In this episode, Scott Adams talks about Israel's attack on Iran, and what it means for the Middle East, and the stock market. He also asks the question, what were the Iranians thinking when they knew Israel was about to attack Iran?
00:03:00.760Now, how many of you knew that Israel was going to attack yesterday?
00:03:07.960Now, I didn't know it would be yesterday.
00:03:10.100But when Trump announced he was drawing down the excess embassy staff, there wasn't another reason for doing that, unless he knew an attack was coming.
00:03:32.880Now, some people say that Trump was only negotiating because it would keep Iran thinking, oh, you know, the attack is not coming today because they're still negotiating.
00:03:48.080But I think when Trump drew down the embassy staff and tried to make sure that there were fewer targets over there that were American,
00:03:57.380I have got a feeling that the Iranians said to themselves, uh-oh, that would suggest that Trump, you know, maybe has, you know, already been warned about something.
00:04:13.240And sure enough, the bombs came pretty soon.
00:04:16.960Now, that was also after the, I told you yesterday, the IAEA found a violation in what Iran was doing with its nuclear program.
00:04:30.440And Iran was being defiant about it as opposed to trying to rectify that problem.
00:04:38.600So that was another sort of indication that something might be coming.
00:04:45.220And then Israel has said, as Trump has said, that they'd love to have a negotiated agreement, but Iran can't have a nuke.
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00:12:16.180So it might take them a little while to reorganize and decide how they're going to respond.
00:12:23.940Now, Trump, the way Trump was playing it, was to try to keep the United States out of it, so that when Iran responds, which of course they will, that they would respond only against Israel.
00:12:43.300But it seems that Israel is lumping, well, Iran is lumping Israel and the United States together as the two devils that must be defeated.
00:13:15.600So if Israel wanted bunker busters, the U.S. would have to deliver them, you know, not just deliver them to Israel, but deliver them to the bomb site and drop them with their own bombers.
00:13:35.320And it doesn't look like that's going to happen unless Iran attacks the United States' interests.
00:13:44.100If Iran decides, okay, we're not going to buy this, Israel is doing it by itself, it's always with the help of America.
00:13:54.640If they decide to treat it as one thing and they go after Israel, but they also go after American assets, I don't think it would be long before Trump would say,
00:14:09.260all right, here come the bunker busters, and they would take out the nuclear fortresses that are extra deep.
00:14:17.600I'm not even sure if the bunker busters could get the main one.
00:14:22.140There's one of them that's like 50 miles underground or something.
00:14:38.700Makes me wonder if there's a cyber attack coming because Iran would presumably have hackers and they would presumably be able to, you know, do a cyber attack on Israel and the U.S.
00:16:00.940And given that Iran won't know in advance which way that would go, that would be the famous Trump unpredictability.
00:16:11.260Definitely working in our favor right now.
00:16:13.620I feel like Iran will probably hold off and not attack U.S. interests because that would just be the – it would seem like the risk would be too high.
00:16:28.860And so Trump is playing this very interesting game where he's pretending we have nothing to do with it.
00:16:38.640Well, we were informed, but we're not part of the attack.
00:16:42.860At the same time, he's telling Iran that Israel is using U.S. weapons, and they have no idea how much trouble they're in because those weapons are really good.
00:17:00.500On one hand, he's saying, we're not involved.
00:17:03.780And on the other hand, he's saying, they're using our weapons, so you're basically going to get wiped out.
00:17:09.000Now, given that Israel successfully took out the generals, do you think that the non-military leadership, you know, the supreme leader and his minions, do you think that Israel has no way to get to them?
00:17:30.640Well, I would assume that Israel could get to them as easily as they got to the generals.
00:17:42.180So, one possibility is that Israel is making sure to keep alive the current leadership, so they have somebody to make peace with, I guess.
00:17:56.940On the other hand, it's entirely possible that Israel has decided that they're going to go for a total victory.
00:18:07.160Total victory would be replacing the leadership.
00:18:12.920But the ideal way to do it would be if the local population decided to stage an uprising because they didn't like the war that their leaders got them into.
00:18:27.040However, now that we've all been Mike Benzized, we understand how color revolutions work, and we understand, you know, when the CIA is involved and USAID used to be, if you heard that there was an internal, local Iranian uprising against the leadership, would you believe that was organic?
00:18:57.040In 2025, are we not well informed at this point that whenever there seems to be some kind of grassroots organic protest that it's never real, that it's always fake?
00:19:12.640So, I don't really see the local population rising up against the leadership.
00:24:19.780In this case, do you think that we'd be, not we, but do you think Israel would be satisfied with just destroying the current assets of the regime and then pulling back and letting them reconstitute?
00:28:12.500So, I don't know if it's true, but nobody would believe that.
00:28:18.280So, this is one of those cases where the Holocaust narrative works in favor of Israel because it gives them more options.
00:28:27.340If, if you put us, let's say the United States, in this situation where your enemy was developing nuclear weapons and telling you that their plan is to kill all of you,
00:28:42.500would you act in a military way before that was possible to stop them?
00:28:53.040Well, it's hard to imagine it would be any country that would not do some version of what Israel is doing right now,
00:29:01.180which is saying, all right, we can't, we can't live in the same neighborhood as you when you're developing nukes and telling us you're going to kill us all,
00:29:10.380even if you're lying about the killing us all part.
00:29:15.440So, there was only one way this was going to go, right?
00:29:21.480How many of you thought there was some other way this would go?
00:29:27.020To me, it seemed obvious that Israel was going to have to attack.
00:29:32.400Now, remember, I started off by telling you, I'm not, I'm not the one who approves of what other countries do or disapprove.
00:30:18.380So, most of the military assets that Israel is using appear to be their air force and missiles.
00:30:30.220So, the good news is for Israel that whatever fatigue their military has from Gaza, and I would imagine it's quite a bit,
00:30:41.620that's not exactly the same military force that they're going to use against Iran because Gaza is mostly, at least at this point, a ground war.
00:30:55.340And Iran is almost entirely an air war.
00:31:00.180So, you know, they probably do have enough assets to do both at the moment
00:31:06.320because Gaza is reasonably under control from a military perspective.
00:33:43.340So, you could argue that that's not yet a material way, because Israel probably shot down most of them.
00:33:49.640But I'm not on that page, but only because I don't know one way or the other.
00:33:59.940It's an interesting, kind of an interesting prediction, because we might see for the next few days not much of a reaction beyond, you know,
00:34:39.740So, I will join with Cernovich this far, which is, you could imagine a range of things that Iran could do that would be bad for the United States.
00:34:55.920I feel like they're not going to do the whole range.
00:35:00.420In other words, I don't think there would be much of a cyber attack, even if they're capable of doing one.
00:35:09.780There might be a little one, or, you know, maybe one we don't know where it's coming from.
00:35:13.960And I don't think they're going to unleash the domestic terrorists to, you know, bring down buildings in the United States,