Scott Adams is back with another episode of Coffee with Scott Adams! This week, he talks about the dangers of eating tamarind, and why you should never go to sleep when you're angry. He also talks about a recent report that says 90% of the world's AI could be written by humans.
00:01:22.880Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of human civilization.
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00:03:02.800If you're a couple, a hetero couple, and you're having a fight, the man wants to go to sleep, and the woman wants to keep that man up as part of the process of torturing the man until he does or says what the woman wants him to do.
00:04:46.260So I just saw a post by Santiago, who is apparently in the technical world, and he says nobody's writing 90% of their code using AI, which is a claim that you've heard, that 90% of the code could be AI.
00:05:02.820He goes, the real product that we gained from using AI is probably closer to 10%.
00:05:07.260I guess Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google, said last year that 30% of the new code at Google was AI generated, but that the velocity only increased by 10%.
00:05:23.480So you might be doing more of your code with AI, but that doesn't mean you're doing less work, because you've got to check it.
00:05:31.280You have to check it so much, it's about the same amount of work, which is what I sort of speculated would be true.
00:05:39.800But here's one that caught me off guard.
00:05:42.280You've heard that the best AIs are already better than doctors looking at scans, right?
00:06:11.680I guess it got 30% right, 30%, and the doctors just killed it.
00:06:19.300So, if you thought that it was already replacing programmers, not even a little, and if you thought that it was going to quickly replace doctors in at least some small way, maybe not.
00:06:36.760I mean, it does stand to reason that AI would do pattern recognition better than people eventually, but it doesn't look like we're actually that close.
00:06:49.300But there's one of the AIs called Sora that makes videos, which has banned South Park videos from being made on their platform because people were making full episodes.
00:07:03.300You know, I kept saying that AI can't make a full movie or a full TV show.
00:07:08.620It only does, you know, it's only good for, I don't know, less than a minute.
00:07:12.640But apparently, if your content is as simple as South Park, because that would be the simplest art you could reproduce, people have figured out how to make full fake episodes.
00:07:25.700I don't think they'll be funny, but they would be full.
00:07:29.040Well, there's a new study, according to Futurism, that says that the Waymo self-driving taxi cars are so safe that it's almost comical, they say.
00:07:43.300So, there are reports of accidents in the self-driving Waymos, but if you drill down, it's often that the Waymo was parked.
00:07:53.640Something just ran into it while it was parked.
00:07:55.620A lot of the accidents got rear-ended, which presumably most of them were not its fault.
00:08:03.660And then there were some where the passengers opened a door while it was still moving, and it would do something like hit a passenger or something.
00:08:11.980But if you looked at just real accidents where the Waymo caused the accident or couldn't respond fast enough, it's almost a disappearing number.
00:08:23.100So, we're beyond the crossover point where the self-driving car is safer than a human.
00:08:34.120Now, they're claiming that the Waymos are safer than the Tesla self-driving, but that likely is also to be a questionable data, but also that would change quickly, I'm sure.
00:08:48.700Anyway, so, self-driving cars, they're coming.
00:09:11.640And Newsom just signed a, they called it a landmark deal, Politico does, so that Uber and Lyft drivers can form unions, at least in California.
00:09:23.780So, we're 12 months away from every Uber driver and Lyft driver losing their job because they can't compete with self-driving taxis.
00:10:38.280We don't know the numbers, but you can assume it's a lot.
00:10:42.520But Chappelle acted as if he could speak more freely in Saudi Arabia than in America.
00:10:49.640But I know the only example I heard of that was that Chappelle joked that he could make fun of Israel and Saudi Arabia, but not in America.
00:11:20.300Now, free speech is not really the question because the government is not involved in any case.
00:11:25.520But you wouldn't get away with it so well in the U.S.
00:11:32.880And then Van Jones, who was also on Bill Maher's show, made news a few times.
00:11:39.140And one of them was, Van was sort of agreeing with Bill Maher that the Nigeria genocide, which apparently is a genocide that's been ongoing of Christians, is being ignored.
00:11:55.820And, you know, there's certainly thought that some groups are getting special attention.
00:12:00.220And Van Jones said, quote, no Jews, no news.
00:12:09.620So the idea was that people don't care about Nigeria, but we've been trained to care about Israel.
00:12:15.880So we imagine that whatever's happening in Israel is the big news.
00:12:21.160But Nigeria is pretty big news, genocide-wise.
00:12:27.860Gavin Newsom is trying to get right with the young men.
00:12:32.660So he played Fortnite and talked politics on Twitch.
00:12:37.120And he has admitted that Democrats are not very entertaining or funny.
00:12:44.120I like the fact that they're starting to realize that they don't have a meme game and they don't have a humor game and their social media game is basically just mean.
00:12:55.240It's never funny or uplifting or positive or anything.
00:12:58.900But this story makes me give my prediction for 2028.
00:13:08.780I feel like we're heading, and I might, you know, I'm terrible at guessing vice president choices.
00:13:16.480I don't think I've ever, probably never been right about vice president choices.
00:13:22.660My other predictions on other domains have been pretty good.
00:13:48.720So AOC is too lefty to be the head of the ticket right away.
00:13:54.880I mean, she could, you know, if she were under Newsom, who probably would move to the middle if he were running for president, you know, we already see signs of that.
00:14:05.280So Newsom could make the Democrats look like they wouldn't be communists.
00:14:11.220Well, AOC would satisfy the communists who say, well, but if we can get a communist in the pipeline.
00:14:19.580Now I'm saying communist instead of socialist, but you know.
00:14:22.380So if you think of them as a pair, they kind of solve for each other, don't they?
00:14:31.460In a way that Vance and Trump also solve for each other.
00:14:39.000So if you think of either of them individually running against J.D. Vance, I see both of them losing.
00:14:46.820But if you see them as a team, and people also see them as a team, they do kind of cancel for each other's weaknesses.
00:14:54.880And that you could have to watch out for that they would be the most, let's say, media savvy Democrats.
00:15:05.100They both were, well, Newsom more than AOC, would probably be willing to bend in whatever direction would get them elected, which I hate to say is good technique if that's what you want to do.
00:15:16.340So I'm not going to say that they could win yet, but I would be surprised if that's not the ticket, Newsom on top and AOC VP.
00:16:22.940Well, my theory, based on pollsters who actually are in the business and will say this directly, is that a lot of those polls are fake when it's far away from the election.
00:16:38.060In other words, they're just trying to push a candidate by making them look more popular.
00:16:43.140And the reason they can do that when the election is far away is they can always say, well, things tightened up at the end.
00:16:49.640So nobody will know that it was a fake poll, because when you get to the point where you can actually count the votes, they've already closed the gap and gotten close to reality.
00:17:03.280So now look at the polls about public opinion of who's being blamed for closing the government.
00:17:11.100Oh, isn't that convenient that there will never be an election?
00:17:17.540So we'll never know for sure what people thought about closing the government and whether or not the Democrats or Republicans are mostly to blame.
00:17:27.940What happens when there's no way to know for sure if a poll is rigged?
00:18:36.460In other news, the Washington Post is firing some more reporters and editors as part of their sweeping changes that they're doing over there.
00:18:47.460But do you know what a copy editor is versus a regular editor?
00:18:54.280A regular editor is sort of looking at the big picture.
00:20:27.520And you set up credit card transaction alerts, a secure VPN for a private connection, and continuous monitoring for our personal info on the dark web?
00:20:48.100So, the Supreme Court, as sided with Trump, they can strip the deportation protection from 300,000 Venezuelan migrants that he's been trying to ship back.
00:21:04.860The Supreme Court on Friday said, yep, you can deport those 300,000 Venezuelans.
00:21:11.740Meanwhile, Russ Vogt, budget guy, he's already looking for big multi-billion dollar cuts that he can do when the government is partly shut down.
00:21:29.240So, he's freezing 2.1 billion in infrastructure in Chicago.
00:21:35.360He's, uh, already stripped 8 billion in funding for, uh, green projects.
00:21:45.320And 18 billion in infrastructure for New York City.
00:21:48.960Now, some of those might just be delayed.
00:21:51.320But some of them might be just money we'll never have to spend.
00:21:59.200So, there was a, uh, some quotes in, uh, by Yuval Noah Harari.
00:22:07.420He's a famous author who says provocative things.
00:22:10.840And he's very smart, so people listen to him.
00:22:12.820Um, and he said that, uh, quote, most people will be willing to give up their privacy in exchange for much better health care based on 24-hour monitoring of what's happening inside their bodies.
00:22:26.860Uh, Wide Awake Media is reporting on this.
00:22:30.080Um, so that people who have biometric sensors, he thinks, and, and Google and Facebook and everybody else, including China, will, uh, know what's happening in your body all the time.
00:22:41.060Um, but, it'll make your health care much less expensive.
00:23:18.400We're at that point where we just can't afford everybody to have the high quality health care.
00:23:24.660So, what would happen if you just can't afford it and the government isn't going to give it to you?
00:23:30.980Well, you're, you're going to get flexible then.
00:23:34.060And then somebody's going to say, all right, here's the deal.
00:23:35.860If you give up all of your bodily privacy, we'll, we'll tell you that we'll anonymize the data so that we're just using it for science and it's not about you specifically.
00:23:47.280We'll tell you that it's private, but you'll never know.
00:23:52.380But you have to give us all your data about your health all the time.
00:23:56.100And then we'll give you health care insurance at half the price.
00:24:07.800Because the young people don't care about privacy the way the older people do.
00:24:11.700So, I do think, I've been saying this for years actually, that the, the unstoppable arc of history is that people will willingly trade their privacy for financial gain and safety.
00:24:30.240And I would add that people will trade their privacy to handle crime, especially in the AI age of crime.
00:24:42.980There will be so much clever crime with AI, people stealing your passwords and your face and your, just everything.
00:24:50.240That you're going to say, all right, in order for me to be safe from, let's say, identity theft, somebody's going to need to know where I am at all times.
00:25:02.040So that if somebody is in Walmart trying to pretend to be me, the system will say, nope, we know where Scott is.
00:25:16.040But I think that because we're broke, that we incrementally just made everything better but more expensive, that security will be too expensive, and also the risk of bad things will be higher and higher, and health care will just be literally unaffordable.
00:25:36.020And that the solution for both of those will be massive, voluntary, in quotes, giving up of privacy, because it's the only way to lower your costs.
00:29:02.100You know, you can't just have people say, no, I won't do what you just ordered me to do.
00:29:05.980So, anyway, fired for refusing the perp walk.
00:29:14.580According to John Solomon and Stephen Richards and Just the News, they're reporting that FBI had three informants that were talking about Biden corruption in Ukraine,
00:29:27.120but there was no investigation that anybody can identify.
00:29:31.840So, the FBI had three whistleblowers saying that the Bidens were doing illegal stuff in Ukraine,
00:29:39.760and they decided not to, we think, current information, they decided not to pursue it.
00:29:46.500Do you think there's any reason that they didn't pursue it other than the president was the president?
00:29:53.800Seems to me probably just because the president was going to get them if they did.
00:38:09.580But that doesn't mean that we have a deal.
00:38:11.720It just means that they're going to try to make a little space to make sure there's a deal.
00:38:16.580So, what Hamas wants that looks to me like a non-starter is that they cleverly, it looks like they're going to cleverly say, oh, we don't want any role in the future leadership.
00:38:33.620But what they do want is to be part of the decision making for how some kind of a Palestinian leadership is designed for the whole area.
00:38:44.660And the peace deal that, as I understand it, does not, in the early days, give Gaza any kind of Palestinian leadership or any kind of Hamas involvement.
00:38:58.660And that that's like a pretty hard rule.
00:39:00.640And that it would be some coalition of friendly Arab countries that just want to take some kind of temporary, but it might last a while, some kind of management role of the area, so that someday it could be Palestinian-led, but not in the short run.
00:39:20.560So, it seems to me that Hamas might have a clever plan that goes like this.
00:39:27.640How about we'll be totally peaceful, but we'll just be a useful part of the transition to a Palestinian leadership.
00:39:36.380What would happen if Hamas peacefully became a powerful part of the Palestinian leadership in the future?
00:39:45.960Well, since Hamas seems to be the most bloodthirsty and willing to go the furthest, probably the same thing would happen.
00:39:56.540In the medium term, it wouldn't even be long term.
00:40:00.660In the medium term, they would just reconstitute all their military threat.
00:40:05.520They would kill the people who are peaceful, but ahead of them in politics.
00:40:09.880And they would just take over again, right?
00:40:13.560So, if they exist in any form, it allows them to organize, get weapons, prepare for the next time they try to take over, and we would get nothing.
00:40:25.080So, if you think that's a small deal of who's involved in figuring out what the leadership of that country looks like, it's not a small deal.
00:40:35.340Well, it's the whole deal, and they're completely on opposite sides.
00:40:40.520You can't have absolutely no involvement or power or weapons or anything for Hamas.
00:40:47.560At the same time, Hamas is a key player in reorganizing and rebuilding Gaza.
00:40:53.960You can't have both, and it looks like that might be the stopping point.
00:40:57.360It looks like there would be agreement on hostages, but Hamas says, yeah, we totally agree on this hostage exchange, but only if the field conditions are ready for peace.
00:41:14.740And so, that means that they get to keep their weapons, they get to be part of the solution going forward.
00:41:21.680So, they're not really agreeing to exchange hostages.
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00:42:59.380I think the big winner here might be Israel, because it looks to me like this will be the final proof that Hamas is not serious about a real peace deal.
00:43:08.500Because they're not going to take themselves out of it, and if they have to be taken out of it, they're not going to give up their hostages.
00:43:18.920So I think we're right back where we started.
00:43:22.420But there is people who are smarter than I am are acting optimistic.
00:43:29.180And if they're acting optimistic, it could be.
00:43:32.480It could be the Hamas is, you know, taking their best shot, but they know they're going to have to negotiate back to something like not being involved in the future.
00:44:04.180Russia has attacked Ukraine's, one of their big natural gas facilities.
00:44:11.980So as I'd been predicting, the war has evolved into mostly robots doing the fighting, if you include drones as robots.
00:44:22.760And the most impactful attacks will be on energy infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine.
00:44:30.640So it's getting closer and closer to that old original Star Trek plot that I've never been able to get out of my head because it makes so much sense, but it's so ridiculous.
00:44:42.260And when something makes complete sense, but it's also ridiculous, you can't forget that.
00:44:47.720Do you remember the episode where there was some planet where they were so advanced that they realized they're having.
00:44:57.500And they realized that having wars where you reach trying to kill each other was too uncivilized, but that they couldn't solve stuff without war.
00:45:07.800So you still have to have the war, but you wanted to get rid of the uncivilized part of the war where people are being ripped apart by shrapnel.
00:45:16.260So instead, they would simulate the war with computers so they know who would have won if they had a war.
00:45:23.120And then the losing team has to line up and go into these machines that basically evaporate them.
00:45:30.520So they kind of volunteer to be taken off the face of the earth if their side loses in the simulation.
00:45:38.280And they're all just happily standing in line because they agree with that's their system.
00:45:41.880Well, when I watched the Russia-Ukraine war morph from frontline action, you know, hand-to-hand combat, people blowing people up with shrapnel, and that's all it is in the beginning.
00:45:56.400And it starts to morph to, well, our robots are attacking your people.
00:46:01.520Okay, now your robots are attacking our robots.
00:46:03.860So you've got a robot-robot thing going, kind of like a simulation in a way.
00:46:09.000And then you get to the point where the key targets are not people anymore.
00:46:16.180The key targets are the infrastructure.
00:46:19.980So what would happen if they just said, all right, here's the deal.
00:46:23.500We're going to stop targeting people because it's not working.
00:47:56.180So apparently the, I don't know how they would even know that.
00:47:59.840They think that these cans of corn with explosives in it were part of creating weapons for drones that would be dropped on Poland, Lithuania, and Germany.
00:48:14.640Do you think Russia is literally targeting Poland, Lithuania, and Germany?
00:48:19.180Like directly, like directly, with explosives?
00:48:26.520That doesn't really make sense, like why they would take that kind of a chance.
00:48:31.420I can see them doing lots of flyovers with their, you know, with their drones and trying to unsettle Europe and make them think that they don't have any airspace defense, which they don't, apparently.
00:48:46.560I can't imagine that Germany would start doing explosive things, you know, things blowing up in these, you know, especially if it's a NATO country.
00:49:29.980Probably a little bit and temporarily.
00:49:33.320So I know some of the refineries got knocked out, so you could easily imagine them saying, all right, damn it, it's going to take us four months to fix this refinery, so we'll buy a little gas from our neighbors until we get that fixed.
00:49:48.220It doesn't necessarily mean that Ukraine is bringing Russia to its knees on energy, but it's a little bit of a hint that if they keep doing it, maybe.
00:50:03.980You know, I mean, that does signal something if they're getting their gas from other countries.
00:50:10.480That's not a nothing, but I don't think it's as big as Zelensky wants to make it out to be yet.
00:51:58.860There's also reports, BBC, that Russia is targeting UK military satellites.
00:52:07.700So I guess they try to jam them from the ground, presumably over the Ukraine situation.
00:52:13.780But they also have assets in the air that apparently are following around other countries' satellites and trying to get data from them or jam them.