Episode 2884 CWSA 07⧸01⧸25
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 28 minutes
Words per Minute
129.13205
Summary
In this episode of the highlight of human civilization, Scott Adams and Adams talk about the stock market, AI and the future of the future, and what would happen if AI could no longer train for free? And what would become of the world if it couldn't pay for its services?
Transcript
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come on in grab a seat we got lots of chairs available up in front
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well you look marvelous this morning even better than normal dare i say it looks like you've lost
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weight gotten a tan and become sexier yeah that's you well stocks are down a little bit
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um tesla was down over seven percent but now it's down five percent so maybe people will get over that
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that would be the optimistic take if people just get over it
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all right let's get our comments going and then you know what happens then that's right you get the
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good morning everyone and welcome to the highlight of human civilization it's called coffee with scott
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adams and it's the best time you'll ever have in your life but if you'd like to take a chance
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i'm making it even better than that well all you need for that is a cup or a mug or a glass
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a tank or chalice or stein a canteen jug or flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite
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liquid i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure with dopamine at the end of
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the day the thing that makes everything better it's called the simultaneous sip and it happens
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oh that was a good one well done your synchronicity is excellent today
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mike bends went for six hours on a live stream well i could top that
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no we won't uh all right i wonder if there's any new science that they could have saved some money
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just by asking me instead of doing the study hmm oh here we go according to neuroscience news
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and you won't believe it but people prefer human empathy even when ai says the same thing
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how how many of you thought that the research was going to find that people liked
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ai empathy the same as human empathy is there anyone who thought those would be similar
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next time you don't need to do the science just ask me i'll give you i'll give you all the answers
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you need well according to unusual whales on x amazon now has one million robots working in their
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their various uh warehouses one million robots so but at least they're mostly not the intelligent
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kind that'll come and kill us all but one million robots on amazon wow uh speaking of technology
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a company called cloudfare hmm sounds familiar but i think it's a different company cloudfare uh will now block
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ai bots from your website so if you're the new york times for example and if you were to hire a
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cloudfare to protect your website then if an ai bot tried to read it for trading purposes it would block it
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and it would also offer a a revenue model where the ai could still read your site and still trade on it
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but it would have to pay it would have to pay it would pay a micro payment for trading on your website
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so we went from ai is stealing all of your um your intellectual property which you could argue that it was
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um we went all the way to you can't read my intellectual property i'm gonna hide it
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but if you want to taste you have to pay for it and i thought to myself i wonder if i could use that
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how much does cloudfare cost because don't you think that ai looks at the dilbert website yeah right now
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it doesn't have much on it but it will pretty soon so maybe i could maybe i could monetize that i doubt it
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um and also what happens to ai as a business model if it could no longer train for free
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wouldn't you say that the main reason that ai is even such a big deal is that their their primary input
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is other people's work that they take for free what if they couldn't get it for free well we might find
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out because if this cloudfare product catches on um then the ai will have to pay for its content i don't
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know if it would be as economical then well senator chris murphy says democrats would win a lot more
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elections if they borrowed some of the techniques from our favorite socialist zoran momdani who's running for
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mayor of new york um but he's not talking about the the socialist communist parts he's talking about
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the affordability and the shifting power from you know the powerful to the less powerful and i think
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he's right about that but why is it that when the the democrats finally find somebody who knows how to
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message knows how to come up with policies that his own people would vote for um he's a great communicator
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and policy guy why did he have to be the communist like they they couldn't get one one person
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in the entire democrat party of tens of millions of people they couldn't find one person who could also
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say we need to work on affordability and shifting power but i'm not gonna try to seize your means of
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production nobody there was nobody in the entire party who could just say the right thing without also
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being anti-semitic and communist nobody tens of millions the closest you could get was a communist
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anti-semite now that's what people are saying now when uh you probably heard me say the other day that
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when trump called uh um a mondi mamondi when trump called him a communist i pushed back on that a little bit
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and i said well he's not a communist he is a socialist and you know that could be bad enough
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if you go too far with your socialism so i wasn't defending him i was just saying that that word communist
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is a little bit hyperbolic boy was i wrong so i looked up the definitions of communist versus
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socialists and first of all they're not that different the the communist problem is that you
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know generally some dictator is in charge but they also have uh control of the means of production
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now either the socialist or the communist model could still end up with a dictator but
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um but um but there's a video in of 2021 where mom donnie is answering some questions on a video and he actually says as an aside
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that the end goal is seizing the means of production that's pure communist
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so i would like to apologize to president trump and everybody else who was calling him a communist
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while i was scoffing at it like he's not a communist i mean come on people what are the odds that a
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communist would be leading in the polls to be mayor of new york i mean that's crazy it's crazy and so i
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rejected it as being something that you know couldn't really happen in the real world well i was wrong
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100% wrong he is a flat-out communist he's a pure communist the part about the dictator is optional
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you know dictator is something that arises out of it but it's not how it starts
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and uh if you say that you want to seize the means of production that's not adding a little bit of
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socialism on top of your capitalism that's that's pure communist so trump is right on that i i join you
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in calling him a communist you might be a little bit anti-semitic too we'll talk about that a little bit
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but uh the big beautiful bill is still being ground up like sausage in the senate i guess they have the
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voter rama last night maybe it's still going the voter rama is when usually i think the minority party
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recommends all kinds of things to add to a bill and then the majority party votes all of it down
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so it's a complete waste of time that for some reason they feel like they need to do i don't know
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what that reason is i guess just the process requires it but they're in that weird process now but one of
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the things that apparently they rejected was uh kicking illegals off of medicaid
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it didn't pass it didn't even pass with the republicans so as 56 44 was a vote
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susan collins voted no on that one according to the gateway pundit
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so we got that going on um wasn't that like one of the main things the republicans wanted
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so at this point we started with this bill over in the house of representatives that gets sent to the
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senate and they can change it all up and make a bunch of changes and then the parliamentarian gets
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a hold of it makes a bunch of changes and then they do the voter rama makes a bunch of changes which
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have you know they've already negotiated a bunch of changes within the senate itself
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so now this bill that i feel like started out as a semi-good idea we don't even know what it is anymore
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or we just don't even know so the one thing we could know for sure is the people involved don't
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understand what they're voting for entirely that part i think we we know for sure because like i said
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it's 25 different topics within that bill and they're all kind of convoluted and backwards and
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you know doesn't make sense on the surface but there's some backstory that makes it make sense
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how many how many people in the senate do you think studied all of that not many
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well according to unusual whales a site on x um and i think this was based on asking grok
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well no i'll just say that grok agrees this comes from bloomberg so unusual whales is just reporting
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what bloomberg said and they say the senate's version of the big beautiful bill will cost the
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bottom 20 percent of taxpayers an average of 560 a year so that would say that it would make poor people
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more poor and while giving an average boost of six thousand dollars to those at the top end
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so according to bloomberg it does indeed take money from the poor and give it to the rich
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the rich what do you think is that a fair interpretation and then i asked grok if that was
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accurate and grok said largely yes that it would be accurate that it would cost the bottom 20 percent of
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taxpayers but it would benefit the people at the top end now do you believe that that is knowable
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do you believe that ai can do the math or bloomberg can do the math no i guarantee that this does not
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capture what would happen with this bill over 10 years because nobody could calculate that this is very
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much like uh climate models do you think a climate model can accurately tell you what the temperature will
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be on average in 20 years no we can't do that do you think a budget estimate that has you know hundreds
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of moving parts do you think it can predict what's going to happen in even one year much less 10 years
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which is the term they're looking at no no that's not a thing it's not a thing that anybody knows what's
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going to happen probably when they look at these numbers they're ignoring any stimulus benefit
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which is what trump would say if you don't count the stimulus benefit
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then maybe this is what happens but if you counted the stimulus benefit and i don't know that there will be
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a stimulus but that's you know that would be the that would be the claim wouldn't it make uh
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the bottom 20 percent more likely to be in a good economy if you take somebody and you take the bottom 20
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percent of taxpayers and you say i'm going to take 560 dollars in taxes away from you or you know by taxing you
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um but we're going to raise the gdp to seven percent which would be enormous do you think the bottom 20
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percent would come ahead they might they might but that wouldn't be captured in any of the uh estimates how
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about uh uh let's see what else so what about the effect of um closing the border and deporting all
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the illegal workers would that make a difference to the average income of a low-income person yes
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yes you know supply and demand suggests that the income you know just the wages of the average low
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income person would go up because they would no longer be competing with you know 10 or 20 million
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illegal people who want those same jobs so is that calculated by the cbo or bloomberg no of course not
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no these it is completely unknowable how this would shake out if trump is right and there's this great
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stimulus and at the same time he's sending back people who compete for those jobs and as we've seen
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the average wage for blue-collar people went up since trump spent in office if he if he can find a way to
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decrease inflation again the money would be worth more so none of this is is something you can calculate
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i would say that like climate models um when you're looking at these budget estimates it's really just
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political so if you want trump to fail you calculate it one way if you want him to succeed you calculate it
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the other way but you might know by now that elon musk is not really happy with this uh this bill
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um one of the things he doesn't like or maybe the main thing it is uh musically asked on x what's the
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point of a debt ceiling if we keep raising it to which i say uh right did you ever wonder that
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so the congress imposes on itself a debt ceiling meaning that they agree that they will never
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raise the debt beyond this this level and then what do they do every single year they change the debt
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level they change the ceiling so that they can add more to the debt so musk is correctly asking the
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question why do you even have a debt ceiling if you can change it at will and you do and you do it every
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musk also says there's a quote a massive strategic error is being made
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uh uh in the uh bill because i guess it removes it removes uh some government support for solar and
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battery technology uh that will leave america extremely vulnerable in the future
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so we of course need every bit of electricity we can get because ai will be you know increasing the need
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for electricity by i don't know a thousand or something something ridiculous so for us to compete with china
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and other countries we're going to need a lot of electricity um musk says that if we if we're not
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going full out in the uh solar and solar batteries for the uh for the network we'd be losing out on you
00:20:03.460
know obviously a big source um we'll get to let me get to that in a minute i've got more to say about that
00:20:13.060
so so i looked at uh grok i had to use grok for all of my prep this morning because every time i saw a
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new story i would say to myself uh i think i need some context on this and crock is amazing at that
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just amazing at context so almost everything i'm going to talk about i grok there first
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to find out if i know what's really going on um so musk is called the uh this bill the big beautiful bill
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that's 940 pages uh he called it utterly insane and destructive he said it would destroy millions
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jobs and harm future industries while favoring favoring industries of the past um and he said
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it would be political suicide for republicans now a lot of that i think is because it cuts green green
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energy projects which i assume i assume most things uh would be essential because we're not gonna do
00:21:20.660
everything we need to do with gas and oil and even nuclear you know we're gonna have we're gonna have
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to do something a lot more than we're currently planning to do so he's right about that i think i'm chris
00:21:34.740
hadfield i'm an astronaut an author a citizen of planet earth join me for a six-part journey into the
00:21:42.180
systems that power the world real conversations with real people who are shaping the future of energy
00:21:49.620
no politics no empty talk just solutions focused conversations on the challenges we must overcome
00:21:57.300
and the possibilities that lie ahead this is on energy listen wherever you get your podcasts
00:22:05.700
so musk is urging people on x to oppose the bill and especially the four trillion dollar deficit increase
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that he says is pork filled and uh trump is responding by calling him a wonderful guy in a fox news interview
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recently um but mother but uh but trump is suggesting that the reason musk is opposed is because it uh removes the ev
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mandate which would have an impact on all the electric car companies including tesla and he said that uh you know musk
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campaigned with him and should support the bill and uh but trump didn't want to get into you know direct
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confrontation but later he did when somebody asked asked trump about um denaturalizing
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people who are citizens if they've acted poorly because the uh i guess ice well well the government
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uh has a new priority that they're going to deport you even if you are a citizen if you've also done
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something that's super destructive you know like committed a crime you know that's really bad or something
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so somebody asked uh trump about is it possible they could deport
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elon musk back to south africa and instead of slapping that down as ridiculous trump said he might look into it
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i don't know that i'm a hundred percent right but it seems to me that that is completely a bluff
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um because if trump actually literally tried to deport elon musk the country would be ripped apart
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there's no way he's going to try that but i've been wrong before recently
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is it possible that trump actually would try to deport him uh because musk has promised that whoever votes
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for this bill which would be republicans that he's going to try to primary and of their office
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and he's going to try as hard as he can to get every one of them out of office
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and he probably does have you know the money and the power that he could certainly put a big dent
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in the republican majority and musk also says that the day it passes he's going to start a third party
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uh the america party or something so he would create an alternative to the republicans
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and i gotta say if it were my job to cut the budget and i did all that work and took all that
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personal pain and all that personal and business risk and i risked everything including my life
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and my career and my reputation to lower the debt and then the republicans just added to the debt
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like in that like it never happened i might want to take them down too
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so boy do i understand where musk is coming from boy do i understand now the only thing that
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gives uh let's say the possibility that they're sort of both right you know musk and trump if it's true
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that trump can boost the the economy not just with um the big beautiful bill which would do which would
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be a little bit stimulative but suppose uh he also gets interest rates down by percent or two
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which is possible i mean it might take till may but it's possible um suppose the tariffs continue to
00:26:15.780
bring in tens of billions of dollars which they are now that's possible so there is there is a version of
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this where the bill does add to the debt at the surface level but that trump would do so many other things
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for the economy that the economy would start zooming and that zooming economy would make up for any
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shortfall um and be uh be able to pay down some of the debt
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that now is that possible that does it sound even a little bit credible that trump would be pushing
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a whole bunch of different buttons from tariffs to border control to you know stimulus to lowering
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lowering taxes on some things if you put all of that together plus the lower interest rates if you put it
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all together is it possible that trump can stimulate our economy so much that it starts paying down the debt
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it's a stretch but has trump done anything that was surprisingly effective that even the smart people
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thought wouldn't work well yeah not only has he done it he seems to do it somewhat regularly you know
00:27:44.820
the uh the tariffs are working better than the experts said the israel loran ceasefire
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and the bombing of the you know nuclear facilities definitely went better than all the smart people
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said it would so far so the uh the option of betting against trump it doesn't look as good as it used to
00:28:10.260
look right there was a time when you could just say ah that crazy clown you know he's got crazy ideas and
00:28:18.020
you could bet against it but it's getting really hard to bet against trump because he just keeps making
00:28:25.700
things work that you wouldn't think would work so who's right well if i were musk i would definitely be
00:28:35.700
uh up in arms because they put me through this the ringer and they didn't cut the uh budget and more of a
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more of an obvious start on day one cut it as opposed to hoping that other things will make the
00:28:53.780
the deficit go down so they both have a pretty good argument here i don't know which one's right actually
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i it's hard to bet against either one of them um and then uh apparently uh tesla and spacex have large
00:29:15.460
government subsidies and trump has implied that maybe they should look at those subsidies and cut them
00:29:22.740
so again it's probably hyperbole and it's probably just a threat um but i did see that uh in the amuse account
00:29:32.740
on x it's a good account to follow amuse that tesla is not the only car company in the us getting
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subsidies from the feds um so tesla is getting i'll just round off 12 billion in subsidies but gm uh got
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about 50 billion ford is also 15 billion chrysler 12 billion and that congress created these subsidies
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because they thought it would be good for the country so tesla would just be one of the car companies
00:30:10.260
that's accepting the subsidy because the government you know wanted our our car business to do well
00:30:16.820
apparently and spacex um got a combined 23 billion in federal contracts and support but did you know that
00:30:28.740
boeing and lockheed uh also received a whole bunch of billions in support while spacex launched 90 of
00:30:39.060
the payloads to space uh with the jv team sending only three percent into orbit so musk has actually said
00:30:49.060
go ahead and cut all of the subsidies as long as you do it for everybody just cut all the subsidies
00:30:56.340
now is he bluffing maybe yes and maybe no because he probably could still be in the strongest financial
00:31:06.900
situation relative to the other car companies if they all lost their subsidies so he'd probably still
00:31:13.780
be competitive we don't know if gm would would spacex survive probably he probably has enough business
00:31:22.660
from you know private satellite people who want to put satellites up and stuff that spacex would survive
00:31:30.260
as well so they're both maybe bluffing you know maybe trump is only bluffing that he would take the subsidies away from tesla and spacex
00:31:41.460
but musk might be also bluffing that uh that he wants those taken away because he'll he'll find a way to make it work
00:31:51.300
and then nobody's got subsidies so that got interesting anyway um so musk as i said did a little poll on x
00:32:04.340
to ask if people thought there was time to create a new political party in america 80 of the people
00:32:11.140
answered said yes um and trump is over untruth saying don't be a panicking the jokey name for republicans
00:32:22.980
who panic a panic and a new party based on weak and stupid people so that's what he's calling the new
00:32:29.860
party the panicans trump says be strong courageous and patient and greatness will be the result
00:32:39.060
so trump very consistently and very expertly and very effectively is making the case that we need to go
00:32:50.180
through the problem not around it um so i'm talking about the debt going around it would be oh we are
00:32:59.540
spending too much we better cut our spending so that would be sort of the defensive you know weak way to
00:33:07.620
approach it no uh don't want to spend too much whereas he's doing the what he would call the strong
00:33:15.060
courageous and patient method of greatness which is you just blast through the middle of it and don't
00:33:23.220
run up the budget or don't run up the deficit but rather you have such good growth and such a strong
00:33:30.260
economy that the deficit looks small in comparison could he do it well no one else could
00:33:41.380
if it were any other president i would bet against it and say you can't go through it
00:33:47.780
you're gonna have to retreat you're gonna have to back up and cut your expenses
00:33:52.660
but he says just go right through it is he right i don't know and that's i hate to say this kind of fun
00:34:03.460
that i don't know uh because usually this stuff is a little more obvious
00:34:09.060
but i really don't know could he do it nobody else could but could trump
00:34:15.540
man it's like a coin flip he might be able to do that and it would be glorious it would be one of
00:34:24.580
the most amazing things america has ever experienced if he can do it maybe but if he's uh doesn't get
00:34:34.260
his bill passed and elon musk primaries everybody uh if it does get passed you can imagine that things
00:34:42.020
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talking about solar power and he was making the case that solar is unreliable um because it doesn't work
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at night now i complained about that online and said if you're still saying the solar doesn't work
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because the sun goes down you don't sound like the smart person in the room anymore there was a time
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when that was the smart thing to say you'd say well how can you make electricity when the sun is down
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but in today's world the the model is that you collect the sun put it in batteries and then when
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the sun goes down you release the batteries so i was calling doug burgum um dumb for acting like there's
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no such thing as batteries and and acting as if we don't already have these these very exact things
00:36:50.340
solar solar solar powered batteries that are in networks china has them other countries have them
00:36:58.740
we have them however i was corrected by uh people who know more than i do about this who said that you
00:37:08.340
would never get the batteries to last all nights so the batteries might be good for peak periods where
00:37:16.100
you're just filling in where you don't have enough other energy so you might get two to four hours
00:37:21.860
but if you really wanted it to last overnight you need about 16 hours of battery power and we're nowhere
00:37:29.380
near that so the best technology if you stretched it you might get to six hours but then you would still
00:37:39.060
need you know three entire networks of batteries to get there and it would be uh not not price competitive
00:37:48.180
so what does elon musk say since he's in that business and he's smarter than all of us about you know the
00:37:55.220
direction of these technologies well he would say and others would say grok says this too that uh
00:38:03.300
uh we're probably you know eight to ten years away from having batteries that can last all night
00:38:11.860
and be economic so was the big beautiful bill talking about using our current technology or was if we're
00:38:22.020
boosting uh boosting companies that are trying to invent our way into the time when the batteries will last
00:38:29.860
all night and it would be our best source of electricity well maybe we don't need to know the answer to that
00:38:38.340
because doug burgum is still wrong even though i'm wrong about the economics uh he's still wrong
00:38:46.580
if he thinks that solar doesn't have a place in the network because its place is to handle the peak
00:38:54.340
that that's what it's for so if it can do that then you don't need those other sources of power because
00:39:03.620
your solar would handle the peak so um i would say that uh doug burgum is off point what he should have
00:39:14.500
said is that it would take 10 years or so before this would be economical so maybe we should wait or maybe
00:39:22.580
private industry should fund it or maybe we don't need to give subsidies to people like tesla because
00:39:28.900
they have enough money to do it on their own maybe that one has sounded smart to me but if he just says
00:39:35.540
the sun doesn't shine at night he just sounds like a dumb guy who's sort of not up to date i'm sure he is
00:39:42.660
up to date by the way wait what is i'm seeing another comment uh
00:39:53.940
breaking what did bus say bannon is going back to prison this time for a long time
00:40:00.340
bannon wants to nationalize spacex uh and i guess must said bannon is going back to prison
00:40:08.100
this time for a long time i don't know if he knows something we don't know
00:40:12.900
but uh things are heating up it's getting spicy out there people getting spicy
00:40:21.220
anyway so um i asked grok again uh where we are in terms of batteries and uh apparently musk
00:40:32.340
predicted that we would have terawatts from that source solar uh annually by 2030 so that's only
00:40:41.620
five years away so shouldn't we be you know subsidizing and working like crazy
00:40:48.740
um at the moment so that five years from now there will be enough battery power and the network
00:40:54.660
to make solar work well we'll see all right um stephen miller who was uh trying to defend the big
00:41:04.820
beautiful bill but he wisely stayed away from the economics so rather than defending you know what it
00:41:13.300
would do to the deficit which is a tougher sell he quite wisely because he's good at this um said that
00:41:22.020
each part of the bill would be a huge accomplishment for a president they talked about things like
00:41:27.060
building the missile shield and border security and things we like you know we like to be safer so
00:41:34.980
that's a pretty good argument but it doesn't get to where trump is at or massey's at or uh even where
00:41:44.340
i'm at the people who think that the deficit is the big problem
00:41:50.740
and according to bill o'reilly the fate of the big beautiful bill is uh it's all on the line for
00:41:58.820
president trump's legacy do you think that's true that if this doesn't pass that trump's legacy will be
00:42:07.940
damaged well i would argue he's already done so many good things that his legacy is going to
00:42:14.260
be amazing um and it doesn't seem like the bill would be completely destroyed you know maybe has
00:42:23.540
to be pared down to just the things we really really really care about and agree on so maybe
00:42:29.700
something smaller will end up out of this maybe but uh as you might imagine tesla shares have dropped
00:42:39.620
because the trump musk feud do you know how do you know how angry elon musk must be uh and maybe angry
00:42:49.780
is the wrong word you know maybe just determined uh that he would once again put put his entire assets
00:42:59.460
in play at risk over this over this issue he knows he's putting everything at risk and as a a tesla stockholder
00:43:10.420
which i am i'm a little bit uncomfortable with him putting you know my my finances at risk as well
00:43:19.860
but i do appreciate that he's willing to go all in and i do appreciate that he's not lying he he's treating
00:43:32.500
the deficit like an existential threat and he is all in and if it's not an existential threat
00:43:41.460
well then don't be all in and if you say that it is which it is you kind of have to be all in so
00:43:51.620
i do like his consistency you know if he had if musk had been so much about cutting the deficit
00:44:00.820
and then suddenly when the big beautiful bill comes up if he had been all right well these are all really
00:44:06.980
good ideas because you know every one of these would be something their president would be happy to get
00:44:13.220
and there's 25 of them in the bill i would not be happy with that that would that would look like he
00:44:19.620
flipped on his most important existential threat which is the debt but he didn't flip he's staying completely consistent
00:44:29.380
meanwhile the according to reuters the u.s dollar's doing uh poorly had its worst first half since the 70s
00:44:42.660
yikes and the reason for that is just all the roiling of things are going on so uncertainty etc
00:44:51.540
um but the dollar has taken a taking a dump compared to some compared to the currencies of other countries
00:45:04.420
apparently jd vance is in the capital in case he has to break a tie on the vote
00:45:12.660
and they're trying to flip lisa murkowski i guess to get her to vote for it we'll see where that goes
00:45:18.740
um the u.s has also according to al jazeera approved uh another half a billion dollars for arms sales to israel
00:45:29.140
so we would be up to uh in in 2023 that might be the last number we have uh mila u.s military aid to israel
00:45:41.380
uh hit uh 18 billion dollars 18 billion dollars just in 2023 now obviously because there was some
00:45:52.820
military action that sort of makes sense that the number would be bumped up a little bit at the moment
00:46:00.020
because some of that is you know to the benefit of the united states too
00:46:04.340
um um but uh do you know what the uh the annual aid cap is for israel so the aid cap that was passed
00:46:17.220
in 2016 by the congress um capped the amount we would give to israel at 3.8 billion and 2023 it was 18
00:46:27.780
billions so let me tell you what congress is really bad at putting caps on spending apparently they just
00:46:38.180
ignore all their caps on spending so when it comes to the budget or it comes to israel
00:46:44.420
um but a lot of that military spending goes back to the u.s i don't know what percentage but it goes back
00:46:50.740
to u.s companies to sell the weapons that israel needs not all of it but some of it
00:47:01.300
in other news uh russia has put up some kind of a suspicious satellite asset that appears to be
00:47:10.100
stalking a u.s satellite so it's an unknown object that i think came out of a satellite one of their
00:47:17.540
satellites and some say it's a some kind of a weapon to destroy a satellite and some think it's something
00:47:27.300
else like research or you know maybe trying to gather deep information from our satellites i don't know
00:47:34.500
but it's uh sketchy so russia has a satellite threatening asset next to our our satellites
00:47:43.460
here's a story that if there hadn't been so much other things going on would be the biggest story
00:47:51.140
of the day so rfk jr was on tucker's podcast and here's what rfk jr says now imagine this being like
00:48:01.060
the seventh biggest story of the day just just listen to this and it would only be the seventh biggest
00:48:09.940
story i'm just making up the seventh part but rfk jr says that the cdc covered up so remember the
00:48:20.980
cover-up is sometimes worse than the offense they covered up an internal study so it was the cdc's own
00:48:28.340
internal study which found a uh 1135 increase in autism risk from people who took the hepatitis b vaccine
00:48:42.820
now that would be young people of course um now you might say how did they cover that up
00:48:50.740
well the way they covered it up was once they got this result that they didn't like
00:48:55.860
they removed from their data set the older children do you know why they did that
00:49:02.740
because younger children don't yet shows symptoms of autism so they eliminated from their data set
00:49:11.620
the ones that you would expect to show symptoms and they limited it to people that you wouldn't notice if
00:49:18.980
they had it now wouldn't that be the biggest story in the country if everything else was even a little
00:49:30.100
bit normal you like fewer wars and musk and trump stuff how is that not the biggest story and then rfk
00:49:40.180
jr who at one point reportedly was considering banning pharmaceutical ads on television has now reversed that
00:49:50.500
and says he's only only wants them to be more honest how in the world are you going to accomplish
00:49:57.940
that how are you going to make them more honest that's not really a standard that you know is a it's not
00:50:07.140
really a um a variable that you can manage to because one person's opinion of what is honest enough
00:50:15.220
is not really going to be what other people's opinion is so i think one of the examples was
00:50:21.540
you know showing people living all happily you know just in case they don't all live happily
00:50:27.620
is that is that is that a case being dishonest or is it just what commercials do so i would worry that big pharma
00:50:39.140
has a flipped rfk jr or maybe the big network tv people said uh we can't do the news
00:50:48.340
if we don't have big pharma ads because they pay our bills something happened
00:50:52.980
somebody got to him and changed him from uh we're going to get rid of these ads all the way to
00:51:02.660
well we'll just make sure that they're honest as if that's going to make any difference so that's
00:51:09.460
disappointing in weird news um trump has trump has introduced a fragrance which he's selling
00:51:23.140
called trump 45 to 47 and the funniest part is it is for men or women who want to uh smell like success
00:51:37.700
trump says in the advertisement get yourself a bottle and don't forget to get one for your loved
00:51:44.980
ones too so if you're trump supporters you can spray each other with this fragrance
00:51:52.740
and then sit around on the couch and smell like winners
00:52:05.380
agreement with the with the democrats who are saying the trump family is using the office to uh
00:52:12.580
increase their wealth now i don't know how much wealth they're going to increase with their fragrance
00:52:18.500
but but but it does seem like he's using the office to increase his wealth
00:52:26.340
i tend not to uh it doesn't bother me as long as it's transparent
00:52:32.340
so you know truth social totally transparent you can see what he's doing um whatever he's doing with
00:52:39.220
crypto again kind of sketchy enterprise but it's all transparent right so i don't i don't have the same
00:52:49.700
opinion about people who are not hiding anything uh so if trump can uh can monetize the presidency
00:52:58.740
by selling the fragrance as long as everybody knows exactly what he's doing i don't have a problem with
00:53:05.620
it but the i think the democrats do have a little bit of a point a little bit of a point that there
00:53:12.820
does seem to be a little monetizing going on here
00:53:17.860
then another story that is so massive that again it would be the only story if we didn't
00:53:24.580
have so much going on um i guess our our law enforcement people found that there was a massive medicaid fraud
00:53:34.020
that had already stolen 15 billion dollars from the medicaid program 15 billion dollars
00:53:43.220
i'm not misspeaking it wasn't million and it wasn't 15 dollars it was 15 billion dollars
00:53:54.820
and apparently the way the scam worked is some over overseas entities i don't know which ones
00:54:03.140
bought a bunch of medical device outlets so that they owned real companies that until the fraud started
00:54:12.420
were doing real things they were selling you know medical devices and then they got 94 doctors and a few
00:54:20.260
hundred nurses to be in on the scheme presumably they were benefiting financially so the doctors would
00:54:29.780
prescribe things like catheters and then the bad guys would just use their fake stores to say that
00:54:39.940
they'd sold catheters to a list of people that they knew were on medicaid but they were not actually
00:54:47.220
doing any business with them so people would notice they look at their medicaid uh records i guess and
00:54:56.260
they'd say hey i didn't i didn't buy any catheters or anything or whatever other medical devices but if
00:55:04.260
they tried to complain the bureaucracy would just stymie them so if you were just one person who believed
00:55:12.100
there was one thing on your bill they shouldn't have been there first of all it wasn't you paying for
00:55:19.540
it it was medicaid so how much did you care second of all if you tried to do anything about it there
00:55:25.940
wasn't really a process for that so you would just be stymied by the bureaucracy so they have this perfect
00:55:32.900
little medicaid fraud going where the only people who would notice it didn't really have an incentive or
00:55:40.020
even a channel to complain too much but it got to 15 billion dollars and it looks like uh looks like
00:55:48.180
the fbi has taken them down and department of justice
00:55:55.060
let's see trump's getting in more more trouble because he wants to go after the
00:56:04.500
the naturalized citizens and deport them but only if they've done terrible things you know broken laws
00:56:10.900
and stuff so that's out there um there's some big hacker network that apparently is uh blackmailing
00:56:20.180
doing ransomware blackmailing some airlines at the moment and uh they think it's something called
00:56:27.700
scattered spider it's a ransomware crew uh and they're they're doing ransomware on big companies by
00:56:36.580
essentially locking up their networks and telling them they won't unlock them unless they give them you
00:56:42.580
know tens of millions of dollars and apparently they're doing real well they're linked to russian-aligned
00:56:50.420
actors and they're recruiting fluent uh engineers with zero accent so forbes is forbes is reporting on that
00:57:02.580
um candace owens who continues to be fascinating um is claiming that somebody at the
00:57:12.500
white house called her to ask her to stop talking about um bridget macron that would be the french
00:57:21.300
first lady allegedly um because candace had done a series in which she uh followed her hypothesis that
00:57:32.340
bridget macron was born a man and uh has always been a man just dressed as a woman i guess
00:57:40.100
now i do not personally uh feel that i'm convinced that's true
00:57:49.220
it's really interesting and if you if you listen to the evidence that she has for it it is compelling
00:57:58.100
but as i've warned you many times of the documentary effect you know what i'm talking about right
00:58:05.380
if you watch a documentary that has one point of view by the time you're done with that documentary
00:58:11.860
you will believe that it's all true because there's no counterpoint a documentary just shows one point of
00:58:17.860
view and if you watch something for an extended time it's just one one fact after another that's all on the
00:58:25.380
one side of an issue you will be convinced but that doesn't make it true it's it's an effect that i call
00:58:34.260
the documentary effect if you watch a long form of any one point of view you'll probably be convinced
00:58:43.700
so you really have to see the other point of view to you know really know what's going on so the first
00:58:48.580
thing you need to know is that although candace owens evidence for her hypothesis that bridget macron is
00:58:56.580
really a man is really convincing i've watched i've watched quite a bit of it and i have to say when
00:59:03.940
i'm watching it i think to myself wow that's pretty convincing that's a pretty good argument you got there
00:59:10.260
however i'm also aware that i'm being affected by the documentary effect so if you told me scott you
00:59:20.340
have to bet your entire net worth on whether whether it's true i wouldn't i wouldn't i'd probably bet
00:59:28.980
against it even though it's possible i mean anything's possible and let me let me also go further and say
00:59:38.100
i really don't care does it matter does it matter does it matter to the united states
00:59:45.780
whichever way it is if she's a man or or a woman does that matter to me it only matters to macron and
00:59:53.860
obviously he's happy with whatever his situation is so why would i even care so first of all i don't
01:00:01.540
care and i don't judge him no matter what it is you know it's just it's just not my business um however
01:00:11.300
candace has now said that the top white house uh person called her and told her to cool it on that
01:00:19.220
story because uh we need france to help uh negotiate something with russia and ukraine
01:00:26.020
and france might be stalling a little bit to try to see if they could put some pressure on candace
01:00:34.260
now some people said candace made up the whole thing not just the bridget macron thing but some
01:00:41.460
are saying that she made up the fact that somebody at the white house called her and told her to cool
01:00:47.460
it on the story what do you think well i'll give you my opinion of candace which is as far as i know
01:00:58.260
i don't know that she's ever been accused of telling them like a bald-faced lie has she
01:01:06.020
i've never seen that so she always strikes me as somebody who might be right
01:01:11.460
sometimes might be wrong like every other person who talks in public like me might be right might be
01:01:19.140
wrong but lying now how many of you believe that she would just make up like a like a lie that's that
01:01:30.420
specific that doesn't sound real does it i don't know i'd have to see if some of you have some other
01:01:39.300
example where you know that she you know you know that she knew she was lying and did it anyway
01:01:46.660
then maybe i'd change my mind but i'm not aware of anything like that my my sense of her is very
01:01:52.900
similar to my sense of all the independent journalist types you know if i see glenn greenwald say something
01:02:00.820
it might be right it might be wrong but is he lying no no uh how about michael schellenberger
01:02:09.860
he might say something that maybe you know because like i say not everybody's going to be right
01:02:15.860
every single time might say something that doesn't check out but would he be lying about it how about
01:02:22.660
matt taibbi if he got something wrong would you guess that he was lying about it no because there's no
01:02:30.900
evidence that that any of them are about lying it just just doesn't seem like a thing
01:02:40.180
so i'm going to say that i don't know anything about bridget macron's um
01:02:47.460
biological reality it doesn't matter to me one way or the other but no i don't think that she would make
01:02:54.660
that story up is to me it sounds perfectly natural that the white house would say you know
01:03:02.500
you're making a little bit tough on us could you you know pull back a little bit on that
01:03:07.380
that makes sense to me so i'm going to say that that's real
01:03:13.460
well so uh let's talk about the communist mamdani again running for mayor of new york city
01:03:28.580
imagine being the the most prominent democrat at the moment and uh david uh donnie deutch was on msnbc
01:03:40.820
saying basically this guy's too close to anti-semitism um and it's a problem now that's msnbc is one of the
01:03:52.260
main voices that you hear on msnbc and uh how could you possibly win an office if you can't win msnbc
01:04:03.380
if you're a democrat republican obviously never wins msnbc but is that even possible now here's why
01:04:13.140
here's what got him in trouble so apparently there are people who say globalize in uh into intifada
01:04:23.140
so if you say globalize into fada am i saying that right into fada yeah um
01:04:31.540
as donnie george points out if you're jewish and even if you're not you interpret that as a cult of
01:04:38.020
violence against uh jewish people everywhere now you don't have to agree with that interpretation
01:04:46.100
you just have to know that that would be a common interpretation that other people do believe in
01:04:52.820
that interpretation so if you're just looking at his odds of winning the election
01:04:57.380
he was asked on meet the press if he would uh disavow the people who say globalize intifada now
01:05:08.900
apparently he has not said that so he's not being accused of being one of the people who said it
01:05:15.220
he's being accused of being unwilling to disavow it and say that he's he doesn't agree with it so when
01:05:24.900
pressed on the topic instead of doing the easy thing which is oh i don't say that and the reason
01:05:31.860
i don't say it is that i you know don't believe it and i disavow it that would have been sort of the
01:05:40.180
non-anti-semitic version of how to deny it but instead he went all weasel and said oh i don't say
01:05:49.380
that but i don't like to disavow things because if i start disavowing the language used by other people
01:05:56.100
uh i would become like trump really really that was that was his concern that he wouldn't disavow
01:06:09.380
what looks like to many people a cult of violence against jewish people around the world
01:06:15.220
he wouldn't disavow that because doing so would make him sound like trump
01:06:21.380
now that doesn't even sound a little bit like that's a real reason does it and first of all
01:06:29.540
trump did disavow the neo-nazis and uh in charlottesville so it's not like trump has never
01:06:36.660
disavowed anything he's disavowed quite a few things i don't think it hurt him
01:06:42.260
so we got that and then uh um i think deutsch was talking about how uh he talked about uh taxing white
01:06:53.060
people and he's not running away from that he's just saying oh that was just sort of a way to refer
01:06:59.620
to rich areas i'm not buying that sorry i think it was exactly what he meant to say
01:07:12.260
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slash banking packages conditions apply scotia bank you're richer than you think
01:07:25.140
but msnbc also had a guest uh pablo torre who said that uh mom donny's refusal to condemn the phrase
01:07:35.140
globalize the interfada uh is actually smart and it might be a chess play um because he doesn't want
01:07:44.580
to get caught i don't know condemning or apologizing things like like trump would but uh i would argue
01:07:52.980
that he's using a trump strategy right now which is trump does not spend time uh explaining or apologizing
01:08:02.420
or walking back statements um he doesn't do that and that does make him look stronger
01:08:12.020
but how in the world can you lose oh and then and then uh uh uh what was his name uh hakim jeffries
01:08:23.860
was asked about the fact that mamdani is not disavowing the phrase uh globalize the intifada
01:08:31.300
so what does hakim jeffries say he says uh that they'll need to work with him on that to like
01:08:39.220
improve that messaging but basically even hakim jeffries was saying that if you don't fix that
01:08:47.540
you're going to have trouble getting elected so mamdani seems to have lost msnbc
01:08:55.540
and lost democrat leadership because he's unwilling to condemn what many would see as a call to violence
01:09:05.300
against jewish people around the world and he still is unwilling to do it
01:09:10.900
wow so not only is he a communist but he's uh i would say the the uh accusation that he's an anti-semite
01:09:24.260
i would say that that's demonstrated wouldn't you would you at this point say that that's in question
01:09:30.980
i don't think it's really a good question is it i i think he's a fairly pure anti-semite and uh
01:09:45.460
so can he really get elected i don't know you know it would be the most amazing thing if he did
01:09:55.300
but but it would prove to you that all it took for a democrat to get elected
01:10:01.540
was to have a policy that people liked and his policy that says i'll make new york city more
01:10:09.140
affordable well your your low knowledge voter is going to say well i like that i like i like a city
01:10:17.220
that's more affordable but i think new york city has the doesn't have the highest uh number is a number
01:10:24.980
of percentage of jewish residents how in the world does that city elect an anti-semite
01:10:33.700
mayor is that even possible the the fact that this looks not just possible but probable is absolutely
01:10:43.700
mind-blowing but that's the power of having an actual policy so you know if the other democrats catch
01:10:52.500
on chris murphy was correct if the other democrats catch on and they start saying we can make things more
01:10:59.620
affordable they don't even have to be telling the truth because people are just going to say yeah
01:11:05.940
more affordable sign me up so there's that uh according to reuters taiwan is going to be doing some war
01:11:18.340
games in which they'll simulate a chinese invasion so how would you like to be taiwan at the moment
01:11:26.340
when you're wondering if you know you're next in our game of thrones um i don't know how much of a fight
01:11:37.620
they could put up but my suspicion is that china will not directly attack um maybe in our lifetime
01:11:48.180
well your lifetime mine might be shorter than yours um i don't think they will because china is not really
01:11:55.940
an aggressive um offensive military they've they've done very well by not starting fights and if they
01:12:06.340
started to fight with taiwan they don't know how that would go you know there's no way that for them to
01:12:11.860
know for sure that that's you know going to be a one-week operation that could be that could be devastating
01:12:20.100
for china so i'm gonna i'm gonna predict that you will not see china attack taiwan i'll say during
01:12:29.860
the trump administration that's as far as i'll look out but during the trump administration i say
01:12:36.580
no chinese attack on taiwan because they would they wouldn't want to do it under his regime for sure
01:12:42.980
well uh trump sent a note a personal note to fed chairman jerome powell showing a list of other
01:12:54.500
countries they have much lower interest rates and arguing that uh that means we should lower our
01:13:01.620
interest rates now as you know they've been trump's been on him forever and wants him to retire and
01:13:09.140
drop out and wants to fire him if he could but that would be hard um but does it make sense
01:13:17.460
for trump to compare us to other countries no it doesn't it's a persuasive argument because people
01:13:27.780
who see the argument would say hey you know why does switzerland have a one percent interest rate we've got
01:13:35.540
you know five whatever so if you're trying to be persuasive it's a really good argument
01:13:44.340
but what do i tell you about analogies so he's he's analogizing the united states
01:13:52.020
to this list of other countries do you think maybe there's a reason that they have lower interest rates
01:13:58.980
than we do yes there's a reason because we're different the the countries that already have low to
01:14:07.780
no inflation can lower their interest rates because higher interest rates are what you do if you're
01:14:14.500
trying to tamp down on inflation so in the united states uh even though our inflation is at a reasonable
01:14:23.060
number at the moment which would be you know trump's argument hey inflation's under control at the
01:14:28.180
moment it's not as low as it is in switzerland or those other places that have low interest rates
01:14:36.020
it's not as low as them um but we also have the extra risk hanging over us of you know what will
01:14:43.620
happen with the trade deals and you know maybe some other stuff what will happen with the big beautiful
01:14:48.820
bill so we have some uncertainty in the united states which powell would argue is good enough
01:14:56.340
reason to wait a little bit see how things shake out before you lower interest rates um but do not be
01:15:03.540
fooled by looking at a list of other countries there's a reason that these other countries act differently
01:15:10.660
and the difference is they have different economies they have they have different uh different export and
01:15:16.820
import ratios which apparently makes a big difference to you know this conversation so no they're just
01:15:24.580
different but is it persuasive yes it's absolutely persuasive because i'm probably the only person today
01:15:35.380
who will tell you it doesn't make sense to compare countries uh watch the news today see see how many of the
01:15:43.060
talking heads bother to research it and find out that it doesn't make sense to compare to other countries we'll see
01:15:53.860
um senator tommy tuberville says that uh powell could drop interest rates just one point and we'd save taxpayers 400
01:16:04.020
billion dollars uh because he says inflation is as low as it's ever been so it's just about politics
01:16:13.380
it feels like it you know i have to say that the current interest rates it feels like politics more than
01:16:21.140
it feels like good economic decisions but uh 400 billion dollars that would take a nice bite out of our deficit
01:16:30.660
wouldn't it so now imagine you're trump and you've got uh elon musk you know chewing at your heels for
01:16:40.980
for bringing up the deficit imagine if you will that trump could get interest rates lowered by one percent
01:16:48.820
by just jawboning the fed forever i don't think it'll work but uh by may there'll be a new fed chairman so
01:16:56.820
so so by may it'll work when he's got his own guy in there or lady so what if trump gets us 400 billion
01:17:06.820
per year in interest rates and another 200 billion per year in extra tariffs that we weren't expecting
01:17:15.460
even though american companies pay for a lot of that were and then then let's say that the big beautiful bill
01:17:23.860
did work as a stimulus so let's let's say he gets another couple hundred billion dollars from the
01:17:31.140
stimulus and then let's say that the upcoming budget packages in which speaker johnson says those are the
01:17:40.660
ones that you would get the doge cuts in what if they got 100 billion so you could sort of crawl your
01:17:49.220
way up to a trillion dollars in um in work against the the deficit now i think we're spending like
01:17:59.700
two trillion a year more than we bring in so it's still only only half of the deficit but it probably
01:18:07.540
that it would calm things down so um so it seems to me that trump has a play
01:18:20.420
that only he can make work because you know he's the only one who would do tariffs he's the only one
01:18:25.300
who would you know browbeat the fed he's the only one who could get big beautiful bill passed if he does
01:18:32.820
get it passed so these are very much only trump things and they might be worth a trillion dollars a
01:18:40.340
year collectively so if he gets that done it's certainly going to look like he did something
01:18:46.500
positive for the uh for the overall debt but it would still only be halfway there so i don't know
01:18:54.900
i don't know if it'd be enough cnn is uh was doing some news reporting about a new app that the anti
01:19:04.580
immigration deportation people um have called ice block and i guess i'm doing the same thing cnn was
01:19:13.940
doing which is telling you about something that was bad for ice people so i won't give any more details
01:19:20.900
i'll just say that tom homan when asked about it says the doj needs to look into cnn because it would
01:19:29.220
be like they're assisting people trying to avoid law enforcement or assisting people to hurt law enforcement
01:19:37.300
because they would know where they're going to be so i won't say more about that but that's a dicey
01:19:43.300
situation um apparently pam bondy says that the government is the doj is going to be suing the
01:19:54.100
sanctuary cities so la new york illinois new jersey colorado minnesota so she's suing all of them for
01:20:03.300
their sanctuary city policies i don't know if that'll work but maybe
01:20:09.700
and let's see uh ran paul is continuing his uh his quest to put uh fauci in jail um and he says now
01:20:26.740
in a new new video he was on ran paul says uh that there are new documents that reveal anthony fauci did
01:20:34.260
know gain of function research could be the cause of the covet pandemic and that they're gonna force
01:20:42.260
him to testify under oath now as far as i know fauci is covered by pardon right so a preemptive
01:20:52.580
universal pardon so i don't know if you could ever put him in jail for that or anything else
01:20:57.300
but uh it would be nice to know um how many of you think fauci is is as dirty as ran paul claims
01:21:09.460
and that he knew he was funding it he knew there was a risk and then when it happened you know the
01:21:14.900
worst case scenario it got out that he uh covered it up and lied about it how many of you think that's
01:21:23.940
a description of reality well i don't know but i'm definitely interested in hearing what
01:21:31.220
ran paul and congress has to say about it because uh i don't feel like ran paul is somebody who would
01:21:39.780
just make shit up he must have a really strong case or he wouldn't be going this hard you know i
01:21:49.060
so ran paul is another one that i trust that even if i disagreed with him it wouldn't be because he
01:21:54.820
was lying you know so i don't think he's lying but we'll see if he's also correct
01:22:03.060
um apparently trump has signed some executive orders about syria to drop some of the sanctions
01:22:10.740
um without asking for anything in return so he's just going to drop the sanctions on syria now that's
01:22:16.740
um presumably because the new dictator in syria is uh been cooperative and may in fact be part of you
01:22:28.900
know an increased um an increased deal in the middle east for the uh abraham accords so it looks like trump
01:22:38.660
is uh probably smartly assuming that if we play nice with them they're going to play nice with us
01:22:46.900
so that would be a function of you know knowing if their leader is that kind of personality
01:22:52.580
so going first and just giving something to syria that doesn't seem very trump-like you know normally
01:23:01.860
he'd be asking something in return so probably there's something that the leader of syria has promised
01:23:09.060
you know privately if you do this um we'll be cooperative in the middle east
01:23:16.740
um i think one of the questions would be the golan heights so maybe maybe they want to make
01:23:24.500
sure that syria gives up the golan heights forever um to uh to israel we'll see um iran is asking the
01:23:37.860
un breitbart is reporting this francis martel that uh iran is asking the un to make the u.s pay reparations
01:23:50.500
i don't feel that that will be successful however is iran smart for trying yeah yeah from
01:24:02.340
a persuasion perspective obviously it won't work but if they can get some headlines saying hey you
01:24:10.740
should pay reparations it's making you think past the sale the sale is should we have bombed them
01:24:19.700
if you're talking about reparations they're making you think past the bombing
01:24:24.660
to how much should the u.s pay for its terrible terrible mistake of bombing them
01:24:31.140
so persuasion wise a plus chances of success zero
01:24:39.140
um i guess texas is now banning land purchases by china russia iran and north korea according to the
01:24:45.860
national pulse so greg abbott signed it into law if you're if you're uh if you're a citizen of any
01:24:54.980
one of those countries you will not be able to buy land i wonder if i wonder why the states have to do
01:25:02.180
that i feel like that's just embarrassing to the federal government because it feels like the federal
01:25:08.500
government should have done that not just a state so we'll see if that makes a difference
01:25:15.380
meanwhile in science um northeastern university is writing about this there's a there's a discovery
01:25:24.020
in quantum materials that could make electronics a thousand times faster so researchers at northeastern
01:25:31.700
university have figured out how to change the electronic state of matter on demand so it's a quantum
01:25:40.820
matter transition technique that apparently if you built it into the computers maybe a thousand times
01:25:49.380
faster that's pretty exciting all right ladies and gentlemen i ran a little bit long but that's
01:25:56.820
all i have for today i'm going to say a few words privately to my beloved subscribers on locals and the rest
01:26:04.580
of you thanks for joining i will see you again tomorrow same time same place and locals coming at you privately