Episode 2887 CWSA 07⧸04⧸25
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 16 minutes
Words per Minute
132.87538
Summary
In this episode of Coffee with Scott Adams, Scott Adams talks about a hot dog experiment, climate change, nuclear micro reactors, and the loss of sea ice in the arctic, and much, much more! Enjoy, and spread the word to your friends about this podcast!
Transcript
00:00:00.000
it's about time come on in happy 4th of july it's good to see you again
00:00:09.120
pick up a chair in the front so i can look at your smiling face
00:00:19.920
and while all the lazy people lazy podcasters are taking the day off not me no i'm here for you
00:00:42.800
good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of human civilization it's called
00:00:48.640
coffee with scott adams and you've never had a better time but if you'd like to take a chance
00:00:55.680
of improving how you feel even though it seems impossible well to do that all you need is a
00:01:03.600
cup or mug or a glass a tanker chelsea and a canteen jug or flask what else a vessel of any kind fill
00:01:11.600
it with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the
00:01:17.520
dopamine hit of the day the thing that makes everything better it's called the simultaneous
00:01:35.440
all right well let's uh check in with science and see if science is enlightening us at all
00:01:43.600
well here's a story from the new york post it says that just one hot dog a day may increase the risk
00:01:53.040
of colorectal cancer so one hot dog just one hot dog a day would increase the risk of colorectal
00:02:02.480
cancer well that raises a interesting question what would happen if you put the hot dog in your mouth
00:02:09.760
instead everybody anybody all right it's hard to do a cop on each it's hard to do a joke
00:02:21.600
live stream because there's no feedback so i don't know if it just wouldn't clunk
00:02:27.120
or if you're laughing yourself to death but that was a heck of a good joke
00:02:31.840
well according to joe nova whoever that is there's a unexpected change in the sea ice around antarctica
00:02:46.240
where there are 1.5 million square kilometers of sea ice that are missing missing meaning melted
00:02:55.120
now you're probably saying to yourself my god they've proven climate change is real
00:03:01.120
because of all that arctic antarctic sea ice that melted but it's the opposite because the
00:03:10.880
the climate models did not predict that there would be a sudden massive decrease in ice
00:03:17.520
and not long ago when antarctica was in the other direction when it should have been melting
00:03:24.640
there was a massive increase in ice that also the climate models did not anticipate they they think
00:03:33.760
it might be because the melting might be because of a change in salinity in the ocean you know more more
00:03:41.280
salt equals more melting but they don't know for sure but uh you know what i'm gonna say next right
00:03:51.280
do you know what i'm gonna say oh i'm gonna say it goes like this wait until you find out about the climate models
00:04:00.240
honestly honestly it's gonna be one of my best weeks ever someday and it's probably not far off
00:04:10.720
it might happen in the next year or two someday there's gonna be a whistleblower
00:04:17.120
who says i worked on climate models and i can tell you for sure they're complete
00:04:22.720
bullshit and we just do it for funding oh it's coming
00:04:28.080
it's coming it's coming well another sign of the golden age
00:04:36.640
idaho national laboratories is putting together a nuclear micro reactor test bed so this is a u.s
00:04:45.600
government project so the reason you need a micro reactor test bed is that if you want to build and
00:04:54.480
design a innovative small nuclear power plant there might be a number of resources you need to test it
00:05:04.640
and perfect it so now the u.s has a place that you can take your small nuclear reactor design and test it out
00:05:18.160
now how much do we need that a lot a lot we really really need that and we haven't so another sign of the
00:05:29.600
golden age we're gonna maybe catch up with other countries like china and the nuclear department if we
00:05:42.640
well uh elon musk says that grok the ai has improved significantly um as of today so it was released
00:05:52.320
today a new new version and i did a little test i think i told you um before the upgrade um just two
00:06:02.480
days ago maybe i i asked grok to tell me what i had contributed to society not counting dilbert
00:06:13.440
and it hallucinated like crazy so i'm reading the list of all the things that says i contributed to
00:06:21.280
the world and i know half of it was made up stuff i'd never seen participated in you know had no connection
00:06:30.320
to and i thought to myself huh another perfect application of gel man amnesia now you all know
00:06:39.360
what that is because you're regulars but in case there's somebody new here that's an observation by a
00:06:45.360
famous physicist whose last name was gel man who noticed that when he read a story about physics in the
00:06:53.440
news it was always wrong but that's because he was an expert on that field but the moment he turned
00:07:01.040
the page you would see an article on some other industry or field and he would assume that that was
00:07:07.360
accurate and then eventually he figured out wait a minute what are the odds that every time i know
00:07:15.120
something about the story it's inaccurate but when i don't know anything about the story i assume it's
00:07:20.880
accurate is it possible that they're only inaccurate on stories that i know something about and that's
00:07:28.480
what he correctly generalized that to the idea that the news is probably inaccurate all the time
00:07:37.760
well sure enough when i asked grok before the upgrade so this is just yesterday the day before
00:07:45.040
um it was hallucinating really badly so if you were doing a school report and you were you know going
00:07:54.080
to do it about some public figure and you use ai to find out about me oh my god would your report be
00:08:02.800
wrong and then i go and how many times if i use grok and just the last week a whole bunch of times and
00:08:12.560
i've even reported to you about what is said i'll do it today actually a number of times but i assumed
00:08:20.480
that all the things grok was telling me on those other topics that were not about me i just figured
00:08:26.480
those were true but again what are the odds what are the odds that the only thing it hallucinates about is
00:08:36.080
me very low very low very small so i don't know how much of the other stuff it's hallucinated but boy
00:08:45.680
is it hallucinated about me so i tried it again today um with the new upgrade being announced and i don't
00:08:54.800
think i'm not sure but uh oh it the the only thing that got wrong uh all the other details were accurate for
00:09:05.360
the first time so the upgrade really made a difference the one thing that didn't get right
00:09:11.840
is understanding my cancellation but to be fair it didn't describe it the way the internet would
00:09:20.800
it's just that the internet doesn't have the right answer either so i'm gonna give that an a plus
00:09:27.920
because even though it was wrong about the one thing that sort of matters the most to me um it was not
00:09:35.360
out of whack with what the internet in general says so you know i'll accept that even though even though
00:09:51.440
bank more encores when you switch to a scotia bank banking package
00:09:55.920
learn more at scotia bank.com banking packages conditions apply scotia bank you're richer than you
00:10:02.720
think so then i asked grok who is the first public figure to refer to democrats as quote theater
00:10:13.280
kids what do you think grok said when i asked it who came up with the idea
00:10:20.720
that the democrats were quote theater kids just acting out well grok said that it was scott jennings
00:10:30.000
who you know is a superstar conservative on cnn and so i went back to grok and i said
00:10:38.640
when is the first time that scott adams used the phrase theater kids and it went back and found out
00:10:46.400
that three months before scott jennings said it on tv that i had been tweeting it or posting on x
00:10:55.200
and then i said did you get that wrong why did you tell me it was scott jennings and then as soon as
00:11:01.360
i asked you a deeper question you correctly pointed out that that i had said it you know three months
00:11:08.400
before he said it and it said oh sorry you know it took me a a deeper look based on your question
00:11:16.720
and then i realized i got it wrong so i corrected it so as soon as i soon as i dug down a little bit
00:11:27.360
it you know it it was hallucinating now well i don't know that it was hallucinating but i think
00:11:34.160
what it did is is stopped looking after it satisfied itself and found the answer and it didn't look at
00:11:42.560
yeah at me so and by the way i don't know that i invented that it may be something i heard but i heard
00:11:51.360
it before scott jennings did so i don't know i don't know if i'm if i had any role in that other than repeating it
00:12:00.000
do not know um so then i asked it who who was the first political person who used the phrase
00:12:09.200
the golden age to describe trump's um administration the golden age what do you think he said well um
00:12:20.880
apparently grok isn't able to search on old twitter you know back into 2016 so it said i had a limitation
00:12:32.960
there couldn't look back that far i don't know why um but when i pressed it it said the earliest golden age
00:12:42.640
reference was by scott adams but i didn't even know where it was apparently i used that phrase in my
00:13:01.520
in 2015 and i wrote a post called clown genius and i said that if trump becomes president
00:13:10.160
we will enter a new golden age of persuasion where facts don't matter and outcomes do
00:13:16.320
does that sound like a good prediction that we entered a golden age of persuasion
00:13:23.120
where the facts don't matter that's pretty much a precise explanation of everything you see in
00:13:30.480
politics right now it's all about persuasion so i nailed that but i don't uh i do not believe
00:13:38.640
that that reference caught on so it's more likely that the golden age is a common enough phrase
00:13:47.040
that more than one person would come up with it as the appropriate way to describe uh you know
00:13:57.600
for theater kids nor for the golden age except maybe you know maybe the minor credit for being on the
00:14:06.880
same page with something that caught on but i don't know who said it first i may have been influenced by
00:14:13.360
somebody hard to know i've told you before that one of the ways i try to track my own influence
00:14:21.360
because my the size of my podcast is relatively small compared to you know the top 20 people that
00:14:29.360
you could think of off your top of your head but it's more uh it's more uh influential in my opinion
00:14:38.880
than most or maybe all of the political podcasts it's hard to know but uh one of the ways i track my
00:14:47.440
influence or try to is by the presence or spreading of unusual wording so whenever there's unusual wording
00:14:57.200
that's not historically common if i thought i was either promoting it or saying it first both of them would be
00:15:04.960
similar um if it if it catches on like the golden age was trending on x today it was one of the top trending
00:15:13.760
things um that i think hmm that might have been me but i you know you can't know for sure
00:15:21.280
anyway newsmax is reporting that uh managers are now using ai to decide on employee raises
00:15:33.120
most managers um so the majority of managers according to newsmax are using ai to determine raises
00:15:44.160
do you believe that well i don't know if it's true but it's definitely going to be a dilbert comic next week
00:15:54.960
talk about writing my comic strip using ai to give performance reviews oh i like it i like it a lot
00:16:03.760
especially when ai hallucinates oh i like it good so that'll be that'll be a dilbert comic coming up
00:16:11.280
bright bar news uh kurt zendulka is reporting that entry-level job hirings in britain are down by a third
00:16:25.520
since chat gpt was introduced do you believe that do you believe that the existence of chat gpt
00:16:34.560
is why britain is uh way down in hiring uh entry-level people well it might be true that chap gpt was
00:16:49.280
introduced and it might be true that they're way down in hiring but i do not believe that a third of the
00:16:58.640
entry-level jobs are being performed already by ai does anybody believe that now i do understand ai is
00:17:08.080
a big productivity booster for programmers but that's not really an entry-level job is it when i think of
00:17:16.560
entry-level jobs i think well maybe answering the phone you know are they replacing some phone workers
00:17:25.440
uh i don't see it to me that looks like a sort of an unexplained stat but i wouldn't explain it by ai
00:17:37.520
because it would be happening in the united states as well if one-third of the uh entry-level people in
00:17:45.600
britain were replaced already with ai that would already be happening in the us and there's no way you
00:17:54.640
wouldn't notice it would be impossible that we didn't know it by now so i'm gonna say i got some
00:18:04.720
skepticism about the connection between ai and entry-level hiring going down might be i mean i
00:18:12.240
wouldn't say zero chance that they're related but i'm pretty sure you would see examples in the us and
00:18:19.680
i haven't seen any all right um so the doj is uh joining with the lawsuits against the uh alleged
00:18:31.840
media tech giant collusion so this is according to reclaim the net dan freith is writing about this
00:18:39.440
um so the accusation is that uh some big media companies like bbc reuters ap etc um
00:18:55.680
they're up in arms about alleged suppression of independent media now i so i guess i would assume some
00:19:03.600
collusion um so do you think that's a uh good thing well i think so uh what is this about uh they're
00:19:20.000
accused of stifling independent journalism so not having uh necessarily links to independent journalists
00:19:27.600
you know more like just giving it to the big guys but i think there's a bigger problem now that google's
00:19:34.560
ai is answering questions um as soon as the search results come up so people are less likely to even
00:19:44.000
click on a link so if you were a you know big existing media giant and you depended on a lot of traffic
00:19:53.440
coming from google well that's all going away really fast because google will give you the
00:20:01.840
answer you don't have to click on the link so that's a big change in the world we'll see what that does
00:20:11.840
the wait is over the gold standard of online casinos has arrived golden nugget online casino is live
00:20:18.640
bringing vegas style excitement and a world-class gaming experience right to your fingertips whether
00:20:24.320
you're a seasoned player or just starting signing up is fast and simple and in just a few clicks you
00:20:29.920
can have access to our exclusive library of the best slots and top tier table games make the most of your
00:20:35.680
downtime with unbeatable promotions and jackpots that can turn any mundane moment into a golden
00:20:41.120
opportunity at golden nugget online casino take a spin on the slots challenge yourself at the tables or
00:20:47.120
join a live dealer game to feel the thrill of real-time action all from the comfort of your
00:20:51.920
own devices why settle for less when you can go for the gold at golden nugget online casino gambling
00:20:58.640
problem call connects ontario 1-866-531-2600 19 and over physically present in ontario eligibility
00:21:06.240
restrictions apply see golden nugget casino.com for details please play responsibly
00:21:10.960
well according to fox news uh the pentagon is claiming that the uh strikes on iran's nuclear project
00:21:22.720
set back the program two years to which i say is that a success
00:21:34.000
doesn't it seem like unless it's completely stopped
00:21:37.600
that it would be not a success because in two years they're going to know more and act faster and
00:21:47.040
be more angry than they were before i don't know two years doesn't sound like a big success unless the
00:21:54.720
real story is that they won't bother to try it because they'll get bombed again and they would get bombed
00:22:00.880
again but um how many of you think iran is just going to say ah it's not worth it we're not going to
00:22:08.960
build up our nuclear capabilities it just doesn't seem possible does it i i feel like they're going to
00:22:17.920
try as hard as they can to rebuild it they've already kicked out you know the the un watchdog group
00:22:24.960
whose job it is to make sure they don't do that they just kicked them out of the country
00:22:32.640
and the washington group said that they could probably start re-refining uranium in a matter of months
00:22:41.600
so i don't know what to believe about that but we'll see if they're afraid
00:22:47.120
uh sorry i've got something in my lungs um yesterday i recorded a podcast with jordan peterson for his
00:22:59.840
podcast a uh i didn't see him in person but we were remote and his uh camera crew and audio guys
00:23:09.280
well the ones i hired uh came to my house so we converted one of my rooms into a little studio
00:23:17.120
uh sorry i'm gonna die here um and i think you're you're gonna like it because we we were planning
00:23:28.720
to go an hour and 15 minutes and we just sailed through that we were i think we were well over two
00:23:36.000
hours and i probably could have talked to him for another two hours because everything he says is
00:23:41.840
interesting and uh we just had a great time so look for that i'll let you know when it's released
00:23:48.960
it'll be on youtube most of it and then some portion of it will be on uh beyond a subscription wall
00:24:00.320
should happen fairly quickly i'll let you know um new york post is reporting you how many times have you
00:24:06.640
heard this story but it keeps happening that uh msnbc and cnn's ratings continue to fall through the
00:24:15.120
floor at the same time that fox news ratings are sharply up so if you were gonna say to yourself hey it
00:24:25.840
must be that people don't want to watch tv news nope fox news proved that if your content is good
00:24:35.200
your your viewership goes up i don't know how much of that is is because uh greg gotfeld and
00:24:44.720
uh and jesse waters in particular um are monsters of entertainment at this point you know they're in
00:24:52.800
that domain the domain is news but they're both just monsters um yeah you know they bring a whole
00:25:01.200
different dimension because there's nobody on cnn or msnbc that is like either one of those personalities
00:25:09.280
and i think jesse learned what he learned from greg which is a great mentor to have by the way
00:25:16.640
um what greg brings to his you know two top rated shows on fox news is uh unpredictability
00:25:27.120
and he doesn't say what everybody else is saying and uh he breaks all the rules and he goes for the
00:25:35.200
greatest entertainment and you know it so if you're watching him you know he's going for the joke he's
00:25:41.040
going for the he's going for the show and watching watching fox news even you know including the other
00:25:49.360
shows it's a whole different experience so i can completely understand why they're just destroying the
00:25:58.640
anyway that story seems to repeat itself every month or two well they're down again but fox news is up again
00:26:07.440
so i told you that cnn um in my opinion and i could be wrong about this but it'd be weird um seems to be
00:26:20.160
trying harder than i've ever seen them try to talk about the news in the middle of the road instead of
00:26:29.920
being an anti-trump you know bias machine now they do have their biased people like anderson cooper
00:26:37.360
is ridiculous he doesn't look like he even belongs on the network anymore i think he's good they say
00:26:43.680
he's getting paid 18 million dollars a year i'm thinking really is that just to make the cia happy i mean
00:26:51.120
does even does even work for the network or does it work for some intelligence group that wants
00:26:57.360
to say bad things about trump well it's hard to tell if you watch him but the other the other hosts
00:27:04.240
on cnn a number of them seem to seem to have very much and very obviously looked for the middle
00:27:12.160
and we see more of that so um in the last uh few days the cnn hosts have been willing to say
00:27:22.720
it's about the best two weeks of any president's performance ever
00:27:28.560
trump's had the best summer the best six months and the best two weeks that you've ever seen just
00:27:37.280
unbelievably successful um and so cnn just frankly just admits that now they they just say it directly
00:27:46.320
it's like the best two weeks um but hakeem jeffries tried to stop the big beautiful bill with a with a
00:27:56.000
filibuster which is just one person talking for as long as i can to delay it what exactly did he think
00:28:04.640
he was going to accomplish did he think he was going to filibuster it until it couldn't get done on
00:28:11.600
july 4th or did his filibuster guarantee that it would be done and signed on july 4th which it will be
00:28:20.480
today which made it even a better show than it would have been if he'd signed it on july 3rd
00:28:27.200
if trump had signed it on the 3rd you really can't beat a trump signing of his most signature
00:28:35.840
important legislation on july 4th how do you beat that
00:28:41.840
but anyway hakeem jeffries is another theater kid and instead of offering something constructive
00:28:52.320
he decided to put on a one-man show that nobody cared about it it's almost like the poor man's cory booker
00:29:02.080
if you added cory booker and hakeem jeffries together you would have a person with normal eyes
00:29:14.400
think about that cory booker has these big saucer eyes
00:29:20.800
and hakeem has these sinister half-closed eyes so they're always half closed like like he's scheming
00:29:29.040
if the two of them got together had a child totally normalize somewhere in between
00:29:38.240
well as you know the house has passed the big beautiful bill and trump's gonna sign it today and
00:29:46.960
here is another example of what i've taught you this is a little persuasion lesson do you remember
00:29:55.440
i told you that artificial deadlines work really well even when everybody knows it's artificial
00:30:03.680
so when trump said we want to get this signed by july 4th or ideally even on july 4th
00:30:11.760
did people say oh that is a very important deadline if you miss that deadline we're all dead or something
00:30:20.000
no there's no reason it couldn't have been on july 6th
00:30:25.440
right you would tell yourself well we get exactly the same outcome two days later but there is
00:30:32.400
something magical about having an artificial deadline that's what the july 4th deadline was
00:30:43.200
if you were gonna bet would they hit the artificial deadline
00:30:48.240
it's not guaranteed because there are a lot of variables in play but it would have been a good bet
00:30:56.320
yeah the the odds of them hitting the artificial deadline are way higher than you imagine and
00:31:03.280
it's because people just organize for deadlines and they modify their behavior for the deadline even if
00:31:09.600
they know the deadline's gonna be yes that doesn't make that much difference i mean the country wouldn't
00:31:15.920
go out of business if it got uh signed on the seventh
00:31:27.040
what did trump have to do to get the bill passed well apparently he made a bunch of vague
00:31:32.800
he made a bunch of vague unspecific promises to the holdouts
00:31:41.760
and they're all reporting that that satisfied them his vague unspecific comments so one of the complaints
00:31:48.960
was it doesn't lower the budget enough or it doesn't address the deficit which you know that's debatable
00:31:57.040
depending how you calculate it but um instead of making big cuts trump said oh i'll take care of
00:32:05.040
that with my executive orders later sort of a big vague promise
00:32:09.920
and that was enough to get the um i guess the freedom caucus got on board so the freedom caucus of
00:32:20.320
course wanted you know to be more aggressive taking down the debt but here's your other persuasion lesson
00:32:28.160
um it's called the fake because now you've heard me talk about it but every time you see an example of
00:32:37.680
it in the wild um it'll reinforce it the fake because is a reason you give somebody who wants to change their
00:32:46.640
mind but they need you to give them a reason so this is somebody who really really wants to give you what
00:32:54.160
you want but you're gonna have to come up with something that sounds like a reason even if it's
00:33:01.120
sort of ridiculous and fake so do you think the freedom caucus believes that they will get you know much
00:33:10.000
lower deficit because trump will do some executive orders about something or other in the future do
00:33:17.440
you think they believe that i don't i don't think they believe that he might take a swing at it
00:33:26.080
you know because he is good at keeping his promises but i don't know if it's possible
00:33:31.120
i mean how many executive orders can you do that would reduce the deficit
00:33:37.040
so to me that qualifies as a fake because you know you know the freedom caucus wanted to keep trump
00:33:45.680
happy because the alternative is very bad for the people who didn't keep them happy you know they might
00:33:51.360
get primaried so they wanted to say yes but they were on record being you know hard-nosed about the deficit
00:34:00.000
so how do you balance that you want you really want the president to get his way
00:34:06.480
because of all the blowback if he doesn't but also you support the president
00:34:10.080
but at the same time you've gone on record saying you would never support something that
00:34:16.960
that might be negative for the budget so you have two impossibles they solve it with a fake because
00:34:25.680
oh yeah no problem now we're going to say yes and vote for it because the president said he'd take
00:34:32.480
care of it with his executive orders sometime in the future unspecified that's a fake because
00:34:41.680
used well by the way so it's not that's not a criticism it's actually just a lesson
00:34:56.800
treasury secretary scott besant says that uh markets and
00:35:02.320
anticipated this bill was going to pass i think he's right about that and markets understand
00:35:08.560
the non-inflationary growth that we're going to get here all right so scott besant who i find very
00:35:15.360
credible um says that the bill will reduce the deficit over its you know full 10 years or whatever
00:35:24.080
but it's because it will spur growth so there will be more economic activity because of the bill
00:35:32.320
and that will create more income for everybody and that causes more taxes so so that actually
00:35:40.400
if you look at what they call a static versus a dynamic analysis
00:35:47.840
static means that they just look at what the bill does and dynamic means that they look at what the bill
00:35:53.920
does immediately as in what dollar amounts are allocated but they also look at how that might affect
00:36:03.200
the overall economy and if it gooses the economy that's not included in the official numbers you
00:36:10.160
usually see so scott besant says it's gonna make the economy grow faster so my question was i asked this of
00:36:22.080
grok which part of the big beautiful bill is going to make the economy grow faster because there's a whole
00:36:29.040
bunch of stuff in there that's not directly related to making the economy grow faster i mean you could
00:36:35.440
argue it but it doesn't seem like that's designed to do that and grok said that the tax cuts
00:36:44.880
would be part of the stimulation but then i asked it how often do tax cuts increase government tax revenue
00:36:56.560
and grok said and remember i just gave you a whole conversation about how grok might be hallucinating
00:37:06.000
i'll just tell you what it said and if you want to fact check that please do but it said
00:37:12.640
president kennedy did a big tax cut in his day but that's when taxes were like 90 on rich people it
00:37:21.200
reduced it's like 70 percent or something and apparently that did increase revenue of uh you know
00:37:30.720
tax revenue coming in but one of the problems that all the presidents have if they do anything that
00:37:38.000
increases uh income for the irs congress figures out just guesses it's free money and they started
00:37:46.960
spending it so even if you did increase the money coming in for taxes congress would look at it and
00:37:55.040
they wouldn't say oh finally these tax cuts spurred the economy on and and now we're going to reduce
00:38:02.800
our deficit they would not do that instead they would say oh looks like we got another 100 billion
00:38:10.160
to spend as long as all we have to do is go back to the deficit we had and it didn't kill us last time
00:38:18.400
so you have to be careful about these stimulus packages because even if they work congress could
00:38:26.560
snatch away the benefit almost immediately and then there was the reagan tax cuts that according to
00:38:33.680
grok did not pay for themselves i know you think differently but according to grok it did not pay
00:38:39.920
for itself and there were bush tax cuts that according to grok again it might be hallucinating but grok says
00:38:48.160
did not pay for itself and it says that the trump's first term tax cuts the ones you've already
00:38:56.240
seen from his first term did not increase um or did not decrease the deficit so is scott percent right
00:39:07.920
that the big beautiful bill will uh improve the deficit well it's not just tax cuts it's also
00:39:17.600
100 expensing of assets for manufacturing that's a pretty big deal
00:39:22.640
um he talks about no tax on tips for overtime and a deduction for senior citizens for something
00:39:35.200
so how many of you believe that the trump big beautiful bill will boost the gdp so much
00:39:43.600
that it pays for itself how many of you believe that narrative
00:39:48.560
i'm very interested because i think most of you would just side with trump because you know his
00:39:58.320
credibility is kind of high at the moment because he's had such a good six months but do you believe
00:40:09.120
yeah it depends there there is a way it could work it could definitely work but maybe not just because
00:40:19.760
of the bill so trump is doing a lot more than just the big beautiful bill right um what about uh reducing
00:40:29.840
the number of migrants coming across the border so that's in the bill if he reduces the number of
00:40:36.480
migrants coming across the border wouldn't that give more jobs to citizens and wouldn't that be a
00:40:43.920
good stimulation that maybe we didn't include yet could be could be a big deal what about boosting the
00:40:51.040
military well if boosting the military spending causes another country to say we don't want to get
00:40:58.240
in a war with you because you've got a lot of toys over there well that would save us the cost of a war
00:41:05.280
which would be good for the deficit so pretty much everything the government does has either a direct
00:41:11.840
or indirect effect on the deficit so i don't know that you could ever calculate which way it's going to
00:41:20.400
go too many variables and i would compare this to climate models the reason climate models are ridiculous
00:41:30.640
is because you can tweak it to be anything you want based on the assumptions that you put into it
00:41:37.600
that would be true with this deficit reduction stuff and the big beautiful bill depending on what
00:41:44.000
assumptions you made it would either be wildly positive or wildly negative
00:41:50.240
and the assumptions are things that are unknowns
00:41:52.480
so if you believe anybody's estimate scott the sense or anybody else's i wouldn't do that
00:42:02.160
well yeah i mean somebody's going to be right and then afterwards they'll say look how right i was
00:42:07.280
but it's only because it's a binary it's either going to increase the deficit or it's not
00:42:12.320
and they're going to be people on both sides so somebody's going to say see i told you because
00:42:20.720
there's only two ways they could go it's either up or down but can you can you calculate that with
00:42:28.000
any kind of degree of certainty in advance no not really not really but it's definitely possible
00:42:36.000
and as i've said before um trump is the only president who could maybe make that work
00:42:42.960
because he's a salesman and he is selling america hard he's got the he's got the tariffs going on he's
00:42:50.320
got the trying to stay out of wars which is a real good idea um he's closing the border you know he's
00:42:59.040
doing a lot of stuff this should be good for the economy he's reducing regulations like crazy
00:43:04.240
he's promoting nuclear energy in just the right way as far as i can tell he's he's jewel baby drill
00:43:11.440
so it's just one thing after another that trump is doing that should have a uh you know good impact
00:43:19.600
on the economy so yeah there's a solid possibility not because of the big beautiful bill but because of
00:43:27.920
all of the things that trump is doing that he could goose the economy enough especially if he gets
00:43:35.760
jerome powell to reduce the interest rates by a point if all of that came together
00:43:42.640
and at least by may of next year i'm sure there will be an interest rate reduction because you'll
00:43:48.400
have a new uh new head of the fed somebody that trump puts in there uh if you put it all together
00:43:54.400
could it goose the economy enough to reduce the deficit yes yes it could the thing you have to
00:44:02.880
watch out for is what i warned you of that congress says hey look we reduced that deficit i guess that's
00:44:09.920
free money we can spend on our other stuff that's the thing you gotta watch out for all right um when i
00:44:18.800
found out my friend got a great deal on a wool coat from winners i started wondering is every
00:44:24.800
fabulous item i see from winners like that woman over there with the designer jeans are those from
00:44:30.560
winners ooh are those beautiful gold earrings did she pay full price or that leather tote or that
00:44:36.320
cashmere sweater or those knee-high boots that dress that jacket those shoes is anyone paying full
00:44:42.720
price for anything stop wondering start winning winners find fabulous for less here are some
00:44:50.000
examples of cnn trying to find the middle of the road on their their bias um so the cnn host sarah
00:45:00.480
sidner was talking to debbie wasserman prominent democrat and uh the cnn host said here are some things
00:45:08.400
that have happened gas prices down economic indicators are decent the brand new job report
00:45:15.200
shows that's much better than expected and border crash crossings are down and now trump's a mega
00:45:22.000
spending bill looks like it's going to be passed by republicans and she said how do you democrats fight
00:45:28.960
back with the wins that trump can tout now is that middle of the road it is it's it's a really
00:45:38.320
good example of them trying hard not to be just full of tds because the things that she lists as
00:45:47.040
trump's accomplishments are all real and it's almost exactly what you would have said right i mean you
00:45:55.360
would have said the same thing he did all these things gas prices are down blah blah so they're not
00:46:00.480
denying him as you might imagine before in the old days i think they would have said well you know trump
00:46:07.920
doesn't really have anything to do with the jobs so you can't give him credit but they don't do that
00:46:14.720
they just say that trump has had a whole bunch of wins which is the way you would have said it
00:46:22.000
um see and also we're surprised and in a positive way that the jobs reports was so strong
00:46:32.400
so instead of saying oh this is joe biden's job report because joe biden set us up so that the
00:46:39.840
jobs this year would be good yeah that's sort of what you expect didn't do that they just said the
00:46:46.400
jobs report was incredible under trump you know full credit they're giving him and then uh cnn's uh berman he's
00:46:57.840
one of their hosts he said predictions of job losses and inflation due to tariff policies have been wrong
00:47:04.480
that doom just hasn't happened yet he did throw in yet so it's hard to break habits so you have to
00:47:12.640
have to give you a little bit of yet but that's fair i i also say yet on on that the question of the
00:47:20.720
tariffs it's possible that the tariffs will cause a little bit of inflation but i would say the the
00:47:28.960
optimistic view is the strong one right now that it probably won't and it might be just extra revenue
00:47:37.360
for for america while inflation stays in a reasonable place good chance of that
00:47:43.680
and then trump said now that he's got the big beautiful bill passed trump was at an iowa rally
00:47:55.200
and he said that he's working on a mass amnesty for millions of illegal farm hotel and leisure workers
00:48:03.600
um does that sound like exactly what you didn't vote for mass amnesty of undocumented
00:48:13.200
workers in this country now it's not all of them it's the ones that are in the farming and hotel
00:48:20.240
leisure business but do you also say to yourself well that's mighty convenient because trump is in the
00:48:28.400
hotel leisure business and it's probably exactly what his properties want so there's a little bit of a
00:48:36.800
conflict of interest there but as i've said a million times and i've said about not just trump
00:48:45.520
when things are completely transparent they just don't bother me as much it would be the lying and the
00:48:53.280
cover-up so would bother me but if a guy who's famous for owning hotels tells you he's going to do
00:49:00.240
something that's good for the hotel industry i say to myself okay that's transparent you don't have to
00:49:08.800
wonder if he thinks it's good for his own properties that's just a yes so is the only reason that he would
00:49:17.840
consider this that if you throw in the farm workers it looks like it's not just about hotels and he can
00:49:24.880
he can act like the industry forced him to do it you know with their good arguments well
00:49:30.960
um to me the interesting part of this story is that he has he has so much credibility now with his base
00:49:42.080
because of his great six months that he can reverse himself on something that probably matters quite a
00:49:48.720
bit at least in people's minds and they would consider this as he says the the radical right
00:49:56.080
the radical right um i haven't heard him use that phrase before but he is minimizing the people who
00:50:02.720
would disagree with him on this even though it clearly is a reversal of what you expected but he's
00:50:11.120
created so much credibility that if he does a reversal of you know one item that you thought you thought
00:50:19.440
was going to go the other way my reaction was oh all right let's see how it works out um joe rogan
00:50:32.160
was saying and it's important because the only reason i'm mentioning this he's he's got some comments
00:50:37.600
about the uh deportations um the only reason i mention it is that joe rogan's platform is so big
00:50:44.480
and he's i don't call him a republican i don't think he's ever been a republican but people do
00:50:55.600
consider his opinion you know worth you know worth their time so he's just sort of a middle of the road
00:51:02.800
common sense smart guy so when he says something it's not like random people saying it he's got a big
00:51:10.400
platform and he's created a good reputation for his own opinion so i listen to him when he talks and
00:51:18.720
what he said was um about uh the mass deportations he says it's insane the targeting of migrant workers
00:51:28.000
not cartel members not gang members not drug dealers just construction workers showing up on
00:51:34.800
construction sites and raiding them now we don't have a need to have a conversation about whether
00:51:43.600
joe rogan has the best take on it um i tell you because that's probably a pretty common opinion at
00:51:51.520
this point you know maybe people don't say it out loud and especially pundits who are pro-trump like
00:51:58.000
myself we probably don't say it out loud enough but you know that's my opinion right you know when when
00:52:05.680
trump would say we're gonna start with the worst first i said to myself you know you'll never get
00:52:11.520
done with the worst but if we get rid of the worst and you close the border we will in maybe just a few
00:52:21.040
short years we'll absorb the ones who already came they're already working they're probably paying taxes
00:52:27.840
and uh yeah i would treat the people who were productive members of society differently i i i
00:52:35.920
would probably not deport them at all if i were president so i would agree with joe rogan on that
00:52:43.520
however let me just say as clearly as i can if you were in the camp of well screw that they came here
00:52:50.640
illegally you have to send the ball back and no matter how much it hurts employers no
00:52:56.720
matter how much it hurts the economy no matter how much lack of empathy it is what we voted for
00:53:04.320
you might say is send the ball back so that's all that's the only thing i'm going to accept and so
00:53:11.520
you would feel maybe backstabbed by trump because he's softening up on the farming and leisure leisure
00:53:18.240
industry but uh my own opinion probably matches joe rogan exactly so i'm just being transparent as well
00:53:29.840
i completely understand your argument if you think send them all back
00:53:34.400
because what you voted for and what is best for the country i get it i understand every bit of that
00:53:40.880
and if there's one thing i've taught you it's that people don't make decisions based on facts
00:53:47.520
this is an example of me not making a decision based on facts i do not have a factual argument
00:53:55.040
i have an emotional one my emotional argument and i would bet without knowing that joe rogan has the
00:54:02.480
same emotional argument and it goes like this i've had a lot of interaction with undocumented um south
00:54:11.520
of the border people and they're wonderful people and they're just trying to make a better life
00:54:18.720
and to me they feel like americans you know no matter how much they still have their accent
00:54:24.640
they're they're religious they're family oriented they're here for work they're they're here to stay
00:54:30.160
out of trouble they won't even drive over the speed limit because they don't want to get picked
00:54:34.800
up and deported so there's there's a bunch of people who if you were going to rank how much you
00:54:42.080
liked them you know just your empathy you would rank them pretty high even compared to the citizens
00:54:48.400
who are already here and some of them are some of them are unpleasant now that it's a completely
00:54:56.240
different argument than the ones who are criminals and you know we all agree on shipping them back
00:55:03.440
but i would say that my empathy gene makes me argue to keep the ones who are doing everything right
00:55:15.120
but if you say i don't know anybody in that community and i'm using you know my logic my facts
00:55:22.480
and saying if we send them all back there'll be americans who take that jobs it's all good for us
00:55:29.200
i get that i get that i i would love to tell you that my logic on this debate is better than your
00:55:37.520
logic it isn't i'm completely aware of the fact that whatever my logic is is really just a positive
00:55:45.600
feeling about that community in general because i spend a lot of time around them and that's it
00:55:52.240
i just have a an empathy response that i turn into an argument
00:55:59.760
all right i saw somebody ask this question you can remind me who it was
00:56:05.200
because it was a public figure um why is it the only western countries are expected to have open borders
00:56:12.000
borders have you ever noticed that like nobody is nobody's on putin for saying you know you really
00:56:18.560
need to open your border you know even as a side conversation it's just not a conversation what about
00:56:25.920
china do we ever say we're not going to do a trade deal with you unless you open your borders
00:56:32.400
it doesn't even come up is japan opening their border a lot no it's basically english-speaking
00:56:40.560
white countries that are being asked to destroy themselves with unlimited immigration and whoever
00:56:48.000
it was who said this first i wish i could credit them because it was a good observation
00:56:54.480
i don't think there's any way this is a coincidence it looks to me like countries that would like to
00:57:01.200
destroy the united states and europe and other you know white dominant countries it looks like an attempt
00:57:09.280
to simply destroy white people and white people's assets um for whatever reason you know either for
00:57:17.680
their own domination or because they're mad at us or whatever it is but to me it's just purely racist
00:57:25.360
against white western people and that would be a good enough argument to ship everybody back
00:57:33.280
so if you look at it as an attack which is sort of the view that i'm starting to come around to
00:57:43.280
i don't think it's a bunch of americans who have a different opinion about the border it feels to me
00:57:49.680
like our enemies have weaponized citizens of this country who are unwittingly working for the opposition
00:57:59.200
the opposition being let's say china or russia or somebody who doesn't like us so to me the border the
00:58:06.720
open border thing looked like an attack and sort of a modern way that countries fight instead of having
00:58:16.080
wars with bullets they influence and they do dirty tricks and they they infiltrate and they send their
00:58:23.040
spies over if you look at the number of chinese spies that are being captured in america it's an alarming
00:58:30.880
number of spies you know if i asked you what do you think is the total number of chinese spies in america
00:58:39.760
i don't know what you'd say but i almost guarantee you would guess too low i feel like they've really
00:58:47.520
flooded the country with spies and we don't you know we don't have any sense of how many there are
00:58:53.760
maybe iran is at the same time maybe some other countries um but to me the open border looked like
00:59:03.040
a military action that was disguised as something else so that's my current view
00:59:09.280
uh the blaze is uh reminding us that if trump gets away with doing a new census where he does some
00:59:18.720
executive order and doesn't doesn't count um non-citizens that uh blue states would lose a bunch
00:59:26.960
of representatives and maybe red states would gain them uh well they would gain them in comparison
00:59:33.440
um and could completely change politics in this country so just as the democrats trying to bring in a
00:59:42.240
bunch of voters um if trump you know uses the census and his executive orders to minimize their impact
00:59:53.600
he could be able to lock in a much um something like a republican majority for a long time so the stakes are
01:00:01.920
very high on that question all right uh i saw a post by fisherking64 who is a great follow on x
01:00:16.080
he said that after trump no future president will be able to pretend that he cannot close the border
01:00:23.280
it will be impossible to say that the only way to control illegal immigration is through a quote
01:00:29.840
comprehensive immigration reform that amounts that amounts to amnesty
01:00:36.720
now what do you think of that i'm going to say that the comprehensive immigration bill was a hoax
01:00:44.480
it was always a hoax and your news sources except for fox news never told you that that was fake
01:00:54.400
so on cnn and msnbc they would let pundit after pundit after freaking pundit say oh we we could close the
01:01:04.640
border but the only way to close the border is with a comprehensive immigration bill that basically would
01:01:11.920
let a lot of people in and you probably said to yourself well i know that's not true
01:01:18.560
we could definitely close the border without a comprehensive immigration bill and then trump
01:01:25.120
comes in and immediately does it he closes the border tight as a baby's ass
01:01:32.560
is that a saying no tighter than a gnats ass it's smoother than a baby's ass but tighter than a gnats
01:01:39.920
ass so he closes the border tighter than a gnats ass with no comprehensive immigration bill
01:01:49.600
can can we finally admit that the comprehensive immigration bill was nothing but a hoax
01:01:57.200
and that even the democrats knew that they were lying about the need for it they all knew they were lying
01:02:02.960
come on they all knew it so that hoax is buried might pop up again who knows well trump said at his
01:02:14.480
iowa event he said that uh the celebration for the country's 250th birthday which is next year
01:02:22.640
might include a ufc fight on the grounds of the white house lawn
01:02:27.920
oh my goodness does trump know how to put it on a show so apparently dana white would be either
01:02:39.280
tasked with doing it or he volunteered but can you even imagine a a more trump-like spectacle
01:02:48.560
than a ufc fight on the grounds of the white house for the 250th anniversary
01:02:53.840
i mean i just want to i just want to stand up and give that like a a full ovation put that in the
01:03:01.600
category of things that only trump could do only trump no one else and by the way i'm not a fan of ufc
01:03:11.280
uh you know to me it's brutal and yeah but it's like a car accident i would definitely watch it
01:03:19.840
i would watch it i mean 100 i'm gonna watch it if he does it but you know it's not my preferred sport
01:03:29.920
to watch but it is entertaining so there's that only trump could do that well the new york times
01:03:39.760
has a story in which our favorite communist uh zorian mondani uh apparently got into columbia
01:03:48.880
where he got his degree i believe uh by claiming he's black now he's not black and he's never been
01:03:57.520
black but he he was born in africa of two indian parents and he and when he was uh he was asked about
01:04:07.680
that he admits he's not black um and he would never claim he was black but not too long ago he claimed he
01:04:17.360
was black to get into columbia and apparently it worked so did he take the spot of a black applicant
01:04:26.560
i would say yes because if they let him in thinking he was black
01:04:32.240
and those were spaces that they would have given to black applicants yes yes he took he took a black
01:04:39.360
applicant's job or college education i guess first um so that might cause him some trouble we'll see
01:04:51.360
well bill ackman famous investor billionaire bill ackman who uh has been quite active and at least
01:04:59.040
posting on acts about politics um he's decided to back eric adams um and he had a very long post as
01:05:08.400
as bill ackman famously does his posts are wonderfully long but always well argued so he has the longest
01:05:17.840
posts that are also still worth reading so he's got that going for him um but here's one of the things
01:05:25.280
that he said in his analysis of eric adams versus zoren mamdani he said that quote adams not me but eric
01:05:38.080
adams is also always authentically himself his smile is real unlike the other guys and in my experience the
01:05:48.080
more authentic candidate always wins there it is so bill ackman either because he heard me or somebody
01:05:57.680
that heard me say it um is starting to focus on mamdani's fake smile i told you that as soon as you
01:06:08.000
hear the the criticism about his smile you will never forget it how many of you have looked at him since
01:06:16.480
i mentioned that his smile is creepy how many of you have seen a picture of it and said to yourself
01:06:23.040
oh man i i didn't really notice before but his smile is really creepy tell me in the comments how many
01:06:31.520
of you how many of you were were instantly flipped to see his smile as a negative when in fact it was
01:06:41.120
maybe one of his strongest political assets did i reframe that i did now i'm not saying we're here
01:06:48.800
once again uh i would not say that bill actman was influenced by something i did or something that
01:06:56.000
somebody else copied and then he saw so i i have no reason to believe that but i do believe he's very
01:07:02.720
smart and insightful and may have just come to the same conclusion that his smile could be seen as a
01:07:09.920
negative um and i would uh double down on his his statement that eric adams seems genuine
01:07:21.440
i don't know if any politician is genuine or authentic you know maybe that's never a thing
01:07:26.800
but he does seem like it you know whatever eric adams is talking even though he's you know not my
01:07:33.920
he's not my reference on every policy but whatever he's talking i say to myself there's a common sense
01:07:41.840
authentic guy who's trying to do things which obviously are good for the the city so every time
01:07:48.960
i see eric adams i have an immediate positive vibe that goes beyond the policy stuff so i can see myself
01:07:58.240
supporting him even while disagreeing with some of his policies i don't know which ones i disagree with
01:08:04.480
but i'm sure there are some because he is really charismatic and he's charismatic in that trump way where
01:08:13.760
you see him as genuine and you see his empathy and you see that he it looks to me like he's really
01:08:20.720
trying to make stuff better you know i mean it's also a job and it's politics but he really looks like
01:08:26.800
he really wants it to be better and in a common sense way that always appeals to me so we'll see all right
01:08:35.280
um apparently the saudis are not that keen to recognize israel and make a deal and join the
01:08:43.600
abraham accords because they are not really over the bombing of tehran because i guess they had you
01:08:52.320
know i always thought that saudi arabia and iran were basically just enemies so that saudi would just be
01:08:59.840
happy that iran got uh got uh bombed back a few years but no they're calling israel's war i think
01:09:09.360
they're talking about gaza um they're calling israel's war genocide and saying that they couldn't they
01:09:16.640
couldn't possibly normalize with israel without having a palestinian state and since israel in my
01:09:24.880
opinion is never ever going to agree to having a two-state solution that would sort of suggest
01:09:32.800
that uh saudi arabia is out of play now but if yeah but if you introduce trump who is the miracle
01:09:42.880
man having the year of best year ever could he flip saudi arabia all the way from we can't be
01:09:50.800
friends with israel because we accuse them of genocide all the way to hey why don't you guys be
01:09:57.360
friends and be part of this big old group the abraham accords could trump do it well probably
01:10:05.920
everything depends on what the crown prince is thinking and not this i think the comments came from
01:10:13.280
um a lower a lower a lower official in saudi arabia so i feel like probably the personal
01:10:22.560
relationship with the crown prince is going to matter the most and that the crown prince is not
01:10:28.560
predictable um he's not predictable because you expect him to do whatever whatever saudi arabia has
01:10:36.480
always done but he's just not that guy he could do something that they've never done and uh that's
01:10:45.280
sort of what makes him interesting and what makes him especially interesting if he's paired with uh trump
01:10:52.720
um i would love to know what he thinks of trump i'll bet he has a really positive opinion of trump
01:10:59.760
that maybe he doesn't say out loud so much but maybe
01:11:07.200
meanwhile uh vladimir putin continues to gain ground in ukraine and uh apparently he had a phone
01:11:15.760
call with trump in which he he showed no interest whatsoever in ending the war so he talks like he
01:11:23.680
might want to but when it comes down to the actual phone call with trump no he's happy just grinding
01:11:31.760
away on ukraine until he gets it all it looks like um but there's a side story here which is there's a
01:11:39.680
video of pudin was um he was on the panel on a stage at some big event so there were multiple people in
01:11:48.240
chairs on the stage he's he was one of them and he's told while he's on stage in the middle of an
01:11:54.720
event somebody tells him that trump is on the phone and he and instead of saying you know i'll get back
01:12:02.320
to him he explains that leaving trump waiting you know might be disrespectful and that he's going to
01:12:10.400
leave the the audience waiting instead and he gets up and he leaves and tells him he's going to take
01:12:15.200
the president's phone call because he wants to show him the respect of immediately taking the phone call
01:12:22.160
so trump and putin have an interesting respectful relationship maybe that'll turn into something
01:12:32.880
better at the moment it doesn't help us at all but maybe someday it will all right ladies and gentlemen
01:12:40.800
that is your fourth of july happy birthday um america that's your podcast for the day
01:12:52.160
like i say there may be a lot of lazy podcasters who don't do any content today but i'm not one of
01:12:58.960
those if you're going to be here i'll be here that's that's my deal or i'll try to be do the best i can
01:13:05.200
so i'm going to say some words privately to the beloved subscribers to locals the rest of you
01:13:14.480
thanks for joining have an amazing day today and enjoy all the wins and i will see you tomorrow same