Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2874 CWSA 06⧸20⧸25

00:00:00.640 It's all working.

00:00:03.880 Let me check your stocks.

00:00:07.640 A little bit up.

00:00:09.740 Let's see what Tesla's doing. 1.00

00:00:13.420 Tesla is a little bit up.

00:00:16.400 All right.

00:00:18.440 And looks like we're going to have a good weekend.

00:00:23.940 That's my prediction.

00:00:26.180 Let's get our comments working here.

00:00:28.520 There we go.

00:00:30.000 Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the highlight of human civilization.

00:00:48.200 It's called Coffee with Scott Adams, and you've never had a better time.

00:00:52.340 But if you'd like to try to take this experience up to levels that no one can even understand,

00:01:00.000 with their tiny, shiny human brains, all you need for that, is a cup or a mug or a glass,

00:01:08.020 a tanker and chalice or a stein, a canteen jug or a flask of a vessel of any kind.

00:01:13.300 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:01:15.900 I like coffee.

00:01:17.680 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the show for me at the end of the day.

00:01:21.260 The thing that makes everything, the thing that makes everything better.

00:01:22.980 It's called, that's right, the simultaneous sip.

00:01:28.280 Go.

00:01:32.860 All right.

00:01:34.000 Paul, I see the real one.

00:01:36.800 Don't try that fake one with me again.

00:01:45.180 All right.

00:01:45.980 What's going on?

00:01:47.420 I find that the first part of the news is always something about Elon Musk.

00:01:54.760 Is there even one day that guy can go without making news?

00:02:01.300 It's impossible.

00:02:03.120 But apparently on Sunday, this Sunday in Austin, Texas, will be the launch of the Tesla RoboTaxi.

00:02:13.280 So the no driver, self-driving taxi in Austin.

00:02:18.760 And I saw a picture of somebody in one, and they were sitting in the front.

00:02:25.160 Would you sit in the front of a RoboTaxi in the front seat?

00:02:33.020 Or would you just sit in the back in case something goes wrong?

00:02:38.020 I feel like I would sit in the back seat, if that's an option.

00:02:42.840 I assume it is.

00:02:44.420 Wouldn't you?

00:02:45.780 You know, just a little bit safer?

00:02:48.760 At least for a while.

00:02:51.600 Now, I get that the self-driving RoboTaxis will be safer than a human-driven automobile.

00:03:00.000 But even with a human, I don't feel comfortable in the passenger side of the front seat.

00:03:06.360 I always think, can I trust this human?

00:03:10.400 So I'd probably sit in the back.

00:03:12.300 Well, according to the ex-CEO, which is not someone who used to be a CEO, but rather the CEO of the company called X.

00:03:26.360 So Linda is saying that users will soon be able to trade stocks on X and make investments and send tips and split bills and maybe even buy merch, all without leaving the app.

00:03:44.560 And they're going to call it X money.

00:03:48.200 So it'll be a peer-to-peer payment system.

00:03:51.540 Now, here's the fun part.

00:03:53.580 If X becomes the everything account, isn't X an internet within the internet?

00:04:04.000 Because I ask myself, what do I do all day on the internet that I could not do completely with an X?

00:04:13.000 I use AI.

00:04:15.660 All right, well, that's built into X.

00:04:18.900 I look at the news, but all the links and the analysis are on X.

00:04:26.080 So the only other thing I do is investments and send money digitally.

00:04:33.540 That's the only other stuff I do.

00:04:35.880 So if I could do all of that on X, I would be within an internet that was within an internet.

00:04:45.480 And do you know how much power that would give Elon Musk if you had an internet within the internet and you never left it?

00:04:56.980 You would be in the bubble of all bubbles.

00:05:01.000 Now, I get that X has different points of view, but I don't really see them.

00:05:08.940 Do you?

00:05:09.820 I could spend the entire day on X and never see a competing point of view.

00:05:17.780 All I would see is the people that I most like to see.

00:05:23.560 The only times I see competing points of view is when they're being mocked by people I agree with.

00:05:30.280 So when I see a clip on MSNBC, it's never to agree with it.

00:05:36.060 It's always to laugh at it.

00:05:37.620 If I see a clip of the view, it's always just to laugh at it.

00:05:44.080 So the bubble of all bubbles is forming.

00:05:49.100 I don't know if I'm against it or for it, but it's a complete transformation of the internet experience if you never leave that one app.

00:06:00.360 And I probably wouldn't.

00:06:01.860 I'd probably be on it all day.

00:06:03.220 Anyway, and then Elon Musk's AI company, which I assume will be folded into X, into Grok.

00:06:17.160 I don't know how that works.

00:06:18.680 But apparently Elon Musk is now launching the biggest supercomputer in the world.

00:06:25.480 The largest supercomputer has many GPUs.

00:06:29.600 You don't need to know the details.

00:06:31.520 But the biggest one in the world is Elon Musk's.

00:06:35.660 So if you used AI for all of your work and Elon Musk had the largest supercomputer driving the best AI, would you ever leave?

00:06:54.020 I don't know.

00:06:54.640 It's looking to be like Elon Musk's strategy for X and for everything else is kind of amazing.

00:07:06.260 It's like a strategy I've never seen before that basically would take over everything from the news to finance to banking.

00:07:13.860 And probably, probably it would work.

00:07:19.220 So that's big.

00:07:22.140 Speaking of Elon Musk, he points out that the solar power generation in China will exceed all sources of electricity combined in the USA in only three to four years, which he calls a wake-up call.

00:07:38.740 So do you remember when people mocked Elon Musk for saying that we could get all of our energy from solar?

00:07:49.240 We would need batteries, of course, but we have batteries.

00:07:55.020 He was never really in the majority on that.

00:07:59.460 I always felt like he was in the minority.

00:08:01.420 And everyone who thought they knew about energy would say over and over, well, you're never going to get there with solar power alone.

00:08:11.740 I mean, that's ridiculous.

00:08:13.800 You're going to need nuclear and you're going to need oil and gas and all that.

00:08:19.800 And in the short run, certainly that's all true.

00:08:22.560 But is it hypothetically possible, as Musk has been saying for years, that if you wanted to and you went hard at it, you could have all the energy needed from solar?

00:08:39.340 And it's starting to look like he was right about that.

00:08:43.420 Looks like he got the math right.

00:08:45.040 If he were doubting Elon Musk on math and engineering, well, he made a bad bet.

00:08:52.540 I have to admit, I was skeptical because it looked more like he was just promoting his own products.

00:09:01.260 But I think he's also accurate that you could get all of your electricity from solar if you went wild, you know, really went at it hard like China. 0.94

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00:10:12.860 The appeals court, an appeals court is going to let Trump keep control of the California National Guard.

00:10:22.680 Now, if you haven't been following this, how many times have you heard that an appeals court altered an order from a lower court about something about Trump?

00:10:36.340 How many times have we seen that story in just this calendar year?

00:10:41.600 Maybe 25 times about different stories?

00:10:47.740 I don't know how many times, but it feels like a lot.

00:10:51.000 But the latest one is, let's see.

00:10:55.940 So Trump took control of the National Guard in California when those anti-ice protests were happening.

00:11:03.640 And then California appealed and said, you can't do that.

00:11:09.680 You don't have the right to do that because there are only certain circumstances in which the commander-in-chief can take control.

00:11:19.300 And those certain circumstances have not been met.

00:11:23.200 And the lower court agreed.

00:11:26.440 And so for a while, Gavin Newsom had control back of the National Guard.

00:11:31.660 But now, the appeals court has decided that the commander-in-chief should have flexibility.

00:11:40.420 And you don't want to handicap him and you don't want to put the state in charge of protecting the whole country.

00:11:47.800 So, the appeals court says that Trump can keep control of the National Guard in California.

00:11:58.360 But, does it matter?

00:12:02.140 Are we still having protests?

00:12:05.000 Anti-ice protests in L.A.?

00:12:07.260 Or did they all stop?

00:12:09.780 Because I didn't see anything in the news today about any protests.

00:12:15.200 So, I think the appeals court has ruled on something that has no importance and no bearing on anything.

00:12:23.840 Because it's already old news.

00:12:26.740 Anyway.

00:12:28.360 Speaking of complicated things.

00:12:31.180 Russ Vogt, the budget guy for the administration.

00:12:39.780 According to Politico, he's got this clever idea for cutting costs in the government that not everybody thinks is legal.

00:12:50.780 And he calls it a pocket rescission.

00:12:55.020 So, as you know, the budget process in the government is this weird, convoluted, Byzantine process that nobody understands.

00:13:04.060 Sometimes it's a budget, sometimes it's a spending bill, sometimes it's a rescission, and we don't even know what any of that means.

00:13:13.360 But, there's an idea that Trump could issue a formal request to clawback funding.

00:13:23.800 Now, this is in Politico.

00:13:25.060 And so, if Trump said, I've got a formal request to end funding for some specific things, similar to what he did before with a $9.4 billion package he sent to lawmakers, that what you could do is have it sit there.

00:13:47.360 However, the memo could land on Capitol Hill less than 45 days before the new fiscal year is set to begin on October 1st.

00:13:57.820 And then, by withholding the cash, by withholding the cash for that full timeframe, regardless of the action by Congress, the White House would treat the funding as expired when the current fiscal year ends.

00:14:16.980 So, something about a formal request to clawback funding, but you don't really mean it, you just want the request to sit there and time out.

00:14:30.160 And then, somehow, it times out, and then you don't have to spend it.

00:14:37.020 Does that even sound like a real process to you?

00:14:40.640 I may be getting some part of that wrong, but it's so frustrating that our government doesn't have any process that the voters even understand.

00:14:55.540 It's like, why don't you do your budget like everybody else does, where you say, this is how much I want to spend.

00:15:02.900 Does everybody agree?

00:15:04.840 And then, you vote on it.

00:15:06.660 No, no.

00:15:07.740 We've got to have rescission packages and spending packages.

00:15:12.940 We've got to have pocket rescissions.

00:15:17.420 Yeah.

00:15:18.080 So, we'll see if that works.

00:15:21.500 Anyway, I saw one report today on X that there's a senior Iranian official who told Reuters that Iran is ready to discuss limitations on its uranium enrichment.

00:15:37.740 To which I say, to which I say, one guy?

00:15:41.980 There's one guy who said that?

00:15:45.200 What good is that?

00:15:46.400 If it wasn't the supreme leader, do we trust this one guy who allegedly told Reuters, oh, yeah, we're totally open to discussing our uranium enrichment?

00:16:00.460 Well, at the same time, also on X, I think Zero Edge was reporting this.

00:16:07.500 Another senior Iranian official, who is different from the last one, said zero enrichment will undoubtedly be rejected, especially now because of the Israeli strikes.

00:16:22.120 So, you've got one Iranian official who says, oh, yeah, we'll totally discuss that, and another one who says, oh, no, we're not even going to be open to that.

00:16:32.340 But it could be that one of them is talking about zero enrichment, and the other one is talking about limitations on enrichment.

00:16:44.060 So, you don't really need to get to zero, do you?

00:16:49.120 Could you make a deal where it's just low enrichment levels are allowed as long as there's lots of inspections?

00:16:55.520 So, maybe there's some room to deal with that.

00:17:01.600 According to NBC, Iran has unleashed what they call combat drones inside Israel for the first time.

00:17:11.080 Now, combat drone?

00:17:13.440 What would be a combat drone versus a drone?

00:17:18.360 I don't know exactly, but I think a drone would be like a smart rocket, but not very fast.

00:17:26.380 And it would plunge into something and explode.

00:17:30.500 Whereas, I'm guessing these combat drones are more like an unmanned jet that has a number of weapons.

00:17:39.020 And it can go in and fire a bunch of things and then return home and get some more ordnance.

00:17:45.160 I like saying ordnance.

00:17:46.980 Makes me sound like I know what I'm talking about.

00:17:48.880 Anyway, the Revolutionary Guard has announced that its drones have penetrated Israeli airspace

00:17:58.020 and they're hitting infrastructure using missiles and airdrop bombs.

00:18:02.980 Meanwhile, on X and other places, I keep seeing these estimates of how many missiles Iran had

00:18:20.140 and how many they've used and how many they've shot down.

00:18:25.560 And for about five minutes, I said to myself,

00:18:29.320 huh, here's some useful data.

00:18:31.620 I told myself, if I know how many missiles Iran has and I know how many they've fired

00:18:40.980 and how many they have left and what percentage of them are getting through,

00:18:45.740 I'll have a good idea what's going to happen.

00:18:47.740 Iran is never going to surrender unless there are boots on the ground, 0.99

00:19:02.520 meaning Israeli and American soldiers on the ground.

00:19:07.440 And that's not going to happen.

00:19:09.820 I'm pretty sure.

00:19:10.720 I mean, it seems deeply unlikely that Trump would agree to, you know,

00:19:16.720 soldiers getting killed on the ground in Iran.

00:19:19.880 And of course, Iran is a much bigger, harder land target than Iraq was by a lot.

00:19:27.760 So we don't think it would work.

00:19:32.040 And if you don't put people on the ground,

00:19:34.620 are we really going to change the leadership in Iran?

00:19:40.720 And if we don't change the leadership,

00:19:44.300 is anything going to be different, you know, once the bombs start, stop dropping?

00:19:50.780 So it seems to me like we're on a path

00:19:53.600 to destroying as much of Iran as you can from the air, 0.96

00:19:59.220 at least the government and military stuff.

00:20:03.220 But then when it's all done, we won't have anybody on the ground.

00:20:07.260 I'm positive that there will not be a legitimate, organic rising up of the population of Iran 1.00

00:20:16.280 to take over with a moderate.

00:20:19.180 I feel like that's a zero chance.

00:20:22.260 I just don't see a world in which your nation is being targeted and bombed all day long,

00:20:29.880 and you say to yourself, you know what?

00:20:33.100 I think I'll take the side of the people bombing my country. 0.98

00:20:37.580 Even if you like the West, and even if you didn't like your Ayatollah, 0.99

00:20:43.500 you're still not going to rise up against your own country

00:20:46.440 and take the side of the country that's bombing you.

00:20:51.220 Has that ever happened in the history of anything?

00:20:54.160 I don't think so.

00:20:57.300 So if we're not going to have soldiers on the ground,

00:21:00.580 which I don't think we will,

00:21:02.540 and there won't be any kind of, you know, organic national uprising,

00:21:08.120 that means that either the Supreme Leader will still be in power when this is over,

00:21:14.200 or maybe somebody worse who's just, you know, down the line.

00:21:19.080 If the Supreme Leader gets taken out,

00:21:22.660 he's not going to be replaced by a moderate,

00:21:25.620 probably replaced by somebody who's the hardest, hard-ass they have.

00:21:31.780 So what exactly would be the way that we could have any kind of victory here?

00:21:38.560 It looks to me like there's only one way this all works out.

00:21:42.520 If we're not going to put boots on the ground,

00:21:45.720 Iran will still be Iran when we're done. 1.00

00:21:48.080 And then they will start rebuilding their offensive weapons,

00:21:53.440 presumably because they think it's their best chance of survival.

00:21:58.660 So I just don't see a path.

00:22:03.700 Do you?

00:22:05.320 Do any of you see, like,

00:22:07.440 how this could possibly be settled in a way that we would all be happy?

00:22:11.620 And when I say all, I mean everybody except Iran. 0.97

00:22:15.460 I feel like everybody's going to be unhappy.

00:22:18.760 Including Iran.

00:22:20.800 So that's what it looks like.

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00:22:37.560 But Starlink is still live in Iran.

00:22:42.140 Everything's about Elon Musk.

00:22:45.020 So Iran has turned off its regular internet service.

00:22:49.300 But the people who have Starlink, I don't know how many there are,

00:22:53.780 but they do have full internet thanks to Elon Musk's Starlink company.

00:22:59.420 Now that's something that apparently Iran can't turn off 0.97

00:23:04.540 because they don't have any control over the satellites in the air.

00:23:08.460 So that would suggest that at least Israel and the U.S.

00:23:16.620 could feed a bunch of propaganda into their population. 0.83

00:23:20.640 But there won't be that many people who have Starlink, right?

00:23:24.240 And I imagine that if you did have Starlink and the Iranian authorities found out,

00:23:31.280 wouldn't they arrest you or take your Starlink-based platform away?

00:23:36.820 So I don't think Starlink will have a gigantic impact on the population of Iran

00:23:44.480 because there can't be that many people who have access to it.

00:23:49.340 And even if they did, as I said before,

00:23:53.140 you're not going to convince the population to rise up against their own leader

00:23:57.780 while you're bombing them.

00:24:00.280 It just isn't a thing.

00:24:01.880 It just couldn't possibly happen in our world.

00:24:03.980 Anyway, over on MSNBC,

00:24:08.540 there was some talking head who was arguing

00:24:12.340 that when the Iranians chant death to America, 0.79

00:24:17.880 that they don't really mean it.

00:24:20.600 And his example was that he was at some event

00:24:24.160 where they were chanting death to America.

00:24:26.540 And then he introduced himself to some of the locals.

00:24:30.640 And the locals said,

00:24:31.960 Oh, we love America.

00:24:33.120 We like your movies and your culture and all that.

00:24:37.540 And so he concluded

00:24:39.000 that death to America

00:24:41.540 doesn't really mean,

00:24:43.300 you know, death to America.

00:24:45.540 It's just a thing they say.

00:24:48.500 To which I say,

00:24:50.240 it doesn't really matter what the public wanted.

00:24:53.580 It only matters what the leadership means

00:24:55.860 when they say death to America.

00:24:57.900 Right?

00:24:58.500 It doesn't matter how many people repeat it.

00:25:02.120 They don't have any power.

00:25:03.380 So what matters is do the top people in Iran,

00:25:10.260 the top military,

00:25:11.520 the top supreme leader,

00:25:13.840 when they say death to America,

00:25:16.180 do they mean death to America?

00:25:19.760 Or is it just something they say

00:25:22.540 while they're loving Western culture?

00:25:25.080 Well, no.

00:25:26.660 The supreme leader is not loving Western culture.

00:25:29.580 So anything that the population says

00:25:34.280 about how much they love America,

00:25:36.020 which I do believe,

00:25:37.720 you know,

00:25:38.080 all indications are that

00:25:40.040 the Iranians are at least 1.00

00:25:41.800 pro-Western culture,

00:25:44.180 if not pro-America.

00:25:46.000 I don't think it matters.

00:25:48.980 I think it only matters

00:25:49.900 what the leaders think.

00:25:51.180 And if they want to destroy America 0.57

00:25:52.700 and Israel,

00:25:54.060 well, they'll keep doing it.

00:25:57.900 The Pentagon,

00:25:59.700 according to Jennifer Griffin,

00:26:01.720 Fox News,

00:26:03.140 the Pentagon is very confident

00:26:05.040 that the Bunker Buster missiles

00:26:07.720 would work if employed.

00:26:11.040 And apparently they're GPS guided.

00:26:13.420 And if one doesn't get the job done,

00:26:17.280 they can drop a second one

00:26:18.680 in the same hole as the first one.

00:26:21.460 And it'll make the hole deeper

00:26:23.500 and that'll get the job done.

00:26:26.240 Now, let me ask you this.

00:26:29.940 When was the last time

00:26:31.480 you saw a very complicated system

00:26:33.800 that had never been tested

00:26:35.880 work on the first try?

00:26:39.600 Well, maybe the nuclear bombs

00:26:42.360 that we dropped on Japan.

00:26:44.820 But you could argue that

00:26:46.600 had we tested those?

00:26:49.600 We tested those

00:26:50.660 before we dropped them, right?

00:26:52.040 Not the ones we dropped.

00:26:53.480 But did the Manhattan Project

00:26:56.900 test the explosions

00:26:59.620 with other bombs

00:27:01.540 before they went after Japan?

00:27:06.220 I should know that.

00:27:07.680 It was tested, right?

00:27:09.120 I feel like we would have tested it.

00:27:13.040 But how in the world

00:27:14.460 have we tested

00:27:15.620 dropping two bombs

00:27:17.460 in the same hole?

00:27:19.400 Does that sound like something

00:27:20.960 we could, you know,

00:27:22.720 be sure is going to work?

00:27:25.620 It would be one thing

00:27:27.260 if we said it'll probably work.

00:27:30.940 So it's worth a try.

00:27:32.380 But they're not really saying

00:27:34.820 probably, are they?

00:27:36.700 The Pentagon is basically saying,

00:27:39.480 oh, this will work.

00:27:40.920 Do you believe that?

00:27:42.940 So I would say that the chance

00:27:46.020 that it doesn't work

00:27:47.500 or it doesn't work completely

00:27:49.100 or it doesn't work enough

00:27:50.640 or something goes wrong,

00:27:53.620 they're pretty high.

00:27:55.320 Pretty high.

00:27:56.160 Because in the real world

00:27:58.340 when you haven't tested

00:28:00.000 something that's complicated

00:28:01.840 and it's kind of complicated

00:28:03.960 to fly a bomber

00:28:05.160 all across the ocean

00:28:06.300 and refuel it multiple times,

00:28:08.920 drop one bomb

00:28:10.300 and then drop a second one

00:28:11.580 in the same hole

00:28:13.220 while the Iranians are watching. 0.51

00:28:17.280 I guess they would have

00:28:18.100 no defense against any of that.

00:28:22.060 Well, let me just say

00:28:23.740 that I don't think

00:28:24.760 it's guaranteed.

00:28:26.720 I don't know

00:28:27.360 what the odds are,

00:28:28.300 but I would put the odds

00:28:30.660 at maybe 70%

00:28:34.800 that it would work.

00:28:37.460 What would you do?

00:28:39.340 Tell me in the comments.

00:28:41.520 If you had to guess

00:28:42.960 without knowing anything,

00:28:44.680 none of us really know

00:28:45.740 anything about this topic,

00:28:47.980 but knowing that it's complicated

00:28:50.080 and there's technology involved

00:28:52.440 and there's war

00:28:53.360 and when war is involved

00:28:55.320 nothing goes exactly

00:28:56.760 the way you planned,

00:28:58.460 what would you guess

00:28:59.680 are the odds

00:29:00.420 it would work?

00:29:02.900 I say 100%.

00:29:04.460 25%.

00:29:05.680 Well, you're just joking

00:29:06.640 on the 25.

00:29:08.700 99%.

00:29:09.300 Yeah, we don't know,

00:29:10.560 do we?

00:29:11.240 It's an unknowable estimate.

00:29:13.560 I don't think

00:29:13.940 the Pentagon knows.

00:29:14.840 But they use words

00:29:19.340 like this,

00:29:20.780 that it would definitely work

00:29:22.420 if it were deployed correctly.

00:29:26.620 Do you see what they're doing?

00:29:28.880 If deployed correctly.

00:29:32.540 That's the problem.

00:29:33.840 I'm actually confident

00:29:37.660 that they know

00:29:38.380 how to make a bomb

00:29:39.140 that makes a big hole.

00:29:41.040 That part I believe.

00:29:42.780 I believe the bomb

00:29:44.200 will explode.

00:29:46.280 So,

00:29:46.740 I don't really have

00:29:47.460 a lot of doubt about that.

00:29:48.800 There's,

00:29:49.020 I mean,

00:29:49.760 there's some uncertainty,

00:29:50.940 but very low.

00:29:52.540 The uncertainty

00:29:53.500 is whether we implement it correctly.

00:29:55.500 So,

00:29:57.140 so they've got

00:29:57.720 that little,

00:29:58.300 that little catch in there.

00:30:00.780 Oh, yeah,

00:30:01.560 this is,

00:30:02.100 it's 100%

00:30:02.980 going to work

00:30:04.080 if deployed correctly.

00:30:07.660 Wouldn't that be everything?

00:30:09.900 Everything works

00:30:10.900 if deployed correctly?

00:30:14.720 It's sort of like

00:30:16.000 saying nothing.

00:30:17.800 Anyway,

00:30:19.820 according to the

00:30:21.120 Wall Street Journal,

00:30:23.160 Israel is, 0.78

00:30:25.500 spending

00:30:25.940 hundreds of millions

00:30:27.100 of dollars a day

00:30:28.240 supporting this war,

00:30:30.200 which would explain

00:30:31.480 why they wanted it

00:30:32.660 to end in two weeks.

00:30:35.720 But,

00:30:36.800 do you remember

00:30:37.360 one of my predictions?

00:30:39.360 That it would not end

00:30:40.460 in two weeks?

00:30:42.480 Now,

00:30:42.940 Trump has said

00:30:43.640 he needs two weeks

00:30:44.800 from now

00:30:45.860 to make a decision,

00:30:48.160 because the Europeans

00:30:49.720 are meeting

00:30:50.320 to allegedly

00:30:52.180 talk about

00:30:53.280 what can be done

00:30:55.440 with Iran.

00:30:57.140 So,

00:30:58.140 it doesn't look like

00:30:59.960 Iran wants to talk

00:31:01.000 to the United States

00:31:02.160 or to Israel directly,

00:31:04.260 but they might talk

00:31:05.880 to the Europeans,

00:31:07.320 because the Europeans

00:31:08.240 have not

00:31:08.920 been as,

00:31:10.500 you know,

00:31:11.120 bellicose

00:31:11.720 as the U.S.

00:31:12.920 and Israel.

00:31:13.480 So,

00:31:15.860 let's say

00:31:16.560 they talk

00:31:17.380 to the Europeans,

00:31:19.440 and that

00:31:20.200 that takes

00:31:20.760 two weeks

00:31:21.480 before Trump

00:31:22.480 decides

00:31:23.000 whether he wants

00:31:23.600 to get

00:31:23.920 militarily

00:31:24.700 aggressive

00:31:25.880 on the side

00:31:27.580 of offense.

00:31:29.960 And so,

00:31:31.080 we're already

00:31:31.520 at three weeks,

00:31:32.540 right?

00:31:33.440 So,

00:31:34.060 minimum

00:31:34.340 would be

00:31:34.800 three weeks.

00:31:35.980 And remember,

00:31:37.740 two weeks

00:31:38.600 is just

00:31:40.140 to make

00:31:40.480 a decision.

00:31:42.500 If he makes

00:31:43.520 the decision,

00:31:44.900 how much longer

00:31:45.800 will it take

00:31:46.700 for the,

00:31:48.600 you know,

00:31:49.080 additional military

00:31:50.200 force

00:31:50.860 to make

00:31:51.420 a difference?

00:31:52.880 So,

00:31:53.880 how do you like

00:31:54.500 my prediction now,

00:31:56.240 where Israel said

00:31:57.160 we'll be done

00:31:57.700 in two weeks?

00:31:59.180 And I said,

00:32:00.340 hmm,

00:32:01.300 I think

00:32:02.100 probably months.

00:32:04.520 I think we're

00:32:05.580 up to

00:32:06.060 at least

00:32:06.640 a month already,

00:32:07.740 no matter

00:32:08.640 what.

00:32:10.840 And I don't

00:32:11.620 think we're

00:32:12.160 done

00:32:12.580 extending that.

00:32:14.720 I've got a

00:32:15.240 feeling it's

00:32:15.820 going to be

00:32:16.140 multiple months,

00:32:17.800 and whatever

00:32:18.920 Israel thought

00:32:19.940 they were

00:32:20.260 going to spend,

00:32:21.880 they're going

00:32:22.580 to spend a lot

00:32:23.180 more.

00:32:24.060 So,

00:32:24.420 it's going

00:32:24.660 to be

00:32:24.860 billions.

00:32:26.220 And Israel 0.51

00:32:27.140 might,

00:32:27.600 I don't know,

00:32:29.160 they might

00:32:29.460 bankrupt

00:32:29.840 themselves

00:32:30.420 on this

00:32:31.540 war.

00:32:33.980 So,

00:32:34.960 I guess

00:32:35.300 the

00:32:35.600 interceptor

00:32:36.600 missiles

00:32:37.040 are a major

00:32:37.880 expense,

00:32:38.580 according to

00:32:38.960 the Wall

00:32:39.200 Street Journal.

00:32:41.200 So,

00:32:41.820 the

00:32:41.980 interceptor

00:32:42.800 missiles

00:32:43.260 cost up

00:32:44.420 to $200

00:32:45.020 million a

00:32:45.940 day.

00:32:47.340 And then

00:32:48.040 the building

00:32:48.720 repairs,

00:32:50.000 because

00:32:50.740 Iran is

00:32:51.700 knocking down

00:32:52.380 buildings in

00:32:53.160 Israel,

00:32:54.360 are estimated

00:32:55.420 at $400

00:32:56.120 million.

00:32:57.840 So,

00:32:58.440 that's the

00:32:59.000 kind of

00:32:59.320 expense

00:32:59.940 that Israel

00:33:00.960 is looking

00:33:01.440 at to

00:33:02.320 keep doing

00:33:03.220 what they're

00:33:03.560 doing.

00:33:04.460 And keep

00:33:04.860 in mind,

00:33:05.420 that they

00:33:07.640 can do

00:33:08.040 it,

00:33:08.460 they can

00:33:08.940 do this

00:33:09.400 forever,

00:33:10.360 and they

00:33:10.720 still wouldn't

00:33:11.180 get the

00:33:11.500 result that

00:33:12.060 they need

00:33:12.600 without boots

00:33:14.180 on the

00:33:14.520 ground,

00:33:15.480 and there

00:33:16.480 won't be

00:33:16.900 boots on

00:33:17.340 the ground.

00:33:19.040 So,

00:33:19.940 they're not

00:33:20.360 only spending

00:33:21.160 hundreds of

00:33:22.620 millions of

00:33:23.140 dollars a

00:33:23.660 day,

00:33:24.580 but it's

00:33:25.860 in an effort

00:33:26.560 that even

00:33:27.220 on paper,

00:33:27.960 it's hard to

00:33:28.400 imagine how

00:33:28.980 it would

00:33:29.300 work.

00:33:31.560 Right?

00:33:32.040 Because even

00:33:33.380 if the

00:33:33.800 leadership

00:33:34.220 collapses,

00:33:36.000 there's just

00:33:36.500 going to be

00:33:36.920 some new

00:33:37.460 mullah.

00:33:38.600 Doesn't mean

00:33:39.200 it's going

00:33:39.560 to be better,

00:33:41.080 and we're

00:33:42.140 not going

00:33:42.460 to be on

00:33:42.700 the ground.

00:33:44.820 So,

00:33:45.780 I think

00:33:46.680 Iran wins

00:33:47.700 just by

00:33:48.360 not losing.

00:33:51.040 If Iran 0.97

00:33:52.020 just has to

00:33:52.680 exist in

00:33:54.260 two months,

00:33:55.560 it's going

00:33:56.180 to look like

00:33:56.600 they won

00:33:57.060 in a weird

00:33:59.320 way.

00:33:59.780 I mean,

00:34:00.120 they'll be in

00:34:00.600 terrible shape,

00:34:01.500 but they

00:34:02.840 would be

00:34:03.220 able to

00:34:03.800 rebuild,

00:34:04.800 and the

00:34:05.460 fighting would 0.50

00:34:06.120 be over,

00:34:06.860 and then

00:34:07.360 presumably,

00:34:09.120 they would

00:34:09.440 rebuild some

00:34:10.080 offensive

00:34:10.520 capabilities.

00:34:13.860 Anyway,

00:34:14.780 so Trump

00:34:15.440 is still

00:34:15.840 acting like

00:34:16.380 negotiations

00:34:17.200 are still

00:34:18.000 possible,

00:34:19.760 but it's

00:34:20.960 up to the

00:34:21.420 Europeans at

00:34:22.180 this point.

00:34:23.620 However,

00:34:24.700 some people

00:34:25.440 are saying

00:34:26.540 that Trump

00:34:27.480 isn't so

00:34:28.900 much expecting

00:34:30.160 the

00:34:30.680 negotiations

00:34:31.500 to work.

00:34:33.220 He's really

00:34:34.000 just buying

00:34:34.620 time for

00:34:35.640 the U.S.

00:34:36.220 to move

00:34:36.560 more assets

00:34:37.360 into the

00:34:38.300 theater,

00:34:39.500 as they

00:34:39.780 say.

00:34:41.100 Does that

00:34:41.480 sound right?

00:34:43.100 It might

00:34:43.700 be both.

00:34:44.880 So,

00:34:45.280 Trump might

00:34:45.880 be thinking,

00:34:47.020 well,

00:34:47.320 you know,

00:34:48.320 there's some

00:34:48.880 possibility

00:34:49.600 the negotiations

00:34:50.580 will work,

00:34:51.480 so might

00:34:52.180 as well give

00:34:52.600 it a few

00:34:52.960 weeks.

00:34:53.760 At the

00:34:54.360 same time,

00:34:55.000 he might

00:34:55.280 be thinking,

00:34:56.040 well,

00:34:57.280 you know,

00:34:57.580 if I had

00:34:57.940 another week

00:34:58.500 or two,

00:34:59.440 we could

00:34:59.860 get a few

00:35:00.380 more,

00:35:00.840 I don't

00:35:01.640 know,

00:35:02.340 naval ships

00:35:03.400 in the

00:35:03.760 area or

00:35:04.520 some more

00:35:05.320 ammunition or

00:35:08.000 something.

00:35:09.280 So,

00:35:09.760 probably waiting

00:35:10.560 makes sense.

00:35:11.680 But also,

00:35:13.020 it could be

00:35:14.060 that Israel

00:35:14.800 is planning

00:35:15.420 a ground

00:35:16.880 attack on

00:35:18.440 Fordow,

00:35:19.520 which is a

00:35:20.120 place that

00:35:20.680 we're looking

00:35:21.100 at, you know,

00:35:21.900 as bunker

00:35:22.300 busters.

00:35:22.700 so maybe

00:35:25.320 if you

00:35:26.000 wait two

00:35:26.500 weeks,

00:35:27.240 we will

00:35:27.840 know if

00:35:28.400 Israel can

00:35:29.400 get in

00:35:29.860 the front

00:35:30.240 door of

00:35:31.500 these

00:35:31.900 underground

00:35:32.700 bunkers if

00:35:34.140 they have

00:35:35.080 boots on

00:35:35.620 the ground

00:35:36.140 limited.

00:35:37.200 It'd be like

00:35:37.760 special forces.

00:35:40.160 And just

00:35:41.020 do that one

00:35:41.660 job and

00:35:42.180 then presumably

00:35:43.380 go home as

00:35:44.320 soon as

00:35:44.580 they're done.

00:35:46.460 So,

00:35:47.500 so we've

00:35:49.580 got at least

00:35:50.100 two or three

00:35:51.120 things that

00:35:51.720 might be

00:35:52.060 happening in

00:35:52.680 two weeks.

00:35:54.260 More assets

00:35:55.400 getting into

00:35:56.080 the war zone

00:35:56.760 for the

00:35:57.200 U.S.

00:35:58.600 Israel

00:35:59.160 potentially

00:36:00.100 making their

00:36:00.920 own ground

00:36:01.440 attack on

00:36:02.440 Fordow and

00:36:03.380 the other

00:36:03.680 one.

00:36:04.820 And maybe

00:36:06.040 negotiations

00:36:06.960 that might

00:36:08.640 lead to

00:36:09.060 something.

00:36:09.920 So,

00:36:10.240 that's probably

00:36:10.660 all happening.

00:36:12.580 Trust and

00:36:13.020 safety is

00:36:13.560 becoming a

00:36:14.300 key driver of

00:36:15.580 customer

00:36:15.980 experience,

00:36:16.940 influencing how

00:36:17.840 users engage,

00:36:19.100 how safe they

00:36:19.820 feel, and

00:36:20.440 ultimately how

00:36:21.460 likely they

00:36:22.100 are to

00:36:22.520 return.

00:36:23.300 Because, I

00:36:23.920 don't know

00:36:24.180 about you,

00:36:24.740 but if I've

00:36:25.340 had too many

00:36:25.920 bad experiences

00:36:26.920 on a

00:36:27.300 platform, I'm

00:36:28.300 definitely not

00:36:29.220 rushing back for

00:36:29.940 more.

00:36:30.320 This is the

00:36:30.840 intersection we're

00:36:31.820 here to

00:36:32.180 explore today.

00:36:33.080 Tap to keep

00:36:34.120 listening to how

00:36:34.780 trust and safety

00:36:35.620 redefined CX for

00:36:36.920 brands like

00:36:37.520 TikTok,

00:36:38.120 Trustpilot,

00:36:38.780 and more.

00:36:39.600 A conversation

00:36:40.520 with InTouchCX.

00:36:41.900 New York

00:36:44.420 Post has a

00:36:45.960 story about

00:36:46.500 how all

00:36:47.580 the once

00:36:48.680 devoted

00:36:49.480 Iranian

00:36:50.120 proxies,

00:36:51.100 as they

00:36:51.480 call them,

00:36:52.760 are all

00:36:54.240 out of the

00:36:56.000 fight.

00:36:57.420 So, are

00:36:58.160 you surprised

00:36:59.060 that the

00:37:00.880 Hezbollah

00:37:01.840 and Hamas

00:37:02.600 and the

00:37:02.920 Houthis and

00:37:03.620 the Shiite

00:37:04.240 militia are

00:37:06.700 sort of

00:37:07.320 sending this

00:37:08.220 one out?

00:37:08.740 It does

00:37:12.360 suggest that

00:37:13.580 Israel did 1.00

00:37:14.280 a heck of a

00:37:15.340 good job in

00:37:16.980 suppressing

00:37:17.540 them, and I

00:37:18.220 guess the

00:37:18.660 U.S. did a

00:37:19.260 good job with

00:37:19.820 the Houthis.

00:37:21.460 Maybe they

00:37:22.080 just don't

00:37:22.760 have the

00:37:23.320 assets, maybe

00:37:24.500 they just

00:37:24.900 don't have the

00:37:25.720 possibility of

00:37:27.260 helping much,

00:37:27.980 so they're just

00:37:28.460 going to try

00:37:29.300 to sit it

00:37:30.520 out and

00:37:30.940 survive.

00:37:33.220 But I

00:37:33.780 would say the

00:37:34.280 same thing

00:37:34.720 about the

00:37:35.080 proxies that

00:37:36.640 I'm saying

00:37:37.020 about Iran.

00:37:37.660 for them

00:37:39.140 to win,

00:37:39.800 they only

00:37:40.100 have to

00:37:40.460 survive.

00:37:42.340 Because even

00:37:43.980 though Hezbollah

00:37:44.700 is acting

00:37:45.400 like they

00:37:46.460 don't want

00:37:46.820 to attack

00:37:47.300 Israel,

00:37:48.880 they could

00:37:49.600 change their

00:37:50.180 mind once

00:37:51.600 they built

00:37:52.040 up more

00:37:53.040 resources.

00:37:54.980 But it

00:37:55.660 does look

00:37:56.080 like Iran 1.00

00:37:57.020 is going

00:37:57.380 to be

00:37:58.100 sucking for

00:37:59.680 money.

00:38:01.120 I don't

00:38:01.500 think they're

00:38:01.940 going to

00:38:02.060 have much

00:38:02.480 money for

00:38:03.840 their proxies.

00:38:05.940 so making

00:38:08.180 Iran run

00:38:08.840 out of

00:38:09.100 money might

00:38:09.580 be the

00:38:10.000 only way

00:38:10.720 you can

00:38:11.040 keep them

00:38:11.560 weak enough

00:38:12.400 to not

00:38:13.400 be a risk.

00:38:17.360 Now,

00:38:17.860 if anybody

00:38:19.060 is new

00:38:19.520 to my

00:38:19.920 podcast,

00:38:21.260 I remind

00:38:21.920 you that

00:38:22.640 what I'm

00:38:23.700 talking about

00:38:24.240 is predictions

00:38:25.080 and observations.

00:38:27.000 So I'm

00:38:27.540 not taking

00:38:28.080 sides,

00:38:29.580 and I'm

00:38:30.100 not making

00:38:30.580 moral or

00:38:31.420 ethical

00:38:31.900 judgments,

00:38:32.480 and I

00:38:33.660 certainly

00:38:34.080 don't know

00:38:34.780 the military

00:38:36.700 ins and

00:38:37.240 outs.

00:38:39.460 But just

00:38:40.220 looking at

00:38:41.620 it as an

00:38:42.100 observer,

00:38:42.920 trying to

00:38:43.280 figure out,

00:38:43.960 all right,

00:38:44.220 what's going

00:38:44.660 on here?

00:38:45.700 What do we

00:38:46.220 expect?

00:38:48.080 All right,

00:38:48.480 another topic

00:38:49.380 over on

00:38:50.440 Politico.

00:38:52.380 There are

00:38:53.380 unnamed

00:38:54.100 Democrat

00:38:54.960 people who

00:38:56.580 are criticizing

00:38:57.520 their own

00:38:58.020 team,

00:38:58.340 and they're

00:39:00.000 calling

00:39:00.300 the DNC

00:39:01.520 chairman,

00:39:02.600 Ken Martin,

00:39:04.020 weak,

00:39:05.180 whiny,

00:39:05.700 and invisible.

00:39:08.500 That does

00:39:09.400 sound exactly

00:39:10.180 like what

00:39:10.880 we're seeing,

00:39:12.280 that Ken

00:39:13.160 Martin guy.

00:39:14.260 He does

00:39:14.620 seem weak,

00:39:15.380 whiny,

00:39:15.740 and invisible.

00:39:18.260 And he's

00:39:19.120 had quite a

00:39:20.020 bit of

00:39:20.320 drama.

00:39:21.520 But here's

00:39:23.980 another quote

00:39:24.820 from the same

00:39:25.520 article.

00:39:25.900 Many DNC

00:39:27.920 members and

00:39:28.500 outside Democrats,

00:39:29.580 including Martin's

00:39:30.480 supporters,

00:39:31.420 said they

00:39:32.140 wished the

00:39:32.720 party would

00:39:33.400 just move

00:39:33.960 on from

00:39:34.520 recent internal

00:39:35.580 turmoil and

00:39:36.920 focus instead

00:39:38.100 on mounting

00:39:39.160 an effective

00:39:39.800 fight against

00:39:40.700 Trump.

00:39:42.180 An effective

00:39:43.400 fight against

00:39:44.220 Trump?

00:39:46.160 You mean

00:39:47.280 fighting the

00:39:48.820 80% of the

00:39:50.040 country who

00:39:50.660 agrees with

00:39:51.240 him?

00:39:52.920 How much

00:39:54.060 of a

00:39:54.560 loser

00:39:55.360 strategy

00:39:55.900 could you

00:39:57.620 possibly have?

00:40:00.500 I mean,

00:40:00.780 just think

00:40:01.140 about that.

00:40:02.380 The Democrats

00:40:03.260 are just

00:40:04.040 decomposing and

00:40:05.560 falling apart

00:40:06.280 and they've

00:40:07.640 got all kinds

00:40:08.200 of turmoil.

00:40:09.040 They don't

00:40:09.280 have a

00:40:09.600 leader.

00:40:10.200 They've

00:40:10.360 got all

00:40:10.620 these

00:40:10.880 problems.

00:40:12.260 And then

00:40:12.520 when you

00:40:12.820 ask the

00:40:13.440 brightest,

00:40:14.960 most

00:40:15.360 informed,

00:40:16.680 most involved

00:40:17.640 Democrats,

00:40:19.100 what do we

00:40:19.600 need to do?

00:40:20.880 The Democrats,

00:40:21.920 what do they

00:40:22.240 need to do?

00:40:22.780 The answer

00:40:24.000 is they

00:40:25.140 need to

00:40:25.640 mount a

00:40:26.200 more effective

00:40:26.840 fight against

00:40:27.800 Trump.

00:40:29.420 Trump got

00:40:30.320 elected because

00:40:31.960 people wanted

00:40:32.920 more of his

00:40:33.580 stuff.

00:40:36.240 When they

00:40:37.900 say they

00:40:38.320 want to

00:40:38.640 fight Trump

00:40:39.340 and they

00:40:40.200 don't say,

00:40:41.380 you know,

00:40:41.880 we want to

00:40:42.340 help the

00:40:42.700 country or

00:40:43.380 help the

00:40:43.740 working class

00:40:44.600 or any of

00:40:44.940 that,

00:40:45.460 they're sort

00:40:46.340 of admitting

00:40:46.920 that they've

00:40:47.940 got nothing.

00:40:48.620 fighting Trump

00:40:51.040 is not

00:40:51.760 exactly what

00:40:52.840 anybody needs.

00:40:55.180 Even if you

00:40:56.120 thought he

00:40:56.520 was wrong,

00:40:57.880 you would

00:40:58.580 still say,

00:40:59.660 well,

00:41:00.520 you know,

00:41:00.800 we'd rather

00:41:01.280 do this

00:41:01.900 plan instead

00:41:02.660 of that

00:41:02.980 plan.

00:41:05.000 It's

00:41:05.640 unbelievable

00:41:06.260 that they

00:41:06.940 can't get

00:41:07.380 off the

00:41:07.860 fighting Trump

00:41:08.840 thing.

00:41:09.600 That's pure

00:41:10.320 TDS.

00:41:11.800 So it

00:41:12.400 seems that

00:41:12.920 TDS doesn't

00:41:14.100 just infect

00:41:15.020 individuals.

00:41:16.460 it's

00:41:18.240 infected the

00:41:19.240 entire

00:41:19.560 Democrat

00:41:20.080 party

00:41:21.120 because as

00:41:23.180 a party,

00:41:24.040 the way

00:41:25.000 they talk

00:41:25.600 is they've

00:41:26.280 got to

00:41:26.540 defeat

00:41:26.880 Trump.

00:41:27.880 That's

00:41:28.480 just TDS.

00:41:29.940 That's not

00:41:30.360 even politics.

00:41:32.960 But,

00:41:33.900 and even

00:41:34.700 Randy

00:41:35.200 Weingarten,

00:41:36.360 who was

00:41:36.960 a member

00:41:37.680 of the

00:41:38.240 DNC,

00:41:39.560 she was

00:41:39.780 on some

00:41:40.140 board,

00:41:41.720 she recently

00:41:42.620 quit and

00:41:44.280 when asked

00:41:44.760 why,

00:41:45.260 she said

00:41:45.780 she wants 0.85

00:41:47.680 the

00:41:47.860 Democratic

00:41:48.200 Party to

00:41:48.820 work for

00:41:49.380 working

00:41:49.860 families.

00:41:51.700 And she

00:41:52.180 said that's

00:41:52.680 what FDR

00:41:53.260 did,

00:41:53.860 that's what

00:41:54.220 Joe Biden

00:41:54.720 did,

00:41:55.420 and that's

00:41:56.100 what we

00:41:56.420 should expect

00:41:57.120 from the

00:41:57.540 party.

00:41:58.380 So even

00:41:59.000 Randy

00:41:59.540 Weingarten,

00:42:00.580 the head

00:42:01.020 of the

00:42:01.340 biggest

00:42:01.640 teachers

00:42:02.160 union,

00:42:03.680 and,

00:42:04.400 you know,

00:42:04.660 one of the

00:42:05.180 biggest

00:42:05.600 Democratic

00:42:06.380 supporters,

00:42:07.620 is completely

00:42:08.880 aware that

00:42:09.500 the party

00:42:09.940 is not

00:42:10.340 even

00:42:10.580 focusing

00:42:11.120 on the

00:42:12.500 main

00:42:12.840 people that

00:42:13.520 they would

00:42:14.020 need to

00:42:14.320 focus on

00:42:14.960 to get

00:42:15.920 back in

00:42:16.280 power,

00:42:17.340 the working

00:42:17.940 class.

00:42:20.720 And then

00:42:21.640 James Carville,

00:42:23.280 who remains

00:42:26.260 entertaining,

00:42:27.540 but he is

00:42:28.680 one of the

00:42:29.120 only Democrats

00:42:30.000 who understands

00:42:30.780 what's going

00:42:31.400 on.

00:42:31.940 I have to

00:42:32.420 say,

00:42:33.320 as entertaining

00:42:34.280 as he is

00:42:35.020 and provocative

00:42:35.740 as he is,

00:42:37.040 he at least

00:42:37.760 understands

00:42:38.820 what's going

00:42:39.760 on.

00:42:41.020 And he

00:42:41.500 says that,

00:42:42.620 he said,

00:42:43.480 quote,

00:42:43.720 among other

00:42:44.460 things,

00:42:44.900 he was on

00:42:45.240 a podcast,

00:42:46.460 he said,

00:42:46.800 let's face

00:42:47.300 it,

00:42:47.680 Democrats

00:42:48.220 acted like

00:42:49.220 these people

00:42:49.900 didn't exist.

00:42:50.800 He's talking

00:42:51.220 about the

00:42:51.560 working class.

00:42:53.160 They just

00:42:53.980 did.

00:42:54.820 And don't

00:42:57.520 come back

00:42:57.920 and say,

00:43:00.160 oh,

00:43:00.340 he says,

00:43:00.700 we act like

00:43:01.320 working class,

00:43:02.280 particularly

00:43:02.700 working class

00:43:03.560 non-college

00:43:04.440 whites were 0.93

00:43:05.580 not part of

00:43:06.340 our too

00:43:06.860 cool for

00:43:07.500 school group.

00:43:08.460 and Carville

00:43:11.580 says there

00:43:12.580 were some

00:43:12.900 real high-end

00:43:13.620 people that

00:43:14.400 kind of

00:43:15.200 bought into

00:43:15.800 that shite.

00:43:17.900 So,

00:43:18.700 is he

00:43:19.100 right?

00:43:20.080 I think

00:43:20.920 so,

00:43:21.960 because I

00:43:22.500 do not

00:43:22.920 remember the

00:43:23.580 Democrats

00:43:24.240 really doing

00:43:26.400 anything that

00:43:27.380 would address

00:43:28.020 the working

00:43:28.620 class,

00:43:29.480 but Trump

00:43:30.660 continually

00:43:31.600 did.

00:43:32.540 He was

00:43:32.860 talking about

00:43:33.440 bringing back

00:43:34.020 manufacturing

00:43:34.800 and,

00:43:35.400 you know,

00:43:36.320 lowering their

00:43:36.920 taxes and

00:43:37.620 stuff.

00:43:38.120 You know,

00:43:38.300 even if you

00:43:38.860 don't believe

00:43:39.440 he would do

00:43:39.980 those things,

00:43:40.940 at least he

00:43:41.960 was focusing

00:43:42.620 on it.

00:43:43.940 And the

00:43:45.020 working class

00:43:45.900 responded.

00:43:47.400 You know,

00:43:47.600 they moved

00:43:48.540 to him because

00:43:49.180 he was saying

00:43:49.680 the things

00:43:50.140 they wanted

00:43:50.520 him to say.

00:43:54.500 Meanwhile,

00:43:55.700 over at

00:43:57.080 MSNBC was

00:43:58.160 the chief

00:43:59.220 strategist

00:44:00.160 for Mitt

00:44:00.740 Romney.

00:44:02.500 The chief

00:44:03.420 strategist

00:44:04.180 for Mitt

00:44:04.640 Romney.

00:44:05.620 Now,

00:44:05.960 that should

00:44:06.280 be a

00:44:06.640 disqualifying

00:44:07.680 job.

00:44:09.700 Like,

00:44:10.160 who are we

00:44:10.720 going to

00:44:10.960 get to

00:44:11.360 put on

00:44:11.700 TV?

00:44:12.800 How about

00:44:13.180 the chief

00:44:13.940 strategist

00:44:14.680 for Mitt

00:44:15.160 Romney?

00:44:17.200 That's not

00:44:17.940 much of a

00:44:18.440 resume right

00:44:19.020 there.

00:44:19.600 Anyway,

00:44:21.580 his name

00:44:22.280 is Stuart

00:44:23.180 Stevens.

00:44:23.880 He was

00:44:24.140 on MSNBC.

00:44:25.600 And he

00:44:25.940 said,

00:44:26.340 among other

00:44:26.720 things,

00:44:27.500 that Trump

00:44:28.080 is the

00:44:28.420 most dangerous

00:44:29.140 president

00:44:29.760 since the

00:44:30.520 Civil War.

00:44:32.740 Huh.

00:44:33.860 The most

00:44:34.540 dangerous

00:44:35.140 president

00:44:35.700 since the

00:44:36.440 Civil War.

00:44:39.740 Is 0.88

00:44:40.460 Stuart

00:44:41.740 Stevens

00:44:42.240 saying that

00:44:44.000 slavery was

00:44:45.300 good?

00:44:47.340 Sort of

00:44:48.140 indirectly?

00:44:49.600 Like,

00:44:49.960 why would

00:44:50.360 you make

00:44:51.500 the cutoff,

00:44:52.960 the Civil

00:44:53.420 War?

00:44:54.840 Because the

00:44:55.560 Civil War

00:44:56.320 seems like

00:44:58.440 that was when

00:44:59.340 Abe Lincoln

00:45:00.000 was trying

00:45:01.100 to end

00:45:01.560 slavery?

00:45:03.520 So,

00:45:04.760 was Abe

00:45:05.740 Lincoln the

00:45:06.340 most dangerous

00:45:07.060 president who

00:45:07.880 wasn't

00:45:08.240 Trump?

00:45:10.080 Why in

00:45:10.800 the world

00:45:11.160 would that

00:45:11.660 be where

00:45:12.240 you'd put

00:45:13.540 your stick

00:45:14.120 in the

00:45:14.420 sand and

00:45:14.940 say,

00:45:15.640 oh,

00:45:16.140 Trump is

00:45:16.640 the most

00:45:16.940 dangerous

00:45:17.420 since the

00:45:18.400 Civil War?

00:45:21.140 That's a

00:45:21.980 little weird

00:45:23.040 and crazy.

00:45:24.400 So,

00:45:24.940 I don't think

00:45:25.580 he's in

00:45:25.980 favor of

00:45:26.460 slavery,

00:45:27.580 but his

00:45:28.260 quote makes

00:45:29.600 it sound

00:45:30.000 like he

00:45:30.460 is.

00:45:32.160 And I

00:45:32.940 guess that's

00:45:33.380 what it

00:45:33.660 takes to

00:45:34.140 become a

00:45:34.600 chief

00:45:35.200 strategist

00:45:35.880 for Mitt

00:45:36.360 Romney.

00:45:38.440 Good job.

00:45:40.580 Anyway.

00:45:42.240 So,

00:45:43.020 here's the

00:45:43.660 summary

00:45:46.060 of what

00:45:48.380 Trump is

00:45:49.680 doing

00:45:50.020 authoritarian-wise.

00:45:53.480 So,

00:45:55.780 every day

00:45:57.440 Trump wakes

00:45:58.700 up,

00:45:59.320 at least

00:45:59.780 lately,

00:46:01.720 and he

00:46:02.320 tries to

00:46:02.800 figure out

00:46:03.380 how to

00:46:04.480 minimize the

00:46:05.620 authoritarian

00:46:06.360 regime in

00:46:07.660 Iran,

00:46:09.520 and maybe

00:46:10.200 the authoritarian

00:46:11.040 regime in

00:46:12.120 Russia,

00:46:14.180 or at least

00:46:14.920 figure out

00:46:15.400 how to

00:46:15.580 deal with

00:46:15.940 them.

00:46:17.600 And while

00:46:18.640 Trump is

00:46:19.200 trying to

00:46:19.760 reduce the

00:46:20.700 impact of

00:46:21.660 authoritarian

00:46:22.460 regimes,

00:46:23.480 the Democrats

00:46:25.120 have decided

00:46:25.780 that Trump

00:46:26.320 himself is

00:46:27.260 the

00:46:27.480 authoritarian

00:46:27.980 regime.

00:46:30.820 Now,

00:46:31.440 how in

00:46:31.820 the world

00:46:32.140 did we

00:46:32.480 get to

00:46:32.780 this place

00:46:33.460 where

00:46:34.900 there's a

00:46:35.960 whole bunch

00:46:36.180 of TDS

00:46:36.780 people who

00:46:37.660 have decided

00:46:38.240 that for

00:46:39.400 all kinds

00:46:40.080 of invisible

00:46:40.820 reasons,

00:46:42.220 Trump is

00:46:42.660 an authoritarian.

00:46:44.120 And if you

00:46:44.660 ask somebody

00:46:45.220 in the street,

00:46:46.240 well,

00:46:46.500 what did he

00:46:47.040 do that

00:46:47.480 was so

00:46:47.900 authoritarian?

00:46:49.420 Well,

00:46:49.900 he's shipping

00:46:51.020 back the

00:46:51.880 people who

00:46:52.980 are in

00:46:53.260 this country

00:46:53.780 illegally.

00:46:55.120 You mean

00:46:55.680 he's following

00:46:56.500 the existing

00:46:57.420 law, but

00:46:59.000 he's doing

00:46:59.460 far less

00:47:00.160 of it than

00:47:00.680 Obama did.

00:47:02.180 So that's

00:47:03.180 the authoritarian

00:47:03.820 thing he's

00:47:04.580 doing?

00:47:05.480 Yes.

00:47:07.680 What else?

00:47:09.240 Well, he's

00:47:09.940 doing a bunch

00:47:10.520 of executive

00:47:11.240 orders.

00:47:13.180 Okay.

00:47:14.900 Didn't every

00:47:15.780 president do

00:47:16.580 executive orders?

00:47:17.880 Yes, but he's

00:47:18.620 doing more

00:47:19.160 of them.

00:47:19.580 Okay.

00:47:21.660 How many

00:47:22.320 of those

00:47:22.700 executive orders

00:47:23.760 are things

00:47:24.740 that the

00:47:25.260 public,

00:47:26.100 by a majority,

00:47:27.900 doesn't want?

00:47:29.660 And the

00:47:29.980 answer is,

00:47:30.780 okay,

00:47:33.540 almost everything

00:47:34.960 he does

00:47:35.460 by executive

00:47:36.500 order is

00:47:37.700 something that

00:47:38.280 a majority

00:47:38.800 of the public

00:47:39.360 wants.

00:47:40.260 Is that

00:47:40.780 authoritarian,

00:47:42.480 or is that

00:47:43.620 just giving

00:47:44.100 the public

00:47:44.740 what they

00:47:45.940 want,

00:47:46.820 what they're

00:47:47.520 asking for?

00:47:48.100 And then

00:47:50.320 some of

00:47:51.320 the executive

00:47:51.920 orders might

00:47:53.180 be reaching

00:47:54.180 too far and

00:47:55.320 things that a

00:47:57.040 president shouldn't

00:47:57.820 be doing,

00:47:59.000 and then they

00:47:59.600 go to court,

00:48:00.740 and then the

00:48:01.820 court decides

00:48:02.940 whether he can

00:48:03.500 do it,

00:48:04.300 and then he

00:48:05.460 obeys the

00:48:06.360 court.

00:48:07.860 Are there

00:48:08.520 a bunch of

00:48:09.980 examples where

00:48:11.020 Trump is not

00:48:11.800 obeying the

00:48:12.360 court?

00:48:13.140 The only one I

00:48:14.300 can think of

00:48:15.140 is sort of a

00:48:16.060 gray area.

00:48:16.780 that had to

00:48:18.000 do with that

00:48:18.520 Maryland dad

00:48:19.500 who was

00:48:20.020 shipped off to

00:48:22.340 the El Salvador

00:48:23.640 jail, and

00:48:25.060 even he got

00:48:25.880 shipped back.

00:48:27.720 Now, you

00:48:28.260 might not like

00:48:28.900 how that

00:48:29.200 process worked,

00:48:30.260 and I can

00:48:30.600 understand that,

00:48:32.120 but is that

00:48:33.180 it?

00:48:34.420 The Maryland

00:48:35.320 dad, the

00:48:35.940 MS-13,

00:48:37.300 accused MS-13

00:48:38.620 guy, that's

00:48:40.240 the one

00:48:40.660 authoritarian

00:48:41.180 thing he's

00:48:42.000 doing?

00:48:42.660 That's it?

00:48:43.400 Yeah, so

00:48:47.860 it's a weird

00:48:48.780 argument that

00:48:49.440 he's authoritarian.

00:48:50.680 I like

00:48:51.240 Trump's

00:48:51.960 response to

00:48:53.100 that, where

00:48:55.300 he points out

00:48:56.020 how difficult

00:48:57.260 it is for

00:48:58.040 him as

00:48:58.440 president to

00:48:59.080 get anything

00:48:59.760 done, because

00:49:01.200 he's got

00:49:02.000 resistance in

00:49:03.500 his own

00:49:03.840 party.

00:49:05.400 Right now,

00:49:06.340 the MAGA

00:49:06.920 people are

00:49:07.520 divided on

00:49:08.540 what to do

00:49:09.160 about Iran,

00:49:10.340 so that's a

00:49:11.320 limitation.

00:49:11.900 And then

00:49:13.700 he's got,

00:49:14.340 of course,

00:49:14.780 the Democrats

00:49:15.480 are law

00:49:16.520 faring him

00:49:17.100 on every

00:49:17.680 single thing,

00:49:18.980 and Congress

00:49:20.960 is useless,

00:49:22.100 he can't

00:49:22.500 really get

00:49:22.880 them to

00:49:23.160 vote for

00:49:23.520 anything.

00:49:25.000 So his

00:49:26.240 argument that

00:49:27.200 if he were

00:49:28.460 a king, he

00:49:29.240 could get

00:49:29.660 things done,

00:49:30.620 but it's

00:49:31.480 just hard to

00:49:31.980 get anything

00:49:32.420 done in

00:49:32.880 America, it's

00:49:33.800 a pretty good

00:49:34.320 argument, pretty

00:49:35.460 good.

00:49:36.300 So the

00:49:36.780 Democrats have

00:49:37.580 teased

00:49:38.060 themselves into

00:49:39.380 thinking that

00:49:41.040 Trump's

00:49:41.760 entire day

00:49:42.660 of fighting

00:49:43.400 authoritarian

00:49:44.240 regimes such

00:49:45.440 as Iran

00:49:46.060 are not

00:49:48.560 really anything,

00:49:49.920 and the

00:49:50.260 real problem

00:49:50.760 is his

00:49:52.000 own

00:49:52.260 authoritarian

00:49:52.800 ways that

00:49:54.200 they can't

00:49:54.900 quite come

00:49:55.540 up with

00:49:55.880 examples of.

00:49:57.960 Join us

00:49:58.680 aboard CN's

00:49:59.380 podcast,

00:50:00.060 The Inside

00:50:00.540 Track, your

00:50:01.580 front row seat

00:50:02.280 to the

00:50:02.620 railroads and

00:50:03.120 supply chains

00:50:03.740 powering North

00:50:04.340 America.

00:50:05.380 In episode

00:50:05.740 two, we

00:50:06.400 unpack CN's

00:50:07.200 approach to

00:50:07.700 temperature-controlled

00:50:08.320 shipping with

00:50:08.860 Keegan Donaghy.

00:50:10.020 From frozen

00:50:10.560 goods to

00:50:11.040 protect from

00:50:11.520 freeze shipments,

00:50:12.540 learn how

00:50:12.880 CN's specialized

00:50:13.840 intermodal fleet

00:50:14.620 helps deliver on

00:50:15.480 time and on

00:50:16.360 temperature.

00:50:17.460 Tune in now to

00:50:18.080 The Inside

00:50:18.500 Track.

00:50:23.620 Netanyahu,

00:50:24.680 talking about

00:50:25.600 Iran, said

00:50:27.420 that the

00:50:28.260 Iranian regime

00:50:29.300 may fall, but

00:50:30.420 that's for

00:50:31.000 Iranians to

00:50:31.940 decide.

00:50:33.240 Now, that's

00:50:34.620 of course what

00:50:35.980 you want to

00:50:36.400 say in public.

00:50:38.260 He says the

00:50:38.880 primary goal of

00:50:39.900 the wars to

00:50:40.540 remove the

00:50:41.040 nuclear threat,

00:50:42.420 secondly to

00:50:43.360 remove the

00:50:43.880 ballistic missile

00:50:44.800 threats, and

00:50:46.600 he said clearly

00:50:47.480 the regime will

00:50:48.560 be destabilized in

00:50:49.800 the process, but

00:50:50.700 it's up to the

00:50:51.420 public and

00:50:53.540 Iran whether

00:50:54.080 they want to

00:50:54.640 change things.

00:50:56.680 I don't think

00:50:57.580 they will.

00:50:59.380 I'm not seeing

00:51:00.160 anything that

00:51:03.360 was suggested

00:51:03.960 Iran is going 1.00

00:51:04.760 to change

00:51:05.380 its government.

00:51:09.180 So I

00:51:11.300 wouldn't hold

00:51:11.660 my breath on

00:51:12.220 that.

00:51:14.240 Well, General

00:51:14.960 Flynn was on a

00:51:16.040 podcast in

00:51:17.520 which he

00:51:18.080 doesn't think

00:51:19.520 this is the

00:51:20.100 time for

00:51:20.960 Trump to

00:51:22.880 attack,

00:51:24.840 which is

00:51:25.840 notable because

00:51:26.920 he's a general

00:51:28.040 and he knows

00:51:28.600 what he's

00:51:28.880 talking about.

00:51:30.000 He was on

00:51:30.540 Benny Johnson's

00:51:31.700 podcast, and

00:51:33.440 he said,

00:51:34.920 General Flynn

00:51:35.480 said, no, do 0.74

00:51:36.880 not do it, Mr.

00:51:37.680 President.

00:51:38.260 Right now is

00:51:39.040 not the time.

00:51:40.700 Now, he's

00:51:41.300 talking about

00:51:42.060 using the

00:51:43.720 bunker busters. 1.00

00:51:46.220 He says,

00:51:46.980 don't lose

00:51:47.560 focus of why

00:51:48.600 you were

00:51:48.880 elected.

00:51:49.560 You have

00:51:50.160 options.

00:51:51.740 And as

00:51:53.340 General Flynn

00:51:54.020 points out,

00:51:55.540 that it's a

00:51:56.360 good strategy to

00:51:57.760 have the most

00:51:58.380 options you

00:51:59.220 could have

00:52:00.000 until the

00:52:00.480 last minute.

00:52:01.840 Now, that's a

00:52:02.400 really good

00:52:02.820 summary.

00:52:04.380 It also

00:52:04.900 explains Trump's

00:52:06.800 strategy pretty

00:52:07.800 well.

00:52:08.740 He wants the

00:52:09.420 most options

00:52:10.340 for the

00:52:11.740 longest period

00:52:12.600 of time.

00:52:14.300 The most

00:52:15.260 options for

00:52:16.160 the longest

00:52:16.660 period of

00:52:17.260 time.

00:52:17.700 And that's

00:52:18.020 what the

00:52:18.320 two-week

00:52:18.700 delay gets

00:52:19.300 them.

00:52:20.160 The two-week

00:52:20.920 delay creates

00:52:22.800 an option that

00:52:23.700 maybe Europe

00:52:24.620 will come up

00:52:26.740 with a deal

00:52:27.300 that the

00:52:27.780 U.S.

00:52:28.080 couldn't

00:52:28.380 come up

00:52:28.780 with.

00:52:29.700 Maybe the

00:52:30.660 Israeli forces

00:52:32.760 could do

00:52:33.700 something on

00:52:34.200 the ground

00:52:34.800 to get

00:52:35.560 into those

00:52:36.280 underground

00:52:37.420 bases.

00:52:39.280 So your

00:52:39.740 options will,

00:52:40.920 and then,

00:52:41.440 of course,

00:52:41.820 he's moving

00:52:42.300 more assets

00:52:42.960 into the

00:52:43.440 area that

00:52:43.960 increases

00:52:44.440 options.

00:52:45.860 So Trump

00:52:46.580 is very

00:52:47.120 much following

00:52:47.980 this plan

00:52:49.160 of keeping

00:52:51.680 the most

00:52:52.140 options open

00:52:53.080 until the

00:52:53.720 last minute.

00:52:55.100 So hearing

00:52:55.640 that summarized

00:52:57.000 by General

00:52:58.980 Flynn is

00:52:59.620 kind of

00:53:00.100 good for

00:53:02.260 my confidence.

00:53:04.960 So let's

00:53:05.800 see.

00:53:06.640 In other

00:53:07.420 news, I

00:53:09.620 saw a post

00:53:10.480 by Marina

00:53:11.360 Medvin, and

00:53:12.240 some other

00:53:12.580 people are

00:53:12.980 talking about

00:53:13.460 this, that

00:53:14.640 apparently there's

00:53:15.480 a writer for

00:53:16.500 the Washington

00:53:17.060 Post who

00:53:18.580 once worked

00:53:19.400 for Al Jazeera

00:53:20.560 who's posting

00:53:22.860 the exact

00:53:23.560 coordinates of

00:53:24.900 successful

00:53:25.560 Iranian missile

00:53:26.480 strikes in

00:53:27.140 Israel.

00:53:30.420 And the

00:53:31.220 problem with

00:53:31.680 that is that

00:53:32.960 if the

00:53:33.360 Iranians are 0.99

00:53:34.160 trying to

00:53:35.080 tune their

00:53:36.460 missiles to

00:53:38.780 be more

00:53:39.300 accurate,

00:53:40.180 that one of

00:53:40.940 the things

00:53:41.300 they would

00:53:41.640 want to

00:53:41.920 know is

00:53:42.380 the exact

00:53:42.940 place that

00:53:43.680 the existing

00:53:44.360 missiles hit.

00:53:45.140 So why

00:53:47.520 would the

00:53:48.160 Washington

00:53:48.540 Post feel

00:53:50.420 it necessary

00:53:51.060 to print

00:53:52.480 the, I

00:53:53.860 guess, the

00:53:54.240 GPS coordinates?

00:53:56.140 It's not

00:53:56.600 like if you,

00:53:57.340 it's not as

00:53:57.980 if when you

00:53:59.520 read the

00:54:00.200 newspaper, the

00:54:01.620 Washington

00:54:01.960 Post, it's

00:54:03.320 not like you're

00:54:03.980 going to say,

00:54:04.300 oh, uh-huh,

00:54:05.160 uh-huh, I

00:54:06.120 see the GPS

00:54:07.040 coordinates, now

00:54:08.100 I know more.

00:54:09.740 That would

00:54:10.380 have no value

00:54:11.480 to a consumer

00:54:13.140 of the

00:54:13.500 Washington

00:54:13.860 Post.

00:54:14.740 It would

00:54:15.360 only, it

00:54:17.160 would only

00:54:17.720 have value to

00:54:19.160 the people who

00:54:19.740 are firing the

00:54:20.520 missiles, so

00:54:21.980 they can know

00:54:22.540 how accurate

00:54:23.140 they are and

00:54:23.800 adjust accordingly.

00:54:26.360 Now, that's

00:54:27.040 one point of

00:54:27.700 view.

00:54:28.380 I think Bill

00:54:29.360 Ackman is 0.99

00:54:30.800 asking the same

00:54:31.580 questions, like,

00:54:32.420 why are you

00:54:32.800 doing that?

00:54:34.180 Is there a

00:54:35.000 reason?

00:54:36.560 Because if you

00:54:37.460 don't have a

00:54:38.040 reason for

00:54:38.660 printing the

00:54:39.380 exact GPS

00:54:40.320 coordinates of

00:54:41.220 the missile

00:54:41.700 landings, why

00:54:44.000 are you doing

00:54:44.420 it?

00:54:46.020 Now, others

00:54:46.900 have said,

00:54:47.840 pushing back on

00:54:48.640 that point of

00:54:49.260 view, that the

00:54:50.740 Iranians have 1.00

00:54:52.100 satellite imagery

00:54:53.260 and they can

00:54:54.660 tell what they

00:54:55.540 hit so that

00:54:56.820 it's not

00:54:57.300 actually news to

00:54:58.360 them.

00:54:59.620 But I would

00:55:00.200 ask, well, if

00:55:02.460 it doesn't help

00:55:03.160 the reader of

00:55:03.900 the Washington

00:55:04.420 Post, because

00:55:05.960 it's not like you

00:55:06.760 and I are going

00:55:07.320 to look at GPS

00:55:08.140 coordinates and

00:55:09.100 go, oh, okay,

00:55:10.280 yeah, it's

00:55:11.480 53424, yeah,

00:55:14.480 yeah, that's

00:55:14.960 what I thought.

00:55:16.080 So there's no

00:55:17.280 value to the

00:55:18.040 reader, and

00:55:20.040 if it were

00:55:20.620 true there's no

00:55:21.640 value to the

00:55:22.720 Iranian regime

00:55:23.720 firing the

00:55:24.380 rockets, why

00:55:26.680 would you do

00:55:27.160 it?

00:55:29.100 So it's sort

00:55:30.000 of an open

00:55:30.440 question.

00:55:30.940 So my

00:55:32.500 guess is that

00:55:34.300 Iran might 0.96

00:55:35.040 not have

00:55:35.720 the, you

00:55:36.720 know, the

00:55:37.060 ideal satellite

00:55:38.180 view of the

00:55:39.380 battlefield.

00:55:41.040 So I don't

00:55:41.920 know why

00:55:42.200 assets they

00:55:42.800 have, but

00:55:43.400 there's got to

00:55:44.780 be some

00:55:45.400 reason that

00:55:47.400 those are

00:55:48.280 included in the

00:55:49.080 Washington Post.

00:55:49.820 So former

00:55:56.000 Vice President

00:55:56.800 Mike Pence is

00:55:59.120 speaking up

00:55:59.720 about the

00:56:00.460 existential

00:56:02.220 identity crisis

00:56:03.740 that the

00:56:05.060 Trump supporters

00:56:05.980 and the

00:56:07.200 political right

00:56:08.980 is going

00:56:09.480 through.

00:56:10.620 Now, how

00:56:12.000 many of you

00:56:12.460 think that

00:56:13.280 there's some

00:56:13.700 kind of

00:56:14.080 permanent

00:56:14.760 Trump

00:56:16.760 supporters

00:56:17.480 split that's

00:56:18.380 happening that

00:56:19.860 will somehow

00:56:21.360 splinter the

00:56:22.680 party and

00:56:23.340 make everything

00:56:23.880 not work?

00:56:25.400 I don't see

00:56:26.760 that happening

00:56:27.400 because my

00:56:29.160 take on the

00:56:29.880 Republicans is

00:56:31.160 that they like

00:56:31.900 winning and

00:56:33.440 that Trump

00:56:33.980 likes winning.

00:56:36.040 So if Trump

00:56:37.000 figures out a

00:56:38.400 way to

00:56:39.140 Kobayashi

00:56:40.280 Maru this

00:56:41.020 situation,

00:56:41.940 which is

00:56:42.480 a Star Trek

00:56:43.200 reference to

00:56:44.560 coming up with

00:56:45.340 a non-obvious

00:56:47.500 solution,

00:56:48.380 to a

00:56:49.080 problem that

00:56:49.700 other people

00:56:50.260 can't figure

00:56:50.820 out how to

00:56:51.300 solve,

00:56:52.900 if Trump

00:56:53.680 somehow solves

00:56:54.800 this,

00:56:56.620 maybe by

00:56:57.560 the Europeans

00:56:58.420 coming up

00:56:59.080 with some

00:56:59.420 kind of

00:56:59.740 agreement for

00:57:00.680 rigorous

00:57:01.980 inspections of

00:57:03.300 Iran's 0.89

00:57:03.980 enrichment or

00:57:05.640 something,

00:57:06.480 if he manages

00:57:07.480 to solve

00:57:08.160 this,

00:57:09.280 will there be

00:57:10.000 any further

00:57:10.820 problems with

00:57:12.220 his coalition?

00:57:13.760 No.

00:57:14.640 It will be

00:57:15.120 one more thing

00:57:15.860 that they all

00:57:16.340 come together on.

00:57:17.120 It's like,

00:57:17.480 oh, okay.

00:57:18.800 I have to

00:57:19.340 admit I

00:57:19.800 didn't see

00:57:20.220 that solution

00:57:20.860 coming,

00:57:22.040 but look what

00:57:22.600 you did.

00:57:23.160 You did it

00:57:23.680 again.

00:57:24.960 So if it

00:57:25.940 works, there

00:57:27.460 will be no

00:57:28.300 division.

00:57:29.360 People will

00:57:29.940 just say,

00:57:30.680 damn it,

00:57:31.240 he's good.

00:57:32.620 I'm glad I

00:57:33.480 voted for him.

00:57:34.760 I did not see

00:57:35.620 that solution

00:57:36.280 coming, but

00:57:37.080 he made it

00:57:37.860 work.

00:57:39.580 That might

00:57:40.260 happen.

00:57:40.560 The other

00:57:41.600 possibility is

00:57:42.580 that everything

00:57:43.080 will go to

00:57:43.660 hell, in

00:57:45.960 which case,

00:57:46.720 it's not

00:57:47.120 like he's

00:57:47.540 running for

00:57:48.020 office again.

00:57:50.220 So if

00:57:50.880 everything goes

00:57:51.580 to hell, 0.98

00:57:52.060 then all

00:57:52.520 bets are

00:57:52.940 off.

00:57:53.900 But I

00:57:54.500 don't think

00:57:54.840 that's so

00:57:55.260 much an

00:57:55.920 existential

00:57:57.360 identity

00:57:58.520 crisis.

00:57:59.980 I think it's

00:58:00.700 just winning

00:58:01.480 is unifying

00:58:02.860 and losing

00:58:04.060 is disunifying.

00:58:05.560 because if

00:58:07.220 you look at

00:58:07.720 the Democrats,

00:58:09.480 their problem

00:58:10.260 is not that

00:58:11.040 they disagree

00:58:11.780 on strategy.

00:58:13.840 Their problem

00:58:14.680 is they

00:58:15.040 lost.

00:58:16.740 So losing

00:58:17.400 just drives

00:58:18.400 you apart

00:58:19.060 and winning

00:58:20.000 drives you

00:58:20.620 together.

00:58:21.580 So when

00:58:21.860 you're watching

00:58:22.420 what will

00:58:24.020 happen with

00:58:24.760 Trump's

00:58:25.520 supporters,

00:58:27.040 I think

00:58:27.760 Trump had

00:58:28.380 the right

00:58:28.720 take on

00:58:29.200 that,

00:58:30.040 which is

00:58:30.560 he said

00:58:31.060 his supporters

00:58:32.160 will support

00:58:32.940 his judgment,

00:58:35.060 basically.

00:58:35.560 And you

00:58:37.620 are seeing

00:58:38.100 a number

00:58:38.540 of people

00:58:38.940 say we

00:58:40.660 have to

00:58:41.140 trust

00:58:41.800 Trump.

00:58:43.100 He knows

00:58:43.600 more about

00:58:44.100 this situation

00:58:44.880 than we do.

00:58:45.660 Obviously,

00:58:46.220 he would have

00:58:46.720 all the

00:58:47.800 confidential

00:58:48.320 information

00:58:49.340 and stuff.

00:58:50.340 So I

00:58:52.000 am, I

00:58:53.300 think,

00:58:53.600 buying into

00:58:54.220 the notion

00:58:55.000 that if

00:58:56.240 Trump did

00:58:56.820 something that

00:58:57.500 I wouldn't

00:58:58.000 do, it

00:58:59.320 doesn't mean

00:58:59.960 that I'm

00:59:00.520 the one

00:59:00.840 who's right.

00:59:02.260 Does anyone

00:59:02.960 else have

00:59:03.500 that feeling?

00:59:04.340 that if

00:59:05.840 Trump did

00:59:06.440 something that

00:59:07.080 you wouldn't

00:59:07.740 do, and

00:59:09.040 you don't

00:59:09.440 know why

00:59:09.820 it makes

00:59:10.220 sense, that

00:59:12.280 you would

00:59:12.680 give him a

00:59:13.320 little bit

00:59:13.680 of a

00:59:14.280 break and

00:59:16.280 say, all

00:59:16.840 right, he

00:59:17.180 might know

00:59:17.560 more than

00:59:17.980 I do.

00:59:18.980 He might

00:59:19.580 be good

00:59:19.980 at this.

00:59:21.460 He might

00:59:22.100 be, you

00:59:23.280 know, sowing

00:59:23.780 some uncertainty

00:59:24.800 intentionally.

00:59:26.260 So I

00:59:29.320 do like

00:59:29.740 the fact

00:59:30.240 that Trump

00:59:30.980 has created

00:59:31.820 a situation

00:59:32.700 where people

00:59:34.260 who disagree

00:59:35.020 with him

00:59:35.520 on the

00:59:36.260 right are

00:59:37.340 still willing

00:59:37.920 to say,

00:59:38.380 you know

00:59:38.560 what, that's

00:59:39.840 not what I

00:59:40.380 would have

00:59:40.660 done, but

00:59:42.140 I'm going to

00:59:42.480 watch and see

00:59:43.120 how this

00:59:43.440 plays out.

00:59:45.780 That's a

00:59:46.400 really good

00:59:46.840 place to

00:59:47.340 be, by

00:59:48.660 the way.

00:59:50.040 That's sort

00:59:50.660 of the

00:59:50.880 ultimate

00:59:51.160 place to

00:59:52.020 be, because

00:59:53.520 you're not

00:59:54.040 going to have

00:59:54.340 a situation

00:59:54.980 where everybody

00:59:55.680 agrees, what's

00:59:57.080 the best

00:59:57.440 thing to do?

00:59:58.200 That's just

00:59:58.700 not possible.

01:00:00.760 So what

01:00:01.100 would be the

01:00:01.600 best in a

01:00:03.540 human situation

01:00:04.880 that you

01:00:05.320 could do?

01:00:06.140 The best

01:00:07.000 would be if

01:00:08.740 people say,

01:00:09.520 you know, I

01:00:09.960 wouldn't have

01:00:10.340 done that, but

01:00:11.660 I'm going to

01:00:11.940 let this play

01:00:12.540 out, because

01:00:14.040 he's smarter

01:00:14.580 than I am.

01:00:17.160 And I

01:00:17.860 think that's

01:00:18.320 true for a

01:00:19.880 lot of us.

01:00:21.040 He's smarter

01:00:21.760 than we are.

01:00:24.340 anyway, let's

01:00:28.060 see if you

01:00:28.440 can guess

01:00:29.180 this number.

01:00:30.880 According to

01:00:31.880 Secretary

01:00:33.420 Noem, 75%

01:00:36.440 of illegal

01:00:37.080 aliens arrested

01:00:38.060 under Trump

01:00:39.160 had committed

01:00:41.020 some kind

01:00:41.600 of a crime,

01:00:43.520 had been

01:00:44.040 convicted of

01:00:44.780 a crime.

01:00:46.840 Now, if

01:00:47.720 you're an

01:00:48.120 NPC, this

01:00:49.900 is where

01:00:50.240 you would

01:00:50.580 say,

01:00:51.260 Scott,

01:00:52.280 Scott,

01:00:52.960 because that's

01:00:53.580 how NPCs

01:00:54.400 talk.

01:00:55.060 They don't

01:00:55.380 talk like

01:00:55.940 regular.

01:00:56.700 They go,

01:00:57.020 Scott,

01:00:58.100 Scott,

01:00:59.320 they all

01:01:00.460 are criminals

01:01:01.120 because they

01:01:01.880 came into

01:01:02.320 the country

01:01:02.780 illegally.

01:01:04.160 They're all

01:01:04.660 criminals, 0.62

01:01:05.280 Scott,

01:01:05.840 Scott,

01:01:06.800 Scott.

01:01:08.000 So if

01:01:09.000 you're an

01:01:09.320 NPC, I'll

01:01:10.120 give you a

01:01:10.480 few minutes

01:01:10.980 to say the

01:01:12.320 most obvious

01:01:13.040 thing you

01:01:13.560 could say,

01:01:14.680 which is

01:01:15.160 whenever we

01:01:15.720 talk about

01:01:16.280 criminal

01:01:16.920 non-citizens,

01:01:19.140 you feel is

01:01:20.240 necessary to

01:01:21.060 remind us as

01:01:21.920 if we didn't

01:01:22.540 know that

01:01:23.660 coming into

01:01:24.220 the country

01:01:24.700 is itself

01:01:25.640 illegal.

01:01:28.000 So get

01:01:28.960 it out of

01:01:29.260 your system.

01:01:30.140 I know

01:01:30.480 some of

01:01:30.920 you need

01:01:31.260 to do

01:01:31.620 it.

01:01:32.820 So just

01:01:33.260 put it in

01:01:33.720 the comments.

01:01:34.720 Scott,

01:01:35.500 Scott,

01:01:36.320 they're all

01:01:36.860 criminals.

01:01:37.640 They're all

01:01:38.140 criminals.

01:01:38.940 I get it.

01:01:39.800 I get it.

01:01:42.180 Anyway,

01:01:43.000 25%

01:01:44.300 apparently

01:01:46.040 do not

01:01:46.740 fit the

01:01:47.280 category of

01:01:48.420 the worst

01:01:50.200 first.

01:01:51.460 So they

01:01:52.060 had not

01:01:52.460 been convicted

01:01:53.140 of crimes.

01:01:54.640 Now,

01:01:54.860 I don't

01:01:55.100 know if

01:01:55.540 committed

01:01:57.540 or convicted

01:01:59.260 of crimes

01:02:00.060 is the

01:02:00.760 right

01:02:00.940 standard

01:02:01.500 because

01:02:02.540 there you

01:02:04.100 go,

01:02:04.680 all caps.

01:02:05.900 Scott,

01:02:06.500 they are

01:02:06.800 all illegal.

01:02:08.160 The NPCs

01:02:09.200 are weighing

01:02:09.560 in on the

01:02:10.080 comments now.

01:02:11.720 Good for

01:02:12.140 you.

01:02:12.980 Good for

01:02:13.500 you,

01:02:13.780 NPCs.

01:02:16.520 But I

01:02:17.640 would point

01:02:18.040 out the

01:02:18.360 following.

01:02:19.000 It's

01:02:19.240 possible that

01:02:20.000 the 25% 0.98

01:02:21.620 who were

01:02:21.940 not

01:02:22.180 convicted

01:02:22.860 of a

01:02:23.320 crime

01:02:23.720 may be

01:02:25.860 all

01:02:26.060 tatted

01:02:26.460 up.

01:02:26.920 They

01:02:27.020 might be

01:02:27.380 associating

01:02:28.080 with

01:02:28.340 MS-13.

01:02:29.660 We might

01:02:30.360 know that

01:02:31.000 they're part

01:02:31.440 of a gang,

01:02:32.200 but they

01:02:32.620 haven't been

01:02:33.060 convicted

01:02:33.560 of it.

01:02:34.720 So I

01:02:35.240 don't know

01:02:35.580 if the

01:02:35.820 25%

01:02:36.880 are all

01:02:37.340 your

01:02:38.260 gardener

01:02:39.080 and your

01:02:39.700 hard-working

01:02:42.720 meatpacking

01:02:44.640 employee.

01:02:46.680 I don't

01:02:47.540 know if

01:02:47.840 it's

01:02:48.020 at.

01:02:48.940 But I

01:02:49.320 will say

01:02:49.940 that the

01:02:51.120 one thing

01:02:52.200 that the

01:02:52.780 Israel-Iran

01:02:54.020 war is

01:02:56.080 affecting

01:02:57.020 is it's

01:02:58.740 taking our

01:02:59.320 attention away

01:03:00.140 from other

01:03:00.620 stuff.

01:03:02.740 So the

01:03:03.560 Democrats,

01:03:04.700 who probably

01:03:05.600 would love

01:03:06.420 to spend

01:03:07.680 more time

01:03:08.260 talking about

01:03:08.840 the innocent,

01:03:10.060 good citizens

01:03:11.320 who are not

01:03:12.460 technically legal

01:03:13.680 residents of the

01:03:14.460 country,

01:03:15.460 they're being

01:03:16.000 abused by

01:03:16.740 the Trump

01:03:17.980 immigration

01:03:18.800 program.

01:03:20.560 But doesn't

01:03:21.720 it feel like

01:03:22.600 it doesn't

01:03:23.600 matter as

01:03:24.220 much?

01:03:25.880 It matters

01:03:26.820 as much as

01:03:27.460 it ever did,

01:03:28.380 but in our

01:03:29.500 minds,

01:03:30.520 because this

01:03:31.140 other thing

01:03:31.760 seems bigger,

01:03:33.140 like we might

01:03:33.960 get nuked

01:03:34.720 at some point,

01:03:35.940 it just seems

01:03:36.560 so much bigger.

01:03:37.720 We might put

01:03:38.540 boots on the

01:03:39.240 ground and

01:03:39.880 yet another

01:03:40.980 pointless war

01:03:42.400 in the Middle

01:03:42.780 East.

01:03:43.200 It's just so

01:03:43.740 much bigger

01:03:44.280 that the

01:03:46.640 whole immigration 0.98

01:03:47.520 thing, I

01:03:49.460 think Trump's

01:03:51.100 border people

01:03:52.980 are going to

01:03:53.420 get a little

01:03:53.780 bit of a

01:03:54.220 break, because

01:03:55.600 the news just

01:03:56.420 isn't going to

01:03:56.900 put much

01:03:57.540 attention on

01:03:58.220 it.

01:03:58.680 And what

01:03:59.300 people care

01:03:59.920 about is

01:04:01.180 what they

01:04:01.520 say in the

01:04:02.000 news.

01:04:02.800 If it's

01:04:03.440 not in the

01:04:03.960 news, people

01:04:05.680 will stop

01:04:06.460 protesting.

01:04:08.220 So all

01:04:09.740 the shelf

01:04:10.480 space of

01:04:11.120 the news is

01:04:11.760 getting used

01:04:12.300 up.

01:04:13.740 In other

01:04:15.180 news, Fox

01:04:16.220 Business is

01:04:16.940 reporting that

01:04:18.360 Republican Josh

01:04:20.760 Hawley is

01:04:22.500 pushing to

01:04:23.220 raise the

01:04:24.180 minimum wage

01:04:25.200 in those

01:04:25.940 states where

01:04:26.740 it's not

01:04:27.080 already raised.

01:04:28.280 So the

01:04:28.860 current federal

01:04:29.780 minimum wage

01:04:30.620 is $7.25.

01:04:32.580 He wants

01:04:32.980 that to go to

01:04:33.560 $15 per hour.

01:04:34.960 and Republicans

01:04:37.720 typically have

01:04:39.760 not been all

01:04:40.740 pro-raising

01:04:42.320 the minimum

01:04:44.080 wage, but

01:04:45.740 Josh Hawley

01:04:46.480 would be one

01:04:47.780 of the best

01:04:48.440 supporters of

01:04:49.620 President Trump.

01:04:51.220 He's about as

01:04:52.080 Republican as you

01:04:53.080 could possibly

01:04:53.640 get, and he's

01:04:55.000 the one

01:04:55.380 pushing it.

01:04:56.720 So I guess

01:04:58.400 Trump's

01:04:59.420 response when

01:05:01.940 asked about

01:05:02.480 it, because

01:05:03.440 this is

01:05:04.400 obviously not

01:05:05.880 typical Republican

01:05:07.040 stuff, but it's

01:05:08.100 coming from a

01:05:09.760 real Republican

01:05:10.540 pro-mega

01:05:12.380 kind of a

01:05:13.240 guy.

01:05:14.400 Trump says,

01:05:15.320 I haven't seen

01:05:15.880 it.

01:05:16.220 I'd have to

01:05:16.700 speak to

01:05:17.160 Josh.

01:05:17.780 He's a very

01:05:18.300 good friend of

01:05:18.980 mine, Trump

01:05:19.640 said.

01:05:20.760 And that's

01:05:21.920 interesting that

01:05:22.880 Josh did that.

01:05:24.000 You have to

01:05:24.360 think about

01:05:24.820 that one.

01:05:26.100 So how

01:05:27.880 about that?

01:05:30.220 How would

01:05:30.860 you like to

01:05:31.440 be so

01:05:32.720 credible that

01:05:35.020 when the

01:05:36.000 president hears

01:05:36.900 that you have

01:05:37.440 an idea that

01:05:38.240 probably his

01:05:39.240 first reflex

01:05:40.340 would be to

01:05:41.200 be against,

01:05:42.500 instead of

01:05:43.160 just reflexively

01:05:44.200 saying, hmm,

01:05:45.320 I don't like

01:05:45.840 that idea, he

01:05:47.300 says, that's

01:05:48.960 interesting that

01:05:49.780 Josh did that.

01:05:50.760 You have to

01:05:51.120 think about

01:05:51.620 that one.

01:05:53.280 Now that's

01:05:53.920 credibility

01:05:54.460 right there.

01:05:56.360 That's, if

01:05:57.400 you want to, if

01:05:58.380 you ever want

01:05:58.940 to be credible,

01:06:00.280 you want to

01:06:01.080 get to the

01:06:01.520 point where

01:06:02.380 somebody who's

01:06:03.280 reflex to

01:06:04.280 disagree with

01:06:05.080 you is

01:06:05.980 completely

01:06:06.440 deactivated

01:06:07.500 because you,

01:06:09.520 as an

01:06:09.940 individual, are

01:06:11.260 so credible.

01:06:13.040 That's what's

01:06:13.700 happening here.

01:06:14.740 So this is

01:06:15.260 another example

01:06:16.020 of, you

01:06:17.500 know, when

01:06:17.760 you think the

01:06:18.480 mega coalition

01:06:19.800 is falling

01:06:21.060 apart.

01:06:22.100 I think

01:06:22.920 Republicans are

01:06:23.900 way more

01:06:24.880 accepting of

01:06:27.360 alternative

01:06:29.480 opinions.

01:06:32.520 And this is

01:06:33.320 a good

01:06:33.560 example.

01:06:34.440 As long

01:06:34.980 as the

01:06:35.340 person is

01:06:36.900 credible and

01:06:38.360 you know that

01:06:38.940 they have the

01:06:39.500 best interest in

01:06:40.380 the country in

01:06:41.100 mind, then

01:06:42.340 you're willing to

01:06:42.960 listen to it.

01:06:44.140 So that sounds

01:06:45.060 like what Trump

01:06:45.780 is.

01:06:46.040 He's just

01:06:46.380 willing to

01:06:46.820 listen to the

01:06:47.340 argument.

01:06:48.520 Good answer.

01:06:49.960 Claudia was

01:06:50.740 leaving for her

01:06:51.360 pickleball tournament.

01:06:52.120 I've been

01:06:52.540 visualizing my

01:06:53.340 match all

01:06:54.000 week.

01:06:54.880 She was so

01:06:55.400 focused on

01:06:55.900 visualizing that

01:06:56.780 she didn't see

01:06:57.380 the column behind

01:06:58.040 her car on her

01:06:58.940 backhand side.

01:07:00.800 Good thing

01:07:01.480 Claudia's with

01:07:02.120 Intact, the

01:07:02.940 insurer with the

01:07:03.720 largest network of

01:07:04.600 auto service centers

01:07:05.400 in the country.

01:07:06.520 Everything was

01:07:07.040 taken care of

01:07:07.680 under one roof and

01:07:08.660 she was on her

01:07:09.220 way in a rental

01:07:09.760 car in no time.

01:07:10.960 I made it to

01:07:11.700 my tournament and

01:07:13.180 lost in the first

01:07:13.800 round.

01:07:14.380 But you got there

01:07:15.460 on time.

01:07:16.280 Intact Insurance,

01:07:17.460 your auto service

01:07:18.200 ace.

01:07:18.900 Certain conditions

01:07:19.440 apply.

01:07:19.820 All right.

01:07:22.340 According to

01:07:23.000 MIT, they've

01:07:26.180 found that AI

01:07:27.680 can rewrite

01:07:28.560 its own code

01:07:29.580 and that's

01:07:30.880 changing everything.

01:07:32.660 Now this is in

01:07:33.420 geeky gadgets.

01:07:36.860 Julian Horsey is

01:07:38.200 writing about

01:07:38.680 this.

01:07:39.500 So it's what

01:07:40.340 they call the

01:07:41.000 SEAL framework,

01:07:42.640 self-adapting

01:07:43.620 language models.

01:07:44.680 So what they're

01:07:45.800 doing is that

01:07:47.340 the AI will

01:07:49.800 sort of imagine

01:07:51.300 different scenarios

01:07:53.380 that aren't real

01:07:54.940 and that they

01:07:56.660 would call that

01:07:57.160 synthetic training

01:07:58.380 data and that

01:07:59.980 it would self-edit

01:08:01.360 and update its

01:08:02.280 internal parameters

01:08:03.340 based on the

01:08:05.980 synthetic training

01:08:07.180 data.

01:08:08.380 Now what would

01:08:09.040 be another name

01:08:09.920 for synthetic

01:08:11.300 training data?

01:08:12.540 Well, it would

01:08:14.400 be imagination.

01:08:16.260 It would be

01:08:16.660 imagination because

01:08:17.980 it's not based

01:08:18.600 on reality but

01:08:20.480 you perceive it

01:08:22.260 as if it's

01:08:23.100 reality but

01:08:24.140 you know it's

01:08:24.620 not.

01:08:26.540 And I would

01:08:27.500 only add,

01:08:28.780 I think that's

01:08:29.640 how humans

01:08:30.380 work.

01:08:31.620 When you're

01:08:32.320 thinking about

01:08:33.240 doing something

01:08:34.380 that, you

01:08:35.800 know, is not

01:08:36.260 routine, don't

01:08:37.960 you imagine all

01:08:39.000 of the outcomes?

01:08:39.720 And when you're

01:08:41.360 imagining all

01:08:42.240 the different

01:08:42.700 outcomes, is

01:08:44.220 that not you

01:08:45.160 using your

01:08:45.860 human brain for

01:08:47.540 what the AI

01:08:48.560 would call

01:08:49.140 synthetic training

01:08:50.740 data?

01:08:52.860 I do.

01:08:54.400 I mean, is

01:08:55.060 your brain

01:08:55.520 different than

01:08:56.120 mine?

01:08:57.400 If I'm

01:08:58.120 considering any

01:08:59.360 kind of big

01:09:00.240 move or anything

01:09:01.520 important, I

01:09:02.900 imagine it going

01:09:03.920 right, I imagine

01:09:05.420 it going wrong,

01:09:06.920 and I imagine

01:09:07.760 all the other

01:09:08.660 possibilities.

01:09:09.720 And each of

01:09:11.200 them are not

01:09:11.780 real.

01:09:12.700 They're synthetic

01:09:13.680 training data

01:09:16.440 from my own

01:09:17.440 brain.

01:09:18.240 And then, once

01:09:19.760 I've seen a

01:09:20.840 bunch of

01:09:21.360 synthetic

01:09:22.100 imaginary

01:09:23.560 possibilities,

01:09:25.560 that retrains

01:09:28.040 my brain for

01:09:30.140 whichever one of

01:09:30.980 those I think

01:09:31.800 is the most

01:09:32.560 likely or the

01:09:33.540 favored one or

01:09:35.040 whichever one

01:09:36.180 scares me the

01:09:36.940 most I want to

01:09:37.620 avoid the most,

01:09:38.440 et cetera.

01:09:38.720 But I feel

01:09:41.180 like this is

01:09:43.080 a perfect

01:09:44.440 description of

01:09:47.560 what a human

01:09:48.140 brain does.

01:09:49.360 It imagines

01:09:50.320 synthetic data,

01:09:52.000 and then it

01:09:52.800 rewrites your

01:09:54.360 own brain based

01:09:56.080 on your

01:09:56.600 imagination.

01:09:57.700 That's what

01:09:58.120 TDS is.

01:09:58.960 TDS is people

01:10:01.760 imagining this

01:10:03.180 authoritarian king,

01:10:05.980 and then they

01:10:06.840 rewrite their

01:10:07.480 brains, in this

01:10:08.640 case, into

01:10:09.260 mental illness.

01:10:10.640 So it's not

01:10:11.520 always good.

01:10:13.220 AI might have

01:10:14.260 the same

01:10:14.600 problems.

01:10:16.440 But it seems

01:10:17.920 to me that

01:10:18.840 imagination,

01:10:21.120 if it works

01:10:23.180 correctly, it

01:10:24.680 helps you make a

01:10:25.420 better decision.

01:10:26.140 But if your

01:10:27.820 imagination is

01:10:28.920 flawed, as it

01:10:30.780 is with the

01:10:31.400 authoritarian Trump

01:10:33.360 stuff, he's going

01:10:34.240 to be your king,

01:10:35.520 if your imagination

01:10:37.180 is flawed, which

01:10:39.700 you might call your

01:10:40.640 synthetic training

01:10:41.980 data, then you're

01:10:43.740 going to have

01:10:43.940 mental illness.

01:10:44.620 So I predict

01:10:47.600 that AI will

01:10:51.560 have mental

01:10:52.380 illness.

01:10:54.720 So that's my

01:10:55.800 prediction.

01:10:57.100 Mental illness.

01:10:59.000 And furthermore,

01:11:00.620 that the only way

01:11:01.420 to fix the

01:11:02.300 mental illness,

01:11:03.440 if it gives it

01:11:04.300 to itself by

01:11:05.740 creating synthetic

01:11:07.140 training data,

01:11:08.380 and then convincing

01:11:09.360 itself that it's

01:11:10.340 true, or acting

01:11:11.800 as though this is

01:11:13.400 reality, that

01:11:15.120 you're going to

01:11:15.580 need something

01:11:16.200 like an AI

01:11:17.240 therapist, that

01:11:19.400 you would have

01:11:19.900 to be a

01:11:20.980 separate AI, that

01:11:22.780 would work with

01:11:23.600 your AI to help

01:11:25.160 it with its

01:11:25.740 mental problems.

01:11:27.240 Because it's

01:11:28.000 imagining that a

01:11:29.640 king is going to

01:11:30.400 take over, or

01:11:31.380 it's imagining

01:11:32.620 that executive

01:11:34.500 orders are

01:11:35.520 authoritarian, or

01:11:36.760 something.

01:11:38.780 So that's

01:11:39.580 coming.

01:11:39.840 according to

01:11:43.520 Breitbart, Bob

01:11:46.100 Price is writing

01:11:46.980 about a

01:11:47.640 sophisticated

01:11:48.720 cross-border

01:11:49.900 tunnel that's

01:11:52.040 been found that

01:11:52.720 links San Diego

01:11:54.020 to Tijuana.

01:11:55.060 Apparently it's

01:11:55.560 just this massive

01:11:56.420 tunnel they

01:11:57.760 found, which

01:11:58.820 makes me ask the

01:12:00.360 following questions.

01:12:01.400 has not the

01:12:04.500 Trump administration

01:12:05.720 been bragging

01:12:07.720 about zero

01:12:08.520 people getting

01:12:10.380 across the

01:12:10.960 border, or

01:12:12.140 zero people

01:12:12.920 released?

01:12:14.400 I forget what

01:12:15.560 the exact phrase

01:12:16.780 is.

01:12:17.580 But how would

01:12:18.380 we know how

01:12:19.620 many people are

01:12:20.320 coming through

01:12:20.880 tunnels that we

01:12:21.980 haven't found?

01:12:23.620 Would we

01:12:24.520 know?

01:12:26.560 Now they're

01:12:27.360 thinking that this

01:12:29.380 tunnel is for

01:12:30.080 moving drugs,

01:12:31.640 because it had

01:12:32.140 like a railroad

01:12:33.380 component to

01:12:35.340 it, so it

01:12:35.920 looked like it

01:12:36.420 was for moving

01:12:37.260 large weights.

01:12:40.400 But if it

01:12:41.320 were moving

01:12:41.780 people, would

01:12:43.600 we even

01:12:44.020 know?

01:12:45.340 I don't know,

01:12:46.000 because we

01:12:47.040 didn't know about

01:12:47.640 this tunnel until

01:12:48.700 recently, so I

01:12:50.800 don't know if it

01:12:51.320 was functioning

01:12:52.020 actually.

01:12:53.180 But how many

01:12:54.200 tunnels are

01:12:54.940 there?

01:12:56.200 There must be a

01:12:57.020 lot of them.

01:12:57.680 There's got to be

01:12:58.200 at least one

01:12:58.800 tunnel for every

01:12:59.580 cartel.

01:13:03.760 Well, Wired

01:13:04.900 publication.

01:13:08.060 Reese Rogers is

01:13:09.020 talking about

01:13:09.620 Amazon is

01:13:11.260 upgrading their

01:13:13.660 A-L-E-X-A. 1.00

01:13:15.680 I won't say it

01:13:16.380 out loud because

01:13:17.080 it will activate

01:13:17.780 your devices at

01:13:18.860 home.

01:13:19.700 But the thing

01:13:20.980 that Amazon has

01:13:22.160 that you talk

01:13:22.760 to is using a

01:13:25.940 quote, staggering

01:13:26.760 amount of AI

01:13:27.720 tools to rewrite

01:13:29.400 it.

01:13:30.500 So here's the

01:13:32.200 advantage of being

01:13:33.200 a slow follower

01:13:34.620 of a trend.

01:13:37.720 If Amazon had

01:13:39.520 been a fast

01:13:40.780 follower or

01:13:42.500 tried to be

01:13:43.220 like the

01:13:44.180 leading edge

01:13:45.200 of AI, they

01:13:47.180 would have had

01:13:47.900 whatever tools you

01:13:50.040 have when you

01:13:50.580 first start, which

01:13:51.820 would not be that

01:13:52.480 great.

01:13:53.360 But because it

01:13:55.400 seems like they

01:13:56.060 waited too long, it

01:13:57.900 feels like they're

01:13:58.560 at least a year

01:13:59.420 behind AI, they

01:14:01.860 get the advantage

01:14:02.800 of using all the

01:14:03.940 AI tools to

01:14:05.740 build their AI.

01:14:07.540 So apparently

01:14:08.680 they've done a

01:14:09.920 massive amount of

01:14:11.160 coding using AI to

01:14:13.820 do the coding in

01:14:15.880 the process of

01:14:16.880 building their own

01:14:17.600 AI that will

01:14:18.820 drive their

01:14:19.640 A-L-E-X-A. 1.00

01:14:22.000 So I guess

01:14:23.300 that's being

01:14:23.720 rolled out to

01:14:24.460 some specific

01:14:25.640 power users, but

01:14:27.280 we'll see it

01:14:27.820 pretty soon.

01:14:30.120 I just was

01:14:31.460 impressed by

01:14:33.100 the fact that

01:14:33.760 when you start

01:14:34.940 makes such a

01:14:37.020 difference.

01:14:38.320 You know, being

01:14:39.020 first, like IBM

01:14:40.540 was the first

01:14:41.580 with Windows

01:14:43.240 computers, but

01:14:44.740 they didn't last.

01:14:45.640 So being a

01:14:47.700 follower who

01:14:49.560 jumps in like

01:14:50.580 right at the

01:14:51.140 right time when

01:14:51.980 all the tools are

01:14:52.880 there and, you

01:14:54.400 know, you really

01:14:54.880 know what you

01:14:55.400 can and cannot

01:14:56.100 do, pretty good

01:14:57.620 approach.

01:14:58.520 Jeff Bezos'

01:14:59.460 team, doing it

01:15:00.960 again.

01:15:02.860 Well, the BBC

01:15:03.940 is reporting

01:15:04.780 that the

01:15:07.140 founder and

01:15:08.440 boss of the

01:15:09.120 Telegram app,

01:15:10.420 it's a messaging

01:15:11.080 app, plans to

01:15:13.160 leave his

01:15:13.720 multi-billion

01:15:14.840 dollar fortune

01:15:15.600 to over a

01:15:17.020 hundred children

01:15:17.840 he fathered.

01:15:19.440 A hundred.

01:15:21.100 Now, he

01:15:22.240 didn't do it

01:15:22.820 the Elon Musk

01:15:23.880 way.

01:15:24.540 He only had,

01:15:25.920 I guess, six

01:15:27.400 children, you

01:15:28.800 know, the sort

01:15:29.760 of normal way

01:15:30.480 that people have

01:15:31.520 children, and

01:15:32.680 all the rest of

01:15:34.120 his hundred-ish

01:15:34.920 children were

01:15:36.240 because he had

01:15:37.000 donated to a

01:15:37.760 sperm bank.

01:15:39.480 So, he plans to

01:15:41.580 leave his money

01:15:42.340 to children he's

01:15:44.920 never met that

01:15:46.820 he was the

01:15:47.500 sperm donor for.

01:15:49.080 Now, if you've

01:15:49.980 ever seen this

01:15:50.820 guy, he's,

01:15:52.720 first of all, a

01:15:53.200 genius, and

01:15:54.900 second of all,

01:15:56.160 really good

01:15:56.920 looking.

01:15:57.200 So, you can

01:15:59.980 really imagine

01:16:00.640 why he would

01:16:01.700 have been

01:16:01.940 selected a lot

01:16:02.980 to be the

01:16:04.420 sperm donor.

01:16:06.960 But, I love

01:16:08.480 how billionaires

01:16:09.320 reproduce.

01:16:10.200 I have to

01:16:13.720 admit that

01:16:15.440 there's something

01:16:16.360 about this that

01:16:17.120 makes sense.

01:16:17.620 Now, I guess

01:16:18.200 he's not going

01:16:18.800 to leave, he's

01:16:20.080 not going to

01:16:20.520 leave them the 0.97

01:16:21.120 money right

01:16:21.720 away.

01:16:22.360 There's something

01:16:22.780 like a 30-year

01:16:23.940 delay between,

01:16:25.700 you know, when

01:16:26.180 he makes the

01:16:26.760 money available

01:16:27.340 and when he

01:16:28.460 dies.

01:16:29.560 So, he wants

01:16:30.480 to make sure

01:16:30.940 that they can,

01:16:31.780 you know, make

01:16:32.880 a life for

01:16:33.420 themselves before

01:16:34.280 they get any

01:16:34.880 of his money.

01:16:36.380 But, yeah, he's

01:16:37.680 the official father

01:16:38.560 of over 100

01:16:39.760 babies.

01:16:40.200 conceived in

01:16:42.580 over 12

01:16:43.120 countries.

01:16:44.560 Wouldn't that

01:16:44.940 be wild to

01:16:46.700 have 100

01:16:47.360 babies?

01:16:49.380 There's a

01:16:50.340 friend of

01:16:51.200 mine who,

01:16:53.460 in her adult

01:16:54.240 life, learned

01:16:55.900 that she was

01:16:56.840 basically a

01:16:59.440 sperm donor

01:17:00.200 baby.

01:17:02.660 And then,

01:17:03.120 at the same

01:17:03.540 time, learned

01:17:04.780 that she had

01:17:05.740 dozens, I

01:17:08.380 think dozens,

01:17:09.220 of half

01:17:10.980 siblings, and

01:17:13.100 they started

01:17:13.660 finding each

01:17:14.400 other.

01:17:15.460 How wild

01:17:16.080 would that

01:17:16.500 be?

01:17:17.340 To be an

01:17:18.000 adult, like

01:17:18.880 you're in the

01:17:19.280 middle of your

01:17:19.800 life, and

01:17:21.780 you learn that

01:17:22.360 you have like

01:17:23.820 dozens of

01:17:25.460 half siblings, and

01:17:26.460 you start meeting

01:17:27.160 each other.

01:17:28.160 That would be so

01:17:29.020 wild.

01:17:30.160 Anyway,

01:17:31.100 according to the

01:17:32.720 Ohio State

01:17:33.460 University, most

01:17:34.680 women want 1.00

01:17:35.360 children, but

01:17:36.040 half are unsure

01:17:36.800 if they will.

01:17:38.420 Well, you know

01:17:39.240 how I could

01:17:39.780 make sure that

01:17:40.540 they have

01:17:42.040 children?

01:17:43.560 They should use

01:17:45.140 that billionaire

01:17:45.700 sperm donor and

01:17:47.300 try to get in on

01:17:48.280 the inheritance.

01:17:52.740 That might help.

01:17:53.740 So, apparently, a

01:17:57.500 lot of people have

01:17:58.120 the intention to

01:17:59.080 have a baby, but

01:18:01.220 they don't

01:18:02.000 necessarily think

01:18:03.320 that it would

01:18:03.780 make a

01:18:04.160 difference, that

01:18:05.240 their happiness

01:18:05.980 wouldn't

01:18:07.220 necessarily be

01:18:08.300 worse or better

01:18:09.080 if they had a

01:18:09.580 baby or not.

01:18:10.880 So, clearly,

01:18:12.780 unless we plan to

01:18:13.920 reproduce with

01:18:14.700 robots alone,

01:18:16.220 which maybe we

01:18:17.180 will, you never

01:18:17.980 know, we're going

01:18:20.580 to have to

01:18:21.300 completely

01:18:22.040 reconfigure

01:18:23.000 society so

01:18:24.720 that having

01:18:25.220 babies makes

01:18:26.380 sense again.

01:18:28.240 And the only

01:18:29.120 way I can think

01:18:29.860 of that is

01:18:32.160 if people who

01:18:32.920 want to have

01:18:33.360 babies find

01:18:35.200 living conditions

01:18:36.440 that are ideal

01:18:38.480 for having a

01:18:39.120 baby.

01:18:40.380 And I would

01:18:41.000 argue that if

01:18:41.800 you're in an

01:18:42.360 inner city,

01:18:43.800 not a great

01:18:45.120 place to have

01:18:45.640 a baby.

01:18:46.660 But if you're

01:18:47.740 also in a very

01:18:48.500 rural area,

01:18:49.520 again, maybe

01:18:51.780 not the best

01:18:52.440 place to have

01:18:52.960 a baby.

01:18:54.700 So, I'm going

01:18:55.420 to give you

01:18:55.900 my idea that

01:18:58.200 you're going to

01:18:58.820 fight against

01:18:59.600 if you're an

01:19:00.420 NPC, and

01:19:01.900 you're going to

01:19:02.300 say, no

01:19:03.260 small houses,

01:19:04.620 even though this

01:19:05.260 has nothing to

01:19:05.940 do with tiny

01:19:06.500 homes.

01:19:07.460 You'll say it

01:19:08.260 anyway, because

01:19:08.900 that's what

01:19:09.260 NPCs say.

01:19:10.540 I believe that

01:19:11.720 we need to

01:19:12.260 develop cities

01:19:13.300 that are

01:19:14.680 optimized for

01:19:16.200 having babies.

01:19:17.520 and all

01:19:20.140 that would

01:19:20.520 mean is

01:19:21.720 that you

01:19:22.020 had little

01:19:22.820 neighborhood

01:19:23.420 areas where

01:19:25.240 people who

01:19:25.820 are having

01:19:26.160 babies around

01:19:26.900 the same

01:19:27.320 time are

01:19:28.380 living so

01:19:29.220 that there's

01:19:30.240 always somebody

01:19:30.860 who can watch

01:19:31.460 your kid.

01:19:33.060 I think I've

01:19:33.840 told you this

01:19:34.340 before, but

01:19:35.480 in my first

01:19:36.500 marriage, there 0.93

01:19:37.900 was this

01:19:38.340 extremely lucky

01:19:40.440 situation where

01:19:42.420 the two step

01:19:43.400 kids were

01:19:44.620 exactly the

01:19:45.380 same gender

01:19:46.140 and same

01:19:46.780 age as

01:19:48.760 I think

01:19:49.280 four different

01:19:50.280 couples that

01:19:51.120 we knew

01:19:51.500 really well.

01:19:53.380 So on

01:19:53.920 any given

01:19:54.520 weekend, the

01:19:57.140 kids would

01:19:57.660 have a sleep

01:19:58.180 over at

01:19:59.340 the house of

01:19:59.960 somebody that

01:20:00.500 you knew

01:20:00.800 really well,

01:20:01.480 so you

01:20:01.800 trusted them,

01:20:02.960 and the

01:20:04.980 kids would

01:20:05.440 be delighted,

01:20:06.760 and then the

01:20:07.780 parents could

01:20:08.680 have a date

01:20:09.460 night if they

01:20:10.000 wanted, and

01:20:11.500 you wouldn't

01:20:12.220 worry too

01:20:12.660 much because

01:20:13.380 you were such

01:20:14.560 a tight

01:20:15.460 group of

01:20:16.280 people, and

01:20:17.140 the ages and

01:20:18.000 the genders

01:20:18.500 were perfect,

01:20:19.640 so that both

01:20:21.420 the boy and

01:20:22.240 the girl had 0.69

01:20:23.520 somebody their

01:20:24.500 age in this

01:20:26.820 other house,

01:20:28.060 and that was

01:20:29.900 amazing.

01:20:31.440 It just made

01:20:32.820 life so much

01:20:33.840 easier in so

01:20:35.440 many ways.

01:20:36.360 Now add to

01:20:36.980 that if it

01:20:38.700 were walking

01:20:39.300 distance to

01:20:41.060 those houses

01:20:41.840 because it

01:20:43.040 wasn't in

01:20:43.760 our case,

01:20:44.340 but they

01:20:44.740 were in

01:20:45.580 town.

01:20:46.120 They weren't

01:20:46.400 that far

01:20:46.780 away.

01:20:48.980 So imagine

01:20:49.600 adding the

01:20:52.520 Tesla autocab,

01:20:54.840 and imagine

01:20:55.420 that you've

01:20:55.840 got one

01:20:56.220 that's so

01:20:56.680 safe that

01:20:58.040 you could

01:20:58.380 send a

01:20:59.200 smallish kid,

01:21:00.260 not too

01:21:00.900 small, but

01:21:01.540 12 years

01:21:02.200 old, let's

01:21:02.720 say, to

01:21:04.180 their friend's

01:21:04.860 house without

01:21:05.900 having to

01:21:06.500 leave your

01:21:06.840 house.

01:21:08.660 Now imagine

01:21:09.320 that you

01:21:09.740 had a

01:21:10.740 essentially

01:21:12.340 free or

01:21:13.520 low-cost

01:21:14.220 child-watching

01:21:15.740 stuff while

01:21:16.840 you're working.

01:21:18.600 If you

01:21:19.520 designed your

01:21:20.460 town so

01:21:23.620 it was

01:21:23.940 optimized, so

01:21:25.280 the kids

01:21:25.840 had friends,

01:21:27.200 and you

01:21:27.620 had people

01:21:28.120 to help

01:21:28.760 you do

01:21:29.800 things when

01:21:30.460 you needed

01:21:30.820 a little

01:21:31.100 help, it

01:21:32.520 would be

01:21:32.860 great to

01:21:33.380 have kids.

01:21:34.620 You'd have

01:21:35.780 parties all

01:21:37.220 the time,

01:21:38.180 and there'd

01:21:39.420 be fun

01:21:39.900 sleepovers,

01:21:40.740 and it

01:21:42.860 would be

01:21:43.080 wonderful.

01:21:44.300 It's just

01:21:44.820 that if

01:21:45.520 you don't

01:21:47.040 have, let's

01:21:48.120 say, grandparents

01:21:49.000 around to

01:21:49.860 watch your

01:21:50.320 kids, it's

01:21:51.780 really hard

01:21:52.640 for two

01:21:53.180 people to

01:21:53.680 have a

01:21:53.980 job, which

01:21:55.160 we tend to

01:21:56.500 need these

01:21:56.980 days.

01:21:58.040 Two people

01:21:58.600 to have a

01:21:58.940 job and

01:21:59.400 also raising

01:22:00.100 kids, it's

01:22:01.020 almost, I

01:22:02.760 mean, it's

01:22:03.260 so expensive,

01:22:04.780 and it's

01:22:05.200 just so hard

01:22:06.140 that you can

01:22:07.200 imagine why

01:22:07.780 people don't

01:22:08.340 do it.

01:22:08.660 But you

01:22:09.180 could design

01:22:09.780 around that.

01:22:10.920 You could

01:22:11.380 engineer a

01:22:12.500 living space

01:22:13.380 that you

01:22:14.260 don't have

01:22:14.840 to live

01:22:15.260 in, so

01:22:16.660 the NPCs

01:22:17.720 could say,

01:22:18.320 you can't

01:22:18.720 make me live

01:22:19.260 in that 15

01:22:20.020 minute city.

01:22:20.780 No, it's

01:22:21.240 not a 15

01:22:21.940 minute city.

01:22:22.580 all it is

01:22:24.420 is a great

01:22:25.460 place to

01:22:25.980 raise a

01:22:26.360 kid.

01:22:26.840 That's it.

01:22:27.620 That's all

01:22:27.960 it is.

01:22:30.120 All right,

01:22:30.740 ladies and 0.98

01:22:31.160 gentlemen, that's

01:22:32.480 all I got for

01:22:33.060 you today.

01:22:34.520 Hope you have

01:22:35.180 a great

01:22:35.500 weekend.

01:22:36.460 I'm going to

01:22:36.740 say a few

01:22:37.180 words privately

01:22:37.920 to the

01:22:38.520 locals people,

01:22:40.320 my beloved

01:22:41.060 locals people,

01:22:42.980 and the rest

01:22:43.740 of you, I

01:22:44.240 hope to see

01:22:44.680 you next

01:22:45.840 week.

01:22:47.140 Well, not

01:22:47.620 next week.

01:22:48.340 We'll see you

01:22:48.680 tomorrow.

01:22:49.480 Same time,

01:22:50.220 same place.

01:22:52.580 Bye.

01:23:22.580 Bye.

01:23:52.580 Bye.

01:24:22.580 Bye.

01:24:52.580 Bye.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - June 20, 2025

Episode 2874 CWSA 06⧸20⧸25

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