Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2871 CWSA 06⧸17⧸25

00:00:00.000 not looking so good so forget about that let's do a show don't think about your stocks no don't

00:00:30.000 good morning everyone and welcome to the highlight of human civilization it's called

00:00:36.200 coffee with scott adams and you've never had a better time but for those of you who would like

00:00:44.620 to take this experience up to levels that no one can understand with their tiny shiny human brains

00:00:52.100 all you need for that is a cup or mug or a glass a tanker chalice or stein a canteen jug or flask

00:00:59.540 the best little a kind fill it with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the

00:01:06.020 unparalleled pleasure the dopamine of the day the thing that makes everything better

00:01:11.280 it's called the simultaneous sip it happens now go

00:01:16.720 sublime so good well i need a fact check on this i saw online somebody was printing what was

00:01:36.880 allegedly elon musk's medical report showing that he had no drug use is that real does anybody know

00:01:47.420 if that's real because it wasn't on his account it was somebody else's account i don't know but

00:01:54.360 we'll uh we'll put a pin in that i don't know if that's real

00:01:58.480 well according to live science uh there's now an ev battery thanks to the brits that can recharge in

00:02:10.180 18 seconds and apparently it's been approved for mass production so it's actually coming it doesn't say

00:02:19.700 i don't know what kind of uh you know distance you get but imagine fully recharging your battery

00:02:27.300 in 18 seconds that's current technology i'll tell you this this battery stuff is going to change everything

00:02:37.380 in other power news uh obviously we'll talk about israel and iran in a moment but uh trump uh fired

00:02:49.000 biden's nuclear regulator i guess there was a nuclear regulator according to the daily colored news

00:02:56.500 foundation and uh trump got rid of them so uh apparently that one person might have been slowing down

00:03:05.760 approvals that's just my guess but uh trump is very serious about making nuclear power work

00:03:14.180 so uh i don't know how many regulations he has to get rid of or how many people he has to fire

00:03:22.100 but there does seem to be some some will and ability to do both so nuclear it's coming

00:03:31.580 here's a problem we wish we had all right if you think of all the problems that the united states has or

00:03:42.580 whatever country you're in um apparently over in spain portugal and italy there are major protests

00:03:50.920 against over tourism over tourism now i get it because you don't want too much traffic and

00:04:00.440 you know interferes with your life you know interferes with your life but

00:04:03.860 i wouldn't mind living in a country where your biggest problem is too many people want to visit

00:04:11.260 because it's so nice that'd be a good problem so uh italy portugal and spain i feel your pain

00:04:21.480 but not very much you've got you've got a pretty good problem there all right let's talk about trump

00:04:30.640 and iran all right today's goal is i'm going to teach you how hypnotists um analyze people's speech

00:04:41.440 so i'm going to talk about all the things that trump has said and done and signaled and then we're

00:04:49.420 going to figure out what comes next because prediction is the closest you can get to reality

00:04:58.180 if you're good at it all right so here are the things we know we know that trump left early from

00:05:06.360 the g7 some people are saying it was an excuse to get out of some awkward meetings at the g7

00:05:15.480 but i don't think that trump would do that so my guess is that the reason he left is exactly what

00:05:24.940 they said it was which is uh there's something that's going to go down in iran and it's big

00:05:32.040 and he needed to be fully engaged in that so that's your first hint second hint um trump said

00:05:41.980 the other day to evacuate tehran now is tehran where the fordow nuclear facility is no um how many of the

00:05:56.980 nuclear facilities are in tehran well i don't know but it's not gonna whatever happens in tehran

00:06:05.820 would not directly destroy the nuclear capacity of iran so what is it that would be happening in

00:06:15.420 tehran hmm all right that's your second clue so one clue trump left early got all of those people

00:06:25.980 together in the situation room something big is going down and something about tehran

00:06:32.960 um and when asked why he was calling for the evacuation of tehran he gave his uh his usual

00:06:44.160 trumpian answer uh he wants people to be safe well obviously um trump is filled in on some plans

00:06:55.280 um um according to uh macron of france and uh trump says this is not true um according to uh macron of

00:07:21.120 france and uh trump says this is not true um macron said that uh trump left the g7 to work on a ceasefire

00:07:31.920 agreement a ceasefire but trump uh called out macron and said he doesn't want a ceasefire he's he's going

00:07:42.880 for something much bigger now what would be bigger than a ceasefire well um he says over and over again

00:07:53.280 iran can't have a nuclear weapon so here are the things we know something big is going to happen

00:08:02.400 fairly soon it involves tehran or tehran am i saying it right um which would only indirectly

00:08:14.480 be about the nuclear program because it's not really it's not like all in tehran and it's not about a

00:08:22.880 ceasefire which you'd expect if he planned to have negotiations um a reporter asked trump on the plane

00:08:34.320 what are you looking for here and trump said an end a real end not a ceasefire an end

00:08:42.880 an end an end an end to what an end to the regime an end to the danger an end to the nuclear program

00:08:58.560 well an end um and we know that trump has now taken a opposite position from tulsi gabbard who had

00:09:08.640 recently said that uh according to the cia that iran was not that close to a nuclear weapon but uh trump

00:09:19.680 has adopted the netanyahu messaging that uh iran was very close very close so that's a difference um and

00:09:32.560 then trump said about iran who apparently iran has been trying to contact the united states via other

00:09:40.720 indirect um channels and wants to talk but trump says they'd like to talk but they should have done that

00:09:50.320 before so is trump saying very clearly that something's going to happen and it's going to happen

00:10:00.560 with or without talking because the talking is too late looks like it so there's something going to happen

00:10:09.600 and it looks like iran's apparent willingness to talk

00:10:16.720 is not going to affect trump too much um and then trump said uh that if there's any injury to our troops

00:10:28.000 will come down so hard if they do anything to our people i think they know not to touch our troops

00:10:35.760 now as you know there have been uh lots of wars that were started with fake provocations

00:10:45.520 so now that trump has laid down this red line and said if you do anything to our troops

00:10:51.600 then we would get involved in the war is that a trick because we can always claim

00:11:00.720 that they did something that endangered our troops doesn't it feel like there's enough fuzziness there

00:11:08.560 that we could say oh this one missile came really close to this embassy or something

00:11:15.520 so we're starting to put it all together but there's more um according to axios

00:11:30.800 that according to axios having a meeting with the iranians would be a make or break moment

00:11:37.600 for whether the us will join the war against iran so axios is suggesting there might be some kind of a

00:11:45.840 meeting but if iran doesn't give up everything as in its nuclear program um then that would be the

00:11:55.200 go time for the us to join the war now that's axios do you think axios knows

00:12:03.760 that trump has planned to join the war in a way that would you know pretty much require iran to

00:12:13.840 attack american interests i don't know um

00:12:21.200 and uh what else trump sees uh the bunker buster decision as an inflection point

00:12:28.960 so trump is still considering the question of providing bunker busters according to axios we

00:12:36.960 don't know if that's true and uh apparently trump has asked vp vance and the middle east envoy to

00:12:45.520 offer to meet with the iranians next week for the new york times so do you think the offers to meet and

00:12:54.560 to talk are real because he already said you better evacuate to ron because it sounds like something's

00:13:03.920 going to happen with or without those conversations and he's not going to wait till next week because

00:13:11.280 remember israel wanted to be done in two weeks so they're not going to say hey how about next week

00:13:17.600 we have a meeting i don't think that will change much action well bill o'reilly said that uh earlier

00:13:27.680 today he had texted with trump and he says trump doesn't want to use american air power at this

00:13:34.400 point and that would be the bunker busters um because that would cause some problems with china and putin

00:13:41.120 would it and he'd rather have the iranians surrender which he believes they will surrender huh now

00:13:49.120 surrender is not a word that i've heard before in this context um so here's a reframe it seems like

00:13:59.600 trump is reframing it so that iran gets to decide if the u.s enters the war

00:14:05.920 um which might not be a big change to anybody's thinking but it does kind of put iran in the

00:14:16.240 decision-making seat um so the current decision is the u.s is not in the war or at least in in the

00:14:25.600 most aggressive way that it could be and now the decision kind of comes down to iran if they don't

00:14:33.200 give up their nuclear program like right away um it looks like trump is willing at least in terms

00:14:41.680 of the messaging we don't know what he's thinking but in terms of messaging he would be willing to

00:14:48.880 enter all right so what would make iran surrender that hasn't happened already so if you put it all

00:14:58.240 together here's my prediction um i don't think trump wants to use the bunker busters because that would

00:15:06.640 look like we entered the war and you know that would be bad for his base he would lose support in the

00:15:12.320 u.s etc but it does seem that trump is willing to um let's say i don't want to say allow but not stop

00:15:24.960 israel from doing what israel wants to do so how could israel um dismantle the iranian nuclear program

00:15:37.440 if they do not have access to the bunker buster bombs and i can only think of one way and i think

00:15:45.920 this is the hypnotist technique this is the hypnotist technique that the word that tells me what's

00:15:53.440 happening is surrender so my guess is israel is getting ready to pound tehran and take out each pillar 0.99

00:16:04.960 of the government's power until there's nothing left and i think that might work

00:16:14.640 because if he wants the administration to surrender he's going to have to put pressure on him that's

00:16:21.600 different from just bombing some things and then waiting to see what happens so um my guess

00:16:30.480 and this is just my speculation at this point my prediction is that the land is not to do bunker

00:16:37.520 busters but it's to get the iranian regime to surrender now would the current regime surrender not likely

00:16:52.480 not likely at all so how could israel get a surrender if the current regime is unwilling to surrender

00:17:01.600 well i would call it the chewing from below decapitation strike if they go right to decapitation and they take

00:17:14.080 out the leadership with the next set of bombs that's going to look too aggressive and might set a precedent

00:17:23.600 but what israel's been doing so far is getting rid of all the lower level 0.98

00:17:32.320 people all while the top level people in the military but in terms of the um domestic

00:17:38.880 non-military leadership i think they're just going to start chewing them up from the bottom up

00:17:44.480 so you'll get rid of you know an institution you'll get rid of a you know a minor leader another minor

00:17:53.040 leader another minor leader and you just start working your way up to the top because apparently

00:17:58.640 they know where everybody is somehow and they know how to kill them all because they've they've

00:18:04.560 assassinated a tremendous number of leaders

00:18:07.360 so my guess is that tehran will become sort of a killing field for iranian leadership but it will

00:18:19.200 start at the bottom of what they can get to and they'll just start slowly working their way up until

00:18:27.840 either the top people are overthrown which might happen but i wouldn't bet on it or the top people

00:18:34.880 say all right we're out we surrender um we're going to give up all of our nuclear weapons well nuclear

00:18:43.040 facilities not weapons and so i would argue that there's exactly one path if you rule out the bunker

00:18:53.360 busters which i think would be bad idea for trump to use the bunker busters but you you don't rule out

00:19:01.920 that under all conditions israel will get rid of the nuclear threat which i think is the case 0.75

00:19:10.800 what's that leave all it leaves is decapitation but like i said starting from the top

00:19:20.240 would be too big of a shock to the system i think we'll start chewing them up from the bottom up

00:19:26.800 so you should see strategic hits in tehran against you know government sources of power

00:19:36.720 and it will just keep going and there will be no end to it and the entire time trump will say

00:19:43.760 you know you should have negotiated but if at any time the iranian leadership says all right all right

00:19:53.840 we agree in advance before we even sit down that we will dismantle our entire nuclear program

00:20:00.720 at that point maybe the bombs will stop maybe but i'm not even sure if it's real would trust them

00:20:09.120 to you know it would just look like they're it's a delay tactic so that's my uh

00:20:14.880 that's my prediction a chew them up from the bottom decapitation sort of a slow decapitation

00:20:24.000 until they get a surrender what else could it be that's that's all that's left claudia was leaving 0.99

00:20:31.920 for her pickleball tournament i've been visualizing my match all week she was so focused on visualizing

00:20:37.520 that she didn't see the column behind her car on her backhand side good thing claudia's with intact 1.00

00:20:43.680 the insurer with the largest network of auto service centers in the country everything was

00:20:48.000 taken care of under one roof and she was on her way in a rental car in no time i made it to my 0.93

00:20:52.800 tournament and lost in the first round but you got there on time intact insurance your auto service ace

00:20:59.760 certain conditions apply apparently according to uh some news uh iran has been urgently signaling

00:21:09.120 that they want an end to the hostilities of course they do um but probably we assume they're just

00:21:17.360 stalling that's what israel would say and i think they're probably right based on the history

00:21:24.480 so um yeah so that's what's gonna happen um according to uh a retired colonel lieutenant colonel on fox news

00:21:39.760 uh the iranian missiles are overwhelming the u.s defense systems you know our iron dome and it looks like

00:21:48.640 there's a uh the iranians have a strategy this seems to be pretty good which is a launchable bunch

00:21:57.040 of missiles at the same time and some of them are the good kind and some of them are the cheap kind

00:22:03.200 but the uh the defensive systems get kind of overwhelmed and then the good kind can sneak through

00:22:10.560 so the question would be will iran continue going as hard as they can

00:22:17.760 with as many missiles as they can shoot until they run out which would be pretty devastating

00:22:26.000 uh or do they have to save them because they might be running low well we don't know it's

00:22:32.560 fog of war and it's hard to know what's true but uh i would guess that the more

00:22:39.440 the more the more the iranians send missiles into israel the more damage israel can do to tehran 0.98

00:22:47.520 and to their leadership with something that looks like justification

00:22:52.240 so iran doesn't have too many good options here all right so that's enough on that

00:23:00.960 um the minnesota shooter as you know got caught but if you don't mind i'm not really going to talk

00:23:09.200 about that minnesota shooter guy because that looks like crazy guy um it does look like he might have

00:23:16.720 been a little bit more right leaning than left but he had a long list of people he wanted to get to and

00:23:22.640 they weren't all democrats and you know so to me that's just crazy guy and that's that's the whole story

00:23:30.640 there all right but as you know the uh pro-trump um what would you call it the pro-trump supporters

00:23:41.360 are having a uh tough time because the the anti-war people and the let's go get them people

00:23:49.600 on different sides so among the uh no war no way would be steve bannon he would be the most prominent

00:23:58.880 one doesn't want to war with iran tucker carlson who's going hard at markle event he's got a real

00:24:09.280 problem with markle event on fox news i guess markle event is more pro-war mac gates wants to avoid

00:24:20.160 further war with iran marjorie taylor green um and then of course thomas massey you would not be

00:24:27.200 surprised once a resolution to require congress to approve the war and he's already got three democrats

00:24:34.640 to sign up bernie roqana and aoc so whatever trump does is either going to make um one half of his

00:24:47.760 coalition hate him or the other half hate him because his two choices are get involved in the war

00:24:56.400 and then he loses you know half of his support or don't get involved in the war

00:25:02.560 and then he loses half of his support so if you're trump how do you play that well that goes back to

00:25:11.040 my prediction if he if he simply says all we're doing is um you know maybe helping helping israel avoid

00:25:20.560 some missiles but israel goes wild in tehran and just keeps murdering um and assassinating leaders 0.94

00:25:29.520 i feel like in the end that might be enough to keep his coalition together because it would not be the

00:25:39.520 united states jumping into the war but also it would not be avoiding the war it would be allowing uh

00:25:49.040 i keep saying allowing as if as if they work for us but they don't it would be let's say he's standing

00:25:58.000 back while israel does what israel thinks it needs to do so i feel like the only way he can wiggle out of 0.87

00:26:07.040 this you know there's there's there's no way to win is by letting israel carry the entire load 1.00

00:26:15.120 and just sort of you know being a let's say a bad cop somebody said uh you know is israel being the

00:26:25.200 the bad cop and trump is a good cop kind of kind of trump trump is still the one who's saying you know

00:26:33.040 you just have to negotiate and you just have to surrender and then everything's fine so there's

00:26:40.160 a little bit of a good cop bad cop thing going on which might be productive so here's my question for

00:26:48.240 you if uh if trump managed to pull this off and pulling it off would be stepping back while israel does

00:26:58.960 what it needs to do and there's no bunker buster but they get um iran to say look we'll we'll unlock

00:27:07.040 fordow and we'll let you watch while we dismantle it would that be enough to keep trump's

00:27:16.960 coalition together i think it would be because it would look like we got away with

00:27:24.960 um something we wanted strategically but we would get away with it on the cheap

00:27:32.560 so i feel like there's only one path and it's through the leadership of the iranian people

00:27:41.520 and i don't see any other path all right um i i just want to give a compliment to comic dave smith

00:27:52.320 um one of the things that's fascinating about this whole podcasting world is that some people have

00:28:03.120 made a name for themselves and become you know they became relevant in these top level conversations

00:28:10.400 simply by force of will i guess so why would we listen to comic dave smith's opinion about geopolitical

00:28:22.320 uh stuff uh stuff and the answer is it doesn't make sense on the surface but he did such a good job

00:28:32.560 comic david smith did of inserting himself in the conversation and debating people who wanted to

00:28:39.120 debate and you know making his his views known that he is actually relevant um and i have to admit

00:28:47.600 i'm very impressed with that um he's not the only one i mean a number of podcasters and i'm one of

00:28:54.640 them have through just hard work and showing up every day and you know trying to add something to the

00:29:03.040 process have made themselves um not the most important thing in the conversation but relevant

00:29:11.760 relevant relevant and i was wondering are there more humorous they're supporting trump than there have

00:29:21.120 been supporting republicans in the past because i was thinking you know um you've got tim dylan you've got

00:29:29.280 roseanne you've got me uh comic dave smith i feel like i feel like there are a whole bunch of people who are

00:29:38.480 humorous first who have become relevant in the the trump era and it feels like yeah joe rogan right

00:29:48.480 yeah obviously joe rogan and a number of other comedians as well uh adam carolla exactly

00:29:59.360 yeah i'm forgetting a few others

00:30:01.120 but that's is that new that would be so many humorous who are sort of pro-trump i guess uh comic

00:30:11.360 dave smith has made a turn he's not oh yeah shane gillis um i guess he's not pro-trump he's asking for

00:30:19.600 trump's uh impeachment over over the israel stuff i guess but anyway so uh i would give my compliments

00:30:31.840 to all of the people i mentioned for yeah greg gotfeld um because they all made themselves relevant

00:30:42.160 and they didn't do it by having terrible opinions theo von yeah he's more in the gray area but yes

00:30:51.200 so you know theo von is not in the category of a

00:30:55.040 a person who is trying to make serious um geopolitical comments that change the world

00:31:03.760 but a number of us do we're we're literally trying to you know make sure the country is

00:31:09.600 steering in the right direction as best we can um so i'm very impressed that all the people who

00:31:17.600 just carve down a space for themselves by being useful and having an opinion that people could either

00:31:25.120 debate with or uh agree with so very impressed um let's see what else

00:31:36.240 um according to axios and some reporting by barack ravid uh netanyahu has well this is axios has taken

00:31:46.960 uh effectively endorsed the idea of regime change in iran uh in a string of media appearances

00:31:54.400 um but trump they say has remained unconvinced but do we really know what trump is convinced of or not

00:32:04.320 we don't do we we you know it might be that trump is going to act unconvinced

00:32:11.600 while at the same time stepping aside and letting israel do whatever it needs to do

00:32:18.400 um

00:32:20.640 all right

00:32:24.560 and i guess there was a israeli airstrike in iran overnight

00:32:31.280 that took out some iranian military top top base

00:32:36.320 um i can't imagine that there would be any humans in the iranian military who would be going to work

00:32:45.680 in the office

00:32:48.720 wouldn't wouldn't all of the military um structures be empty by now because they're such obvious targets

00:32:57.360 now the other thing i wonder about

00:32:58.960 is i assume that uh israel got on top of iran's communication devices meaning that uh

00:33:12.800 meaning that the iranians probably don't have a secure means of communicating even if they wanted to

00:33:22.320 which would tell me that the israelis know where everybody is all the time

00:33:26.960 and they know what they're up to all the time so um i would get out of tehran if i were

00:33:36.720 if i were in the military i would run because it looks like it's just setting ducks at this point

00:33:43.760 well in related news um speaking of immigration uh one of the questions people at is you know why

00:33:55.440 are all the protesters over 65 and um i had speculated it's because they're easier to scare

00:34:03.920 and especially if they're watching the mainstream media so elderly people make up a lot of the

00:34:10.800 protesters on the streets for the go kings and the anti-ice protests

00:34:17.920 but part of it is because they have a lot of time on their hands

00:34:22.160 part of it is because they're ex-hippies so they're reliving their you know their exciting youth

00:34:28.880 being protesters some of it is maybe because the elderly are unfixed incomes so they feel more

00:34:36.240 vulnerable so they feel like there's more they have to protest about

00:34:42.800 um but i would argue that we should see it as a mental disorder

00:34:49.280 and that the elderly are just more prone to it you know just like alzheimer's and other stuff and

00:34:56.320 uh i saw a post by meg brock who was asking the question on x when is trump derangement syndrome

00:35:07.680 going to be officially added to the dsm-5 to make it an official diagnosis and i wondered if it was

00:35:16.000 already there because i've heard lots of reports of therapists who treat it like it's real uh because it

00:35:24.160 is and they've got a lot of clients who come in and say i've got some form of tds or at least they exhibit it

00:35:34.400 and so i went to grok to find out is it already in the literature because why wouldn't it be

00:35:42.720 wouldn't you expect that by now trump derangement syndrome would be a legitimate diagnosis

00:35:49.200 because i'm pretty sure there are a lot of individual therapists who consider it a legitimate diagnosis

00:35:57.440 so i looked and apparently no and grok says that there's the reason is not you know an official disorder

00:36:08.640 is that there's a lack of clinical basis there's no peer-reviewed studies

00:36:13.920 uh or psychological research or professional mental health organizations recognizing it as a

00:36:21.360 diagnosable condition and then grok says it lacks defined symptoms diagnostic criteria or empirical

00:36:30.480 evidence required for a legitimate disorder to which i say well wait a minute isn't it a lot like

00:36:39.200 addiction if i said to you um you have a drinking problem knowing that drinking is a legal activity

00:36:49.120 for adults how would you define it as a problem versus a hobby and the answer is usually if it interferes

00:36:57.920 with your life so if you're drinking has an impact on your life as in you lose your job you lose your

00:37:05.680 relationships you spend all your money you wake up in a ditch well then you've got a drinking problem

00:37:13.360 if you had two drinks on the weekend with your friends and then took a uber home we would mostly

00:37:21.440 say you're just somebody who has a hobby and you don't have a problem but don't you think tds is exactly

00:37:29.120 like that if somebody simply prefers uh a democrat over trump i would say oh well that's just a political

00:37:41.360 preference but if somebody is crying and shaking and and they feel like he's gonna become a king and

00:37:49.840 he's gonna lock people up in prison camps isn't that interfering with your actual life and happiness

00:37:58.800 and wouldn't that be super easy to diagnose if you're a therapist so in my opinion we have everything

00:38:07.600 we need which is uh it's easy to diagnose you know do you have a worry that trump is president and that

00:38:16.240 he'll do terrible things do you believe things that are real or do you believe things that are imaginary

00:38:24.480 and you don't even need that part you can just you can just say um does it does it affect your life

00:38:32.800 you know do you wake up in the morning shaking and crying if the answer is yes

00:38:40.000 then you've got a you know a mental health disorder i would think so i feel like that really

00:38:47.280 needs to be a legitimate mental health disorder it would help ontario the wait is over the gold

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00:39:54.480 um let's say so speaking of the trump coalition um trump also has trouble with the immigration

00:40:05.600 um issue because trump has started out being you know as hard line as you could possibly be on

00:40:13.120 immigration and that was keeping his coalition together because they were hard line on immigration

00:40:21.040 too but then when trump said well maybe not the farm workers and the the hotel hospitality people

00:40:31.280 because they would be hard to replace then he lost a bunch of his followers who said what do you mean

00:40:40.240 there's no exceptions if they're here illegally they gotta go so apparently trump has veered back to

00:40:50.640 yes there will be raids on farms and hospitality places including i suppose trump hotels i don't know

00:41:01.280 but uh but uh do you remember the uh food company was it valley foods or somebody where uh the immigration

00:41:11.120 people basically arrested half of the workforce or some big percentage and apparently they immediately

00:41:19.280 got lots of job applicants for from american-born people so if you were worried that there were no americans

00:41:28.720 who would apply for you know jobs if the uh foreign-born people who were not citizens get shipped or deported um we have one 1.00

00:41:41.040 one uh data point that says that it might not be a problem i would argue that probably will depend a lot on where you are

00:41:50.000 so if you're living out what state was that was it iowa or something i can't remember what state it was

00:42:00.080 but it could be that you know if you're in a rural situation it's easier to fill those jobs maybe i don't know

00:42:08.720 so we'll we'll see about that but uh trump has a big problem so he's either gonna put farming and uh

00:42:17.040 uh and uh the hotel business out of business or maybe not out of business but deeply inconvenienced

00:42:28.960 um but as long as there are people who are american citizens who want to apply for those jobs

00:42:36.000 immediately upon the openings then he'd be in pretty good shape so whether you're in favor

00:42:43.280 of it or not in favor of it it might be practical so you know take that for what it's worth

00:42:53.760 according to the post-millennial there's a poll that says a majority of hispanic voters support

00:43:01.440 trump's deportation policies which we have heard before but it's good that it's consistent

00:43:08.560 uh this is the uh survey by the league of american workers and technometrica institute of policy and

00:43:18.720 politics 53 percent of hispanic voters say they somewhat or strongly support increasing deportations

00:43:29.760 especially ones with criminal records but that that part's easy

00:43:32.960 so overall six and ten registered voters back the trump um deportation plans so he's still in good

00:43:43.520 shape there um according to blaze media and i guess this comes from the trump administration

00:43:52.640 there are one million illegal aliens who have reportedly self-deported

00:43:57.520 uh now my question would be this is there anything about the group that is self-deporting

00:44:06.720 that would be uh some kind of a common theme

00:44:12.320 so my question is would the would the worst let's say the people have done more crimes than just coming

00:44:20.720 into the country illegally uh do you think they would be the ones would be self-deporting

00:44:26.160 because they wouldn't want to go to jail or would it be the ones who want to have the highest odds of

00:44:32.400 coming in legally because apparently if you self-deport you maintain your ability to come

00:44:38.640 back through a legal process so do you think the million people who allegedly self-deported are the

00:44:48.400 the worst people you know the criminal types who are trying to avoid getting arrested

00:44:53.440 or are they the most law-abiding types who are using a process that keeps all their options open

00:45:02.800 i don't know but i'm sure most of you don't care

00:45:08.400 it would be great if it was mostly the criminals who left but that would be a lot to ask

00:45:13.920 in other news uh fbi director cash patel is reporting that the fbi has located documents

00:45:27.840 that detail uh allegations that china um tried to print a bunch of fake mail-in ballots for our 2020

00:45:38.800 u.s election now adjust the news says as this story if you want to read up on it john solomon

00:45:47.760 but they say that newly declassified intelligence reports partially corroborate um but but it was

00:45:56.320 recalled before it was fully investigated so we don't have um confirmation but there's a strongest strong

00:46:07.440 suggestion that uh china might might have been involved in trying to rig our elections 0.51

00:46:14.400 and that china allegedly had mass produced fake u.s driver's licenses as part of their scheme to get the

00:46:23.440 fake mail-in ballots and then vote for joe biden now do you think china would have uh cared enough

00:46:33.520 about who was president that they would think about uh rigging our election i don't know it feels like

00:46:43.200 something like this would be um too big a risk because imagine imagine if we caught them

00:46:52.720 that would be pretty big problem for china so i'm not i would say that the odds of this

00:47:00.560 um being confirmed at some point are less than 50 percent so maybe it's true you know and we kind of

00:47:12.480 want to believe it's true but i'm going to say that probably the reason it was only partially corroborated

00:47:19.040 and it was dropped is that maybe there wasn't enough it just wasn't credible enough but we'll see we'll see

00:47:27.280 i could be wrong um but it doesn't feel like the the type of thing that china would do because it would 0.99

00:47:35.040 be too easy to detect their presence like that the risk of getting caught would be beyond whatever the

00:47:42.720 the benefit would be so i don't know i'm not i'm not buying this one entirely

00:47:48.160 well as you know the fed has been holding tight on interest rates when a lot of people want them to

00:47:57.680 be cut the wall street journal says that the reason that the fed is not cutting rates is that they're

00:48:06.320 still waiting on a combination of inflation numbers and job numbers and they want to see how the tariffs

00:48:14.640 play out play out in terms of the public's expectation that the tariffs will increase prices that would be

00:48:22.720 part of inflation so according to the wall street journal the only thing keeping the fed from lowering

00:48:31.600 interest rates is the uncertainty around jobs and inflation and tariffs maybe that that could be the

00:48:41.520 the entire answer but um if you if you like the all-in pod and you follow chamath who uh i believe should

00:48:51.120 be known only by his first name you know like uh madonna or share um but chamath said uh he thinks that the

00:49:01.120 only reason is political and he could be right about that too because there's always a reason

00:49:09.120 you know you could always say well you know that inflation number well those tariffs oh well we

00:49:16.240 don't know about the jobs number so you can always make up a reason for why you're either moving the

00:49:22.320 rates or not moving them but it does feel political doesn't it it does feel like uh powell is not the biggest

00:49:32.240 fan of trump and there's a lot that there's a lot that uh at risk as chamath points out um just the

00:49:44.800 savings in um in interest that we pay on our debt would could be like 300 billion dollars a year

00:49:52.080 with just a interest rate change so it's really big it could be the difference between

00:49:59.120 you know the united states stays a viable country and it doesn't so we'll see um

00:50:08.800 when i found out my friend got a great deal on a wool coat from winners i started wondering is every

00:50:15.120 fabulous item i see from winners like that woman over there with the designer jeans are those from 1.00

00:50:20.960 winners ooh are those beautiful gold earrings did she pay full price or that leather tote or that cashmere 0.99

00:50:27.120 sweater or those knee-high boots that dress that jacket those shoes is anyone paying full price for

00:50:33.760 anything stop wondering start winning winners find fabulous for less apparently uh open ai just got a

00:50:43.120 big old contract with the government a 200 million dollar u.s defense contract

00:50:48.560 uh now uh mike ben's points out in a post on x uh that uh he goes and now you know why open ai recruited the

00:51:00.880 head of the nsa to its board last year the biggest money in quote private business is always in looting the

00:51:09.520 pentagon's infinite taxpayer money glitch so the uh the implication

00:51:15.760 is that uh open ai is uh let's say cooperating with the government and the government is cooperating

00:51:25.360 back now remember how uh we heard that the cia has said that they were only going to allow

00:51:33.600 a few big ai companies to succeed and that would be easier to control and manage and obviously open ai would

00:51:43.520 be at the top of the list of ones that our government wants to succeed so do you think it's a

00:51:52.240 total accident that they get a gigantic government contract

00:51:59.360 well they might be the most capable of fulfilling the contract because it is open ai after all so

00:52:06.480 there's sort of a leader in the field but uh this is one of those things where you have to you kind of

00:52:13.040 scratch your head and you say huh is this all connected or is it just that open ai has the best ai and

00:52:21.520 the government looked at all of them and said oh this is the best one we will never know we'll never know

00:52:29.840 um in other news randy weingarten who is the head of the biggest uh teachers union um announced that

00:52:38.960 she's quitting the dnc the democratic national committee now as a cory deangelis asks on an ex post 0.99

00:52:49.040 why didn't the media ever mention that randy weingarten had a position at the democratic national committee

00:52:57.920 and more to the point if cory deangelis didn't know that randy weingarten was on the democrat national

00:53:05.680 committee who would i mean he's he's about as plugged into the whole uh you know school choice

00:53:14.160 teachers union situation as anybody could be he didn't know so it makes me uh wonder was randy weingarten

00:53:23.280 mostly a democrat who was also the head of the teachers union or was she on the teachers union

00:53:30.880 and also a democrat it does seem to me that the head of the teachers union should probably not be

00:53:39.440 on the democratic national committee but uh i guess she she had a reason to leave so it doesn't matter now

00:53:50.080 it's kind of a bother that we didn't know it though doesn't it bother you that we didn't know that

00:53:55.200 that was pretty important to know and uh we didn't um according to uh the post-millennial the omg group

00:54:08.880 o'keefe media group uh has determined that uh some of the protesters for the no kings protest

00:54:16.960 were being paid uh by some communist group they were being paid to protest but they were paid 20 bucks

00:54:25.200 so here's the problem with a communist plot the communists don't have enough money to to buy

00:54:35.440 anything good they're like hey how would you like to spend the entire day out in the sun protesting

00:54:43.520 something that doesn't even exist kings uh a totally imaginary problem and we'll give you 20 dollars

00:54:53.040 how many of you would protest all day in the sun for 20 i feel like the communists have have a little bit

00:55:04.880 of a you know a little bit of a model problem there i don't know what it would take but i'm thinking

00:55:14.240 200 you know might get somebody to walk around in the sun for an afternoon but 20 dollars

00:55:23.040 what what would you do for 20 dollars not much anyway communists do not pay competitive fees

00:55:37.120 well the uh the publication nature that's a science publication um is going to now require

00:55:45.600 that the peer-reviewed papers um show not just that they're peer-reviewed but that uh

00:55:53.040 showed the communication back and forth between the peer reviewer and the submitter

00:56:00.480 so that feels like a good upgrade so you can see just how close they were you know what changes they

00:56:07.920 had to make to get uh published i don't know if that's the answer but at the moment something like

00:56:15.520 50 percent of all peer-reviewed papers turn out to be not reproducible as in not really science

00:56:23.040 um so if they can if they can improve on the coin flip nature of it which is what it is now

00:56:31.680 then it's worth a try so i don't know if this will work but definitely worth it worth a shot

00:56:38.800 all right in other news texas is apparently going to invest 50 million dollars in a psychedelic drug

00:56:47.360 research to treat addiction medical express has a story and i guess greg abbott governor abbott is

00:56:56.000 all all in on this and the specific psychedelic is something called ibogaine ibogaine i don't know much

00:57:07.280 about that but apparently it causes powerful hallucinations that can last for hours and there

00:57:14.320 are some studies that suggest it might help people stop using opioids or other drugs even after just

00:57:22.160 one session one session all right now how many times have i told you a story that had to do with

00:57:30.960 psychedelics improving either your mental status of depression or anxiety or addiction

00:57:41.200 um it's very very consistent it doesn't seem to matter too much which hallucinogen you're using

00:57:50.160 there's something about hallucinogens that just improve your brain process and i would argue that

00:58:00.880 i've said this before but i haven't said it in a while

00:58:03.680 those people who have experienced hallucinogens at least once i believe they can recognize other people

00:58:13.440 who also have how many of you would agree with that now you can only agree with that if you've yourself

00:58:21.280 experienced hallucinogens but i believe you could just tell in about 10 seconds you know of interaction

00:58:31.120 with another person that you can tell if they've ever had a hallucinogen and look in the comments you'll

00:58:37.760 see a lot of people saying oh yeah you can tell because i think one experience changes you forever

00:58:47.920 and i also think and and i have no backing for this whatsoever that you can tell by the eyes

00:58:54.240 i think you can look in somebody's eyes and you can tell if they've had that experience and if they're

00:59:02.880 at operating at that level of awareness now not every time of course but i'll bet you know more than

00:59:09.920 guessing i'll bet you could tell all right ladies and gentlemen that's what i had for you today uh thanks for

00:59:19.760 joining we'll see if my predictions about uh what's gonna happen in tehran are correct uh i remind you that

00:59:28.240 i'm not backing israel or not backing them i'm observing and predicting and uh you know my country is america

00:59:38.720 so that's the one i care about um i'm going to say a few words privately to the uh people on locals and the rest of

00:59:47.760 view i will see you tomorrow same time same place i hope hope you enjoyed it all right locals coming at you in 30 seconds

01:00:17.760 you

01:00:47.760 Thank you.

01:01:17.760 Thank you.

01:01:47.760 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - June 17, 2025

Episode 2871 CWSA 06⧸17⧸25

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