Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2869 CWSA 06⧸15⧸25

00:00:00.240 It's about time. Come on in. Come on in. Yep. And welcome. Good morning and welcome to the

00:00:19.860 highlight of human civilization. It's called Coffee with Scott Adams and you've never had

00:00:25.960 a better time. And it's also Father's Day. Happy Father's Day. But if you'd like to take

00:00:33.940 this experience up to levels that no one can even understand with their tiny, shiny human

00:00:40.600 brains, all you need for that is a cup or a mug or a glass or tank or shells, a stein and

00:00:46.040 candy, a jug or a flask, a vessel of a kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like

00:00:51.960 coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dope, mean hit of the day, the

00:00:59.060 thing that makes everything better. It's called the simultaneous sip. It happens now. Go.

00:01:12.940 Wow. So good. Let's see if we can get our comments going. And then we've got something.

00:01:21.960 All right. Incredible. It's all working. Well, let's start with the big tragic story.

00:01:31.820 As you know, there was a shooting in Minnesota. I guess targeted were four lawmakers, so state

00:01:45.860 lawmakers. Two of them were killed. Two of them were wounded, husband and wife. And the man who did it

00:01:55.140 is still at large. And he had a weird mask on that made him look like a bald man. Or made him look like

00:02:06.900 me actually. But he looked like a policeman. Somehow he had a police car and a police outfit. And

00:02:20.340 he used that as his entry for shooting four people. Two of them died. Now, of course, because we're all bad

00:02:31.540 people, instead of thinking about the victims, which we should be thinking about, we think about the

00:02:40.100 politics. And most of the news is obsessed with trying to figure out, is he a crazy leftist or a crazy 0.97

00:02:50.820 right-wing guy? I'm going to go on record as saying I don't care. Because the damage is done. 0.96

00:03:02.740 And he's crazy. You know, whether he's crazy left or crazy right, I'm not really keeping score that way. 0.95

00:03:11.860 Yeah. Yeah. These are anecdotal. There's something wrong with that one person. And they may or may not

00:03:20.420 have a coherent set of ideas. But trying to understand them, I don't know. It's probably not worth it.

00:03:30.340 But we will look through all of his various indications to try to figure out, is he left or is he right?

00:03:39.700 Because that would, I guess that would improve our political arguments? Is that what we need to worry

00:03:48.900 about right now? Improving our political arguments? Well, he's definitely leaving a

00:03:58.820 set of clues that could make you imagine and see it the way. So I'm not even going to guess

00:04:05.540 if he's crazy left or crazy right. He is crazy. And he's on the loose. So watch out. 0.99

00:04:17.860 What else? So yesterday, as you know, was the No Kings events. So all over the country, people made up

00:04:27.540 signs and they marched, no kings, no kings in the United States. And it worked. I have to admit, 1.00

00:04:37.860 I was skeptical at first. I was like, really? Do they need to do that? Is there any benefit from doing

00:04:45.220 that? And sure enough, I woke up this morning and there were no kings. It worked.

00:04:51.860 It worked. Man, you really don't expect that things will work that fast. But one day of marching and no

00:05:05.460 kings, none at all. So good job. Millions of people have participated and did their affirmations. 0.99

00:05:14.820 And it worked. There are no kings today. Ironically, there was a big 250th anniversary of the army military

00:05:27.380 parade. What was it that the military did 250 years ago? Oh yeah, they got rid of our king.

00:05:37.300 So they added no king march that was opposing the military parade, which was a celebration of the

00:05:50.740 military getting rid of the king. So if there's one thing we can all agree on, it's no kings. It's the

00:06:01.300 weirdest thing. You know, if the worst thing you have to worry about is that both the left and the right

00:06:08.500 are adamant about having no kings, well, we're not doing too poorly. So we got that going on.

00:06:19.140 The no kings protest was very large, but apparently it was completely overshadowed by the

00:06:26.420 the tragedy of the four people who were shot. And so it just took it right out of the news, basically.

00:06:37.140 So probably half of the energy got sucked up into a different news story, sadly.

00:06:43.700 Um, but on top of that, it was the war in Iran. So, you know, if you're if you were planning a protest,

00:06:55.460 you picked the wrong weekend. That was a very noisy, you know, news filled weekend. So sorry about that.

00:07:05.860 Um, I guess, uh, at the no kings protest, according to the amuse account, some of them tried to

00:07:13.780 storm the LA ice facility. Yeah. Where was that in Portland? And that didn't work out. So it was mostly

00:07:24.420 under control. All right. It was the, they said it's the biggest, uh, single day anti Trump protest

00:07:34.500 during the second administration. Well, it doesn't matter how big it is. It matters how much publicity

00:07:43.700 it gets. And it didn't do well on the publicity. So I watched a little bit of the military parade.

00:07:52.340 Um, I had a comment that I thought was just me until I saw a bunch of other people on social media.

00:08:00.980 Did it seem to you like the marching was especially ragged?

00:08:07.220 You know, it's not like, uh, it's not like I should be criticizing anybody in the military,

00:08:14.340 but did anybody have that same impression? Like, hmm, I feel like they could march a little bit better

00:08:21.460 than that. Well, I don't know what that was all about, but it was a robot dog or two.

00:08:27.060 So it's the first military parade with robot dogs. Um, I liked the voiceover guy.

00:08:36.580 So the parade would have been super boring, except there was a voiceover guy. And I assume you could

00:08:44.580 hear him at the event or not just on TV, but he was, uh, giving context. You know, this, uh, this unit of

00:08:53.620 historical soldiers did this or that, this unit did that. That was kind of, made it kind of interesting.

00:09:02.740 Um, MSNBC, of course, had to cover it, but they wanted to make something negative of it.

00:09:11.940 So here's how our MSNBC tried to spin a military parade that was celebrating the same military that

00:09:21.620 got rid of our king and has protected us all these years. And, uh, they decided that the way to cover

00:09:30.820 it was to claim that they can read Trump's mind. So MSNBC was this whole mind reader thing.

00:09:40.180 We have read his mind and we have determined that Trump is not honoring the military.

00:09:48.820 No, because they read his mind. There's no outward indication, you know, outwardly,

00:09:55.540 it looks like he is honoring the military because every single outward symbol and all of his history

00:10:04.340 and all of everything we know about him suggests he is honoring the military. So MSNBC read his mind

00:10:14.820 and determined that really what he was doing was, uh, displaying a show of force to intimidate his

00:10:22.740 political rivals.

00:10:27.140 Did anybody pick up on that?

00:10:28.820 Uh, was anybody watching the military parade and saying, Whoa, his, his political rivals are going to be

00:10:37.540 afraid of these people dressed in, uh, uh, revolutionary war outfits, carrying muskets?

00:10:45.380 Um, so that was just, that was a little bit crazy. Then, uh, then also in MSNBC, they tried to tie

00:10:56.580 the, uh, the, uh, the military parade to Trump pardoning violence, uh, January Sixers and the

00:11:04.660 normalization of political violence.

00:11:08.980 All right. Does anybody get that?

00:11:11.620 So apparently the, instead of honoring the military, uh, MSNBC thought it was normalizing political violence.

00:11:22.900 Uh, they had to reach pretty deep for that one. Um, and then there was, uh, uh, uh,

00:11:35.380 uh, who escalate violent rhetoric. So yeah, they're worried about violent rhetoric.

00:11:40.580 And then Jen Psaki, uh, Jen Psaki to the, uh, the ultimate crazy, crazy lady take. She said, uh, 1.00

00:11:52.740 that what was really in Trump's head was not honoring the military, but it was his own birthday party.

00:11:59.460 Uh, uh, uh, of the military, uh, of the military, uh, of the military, uh, of the army, I guess.

00:12:12.560 Um, that that was a coincidence, but what was really in Trump's head was throwing himself a birthday party.

00:12:19.780 Now, is it my imagination that that's not just a bad take? 0.99

00:12:31.020 I mean, that's just bad shit crazy. 0.97

00:12:34.800 Anyway, and then one of the correspondents, Velci, I think, 0.98

00:12:42.120 he said he was surprised that unlike the Trump rallies,

00:12:47.100 that this military parade did not have, and they were surprised,

00:12:52.760 it did not have a lot of dark, malevolent energy.

00:12:59.180 What world are they living in that Trump is throwing himself a birthday party

00:13:05.960 to intimidate his rivals,

00:13:09.960 and he left out the dark, malevolent energy this time, I guess.

00:13:17.100 Boy, they had to try really hard and failed.

00:13:21.920 Well, as Meggie Hemingway pointed out in a post the next,

00:13:27.460 she said, whatever is ailing the Democrats,

00:13:30.660 I'm pretty sure Democrat senators posting open hatred of the United States Army

00:13:35.940 celebrating its 250th birthday is not going to help.

00:13:39.800 So, once again, Trump has baited the Democrats

00:13:47.140 into taking the side of the 20 in the 80-20 issue.

00:13:52.860 How many people are really, like,

00:13:56.780 anti the United States having a military?

00:13:59.540 Anyway, so John Fetterman did his Fetterman thing

00:14:07.640 where he bucked the common thinking of the Democrats

00:14:12.880 and, you know, he had an opinion that our Republicans would like.

00:14:19.020 He said, regardless of your politics,

00:14:24.440 it's appropriate to celebrate the 250 years of sacrifice, dedication, and service.

00:14:30.880 So Fetterman was all in on honoring the army.

00:14:37.200 All right, well, let's talk about Israel and Iran.

00:14:43.960 So, once again, there have been missiles and rockets and bombs exchanged.

00:14:52.820 Israel is taking some casualties now.

00:14:56.160 Eight people killed, four children, 200 injured, 35 still missing.

00:15:01.300 So, that's pretty bad.

00:15:04.020 And that will probably continue for some time.

00:15:07.880 We don't know how long.

00:15:10.160 But the back and forth is underway.

00:15:13.500 So, we've got a number of things to say about that topic.

00:15:18.020 Number one, I made four predictions.

00:15:21.600 So, you can track me.

00:15:23.940 So, see what you think about these four predictions.

00:15:28.160 So, prediction number one.

00:15:30.020 This is just from me.

00:15:32.960 There will be no organic popular uprising that removes Iran's leaders.

00:15:40.040 Now, I'm not saying there won't be a pretend popular uprising.

00:15:46.360 You know, maybe some kind of organized thing that got organized by the U.S. or Israel or something.

00:15:53.040 But I just don't believe the population of Iran is in the mood to gather on the streets and do a big protest and get rid of their leaders. 0.84

00:16:06.480 And the reason for that is they're under attack.

00:16:10.800 And I don't think that people under attack take the side of the attacker.

00:16:17.520 And it's the attackers who would like the leadership to change.

00:16:25.300 Now, I agree that it is very likely that there are a lot of Iranian citizens who also want the administration to change.

00:16:34.180 But they might not have to do anything about it.

00:16:38.560 They're probably saying, if I just wait, it might take care of itself, if you know what I mean.

00:16:45.000 So, I don't think the – I wouldn't wait for the public in Iran to join the uprising.

00:16:53.900 I think they'll sit down.

00:16:56.600 Number two, Iran will not return to the negotiating table and give up its nuclear ambitions.

00:17:03.180 But the latest says that Iran is actually asking about returning to the negotiating table.

00:17:14.840 However, even if they do return to the table, I believe that they would only stall and that it would be a tactic.

00:17:24.920 I do not believe they would return to the table and legitimately say, you know what?

00:17:31.820 We were really wrong about this nuclear stuff.

00:17:34.760 We give it all up.

00:17:36.520 Let's immediately blah, blah, blah.

00:17:39.280 Now, the reason for that is that they are publicly asking for negotiations.

00:17:47.720 But what they're not saying is that they would be now willing to give up the one and only thing that was the sticking point, which was the nuclear program.

00:17:59.280 If they really wanted to stop the bombing and they really planned to give up their nuclear ambitions, all they'd have to do is say, hey, let's go back to the negotiating table and we'll talk about our nuclear program.

00:18:15.840 It's now in play.

00:18:18.300 All they'd have to do is say it's on the table and that we could talk about it and then it would look different.

00:18:24.700 But they don't say that.

00:18:26.380 So I'm going to say that they will just never give up their nuclear ambitions.

00:18:31.860 Claudia was leaving for her pickleball tournament.

00:18:34.000 I've been visualizing my match all week.

00:18:36.480 She was so focused on visualizing that she didn't see the column behind her car on her backhand side.

00:18:42.480 Good thing Claudia is with Intact.

00:18:44.240 The insurer with the largest network of auto service centers in the country.

00:18:48.200 Everything was taken care of under one roof and she was on her way in a rental car in no time.

00:18:52.660 I made it to my tournament and lost in the first round.

00:18:56.120 But you got there on time.

00:18:57.960 Intact Insurance.

00:18:59.140 Your auto service ace.

00:19:00.600 Certain conditions apply.

00:19:03.900 Number three.

00:19:05.200 I predict that Israel will not stop attacking until they have achieved everything they want. 0.99

00:19:12.400 Now that leaves a little wiggle room because you and I can disagree on what it is they want.

00:19:19.500 Do they want to change the regime leadership?

00:19:25.600 Or do they want to simply destroy the current nuclear program and go home?

00:19:32.580 Or do they want to destroy Iran's ability to make any kind of military action anywhere?

00:19:49.680 Or do they want to control the country with puppets?

00:19:54.000 So we don't know what they want, but I can tell you for sure they're not going to go home until they get it.

00:20:01.680 Whatever it is they want.

00:20:04.100 They do not seem in the mood to go halfway.

00:20:09.620 It's just not the halfway administration.

00:20:12.920 It's sort of the, if we're going to do this, we're going to do it all the way.

00:20:17.100 And number four, I believe that Israel's prediction that it would be done in two weeks is not accurate.

00:20:30.200 I believe they will not be done in two weeks.

00:20:33.520 I don't know if it will take a month or two months or longer, but I don't know how they could be done.

00:20:42.200 Done just seems hard.

00:20:43.840 Anyway, apparently Elon Musk has activated Starlink in Iran because they lost their Internet.

00:20:54.760 And I guess we're thinking that the public would be more organized against the leadership if they had the Internet.

00:21:04.540 But again, I'm predicting that there will not be a massive, organic, popular uprising.

00:21:11.800 We shall see.

00:21:18.460 Apparently now Israel's saying that U.S. involvement would be necessary to do what they need to do.

00:21:27.880 Now, given that I already said they're not going to be done until they get everything they want.

00:21:34.000 So, what is it exactly that only the American interaction could solve?

00:21:43.280 Is it the bunker busting?

00:21:46.220 Or is it much more than that?

00:21:48.900 Because if they had only said, there's just one thing we need, you know, we just need to bunker bust these two bunkers,

00:21:59.300 then that would be limited and that we could argue whether that's a terrible idea or a great idea.

00:22:06.980 But we'd know what it was.

00:22:08.560 But apparently Israel's just saying that U.S. involvement is necessary.

00:22:15.480 So, what exactly would that be?

00:22:19.100 Well, Scott Jennings happens to be over there.

00:22:23.220 And he issued this opinion from Israel.

00:22:26.620 He said that Trump would be justified in taking out the Fordow Nuclear Enrichment Facility.

00:22:34.160 It would be a righteous decision.

00:22:36.580 Would it?

00:22:37.480 According to who?

00:22:38.960 And if he doesn't, no question in my mind that he would deserve the Nobel Peace Prize.

00:22:46.460 Well, I'm going to make another prediction.

00:22:48.480 You don't get the Nobel Peace Prize by dropping a bunker buster bomb on your enemies.

00:22:57.700 You know, even if you think you deserve it.

00:23:01.400 That is not how you get a peace prize.

00:23:04.920 Avoiding a bomb might get you a peace prize.

00:23:09.420 Anyway.

00:23:11.820 Apparently, according to the Times of Israel,

00:23:15.280 Trump recently told Netanyahu that the U.S. would consider striking that Fordow Nuclear Facility,

00:23:26.080 which would require some bunker busing,

00:23:29.460 if it were necessary to prevent Iran from requiring a nuclear weapon.

00:23:34.800 Now, this is in the Times of Israel, so one source.

00:23:41.860 So, we'll see.

00:23:43.180 Now, I saw a log-ish message on X from investor Bill Ackman,

00:23:51.560 who's getting more involved in sort of international and national politics.

00:23:58.920 And he's always interesting because he's got well-thought-out opinions.

00:24:03.760 But he's got this, he's got an opinion on finishing the job,

00:24:10.640 in terms of Israel finishing the job.

00:24:14.160 And he says,

00:24:16.000 we should not let this opportunity pass.

00:24:22.720 Israel doesn't have the equipment and armaments to complete the job, 1.00

00:24:26.740 but we do, and it does not require boots on the ground.

00:24:31.460 He goes, so, let's help them finish the job.

00:24:37.840 Finish the job.

00:24:40.080 What do you think that would look like?

00:24:43.640 So, let me just sort of tweak your imagination.

00:24:48.580 So, imagine, if you will, that the U.S. helps Israel destroy what's left of the nuclear facilities in Iran. 0.52

00:24:59.540 Then what?

00:25:01.500 Do we just leave?

00:25:05.000 And then, then what happens? 0.99

00:25:07.520 Does Iran say, oh, darn it. 0.98

00:25:10.220 Well, we tried to build those nuclear weapons, 0.99

00:25:12.900 but that didn't work out.

00:25:15.220 So, I guess we won't do that again.

00:25:18.560 And then we won't cause any trouble,

00:25:20.780 because there might be another war.

00:25:23.700 Is that what happens?

00:25:25.520 That doesn't sound like Iran, does it?

00:25:28.860 Is it finishing the job when you replace the leadership?

00:25:35.700 Because if we replace it, it would look like a puppet.

00:25:39.140 And if they replace it, it would probably look like more hardliners.

00:25:44.520 So, what exactly would look like finishing the job?

00:25:50.440 Would it require dominating the country and essentially owning it forever?

00:25:58.840 Would it, you know, like I said, the puppets wouldn't work and the hardliners don't work,

00:26:03.880 because they would just reconstitute the risk to Israel.

00:26:08.000 So, if you can't define what finishing the job looks like,

00:26:15.500 and, you know, maybe some people have a specific idea,

00:26:19.100 but it's not a generally agreed upon idea,

00:26:23.300 how can you operate on that?

00:26:27.940 If you don't know what the end goal should look like.

00:26:31.440 So, we've got a problem, which is, if we don't do anything,

00:26:38.800 things could eventually get worse,

00:26:42.400 because they'll be looking for revenge,

00:26:44.560 no matter how many years it takes them to reconstitute some kind of threat.

00:26:49.120 And it might be a different threat.

00:26:50.740 You know, maybe it's not nuclear next time.

00:26:52.900 Maybe it's drones, and God knows what.

00:26:55.820 It loaded onto the drones.

00:26:58.900 So, it seems to me that no matter what we do,

00:27:04.580 we leave them wounded and really, really mad.

00:27:10.180 Don't they just come back worse than before?

00:27:15.220 I don't know.

00:27:15.700 So, I'm looking for a better idea than the ones that are out there,

00:27:20.140 because, to me, it looks like every path leads to Iran reconstituting their threat,

00:27:26.760 whether it's five years from now or ten years from now.

00:27:30.600 So, I don't know.

00:27:32.140 I don't know what the finish looks like.

00:27:35.900 Israel has vowed that, quote, 0.63

00:27:38.420 we have more surprises coming for Iran.

00:27:41.360 So, Fox News is reporting that.

00:27:45.940 Apparently, Iran was projected to have 8,000 ballistic missiles within two years.

00:27:53.120 They apparently have 2,000.

00:27:55.080 I guess the ballistic missiles are the ones that are hard to stop

00:27:58.280 and carry the biggest payloads.

00:28:02.180 So, I'll ask the same question.

00:28:04.920 If we destroyed all of their ballistic missiles

00:28:08.320 and all of their nuclear facilities,

00:28:11.360 how long would it take them to rebuild at least

00:28:15.940 the manufacturing for more ballistic missiles?

00:28:21.280 Because isn't that a stuff you can, you know,

00:28:25.080 you can slap together?

00:28:26.600 I mean, not a slap together,

00:28:28.480 but if you already know how to make ballistic missiles,

00:28:33.920 it seems to me that it would be maybe one year

00:28:38.520 it would take to rebuild the manufacturing to build them again

00:28:43.100 and then you make $100,000 next time.

00:28:46.820 So, what does it mean to finish off or finish the job?

00:28:55.560 Anyway, we're surprised this coming.

00:28:58.240 We'll see what that is.

00:28:59.040 So, like I said, Iran has apparently tried to reach the United States

00:29:09.320 through Oman and Qatar to mediate with Washington,

00:29:15.120 which suggests that we don't have any kind of direct communication with Iran,

00:29:21.800 which is weird.

00:29:22.660 Do we really have no direct communication?

00:29:26.340 Or is it because all of their leadership is in a don't communicate mode

00:29:32.060 because then we can find them more easily?

00:29:35.300 So, it might be that they have to be so careful about how they communicate

00:29:39.860 that even if they could pick up the phone and just call Washington,

00:29:44.480 they can't pick up the phone and just call Washington

00:29:46.760 because they would get bombed within a minute and a half.

00:29:49.820 So, it could be that they just have to go through this weird, circuitous route

00:29:55.320 just so we can't track who it is who's even giving the instructions.

00:30:02.060 So, anyway.

00:30:04.680 So, I don't think Iran is 100% serious about negotiating,

00:30:10.720 but they might act like they are.

00:30:12.160 When I found out my friend got a great deal on a wool coat from Winners,

00:30:16.520 I started wondering,

00:30:18.180 is every fabulous item I see from Winners?

00:30:21.280 Like that woman over there with the designer jeans. 1.00

00:30:24.000 Are those from Winners?

00:30:25.520 Ooh, or those beautiful gold earrings?

00:30:28.000 Did she pay full price?

00:30:29.340 Or that leather tote?

00:30:30.360 Or that cashmere sweater?

00:30:31.580 Or those knee-high boots?

00:30:33.020 That dress?

00:30:33.820 That jacket?

00:30:34.480 Those shoes?

00:30:35.500 Is anyone paying full price for anything?

00:30:38.480 Stop wondering.

00:30:39.720 Start winning.

00:30:40.280 Winners find fabulous for less.

00:30:44.480 So, I guess the prime minister of Cyprus says Iran has asked them

00:30:49.540 to convey a message to Israel.

00:30:52.580 And really?

00:30:53.800 That's the only way they can get to Israel is through Cyprus?

00:30:59.760 I don't know.

00:31:01.160 Seems like they would have some kind of an email or something.

00:31:04.620 It seems that at the very least they should be able to email Israel.

00:31:12.780 So, Trump is reinforcing on his truth social that the U.S. had nothing to do with the attack.

00:31:21.380 Now, I don't know.

00:31:22.780 Do you believe that?

00:31:24.600 Do you believe that we had nothing to do with it?

00:31:28.000 That might be, you know, our intent.

00:31:33.780 But it seems like we have such close, you know, military arrangements with Israel that in every case,

00:31:41.300 we'd have some kind of indirect, you know, support, whether we intended it that way or not.

00:31:48.840 Anyway, he says, the U.S. had nothing to do with the attacks on Iran tonight.

00:31:54.500 If we are attacked in any way, blah, blah, blah, bad things will happen.

00:32:00.280 So, there's that.

00:32:01.200 According to an ex-post on Vizigrad 24, Israel destroyed the Shiraz Electronics Industry plant.

00:32:14.580 That's the only place that, no, the largest producer of radar systems in Iran.

00:32:19.880 Now, if Israel is targeting radar manufacturing plants in Iran, does that mean they're running out of better targets?

00:32:36.720 Because that would be, you know, obviously I understand why they'd want to take out a radar manufacturing plant.

00:32:43.440 But it wouldn't be on the top rung of targets, would it?

00:32:49.300 Because it's not an immediate thing.

00:32:51.500 Does that mean that they've already taken out all of the top level, like top priority targets?

00:33:00.860 Everything they could shoot today or do radar today?

00:33:05.980 Are they, just makes you wonder, did they get everything that's a higher priority?

00:33:10.900 And now they're down to manufacturing plants?

00:33:14.700 Even though I understand, you know, why they would want to target it.

00:33:18.820 So, that's a little hint that maybe Israel got more than we thought.

00:33:28.040 Of course, there's always a subplot with any kind of, whenever Israel's involved in any kind of military action,

00:33:37.820 there's a subplot about which side is targeting the more civilians.

00:33:45.160 So, Iran is apparently just indiscriminately targeting civilian areas.

00:33:51.880 Israel is doing their usual thing, which is trying hard to hit military targets and avoid civilian stuff.

00:34:01.540 But, of course, it's a war, so civilians will inevitably, you know, be hurt.

00:34:10.860 And one of my questions is, how accurate are Iran's missiles and drones?

00:34:18.940 Can we say for sure that every time they hit an apartment building, they aimed for it?

00:34:24.600 Or are they aiming for the city and they're lucky if they had anything?

00:34:30.940 Now, in either case, you could argue that they're targeting civilians because they're not trying to miss civilians.

00:34:37.300 But it matters a little bit if they have any control.

00:34:44.100 So, I'm thinking the ballistic missiles probably are kind of accurate. 0.95

00:34:51.140 And maybe the drones are accurate, but smaller payloads.

00:34:56.580 So, I'm kind of curious about how much they can control.

00:35:00.940 In either case, it's all bad and evil and it's war. 0.91

00:35:07.160 But that's always a subplot.

00:35:09.420 Who is worse on going after civilians?

00:35:17.260 Now, Tim Walsh made a provocative statement at some event.

00:35:22.600 He said that maybe China will be seen as the only moral authority that would be able to talk peace with both Israel and Iran.

00:35:36.900 Now, of course, we're all, you know, that's a red meat for the media.

00:35:44.140 China, being a moral authority.

00:35:46.180 Now, I don't think any of us believe that China is morally superior to anyone else.

00:35:55.980 But it might be true that China has not tried to make Israel or Iran an enemy.

00:36:03.680 Now, from that point of view, if he would take out the moral part and just say from a practical perspective,

00:36:14.180 it might be that China might be exactly the kind of entity that, you know,

00:36:20.320 because it's not an enemy of either of them, maybe they can do something productive.

00:36:28.140 We'll see.

00:36:28.780 But whenever I see Tim Walsh say anything positive about China,

00:36:35.020 it makes me think about all the times he's visited.

00:36:39.320 And it makes me think, I don't think that China encourages that many visits unless they're working that guy,

00:36:49.040 you know, trying to turn that guy into an asset.

00:36:51.740 And that doesn't mean he got flipped and he's any kind of a spy, although you never know.

00:36:59.240 But, you know, I have no evidence he's a spy.

00:37:03.060 But then, you know, he just slips in a little thing about China having the moral authority to handle this big problem.

00:37:11.260 And it makes you wonder, how much brainwashing did he get in all those many trips to China?

00:37:19.800 Because this looks a little brainwashy.

00:37:24.400 You know, like China accomplished their goal of brainwashing Tim Walsh because he had enough trips over there. 0.86

00:37:33.000 You know, if you do it, how many trips did he do?

00:37:36.700 Like 30?

00:37:38.320 30 trips with students and stuff?

00:37:42.920 I don't know.

00:37:43.700 Looks a little bit brainwashy.

00:37:45.400 Well, yes, Trump and Vladimir Putin had a one-hour conversation by phone on Saturday, according to Just the News.

00:37:59.380 And the outcome of their one-hour conversation is that they both agreed the war with Israel and Iran should end.

00:38:08.820 And then Trump says, he feels as I do, this war in Israel and Iran should end, to which I explained his war should also end.

00:38:18.960 So, apparently they wasted an hour.

00:38:24.840 What was the point of that conversation?

00:38:28.880 Was one of them going to say, oh, we'd like that war to just keep on going?

00:38:33.500 No, of course they want the Israel-Iran war to be end.

00:38:38.260 You know, there's no benefit to any of us.

00:38:42.400 So, that was a waste of an hour.

00:38:46.260 But I think Putin had offered to help mediate the situation.

00:38:52.800 And again, you know, I'm not going to say Putin is a moral authority.

00:38:57.500 But as far as I know, Putin has a good relationship with both Israel and Iran, right?

00:39:06.200 Similar to China. 0.71

00:39:09.060 So, maybe, maybe he can help.

00:39:13.040 And Putin is talking about getting back to the negotiating table with Ukraine.

00:39:20.080 I don't know if he means that.

00:39:21.860 It's hard to know if he's serious about that, but he said it.

00:39:27.520 So, maybe.

00:39:28.540 We'll see.

00:39:30.780 AOC is going hard at the elders in her party.

00:39:38.640 And she said this recently about the older established people in the Democratic Party.

00:39:44.620 She says, it doesn't matter how much you work with them.

00:39:47.540 They still will choose their old friends and an old generation every single time. 0.56

00:39:55.460 So, David Hogg going after those older ones.

00:40:00.240 And AOC now going after the older ones.

00:40:03.960 I don't think you'll see Bernie Sanders go after the older ones because he is one of the older ones.

00:40:10.360 So, that's a little awkward.

00:40:12.840 A little bit awkward, AOC.

00:40:14.660 Because it does seem like Bernie is one of the old ones, but not one of the old.

00:40:22.100 He's not one of the old networks, though.

00:40:24.440 He would be outside the network.

00:40:27.860 All right.

00:40:28.480 But it doesn't look like the Democrats have a good plan to come together and beat the Republicans.

00:40:37.680 It looks like they have a plan to fight with each other.

00:40:40.920 And maybe that will make them stronger.

00:40:42.840 We'll see.

00:40:43.300 So, Trump is already in Canada, I believe, for the G7, where the big seven economies get together.

00:40:58.160 And it's sort of awkward because he's there on the same weekend as the No Kings event.

00:41:08.560 And Canada has a king.

00:41:13.640 So, Canada wanted to get in on this No Kings thing.

00:41:17.700 But they realized they have a king.

00:41:22.260 Which is hilarious to me.

00:41:24.340 So, they had to change it to No Tyrants.

00:41:26.380 So, yeah, good luck there.

00:41:33.580 So, yeah, Trump's in G7.

00:41:36.060 So, it's also awkward because he wants to, you know, absorb Canada and the United States.

00:41:42.060 But I think he's over that awkwardness.

00:41:47.900 According to also just the news, the curfews that have been put in place for LA, because there was a lot of unrest with the anti-ICE protests.

00:42:01.020 Apparently, the curfews worked.

00:42:04.200 So, Mayor Bass put some curfews in effect.

00:42:10.220 And it accomplished everything they wanted, which was less trouble at night.

00:42:17.360 So, what do people say when you do something that works?

00:42:23.720 They always say the same thing.

00:42:26.400 Well, why didn't you do it sooner?

00:42:30.080 Now, that's kind of a fair question in this case.

00:42:34.980 But if the best you have is, why didn't you do it sooner?

00:42:39.420 Well, I don't know.

00:42:41.440 I'll take the win.

00:42:43.100 You know, I hate to be the one who says, why didn't you do it sooner?

00:42:48.360 But here we are.

00:42:50.720 Everything good could have happened sooner.

00:42:53.580 So, it looks like the anti-ICE demonstrations wound down.

00:43:00.440 But does that mean they'll just wind right back up again?

00:43:04.280 Or was it like squeezing the toothpaste and now they just go later in other cities?

00:43:14.220 I don't know.

00:43:14.720 So, does anybody think any of these alleged anti-Trump protests are anything but theater?

00:43:24.120 None of it looks real or like it would have any kind of political impact.

00:43:30.480 It all looks totally artificial.

00:43:34.040 I think maybe the entire purpose of it is to make other people think they're a part of something important.

00:43:42.040 So, they'll actually, you know, vote and act and cry and, you know, worry and shake and all that other stuff.

00:43:50.560 So, most of the protests, I think, are propaganda and it's to make other people who are watching think there's more energy to get rid of Trump than there is.

00:44:04.500 And if you notice that the people who want to get rid of Trump, they only have vague ideas of what it is that their problem is.

00:44:15.200 It's so vague.

00:44:16.200 It's like, well, he's going to steal my democracy and then they also talk about all the things he's already done to which I think, like what?

00:44:28.000 He's done things that the courts have reversed, he's tried things that, you know, sometimes the court agrees on.

00:44:43.000 But it doesn't look very authoritarian to me, and I love his answer to it, that he's far from a king because it's just hard to get anything done, which is a really good response.

00:45:00.940 It is so hard for any president to get anything done that they're about as far away from being a king as you could possibly be.

00:45:10.840 But apparently all of the very worried, mentally ill Democrats have been convinced that he's up to no good and he's stealing their democracy forever.

00:45:26.180 And I don't know where it's happening.

00:45:30.140 I mean, there are definitely things that I don't love about what the administration is doing.

00:45:37.740 But it's not very, it's not very dangerous looking.

00:45:42.820 It seems all entirely, 100% pro-American, America first stuff.

00:45:49.500 So, we'll see.

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00:46:53.400 So, Trump is, the administration is looking at adding 36 more countries to the travel ban.

00:47:02.340 How many were there? Were there a dozen?

00:47:04.860 Yeah.

00:47:06.240 A dozen have already been added, but they're looking at 36 more, mostly in Africa.

00:47:12.480 The reasons for the bans are that the records from some countries are not dependable, so we can't tell what we're getting.

00:47:21.860 And in some cases, you know, in some cases, there's a foreign terrorist threat.

00:47:29.160 And in some cases, there are countries that have an unusual number of visa overstays.

00:47:39.680 So, if there's a country where every time somebody comes in legally, they don't leave when it's time to leave, then they get on the list.

00:47:49.540 So, is that authoritarian?

00:47:52.060 Well, like everything else, if the court says he can't do it, then it won't happen.

00:48:02.060 And if the court says he can do it, it just seems like he's protecting America.

00:48:06.800 So, you know, it's about as authoritarian as I'd want it to be.

00:48:14.360 Well, apparently, according to Newsmax, the administration is also dusting off this very long, dormant law, the Alien Registration Act, passed in 1940, which requires anybody who's not a citizen to register.

00:48:32.540 And so, it gives the administration one more thing to charge somebody with, because if they're here illegally, there's a good chance they have not registered.

00:48:45.020 I guess it's a misdemeanor, and they could have six months in jail or a $1,000 fine.

00:48:50.600 And they're supposed to register and get fingerprinted.

00:48:55.960 And probably just about nobody's done that.

00:48:59.920 So, it's sort of an add-on, just to make it more uncomfortable to be here illegally.

00:49:06.120 So, I think the Trump administration admits that the purpose of it is to essentially, you know, persuade the undocumented immigrants.

00:49:19.480 That's a bad idea to say.

00:49:20.920 Well, in completely different news, there was a study to show who the best tippers are by state, and California is named. 0.97

00:49:33.740 Now, if there's one thing I'm getting tired of, it's that whenever California is in the news, it's always because we suck.

00:49:43.280 When was the last time you saw a story where, and then California was at the top of the list, better than all the states?

00:49:53.800 It's beating all the states in, I don't know, education?

00:49:58.420 No.

00:49:59.940 So, here it is a story about the best and worst tippers.

00:50:05.000 Can you guess how California is handled?

00:50:09.760 Yes, of course, they're the worst tippers. 1.00

00:50:14.280 Californians are the worst tippers. 1.00

00:50:16.660 And the best are Delaware. 0.92

00:50:20.020 So, Delaware gave us the Biden family and really good tipping.

00:50:29.160 Why would California be so bad at tipping?

00:50:33.040 Does anybody have any idea?

00:50:34.520 Is it because of our demographic makeup, because we have a lot of non-citizens?

00:50:44.020 But that wouldn't affect tipping, would it?

00:50:46.760 I don't know. 0.99

00:50:48.340 So, I guess California just sucks at everything.

00:50:54.720 BBC reminds us that the world fertility is at dangerous levels basically everywhere.

00:51:02.740 But they go on to say that the affordability of having children might be the main reason.

00:51:12.260 And that seems right.

00:51:15.740 You know, we spend time trying to think, well, why are birth rates going down everywhere?

00:51:21.680 And we're thinking, oh, it's because testosterone is lower.

00:51:25.040 And we're thinking it's because of the news or because of our devices or whatever.

00:51:31.360 But I think it's just money.

00:51:34.340 I think it's money everywhere.

00:51:37.540 I think every country that has an affordability problem, they're just having fewer children.

00:51:46.400 It's just cause and effect.

00:51:47.800 So, how do you fix that?

00:51:53.220 Somehow, having children has to become affordable.

00:51:57.840 And I think daycare is the biggest thing.

00:52:02.140 If you can get rid of the daycare costs, it's not like the kids eat that much.

00:52:08.180 But the other thing that is crazy expensive is if kids are involved in a lot of events, like organizations.

00:52:18.720 If you have a kid who's in a sport and they're good at that sport, they're traveling all over the place.

00:52:27.320 And you've got to travel and sometimes you've got to spend the night and you've got to outfit them.

00:52:33.840 And it's really expensive.

00:52:36.040 So, if you were to fix the schools so that kids are not being required to pay for all this extracurricular stuff,

00:52:48.560 and you could fix the daycare, which feels like it's flexible with some kind of a shared responsibility sort of thing.

00:52:57.580 Seems like you could do it.

00:52:59.520 Then maybe you'd fix the population.

00:53:04.040 We'll see.

00:53:08.700 I see in the comments, we spend $10,000 a year on sports.

00:53:13.980 Yeah.

00:53:14.920 And that's probably common if you have a few kids in sports.

00:53:20.160 Anyway, in other news, according to interesting engineering,

00:53:25.920 there's new passive cooling technology for data centers.

00:53:32.960 Now, you might say to yourself, Scott, what could be less interesting than a new passive cooling center for data centers?

00:53:41.420 Well, one of the things I've been predicting is that we think we're going to run out of electricity for AI.

00:53:51.820 Because AI will require like, I don't know, a thousand times more electricity than we reasonably might have anytime soon.

00:54:01.400 But, as I've been telling you, I'll bet you there will be developments that reduce the amount of electricity you need.

00:54:12.900 And this is one of them.

00:54:14.700 Now, it's not that close to being implemented, but I'll give you a sense of what's possible.

00:54:19.840 So, it's a new fiber-based cooling technology that gives, well, let me start back here.

00:54:29.640 Apparently, 40% of your electrical costs for a data center is cooling it.

00:54:36.920 40% is just keeping it at the right temperature.

00:54:40.360 So, if you could take that 40% and reduce it to 10%, you would save the equivalent of, you know, maybe 300 nuclear power plants.

00:54:54.140 I'm making that up, but it would be a big difference.

00:54:58.380 So, don't be surprised if you see a bunch of breakthroughs that make it easier to run AI on more, you know,

00:55:08.580 more power-sensitive equipment, and you see ways to cool data centers that we never thought of before.

00:55:18.120 So, I think the need for the electricity will be falling faster than we build electricity.

00:55:27.420 So, that's my prediction.

00:55:31.980 Anyway, apparently, also Newsmax is saying that ICE

00:55:37.620 is largely going to pause its raids on farms and hotels and restaurants,

00:55:44.440 and that's because Trump has agreed that in those industries,

00:55:50.180 you've got a lot of people who have just been working for years and years,

00:55:54.480 and they're additive to the economy,

00:55:57.860 and if you got rid of them all at once, you'd be in real trouble.

00:56:01.740 So, I don't know how many of you agree with that,

00:56:07.920 but I will tell you from the real-world perspective,

00:56:13.380 replacing them would be way harder than you think.

00:56:18.920 You know, there's a reason that these industries are filled with,

00:56:24.380 you know, non-documented workers,

00:56:29.220 and it's because it's really hard to fill these jobs

00:56:32.740 with American-born people.

00:56:35.240 And again, if you ask me why,

00:56:38.260 I would say I'm out.

00:56:40.780 I'm out.

00:56:41.840 I do not want to be in the conversation about why that is.

00:56:45.760 It's just true.

00:56:46.960 If you know anybody who works in these industries,

00:56:52.420 anybody who works in the farm, hotel, or restaurant industry,

00:56:56.480 and if they do the hiring,

00:56:58.780 so they're really close to it,

00:57:00.640 ask them if they could staff their enterprise

00:57:03.900 with American-born people if they had to.

00:57:08.500 They couldn't.

00:57:10.140 It wouldn't even be a case of,

00:57:12.440 well, you'd have to train them.

00:57:14.660 They wouldn't even walk in the door.

00:57:17.380 Again, why?

00:57:18.700 I don't know.

00:57:20.020 I don't know why.

00:57:21.920 And, you know, I've thought about it a long time,

00:57:24.960 but I just don't know why.

00:57:28.320 It's just the truth.

00:57:30.200 So I think, you know,

00:57:33.280 Trump will get a lot of pushback for that

00:57:35.380 because there's still a lot of people who say,

00:57:37.940 ship back everybody, no exceptions.

00:57:41.240 And I understand the argument,

00:57:44.120 but there is a real-world...

00:57:46.960 friction that Trump understands.

00:57:50.600 And if you think that that part would be easy,

00:57:54.920 it wouldn't be easy.

00:57:57.480 You might still think it's worth doing,

00:58:00.160 but it would be massively disruptive to those industries. 0.84

00:58:04.200 But, again, you might prefer that.

00:58:07.880 And that, you know, I would understand that.

00:58:11.420 All right, ladies and gentlemen,

00:58:13.120 that's all I've got for now.

00:58:14.140 I'm going to say a few words privately

00:58:19.060 to the local subscribers

00:58:21.340 and the rest of you.

00:58:22.440 Thanks for joining.

00:58:24.680 We'll keep an eye on the news today.

00:58:28.400 See who else is being a victim.

00:58:32.000 There's always some new victims.

00:58:34.120 And I'll see everybody tomorrow,

00:58:37.420 same time, same place, I hope.

00:58:40.420 Come on back tomorrow.

00:58:42.880 All right, locals, private in 30 seconds.

00:59:13.480 Thank you.

00:59:17.780 Thank you.

00:59:20.600 Thank you.

00:59:21.120 Thanks.

00:59:21.240 Thank you.

00:59:51.240 Thank you.

01:00:21.240 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - June 15, 2025

Episode 2869 CWSA 06⧸15⧸25

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