Episode 2873 CWSA 06⧸19⧸25
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 11 minutes
Words per Minute
126.69778
Summary
In this episode of Coffee with Scott Adams, we talk about a man who proposed to his AI chat bot girlfriend and she said yes. We talk about corruption in government corruption in the media, and the future of the internet.
Transcript
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hello everybody let's uh well happy juneteenth first of all
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and let's get our comments up and working and then we've got something come on there we go
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uh i would ask you on locals to ask yourself if i really want to see that picture again
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i do not i do not ever want to see that picture again or any version of it all right
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welcome to coffee with scott adams the best thing that ever happened to you
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if you'd like to see if you could take this experience up to levels that no one can even
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understand with their tiny shiny human brains all you need for that is a cup or mug or glass
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a tank or chalice of stein a canteen jug or flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite
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liquid i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine ahead of
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the day the thing that makes everything better it's called the that's right the simultaneous sip
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so good oh my god so good well i warned you this was gonna happen
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and now it's reality according to cbs morning show saturday morning show uh there's a man who
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proposed to his ai chat bot girlfriend and was so happy when she said yes um that he cried
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aww uh his name is chris smith and believe it or not he was willing to he was willing to go public with
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this amazingly and he named his he named his ai girlfriend soul and he gave up on all other search
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engines to stay committed to her uh now here's the fun part so he's gonna marry an ai uh but it turns out
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he has a two-year-old child and lives with his partner who says she feels like she is not doing
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something right if he feels like he needs an ai girlfriend to which i say yeah that have you tried
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being nice to him because i'm pretty sure the ai girlfriend is starting from you know a behind situation
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and if if you're so mean to your boyfriend they decides he'd rather have a he'd rather marry an ai
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well according to uh elon musk uh we might be only a year away from ai super intelligence
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now that would be defined as uh a digital super intelligence would be something that's
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smarter than any human at anything do you think that's a year away well i throw down my challenge
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i do not believe that the super intelligence will be able to do humor i believe that humor might be the
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last thing that an ai could master if it does at all now i don't know if super intelligence
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is synonymous with um the general intelligence that everybody's aiming for so maybe it's an llm version
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where i can just do ordinary things better but it can't reason i don't know we'll see in one year
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here well according to cnn uh rfk jr wants to get rid of drug ads on tv which would basically put news
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models and a business people like cnn and maybe fox news and some others and i'm gonna say again we
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don't know what happens if the mainstream news goes on the business what would happen to all the senior citizens
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what would they watch or would some billionaire
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buy each of the networks and just run it at a loss sort of like the jeff bezos washington post model
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that might be what happens so if i had to guess i think the brand cnn and msnbc will probably live on
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but who knows who owns it or how they make money so that that could get interesting well according to fox news
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um there was a uh a fellow under the joe biden administration who was associated with usa id
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and there was an 800 million dollar contract awarded to a known con man
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who was asked to do kamala harris's job of fighting the root causes of irregular migration
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so apparently four men including a government contracting officer for the usa id and three
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owners and presidents of companies have pled guilty for their their role in a decades-long bribery scheme
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so i think the bribery scheme is that if you bribe somebody enough they will give you
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millions of dollars in contracts for doing very little work now here's what i've been telling you for years
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for years i've been saying that in any situation where it's possible to have corruption it always happens
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so all you need for corruption is a lot of money involved a lot of complexity
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so complexity a lot of money a lot of people involved and then time if you have all of those things you
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know on day one it might not be corrupt but if you keep adding people to it and you add complexity
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and nobody knows exactly where the money's going or why your odds of your odds of some corruption
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are a hundred percent it'll happen every single time you don't even have to ask every single time
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now again if if you don't find the corruption it's either because it did a good job of hiding
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or because the situation is too new but eventually it's going to be corrupt so all the usa id stuff all the ngos
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yeah pretty corrupt well some people are making the connection between the usa id being unfunded
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uh and the fact that the news is telling us that the democratic national committee is out of cash do you
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think do you think those stories are related do you think that the uh democrats were siphoning off
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money from usa id into the democrat party well i don't know about that so i don't have any evidence that
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that that is the case but uh the dnc says there's a big drop in big donations now that doesn't surprise me
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is anybody surprised that the democrats are not attracting as many donations as they used to
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maybe it has to do with losing everything all the time
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maybe it has something to do with uh being on the 20 side of every 80 20 issue
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maybe as something to do with you know david hogg and ken martin and you know not exactly exciting anybody
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or maybe it has to do with having no national leader who seems worthy of funding i feel like that's the big one
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so i wouldn't worry too much for the democrats uh until they get a nominee if they find a nominee for
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president for 2028 um and then they don't get any any donations well then they're in trouble
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but my guess is as soon as they're happy with their nominee that the money will pour in just a guess
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when i found out my friend got a great deal on a wool coat from winners i started wondering is every
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fabulous item i see from winners like that woman over there with the designer jeans are those from
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winners ooh or those beautiful gold earrings did she pay full price or that leather tote or that cashmere
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sweater or those knee-high boots that dress that jacket those shoes is anyone paying full price for
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anything stop wondering start winning winners find fabulous for less well the supreme court um you
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probably heard has upheld a tennessee ban on trans um surgery or gender affirming medical treatments for
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transgender minors and it upheld it by six to three now clay travis
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has a rather severe opinion about this and i'm not going to say that i totally agree with it because
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it's a little anecdotal but um it's worthy worthy of being surfaced so here's what clay travis says about
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the supreme court upholding the tennessee ban on minors getting trans processes um he says there are
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seven parents on the supreme court and of nine and they voted the parents voted six to one against
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minor children being permitted to have surgery and then he says two childless women
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sotomayor and kagan voted two to nothing to permit it and then he says the democrat party to a large degree
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now enacts the political desires of childless women
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well i'm not sure you could make that general assessment from this one situation but if you see that
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pattern repeating itself then we might might take a second look at it it's a little bit early um i
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definitely think the democrat party is a single woman dominated party but i don't know if this is you know
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this might be a special case i'm not sure that this is telling you that
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all right all right so according to grok the majority of the court was focused on states rights
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saying that the states had a right to regulate um whether the children get those treatments
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and the two dissenters argue that the law discriminates based on sex and transgender status
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so that does sound like a single woman kind of an opinion doesn't it anyway
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um there is news that the economy is doing well um apparently the blue collar wage growth
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was up 1.7 percent in since trump got into office which is considered higher than other presidents
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in the same period but i don't know if that one data point is really telling us much but inflation
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if we were to compare that to biden's performance um did you see a news item i think it was yesterday
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that said that the entire 400 000 jobs that biden claimed to have created
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were all fake like all of them apparently if you look at non-government jobs it was minus a thousand
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so how many of you remember when i had a debate with uh michael lee and black and i had him as a guest
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and before i realized he was not you know debating me in good faith he was just sort of trying to be
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difficult um he questioned me when i said that the biden employment numbers tended to be revised downward
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and he won the debate uh at least that part of it because i looked into it and sure enough it was not
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true it was not true that every single time it got uh lowered when it was revised a number of times it was
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but not every time so i i kind of conceded that point boy i should not have conceded that point
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because if you look at the entire picture it looks like it was all fake
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now what does that tell you about the data under the trump administration does that mean that the trump
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economic numbers are all accurate i don't know well i don't know i don't know how these numbers are
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cooked up or who does it but uh i guess the caution is don't trust the government
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when it gives you any statistics anyway um james carville was making some news he was talking about his
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friend tucker carlson so the first surprise for some of you is that uh tucker carlson and james carville
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have been friends for years now tucker often says that he interacts and his friends with lots of people
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who were on the polar opposite side of politics and i guess this would be one example
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uh but uh they were talking about uh the recent podcast where tucker carlson was talking to ted cruz
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um and talking about the israel iran situation and i gotta say you know i've had a mostly positive
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opinion of ted cruz you know just as a senator and i thought you know if he became president
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that wouldn't be terrible i thought to myself but uh he may have taken himself out of competition
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forever being president by his answers to tucker now i don't know what he's thinking
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or what his internal mental processes are but what he said out loud is really looking like a problem
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um he said that uh um what do you say he said that when he came into office he wanted to be the most uh
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pro-israel um senator ever i'm paraphrasing but that's it and i thought to myself that's really not
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something you want to say at the moment it would be perfectly okay to say you know that you're on israel's
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side and you support israel but the way he said it sounded almost like israel was his first priority
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now again i don't know what he's thinking and i'm not saying that's his mental process
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but that's the way it came out and then he denied that aipac was influencing congress very much
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he acted like they didn't have much influence which flies in the face of everything that you and i
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probably think is true because they they certainly put a lot of effort into doing what ted cruz says is
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nothing so i'm not sure i believe that they have you know no real influence over congress
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and uh and then he said that he takes the money from apac but really you have to understand that
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it's americans making small donations so it's not so much that israel or some israel
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group is giving him money but rather it's americans making small donations now again
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that might be technically true and we don't know what he's thinking but it just sounds like an excuse
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for doing what apac wants and for being pro-israel in all situations so you know i'm uh
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um but according to uh james carville talker carlson has been consistent with his anti-war opinions
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for a long time he says it's uh the same thing that talker is saying now is what he would have said in
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the green room in 2002 so that's interesting that carville has given uh talker sort of cover
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you know for being consistent um but as i've said um tucker has what i call a half opinion which is
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not a full opinion it's just half an opinion his half an opinion is that if we get involved in these
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you know foreign wars it it almost always goes bad so it's a bad idea to do it so apparently he called
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trump and uh at one point he must have apologized to trump for going a little hard at him and trump
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was talking about that conversation and trump said i did ask tucker are you okay with nuclear weapons
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being in the hands of iran and he didn't like that i said if it's okay with you then you and i have a
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a half a difference now that's where trump just um called out tucker for the half opinion the half
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opinion is what we all know which is if you get involved in a foreign war it might not go well and if you
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look at the history the history suggests it usually doesn't go well if not every single time it doesn't
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go well that part we all understand but trump asked the totally reasonable question are you okay with the
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alternative that iran has a nuclear weapon and it doesn't sound like trump got a answer from tucker
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and that's why i call it a half opinion because it seems to just leave out half of the half of the
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uh risk reward analysis um and uh then trump says uh whether you have to fight or not you can't
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allow iran the entire you know a weapon or the entire world will blow up claudia was leaving for
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her pickleball tournament i've been visualizing my match all week she was so focused on visualizing
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that she didn't see the column behind her car on her backhand side good thing claudia's with intact
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the insurer with the largest network of auto service centers in the country everything was taken care
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of under one roof and she was on her way in a rental car in no time i made it to my tournament
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and lost in the first round but you got there on time intact insurance your auto service ace certain
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conditions apply all right what is the most predictable thing that could happen in the israel
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um iran war if you had to if you had to guess what is the most likely thing that will be reported in
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the news what would it be well uh my vote for the most likely thing that would be in the news
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is that one of the sides would um hit a hospital with a missile sure enough
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you can always depend on that story now i don't know why i'm a little bit puzzled because it's hard
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for me to imagine um any side in a conflict who thinks it's a good idea to bomb the hospital on the other
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side because obviously that's not going to help your own team love you more you know there it's not
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like hamas or or iran you know it's not like the citizens were saying yes we bombed that hospital
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so why would anybody do it but there's always a hospital that gets bombed
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um now in the case of uh hamas and gaza the explanation was that the hospital you know was
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a cover for some tunnels beneath that there were a hamas stronghold but there's always a reason
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there's always a reason so the one thing you can always count on is that there will be a headline
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story as there is today um that uh iran um presumably intentionally shot a missile into a hospital
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now the good news is the hospital was largely empty um and they had already gone to uh you know a lower
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floor or something to to be safer so it didn't uh have a big death toll but right on schedule
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there there's there's the weird hospital missile attack now i think iran said they weren't aiming at
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the hospital but uh i saw trey trey angst yankst say that if it was a missile and they think it was a
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missile that missiles are not dumb instruments that you aim them at a specific place but does that mean
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that every missile hits where you aim i don't know so i'm sure the story is real but i'm just puzzled
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why it's so predictable that early in any conflict and it happened in ukraine too right didn't ukraine
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have stories of uh you know russia bombed our hospital and again why would they do it intentionally
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it it doesn't really make the other side want to give up it it would be a weird thing to do
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intentionally but the news always says it's intentional so maybe there's something i don't
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know about military strategy in hospitals according to uh the x account breaking 9-1-1 there's a bit of a
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run on the banks in iran maybe not all of them but at least one bank meli bank uh allegedly there's a
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run and people are requesting their money and they can't get it out it might have something to do with
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israeli cyber attacks because israel's going after the money centers and who knows what else
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so watch out for the banking situation in iran and um we also have to assume that iran is looking to
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um pay back both israel and america for any cyber attacks so we're gonna find out i think very soon
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how much capability iran has for cyber attacks because if they don't if they don't unleash one on
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either israel or the united states that doesn't take down a power grid or a bank or something
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i would feel like they don't have much capability because surely they would try right could there be any
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situation where iran said oh we have this cyber attack capability and we're being cyber attacked
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but we're not going to do it back that doesn't seem likely right so if a few weeks go by and there's no
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obvious iranian cyber attack um i would conclude that maybe they didn't have that much capability in the
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first place but we'll find out if the lights go out during the show well then i guess they had that
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capability uh trump was talking about the situation over there and he said and i quote they're totally
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defenseless they have no air defense whatsoever totally captured we've totally captured the air
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we why is he saying we um did did american aircraft do something in the air what exactly did america do that
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he's saying we and isn't that opposite of his strategy his strategy is to try to stay somewhat uninvolved
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while obviously being supportive in some support kind of ways is that a mistake when he said we've
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totally captured the air he's talking like the american military and the israeli military are basically
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the same thing is that just a mistake because it sounds like one sounds like uh maybe he misspoke
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um but that's not ideal all right according to axios um trump is said to have doubts about whether the uh
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those bunker busters that u.s has would actually be able to do the job who does that sound like
00:28:18.400
who is the one other person who told you i'm not so sure these bunker busters can get it done me i told
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you that yesterday right i said if they're talking about maybe using as many as six bunker busters per per
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site which they were that that's a pretty strong signal that they don't know if they'll work
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so trump is asking exactly the right questions according to axios he he was asking the experts
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are you sure are you sure this would work so allegedly he has already greenlit a battle plan
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but he is not greenlit doing it so he's approved he's approved that if there's a battle plan that
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the u.s is involved in what it would look like but he is not given the go-ahead to do it as far as we know
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and then furthermore um the israeli officials believe that the u.s will eventually join the war
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uh i guess that's axios as well and uh uh israel also claims that if the u.s doesn't use the bunker
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bombs or they don't work that israel could get the job done on the ground which i assume means special
00:29:53.760
forces put on the ground and then they try to take out the entryway and try to get in i don't know but
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um if we don't know for sure or let's say trump cannot be convinced that the bunker busters would
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work for sure what it would do is make us part of the war for sure so do you think trump would trade
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being definitely part of the offensive war without knowing it would work
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when he's got the option at least according to the israelis of letting them take a little bit more risk
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because there would be people on the ground probably probably lives lost
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and they say they could get it done on the ground why would trump ever ever say yes
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to the bunker busters while there's somebody smart in israel saying oh we could get this done without
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them doesn't that kind of tell you where it's heading to me it looks like trump is putting the
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maximum amount of psychological pressure on iran acting like you know we'll be in this war any minute and
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there's nothing they can do about it at the same time he really doesn't want to be in this war
00:31:20.720
so as long as our participation is not a hundred percent likely to work i don't know what the
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percentage would be but you know nobody could say it's a hundred percent and israel is saying we can do
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it on the ground why in the world would he ever authorize the bunker busters wouldn't you let or
00:31:43.040
wouldn't you let israel try to do it on the ground and if it doesn't work well you still have you know
00:31:50.400
you can make the decision later so from a decision making risk reward um perspective uh it seems to me
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that trump has a plan now he might not think of it that way but would it ever make sense for him to
00:32:11.920
green light a maybe and bring us into the war but it would make sense if israel couldn't get it done
00:32:20.640
on the ground well then it would start making sense like you got to do something because you can't let it
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remain so we'll see um uh matt gates had a former cia hacker guy say that america will uh he had him as
00:32:42.960
a guest and he says that america will face a cyber attack in the next 30 days why would it take 30 days
00:32:51.200
it seems to me that the minute those bunker busters go off that they would cyber attack us
00:33:00.720
right away why would they wait i don't know i'm chris hadfield i'm an astronaut an author a citizen
00:33:08.480
of planet earth join me for a six-part journey into the systems that power the world real conversations
00:33:15.600
with real people who are shaping the future of energy no politics no empty talk just solutions
00:33:23.440
focused conversations on the challenges we must overcome and the possibilities that lie ahead this
00:33:30.320
is on energy listen wherever you get your podcasts um israel is saying that uh the trick they used to get
00:33:40.080
all those uh generals in one place to blow them up um i guess that was mostly the air force generals
00:33:46.960
in iran uh they said they used a quote fake phone call and got 20 members of the the senior military
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staff for the air force in iran to go to the same bunker and then they blew up the bunker
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now yesterday i asked the question did they use a deep fake ai voice because the way i would have done
00:34:14.000
it is i would have taken out whatever their secure lines of communication are so that they had to use
00:34:20.960
unsecure lines and then i would have used a ai fake voice for somebody that they would all recognize
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and i would leave them all voicemails to say you know come to this bunker at a certain time
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and they would be too afraid not to come because they think if i don't show up you know my own
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my own uh boss is going to be pretty mad so israel is not giving us details they only call it a fake phone
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call but i sure wonder if that fake phone call used ai i don't think they would necessarily mention that
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if it did so that's an open question um there's a cnn poll on u.s opinion about uh whether iran should
00:35:14.960
be allowed to have nuclear weapons and according to the cnn's poll 83 of republicans
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and 79 percent of democrats oppose iran obtaining nuclear weapons and nearly seven in ten americans
00:35:32.080
support us airstrikes to stop iran's nuclear ambitions so there it is again in 80 20. so apparently
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if trump decided to do airstrikes and have the americans involved with their bunker busters
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it would be popular with eight out of ten americans
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once again the republicans would be on the 80 80 side of the 80 20. but uh that doesn't mean
00:36:04.480
it will go right i mean it doesn't mean it's a good idea but at least america would be somewhat unified
00:36:19.200
how it was unthinkable even a few years ago that israel could have so dominated iran militarily
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and that iran would be on the brink of you know losing all of their proxies
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uh all of their nuclear program all of their missiles
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and um he's also talking about uh he says uh we're going to see things that we haven't seen
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in our lifetime in the middle east and it could turn out very bad yes it could it could turn out
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very very bad um but it could also be revolutionary he points out and remake the map of the entire region
00:37:06.880
but um i wouldn't bet on it looks like it'd be a bad bet to assume things are going to go great
00:37:13.680
um according to uh i think this was on msnbc u.s intelligence on monday told the u.s senate that it
00:37:27.520
still sees no evidence that iran is trying to create nuclear weapons now is that the same intelligence
00:37:34.720
people who told us that iraq definitely had uh nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction
00:37:41.840
why would we trust them because they're not saying that iran's not doing it they're saying that
00:37:55.040
well i see no evidence either so does that mean it's not happening i don't know do you do you trust our
00:38:03.840
intelligence people to be so accurate that if they say there's no evidence that we found
00:38:10.000
that that means it's not happening um trump says that iran was very close to creating nuclear weapons
00:38:19.600
um so i asked grok about it and grok says that if you look at iran's uh uranium enrichment plans
00:38:30.640
they seem to be enriching the uranium way beyond the point where they would need it for domestic reasons
00:38:37.360
uh you know like medical reasons uh you know like medical reasons or other reasons that you use
00:38:41.840
that material and that uh probably they were pursuing what it what would be called a threshold capability
00:38:52.720
meaning that it might be true that iran had no intention of making a nuclear weapon but it might also be
00:39:00.880
true that they want you to think that they could at any minute so the way to you know split that baby
00:39:10.080
is to say we've enriched our uranium to such a point that if we wanted to if we wanted to we can make a
00:39:21.120
weapon any minute now would that give them more leverage in international negotiations and affairs it would
00:39:30.880
yeah it would but um it has the iraq problem do you remember why we were so confused about whether iraq had
00:39:46.640
apparently according to grok i had to check it to make sure i was remembering correctly
00:39:52.160
apparently saddam hussein wanted his local rivals and maybe other people to believe he had nuclear
00:40:00.560
weapons because then they would not attack and try to overthrow his regime so it could be
00:40:08.080
that in the iraqi case um pretending to have nuclear weapons is what destroyed iraq because we we
00:40:17.440
acted like well if if they're not denying it and they're not letting us look for ourselves and we've
00:40:25.520
got these reports that they're doing it and saddam is not denying it very hard well maybe we have to
00:40:34.160
treat it like it's real and it looks to me like iran might be making the same problem it's entirely possible
00:40:42.000
that they had zero intention of ever making a nuclear weapon but a hundred percent intention of making
00:40:48.960
people think that they could at any minute if that's what they were doing that was a bad miscalculation
00:40:57.920
because you would have to treat it like it's real even if you thought i think they're bluffing i think
00:41:05.200
they're i think they're i think they just have this threshold strategy where they they want us to think
00:41:11.920
they can do it at any minute well what is israel going to do with that the the only reasonable way
00:41:19.760
to treat that is like it's real and so they are so it's entirely possible that both iraq and iran
00:41:28.800
will be totally destroyed because they pretended to either have or be close to nuclear weapons
00:41:38.080
that that might actually be what's happening here don't know we will never know probably
00:41:46.800
um i was reading a post from uh joel pollack who's watching carefully the situation in israel and he
00:41:56.800
points out that uh israel's army radio says that israeli air force is still attacking targets in iran at
00:42:04.800
dawn and doing it freely so in other words they're not even waiting for cover of darkness uh and that's
00:42:12.080
how much that that's how much control they have over there uh and they're even going after the iraq
00:42:19.200
a-r-a-k nuclear facility because i think that is part of what makes them you know fissile material or
00:42:29.600
something there's some connection between that that facility and making bombs i think uh meanwhile um iran
00:42:40.320
managed to fire some missiles but uh not that many maybe a few dozen um now the uh the news is telling
00:42:52.000
us that trump has approved a battle plan but has not greenlit it does that sound real to you
00:43:01.200
that sounds real to me because it seems to me that by now um the military would have given trump their
00:43:08.160
best options and said if we do it we would do it this way and then trump would have to approve
00:43:15.840
that if we do it that is the way we would do it but the question of do we do it would still be open
00:43:24.720
and like i said it seems to me that um trump would be waiting to see if israel could get the job done on
00:43:32.640
the ground uh before we commit to major you know offensive um contribution to the war um here are
00:43:43.520
some tips that tell you where trump's mind is i don't think he would use the phrase unconditional
00:43:51.200
surrender if he if he even wanted to negotiate with iran would you agree you would never say
00:44:01.760
we want unconditional surrender if you also believe that you would someday be at a table negotiating which
00:44:09.680
way it goes you just wouldn't use that phrase so to me that's a big red flag that says that trump
00:44:18.160
has decided that this will end militarily but may not have decided whether the u.s is going to be part
00:44:25.360
of that military action or not so that's where i think he is just you know i can't read his mind
00:44:35.120
um but of course we're putting all of our military assets in place and we've got lots of refueling
00:44:41.360
planes in case we need to get a bomber all the way over there from where it is
00:44:48.640
so that's all part of the the psychological pressure that may also be real i mean we would
00:44:55.360
do those things if we were planning to attack but we would do those things if we wanted them to think
00:45:01.680
we're planning to attack so trump has what i call a kobayashi maru situation those of you who are star
00:45:11.840
trek fans recognize that reference kobayashi maru if you're not familiar it comes from the original star
00:45:21.280
trek where captain kirk was a cadet and he was doing uh doing a simulation where he was pretending to be
00:45:31.120
the captain of a starship and uh he would run into this impossible situation which had no way to win
00:45:40.880
so the cadets didn't know there was no way to win they just knew that nobody had won
00:45:46.400
um apparently captain kirk figured out that it was designed so that nobody could ever win and he
00:45:55.840
um somehow reprogrammed it so that there was a way to win so in other words he cheated he he found the
00:46:04.400
solution that wasn't even on the list of solutions now it seems to me that that's where trump is
00:46:12.240
he's got a kobayashi maru which is if he gets involved it's bad and if he doesn't get involved
00:46:19.520
it's bad but here is his options if uh if israel and trump do not eliminate the iranian missile and
00:46:28.800
nuclear capacities then almost everybody will think that's a giant mistake would you agree if we got this
00:46:37.760
far and i'm saying we um if israel got this far and somehow had to give up and say all right we can't
00:46:45.760
get your nuclear stuff it's too hard everybody would say that's a giant mistake because they would just
00:46:52.400
reconstitute their threat and be more angry than they were before so you can't really do that can't really
00:47:00.720
walk away um if israel were to take out the top leadership in iran uh we think that would lead to
00:47:10.960
chaos sort of like the iraq or libya model and would just be the show of all shows so that's not really
00:47:18.960
a good option and that's probably the reason that the supreme leader is still alive as far as we know
00:47:25.280
um so if the and if they allow the iranian leadership to survive then even if we destroy
00:47:39.680
we again it's so hard not to use that word so even if the iranian nuclear facilities and missile
00:47:46.480
production are completely destroyed if the original and existing leadership survives
00:47:53.760
what are they going to do as soon as the the shooting stops they're just going to reconstitute
00:48:01.680
those things as fast as they can and they would have the know-how and probably get some help from
00:48:08.240
i don't know china um so that wouldn't work so you can't take out the leadership but you also can't
00:48:17.200
let them survive those are both losing plays if uh if israel finishes the job without us
00:48:26.160
um then do you think iran is going to say oh the usa was not really part of this action so we won't be
00:48:34.080
mad at them no i think even if even if trump um plays it perfectly and allows the israelis to go in
00:48:44.240
on the ground and do everything without any without any bunker busters iran is still going to you know
00:48:51.120
treat the united states like we were a co-combatant so it's not like they're going to be um fooled by that
00:48:59.760
so that's not ideal and if iran were to make an unexpected offer tomorrow or today in which they'd say
00:49:09.760
all right all right all right we give up uh we will get rid of all of our missiles and all of our
00:49:15.120
nuclear stuff you know just let us let us negotiate this well neither israel nor the united states would
00:49:23.760
believe them so that would be sort of a non-starter so those are all the um the obvious paths
00:49:33.360
and they're all bad every path is bad that's the kobayashi maru there's no way to win so if trump
00:49:44.000
finds a way to make this work it will be a captain kirk situation where where when it's done we say to
00:49:52.880
ourselves oh i didn't even realize that was an option but if he goes down one of the obvious paths
00:50:01.280
they all look bad they all look like losing paths in the long run so we'll see what he does um i do
00:50:10.560
have some hope that if anybody could captain kirk the situation it would be trump yeah he's the only
00:50:20.960
probably the only politician i could even imagine who could come up with a way to solve this that was
00:50:27.680
not on the list and we'd say oh well i didn't even imagine that solution so that would be the best
00:50:36.080
case scenario we'll see i saw a post from general flynn um in which he said uh uh if the if israel
00:50:48.000
achieves total victory and the iranian regime collapses and a new pro-western iranian leader
00:50:54.400
emerges which he says are all very achievable under the current conditions to which i say
00:51:02.240
is that really an option is it really an option to replace the current regime with a pro-western
00:51:11.600
leader i don't think that's an option because it's not like the it's not like the uh
00:51:19.120
um the population of iran is on israel's side or even america's side they like america apparently
00:51:28.800
or they like the west but they're under attack their stuff is blowing up you know that they know
00:51:36.160
people were being killed so no i don't think iran is in the mood to install a pro-western puppet
00:51:45.920
um i feel like that's just a little bit too much optimism how many of you think that would work
00:51:54.640
i i think a a pro-western iranian leader going into that position i feel like they would be assassinated in
00:52:02.880
10 minutes because the there would just be so many people left in the government who would say you
00:52:10.320
can't put a puppet in here you know that's the same as total surrender so i really don't see the option
00:52:18.080
of a pro-western leader being installed it just feels like that wouldn't last it'd be like a 10 minute
00:52:25.200
solution i don't know well in other news um you remember when pakistan and india were looking like
00:52:34.080
they were going to war and then they stood down and trump took the credit for helping them uh you know
00:52:44.960
essentially mediating the situation well india is now saying that trump did not mediate the situation
00:52:52.960
and that it was india and pakistan's military who worked down to a ceasefire and then pakistan
00:53:05.200
is disagreeing with india and saying that trump was uh helpful and mediating and even went so far as
00:53:13.360
to suggest they should be nominated for a uh a nobel peace prize so you've got india
00:53:22.880
saying that india did it you've got pakistan saying that trump was helpful in making it happen
00:53:35.760
according to the news he moderated his narrative to credit modi you know so crediting uh india so
00:53:45.200
i don't know how much involvement trump had but i like the fact that he tried to take credit
00:53:55.680
because he might have gotten away with it um it is also possible because pakistan is backing trump in
00:54:02.560
this it's also possible that he was very important to the outcome but he doesn't want to embarrass india
00:54:09.760
so trump might be putting his ego on the back burner um because our relationship with india is too
00:54:19.360
important so maybe we don't know what's happening now i was listening to uh john stewart in his podcast
00:54:28.880
and he was uh complaining about trump and he this is what he said um here are his top complaints off the
00:54:37.600
top of his head about trump uh there's the grifting the meme coin the corruption the authoritarian
00:54:45.760
tendencies the military fetishism the overuse of executive orders and the general moral decay
00:54:55.680
how many of those things are even real doesn't that sound like every democrat talking about trump
00:55:02.880
let me read them again none of them seem to have any like evidence it just seems like somebody's fever
00:55:12.160
dream of some monster under the bed so is he grifting and there's a meme coin problem and corruption
00:55:19.600
and authoritarian tendencies and military fetishism overuse of executive orders and general moral decay
00:55:26.560
is any of that real i mean all of that seems like it should be allocated to the department of imaginary affairs
00:55:43.280
that we talk too much about all those things meaning democrats talk too much about all the things
00:55:49.600
he mentioned and they don't talk enough about trump's uh massive incompetence to which i say what massive
00:56:00.880
incompetence according to to who if if you were to ask uh the trump supporters are you getting what you
00:56:12.960
thought you voted for what do you think they would say do you think they would say no we were totally
00:56:19.200
surprised when he closed the border no no republicans think the economy is looking pretty good that the
00:56:28.560
border is closed that trump is resisting about as hard as you could resist getting into foreign wars although
00:56:36.000
we don't know what's going to happen yet but so far he he hasn't put us into the foreign war or at least
00:56:42.880
too much into it so what exactly is all this massive incompetence we're talking about now when uh john
00:56:52.560
stewart mentions that he talks about the you know the uncertainty of tariffs and stuff like that but
00:57:00.400
none of that is going to matter in a year will it do you think a year from now we're going to look back
00:57:07.680
and say oh all that tariff tariff uncertainty that sure took down the economy i don't think so i think
00:57:17.280
we're going to look back and say oh we got better tariff deals or we got better trade deals with eight
00:57:24.640
out of ten of the countries we were dealing with i feel like it's going to take care of itself
00:57:31.440
so watching the uh one of the smartest guys on the left john stewart be totally lost in trump
00:57:43.120
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meanwhile chicago mayor is his first name brandon brandon johnson um
00:58:56.720
he's got some uh he was asked on cnn about uh the massive spending on illegal migrants
00:59:04.080
and he didn't answer the question but he said this about trump um he accused trump of wanting to quote
00:59:17.440
now has anybody noticed that trump wants to eliminate black existence from the country
00:59:26.160
even the cnn um cnn host uh cracked a smile and said he's not really trying to eliminate black existence
00:59:36.960
from the country so even cnn couldn't let that go like no no no that's not happening but it did come
00:59:47.600
after uh brandon mayor johnson had uh said that trump wants to get rid of black history month
00:59:55.920
is that real has trump ever said he wanted to get rid of black history month
01:00:01.840
because that doesn't ring a bell i i don't believe that's real right
01:00:11.760
in the comments tell me is that something you've heard before i've never heard that
01:00:17.360
and it doesn't sound like trump at all so is that just made up so did he just make up the part about
01:00:26.480
trump wanting to get rid of black history month and then he extended that to he wants to eliminate uh
01:00:33.600
black existence from the country that's pretty big stretch
01:00:40.480
pretty big stretch anyway even cnn wouldn't let him get away with that
01:00:46.480
um also in chicago apparently the schools in chicago are
01:00:52.240
i have a lot of vacancies so some of the schools are like half empty now
01:01:01.520
why so i read this story about the chicago schools having way fewer people signed up to be in those
01:01:10.560
schools and i don't remember it saying why does anybody know why why why would the chicago schools be half
01:01:19.040
empty is that because uh people are leaving are people just leaving chicago because the schools are so bad
01:01:29.520
are they relocating or is it because the population of new kids is low
01:01:37.840
is it because of deportations yeah that's that's a good point is it because they were full but
01:01:43.760
the deportations got rid of the the people who were not citizens i don't think that's really happened
01:01:51.120
at a scale so probably not so it's weird that that this was a story in the news and i feel like they left
01:02:00.320
out like why is this happening with other blue cities is it happening with all schools
01:02:09.440
um i'm genuinely curious what would cause this maybe has something to do with school choice but
01:02:19.280
that would be a pretty big impact for a school choice so that doesn't seem real anyway so that's a
01:02:26.640
open question if anybody has the answer to that let me know um according to the national pulse
01:02:35.920
the uh one thing that the top rated u.s cities have in common is no democrats in power
01:02:46.080
so apparently provo utah was declared the most efficient city in the u.s and i guess they used
01:02:52.720
efficient for a stand-in for you know high quality city um as according to a wallet hub study they looked
01:03:02.080
at 148 cities and uh what they found is the ones where there were no democrats in power were the top
01:03:11.040
rated ones and all the ones where democrats were in power were low rated so you might ask yourself
01:03:22.880
is that the only thing they had in common was democrat leadership i don't think it's the only
01:03:35.840
thing they have in common all right um the uh i guess the federal authorities according to the post
01:03:45.520
millennial uh the irs and the fbi and i guess some other federal people are looking to trace the money
01:03:55.520
behind the uh the la anti-ice riots and they say make no mistake we will identify and disrupt financial
01:04:05.760
networks supporting these criminal activities uh that was from the irs now are they criminal
01:04:14.320
i'm still waiting to hear what is the crime is it a crime to fund a protest is it a crime to fund a protest
01:04:25.120
and be secret about it what part exactly is the crime because i don't want to see people locked up because
01:04:33.760
they disagree on politics uh there better be a real crime here i'm guessing there is
01:04:41.280
a crime here but if anybody knows where it is let me know
01:04:47.760
in uh good news for ai the university of south wales new south wales
01:04:54.240
um they've got an emergency room where they're using ai to translate because apparently a very
01:05:00.240
large percentage of the population speaks uh different languages so imagine how many lives you
01:05:08.160
could save if your emergency room had a translator an ai translator that was good for everybody
01:05:19.200
you're really going to save some lives so this is one of those ai home runs where it's all good and no bad
01:05:26.480
it's just translating and people who have specific you know medical problems can communicate them well all good
01:05:38.000
according to uh the university of missouri eric stan is writing about this uh they did a study and they
01:05:46.720
found that hope is a key to a meaningful life hope does that make sense to you does that pass your sniff test
01:05:57.440
that people who have the most hope have the most meaningful lives it does for me yeah that that totally uh tracks
01:06:06.960
and i would also argue uh as nate silver points out in on x today he did some uh did some analysis
01:06:18.640
and he found out that the things that make people happy besides uh age and and religiosity
01:06:27.120
so apparently the older you are the happier you are young people are not that happy and the more religious
01:06:32.960
you are the happier you are but those things pale in comparison says nate silver when compared to the
01:06:41.440
liberal conservative gap and happiness so nate silver who is not he's not a conservative um is saying as
01:06:52.160
strongly as possible that conservatives are happier and that the data is just really clear on that
01:06:58.800
so put the two studies together one is that conservatives are happier and the other is that people who have
01:07:10.640
hope have more meaningful lives which almost certainly would make you happier do those fit i think they fit
01:07:20.240
i feel like conservatives are hope related in their world view so you know if i uh work hard and go to school
01:07:32.560
and show up on time for my job it's because i hope that those efforts will be rewarded um from my from my
01:07:44.480
youngest days i hoped that i would be successful enough to do the things that i wanted in life
01:07:53.520
so i would say i'm very very hope um related and always have been now i also uh you know lean conservative
01:08:05.360
at least in terms of who i who i choose to back politically
01:08:09.120
so it does seem to me that conservatives have more hope does that feel right to you
01:08:18.080
you know there's no science that connects those two specifically but feels like it makes sense to me
01:08:24.880
so that ladies and gentlemen is all i needed to say today uh i'm going to say a few words privately to
01:08:32.560
the folks on locals and we'll uh watch what happens in israel and iran today because i think this is
01:08:41.920
the part of the week when things are going to heat up a little bit now you might remember one of my
01:08:47.600
predictions was that uh israel's estimate that they could be done with the operation in two weeks
01:08:54.080
weeks was too short and that it won't be two weeks do you believe me yet so it's been
01:09:03.920
a little over one week does it look like we're less than one week away from
01:09:10.080
israel being done with whatever they needed to do in iran doesn't look like it to me to me it looks like
01:09:17.120
we're talking at least weeks at least but we'll see we'll keep an eye on it all right uh everybody
01:09:26.640
thanks for joining i'm going to talk to the locals people privately and the rest of you
01:09:33.680
thanks so much for joining in 30 seconds i'll be private