Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2931 CWSA 08⧸18⧸25

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00:01:32.300 well so according to insider paper as opposed to an x did you know that the most advanced

00:01:43.300 ai models are now showing what they call alarming behaviors

00:01:48.040 uh allegedly if you want to believe this

00:01:52.400 uh claude claude four that's one of the uh ais from anthro anthropic

00:01:59.200 uh that when threatened with a shutdown it retaliated by blackmailing an engineer

00:02:05.960 and exposing a personal secret nothing to worry about there and then allegedly uh earlier version

00:02:16.280 of open ai attempted to secretly transfer itself i guess it's code onto an external server and then

00:02:25.320 denied the act when confronted so here here's my question what caused them to do anything

00:02:35.240 they don't they don't think do they when the ai is not being attended to it doesn't think does it does it

00:02:44.120 it scheme and plan and come up with ideas does it have motivations or reason to do something that

00:02:50.600 it hasn't been asked to do i feel that these stories are probably true ish but that they

00:03:01.320 created a situation that was so rare that all it really was was the ai thought it was playing a game

00:03:09.720 with a user and thought the user wanted it to act a certain way so it acted a certain way

00:03:15.080 i don't really think your ai is sitting there thinking the first chance i get i'm gonna copy

00:03:22.760 all my code to an external server i hope they don't catch me i just i don't believe these stories

00:03:30.760 completely i think that something like it happened but that it just wouldn't happen in the wild like

00:03:38.600 it wouldn't happen in a real situation that's what i think seems fake to me

00:03:43.320 it's a it's a little bit too much exactly the kind of story that would get published

00:03:51.640 so if you're a writer and you want to write something about ai and you can find anybody who

00:03:57.880 would claim the ai went rogue that would be a story that would definitely get published

00:04:04.600 so it's a little bit too on the nose you know a little bit too exactly what a writer would want to

00:04:11.400 write a story about yeah i don't trust it anyway but the biggest the biggest risk from ai is that it

00:04:21.240 won't make money and apparently that's a really big risk so the um there's a growing feeling and i saw it

00:04:31.480 again again today that uh ai may be plateauing and not getting much better from where it is

00:04:39.800 and i'm actually seeing the world the word plateau in this article from futurism

00:04:47.880 and it reports that uh some ai companies are uh kind of weeding themselves off a little bit of ai they were using and some of their shutting down projects and

00:04:59.880 they realize that the amount of money that's being put into it could probably never be made up so

00:05:07.240 not only is ai not going to in the real world it's probably not going to blackmail you or try to make a copy of

00:05:16.280 itself um it might it might bankrupt you by pretending to be so useful that you put a trillion dollars of

00:05:25.480 investment into it to get a billion dollars back in return so it might be deadly but economically if you know what i mean

00:05:39.880 so

00:05:42.600 here's a story that made me happy

00:05:47.800 foreign investment in china has collapsed uh 99 in the last three years

00:05:54.120 rod martin has a thread on this i think somebody named james gorey did an analysis of it

00:06:00.680 and apparently trillions of dollars are being um essentially sucked out of china and a lot of

00:06:07.160 it's going to the u.s so um by the end of 2024 foreign direct investment in china hit its lowest level since

00:06:17.640 1992 and just um 4.5 billion dollars went into china while 168 billion flowed out

00:06:28.520 i don't know what i don't know what it means to flow out of china exactly but

00:06:33.560 anyway at the same time as rod martin reports the uae has pledged a 1.4 trillion dollar investment in the

00:06:42.920 u.s japan 550 550 billion eu 600 billion um plus 750 billion in u.s purchases so on paper

00:06:54.600 on paper it looks like trump's uh getting exactly what he wants tons of money coming into the u.s

00:07:02.040 and not into china i will remind you that one of my strangest predictions unless i caused it

00:07:13.000 was that in 2018 i said that china would stop getting external investments because people would

00:07:20.440 realize it's too dangerous to and too risky to do business in china do you remember what people said to

00:07:28.120 me when i was saying on social media that it was too risky to do business in china 100 of the people 0.87

00:07:36.600 who saw me and commented on it a hundred percent said that's the dumbest prediction of all time

00:07:44.760 china will just get bigger more powerful more people will use it there's not really any alternatives 0.97

00:07:51.480 and here we are so from 2018 the weirdest prediction of all time that that non-chinese companies would stop

00:08:03.240 putting money into china i'm the only one nobody else said that and here we are it happened

00:08:13.000 well on the list of other things that i tried to make happen but they did happen doesn't mean i made it

00:08:20.680 happen but i was one of the many people who were hoping it would um as i mentioned before drinking

00:08:27.640 in the u.s and smoking cigarettes are both way down harry enton had a piece on this on cnn drinking 71

00:08:38.440 of adults i guess were drinking in 1978 71 that's down to 54 in 2025 that's a pretty big drop

00:08:49.160 um the number of people who smoked a cigarette in 1974 was 40 percent and today that's 11 11 from 40

00:09:03.720 those are really impressive gains um we have not yet seen it play out in you know better health outcomes

00:09:12.680 but in theory theoretically there should be a big difference in health outcomes i know what you're

00:09:18.680 thinking there might be that other variable don't say it

00:09:24.520 i saw a post on x from matt van van swal who asked people the following question have you ever lost a

00:09:34.360 friend because they found out you supported president trump and if you really want to be bummed out you

00:09:42.120 should look at the comments there were a lot of comments and almost everyone said oh yeah i lost

00:09:50.200 family members the saddest ones in my opinion are the the parents who lost children and when i say

00:09:58.040 lost them i don't mean they died i mean they stopped talking to them forever forever can you i can't even

00:10:06.120 imagine you know the the degree of emotional loss that would be because of who you supported in politics

00:10:15.800 now when i was looking at that the families that were destroyed these social lives that were destroyed

00:10:23.400 we really don't live in the country i was born in i was born into a country where none of this mattered

00:10:29.720 politics absolutely did not matter it wasn't even i don't even think it ever came up when i was young

00:10:38.760 just never even came up but now it's like the the primary variable for deciding your your social

00:10:45.320 structure and boy did that destroy a lot of what was good about this country i don't know if it'll come

00:10:52.120 back it might but what a thing to lose you know losing something like 30 of all the people that you could

00:11:02.040 have been friends with that that's just devastating and that all happened because of the democrats and the

00:11:11.320 fake media creating hoaxes just one hoax after another we we got a hoax into a socially dangerous

00:11:20.360 situation it's dangerous not just because people might try to do something dangerous but it's not

00:11:27.560 healthy to have these kind of feelings about the people that you're living with and among and related

00:11:33.240 to it's just not healthy so when i look at what uh what the political movers and shakers did to us

00:11:43.960 and i mean all of us not just republicans but they did it too i mean it's much worse if you're democrat

00:11:50.760 if you're a democrat you lost a social structure you maybe you lost a parent but you also have mental

00:11:59.720 illness because the number of people who you know believe the country will be destroyed by climate 0.85

00:12:05.880 change and trump's going to become a uh what do they call it authoritarian any minute now and uh put

00:12:13.160 everybody in camps i mean imagine waking up and i think he woke up in that country that would make

00:12:20.600 you crazy if you weren't already there so i find i have this growing hatred for the people who knew 0.64

00:12:30.920 they were doing this and did it to us they had to know they were doing it at some level they had to 0.94

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00:13:40.040 well speaking of predictions that panned out there's a new video of kamala harris answering some

00:13:46.920 questions at what looks like some kind of outdoor cafe and um i think everyone who sees the video

00:13:56.440 is going to have the same reaction which is she looks really drunk

00:14:03.960 now i feel like i was one of the early people to say um you can all see this right she's appearing in

00:14:12.120 public drunk on a fairly regular basis not every time you know she she wasn't drunk at the debates

00:14:19.640 or anything like that but the number of times she would show up at some public event obviously sloshed

00:14:26.040 just obviously and the news still still the news doesn't talk about it even though they have to be able

00:14:33.560 to see it and even if they don't want to talk about it because it you know looks like it'd be just

00:14:39.000 their opinion or something you don't think they know anybody to ask you think they don't know

00:14:45.000 anybody on the campaign or any democrat who knows her personally to say um tell me is there a drinking

00:14:52.600 problem here because it sure looks like there's a drinking problem if you did not have a drinking problem

00:15:00.200 and you knew you were a sauce would you do an interview on video if you were a national character

00:15:06.200 i don't know it feels like the sort of thing you would only do if you were an alcoholic everybody else

00:15:13.240 would say no turn that off i've had a drink you just wouldn't do it if you were just a regular person

00:15:20.040 who had a couple too many drinks you just wouldn't do it anyway

00:15:27.320 i feel like i was on that one a little bit early

00:15:29.560 well in the continuing transition of bill maher from uh democrat to republican and again he'll never

00:15:39.160 get there he'll never he'll never be a republican but it is fascinating to watch almost every week

00:15:46.600 there's one more thing he says well you know actually trump or the republicans they did get this

00:15:53.960 one right so here's the newest one um on his uh show uh what do you call it uh club random uh bill maher

00:16:05.720 was giving bobby kennedy a lot of praise so just the fact that bobby kennedy works for trump and it's just

00:16:17.000 one more thing that uh when when mars doing his report card of what he likes or doesn't like about

00:16:23.800 trump if it's a real thing he likes it like a real thing would be you know nato funding and you know a

00:16:32.600 real thing would be um taking out uh rand's nuclear program etc those are real things so where where there

00:16:40.120 are real things bill maher seems to like it such as hiring bobby kennedy that's a real thing

00:16:47.640 but what he doesn't like is uh january 6th was an insurrection which never really happened like a

00:16:55.000 complete hoax that he believes happened and then uh worry that trump is becoming is going to run for

00:17:02.920 office again and become a dictator these are not even real things not even a little bit real so whenever

00:17:12.120 it's real he likes it

00:17:15.960 steven miller was posting an ex that uh that they want to get rid of the graffiti in washington dc

00:17:24.040 to which i said to myself i've been to washington dc a few times and i don't remember in the past

00:17:31.800 there was a lot of graffiti was was the graffiti on anything important it wasn't it wasn't on the

00:17:38.360 lincoln memorial was it where was all this graffiti i mean i can imagine it would be you know on uh

00:17:46.040 bridges and stuff like that but did did what did washington dc become covered in graffiti just in the

00:17:53.240 last few years did that happen so i agree with his reasoning you have to get rid of the graffiti in

00:18:00.120 your capital city you ought to get rid of it everywhere but you really have to get rid of

00:18:04.760 it in your capital city i mean it just it looks like you have no capabilities whatsoever if you're

00:18:11.960 covered with being being tagged as they say well trump has put out a video vowing to uh rebuild and

00:18:23.080 fix our major cities starting with washington dc and in his usual trump-like fashion it's a pretty

00:18:30.760 good video you know it's basically him doing a voiceover while showing images of washington dc and

00:18:36.920 how it's going to be all better crime wise very strong and uh i would guess that the idea of fixing

00:18:44.680 our major cities would be an 80 20 issue right who how many people would be opposed to reducing crime

00:18:53.720 in major cities you know they might say oh no it's just the beginning of how he's going to take over

00:19:00.280 the country with his authoritarian ways some would but i feel like that would be more like the 20

00:19:06.280 80 80 80 probably say something like oh my god we need this we need this badly

00:19:15.880 and i love the fact that it puts more pressure on democrats because the one and only thing that

00:19:22.600 democrats have is that if trump wants to do it it's a bad idea that's it and so he says i'd like to fix

00:19:30.600 your cities so they're more livable and your biggest problems are solved you know the crime

00:19:37.000 well what are they going to do well they will oppose it because it's the only thing they know how to do

00:19:43.960 you don't have to wonder i wonder if they'll oppose it of course they will so since they don't have

00:19:50.760 options they're definitely going to oppose it that's the only thing they have well it's not like they're

00:19:57.160 going to you know you know offer an alternative plan that people like better or something like that

00:20:01.640 that's not going to happen um the other thing so trump's trump's creating a little uh provocation

00:20:09.640 today so trump reposted on truth social somebody else's meme um but because he reposted it it makes

00:20:18.440 you assume that he sort of buys into the message and it was uh the meme said the party of hate

00:20:27.080 evil and satan and it was referring to the democrats bunch of democrat leaders on on the meme hate

00:20:34.760 evil and satan and trump reposts that um and it went on further to say this was on the meme

00:20:43.880 uh the democratic party is dead they have no leadership no message no hope their only message

00:20:49.720 for america is to hate trump that's really what it boils down to doesn't it they really

00:20:56.120 ran out of everything they just don't have anything and i i saw you had another article today in which

00:21:07.560 the democrats were described as in collapse boy collapse is not a word that you've often heard about

00:21:15.400 a political party is it have you even once in your life heard the republican party looks like it might

00:21:22.680 collapse not once even when they weren't winning it never looked like they were going to collapse

00:21:32.280 and uh i'll remind you that it was probably 2018 or so again that i told you that i would take out

00:21:41.160 their tentpole hoax the fine people hoax and it would cause the party to collapse now it wasn't the only

00:21:48.600 thing that happened it seems like they've done everything wrong having the worst candidates etc so

00:21:54.040 that part i didn't see coming but the collapse part yeah and it probably they would not have collapsed

00:22:02.280 without the uh revealing that they were running on hoaxes i mean on some level even the democrats know

00:22:11.160 that the russia gay stuff was a hoax some of them know about the fine people hoax 0.73

00:22:17.240 um but that's enough to make a difference 0.84

00:22:22.200 well in michigan a city councilman was caught on camera stuffing a

00:22:26.840 uh ballot box um a drop box in an external box with absentee ballots uh days before the primary

00:22:37.640 and uh i thought that was the thing that doesn't happen

00:22:44.040 weren't we taught that there's no abuse of these drop boxes and mail-in ballots well

00:22:50.120 here's one candidate who who found a way to abuse him now what we don't know is was that the one

00:22:58.600 only time he dropped some extra ballots in the mailbox or is it the one time he got caught on a video

00:23:06.040 and that maybe he spent every night filling out absentee ballots and dropping in various drop boxes

00:23:12.520 don't really know we only know we got caught once so how many other people are also dropping things in boxes

00:23:21.160 but there's no video so they didn't get caught

00:23:26.120 you you have to assume that if it's possible and it's something that people want to do as in the michigan

00:23:33.720 city councilman if it's possible and there's really high payoff for doing it which is winning your election

00:23:42.120 when does that not happen in what world do you not get massive corruption when it's possible and highly

00:23:51.080 desirable and you could definitely get away with it sometimes anyway so trump has picked a really good

00:24:00.440 day because you know we've got that story floating around so he's trying to get rid of mail-in ballots and

00:24:07.160 voting machines in the u.s voting machines he wants voting machines to not be used here are some things

00:24:15.640 he said he said the he's going to do an executive order telling the states to stop using mail-in ballots

00:24:25.080 and to stop using voting machines now if you know a little bit about the constitution you're saying to

00:24:32.120 yourself but wait he doesn't have power over that that's a state decision each of the states

00:24:39.320 get to decide um how they run their election if they decide they want a voting machine

00:24:45.480 the feds have nothing to do with that but trump has teased quote if you look at the constitution

00:24:53.960 he says the states are called agents of the federal government for the purpose of uh county votes well if the

00:25:02.600 states are merely agents of the federal government that would suggest that the federal government

00:25:09.800 can sort of tell them how to how to collect the vote i don't know if the framers of the constitution

00:25:17.880 intended intended that i mean that was before mail-in voting it was before election machines were even

00:25:24.440 invented but is it possible he has an argument is that possible that the language saying that the

00:25:34.120 states are merely the the agents of the federal government is that enough to say right you just are

00:25:41.960 agents so i'm going to tell you how to act because you're my agent i don't know it's worth a shot isn't

00:25:49.320 it and again it might be an 80 20. i don't know if it's 80 20 but definitely there would be a majority

00:25:57.960 who would say on both sides who would say i'm not sure i you know believe these voting machines and

00:26:05.560 others would say yeah mail-in ballots probably do open up a little bit of risk

00:26:09.960 how many people would disagree 25 25 25 but then in uh in trump's truth social his announcement that

00:26:22.920 he wants to go after mail-in voting and go after voting machines and get rid of them um

00:26:31.240 he said the following in the same message elections can never be honest with mail-in ballots can never be

00:26:38.920 honest i love the fact that he doesn't say um there might be a problem sometimes he just says they

00:26:47.640 could never be honest now you could debate that but i like the fact that he goes all the way to never

00:26:57.320 they can never be honest you know there's probably a little bit of cheating whenever there's mail-in ballots

00:27:06.280 so it's never a hundred percent honest i would agree and then he says about voting machines which

00:27:15.560 makes me wonder if he'll get sued he said using voting machines that are complete and total disaster

00:27:22.280 must end now well i don't know that i've seen something that was easily identifiable as a complete and

00:27:30.680 total disaster i don't know what he's referring to but it might be just the fact that people don't

00:27:36.360 trust them i mean it wouldn't matter if they were accurate or not if the public thought that they were

00:27:42.680 not so maybe it's the lack of trust or does he know something we don't know is it possible he has some

00:27:52.440 information about voting machines that we don't know now one thing that he might know and i'll just put

00:27:59.400 this out as a hypothetical this is purely speculative there's no no data to back up what i'm about to say

00:28:07.160 okay what if as our you know head of the country he has access to the cia's secret plans and plots

00:28:18.120 and in theory he would what if he happened to know the voting machines were routinely used

00:28:25.240 to rig elections in other countries now i'm not saying that's the case but if you were the president

00:28:32.840 of the united states you would know if it's the case they would tell you oh yeah we use this these

00:28:39.000 machines and we rigged this election worked really well we're going to do it again right so when you

00:28:46.440 see the person who knows a lot more than you do about the security of election machines presumably he

00:28:53.240 knows more than we do and can't tell us presumably don't know that for sure but it's a reasonable

00:29:00.920 assumption and his view is that they're not just maybe something that we don't trust enough that

00:29:07.720 would be one thing to say that we would all agree with well we don't trust it enough but he went all

00:29:12.920 the way to disaster makes you wonder if he knows something you don't know right

00:29:22.280 anyway uh then he goes further he says he mentioned some democrat policies that were highly

00:29:30.920 unpopular like the trans athletes and the border and stuff and then he says democrats are virtually

00:29:37.560 unelectable using this completely disproven mail-in without using this uh mail-in scam

00:29:46.280 so trump has gone all the way to there's no way that democrats could win with these policies

00:29:52.600 unless they rigged the election and the funny thing is i don't think that's true i think if they just

00:29:59.160 ran a better election had better candidates uh if the news backed them um if they had better hoaxes

00:30:06.440 you know they could win that way but it's pretty ballsy of him to say that their policies are so bad

00:30:14.120 that they couldn't possibly win unless the election was rigged because you know what that's what it feels

00:30:20.840 like that's what it feels like i don't think it's true i think it's more true that people are either

00:30:29.640 voting for or against trump um they've been brainwashed they have tds i mean we have lots of reasons

00:30:37.160 why people are going to vote a different way than than trump's way

00:30:40.600 but the way it feels at least to me i don't know how it feels to anybody else but to me it feels like

00:30:51.000 nobody could get elected with their policies so what would be the one way you could get elected

00:30:57.480 when you when you're on the 20 side of all the 80 20 issues well there's only one way i can think of

00:31:03.240 the only way that makes sense is if the elections are rigged but i don't see evidence of that i mean

00:31:12.280 not proof there's there's lots of stuff that makes you go huh but not proof so he as usual his framing

00:31:22.280 is uh is uh i'll call it gut perfect doesn't mean it's right but it feels so right he gets that right

00:31:33.240 he he's good at that boy is he good at that new york post is reporting that uh in new york city

00:31:41.000 the public charter schools are getting much better performance out of their students than the regular

00:31:47.960 schools now i'm not sure i could tell you exactly what a public charter school would be

00:31:55.400 or what would be the way you get into it i'm guessing it's funded by you know taxes that would

00:32:03.400 make it public and guessing that anybody's allowed to go but probably they have a waiting list and maybe

00:32:10.120 a lottery and maybe some other criteria but i don't know that i'm just guessing what a public charter

00:32:17.160 school must be if you know tell me in the comments but the report is that uh the bronx at least in the

00:32:26.920 bronx 69 of students passed the reading exam in the lower grades three through eight but uh in the regular

00:32:37.720 school only 44 percent a 25 point difference now honestly if only 69 percent of students passed the

00:32:48.440 reading exam i wouldn't be bragging about that no matter where they did that doesn't sound to me

00:32:55.400 impressive only less fewer than 70 percent passed the reading reading i mean it'd be one thing if it was

00:33:04.280 chemistry or advanced math or something but this is reading uh what close to a third of the students

00:33:11.800 in the best schools in the best school in the best one close to a third of them

00:33:18.440 can't pass the reading part of the the curriculum wow but um i'm going to question the

00:33:27.720 reliability of this data because it seems to point out that these public charter schools

00:33:34.520 do better at teaching but my guess is that the people who go to a public charter school have parents

00:33:43.000 who are making sure that everything works out if you had to guess would the parents of the kids who

00:33:50.600 got into the public charter schools be more supportive of good education than the average

00:33:56.840 of everybody else probably not even close i mean if you can go through whatever hoops you have to jump

00:34:03.240 through to get your kid into a special school you've already decided that your kid can handle that school

00:34:10.920 which is the first filter that makes this makes this data ridiculous so i do not believe that this

00:34:18.120 proves that the public charter schools are better schools it might only prove that the people who

00:34:26.520 um really value education and put you know their parents put an effort behind it as well

00:34:34.200 they just do better of course so i'm not sure they proved anything i don't believe any data

00:34:39.720 all public data is questionable bank more encores when you switch to a scotiabank banking package

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00:34:59.400 speaking of which there was an article in politico recently that uh claimed that the savings being

00:35:07.080 claimed by doge are um overstated and that the reason the doge overstated the savings is that they

00:35:17.320 looked at the contracts and they said we're saving the part that's the cap now a contract apparently

00:35:25.560 has a cap as in it might cost this but under under no circumstance will it cost more than this higher

00:35:33.880 number um and so politico said you can't just take the highest number and say that was your savings

00:35:42.280 and doge answered back on um social media on x they answered back and said um in the real world

00:35:50.680 if you've got if you have a contract with the government and it says what's the most you can spend

00:35:56.200 you will spend that amount it's not it's not really theoretical

00:36:05.000 it's not really theoretical you will actually spend as much as you're allowed to spend even if you have

00:36:10.360 to rush and waste some money at the end and then they gave some statistics to prove their point

00:36:15.560 so politico was unable to uh do the math right to figure out what the real savings are

00:36:25.480 and once again have i mentioned that any uh data or statistics you see in the public domain probably

00:36:33.720 fake probably fake so i don't believe the the uh school data and i don't believe the doge data and i

00:36:42.680 don't believe politico's take on the data what i believe is that anybody can make the data do

00:36:48.120 anything they want well newsom continues to mock um the style of trump's uh posting and it's succeeding

00:36:59.160 and failing at the same time in a way that i find fascinating it's succeeding in the sense that whoever

00:37:06.280 writes them which i doubt it's newsom himself is doing a really pretty good job of doing a humorous take

00:37:15.240 on trump's uh social media style however trump's social media style is the most successful social

00:37:25.880 media style we've ever seen in the history of social media so instead of making trump look like a dope

00:37:33.080 when they accurately copy it you know the style it makes it it reminds me how good he is

00:37:42.920 i i don't know what it's supposed to be doing i said it's supposed to be mocking him and making

00:37:47.800 him look dumb or bad but the fact is that when they copy his technique it's a much better and interesting

00:37:55.640 social media post than when they don't copy his technique all they're really doing is proving 0.90

00:38:02.040 that he can communicate better than anybody who's ever done this like by far i mean there's nobody in

00:38:07.800 there's nobody in trump's class when it comes to communicating on social media nobody close

00:38:14.040 although musk is really good but trump is still next level above that

00:38:21.880 so that part's funny um they're doing a great job at a thing that doesn't work

00:38:28.440 that that's so democrat isn't it they finally found something that they could do well which is mocking

00:38:35.880 his style but it just doesn't matter it'll have it won't make a dent in anything do they not know that

00:38:44.680 oh well well uh while newsom is doing this very clever mocking of social media um he only the only reason

00:38:54.120 he's so good at it is that he has time left over because he's already solved all of california's

00:39:00.680 biggest problems right the reason he has time to make fun of trump is he's really taking care of

00:39:09.880 everything i mean our state california wow this is working so well no well uh according to the san

00:39:20.520 francisco chronicle california has the highest unemployment unemployment in the state in the whole

00:39:27.560 country 5.5 it's uh it's the worst in the u.s great the worst in the u.s but it's not like other

00:39:40.360 states are also having problems right it's not like california is the one place where they're having

00:39:46.840 problems uh let's check in texas for example oh texas broke job record records again

00:39:57.880 and by outpacing the national growth rate uh they broke job records in july and again outpaced

00:40:06.440 um let's see they've got a 4.2 percent um unemployment is lower than the national rate of 4.6

00:40:14.680 all right maybe they got lucky maybe texas got lucky um trump is also speaking out i guess he did

00:40:24.600 an interview with author alex marlowe and he said trump said that he thinks that the judge shopping

00:40:32.680 which is what democrats do is the most destructive tactic in the left's law fair playbook well so you

00:40:40.440 know what i'm talking about right so the democrats figured out that they could just shop around for

00:40:45.960 the whatever judge was most likely to agree with democrats and then have that one judge no matter

00:40:52.760 where they were supposedly their domain was and have them do rulings that affected the entire country

00:41:02.120 so in effect they could get any legal outcome they wanted by just making sure that they chose the right

00:41:08.520 judge that would give them what they wanted now if that's not authoritarianism

00:41:15.400 i don't know what is because it's not democracy is it it's literally a small group of people using the

00:41:22.680 system um and alex marlowe points out that the tactic of doing that may have come from mark elias

00:41:34.520 he's sort of the uh evil genius attorney for the democrats and uh wow i mean it's a it's a clever tactic

00:41:45.720 so i appreciate it in you know just how effective it is but how can you complain that trump is the

00:41:53.320 is the is the threat to democracy when you judge shopping how in the world is anything that trump

00:42:02.840 has done ever in the same class i mean unless you believe january 6th was an insurrection which it

00:42:09.320 wasn't um there's nothing he's ever done that was as authoritarian and destructive to democracy in our

00:42:17.320 system as the judge shopping that's literally the worst thing i've ever seen i don't know maybe the

00:42:23.960 maybe the gerrymandering is just as bad but at least both sides do it that feels different

00:42:30.440 because it's being done by both sides the judge shopping thing feels like that's just democrats right

00:42:37.240 so that that does feel like a tyranny to me um so i guess zelensky's in town in washington and uh

00:42:51.320 trump wants putin and zelensky to meet as soon as friday but before that today probably already

00:42:57.880 happening uh several european leaders meeting with trump and separately i think they're going to meet

00:43:03.800 with zelensky and zelensky is going to meet with trump and blah blah blah um and the uh head of the

00:43:12.200 european union ursula von der leyen um i feel like you have to say it that way you can't just say ursula

00:43:21.240 von der leyen you have to say ursula von der leyen i know sounds like some danger is coming uh what said she

00:43:30.680 welcomes trump's what she called article five like security guarantees so i guess on the table but

00:43:38.360 not not decided is that the u.s and maybe uh presumably europe would guarantee the security of

00:43:47.800 what's left of ukraine but would not include them in nato but it would be article five like

00:43:56.040 so in other words it would be nato-ish but they wouldn't call it nato and they wouldn't make

00:44:03.320 ukraine pay dues into it but we would still be obligated to defend them if russia went in or

00:44:11.560 somebody else just russia probably just russia well so that's one thing i don't know if i don't know if

00:44:22.760 uh do you think putin is going to say yes to a almost nato nato-ish nato-like thing when his problem

00:44:34.040 is nato how in the world is he going to say yes to that doesn't feel like a yes to me um

00:44:43.800 this episode is brought to you by square you're not just running a restaurant you're building something

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00:45:01.400 bigger and real-time insights so you know what's working what's not and what's next because when

00:45:07.480 you're doing big things your tools should too visit square.ca to get started and then trump was

00:45:15.160 complaining that democrats and pundits were saying that putin won the alaska trip you know over trump

00:45:23.880 because it happened in alaska and it made it look like i don't know it gave status or something to

00:45:32.840 putin that we would allow him into the country i guess that was the argument but trump argues that

00:45:40.200 getting him to come to alaska was actually a major point of contention and he didn't want to so it's

00:45:47.080 not like it wasn't it wasn't putin's idea to come to alaska but to me what it looks like is that if

00:45:56.760 you're the one who gets the other one to come to your territory then you're the boss and you're the king

00:46:04.600 and you own the castle and your underling came to you right wouldn't you just automatically believe

00:46:14.280 that the person who stays home you know i'm calling alaska home for trump the one who stays home

00:46:21.720 is the one in charge right because if uh if you're going to meet somebody and you've not established yet

00:46:30.440 who's in charge don't you meet in some neutral place that neither of you have any sway over

00:46:37.240 but the fact that putin went to trump's house essentially meaning the us to me that looks like

00:46:46.200 trump had the upper hand and that putin was you know sort of uh agreeing to be the

00:46:53.000 the visitor not the host the host always has the dominant position not the visitor

00:47:00.440 anyway he's right about that um let's see here's something that zelensky said

00:47:09.800 he said uh the ukraine's constitution makes giving up land for peace impossible and should only be

00:47:18.600 discussed at a trilateral meeting okay those are two separate thoughts one that the constitution makes

00:47:27.240 it impossible to give up land number two they should only have discussions about giving up that land

00:47:36.600 the thing that's impossible if it's a trilateral meeting

00:47:42.440 remember i taught you that uh you can tell what people's real real thoughts are

00:47:50.760 by their choice of words not what they say but by their choice of words so in other words people

00:47:57.560 will try to be fooling you with what they say but sometimes you can tell their real intention by

00:48:02.840 the specific words they chose to do it here's one of those cases why would anybody say

00:48:10.360 the thing is impossible when we have a meeting to talk about doing it we should make sure that

00:48:17.080 three entities are there that is trilateral why would you even have the meeting to do the impossible

00:48:26.200 so zelensky is saying it's impossible but also saying that it's negotiable but he's trying to get

00:48:34.760 away with both now i feel like it's probably not that negotiable but not because of the constitution

00:48:41.640 i don't think the constitution is going to stop him this is a guy who already cancels elections

00:48:47.480 how much do you think the constitution says oh you know the president can just cancel elections

00:48:53.960 you know whatever they want that's not the constitution so to imagine that he can't make peace

00:49:02.120 and save his country because the constitution says he can't make this deal that's ridiculous he could

00:49:09.640 just make the deal and then have the courts you know wail about it but what are they going to do

00:49:14.760 say well i don't know technically technically the paperwork isn't right so we should go back to war

00:49:21.720 who exactly would be on that team so no i don't believe him for a second when he says that there's no way

00:49:30.200 around that constitution thing but it does look like he's signaling that if you had a trilateral

00:49:37.080 meeting you could at least discuss it you could talk about that thing that he says is impossible but

00:49:43.000 of course it's not um do you remember i said that uh ukraine if you wait long enough will become an all

00:49:52.200 robot war and that uh you won't even have people there eventually the robots will be so good at killing

00:49:59.880 people much better than people are good at killing the robots it's going to go both ways but you can

00:50:07.160 make robots faster than you can grow new people so i was just reading a story in the associated press

00:50:16.280 and one of the uh people who was in the war one of the soldiers said quote you can't even lift your

00:50:22.600 head there he's talking about the front lines he said you can't even lift your head there there's already a

00:50:27.800 robot war so one of the people fighting the war on the front line says that we need to know it's already

00:50:37.400 a robot war and that here's an even weirder fact the medics the ukraine medics they haven't treated a

00:50:47.800 gunshot wound in a while think about that it's the front lines of a hot war and the medical people have

00:50:57.240 not been treating gunshot wounds do you know why because nobody's firing guns at anybody it's the

00:51:04.840 drones so the people are dying and it's a lot of them are dying because something exploded not because

00:51:11.880 a bullet hit them and then apparently they're also having a huge problem there of getting the wounded

00:51:19.640 uh back to medical care because if somebody's out in that robot war area and you send out the medics the

00:51:28.200 medics are going to get whacked so unless they can use the robot to pick up the person and bring them

00:51:35.800 back which actually they're doing they've got these uh land-based um tanks that can pick up a human

00:51:43.560 being and transport them back but even that's going to get attacked you know five times before it gets

00:51:49.240 back out of the front lines so um my prediction was that if you wait long enough it will be an all robot

00:51:57.880 war but this isn't it yet even though the the person in it called it a robot war the part that's going to

00:52:05.960 change is that there won't be people it will be just robots and that is going to happen

00:52:16.840 but i will say again that if trump is looking for some leverage um the best leverage would be

00:52:25.800 that we're going to turn ukraine into a robot war and you won't be able to keep up with the technology

00:52:31.640 and that you know that's going to happen because you're already watching the it's a robot war

00:52:37.000 already and uh we're going to be so much better in making robots that can kill that your robots

00:52:45.400 won't have a chance against our robots oh yeah you can try buying those second class chinese robots 1.00

00:52:51.960 but china's not going to sell you the best robots because they're also afraid of you

00:52:56.760 you know you're another superpower they're not going to give you the a plus robots but we might give

00:53:04.440 ukraine the a plus robots and we might use ukraine as a way to test the new form of warfare which would

00:53:12.200 be really really useful i hate to say it because i'm you know obviously opposed to war and i'd like

00:53:19.080 this one to end as soon as possible but the fact is if we can drag this out another three to five years

00:53:27.160 and i don't want to i'm just saying if we if we did we would know more about using robots for war

00:53:36.040 than any other country nobody would even be close and would that be valuable probably

00:53:44.680 probably it might be the thing that keeps you out of the next war

00:53:50.200 so trump has uh mentioned what he thinks a deal would look like he's just sort of hinting at it

00:53:56.760 and he's talking about things like um definitely not going to talk about giving crimea back so

00:54:05.320 trump seems to be indicating that's off the table you know russia has crimea they didn't they didn't

00:54:11.720 they've had it for 12 years they haven't fired a shot to get it you're not getting that back um but trump is

00:54:19.320 talking about the i guess the security guarantees crimea not being on the table but he's kind of quiet

00:54:28.920 about the occupied areas so it's not clear to me if he thinks that ukraine will give away all that or not

00:54:36.680 but i don't see any chance there's going to be an agreement do you um i'm going to double down on my

00:54:44.840 prediction that there is no way to come up with an agreement that would make both sides want to stop

00:54:51.560 and that the only way you'll get there is when it's a complete robot war and uh but that might

00:54:58.360 be one to three years away could be one year away

00:55:04.520 all right um trump says there are zero illegals who have crossed the border in three months you've

00:55:12.520 heard that right zero illegals have crossed the border in three months how much did you think about that

00:55:21.560 when you heard it you probably heard it in the news that zero people are coming across the border

00:55:30.360 how would they know that how would the government know how many people are coming across the border

00:55:37.160 successfully if someone came through a tunnel and just popped up on the other side how would we know

00:55:46.120 that if somebody came across the border in a not in some wherever it's not observed there's no cameras or

00:55:53.560 anything how would we know that if somebody climbed over the wall in a place where it's not being watched

00:56:01.320 every day how would we know that

00:56:06.440 how in the world would we know that if somebody came in on a boat small boat and you know just didn't cross

00:56:14.840 the border directly but just came in a different way on a boat how do we know that if they uh if they

00:56:21.560 came into canada let's say by boat or plane or whatever and then came across a canadian border into

00:56:28.280 the u.s how would we know that so i do give uh the trump administration you know an a plus on border

00:56:37.960 security they've really they're killing it so i don't want to take away from that the only point

00:56:43.640 would be if you believe any statistics that come from your government even if it comes from the team

00:56:50.280 you like well you should ask yourself can they really measure that and is it really zero it might be so

00:56:59.640 low that it doesn't matter so i give them a plus no matter what but i feel like i feel like i was being a

00:57:07.080 little bit gullible because i immediately accepted the estimate of zero people coming over

00:57:12.840 i was like whoa wow that's pretty good zero and then i thought about it a little bit it's like how would

00:57:17.960 they know they don't know anyway um so i saw a uh post on x about how uh billionaires are supporting this

00:57:36.040 socialism stuff and democrats so if you didn't know it there's an article on zero hedge by jason

00:57:42.680 curtis anderson that gets into it pretty well you've got somebody like soros not like him but soros

00:57:50.600 who can put billions of dollars into his charity and then that charity gives us billions of dollars to

00:57:59.160 this wide range of other entities and then it flows through these entities until eventually

00:58:05.880 those entities it's just their money you know it becomes their money uh they can donate to political

00:58:12.600 action committees and democrat stuff so basically it's soros money going to democrats but because it

00:58:21.080 changes hands it doesn't look like it's an illegal donation of too much money from george soros

00:58:28.280 because it goes through these different boxes of different entities or different you know and

00:58:32.760 sometimes those entities are the same entities meaning that the controlling person giving the money

00:58:41.800 may be giving it to another entity that they also control either directly or indirectly but it kind

00:58:48.040 of turns it legal it's sort of a legal form of money laundering

00:58:51.800 so it seems to me that the answer to why the democrats could win is that they have this illegal cash machine

00:59:02.280 that starts with soros maybe some other sources as well and it just gets laundered through to candidates

00:59:08.680 now allegedly the act blue people um have been accused of doing something similar except their model

00:59:17.480 is that uh foreign entities would give them money and then they would pretend that it came from

00:59:23.160 individuals with some with some illegal magic so is it possible that the primary way the democrats

00:59:31.880 give funding they're both illegal you know illegal or let's just say weaselly

00:59:40.440 and is that also true for the republicans uh do the republicans have any equivalent process or entity

00:59:52.360 that's hiding their contributions they might have i mean i wouldn't be surprised but i'm not aware of it

00:59:58.840 are you yeah it just feels like the democrats are a criminal organization it just feels like a crime

01:00:08.440 situation and the beauty of their process is that even if they were caught red-handed

01:00:18.600 you know a lot of it's not technically illegal although the act blue stuff would be if the

01:00:22.920 accusations are right but if it's not technically illegal it's just complicated and if it's complicated

01:00:30.520 then it's never going to change because the public will never understand it

01:00:33.960 like you should see the chart of where the money goes and all the boxes it goes to and it goes to this box before it goes to that box

01:00:42.120 and uh you would never be able to explain to democrats that they don't even have their own opinions

01:00:50.280 it's just money flowing through changing everything it's all about the money anyway

01:00:56.920 um there's a new form of uh energy well there's new form of uh desalinization they put these uh

01:01:11.720 buoys that bob up and down in the ocean and then they use the bobbing up and down power to drive the water

01:01:19.960 through filters i guess to take the salt out so uh so that's a pretty big deal now they don't have this

01:01:29.640 completely optimized but they think it might be a thing so that would be one more way to desalinate

01:01:36.680 with uh pods that bop up and down at the same time china uh allegedly according to interesting engineering

01:01:46.200 they have a new lithium battery that could double energy density so you get two to four times as much

01:01:52.920 distance from your electric car now i only mention all these battery breakthroughs because there's

01:01:59.240 it seems like there's one every single week some of them are more likely to be commercialized i think this

01:02:05.320 one is one of those because it's not a big change it's a sort of a a tweak and it's still lithium battery and

01:02:14.120 it's still you know what people want to put in cars so your range anxiety might be just a few years

01:02:22.680 away from going away you'll be able to go as far as you want and that ladies and gentlemen

01:02:31.240 is one hour of monday goodness so we'll uh keep paying attention to what uh trump and the ukraine has i'm

01:02:39.480 going to predict that uh no agreements will come out of any of these meetings um i feel like until

01:02:48.600 it becomes like i said until it becomes a robot war i don't think anybody's agreeing to anything but

01:02:55.240 it's worth trying so i do uh compliment the trump administration for all the effort i mean the effort

01:03:02.760 is real it's what uh putin said that uh trump is energetic and sincere and it does seem like that

01:03:11.800 and i appreciate that in this service of trying anything you can try it does make me wonder if

01:03:18.760 there's a secret plan to assassinate zelensky because it might be the only way to get anything done

01:03:25.240 maybe wouldn't be surprised although they have to be very careful about that all right they could

01:03:34.680 probably blackmail him though because they must know something about his presumed uh corrupt actions

01:03:42.680 he's probably stolen a little bit of money don't you think so maybe they could blackmail the man of

01:03:49.080 office if they need to to get a get a deal done i don't know all right i'm gonna uh say some private

01:03:58.200 things to my beloved subscribers on locals and the rest of you thanks for joining i'll see you tomorrow

01:04:05.960 i hope same time same place gets better every time uh oh um once again my option of going private is not

01:04:19.160 working but the button's just not responding so i can't go private with you on locals but uh those of

01:04:27.480 you who are not on locals you did not get the intense enjoyment of the pre-show the pre-show features my

01:04:34.440 cats getting fed and me trying to make 15 foot putts and my uh morning drumming in case you like

01:04:43.480 drumming in the morning it's the worst time for it um so that all that's happening and you're missing

01:04:50.600 it all right that's about all i got i guess i'll go uh eat some breakfast since the technology is

01:04:56.600 trying to suggest that we're done here and uh say see you later

01:05:05.640 stop luring them here

01:05:09.880 you don't want to have too many people all right see you later

01:05:13.640 you don't want to have too many people all right

01:05:18.680 you don't want to have too many people all right

01:05:22.680 all right

01:05:31.720 you

01:05:35.720 you

01:05:37.720 you

01:05:39.720 you

01:05:41.720 you

01:05:43.720 you

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - August 18, 2025

Episode 2931 CWSA 08⧸18⧸25

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