Trump and Iran have a ceasefire, and it's a good one. If it holds, it'll put Trump at the top of the list of the best presidents of all time. And if it doesn't hold, it won't put him there.
00:02:22.020The 12-day war is just such good branding that I think one of the reasons he was angry that both sides were cheating a little bit in the ceasefire
00:02:35.740is that it was turning it into a 13-day war, and that's really bad branding.
00:03:00.420Well, as you know, Iran had to respond by firing 14 ballistic missiles at a U.S. base, but we were warned in advance, so there was no damage.
00:04:25.220But J.D. Vance says, we have destroyed the Iranian nuclear program, and zero Americans have died.
00:04:32.100Now, if the ceasefire holds, and for at least the foreseeable future, Iran does not try in any visible way to recreate its threat to its neighbors,
00:04:49.380that might end the question of who was our best president of all time.
00:04:57.240It's going to put Trump right at the top of the best presidents of all time, right?
00:06:09.720And some other place that was involved with Iranian regime security.
00:06:16.120So, it looked like Israel was doing its best to maybe create a situation for regime change without being too directly involved on the ground, because it was just bombs falling from the air.
00:06:33.580I don't know if that would have worked, but I doubt it.
00:06:37.920I doubt it would have been enough for a regime change.
00:06:40.540But then, Trump, on Sunday, he teased the idea of regime change, but he didn't say America would do it, or Israel.
00:06:51.480He just said, quote, it's not politically correct to use the term regime change, but if the current Iranian regime is unable to make Iran great again, why wouldn't there be a regime change?
00:07:05.760Now, that was very clever, because if you're in Iran, and you see the President of the United States, who just dropped 12 bombs through six holes, which is really impressive, that your military can pull that off, and 14 bunker busters in total.
00:07:27.760And then, you see that same guy talking about regime change, even if he's just sort of talking around the edges of it, how does that make you feel?
00:07:40.940It makes you feel like he can wake up in five minutes and just say, do we have one more of those bunker busters?
00:07:52.200Because we know where the Supreme Leader is.
00:08:05.860So, if you're doing a persuasion filter on this, the persuasion filter, this is brilliant.
00:08:16.920It's brilliant to say that regime change is in the offing, like it's one of the options, but without saying that you would be part of it, knowing that we could.
00:08:30.140So, I think that might have been one of the most important parts of getting to the ceasefire, maybe that Trump kept it in play, the idea that regime change, you know, I'm not saying I'd do it.
00:09:10.960Now, apparently, Iran never really had much of an option for mining the Straits of Hormuz or closing that off because they would have destroyed their own economy.
00:09:23.740And the U.S. and Israel would probably go, huh.
00:09:29.100So, the two entities that Iran was most angry at, the U.S. and Israel, not terribly affected if the Strait of Hormuz had been closed.
00:09:41.740And we probably could have opened it up again with, you know, a certain amount of work.
00:09:46.100And it just would have made all the neighbors more angry at Iran than they already were.
00:09:53.640So, that wasn't really much of an option.
00:09:56.340And apparently, having Russia as one of your closest allies doesn't help at all.
00:15:03.800And it looks like Trump was saying, if you do this, you're going to snatch away from me one of the greatest accomplishments of any president ever.
00:15:14.540And just imagine those two possibilities.
00:15:18.740One, the greatest president ever pulling off the Kobayashi Maru, the impossible ceasefire.
00:15:29.300The other possibility was that Israel would embarrass him in public and that would be his brand forever.
00:15:41.260That Israel pushed him around and he was just a puppet to Israel.
00:15:48.380And when he said to the press that they've been fighting so long they don't know what the fuck they're doing and that it was reported that he had what has been described as a firm phone call with Netanyahu.
00:16:04.020Do you think he used any F-words when he was talking to Netanyahu?
00:16:14.300And he's really good at knowing when to drop the F-word.
00:16:21.220So Trump was put in a situation where he could be forever one of the greatest presidents doing one of the most impressive things you've ever seen any president ever do.
00:16:34.020Or he could be turned into a chump by Netanyahu.
00:16:39.760So how would you like to be Netanyahu and be on the other end of that conversation?
00:37:37.300I mean, they say they were not aiming for a regime change.
00:37:41.600But, you know, governments say things.
00:37:44.080But privately, did they want a little bit of regime change?
00:37:47.740Their bombing in the final days looked like they were bombing specifically to try to make it more likely that there would be a popular uprising and regime change.
00:37:59.760So I don't think they got everything they wanted.
00:38:03.440And I don't think that they destroyed.
00:41:14.640And let's talk about all the disunity in the Trump-supporting world, the MAGA people.
00:41:24.380As you know, there were a number of notable personalities who were very anti-war and anti-U.S. being involved directly.
00:41:35.180So Tucker Carlson, comic Dave Smith, you know, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Steve Bannon, they are some of the strongest Trump supporters in general.
00:41:47.920But they had some legitimate complaints and they had some legitimate criticisms.
00:41:59.760I feel like it's time to get the band back together.
00:42:05.420You know, it's sort of like, well, the band broke up for a little bit so they could argue with each other about what song to put on the album.
00:42:12.640But now it's time to put the band back together.
00:42:14.960I saw a comic Dave Smith do a post on X that, I can't paraphrase it, but essentially he was giving Trump credit for what looks like a speedy end to the conflict.
00:42:32.280And I expect the other people who had been doubting the wisdom of getting involved, I suspect that they will all come around to the point of view of, well, you know, there was a risk.
00:42:50.360And we did not necessarily trust that Trump could get this done, but damn it, he did.
00:42:56.100So, it's time to get the band back together.
00:43:00.420If you're going to spend even one minute saying that other Trump supporters are pieces of crap and they got everything wrong, you're going to be like the vaccination people.
00:44:08.800One of the things I always say is that when people make a prediction that's statistically based and things go the other way, that doesn't make them wrong.
00:44:27.420If Steve Bannon and Tucker and comic Dave Smith and Marjorie Taylor Greene, to name a few, if what they were saying is that history tells us that getting directly involved almost always goes wrong, and then it goes right?
00:44:52.680They did not predict the right outcome, but they're not wrong.
00:44:58.480If they say every time we do this, it goes bad, that's true.
00:45:03.560If Trump is the first person who can Kobayashi Maru the situation and make direct military involvement go right, well, that's the unexpected low percentage bet.
00:45:20.900If you said to yourself, if you said to yourself, I trust Trump so much that I think he can defy all of history and do the Kobayashi Maru, if you're new to this, that's a Star Trek reference to doing the impossible, the Kobayashi Maru.
00:45:41.000It's an intentionally impossible situation that Captain Kirk still made work.
00:45:53.680What we needed was really strong critics because every time the U.S. says, should we get directly involved in a war, do you want everybody to line up behind the Commander-in-Chief every time, even if they're big fans of the Commander-in-Chief?
00:46:14.340Do you want them automatically to say, yeah, let's drop some bombs.
00:46:55.300So if you're saying to yourself, these MAGA people, I will push them off to the garbage dump for being wrong about this, I think that's the wrong take.
00:47:08.740The right frame is that every single time the U.S. wants to drop some bombs or get militarily involved, you want critics.
00:47:31.120So I would ask you to just be a little bit magnanimous about the fact that having people on both sides of an issue that important, very important, very useful.
00:49:15.720I like the fact that he's principled and consistent.
00:49:21.960He's principled and consistent in what he's pushing for.
00:49:27.020Now, there are times I disagree with him, and that's okay, because you need a Massey.
00:49:36.560So I can see why Trump doesn't love it, because it makes Trump's job much harder, because Massey is very effective at getting attention, and his views are principled.
00:49:50.580But at the same time, I love that he exists, so he's a good, good voice of reason, and if Trump can't overcome that voice of reason to get what he wants,
00:50:05.740well, I would say that that's a bar that's not too high.
00:50:11.600He can overcome it, if the reason is good enough, and his instinct suggests he should.
00:50:20.840Lindsey Graham, he was pushing for regime change, but I guess he's not now.
00:50:28.120He said, on Hannity, he said, let's put this in context.
00:50:31.260In a few hours, Donald Trump reversed the damage done to America by Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan.
00:52:57.100But I would expect that Trump's approval level is going to go up a little bit.
00:53:02.680I do not think that the Hakeem Jeffries, oh, sure, it was one of the greatest successes of any president plus military that we've ever seen.
00:53:13.740And then say, but he shouldn't have done it.
00:53:16.600He should have consulted with us first.
00:53:18.340The Democrats are just so consistent at finding the only thing that nobody gives a shit about and turning that into their main issue.
00:53:32.580And let's see what else the Democrats are doing that's funny.
00:53:36.480So, Rosie O'Donnell, who's at her right away in Ireland, according to Breitbart, she's promoting a recount of Trump's victory over Harris in 2024.
00:55:08.780I saw a post on X by a user called Shavireshtas, who points out that the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites did not create a single protest in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, UAE, Qatar, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, Yemen, and most importantly, in Iran itself.
00:55:35.240So, how close is Trump to improving the Abraham Accords to get Saudi Arabia and everybody else in there?
00:55:51.600Because what you don't realize, because we're focusing on the bombs, the ceasefire, if it holds, is going to make it possible for the Abraham Accords, which already have some of the Middle East countries involved, it's going to allow the rest of them to join.
00:56:13.740Because it's going to look like Iran, which was always the fly in the ointment, it looks like it's been neutralized, at least for now.
00:56:23.580So, there is a part two of this victory that's as big as this.
00:56:31.260And it's not guaranteed, but it's pretty close, pretty close to being guaranteed.
00:56:40.060I would say that Saudi Arabia has probably already decided to join the Abraham Accords.
00:56:47.480And they're waiting for the right moment and the right way to do it.
00:56:51.380And whether you think this is good or bad, Gaza has been largely forgotten.
00:57:02.420Now, I don't want to minimize the tragedy and the death and despair that's going on there, but our attention has been completely diverted.
00:57:14.220And that's good for Israel for doing what it wants to do in Gaza.
00:57:18.180I don't know if the Gaza situation will prevent the Abraham Accords from growing to their next obvious level.
00:57:28.200It might, but at the same time, it looks like the Iranian situation is bigger.
00:57:37.200And I've got a feeling that something good is going to happen really soon with the Abraham Accords.
00:57:50.520No, probably not there already, but close.
00:57:53.500And he's set to meet with Zelensky of Ukraine.
00:57:58.100So do you think, is it possible that because of Trump's big victory with Iran, do you think that that would make him more likely to get something done with Ukraine?
00:58:49.640So, you know, if my money were involved, I wouldn't bet on it.
00:58:53.680But it does feel like the psychology has moved so, so firmly in Trump's favor that anything else he wants to get done is a little bit more likely.
00:59:08.600And like I say, there's no connection between Ukraine and, you know, Israel and Iran.
00:59:46.840The Supreme Court ruled that Trump is allowed to deport violent illegals to countries that they are not from.
00:59:57.120So I don't know how much they wanted to do that, but it's legal now.
01:00:01.740And even so, there's a Boston judge who's decided to overrule the Supreme Court and not allow it.
01:00:09.540So I don't know what happens to a Boston judge when the Supreme Court has ruled and you decide to directly and grossly go against this ruling.
01:00:26.920And then apparently the Trump administration got a pledge from 75% of the health insurers to get rid of some big bureaucratic mess that was preventing people from getting good coverage.
01:00:42.260It has something to do with reducing insurance companies' prior authorization requirements.
01:00:51.820So I don't know the whole details there.
01:00:54.980But apparently this so-called prior authorization requirement was causing people just not to get the health care they needed.
01:01:02.920And it looks like the Trump administration has got them all to say, yeah, we're going to take care of that.
01:01:11.760Then also, as Axios is reporting, there is some chance, I don't know the odds, that Trump's big, beautiful bill gets approved before July 4th.
01:01:25.620But one of the things that I think I've taught you, persuasion-wise, is if you put an artificial deadline on something, it makes it more likely to happen, like way more likely.
01:01:44.440Now, is July 4th a natural deadline or a totally artificial deadline?
01:01:54.680It would be nice, but it's not necessary.
01:01:59.380However, the fact that it's nice and not necessary might make it a lot more likely that it happens.
01:02:06.760So it's possible that Trump will also get the win of all wins by getting his big, beautiful bill passed.
01:02:17.780Now, I have my own criticisms about the spending, but there's no doubt that it would be seen as a giant victory for Trump and MAGA if he gets that pass.
01:02:28.940So, again, I say, Trump is having the summer of all summers.
01:02:37.520Like, I've never seen anything like this, really.
01:02:46.280I hadn't talked about this before because I thought it was too much of a local story in New York.
01:02:52.180But apparently a socialist might become the next mayor of New York.
01:02:59.360This guy, Zoran Mamdani, a 33-year-old guy with a very light resume for politics.
01:03:06.920But he's a socialist, and what he's promising, which apparently has brought him to, at least in polling, looking like he might win over who's he running against, Andrew Cuomo.
01:03:27.020So here's what he's promising for New York City.
01:03:31.320He wants to freeze rents on rent-stabilized apartments.
01:03:40.060He wants to invest $70 billion, I don't know where that comes from, in publicly subsidized housing.
01:03:46.380He wants to open up public land for housing developments and more.
01:03:51.040He wants free bus rides and government-owned grocery stores.
01:08:22.020Meanwhile, in Florida, according to Newsmax, Florida is going to build a holding place in the swamp for migrants they want to detain that need to be shipped back, I guess.
01:08:40.180And the only reason I'm reading this story, because there's nothing interesting about a migrant facility,
01:08:46.480is that they're going to call it the Alligator Alcatraz.
01:08:50.080I just like the branding, Alligator Alcatraz.
01:08:55.700So that's where, I guess that was nicknamed by the Attorney General, James Othmeyer.
01:09:08.600And then Ukraine is reporting, according to Newsmax, that they thwarted an assassination attempt against Zelensky.
01:09:17.440And there was some Polish guy who was working for Russia who tried to, allegedly, he tried to get a drone to kill Zelensky, but they foiled the attack.
01:09:30.580Now, my prediction is, I feel like all politicians will be too vulnerable to drone attacks when they're traveling.
01:09:43.380Maybe not so much when they're in their own, you know, in their own headquarters.
01:09:47.700But I don't see how leaders could go out in public in, like, one year.
01:09:54.260A year from now, every individual who wants to assassinate a world leader will be able to launch a drone that can't be jammed.
01:10:06.080And they'll just say, all right, here's the GPS coordinate, but if that doesn't work, just use facial recognition and build a little AI into it.
01:10:18.160I feel like the ability to assassinate a world leader is going to go to, yeah, you can do it every time they go out in public, because the drones will just be that good.
01:10:33.440Anyway, according to Wallahub, the Epoch Times is reporting, San Francisco is America's worst-run city.
01:10:44.360I like to mention all the times that my state is considered the worst of the worst, but there it is.
01:10:58.140However, I would tell you that San Francisco has been bad before and got over it.
01:11:05.320I lived in San Francisco in the 80s when I was very young and first came to California.
01:14:08.100We'll follow the news and find out if Trump's victory is holding.
01:14:12.120There will, of course, be challenges to it.
01:14:16.540I would not be surprised if there are some breaks in the ceasefire, but I think there's a good chance that Trump will be able to hold it all together.