Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2978 CWSA 10⧸04⧸25

00:00:00.740 We got room up front?

00:00:02.660 Make sure you have your beverage because you're going to need it.

00:00:08.240 You're going to need a beverage today.

00:00:12.420 Boom, boom, boom, boom.

00:00:14.940 All right, let's see if we can get everything working today.

00:00:19.620 We'll get your comments working. 0.98

00:00:22.480 Oh, darn it. 0.98

00:00:26.320 Not on that device. 0.99

00:00:30.000 Maybe on this device.

00:00:34.240 I've got to remember to charge my devices, you know?

00:00:41.200 Oh, no.

00:00:44.320 No.

00:00:47.120 Oh.

00:00:53.620 I thought my cleaning proof threw away my one.

00:00:57.520 I mean, look how nasty this is.

00:01:02.460 It's the thing I read from the simultaneous ep.

00:01:05.840 It's the same one I've had for 10 years or something.

00:01:08.480 Well, looks like we should get serious now.

00:01:18.240 I'd like to get serious.

00:01:22.880 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of human civilization.

00:01:27.160 It's called Coffee with Scott Adams, and you've never had a better time.

00:01:31.040 But if you'd like to take a chance on elevating your experience up to levels that nobody can even understand with their tiny, shiny human brains, all you need for that is a copper mug or a glass of tanker shells, a steiner canteen jug or flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:01:46.820 And fill it with your favorite liquid, I like coffee.

00:01:51.300 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure.

00:01:54.200 Don't be near the day.

00:01:55.400 The thing that makes everything better.

00:01:57.860 It's called the simultaneous sip, and it happens now.

00:02:01.100 Go.

00:02:01.280 Well, I wonder if there's any scientific study that they didn't really need to do.

00:02:16.500 Maybe they could have asked Scott.

00:02:17.840 Oh, here's one.

00:02:19.220 Medical Express is writing about. 1.00

00:02:23.520 Albert is dumb. 0.99

00:02:24.640 He's writing that couples should never go to bed angry, right? 1.00

00:02:29.000 It might be time to rethink that, he thinks.

00:02:31.860 So how many of you have a rule, if you're a couple, that you're never going to sleep angry or bed?

00:02:40.540 Is that a good rule?

00:02:42.200 Well, it turns out maybe that's a bad rule.

00:02:45.460 Because if you don't go to sleep when you're angry, you're probably going to be even more angrier because you didn't get any sleep.

00:02:54.480 That's what they're finding out now.

00:02:57.660 And they could have saved a little bit of time by asking me.

00:03:01.280 Let me summarize this.

00:03:02.800 If you're a couple, a hetero couple, and you're having a fight, the man wants to go to sleep, and the woman wants to keep that man up as part of the process of torturing the man until he does or says what the woman wants him to do. 0.99

00:03:24.940 Am I right?

00:03:27.280 I don't know if I can even remember a time I was in a couple situation, and I wanted to stay up late to argue about something.

00:03:36.640 Zero times I've wanted to do that.

00:03:39.360 I always think, you'll still be here tomorrow, and it probably wasn't important in the first place.

00:03:43.520 All right, so as long as you remember, it's only women who want to stay up late, and it's not because they want to work it out. 0.57

00:03:52.480 It's because they want to torture you.

00:03:55.400 All right.

00:03:55.960 According to Massimo, it's an account on X.

00:04:00.680 He doesn't have a source, but he says that tamarind might help remove microplastics from your body.

00:04:09.320 So apparently microplastics like to stick to tamarind. 0.87

00:04:14.200 So it's not confirmed, but there seems to be evidence that if you ate tamarind, it would remove your microplastics.

00:04:20.540 I don't know. 0.97

00:04:22.300 I like having microplastics in my balls, according to science. 0.87

00:04:28.220 At some point, they'll be just totally plastic. 0.97

00:04:31.900 But that might work.

00:04:34.180 So you know how I've been a continuous, let's say, AI skeptic?

00:04:42.320 Well, I think I'm ahead of my time.

00:04:46.260 So I just saw a post by Santiago, who is apparently in the technical world, and he says nobody's writing 90% of their code using AI, which is a claim that you've heard, that 90% of the code could be AI.

00:05:02.820 He goes, the real product that we gained from using AI is probably closer to 10%.

00:05:07.260 I guess Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google, said last year that 30% of the new code at Google was AI generated, but that the velocity only increased by 10%.

00:05:23.480 So you might be doing more of your code with AI, but that doesn't mean you're doing less work, because you've got to check it.

00:05:31.280 You have to check it so much, it's about the same amount of work, which is what I sort of speculated would be true.

00:05:39.800 But here's one that caught me off guard.

00:05:42.280 You've heard that the best AIs are already better than doctors looking at scans, right?

00:05:49.600 You've all heard that?

00:05:51.020 Well, somebody who's not an AI company did a test.

00:05:54.160 That's Rowan Paul's talking about this on X.

00:05:58.060 And it turns out that the actual human radiologist did way better than the GPT-5.

00:06:06.820 GPT-5 was looking at radiology scans.

00:06:11.680 I guess it got 30% right, 30%, and the doctors just killed it.

00:06:19.300 So, if you thought that it was already replacing programmers, not even a little, and if you thought that it was going to quickly replace doctors in at least some small way, maybe not.

00:06:35.220 Maybe we're not even close.

00:06:36.760 I mean, it does stand to reason that AI would do pattern recognition better than people eventually, but it doesn't look like we're actually that close.

00:06:49.300 But there's one of the AIs called Sora that makes videos, which has banned South Park videos from being made on their platform because people were making full episodes.

00:07:03.300 You know, I kept saying that AI can't make a full movie or a full TV show.

00:07:08.620 It only does, you know, it's only good for, I don't know, less than a minute.

00:07:12.640 But apparently, if your content is as simple as South Park, because that would be the simplest art you could reproduce, people have figured out how to make full fake episodes.

00:07:25.700 I don't think they'll be funny, but they would be full.

00:07:29.040 Well, there's a new study, according to Futurism, that says that the Waymo self-driving taxi cars are so safe that it's almost comical, they say.

00:07:43.300 So, there are reports of accidents in the self-driving Waymos, but if you drill down, it's often that the Waymo was parked.

00:07:53.640 Something just ran into it while it was parked.

00:07:55.620 A lot of the accidents got rear-ended, which presumably most of them were not its fault.

00:08:03.660 And then there were some where the passengers opened a door while it was still moving, and it would do something like hit a passenger or something.

00:08:11.980 But if you looked at just real accidents where the Waymo caused the accident or couldn't respond fast enough, it's almost a disappearing number.

00:08:23.100 So, we're beyond the crossover point where the self-driving car is safer than a human.

00:08:32.060 It looks like we're way over.

00:08:34.120 Now, they're claiming that the Waymos are safer than the Tesla self-driving, but that likely is also to be a questionable data, but also that would change quickly, I'm sure.

00:08:48.700 Anyway, so, self-driving cars, they're coming.

00:08:55.280 So, let's see. 1.00

00:08:56.640 I live in California, the dumbest state. 0.99

00:08:59.660 What would the dumbest state do if they knew that self-driving taxis were the biggest new wave that's coming? 1.00

00:09:07.940 What would be the dumbest thing you could do? 0.99

00:09:10.380 Oh, it's what we're doing. 0.97

00:09:11.640 And Newsom just signed a, they called it a landmark deal, Politico does, so that Uber and Lyft drivers can form unions, at least in California.

00:09:23.780 So, we're 12 months away from every Uber driver and Lyft driver losing their job because they can't compete with self-driving taxis.

00:09:34.000 Maybe not one year, maybe two.

00:09:35.600 And Newsom wants to make it more expensive for Uber and Lyft to maintain those drivers.

00:09:45.840 Now, I would think that Uber and Lyft are already looking at self-driving options because it's the only way they'll survive.

00:09:53.800 And they're really going to have to run now because there's no way they're going to compete with unionized drivers. 0.95

00:10:00.500 So, I think California just put Uber and Lyft and a business from their, at least their existing business model.

00:10:10.100 They probably can adjust.

00:10:13.280 Well, of course, it's the Saturday, so we're talking about Bill Maher saying interesting things with his guests.

00:10:20.180 I guess Bill Maher was a little frustrated, they say, with Dave Chappelle and some other,

00:10:26.920 I guess some other comedians went to Saudi Arabia for some kind of comedy event there.

00:10:33.980 Got paid an awful lot, like a lot.

00:10:38.280 We don't know the numbers, but you can assume it's a lot.

00:10:42.520 But Chappelle acted as if he could speak more freely in Saudi Arabia than in America.

00:10:49.640 But I know the only example I heard of that was that Chappelle joked that he could make fun of Israel and Saudi Arabia, but not in America.

00:11:02.340 Is he right?

00:11:03.860 Of course he is.

00:11:06.080 Yeah.

00:11:06.700 Now, I would not say that there's more free speech in Saudi Arabia, but just on that one topic.

00:11:13.220 Yeah.

00:11:13.580 On that one topic, probably more free speech in Saudi Arabia.

00:11:16.800 All right.

00:11:20.300 Now, free speech is not really the question because the government is not involved in any case.

00:11:25.520 But you wouldn't get away with it so well in the U.S.

00:11:32.880 And then Van Jones, who was also on Bill Maher's show, made news a few times.

00:11:39.140 And one of them was, Van was sort of agreeing with Bill Maher that the Nigeria genocide, which apparently is a genocide that's been ongoing of Christians, is being ignored.

00:11:55.820 And, you know, there's certainly thought that some groups are getting special attention.

00:12:00.220 And Van Jones said, quote, no Jews, no news.

00:12:06.600 Apparently, that's a saying.

00:12:08.020 I'd never heard that before.

00:12:09.620 So the idea was that people don't care about Nigeria, but we've been trained to care about Israel.

00:12:15.880 So we imagine that whatever's happening in Israel is the big news.

00:12:21.160 But Nigeria is pretty big news, genocide-wise.

00:12:27.860 Gavin Newsom is trying to get right with the young men.

00:12:32.660 So he played Fortnite and talked politics on Twitch.

00:12:37.120 And he has admitted that Democrats are not very entertaining or funny.

00:12:44.120 I like the fact that they're starting to realize that they don't have a meme game and they don't have a humor game and their social media game is basically just mean.

00:12:55.240 It's never funny or uplifting or positive or anything.

00:12:58.900 But this story makes me give my prediction for 2028.

00:13:08.780 I feel like we're heading, and I might, you know, I'm terrible at guessing vice president choices.

00:13:16.480 I don't think I've ever, probably never been right about vice president choices.

00:13:22.660 My other predictions on other domains have been pretty good.

00:13:26.300 But vice president, terrible.

00:13:28.220 And I'm terrible at that.

00:13:30.180 However, I had an image today while I was just sitting here of Newsom being the top of the ticket and AOC being the VP.

00:13:39.420 And I thought to myself, oh, shoot.

00:13:43.880 They cancel each other's problems pretty well.

00:13:47.400 You know it?

00:13:48.720 So AOC is too lefty to be the head of the ticket right away.

00:13:54.880 I mean, she could, you know, if she were under Newsom, who probably would move to the middle if he were running for president, you know, we already see signs of that.

00:14:05.280 So Newsom could make the Democrats look like they wouldn't be communists.

00:14:11.220 Well, AOC would satisfy the communists who say, well, but if we can get a communist in the pipeline.

00:14:19.580 Now I'm saying communist instead of socialist, but you know.

00:14:22.380 So if you think of them as a pair, they kind of solve for each other, don't they?

00:14:31.460 In a way that Vance and Trump also solve for each other.

00:14:39.000 So if you think of either of them individually running against J.D. Vance, I see both of them losing.

00:14:46.820 But if you see them as a team, and people also see them as a team, they do kind of cancel for each other's weaknesses.

00:14:54.880 And that you could have to watch out for that they would be the most, let's say, media savvy Democrats.

00:15:05.100 They both were, well, Newsom more than AOC, would probably be willing to bend in whatever direction would get them elected, which I hate to say is good technique if that's what you want to do.

00:15:16.340 So I'm not going to say that they could win yet, but I would be surprised if that's not the ticket, Newsom on top and AOC VP.

00:15:28.940 So look for that.

00:15:31.540 All right.

00:15:32.280 So you know how we all became so cynical about the political polls that we thought that many of them were fake?

00:15:39.220 Well, I have a little way for you to tell when polls are likely to be fake, not confirming, but when they're likely to be fake.

00:15:49.940 They're least likely to be fake when there's something imminent that will tell you what the truth was.

00:15:56.780 For example, the polls always get suspiciously, they say the polls will get suspiciously accurate close to the election itself.

00:16:10.360 Have you noticed that?

00:16:11.760 That all the pollsters who are all over the place, they start converging.

00:16:15.700 Doesn't mean they're right, but they're way closer to whatever the reality is by election day.

00:16:22.060 Do you know why?

00:16:22.940 Well, my theory, based on pollsters who actually are in the business and will say this directly, is that a lot of those polls are fake when it's far away from the election.

00:16:38.060 In other words, they're just trying to push a candidate by making them look more popular.

00:16:43.140 And the reason they can do that when the election is far away is they can always say, well, things tightened up at the end.

00:16:49.640 So nobody will know that it was a fake poll, because when you get to the point where you can actually count the votes, they've already closed the gap and gotten close to reality.

00:17:01.040 So it's a perfect crime.

00:17:03.280 So now look at the polls about public opinion of who's being blamed for closing the government.

00:17:11.100 Oh, isn't that convenient that there will never be an election?

00:17:17.540 So we'll never know for sure what people thought about closing the government and whether or not the Democrats or Republicans are mostly to blame.

00:17:27.940 What happens when there's no way to know for sure if a poll is rigged?

00:17:34.200 I'll tell you what I think happens.

00:17:38.400 I think they're rigged.

00:17:40.080 And I would think that since there's no way to get caught, because people will just say, well, our poll said this.

00:17:47.620 Your poll said that.

00:17:49.420 It's a toss-up.

00:17:50.700 I think that probably the polls are rigged.

00:17:54.140 Not all of them, but some of them on the question of who's getting blamed for the shutdown. 0.95

00:18:00.840 Van Jones also thinks that the Democrats are being dumb because they're going to get blamed for every little thing that's not happening.

00:18:12.260 But he's not 100% sure. 0.99

00:18:14.240 Could go either way.

00:18:15.900 He says, quote, I think you can always trust our party to do the wrong thing at the wrong time for the right reason.

00:18:22.320 That's pretty good, too.

00:18:23.820 The wrong thing at the wrong time.

00:18:26.000 But, you know, they mean well.

00:18:27.300 Well, that's a perfect summary.

00:18:32.120 Wrong thing at the wrong time.

00:18:33.920 But they mean well.

00:18:36.460 In other news, the Washington Post is firing some more reporters and editors as part of their sweeping changes that they're doing over there.

00:18:47.460 But do you know what a copy editor is versus a regular editor?

00:18:54.280 A regular editor is sort of looking at the big picture.

00:18:58.660 You know, what is this story about?

00:19:00.580 And does it make sense?

00:19:02.200 And, you know, does it hold together?

00:19:04.120 Just, you know, the big picture.

00:19:05.360 So that's what that kind of editor would do.

00:19:07.960 And that kind of editor might be more like, you know, a manager.

00:19:11.860 But a copy editor would be a lower level, usually younger editor who is trying to someday maybe be a regular editor.

00:19:21.300 But the copy editor is just checking grammar and punctuation.

00:19:24.400 Now, several of them look like they're getting cut.

00:19:29.320 And I say, why would a newspaper need a copy editor in the age of AI?

00:19:34.900 That seems to be the one thing that the AI would get every time and should be already better than a regular copy editor.

00:19:43.960 Now, it might not work as well for a book because, I don't know, just length.

00:19:48.100 But if you were taking a newspaper article and all you wanted to do is check the grammar, why do you need a human to do that?

00:19:57.660 So I think what they're doing is they just won't have copy editors for the opinion people.

00:20:03.420 But they probably will say, make sure you run it through an AI to at least check the spelling and stuff.

00:20:14.180 All right.

00:20:18.100 Did you lock the front door?

00:20:21.020 Check.

00:20:21.560 Closed the garage door?

00:20:22.740 Yep.

00:20:23.240 Installed window sensors, smoke sensors, and HD cameras with night vision?

00:20:26.740 No.

00:20:27.520 And you set up credit card transaction alerts, a secure VPN for a private connection, and continuous monitoring for our personal info on the dark web?

00:20:34.040 Uh, I'm looking into it.

00:20:36.580 Stress less about security.

00:20:38.300 Choose security solutions from TELUS for peace of mind at home and online.

00:20:42.160 Visit telus.com slash total security to learn more.

00:20:45.720 Conditions apply.

00:20:48.100 So, the Supreme Court, as sided with Trump, they can strip the deportation protection from 300,000 Venezuelan migrants that he's been trying to ship back.

00:21:01.400 So, Trump wins again.

00:21:03.440 The New York Post is reporting.

00:21:04.860 The Supreme Court on Friday said, yep, you can deport those 300,000 Venezuelans.

00:21:11.740 Meanwhile, Russ Vogt, budget guy, he's already looking for big multi-billion dollar cuts that he can do when the government is partly shut down.

00:21:29.240 So, he's freezing 2.1 billion in infrastructure in Chicago.

00:21:35.360 He's, uh, already stripped 8 billion in funding for, uh, green projects.

00:21:42.000 And, uh, let's see, what else?

00:21:45.320 And 18 billion in infrastructure for New York City.

00:21:48.960 Now, some of those might just be delayed.

00:21:51.320 But some of them might be just money we'll never have to spend.

00:21:59.200 So, there was a, uh, some quotes in, uh, by Yuval Noah Harari.

00:22:07.420 He's a famous author who says provocative things.

00:22:10.840 And he's very smart, so people listen to him.

00:22:12.820 Um, and he said that, uh, quote, most people will be willing to give up their privacy in exchange for much better health care based on 24-hour monitoring of what's happening inside their bodies.

00:22:26.860 Uh, Wide Awake Media is reporting on this.

00:22:30.080 Um, so that people who have biometric sensors, he thinks, and, and Google and Facebook and everybody else, including China, will, uh, know what's happening in your body all the time.

00:22:41.060 Um, but, it'll make your health care much less expensive.

00:22:45.720 I'm going to double down on that.

00:22:47.620 Not only is he probably right, here's, here's what I think's going to happen.

00:22:52.960 Um, the normal way this civilization goes is that we tweak the things that are working.

00:23:01.280 And we tweak it and tweak it and tweak it.

00:23:03.260 With health care, those tweaks just make everything better but more expensive.

00:23:08.540 The better part is great.

00:23:11.340 The more expensive part reaches this point where we just can't do it.

00:23:16.000 It's just too expensive.

00:23:17.380 And we're there.

00:23:18.400 We're at that point where we just can't afford everybody to have the high quality health care.

00:23:24.660 So, what would happen if you just can't afford it and the government isn't going to give it to you?

00:23:30.980 Well, you're, you're going to get flexible then.

00:23:34.060 And then somebody's going to say, all right, here's the deal.

00:23:35.860 If you give up all of your bodily privacy, we'll, we'll tell you that we'll anonymize the data so that we're just using it for science and it's not about you specifically.

00:23:47.280 We'll tell you that it's private, but you'll never know.

00:23:52.380 But you have to give us all your data about your health all the time.

00:23:56.100 And then we'll give you health care insurance at half the price.

00:24:03.120 How many people would take that deal?

00:24:06.320 All the young people.

00:24:07.800 Because the young people don't care about privacy the way the older people do. 1.00

00:24:11.700 So, I do think, I've been saying this for years actually, that the, the unstoppable arc of history is that people will willingly trade their privacy for financial gain and safety.

00:24:30.240 And I would add that people will trade their privacy to handle crime, especially in the AI age of crime.

00:24:42.980 There will be so much clever crime with AI, people stealing your passwords and your face and your, just everything.

00:24:50.240 That you're going to say, all right, in order for me to be safe from, let's say, identity theft, somebody's going to need to know where I am at all times.

00:25:02.040 So that if somebody is in Walmart trying to pretend to be me, the system will say, nope, we know where Scott is.

00:25:10.880 Scott's not in Walmart.

00:25:12.540 That can't be him.

00:25:13.260 So that's a simplistic example.

00:25:16.040 But I think that because we're broke, that we incrementally just made everything better but more expensive, that security will be too expensive, and also the risk of bad things will be higher and higher, and health care will just be literally unaffordable.

00:25:36.020 And that the solution for both of those will be massive, voluntary, in quotes, giving up of privacy, because it's the only way to lower your costs.

00:25:48.320 It's the only way.

00:25:49.600 There's probably no other way to do it.

00:25:51.600 Now, I know whenever I roach this subject, you imagine that I'm in favor of losing privacy.

00:25:59.340 I'm not in favor of it.

00:26:01.240 I'm just saying there's no way around it.

00:26:03.660 We're all going to give up our privacy.

00:26:05.380 And we'll do it because we can't afford not to.

00:26:09.640 It'll just be too dangerous and too expensive.

00:26:14.180 So I guess the Trump push against crime in Memphis is underway.

00:26:22.040 And Pam Bondi says, according to Newsmax, 60 arrests overnight.

00:26:26.960 They got a bunch of guns and illegal people and got a suspect warning for terrible crime.

00:26:35.380 So since Monday, they've had 153 arrests, including five gang members, 48 guns seized, and five missing children recovered.

00:26:45.100 How do they get 48 guns?

00:26:47.060 Does that mean that there were 48 suspicious people that they stopped that all had illegal guns?

00:26:55.580 That's a lot of people with guns in a few days.

00:26:59.520 So you know that story about the trans person who wanted to travel to Kavanaugh's house and assassinate him, but that plot got stopped?

00:27:11.200 Well, that person just got an eight-year prison sentence.

00:27:15.760 Prosecutors were going for 30.

00:27:19.440 I saw some chatter that some people thought he got a lesser or she.

00:27:25.900 I don't know how he or she identifies, but that the perp got a lesser sentence than it could have been because of the trans situation.

00:27:36.400 I'm not sure I believe that, but I heard some chatter about that.

00:27:43.240 Anyway, trans is in every story, it seems like.

00:27:47.900 Well, apparently we're hearing now, according to the Gateway Pundit, Christina Layla has a, I think, looks like a scoop, but I'm not sure,

00:27:56.340 that allegedly an FBI agent was fired recently for refusing to arrest and do a perp walk of James Comey.

00:28:04.700 Didn't you wonder why there was no perp walk?

00:28:07.800 You know, like the Roger Stone raid at 6 in the morning at his house with the CNN cameras all running.

00:28:15.320 And you wondered, wait a minute, because Roger Stone asked this question.

00:28:19.060 Why did I get the 6 a.m. raid with the cameras rolling?

00:28:24.400 And what did Comey get?

00:28:27.180 Come in when he got a chance?

00:28:29.120 Something like that.

00:28:30.400 Well, now we know part of the reason.

00:28:32.440 They might have had trouble getting an FBI agent to actually participate in perp walking, their old boss, but they fired one.

00:28:41.020 They fired him for refusing.

00:28:43.540 And I thought to myself, you know what?

00:28:47.260 I think you have to fire that guy.

00:28:49.040 I do think you have to fire him.

00:28:52.120 I can see why he doesn't want to do it.

00:28:54.480 I mean, you know, he might have some loyalties and the history and all that.

00:28:57.800 I can see.

00:28:58.900 But you just can't make no.

00:29:02.100 You know, you can't just have people say, no, I won't do what you just ordered me to do.

00:29:05.980 So, anyway, fired for refusing the perp walk.

00:29:14.580 According to John Solomon and Stephen Richards and Just the News, they're reporting that FBI had three informants that were talking about Biden corruption in Ukraine,

00:29:27.120 but there was no investigation that anybody can identify.

00:29:31.840 So, the FBI had three whistleblowers saying that the Bidens were doing illegal stuff in Ukraine,

00:29:39.760 and they decided not to, we think, current information, they decided not to pursue it.

00:29:46.500 Do you think there's any reason that they didn't pursue it other than the president was the president?

00:29:53.800 Seems to me probably just because the president was going to get them if they did.

00:30:01.740 Trump has another legal victory.

00:30:04.980 I guess a judge just ruled that sanctuary cities can be cut off from federal funds if Trump wants to do that.

00:30:12.940 Right, Bart has that story.

00:30:14.800 So, that's a pretty big one.

00:30:18.980 Will that be enough for sanctuary cities to go away?

00:30:22.500 Or will they say, you can't do this to us?

00:30:25.420 We will not take your federal money, and we will stay a sanctuary city.

00:30:30.960 I don't know how big their budget is and how much of that is federal funds,

00:30:35.020 but I would think that losing federal funds for a city would be a big enough deal

00:30:40.800 that they'd have to back off the sanctuary city thing.

00:30:43.360 Well, I don't know what's going to happen.

00:30:45.300 Probably more lawsuits.

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00:31:15.520 So you know the story about, I guess you would call him an independent journalist, Nick Sorter.

00:31:25.320 So he got arrested in Portland, and the video that we saw was he was taking a burning flag

00:31:31.360 out of an Antifa person's hand, and he put it on the ground, and he stomped out the fire

00:31:37.100 because he was trying to be pro-flag, you know, anti-burning,

00:31:43.020 and couldn't put up with watching it burn.

00:31:46.600 Now, I don't know that it was an upgrade,

00:31:49.360 that he took a burning flag that somebody was holding on a pole

00:31:53.980 and put it on the ground and stomped on it.

00:31:56.620 I don't know if that accomplished the, let's show full respect for the flag

00:32:03.100 that maybe he wanted, but everybody got the point that he wasn't cool

00:32:08.880 with people burning a flag right in front of him.

00:32:12.040 However, what kind of a crime is that?

00:32:15.200 The flag was already on fire.

00:32:17.600 It's not like he destroyed a flag.

00:32:20.600 It's not, I don't think it's illegal to try to save a flag.

00:32:25.480 Look, so here's the new update in the story.

00:32:29.320 Apparently, the police who arrested him also didn't know what crime they were arresting him for,

00:32:34.280 he says, and that it took them an hour of discussion to come up with something

00:32:38.820 that looked like a crime that they could say that was why they arrested him.

00:32:43.720 So, can you be arrested before they know why they're arresting you?

00:32:48.840 Wouldn't that be enough just by itself to get you out of jail

00:32:53.080 if you found out you were arrested first and then they tried to figure out what you did?

00:32:58.080 Or is that normal?

00:32:59.880 Maybe they just assume there's something and that's routine enough?

00:33:06.660 No typing.

00:33:08.100 No typing.

00:33:11.180 All right, my cat's trying to use my keyboard.

00:33:13.200 Anyway, so it's funny because when I watched the videos of the arrests,

00:33:21.260 I was asking the same questions like,

00:33:24.020 we don't have any video of any kind of a crime.

00:33:28.180 Well, what kind of a crime? 0.99

00:33:29.580 I think it had something to do with disturbing the peace or some stupid thing. 0.98

00:33:34.140 Doesn't look like it will hold up. 0.99

00:33:35.560 So, you know, Argentina's flashy new president, Javier Millet,

00:33:46.600 he's just launched a zero tolerance plan, he calls it, for their criminal code.

00:33:53.180 So, I guess there's a lot of crime.

00:33:55.320 And he's going to be as aggressive in fighting crime as he has been

00:33:59.060 in changing the economics of that country.

00:34:02.580 But one of the things that caught my eye is that he wants to revise things

00:34:08.500 so that a 13-year-old can be charged as an adult for some kinds of crimes.

00:34:16.980 Currently, it's 16.

00:34:18.720 I don't know.

00:34:19.420 That's probably what it is in the U.S., right?

00:34:22.180 That if you're 16 or older, it's up to the court whether they charge you as an adult, right?

00:34:30.060 Is that how it works?

00:34:30.880 Over 16, it's an option.

00:34:34.200 But he wants to go to 13 because of the gang situation.

00:34:38.240 Once the gangs and the kids realize that they can get away with anything,

00:34:43.040 if they're under 16, then a lot of your gang action becomes 15-year-olds.

00:34:50.180 So, maybe that's a good idea.

00:34:52.280 I mean, it seems harsh as heck that a 13-year-old would be charged as an adult.

00:34:58.120 I mean, it's hard to imagine something harsher than that.

00:35:01.300 On the other hand, if it's a gigantic problem that the 13-year-olds are becoming gang members,

00:35:09.840 maybe it's a good idea.

00:35:11.720 I don't know.

00:35:13.060 So, we'll see what happens there.

00:35:15.440 Remember that story about the 100,000 SIM cards in the New York area?

00:35:19.880 They found a room that was these giant racks with, I think, some kind of phones.

00:35:27.300 And it was designed so that they could make a whole bunch of phone calls

00:35:33.140 and jam up a telephone cell network if they wanted to.

00:35:37.440 So, it was basically a hacker facility for bringing down the U.S. phone system in at least New York.

00:35:47.940 And the current update is that it was probably China.

00:35:52.560 It was probably China. 0.59

00:35:55.900 So, what do you think of that?

00:35:59.040 But it's one thing when Americans travel to China and, you know, they get, they're being spied on and their IP is stolen.

00:36:09.240 That's bad enough.

00:36:10.760 But can China build a facility in the United States that has no other purpose than sabotage? 0.90

00:36:19.040 No other purpose.

00:36:20.320 There's nothing else it could do.

00:36:21.700 It was only built for sabotage.

00:36:24.160 What do we do with that?

00:36:25.220 Do we call them up and say, ah, we do some stuff to you.

00:36:30.140 You do some stuff to us.

00:36:31.480 We caught yours.

00:36:33.080 So, you know, why don't you, you know, let some of our spies loose or something like that.

00:36:37.840 You wonder how civilized it is behind the curtain.

00:36:41.720 Like, because, you know, obviously we know that they're doing stuff like this.

00:36:46.220 And obviously China knows that if we can, we'd be doing stuff like that.

00:36:51.660 You know, some version of it, whatever the American version looks like.

00:36:55.220 So, it does make me wonder if behind the curtain, everybody just goes, ah, nice try.

00:37:04.140 We got you on this one.

00:37:05.640 You'll get us on the next one.

00:37:07.540 And it was just sort of some, like, professional cat and mouse game.

00:37:11.720 No cat.

00:37:12.900 No.

00:37:13.600 No.

00:37:14.400 Not these cables.

00:37:15.280 Well, the big news is that Hamas saw Trump's proposed ceasefire deal and very cleverly agreed to a different deal.

00:37:28.920 So, the news is acting like there's something like a deal because the U.S. proposed it.

00:37:39.220 Israel said yes from the start.

00:37:42.840 And then we waited for Hamas. 0.93

00:37:44.560 And then Hamas said yes. 0.90

00:37:46.800 But in their yes, they specified things that may be so unacceptable that it's really a no.

00:37:54.160 So, there's a little bit of fog of war around this.

00:37:59.060 But I guess Trump asked Israel to stop bombing, stop fighting, so that they could, you know, see if they've got something here.

00:38:07.580 And I think Israel did. 0.99

00:38:09.580 But that doesn't mean that we have a deal.

00:38:11.720 It just means that they're going to try to make a little space to make sure there's a deal.

00:38:16.580 So, what Hamas wants that looks to me like a non-starter is that they cleverly, it looks like they're going to cleverly say, oh, we don't want any role in the future leadership.

00:38:30.900 No, no, we'll give that up.

00:38:33.620 But what they do want is to be part of the decision making for how some kind of a Palestinian leadership is designed for the whole area.

00:38:44.660 And the peace deal that, as I understand it, does not, in the early days, give Gaza any kind of Palestinian leadership or any kind of Hamas involvement.

00:38:58.660 And that that's like a pretty hard rule.

00:39:00.640 And that it would be some coalition of friendly Arab countries that just want to take some kind of temporary, but it might last a while, some kind of management role of the area, so that someday it could be Palestinian-led, but not in the short run.

00:39:20.560 So, it seems to me that Hamas might have a clever plan that goes like this. 0.98

00:39:27.640 How about we'll be totally peaceful, but we'll just be a useful part of the transition to a Palestinian leadership.

00:39:36.380 What would happen if Hamas peacefully became a powerful part of the Palestinian leadership in the future?

00:39:45.960 Well, since Hamas seems to be the most bloodthirsty and willing to go the furthest, probably the same thing would happen. 0.79

00:39:56.540 In the medium term, it wouldn't even be long term.

00:40:00.660 In the medium term, they would just reconstitute all their military threat.

00:40:05.520 They would kill the people who are peaceful, but ahead of them in politics.

00:40:09.880 And they would just take over again, right?

00:40:13.560 So, if they exist in any form, it allows them to organize, get weapons, prepare for the next time they try to take over, and we would get nothing.

00:40:25.080 So, if you think that's a small deal of who's involved in figuring out what the leadership of that country looks like, it's not a small deal.

00:40:35.340 Well, it's the whole deal, and they're completely on opposite sides.

00:40:40.520 You can't have absolutely no involvement or power or weapons or anything for Hamas.

00:40:47.560 At the same time, Hamas is a key player in reorganizing and rebuilding Gaza.

00:40:53.960 You can't have both, and it looks like that might be the stopping point.

00:40:57.360 It looks like there would be agreement on hostages, but Hamas says, yeah, we totally agree on this hostage exchange, but only if the field conditions are ready for peace.

00:41:14.740 And so, that means that they get to keep their weapons, they get to be part of the solution going forward.

00:41:21.680 So, they're not really agreeing to exchange hostages.

00:41:27.900 I'm seeing a bunch of messages here.

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00:42:37.920 Oh, I see somebody arguing about whether the ADL called me a Holocaust denier.

00:42:45.960 It wasn't the ADL.

00:42:47.760 It was the head of the ADL, Greenblatt.

00:42:50.680 So he personally did it, not the ADL officially.

00:42:57.020 Anyway, here's what I think.

00:42:59.380 I think the big winner here might be Israel, because it looks to me like this will be the final proof that Hamas is not serious about a real peace deal. 0.88

00:43:08.500 Because they're not going to take themselves out of it, and if they have to be taken out of it, they're not going to give up their hostages.

00:43:18.920 So I think we're right back where we started.

00:43:22.420 But there is people who are smarter than I am are acting optimistic.

00:43:29.180 And if they're acting optimistic, it could be.

00:43:32.480 It could be the Hamas is, you know, taking their best shot, but they know they're going to have to negotiate back to something like not being involved in the future. 0.63

00:43:41.540 So we'll see.

00:43:44.060 I'm going to bet against this working.

00:43:46.900 I want it to work, and I think it's the closest we've ever been.

00:43:51.640 And there's definitely a possibility it could work.

00:43:53.960 But I'm going to bet against it.

00:43:55.480 My prediction will be that Israel just gets their free pass, and they get to say, well, we tried. 0.91

00:44:02.180 Did everything we could.

00:44:03.440 Couldn't get it done.

00:44:04.180 Russia has attacked Ukraine's, one of their big natural gas facilities.

00:44:11.980 So as I'd been predicting, the war has evolved into mostly robots doing the fighting, if you include drones as robots.

00:44:22.760 And the most impactful attacks will be on energy infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine.

00:44:30.640 So it's getting closer and closer to that old original Star Trek plot that I've never been able to get out of my head because it makes so much sense, but it's so ridiculous.

00:44:42.260 And when something makes complete sense, but it's also ridiculous, you can't forget that.

00:44:47.720 Do you remember the episode where there was some planet where they were so advanced that they realized they're having.

00:44:57.020 Cats.

00:44:57.500 And they realized that having wars where you reach trying to kill each other was too uncivilized, but that they couldn't solve stuff without war.

00:45:07.800 So you still have to have the war, but you wanted to get rid of the uncivilized part of the war where people are being ripped apart by shrapnel.

00:45:16.260 So instead, they would simulate the war with computers so they know who would have won if they had a war.

00:45:23.120 And then the losing team has to line up and go into these machines that basically evaporate them.

00:45:30.520 So they kind of volunteer to be taken off the face of the earth if their side loses in the simulation.

00:45:38.280 And they're all just happily standing in line because they agree with that's their system.

00:45:41.880 Well, when I watched the Russia-Ukraine war morph from frontline action, you know, hand-to-hand combat, people blowing people up with shrapnel, and that's all it is in the beginning.

00:45:56.400 And it starts to morph to, well, our robots are attacking your people.

00:46:01.520 Okay, now your robots are attacking our robots.

00:46:03.860 So you've got a robot-robot thing going, kind of like a simulation in a way.

00:46:09.000 And then you get to the point where the key targets are not people anymore.

00:46:16.180 The key targets are the infrastructure.

00:46:19.980 So what would happen if they just said, all right, here's the deal.

00:46:23.500 We're going to stop targeting people because it's not working.

00:46:27.480 The front line just hasn't moved.

00:46:29.140 So we'll just stop targeting people, but we'll go after your infrastructure.

00:46:34.040 You go after our infrastructure.

00:46:36.000 And by the way, we don't need people to go after infrastructure.

00:46:38.700 We'll use robots.

00:46:40.300 So our robots will attack your infrastructure, your energy infrastructure.

00:46:44.920 Your robots will attack ours.

00:46:46.840 And then whoever does the most damage with the robots on our infrastructure gets to win the war.

00:46:53.940 It's almost like Star Trek.

00:46:56.100 It's so weirdly reminding me of it.

00:47:03.180 Anyway, so I think I called that, I don't know who else was predicting that it would become a robots on energy infrastructure war,

00:47:14.700 but I'm going to claim credit for getting that one right.

00:47:18.260 So apparently the Russians had some kind of a plot to smuggle a bunch of drone explosives in cans of corn.

00:47:34.340 So they had massive cans of corn that had explosives in them.

00:47:39.420 Do you know why they had to use corn?

00:47:41.020 Because you can't have bombs that are made of peas.

00:47:49.760 Because it's like peas.

00:47:52.000 Never mind, never mind.

00:47:53.240 It works better if you see it in writing.

00:47:55.540 All right.

00:47:56.180 So apparently the, I don't know how they would even know that.

00:47:59.840 They think that these cans of corn with explosives in it were part of creating weapons for drones that would be dropped on Poland, Lithuania, and Germany.

00:48:14.640 Do you think Russia is literally targeting Poland, Lithuania, and Germany?

00:48:19.180 Like directly, like directly, with explosives?

00:48:23.800 I don't know.

00:48:24.840 I'm not buying that.

00:48:26.520 That doesn't really make sense, like why they would take that kind of a chance.

00:48:31.420 I can see them doing lots of flyovers with their, you know, with their drones and trying to unsettle Europe and make them think that they don't have any airspace defense, which they don't, apparently.

00:48:45.160 So that part makes sense.

00:48:46.560 I can't imagine that Germany would start doing explosive things, you know, things blowing up in these, you know, especially if it's a NATO country.

00:48:58.700 I just can't see them doing it.

00:49:00.060 So I don't believe that news.

00:49:04.140 Zelensky did a video, which I also don't believe.

00:49:07.320 It might be a little bit true, but he says that Russia now imports gasoline from various places.

00:49:16.560 From China and Europe and Belarus.

00:49:18.920 That would be because Ukraine did such a good job blowing up their refineries that they have to import gas. 0.92

00:49:26.360 Do you believe that?

00:49:28.260 Here's what I believe.

00:49:29.980 Probably a little bit and temporarily.

00:49:33.320 So I know some of the refineries got knocked out, so you could easily imagine them saying, all right, damn it, it's going to take us four months to fix this refinery, so we'll buy a little gas from our neighbors until we get that fixed.

00:49:48.220 It doesn't necessarily mean that Ukraine is bringing Russia to its knees on energy, but it's a little bit of a hint that if they keep doing it, maybe. 0.58

00:50:03.980 You know, I mean, that does signal something if they're getting their gas from other countries.

00:50:10.480 That's not a nothing, but I don't think it's as big as Zelensky wants to make it out to be yet.

00:50:17.520 It'll get bigger.

00:50:18.440 But Russia has also reportedly, according to Visingrad 24 on Axe, started attacking Ukrainian passenger trains with suicide drones.

00:50:33.220 So they just took out a passenger train yesterday, I guess.

00:50:38.020 So it's not all energy infrastructure.

00:50:42.820 Might be some other infrastructure, too.

00:50:48.080 So more airports are shuttered.

00:50:51.280 I guess it was a Munich airport.

00:50:53.240 Had another strange drones.

00:50:55.340 How surprised are you that there's no real air defense in Europe?

00:51:01.800 And apparently there's no real air defense in America.

00:51:04.640 Is that a surprise to you?

00:51:08.900 It's not a total surprise to me.

00:51:11.220 I've spent many, many years wondering how you could possibly protect the sky over a major country.

00:51:19.960 I mean, I can see why, you know, if maybe one missile was coming in, you could, you know, get a bead on it or something.

00:51:26.400 But it just doesn't seem to me that anybody can guard their sky.

00:51:32.940 It doesn't seem doable.

00:51:34.640 So I think Putin is probably being kind of smart, if it's Putin, to remind us every day, you know, Europe doesn't have any air defense.

00:51:44.860 So if you want to cause some trouble, you want to get into a big war, don't count on air defense because you don't have any.

00:51:52.260 It's a pretty good, pretty good psychological attack.

00:51:56.040 If that's what's going on.

00:51:58.120 We don't know that.

00:51:58.860 There's also reports, BBC, that Russia is targeting UK military satellites.

00:52:07.700 So I guess they try to jam them from the ground, presumably over the Ukraine situation.

00:52:13.780 But they also have assets in the air that apparently are following around other countries' satellites and trying to get data from them or jam them.

00:52:24.980 So there's already a space war.

00:52:27.500 So we actually currently have assets in space, we meaning the world.

00:52:35.320 So the UK has satellites and the Russians have anti-satellite equipment following it around, trying to jam it or try to read it. 0.62

00:52:47.900 So the space war, it's already on.

00:52:52.220 Yeah, space war's on.

00:52:54.300 It's just, you know, it'll get worse, but it's on.

00:53:01.360 Yeah, let's see what else is happening.

00:53:04.700 I saw a post by Marcus Villig who said that Europe now has, wait, that's not who that was.

00:53:11.540 It was from Cremu.

00:53:15.220 Cremu noticed that NVIDIA's market cap now exceeds that of all the big pharma combined.

00:53:22.080 So that one company, NVIDIA, bigger value than all of the big pharma combined.

00:53:30.660 Wow.

00:53:32.040 A lot of smart people are saying that the American economy would already be in an obvious recession except for AI.

00:53:39.700 And the AI stuff might be a little overblown.

00:53:45.240 But at the moment, it's making everything frothy.

00:53:48.000 So it is feeling a little bit like a dot-com bubble, I got to admit.

00:53:52.980 But I don't think you can use that analogy to predict this one.

00:53:57.080 Because everything's, you know, there's always enough differences that the analogy is not the thing you should look to.

00:54:04.100 Never use the analogy to win your argument.

00:54:06.660 That's what I say.

00:54:07.360 But also, Marcus Villig said that Europe now has zero companies left in the global top 25.

00:54:17.400 Just hold that in your head for a second.

00:54:20.180 Europe, Europe, all of Europe, has no company that's in the top 25 biggest companies.

00:54:29.500 None.

00:54:30.220 Do you have any question about the direction that Europe is going?

00:54:36.980 I don't see...

00:54:39.220 If Europe is not friendly for business, but is super friendly for Islamic immigration,

00:54:46.040 this only goes one way, right?

00:54:49.620 It can only go in one direction.

00:54:51.360 It's not like there's some possibility that it can go in a different direction.

00:54:56.480 They have designed Europe for failure, looks to me.

00:55:01.520 You know, by design, it can't exist in the long run.

00:55:07.240 But over in Japan, some interesting occurrence.

00:55:10.360 So for the first time, a woman is going to be prime minister of Japan, if everything goes the way it looks like it will.

00:55:19.040 But the woman, Sanae Takachi, is a super right-wing leader. 1.00

00:55:28.860 So Japan is going full Trump, apparently.

00:55:32.580 So Ms. Takachi is an anti-migration and opposes same-sex marriage, supports the requirement for couples to share a surname after marriage.

00:55:48.940 So she's so right-wing that she doesn't want you to get married unless you're going to take your husband's last name. 1.00

00:55:54.360 And she thinks that government gender equality could destroy the social structure of the family units. 0.93

00:56:03.980 And she supports jailing people who damaged Japan's national flag.

00:56:10.360 So she is super conservative. 0.94

00:56:14.600 And do you think that's the Trump effect?

00:56:18.300 I'm going to say yes.

00:56:20.720 I think that's the Trump effect.

00:56:22.880 I think that Japan is looking at the United States and saying, oh, yeah, maybe we need to close the border.

00:56:30.520 And maybe we need to get tough on crime.

00:56:33.460 Yeah, maybe we need to jail people who disrespect the flag.

00:56:37.980 I'm not on board on that one, by the way.

00:56:40.000 But I can see how they might look at it and say, let's take that model.

00:56:44.000 Yeah, that's definitely Trump.

00:56:47.140 But the most important thing, this is also from Massimo on X.

00:56:51.900 Again, I don't have the source for this, so maybe he's good at making stuff up.

00:56:56.980 I don't know.

00:56:57.800 But he says that scientific research has confirmed that a cat's purr is that a vibration that helps heal bones and improve tissue repair.

00:57:09.500 Now, I've heard that before, but his claim is that science has confirmed it.

00:57:13.700 So that's why I have these cats, for medical reasons, because they're purring me back to health.

00:57:25.540 All right.

00:57:25.920 So if you get a cat, your cat's going to purr you back to health.

00:57:29.160 Now, normally on Saturdays, Owen does a Spaces after the show, but this weekend it will be on Sunday.

00:57:41.100 So don't look for the Spaces event following this, but normally it would be on Saturday.

00:57:48.000 But this week, Sunday.

00:57:50.660 So go check that out tomorrow.

00:57:53.660 A cat purr is one of the best sounds ever, I have to say.

00:57:57.180 One of the best sounds ever.

00:57:58.380 All right.

00:57:59.260 I'm going to talk privately to the beloved members of Locals.

00:58:05.560 And the rest of you, thanks so much for joining.

00:58:07.980 Hope you come back tomorrow.

00:58:09.900 It's going to be a lovely day.

00:58:12.200 Looks excellent.

00:58:14.060 All right.

00:58:15.600 Locals, I'm coming at you. 1.00

00:58:16.940 The rest of you, bye for now.

00:58:28.380 Good night.

00:58:29.280 .

00:58:29.680 金庭.

00:58:30.140 Thank you.

00:59:00.140 Thank you.

00:59:30.140 Thank you.

01:00:00.140 Thank you.

01:00:30.140 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - October 04, 2025

Episode 2978 CWSA 10⧸04⧸25

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