Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2870 CWSA 06⧸16⧸25

00:00:00.000 buddy come on in and it looks like it stocks are up yay probably because the g7 let's uh

00:00:10.400 get the comments working and then we got a show for you

00:00:15.040 looking good

00:00:18.880 good morning everyone and welcome to the highlight of human civilization it's called coffee with

00:00:40.500 scott adams and you've never had a better time but if you'd like to try taking this up to levels that

00:00:48.980 no one can understand with their tiny shiny human brains well all you need for that is a

00:00:57.780 cup or a mug or a glass of tank or shelter a stein a canteen chunk or flask a vessel of any kind filled

00:01:04.500 with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine

00:01:11.300 at the end of the day the thing that makes everything better it's called the simultaneous sip it happens

00:01:17.620 now go

00:01:24.660 sublime

00:01:29.700 just perfect well i wonder is there any science that could have been skipped just by asking me well

00:01:42.260 eric dolan writing for psypost he's my favorite writer lately

00:01:49.780 according to him a single dose of psilocybin

00:01:55.700 can reduce your alcohol consumption if you have an alcohol consumption problem

00:02:02.100 they found that one dose of psilocybin uh caused a long-term reduction pretty big one reduction in

00:02:12.660 drinking now how could they have done that study cheaper well given that every time they have a

00:02:21.940 hypothesis about how it'll improve your mental state or your behavior it works every time

00:02:32.100 when was the last time you saw a psilocybin study where they said oh we tested it on this and it

00:02:41.460 didn't work apparently it works on everything you tested on so i don't know what else it could do but

00:02:50.180 if you would ask me does it reduce your level of drinking i would have said yes save you a little money

00:02:58.740 um correction or update i'm told that uh president trump has offered to pay for the building of the ballroom

00:03:11.700 is that confirmed i haven't seen it but um in the comments people are telling me that he's gonna pay for

00:03:19.860 it himself do we know how much that's gonna cost what's it cost to build a a ballroom on the white

00:03:28.420 house that sounds really expensive i don't know you want to take a guess does anybody know i'm gonna guess

00:03:38.740 um i'm gonna guess 23 million dollars what do you think 23 million just a guess

00:03:51.220 um anyway so uh the no kings rally or protest whatever you want to call it the no kings protest

00:04:04.420 um has been hugely successful because there are no kings um at all and even president trump in a truth

00:04:15.620 social um said that it was successful um said that it was successful because there are no kings uh trying

00:04:22.500 to replace them i think he borrowed my joke but uh it's a good one apparently there were uh over five

00:04:33.700 million people according to the organizers of course now what happens if five million people protest

00:04:42.980 but there's not much violence and the headlines are about a uh a manhunt for a killer and israel and iran are

00:04:55.060 having a war well it's a lot like it didn't happen at all so here's my question has there ever been a

00:05:06.420 a big protest where there was no violence and it changed the policy is that even a thing i feel like

00:05:18.980 even though nobody wants you know violence especially with your protests if you don't have any violence

00:05:26.340 violence or you know breakage or you know mass some kind of disobedience um i feel like that's not enough to

00:05:37.220 change anything otherwise it's just taking a walk so five million people took a walk for a thing that

00:05:45.300 didn't need to be done on a nice day and absolutely nothing is different but they're claiming success

00:05:57.060 so uh one of the mysteries which maybe isn't a mystery at all is uh why why are the attendees at

00:06:05.380 these anti-trump events um almost all senior citizens and i took a crack at answering that

00:06:16.180 by saying that it's easier to scare them you can scare old people easier because they feel more vulnerable

00:06:25.140 and they're also um easier to fool now they also are the main audience for mainstream news

00:06:35.540 can you imagine what your opinion would be if you only watched cnn and msnbc and abc news what would your

00:06:46.900 opinion of trump be well it wouldn't be very positive because you would just think oh it's like walter

00:06:54.980 cronkite he hasn't lied to us yet so i think the fact that you know the senior citizens feel a little

00:07:05.860 more vulnerable on top of that they're easier to to brainwash and the fact that they watch the mainstream

00:07:14.020 media they don't watch x um puts them at a real disadvantage but they also have you know time on

00:07:21.380 their hands so a nice walk on a june day turned out to be what five million people wanted

00:07:29.300 and they were lonely and they didn't have much else going on so did that change anything in the world

00:07:37.940 probably not but did you know that uh alex soros and uh uma abedin they got uh they got married in the

00:07:50.580 hamptons and there were a lot of elite people there the clintons and and others breitbart is writing about

00:07:59.780 this now here's uh my question does that look like the most fake marriage you've ever seen in your life

00:08:10.020 that they just don't look like they're really a couple and she is 49 i think right 49 so i'm guessing

00:08:24.660 that they don't plan to have children and i wonder isn't that a weird kind of a weird problem

00:08:33.060 because normally if you've got billions of dollars you're controlling you won't have some kind of an heir

00:08:40.500 but apparently alex soros does not need an heir so or it looks like it i don't know unless they adopt or

00:08:49.140 something but i'm not going to bet on it because that that wedding looks to be sort of like uh you

00:08:58.660 remember the old days when uh when a royal family would try to marry off their their kid to another royal

00:09:06.740 family it feels like that so we'll we'll keep an eye on that claudia was leaving for her pickleball

00:09:14.820 tournament i've been visualizing my match all week she was so focused on visualizing that she didn't 0.95

00:09:20.180 see the column behind her car on her backhand side good thing claudia is with intact the insurer with 1.00

00:09:26.500 the largest network of auto service centers in the country everything was taken care of under one roof and

00:09:31.620 she was on her way in a rental car in no time i made it to my tournament and lost in the first round 1.00

00:09:37.460 but you got there on time intact insurance your auto service ace certain conditions apply

00:09:44.100 um also according to eric dolan and cy post did you know that people who believe in conspiracies

00:09:52.180 uh tend to overrate their cognitive abilities and they also think that others agree with them

00:10:02.020 so one of the uh the traits

00:10:07.300 of people who believe conspiracies is that they also have a greater degree of a certainty

00:10:15.940 now have you heard me say that the certainty is the only mistake

00:10:22.340 if you're if you're positive about a uh you know some kind of conspiracy theory

00:10:30.020 that should tell you to to check your thinking you might be right but if you're positive

00:10:40.660 well certainty is sort of a signal for believing bullshit all right um karen bass

00:10:50.260 is telling us that uh she went around looking for the marines who are allegedly deployed in la 0.91

00:10:59.620 thanks to trump because of the uh anti-trump protests or the anti-ice protests i guess

00:11:06.900 and uh she said she saw no marines and uh didn't see any trouble so

00:11:15.540 um she she says the local law enforcement has total control which i think they do now

00:11:26.100 um this is another example of uh sort of the uh analogy thinking if you said to yourself oh this is

00:11:36.340 like the uh the protests of the riots of 1992 then you would probably be wrong because it's not like

00:11:46.820 that but whenever you whenever you're influenced by something that you remember such as oh it's like the

00:11:56.420 holocaust or oh it's like this other riot or oh it's like the civil war you're probably way off

00:12:06.020 because there you never have two things they're they're sort of the same oh it's like neville chamberlain

00:12:13.620 saying peace in her time anyway we'll get back to that

00:12:18.020 well apparently um coffee is uh considered to reduce your risk of wanting to take your own life

00:12:31.300 whereas energy drinks will increase your risk of wanting to take your own life and both of them give

00:12:38.500 you energy so if you had to pick i would pick the coffee now how many times have i told you there's a study

00:12:50.340 that says that drinking coffee is good for you and uh silicon is good for you well now put them together

00:13:01.300 and then you've got something all right um and apparently there's a uh a new risk uh called gas

00:13:10.900 station heroin which i've never heard before so you ever go into the uh the little like place you buy

00:13:19.700 stuff at the gas station and you see these little energy shots and they've got some kind of drug in them

00:13:27.700 called uh i didn't write it down but uh apparently these are addictive and they have serious side effects

00:13:38.260 so u.s poison control has been getting a lot of calls about these so watch out if you think you're

00:13:47.460 getting an energy drink from the gas station maybe not maybe not well the uh manhunt has

00:13:57.300 invented for the uh suspect who shot four people two of them uh died and it's uh this is in minnesota

00:14:08.740 vance luther bolter they found him in a crop field and he's the one who impersonated a

00:14:18.020 police officer to get access to his crimes and they got him and it makes me wonder

00:14:25.620 what are the odds of being on the run in 2025 and getting away with it i feel like the hardest

00:14:38.660 thing in the world would be to go on the run so of course i spent some time thinking about how i would do

00:14:46.340 it have any of you thought all right if i were a fugitive from the law what would i do and here's

00:14:58.500 my best idea the best idea is you'd have to have access to a house that was not your own house and

00:15:08.420 that had no tie to you in name so you'd have to get a friend um or an acquaintance to rent a house

00:15:18.900 that wasn't where you live and then you go directly to that house and you just have somebody else who

00:15:26.100 lives there who answers the the door so if anybody knocks you just have your confederate answer the door

00:15:34.100 and say no no i don't have anybody in my attic now i can't think of any other way that you could go on

00:15:44.180 the run and stay on the run for very long because eventually facial recognition would get you or

00:15:52.340 something but uh if you if you're ever out in the run from the law you want to you want to make sure you

00:15:59.300 have a second house that's not in your name that's my advice anyway uh trump by now should be in canada

00:16:10.340 at the g7 and the stock market is up because people are thinking that that will help grease some of the

00:16:21.300 trade deals now you might say to yourself what kind of you know trade negotiations are going to happen

00:16:29.300 in these little side meetings at the g7 and the answer is there might be because it's trump so some of

00:16:39.620 these deals it sounds like they're kind of close you know there might be like one thing they haven't

00:16:45.700 agreed on yet so that's the sort of thing that you could imagine trump saying all right i'll take you

00:16:52.500 from 37 percent tariff down to 25 that's my final offer so maybe it's entirely possible he'll get some

00:17:02.580 deals closer to done or done and the market is reacting so uh according to trump um we have trade deals

00:17:14.820 all we have to do is send a letter and say this is what you're going to have to pay

00:17:19.940 so that would suggest that these things which are negotiable have already been negotiated at least

00:17:27.060 for a number of countries the big ones and that we're just waiting to find out what it is they

00:17:34.020 agreed on so stocks are up um israel is uh tried to debunk a bunch of uh false reports

00:17:45.380 that are coming out about the war remember i warned you that because it's a war situation you can't really

00:17:53.540 believe much of anything you know you you can believe the big stuff like israel really did attack iran 0.96

00:18:04.740 and you could believe that iran really responded you could probably believe that the various generals and

00:18:16.420 and heads of military that they say they killed probably most of them they did kill but once you

00:18:23.860 get down to a lower level of detail you you should get really skeptical you know whether whether you like

00:18:32.420 that news or don't like it you should tell yourself well maybe but you know in the context of war

00:18:41.140 a lot of stuff is fake i'm not going to tell you what things israel is debunking because there wasn't

00:18:48.260 one thing on that list i'd ever heard of so it's not like it's not like it's in the major news or anything

00:18:54.340 but there were a bunch of things that they debunked because it's that kind of situation now um i've been

00:19:02.980 listening to all the various opinions about israel and iran and i remind you if you're new to my podcast

00:19:11.300 that uh if it feels like i'm giving you a moral judgment i'm not um i'm not giving you an ethical or

00:19:21.460 moral judgment on anything that anybody's doing um and i'm not telling you my preference

00:19:29.380 um i'm just observing and in some cases predicting but uh it's not my country and so since i'm america

00:19:39.620 first um i will care about america and make opinions on america but when it comes to israel

00:19:46.660 i will observe and predict and if you see more than that in my comments you might be reading too

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00:20:59.540 so i've been watching the various experts if you can call it that talking about the the odds

00:21:07.140 that iran really was going to break out sometime soon and have a nuclear weapon and the argument against it

00:21:17.940 is that netanyahu has been saying that they're going to have a nuclear weapon at any minute for 40 years

00:21:26.180 now somebody said 30 years and then somebody corrected him said well no it's actually 40 years

00:21:34.740 he's been saying he's been saying the same thing any minute now any year now and sure enough

00:21:41.060 we've been predicting that iran would break out and have that nuclear weapon any minute now now

00:21:49.060 does that tell you that we didn't have to worry no that would be analogy thinking that would be saying that

00:22:00.100 whatever is happening now is the same as what has happened in the past and therefore the past is

00:22:07.460 predictive of what's happening now no obviously they've mastered the whole missile situation so

00:22:17.380 they'd have something to put a nuke on obviously they had enriched the uranium to much closer to

00:22:26.580 the level that you need for a bomb obviously they had lots of nuclear experts some of whom

00:22:35.140 almost certainly would know how to weaponize that stuff so is there anything about the current situation

00:22:42.740 that you could learn from 30 years of essentially being wrong that they're going to break out any

00:22:51.220 minute and the answer is not really you'd have to look at the situation you know completely on its own

00:22:59.700 but if you're looking at the pattern but if you're looking at the pattern i would say that

00:23:05.380 there's a lot of stuff like ai so if you look at ai for example ai has been predicted for 40 years

00:23:14.740 years but now it's actually here so if you would use the last 40 years of predicting ai

00:23:25.060 you would predict that we wouldn't have it but we do and you know maybe you're thinking of fusion

00:23:33.700 because fusion was always the thing that's going to be here in 10 years but never is

00:23:38.820 but it does look like fusion is closer than it's ever been um so there are a number of situations in

00:23:50.340 which you could say the past does predict the future but you never know which one those are

00:23:57.620 so uh i would worry about that now uh general mike flynn says and he would know more than i would

00:24:06.660 know about this situation he says that uh it's a psychotic regime iran and that they were very close to

00:24:16.180 breaking out and with a uranium enriched warhead so in his opinion we were just about there

00:24:28.020 and so here's another one climate change if your model is climate change

00:24:34.900 and you've watched for 40 years as experts say oh any minute the icebergs are all going to melt and

00:24:44.020 you're going to be underwater and then it never happens and then you look at iran you'd say oh it's

00:24:49.780 one of those things where for 40 years we say it's going to happen at any minute but then it never happens at all

00:24:57.060 maybe um how many of you think that iran legitimately

00:25:07.060 knew it would never make a nuclear weapon

00:25:09.780 how many of you think and how many of you are certain like you're positive they never would

00:25:18.500 have made a nuclear weapon because they haven't said that you know the uh ayatollahs have said um

00:25:27.300 you know we have no intention of making a nuclear weapon it would be anti-islamic and blah blah blah 1.00

00:25:33.780 but you can't really trust that so i would say this is one of those situations where certainty

00:25:43.220 is the only mistake um you might be right but if you're certain how could you possibly be certain about

00:25:54.580 that so you have to you have to play the odds based on uncertainty i think well wall street

00:26:04.100 journal is reporting that uh israel has destroyed uh one-third of the iranian missile launchers those

00:26:12.900 would be the um the ones that are attacking israel right now so only one-third of them have been

00:26:20.740 destroyed that would be about 120 of them now does that sound like success to you

00:26:31.540 doesn't sound like success to me and do they have to destroy all of them because i saw some news

00:26:40.500 coverage yesterday um i forget which general it was but one of the military uh experts was saying that

00:26:48.980 israel appeared to stop shooting down the incoming missiles uh was it last night or the night before

00:26:57.380 i think the night before and the speculation was that israel was either for some reason allowing some

00:27:06.500 destruction which i don't think makes sense uh or they were running out of defensive missiles the kind

00:27:14.740 that are the shield you know that shoot down the incoming missiles do you think that's possible

00:27:21.540 do you think that israel is literally running out of defensive missiles and so is the us

00:27:28.100 maybe because you know iran had just hella lots of missiles that's a california term hella but they had

00:27:38.020 hella missiles do you say that in your state they got hella missiles it's sort of a california thing

00:27:48.500 so we don't know about that but i would say that uh if they only got a third of them um

00:27:57.620 that uh that's not exactly a big victory at least on the missile side they may have

00:28:03.060 blown up a lot of the stockpiles though so that part we don't know um and then also wall street journal

00:28:12.740 uh according to the u.n atomic agency chief the uh the iranian nuclear sites are basically intact

00:28:23.140 because the ones we could get to or the ones israel could get to with their weapons um are well

00:28:30.980 fortified so their biggest one out of four now is untouched basically and apparently a number of

00:28:39.140 the other facilities are untouched so if their goal was to dismantle the iranian nuclear facilities

00:28:49.780 that did not happen and it doesn't look like they're close it looks like mostly mostly that stuff is

00:28:57.460 untouched so that's not good um now here's the uh here's the big question i have at what point

00:29:14.260 did israel know that they could not complete the job without the united states being militarily involved

00:29:21.860 because does it bother you that israel may have launched an attack knowing that they could not

00:29:31.540 succeed at getting rid of the nuclear facilities in iran without the us being actively involved in the

00:29:40.100 attack because that would suggest that they were confident or at least hopeful that they could

00:29:52.340 essentially bully or persuade the united states to get militarily involved because they had gotten us a

00:30:00.980 little bit pregnant so does that bother you because israel must have known that they couldn't get to 0.99

00:30:11.540 those nuclear facilities on their own so are they playing us are they are they playing a game where

00:30:22.100 if they get halfway in the united states will say oh you know i wish we were not at this point i wasn't in

00:30:30.980 favor of the attack but now that we're halfway in i guess it would make more sense to you know finish the job

00:30:39.700 because what could be more dangerous what could be more dangerous than destroying much of iran's

00:30:48.980 military and leadership and then leaving intact the most dangerous part of their arsenal

00:30:56.100 wouldn't that be the worst case so and then i asked myself this question why is this situation so

00:31:07.060 movie perfect like what are the odds of that what are the odds that israel requires the united states

00:31:16.660 military to be military to be part of it and we don't want to but on the other hand you know a lot

00:31:24.740 of people see the argument for it and again i'm not giving you my argument these are not my preferences

00:31:31.860 i'm just observing and predicting so what the hell does trump do if he if he gets militarily involved

00:31:44.900 that would be very anti-mega anti-america first but on the other hand can he really leave

00:31:54.580 iran to reconstitute and be a hundred times more angry than they were before and by then have

00:32:03.140 canceled all their agreements not to build nuclear weapons and then wouldn't they make a race to

00:32:10.660 complete at least a few weapons wouldn't that be the most um logical thing for iran to do

00:32:18.580 so how did we get in this situation now it's so movie perfect that there's that little wrinkle

00:32:27.540 that only america can complete the job but we don't want to and then the only thing that's missing from

00:32:34.740 the movie is that the only person who could pilot the plane to blow up fordow is tom cruise

00:32:42.820 only tom cruise can complete this mission doesn't it feel like that like it's just it's just way too

00:32:52.980 movie perfect you know in a bad way not in a good way um so there's that

00:33:02.020 and uh again i ask when did israel know that they couldn't complete the job without us

00:33:08.500 because that bothers me a little bit there is also news that trump um convinced israel not to take out

00:33:21.220 the uh ayatollah the uh the non-military leadership now do you believe that remember we're we're in the

00:33:31.140 context of you know war and all the all the reporting in the war is questionable at best

00:33:38.820 do you think that israel was going to take out the supreme leader and trump talked about it it's

00:33:47.140 believable it's believable i don't know if it's true but uh and then uh brett bear asked netanyahu on

00:33:57.220 an interview he said do you have intel that the assassination attempts on trump were directly

00:34:03.780 were directed from iran and netanyahu says through proxies yes um through their intel yes they want

00:34:14.100 to kill him look he's enemy number one and they said that they tried to kill him as well enemy number two

00:34:22.580 so do you believe that do you believe that uh iran tried to kill trump twice

00:34:31.220 and that trump when he got a chance to kill them back uh canceled it maybe maybe um

00:34:41.780 i'm gonna i'm gonna i'm gonna say that's just a maybe i'm not automatically gonna believe all of

00:34:52.500 that um the the part i believe the least is that iran tried to kill trump that part

00:35:00.180 that's a tough one maybe but it's it doesn't feel like that would have been in iran's best interest

00:35:09.620 so anyway um the israel situation is dividing america as you might imagine but in terms of the

00:35:22.820 elected officials it seems to be tougher on the democrats because the democrats have people who are

00:35:30.980 all in on uh whatever it is that israel wants militarily we should do it and then there are other

00:35:38.340 democrats who are you know very anti-war and uh i think it would be a big mistake to get involved

00:35:46.100 militarily so the democrat leadership we're not talking about the voters just the leadership

00:35:52.820 are divided whereas the republicans are um seemingly less divided

00:36:02.100 but um and that would mean that the republicans are more in favor of uh military support for israel

00:36:12.740 but um the magia supporters from uh i think charlie kirk and maybe uh steve bannon and lots of others

00:36:24.020 are uh and uh marjorie taylor green so there are a number of very prominent

00:36:30.980 pro-trump people who are saying absolutely not no way do not get involved you know further than we are

00:36:39.140 the only involvement now is probably intelligence and helping israel shoot down and incoming 0.52

00:36:46.500 but uh getting more involved than that would be a big divider in the world of the you know america first mega

00:36:56.180 world um medi hassan who you know him from i think he got released from msnbc but he's a very lefty

00:37:08.900 lefty kind of guy he said in a uh ex post he said to say i'm no fan of tucker carlson is an understatement

00:37:17.860 i loathe much of what he stands for and says but if he helps persuade trump to keep the us out of a

00:37:25.700 full-on war with iran then we'll owe him a great deal of gratitude it kills me to write this but it's

00:37:31.620 true so tucker um is also one of the ones who doesn't want to get us more involved and let me

00:37:40.180 let me read uh tucker carlson's opinion

00:37:42.820 and i'm going to call it a half opinion because i don't think he his opinion covers the whole

00:37:52.580 situation but he says the real divide isn't between people who support israel and people

00:37:58.340 who support iran or the palestinians the real divide is between those who casually encourage

00:38:04.820 violence and those who seek to prevent it between warmongers and peacemakers who are the warmongers

00:38:13.140 they would include anyone who's calling uh donald trump today to demand airstrikes and other direct

00:38:18.740 u.s military involvement on that list according to tucker would be sean hannity mark levin ruper

00:38:27.460 murdoch ike perlmutter whoever that is and miriam adelson at some point they will all have to answer

00:38:36.180 for this but you should know their names now now here's my here's why i call it a half opinion

00:38:47.300 i think if you have an opinion on this that you need to be able to draw out what it looks like in both

00:38:54.900 directions so if you said um i don't want us to get into a you know a deeper military

00:39:03.780 problem with iran that totally makes sense if all you're looking at is the cost so it would cost us

00:39:12.500 a bunch of money we would probably lose a bunch of lives uh we would have all kinds of you know

00:39:19.620 unknowns in terms of terrorism coming our way etc so for the half of the opinion

00:39:28.980 that tucker expresses is completely accurate that if we get involved there's a gigantic risk and it's

00:39:37.700 going to be expensive and all kinds of problems but doesn't he also have an obligation to

00:39:46.900 draw out what the alternative would look like that would be the other half of the opinion and the

00:39:53.620 alternative is that you you uh let's just say injure iran deeply everything from their ego to taking out

00:40:06.500 their a lot of their leadership um you destroy a whole bunch of stuff uh you humiliate them and then you

00:40:15.380 let them reconstitute and then they just build back what they had are you better off or are they far

00:40:24.500 more likely to use you know the many more missiles that they make than they have now and there would be

00:40:32.420 better ones probably and would they more likely race to complete their nuclear weapon and if they

00:40:40.660 completed it what are the odds they would use it um and what are the odds they would simply use it to

00:40:48.420 make an umbrella to protect their proxies in other words their proxies might still do all the work

00:40:56.020 you know once those are reconstituted as well but uh you wouldn't want to attack the homeland

00:41:02.980 because then they'd have a nuke so does tucker carlson's opinion cover both sides of the risk

00:41:12.820 i would say no it doesn't mean he's wrong so remember i'm not i'm not taking a side i'm just observing and

00:41:22.100 predicting so what's wrong with this opinion is that it acts like one side is free

00:41:28.420 that if you get militarily involved that's going to be very expensive in treasure and lives and it would

00:41:36.820 be but if you if you don't do those things then it's just sort of free is it is that a adult complete

00:41:49.860 reasonable opinion that if you let iran reconstitute from this point having taken as much you know

00:41:58.900 abuse as they have are you going to be in better shape i don't know marjorie taylor green also uh is

00:42:09.220 very anti-war and uh she says we're fighting with the real american first people are um and she thinks

00:42:18.820 we're a bunch of fakes the fakes would be the ones who are calling for war 0.99

00:42:24.980 and i would ask um barjorie taylor green the following question the same question which is

00:42:32.900 what does it look like if we don't go to war now again if you're new to me it sounds like i'm in

00:42:41.140 favor of war i'm not i'm asking the most reasonable question you could ask which is what happens if you

00:42:49.140 do it and also what happens if you don't do it so you need to be able to gain both the sound into the

00:42:56.500 future i would say if we do it it's going to be a huge mess like we'll probably come under more attack

00:43:05.540 it'll be very expensive uh we'll think we got all of their facilities but we won't um we'll never know

00:43:13.860 when we're done uh it will kick off a round of their attacks on us and then we'll have to attack

00:43:20.180 them back and then we'll be running out of weapons and who knows yeah it'll it'll drain our treasury more

00:43:28.420 so certainly being militarily uh involved more than we are is going to be really expensive

00:43:37.940 in all the ways we don't want it to be but what happens if we don't what happens if we don't if

00:43:46.500 you can't if you can't game that out and say all right here's my opinion um and i'm not saying this

00:43:54.500 is my opinion i'm just saying this is what one might say you might say well it's been 40 years

00:44:02.260 and they haven't you know broken out with their nuclear weapons so if they say they're not going

00:44:07.780 to do it maybe we should just trust them do you feel comfortable with that to just trust them if they

00:44:17.380 say no no seriously we're not gonna because it seems to me that all that uh that refining of the

00:44:24.660 fuel why would they need to do that unless they were planning to get as close as possible to break

00:44:31.700 out you know it seems to me that iran was acting exactly like a country that wanted to break out or at

00:44:40.100 least have the ability to break out whenever they wanted to so if they go back to where they were

00:44:48.740 aren't they going to try even harder to break out sooner i don't know

00:44:57.620 but um beware of half minions when i found out my friend got a great deal on a wool coat from winners

00:45:05.460 i started wondering is every fabulous item i see from winners like that woman over there with the 1.00

00:45:11.780 designer jeans are those from winners ooh are those beautiful gold earrings did she pay full price or 0.83

00:45:18.340 that leather tote or that cashmere sweater or those knee-high boots that dress that jacket those shoes is

00:45:24.740 anyone paying full price for anything stop wondering start winning winners find fabulous for less so as i was

00:45:33.140 saying before that how you feel about the iran situation probably has a lot to do with which analogy

00:45:42.740 is running your brain because we're not really good at thinking things through from you know first

00:45:50.020 principles and you know if this happens that would happen if this happens that would happen we tend to

00:45:56.500 snap the grid meaning if there's some some um historical example that it reminds you of you're going to

00:46:06.980 automatically think that it will turn out the same way so if your model is neville chamberlain saying that

00:46:16.340 he's got to deal with hillr only to find out that hillr didn't mean it and there was no peace in our time

00:46:24.100 then you would say oh we better get involved in helping israel because we don't want to be like neville 1.00

00:46:31.220 chamberlain who just you know naively expected the evil the evil other side to you know want peace or if

00:46:42.340 you're thinking about the holocaust if that's your primary model that's running in your brain and i would

00:46:49.220 imagine that for a lot of the jewish americans and israeli jews that would be primary thing running

00:46:58.100 through their mind then you look at the the iranian um leadership saying they want to exterminate israel

00:47:07.540 and you say to yourself well that reminds me of the holocaust so

00:47:14.500 never again and you know netanyahu said that directly he said this this is never again

00:47:22.820 so if your analogy that's running in your head is holocaust then you probably are in favor of direct u.s

00:47:31.060 military intervention when in theory it would be the easiest to do now than it will ever be

00:47:39.220 but suppose you're thinking of libya or iraq uh two countries that got destroyed

00:47:47.620 and maybe there wasn't a good reason for either one of them being destroyed

00:47:51.860 then you would say to yourself my god we cannot be involved with

00:47:55.060 you know destroying yet another country um just because our military industrial complex wants to

00:48:03.620 sell more weapons so if that's the analogy that's running around your head

00:48:09.060 then you're thinking well maybe maybe not get more involved but you you see my point right

00:48:18.340 you don't see a lot of people saying let's reason this through in in all the paths

00:48:24.740 all right if we take this path the most likely outcome is this and then that would lead to this

00:48:30.580 and that will lead to that no mostly we just snap the grid and say all right i think more about the

00:48:39.060 holocaust than i think about neville chamberlain and and then that's your that's what you think is your

00:48:45.940 opinion and that if we have a certainty about it well that's a real signal that you're not doing it right

00:48:53.220 right we we should be looking at it as you know a risk reward with a certain percentage risk

00:49:02.660 in either direction so certainty is a bad sign

00:49:10.020 um in other news uh apparently uh trump has said that he wants to expand the uh deportations into

00:49:20.740 um the power centers of the democrats the power centers being uh la chicago and new york

00:49:31.940 and i think trump is saying directly now that because so many immigrants were brought in

00:49:40.260 to maybe increase the political base of the democrats that he wants to go after that political base that

00:49:47.700 they're building and uh get rid of it or decrease it as much as possible so a lot of republicans and i

00:49:57.140 guess now that includes trump believe that the democrats were mostly in favor of bringing in new voters

00:50:05.540 and if not new voters then at least new residents that get picked up by the census and then it determines

00:50:13.140 how many how many how many representatives you were uh stay against so trump seems to be

00:50:20.900 deciding to directly go against that and try to ship back as many people as possible from the places where

00:50:30.180 it would make a difference to representation now where does worst first

00:50:36.580 come in this it seems to me that trump is now abandoning the get rid of the worst first and he's going after

00:50:48.260 get rid of the most people you can because i think steven miller wanted to get up to 3 000 a day

00:50:57.060 i think we're closer to a thousand a day so to get from a thousand a day or whatever it is it might be

00:51:04.980 hundreds to three thousand you're not really going to be able to do that with the worst first because

00:51:12.180 you're not going to be able to you know process that many criminals or at least you know yeah here's

00:51:19.220 where i have to stop and say oh yes i know they're all criminals because they came in illegally but you know 0.95

00:51:26.740 exactly what i mean so don't be an npc and say but scott but scott they're all criminals they're all criminals

00:51:34.020 scott we all know that everybody in the conversation knows that they're technically criminals because

00:51:44.580 they came into the country illegally but you also know that whenever we talk about the criminal versions

00:51:52.020 of them we're talking about extra you know extra crimes on top of that so you know don't be an npc

00:51:59.700 you don't need to remind me that they're all criminals technically we got it we got it anyway so

00:52:09.540 um it looks like trump thinks he has the political support to go deeper and uh we'll see i i hope it doesn't

00:52:22.260 get uh i hope there are not any uh let's say unintended consequences that come out of that but we'll see

00:52:33.380 according to uh a post i saw by wall street apes on x the uh los angeles mall which would be a high-end

00:52:43.380 mall yeah with jewelry shops and nice places like that is totally boarded up

00:52:48.980 every every every store in the mall the the windows are covered with boards now i assume that's mostly

00:52:58.020 because of the recent protests but it makes you wonder if they're going to keep that up

00:53:04.500 i feel like the whole idea of shopping in person at your local store is if it's not already dead

00:53:13.300 it's kind of on the way to being dead because the looters are not going to leave stores alone i mean

00:53:23.940 apparently looting is pretty popular so given that you can buy almost anything through the mail

00:53:32.260 and the fact that you're not going to want to go to a store that's boarded up even if it's open

00:53:37.060 you know it's going to be creepy to go to a store that's boarded up all the windows um it feels like

00:53:45.140 in-person shopping is just on the verge of being extinct you know maybe for stuff like you know

00:53:53.860 target or something that might remain but it's hard for me to see an upscale store

00:54:00.660 there's stuff that's stuff that's easy to loot and steal like jewelry it's hard to hard for me to

00:54:07.140 imagine there will still be jewelry stores and malls in five years i don't know just seems unlikely

00:54:17.220 well uh lindsey graham is in favor of uh more sanctions on russia he thinks that'll make a difference

00:54:25.780 um he says if they don't have a breakthrough soon in negotiations they'll put these gnarly sanctions

00:54:36.180 on russia and that those will easily move through the senate and the house i don't know about that what

00:54:43.140 do you think i i'm having trouble believing that there are sanctions we could have put on russia

00:54:52.500 that would make a difference that would make a difference that we haven't used is anybody even

00:54:58.020 clear what that would be like some of it is against the oligarchs but that never moves the needle

00:55:06.020 um and some of it would be i guess against our allies who are buying fuel from russia

00:55:13.300 so we'd basically be sanctioning our own allies wouldn't we um so i don't even know what that those

00:55:22.500 sanctions look like but apparently lindsey graham is aware of some unused sanctions 1.00

00:55:30.020 i i wouldn't uh make a big bet that that's gonna work out well according to ex-user nick cruz patain who

00:55:41.780 talks about tesla stuff he says the grok integration is going to be coming to the tesla ui soon it could

00:55:51.620 be a game changer and to me that does seem like a game changer because it's one thing to get into

00:56:01.380 your self-driving car and have to you know program it on your screen it's another thing to get into your

00:56:08.100 car and say um take me home or get into your car and say take me to the grocery store and you don't

00:56:18.180 even know where it is but it says which one the one that's close and you go yeah that's the one imagine

00:56:24.980 talking to your car oh according to the leading report a million illegals have self-deported under

00:56:33.620 trump i don't know if that's true how would we know um i guess if they self-deported through the

00:56:43.300 process that christy gnome is promoting where you use the the app on your phone to self-deport

00:56:51.220 maybe maybe maybe a million have have left maybe anyway the tesla with ai that you could talk to the

00:57:00.580 entire time that would be amazing i mean that would be such a different experience just you know as long

00:57:08.820 as no one else is in the car it's probably no good if someone else is in the car but if someone else if

00:57:16.500 no one else is in the car you could tell your you could tell your uh car to give you a tour of a historic

00:57:24.420 area and then the ai could describe the historic area as you drive through i mean how cool would that

00:57:32.100 be very cool and you could tell it was stuff like all right uh i like to eat lunch around 11 30 so we're

00:57:42.260 going to go here um so plan me a lunch and make me a lunch reservation um and make sure there's a place

00:57:50.820 i can charge my car and you know then you're having some fun all right um i think this is real

00:58:01.700 that trump has announced plans to launch a wireless brand trump mobile so there will be a trump phone

00:58:12.180 and i don't know if they'll make a phone but a trump mobile phone service now i always wondered

00:58:20.820 because there are a number of uh uh what we call it second tier mobile phone uh providers who don't

00:58:30.260 own a network and somehow they i guess they rent time on the existing networks but they offer their own

00:58:38.900 phone service is it mint is that one of them and i don't know exactly how those work but i assume

00:58:47.380 that uh trump mobile if it's real um would use facilities that are already built i doubt i doubt he'd be

00:58:58.020 building out his own network but maybe it seems unlikely uh it's the wholesale side of telecom yeah

00:59:08.180 so so that's a interesting idea all right uh apparently 0.84

00:59:17.460 the chinese companies that are trying to get access to our good ai chips uh are finding it moronically easy 0.99

00:59:26.980 to do so our best ai chips um are banned from china so the ai people in china can't just you know buy some

00:59:39.780 chips and then use it locally but what they can do and apparently what they are doing is they they

00:59:46.980 buy a um a data center in malaysia where it's legal to have all the chips you want and then they bring

00:59:55.540 uh a suitcase full of uh hard drives and they do all their work they train their ai on this data center

01:00:04.900 with the good chips in malaysia and then when it's trained to the new version they load up all their uh

01:00:12.340 their drives in their suitcase and they take the model that's now trained back to china

01:00:19.940 so apparently the workaround is moronically easy to do and is in full in full swing so if you thought we

01:00:30.740 were uh slowing down china by denying them chips well you know we may have slowed them down by a week

01:00:40.580 because you have to travel back and forth with your suitcase full of hard drives but we didn't

01:00:47.060 really slow them down they figured out how to get their data centers in malaysia and other places i

01:00:53.060 guess um speaking of ai the guardian reports that thousands of uk university students have been caught

01:01:03.860 cheating using ai are you surprised no so here again i i credit the uh there's some american uh college

01:01:16.740 i forget which one that is gonna say ai is great use ai for all of your work and knowing how to use ai is

01:01:26.020 important so just use it for all your classes i think this is a smarter model um but we'll see

01:01:36.260 but certainly it's going to be a gigantic problem of people cheating using uh using ai all right ladies

01:01:44.420 and gentlemen that's all i got for you today i'm going to say a few words privately to the local

01:01:52.580 subscribers and the rest of you i hope you enjoyed it and you'll come back tomorrow same time same place

01:01:59.700 we'll be here i'll be here so you be here we can sip again all right locals coming at you in 30 seconds

01:02:08.660 privately the rest of you have a great day

01:02:38.660 and jessica

01:02:46.340 talk

01:02:47.460 talk

01:02:48.500 talk

01:02:49.540 talk

01:02:50.340 talk

01:02:51.220 talk

01:02:51.380 talk

01:02:57.860 talk

01:03:06.340 talk

01:03:08.660 Thank you.

01:03:38.660 Thank you.

01:04:08.660 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - June 16, 2025

Episode 2870 CWSA 06⧸16⧸25

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