Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2887 CWSA 07⧸04⧸25

00:00:00.000 it's about time come on in happy 4th of july it's good to see you again

00:00:09.120 pick up a chair in the front so i can look at your smiling face

00:00:15.040 well happy 4th of july happy birthday america

00:00:19.920 and while all the lazy people lazy podcasters are taking the day off not me no i'm here for you

00:00:42.800 good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of human civilization it's called

00:00:48.640 coffee with scott adams and you've never had a better time but if you'd like to take a chance

00:00:55.680 of improving how you feel even though it seems impossible well to do that all you need is a

00:01:03.600 cup or mug or a glass a tanker chelsea and a canteen jug or flask what else a vessel of any kind fill

00:01:11.600 it with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the

00:01:17.520 dopamine hit of the day the thing that makes everything better it's called the simultaneous

00:01:23.840 sip and it happens now go ah thank you paul

00:01:35.440 all right well let's uh check in with science and see if science is enlightening us at all

00:01:43.600 well here's a story from the new york post it says that just one hot dog a day may increase the risk

00:01:53.040 of colorectal cancer so one hot dog just one hot dog a day would increase the risk of colorectal

00:02:02.480 cancer well that raises a interesting question what would happen if you put the hot dog in your mouth

00:02:09.760 instead everybody anybody all right it's hard to do a cop on each it's hard to do a joke

00:02:21.600 live stream because there's no feedback so i don't know if it just wouldn't clunk

00:02:27.120 or if you're laughing yourself to death but that was a heck of a good joke

00:02:31.840 well according to joe nova whoever that is there's a unexpected change in the sea ice around antarctica

00:02:46.240 where there are 1.5 million square kilometers of sea ice that are missing missing meaning melted

00:02:55.120 now you're probably saying to yourself my god they've proven climate change is real

00:03:01.120 because of all that arctic antarctic sea ice that melted but it's the opposite because the

00:03:10.880 the climate models did not predict that there would be a sudden massive decrease in ice

00:03:17.520 and not long ago when antarctica was in the other direction when it should have been melting

00:03:24.640 there was a massive increase in ice that also the climate models did not anticipate they they think

00:03:33.760 it might be because the melting might be because of a change in salinity in the ocean you know more more

00:03:41.280 salt equals more melting but they don't know for sure but uh you know what i'm gonna say next right

00:03:51.280 do you know what i'm gonna say oh i'm gonna say it goes like this wait until you find out about the climate models

00:04:00.240 honestly honestly it's gonna be one of my best weeks ever someday and it's probably not far off

00:04:10.720 it might happen in the next year or two someday there's gonna be a whistleblower

00:04:17.120 who says i worked on climate models and i can tell you for sure they're complete 0.93

00:04:22.720 bullshit and we just do it for funding oh it's coming 0.99

00:04:28.080 it's coming it's coming well another sign of the golden age 1.00

00:04:36.640 idaho national laboratories is putting together a nuclear micro reactor test bed so this is a u.s

00:04:45.600 government project so the reason you need a micro reactor test bed is that if you want to build and

00:04:54.480 design a innovative small nuclear power plant there might be a number of resources you need to test it

00:05:04.640 and perfect it so now the u.s has a place that you can take your small nuclear reactor design and test it out

00:05:18.160 now how much do we need that a lot a lot we really really need that and we haven't so another sign of the

00:05:29.600 golden age we're gonna maybe catch up with other countries like china and the nuclear department if we

00:05:38.320 keep doing things right

00:05:42.640 well uh elon musk says that grok the ai has improved significantly um as of today so it was released

00:05:52.320 today a new new version and i did a little test i think i told you um before the upgrade um just two

00:06:02.480 days ago maybe i i asked grok to tell me what i had contributed to society not counting dilbert

00:06:13.440 and it hallucinated like crazy so i'm reading the list of all the things that says i contributed to

00:06:21.280 the world and i know half of it was made up stuff i'd never seen participated in you know had no connection

00:06:30.320 to and i thought to myself huh another perfect application of gel man amnesia now you all know

00:06:39.360 what that is because you're regulars but in case there's somebody new here that's an observation by a

00:06:45.360 famous physicist whose last name was gel man who noticed that when he read a story about physics in the

00:06:53.440 news it was always wrong but that's because he was an expert on that field but the moment he turned

00:07:01.040 the page you would see an article on some other industry or field and he would assume that that was

00:07:07.360 accurate and then eventually he figured out wait a minute what are the odds that every time i know

00:07:15.120 something about the story it's inaccurate but when i don't know anything about the story i assume it's

00:07:20.880 accurate is it possible that they're only inaccurate on stories that i know something about and that's

00:07:28.480 what he correctly generalized that to the idea that the news is probably inaccurate all the time

00:07:37.760 well sure enough when i asked grok before the upgrade so this is just yesterday the day before

00:07:45.040 um it was hallucinating really badly so if you were doing a school report and you were you know going

00:07:54.080 to do it about some public figure and you use ai to find out about me oh my god would your report be

00:08:02.800 wrong and then i go and how many times if i use grok and just the last week a whole bunch of times and

00:08:12.560 i've even reported to you about what is said i'll do it today actually a number of times but i assumed

00:08:20.480 that all the things grok was telling me on those other topics that were not about me i just figured

00:08:26.480 those were true but again what are the odds what are the odds that the only thing it hallucinates about is

00:08:36.080 me very low very low very small so i don't know how much of the other stuff it's hallucinated but boy

00:08:45.680 is it hallucinated about me so i tried it again today um with the new upgrade being announced and i don't

00:08:54.800 think i'm not sure but uh oh it the the only thing that got wrong uh all the other details were accurate for

00:09:05.360 the first time so the upgrade really made a difference the one thing that didn't get right

00:09:11.840 is understanding my cancellation but to be fair it didn't describe it the way the internet would

00:09:20.800 it's just that the internet doesn't have the right answer either so i'm gonna give that an a plus

00:09:27.920 because even though it was wrong about the one thing that sort of matters the most to me um it was not

00:09:35.360 out of whack with what the internet in general says so you know i'll accept that even though even though

00:09:43.360 it was wrong all right

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00:10:02.720 think so then i asked grok who is the first public figure to refer to democrats as quote theater

00:10:13.280 kids what do you think grok said when i asked it who came up with the idea

00:10:20.720 that the democrats were quote theater kids just acting out well grok said that it was scott jennings

00:10:30.000 who you know is a superstar conservative on cnn and so i went back to grok and i said

00:10:38.640 when is the first time that scott adams used the phrase theater kids and it went back and found out

00:10:46.400 that three months before scott jennings said it on tv that i had been tweeting it or posting on x

00:10:55.200 and then i said did you get that wrong why did you tell me it was scott jennings and then as soon as

00:11:01.360 i asked you a deeper question you correctly pointed out that that i had said it you know three months

00:11:08.400 before he said it and it said oh sorry you know it took me a a deeper look based on your question

00:11:16.720 and then i realized i got it wrong so i corrected it so as soon as i soon as i dug down a little bit

00:11:27.360 it you know it it was hallucinating now well i don't know that it was hallucinating but i think

00:11:34.160 what it did is is stopped looking after it satisfied itself and found the answer and it didn't look at

00:11:42.560 yeah at me so and by the way i don't know that i invented that it may be something i heard but i heard

00:11:51.360 it before scott jennings did so i don't know i don't know if i'm if i had any role in that other than repeating it

00:12:00.000 do not know um so then i asked it who who was the first political person who used the phrase

00:12:09.200 the golden age to describe trump's um administration the golden age what do you think he said well um

00:12:20.880 apparently grok isn't able to search on old twitter you know back into 2016 so it said i had a limitation

00:12:32.960 there couldn't look back that far i don't know why um but when i pressed it it said the earliest golden age

00:12:42.640 reference was by scott adams but i didn't even know where it was apparently i used that phrase in my

00:12:53.040 very viral 2015 post

00:12:58.320 that was right after trump had announced

00:13:01.520 in 2015 and i wrote a post called clown genius and i said that if trump becomes president

00:13:10.160 we will enter a new golden age of persuasion where facts don't matter and outcomes do

00:13:16.320 does that sound like a good prediction that we entered a golden age of persuasion

00:13:23.120 where the facts don't matter that's pretty much a precise explanation of everything you see in

00:13:30.480 politics right now it's all about persuasion so i nailed that but i don't uh i do not believe

00:13:38.640 that that reference caught on so it's more likely that the golden age is a common enough phrase

00:13:47.040 that more than one person would come up with it as the appropriate way to describe uh you know

00:13:52.880 trump world so i would not take credit

00:13:57.600 for theater kids nor for the golden age except maybe you know maybe the minor credit for being on the

00:14:06.880 same page with something that caught on but i don't know who said it first i may have been influenced by

00:14:13.360 somebody hard to know i've told you before that one of the ways i try to track my own influence

00:14:21.360 because my the size of my podcast is relatively small compared to you know the top 20 people that

00:14:29.360 you could think of off your top of your head but it's more uh it's more uh influential in my opinion

00:14:38.880 than most or maybe all of the political podcasts it's hard to know but uh one of the ways i track my

00:14:47.440 influence or try to is by the presence or spreading of unusual wording so whenever there's unusual wording

00:14:57.200 that's not historically common if i thought i was either promoting it or saying it first both of them would be

00:15:04.960 similar um if it if it catches on like the golden age was trending on x today it was one of the top trending

00:15:13.760 things um that i think hmm that might have been me but i you know you can't know for sure

00:15:21.280 anyway newsmax is reporting that uh managers are now using ai to decide on employee raises

00:15:33.120 most managers um so the majority of managers according to newsmax are using ai to determine raises

00:15:44.160 do you believe that well i don't know if it's true but it's definitely going to be a dilbert comic next week

00:15:54.960 talk about writing my comic strip using ai to give performance reviews oh i like it i like it a lot

00:16:03.760 especially when ai hallucinates oh i like it good so that'll be that'll be a dilbert comic coming up

00:16:11.280 bright bar news uh kurt zendulka is reporting that entry-level job hirings in britain are down by a third

00:16:25.520 since chat gpt was introduced do you believe that do you believe that the existence of chat gpt

00:16:34.560 is why britain is uh way down in hiring uh entry-level people well it might be true that chap gpt was

00:16:49.280 introduced and it might be true that they're way down in hiring but i do not believe that a third of the

00:16:58.640 entry-level jobs are being performed already by ai does anybody believe that now i do understand ai is

00:17:08.080 a big productivity booster for programmers but that's not really an entry-level job is it when i think of

00:17:16.560 entry-level jobs i think well maybe answering the phone you know are they replacing some phone workers

00:17:25.440 uh i don't see it to me that looks like a sort of an unexplained stat but i wouldn't explain it by ai

00:17:37.520 because it would be happening in the united states as well if one-third of the uh entry-level people in

00:17:45.600 britain were replaced already with ai that would already be happening in the us and there's no way you

00:17:54.640 wouldn't notice it would be impossible that we didn't know it by now so i'm gonna say i got some

00:18:04.720 skepticism about the connection between ai and entry-level hiring going down might be i mean i

00:18:12.240 wouldn't say zero chance that they're related but i'm pretty sure you would see examples in the us and

00:18:19.680 i haven't seen any all right um so the doj is uh joining with the lawsuits against the uh alleged

00:18:31.840 media tech giant collusion so this is according to reclaim the net dan freith is writing about this

00:18:39.440 um so the accusation is that uh some big media companies like bbc reuters ap etc um

00:18:55.680 they're up in arms about alleged suppression of independent media now i so i guess i would assume some

00:19:03.600 collusion um so do you think that's a uh good thing well i think so uh what is this about uh they're

00:19:20.000 accused of stifling independent journalism so not having uh necessarily links to independent journalists

00:19:27.600 you know more like just giving it to the big guys but i think there's a bigger problem now that google's

00:19:34.560 ai is answering questions um as soon as the search results come up so people are less likely to even

00:19:44.000 click on a link so if you were a you know big existing media giant and you depended on a lot of traffic

00:19:53.440 coming from google well that's all going away really fast because google will give you the

00:20:01.840 answer you don't have to click on the link so that's a big change in the world we'll see what that does

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00:21:10.960 well according to fox news uh the pentagon is claiming that the uh strikes on iran's nuclear project

00:21:22.720 set back the program two years to which i say is that a success

00:21:30.720 if it's only two years

00:21:34.000 doesn't it seem like unless it's completely stopped

00:21:37.600 that it would be not a success because in two years they're going to know more and act faster and

00:21:47.040 be more angry than they were before i don't know two years doesn't sound like a big success unless the

00:21:54.720 real story is that they won't bother to try it because they'll get bombed again and they would get bombed

00:22:00.880 again but um how many of you think iran is just going to say ah it's not worth it we're not going to

00:22:08.960 build up our nuclear capabilities it just doesn't seem possible does it i i feel like they're going to

00:22:17.920 try as hard as they can to rebuild it they've already kicked out you know the the un watchdog group

00:22:24.960 whose job it is to make sure they don't do that they just kicked them out of the country

00:22:32.640 and the washington group said that they could probably start re-refining uranium in a matter of months

00:22:41.600 so i don't know what to believe about that but we'll see if they're afraid

00:22:47.120 uh sorry i've got something in my lungs um yesterday i recorded a podcast with jordan peterson for his

00:22:59.840 podcast a uh i didn't see him in person but we were remote and his uh camera crew and audio guys

00:23:09.280 well the ones i hired uh came to my house so we converted one of my rooms into a little studio

00:23:17.120 uh sorry i'm gonna die here um and i think you're you're gonna like it because we we were planning

00:23:28.720 to go an hour and 15 minutes and we just sailed through that we were i think we were well over two

00:23:36.000 hours and i probably could have talked to him for another two hours because everything he says is

00:23:41.840 interesting and uh we just had a great time so look for that i'll let you know when it's released

00:23:48.960 it'll be on youtube most of it and then some portion of it will be on uh beyond a subscription wall

00:23:56.880 for the daily wire

00:24:00.320 should happen fairly quickly i'll let you know um new york post is reporting you how many times have you

00:24:06.640 heard this story but it keeps happening that uh msnbc and cnn's ratings continue to fall through the

00:24:15.120 floor at the same time that fox news ratings are sharply up so if you were gonna say to yourself hey it

00:24:25.840 must be that people don't want to watch tv news nope fox news proved that if your content is good

00:24:35.200 your your viewership goes up i don't know how much of that is is because uh greg gotfeld and

00:24:44.720 uh and jesse waters in particular um are monsters of entertainment at this point you know they're in

00:24:52.800 that domain the domain is news but they're both just monsters um yeah you know they bring a whole

00:25:01.200 different dimension because there's nobody on cnn or msnbc that is like either one of those personalities

00:25:09.280 and i think jesse learned what he learned from greg which is a great mentor to have by the way

00:25:16.640 um what greg brings to his you know two top rated shows on fox news is uh unpredictability

00:25:27.120 and he doesn't say what everybody else is saying and uh he breaks all the rules and he goes for the

00:25:35.200 greatest entertainment and you know it so if you're watching him you know he's going for the joke he's

00:25:41.040 going for the he's going for the show and watching watching fox news even you know including the other

00:25:49.360 shows it's a whole different experience so i can completely understand why they're just destroying the

00:25:55.760 field

00:25:58.640 anyway that story seems to repeat itself every month or two well they're down again but fox news is up again

00:26:07.440 so i told you that cnn um in my opinion and i could be wrong about this but it'd be weird um seems to be

00:26:20.160 trying harder than i've ever seen them try to talk about the news in the middle of the road instead of

00:26:29.920 being an anti-trump you know bias machine now they do have their biased people like anderson cooper

00:26:37.360 is ridiculous he doesn't look like he even belongs on the network anymore i think he's good they say

00:26:43.680 he's getting paid 18 million dollars a year i'm thinking really is that just to make the cia happy i mean 0.90

00:26:51.120 does even does even work for the network or does it work for some intelligence group that wants

00:26:57.360 to say bad things about trump well it's hard to tell if you watch him but the other the other hosts

00:27:04.240 on cnn a number of them seem to seem to have very much and very obviously looked for the middle

00:27:12.160 and we see more of that so um in the last uh few days the cnn hosts have been willing to say

00:27:22.720 it's about the best two weeks of any president's performance ever

00:27:28.560 trump's had the best summer the best six months and the best two weeks that you've ever seen just

00:27:37.280 unbelievably successful um and so cnn just frankly just admits that now they they just say it directly

00:27:46.320 it's like the best two weeks um but hakeem jeffries tried to stop the big beautiful bill with a with a

00:27:56.000 filibuster which is just one person talking for as long as i can to delay it what exactly did he think

00:28:04.640 he was going to accomplish did he think he was going to filibuster it until it couldn't get done on

00:28:11.600 july 4th or did his filibuster guarantee that it would be done and signed on july 4th which it will be

00:28:20.480 today which made it even a better show than it would have been if he'd signed it on july 3rd

00:28:27.200 if trump had signed it on the 3rd you really can't beat a trump signing of his most signature

00:28:35.840 important legislation on july 4th how do you beat that

00:28:41.840 but anyway hakeem jeffries is another theater kid and instead of offering something constructive

00:28:52.320 he decided to put on a one-man show that nobody cared about it it's almost like the poor man's cory booker

00:29:02.080 if you added cory booker and hakeem jeffries together you would have a person with normal eyes

00:29:14.400 think about that cory booker has these big saucer eyes

00:29:20.800 and hakeem has these sinister half-closed eyes so they're always half closed like like he's scheming

00:29:29.040 if the two of them got together had a child totally normalize somewhere in between

00:29:38.240 well as you know the house has passed the big beautiful bill and trump's gonna sign it today and

00:29:46.960 here is another example of what i've taught you this is a little persuasion lesson do you remember

00:29:55.440 i told you that artificial deadlines work really well even when everybody knows it's artificial

00:30:03.680 so when trump said we want to get this signed by july 4th or ideally even on july 4th

00:30:11.760 did people say oh that is a very important deadline if you miss that deadline we're all dead or something

00:30:20.000 no there's no reason it couldn't have been on july 6th

00:30:25.440 right you would tell yourself well we get exactly the same outcome two days later but there is

00:30:32.400 something magical about having an artificial deadline that's what the july 4th deadline was

00:30:38.560 very artificial and they hit it

00:30:43.200 if you were gonna bet would they hit the artificial deadline

00:30:48.240 it's not guaranteed because there are a lot of variables in play but it would have been a good bet

00:30:56.320 yeah the the odds of them hitting the artificial deadline are way higher than you imagine and

00:31:03.280 it's because people just organize for deadlines and they modify their behavior for the deadline even if

00:31:09.600 they know the deadline's gonna be yes that doesn't make that much difference i mean the country wouldn't

00:31:15.920 go out of business if it got uh signed on the seventh

00:31:22.240 so artificial deadline for the win

00:31:27.040 what did trump have to do to get the bill passed well apparently he made a bunch of vague

00:31:32.800 he made a bunch of vague unspecific promises to the holdouts

00:31:41.760 and they're all reporting that that satisfied them his vague unspecific comments so one of the complaints

00:31:48.960 was it doesn't lower the budget enough or it doesn't address the deficit which you know that's debatable

00:31:57.040 depending how you calculate it but um instead of making big cuts trump said oh i'll take care of

00:32:05.040 that with my executive orders later sort of a big vague promise

00:32:09.920 and that was enough to get the um i guess the freedom caucus got on board so the freedom caucus of

00:32:20.320 course wanted you know to be more aggressive taking down the debt but here's your other persuasion lesson

00:32:28.160 um it's called the fake because now you've heard me talk about it but every time you see an example of

00:32:37.680 it in the wild um it'll reinforce it the fake because is a reason you give somebody who wants to change their

00:32:46.640 mind but they need you to give them a reason so this is somebody who really really wants to give you what

00:32:54.160 you want but you're gonna have to come up with something that sounds like a reason even if it's

00:33:01.120 sort of ridiculous and fake so do you think the freedom caucus believes that they will get you know much

00:33:10.000 lower deficit because trump will do some executive orders about something or other in the future do 0.84

00:33:17.440 you think they believe that i don't i don't think they believe that he might take a swing at it

00:33:26.080 you know because he is good at keeping his promises but i don't know if it's possible

00:33:31.120 i mean how many executive orders can you do that would reduce the deficit

00:33:37.040 so to me that qualifies as a fake because you know you know the freedom caucus wanted to keep trump

00:33:45.680 happy because the alternative is very bad for the people who didn't keep them happy you know they might

00:33:51.360 get primaried so they wanted to say yes but they were on record being you know hard-nosed about the deficit

00:34:00.000 so how do you balance that you want you really want the president to get his way

00:34:06.480 because of all the blowback if he doesn't but also you support the president

00:34:10.080 but at the same time you've gone on record saying you would never support something that

00:34:16.960 that might be negative for the budget so you have two impossibles they solve it with a fake because

00:34:25.680 oh yeah no problem now we're going to say yes and vote for it because the president said he'd take

00:34:32.480 care of it with his executive orders sometime in the future unspecified that's a fake because

00:34:41.680 used well by the way so it's not that's not a criticism it's actually just a lesson

00:34:48.320 so you can make your own judgments about it

00:34:52.880 all right um

00:34:56.800 treasury secretary scott besant says that uh markets and

00:35:02.320 anticipated this bill was going to pass i think he's right about that and markets understand

00:35:08.560 the non-inflationary growth that we're going to get here all right so scott besant who i find very

00:35:15.360 credible um says that the bill will reduce the deficit over its you know full 10 years or whatever

00:35:24.080 but it's because it will spur growth so there will be more economic activity because of the bill

00:35:32.320 and that will create more income for everybody and that causes more taxes so so that actually

00:35:40.400 if you look at what they call a static versus a dynamic analysis

00:35:47.840 static means that they just look at what the bill does and dynamic means that they look at what the bill

00:35:53.920 does immediately as in what dollar amounts are allocated but they also look at how that might affect

00:36:03.200 the overall economy and if it gooses the economy that's not included in the official numbers you

00:36:10.160 usually see so scott besant says it's gonna make the economy grow faster so my question was i asked this of

00:36:22.080 grok which part of the big beautiful bill is going to make the economy grow faster because there's a whole

00:36:29.040 bunch of stuff in there that's not directly related to making the economy grow faster i mean you could

00:36:35.440 argue it but it doesn't seem like that's designed to do that and grok said that the tax cuts

00:36:44.880 would be part of the stimulation but then i asked it how often do tax cuts increase government tax revenue

00:36:56.560 and grok said and remember i just gave you a whole conversation about how grok might be hallucinating

00:37:06.000 i'll just tell you what it said and if you want to fact check that please do but it said

00:37:12.640 president kennedy did a big tax cut in his day but that's when taxes were like 90 on rich people it

00:37:21.200 reduced it's like 70 percent or something and apparently that did increase revenue of uh you know

00:37:30.720 tax revenue coming in but one of the problems that all the presidents have if they do anything that

00:37:38.000 increases uh income for the irs congress figures out just guesses it's free money and they started

00:37:46.960 spending it so even if you did increase the money coming in for taxes congress would look at it and

00:37:55.040 they wouldn't say oh finally these tax cuts spurred the economy on and and now we're going to reduce

00:38:02.800 our deficit they would not do that instead they would say oh looks like we got another 100 billion

00:38:10.160 to spend as long as all we have to do is go back to the deficit we had and it didn't kill us last time

00:38:18.400 so you have to be careful about these stimulus packages because even if they work congress could

00:38:26.560 snatch away the benefit almost immediately and then there was the reagan tax cuts that according to

00:38:33.680 grok did not pay for themselves i know you think differently but according to grok it did not pay

00:38:39.920 for itself and there were bush tax cuts that according to grok again it might be hallucinating but grok says

00:38:48.160 did not pay for itself and it says that the trump's first term tax cuts the ones you've already

00:38:56.240 seen from his first term did not increase um or did not decrease the deficit so is scott percent right

00:39:07.920 that the big beautiful bill will uh improve the deficit well it's not just tax cuts it's also

00:39:17.600 100 expensing of assets for manufacturing that's a pretty big deal

00:39:22.640 um he talks about no tax on tips for overtime and a deduction for senior citizens for something

00:39:30.800 but all those are essentially tax cuts

00:39:35.200 so how many of you believe that the trump big beautiful bill will boost the gdp so much

00:39:43.600 that it pays for itself how many of you believe that narrative

00:39:48.560 i'm very interested because i think most of you would just side with trump because you know his

00:39:58.320 credibility is kind of high at the moment because he's had such a good six months but do you believe

00:40:04.320 that well i think the answer is it depends

00:40:09.120 yeah it depends there there is a way it could work it could definitely work but maybe not just because

00:40:19.760 of the bill so trump is doing a lot more than just the big beautiful bill right um what about uh reducing

00:40:29.840 the number of migrants coming across the border so that's in the bill if he reduces the number of

00:40:36.480 migrants coming across the border wouldn't that give more jobs to citizens and wouldn't that be a 1.00

00:40:43.920 good stimulation that maybe we didn't include yet could be could be a big deal what about boosting the

00:40:51.040 military well if boosting the military spending causes another country to say we don't want to get

00:40:58.240 in a war with you because you've got a lot of toys over there well that would save us the cost of a war

00:41:05.280 which would be good for the deficit so pretty much everything the government does has either a direct

00:41:11.840 or indirect effect on the deficit so i don't know that you could ever calculate which way it's going to

00:41:20.400 go too many variables and i would compare this to climate models the reason climate models are ridiculous

00:41:30.640 is because you can tweak it to be anything you want based on the assumptions that you put into it

00:41:37.600 that would be true with this deficit reduction stuff and the big beautiful bill depending on what

00:41:44.000 assumptions you made it would either be wildly positive or wildly negative

00:41:50.240 and the assumptions are things that are unknowns

00:41:52.480 so if you believe anybody's estimate scott the sense or anybody else's i wouldn't do that

00:42:02.160 well yeah i mean somebody's going to be right and then afterwards they'll say look how right i was

00:42:07.280 but it's only because it's a binary it's either going to increase the deficit or it's not

00:42:12.320 and they're going to be people on both sides so somebody's going to say see i told you because

00:42:20.720 there's only two ways they could go it's either up or down but can you can you calculate that with

00:42:28.000 any kind of degree of certainty in advance no not really not really but it's definitely possible

00:42:36.000 and as i've said before um trump is the only president who could maybe make that work

00:42:42.960 because he's a salesman and he is selling america hard he's got the he's got the tariffs going on he's

00:42:50.320 got the trying to stay out of wars which is a real good idea um he's closing the border you know he's

00:42:59.040 doing a lot of stuff this should be good for the economy he's reducing regulations like crazy

00:43:04.240 he's promoting nuclear energy in just the right way as far as i can tell he's he's jewel baby drill

00:43:11.440 so it's just one thing after another that trump is doing that should have a uh you know good impact

00:43:19.600 on the economy so yeah there's a solid possibility not because of the big beautiful bill but because of

00:43:27.920 all of the things that trump is doing that he could goose the economy enough especially if he gets

00:43:35.760 jerome powell to reduce the interest rates by a point if all of that came together

00:43:42.640 and at least by may of next year i'm sure there will be an interest rate reduction because you'll

00:43:48.400 have a new uh new head of the fed somebody that trump puts in there uh if you put it all together

00:43:54.400 could it goose the economy enough to reduce the deficit yes yes it could the thing you have to

00:44:02.880 watch out for is what i warned you of that congress says hey look we reduced that deficit i guess that's

00:44:09.920 free money we can spend on our other stuff that's the thing you gotta watch out for all right um when i

00:44:18.800 found out my friend got a great deal on a wool coat from winners i started wondering is every

00:44:24.800 fabulous item i see from winners like that woman over there with the designer jeans are those from 1.00

00:44:30.560 winners ooh are those beautiful gold earrings did she pay full price or that leather tote or that 1.00

00:44:36.320 cashmere sweater or those knee-high boots that dress that jacket those shoes is anyone paying full

00:44:42.720 price for anything stop wondering start winning winners find fabulous for less here are some

00:44:50.000 examples of cnn trying to find the middle of the road on their their bias um so the cnn host sarah

00:45:00.480 sidner was talking to debbie wasserman prominent democrat and uh the cnn host said here are some things

00:45:08.400 that have happened gas prices down economic indicators are decent the brand new job report

00:45:15.200 shows that's much better than expected and border crash crossings are down and now trump's a mega

00:45:22.000 spending bill looks like it's going to be passed by republicans and she said how do you democrats fight

00:45:28.960 back with the wins that trump can tout now is that middle of the road it is it's it's a really

00:45:38.320 good example of them trying hard not to be just full of tds because the things that she lists as

00:45:47.040 trump's accomplishments are all real and it's almost exactly what you would have said right i mean you

00:45:55.360 would have said the same thing he did all these things gas prices are down blah blah so they're not

00:46:00.480 denying him as you might imagine before in the old days i think they would have said well you know trump

00:46:07.920 doesn't really have anything to do with the jobs so you can't give him credit but they don't do that

00:46:14.720 they just say that trump has had a whole bunch of wins which is the way you would have said it

00:46:22.000 um see and also we're surprised and in a positive way that the jobs reports was so strong

00:46:32.400 so instead of saying oh this is joe biden's job report because joe biden set us up so that the

00:46:39.840 jobs this year would be good yeah that's sort of what you expect didn't do that they just said the

00:46:46.400 jobs report was incredible under trump you know full credit they're giving him and then uh cnn's uh berman he's

00:46:57.840 one of their hosts he said predictions of job losses and inflation due to tariff policies have been wrong

00:47:04.480 that doom just hasn't happened yet he did throw in yet so it's hard to break habits so you have to

00:47:12.640 have to give you a little bit of yet but that's fair i i also say yet on on that the question of the

00:47:20.720 tariffs it's possible that the tariffs will cause a little bit of inflation but i would say the the

00:47:28.960 optimistic view is the strong one right now that it probably won't and it might be just extra revenue

00:47:37.360 for for america while inflation stays in a reasonable place good chance of that

00:47:43.680 and then trump said now that he's got the big beautiful bill passed trump was at an iowa rally

00:47:55.200 and he said that he's working on a mass amnesty for millions of illegal farm hotel and leisure workers

00:48:03.600 um does that sound like exactly what you didn't vote for mass amnesty of undocumented

00:48:13.200 workers in this country now it's not all of them it's the ones that are in the farming and hotel

00:48:20.240 leisure business but do you also say to yourself well that's mighty convenient because trump is in the

00:48:28.400 hotel leisure business and it's probably exactly what his properties want so there's a little bit of a

00:48:36.800 conflict of interest there but as i've said a million times and i've said about not just trump

00:48:45.520 when things are completely transparent they just don't bother me as much it would be the lying and the

00:48:53.280 cover-up so would bother me but if a guy who's famous for owning hotels tells you he's going to do

00:49:00.240 something that's good for the hotel industry i say to myself okay that's transparent you don't have to

00:49:08.800 wonder if he thinks it's good for his own properties that's just a yes so is the only reason that he would

00:49:17.840 consider this that if you throw in the farm workers it looks like it's not just about hotels and he can

00:49:24.880 he can act like the industry forced him to do it you know with their good arguments well

00:49:30.960 um to me the interesting part of this story is that he has he has so much credibility now with his base

00:49:42.080 because of his great six months that he can reverse himself on something that probably matters quite a

00:49:48.720 bit at least in people's minds and they would consider this as he says the the radical right

00:49:56.080 the radical right um i haven't heard him use that phrase before but he is minimizing the people who

00:50:02.720 would disagree with him on this even though it clearly is a reversal of what you expected but he's

00:50:11.120 created so much credibility that if he does a reversal of you know one item that you thought you thought

00:50:19.440 was going to go the other way my reaction was oh all right let's see how it works out um joe rogan

00:50:32.160 was saying and it's important because the only reason i'm mentioning this he's he's got some comments

00:50:37.600 about the uh deportations um the only reason i mention it is that joe rogan's platform is so big

00:50:44.480 and he's i don't call him a republican i don't think he's ever been a republican but people do

00:50:55.600 consider his opinion you know worth you know worth their time so he's just sort of a middle of the road

00:51:02.800 common sense smart guy so when he says something it's not like random people saying it he's got a big

00:51:10.400 platform and he's created a good reputation for his own opinion so i listen to him when he talks and

00:51:18.720 what he said was um about uh the mass deportations he says it's insane the targeting of migrant workers

00:51:28.000 not cartel members not gang members not drug dealers just construction workers showing up on

00:51:34.800 construction sites and raiding them now we don't have a need to have a conversation about whether

00:51:43.600 joe rogan has the best take on it um i tell you because that's probably a pretty common opinion at

00:51:51.520 this point you know maybe people don't say it out loud and especially pundits who are pro-trump like

00:51:58.000 myself we probably don't say it out loud enough but you know that's my opinion right you know when when

00:52:05.680 trump would say we're gonna start with the worst first i said to myself you know you'll never get

00:52:11.520 done with the worst but if we get rid of the worst and you close the border we will in maybe just a few

00:52:21.040 short years we'll absorb the ones who already came they're already working they're probably paying taxes

00:52:27.840 and uh yeah i would treat the people who were productive members of society differently i i i

00:52:35.920 would probably not deport them at all if i were president so i would agree with joe rogan on that

00:52:43.520 however let me just say as clearly as i can if you were in the camp of well screw that they came here

00:52:50.640 illegally you have to send the ball back and no matter how much it hurts employers no

00:52:56.720 matter how much it hurts the economy no matter how much lack of empathy it is what we voted for

00:53:04.320 you might say is send the ball back so that's all that's the only thing i'm going to accept and so

00:53:11.520 you would feel maybe backstabbed by trump because he's softening up on the farming and leisure leisure

00:53:18.240 industry but uh my own opinion probably matches joe rogan exactly so i'm just being transparent as well

00:53:29.840 i completely understand your argument if you think send them all back

00:53:34.400 because what you voted for and what is best for the country i get it i understand every bit of that

00:53:40.880 and if there's one thing i've taught you it's that people don't make decisions based on facts

00:53:47.520 this is an example of me not making a decision based on facts i do not have a factual argument

00:53:55.040 i have an emotional one my emotional argument and i would bet without knowing that joe rogan has the

00:54:02.480 same emotional argument and it goes like this i've had a lot of interaction with undocumented um south

00:54:11.520 of the border people and they're wonderful people and they're just trying to make a better life

00:54:18.720 and to me they feel like americans you know no matter how much they still have their accent

00:54:24.640 they're they're religious they're family oriented they're here for work they're they're here to stay

00:54:30.160 out of trouble they won't even drive over the speed limit because they don't want to get picked

00:54:34.800 up and deported so there's there's a bunch of people who if you were going to rank how much you

00:54:42.080 liked them you know just your empathy you would rank them pretty high even compared to the citizens

00:54:48.400 who are already here and some of them are some of them are unpleasant now that it's a completely

00:54:56.240 different argument than the ones who are criminals and you know we all agree on shipping them back

00:55:03.440 but i would say that my empathy gene makes me argue to keep the ones who are doing everything right

00:55:15.120 but if you say i don't know anybody in that community and i'm using you know my logic my facts

00:55:22.480 and saying if we send them all back there'll be americans who take that jobs it's all good for us

00:55:29.200 i get that i get that i i would love to tell you that my logic on this debate is better than your

00:55:37.520 logic it isn't i'm completely aware of the fact that whatever my logic is is really just a positive

00:55:45.600 feeling about that community in general because i spend a lot of time around them and that's it

00:55:52.240 i just have a an empathy response that i turn into an argument

00:55:59.760 all right i saw somebody ask this question you can remind me who it was

00:56:05.200 because it was a public figure um why is it the only western countries are expected to have open borders

00:56:12.000 borders have you ever noticed that like nobody is nobody's on putin for saying you know you really

00:56:18.560 need to open your border you know even as a side conversation it's just not a conversation what about

00:56:25.920 china do we ever say we're not going to do a trade deal with you unless you open your borders 1.00

00:56:32.400 it doesn't even come up is japan opening their border a lot no it's basically english-speaking

00:56:40.560 white countries that are being asked to destroy themselves with unlimited immigration and whoever 1.00

00:56:48.000 it was who said this first i wish i could credit them because it was a good observation

00:56:54.480 i don't think there's any way this is a coincidence it looks to me like countries that would like to

00:57:01.200 destroy the united states and europe and other you know white dominant countries it looks like an attempt 0.98

00:57:09.280 to simply destroy white people and white people's assets um for whatever reason you know either for 0.97

00:57:17.680 their own domination or because they're mad at us or whatever it is but to me it's just purely racist 0.98

00:57:25.360 against white western people and that would be a good enough argument to ship everybody back 0.98

00:57:33.280 so if you look at it as an attack which is sort of the view that i'm starting to come around to

00:57:43.280 i don't think it's a bunch of americans who have a different opinion about the border it feels to me

00:57:49.680 like our enemies have weaponized citizens of this country who are unwittingly working for the opposition

00:57:59.200 the opposition being let's say china or russia or somebody who doesn't like us so to me the border the

00:58:06.720 open border thing looked like an attack and sort of a modern way that countries fight instead of having

00:58:16.080 wars with bullets they influence and they do dirty tricks and they they infiltrate and they send their

00:58:23.040 spies over if you look at the number of chinese spies that are being captured in america it's an alarming

00:58:30.880 number of spies you know if i asked you what do you think is the total number of chinese spies in america

00:58:39.760 i don't know what you'd say but i almost guarantee you would guess too low i feel like they've really

00:58:47.520 flooded the country with spies and we don't you know we don't have any sense of how many there are

00:58:53.760 maybe iran is at the same time maybe some other countries um but to me the open border looked like

00:59:03.040 a military action that was disguised as something else so that's my current view

00:59:09.280 uh the blaze is uh reminding us that if trump gets away with doing a new census where he does some

00:59:18.720 executive order and doesn't doesn't count um non-citizens that uh blue states would lose a bunch

00:59:26.960 of representatives and maybe red states would gain them uh well they would gain them in comparison 0.99

00:59:33.440 um and could completely change politics in this country so just as the democrats trying to bring in a

00:59:42.240 bunch of voters um if trump you know uses the census and his executive orders to minimize their impact

00:59:53.600 he could be able to lock in a much um something like a republican majority for a long time so the stakes are

01:00:01.920 very high on that question all right uh i saw a post by fisherking64 who is a great follow on x

01:00:16.080 he said that after trump no future president will be able to pretend that he cannot close the border

01:00:23.280 it will be impossible to say that the only way to control illegal immigration is through a quote

01:00:29.840 comprehensive immigration reform that amounts that amounts to amnesty

01:00:36.720 now what do you think of that i'm going to say that the comprehensive immigration bill was a hoax

01:00:44.480 it was always a hoax and your news sources except for fox news never told you that that was fake

01:00:54.400 so on cnn and msnbc they would let pundit after pundit after freaking pundit say oh we we could close the

01:01:04.640 border but the only way to close the border is with a comprehensive immigration bill that basically would

01:01:11.920 let a lot of people in and you probably said to yourself well i know that's not true

01:01:18.560 we could definitely close the border without a comprehensive immigration bill and then trump 0.99

01:01:25.120 comes in and immediately does it he closes the border tight as a baby's ass 1.00

01:01:32.560 is that a saying no tighter than a gnats ass it's smoother than a baby's ass but tighter than a gnats 1.00

01:01:39.920 ass so he closes the border tighter than a gnats ass with no comprehensive immigration bill 1.00

01:01:49.600 can can we finally admit that the comprehensive immigration bill was nothing but a hoax 0.99

01:01:57.200 and that even the democrats knew that they were lying about the need for it they all knew they were lying

01:02:02.960 come on they all knew it so that hoax is buried might pop up again who knows well trump said at his

01:02:14.480 iowa event he said that uh the celebration for the country's 250th birthday which is next year

01:02:22.640 might include a ufc fight on the grounds of the white house lawn

01:02:27.920 oh my goodness does trump know how to put it on a show so apparently dana white would be either 1.00

01:02:39.280 tasked with doing it or he volunteered but can you even imagine a a more trump-like spectacle

01:02:48.560 than a ufc fight on the grounds of the white house for the 250th anniversary

01:02:53.840 i mean i just want to i just want to stand up and give that like a a full ovation put that in the

01:03:01.600 category of things that only trump could do only trump no one else and by the way i'm not a fan of ufc

01:03:11.280 uh you know to me it's brutal and yeah but it's like a car accident i would definitely watch it

01:03:19.840 i would watch it i mean 100 i'm gonna watch it if he does it but you know it's not my preferred sport

01:03:29.920 to watch but it is entertaining so there's that only trump could do that well the new york times

01:03:39.760 has a story in which our favorite communist uh zorian mondani uh apparently got into columbia

01:03:48.880 where he got his degree i believe uh by claiming he's black now he's not black and he's never been

01:03:57.520 black but he he was born in africa of two indian parents and he and when he was uh he was asked about

01:04:07.680 that he admits he's not black um and he would never claim he was black but not too long ago he claimed he

01:04:17.360 was black to get into columbia and apparently it worked so did he take the spot of a black applicant 0.86

01:04:26.560 i would say yes because if they let him in thinking he was black 0.91

01:04:32.240 and those were spaces that they would have given to black applicants yes yes he took he took a black 0.90

01:04:39.360 applicant's job or college education i guess first um so that might cause him some trouble we'll see

01:04:51.360 well bill ackman famous investor billionaire bill ackman who uh has been quite active and at least

01:04:59.040 posting on acts about politics um he's decided to back eric adams um and he had a very long post as

01:05:08.400 as bill ackman famously does his posts are wonderfully long but always well argued so he has the longest

01:05:17.840 posts that are also still worth reading so he's got that going for him um but here's one of the things

01:05:25.280 that he said in his analysis of eric adams versus zoren mamdani he said that quote adams not me but eric

01:05:38.080 adams is also always authentically himself his smile is real unlike the other guys and in my experience the

01:05:48.080 more authentic candidate always wins there it is so bill ackman either because he heard me or somebody

01:05:57.680 that heard me say it um is starting to focus on mamdani's fake smile i told you that as soon as you

01:06:08.000 hear the the criticism about his smile you will never forget it how many of you have looked at him since

01:06:16.480 i mentioned that his smile is creepy how many of you have seen a picture of it and said to yourself

01:06:23.040 oh man i i didn't really notice before but his smile is really creepy tell me in the comments how many

01:06:31.520 of you how many of you were were instantly flipped to see his smile as a negative when in fact it was

01:06:41.120 maybe one of his strongest political assets did i reframe that i did now i'm not saying we're here

01:06:48.800 once again uh i would not say that bill actman was influenced by something i did or something that

01:06:56.000 somebody else copied and then he saw so i i have no reason to believe that but i do believe he's very

01:07:02.720 smart and insightful and may have just come to the same conclusion that his smile could be seen as a

01:07:09.920 negative um and i would uh double down on his his statement that eric adams seems genuine

01:07:21.440 i don't know if any politician is genuine or authentic you know maybe that's never a thing

01:07:26.800 but he does seem like it you know whatever eric adams is talking even though he's you know not my

01:07:33.920 he's not my reference on every policy but whatever he's talking i say to myself there's a common sense

01:07:41.840 authentic guy who's trying to do things which obviously are good for the the city so every time

01:07:48.960 i see eric adams i have an immediate positive vibe that goes beyond the policy stuff so i can see myself

01:07:58.240 supporting him even while disagreeing with some of his policies i don't know which ones i disagree with

01:08:04.480 but i'm sure there are some because he is really charismatic and he's charismatic in that trump way where

01:08:13.760 you see him as genuine and you see his empathy and you see that he it looks to me like he's really

01:08:20.720 trying to make stuff better you know i mean it's also a job and it's politics but he really looks like

01:08:26.800 he really wants it to be better and in a common sense way that always appeals to me so we'll see all right

01:08:35.280 um apparently the saudis are not that keen to recognize israel and make a deal and join the

01:08:43.600 abraham accords because they are not really over the bombing of tehran because i guess they had you

01:08:52.320 know i always thought that saudi arabia and iran were basically just enemies so that saudi would just be

01:08:59.840 happy that iran got uh got uh bombed back a few years but no they're calling israel's war i think

01:09:09.360 they're talking about gaza um they're calling israel's war genocide and saying that they couldn't they 0.95

01:09:16.640 couldn't possibly normalize with israel without having a palestinian state and since israel in my

01:09:24.880 opinion is never ever going to agree to having a two-state solution that would sort of suggest

01:09:32.800 that uh saudi arabia is out of play now but if yeah but if you introduce trump who is the miracle

01:09:42.880 man having the year of best year ever could he flip saudi arabia all the way from we can't be

01:09:50.800 friends with israel because we accuse them of genocide all the way to hey why don't you guys be 0.99

01:09:57.360 friends and be part of this big old group the abraham accords could trump do it well probably

01:10:05.920 everything depends on what the crown prince is thinking and not this i think the comments came from

01:10:13.280 um a lower a lower a lower official in saudi arabia so i feel like probably the personal

01:10:22.560 relationship with the crown prince is going to matter the most and that the crown prince is not

01:10:28.560 predictable um he's not predictable because you expect him to do whatever whatever saudi arabia has

01:10:36.480 always done but he's just not that guy he could do something that they've never done and uh that's

01:10:45.280 sort of what makes him interesting and what makes him especially interesting if he's paired with uh trump

01:10:52.720 um i would love to know what he thinks of trump i'll bet he has a really positive opinion of trump

01:10:59.760 that maybe he doesn't say out loud so much but maybe

01:11:07.200 meanwhile uh vladimir putin continues to gain ground in ukraine and uh apparently he had a phone

01:11:15.760 call with trump in which he he showed no interest whatsoever in ending the war so he talks like he

01:11:23.680 might want to but when it comes down to the actual phone call with trump no he's happy just grinding

01:11:31.760 away on ukraine until he gets it all it looks like um but there's a side story here which is there's a

01:11:39.680 video of pudin was um he was on the panel on a stage at some big event so there were multiple people in

01:11:48.240 chairs on the stage he's he was one of them and he's told while he's on stage in the middle of an

01:11:54.720 event somebody tells him that trump is on the phone and he and instead of saying you know i'll get back

01:12:02.320 to him he explains that leaving trump waiting you know might be disrespectful and that he's going to

01:12:10.400 leave the the audience waiting instead and he gets up and he leaves and tells him he's going to take

01:12:15.200 the president's phone call because he wants to show him the respect of immediately taking the phone call

01:12:22.160 so trump and putin have an interesting respectful relationship maybe that'll turn into something

01:12:32.880 better at the moment it doesn't help us at all but maybe someday it will all right ladies and gentlemen

01:12:40.800 that is your fourth of july happy birthday um america that's your podcast for the day

01:12:52.160 like i say there may be a lot of lazy podcasters who don't do any content today but i'm not one of

01:12:58.960 those if you're going to be here i'll be here that's that's my deal or i'll try to be do the best i can

01:13:05.200 so i'm going to say some words privately to the beloved subscribers to locals the rest of you

01:13:14.480 thanks for joining have an amazing day today and enjoy all the wins and i will see you tomorrow same

01:13:22.400 time same place and locals will be proud

01:13:35.200 thank you

01:13:57.680 you

01:14:05.200 Thank you.

01:14:35.200 Thank you.

01:15:05.200 Thank you.

01:15:35.200 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - July 04, 2025

Episode 2887 CWSA 07⧸04⧸25

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