell you what the news says so if the google ai
00:51:22.660
puts all of the news people in a business which it very well might do and very quickly
00:51:29.060
then what would it say i do when you ask it a question about the news it wouldn't be able to
00:51:37.380
answer so we're we're sort of right on the edge of all public information disappearing
00:51:47.460
what the hell does that look like if you didn't have reporters and independent press and
00:51:54.180
you know there's going to be some things that the independent press can't really afford to do
00:52:00.740
you know with like you know none of the podcasters have their own you know news bureau in the middle
00:52:07.780
east so we may be approaching a really weird time in human civilization where our sources of news
00:52:19.860
just disappear because they won't be sustainable google will eat it all the google will eat it
00:52:29.540
and then starve to death on its own because it needs the things that it's eating for its own survival
00:52:37.220
not just not not company survival but survival as a news information entity
00:52:46.980
so interesting times claudia was leaving for her pickleball tournament i've been visualizing my match
00:52:52.980
all week she was so focused on visualizing that she didn't see the column behind her car on her backhand
00:52:58.660
side good thing claudia's with intact the insurer with the largest network of auto service centers in the
00:53:05.060
country everything was taken care of under one roof and she was on her way in a rental car in no time
00:53:10.180
i made it to my tournament and lost in the first round but you got there on time intact insurance
00:53:16.580
your auto service ace certain conditions apply well here's a story about china and the trade deal
00:53:24.260
uh as you know china and the united states have been talking productively and uh at least some of the
00:53:35.300
people are saying good things i think ludnik is saying that uh the two largest economies have reached a
00:53:43.140
handshake for a framework so let me explain how far away that is from a deal there is a trade deal
00:53:54.900
which you know could take years to get the details right and then above that there would be a framework
00:54:03.140
which would be something you could agree on that the details have to attach to
00:54:08.500
but we don't have that we have a handshake about a framework we have a handshake about a framework
00:54:29.940
so i don't know i've never uh negotiated a international trade deal with china
00:54:38.100
so it could be that this is the one and only way to get there um that everything looks tentative and
00:54:47.940
it's a messy process and people think you've agreed to one thing but the other side says no we didn't
00:54:54.900
agree to that but what was that handshake all about well that handshake was about the framework it wasn't
00:55:01.300
you know so probably it's not as nailed down as all the participants would want you to believe
00:55:10.180
but the things that matter are apparently uh trump has pushed hard to get a speedy answer on the
00:55:20.340
the rare earth minerals and so far it looks like china would be willing to do that so that's good you
00:55:28.820
you know if if the only thing we got out of it was that at least in the short run that'd be pretty
00:55:34.820
good and it would make the markets happy etc but um there's also the question of the tariffs
00:55:44.980
and as of today the reporting is that the us would have a 55 percent tariff on china
00:55:52.980
um whereas china would be 10 percent now that part i don't believe i don't believe there's gonna be
00:56:03.860
some kind of general tariff that's you know five times bigger one direction than the other
00:56:11.540
does that sound real i don't know i would need to hear more about that to know how real that is
00:56:17.220
uh there's something about chinese students being allowed to stay i feel like that might have been a
00:56:25.940
big lever because imagine all the wealthy chinese leaders whose children are in school or they wanted
00:56:34.740
them to be in school in the united states once that looked like it was gonna go away i'll bet you
00:56:42.660
president xi got a lot of phone calls from his buddies um you know it would be really good if
00:56:51.620
my son or daughter could get back into that school that they were in so i think that was probably a big
00:57:03.700
and trump apparently is okay with the chinese students
00:57:07.940
um as long as it's you know part of the larger trade bill and so he seems to be happy about it
00:57:16.340
i haven't seen anything on fentanyl or ip theft which are really big deals they're also the things
00:57:27.540
most likely to be ignored in the end so what would you imagine is going to happen
00:57:34.420
do you think that china will come up with a fentanyl offer that when we look at it we'd say oh yeah
00:57:44.500
that'll really take care of it that'll that'll get rid of the problem i don't feel like they will
00:57:53.460
i feel like that that will be the last thing that gets negotiated and because it's the last thing
00:58:01.140
and you don't want to lose all the gains that you've already made we'll agree to you know any
00:58:08.820
any bullshit thing they say and one of the bullshit things are likely to say is oh yeah we'll uh
00:58:16.740
we'll crack down on those precursors yeah we'll totally do that oh and and those dealers we'll uh
00:58:23.940
uh we'll talk to them and we'll tell them they go to jail or we'll put them in jail if they do anything
00:58:30.500
with fentanyl yeah yeah we got it and that will look a lot like what they've promised in the past and
00:58:38.180
never delivered so i'm expecting absolutely no fentanyl progress when this is all done i would love to be
00:58:51.620
wrong but i think they can just keep kicking that can and just ignoring it as long as they want i don't
00:59:00.740
think we're going to go to war over it so they kind of have the advantage there
00:59:08.260
and i don't know what they could possibly promise about ip theft because how would we
00:59:15.220
police it are they going to create some kind of you know international court that uh you know bows to
00:59:24.820
external demands for you know justice that doesn't sound like china so i don't think we're going to get
00:59:35.540
anything on ip theft or fentanyl but we'll probably get tariff uh tariff stuff and uh you know rare earth
00:59:49.060
mineral stuff so that's not nothing um according also to the wall street journal uh europe wants uh their
01:00:01.860
versions of ai to be uh locally uh obedience so in other words uh the ai that um let's say chat gbt
01:00:14.900
makes or nvidia or perplexity um would be a sovereign version so everybody would have their own sovereign
01:00:24.660
ai you know even though there might be you know several different ais each one would have to be
01:00:31.860
you know made for that country and so if you ever thought to yourself well this ai is going to get
01:00:41.860
all the countries to agree on the history and the facts and all the fake news will go away
01:00:50.100
i don't think so i don't think any of the fake news is going to go away i think as long as every
01:00:56.580
country has their own ai they'll have their own histories they'll have their own truth that's where
01:01:04.660
we're headed now i always tell you there's a new uh lithium battery but here's another one uh interesting
01:01:15.460
engineering has a story there's another uh solid lithium air battery that has four times the energy
01:01:22.900
density density as the old ones and it breaks the room temperature performance barrier now when it
01:01:32.180
comes to batteries there's always going to be some you know inflection point where it's not just you
01:01:39.540
know a little bit better battery but it just changes everything this one has the potential to be that kind
01:01:48.260
of a battery because um it would reach the uh it would reach the energy density of uh gas basically so
01:01:59.860
gasoline is a good energy density but if you can make this lithium battery four times more you know energy
01:02:08.260
storage it would be right up there and that would change everything so i'm not saying this particular
01:02:16.260
battery is going to be the one but you know once you see that every single day there's another
01:02:23.780
breaking story of a lithium battery laboratory breakthrough that gives it you know way more power
01:02:31.300
and way more uh you know faster charging and all that we have some fun stuff ahead of us and batteries are
01:02:41.140
going to be a real big part of that all right um apparently u.s oil output is going to drop um for the first time since uh
01:02:58.420
since the covet now that kind of had to happen right um trump's idea was to unleash energy
01:03:09.700
by you know drill baby drill and making it legal to drill in more places in more ways and easier to get
01:03:18.020
permits etc but the the obvious problem is that the more oil we drill the lower the cost of a barrel of
01:03:28.340
oil because you know supply and demand and then when you reach a certain point which apparently we reached
01:03:36.580
it doesn't make sense to drill anymore so you can't use that technique to just keep lowering energy costs you
01:03:44.820
can only only lower it to the point where it still makes sense to produce the energy and apparently we hit
01:03:52.420
that point so if you were waiting for the cost of energy to go down another you know x percent probably not
01:04:04.340
you we i think we had some kind of like floor and below that at least when it comes to the you know the
01:04:10.660
carbon fuels um probably won't go lower now the good news is that the u.s government uh working with
01:04:21.940
private industry is really going hard at nuclear energy and specifically the kind of nuclear plants
01:04:31.380
that don't have the meltdown risk so they they know how to do that basically at this point and so
01:04:39.620
building the micro reactors and the even the bigger reactors are using the new technology and the new
01:04:46.180
fuel we're gonna get to the point it might be i don't know 12 to 20 years from now because everything
01:04:55.940
takes too long where we're gonna have coming online a massive amount of low-cost electricity but at the
01:05:05.940
same time there'll be a massive demand for it through ai but at the same time and i don't see other people
01:05:17.140
adding this to their uh predictions but my prediction looks like this at the moment we think we need
01:05:27.860
like you know i don't know 100 nuclear power plants just to keep the lights on because ai is going to use
01:05:35.140
so much power that will just you know it'd be almost impossible to make too much but at the same time
01:05:43.380
we're trying to create all of that power i think people are trying to figure out how to have ai that
01:05:51.220
doesn't need that much power and my guess is that by about the same time all those nuclear power plants
01:06:00.340
come online will be about the same time we figured out that we don't need that much electricity
01:06:07.060
because we found you know clever workarounds and you know we we figured out you know take the entire ai
01:06:15.860
model and put it on your phone and so it's only using your phone electricity after that so i feel like
01:06:23.780
there's a point in 20 years i don't know and might be in five not five but probably 15 to 20 where we're
01:06:35.460
going to have a massive amount of electricity coming online and not really a massive demand anymore
01:06:44.340
at which point um the cost of energy could come down that might be the good news
01:06:54.740
all right ladies and gentlemen that is the end of my prepared statements um i hope you all feel smarter
01:07:02.500
and uh and a little bit more prepared for the day uh i'm going to talk to the uh subscribers on locals
01:07:12.900
privately for a minute the rest of you thank you so much for joining and i hope you come back tomorrow
01:07:19.460
same time same place where we'll solve whatever problems are left in this weird world all right local
01:07:28.260
local subscribers coming at you privately in 30 seconds