Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2979 CWSA 10⧸05⧸25

00:00:00.000 come on in we're almost ready cats are ready if you're ready I'm ready

00:00:30.000 good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of human civilization it's called

00:00:35.800 coffee with Scott Adams and you've never had a better time if I sound a little different today

00:00:41.940 it's because I was up all night so I haven't slept yet but uh we'll try to get through this

00:00:50.100 I'll try not to fall asleep but if you'd like to take your experience up to levels that nobody can

00:00:56.040 even understand when they're tiny shiny human brains all you need is a copper mug or a glass

00:01:01.500 attack your chalice design a canteen jug or flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite

00:01:07.820 liquid I like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine of the day

00:01:14.680 the thing that makes everything better it's called the simultaneous sip and it happens now go

00:01:26.040 I've got kind of a FM radio vibe going on now weird voicing hey everybody it's it's about 7 a.m

00:01:40.440 California time all right uh so after the show today Owen Gregorian will be having his

00:01:47.880 spaces event on x so just look for Owen Gregorian when we're done for the after party

00:01:56.020 spaces well I don't know if this was real or not real but there was a video of a Chinese drone show

00:02:07.300 in which they had it looked like thousands of drones in the air at the same time but uh somebody brought

00:02:14.680 a drone jammer so somebody started jamming the drones and there were thousands of them and they started

00:02:23.740 falling from the sky somebody said it might have been a demonstration of drone defense in which case

00:02:31.580 they should have been falling out of the sky but it didn't look like it to me it looked like a prank

00:02:36.540 I saw that in a post by Massimo on x so check it out see what you think look on x and just look for the

00:02:48.220 drone jamming video from China and let me know do you think that looks real it's so hard to tell

00:02:56.380 I think I'm reaching the point where one third of all the stories I talk about will turn out to be you know

00:03:03.740 AI well let's see if I could have guessed this science um so they wanted to see if a psilocybin

00:03:14.540 could help some uh some healthcare workers reduce their depression and burnout how do you think that went

00:03:24.700 about once a week there's a story about psilocybin helping somebody's mental health

00:03:30.300 and 100 percent of the time it works every single time so do you think it worked with healthcare

00:03:38.780 workers and their depression and burnout yes it did yes it did just in case you wonder they could have

00:03:46.140 skipped that and just ask scott eric dolan of psypost was writing about that

00:03:53.420 it makes me wonder is there anything this little simon can't do it seems like it can do it all

00:04:02.780 um according to psypost also karina petrova's writing that a little study was done and they found that

00:04:11.420 a just a few brief chats with an ai if the ai is biased can alter your political opinion

00:04:22.620 now do you believe that do you believe that ai can change your political opinion

00:04:28.380 just by chatting with you for a little while

00:04:30.380 well next time uh just ask me yes it can do you know the um what what is the concept

00:04:41.260 which kind of guarantees that chatting with an ai 0.97

00:04:45.260 will uh be persuasive what is it what is the persuasion concept that just guarantees it

00:04:52.060 the answer is the documentary effect so i always talk about the documentary effect the documentary

00:05:00.220 effect is when you're you're listening to one side of an argument for an extended period of time

00:05:07.580 doesn't matter what the argument is you will be convinced or at least you know people will be

00:05:14.380 more likely to be convinced if they listen to one side of an argument without hearing the other side

00:05:20.460 that's all it is so it doesn't matter if it comes to you in a documentary or you only look at uh the

00:05:29.420 stuff on the bubble and social media or you talk to one biased ai that it was you know was intended to

00:05:37.500 be biased in this example yeah it's a documentary effect of course it works of course it does all you

00:05:44.300 need is one point of view with no counterpoint and then add time that's it time plus one point of view

00:05:55.260 persuasion i'm going to give you a trump persuasion lesson a little bit you're going to like it uh regarding

00:06:03.980 gaza well the uh one of the co-founders of rumba you know the little robot that vacuums your house

00:06:12.700 um says that uh elon musk is in a terrible surprise in for a terrible surprise with his humanoid robots

00:06:21.740 so futurism is writing about this victor tangerman and uh the rumor guy says uh that you can't teach

00:06:31.020 robots how to do things you know with uh with their hands basically and the reason is that the

00:06:39.660 the the hands don't have a feedback mechanism i think that's part of it um but he doesn't believe

00:06:47.100 that you can teach a robot to do stuff by showing it how to do stuff so as in you would never be able

00:06:54.460 to teach it to do the laundry or maybe even uh maybe empty the dishwasher but but teaching it to do the

00:07:02.140 laundry probably never according to one robot maker how about never no you'll never get that because the

00:07:11.340 i i i think his argument is that if you don't have the tactile um the feel that you can't learn with

00:07:19.900 your hands just by watching i don't know about that i would not bet against celan musk who very clearly

00:07:28.140 believes that this will work and he'll be rolling on these robots sometime this year i don't know i'm

00:07:36.300 going to stay skeptical until i'm proven wrong um and my skepticism goes like this

00:07:45.660 if it were possible that in one year we would see robots learning by watching you know watching somebody

00:07:52.860 iron a shirt and then the robot can do it you would already see that if that were going to be on the

00:08:00.700 on the open market in less than a year you'd see the demonstrations today but we don't

00:08:08.700 so i have to conclude that they don't know how to do that will they be able to do it in a year

00:08:14.300 i don't know i it feels like maybe not maybe not we'll see um also in futurism a lot of people are

00:08:29.020 discovering that their their electric bills are going up especially if they live near a data center

00:08:36.140 so if you live near a data center you know that the data centers are pulling more electricity than ever

00:08:43.100 for ai stuff and uh that will make your supply and demand uh equation cost uh cost you more money

00:08:52.540 so apparently if you if you live anywhere near a data center you can get reamed the data centers are

00:09:00.300 going to be um really hit for electricity now here's my question doesn't that mean that you're subsidizing ai

00:09:09.740 it does right so if you live near a data center then that data center becomes an ai you know driving

00:09:19.100 data center suddenly your electric bill goes up i don't know i'll pick a number four hundred dollars

00:09:26.300 per month and what do you get out of it nothing nothing you you're still getting the same amount of

00:09:33.100 electricity just costs you 400 a month more so you tell me why should i not get equity in the ai company

00:09:42.460 i should have equity because i'm literally directly investing in the ai right so i need some reparations

00:09:54.300 or something reparations or something reparations maybe um but that that is genuinely a big problem we

00:10:02.460 we don't assume or i never have that my my contribution to the electrical cost would be

00:10:10.620 anything that i would even think about because it just seems like it's all in the noise but once it

00:10:16.300 doubles your electrical cost you are a major investor in ai no way around it you're a major investor you

00:10:25.100 just didn't ask for it so yeah you should get some equity did you lock the front door check close the

00:10:34.060 garage door yep installed window sensors smoke sensors and hd cameras with night vision no i and

00:10:39.820 you set up credit card transaction alerts a secure vpn for a private connection and continuous monitoring

00:10:44.060 for our personal info on the dark web uh i'm looking into it stress less about security choose

00:10:50.620 security solutions from telus for peace of mind at home and online visit telus.com

00:10:55.660 slash total security to learn more conditions apply uh apparently uh amazon's gonna launch uh or relaunch

00:11:06.140 whatever it is um all of the james bond movies so you can get them all on amazon but uh

00:11:14.060 fans noticed that the guns that james bond often holds on his covers has been deleted from the art

00:11:23.260 so it's just james bond standing like this with his with a handful of nothing where it used to be like

00:11:29.500 that's where his gun would be so can't show that gun now here's my question if they make james bond

00:11:38.060 woke won't that be the opposite of james bond and wasn't his lack of wokeness exactly the thing we

00:11:46.300 liked about him wasn't that the whole point there there are still uh some of the really early ones

00:11:54.460 like from the 60s where where he slaps he slaps his girlfriend in the face you would never see that

00:12:01.980 today uh something tells me they're gonna edit that out too yeah and all of his uh wild womanizing

00:12:12.140 maybe they'll get rid of that too but here's the good news james bond so far is still a white man

00:12:20.380 still a white man i'm pretty sure they're gonna use their ai to replace him with a black woman 0.99

00:12:27.500 any any any day now but at the moment we're still a white man well bad buddy the artist bad buddy as 0.71

00:12:36.380 you know has been selected to do the the halftime show at the super bowl and uh he's puerto rican and

00:12:43.660 the uh which means he's american and uh he sings mostly in spanish so a lot of people were up in arms

00:12:53.180 rar we we don't want no spanish-speaking super bowl give us some american super bowl

00:13:01.900 um but i saw jay-z talking about it because his production group's in charge of the super bowl

00:13:09.500 halftime show and uh he was quite defiant but one thing i didn't know i didn't know that bad buddy is

00:13:17.260 one of the top uh streaming artists in the world did you know that i didn't know he was like in the

00:13:25.740 top three i think he's one of the top streaming artists in the world so given that and given that

00:13:33.180 the super bowl is you know more of a global event than it is than it used to be um makes sense to me it

00:13:41.980 makes sense i mean he's in the top three you know he's sort of in the class um not too far from taylor

00:13:51.020 swift so i don't know yeah you know would it make a difference if you had a rapper and you couldn't

00:13:58.300 understand the single word the rapper said is that going to be that much different than having somebody

00:14:04.780 just sing in spanish it's not that much different so i i tried to get up in arms about this because

00:14:13.260 people seem to be enjoying how mad they were but i i couldn't be bothered this one this one doesn't

00:14:21.020 bother me at all why why not have a puerto rican you know top star in the world i i'm i'm actually

00:14:30.700 kind of curious because i'm not familiar with his work so i'm probably more likely to watch it than

00:14:37.260 not because i want to see what what all the all the noise is about so we'll see um so you know how uh

00:14:47.100 trump brought the uh troops into washington dc and brought the crime down immediately did you believe

00:14:54.540 that did you believe that there would be a somewhat permanent reduction in crime because the the feds

00:15:03.580 were there for what a week or something did that ever make sense to you that the criminals would just

00:15:10.860 stop doing crime or would they wait a few weeks until things calm down and just go back to what they

00:15:18.540 were doing well reuters is getting a little skeptical about the long-term impact in dc um apparently the

00:15:26.860 murders did go down but there's no reason to believe that they'll stay down and uh other crimes didn't

00:15:34.380 really change that much so maybe it feels a lot safer in washington dc but i'll bet you in six months

00:15:42.940 it will look like nothing happened it'll be right back to where it was that's my guess still worth doing

00:15:50.780 you know even if it's only an experiment still worth doing uh still successful but uh i don't think

00:15:58.700 it'll be as big a change as people want speaking of uh sending in the troops the federal judge has

00:16:06.860 stopped trump from using um troops the national guard troops in portland so that's that's been blocked

00:16:15.340 at the moment i think it was a trump appointed judge that blocked that too um and the judge said this is

00:16:22.140 a nation of constitutional law not martial law meanwhile trump is trying to get chicago to um

00:16:32.940 um accept 300 members of the uh of the national guard to uh help with their crime situation but

00:16:42.540 jb pritzker and i think the mayor of um chicago are not in favor of that so trump's option is to

00:16:51.100 federalize them so he can just say well if you're not going to put them there um i will federalize them

00:16:58.460 and put them there myself so that might happen i don't know if there'll be another judge that stops

00:17:05.020 it but it seems likely you know have you ever thought what would be the best form of government

00:17:14.700 like if you really if you could really have just the perfect form of government i'll tell you what it

00:17:21.740 wouldn't be it wouldn't be it wouldn't be a panel of people it wouldn't be a pure democracy that would

00:17:29.420 be a mess it wouldn't be marxism it wouldn't be you know an evil dictator um by far the best form of

00:17:40.220 government if you could get it now the problem is there's no way to guarantee that that's what you're

00:17:46.220 getting but if you could get it the best form of government would be a authoritarian strong man

00:17:53.900 who had your best interests in heart which turns out to be trump is he an authoritarian yes

00:18:04.460 is he a strong man i'd say yes yes he is is he benevolent in the sense that although he's tough

00:18:13.500 um everything he does clearly is for the benefit of the public yes does he does he put himself at

00:18:24.620 personal risk for the benefit of the public yes very much so he's had two assassination attempts that's

00:18:33.580 as much risk as you could put anything at so um while i understand all the criticisms and i understand why

00:18:43.020 people would be wary that it might you know turn into something else i get that but we are experiencing

00:18:51.580 the golden age i hate to tell you but you could not you could not design a better government than a

00:19:01.900 strong leader who is stronger than an ordinary leader stronger than a president

00:19:07.260 and uh is taking every opportunity every every possibility every opening pushing every door

00:19:17.740 you know opening every window um and trying to make stuff happen but doing it transparently right in

00:19:25.260 front of us so we could watch and uh being a second term president so he's got the experience he knows what he's

00:19:33.500 doing now he's got the right staff this is sort of ideal i will go so far as to say that we might never

00:19:42.060 have a government again that's as good as the one we're experiencing right now now obviously it can't

00:19:48.140 it's not magic so it can't do everything it wants to do right away but we could not do better

00:19:55.980 than a strong man trump who likes operating in public and likes to be liked which is important he likes to be liked

00:20:05.980 so that eliminates all the things that might be good for him

00:20:10.540 but we wouldn't like it he just doesn't do those things because he likes to be liked it's the perfect situation 0.98

00:20:17.820 he's an authoritarian strong man kind of a kind of a bastard type but for us he's our bastard right 0.96

00:20:28.140 he's being a bastard for us and he's doing it well i don't think he could do better honestly 0.98

00:20:35.180 and maybe we'll never do better this might be the best presidential situation we'll ever experience or 0.98

00:20:41.820 anybody will ever experience um it's such a unique situation that somebody wants to be liked

00:20:50.300 but also has the that strength and and also that experience at this point so we might never see it

00:20:57.180 again speaking of strong uh trump ordered yet another drug boat coming out of it as well to be blown up and

00:21:07.340 it was so at some point the drug boats are gonna they're gonna either run out of drug boats or run out of

00:21:15.500 people who are willing to get on a drug boat because it's just going to be a suicide suicide sale

00:21:26.300 anyway let's talk about gaza that's the big news so as you know um the gazans or the

00:21:34.140 hamas has acted like they're gonna say yes to the peace deal but they said yes to a different peace

00:21:42.300 deal not the one that was offered so they're still trying to weasel their way into being relevant

00:21:50.940 maybe keeping their weapons a little bit maybe being involved in the government going forward

00:21:56.460 and that's a that's a hard no from israel so i don't think we're actually close to a deal

00:22:07.020 but it still might get done which is what i'm going to talk about a little bit um

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00:22:41.500 so here's what uh here's what trump allegedly said to uh netanyahu according to uh joel pollack

00:22:51.500 writing for breitbart um so trump said that he said bb this is your chance for victory

00:23:00.060 um and he was fined with it trump said he's got to be fined with it he has no choice with me he's got

00:23:07.100 to be fine so trump is basically telling the world and telling that yahoo i'm going to tell you what to 0.54

00:23:14.460 do and then you're going to do it now what other president could even say those words none he's the

00:23:23.500 only president who could say out loud i told him he's got to do this and now he's got to do it no one

00:23:30.460 else you know that right there's no one else who could even say those words and and be taken

00:23:37.020 seriously but trump can he can and uh i i think this is in response to all the people who think

00:23:46.380 israel is the tail wagging the dog and that the us is um sort of following that now who's lead 0.95

00:23:54.780 and this is trump saying um no let me let me explain how this works he's got to do what i tell him to do

00:24:02.460 period that's it i'm going to tell him what to do and he'll do it so i like this i like this this is

00:24:10.460 trump again being the strong man authoritarian that he is and he wants you to know that this smallish 0.68

00:24:18.060 country of israel is not not pushing him around and that he is in fact pushing israel now if he gets

00:24:25.420 this done then i would say he has made his case that he's the one pushing israel if he doesn't get it

00:24:33.500 done and israel decides that they'd rather keep fighting um and then they do well then it's going

00:24:42.700 to start looking a little bit like maybe israel is calling the shots so this is really important in

00:24:49.340 terms of how we think of the relationship between israel and the us if netanyahu does in fact

00:24:56.780 um make a deal in a way that you know all of us see wasn't his first choice you know maybe there's

00:25:03.740 he didn't get everything he wanted that would be really good for trump because it would show that he

00:25:09.660 forced it to happen it would show that he had the control so but if it doesn't happen and it goes the

00:25:16.220 other way it's really going to prove that netanyahu actually does run the country so i mean i'm

00:25:22.780 exaggerating a little bit that's a little bit of hyperbole but this matters everybody's watching

00:25:29.100 this so unless the two of them suddenly act like they're exactly on the same page it's going to look

00:25:36.300 like somebody won and somebody lost between trump and netanyahu so i think that they'll pretend to be

00:25:42.620 on the same page even if they're not to avoid that um i guess uh israel a bunch of nations uh muslim 0.65

00:25:55.580 majority nations are asking israel to withdraw and uh they're thinking that if the fighting stops and

00:26:03.260 israel withdraws to some predetermined line that all the hostages will be released and then they can work

00:26:10.620 on putting together some kind of government and you know repopulating the place do you think that's

00:26:18.220 uh gonna happen do you do you think that hamas is gonna release all the hostages without having a

00:26:26.060 guarantee that they'll have some power or that they'll have some safety or get to keep some weapons

00:26:31.260 or something i don't think so i don't i don't think that they're gonna release any hostages until they get

00:26:38.620 what they want and israel is very clear as is the united states that they're not going to get what

00:26:44.380 they want what they want is some ongoing you know power and control and a seat at the table there's no 0.51

00:26:51.740 way they're going to get that in fact all of the hamas leadership is going to be dead under every scenario

00:27:00.140 if they make a deal they'll give up their weapons and israel will eventually hunt them down and 1.00

00:27:07.580 they'll all have accidents and if they don't give up their weapons israel will hunt them down in their 0.95

00:27:13.980 tunnels and kill them so the hamas leadership they're kind of dead no matter what so you know

00:27:22.220 if they can buy a few days of not being dead by making the hostage thing last longer i feel like they will 0.74

00:27:29.580 so it's hard to imagine that an actual deal will get done but i'm gonna as i said i'll talk to you

00:27:36.780 about trump's persuasion play which is really strong um israel speaking of israel uh there's some reports

00:27:46.700 from reuters danny haifong is writing that uh israel might want to quote mow the grass in iran

00:27:56.220 now if you haven't heard that term in a military context mowing the grass means that you know new

00:28:03.020 terrorists or new bad guys have popped up and they have to go back in and you know just kill the new

00:28:08.460 batch and then wait for another batch to pop up like grass and they'll have to go in and mow the grass

00:28:13.980 again so apparently whatever bombing has already happened in iran um didn't get everything that israel

00:28:22.780 needs a gat so they're thinking about going back in what would happen to the peace negotiations with

00:28:29.100 gaza if israel decided this week to go in and bomb iran again might happen well 0.78

00:28:40.300 it might be looked at as uh trying to derail the uh the gaza thing because israel

00:28:47.820 is sort of has a win-win situation maybe one win would be the peace deal works and that's a pretty

00:28:55.740 big win the other way to win would be the peace deal falls apart and there's no way to resolve it

00:29:03.020 and then they win the hard way they lose their probably lose their hostages but they would

00:29:08.540 eventually have complete control over gaza in the short term and the long term so it's not clear to me

00:29:15.660 that israel or at least netanyahu i won't say israel i'll say netanyahu it's not clear to me he wants

00:29:23.580 this to work um would you is that fair it's not clear that netanyahu not not israel because israel's

00:29:33.740 got a lot of different opinions but i'm not sure netanyahu wants it to work because if it doesn't work

00:29:40.380 he's gonna get everything he wants stay in power um you know get to destroy him completely get to

00:29:49.420 essentially annex it but uh where things are ending now is the the uh the beginning of what would be a

00:29:57.980 two-state solution and that's definitely not what netanyahu wants he doesn't want that second state

00:30:04.220 so we'll see all right let me give you a little trump persuasion lesson i'm going to tell you what

00:30:10.060 he's doing right and oh my god is he doing it right you know just just like you've never seen

00:30:16.940 um doesn't mean it's enough right so i'm going to simultaneously say that what trump is doing is

00:30:25.180 it's just world-class couldn't do better but it might not be enough might not be enough but uh

00:30:32.620 maybe you'll learn something in the process number one if you want to be persuasive credibility

00:30:39.740 boy you can't beat that credibility means that you have a track record of doing things that maybe

00:30:46.220 were hard or at least things you said you were going to do if you've got that going for you that

00:30:52.780 just is so persuasive i would say that that's elon musk's superpower among others he's got a few

00:30:59.340 superpowers but one of them is that if elon musk says i could make a robot and it'll be a good robot

00:31:07.340 the fact that there's nothing about that that seems real to me i still trust him

00:31:15.260 i still trust that he knows how to make a robot even though i can't i just have trouble imagining it'll

00:31:21.500 work in the short run but he's so credible because of the things he's done already that looked impossible

00:31:30.220 um he's persuasive now trump has that situation with trying to get a peace deal because look at what

00:31:37.500 he's done to become credible the first thing he had to do is be the word the biggest badass

00:31:44.620 right you're not going to get a peace deal if you're the peace guy does that make sense if you're

00:31:51.020 the war guy you can get a peace deal because people really want to stay away from the war guy

00:31:57.100 whoo war guy war guy so i settle down settle down war guy okay okay we'll give you some peace

00:32:04.380 so look at what trump has done from his first term as a did the mother of all bombs

00:32:12.140 uh he took care of solemany he he did that highly successful strike with israel on the iran nuclear

00:32:20.540 sites now he's blowing up venezuelan drug boats um and then he he changes the department of defense

00:32:28.620 to the department of war you make sure it's funded and and he uses the word lethality over and over

00:32:35.500 again we're going to make it lethal lethal getting rid of the woke um and all of those things create a 1.00

00:32:44.220 picture that says trump doesn't bluff that's really important when he says if you don't get this done

00:32:53.340 there will be hell to pay he means there will be hell to pay that that's not just a bluff and it's

00:33:00.940 because he has credibility because he's created this track record on top of that um and i've never

00:33:08.780 seen anybody accomplish this this is one of the greatest accomplishments and persuasion you'll ever

00:33:14.780 see we'll see if it pays off but here's the accomplishment on one hand he looks like the

00:33:21.500 dictator authoritarian strong man who is willing to do things like kill solomon and you know drop bombs on

00:33:29.660 iran so he's that guy at the same time even i saw his critics on msnbc fully admit that trump

00:33:41.180 unambiguously and honestly hates war that's his critics his critics have completely accepted that trump is the

00:33:52.620 most anti-war president we've ever seen at the same time that he's the toughest

00:33:59.660 you know the most badass he's the most badass military president and also by far by far the most

00:34:10.300 peace loving um will risk his life for peace will put everything on the line for peace now he claims he

00:34:20.300 has seven peace deals now you could argue how many of those seven he really made a difference you know

00:34:27.980 indian pakistan might say well you know i think that was going to happen anyway but it's very important

00:34:34.540 that he creates the image that he's he was at least an important process in seven different peace deals

00:34:44.140 now it doesn't have to be a hundred percent true it just has to be in your head

00:34:49.580 so you you're holding your head at the same time these two opposites he's the baddest ass badass military 0.80

00:34:57.180 guy and he will definitely whack you if you don't play along he will definitely take you out he'll take 0.96

00:35:04.060 out your little drug boats he'll he'll take out your whole country if he has to but he will he will fight 0.96

00:35:11.660 harder for peace than anybody ever has now how do you pull that off how do you how are you both people

00:35:21.020 only trump trump trump's the only person who could be both of those people at the same time

00:35:26.700 and completely sell it i completely believe he's the baddest badass i completely believe that he wants

00:35:34.220 peace more than any president ever has that's amazing so um and this also gets me to the uh next

00:35:46.220 persuasion point deadlines deadlines are absolutely necessary when you have some kind of open-ended

00:35:54.780 situation and a war is by its nature an open-ended situation so what trump does is something that

00:36:04.220 probably learned doing construction because if you say if your if your builder says oh we ran into

00:36:12.060 some problems it's going to take us longer than we thought if you don't get him to commit to a new

00:36:17.660 deadline it'll never get done it'll just never get done you got to say all right you're fired if you

00:36:25.100 don't get this done by the end of the week and that's sort of what trump did with uh hamas um he was a

00:36:32.620 little weak on giving him a real deadline deadline but then he finally said if you don't have this

00:36:38.940 worked out by sunday there'll be all hell to pay yeah the deadline is a persuasion factor you have to

00:36:47.100 have a deadline otherwise nothing happens nothing ever happens without a deadline so he knows that so he

00:36:55.100 puts a deadline on it and sure enough as soon as he puts the deadline on it stuff starts to happen

00:37:00.780 deadlines really really matter especially in negotiations the other thing he does is what

00:37:08.460 i call the you could call the biggest gap persuasion he makes the biggest difference between making him

00:37:15.740 happy and making him unhappy um so if you make him unhappy all hell will break loose but if you make him

00:37:24.780 happy and make peace then he will help you rebuild this uh jewel of the middle east it won't just be

00:37:33.740 oh maybe we can get back to where we were no it'll be way better it'll be better than anything you can even

00:37:39.500 imagine the the quality of life there eventually would be like spectacular the economy would be better the

00:37:47.900 danger would be good danger would be gone so he paints a picture where if you if you don't play

00:37:54.140 along there's gonna be hell to pay and he can back it up because he has credibility but he makes sure that you

00:38:01.340 know it's not just about avoiding the bad thing it's it's you've got this good thing that's so good it's just so good you

00:38:11.500 should want it even if you weren't escaping the bad thing but if you put them together you've got a

00:38:17.740 really bad thing that you could escape but you're not just escaping you're getting to this great thing

00:38:24.700 this great future so that's another technique you want the biggest difference between making you happy

00:38:32.860 doing what you want and not doing what you want maximum nobody does that better he is the number one

00:38:40.140 best person and maximizing the distance between make me happy and don't make me happy and he does

00:38:46.140 it with everything so it's not an accident you see him do it with everything really

00:38:51.980 and then lastly he has a vision so the vision um gets everybody to focus on the end point

00:39:01.580 and i think that makes things which seemed impossible suddenly become possible because everybody's

00:39:08.220 thinking thinking about it you have to get people to honestly imagine and visualize an end point of

00:39:16.060 peace you know everything working out or it'll never happen so he makes sure that you can imagine it

00:39:23.020 he makes you think it's possible when when hamas responded at first and said oh yeah we're you know

00:39:32.380 we're okay with this peace deal as long as you know we have power and everything to me it looked like

00:39:38.460 there was no chance because hamas was still asking for more than they would ever get which is to stay in

00:39:45.180 power and but but what's interesting is that trump acted like it was close to a deal which is brilliant

00:39:58.620 because if if trump acts like acts like it's really close even if the reality is that it's not close

00:40:07.900 it makes it close because people's brains will sort of automatically be attracted to whatever they

00:40:16.220 think about and they're visualizing so he makes you think about and visualize wow we're almost there

00:40:22.300 we almost got a deal we're well we're right there we're right there we're not right there we're not

00:40:30.140 because the the biggest thing is still in dispute what happens to hamas it's the biggest thing so

00:40:37.980 but the fact that he treats it like you're almost there brings along a lot of people and and they go huh

00:40:45.900 he is very credible he did get seven deals done ish um maybe he knows more than we do oh my goodness

00:40:55.420 now i can imagine that this could happen for the first time how hard would it be to ever imagine

00:41:01.820 that there could be a sort of a really good base of peace in the middle east it's almost impossible to

00:41:08.860 imagine isn't it but what did trump do trump is allowing us to imagine it for the first time

00:41:18.060 i would say that i'm imagining it for the first time i i just imagined that it wasn't possible and

00:41:24.300 they would just fight forever but now i wouldn't maybe i wouldn't place a big bet on it but i can

00:41:32.380 totally imagine it and you have to get people to imagine the thing before the thing can happen success

00:41:40.700 we we can now imagine the thing do you know how big a deal that is that we can imagine that this

00:41:47.020 could work just imagine and i'm not even talking about getting it done that's a whole other level

00:41:52.940 but even to get to the point where all the people involved all of them are now imagining it possible

00:42:00.940 that's only trump he's the only one who could do that nobody else could do that

00:42:07.740 maybe an elon musk could do it if he were in that job

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00:43:13.580 trump is also treating it like it's almost a sure thing

00:43:18.460 which is even better instead of just saying well you can kind of imagine it might work he's way beyond

00:43:25.260 that he's already treating it like oh yeah we're gonna get this done and i told bb he's gonna have

00:43:31.500 to do this see how that all fits together make sure you imagine it and then he tells you that he's gonna

00:43:37.900 make them do it and and because he's credible you say can he do that can he can he just make netanyahu say yes

00:43:46.060 yes now you can imagine it i don't know if he can but i can imagine it and that's a big big step because

00:43:54.940 other people are imagining it too if everybody's imagining it you get there but my favorite thing

00:44:00.940 besides the fact that he can hold out that gaza will be rebuilt to be some jewel of the middle east 0.93

00:44:07.740 that's visual and gets you to think about the prize but also this could be the beginning of

00:44:15.020 a permanent expansion of the abraham of course it could be a real good model of all the countries

00:44:22.700 working together productively to get the gaza thing you know righted and that would be hugely valuable

00:44:29.740 for the abraham accords you know so that all all the other arab countries and israel figure out how to

00:44:37.180 work together productively and maybe that expands so he's got that going too but by far the best thing

00:44:44.380 is that um we all talk about the nobel prize if this happens he the nobel prize is making you think past

00:44:53.900 the sale which he he's a genius at he's making you think past the sale let me ask this how many of you

00:45:03.580 have thought huh if he gets this done i wonder if he'll get a nobel peace prize right if you're thinking

00:45:12.940 about whether he will get the nobel peace prize or they'll try to you know screw him out of it because

00:45:20.140 he's just not who they want to win it you're already thinking past he got to be you got a peace deal

00:45:25.660 perfect who else does that you know if you don't understand him you just say oh that narcissist he

00:45:35.260 just wants a he just wants a nobel peace prize well he definitely wants a nobel peace prize who wouldn't

00:45:42.460 everybody wants a nobel peace prize so of course he wants one of course he does but he has to earn it

00:45:50.860 he's gonna have to earn it and you know he's gonna try so i love the fact that he makes us

00:45:57.900 think about the nobel peace prize other people would have an ego problem where they say no that's

00:46:04.540 too embarrassing i i can't say out loud that i should have gotten a nobel peace prize you can't 0.99

00:46:11.500 say that out loud because people just think you're some kind of a you know stuck up narcissistic jerk or 0.97

00:46:18.460 something but have i ever taught you that trump uses his ego like a tool it's not a flaw it's a tool 0.99

00:46:29.180 he can turn it up and he can turn it down and uh he turned it up for the nobel peace prize so that we

00:46:39.820 all think about it and now we're thinking past the sale if he didn't need it maybe he would turn it down

00:46:46.300 but but watching him work is is truly is just breathtaking there there's nobody who could have

00:46:53.100 created this entire uh i'll call it a structure from what you think about him to you know how he's

00:47:01.500 framed it it's all a structure that he's created and and is um the way he's worked with his partners

00:47:08.060 even if they brought jared did so i guess jared is going to be part of this now what what do you think

00:47:13.900 when jared gets involved well when i see jared get involved my brain says oh my goodness he's bringing

00:47:21.260 in the a team he's bringing in a finisher jared is a finisher he's bringing in the finisher do you see

00:47:29.740 do you see what that does too it makes you say oh wait we're in the finish mode like because he brought

00:47:38.140 it in the finisher so every bit of this is just freaking brilliant honestly if if trump gets it

00:47:47.100 done and i'm not i'm still not at a point where i'm going to predict that he can get it done because

00:47:52.860 there are too many weasels over there but if he gets this done oh boy does this deserve a nobel peace

00:48:00.700 prize i mean it really deserves one because what what he's created already to even give us a chance

00:48:09.500 is spectacular it's spectacular all right cat

00:48:16.780 well another good news our liquid natural gas exports hit a record high in september just news is

00:48:23.900 reporting on that so that's good whenever we're exporting maximum amount of energy things are

00:48:32.060 looking good remember that story about the uh there was a room that was found that had all these uh cell

00:48:39.260 phone sim cards and it was uh presumed that um some foreign entity was using it to crash our cell network

00:48:49.740 if if they ever wanted to crash it and then it was found that it was a chinese entity so that the 0.69

00:48:57.500 chinese had built a structure to crash our cell phones in an emergency and then to update it now we 1.00

00:49:07.260 learned that they had a second facility that has been discovered so they had two full facilities that had no

00:49:15.020 other purpose couldn't be used for anything else except to jam up our cell networks during an emergency

00:49:23.020 because you know why else would you do it you would only do it if you could really mess with us

00:49:28.940 so how do we just act like that didn't happen you know is is is there so much spycraft going on between

00:49:38.620 the us and china that that we just look at this and go ah well you know nice try glad we caught you

00:49:46.620 um we're doing things with you and you know you haven't caught us yet so business as usual

00:49:55.020 anyway we'll see um but it doesn't seem like we could just have a normal relationship with them when

00:50:00.940 they're doing that i mean they literally put major physical assets in the united states for no other 0.91

00:50:08.940 reason than sabotage how do you let that go now i realize we need to buy their shit but how do you let 0.93

00:50:17.340 that go i don't know well there's a story that i was i almost didn't want to talk about but there's 0.98

00:50:25.260 this guy running for virginia attorney general apparently he said some things in some emails

00:50:31.580 that got out that were pretty bad he was fantasizing about his opponent's children dying because he says

00:50:40.300 if his opponent's children died um then he might change his mind about some of his policies because

00:50:46.940 without pain people don't change and then he also said he made a joke that if his opponent

00:50:53.820 um were if he saw his opponent and hitler and i don't know stalin or somebody and he only had two

00:51:02.220 bullets uh he would put both of the bullets in his opponent and let hitler and stalin live which is 0.85

00:51:09.020 you know sort of an old joke just a form of an old joke but um the his uh text messages got out

00:51:17.500 and now people are calling for him to drop out here's my um problem with this i have a rule

00:51:26.780 that if it's a private conversation that the person who released it is responsible for it

00:51:34.940 meaning that the things that we say privately um we say them privately because we don't want them

00:51:41.900 anywhere else and we say them privately because we think the person we're talking to can handle it

00:51:47.660 and might you know put it in the proper context and you know that you're not serious about it you

00:51:52.540 just have some hyperbole or something but when it gets out in the wild um all the context is lost

00:52:01.900 and i usually say in these situations that the person responsible is the leaker whoever leaked it

00:52:09.420 the leaker should get fired for revealing a private conversation so i'm very mad at whoever leaked it

00:52:18.620 very mad um if it were just something unpleasant i would probably say you know what those are private

00:52:26.940 thoughts i'm not going to judge them for a private thought but these are really bad private thoughts

00:52:32.620 these are not normal these are not normal private thoughts these are violent and it does suggest

00:52:43.740 some kind of bias toward violence against conservatives at a time when conservatives are

00:52:50.300 worried about violence against them and so the timing could not be worse for saying something like that

00:52:57.180 so i'm gonna i hate to do it but i'm gonna violate my own rule and say that even though this was a private

00:53:05.740 thought that happened to be expressed to one private person um this one you can't you can't let this go

00:53:14.700 you can't let this one go this one's too dangerous he's he's gotta go

00:53:19.580 if they elect this guy big mistake

00:53:28.140 well apparently the conservatives over in the uk the conservative party they're uh pushing to do some

00:53:36.060 kind of an ice-like uh organization to deport um a whole bunch of people they want to deport so but i

00:53:45.500 guess there are at least two parties over there that want to are anti-immigration but they want to get 0.63

00:53:51.500 as many as 750 000 migrants shipped back in five years and they would call that the removals force

00:53:59.660 politico is reporting on this so i don't know do you do you think that uh do you think that the uk

00:54:08.780 is going full donald trump and that they realize that they're gonna have to do something about the

00:54:14.220 migration situation or you know close up the country because it's they're done 1.00

00:54:21.420 i feel i feel like the existence of trump makes it possible for the uk to adjust because if if they

00:54:30.220 see that he did and that the us is getting on a firmer footing and you know recovering from over

00:54:37.580 migration if they see that we can do it they're probably going to be able to do it but if it

00:54:45.900 doesn't work anywhere if there's no country that you know gets tough and ships people back it just

00:54:52.220 doesn't happen anywhere um they probably won't do it either so this is another one of those situations

00:54:58.780 where the the the shadow or the vibration or the secondary effect from trump being trump

00:55:06.780 probably helps other countries a lot and this would be one example of that so there's a story

00:55:16.620 um i think the daily skeptic had this story a few months ago um but the met office that's in great

00:55:24.780 britain i guess that's where they do their uh their climate change calculations the med med office but

00:55:33.020 apparently this is so funny um that data for more than 30 percent of its temperature sites are just made up

00:55:45.180 so over time a lot of the temperature measuring sites either go bad or they go out of service or they

00:55:55.900 maybe somebody builds an airport next to it so it's not it's no longer reliable for the temperature but uh

00:56:03.500 the over in the uk they've been blamed with fabricating data for more than 30 percent of their reporting sites

00:56:11.420 it's if you're making up the now of course they would say that their estimates are responsible

00:56:19.500 so they would say something like well this temperature usually matched you know this other

00:56:24.540 temperature so since we don't have access to this temperature we'll just say it's continued to match

00:56:31.100 this other temperature so i mean if you did a few of them you know a few i'd say well i mean maybe you

00:56:39.900 could have left them out but it's just a few but if 30 of them don't exist and you're estimating them

00:56:47.820 you don't think there's any subjectivity in the estimates of course there is of course there's

00:56:52.700 subjectivity they have to decide what they're going to base the guests on so it's not science

00:56:59.900 and you know uh this is why i enjoy saying uh wait wait until you find out about climate models

00:57:07.820 it's way more fun to not spend any time defending how it's going to turn out just say

00:57:15.100 wait until you find out you've got a big surprise coming

00:57:19.740 now by the way i do not have to be a climatologist or a psychologist or a scientist to uh to know in

00:57:27.740 advance that the temperature measurements would be bogus all you have to do is have experience in the

00:57:33.980 real world anybody who had real world experience especially in big organizations should have known

00:57:42.140 that the temperature stuff was sketchy

00:57:46.540 that was the most knowable obvious fact and all you had to do is have experience in completely other

00:57:54.860 realms you don't have to have any experience in science or climate to know that if you have that

00:58:02.460 many people and that many measuring devices over that much time and that level of complexity

00:58:08.540 somebody's making stuff up every time somebody's making stuff up all right there's a story about a

00:58:19.580 professor who got put on leave for some facebook comments about uh charlie kirk's murder daily

00:58:26.620 mills reporting this samantha rutt and uh she referred referred to dangerous white men so it's a kansas

00:58:35.020 professor she's a black woman in case you want to get all the contacts here and uh her name is new shell 1.00

00:58:44.220 chance and she's an assistant psychology professor or was i guess um and when charlie kirk first got shot

00:58:53.420 she posted me thinks the word karma is appropriate sad day all around well at least she said it was sad

00:59:01.820 and then later she said um

00:59:07.580 she posted again she said uh but when we tell you all this statistically white american men are the most 0.98

00:59:15.420 dangerous animals on the planet were wrong let's not be hasty they say so she was defending her opinion 0.99

00:59:22.940 that white american men are the most dangerous animals on the planet hmm should i be mad that she's 0.95

00:59:30.060 calling me an animal i'm gonna say no because i'm an animal yeah humans are animals close enough 0.99

00:59:36.940 um you know i again i have a mixed feeling on this because i want her to have free speech

00:59:48.300 and was that not free speech um so i i really don't like it when people lose jobs over uh even ugly

00:59:57.740 opinions but here's here's why you know i understand that she has to you know she has to pay for that 1.00

01:00:04.700 comment but um her belief about charlie kirk is entirely based on things that she was not responsible

01:00:17.020 for meaning that she saw things on social media she saw people she trusted having opinions about them

01:00:23.980 and she adopted those opinions now those opinions are completely wrong you know he wasn't the bad guy

01:00:31.740 you know devil that people said but if he had been how bad would that comment be suppose he had been just a

01:00:43.100 horrible monster would would you feel bad if somebody said oh i don't mind that the horrible monster had a bad

01:00:51.180 end it wouldn't be so bad right so the the way you react to her is is based on something that she was

01:01:01.740 duped on she was duped she was duped into thinking he was a devil and so she thought it would be safe to

01:01:09.740 say well you know i guess that's what happens to the devil but not knowing that to half the country he was

01:01:16.940 closer to an angel you know she just walked into the buzzsaw so how much of that was her fault

01:01:24.700 she clearly she lived in a bubble because she thought that saying that out loud you know would 1.00

01:01:31.980 be consequence free apparently um so that was you know maybe that was her fault but she's not the one 1.00

01:01:38.860 who created the hoax that charlie kirk was a bad guy she didn't create that she was a victim of it and then

01:01:47.740 she just reacted in a way that somebody would if they heard that you know hitler had died right

01:01:56.300 i don't know so i feel like in the real world you know of course there's going to be consequences for

01:02:03.100 saying that opinion out loud but on the other hand she's a little bit of a victim

01:02:08.140 a little bit of a victim not enough you know for forgiveness but she's a little bit of a victim

01:02:15.500 um there's meanwhile over in ukraine uh ukraine struck one of russia's biggest oil refineries again

01:02:26.940 and uh apparently russia did massive aerial attacks on um some oil refineries uh or what is it uh some of

01:02:38.300 their uh gas production or something in in uh ukraine so it looks like russia

01:02:45.420 russia's play is to make it really cold in ukraine so winter's coming so it looks like russia's play

01:02:53.420 is to make sure the ukrainians feel the fear and that they're gonna freeze to death and it looks like 0.50

01:03:00.140 zelensky's strategy in ukraine is to take out the energy production in russia until the economy

01:03:09.660 is is is reeling and uh there's long lines for gas and maybe that gets the public against budin but it

01:03:18.140 looks like we know the play now and as i've been saying it looks like they're not going to bother

01:03:25.500 trying to kill humans because killing humans hasn't worked so they're going to go after assets now

01:03:31.980 so anyway um there's a report in interesting engineering that over in china they've built a

01:03:42.380 a mock-up of the taiwan capital of taipei and the reason they built a model it's a full-scale model

01:03:51.580 is so they can practice conquering uh taiwan so so they've got a uh a full mock-up of the city streets

01:04:01.740 around you know like the capitol building and you know the important buildings in the city for when

01:04:08.220 they capture them so if you're wondering is china serious about you know invading taiwan yes they 1.00

01:04:19.180 they built an entire model and they're practicing on it yeah that sounds pretty serious to me

01:04:25.500 um i don't i think that they won't do it when trump's president because they're patient you know

01:04:32.860 that's one of their great virtues the chinese are very patient so wouldn't it be crazy for them to

01:04:39.340 do it when trump is president they just have to sort of wait you know get a get a weaker president

01:04:45.980 someday it won't be jd vance he'd be a problem too but maybe they get a democrat someday so worth worth

01:04:54.460 waiting all right um i remind you that uh owen gregorian has a spaces event

01:05:02.860 that will be firing up any minute now um once he's got a chance to fire it up uh i'm done now

01:05:09.580 but i'm going to say a few words privately to my beloved um subscribers on locals

01:05:17.340 and i hope you liked my fm voice today all right everybody i will see all of you tomorrow

01:05:25.420 same time same place and locals coming at you privately

01:05:32.860 you

01:06:02.860 Thank you.

01:06:32.860 Thank you.

01:07:02.860 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - October 05, 2025

Episode 2979 CWSA 10⧸05⧸25

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