Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2873 CWSA 06⧸19⧸25

00:00:00.000 hello everybody let's uh well happy juneteenth first of all

00:00:09.200 and let's get our comments up and working and then we've got something come on there we go

00:00:18.880 uh i would ask you on locals to ask yourself if i really want to see that picture again

00:00:38.480 i do not i do not ever want to see that picture again or any version of it all right

00:00:49.200 welcome to coffee with scott adams the best thing that ever happened to you

00:00:54.720 if you'd like to see if you could take this experience up to levels that no one can even

00:01:01.200 understand with their tiny shiny human brains all you need for that is a cup or mug or glass

00:01:08.240 a tank or chalice of stein a canteen jug or flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite

00:01:14.640 liquid i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine ahead of

00:01:21.520 the day the thing that makes everything better it's called the that's right the simultaneous sip

00:01:28.000 and it happens now

00:01:37.360 so good oh my god so good well i warned you this was gonna happen

00:01:43.600 and now it's reality according to cbs morning show saturday morning show uh there's a man who

00:01:53.680 proposed to his ai chat bot girlfriend and was so happy when she said yes um that he cried

00:02:02.960 aww uh his name is chris smith and believe it or not he was willing to he was willing to go public with

00:02:12.480 this amazingly and he named his he named his ai girlfriend soul and he gave up on all other search

00:02:23.440 engines to stay committed to her uh now here's the fun part so he's gonna marry an ai uh but it turns out 0.85

00:02:36.080 he has a two-year-old child and lives with his partner who says she feels like she is not doing

00:02:43.920 something right if he feels like he needs an ai girlfriend to which i say yeah that have you tried

00:02:56.240 being nice to him because i'm pretty sure the ai girlfriend is starting from you know a behind situation 1.00

00:03:07.120 and if if you're so mean to your boyfriend they decides he'd rather have a he'd rather marry an ai

00:03:16.400 yeah you you might be doing something wrong

00:03:21.680 just maybe

00:03:24.640 well according to uh elon musk uh we might be only a year away from ai super intelligence

00:03:34.240 now that would be defined as uh a digital super intelligence would be something that's

00:03:42.240 smarter than any human at anything do you think that's a year away well i throw down my challenge

00:03:52.400 i do not believe that the super intelligence will be able to do humor i believe that humor might be the

00:04:01.200 last thing that an ai could master if it does at all now i don't know if super intelligence

00:04:09.440 is synonymous with um the general intelligence that everybody's aiming for so maybe it's an llm version

00:04:18.800 where i can just do ordinary things better but it can't reason i don't know we'll see in one year

00:04:26.480 here well according to cnn uh rfk jr wants to get rid of drug ads on tv which would basically put news

00:04:41.040 models and a business people like cnn and maybe fox news and some others and i'm gonna say again we

00:04:51.280 don't know what happens if the mainstream news goes on the business what would happen to all the senior citizens

00:05:00.560 what would they watch or would some billionaire

00:05:05.360 buy each of the networks and just run it at a loss sort of like the jeff bezos washington post model

00:05:14.000 that might be what happens so if i had to guess i think the brand cnn and msnbc will probably live on

00:05:26.480 but who knows who owns it or how they make money so that that could get interesting well according to fox news

00:05:35.760 um there was a uh a fellow under the joe biden administration who was associated with usa id

00:05:47.440 and there was an 800 million dollar contract awarded to a known con man

00:05:54.960 who was asked to do kamala harris's job of fighting the root causes of irregular migration 1.00

00:06:01.600 so apparently four men including a government contracting officer for the usa id and three

00:06:11.840 owners and presidents of companies have pled guilty for their their role in a decades-long bribery scheme

00:06:21.120 so i think the bribery scheme is that if you bribe somebody enough they will give you

00:06:28.560 millions of dollars in contracts for doing very little work now here's what i've been telling you for years

00:06:40.080 for years i've been saying that in any situation where it's possible to have corruption it always happens

00:06:50.640 so all you need for corruption is a lot of money involved a lot of complexity

00:06:56.320 so complexity a lot of money a lot of people involved and then time if you have all of those things you

00:07:07.520 know on day one it might not be corrupt but if you keep adding people to it and you add complexity

00:07:15.360 and nobody knows exactly where the money's going or why your odds of your odds of some corruption

00:07:24.400 are a hundred percent it'll happen every single time you don't even have to ask every single time

00:07:32.080 now again if if you don't find the corruption it's either because it did a good job of hiding

00:07:39.600 or because the situation is too new but eventually it's going to be corrupt so all the usa id stuff all the ngos

00:07:52.160 yeah pretty corrupt well some people are making the connection between the usa id being unfunded

00:08:02.240 uh and the fact that the news is telling us that the democratic national committee is out of cash do you

00:08:12.000 think do you think those stories are related do you think that the uh democrats were siphoning off

00:08:21.040 money from usa id into the democrat party well i don't know about that so i don't have any evidence that

00:08:30.560 that that is the case but uh the dnc says there's a big drop in big donations now that doesn't surprise me

00:08:40.720 is anybody surprised that the democrats are not attracting as many donations as they used to

00:08:49.040 maybe it has to do with losing everything all the time

00:08:52.320 maybe it has something to do with uh being on the 20 side of every 80 20 issue

00:09:02.160 maybe as something to do with you know david hogg and ken martin and you know not exactly exciting anybody

00:09:10.800 or maybe it has to do with having no national leader who seems worthy of funding i feel like that's the big one

00:09:18.960 so i wouldn't worry too much for the democrats uh until they get a nominee if they find a nominee for

00:09:28.240 president for 2028 um and then they don't get any any donations well then they're in trouble

00:09:37.360 but my guess is as soon as they're happy with their nominee that the money will pour in just a guess

00:09:44.880 when i found out my friend got a great deal on a wool coat from winners i started wondering is every

00:09:51.200 fabulous item i see from winners like that woman over there with the designer jeans are those from 1.00

00:09:56.960 winners ooh or those beautiful gold earrings did she pay full price or that leather tote or that cashmere 1.00

00:10:03.120 sweater or those knee-high boots that dress that jacket those shoes is anyone paying full price for

00:10:09.760 anything stop wondering start winning winners find fabulous for less well the supreme court um you

00:10:18.880 probably heard has upheld a tennessee ban on trans um surgery or gender affirming medical treatments for

00:10:29.600 transgender minors and it upheld it by six to three now clay travis 0.98

00:10:39.120 has a rather severe opinion about this and i'm not going to say that i totally agree with it because

00:10:47.680 it's a little anecdotal but um it's worthy worthy of being surfaced so here's what clay travis says about

00:10:56.560 the supreme court upholding the tennessee ban on minors getting trans processes um he says there are

00:11:08.320 seven parents on the supreme court and of nine and they voted the parents voted six to one against

00:11:16.560 minor children being permitted to have surgery and then he says two childless women

00:11:22.480 sotomayor and kagan voted two to nothing to permit it and then he says the democrat party to a large degree

00:11:32.320 now enacts the political desires of childless women 0.76

00:11:38.240 well i'm not sure you could make that general assessment from this one situation but if you see that

00:11:47.440 pattern repeating itself then we might might take a second look at it it's a little bit early um i

00:11:56.640 definitely think the democrat party is a single woman dominated party but i don't know if this is you know

00:12:06.880 this might be a special case i'm not sure that this is telling you that

00:12:10.400 all right all right so according to grok the majority of the court was focused on states rights

00:12:19.680 saying that the states had a right to regulate um whether the children get those treatments

00:12:26.640 and the two dissenters argue that the law discriminates based on sex and transgender status

00:12:36.000 so that does sound like a single woman kind of an opinion doesn't it anyway 0.97

00:12:43.760 um there is news that the economy is doing well um apparently the blue collar wage growth

00:12:53.200 was up 1.7 percent in since trump got into office which is considered higher than other presidents

00:13:02.640 in the same period but i don't know if that one data point is really telling us much but inflation

00:13:10.320 appears to be under control and jobs look good

00:13:14.720 if we were to compare that to biden's performance um did you see a news item i think it was yesterday

00:13:23.760 that said that the entire 400 000 jobs that biden claimed to have created

00:13:29.120 were all fake like all of them apparently if you look at non-government jobs it was minus a thousand

00:13:40.800 so how many of you remember when i had a debate with uh michael lee and black and i had him as a guest

00:13:49.680 and before i realized he was not you know debating me in good faith he was just sort of trying to be

00:13:56.640 difficult um he questioned me when i said that the biden employment numbers tended to be revised downward

00:14:07.360 and he won the debate uh at least that part of it because i looked into it and sure enough it was not

00:14:15.360 true it was not true that every single time it got uh lowered when it was revised a number of times it was

00:14:25.280 but not every time so i i kind of conceded that point boy i should not have conceded that point

00:14:34.640 because if you look at the entire picture it looks like it was all fake

00:14:40.960 now what does that tell you about the data under the trump administration does that mean that the trump

00:14:49.200 economic numbers are all accurate i don't know well i don't know i don't know how these numbers are

00:14:56.160 cooked up or who does it but uh i guess the caution is don't trust the government

00:15:06.240 when it gives you any statistics anyway um james carville was making some news he was talking about his

00:15:14.640 friend tucker carlson so the first surprise for some of you is that uh tucker carlson and james carville

00:15:23.280 have been friends for years now tucker often says that he interacts and his friends with lots of people

00:15:32.320 who were on the polar opposite side of politics and i guess this would be one example

00:15:38.640 uh but uh they were talking about uh the recent podcast where tucker carlson was talking to ted cruz

00:15:49.600 um and talking about the israel iran situation and i gotta say you know i've had a mostly positive

00:15:58.720 opinion of ted cruz you know just as a senator and i thought you know if he became president

00:16:06.640 that wouldn't be terrible i thought to myself but uh he may have taken himself out of competition

00:16:14.400 forever being president by his answers to tucker now i don't know what he's thinking

00:16:22.880 or what his internal mental processes are but what he said out loud is really looking like a problem

00:16:35.680 um he said that uh um what do you say he said that when he came into office he wanted to be the most uh

00:16:45.040 pro-israel um senator ever i'm paraphrasing but that's it and i thought to myself that's really not

00:16:55.520 something you want to say at the moment it would be perfectly okay to say you know that you're on israel's

00:17:02.640 side and you support israel but the way he said it sounded almost like israel was his first priority

00:17:12.160 now again i don't know what he's thinking and i'm not saying that's his mental process

00:17:18.960 but that's the way it came out and then he denied that aipac was influencing congress very much

00:17:27.280 he acted like they didn't have much influence which flies in the face of everything that you and i

00:17:34.160 probably think is true because they they certainly put a lot of effort into doing what ted cruz says is

00:17:42.160 nothing so i'm not sure i believe that they have you know no real influence over congress

00:17:49.680 and uh and then he said that he takes the money from apac but really you have to understand that

00:17:58.480 it's americans making small donations so it's not so much that israel or some israel

00:18:06.640 group is giving him money but rather it's americans making small donations now again

00:18:12.800 that might be technically true and we don't know what he's thinking but it just sounds like an excuse

00:18:22.880 for doing what apac wants and for being pro-israel in all situations so you know i'm uh

00:18:34.400 well i'll leave myself out of it

00:18:36.480 um but according to uh james carville talker carlson has been consistent with his anti-war opinions

00:18:46.640 for a long time he says it's uh the same thing that talker is saying now is what he would have said in

00:18:54.080 the green room in 2002 so that's interesting that carville has given uh talker sort of cover

00:19:02.800 you know for being consistent um but as i've said um tucker has what i call a half opinion which is

00:19:14.640 not a full opinion it's just half an opinion his half an opinion is that if we get involved in these

00:19:22.400 you know foreign wars it it almost always goes bad so it's a bad idea to do it so apparently he called

00:19:32.480 trump and uh at one point he must have apologized to trump for going a little hard at him and trump

00:19:40.640 was talking about that conversation and trump said i did ask tucker are you okay with nuclear weapons

00:19:49.200 being in the hands of iran and he didn't like that i said if it's okay with you then you and i have a

00:19:56.000 a half a difference now that's where trump just um called out tucker for the half opinion the half

00:20:05.120 opinion is what we all know which is if you get involved in a foreign war it might not go well and if you

00:20:14.400 look at the history the history suggests it usually doesn't go well if not every single time it doesn't

00:20:21.520 go well that part we all understand but trump asked the totally reasonable question are you okay with the

00:20:31.840 alternative that iran has a nuclear weapon and it doesn't sound like trump got a answer from tucker

00:20:45.040 and that's why i call it a half opinion because it seems to just leave out half of the half of the

00:20:53.760 uh risk reward analysis um and uh then trump says uh whether you have to fight or not you can't

00:21:03.600 allow iran the entire you know a weapon or the entire world will blow up claudia was leaving for 0.99

00:21:09.840 her pickleball tournament i've been visualizing my match all week she was so focused on visualizing

00:21:15.200 that she didn't see the column behind her car on her backhand side good thing claudia's with intact 1.00

00:21:21.440 the insurer with the largest network of auto service centers in the country everything was taken care

00:21:26.160 of under one roof and she was on her way in a rental car in no time i made it to my tournament 1.00

00:21:31.520 and lost in the first round but you got there on time intact insurance your auto service ace certain

00:21:37.760 conditions apply all right what is the most predictable thing that could happen in the israel

00:21:46.640 um iran war if you had to if you had to guess what is the most likely thing that will be reported in

00:21:56.720 the news what would it be well uh my vote for the most likely thing that would be in the news

00:22:04.640 is that one of the sides would um hit a hospital with a missile sure enough

00:22:14.560 you can always depend on that story now i don't know why i'm a little bit puzzled because it's hard

00:22:23.520 for me to imagine um any side in a conflict who thinks it's a good idea to bomb the hospital on the other

00:22:31.920 side because obviously that's not going to help your own team love you more you know there it's not

00:22:40.160 like hamas or or iran you know it's not like the citizens were saying yes we bombed that hospital

00:22:49.440 so why would anybody do it but there's always a hospital that gets bombed

00:22:55.360 um now in the case of uh hamas and gaza the explanation was that the hospital you know was

00:23:04.560 a cover for some tunnels beneath that there were a hamas stronghold but there's always a reason

00:23:12.400 there's always a reason so the one thing you can always count on is that there will be a headline

00:23:17.920 story as there is today um that uh iran um presumably intentionally shot a missile into a hospital

00:23:29.840 now the good news is the hospital was largely empty um and they had already gone to uh you know a lower

00:23:37.280 floor or something to to be safer so it didn't uh have a big death toll but right on schedule

00:23:45.600 there there's there's the weird hospital missile attack now i think iran said they weren't aiming at

00:23:53.760 the hospital but uh i saw trey trey angst yankst say that if it was a missile and they think it was a

00:24:04.000 missile that missiles are not dumb instruments that you aim them at a specific place but does that mean

00:24:12.240 that every missile hits where you aim i don't know so i'm sure the story is real but i'm just puzzled

00:24:22.880 why it's so predictable that early in any conflict and it happened in ukraine too right didn't ukraine

00:24:31.040 have stories of uh you know russia bombed our hospital and again why would they do it intentionally 0.82

00:24:38.800 it it doesn't really make the other side want to give up it it would be a weird thing to do

00:24:46.480 intentionally but the news always says it's intentional so maybe there's something i don't

00:24:52.000 know about military strategy in hospitals according to uh the x account breaking 9-1-1 there's a bit of a

00:25:03.840 run on the banks in iran maybe not all of them but at least one bank meli bank uh allegedly there's a

00:25:12.320 run and people are requesting their money and they can't get it out it might have something to do with

00:25:18.880 israeli cyber attacks because israel's going after the money centers and who knows what else

00:25:25.760 so watch out for the banking situation in iran and um we also have to assume that iran is looking to

00:25:40.000 um pay back both israel and america for any cyber attacks so we're gonna find out i think very soon

00:25:49.040 how much capability iran has for cyber attacks because if they don't if they don't unleash one on

00:25:56.720 either israel or the united states that doesn't take down a power grid or a bank or something

00:26:03.680 i would feel like they don't have much capability because surely they would try right could there be any

00:26:12.080 situation where iran said oh we have this cyber attack capability and we're being cyber attacked

00:26:21.440 but we're not going to do it back that doesn't seem likely right so if a few weeks go by and there's no

00:26:31.280 obvious iranian cyber attack um i would conclude that maybe they didn't have that much capability in the

00:26:40.080 first place but we'll find out if the lights go out during the show well then i guess they had that

00:26:48.000 capability uh trump was talking about the situation over there and he said and i quote they're totally

00:26:58.320 defenseless they have no air defense whatsoever totally captured we've totally captured the air

00:27:05.920 we why is he saying we um did did american aircraft do something in the air what exactly did america do that

00:27:20.800 he's saying we and isn't that opposite of his strategy his strategy is to try to stay somewhat uninvolved

00:27:32.000 while obviously being supportive in some support kind of ways is that a mistake when he said we've

00:27:41.040 totally captured the air he's talking like the american military and the israeli military are basically

00:27:48.800 the same thing is that just a mistake because it sounds like one sounds like uh maybe he misspoke

00:27:57.440 um but that's not ideal all right according to axios um trump is said to have doubts about whether the uh

00:28:11.680 those bunker busters that u.s has would actually be able to do the job who does that sound like

00:28:18.400 who is the one other person who told you i'm not so sure these bunker busters can get it done me i told

00:28:30.800 you that yesterday right i said if they're talking about maybe using as many as six bunker busters per per

00:28:39.920 site which they were that that's a pretty strong signal that they don't know if they'll work

00:28:48.640 so trump is asking exactly the right questions according to axios he he was asking the experts

00:28:56.080 are you sure are you sure this would work so allegedly he has already greenlit a battle plan

00:29:06.240 but he is not greenlit doing it so he's approved he's approved that if there's a battle plan that

00:29:13.920 the u.s is involved in what it would look like but he is not given the go-ahead to do it as far as we know

00:29:22.480 and then furthermore um the israeli officials believe that the u.s will eventually join the war

00:29:32.400 uh i guess that's axios as well and uh uh israel also claims that if the u.s doesn't use the bunker

00:29:46.080 bombs or they don't work that israel could get the job done on the ground which i assume means special

00:29:53.760 forces put on the ground and then they try to take out the entryway and try to get in i don't know but

00:30:03.040 um if we don't know for sure or let's say trump cannot be convinced that the bunker busters would

00:30:12.960 work for sure what it would do is make us part of the war for sure so do you think trump would trade

00:30:22.480 being definitely part of the offensive war without knowing it would work

00:30:28.960 when he's got the option at least according to the israelis of letting them take a little bit more risk

00:30:36.000 because there would be people on the ground probably probably lives lost

00:30:42.000 and they say they could get it done on the ground why would trump ever ever say yes

00:30:50.560 to the bunker busters while there's somebody smart in israel saying oh we could get this done without 0.95

00:30:57.040 them doesn't that kind of tell you where it's heading to me it looks like trump is putting the

00:31:05.840 maximum amount of psychological pressure on iran acting like you know we'll be in this war any minute and

00:31:13.920 there's nothing they can do about it at the same time he really doesn't want to be in this war

00:31:20.720 so as long as our participation is not a hundred percent likely to work i don't know what the

00:31:27.360 percentage would be but you know nobody could say it's a hundred percent and israel is saying we can do

00:31:34.240 it on the ground why in the world would he ever authorize the bunker busters wouldn't you let or

00:31:43.040 wouldn't you let israel try to do it on the ground and if it doesn't work well you still have you know

00:31:50.400 you can make the decision later so from a decision making risk reward um perspective uh it seems to me

00:32:03.600 that trump has a plan now he might not think of it that way but would it ever make sense for him to

00:32:11.920 green light a maybe and bring us into the war but it would make sense if israel couldn't get it done

00:32:20.640 on the ground well then it would start making sense like you got to do something because you can't let it

00:32:27.520 remain so we'll see um uh matt gates had a former cia hacker guy say that america will uh he had him as

00:32:42.960 a guest and he says that america will face a cyber attack in the next 30 days why would it take 30 days

00:32:51.200 it seems to me that the minute those bunker busters go off that they would cyber attack us

00:33:00.720 right away why would they wait i don't know i'm chris hadfield i'm an astronaut an author a citizen

00:33:08.480 of planet earth join me for a six-part journey into the systems that power the world real conversations

00:33:15.600 with real people who are shaping the future of energy no politics no empty talk just solutions

00:33:23.440 focused conversations on the challenges we must overcome and the possibilities that lie ahead this

00:33:30.320 is on energy listen wherever you get your podcasts um israel is saying that uh the trick they used to get

00:33:40.080 all those uh generals in one place to blow them up um i guess that was mostly the air force generals

00:33:46.960 in iran uh they said they used a quote fake phone call and got 20 members of the the senior military

00:33:57.040 staff for the air force in iran to go to the same bunker and then they blew up the bunker

00:34:02.800 now yesterday i asked the question did they use a deep fake ai voice because the way i would have done

00:34:14.000 it is i would have taken out whatever their secure lines of communication are so that they had to use

00:34:20.960 unsecure lines and then i would have used a ai fake voice for somebody that they would all recognize

00:34:30.160 and i would leave them all voicemails to say you know come to this bunker at a certain time

00:34:36.880 and they would be too afraid not to come because they think if i don't show up you know my own

00:34:44.320 my own uh boss is going to be pretty mad so israel is not giving us details they only call it a fake phone

00:34:53.200 call but i sure wonder if that fake phone call used ai i don't think they would necessarily mention that

00:35:02.000 if it did so that's an open question um there's a cnn poll on u.s opinion about uh whether iran should

00:35:14.960 be allowed to have nuclear weapons and according to the cnn's poll 83 of republicans

00:35:22.800 and 79 percent of democrats oppose iran obtaining nuclear weapons and nearly seven in ten americans

00:35:32.080 support us airstrikes to stop iran's nuclear ambitions so there it is again in 80 20. so apparently

00:35:42.320 if trump decided to do airstrikes and have the americans involved with their bunker busters

00:35:50.320 it would be popular with eight out of ten americans

00:35:56.480 once again the republicans would be on the 80 80 side of the 80 20. but uh that doesn't mean

00:36:04.480 it will go right i mean it doesn't mean it's a good idea but at least america would be somewhat unified

00:36:14.080 victor davis hansen um is talking about how um

00:36:19.200 how it was unthinkable even a few years ago that israel could have so dominated iran militarily

00:36:28.560 and that iran would be on the brink of you know losing all of their proxies

00:36:33.360 uh all of their nuclear program all of their missiles 0.56

00:36:39.440 and um he's also talking about uh he says uh we're going to see things that we haven't seen

00:36:48.640 in our lifetime in the middle east and it could turn out very bad yes it could it could turn out

00:36:56.160 very very bad um but it could also be revolutionary he points out and remake the map of the entire region

00:37:06.880 but um i wouldn't bet on it looks like it'd be a bad bet to assume things are going to go great

00:37:13.680 um according to uh i think this was on msnbc u.s intelligence on monday told the u.s senate that it

00:37:27.520 still sees no evidence that iran is trying to create nuclear weapons now is that the same intelligence

00:37:34.720 people who told us that iraq definitely had uh nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction

00:37:41.840 why would we trust them because they're not saying that iran's not doing it they're saying that

00:37:51.600 they see no evidence

00:37:55.040 well i see no evidence either so does that mean it's not happening i don't know do you do you trust our

00:38:03.840 intelligence people to be so accurate that if they say there's no evidence that we found

00:38:10.000 that that means it's not happening um trump says that iran was very close to creating nuclear weapons

00:38:19.600 um so i asked grok about it and grok says that if you look at iran's uh uranium enrichment plans

00:38:30.640 they seem to be enriching the uranium way beyond the point where they would need it for domestic reasons

00:38:37.360 uh you know like medical reasons uh you know like medical reasons or other reasons that you use

00:38:41.840 that material and that uh probably they were pursuing what it what would be called a threshold capability

00:38:52.720 meaning that it might be true that iran had no intention of making a nuclear weapon but it might also be

00:39:00.880 true that they want you to think that they could at any minute so the way to you know split that baby

00:39:10.080 is to say we've enriched our uranium to such a point that if we wanted to if we wanted to we can make a

00:39:21.120 weapon any minute now would that give them more leverage in international negotiations and affairs it would

00:39:30.880 yeah it would but um it has the iraq problem do you remember why we were so confused about whether iraq had

00:39:42.160 nuclear weapons or weapons of mass destruction

00:39:46.640 apparently according to grok i had to check it to make sure i was remembering correctly

00:39:52.160 apparently saddam hussein wanted his local rivals and maybe other people to believe he had nuclear

00:40:00.560 weapons because then they would not attack and try to overthrow his regime so it could be

00:40:08.080 that in the iraqi case um pretending to have nuclear weapons is what destroyed iraq because we we

00:40:17.440 acted like well if if they're not denying it and they're not letting us look for ourselves and we've

00:40:25.520 got these reports that they're doing it and saddam is not denying it very hard well maybe we have to

00:40:34.160 treat it like it's real and it looks to me like iran might be making the same problem it's entirely possible

00:40:42.000 that they had zero intention of ever making a nuclear weapon but a hundred percent intention of making

00:40:48.960 people think that they could at any minute if that's what they were doing that was a bad miscalculation

00:40:57.920 because you would have to treat it like it's real even if you thought i think they're bluffing i think

00:41:05.200 they're i think they're i think they just have this threshold strategy where they they want us to think

00:41:11.920 they can do it at any minute well what is israel going to do with that the the only reasonable way

00:41:19.760 to treat that is like it's real and so they are so it's entirely possible that both iraq and iran

00:41:28.800 will be totally destroyed because they pretended to either have or be close to nuclear weapons 0.64

00:41:38.080 that that might actually be what's happening here don't know we will never know probably

00:41:46.800 um i was reading a post from uh joel pollack who's watching carefully the situation in israel and he

00:41:56.800 points out that uh israel's army radio says that israeli air force is still attacking targets in iran at

00:42:04.800 dawn and doing it freely so in other words they're not even waiting for cover of darkness uh and that's

00:42:12.080 how much that that's how much control they have over there uh and they're even going after the iraq

00:42:19.200 a-r-a-k nuclear facility because i think that is part of what makes them you know fissile material or

00:42:29.600 something there's some connection between that that facility and making bombs i think uh meanwhile um iran

00:42:40.320 managed to fire some missiles but uh not that many maybe a few dozen um now the uh the news is telling

00:42:52.000 us that trump has approved a battle plan but has not greenlit it does that sound real to you

00:43:01.200 that sounds real to me because it seems to me that by now um the military would have given trump their

00:43:08.160 best options and said if we do it we would do it this way and then trump would have to approve

00:43:15.840 that if we do it that is the way we would do it but the question of do we do it would still be open

00:43:24.720 and like i said it seems to me that um trump would be waiting to see if israel could get the job done on

00:43:32.640 the ground uh before we commit to major you know offensive um contribution to the war um here are

00:43:43.520 some tips that tell you where trump's mind is i don't think he would use the phrase unconditional

00:43:51.200 surrender if he if he even wanted to negotiate with iran would you agree you would never say

00:44:01.760 we want unconditional surrender if you also believe that you would someday be at a table negotiating which

00:44:09.680 way it goes you just wouldn't use that phrase so to me that's a big red flag that says that trump

00:44:18.160 has decided that this will end militarily but may not have decided whether the u.s is going to be part

00:44:25.360 of that military action or not so that's where i think he is just you know i can't read his mind

00:44:35.120 um but of course we're putting all of our military assets in place and we've got lots of refueling

00:44:41.360 planes in case we need to get a bomber all the way over there from where it is

00:44:48.640 so that's all part of the the psychological pressure that may also be real i mean we would

00:44:55.360 do those things if we were planning to attack but we would do those things if we wanted them to think

00:45:01.680 we're planning to attack so trump has what i call a kobayashi maru situation those of you who are star

00:45:11.840 trek fans recognize that reference kobayashi maru if you're not familiar it comes from the original star

00:45:21.280 trek where captain kirk was a cadet and he was doing uh doing a simulation where he was pretending to be

00:45:31.120 the captain of a starship and uh he would run into this impossible situation which had no way to win

00:45:40.880 so the cadets didn't know there was no way to win they just knew that nobody had won

00:45:46.400 um apparently captain kirk figured out that it was designed so that nobody could ever win and he

00:45:55.840 um somehow reprogrammed it so that there was a way to win so in other words he cheated he he found the

00:46:04.400 solution that wasn't even on the list of solutions now it seems to me that that's where trump is

00:46:12.240 he's got a kobayashi maru which is if he gets involved it's bad and if he doesn't get involved

00:46:19.520 it's bad but here is his options if uh if israel and trump do not eliminate the iranian missile and

00:46:28.800 nuclear capacities then almost everybody will think that's a giant mistake would you agree if we got this

00:46:37.760 far and i'm saying we um if israel got this far and somehow had to give up and say all right we can't

00:46:45.760 get your nuclear stuff it's too hard everybody would say that's a giant mistake because they would just

00:46:52.400 reconstitute their threat and be more angry than they were before so you can't really do that can't really

00:47:00.720 walk away um if israel were to take out the top leadership in iran uh we think that would lead to

00:47:10.960 chaos sort of like the iraq or libya model and would just be the show of all shows so that's not really

00:47:18.960 a good option and that's probably the reason that the supreme leader is still alive as far as we know

00:47:25.280 um so if the and if they allow the iranian leadership to survive then even if we destroy

00:47:39.680 we again it's so hard not to use that word so even if the iranian nuclear facilities and missile

00:47:46.480 production are completely destroyed if the original and existing leadership survives

00:47:53.760 what are they going to do as soon as the the shooting stops they're just going to reconstitute

00:48:01.680 those things as fast as they can and they would have the know-how and probably get some help from

00:48:08.240 i don't know china um so that wouldn't work so you can't take out the leadership but you also can't

00:48:17.200 let them survive those are both losing plays if uh if israel finishes the job without us 0.56

00:48:26.160 um then do you think iran is going to say oh the usa was not really part of this action so we won't be

00:48:34.080 mad at them no i think even if even if trump um plays it perfectly and allows the israelis to go in

00:48:44.240 on the ground and do everything without any without any bunker busters iran is still going to you know

00:48:51.120 treat the united states like we were a co-combatant so it's not like they're going to be um fooled by that

00:48:59.760 so that's not ideal and if iran were to make an unexpected offer tomorrow or today in which they'd say

00:49:09.760 all right all right all right we give up uh we will get rid of all of our missiles and all of our 0.92

00:49:15.120 nuclear stuff you know just let us let us negotiate this well neither israel nor the united states would

00:49:23.760 believe them so that would be sort of a non-starter so those are all the um the obvious paths

00:49:33.360 and they're all bad every path is bad that's the kobayashi maru there's no way to win so if trump

00:49:44.000 finds a way to make this work it will be a captain kirk situation where where when it's done we say to

00:49:52.880 ourselves oh i didn't even realize that was an option but if he goes down one of the obvious paths

00:50:01.280 they all look bad they all look like losing paths in the long run so we'll see what he does um i do

00:50:10.560 have some hope that if anybody could captain kirk the situation it would be trump yeah he's the only

00:50:20.960 probably the only politician i could even imagine who could come up with a way to solve this that was

00:50:27.680 not on the list and we'd say oh well i didn't even imagine that solution so that would be the best

00:50:36.080 case scenario we'll see i saw a post from general flynn um in which he said uh uh if the if israel

00:50:48.000 achieves total victory and the iranian regime collapses and a new pro-western iranian leader

00:50:54.400 emerges which he says are all very achievable under the current conditions to which i say

00:51:02.240 is that really an option is it really an option to replace the current regime with a pro-western

00:51:11.600 leader i don't think that's an option because it's not like the it's not like the uh

00:51:19.120 um the population of iran is on israel's side or even america's side they like america apparently

00:51:28.800 or they like the west but they're under attack their stuff is blowing up you know that they know

00:51:36.160 people were being killed so no i don't think iran is in the mood to install a pro-western puppet

00:51:45.920 um i feel like that's just a little bit too much optimism how many of you think that would work

00:51:54.640 i i think a a pro-western iranian leader going into that position i feel like they would be assassinated in

00:52:02.880 10 minutes because the there would just be so many people left in the government who would say you

00:52:10.320 can't put a puppet in here you know that's the same as total surrender so i really don't see the option

00:52:18.080 of a pro-western leader being installed it just feels like that wouldn't last it'd be like a 10 minute

00:52:25.200 solution i don't know well in other news um you remember when pakistan and india were looking like

00:52:34.080 they were going to war and then they stood down and trump took the credit for helping them uh you know

00:52:44.960 essentially mediating the situation well india is now saying that trump did not mediate the situation

00:52:52.960 and that it was india and pakistan's military who worked down to a ceasefire and then pakistan

00:53:05.200 is disagreeing with india and saying that trump was uh helpful and mediating and even went so far as

00:53:13.360 to suggest they should be nominated for a uh a nobel peace prize so you've got india

00:53:22.880 saying that india did it you've got pakistan saying that trump was helpful in making it happen

00:53:30.880 and you've got trump who i think has

00:53:35.760 according to the news he moderated his narrative to credit modi you know so crediting uh india so

00:53:45.200 i don't know how much involvement trump had but i like the fact that he tried to take credit

00:53:55.680 because he might have gotten away with it um it is also possible because pakistan is backing trump in

00:54:02.560 this it's also possible that he was very important to the outcome but he doesn't want to embarrass india

00:54:09.760 so trump might be putting his ego on the back burner um because our relationship with india is too

00:54:19.360 important so maybe we don't know what's happening now i was listening to uh john stewart in his podcast

00:54:28.880 and he was uh complaining about trump and he this is what he said um here are his top complaints off the

00:54:37.600 top of his head about trump uh there's the grifting the meme coin the corruption the authoritarian

00:54:45.760 tendencies the military fetishism the overuse of executive orders and the general moral decay

00:54:55.680 how many of those things are even real doesn't that sound like every democrat talking about trump

00:55:02.880 let me read them again none of them seem to have any like evidence it just seems like somebody's fever

00:55:12.160 dream of some monster under the bed so is he grifting and there's a meme coin problem and corruption

00:55:19.600 and authoritarian tendencies and military fetishism overuse of executive orders and general moral decay

00:55:26.560 is any of that real i mean all of that seems like it should be allocated to the department of imaginary affairs

00:55:38.240 it all looks imaginary but now his point was

00:55:43.280 that we talk too much about all those things meaning democrats talk too much about all the things

00:55:49.600 he mentioned and they don't talk enough about trump's uh massive incompetence to which i say what massive

00:56:00.880 incompetence according to to who if if you were to ask uh the trump supporters are you getting what you

00:56:12.960 thought you voted for what do you think they would say do you think they would say no we were totally

00:56:19.200 surprised when he closed the border no no republicans think the economy is looking pretty good that the

00:56:28.560 border is closed that trump is resisting about as hard as you could resist getting into foreign wars although

00:56:36.000 we don't know what's going to happen yet but so far he he hasn't put us into the foreign war or at least

00:56:42.880 too much into it so what exactly is all this massive incompetence we're talking about now when uh john

00:56:52.560 stewart mentions that he talks about the you know the uncertainty of tariffs and stuff like that but

00:57:00.400 none of that is going to matter in a year will it do you think a year from now we're going to look back

00:57:07.680 and say oh all that tariff tariff uncertainty that sure took down the economy i don't think so i think

00:57:17.280 we're going to look back and say oh we got better tariff deals or we got better trade deals with eight

00:57:24.640 out of ten of the countries we were dealing with i feel like it's going to take care of itself

00:57:31.440 so watching the uh one of the smartest guys on the left john stewart be totally lost in trump

00:57:43.120 derangement syndrome is kind of interesting ontario the wait is over the gold standard of online casinos

00:57:51.120 has arrived golden nugget online casino is live bringing vegas style excitement and a world-class gaming

00:57:57.280 experience right to your fingertips whether you're a seasoned player or just starting signing up is

00:58:02.640 fast and simple and in just a few clicks you can have access to our exclusive library of the best

00:58:08.160 slots and top-tier table games make the most of your downtime with unbeatable promotions and jackpots

00:58:14.000 that can turn any mundane moment into a golden opportunity at golden nugget online casino take a spin on

00:58:20.480 the slots challenge yourself at the tables or join a live dealer game to feel the thrill of real-time action

00:58:26.320 all from the comfort of your own devices why settle for less when you can go for the gold at golden

00:58:31.920 nugget online casino gambling problem call connects ontario 1-866-531-2600 19 and over physically present

00:58:40.560 in ontario eligibility restrictions apply see golden nugget casino.com for details please play responsibly

00:58:46.560 meanwhile chicago mayor is his first name brandon brandon johnson um

00:58:56.720 he's got some uh he was asked on cnn about uh the massive spending on illegal migrants

00:59:04.080 and he didn't answer the question but he said this about trump um he accused trump of wanting to quote 0.91

00:59:12.000 eliminate black existence from this country 1.00

00:59:17.440 now has anybody noticed that trump wants to eliminate black existence from the country 0.98

00:59:26.160 even the cnn um cnn host uh cracked a smile and said he's not really trying to eliminate black existence 0.59

00:59:36.960 from the country so even cnn couldn't let that go like no no no that's not happening but it did come

00:59:47.600 after uh brandon mayor johnson had uh said that trump wants to get rid of black history month

00:59:55.920 is that real has trump ever said he wanted to get rid of black history month

01:00:01.840 because that doesn't ring a bell i i don't believe that's real right

01:00:11.760 in the comments tell me is that something you've heard before i've never heard that

01:00:17.360 and it doesn't sound like trump at all so is that just made up so did he just make up the part about

01:00:26.480 trump wanting to get rid of black history month and then he extended that to he wants to eliminate uh

01:00:33.600 black existence from the country that's pretty big stretch 1.00

01:00:40.480 pretty big stretch anyway even cnn wouldn't let him get away with that

01:00:46.480 um also in chicago apparently the schools in chicago are

01:00:52.240 i have a lot of vacancies so some of the schools are like half empty now

01:01:01.520 why so i read this story about the chicago schools having way fewer people signed up to be in those

01:01:10.560 schools and i don't remember it saying why does anybody know why why why would the chicago schools be half

01:01:19.040 empty is that because uh people are leaving are people just leaving chicago because the schools are so bad

01:01:29.520 are they relocating or is it because the population of new kids is low

01:01:37.840 is it because of deportations yeah that's that's a good point is it because they were full but

01:01:43.760 the deportations got rid of the the people who were not citizens i don't think that's really happened

01:01:51.120 at a scale so probably not so it's weird that that this was a story in the news and i feel like they left

01:02:00.320 out like why is this happening with other blue cities is it happening with all schools

01:02:09.440 um i'm genuinely curious what would cause this maybe has something to do with school choice but

01:02:19.280 that would be a pretty big impact for a school choice so that doesn't seem real anyway so that's a

01:02:26.640 open question if anybody has the answer to that let me know um according to the national pulse

01:02:35.920 the uh one thing that the top rated u.s cities have in common is no democrats in power

01:02:46.080 so apparently provo utah was declared the most efficient city in the u.s and i guess they used

01:02:52.720 efficient for a stand-in for you know high quality city um as according to a wallet hub study they looked

01:03:02.080 at 148 cities and uh what they found is the ones where there were no democrats in power were the top

01:03:11.040 rated ones and all the ones where democrats were in power were low rated so you might ask yourself

01:03:20.560 is that the only thing that they had in common

01:03:22.880 is that the only thing they had in common was democrat leadership i don't think it's the only

01:03:35.840 thing they have in common all right um the uh i guess the federal authorities according to the post

01:03:45.520 millennial uh the irs and the fbi and i guess some other federal people are looking to trace the money

01:03:55.520 behind the uh the la anti-ice riots and they say make no mistake we will identify and disrupt financial

01:04:05.760 networks supporting these criminal activities uh that was from the irs now are they criminal

01:04:14.320 i'm still waiting to hear what is the crime is it a crime to fund a protest is it a crime to fund a protest

01:04:25.120 and be secret about it what part exactly is the crime because i don't want to see people locked up because

01:04:33.760 they disagree on politics uh there better be a real crime here i'm guessing there is

01:04:41.280 a crime here but if anybody knows where it is let me know

01:04:47.760 in uh good news for ai the university of south wales new south wales

01:04:54.240 um they've got an emergency room where they're using ai to translate because apparently a very

01:05:00.240 large percentage of the population speaks uh different languages so imagine how many lives you

01:05:08.160 could save if your emergency room had a translator an ai translator that was good for everybody

01:05:19.200 you're really going to save some lives so this is one of those ai home runs where it's all good and no bad

01:05:26.480 it's just translating and people who have specific you know medical problems can communicate them well all good

01:05:38.000 according to uh the university of missouri eric stan is writing about this uh they did a study and they

01:05:46.720 found that hope is a key to a meaningful life hope does that make sense to you does that pass your sniff test

01:05:57.440 that people who have the most hope have the most meaningful lives it does for me yeah that that totally uh tracks

01:06:06.960 and i would also argue uh as nate silver points out in on x today he did some uh did some analysis

01:06:18.640 and he found out that the things that make people happy besides uh age and and religiosity

01:06:27.120 so apparently the older you are the happier you are young people are not that happy and the more religious

01:06:32.960 you are the happier you are but those things pale in comparison says nate silver when compared to the

01:06:41.440 liberal conservative gap and happiness so nate silver who is not he's not a conservative um is saying as

01:06:52.160 strongly as possible that conservatives are happier and that the data is just really clear on that

01:06:58.800 so put the two studies together one is that conservatives are happier and the other is that people who have

01:07:10.640 hope have more meaningful lives which almost certainly would make you happier do those fit i think they fit

01:07:20.240 i feel like conservatives are hope related in their world view so you know if i uh work hard and go to school

01:07:32.560 and show up on time for my job it's because i hope that those efforts will be rewarded um from my from my

01:07:44.480 youngest days i hoped that i would be successful enough to do the things that i wanted in life

01:07:53.520 so i would say i'm very very hope um related and always have been now i also uh you know lean conservative

01:08:05.360 at least in terms of who i who i choose to back politically

01:08:09.120 so it does seem to me that conservatives have more hope does that feel right to you

01:08:18.080 you know there's no science that connects those two specifically but feels like it makes sense to me

01:08:24.880 so that ladies and gentlemen is all i needed to say today uh i'm going to say a few words privately to

01:08:32.560 the folks on locals and we'll uh watch what happens in israel and iran today because i think this is

01:08:41.920 the part of the week when things are going to heat up a little bit now you might remember one of my

01:08:47.600 predictions was that uh israel's estimate that they could be done with the operation in two weeks

01:08:54.080 weeks was too short and that it won't be two weeks do you believe me yet so it's been

01:09:03.920 a little over one week does it look like we're less than one week away from

01:09:10.080 israel being done with whatever they needed to do in iran doesn't look like it to me to me it looks like

01:09:17.120 we're talking at least weeks at least but we'll see we'll keep an eye on it all right uh everybody

01:09:26.640 thanks for joining i'm going to talk to the locals people privately and the rest of you

01:09:33.680 thanks so much for joining in 30 seconds i'll be private

01:09:47.120 and i'm going to talk to them yeah

01:09:53.280 yeah

01:09:54.480 yeah

01:10:17.120 Thank you.

01:10:47.120 Thank you.

01:11:17.120 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - June 19, 2025

Episode 2873 CWSA 06⧸19⧸25

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript